Okafor or Kaminsky for Player of the Year?

[NM Duke Fan]

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/eye-on-college-basketball/25083829/is-okafor-or-kaminsky-leading-the-player-of-the-year-race-right-now

"Simply put, Kaminsky is terrific and has been all season -- proof being how he's leading a top-10 team in points per game (17.7), rebounds per game (8.3), blocks per game (1.6) and field goal percentage (54.4). He's been a worthy so-called face of the sport, and all of these things are reasons why I'll never call somebody stupid for picking Kaminsky over Okafor.

But picking Okafor over Kaminsky isn't stupid, either."


As a dedicated Duke fan since the late-80's, my vote would go to ....

Kaminsky, for his overall game.

[Henderson]

You could be right, but Kaminski doesn't have nearly the draft stock, if that means anything. And it may not. What do NBA scouts and GMs know anyway? Just another data point.

[Kedsy]

You could be right, but Kaminski doesn't have nearly the draft stock, if that means anything. And it may not. What do NBA scouts and GMs know anyway? Just another data point.

I don't even think it's a data point. Draft stock and POY consideration are two almost entirely unrelated things.

[NM Duke Fan]

You could be right, but Kaminski doesn't have nearly the draft stock, if that means anything. And it may not. What do NBA scouts and GMs know anyway? Just another data point.

I would agree with the NBA scouts regarding the next level. Okafor is a freshman with incredible potential, with some inside and post moves that are already better than more than a few NBA interior players. A real gift which he has worked so very hard to further develop.

Kaminsky is a better defender, free throw shooter, outside shooter, and even passer. But he is a senior, who has had time to work on his game!

[jipops]

Why not Cauley-Stein for POY? I don't think there is a more dominant defensive presence in college basketball and he's been very efficient on offense.

[Dukehky]

Um... Okafor.

[conmanlhughes]

Whats gonna kill Okafor in this is his abysmal defense. I don't think they would take that into consideration as much as offense, but if Okafor finished the year strong and plays even just average defense, he should win.

[Eternal Outlaw]

Whats gonna kill Okafor in this is his abysmal defense. I don't think they would take that into consideration as much as offense, but if Okafor finished the year strong and plays even just average defense, he should win.

Didn't hold back Jimmer from winning and Jimmer made even a terrible defender look all world in comparison.

Defense can be a plus to win the POY but I don't think it holds people back.

[mapei]

Good point above re Cauley-Stein. I love Jah's offense (but for the truly horrid FT shooting) but, given Quinn's performances lately, I'm not positive I would pick Jah for Duke's POY.

[duketaylor]

Draft stock has nothing to do with it. Who's the best player in the country? (That we see regularly) and plays for a very good/great team? Who dominates the NCAA game? So far this year it's Oak. Not over, yet, but close. Kaminsky is very good/great. Tomorrow against MSU, right? Kaminsky and Wisky just lost at Md.
Didn't help his cause. Tomorrow against MSU could help. But Oak had a decent game today!!

[johnb]

Good point above re Cauley-Stein. I love Jah's offense (but for the truly horrid FT shooting) but, given Quinn's performances lately, I'm not positive I would pick Jah for Duke's POY.

do you mean Justise? or Tyus? though you could also mean Quinn. We have a terrific team.

I've only watched one complete Wisconsin game, and, in that one, they lost.

Okafor, not surprisingly, gets my vote. Here's to Kaminsky getting 8 points and 3 rebounds in a loss to Michigan State.

[yancem]

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/eye-on-college-basketball/25083829/is-okafor-or-kaminsky-leading-the-player-of-the-year-race-right-now

"Simply put, Kaminsky is terrific and has been all season -- proof being how he's leading a top-10 team in points per game (17.7), rebounds per game (8.3), blocks per game (1.6) and field goal percentage (54.4). He's been a worthy so-called face of the sport, and all of these things are reasons why I'll never call somebody stupid for picking Kaminsky over Okafor.

But picking Okafor over Kaminsky isn't stupid, either."


As a dedicated Duke fan since the late-80's, my vote would go to ....

Kaminsky, for his overall game.

Except that Okafor is leading a top 5 team in points per game (18.4), rebounds per game (9.4), blocks per game (1.4) and field goal percentage (66.5). All of which are better numbers than Kaminsky (except the blocks which is very close) and Duke beat Wisconsin. Now there are other factors like defense, free throw shooting and the fact that Kaminsky is also a solid 3 pt shooter but what is claimed as being proof doesn't hold much weight from my perspective.

[juise]

Here's to Kaminsky getting 8 points and 3 rebounds in a loss to Michigan State.

It was a nice thought. ;)

[ChillinDuke]

Granted I haven't watched a ton of Wisconsin games, but it strikes me that Kaminsky is a consistently excellent player. But he doesn't dominate games.

Okafor dominates games. On offense, he is consistently excellent - just like Kaminsky. However, unlike Kaminsky, Okafor is often dominant, just schooling people.

Don't get me wrong, the race is close. But I think Okafor is truly otherworldly at times. While I feel Kaminsky is just a shade short of otherworldly.

- Chillin

[wilko]

Kaminsky, for his overall game.

I would favor this logic and going with a Senior, IF we did not have a dog in the fight.
But we do; so Oak w/o any hesitation.

[rsvman]

It seems people don't think much about defense in these discussions. After the VaTach game, which was Okafor's worst defensive performance of the year, ESPN led with this headline "Okafor terrific in Duke win over Virginia Tech."
I honestly think people who are thinking Kaminsky over Okafor are doing so largely because of Kaminsky's range as a shooter.

[OldPhiKap]

Is there a more dominant player this year than Oak? I really like Kaminsky's game -- but Jahzilla cannot be defended heads up.

[NM Duke Fan]

Is there a more dominant player this year than Oak? I really like Kaminsky's game -- but Jahzilla cannot be defended heads up.

I totally agree, he usually cannot be stopped one on one, phenomenal post moves like I have rarely seen in college, or even the NBA these days.

It will come down to the overall criteria that voters use, and their relative weightings.

Kaminsky had a 31-point, 8-rebound, 3-block, 3-assist, 2-steal performance against MSU this weekend, which I am sure got some people's attention.

I think the race is a bit of a toss up, maybe similar to Reddick vs. Morrison in 2006,,,

[NM Duke Fan]

Tried to edit my post but the 15 minute deadline had expired:

Here is a viewpoint from someone with some clout:

Kaminsky is "no question the best player in the country this year," Izzo said.

He called Kaminsky the best player that he had seen in the league since Glenn Robinson starred at Purdue in the 1990s.

"He's the most versatile kid that our league has seen in a long, long time," Izzo said about Kaminsky.

[Indoor66]

Tried to edit my post but the 15 minute deadline had expired:

Here is a viewpoint from someone with some clout:

Kaminsky is "no question the best player in the country this year," Izzo said.

He called Kaminsky the best player that he had seen in the league since Glenn Robinson starred at Purdue in the 1990s.

"He's the most versatile kid that our league has seen in a long, long time," Izzo said about Kaminsky.

Sooooooooooooooooo? Izzo has an interest in puffing the Big # (whatever it is today). That is hardly difinitive.

[NM Duke Fan]

Sooooooooooooooooo? Izzo has an interest in puffing the Big # (whatever it is today). That is hardly difinitive.

I agree and recognized that fact myself regarding his having a dog in the fight so to speak. Izzo, however, is one of the most respected coaches in the country, and for good reason. Therefore, I suspect his comments may end up having at least some energetic impact on the perception psychology and resulting beliefs of some voters...

[J_C_Steel]

I have to go with Kaminsky simply due to the fact that Okafor is an outright liability on the defensive end of the floor. It's not just his post defense; it's his complate lack of awareness when it comes to slashers and weak-side defensive rotation.

If Okafor can improve even to "below average" on defense, I'd go with him. And I'm REALLY hoping that Okafor can get to that level, because that would turn this Duke team into a true national championship contender. (I know most perceive them as that right now, but I don't think this team can beat Kentucky without Okafor improving his defense.)

[flyingdutchdevil]

Okafor has more potential. Okafor will be the better NBA player. Okafor will be #1 pick in the draft. All points that mean nothing for NPOY.

Offensively, I think both players are productive, but Okafor has a slight edge on Kaminsky due to his dominance in one part of the floor versus Kaminsky's strong game everywhere on the floor. Would you rather have Okafor with the ball or Kaminsky with the ball with 10 seconds to go and you're down by 1?

Definitely, I don't think it's close. Rebounding aside, Okafor just doesn't do that good of a job of protecting the paint of playing his man one-on-one. Kaminsky, while not elite, is that much better.

So, IMO, due to the spread in D being larger than the spread in O, I would have to go with Kaminsky.

[wgl1228]

I don't hear many people commenting on the weakness of the Big 10 this year and the fact that Kaminsky saw very little double teams compared to Okafor. I wish they would have co-poy because this is the year for it. People just don't like to go with the front runner so they jumped on the Kaminsky bandwagon.

[tux]

I don't hear many people commenting on the weakness of the Big 10 this year and the fact that Kaminsky saw very little double teams compared to Okafor. I wish they would have co-poy because this is the year for it. People just don't like to go with the front runner so they jumped on the Kaminsky bandwagon.

Kaminsky can have the NPOY award. I'm hoping Okafor wins FF MVP ;)

Honestly, the award would be nice, but it has no bearing on Okafor's future. (Not saying that is being stated here, just pointing out that fact.) Also, IMO, making first team AA would be a big enough accomplishment for a freshman, whether he runs 1st or 2nd in the NPOY race.

Related: I'm wondering if Winslow continues his current tear, if he sneaks onto any AA teams (2nd or 3rd). Probably a long shot, but he's definitely playing like a top-15 player right now.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Kaminsky can have the NPOY award. I'm hoping Okafor wins FF MVP ;)

Honestly, the award would be nice, but it has no bearing on Okafor's future. (Not saying that is being stated here, just pointing out that fact.) Also, IMO, making first team AA would be a big enough accomplishment for a freshman, whether he runs 1st or 2nd in the NPOY race.

Related: I'm wondering if Winslow continues his current tear, if he sneaks onto any AA teams (2nd or 3rd). Probably a long shot, but he's definitely playing like a top-15 player right now.

I think it's safe to say that Okafor, like Jabari, will be on the AA team. Not definitive, but absolutely probable.

The problem with Winslow's inclusion is that there are two other players on Duke who can also be a potential AA: Cook and Tyus. IMO, both don't have the potential of Winslow, but both have been absolutely vital to the team's success. And, gun to my head, I'd like to see Quinn receive praise as a AA (if I had to choose). I think his leadership and potent scoring has made him our second banana. Of course, that is highly debatable.

[NM Duke Fan]

But you're assuming that future potential should be factored into it. And it absolutely shouldn't. Offensively, both players have similar stats. Okafor is more effective and arguably the better scorer, but that's half of the equation. How about the defensive half, where Kaminsky clearly has an advantage (and Kaminsky isn't even that elite of a defender)?

Regarding offense, Okafor has a major achille's with his free throw shooting and the possibility of a hack a Jah strategy. Kaminsky does not. Also Kaminsky swished 3 treys in this last game, and has some decent post moves if you watch some highlights.

BTW, don't assume that Okaforis an absolute sure lock for the number one pick if he declares. There are a few NBA scouts who think a certain 6'11" player from Kentucky may have the better long term potential, hits close to 80% on free throws, plays excellent defense, good outside game as well. Could become one heck of an NBA stretch four... There are also concerns about Okafor's lack of lateral food speed for defense, which can only be improved so much with drills.

If posters are not interested in who will be the POY that is fine. I think it is a great honor, and an interesting contest and discussion, especially this year.

I love this Duke team and program, but I also don't want to view everything through dark blue glasses.

[johnb]

But you're assuming that future potential should be factored into it. And it absolutely shouldn't. Offensively, both players have similar stats. Okafor is more effective and arguably the better scorer, but that's half of the equation. How about the defensive half, where Kaminsky clearly has an advantage (and Kaminsky isn't even that elite of a defender)?

First off, I think any of Cook/Jones/Winslow should win over Kaminsky (hence the blind boosterism).

Second, Jah has a deeper and better team around him (and plays against better teams), so it takes away a bit from his offensive stats.

Third, there's a defensive POY for defense. POY isn't about defense.

Fourth, potential shouldn't be factored in, probably, but one comparable is 2009. Your guy, Hansblah, won the award over Steph Curry, James Harden, and Blake Griffin. Okay, I realize it's cheating to link 2009 with 2015, or link you and Carolina, but this is a debate after all, and cheating should be encouraged. Anyway, I'd say, in retrospect, that Hansbla won for his 4-year body of work on a tv-worthy team, while my hunch is that even at the time, the coaches of the other 3 guys felt their guy was getting a raw deal...

[flyingdutchdevil]

Regarding offense, Okafor has a major achille's with his free throw shooting and the possibility of a hack a Jah strategy. Kaminsky does not. Also Kaminsky swished 3 treys in this last game, and has some decent post moves if you watch some highlights.

BTW, don't assume that Okaforis an absolute sure lock for the number one pick if he declares. There are a few NBA scouts who think a certain 6'11" player from Kentucky may have the better long term potential, hits close to 80% on free throws, plays excellent defense, good outside game as well. Could become one heck of an NBA stretch four... There are also concerns about Okafor's lack of lateral food speed for defense, which can only be improved so much with drills.

If posters are not interested in who will be the POY that is fine. I think it is a great honor, and an interesting contest and discussion, especially this year.

I love this Duke team and program, but I also don't want to view everything through dark blue glasses.

Ummm...I'm definitely not selling Kaminsky short. That's why I pegged him as NPOY! Kaminsky is really, really, really good offensive player and borderline great; Okafor is elite.

And I am absolutely assuming Okafor goes #1. All scouts and media have Okafor pegged as #1. Can it change? Of course. Will it change? Doubt it.

[flyingdutchdevil]

First off, I think any of Cook/Jones/Winslow should win over Kaminsky (hence the blind boosterism).

Second, Jah has a deeper and better team around him (and plays against better teams), so it takes away a bit from his offensive stats.

Third, there's a defensive POY for defense. POY isn't about defense.

Fourth, potential shouldn't be factored in, probably, but one comparable is 2009. Your guy, Hansblah, won the award over Steph Curry, James Harden, and Blake Griffin. Okay, I realize it's cheating to link 2009 with 2015, or link you and Carolina, but this is a debate after all, and cheating should be encouraged. Anyway, I'd say, in retrospect, that Hansbla won for his 4-year body of work on a tv-worthy team, while my hunch is that even at the time, the coaches of the other 3 guys felt their guy was getting a raw deal...

Not cool to link me with Kerlina. That's drawing the line, buddy!

1) I too would choose Cook/Jones/Winslow on my team. But Frank the Tank has been awesome and deserves NPOY.

2) Agreed. But it's not offensively. Okafor is more dominant this year than Kaminsky offensively.

3) Nope. NPOY is about both, my friend.

4) Hanstravel broke the ACC scoring record. As much as it pains me to say it, he deserved NPOY for the body of work. Kinda like LOTR's Return of the King won best picture at the Oscars. Wasn't the best movie, but certainly a worthy award for the body of LOTR work.

[Duvall]

4) Hanstravel broke the ACC scoring record. As much as it pains me to say it, he deserved NPOY for the body of work. Kinda like LOTR's Return of the King won best picture at the Oscars. Wasn't the best movie, but certainly a worthy award for the body of LOTR work.

A) Hansbrough broke no records in 2008, his junior season;
B) Beasley's stats that year were obscene; and
C) How could you be the National Player of the Year while being far inferior to a player on your own team?

[vick]

First off, I think any of Cook/Jones/Winslow should win over Kaminsky (hence the blind boosterism).

Second, Jah has a deeper and better team around him (and plays against better teams), so it takes away a bit from his offensive stats.

Third, there's a defensive POY for defense. POY isn't about defense.

Fourth, potential shouldn't be factored in, probably, but one comparable is 2009. Your guy, Hansblah, won the award over Steph Curry, James Harden, and Blake Griffin. Okay, I realize it's cheating to link 2009 with 2015, or link you and Carolina, but this is a debate after all, and cheating should be encouraged. Anyway, I'd say, in retrospect, that Hansbla won for his 4-year body of work on a tv-worthy team, while my hunch is that even at the time, the coaches of the other 3 guys felt their guy was getting a raw deal...

First of all, Griffin won every significant POY award in 2009, not Hansbrough. Hansbrough won in 2008 as a junior. Beasley and Love were the players who had credible cases against Hansbrough, with Love underrated for frankly the same reason a lot of people underrate Kaminsky (i.e. slow pace).

Second, defense of course goes into the POY awards, why in the world would it not?

Third, Winslow and Jones are borderline for making any all-ACC team; the idea that they are anywhere near NPOY caliber is laughable even for boosterism.

[NM Duke Fan]

Ummm...I'm definitely not selling Kaminsky short. That's why I pegged him as NPOY! Kaminsky is really, really, really good offensive player and borderline great; Okafor is elite.

And I am absolutely assuming Okafor goes #1. All scouts and media have Okafor pegged as #1. Can it change? Of course. Will it change? Doubt it.

Sorry about that, I should not have included your reply in mine, you have been quite objective and measured! I was just making some general comments...

I agree that Jah is very likely to be the number one pick, but there is some shifting momentum out there, including some quotes from anonymous scouts, can't find them right now. I've seen a few quotes like the following regarding Towns from Kentucky, from NBAdraft.net:

"Less polished and proven than Duke center Jahlil Okafor , but we view him to be the better long term prospect for the NBA level .."

[tux]

Sorry about that, I should not have included your reply in mine, you have been quite objective and measured! I was just making some general comments...

I agree that Jah is very likely to be the number one pick, but there is some shifting momentum out there, including some quotes from anonymous scouts, can't find them right now. I've seen a few quotes like the following regarding Towns from Kentucky, from NBAdraft.net:

"Less polished and proven than Duke center Jahlil Okafor , but we view him to be the better long term prospect for the NBA level .."

There was also a recent article from a NY paper saying that the Knicks should (something like) "be clowns for towns" instead of drafting Okafor. The main source for that article was Towns' high school (or AAU) coach, so yeah... there will be a lot of "some scouts say" BS between now and the draft. A lot of positioning. Towns is a good player, but I've never seen a freshman with Okafor's size move like he moves on offense. The NBA team holding the #1 pick will pass on him at their own peril IMO.

[flyingdutchdevil]

There was also a recent article from a NY paper saying that the Knicks should (something like) "be clowns for towns" instead of drafting Okafor. The main source for that article was Towns' high school (or AAU) coach, so yeah... there will be a lot of "some scouts say" BS between now and the draft. A lot of positioning. Towns is a good player, but I've never seen a freshman with Okafor's size move like he moves on offense. The NBA team holding the #1 pick will pass on him at their own peril IMO.

Not to mention, you aren't getting fired if you draft Okafor #1. You may get fired if you draft Towns, Russel, or Mudiay. Potentially great players, but no sure thing.

Never underestimate a GM's motives for keeping his job.

[AIRFORCEDUKIE]

On one hand Jah won the one on one matchup, that has to be taken into account. On the other, Frank is a beast and a Senior so I think the fact that he worked his way to such a great player should be taken into account as well. This is a tough one, and my Duke goggles say JAH!!!! Only because Duke won the game against Wisconsin.

[rsvman]

Towns will go first in the draft, because.......wait for it........Okafor is staying!

You heard it here first.

[cptnflash]

Towns will go first in the draft, because.......wait for it........Okafor is staying!

You heard it here first.

Oh man, I certainly hope not! What does Jah have to gain by playing against non-NBA talent for another year?

[wilko]

Oh man, I certainly hope not! What does Jah have to gain by playing against non-NBA talent for another year?

Defense and FT%.
I dont expect he will stay.....but lets not pretend hes perfect. He could refine his game.
It just so happens that his strengths far outpace any of his shortcomings

[NM Duke Fan]

Towns will go first in the draft, because.......wait for it........Okafor is staying!

You heard it here first.

Not probable, but I am one of those who also does not think that him leaving is a done deal. He really loves being at Duke! And there certainly are facets of his game that can be improved and it seems he has a great relationship of trust with this staff. Of course there are always those who say he will improve his game in the NBA.

Whatever happens, he is a very special young man of character, and a truly elite interior player on offense... and Duke is very fortunate to have him right now.

I am also glad to see that this thread, that was deteriorating, has been cleaned up!

[Ichabod Drain]

Defense and FT%.
I dont expect he will stay.....but lets not pretend hes perfect. He could refine his game.
It just so happens that his strengths far outpace any of his shortcomings

Why can't he refine those things in the NBA?

[flyingdutchdevil]

Why can't he refine those things in the NBA?

He can and he should. If you're a high pick and you have aspects of your game that you can work on, you go to the NBA. $$$ + more contact with trainers & coaches + no major distractions (school, the NCAA) = pretty sweet plan.

[NM Duke Fan]

He can and he should. If you're a high pick and you have aspects of your game that you can work on, you go to the NBA. $$$ + more contact with trainers & coaches + no major distractions (school, the NCAA) = pretty sweet plan.

From what I have read here and there, Jabari may now have a different opinion than the above based on his experiences... life is full of trade offs, that is for sure. Another year at Duke and what he so misses now holds great value in retrospect.

We all walk our own Paths, and I am usually leery of phrases that someone SHOULD do something. As a health care provider amongst other things, I usually see things turn out the best for people when they follow their Hearts.

[Indoor66]

From what I have read here and there, Jabari may now have a different opinion than the above based on his experiences... life is full of trade offs, that is for sure. Another year at Duke and what he so misses now holds great value in retrospect.

We all walk our own Paths, and I am usually leery of phrases that someone SHOULD do something. As a health care provider amongst other things, I usually see things turn out the best for people when they follow their Hearts.

In life, "Should" is often the precursor to Regret.

[wilko]

Why can't he refine those things in the NBA?

I never said or implied he could or shouldn't work on them in the NBA.
Just that those deficiencies *could* be a reason to return.

[bluenorth]

Whenever Okafor chooses to go to the NBA, he will be a top pick and a wealthy young man. I would love to see him stay at Duke for another season and improve his overall game, but it's very hard to pass up that pro paycheque. I guess that his family will help make the decision when the time comes.

[53n206]

So many factors go into the decision. The desire to stay at Duke, doing without major income for a year, the potential to improve his defense(if this is important to him), and the all threatening potential for injury. If I were to put these factors together I would go to the pros.

[CDu]

From what I have read here and there, Jabari may now have a different opinion than the above based on his experiences... life is full of trade offs, that is for sure. Another year at Duke and what he so misses now holds great value in retrospect.

We all walk our own Paths, and I am usually leery of phrases that someone SHOULD do something. As a health care provider amongst other things, I usually see things turn out the best for people when they follow their Hearts.

Or, given that he tore his ACL this year, maybe Parker has an even greater appreciation for striking while the iron is hot. Had he done so while playing at Duke this year, he may have cost himself millions more.

As you said, there are certainly tradeoffs. It's a complicated question and there is no one right answer.

Regardless, I'll be absolutely shocked if Okafor (or Winslow, for that matter) are playing basketball for Duke next year. And I would be not-at-all surprised if Tyus Jones was gone as well (though less surprised if Jones returns than either of the other two).

[flyingdutchdevil]

Or, given that he tore his ACL this year, maybe Parker has an even greater appreciation for striking while the iron is hot. Had he done so while playing at Duke this year, he may have cost himself millions more.

As you said, there are certainly tradeoffs. It's a complicated question and there is no one right answer.

Regardless, I'll be absolutely shocked if Okafor (or Winslow, for that matter) are playing basketball for Duke next year. And I would be not-at-all surprised if Tyus Jones was gone as well (though less surprised if Jones returns than either of the other two).

Yeah. Okafor doesn't have the proverbial "one foot out the door," but he's a goner. And, sadly, someone will create the "Okafor NBA Vigil" thread that has a total of 0.75 relevant posts. Odds of coming back: Me winning the national lottery without a ticket.

Winslow has the word "potential" written all over him. Plus, he's a legitimate 2-way player with great size. He's a bit of the tweener, but he's the good type of tweener (2/3 rather than a 3/4. Those are the worst). Winslow will probably have a little more to think about, but he's a sure-fire lottery pick right now. Odds of coming back: Vegas odds that Duke wins the NCAA tournament

Tyus Jones is in a very interesting position. Technically, he is so sound. His court vision, ability to take care of the ball, FT and 3pt FG, and clutchness (word?) are incredible. But he is a) a defensive liability, b) overshadowed by Okafor, Winslow, and Cook, and c) doesn't look anything like an NBA PG (ie he is very petite). He could really play himself into the lottery next year, or he could land on the Cavs / Spurs / Bulls. Odds of coming back: coin flip

[rsvman]

.... Odds of coming back: Me winning the national lottery without a ticket.

.....

Which, if you think about it, are not substantially different from your odds of winning even if you do buy a ticket.

[NM Duke Fan]

More along the original subject of this thread -- Luke Winn, who actually has a vote that counts unlike (probably) all of us, joins the discussion, along with David Gardner, the author of this article:

Since Kaminsky took the top spot back from Jahlil Okafor on Jan. 14, I’ve written about Frank the Tank’s passing, his defensive advantage over Okafor and his underrated offense. On Tuesday, my SI colleague Luke Winn (who actually has a vote for the Naismith Award) backed me up, writing that not only is Kaminsky the favorite to win various national player of the year awards but also that "he'd have to go into a profound slump to lose them."

http://www.si.com/college-basketball/2015/02/11/player-year-frank-kaminsky-jahlil-okafor-delon-wright-jerian-grant

[BobBender]

Is there a more dominant player this year than Oak? I really like Kaminsky's game -- but Jahzilla cannot be defended heads up.

Okafor is a great offensive player, if this were just about O, he is the hands down winner. But we have our collective heads in the sand if we think he will not lose votes because he is so much of a non-factor on D. A great big man usually can cover for teammates and allow them to play more aggressively on D. With Jah, that is just not the case.
To me, it's just sad that we are watching the last ( optimistically) 8 or 9 games of his Duke career. I know OAD has helped us more than hurt us, but potentially having a brand new cast of leading men again next year is not what it's all about (thankfully Jefferson will provide a link).

[gus]

All else being equal or indistinguishable, I say give it to the senior. Recognize the guys who stick around.

[Billy Dat]

Maybe this is why Jah seems to be less of a rim protector than we thought he'd be...he can't get off the ground quickly?

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Q.
My friends and I have watched every single Duke game this year. Over the entire season, Duke has won exactly one tip-off. Jahlil Okafor is unbelievably bad at them. Is it just too embarrassing to not have your center tip? By the way, the only tip-off Duke has won was the Clemson game … when Okafor was hurt and they let Amile Jefferson jump.
—Clint

A.
This might be my favorite email ever. I can’t figure out if Okafor’s jump-ball Kryptonite is the most or least important flaw in the world. I’ve gone back and forth 4,193 times. There is no in between. On one hand, it’s a single play that takes half a second and results in zero points, so losing the tip shouldn’t be a big deal. On the other hand, how can a big man who is a lock to be the top pick in the NBA draft get outjumped by guys who will be accountants in five years? If Okafor goes oh-fer the rest of the season, this will go down as my favorite basketball stat of all time.
(By the way, Clint sent this before Duke’s game against Syracuse on Saturday. Okafor lost that tip-off, too.)

[InSpades]

Maybe this is why Jah seems to be less of a rim protector than we thought he'd be...he can't get off the ground quickly?

Mark Titus Power Rankings Mailbag
http://grantland.com/the-triangle/ncaa-college-basketball-rankings-top-12-wichita-state-shockers-big-12-maryland-terrapins-notre-dame-fighting-irish-gonzaga-bulldogs-kansas-jayhawks-wisconsin-badgers-arizona-wildcats-duke-blue-devils/

Q.
My friends and I have watched every single Duke game this year. Over the entire season, Duke has won exactly one tip-off. Jahlil Okafor is unbelievably bad at them. Is it just too embarrassing to not have your center tip? By the way, the only tip-off Duke has won was the Clemson game … when Okafor was hurt and they let Amile Jefferson jump.
—Clint

A.
This might be my favorite email ever. I can’t figure out if Okafor’s jump-ball Kryptonite is the most or least important flaw in the world. I’ve gone back and forth 4,193 times. There is no in between. On one hand, it’s a single play that takes half a second and results in zero points, so losing the tip shouldn’t be a big deal. On the other hand, how can a big man who is a lock to be the top pick in the NBA draft get outjumped by guys who will be accountants in five years? If Okafor goes oh-fer the rest of the season, this will go down as my favorite basketball stat of all time.
(By the way, Clint sent this before Duke’s game against Syracuse on Saturday. Okafor lost that tip-off, too.)

That stat is hilarious. I've actually noticed it quite often. I've wondered if we should have Winslow take the tip (or Amile). I realize Jah's vertical is not the best but... I'm sure his combination of height and leap should give him a pretty big edge over a lot of opposing centers. Clearly not a big deal but... just kind of weird.

[NM Duke Fan]

That stat is hilarious. I've actually noticed it quite often. I've wondered if we should have Winslow take the tip (or Amile). I realize Jah's vertical is not the best but... I'm sure his combination of height and leap should give him a pretty big edge over a lot of opposing centers. Clearly not a big deal but... just kind of weird.

What I experienced playing the game was that with both blocked shots and center jumps, some players were just much better than others at anticipation and resultant perfect timing. Some also have much quicker reflexes to adjust on the fly, which can make up for not being quite as good at anticipation. You see this all the time in martial arts sparring... and in playing defense in basketball too.

[El_Diablo]

That stat is hilarious. I've actually noticed it quite often. I've wondered if we should have Winslow take the tip (or Amile). I realize Jah's vertical is not the best but... I'm sure his combination of height and leap should give him a pretty big edge over a lot of opposing centers. Clearly not a big deal but... just kind of weird.

That stat IS hilarious. Although it is simply not true.

But hey, it's Grantland. Facts are not really important.

[InSpades]

That stat IS hilarious. Although it is simply not true.

But hey, it's Grantland. Facts are not really important.

I obviously haven't kept track (nor do I have a desire to go back and look) but it does seem like he loses the tap a lot.

[El_Diablo]

I obviously haven't kept track (nor do I have a desire to go back and look) but it does seem like he loses the tap a lot.

Based on the play by play summaries available on ESPN, anyone can see pretty quickly that we have won numerous opening tips. Since some of those victorious jump balls may be instances in which one of our players stole the tip or where the ball went out of bounds, I went to the ESPN3 video archive to check some examples. I can confirm that Okafor won the opening tip against Army, Wofford, BC, and Virginia Tech (the other one I checked, against Connecticut, was the result of the UConn player sending it out of bounds). There are probably more examples,* but the statement that Okafor has never won a tip is just flat-out wrong.

*There are also some games in which we were reported to have won the tip, but the video is not available on ESPN3 (e.g., aired on CBS). There are also many games that do not have a play by play posted, so it is possible we won other tips in addition to the ones I saw.

[-jk]

I've noticed this pattern. Yeah, we lose more tips than win. Not for athleticism, though, but for positioning on the court. K really doesn't want to give up an easy opening shot.

-jk

[Badgerblue]

As someone who grew up a Duke fan (a couple of family members went there) and went to Wisconsin, this debate intrigues me and I enjoyed reading this thread. I have to say, though, I do feel Kaminsky's offensive production and abilities are being shortchanged by some of you. I'm not sure why Okafor would be considered an elite offensive player, while Kaminsky would be categorized as "merely" great. The numbers actually suggest the exact opposite.

If you look at the player efficiency ratings for the two players, that tells a big part of the story. Kaminsky is so far ahead of the rest of the field, it’s pretty astounding. To me, that’s the main thing this debate is missing. Kaminsky and Okafor’s absolute numbers are pretty comparable, though Okafor has a slight edge. But keep in mind that this year, like many, Wisconsin is one of the slowest teams in the country. Duke averages nine more possessions per game than Wisconsin. Basically, Kaminsky’s output is about the same as Okafor’s, but with several fewer opportunities per game. Kaminsky’s 31 points against Michigan State came in a game with only 57 possessions. Remarkable.

The difference between Kaminsky’s rating and Okafor’s rating is the same as the difference between Okafor and the player who’s #46 on the list. Okafor is having a great year. Kaminsky is having a dominant, perhaps even historic year. He’s in line to have one of the best college basketball seasons since efficiency stats were tracked.

I’m not going to get into the defense debate. Kaminsky is a solid defender, but he’s not dominant. According to Hollinger’s data (http://insider.espn.go.com/ncb/hollinger/statistics), there’s probably a little more separation than one would think. Okafor has a big edge in o-rebound rate and a slight edge in overall rebound rate, but Kaminsky has a big edge in d-rebound rate, assist rate, turnover rate and overall player efficiency.

I’m not taking anything away from Okafor. He’s having a spectacular season and yes, he did get the best of Kaminsky in their head to head matchup. That’s the best game I’ve ever seen a team play against Wisconsin in the Kohl Center. It was a game where, after a while, I just had to do what I could to sit back and marvel at how incredible Duke was. I almost enjoyed watching it.

That one game might tip the balance if all else was equal. Obviously, my view is colored, but going strictly by the tempo-free numbers, all else is not equal.

If Wisconsin doesn’t win the title this year, I hope it’s Duke. If Duke doesn’t win it, I hope it’s anyone but Kentucky.

*Edited to add link and summary of Hollinger data.

[jv001]

As someone who grew up a Duke fan (a couple of family members went there) and went to Wisconsin, this debate intrigues me and I enjoyed reading this thread. I have to say, though, I do feel Kaminsky's offensive production and abilities are being shortchanged by some of you. I'm not sure why Okafor would be considered an elite offensive player, while Kaminsky would be categorized as "merely" great. The numbers actually suggest the exact opposite.

If you look at the player efficiency ratings for the two players, that tells a big part of the story. Kaminsky is so far ahead of the rest of the field, it’s pretty astounding. To me, that’s the main thing this debate is missing. Kaminsky and Okafor’s absolute numbers are pretty comparable, though Okafor has a slight edge. But keep in mind that this year, like many, Wisconsin is one of the slowest teams in the country. Duke averages nine more possessions per game than Wisconsin. Basically, Kaminsky’s output is about the same as Okafor’s, but with several fewer opportunities per game. Kaminsky’s 31 points against Michigan State came in a game with only 57 possessions. Remarkable.

The difference between Kaminsky’s rating and Okafor’s rating is the same as the difference between Okafor and the player who’s #46 on the list. Okafor is having a great year. Kaminsky is having a dominant, perhaps even historic year. He’s in line to have one of the best college basketball seasons since efficiency stats were tracked.

I’m not going to get into the defense debate. Kaminsky is a solid defender, but he’s not dominant. According to Hollinger’s data (http://insider.espn.go.com/ncb/hollinger/statistics), there’s probably a little more separation than one would think. Okafor has a big edge in o-rebound rate and a slight edge in overall rebound rate, but Kaminsky has a big edge in d-rebound rate, assist rate, turnover rate and overall player efficiency.

I’m not taking anything away from Okafor. He’s having a spectacular season and yes, he did get the best of Kaminsky in their head to head matchup. That’s the best game I’ve ever seen a team play against Wisconsin in the Kohl Center. It was a game where, after a while, I just had to do what I could to sit back and marvel at how incredible Duke was. I almost enjoyed watching it.

That one game might tip the balance if all else was equal. Obviously, my view is colored, but going strictly by the tempo-free numbers, all else is not equal.

If Wisconsin doesn’t win the title this year, I hope it’s Duke. If Duke doesn’t win it, I hope it’s anyone but Kentucky.

*Edited to add link and summary of Hollinger data.

Thanks for a very good post. I agree that Kaminsky should win player of the year honors, but I think Jahlil is probably the best Freshman player ever to wear the Duke uniform. If he played above average defense, I think he might just be the favorite to win most the award. Good to hear you have your priorities in order when it comes to your favorite teams. GoDuke!

[superdave]

I just read Eammon Brennan's article on the Wooden rankings, where he says he has had Kaminsky at 1 for a couple of months. I think Kaminsky is good this season. I really think he is historically below average for an All-American and way-below average for a Wooden winner. Maybe it's the one and done era, maybe if Okafor was on Wisconsin and averaged 25 and 12 a night it would be different.

Kaminsky looks like he will win, and I am fine with that. But Okafor is an incredible player and Kaminsky is not. This will feel like Jameer Nelson or Jimmer Fredette winning a few years down the line. People will have some recollection of the winner, and recall Wisco's early tournament exit, and think he won because he was the best senior.

I hope this doesnt sound like sour grapes - not my intention - but I dont really think Kaminsky is all that compelling a player and will be a historically weak Wooden winner in retrospect.

[NM Duke Fan]

As someone who grew up a Duke fan (a couple of family members went there) and went to Wisconsin, this debate intrigues me and I enjoyed reading this thread. I have to say, though, I do feel Kaminsky's offensive production and abilities are being shortchanged by some of you. I'm not sure why Okafor would be considered an elite offensive player, while Kaminsky would be categorized as "merely" great. The numbers actually suggest the exact opposite.

If you look at the player efficiency ratings for the two players, that tells a big part of the story. Kaminsky is so far ahead of the rest of the field, it’s pretty astounding. To me, that’s the main thing this debate is missing. Kaminsky and Okafor’s absolute numbers are pretty comparable, though Okafor has a slight edge. But keep in mind that this year, like many, Wisconsin is one of the slowest teams in the country. Duke averages nine more possessions per game than Wisconsin. Basically, Kaminsky’s output is about the same as Okafor’s, but with several fewer opportunities per game. Kaminsky’s 31 points against Michigan State came in a game with only 57 possessions. Remarkable.

The difference between Kaminsky’s rating and Okafor’s rating is the same as the difference between Okafor and the player who’s #46 on the list. Okafor is having a great year. Kaminsky is having a dominant, perhaps even historic year. He’s in line to have one of the best college basketball seasons since efficiency stats were tracked.

I’m not going to get into the defense debate. Kaminsky is a solid defender, but he’s not dominant. According to Hollinger’s data (http://insider.espn.go.com/ncb/hollinger/statistics), there’s probably a little more separation than one would think. Okafor has a big edge in o-rebound rate and a slight edge in overall rebound rate, but Kaminsky has a big edge in d-rebound rate, assist rate, turnover rate and overall player efficiency.

I’m not taking anything away from Okafor. He’s having a spectacular season and yes, he did get the best of Kaminsky in their head to head matchup. That’s the best game I’ve ever seen a team play against Wisconsin in the Kohl Center. It was a game where, after a while, I just had to do what I could to sit back and marvel at how incredible Duke was. I almost enjoyed watching it.

That one game might tip the balance if all else was equal. Obviously, my view is colored, but going strictly by the tempo-free numbers, all else is not equal.

If Wisconsin doesn’t win the title this year, I hope it’s Duke. If Duke doesn’t win it, I hope it’s anyone but Kentucky.

*Edited to add link and summary of Hollinger data.

Thank you for the time and energy you put into this excellent post. I am one of the Duke fans who happens to agree with you regarding Kaminsky. And of course, there are a few analysts of the game who think that if anyone can do it, you have one of the better chances of beating Kentucky.

[Duke31122]

I really hope Jahlil wins it. He is such a great player, and he represents Duke so well. However, the same can be said for Kaminsky. He is a great college player at the very least, and I give him credit for helping lead Wisconsin for the power they have been over the past couple years.

It really may come down to the tournament and first few rounds of the NCAA. Either way I am happy for either player, and unless Wisconsin is in our bracket, I would love to see them in the Final Four. Bo Ryan seems like such a great guy and Coach.

These two have definitely separated themselves from the rest of the pack, and it is definitely going to a great young man regardless if Kaminsky or Jahlil win.

[Billy Dat]

In an Andy Katz "hot take", he says he spoke to Jeff Capel who assessed Duke's squad this way:

-Best player - Jah
-MVP - Quinn Cook
-Most important for Duke to optimize its potential - Tyus Jones

http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/post/_/id/103819/3-point-shot-dukes-key-player

[sagegrouse]

Not probable, but I am one of those who also does not think that him leaving is a done deal. He really loves being at Duke! And there certainly are facets of his game that can be improved and it seems he has a great relationship of trust with this staff. Of course there are always those who say he will improve his game in the NBA.

Whatever happens, he is a very special young man of character, and a truly elite interior player on offense... and Duke is very fortunate to have him right now.

I am also glad to see that this thread, that was deteriorating, has been cleaned up!

Oh my, do you know this kind of delusional talk is contagious? You could infect the whole Board.

[CDu]

I just read Eammon Brennan's article on the Wooden rankings, where he says he has had Kaminsky at 1 for a couple of months. I think Kaminsky is good this season. I really think he is historically below average for an All-American and way-below average for a Wooden winner. Maybe it's the one and done era, maybe if Okafor was on Wisconsin and averaged 25 and 12 a night it would be different.

Kaminsky looks like he will win, and I am fine with that. But Okafor is an incredible player and Kaminsky is not. This will feel like Jameer Nelson or Jimmer Fredette winning a few years down the line. People will have some recollection of the winner, and recall Wisco's early tournament exit, and think he won because he was the best senior.

I hope this doesnt sound like sour grapes - not my intention - but I dont really think Kaminsky is all that compelling a player and will be a historically weak Wooden winner in retrospect.

I'm going to disagree here, mainly because I think you're ignoring the biggest factor as to why Kaminsky's numbers don't look better: pace of play. Kaminsky is virtually matching Okafor's count stats despite playing way fewer possessions per game. When you adjust for pace of play (i.e., look at the stats per 100 possessions), you get the following:

Kaminksy:
37.7 points, 16.8 rebounds, 5.4 assists, 1.8 steals, 3.3 blocks, 3.0 turnovers, 63.2 TS%, 130.9 offensive efficiency rating, 87.9 defensive efficiency rating

Okafor:
34.6 points, 18.3 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 1.5 steals, 2.7 blocks, 5.2 turnovers, 64.3 TS%, 120.9 offensive efficiency rating, 95.2 defensive efficiency rating

With the exception of true shooting percentage and rebounds (largely a function of offensive rebounding), Kaminsky has been better than Okafor across the board. He's having an amazing season, and it definitely comes across as sour grapes to suggest that he is not that compelling a candidate for the award. He is a better candidate right now than Okafor, in my opinion. Even in the head-to-head matchup, Kaminsky outplayed Okafor (17 and 9 for Kaminsky, 13 and 6 for Okafor).

This is sort of like the comp between Laettner and O'Neal. Kaminsky's game is very reminiscent of Laettner's, with his ability to score in the post and also to hit the 3 (he shoots 42.1% from 3pt range), as well as his ability to handle the ball and set up others. Okafor, on the other hand, is the behemoth inside who lacks the shooting touch but can overwhelm you with his strength and skill around the basket. Okafor will likely be the better pro, but Kaminsky has been better this year. Obviously it is not a perfect comparison, but there are a lot of similarities.

If you were to ask who the most talented player is, it's Okafor. And if Okafor were around for another year or two, he'd probably put up numbers that dwarf Kaminsky's. But we're talking about this year only, and in this year I think it is pretty hard to argue that Okafor has had a better season.

[NM Duke Fan]

I'm going to disagree here, mainly because I think you're ignoring the biggest factor as to why Kaminsky's numbers don't look better: pace of play. Kaminsky is virtually matching Okafor's count stats despite playing way fewer possessions per game. When you adjust for pace of play (i.e., look at the stats per 100 possessions), you get the following:

Kaminksy:
37.7 points, 16.8 rebounds, 5.4 assists, 1.8 steals, 3.3 blocks, 3.0 turnovers, 63.2 TS%, 130.9 offensive efficiency rating, 87.9 defensive efficiency rating

Okafor:
34.6 points, 18.3 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 1.5 steals, 2.7 blocks, 5.2 turnovers, 64.3 TS%, 120.9 offensive efficiency rating, 95.2 defensive efficiency rating

With the exception of true shooting percentage and rebounds (largely a function of offensive rebounding), Kaminsky has been better than Okafor across the board. He's having an amazing season, and it definitely comes across as sour grapes to suggest that he is not that compelling a candidate for the award. He is a better candidate right now than Okafor, in my opinion. Even in the head-to-head matchup, Kaminsky outplayed Okafor (17 and 9 for Kaminsky, 13 and 6 for Okafor).

This is sort of like the comp between Laettner and O'Neal. Kaminsky's game is very reminiscent of Laettner's, with his ability to score in the post and also to hit the 3 (he shoots 42.1% from 3pt range), as well as his ability to handle the ball and set up others. Okafor, on the other hand, is the behemoth inside who lacks the shooting touch but can overwhelm you with his strength and skill around the basket. Okafor will likely be the better pro, but Kaminsky has been better this year. Obviously it is not a perfect comparison, but there are a lot of similarities.

If you were to ask who the most talented player is, it's Okafor. And if Okafor were around for another year or two, he'd probably put up numbers that dwarf Kaminsky's. But we're talking about this year only, and in this year I think it is pretty hard to argue that Okafor has had a better season.

Bravo, this is a great comparison both between Okafor and Kaminsky, and the reference to the past comparison. One of the best posts in this thread, IMO!

[NM Duke Fan]

Oh my, do you know this kind of delusional talk is contagious? You could infect the whole Board.

I doubt it! Most people, including me, know the probabilities weigh heavily against it, but as a futures trader I try to avoid saying anything is a done deal. In both life and in the markets, we are dealing with probabilities. I'd give it under 20%, and therefore would not risk money on it

[DBFAN]

Someone may have already said this, but I think it's entirely possible that people have been spoiled by seeing JAH so much. They have forgotten how good he really is. Which is why there has been a surge in other players popularity. If JAH was just coming on the scene I imagine he would be the only one being talked about. I also have to wonder if people are making a distinction between MVP and best player in College Basketball. While both titles have a lot of similarities, they also have some distinct differences. To me best player means exactly that. MVP generally includes of how important a player is to a team. One could argue that Kaminsky (sp?) is more important to his team. But I dont think one could really argue that he is the better player. If Okafor had same team as Kaminsky his numbers would be off the charts ( I mean they already are) but I would guess his PPG would be closer to 25, and everything else is up. The question that I think needs to be asked is which guy is harder to defend. And since I haven't seen a player yet who can guard Okafor that would be my choice. Just my thoughts

[CDu]

Someone may have already said this, but I think it's entirely possible that people have been spoiled by seeing JAH so much. They have forgotten how good he really is. Which is why there has been a surge in other players popularity. If JAH was just coming on the scene I imagine he would be the only one being talked about. I also have to wonder if people are making a distinction between MVP and best player in College Basketball. While both titles have a lot of similarities, they also have some distinct differences. To me best player means exactly that. MVP generally includes of how important a player is to a team. One could argue that Kaminsky (sp?) is more important to his team. But I dont think one could really argue that he is the better player. If Okafor had same team as Kaminsky his numbers would be off the charts ( I mean they already are) but I would guess his PPG would be closer to 25, and everything else is up. The question that I think needs to be asked is which guy is harder to defend. And since I haven't seen a player yet who can guard Okafor that would be my choice. Just my thoughts

I'm going to go ahead and disagree, for the reasons I've said above. I'd argue that it is Kaminsky's numbers, not Okafor's, that are being hurt by playing for Wisconsin. Wisconsin plays at a much slower pace than Duke, so Kaminsky's count stats are deflated compared to Okafor's stats.

And the award is not an MVP award, nor is it a "most talented player" award. It is an award for the best player during the season. And I think the stats strongly suggest that Kaminsky has been the better player this year. Not by a huge margin (although the differences in offensive and defensive efficiency aren't all that small), but by a clear margin.

Don't get me wrong: Okafor is having an absolutely outstanding season. But Kaminsky is having a slightly more outstanding season. I think some of this is that people aren't watching Kaminsky play on a regular basis. He is really freaking good, and is having an amazing season.

[DBFAN]

In the head to head matchup how many points did Kaminsky score are the game had been decided... Because I'm pretty sure that the next day all anyone talked about was Duke and Okafor. I might be wrong but it seemed as tho Frank scored 4 or 5 pts after game was pretty much over. That is where stats don't prove anything. When Duke just lets them go to basket because no need to foul or defend

[CDu]

In the head to head matchup how many points did Kaminsky score are the game had been decided... Because I'm pretty sure that the next day all anyone talked about was Duke and Okafor. I might be wrong but it seemed as tho Frank scored 4 or 5 pts after game was pretty much over. That is where stats don't prove anything. When Duke just lets them go to basket because no need to foul or defend

Kaminsky scored nearly all of his points in the first 30 minutes. He scored just 3 points in the final 7:09 of the game, and just 2 points in the final 7 minutes of the game. He most certainly didn't pad his stats in garbage time (and frankly, there was never much garbage time anyway - it was a two-possession game with under a minute to go).

[DBFAN]

I said I might be wrong. 😎

[ChillinDuke]

I'm going to go ahead and disagree, for the reasons I've said above. I'd argue that it is Kaminsky's numbers, not Okafor's, that are being hurt by playing for Wisconsin. Wisconsin plays at a much slower pace than Duke, so Kaminsky's count stats are deflated compared to Okafor's stats.

And the award is not an MVP award, nor is it a "most talented player" award. It is an award for the best player during the season. And I think the stats strongly suggest that Kaminsky has been the better player this year. Not by a huge margin (although the differences in offensive and defensive efficiency aren't all that small), but by a clear margin.

Don't get me wrong: Okafor is having an absolutely outstanding season. But Kaminsky is having a slightly more outstanding season. I think some of this is that people aren't watching Kaminsky play on a regular basis. He is really freaking good, and is having an amazing season.

Fair enough. Hey, it's a close race - there's no doubt. And Kaminsky is a great player, so I wouldn't really be upset if he won. I would disagree, but I wouldn't be upset.

As I've stated above, I haven't watched enough Wisco games to consider myself an expert on the matter. But the way teams double- and sometimes triple-team Okafor is astonishing. If you credit Kaminsky for playing on a slower Wisco team, you have to credit Okafor for essentially being required to pass the ball with considerable frequency.

He completely changes the opposing team's gameplan. There's no way to quantify that. Kaminsky, while admittedly great, does not strike me as a player where the other team has to dramatically alter their defensive philosophy. Intensify and execute with precision? For sure. Dramatically alter? Unsure.

My biased nod goes to The Oak.

- Chillin

[mike88]

In an Andy Katz "hot take", he says he spoke to Jeff Capel who assessed Duke's squad this way:

-Best player - Jah
-MVP - Quinn Cook
-Most important for Duke to optimize its potential - Tyus Jones

http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/post/_/id/103819/3-point-shot-dukes-key-player


I think you could make a good argument that Justise Winslow has been the most important player for Duke this year, and that going forward his continued play at a high level will be most important for Duke advancing deep in the NCAAs. His ability to slide up to the 4 and create match-up problems (while still holding his own on defense) has been the biggest factor in our run of success over the past several weeks.

[Badgerblue]

Fair enough. Hey, it's a close race - there's no doubt. And Kaminsky is a great player, so I wouldn't really be upset if he won. I would disagree, but I wouldn't be upset.

As I've stated above, I haven't watched enough Wisco games to consider myself an expert on the matter. But the way teams double- and sometimes triple-team Okafor is astonishing. If you credit Kaminsky for playing on a slower Wisco team, you have to credit Okafor for essentially being required to pass the ball with considerable frequency.

He completely changes the opposing team's gameplan. There's no way to quantify that. Kaminsky, while admittedly great, does not strike me as a player where the other team has to dramatically alter their defensive philosophy. Intensify and execute with precision? For sure. Dramatically alter? Unsure.

My biased nod goes to The Oak.

- Chillin

I wouldn’t say that exactly. The thing about Kaminsky is that it’s very difficult to specifically gameplan for him, because he does everything. You can gameplan for a big who spends most of his time in the post. That doesn’t mean you’ll stop him, of course. It’s not as easy to gameplan for a guy who can hurt you from anywhere on the floor. Other coaches have tried. They mix up who they guard him with, using both smaller, quicker players to better handle his driving ability and bigger, stronger guys to body him up. Nothing has worked.

So, it’s worthwhile to credit Okafor with being double teamed and having to pass out of it. But it’s not exactly fair to ding Kaminsky because teams are unable to double him. And at the same time, Okafor’s turnover rate is almost twice what Kaminsky’s is. And his assist rate is half of what Kaminsky’s rate is. So if you’re going to look more closely at his passing ability, that doesn’t seem like a positive for Okafor.

[CDu]

I wouldn’t say that exactly. The thing about Kaminsky is that it’s very difficult to specifically gameplan for him, because he does everything. You can gameplan for a big who spends most of his time in the post. That doesn’t mean you’ll stop him, of course. It’s not as easy to gameplan for a guy who can hurt you from anywhere on the floor. Other coaches have tried. They mix up who they guard him with, using both smaller, quicker players to better handle his driving ability and bigger, stronger guys to body him up. Nothing has worked.

So, it’s worthwhile to credit Okafor with being double teamed and having to pass out of it. But it’s not exactly fair to ding Kaminsky because teams are unable to double him. And at the same time, Okafor’s turnover rate is almost twice what Kaminsky’s is. And his assist rate is half of what Kaminsky’s rate is. So if you’re going to look more closely at his passing ability, that doesn’t seem like a positive for Okafor.

I really think a lot of the issue here is that many folks on a Duke message board just haven't seen Kaminsky play on a regular basis. I agree with everything you have written here.

And really, we're talking about the two best players in college basketball. It's not like one is a god and the other is hot garbage. Saying that Kaminsky has had the better year is not to say that Okafor hasn't had a phenomenal year. Both should be first-team All-Americans and they should be 1-2 in NPoY voting.

[DBFAN]

When does the voting happen. I'm interested in how the last few games weigh in on the decision of the committee members

[NM Duke Fan]

Good article here comparing the two:

"Winn spoke to both players recently for a pair of upcoming stories in Sports Illustrated. “He's (Kaminsky) an amazing player and it was tough guarding him,” Okafor said. “He's definitely the best player in the country. it was a lot of fun playing him.”

http://www.si.com/college-basketball/2015/03/11/wooden-award-watch-frank-kaminsky-jahlil-okafor

[slower]

Kaminsky is having a dominant, perhaps even historic year. He’s in line to have one of the best college basketball seasons since efficiency stats were tracked.

You know, the geek stats may bear out that statement. But I think the word "Dominant" has gotten severely devalued.

Dominant is Maravich averaging 44 pts over his career, Wilt averaging 30/18 (with who knows how many blocks/game) or Oscar averaging 35/15/7 for his career. The use of "dominant" may be technically/statistically proper, but it sure doesn't pass the eye test.

[vick]

You know, the geek stats may bear out that statement. But I think the word "Dominant" has gotten severely devalued.

Dominant is Maravich averaging 44 pts over his career, Wilt averaging 30/18 (with who knows how many blocks/game) or Oscar averaging 35/15/7 for his career. The use of "dominant" may be technically/statistically proper, but it sure doesn't pass the eye test.

Whether or not dominant is overused, I'd take Kaminsky over Maravich and his 43.8% field goal shooting any day of the week, at least if my goal was to win basketball games. The standard for dominant should at least involve winning.

[slower]

Whether or not dominant is overused, I'd take Kaminsky over Maravich and his 43.8% field goal shooting any day of the week, at least if my goal was to win basketball games. The standard for dominant should at least involve winning.

Maybe so, maybe not. I seriously doubt history will remember Kaminsky as "dominant", whereas Pistol Pete will at least be remembered as a dominant scorer.

And I totally disagree that the standard for dominant should at least involve winning.

[sagegrouse]

Maybe so, maybe not. I seriously doubt history will remember Kaminsky as "dominant", whereas Pistol Pete will at least be remembered as a dominant scorer.

And I totally disagree that the standard for dominant should at least involve winning.

Pistol Pete played in the wrong decade, and it shortened his life span -- and didn't help his game.

[slower]

Pistol Pete played in the wrong decade, and it shortened his life span -- and didn't help his game.

I think I'd rather watch Maravich play than just about anybody.