How do we handle "hack a Jah"

[Eakane]

In both the Carloina and V.Tech games, we were extremely fortunate, despite some astonishing ineptitude from the free throw line from Jah and Amile. At some point, 50% shooting from the line is going to bite us you know where. I'm hoarse from screaming at the tv screen. We can only do so much defense for offense switching, as we need them on the floor -- especially Jah at the offensive end and Amile on defense. But when either of them rebounds the ball, seems to be a sound strategy to immediately foul them in the last 2+ miuntes of the game, whether we are nursing a lead or trying to catch up.
Ideas?

[Wander]

I think he's good enough where we just have to live with it, except in the very specific situations at end of games when there's a million time-outs and you can do offense-defense substitutions regularly. He's a pretty good passer, I wonder if we could put him in as the inbounder in late game situations where we know for sure a foul is coming.

[-jk]

He's spent a lot of last-minute time on the bench. I think we're already handling it...

-jk

[UrinalCake]

I'm really surprised VT didn't immediately foul him every time he touched the ball in the last few minutes of regulation and the entire overtime. I know they only had one big dude but they could have just brought a guard over to foul him. And then after their big dude fouled out, their coach was dumb not to just put Oak at the line every time IMO.

I don't think high-pressure free throws are something you can practice. I mean you can get your form down, but the psychological aspect of it can't be replicated. I also think it's rare to see someone make a huge jump in their free throw percentage. Mason was a rare exception his senior year, and strangely enough he has reverted back to his earlier numbers since moving up to the pros.

[Listen to Quants]

In both the Carloina and V.Tech games, we were extremely fortunate, despite some astonishing ineptitude from the free throw line from Jah and Amile. At some point, 50% shooting from the line is going to bite us you know where. I'm hoarse from screaming at the tv screen. We can only do so much defense for offense switching, as we need them on the floor -- especially Jah at the offensive end and Amile on defense. But when either of them rebounds the ball, seems to be a sound strategy to immediately foul them in the last 2+ miuntes of the game, whether we are nursing a lead or trying to catch up.
Ideas?

Very good question. Seems plausible to me. I'm coaching a 16 seed, I get to 7 fouls in the half (maybe even play very rough D and get there fast), then I put in bench players to hack Jah and Amile. I don't know the frequency of rebounding own-miss, but I'd guess it is low enough that the expected value for Duke points-per-possession would fall against that strategy (points-per would be about 0.8 without such rebounds). Gives an over-matched team a chance.

[duketaylor]

My solution would be to get a big enough lead that it's not an issue. Can't use Marshall in the situation, same problem. And Winslow's not much better, if at all.

I also fear it will be the determining factor in NCAA Tourney success/failure.

[InSpades]

I was shocked UNC didn't try to foul Jah at the end of that game (he was 0-6 or something at the line?) and then VT had no answer to him so they certainly should have fouled.

I think teams will be smarter about it going forward... however at the same time there's not too much we can do about it. You can't just sit Jah. Amile doesn't seem to be getting too much run down the stretch anyway so I don't think that's an issue. The best way to avoid it is just to win going away :).

[SCMatt33]

I think the problem for most teams is depth. It easier said than done to just put some guy on him that you don't care about. Most teams don't just have spare big guys to do that. With a smaller guy he can run straight to the rim and score over the top of you. A team like UNC had too much foul trouble with Meeks and Johnson. They could have put in Joel James, but they didn't want to give up having the other guys on offense. VT had the same problem with Pierce, they had no one once he fouled out. After Pierce fouled out they definitely should have done it, but I don't really remember how many chances they had. The only team that truly has the depth of bigs to do it is Kentucky, but they would likely be confident enough in their D to play it straight up.

[duketaylor]

Wisky has plenty of size as does Gonzaga. Both could employ such tactics. Not sure of everyone's rosters, so I'd guess others could as well.

[BD80]

First, we should come up with a better name:

Jab-a-Jah?

Poke-the-Oak?

[SCMatt33]

Wisky has plenty of size as does Gonzaga. Both could employ such tactics. Not sure of everyone's rosters, so I'd guess others could as well.

Gonzaga definitely could. I'm not so sure about Wiscy because of how important Kaminsky is. They'd have to either a) sit Kaminsky for longer than they want, b) have him guard someone else, potentially Winslow if Duke is going small, or c) try to bring a double to foul but risk Okafor getting a play off before it gets there or worse, having Kaminsky called for the foul.

[gcashwell]

My solution would be to get a big enough lead that it's not an issue. Can't use Marshall in the situation, same problem. And Winslow's not much better, if at all.

I also fear it will be the determining factor in NCAA Tourney success/failure.


Marshall is shooting 73% from ft. 76% from the floor. He's not as bad as he looks. Plumlee is also not the only option if Jahlil isn't on the court.

Jah's turnover percentage is something like 18%. Duke's offense and defense are statistically better gene Jah is not on the floor. The answer for what to do if somebody tried the hack-an-oak is to sit Jah, since we are statistically better without him. (I'm not really saying we are better without him, but that is what our offensive and defensive ppp say).

[cato]

Marshall is shooting 73% from ft. 76% from the floor. He's not as bad as he looks. Plumlee is also not the only option if Jahlil isn't on the court.

Jah's turnover percentage is something like 18%. Duke's offense and defense are statistically better gene Jah is not on the floor. The answer for what to do if somebody tried the hack-an-oak is to sit Jah, since we are statistically better without him. (I'm not really saying we are better without him, but that is what our offensive and defensive ppp say).

Now this is catching on?

Looks like I picked the wrong week to stop sniffing glue.

[gcashwell]

Now this is catching on?

Looks like I picked the wrong week to stop sniffing glue.

You have different numbers?

He has to sit in situations where they are willing to foul him. We will play fine if that happens. I don't see why what I said was such a big deal.

[Kedsy]

Marshall is shooting 73% from ft. 76% from the floor. He's not as bad as he looks.

Marshall made his first 10 free throws this season, and since then is shooting 56% from the line. And I realize that's not entirely fair, taking out his good streak, but considering his career FT% is 49% (including the 10 for 10 this season), it's possible the 10 for 10 to start this season was a bit of a fluke. And from the floor, other than that three he hit in the first game of the season, I can't remember him shooting from outside of five feet all season.

So he may (or may not) be a better free throw shooter than Jahlil, but I don't think I'd want to rely on him, either (nor Amile nor Justise).

[gcashwell]

Marshall made his first 10 free throws this season, and since then is shooting 56% from the line. And I realize that's not entirely fair, taking out his good streak, but considering his career FT% is 49% (including the 10 for 10 this season), it's possible the 10 for 10 to start this season was a bit of a fluke. And from the floor, other than that three he hit in the first game of the season, I can't remember him shooting from outside of five feet all season.

So he may (or may not) be a better free throw shooter than Jahlil, but I don't think I'd want to rely on him, either (nor Amile nor Justise).

True. I wouldn't necessarily replace okafor with plumlee either.

[ICP]

Jah's turnover percentage is something like 18%. Duke's offense and defense are statistically better gene Jah is not on the floor. The answer for what to do if somebody tried the hack-an-oak is to sit Jah, since we are statistically better without him. (I'm not really saying we are better without him, but that is what our offensive and defensive ppp say).

And this is exactly why many people believe "analytics" are nonsense...

[gcashwell]

And this is exactly why many people believe "analytics" are nonsense...

I've had the feeling several times when watching jahlil not even raise his hands on defense or brick free throws that we would be better off if he sat a few minutes.

He's fantastic, but he's still a freshman.

[-bdbd]

Best way to "handle it" is to just make the darned free-throws!!!

[Edouble]

First, we should come up with a better name:

Jab-a-Jah?

Poke-the-Oak?

I like "Poke-an-Oke"

[Newton_14]

My solution would be to get a big enough lead that it's not an issue. Can't use Marshall in the situation, same problem. And Winslow's not much better, if at all.

I also fear it will be the determining factor in NCAA Tourney success/failure.

Actually Marshall has greatly improved his FT shooting this season. His stroke looks really good to me, and I would have far more faith in both MP3 and Winslow at the line than I would Jahlil and Amile. Amile went through a stretch earlier where he was shooting FT's pretty well actually, but he has regressed quite a bit recently.

I don't often question Coach K but I did during the VaTech game. For one, I don't think he played MP3 nearly enough in that game. MP3 is a much better defender than Jahlil if we are being honest and I love Jahlil. In that game though, MP3 was not used properly.

The other thing was player management at the end of OT when Vatech was fouling. On one possession, K did put our best FT shooting lineup available with the exception of MP3. He had Quinn, Tyus, Grayson, Matt, and Amile. (Winslow had fouled out and Jahlil was sitting along with MP3). I thought MP3 should have been in for Amile, but he had Amile inbounding so it made sense. The four best FT shooters were on the floor to receive the inbounds pass so it made perfect sense. However, after we inbounded, got fouled, Quinn made the foul shots, we fouled VT. Here is where K had me shaking my head. He sends Jahlil back in and I am going why? Then to compound my perplexity, as Amile heads for the bench, Jahlil waves him off, going, No no, I am in for Matt. I was like "What the heck is he doing?" My thought was, leave it exactly as it is and let Amile inbound it again. The only logical reason I could think of was that K wanted maximum rebounding support in with both Amile and Jahlil on the lowblocks during the VT free throws in case they missed. That I could understand except for the fact that as soon as either one of them got the rebound they were going to get immediately fouled. I would have much rather have seen K send in Marshall rather than Jahlil. Jahlil had done his part by hanging 30 on VT. Why risk allowing Jahlil miss big free throws and possibly lose the game because of it?

Two other observations from the VT game, one humorous.

Note 1. Winslow and Duke got jobbed really bad by referee Brian Kersey late in the game. Jahlil was shooting FT's and missed, and Matt snuck in like always and grabbed a huge rebound, and Kersey inexplicably calls a foul on Winslow. Watching the replay that was a horrible call. (It was Winslow's 4th) Winslow was taking as much contact as he gave and guys do that all the time on FT rebound battling. Horrible Call.

Note 2. The announcers went on and on about how well the VT Freshman Center had a great game against Jahlil and the kid received a standing ovation and got high fives from the entire bench when he fouled out. Um, Hello, he only had 30 points hung on him by the guy he was defending while also fouling out and he only scored like 6 points. In what universe was that a great game?? :)

[dukelifer]

Marshall made his first 10 free throws this season, and since then is shooting 56% from the line. And I realize that's not entirely fair, taking out his good streak, but considering his career FT% is 49% (including the 10 for 10 this season), it's possible the 10 for 10 to start this season was a bit of a fluke. And from the floor, other than that three he hit in the first game of the season, I can't remember him shooting from outside of five feet all season.

So he may (or may not) be a better free throw shooter than Jahlil, but I don't think I'd want to rely on him, either (nor Amile nor Justise).

All these players have had stretches of good free throw shooting. Jah has decent form as does Marshall now- so they have something to build on. Amile seems to be bricking badly. They just need to practice but I suspect this is not going to happen this year. Will just need to hope they get in a groove come tourney time.

[Bob Green]

I don't often question Coach K but I did during the VaTech game. For one, I don't think he played MP3 nearly enough in that game. MP3 is a much better defender than Jahlil if we are being honest and I love Jahlil. In that game though, MP3 was not used properly.



I have to disagree with you here. He might be able to defend (I'm not convinced), but Marshall Plumlee is a total liability on offense. He can't score and he can't grab an offensive rebound. Plumlee has scored 13 points over the past 10 games and been scoreless in five of the 10 games. He has grabbed a total of six offensive rebounds in those games. In four of the 10 games, he had zero offensive rebounds. He has one assist in those 10 games.

When Plumlee is in the game, we are playing four on five on offense.

[jv001]

I have to disagree with you here. He might be able to defend (I'm not convinced), but Marshall Plumlee is a total liability on offense. He can't score and he can't grab an offensive rebound. Plumlee has scored 13 points over the past 10 games and been scoreless in five of the 10 games. He has grabbed a total of six offensive rebounds in those games. In four of the 10 games, he had zero offensive rebounds. He has one assist in those 10 games.

When Plumlee is in the game, we are playing four on five on offense.

And the same could be said about Amile and Matt(at times). I think playing MPIII more improves our defense and gives Jahlil some needed rest. I'm not saying that MPIII deserves 20 mpg but more like 10-12 mpg and I do agree that our offense suffers when he's in the game. But it seems when he's been in for Jahlil, we're increased our lead and I think that's because he plays better defense than Jahlil. He should because he's played Coach K's man2man for 3 years. GoDuke!

[Bob Green]

And the same could be said about Amile and Matt (at times).

Amile Jefferson is in a slump, which is why his playing time has plummeted. However, over the same 10 game stretch he has scored 51 points. Matt Jones has scored 68 points. So no, the same thing cannot be said. Thirteen is a lot different than 51 and 68.

[jv001]

Amile Jefferson is in a slump, which is why his playing time has plummeted. However, over the same 10 game stretch he has scored 51 points. Matt Jones has scored 68 points. So no, the same thing cannot be said. Thirteen is a lot different than 51 and 68.

Over the last 10 games here is the minutes played by all three guys. Amile= 195, Matt= 253, MPIII= 97. The difference in minutes coupled with how each player is used has a lot to do with points scored. I admitted that Marshall is not much of a scorer but he does a good job on defense. Most of the time Marshall is used for setting picks on offense. However there have been times, he's been open under the basket and the ball has not come his way. Of Marshall's 97 minutes, 24 came in the big win over Clemson. He doesn't get those minutes unless Jahlil is injured. There's nothing wrong with our offense(maybe FTs) but we do need to pick it up on the defensive end of the court. That can happen with improvement from Jahlil, more minutes for MPIII or both. GoDuke!

[Newton_14]

I have to disagree with you here. He might be able to defend (I'm not convinced), but Marshall Plumlee is a total liability on offense. He can't score and he can't grab an offensive rebound. Plumlee has scored 13 points over the past 10 games and been scoreless in five of the 10 games. He has grabbed a total of six offensive rebounds in those games. In four of the 10 games, he had zero offensive rebounds. He has one assist in those 10 games.

When Plumlee is in the game, we are playing four on five on offense.

Bob, I hear ya, but I don't think using stats to make your argument is fair. In the last 10 games Marshall has mostly been on the bench. You can't score from there. As for rebounding, up until this year his strength was offensive rebounding, but this season it has reversed. In games where he has gotten more than token minutes he has rebounded well defensively. As for the 4 on 5, for one we are often like that with Amile on the floor, though Amile is a better scorer than Marshall, he just forgets it's ok for him to score during long stretches sometimes. :) However, with Marshall, again, token minutes, and when he is in, we never post him up anymore. K has him on the perimeter running around setting screens. (Which is another reason his offensive rebounding has dropped in my opinion). I am not saying he is ALL ACC caliber or anything, but Marshall can play. I thought he was great in the first half of this season. He also can score. When given post up opportunities he has fared pretty well, scoring with solid jumphooks with either hand. He is not good at catching quick passes from guards right at the rim, as he still gets too excited in those situations though. We can agree to disagree. That's fine. I just think he had a very solid first half of the season then for whatever reason K cut his minutes way back and he barely gets into games anymore beyond token minutes. No kid is going to rack up stats of any kind in that scenario.

I know Kedsy dug up his FT stats, but again I attribute the drop to be related to the very limited minutes he gets anymore. I still say I would rather have him at the line than Jahlil or Amile.

My two cents..

[Papa John]

Bob, I hear ya, but I don't think using stats to make your argument is fair. In the last 10 games Marshall has mostly been on the bench. You can't score from there.

I pulled up the same stats, getting ready to zing Bob in the same manner you and jv001 have. Interestingly enough, however, I think the stats might better support Bob's argument. If you look at offensive production in points per minute on the floor over the 10 games in question, Amile comes in at .26, Matt at .27, and Marshall at .13... So Marshall gives you 50 percent less production offensively than either Amile or Matt, based on the raw numbers, so seems Bob (and Coach K, given he is ultimately the one deciding to give Marshall fewer minutes) may have a point [no pun intended].

Now, granted, this does not take into consideration what else each brings to the table, as I clearly didn't look at other stats... But offensively, I was surprised to learn that the ppm numbers actually support Bob's argument, not the other way around...

[Newton_14]

I pulled up the same stats, getting ready to zing Bob in the same manner you and jv001 have. Interestingly enough, however, I think the stats might better support Bob's argument. If you look at offensive production in points per minute on the floor over the 10 games in question, Amile comes in at .26, Matt at .27, and Marshall at .13... So Marshall gives you 50 percent less production offensively than either Amile or Matt, based on the raw numbers, so seems Bob (and Coach K, given he is ultimately the one deciding to give Marshall fewer minutes) may have a point [no pun intended].

Now, granted, this does not take into consideration what else each brings to the table, as I clearly didn't look at other stats... But offensively, I was surprised to learn that the ppm numbers actually support Bob's argument, not the other way around...
Well first, Bob's a smart guy and knows this game well, so that's not surprising, and I have been wrong before so this won't be a first!

What I would say though is that Amile and Matt have gotten far more minutes over that span than Marshall even with Amile's minutes being down drastically since his slump started. When you only get into games a few minutes here and there, it is very hard to get into any kind of rhythm, and again with Marshall getting no post opportunities, and running around setting screens, I don't know how anyone expects him to score. He got far more scoring opportunities earlier in the season. I have noticed recently that the offense appears to be different when Marshall gets in games now than it was earlier in the year. My eyes may be fooling me but it looks a lot different than before.

[jv001]

I pulled up the same stats, getting ready to zing Bob in the same manner you and jv001 have. Interestingly enough, however, I think the stats might better support Bob's argument. If you look at offensive production in points per minute on the floor over the 10 games in question, Amile comes in at .26, Matt at .27, and Marshall at .13... So Marshall gives you 50 percent less production offensively than either Amile or Matt, based on the raw numbers, so seems Bob (and Coach K, given he is ultimately the one deciding to give Marshall fewer minutes) may have a point [no pun intended].

Now, granted, this does not take into consideration what else each brings to the table, as I clearly didn't look at other stats... But offensively, I was surprised to learn that the ppm numbers actually support Bob's argument, not the other way around...

I'm not arguing that MPIII is a better offensive player than Matt or Amile. But we also need to take in consideration how the three players are used. Of the 3 players, Matt is used to drive the ball and set up for kick out 3s. Therefore he has the best chance to score. Amile has the next best chance to score because he's more athletic and can cut into the lane for a quick pass from Jahlil. He's not a threat to shoot from over 3 feet from the basket. Marshall is even more limited. He doesn't catch the quick pass that Tyus, Quinn or Justise sometimes feed him. His hands are just not that good. MPIII is not used as an offensive weapon. He's used to set picks. My main point was that MPIII is better on defense than Jahlil. GoDuke!

[DBFAN]

Does anyone have the numbers for Jah's free throws in end game situations. I may be wrong but it seems as though he settles in better the longer the game goes. May be a concentration issue or simply could be legs being more tired and not shooting it as hard

[uh_no]

Does anyone have the numbers for Jah's free throws in end game situations. I may be wrong but it seems as though he settles in better the longer the game goes. May be a concentration issue or simply could be legs being more tired and not shooting it as hard

I've never gotten that perception. IT seems to me he shoots about his average regardless of situation....of course I don't have numbers.

[Troublemaker]

First, we should come up with a better name:

Jab-a-Jah?

Poke-the-Oak?

Kill Jahlil

Drill Jahlil

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I have to disagree with you here. He might be able to defend (I'm not convinced), but Marshall Plumlee is a total liability on offense. He can't score and he can't grab an offensive rebound. Plumlee has scored 13 points over the past 10 games and been scoreless in five of the 10 games. He has grabbed a total of six offensive rebounds in those games. In four of the 10 games, he had zero offensive rebounds. He has one assist in those 10 games.

When Plumlee is in the game, we are playing four on five on offense.

MP3 just really truly has bad handles. I think his instincts have actually gotten pretty good over the last few years, but he seems susceptible to trying to move too quickly when the ball comes to him. I'm optimistic that he will be pretty damned good next year. If we didn't have Jah, I think K would be engineering our offense more around his abilities, such as they are.

On defense, MP3 is good when he can get his feet in position. When he can't, you can go ahead an book a foul as soon as the ball handler comes near.

I think he's had nice, slow development and will be a serviceable starter next year.

[Bob Green]

Bob, I hear ya, but I don't think using stats to make your argument is fair.

The eye test paints Plumlee in worse light.


Now, granted, this does not take into consideration what else each brings to the table, as I clearly didn't look at other stats... But offensively, I was surprised to learn that the ppm numbers actually support Bob's argument, not the other way around...

Thank you for the assist.


Well first, Bob's a smart guy and knows this game well, so that's not surprising...

Thanks for the kind words. I'm not sure how smart I am, but I have watched a lot of basketball for a lot of years so I believe I formulate solid viewpoints based on experience.


MP3 just really truly has bad handles.

One of the reasons I say we play four on five on offense is because the other Duke players are reluctant to pass the ball to Plumlee. The difficulty in executing the pick and roll is the player rolling is typically open and in position to receive the pass for a very short period of time. It is a bit of a bang-bang play and our guards/wings rarely pull the trigger on the pass when it is Plumlee rolling.

This is my last post in this thread on the subject as I really did not intend to bash Plumlee, I intended to communicate playing Plumlee more minutes is not the answer to the "Hack a Jah" issue. Hopefully, Plumlee has a career game tonight against Syracuse so I can enjoy a nice dinner of BBQ crow.

[InSpades]

Jah's turnover percentage is something like 18%. Duke's offense and defense are statistically better gene Jah is not on the floor. The answer for what to do if somebody tried the hack-an-oak is to sit Jah, since we are statistically better without him. (I'm not really saying we are better without him, but that is what our offensive and defensive ppp say).

The notion that Duke's offensive is better w/ Jah on the bench is laughable. What is his offensive rebounding percentage? He gets way more offensive rebounds than he does turnovers. Oh, he's also shooting 65% from the floor. He commands double teams against virtually everyone.

The issue that Duke's offense is barely better than 1 PPP when Jah is at the line is a bit of an issue.

[Henderson]

On the Hack-A-Jah issue...

One thing this thread hasn't addressed much is the risk to the team doing the fouling. It's not obviously a good strategy in my view.

1. He might score anyway, and maybe he gets a free throw to boot.
2. If you foul too lightly, #1 is likely; if you foul too obviously, Duke might get 2 FTs and the ball.
3. If you have your best post players in the game, and they foul Okafor, you run the risk of a depleted front line.
4. If you put lesser post players in to foul Okafor, you have lesser post players, and that might mean Okafor easily dishes off for someone else to score or you suffer elsewhere on the court.
5. Okafor might make the freethrows.
6. You give up the chance of a clean stop in favor of (statistically) Okafor scoring 1(+).

It seems like a desperation late-game scenario to me. And if that's the case, proper substitutions (defense/offense) and making sure you have Quinn and Tyus handling the ball, I think things should be covered as well as can be.

[InSpades]

On the Hack-A-Jah issue...

One thing this thread hasn't addressed much is the risk to the team doing the fouling. It's not obviously a good strategy in my view.

1. He might score anyway, and maybe he gets a free throw to boot.
2. If you foul too lightly, #1 is likely; if you foul too obviously, Duke might get 2 FTs and the ball.
3. If you have your best post players in the game, and they foul Okafor, you run the risk of a depleted front line.
4. If you put lesser post players in to foul Okafor, you have lesser post players, and that might mean Okafor easily dishes off for someone else to score or you suffer elsewhere on the court.
5. Okafor might make the freethrows.
6. You give up the chance of a clean stop in favor of (statistically) Okafor scoring 1(+).

It seems like a desperation late-game scenario to me. And if that's the case, proper substitutions (defense/offense) and making sure you have Quinn and Tyus handling the ball, I think things should be covered as well as can be.

I don't see it as desperation at all. In any close late-game situation it could be advantageous.

5 and 6 are just part of the strategy. Okafor is a 54% free throw shooter. If shooting 2 then it's equivalent to 1.08 points per possession (slightly more w/ the chance of an offensive rebound). According to KenPom we are the best offensive team in the country. 1.08 points is probably a good deal for most teams. He may make both, he may miss both... that's results oriented thinking.

Incidentally... if we are not in the bonus then Okafor shooting 1 and 1 at 54% is about .81 points per possession. At that point it is a no brainer to foul him. You can also look at the free throws he's taken so far to judge how he looks at the line. Against UNC he looked awful... I would've bet even money on him missing both if they fouled him again.

You're up 2 late in the game... do you want Okafor taking the ball down low against you? Do you double him and leave a 40% shooter open for a 3? Or do you foul Jah and take your chances? As a Duke fan the last option is my least favored.

[uh_no]

Incidentally... if we are not in the bonus then Okafor shooting 1 and 1 at 54% is about .81 points per possession.

May be just a typo, but
2*.54^2 + .54*.46 = .83

[Henderson]

I don't see it as desperation at all. In any close late-game situation it could be advantageous.

5 and 6 are just part of the strategy. Okafor is a 54% free throw shooter. If shooting 2 then it's equivalent to 1.08 points per possession (slightly more w/ the chance of an offensive rebound). According to KenPom we are the best offensive team in the country. 1.08 points is probably a good deal for most teams. He may make both, he may miss both... that's results oriented thinking.

Incidentally... if we are not in the bonus then Okafor shooting 1 and 1 at 54% is about .81 points per possession. At that point it is a no brainer to foul him. You can also look at the free throws he's taken so far to judge how he looks at the line. Against UNC he looked awful... I would've bet even money on him missing both if they fouled him again.

You're up 2 late in the game... do you want Okafor taking the ball down low against you? Do you double him and leave a 40% shooter open for a 3? Or do you foul Jah and take your chances? As a Duke fan the last option is my least favored.

I totally get your points about my 5th and 6th points -- they do point out the statistical likelihood that Okafor will make a season-average percentage of shots.

But I can't agree with the rest of your analysis. Your hypothetical "late-game" scenario could mean a lot of different situations, each with its own dynamic. :02 is different fom 3:02, as I think you'll agree.

The post also ignores the risks that

Okafor will make the basket despite the foul;

The opposing team might be too obvious leading to FTs and the ball;

The presense on the court of an opponent's lesser players who can take fouls and what that means to the rest of the opponent's on court presense (your lesser players on the court at crunch time?!);

The giving up on the idea of defensive stops (including what that does to team morale);

The ability of Duke to sub offense and defense late in the game; and

The possible foul trouble created by best-players committing the fouls (think overtime).

An opposing team can't sustain that strategy except late in the game. Otherwise they run out of decent post players with potentially nothing to show for it. In some situations at the end of a game, maybe it works, maybe it doesn't. But it's definitely not risk-free. And my view is that coaches understand the risks, which is why we haven't seen more of it.

[Dukehky]

College teams don't do the intentional fouling like they do in the nba. There are stretches during games where the Clippers barely get the ball inbounds before someone grabs Deandre Jordan. When Jah gets fouled, he is usually shooting a shot. As long as that continues to the the case, we're fine. There is no such thing as hack a jah, only people trying to play defense on him and fouling him.

I wish people would stop trying to pick apart Okafor's game. The Ewing Theory, even if it could possibly be real (it's not) is not in effect here. Jesus, we beat the hell out of a terrible road team without him and the Ewing theory comes into play? Then he misses 7 free throws after scoring 30 points against a team that was lights out from 3 on top of poor perimeter defense.

Jahlil is an incredible offensive player, and is not a good defensive player. Marshall is not a very good offensive player and an average defensive player at very best. Jah is a good rebounder. There is no discussion here. Jah needs to play as much as he is able to without being tired down the stretch. I think Marshall could be serviceable in a twin towers zone, but Jah is being rested less and less as the season goes on.

[SCMatt33]

I don't think that teams should be worried to much about him getting a shot off when they do it, as long as he's being guarded by another center. In that case, it's pretty easy to foul him on the catch with his back to the basket. Once he's posting up like that, most of his moves are pretty slow in developing and leave ample opportunity to execute the foul. The problem becomes that a) most teams aren't deep at center and can't afford to have them give up the foul and b) if you try to bring a guard to do it, you really are running the risk of him getting a shot off and c) if you have a guard cover him straight up, he can go to the rim and score over the top of you on a pass.

When you really look at it, there haven't been too many opportune chances for it this year. You have to have Duke in the single bonus as we've shown that 2 shots makes it questionable in terms of value. You have to have someone on him who's not in foul trouble. Duke has to give him the ball with his back to the basket. This probably hasn't happened quite so often as Jah usually puts the guy guarding him in some kind of foul trouble. I really would want my guy to pick up his fourth on that kind of play so your limited to centers with 2 fouls or less late in the game which is not overly common

[InSpades]

May be just a typo, but
2*.54^2 + .54*.46 = .83

Yes. Bad math in my head. Maybe I was just looking a day into the future :P.



College teams don't do the intentional fouling like they do in the nba. There are stretches during games where the Clippers barely get the ball inbounds before someone grabs Deandre Jordan. When Jah gets fouled, he is usually shooting a shot. As long as that continues to the the case, we're fine. There is no such thing as hack a jah, only people trying to play defense on him and fouling him.

I wish people would stop trying to pick apart Okafor's game. The Ewing Theory, even if it could possibly be real (it's not) is not in effect here. Jesus, we beat the hell out of a terrible road team without him and the Ewing theory comes into play? Then he misses 7 free throws after scoring 30 points against a team that was lights out from 3 on top of poor perimeter defense.

Jahlil is an incredible offensive player, and is not a good defensive player. Marshall is not a very good offensive player and an average defensive player at very best. Jah is a good rebounder. There is no discussion here. Jah needs to play as much as he is able to without being tired down the stretch. I think Marshall could be serviceable in a twin towers zone, but Jah is being rested less and less as the season goes on.

I agree that college teams don't do it (possibly something to do w/ a lack of depth) but that doesn't mean that it won't happen (or shouldn't happen). I think we all agree that there are situations where other teams should be doing it (in small doses at least).

I also agree that the talk about us being better off w/out Jah on the court is preposterous. I also think in some ways he's better on defense than he gets credit for. He's bad at help defense... I think he's shown flashes of being decent at covering other bigs 1-on-1. Doesn't matter... he's an offensive force and a very good rebounder. We need as much as we can get out of him (and he's been providing in abundance).

[Indoor66]

I think this thread is underselling Okafor. His defense is, overall, quite good. It is my OPINION that he operates from a perspective that he must play smart and not go for every block and every rebound to preserve his fouls and, thusly, court time. His play reminds me of a lot of the pro bigs. If they are blocked out or out of position on a play they do not attempt the super play. IMO this is playing smart.

As to foul shooting, it seems to me that the issue is between the ears and will be up and down (mostly down) all year. Darn these 19 year olds who aren't perfect!

[NYBri]

Fouling Jah doesn't necessarily mean he won't score. He finishes through contact really well, and not many in the collage game can be assured that their foul won't end up being an and-one. Even if he misses the FT, it's still 2 pts and just an added foul.

Fouling before he gets a shot off may not work because he gets tons of touches and the team has got to give away 6 fouls before the 1&1 kicks in.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Fouling Jah doesn't necessarily mean he won't score. He finishes through contact really well, and not many in the collage game can be assured that their foul won't end up being an and-one. Even if he misses the FT, it's still 2 pts and just an added foul.

Fouling before he gets a shot off may not work because he gets tons of touches and the team has got to give away 6 fouls before the 1&1 kicks in.

If I am the opposing team, I'm doing Hack-A-Jah all day long. It's a very effective strategy, although it is awful basketball. Opposing players - if given the order - can absolutely foul Jahlil and make sure Jahlil doesn't finish for an And-1. Jah is incredibly strong, but an opposing player intentionally fouling so you can't score often trumps getting an And-1. Fortunately, it looks like the majority of teams aren't using this strategy, so we're safe. For now.

And consider this - during the St John's game until now, Jah is shooting an abysmal 40% from the line. That's a 10 game stretch. Whether mental or mechanical, this is an issue for Okafor. Hopefully, it won't be an issue for Duke.

Not sure there is anything that Duke can do at this point to mitigate the problem. The "put Jah in, take Jah out" strategy is a fairly effective one, but it close games, we obviously want Jah in. Let's hope he's having an "on" game from the line.

[Listen to Quants]

May be just a typo, but
2*.54^2 + .54*.46 = .83

Perhaps, if the lost attempts from missed front ends of 1and1s just balance the gains from Duke rebounding a FT miss.

At a minimum, a 16/15 seed would be tempted to turn to the strategy as their best chance, and any team should be very tempted to stick in the backup center to hack Jah when Duke is in the 1and1. Valvano rode a smart fouling strategy and a lot of luck to a championship.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

If I am the opposing team, I'm doing Hack-A-Jah all day long. It's a very effective strategy, although it is awful basketball. Opposing players - if given the order - can absolutely foul Jahlil and make sure Jahlil doesn't finish for an And-1. Jah is incredibly strong, but an opposing player intentionally fouling so you can't score often trumps getting an And-1. Fortunately, it looks like the majority of teams aren't using this strategy, so we're safe. For now.

And consider this - during the St John's game until now, Jah is shooting an abysmal 40% from the line. That's a 10 game stretch. Whether mental or mechanical, this is an issue for Okafor. Hopefully, it won't be an issue for Duke.

Not sure there is anything that Duke can do at this point to mitigate the problem. The "put Jah in, take Jah out" strategy is a fairly effective one, but it close games, we obviously want Jah in. Let's hope he's having an "on" game from the line.

There's your potential problem right there. If refs see the foul as intentional - which is much more likely if he isn't in the act of shooting, and thusly a danger to score and get the FT - then you risk giving up the FTs and not having the opportunity for the ball. I agree, the "hack-a-blank" is more of an NBA phenomenon. At least, as far as "fouling a bad shooter on every possession." Now, if I'm an opposing coach and have enough bodies on the bench, do I tell my guys to play as aggressive as possible if the ball comes to him in the paint? You bet.

Meanwhile... it would be much simpler to just hit your free throws.

[Henderson]

There's your potential problem right there. If refs see the foul as intentional - which is much more likely if he isn't in the act of shooting, and thusly a danger to score and get the FT - then you risk giving up the FTs and not having the opportunity for the ball. I agree, the "hack-a-blank" is more of an NBA phenomenon. At least, as far as "fouling a bad shooter on every possession." Now, if I'm an opposing coach and have enough bodies on the bench, do I tell my guys to play as aggressive as possible if the ball comes to him in the paint? You bet.

Meanwhile... it would be much simpler to just hit your free throws.

It would be sweet for a team to go full-on Hack-a-Jah and get burned. He scores through the foul and makes the FT! Key player for opposing team is limited by fouls and has to sit! Lesser players employed to give up fouls and are exposed on the defensive end! Then Jah goes 8-8 from the line, and the nonsense stops, exposing the risky strategy as risky indeed.

[DukeCrow]

Am I imagining things, or did Jah go to the MP2 strategy of not dribbling before taking his FTs? He was only 3 of 6 last night, but that was still better than many of his abysmal performances at the line lately. Maybe this will get his numbers up enough to mitigate any Hackafor strategy during the tournament.

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

I seriously wonder if his hands are so large that it makes it hard for him to hold the ball correctly for a FT. He appears to hold the ball in his palm which can do all kinds of crazy things as the ball comes off his hand. Think about when you were a kid playing with a mini ball on a short hoop. It's awkward holding and shooting a ball that is so small in your hand. I don't know. His form isn't that bad. The ball just comes off his hand like a boulder. And the flight path of his shots is just so inconsistent. It looks more like he's chucking the ball toward the rim than flicking it up there with his wrist like better free throw shooters are able to do. Why haven't we called that Gary Boren guy from Dallas?