Our team is not deep. Should Coach and assistants have done more to prevent it?

[Steven43]

Many DBR posters have been saying with increasing frequency that we are not a deep team. I concur and it bothers me. I can't help but wonder how we got to this point and whether or not our coaching staff has done everything possible to shore up the team for this season and beyond. Just in the past two-plus years we have had freshman Michael Gbinije transfer (April 2012), sophomore Alex Murphy transfer (December 2013), sophomore Semi Ojeleye transfer (December 2014), and junior Rasheed Sulaimon dismissed from the team (January 2015). Obviously one can't always know for sure that a player is considering transferring, but I'd be willing to bet the warning signs were there with each of these players, just as the warning signs were evidently quite obvious to the coaching staff that Sulaimon was on shaky ground for at least the past two seasons.

In our most recent game against UNC only six Duke players reached double figures. And that was in a game that went overtime against a deep Carolina team. The players that reached double-figures were Quinn Cook (45 min), Tyus Jones (43 min), Jahlil Okafor (41 min), Amile Jefferson (29 min), Justise Winslow (29 min), and Matt Jones (27 min). How much better would we have been been if some of those minutes had been spread amongst Gbinije, Murphy, Sulaimon, and Ojeleye? Granted, we don't really know how any of them would have played had they all remained at Duke, and Sulaimon was outright dismissed so I probably shouldn't even be mentioning him, but still. I have to believe that those guys could have helped us considerably against UNC and for the rest of the season and beyond (though this would have been Gbinije's senior year).

I feel that it must also be mentioned that we have recruited quite a few players the past several years that we could have--or SHOULD have--known were likely, or at least possible, one-and-dones, putting even more emphasis on the need to be proactive in regard to recruiting. Does anyone have any thoughts? Are you happy with what the coaching staff has done in response to this ever-shifting dynamic within our team?

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

Oy. Should we rename this the "We're having a magical season but instead of enjoying it let's worry about the fuzzy future and things we can't control" thread?

[chadlee989]

I like when we have a short bench. It gives me less of a chance to say why is player x not getting more playing time. Because we all know that coach is going to shorten the bench once we get to the big games anyway. It saves me the head scratching.

[kAzE]

Sean Kelly is not getting enough playing time. FREE SEAN KELLY

[FerryFor50]

Many DBR posters have been saying with increasing frequency that we are not a deep team. I concur and it bothers me. I can't help but wonder how we got to this point and whether or not our coaching staff has done everything possible to shore up the team for this season and beyond. Just in the past two-plus years we have had freshman Michael Gbinije transfer (April 2012), sophomore Alex Murphy transfer (December 2013), sophomore Semi Ojeleye transfer (December 2014), and junior Rasheed Sulaimon dismissed from the team (January 2015). Obviously one can't always know for sure that a player is considering transferring, but I'd be willing to bet the warning signs were there with each of these players, just as the warning signs were evidently quite obvious to the coaching staff that Sulaimon was on shaky ground for at least the past two seasons.

In our most recent game against UNC only six Duke players reached double figures. And that was in a game that went overtime against a deep Carolina team. The players that reached double-figures were Quinn Cook (45 min), Tyus Jones (43 min), Jahlil Okafor (41 min), Amile Jefferson (29 min), Justise Winslow (29 min), and Matt Jones (27 min). How much better would we have been been if some of those minutes had been spread amongst Gbinije, Murphy, Sulaimon, and Ojeleye? Granted, we don't really know how any of them would have played had they all remained at Duke, and Sulaimon was outright dismissed so I probably shouldn't even be mentioning him, but still. I have to believe that those guys could have helped us considerably against UNC and for the rest of the season and beyond (though this would have been Gbinije's senior year).

I feel that it must also be mentioned that we have recruited quite a few players the past several years that we could have--or SHOULD have--known were likely, or at least possible, one-and-dones, putting even more emphasis on the need to be proactive in regard to recruiting. Does anyone have any thoughts? Are you happy with what the coaching staff has done in response to this ever-shifting dynamic within our team?

This is all very revisionist.

I don't know if more minutes for Murphy, Gbinijie, Ojeleye, etc would have prevented a transfer. And would it have meant more, or less, success in those seasons if K had gone the Roy Williams route of "play everyone with a pulse"?

For one, given how Murphy has played for Florida, do you *really* think he'd be an improvement over what Duke already has? As for Gbinijie, he's having a great season for Syracuse, but it's mainly because his usage % is WAY up to 19.3 from 14.4 last year. That's out of necessity due to injuries and early departures at Syracuse (sound familiar? This happens all over the NCAA).

Gbinijie would not be seeing the same usage at Duke this season, most likely.

As for Ojeleye, he wanted to likely be closer to home *and* play more. He played at a position Duke is deepest at. Even with Sheed leaving, do you think he would have played more? Maybe. But would 5 min per game be enough?

Unforeseen circumstances, by definition, cannot be foreseen. You can't prep for these things and play guys who aren't ready/as good just in case something bad happens 2 years later.

[tbyers11]

Many DBR posters have been saying with increasing frequency that we are not a deep team. I concur and it bothers me. I can't help but wonder how we got to this point and whether or not our coaching staff has responsded appropriatedly and done everything possible to shore up the team for this season and beyond. Just in the past two-plus years we have had freshman Michael Gbinije transfer (April 2012), sophomore Alex Murphy declare transfer (December 2013), sophomore Semi Ojeleye transfer (December 2014), and junior Rasheed Sulaimon dismissed from the team (January 2015). Obviously one can't always know for sure that a player is considering transferring, but I'd be willing to bet the warning signs were there with each of these players, just as the warning signs were evidently quite obvious to the coaching staff that Sulaimon was on shaky ground for at least the past two seasons.

Due to our thin bench in our most recent game against UNC only six players reached double figures. And that was in a game that went overtime against a deep Carolina team. The players that reached double-figures in minutes player were Quinn Cook (45 min), Tyus Jones (43 min), Jahlil Okafor (41 min), Amile Jefferson (29 min), Justise Winslow (29 min), and Matt Jones (27 min). How much better would we have been been if a big portion of those minutes were spread amongst Gbinije, Murphy, Sulaimon, and Ojeleye? Granted, we don't really know how any of them would be currently playing had they all remained at Duke, and Sulaimon was outright dismissed so I probably shouldn't even be mentioning him, but still. I have to believe that those guys could have helped us considerably against UNC and for the rest of the season and beyond (though this would have been Gbinije's senior year).

I feel, also, that it must also be mentioned that we have recruited quite a few players the past several years that we could have--or SHOULD have--known were likely, or at least possible, one-and-dones, puttingeven more emphasis on the need to be proactive in regard to recruiting. Does anyone have any thoughts? Are you happy with what the coaching staff has done in response to this ever-shifting dynamic within our team?

I'm not worried about our depth. We only ever play 8 anyway. I think 8 is the optimal amount for a college rotation. (Numbers 7 and 8 getting a little more PT relative to numbers 1-5 is a different question) Obviously our margin for injury is smaller, but if Tyus or Jahlil get hurt that would be a really bad thing whether or not Semi and Rasheed were still on the team.

Transfers happen and I think that Semi's was a bit more of a surprise than others, but if you recruit a couple more people that are good but not great recruits (say RSCI 30-60) who is to say that they are not going to transfer as well.

Rasheed is a special case. Even from my outsiders perspective you could tell that there had been issues for awhile. However, I don't really think anyone saw outright dismissal as an endpoint. If the staff thought that dismissal of Rasheed was a likely issue last year then, yes, we probably should have tried to get another PG/SG type. However, I really think that was the case.

Also, with regard to the future PG situation, I think that everyone thought that Tyus was at least a 2 year guy. Jim Sumner said in a post here this fall that the staff thought Tyus was definitely a 2 year guy. The fact that he is blowing up and could go pro next year caught everyone guard a bit.

So, while we are not deep in the actual sense of having 10+ scholarship players I think our depth is fine and think that the staff has mostly handled the situation in the correct manner.

[Seattle Hoo]

A playing rotation of 8 is fine as long as the 7 and 8 guys get enough minutes to keep 1-5 from having too many, and you have a fair distribution of basketball skills in the bench players. Duke seems to have that. Where only having 8 scholarship players could be hurting you is if the practice guys aren't good enough to give the level of practice preparation you need. Not having any idea what your practice players are like, I can't comment on that. But from what I see of the playing rotation, I think the depth is fine. You have Plumlee in rotation in the paint and Winslow can slide to the 4 when needed. Matt Jones gives good wing minutes. The Allen kid looks good and seemed to do well against Carolina. Cook can play the point when Jones needs to go out. I don't see a problem.

Not that I want to see them do this, but Duke might be well served to go after more guys like the ones UVA gets and make blended classes that have some superstuds and some roleplayers, so you have more guys stick around. It appears to me as an outsider that everyone Duke recruits is a superstud, so they either go pro or transfer out seeking minutes, leaving you perpetually young and (relatively) thin. The team wouldn't be as talented, but it might be a better team.

[sagegrouse]

The last four years, by my calculation, we have had four new recruited players join the roster. Our average the previous 22 years was 3.1. If our experience is like last year -- where only Matt Jones is left in the second semester of his second year -- that's not enough. We have one, two and one from classes that began play with the 2012, 2013, and 2014 season. If that trend continues -- then we probably need to bring in five new players each year in order to have five or six experienced players. Yikes! I don't see that happening.

Next year we have Obi, Jeter and Kennard and -- maybe -- one more. But, if we lose three of our freshmen, we will still only have four sophomores and above on the roster.

[JamminJoe]

Also, if Gbinije had not transferred and was looking pretty good for Duke as he is for Syracuse right now, Justise may not have committed to Duke. So you can't really have both in your hypothetical case.

[OldPhiKap]

So -- we recruit one-and-dones, and so they don't stick around.

We recruit four year guys, and some transfer because they don't want to wait.

Not sure the coaches could do much more. This would not be an issue but for the Rasheed thing.

I'm more than happy with how the coaches have addressed the changing landscape of basketball.

[fgb]

So -- we recruit one-and-dones, and so they don't stick around.

We recruit four year guys, and some transfer because they don't want to wait.

Not sure the coaches could do much more. This would not be an issue but for the Rasheed thing.

I'm more than happy with how the coaches have addressed the changing landscape of basketball.

i do think the gbinije situation is a shame, but more for his sake. he would have been a pretty perfect fit for this team; had he stayed, he'd likely be the 6th man on a top four team. instead, he's a 6th man on a team that's banned from the post season this year.

[flyingdutchdevil]

So -- we recruit one-and-dones, and so they don't stick around.

We recruit four year guys, and some transfer because they don't want to wait.

Solution: recruit only 2-star and 3-star athletes. 1) they don't leave early and 2) they will patiently wait cus they are playing for an absolute powerhouse and can develop.

The only downside I see is going to a tournament once in a blue moon (if ever), losing a ton of Alumni donations, a mass exodus of key staff, an 80%+ drop-off in revenue, and becoming the laughing stock of the ACC (ala Northwestern to the Big 10. No offense to Chris Collins).

[Troublemaker]

You could actually look at it like this: Duke has flexed its excellent depth once already this season. We lost Rasheed to dismissal, but what would be the difference (as far as roster impact) if we had lost him to a season-ending injury instead? At the time of his dismissal, Sheed had spent most of the season as Duke's 6th man. But because of Duke's excellent perimeter depth, we haven't missed a beat since.

It's true we might not be able to handle an additional player loss, but for now, we're just playing Duke's typical 7.5 man rotation. And it's a strong one.

[uh_no]

we should have redshirted steve johnson to keep him available for this year.

[mo.st.dukie]

The mere fact that we have lost two players from the roster and still have 8 very capable players shows the staff did an excellent job buidling depth.

[OldPhiKap]

Solution: recruit only 2-star and 3-star athletes. 1) they don't leave early and 2) they will patiently wait cus they are playing for an absolute powerhouse and can develop.

The only downside I see is going to a tournament once in a blue moon (if ever), losing a ton of Alumni donations, a mass exodus of key staff, an 80%+ drop-off in revenue, and becoming the laughing stock of the ACC (ala Northwestern to the Big 10. No offense to Chris Collins).

. . . . maybe bring in Herb Sendek and play the Princeton Offense to neutralize our athletic disadvantage . . . .

[GGLC]

The last four years, by my calculation, we have had four new recruited players join the roster. Our average the previous 22 years was 3.1. If our experience is like last year -- where only Matt Jones is left in the second semester of his second year -- that's not enough. We have one, two and one from classes that began play with the 2012, 2013, and 2014 season. If that trend continues -- then we probably need to bring in five new players each year in order to have five or six experienced players. Yikes! I don't see that happening.

Next year we have Obi, Jeter and Kennard and -- maybe -- one more. But, if we lose three of our freshmen, we will still only have four sophomores and above on the roster.

This is the most important and salient concern, in my view.

[rocketeli]

It's terrible! If we don't have a deep bench how can we have all those threads about how so and so isn't getting enough playing time? It could be the end of theDBR forum as we know it!

[Steven43]

Oy. Should we rename this the "We're having a magical season but instead of enjoying it let's worry about the fuzzy future and things we can't control" thread?

Hmm, I'm not sure how wishing we had more bench depth justifies such a response. First of all, I never said I am not enjoying the season. From what did you glean that nugget of presumption? I enjoy watching every single Duke game, to varying degrees, of course. Beyond that, did you even watch the UNC game? Did you see how fortunate we were to have escaped with a victory at home by the thinnest of margins? By all rights we should have lost that game. UNC outscored us by almost 20 points from about the midpoint of the first half until 1:38 was left in regulation. And that was at home with our crowd in a frenzy (and I was there cheering for Duke as loudly as anyone in that stadium, I think). They pretty much manhandled, pushed around, and repeatedly dunked all over our significantly smaller, team for much of the game. And this was a UNC team that got absolutely demolished by mediocre Pittsburgh just a few days earlier. Did you see the Miami game at Cameron? Their guards completely DOMINATED and crushed us on our home court. Did you see a mediocre NC State complete control the second half against us?

Yes, we have had some significant and impressive victories this year, but couldn't you say the same thing about our regular seaons during two of the past three campaigns only to be followed by shocking and embarrassing (yes, embarrassing) losses in the first round of the NCAA tournament to very low seeds while we were a highly-seeded No. 2 and No. 3, respectively? What makes you think this year is going to be appreciably different? Because we have a thin bench? And tell me how you honestly feel about our chances on the road against UNC in the rematch. To be sure, I am going to be cheering for Duke loudly and enthusiastically during that game. But after seeing the way this game played out I can't say that my confidence is extremely high for a Duke victory. Perhaps we will get another amazing performance from our peerless PG, Tyus Jones, and he will again find a way to steal a win against a bigger, deeper, opponent. Here's hoping lightning strikes twice.

[Jeffrey]

Hmm, I'm not sure how wishing we had more bench depth justifies such a response. First of all, I never said I am not enjoying the season. From what did you glean that nugget of presumption? I enjoy watching every single Duke game, to varying degrees, of course. Beyond that, did you even watch the UNC game? Did you see how fortunate we were to have escaped with a victory at home by the thinnest of margins? By all rights we should have lost that game. UNC outscored us by almost 20 points from about the midpoint of the first half until 1:38 was left in regulation. And that was at home with our crowd in a frenzy (and I was there cheering for Duke as loudly as anyone in that stadium, I think). They pretty much manhandled, pushed around, and repeatedly dunked all over our significantly smaller, team for much of the game. And this was a UNC team that got absolutely demolished by mediocre Pittsburgh just a few days earlier. Did you see the Miami game at Cameron? Their guards completely DOMINATED and crushed us on our home court. Did you see a mediocre NC State complete control the second half against us?

Yes, we have had some significant and impressive victories this year, but couldn't you say the same thing about our regular seaons during two of the past three campaigns only to be followed by shocking and embarrassing (yes, embarrassing) losses in the first round of the NCAA tournament to very low seeds while we were a highly-seeded No. 2 and No. 3, respectively? What makes you think this year is going to be appreciably different? Because we have a thin bench? And tell me how you honestly feel about our chances on the road against UNC in the rematch. To be sure, I am going to be cheering for Duke loudly and enthusiastically during that game. But after seeing the way this game played out I can't say that my confidence is extremely high for a Duke victory. Perhaps we will get another amazing performance from our peerless PG, Tyus Jones, and he will again find a way to steal a win against a bigger, deeper, opponent. Here's hoping lightning strikes twice.

Hi,

IMO, this is actually one of Coach K's best years of his entire career for some of the reasons you mentioned. Coach has shown much more willingness to adapt, modify, and revise in a timely manner. He has rebuilt confidence to a Nov./early Dec. level and partially offset many of our weaknesses (mostly D), while dealing with his first ever dismissal.

UNC played an awesome game (their best of the year) and still lost. We only made 16 of 31 FTs and won. Not bad coaching, at all. We were down 79-72 with 1:38 left and K convinced our team they would win, our players believed, and our players succeeded.

IMO, Coach K's performance and this year's team is much better than you appear to believe!

[flyingdutchdevil]

Hmm, I'm not sure how wishing we had more bench depth justifies such a response. First of all, I never said I am not enjoying the season. From what did you glean that nugget of presumption? I enjoy watching every single Duke game, to varying degrees, of course. Beyond that, did you even watch the UNC game? Did you see how fortunate we were to have escaped with a victory at home by the thinnest of margins? By all rights we should have lost that game. UNC outscored us by almost 20 points from about the midpoint of the first half until 1:38 was left in regulation. And that was at home with our crowd in a frenzy (and I was there cheering for Duke as loudly as anyone in that stadium, I think). They pretty much manhandled, pushed around, and repeatedly dunked all over our significantly smaller, team for much of the game. And this was a UNC team that got absolutely demolished by mediocre Pittsburgh just a few days earlier. Did you see the Miami game at Cameron? Their guards completely DOMINATED and crushed us on our home court. Did you see a mediocre NC State complete control the second half against us?

Yes, we have had some significant and impressive victories this year, but couldn't you say the same thing about our regular seaons during two of the past three campaigns only to be followed by shocking and embarrassing (yes, embarrassing) losses in the first round of the NCAA tournament to very low seeds while we were a highly-seeded No. 2 and No. 3, respectively? What makes you think this year is going to be appreciably different? Because we have a thin bench? And tell me how you honestly feel about our chances on the road against UNC in the rematch. To be sure, I am going to be cheering for Duke loudly and enthusiastically during that game. But after seeing the way this game played out I can't say that my confidence is extremely high for a Duke victory. Perhaps we will get another amazing performance from our peerless PG, Tyus Jones, and he will again find a way to steal a win against a bigger, deeper, opponent. Here's hoping lightning strikes twice.

I don't get this. What does this have to do with not having a deep team? If anything, getting "manhandled, pushed around, and repeatedly dunked all over the our significantly smaller, team for much of the game" shows our defense was awful against UNC (and it was). It ain't a depth thing.

If you can provide evidence where Coach K has played more than 8 players in February and March, please do. And note that having 9+ players doesn't mean playing 9+ players. Kedsy has provided amazing analysis showing that Coach K's benches are fairly short. Coach K has always used the philosophy of playing your best players the most.

Also, this isn't the NBA, where teams sometimes play 4 games in 7 days with a 48 minute game. College basketball is only 40 games long over a 5 month period. That equates to one game every 3.75 days.

I am really confused about the depth question that keeps on coming up. There are concerns about this team, most notably health and defense. IMO, depth isn't one of these issues at all.

[Li_Duke]

Beyond over-recruiting and being put in a position to kick someone off the team if we end up with more than 13 scholarship players, I'm not sure if we could have done much more to prevent it.

At the start of last year, we had 12 players with 3 seniors and 1 guy very likely to go pro. We landed 4 recruits early and left a scholarship open for Turner (putting us between 12-13 players -- Turner's wasn't deciding until Spring, so we could always withdraw the offer if Parker returned). Alex transfered; Rodney blew up; he and Jabari left early, and Turner doesn't come.

That left us with 10 players with 1 senior and 1 guy very likely to go pro. We accept a transfer and 2 early recruits with Ingram also offered. Again, we're flirting with the max of 13. Semi transfers, Rasheed gets dismissed, and now Tyrus and Justise are possible pros. We start recruiting Swanigan. So we'll be between 7-12 next year. We could theoretically go after 1 other guy at most (but most good prospects are committed and it doesn't prevent the 7 possibility).

So what could we have done:
1. Offer more guys to offset guys going early. Trade-off is having to kick players off team if we end up with too many.
2. Play our bench guys more. Trade-off is we might win less and those bench guys might transfer anyway. How many minutes would have changed their mind?
3. Recruit less talented players to avoid having guys go early. Trade-off is we probably win less, and we don't get the thrill of seeing the best players in a Duke uniform.

In my opinion, we're doing fine. We faced some bad scenarios in regards to folks leaving early/transferring/getting dismissed, and we still have 8 quality players and one of the best teams in the country. Isn't that amazing? Maybe we should ask instead "How do our coach and assistants plan so well?".

Worse case scenario next year is 7 guys with 2 seniors. But all 7 of those guys can play; we'll still be a good team. And considering Coach K has pretty much flirted with the max 13 when extending offers, I'm just imagining the potential for a massive, very talented, 8 player recruiting class for 2016.

[Billy Dat]

Did you see the Miami game at Cameron? Their guards completely DOMINATED and crushed us on our home court. Did you see a mediocre NC State complete control the second half against us?

Yes, we have had some significant and impressive victories this year, but couldn't you say the same thing about our regular seaons during two of the past three campaigns only to be followed by shocking and embarrassing (yes, embarrassing) losses in the first round of the NCAA tournament to very low seeds while we were a highly-seeded No. 2 and No. 3, respectively? What makes you think this year is going to be appreciably different? Because we have a thin bench?

The team has 3 losses and some insane wins. It has been years since we have had this many quality wins, especially true road games, so I would not say we are on track for an early NCAA exit. Yeah, we looked bad in the losses you cite, but most teams look bad in games they lose.

I'll give Cal credit at Kentucky in that he does strike a good balance in terms of getting a lot of guys playing time, but he may be the only guy who had cracked that code. I like getting one-and-done talent, I don't love K's short bench, but it is a fact of life. With his end closer than his beginning, I don't see K changing any of this in a meaningful way - he's gonna go for the best talent he can get and he's only going to play 7 of them regular minutes.

[Troublemaker]

And tell me how you honestly feel about our chances on the road against UNC in the rematch. To be sure, I am going to be cheering for Duke loudly and enthusiastically during that game. But after seeing the way this game played out I can't say that my confidence is extremely high for a Duke victory. Perhaps we will get another amazing performance from our peerless PG, Tyus Jones, and he will again find a way to steal a win against a bigger, deeper, opponent. Here's hoping lightning strikes twice.

Maybe something occurs between now and March 7th to change my mind, but as of today, I feel great about the re-match. It feels like it did two years ago when UNC gave us their best shot in Cameron (but still lost) and Duke goes to Chapel Hill and gives them our best shot (and wins easily).

[GGLC]

Worse case scenario next year is 7 guys with 2 seniors. But all 7 of those guys can play; we'll still be a good team.

I agree with the first half of your second sentence, but I'm not so sure about the latter part. If Tyus, Justise, and Jahlil all go pro and we don't add anyone else, our roster of scholarship players next year would look like this:

Marshall Plumlee
Amile Jefferson
Sean Obi
Chase Jeter
Matt Jones
Grayson Allen
Luke Kennard

That's it. Unless Jeter is ready to start alongside Marshall and Amile and can guard other teams' small forwards (something that I have not heard of being in his current skillset), we would have literally zero backcourt depth. Not minimal depth, but literally none. We would be relying on Matt, Grayson, and Luke to all go as close to 40 minutes per game as they could, every game. And our wing depth overall would be terrible regardless, unless Justin Robinson turns out to be a huge surprise beyond anyone's expectations.

What does your proposed depth chart look like here? We have three players who can only play in the post, none of whom have shown any sustained ability to stretch defenses with a jump shot, one relatively unknown quantity in Jeter who is also largely a post player, and three guards for whom ballhandling at most a secondary/complementary skill. That's neither a balanced lineup nor a deep one, regardless of how talented each individual player might be.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I agree with the first half of your second sentence, but I'm not so sure about the latter part. If Tyus, Justise, and Jahlil all go pro and we don't add anyone else, our roster of scholarship players next year would look like this:

Marshall Plumlee
Amile Jefferson
Sean Obi
Chase Jeter
Matt Jones
Grayson Allen
Luke Kennard

That's it. Unless Jeter is ready to start alongside Marshall and Amile and can guard other teams' small forwards (something that I have not heard of being in his current skillset), we would have literally zero backcourt depth. Not minimal depth, but literally none. We would be relying on Matt, Grayson, and Luke to all go as close to 40 minutes per game as they could, every game. And our wing depth overall would be terrible regardless, unless Justin Robinson turns out to be a huge surprise beyond anyone's expectations.

What does your proposed depth chart look like here? We have three players who can only play in the post, none of whom have shown any sustained ability to stretch defenses with a jump shot, one relatively unknown quantity in Jeter who is also largely a post player, and three guards for whom ballhandling at most a secondary/complementary skill. That's neither a balanced lineup nor a deep one, regardless of how talented each individual player might be.

I agree with this post. Our front court is gonna be awesome next year. Lots of depth, lots of talent, lots of experience.

But this is why everyone is convinced Coach K is getting an additional backcourt player next year, whether it be a graduated transfer or a frosh. Look at the minutes available! Especially at the 1/3. One player would help, 2 would be nicer. But I'm willing to bet a truck load of money that we're getting Ingram or a PG transfer.

[Li_Duke]

I agree with the first half of your second sentence, but I'm not so sure about the latter part. If Tyus, Justise, and Jahlil all go pro and we don't add anyone else, our roster of scholarship players next year would look like this:

Marshall Plumlee
Amile Jefferson
Sean Obi
Chase Jeter
Matt Jones
Grayson Allen
Luke Kennard

That's it. Unless Jeter is ready to start alongside Marshall and Amile and can guard other teams' small forwards (something that I have not heard of being in his current skillset), we would have literally zero backcourt depth. Not minimal depth, but literally none. We would be relying on Matt, Grayson, and Luke to all go as close to 40 minutes per game as they could, every game. And our wing depth overall would be terrible regardless, unless Justin Robinson turns out to be a huge surprise beyond anyone's expectations.

What does your proposed depth chart look like here? We have three players who can only play in the post, none of whom have shown any sustained ability to stretch defenses with a jump shot, one relatively unknown quantity in Jeter who is also largely a post player, and three guards for whom ballhandling at most a secondary/complementary skill. That's neither a balanced lineup nor a deep one, regardless of how talented each individual player might be.

Going into 2010, our roster was:
Zoubek
Thomas
Plumlee
Plumlee
Kelly
Singler
Smith
Scheyer

Only Scheyer (playing a new position), Singler (had only played PF and C), and Thomas were proven commodities, yet we managed ok. Granted, we got Dawkins to come early, and that team was loaded with upperclassmen, but I think those 7 (and Robinson), unbalanced and with no backcourt depth, is still good enough to be an NCAA team. It's still a good team relative to most Division 1 teams -- even if it is below what we're use to.

[Duke4life92]

Oy. Should we rename this the "We're having a magical season but instead of enjoying it let's worry about the fuzzy future and things we can't control" thread?

Excellent point,but if he did that he would literally have nothing else to talk about.Guess coaching staff needs to hire madam x(mind readers/fortune tellers name inserted)to figure out ahead of time what these kids are thinking at all times so that we never run into depth issues.jmo

[flyingdutchdevil]

Going into 2010, our roster was:
Zoubek
Thomas
Plumlee
Plumlee
Kelly
Singler
Smith
Scheyer

Only Scheyer, Singler, and Thomas were proven commodities, yet we managed ok. Granted, we got Dawkins to come early, and that team was loaded with upperclassmen, but I think those 7 (and Robinson), unbalanced and with no depth, is still good enough to be an NCAA team. It's still a good team relative to most Division 1 teams -- even if it is below what we're use to.

The problem is that we don't even have a Dawkins-like player. If Kennard, Grayson, or Jones gets in foul trouble or (God forbid) injured, what do we do? Have Amile play the 3? When was the last time Coach K had a three who didn't take mid-rangers or 3pters? If, and only IF, Winslow and Tyus go pro and we don't get another backcourt player, depth will be an issue.

[Li_Duke]

But this is why everyone is convinced Coach K is getting an additional backcourt player next year, whether it be a graduated transfer or a frosh. Look at the minutes available! Especially at the 1/3. One player would help, 2 would be nicer. But I'm willing to bet a truck load of money that we're getting Ingram or a PG transfer.

I'm in agreement. Someone (and probably more than one) is going to jump at the possibility of playing rotation minutes at Duke next year. In 2010, our lack of backcourt players led to getting Curry by transfer (he wasn't eligible to play until the next year, but the (flawed?) reasoning was that there would still be minutes then) and Dawkins coming a year early.

[GGLC]

Going into 2010, our roster was:
Zoubek
Thomas
Plumlee
Plumlee
Kelly
Singler
Smith
Scheyer

Only Scheyer (playing a new position), Singler (had only played PF and C), and Thomas were proven commodities, yet we managed ok. Granted, we got Dawkins to come early, and that team was loaded with upperclassmen, but I think those 7 (and Robinson), unbalanced and with no backcourt depth, is still good enough to be an NCAA team. It's still a good team relative to most Division 1 teams -- even if it is below what we're use to.

In addition to what fdd said about Dawkins, and the fact that we had several capable wing ball-handlers who could play multiple positions,, the difference between 8 players (your list above) and 7 players (my list) is far from trivial.

Can you indulge my request and give me your perceived depth chart and minutes distribution for the scenario where we end up with seven scholarship players next year?

[SoCalDukeFan]

Balancing a roster with NBA early entry, transfers, recruiting competition, and getting guys into your school is not easy. If you think it is, call Steve Alford at UCLA.

IMHO Coach K has done a great job this year dealing with a transfer and a dismissal.

I do think that there is great value in players life Jefferson and Cook who are 4 year guys. The problem is finding players who are good enough to play for Duke but don't good enough to leave early. And when you think you have one, he might blow up and leave early anyway or maybe he's not really good enough.

I will let next year take its course and am convinced that K and staff will at least go into the season with enough quality players. I am concerned because the uncheaters might be very good with lots of experience.

SoCal

[GGLC]

Also, with respect to the 2010 roster, having three All-American caliber players tends to cure a lot of ills.

[CDu]

Also, with regard to the future PG situation, I think that everyone thought that Tyus was at least a 2 year guy. Jim Sumner said in a post here this fall that the staff thought Tyus was definitely a 2 year guy. The fact that he is blowing up and could go pro next year caught everyone guard a bit.

I agree with the overall point of your post, but I do want to comment on this particular part. The staff knew Jones was going to be REALLY good when they were recruiting him. He was a top-10 prospect throughout his high school career. If they were caught off guard by the possibility that he might go pro, then that is a mistake. In this era, I think you have to operate under the assumption that any elite recruit is a threat to be a one-and-done. That's just the nature of the business these days.

So I don't think it is accurate to say that the staff was caught off guard (at least I hope they weren't). I would think (hope) that it is more accurate to say that they made the calculated gamble that at least one of the following would happen:
1. Jones stays two years
2. Sulaimon stays four years and develops into a PG option by his junior/senior year

The reasoning behind the gamble is twofold: (1) lack of great PGs in this year's class; (2) REALLY targeting some elite guys in next year's class.

Unfortunately, #2 went out the window already, and #1 is of course shaky.

[Wander]

The players that reached double-figures were Quinn Cook (45 min), Tyus Jones (43 min), Jahlil Okafor (41 min), Amile Jefferson (29 min), Justise Winslow (29 min), and Matt Jones (27 min). How much better would we have been been if some of those minutes had been spread amongst Gbinije, Murphy, Sulaimon, and Ojeleye?

We would have lost the game.

(well, maybe not with Gbinije).

[Billy Dat]

Balancing a roster with NBA early entry, transfers, recruiting competition, and getting guys into your school is not easy. If you think it is, call Steve Alford at UCLA.


Or, to aim even higher, call Billy Donovan, Tom Izzo and Jim Boeheim this season with Tom Crean hanging on nearby.

It's very, very hard not to have a down season when you recruit one and done talent every year. A couple of unexpected early entries, transfers, missed recruits and/or injuries can easily mean missing the NCAAs. Even Kentucky wound up in the NIT in 2013!

[flyingdutchdevil]

Or, to aim even higher, call Billy Donovan, Tom Izzo and Jim Boeheim this season with Tom Crean hanging on nearby.

It's very, very hard not to have a down season when you recruit one and done talent every year. A couple of unexpected early entries, transfers, missed recruits and/or injuries can easily mean missing the NCAAs. Even Kentucky wound up in the NIT in 2013!

I think this is what makes Bill Self so underrated. He somehow always wins the Big 12 and gets his teams in the tourney. What is Kansas on? 25 straight NCAA tournaments? That's insane.

[Billy Dat]

I agree with the overall point of your post, but I do want to comment on this particular part. The staff knew Jones was going to be REALLY good when they were recruiting him. He was a top-10 prospect throughout his high school career. If they were caught off guard by the possibility that he might go pro, then that is a mistake. In this era, I think you have to operate under the assumption that any elite recruit is a threat to be a one-and-done. That's just the nature of the business these days.

So I don't think it is accurate to say that the staff was caught off guard (at least I hope they weren't). I would think (hope) that it is more accurate to say that they made the calculated gamble that at least one of the following would happen:
1. Jones stays two years
2. Sulaimon stays four years and develops into a PG option by his junior/senior year

The reasoning behind the gamble is twofold: (1) lack of great PGs in this year's class; (2) REALLY targeting some elite guys in next year's class.

Unfortunately, #2 went out the window already, and #1 is of course shaky.

And that's why the best programs have to be ready to wheel and deal in the ever growing, increasingly vital transfer market, especially those eligible to play right away, and also facile at convincing former redshirt recruits to reclassify!

[FerryFor50]

I think this is what makes Bill Self so underrated. He somehow always wins the Big 12 and gets his teams in the tourney. What is Kansas on? 25 straight NCAA tournaments? That's insane.

Well he's only on year 12 of that run. So he's not even half responsible yet. :)

Don't think he's underrated though. I hear his name mentioned all the time as one of the coaching greats. Just needs a few more years of sustained success and you'll hear it more.

[sagegrouse]

I agree with this post. Our front court is gonna be awesome next year. Lots of depth, lots of talent, lots of experience.

But this is why everyone is convinced Coach K is getting an additional backcourt player next year, whether it be a graduated transfer or a frosh. Look at the minutes available! Especially at the 1/3. One player would help, 2 would be nicer. But I'm willing to bet a truck load of money that we're getting Ingram or a PG transfer.

Additional backcourt help? I vote for Tyus Jones.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Additional backcourt help? I vote for Tyus Jones.

Sadly, Sage, I just don't see it. Not the way he's been playing lately and in big games.

However, I am always the glass half-empty kinda guy, so I hope Tyus proves me wrong!

[CDu]

And that's why the best programs have to be ready to wheel and deal in the ever growing, increasingly vital transfer market, especially those eligible to play right away, and also facile at convincing former redshirt recruits to reclassify!

Yup. Many have held to the antiquated notion that we should be above the transfer market. But in the world of one-and-dones, there are going to be cases like next year where we are REALLY short on players. And in those cases, it makes sense to explore all avenues of talent acquisition, not just high school players. It may not materialize in any given year, but it shouldn't be ignored.

And I'd argue that the transfer market is more likely to be fruitful at PG (where there is way more depth of talent out there) than big men.

[davekay1971]

I think Duke should probably take an academic department, staff it with an ethically challenged department head and administrative assistant, and use it to make sure our athletes don't ever have spend any time working on academics AND can still stay eligible. In case any athletes feel this is still asking too much, we can use the academic support staff to write their papers for them and help with other incidentals, like parking tickets. We can allow agents and runners open access to the athletes to make sure the guys are never short cash, clothes, cars, out of state trips to parties, guns, or weed. No need for them to struggle with the basics while in school. Living that kind of no-work, all-bennies lifestyle should encourage guys on the fence to stick around.

It's brilliant! What could possibly go wrong?

[Billy Dat]

Many have held to the antiquated notion that we should be above the transfer market.

Do you think they, the many, rooted for Roshown, Dahntay, Seth and Rodney, and, Sean Obi, next year and beyond? Methinks they did.

It is amazing how much building a college team has begun to resemble building a pro team...US high school kids, foreign players, transfers of many different kinds, walk-ons who would normally get scholarships elsewhere, junior college players, etc.

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

Hmm, I'm not sure how wishing we had more bench depth justifies such a response. First of all, I never said I am not enjoying the season. From what did you glean that nugget of presumption? I enjoy watching every single Duke game, to varying degrees, of course. Beyond that, did you even watch the UNC game? Did you see how fortunate we were to have escaped with a victory at home by the thinnest of margins? By all rights we should have lost that game. UNC outscored us by almost 20 points from about the midpoint of the first half until 1:38 was left in regulation. And that was at home with our crowd in a frenzy (and I was there cheering for Duke as loudly as anyone in that stadium, I think). They pretty much manhandled, pushed around, and repeatedly dunked all over our significantly smaller, team for much of the game. And this was a UNC team that got absolutely demolished by mediocre Pittsburgh just a few days earlier. Did you see the Miami game at Cameron? Their guards completely DOMINATED and crushed us on our home court. Did you see a mediocre NC State complete control the second half against us?

Yes, we have had some significant and impressive victories this year, but couldn't you say the same thing about our regular seaons during two of the past three campaigns only to be followed by shocking and embarrassing (yes, embarrassing) losses in the first round of the NCAA tournament to very low seeds while we were a highly-seeded No. 2 and No. 3, respectively? What makes you think this year is going to be appreciably different? Because we have a thin bench? And tell me how you honestly feel about our chances on the road against UNC in the rematch. To be sure, I am going to be cheering for Duke loudly and enthusiastically during that game. But after seeing the way this game played out I can't say that my confidence is extremely high for a Duke victory. Perhaps we will get another amazing performance from our peerless PG, Tyus Jones, and he will again find a way to steal a win against a bigger, deeper, opponent. Here's hoping lightning strikes twice.
I was being snarky and probably didn't need to be. Yes, I did watch the UNC game. I've watched every game. For 20+ years.

I think others have made all necessary points that were floating thru my mind when I snarked your post... Our staff is pretty amazing. But they can't see into the future. Yet with all the challenges we still have an amazing team. Having a pretty incredible season. And because some unexpected things have happened, they are almost certainly busy executing plans to head off a potential dearth of scholarship players for next season.

I have full faith and will stick to enjoying the heck out of this year. And will wait to see how next year in fact shakes out before I start wringing my hands. Which I may end up doing anyway despite my complete inability to do anything about it. One thing is certain, I won't be questioning the decisions our staff has made or will make when it comes to managing the program. They won my faith a long time ago.

[Billy Dat]

I think Duke should probably take an academic department, staff it with an ethically challenged department head and administrative assistant, and use it to make sure our athletes don't ever have spend any time working on academics AND can still stay eligible. In case any athletes feel this is still asking too much, we can use the academic support staff to write their papers for them and help with other incidentals, like parking tickets. We can allow agents and runners open access to the athletes to make sure the guys are never short cash, clothes, cars, out of state trips to parties, guns, or weed. No need for them to struggle with the basics while in school. Living that kind of no-work, all-bennies lifestyle should encourage guys on the fence to stick around.

It's brilliant! What could possibly go wrong?

I am afraid we might wind up coughing up late, seemingly insurmountable leads in the final minutes to our cross town rivals if we went this route.

[CDu]

Do you think they, the many, rooted for Roshown, Dahntay, Seth and Rodney, and, Sean Obi, next year and beyond? Methinks they did.

I sure hope they did (and will continue to do so).


It is amazing how much building a college team has begun to resemble building a pro team...US high school kids, foreign players, transfers of many different kinds, walk-ons who would normally get scholarships elsewhere, junior college players, etc.

Yup. The world is changing in many ways. As is college basketball.

And I had completely forgotten about our one foray into the JuCo market! But yes, that's also not a bad place to look for (especially) a PG option. There should be tons of those guys available.

And before someone mentions academics, I suspect that this is less of a hurdle than folks think. Not insignificant, but I suspect not as challenging as it may seem.

[davekay1971]

I am afraid we might wind up coughing up late, seemingly insurmountable leads in the final minutes to our cross town rivals if we went this route.

And our coach may start hoarding time-outs to sacrifice to the Basketball Gods, in repayment for his cheatin' ways...

[Li_Duke]

Can you indulge my request and give me your perceived depth chart and minutes distribution for the scenario where we end up with seven scholarship players next year?

Haha, ok, I'll give it a shot.

Jones 35 minutes*
Allen 35 minutes*
Kennard 35 minutes*
Jefferson 15 minutes at the 3, 15 minutes at the 4**
Obi 25 minutes at center***
Plumlee 15 minutes at center, 5 minutes at the 4****
Jeter/Robinson 20 minutes at the 4*****

*Quinn plays over 35, so I'm going to assume all 3 of these guys can handle 35 minutes. We'll pray they don't get into foul trouble.
**When he was recruited, I recall him mentioning Duke told him they'd prepare him to play the 3 eventually. Well, here is his chance. On defense, at least, I think he'll be ok. On offense, I hope he finally develops a mid-range jumper.
***He played 26 minutes/game at Rice.
****I'll predict fewer minutes for him since he hasn't ever played more than 9 and his style of play requires a lot of energy. I think he can handle the 4 some as we've paired him with Okafor a few times.
*****I don't know how mobile Jeter and Robinson are or whether they have a mid-range shot. I'm going to be conservative and assume they are more mobile than Obi/Plumlee but less so than Amile. I'm also going to assume that they are offensive challenged and the least ready to play of our bigs.

On defense, we'll be extra long. That and rebounding will have to be our calling card. Our back court will need to sit back rather than press as they can't afford to tire themselves out or get in foul trouble. On offense, we're going to look to use that size to set plenty of screens and hit the boards. When one of our three back court players are out, we look to grind it out on defense as spacing will be tight for effective offense. We'll also play at a slow pace (to minimize our lack of depth).

[CDu]

Haha, ok, I'll give it a shot.

Jones 35 minutes*
Allen 35 minutes*
Kennard 35 minutes*
Jefferson 15 minutes at the 3, 15 minutes at the 4**
Obi 25 minutes at center***
Plumlee 15 minutes at center, 5 minutes at the 4****
Jeter/Robinson 20 minutes at the 4*****

*Quinn plays over 35, so I'm going to assume all 3 of these guys can handle 35 minutes. We'll pray they don't get into foul trouble.
**When he was recruited, I recall him mentioning Duke told him they'd prepare him to play the 3 eventually. Well, here is his chance. On defense, at least, I think he'll be ok. On offense, I hope he finally develops a mid-range jumper.
***He played 26 minutes/game at Rice.
****I'll predict fewer minutes for him since he hasn't ever played more than 9 and his style of play requires a lot of energy. I think he can handle the 4 some as we've paired him with Okafor a few times.
*****I don't know how mobile Jeter and Robinson are or whether they have a mid-range shot. I'm going to be conservative and assume they are more mobile than Obi/Plumlee but less so than Amile. I'm also going to assume that they are offensive challenged and the least ready to play of our bigs.

On defense, we'll be extra long. That and rebounding will have to be our calling card. Our back court will need to sit back rather than press as they can't afford to tire themselves out or get in foul trouble. On offense, we're going to look to use that size to set plenty of screens and hit the boards. When one of our three back court players are out, we look to grind it out on defense as spacing will be tight for effective offense. We'll also play at a slow pace (to minimize our lack of depth).

It would be a team well-suited to play zone (with Kennard/Jones and Jefferson playing the SF spot and nobody shorter than 6'3"). It would also be an... interesting... experiment on offense, with no true PG, few capable 3pt shooters, and no true post scorer.

[DukieInBrasil]

with regard to PGs and/or combo guards for the 2015/16 season, i think the staff would be well served by trying an all-of-the-above approach: go hard after the best remaining un-committed HS Sr. (BRHSS), try to land a well-regarded HS Sr. (WRHSS) who will stick around 4 years, and try to entice a 5th yr. grad student transfer.

IF all of those things happen, we'd still only have 10 players (if all 3 of the Fr. stars go pro). IF all of those happens and it turns out the grad student transfer isn't so great?: well, he would be gone at the end of the year and no harm done; if the WRHSS doesn't get much PT he'll probably stick around anyway and see what unfolds for him in his So. year; if the BRHSS isn't 1&D and sticks around for his So. year, perhaps the WRHSS transfers mid- or post So. season.

In my mind, none of those scenarios is particularly bad, and leaves the staff with enough flexibility and time to find the talent they want/need, yet still leaves the team with plenty of depth to deal with any number of scenarios during the season. If the BRHSS is 1&D, and the WRHSS transfers at the end of his Fr. year, i still don't see how the program is hurt in any way.
The only negative to the all-of-the-above option described above is if one or more of those guys creates major chemistry problems. If all of the 3 are not nearly as good as expected during that year, the only damage would be that two scholarships might be tied up for 3 additional years, although either/both may transfer at some point.

Having only 7 scholarship players (plus Robinson) would be a problem, but mostly because there is not a true, or even proven acceptable alternative, PG on the roster. If Robinson turns out to be more effective than your typical walk-on, it still wouldn't solve the lack of depth in the backcourt, although K may go rogue and play a 3 bigs-2 guard style. That can work if all of the players are effective passers, however, MP3 has not shown himself to be a gifted passer from the C position, Amile has a decent touch but not great, no idea about Obi or Jeter, Matt Jones and Allen have shown themselves to be ok at worst, and Kennard has a reputation as a good passer, but at the HS level. So i'm not sure that scenario plays out all that well.

If Okafor, Tyus and Justise all go pro after this year, it will create an interesting scenario for next year, to say the least.

[DukieInBrasil]

I sure hope they did (and will continue to do so).

And I had completely forgotten about our one foray into the JuCo market! But yes, that's also not a bad place to look for (especially) a PG option. There should be tons of those guys available.


Who was our JuCo transfer?

[FerryFor50]

Who was our JuCo transfer?

Carrick Felix. But does that really count? He left before he really ever got here.

[DukieInBrasil]

Carrick Felix. But does that really count? He left before he really ever got here.

got it, i don't count him as a Blue Devil since he never showed up on campus to play. same as i don't count Kris Humphries or Shawn Livingston, even though both accepted offers but didn't show up to play.

[CDu]

Carrick Felix. But does that really count? He left before he really ever got here.


got it, i don't count him as a Blue Devil since he never showed up on campus to play. same as i don't count Kris Humphries or Shawn Livingston, even though both accepted offers but didn't show up to play.

Well, he did actually show up on campus. He just chose not to enroll ultimately and de-committed. The point was not that Felix played at Duke. It was that we actively recruited him. The willingness to bring a JuCo in was what I was referencing. The fact that he didn't end up coming is why I had forgotten about him.

[jv001]

All this discussion makes me even more determined to enjoy this years team. I don't mind discussing future teams, recruits and even possible transfers. It is the internet. I love watching these guys play. There seems to be no bickering, no cliques, no head dropping and these guys really root for each other. One of the announcers commented on how Jahlil was so excited on a three that Quinn made. He basically he was as happy as if he (Jahlil) had made the shot. I give our senior guard, Quinn Cook high praise for the "family atmosphere" that surrounds this squad. With 4 freshman in the rotation and all playing well, it would be easy for Amile, MPIII, Matt and Quinn to be jealous. I have not seen any jealousy from any of these guys. I'm hoping at the end of this season, we have a wonderful story to tell how these guys came together and pulled off an amazing run to the FF with a NCAAT Championship. But if that doesn't happen, I'll still be happy if they just keep playing the way they are now. GoDuke!

PS: Try to find a Billy King type player for next season. A top notch defender that can guard multiple positions. You know the shut down guy that might can't shoot straight, but can cause the guy he's guarding to not shoot straight either. GoDuke!

[CDu]

All this discussion makes me even more determined to enjoy this years team. I don't mind discussing future teams, recruits and even possible transfers. It is the internet. I love watching these guys play. There seems to be no bickering, no cliques, no head dropping and these guys really root for each other. One of the announcers commented on how Jahlil was so excited on a three that Quinn made. He basically he was as happy as if he (Jahlil) had made the shot. I give our senior guard, Quinn Cook high praise for the "family atmosphere" that surrounds this squad. With 4 freshman in the rotation and all playing well, it would be easy for Amile, MPIII, Matt and Quinn to be jealous. I have not seen any jealousy from any of these guys. I'm hoping at the end of this season, we have a wonderful story to tell how these guys came together and pulled off an amazing run to the FF with a NCAAT Championship. But if that doesn't happen, I'll still be happy if they just keep playing the way they are now. GoDuke!

PS: Try to find a Billy King type player for next season. A top notch defender that can guard multiple positions. You know the shut down guy that might can't shoot straight, but can cause the guy he's guarding to not shoot straight either. GoDuke!

I think that Matt Jones is that guy. Though hopefully he can shoot too.

[Jeffrey]

Yes, we have had some significant and impressive victories this year, but couldn't you say the same thing about our regular seaons during two of the past three campaigns only to be followed by shocking and embarrassing (yes, embarrassing) losses in the first round of the NCAA tournament to very low seeds while we were a highly-seeded No. 2 and No. 3, respectively?

Hi,

IMO, this is your most valid coaching concern of recent years.

[MarkD83]

Sadly, Sage, I just don't see it. Not the way he's been playing lately and in big games.

However, I am always the glass half-empty kinda guy, so I hope Tyus proves me wrong!

As if we need another bit of proof that Coach K knows what he is doing...the issue with a thin roster is that there are players that come to Duke and then their games become incredibly better than expected and they leave early then we as fans expect. This is a testament to Coach K and his ability to recognize talent and nurture it.

We need to enjoy today. If Tyus was not as good as he has become (and for that matter Justise) we would be looking at 6-7 additional losses this year. Duke might also be considered a bubble team and instead of talking about a run to a Final Four we would be wondering if Duke even makes the tournament.

You can do the math if you want to but here is what I recall off the top of my head. Duke is 10-3 and 23-3. We could have loses to UNC, Wisc., St. Johns, UVA, GT, Wake, FSU, but do not because of the play of Tyus and Justise (among others). That would put Duke at 5-8 and 16-10. So would we prefer that Coach K not have an eye for talent and be able to coach them up. Enjoy today or we could be talking about being on the NCAA bubble.

[jv001]

I think that Matt Jones is that guy. Though hopefully he can shoot too.

I hope you're right about Matt being that type player. Though he's not as long as Billy and certainly can't leap like Sky King. But Matt is a better shooter than BK. I'll never forget seeing a pre-game scrimmage of former Duke players. Billy actually made a long jumper and the crowd went nuts. He was one of my favorites. GoDuke!

[Kedsy]

Beyond that, did you even watch the UNC game? Did you see how fortunate we were to have escaped with a victory at home by the thinnest of margins? By all rights we should have lost that game. UNC outscored us by almost 20 points from about the midpoint of the first half until 1:38 was left in regulation. And that was at home with our crowd in a frenzy (and I was there cheering for Duke as loudly as anyone in that stadium, I think). They pretty much manhandled, pushed around, and repeatedly dunked all over our significantly smaller, team for much of the game. And this was a UNC team that got absolutely demolished by mediocre Pittsburgh just a few days earlier.

First of all, UNC was a top 15 team playing in a hyped up rivalry game. And a one game example doesn't prove anything, although having said that I'm not sure what you think the UNC game was an example of. And we won.

As others have said, the biggest fallacy in your argument is your belief that if we'd have more players available we would have employed those players. Except Coach K has a looooong history of not doing that. I assume if we still had Rasheed, he would have played, but that Grayson would probably not have played, and if Semi was still around he almost certainly wouldn't have played either. Which means we still would have only played 8 guys, although Rasheed probably would have played double-figure minutes, so maybe we would have had seven guys doing that instead of six.

Although this brings up a second fallacy in your reasoning. If Rasheed had played and taken 5 of Quinn's minutes and 5 of Tyus's minutes and 5 of Matt's minutes, you seem to be assuming that our team would have won the game by more than we did. But since Quinn and Tyus played amazingly well in the game, and Matt made several big plays too, it's more than possible that if we'd had another player in the mix we would have performed worse, and actually lost the game.


Did you see the Miami game at Cameron? Their guards completely DOMINATED and crushed us on our home court. Did you see a mediocre NC State complete control the second half against us?

Again, you appear to be assuming that our losing those games had something to do with a lack of depth, and there's no evidence of that. We did have Rasheed in both those games, for one thing. Also, against State, we had nine players available but only seven of them played more than 5 minutes, so having even more depth wouldn't have helped us at all in that game. Against Miami, again with nine players available, we only had six guys play double-figure minutes (just like against UNC -- go figure), so again additional depth wouldn't have helped. Although in that game, three guys played between 6 and 10 minutes (meaning nine guys played 6+ minutes), but if you consider that using our depth then we did use it and it didn't help.

Bottom line is, "deep" teams lose games too. If you believe we would be undefeated if we'd had more players available, I don't think anybody would agree with you.


Yes, we have had some significant and impressive victories this year, but couldn't you say the same thing about our regular seaons during two of the past three campaigns only to be followed by shocking and embarrassing (yes, embarrassing) losses in the first round of the NCAA tournament to very low seeds while we were a highly-seeded No. 2 and No. 3, respectively? What makes you think this year is going to be appreciably different?

I think this year will be different because (a) our team is better; and (b) if we'd played Lehigh ten times in 2012 and/or if we'd played Mercer ten times in 2014, we probably would have won 8 or 9 of the ten in both cases. Possibly not in 2012 if Ryan Kelly was injured for all ten games, but we still would have won 6 or 7 and I'm hoping we don't get hit with a season-ending injury this season.

Let me ask you a question: We had 11 scholarship players available in 2014 and 10 scholarship players available in 2012; do you think we would have won against Lehigh and Mercer if we'd had more scholarship players available? If not, then why even bring it up?


And tell me how you honestly feel about our chances on the road against UNC in the rematch

Historically, home/road doesn't matter as much in Duke/UNC games as it does in most other contexts. My feelings about our chances to win in Chapel Hill are no different than they were before we played them at home. And I absolutely don't think our chances in the rematch would be any different if we had additional scholarship players available, unless those additional guys were better players than the ones we have now.


Jeter/Robinson 20 minutes at the 4*****

*****I don't know how mobile Jeter and Robinson are or whether they have a mid-range shot. I'm going to be conservative and assume they are more mobile than Obi/Plumlee but less so than Amile. I'm also going to assume that they are offensive challenged and the least ready to play of our bigs.

Jeter is a top 10 recruit. He's skinny, and may not be entirely prepared to bang with the big boys, but especially if we only have 7 players, I'd be surprised if he plays the least minutes on the team.

My understanding is Robinson is a wing (though if he continues to grow as has been reported, who knows where he'll end up). Also, I've read that he plans to redshirt next season, although if we only have 7 scholarship players, maybe that plan will change.


with regard to PGs and/or combo guards for the 2015/16 season, i think the staff would be well served by trying an all-of-the-above approach: go hard after the best remaining un-committed HS Sr. (BRHSS), try to land a well-regarded HS Sr. (WRHSS) who will stick around 4 years, and try to entice a 5th yr. grad student transfer.

Unfortunately, at this point in the recruiting season your "BRHSS" and your "WRHSS" are the same guys. And there aren't that many of them left and they're not that highly regarded. There are no potential one-and-done PGs available. There aren't even any make-the-rotation-for-four-years-starting-in-2015 PGs available. It's very unlikely a currently available 2015 high school PG would be good enough to successfully lead a good Duke team. Any high school PG we could currently recruit would likely be little more than a practice player who takes up a Duke scholarship for four years.

[cptnflash]

Keds crushing the copy/paste/disagree again. A 6-0 beatdown!

[Jeffrey]

.... (b) if we'd played Lehigh ten times in 2012 and/or if we'd played Mercer ten times in 2014, we probably would have won 8 or 9 of the ten in both cases. Possibly not in 2012 if Ryan Kelly was injured for all ten games, but we still would have won 6 or 7 and I'm hoping we don't get hit with a season-ending injury this season.

Hi,

Agreed. IMO, his most valid coaching concern was those performances.

[jimsumner]

People keep referencing the possibility of Duke having only seven scholarship players next season. Even if Winslow, T. Jones, Ingram and Swanigan all make decisions that take them out of the Duke equation, I think the chances of Duke having only seven recruited players is pretty close to zero. K brought in Andre Buckner late in the 1999 class, kicked the tires on a grad-student transfer two springs ago, signed Felix and shouldn't have much trouble bringing in somebody from column A and somebody from column B and maybe somebody from column C should the necessity arise, and I suspect it won't.

In an ideal world, Duke would always have a few guys in the Lee Melchionni-David McClure-Tyler Thornton mold, i.e. players good enough to be solid complementary players at the ACC level but not so good that they delusions of grandeur and can't stand the idea of sitting on a bench.

So, perhaps K and his staff made a mistake not having some guys like that. But it's a pretty thin line to negotiate and it's hard for me to find too much fault in that, especially for a team that just isn't going to give a lot of PT to the 11th guy in the rotation.

[Pghdukie]

Some guy that worked in the White House seemed to fill a void very well. 7 scholly doesn't seem that it will happen. Staff will solve that. We should all have faith and confidence !

[Newton_14]

Hmm, I'm not sure how wishing we had more bench depth justifies such a response. First of all, I never said I am not enjoying the season. From what did you glean that nugget of presumption? I enjoy watching every single Duke game, to varying degrees, of course. Beyond that, did you even watch the UNC game? Did you see how fortunate we were to have escaped with a victory at home by the thinnest of margins? By all rights we should have lost that game. UNC outscored us by almost 20 points from about the midpoint of the first half until 1:38 was left in regulation. And that was at home with our crowd in a frenzy (and I was there cheering for Duke as loudly as anyone in that stadium, I think). They pretty much manhandled, pushed around, and repeatedly dunked all over our significantly smaller, team for much of the game. And this was a UNC team that got absolutely demolished by mediocre Pittsburgh just a few days earlier. Did you see the Miami game at Cameron? Their guards completely DOMINATED and crushed us on our home court. Did you see a mediocre NC State complete control the second half against us?

Yes, we have had some significant and impressive victories this year, but couldn't you say the same thing about our regular seaons during two of the past three campaigns only to be followed by shocking and embarrassing (yes, embarrassing) losses in the first round of the NCAA tournament to very low seeds while we were a highly-seeded No. 2 and No. 3, respectively? What makes you think this year is going to be appreciably different? Because we have a thin bench? And tell me how you honestly feel about our chances on the road against UNC in the rematch. To be sure, I am going to be cheering for Duke loudly and enthusiastically during that game. But after seeing the way this game played out I can't say that my confidence is extremely high for a Duke victory. Perhaps we will get another amazing performance from our peerless PG, Tyus Jones, and he will again find a way to steal a win against a bigger, deeper, opponent. Here's hoping lightning strikes twice.

I honestly feel there is a large amount of entitlement going on here above all else, combined with a similarly large does of naivety, combined with a very large lack of understanding of college basketball. I apologize if this is harsh (it is), but you opened the door here pretty wide to walk in. I am going to address each "concern" you tossed out in your two posts.

1. Depth: We started the season with a very deep team. Deepest and most talented perimeter probably ever. Because of said depth, we lost Semi, who unfortunately was not good enough to play ahead of the guys in front of him, and also unwilling to wait until he was good enough to be a main rotation player on a Top 5 team. I want to begrudge him there, but I can't. He wanted to play as a Soph, not wait until he was a Jr, so he went to a great academic school where he could meet his PT goals. Good for him, bad for Duke. Then Rasheed gets himself kicked off the team. So the coaching staff fully expected to have 10 players all year, plus Obi who is a Red Shirt. That is plenty of depth. Too much as we saw with Semi. So to cry foul now, that we only have 8 players does not fly. It would only fly if we started the year with 8. Only then would your argument be valid.

2. We did not blowout UNC: Have you not been watching the rivalry all these years? What led you to believe we should have blown out UNC Wednesday night? If that was your expectation going in, then your expectations were far too high and out of whack. I could name 10 Duke/UNC games off the top of my head where the team favored at home squeaked out a win or lost. You use quite a bit of hyperbole and embellishment in describing the game. Okafor is bigger than any player UNC has. MP3 is too. Winslow is a man child in a teenagers body. Neither got pushed around or manhandled. Okafor got shot over a lot, especially after getting hurt. UNC has 3 inside guys who are very good at scoring inside. This is their strength. To expect Duke to shut them down was not understanding the two teams. Even Kentucky gave up multiple points in the paint to UNC. It's their strength. UNC also pounds the boards on everybody. Pitt shot out of their minds. They would have beaten the 80's Lakers. Every basketball expert on tv and radio has pointed that out. Making jumpshots can make the worst of teams look great in college ball.

3. Miami & State & Reg Season/Conf Play: Except for maybe Kentucky which is an outlier, Miami or NC State could beat any team in the country in any building. Did you not see the State win at Louisville? State has been in almost every game they have played, they have just struggled to finish. They led Notre Dame by 20. Speaking of which were you in the building when Duke beat Notre Dame by 30? Did Notre Dame "get exposed", "manhandled", "pushed around"?. State is very much not mediocre. Neither is Miami. On top of that, in conference play there are rarily any easy wins. The opponents and their staff's know you, they know your scheme's, your strength's, and your weaknesses. Every play you run they recognize and know how to defend it. That's why you see so many upsets in college hoops every single year. Judging any college team based on their play on any given, one night, is a big mistake (see Duke losing at home to Miami and beating Notre Dame by 30 in the same building). There was an article a couple years back by an expert in college hoops who had studied years of data on teams. He stated in any given season there will be 5 games where a college team is hitting on all cylinders and wins big, 5 games where they have off nights and play like total crap, either losing to a team they have no business losing too, barely beating said team, or getting blown out by an average or good team. The other 20 games is where you will see who they really are as a team.

4. Losing Early in NCAA: First off, Duke has not cornered the market in losing on Day 1 of the NCAA tournament despite the losses to Lehigh or Mercer (and I was in the building for both of those games). I want even bother breaking down either game other than pointing out how susceptible last year's team was to upsets due to a horrible defense. I tend to look at it as though K had a great season getting as many wins as he did out of that team, given their lack of ability on defense. ( I was also in the building for the Drury and Vermont games last season. Both games revealed how bad the defense was). High ranked teams as 1 or 2 seeds get upset in the tourney every single season. Kansas, Syracuse, Kentucky, Ohio St, Arizona, I could go on and on and on there. The tourney is a one game crapshoot. Have one of those 5 outlier bad games in March and your season ends. That's the reality.

This year's team has answered the call many times and have the most impressive resume in the country bar none. It's not even close. Yes they slipped at State, and at home to Miami (the only game I would call a "bad loss", only because it was at home and they quit), and they slipped at Top 10 Notre Dame, after holding a 10 point lead. However, they have won @#2 Wisconsin, @Louisville, @#2UVA, @Syracuse, @St Johns, against Mich St, Temple, Stanford, and UConn at neutral sites, while beating ranked UNC at home in the biggest rivalry game in sports.

Call me a polyanna if you wish, but I feel they have shown their metal and clearly established themselves as a Top 5 team, ACC Contender and Final Four Contender. I am sorry if you feel you are owed that, much less owed an undefeated regular season with no close games.

[sagegrouse]

I honestly feel there is a large amount of entitlement going on here above all else, combined with a similarly large does of naivety, combined with a very large lack of understanding of college basketball. I apologize if this is harsh (it is), but you opened the door here pretty wide to walk in. I am going to address each "concern" you tossed out in your two posts.

4. Losing Early in NCAA: First off, Duke has not cornered the market in losing on Day 1 of the NCAA tournament despite the losses to Lehigh or Mercer (and I was in the building for both of those games). .

Newty-baby -- Would you consider skipping the tournament this year? Just asking.

Kindly,
Sage

[Newton_14]

Newty-baby -- Would you consider skipping the tournament this year? Just asking.

Kindly,
Sage

Don't worry. DU82 has already banned me this season. I will be watching a TV from home. :)

(I was also at the UVA ACC Championship game last year so I imagine I am banned from that too. :) )

[CDu]

Don't worry. DU82 has already banned me this season. I will be watching a TV from home. :)

(I was also at the UVA ACC Championship game last year so I imagine I am banned from that too. :) )

You are only allowed to go to home games against top-10 teams, as that worked out well for us against Notre Dame. ;)

[gumbomoop]

Haha, ok, I'll give it a shot.

Jones 35 minutes*
Allen 35 minutes*
Kennard 35 minutes*
Jefferson 15 minutes at the 3, 15 minutes at the 4**
Obi 25 minutes at center***
Plumlee 15 minutes at center, 5 minutes at the 4****
Jeter/Robinson 20 minutes at the 4*****

I don't think there's any chance Duke will have only 7 + Robinson next season. Nevertheless, in view of the unexpected departures of Semi and Rasheed, I have had fun speculating on the Kennard and Jeter/Kennard threads, and here offer a couple of observations about your speculations. This is sort of a DBR bored [.....] game, beginning with this highly unlikely, pretend premise: the tag quote 8 players are it, period.

1. Robinson will not redshirt in 2015-16. He won't play much at all, just a little, mop-up and foul-problem situations. He might then redshirt in 2016-17.
2. Yes, the 3 obvious perimeter guys will play ~ 35 minutes each. Occasionally ~ 38 for a couple of these 3. As almost no one has argued on any thread that either Matt or Grayson has excellent handle and PG inclinations, whereas Luke does, Luke is de facto PG.
3. Sean, Amile, and Marshall are interior-only players. Give Sean and Marshall each ~ 20 at the 5. Give Amile ~ 30 at the 4.
4. Give Chase the other 10 at the 4.
5. But it's Chase, not Amile, who will spend some time, ~15, at wing/3. He's more fluid than Amile, and can shoot some from 15', whereas Amile won't do it. Amile's effective O is close in, baseline slinky; has been that way since HS, hasn't changed at all. Amile cannot play the 3; no good away from basket, no jump-stop-jump-shot, etc.
6. If Chase's 25 total mpg looks too much, ok, give Marshall or Sean a very few minutes at the 4, reducing Chase's total minutes closer to 20. By necessity, Chase plays more at the 3 than 4.
7. No matter how you slice it, young and little-experienced, if talented, players will have to play far too many minutes. Only way we could thoroughly delight in this 8-man squad is ......
8. If Duke has won NC in 2015 .......
9. ..... and by ACC games, Grayson and Chase soar, Luke dazzles, Matt locks down and 3-bombs, Marshall channels Zoubek, Amile turns into Battier's Daddy, Sean outplays Meeks every time, and Justin grows 3" taller, blocks a few, dribbles behind his back, and shoots 67% from 3-land on 2 out of 3 for the season.

[NSDukeFan]

...

PS: Try to find a Billy King type player for next season. A top notch defender that can guard multiple positions. You know the shut down guy that might can't shoot straight, but can cause the guy he's guarding to not shoot straight either. GoDuke!


I think that Matt Jones is that guy. Though hopefully he can shoot too.

I believe Amile is that guy, a longer armed Lance Thomas.

Woe is us in the very unlikely event that Duke enters the season with no more players than the 7 expected and we the fans have to endure a bottom of the top 25, 20-25 win season. That would be so unfair to us.

[Steven43]

Keds crushing the copy/paste/disagree again. A 6-0 beatdown!

I literally laughed out loud when I read your comment last night. Seriously, that was funny😄.

[jv001]

I don't think there's any chance Duke will have only 7 + Robinson next season. Nevertheless, in view of the unexpected departures of Semi and Rasheed, I have had fun speculating on the Kennard and Jeter/Kennard threads, and here offer a couple of observations about your speculations. This is sort of a DBR bored [.....] game, beginning with this highly unlikely, pretend premise: the tag quote 8 players are it, period.

1. Robinson will not redshirt in 2015-16. He won't play much at all, just a little, mop-up and foul-problem situations. He might then redshirt in 2016-17.
2. Yes, the 3 obvious perimeter guys will play ~ 35 minutes each. Occasionally ~ 38 for a couple of these 3. As almost no one has argued on any thread that either Matt or Grayson has excellent handle and PG inclinations, whereas Luke does, Luke is de facto PG.
3. Sean, Amile, and Marshall are interior-only players. Give Sean and Marshall each ~ 20 at the 5. Give Amile ~ 30 at the 4.
4. Give Chase the other 10 at the 4.
5. But it's Chase, not Amile, who will spend some time, ~15, at wing/3. He's more fluid than Amile, and can shoot some from 15', whereas Amile won't do it. Amile's effective O is close in, baseline slinky; has been that way since HS, hasn't changed at all. Amile cannot play the 3; no good away from basket, no jump-stop-jump-shot, etc.
6. If Chase's 25 total mpg looks too much, ok, give Marshall or Sean a very few minutes at the 4, reducing Chase's total minutes closer to 20. By necessity, Chase plays more at the 3 than 4.
7. No matter how you slice it, young and little-experienced, if talented, players will have to play far too many minutes. Only way we could thoroughly delight in this 8-man squad is ......
8. If Duke has won NC in 2015 .......
9. ..... and by ACC games, Grayson and Chase soar, Luke dazzles, Matt locks down and 3-bombs, Marshall channels Zoubek, Amile turns into Battier's Daddy, Sean outplays Meeks every time, and Justin grows 3" taller, blocks a few, dribbles behind his back, and shoots 67% from 3-land on 2 out of 3 for the season.

I know most of your post( I like it), is in jest. The Amile turns into Battier's Daddy is the funniest part of your post. Amile has talent to be a very good defender but he doesn't come close to Shane on offense. Shane could shoot from anywhere on the court, but Amile has to stay in the lane. As you said in the earlier part of the post. I like the idea of Amile being a Lance Thomas type defender. He's not slow footed as some have said, he moves his feet well on defense. So, it's possible he could be my "Billy King" type defender next season. GoDuke!

[Steven43]

I believe Amile is that guy, a longer armed Lance Thomas.

Woe is us in the very unlikely event that Duke enters the season with no more players than the 7 expected and we the fans have to endure a bottom of the top 25, 20-25 win season. That would be so unfair to us.

I really don't understand the attitude of many Duke fans who seem perfectly happy with just being good. Forgive me if I am misreading your 'have to endure a bottom of the top 25' comment, but it sounds to me as if you are perfectly fine with that type of season. Personally, I am not. And I don't think the university I have given a lot of time and money to over the years--through tuition, donations, etc.--pays our coach nearly $10,000,000 per year (which is nearly TWICE the amount of the second-highest paid coach in all of college basketball, Rick Pitino) to be in the bottom of the top 25.

When Coach agreed to that level of compensation he also implicitly agreed to a similar level of scrutiny. Well pardon me for my sense of 'entitlement' as young Mr. Newton suggested, but this is not kindergarten. Whether you like it or not, Duke Basketball now operates like a business, with Coach as its CEO. And like any other CEO who is compensated at the absolute highest level of his/her field, there is a commensurate expectation of results.

I didn't create this game. On the contrary, if it were up to me I would dictate Duke not offer athletic scholarships, similar to the Ivy League schools, and have us focus 100% on academic excellence. Athletics at Duke would revert to the true student-athlete model of 100 years ago, and Coach could take the Kentucky job. However, since that is not the way the game is currently played I have adjusted my expectations accordingly.

[NashvilleDevil]

I really don't understand the attitude of many Duke fans who seem perfectly happy with just being good. Forgive me if I am misreading your 'have to endure a bottom of the top 25' comment, but it sounds to me as if you are perfectly fine with that type of season. Personally, I am not. And I don't think the university I have given a lot of time and money to over the years--through tuition, donations, etc.--pays our coach nearly $10,000,000 per year (which is nearly TWICE the amount of the second-highest paid coach in all of college basketball, Rick Pitino) to be in the bottom of the top 25.

When Coach agreed to that level of compensation he also implicitly agreed to a similar level of scrutiny. Well pardon me for my sense of 'entitlement' as young Mr. Newton suggested, but this is not kindergarten. Whether you like it or not, Duke Basketball now operates like a business, with Coach as its CEO. And like any other CEO who is compensated at the absolute highest level of his/her field, there is a commensurate expectation of results.

I didn't create this game. On the contrary, if it were up to me I would dictate Duke not offer athletic scholarships, similar to the Ivy League schools, and have us focus 100% on academic excellence. Athletics at Duke would revert to the true student-athlete model of 100 years ago, and Coach could take the Kentucky job. However, since that is not the way the game is currently played I have adjusted my expectations accordingly.

This post just screams of entitlement. Duke has been a top 5/10 team for close to 30 years and you are whining about the possibility that next year, not this year, but next year they may have a down year and be ranked from 15-20. Heaven forbid that happens.

[jv001]

I really don't understand the attitude of many Duke fans who seem perfectly happy with just being good. Forgive me if I am misreading your 'have to endure a bottom of the top 25' comment, but it sounds to me as if you are perfectly fine with that type of season. Personally, I am not. And I don't think the university I have given a lot of time and money to over the years--through tuition, donations, etc.--pays our coach nearly $10,000,000 per year (which is nearly TWICE the amount of the second-highest paid coach in all of college basketball, Rick Pitino) to be in the bottom of the top 25.

When Coach agreed to that level of compensation he also implicitly agreed to a similar level of scrutiny. Well pardon me for my sense of 'entitlement' as young Mr. Newton suggested, but this is not kindergarten. Whether you like it or not, Duke Basketball now operates like a business, with Coach as its CEO. And like any other CEO who is compensated at the absolute highest level of his/her field, there is a commensurate expectation of results.

I didn't create this game. On the contrary, if it were up to me I would dictate Duke not offer athletic scholarships, similar to the Ivy League schools, and have us focus 100% on academic excellence. Athletics at Duke would revert to the true student-athlete model of 100 years ago, and Coach could take the Kentucky job. However, since that is not the way the game is currently played I have adjusted my expectations accordingly.

I don't know of anyone on this board that can remember Duke athletics back in 1915. I think Coach K has adapted pretty well in this OAD age. If Duke is going to compete, we have to have those type players. Maybe not 4 in an 8 man rotation, but we will need these players. Back in the day, we didn't have as many NBA teams, therefore there wasn't a need for so many great players coming out of college. That has changed dramatically over the years. So, the landscape for the NBA and college game has changed. I love Duke basketball and don't keep up with the NBA except to keep up with our Duke guys. I trust Coach K and his staff to recruit the best players each and every year. It just so happened that we've had transfers and the Rasheed dismissal. No one can predict when that is going to happen, not even our HOF Coach. The only way to keep all the good players happy, is to play the line change lineups. As Kedsy has pointed out many times, Coach K is not going to do that. His belief is to have the best 5, 6 or 7 players playing most of the minutes. That's just who he is and I surely can't complain because he and the staff know more about Duke University Basketball and the recruiting landscape than anyone on DBR.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I really don't understand the attitude of many Duke fans who seem perfectly happy with just being good. Forgive me if I am misreading your 'have to endure a bottom of the top 25' comment, but it sounds to me as if you are perfectly fine with that type of season. Personally, I am not. And I don't think the university I have given a lot of time and money to over the years--through tuition, donations, etc.--pays our coach nearly $10,000,000 per year (which is nearly TWICE the amount of the second-highest paid coach in all of college basketball, Rick Pitino) to be in the bottom of the top 25.

When Coach agreed to that level of compensation he also implicitly agreed to a similar level of scrutiny. Well pardon me for my sense of 'entitlement' as young Mr. Newton suggested, but this is not kindergarten. Whether you like it or not, Duke Basketball now operates like a business, with Coach as its CEO. And like any other CEO who is compensated at the absolute highest level of his/her field, there is a commensurate expectation of results.

I didn't create this game. On the contrary, if it were up to me I would dictate Duke not offer athletic scholarships, similar to the Ivy League schools, and have us focus 100% on academic excellence. Athletics at Duke would revert to the true student-athlete model of 100 years ago, and Coach could take the Kentucky job. However, since that is not the way the game is currently played I have adjusted my expectations accordingly.

I'd posit that instead of sensing your entitlement because of complaining about having to endure this ignominious hypothetical low 20s ranking, I would find it rather obnoxious that you are complaining about the possibility of a "crappy year" while in the middle of enduring a season where we are ranked in the top five all season and have a LOT left to play for.

Qualifying your comments by pining away for the wistful days before athletic scholarships (which none of us recall at Duke) doesn't change the level of entitlement/arrogance that people smell when they paint "Duke fans" with that wide brush. In other words "you're not helping." And please, don't you dare send our coach to Kentucky.

Let's see how disappointing this season plays out before we start leaping ahead to the entitlement and subsequent disappointment of 2015-2016.

*disclaimer: This post is full of snark, please feel free to ignore

[AIRFORCEDUKIE]

I really don't understand the attitude of many Duke fans who seem perfectly happy with just being good. Forgive me if I am misreading your 'have to endure a bottom of the top 25' comment, but it sounds to me as if you are perfectly fine with that type of season. Personally, I am not. And I don't think the university I have given a lot of time and money to over the years--through tuition, donations, etc.--pays our coach nearly $10,000,000 per year (which is nearly TWICE the amount of the second-highest paid coach in all of college basketball, Rick Pitino) to be in the bottom of the top 25.

When Coach agreed to that level of compensation he also implicitly agreed to a similar level of scrutiny. Well pardon me for my sense of 'entitlement' as young Mr. Newton suggested, but this is not kindergarten. Whether you like it or not, Duke Basketball now operates like a business, with Coach as its CEO. And like any other CEO who is compensated at the absolute highest level of his/her field, there is a commensurate expectation of results.

I didn't create this game. On the contrary, if it were up to me I would dictate Duke not offer athletic scholarships, similar to the Ivy League schools, and have us focus 100% on academic excellence. Athletics at Duke would revert to the true student-athlete model of 100 years ago, and Coach could take the Kentucky job. However, since that is not the way the game is currently played I have adjusted my expectations accordingly.

I vote for a ban for the comment in bold!! How dare you blaspheme in such ways, I am officially offended. There are children who read this forum sir, and you have tarnished their childhood by making such statements. May God have mercy on your soul. :cool:

[Chillduck]

Oh where is your faith in Coach K? I don't see us having 7 scholarship players next year. This is the perfect scenario for Ingram or Swanigan to come in and star. I also saw where Duke asked Thornton about possibly reclassifying to 2015. If that doesn't happen, what grad-transfer wouldn't want to come to Duke where playing time is attainable. In any scenario, I don't see us with 7 scholarship players.

[oldnavy]

PLEASE NEVER TAKE IT FOR GRANTED WHAT WE HAVE HAD AT DUKE OVER THE PAST 34-35 YEARS, PLEASE!!

As a child of the 70's, I can tell you what it feels like to be the 3rd best team in the triangle, year after year.... it sucked.

So enjoy the ride, and don't waste time worrying about what might be.... if it happens you will have plenty of time to be upset, trust me!

[jimsumner]

I know most of your post( I like it), is in jest. The Amile turns into Battier's Daddy is the funniest part of your post. Amile has talent to be a very good defender but he doesn't come close to Shane on offense. Shane could shoot from anywhere on the court, but Amile has to stay in the lane. As you said in the earlier part of the post. I like the idea of Amile being a Lance Thomas type defender. He's not slow footed as some have said, he moves his feet well on defense. So, it's possible he could be my "Billy King" type defender next season. GoDuke!

Eventually Shane could score from anywhere on the court. Anyone want to take a guess at his freshman 3-pt percentage? Try 16.7, as in 4-24. By the time he was a senior, he was 124-296 (41.9%). John Smith had one career 3-pointer going into his senior season and made 25 as a senior. Grant Hill made one 3-pointer as a freshman, 39 as a senior.

I'm not expecting Jefferson to become Battier or Hill. But he darn well should to be able to figure out a way to knock down open 15-footers with some regularity. He did miss last summer with a hip problem. But the gym will be open all summer.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Eventually Shane could score from anywhere on the court. Anyone want to take a guess at his freshman 3-pt percentage? Try 16.7, as in 4-24. By the time he was a senior, he was 124-296 (41.9%). John Smith had one career 3-pointer going into his senior season and made 25 as a senior. Grant Hill made one 3-pointer as a freshman, 39 as a senior.

I'm not expecting Jefferson to become Battier or Hill. But he darn well should to be able to figure out a way to knock down open 15-footers with some regularity. He did miss last summer with a hip problem. But the gym will be open all summer.

Amile with a reliable 12-15 foot jumper would be a game-changer on offense. Combine that with some steady long-range shooters, and I seriously doubt any zone defenses will be a problem.

[CDu]

Eventually Shane could score from anywhere on the court. Anyone want to take a guess at his freshman 3-pt percentage? Try 16.7, as in 4-24. By the time he was a senior, he was 124-296 (41.9%). John Smith had one career 3-pointer going into his senior season and made 25 as a senior. Grant Hill made one 3-pointer as a freshman, 39 as a senior.

I'm not expecting Jefferson to become Battier or Hill. But he darn well should to be able to figure out a way to knock down open 15-footers with some regularity. He did miss last summer with a hip problem. But the gym will be open all summer.

Battier was a quite capable 3pt shooter out of high school, though. He did win the McD's 3pt contest. He just didn't shoot much from 3 as a freshman. He did get better, but he wasn't incapable as a frosh.

And while Hill did get better, note that he was a far better shooter much sooner than Jefferson, who has shown no real progress in his shooting touch through 3 years at Duke.

Also, you've just identified two of the very best players to ever wear a Duke uniform as points of reference. I'm not sure that's entirely fair for Jefferson. And even those guys showed WAY more progress in their shooting ability by this point in their careers than Jefferson has.

I think it is unlikely that Jefferson will become a good mid-range shooter next year. Possible, but unlikely. It is pretty rare for a guy to go from where Jefferson is as a junior to being a good shooter as a senior.

[Duke3517]

Depth is not Duke's problem. Duke's biggest problem is when T Jones and Cook are both playing at the same time. Great offensively but need a lot of work on the defensive end. Too many times this year I have seen guards penetrate right by the both of them. Plus they don't come off of ball screens very well. I cringe every time I see those two together on the floor. You know Duke will give up close to 70-80 points. Last game though in overtime was 90.

[NashvilleDevil]

Depth is not Duke's problem. Duke's biggest problem is when T Jones and Cook are both playing at the same time. Great offensively but need a lot of work on the defensive end. Too many times this year I have seen guards penetrate right by the both of them. Plus they don't come off of ball screens very well. I cringe every time I see those two together on the floor. You know Duke will give up close to 70-80 points. Last game though in overtime was 90.

[begin sarcasm]I know. Imagine what Duke's record would be if K limited the time Cook and Jones spent on the floor together. It would certainly be better than 23-3.[end sarcasm]

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

[begin sarcasm]I know. Imagine what Duke's record would be if K limited the time Cook and Jones spent on the floor together. It would certainly be better than 23-3.[end sarcasm]

Agreed. I can't even remember how many points Paige torched Cook for.

[Kedsy]

Depth is not Duke's problem. Duke's biggest problem is when T Jones and Cook are both playing at the same time. Great offensively but need a lot of work on the defensive end. Too many times this year I have seen guards penetrate right by the both of them. Plus they don't come off of ball screens very well. I cringe every time I see those two together on the floor. You know Duke will give up close to 70-80 points. Last game though in overtime was 90.

You must do a LOT of cringing. In non-blowouts Quinn and Tyus play together at least 35 minutes a game. In our last three games, they played 43, 35, and 39 minutes together (all wins, by the way). Not only that, but Quinn was the defensive hero against Carolina, pretty much single-handedly holding UNC's best scorer to 5 points.

[sagegrouse]

I really don't understand the attitude of many Duke fans who seem perfectly happy with just being good.

This is a "straw man" beyond all comprehension, if you are referring to frequent posters on DBR and similar Duke sites.


Forgive me if I am misreading your 'have to endure a bottom of the top 25' comment, but it sounds to me as if you are perfectly fine with that type of season. Personally, I am not.

You may have fallen victim to NSDukeFan's extremely wry sense of humor.


When Coach agreed to that level of compensation he also implicitly agreed to a similar level of scrutiny. Well pardon me for my sense of 'entitlement' as young Mr. Newton suggested, but this is not kindergarten. Whether you like it or not, Duke Basketball now operates like a business, with Coach as its CEO. And like any other CEO who is compensated at the absolute highest level of his/her field, there is a commensurate expectation of results.

So, we have a top 25 team that doesn't make much of a splash in postseason? Mebbe a little better than the 2007 team, which finished unranked after losing the last four games? So, that's unsatisfactory, in your view. Well, what would you do? Fire the best coach in CBB history? Or, suck it up and look for improvement in the 2017 season? Or, throw a tantrum -- some will, not necessarily you -- but recognize that K will stay at Duke as long as he wants?


I didn't create this game. On the contrary, if it were up to me I would dictate Duke not offer athletic scholarships, similar to the Ivy League schools, and have us focus 100% on academic excellence. Athletics at Duke would revert to the true student-athlete model of 100 years ago, and Coach could take the Kentucky job. However, since that is not the way the game is currently played I have adjusted my expectations accordingly.

Oh, my! Quite a disclaimer here. Duke, as a whole, prospers because of the athletic program. In an alternate universe, there could be sports clubs in every city that serve the same function. See: Europe. But we have sports for the under 22 set played at universities in the USA. Some schools have chosen to play Division III (Emory, Wash U., U of Chicago); Duke (and Stanford) seem to have more "curb presence" than these. The Ivies are Div I except in football but have a roundabout way of providing grants to athletes. Other than HYP, they tend to be less well-known than Duke and Stanford (and Northwestern) around the country. But heck, ridiculing the academic compromises that must be made to have a gangbusters athletic program is like shooting fish in a barrel.....

Kindly,
Sage

[jimsumner]

Battier was a quite capable 3pt shooter out of high school, though. He did win the McD's 3pt contest. He just didn't shoot much from 3 as a freshman. He did get better, but he wasn't incapable as a frosh.

And while Hill did get better, note that he was a far better shooter much sooner than Jefferson, who has shown no real progress in his shooting touch through 3 years at Duke.

Also, you've just identified two of the very best players to ever wear a Duke uniform as points of reference. I'm not sure that's entirely fair for Jefferson. And even those guys showed WAY more progress in their shooting ability by this point in their careers than Jefferson has.

I think it is unlikely that Jefferson will become a good mid-range shooter next year. Possible, but unlikely. It is pretty rare for a guy to go from where Jefferson is as a junior to being a good shooter as a senior.

I would define 4 for 24 as pretty close to incapable. And Grant Hill made five 3-pointers in his first three seasons at Duke, 39 as a senior. Seems like some late-career improvement to me.

I also identified John Smith and explicitly stated that I didn't expect a Battier or Hill-like transformation. I'm not sure how you interpreted "I'm not expecting Jefferson to become Battier or Hill" as unfairly comparing Jefferson to Battier or Hill.

Want some less exalted comparisons? Tony Lang shot 52.6 from the line as a freshman, 65.5 and 65.7, then 72.4 as a senior. Anybody else tale 72.4% from Jefferson next season?

Dahntay Jones was 12-52 (23.1%) on 3s as a junior, 47-118 (39.8%) as a senior. Chris Carrawell was 0-2 on 3-pointers as a freshman, 29-77 as a senior. William Avery made 32-108 (29.6) on 3s as a freshman, 76-185 (41.1) as a sophomore.

Mason Plumlee shot 52.8 from the line as a junior, 68.1 as a senior. Lance Thomas shot 55.3 from the line as a junior, 74.3 as a senior. Exactly the kind of maybe not so rare junior-to-senior improvement I hope Jefferson can reach, with a healthy off-season.

I could go on. That's just a Duke sample. But I think there is enough evidence to suggest that players can, have and will improve their perimeter shooting, even as late as their senior seasons.

[gumbomoop]

Just to clarify, this contrast in several posts above between Shane's and Amile's O grew out of some phantasmagorical looniness -- mine -- buried at the bottom of an explicitly stated "bored game" built on a "highly unlikely, pretend premise."

My ref to Amile becoming Battier's Daddy had nothing to do with O, nor with reality. It was but one of a series of things that would have to "happen" if we were to be able to enjoy next season if we have only 7-8 guys.

I intended a highly unlikely, joking, silly, hyperbolic "prediction" about Amile's D next season.

[Duke3517]

You must do a LOT of cringing. In non-blowouts Quinn and Tyus play together at least 35 minutes a game. In our last three games, they played 43, 35, and 39 minutes together (all wins, by the way). Not only that, but Quinn was the defensive hero against Carolina, pretty much single-handedly holding UNC's best scorer to 5 points.

How many points have they given up?

[DukieInBrasil]

How many points have they given up?

Uh, Cook gave up 5 to Paige. Sooooooooo, there's that.

[Duke3517]

Uh, Cook gave up 5 to Paige. Sooooooooo, there's that.

While he is battling plantar fascitis.

[Steven43]

I vote for a ban for the comment in bold!! How dare you blaspheme in such ways, I am officially offended. There are children who read this forum sir, and you have tarnished their childhood by making such statements. May God have mercy on your soul. :cool:

Touché'! Excellent comment. I agree with everything you wrote with the possible exception of the ban. However, if Duke University does decide to do away with athletic scholarships and at that point I suggest Coach take the Kentucky job, then I would wholeheartedly agree with your ban idea.

[FerryFor50]

While he is battling plantar fascitis.

He's been battling it all year. Here are his point totals the last 10 games before Duke:

Pitt - 8 points, 3-11 shooting
BC - 13 points, 5-9 shooting
UVA - 15 points, 5-10 shooting
L'ville - 15 points, 5-12 shooting
Syracuse - 22 points, 6-10 shooting
FSU - 19 points 6-13 shooting
Wake - 12 points, 4-8 shooting
VT - 8 points, 3-10 shooting
NCSU - 23 points, 6-9 shooting
L'ville - 10 points, 4-12 shooting

That's 14.5 ppg over the last 10 games prior to Duke with some really good defenses sprinkled in there. Think Cook didn't have a lot to do with holding Paige to his lowest point total of the season? (tied for 5 against UNCG)

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

How many points have they given up?

According to the sticky at the top of the board, Cook and T. Jones have the highest plus/minus of the team over the course of the season.

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

I cannot believe this thread has reached 5 pages. Methinks two posters have a bet going to see how many pages they can push this thread to. I will give them this... liberal use of strawman arguments is a helluva a good tactic to keep a DBR thread running at full steam.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

How many points have they given up?

Though, to be fair, they have given up hundreds of points.

:rolleyes:

[DukieInBrasil]

While he is battling plantar fascitis.

while he has also been UNC's leading scorer.

[NSDukeFan]

You must do a LOT of cringing. In non-blowouts Quinn and Tyus play together at least 35 minutes a game. In our last three games, they played 43, 35, and 39 minutes together (all wins, by the way). Not only that, but Quinn was the defensive hero against Carolina, pretty much single-handedly holding UNC's best scorer to 5 points.


How many points have they given up?


Though, to be fair, they have given up hundreds of points.

:rolleyes:

Duke3517 and Mountain_Devil are right. Since Tyus and Quinn have been on so much so far this season, they have given up almost all of Duke's points so far this year. Sean Kelly and Nick Pagliuca have made far fewer mistakes and given up a lot less points. Fewer points? Grammar police, help please.

[gumbomoop]

Duke3517 and Mountain_Devil are right. Since Tyus and Quinn have been on so much so far this season, they have given up almost all of Duke's points so far this year. Sean Kelly and Nick Pagliuca have made far fewer mistakes and given up a lot less points. Fewer points? Grammar police, help please.

I think it's "less" for amount, "fewer" for numbers.

I have less time on this earth, fewer minutes, than I did when I started this reply. Depressing. For me, but possibly not for everyone. Probably needs a secret ballot.

[NSDukeFan]

I really don't understand the attitude of many Duke fans who seem perfectly happy with just being good. Forgive me if I am misreading your 'have to endure a bottom of the top 25' comment, but it sounds to me as if you are perfectly fine with that type of season. Personally, I am not. And I don't think the university I have given a lot of time and money to over the years--through tuition, donations, etc.--pays our coach nearly $10,000,000 per year (which is nearly TWICE the amount of the second-highest paid coach in all of college basketball, Rick Pitino) to be in the bottom of the top 25.

When Coach agreed to that level of compensation he also implicitly agreed to a similar level of scrutiny. Well pardon me for my sense of 'entitlement' as young Mr. Newton suggested, but this is not kindergarten. Whether you like it or not, Duke Basketball now operates like a business, with Coach as its CEO. And like any other CEO who is compensated at the absolute highest level of his/her field, there is a commensurate expectation of results.

...

The good news is that you didn't misread my post, or intent, as is easy to do on internet boards. I'll try to explain my attitude.

I haven't given 10's of thousands of dollars to Duke and Duke athletics. I just spend hours watching, thinking about and discussing the team. There are over 300 division 1 teams and every year Duke is in the top 25 and almost always in the top 10 with a reasonable chance to make it to the Final Four, all the while having what seem to be outstanding young student athletes who attend real classes at one of the better universities in the United States. Right now, the team has had one of the best seasons, with one of the most impressive sets of victories of any of Hall of Fame coach K's 40ish years at Duke. The team has as good a chance as any (besides maybe UK) to make a deep tournament run. This is really enjoyable to me.

There are 8 months before next season starts. In that time, we will find out which freshmen will leave early, which recruits,if any, beyond the two McDonald's All-Americans already committed, will choose to attend Duke next year. We will also see if the staff looks at the increasingly important number of transfers and/or junior college transfers that may be available for next year. In the unlikely event, that after the staff has explored all these options, they do not find any additional suitable student athletes to join next year's team, I will resign myself to watching the first Duke team that is not in the top 10, but will likely be in the top 25, in a bunch of years, something no other team, except maybe UK (which missed the NCAA tournament within the last 5 years) and KU can say. I would be very excited and happy to cheer on this hypothetical top 25 team all year, as would the fan bases of just about every team. This once in 10 years Duke team would still likely make the NCAA tournament and have a chance to make it out of the first weekend. I would expect Duke would field a much stronger team the following year, as they have for most of the last 40.

I realize that might not meet your expectations ,but you may want to give coach K a bit of slack, since a)we don't know that he won't improve the team before next year, which I expect he will and b) he has coached this program to be the most consistent winner in the NCAAs, all the while appearing to do most everything the right, not Carolina, way, and c) the current team is fantastic and having an epic year, no matter what happens the rest of the way. I can't get over the number of huge wins this team has this year. Enjoy.

[brevity]

I think it's "less" for amount, "fewer" for numbers.

Example: I have less patience for this thread, and fewer brain cells for having read it.

[Wander]

We started the season with a very deep team.

I think this is the key point. With a few rare exceptions for teams like VMI that do have systems that tire their players out, the point of having depth isn't to play 10 guys a game, it's to cope easier with injuries, foul trouble, transfers, suspensions, etc, like Ohio State football this year. The fact that we're still a top team after losing two players for the season is a testament to our depth (at the start of the season, of course).

[CDu]

As if we need another bit of proof that Coach K knows what he is doing...the issue with a thin roster is that there are players that come to Duke and then their games become incredibly better than expected and they leave early then we as fans expect. This is a testament to Coach K and his ability to recognize talent and nurture it.

We need to enjoy today. If Tyus was not as good as he has become (and for that matter Justise) we would be looking at 6-7 additional losses this year. Duke might also be considered a bubble team and instead of talking about a run to a Final Four we would be wondering if Duke even makes the tournament.

You can do the math if you want to but here is what I recall off the top of my head. Duke is 10-3 and 23-3. We could have loses to UNC, Wisc., St. Johns, UVA, GT, Wake, FSU, but do not because of the play of Tyus and Justise (among others). That would put Duke at 5-8 and 16-10. So would we prefer that Coach K not have an eye for talent and be able to coach them up. Enjoy today or we could be talking about being on the NCAA bubble.

I think it says more about Coach K's recruiting/talent identification prowess than his ability to "coach them up." Tyus Jones (like Okafor and Winslow) walked onto campus with this brilliant game. That is not to say that Coach K isn't a terrific developer of talent; just that I don't think he is the one responsible for bringing out the brilliance of these guys. They were brilliant from day one; the the impressive thing was getting them here.

[CDu]

I would define 4 for 24 as pretty close to incapable. And Grant Hill made five 3-pointers in his first three seasons at Duke, 39 as a senior. Seems like some late-career improvement to me.

I also identified John Smith and explicitly stated that I didn't expect a Battier or Hill-like transformation. I'm not sure how you interpreted "I'm not expecting Jefferson to become Battier or Hill" as unfairly comparing Jefferson to Battier or Hill.

Want some less exalted comparisons? Tony Lang shot 52.6 from the line as a freshman, 65.5 and 65.7, then 72.4 as a senior. Anybody else tale 72.4% from Jefferson next season?

Dahntay Jones was 12-52 (23.1%) on 3s as a junior, 47-118 (39.8%) as a senior. Chris Carrawell was 0-2 on 3-pointers as a freshman, 29-77 as a senior. William Avery made 32-108 (29.6) on 3s as a freshman, 76-185 (41.1) as a sophomore.

Mason Plumlee shot 52.8 from the line as a junior, 68.1 as a senior. Lance Thomas shot 55.3 from the line as a junior, 74.3 as a senior. Exactly the kind of maybe not so rare junior-to-senior improvement I hope Jefferson can reach, with a healthy off-season.

I could go on. That's just a Duke sample. But I think there is enough evidence to suggest that players can, have and will improve their perimeter shooting, even as late as their senior seasons.

Yeah, I'm going to have to respectfully disagree that any of those comparisons suggest Jefferson can become a good mid-range (or beyond) shooter next year.

Battier was far from incapable as a freshman. You don't win the national 3pt shooting contest in high school by being incapable. The 4-24 was purely a function of small sample size. Battier was always a good shooter. As he showed the next 3 years with more opportunity. Just a terrible comparison.

Same story (though not as good) with Carrawell. Carrawell was a capable shooter from 3 even as a freshman. He just didn't take them, in part because he was a role player on that team (and shooting wasn't his role). He shot 14-38 as a soph, 19-55 as a junior, and 29-77 as a senior. This wasn't the case of a player who couldn't shoot gradually learning how to shoot. He had it from the get-go, and it didn't take him too long to show it.

And while Grant Hill certainly took a ton more 3s as a senior, he had a really good mid-range game by at latest his sophomore year. He just happened to play on teams that didn't need him to shoot in his first three years. So I think it was more of playing a role on the team. And again, even though he wasn't shooting 3s, he was a very capable shooter by at least his sophomore year. Again, not a good comparison.

Dahntay Jones shot 39-113 from 3 as a sophomore and 47-119 as a senior (literally a difference of about 4 made shots over the course of the season). He was basically the same shooter as a sophomore as he was as a senior. He didn't suddenly get good from 3pt range from junior to senior year. He just had a very down year as a junior (by far the worst percentage of his career that year, probably in part due to a low number of attempts). Again, not at all a good comparison.

Avery was a very capable shooter as a freshman. His percentage got better as a sophomore, likely a result of becoming a full-time starter, getting more attempts, and gaining more confidence. He wasn't starting from scratch like Jefferson. Not a good comparison.

Smith only attempted one 3pt shot in his first 3 years (and he made it), but he shot over 70% from the line all 3 years (nearly 80% as a soph). So again, this wasn't like a guy who couldn't shoot suddenly learning to shoot. He was a decent shooter, he just didn't take 3s earlier in his career.

Antonio Lang shot almost 66% as a soph and junior from the line. That was all of 6 or 7 made FT for the season different from the 72.4% he shot as a senior. I could certainly see Jefferson shooting 6-7 more FT makes next year, which would get him to the 63-65% range. But that doesn't mean he'll have a good mid-range game (see below).

Lance Thomas was a player known from his high school days as a good mid-range shooter. He didn't really show that at Duke, though, even through his senior year. But again, the difference between Thomas' freshman year FT% and his senior year FT%? 7 makes for the whole season.

Plumlee is probably the best example you've given, but I'd argue that it actually solidifies my argument rather than refutes it. Plumlee, like Jefferson, was an atrocious shooter from the field for his first three years. And he was, like Jefferson, a bad free throw shooter. As a senior, he became a much better free throw shooter. But he was STILL an atrocious shooter from the field. If it wasn't a hook shot in the lane, a layup, or a dunk, it wasn't going in. This, I think, is a great comparison for Jefferson.

None of the examples you've given here provide me any confidence that Jefferson is suddenly going to flash a solid mid-range game next year. I do think he could get better at the line, maybe even solid at the line. But all of the examples above of guys who supposedly developed a good shooting game over their careers were either guys who were good shooters to begin with but had limited opportunity, or guys who really didn't improve all that dramatically. The one guy whose shooting touch as frosh-through-junior was most similar to Jefferson's was Plumlee, and Plumlee most certainly didn't have a mid-range game as a senior.

I certainly HOPE Jefferson will develop that skill set next year, but I'd be REALLY surprised. Guys rarely go from atrocious as a shooter for 3 years to being capable as a senior.

[jimsumner]

IMO lots of Duke basketball players have improved their shooting abilities over the course of a season or more and I believe I have provided examples to support that belief.

So, I'm a bit befuddled by the implication that bad shooting stats don't actually reflect bad shooting. The guy who shoots 4-24 didn't shoot enough for us to conclude that 17 percent isn't very good shooting. The guy that shot 32-108 just lacked confidence. A player who made exactly zero 3-pointers in 1997 was in fact a "capable" 3-point shooter that season. Not sure how we draw that conclusion. Grant Hill could have been a great 3-point shooter for 3 seasons but Duke didn't need him to. Mason Plumlee improved his foul shooting more than 15 percentage points between his junior and senior seasons and that proves your contention that Amile Jefferson cannot or will not improve his shooting between his junior and senior season?

I remember a conversation I had with John Smith. He spent his first three years at Duke playing inside. Duke was bringing in Christian Laettner and Crawford Palmer the next season and Alaa Abdelnaby was starting to figure it out. So, Mike Krzyzewski told Smith Duke would need him to play on the wing as a senior. So, Smith woodshedded all summer, shooting jumper after jumper after jumper.

John Smith seemed to think he improved his shooting that summer? Was he wrong? Is shooting a genetic gift not amenable to improvement? Can no one better this aspect of one's game with smart coaching and hard work?

This is a serious question. In your opinion, is it possible for a 21-year-old basketball player to improve his/her shooting over the course of a summer?

I say yes. Not easy or even likely or everyone would do it. But possible? Definitely.

[Edouble]

1. Depth: We started the season with a very deep team. Deepest and most talented perimeter probably ever. Because of said depth, we lost Semi, who unfortunately was not good enough to play ahead of the guys in front of him, and also unwilling to wait until he was good enough to be a main rotation player on a Top 5 team. I want to begrudge him there, but I can't. He wanted to play as a Soph, not wait until he was a Jr, so he went to a great academic school where he could meet his PT goals. Good for him, bad for Duke. Then Rasheed gets himself kicked off the team. So the coaching staff fully expected to have 10 players all year, plus Obi who is a Red Shirt. That is plenty of depth. Too much as we saw with Semi. So to cry foul now, that we only have 8 players does not fly. It would only fly if we started the year with 8. Only then would your argument be valid.


I know this is old, please forgive, I've had a long week and I am just catching up on this thread.

But SMU is a great academic school? Are you confusing the fact that Obi came from Rice and Semi transferred to SMU (both in Texas), or do you truly believe that SMU is a great academic school? I'm genuinely curious.

[CDu]

IMO lots of Duke basketball players have improved their shooting abilities over the course of a season or more and I believe I have provided examples to support that belief.

So, I'm a bit befuddled by the implication that bad shooting stats don't actually reflect bad shooting. The guy who shoots 4-24 didn't shoot enough for us to conclude that 17 percent isn't very good shooting. The guy that shot 32-108 just lacked confidence. A player who made exactly zero 3-pointers in 1997 was in fact a "capable" 3-point shooter that season. Not sure how we draw that conclusion. Grant Hill could have been a great 3-point shooter for 3 seasons but Duke didn't need him to. Mason Plumlee improved his foul shooting more than 15 percentage points between his junior and senior seasons and that proves your contention that Amile Jefferson cannot or will not improve his shooting between his junior and senior season?

I remember a conversation I had with John Smith. He spent his first three years at Duke playing inside. Duke was bringing in Christian Laettner and Crawford Palmer the next season and Alaa Abdelnaby was starting to figure it out. So, Mike Krzyzewski told Smith Duke would need him to play on the wing as a senior. So, Smith woodshedded all summer, shooting jumper after jumper after jumper.

John Smith seemed to think he improved his shooting that summer? Was he wrong? Is shooting a genetic gift not amenable to improvement? Can no one better this aspect of one's game with smart coaching and hard work?

This is a serious question. In your opinion, is it possible for a 21-year-old basketball player to improve his/her shooting over the course of a summer?

I say yes. Not easy or even likely or everyone would do it. But possible? Definitely.

I never said impossible. I said very unlikely. And I stand by everything I said in my previous post.

[Kedsy]

Is shooting a genetic gift not amenable to improvement? Can no one better this aspect of one's game with smart coaching and hard work?

This is a serious question. In your opinion, is it possible for a 21-year-old basketball player to improve his/her shooting over the course of a summer?

I say yes. Not easy or even likely or everyone would do it. But possible? Definitely.

Without getting involved in the examples or anything else you've been discussing, I agree with this part of it. A player can definitely improve his shooting with a lot of time and a LOT of hard work. Which is why it's much less likely to happen during a season vs. during the off-season. In order to get drastic improvement, one would probably have to completely alter one's shot mechanics, which most guys refuse to do and most coaches seem reluctant to suggest, but it's certainly possible.

Whether Amile Jefferson will improve drastically is a whole different question.

[jv001]

Without getting involved in the examples or anything else you've been discussing, I agree with this part of it. A player can definitely improve his shooting with a lot of time and a LOT of hard work. Which is why it's much less likely to happen during a season vs. during the off-season. In order to get drastic improvement, one would probably have to completely alter one's shot mechanics, which most guys refuse to do and most coaches seem reluctant to suggest, but it's certainly possible.

Whether Amile Jefferson will improve drastically is a whole different question.

If I remember correctly, Grant got help from a former Duke player to improve his outside shot. I think it was Chip England but I could be wrong. So, it is possible for a player to improve his shooting over the summer. I remember Smith improving his shot as well. Back in DeMarc's day, I often wished he'd get help on his shot as well. GoDuke!

[uh_no]

IMO lots of Duke basketball players have improved their shooting abilities over the course of a season or more and I believe I have provided examples to support that belief.


I don't disagree. The question is whether an increased percentage is due to random variance or an actual improved shot. Sometimes it's very hard to tell.

Take mason's senior year...he started on FIRE from the line, and it was a huge story, but then regressed somewhat. Did he stop practicing and get worse? Or more likely he shot on the far end of the bell curve at the beginning of the season, and more towards the left end later on. Not to bring on kenpom backlash, but he had a blog post at one point where he had evidence that an entire season isn't even enough to rule out random variance in many cases (I think it was trying to disprove the sophomore slump or something).

This isn't to contradict your thesis, I absolutely agree players can get better over the course of a season (and in fact that mason absolutely was a better FT shooter his senior year), just that single season anecdotes may not be 100% infalliable.

[CDu]

I don't disagree. The question is whether an increased percentage is due to random variance or an actual improved shot. Sometimes it's very hard to tell.

Take mason's senior year...he started on FIRE from the line, and it was a huge story, but then regressed somewhat. Did he stop practicing and get worse? Or more likely he shot on the far end of the bell curve at the beginning of the season, and more towards the left end later on. Not to bring on kenpom backlash, but he had a blog post at one point where he had evidence that an entire season isn't even enough to rule out random variance in many cases (I think it was trying to disprove the sophomore slump or something).

This isn't to contradict your thesis, I absolutely agree players can get better over the course of a season (and in fact that mason absolutely was a better FT shooter his senior year), just that single season anecdotes may not be 100% infalliable.

The small sample size issue is huge in this regard. Anyone watching Battier as a high school senior and as a freshman at Duke knew he could shoot. They may not have been confident he would top 40% on 3s each of the next 3 years. But he could shoot. But when you only take 24 attempts, strange results can happen.

Similarly, you could tell Avery could shoot, even though the results weren't great as a frosh. I mean, do you really think Coach K would let Avery take over 100 3s if he wasn't a good shooter (especially when he had plenty of alternatives)?

Dahntay Jones was a 34.5% 3pt shooter as a soph on over 100 attempts. Did he suddenly forget how to shoot when he came to Duke? No, but variability in results (combined with a small sample of 52) found him shooting under 25% as a junior.

These things happen.

My point is not that it is impossible for Amile to learn to shoot better from the field in one summer. I just think it is highly unlikely for a guy with as bad a touch as Jefferson's to suddenly be a good shooter as a senior. I certainly hope he defies the odds, but I wouldn't count on it.

[Newton_14]

From a jumpshooting stand point, I think the best comp for Amile is probably Lance. I could see Amile making the type of improvement Lance made from Jr year to Sr year, where not prolific, LT made enough mid-range jumpers to keep the defense honest. Amile is a much better scorer at the rim than Lance was already. Which brings up the real issue to be honest, in that Amile, for whatever reason, has stopped doing the type of scoring he is actually good at (unc game notwithstanding. Amile was good on offense last Wednesday). Amile stops being aggressive for some bizarre reason, and if he were remaining aggressive at taking the shots he can make at a high percentage, this current discussion is likely never occurring.

He needs to both attack the basket off the dribble and in post moves, while also taking much more often than he does now, the right handed jumphooks, push shots, from like 3 to 9 feet. He has shown good touch on those type shots both off the glass, and straight at the hoop. He needs to make his mind up that he is going to take X amount of good shots from those spots on the floor game in and game out, while also mixing in one or two 15 foot set shots per game. I say set shot because he can't shoot a normal jumpshot, its more of a set shot which is fine because the defense is going to let him take it without trying to block it so elevation is a non-issue. Interestingly enough, the summer league at Central was still going on the summer before Amile's freshman season. I watched him swish two 3-pointers in the same game that summer. He took his time and both were set shots, but he made I believe 2 of 3 that night. I am not recommending he start jacking up 3 or 4 three pointers per night, but it would be interesting to see him try one or two in a game. At this point, I would still settle though, for him just taking several of the shots he is good at making every single game. Especially against the Syracuse zone. Turn and face up, take your time and shoot what amounts to be a Free Throw, or take one step and dribble forward and shoot the floater, or finally, drive it right into the chest of the defender laying off so deep in the paint he is actually below the block/charge line. I am confident good things would happen against Syracuse if Amile would choose one of those 3 options early an often.

[MarkD83]

I think it says more about Coach K's recruiting/talent identification prowess than his ability to "coach them up." Tyus Jones (like Okafor and Winslow) walked onto campus with this brilliant game. That is not to say that Coach K isn't a terrific developer of talent; just that I don't think he is the one responsible for bringing out the brilliance of these guys. They were brilliant from day one; the the impressive thing was getting them here.

True, but he could have insisted on Duke playing man to man all season, or he could have insisted that Jah play on the perimeter and Tyus should never drive or always walk it up the court. I know that the players have a lot of talent but a coach who does not recognize the talents of the players and put them in the right scheme will cause that talent to be wasted.

[Troublemaker]

I've posted this video of Amile working on his perimeter skills before, but in case anyone hasn't seen it and is interested, here it is again: http://youtu.be/m223V2uRuEU?t=35s

He looks decent shooting against no defense in a practice setting (but I suspect many poor shooters would). Hopefully he is healthy this upcoming summer and can get back to working on those skills.

I do think Amile will have a great senior season and become a great senior leader because that's what Duke seniors tend to do. Whether that means he has an accurate mid-range shot next season or not, I'm not sure.

[jv001]

I've posted this video of Amile working on his perimeter skills before, but in case anyone hasn't seen it and is interested, here it is again: http://youtu.be/m223V2uRuEU?t=35s

He looks decent shooting against no defense in a practice setting (but I suspect many poor shooters would). Hopefully he is healthy this upcoming summer and can get back to working on those skills.

I do think Amile will have a great senior season and become a great senior leader because that's what Duke seniors tend to do. Whether that means he has an accurate mid-range shot next season or not, I'm not sure.

Thanks for that video. Amile showed pretty good shooting form in those drills but as you indicated that was against no defense. What I liked about his shooting here is the arc on his shot. It wasn't near as flat as in games. Let's hope he does continue to work hard this offseason and can at least come in shooting as Lance did his senior season. I don't look for him to be a 3 point shooter, but if he can hit the mid-range shot and his foul shots, he'd help the team greatly. GoDuke!

[sagegrouse]

I think it says more about Coach K's recruiting/talent identification prowess than his ability to "coach them up." Tyus Jones (like Okafor and Winslow) walked onto campus with this brilliant game. That is not to say that Coach K isn't a terrific developer of talent; just that I don't think he is the one responsible for bringing out the brilliance of these guys. They were brilliant from day one; the the impressive thing was getting them here.

Uhhh..., maybe, CDu, although K provides both coaching and leadership, which every player and team need. This team has developed nicely, considering it is starting three freshman, and I believe K and the coaching staff deserve a lot of credit. Here are some examples: Zone defense? Did you really believe Duke was going to play extensive zone defense after 40 years of K's coaching only man-to-man? Making Quinn happy to play the shooting guard position, when his future career will be as a point guard. Handling the Rasheed "situation," which I don't pretend to understand, except that Duke has played much better since he left.

[AIRFORCEDUKIE]

IMO lots of Duke basketball players have improved their shooting abilities over the course of a season or more and I believe I have provided examples to support that belief.

So, I'm a bit befuddled by the implication that bad shooting stats don't actually reflect bad shooting. The guy who shoots 4-24 didn't shoot enough for us to conclude that 17 percent isn't very good shooting. The guy that shot 32-108 just lacked confidence. A player who made exactly zero 3-pointers in 1997 was in fact a "capable" 3-point shooter that season. Not sure how we draw that conclusion. Grant Hill could have been a great 3-point shooter for 3 seasons but Duke didn't need him to. Mason Plumlee improved his foul shooting more than 15 percentage points between his junior and senior seasons and that proves your contention that Amile Jefferson cannot or will not improve his shooting between his junior and senior season?

I remember a conversation I had with John Smith. He spent his first three years at Duke playing inside. Duke was bringing in Christian Laettner and Crawford Palmer the next season and Alaa Abdelnaby was starting to figure it out. So, Mike Krzyzewski told Smith Duke would need him to play on the wing as a senior. So, Smith woodshedded all summer, shooting jumper after jumper after jumper.

John Smith seemed to think he improved his shooting that summer? Was he wrong? Is shooting a genetic gift not amenable to improvement? Can no one better this aspect of one's game with smart coaching and hard work?

This is a serious question. In your opinion, is it possible for a 21-year-old basketball player to improve his/her shooting over the course of a summer?

I say yes. Not easy or even likely or everyone would do it. But possible? Definitely.

I am 32 and took a long time off of playing basketball. However, I started playing again and joined a league. I improved my shooting over the course of 2 weeks, so I would say it would be pretty easy for a college athlete to improve their shooting with hard work. Really all it takes is a little confidence, and to see the ball go through the hoop a few times and its on.

[johnb]

I know this is old, please forgive, I've had a long week and I am just catching up on this thread.

But SMU is a great academic school? Are you confusing the fact that Obi came from Rice and Semi transferred to SMU (both in Texas), or do you truly believe that SMU is a great academic school? I'm genuinely curious.

SMU is a very solid regional university. It's not "great" like Harvard is great, but, outside of Rice and the University of Texas, it has the strongest academic reputation in Texas. And for the non-science/math person who wants a smallish private school, SMU is tops in Texas and sits comfortably in the top tier of excellent southern regional universities (alongside--though perhaps a shade below--Tulane, Emory, and Vanderbilt). My view is that it is held down somewhat by being located in a big, rich city that happens to be anti-intellectual and religiously conservative and hence skeptical of higher education. This leads to big donations for the business and divinity schools and underfunded departments in the humanities, but it is still a very good school. I live in NYC, where most academically elite kids go to private colleges, but I grew up in Texas, where most kids in the top 5-10% of their classes want to go to Texas or A&M; SMU pulls for a particular demographic (the modal student is pale, affluent, politically conservative, not especially intellectual, and preppy), but the kids are also bright and do their homework. "Great" might be an overstatement, but there are plenty of people in Palo Alto, Cambridge, and New Haven, who wouldn't apply the word "great" to any school in the midwest or south, including ours.

I'd add that elite basketball players (as in top 100 players) view college differently than do non-athletes. That leads to prospective college lists that sometimes seem odd to us. For example, which of us ever had a final top 5 of Duke, Kentucky, Kansas, UCLA, and Mississippi State? This could easily be a list of an academically-oriented 6'11" kid from Jackson, MS. I like Semi a lot, and, for him, as a kid from small town Kansas, SMU is in the same general ballpark as Duke: small, private, affluent, academically oriented, and dominated by a historically white subculture. SMU is also closer to home and features a roster not packed with players more skilled than he is (though still top 25). So, yeah, from the perspective of a player, SMU is a great school and far from being a basketball factory which he could also have chosen.

[Troublemaker]

SMU is a very solid regional university. It's not "great" like Harvard is great, but, outside of Rice and the University of Texas, it has the strongest academic reputation in Texas. And for the non-science/math person who wants a smallish private school, SMU is tops in Texas and sits comfortably in the top tier of excellent southern regional universities (alongside--though perhaps a shade below--Tulane, Emory, and Vanderbilt). My view is that it is held down somewhat by being located in a big, rich city that happens to be anti-intellectual and religiously conservative and hence skeptical of higher education. This leads to big donations for the business and divinity schools and underfunded departments in the humanities, but it is still a very good school. I live in NYC, where most academically elite kids go to private colleges, but I grew up in Texas, where most kids in the top 5-10% of their classes want to go to Texas or A&M; SMU pulls for a particular demographic (the modal student is pale, affluent, politically conservative, not especially intellectual, and preppy), but the kids are also bright and do their homework. "Great" might be an overstatement, but there are plenty of people in Palo Alto, Cambridge, and New Haven, who wouldn't apply the word "great" to any school in the midwest or south, including ours.

I'd add that elite basketball players (as in top 100 players) view college differently than do non-athletes. That leads to prospective college lists that sometimes seem odd to us. For example, which of us ever had a final top 5 of Duke, Kentucky, Kansas, UCLA, and Mississippi State? This could easily be a list of an academically-oriented 6'11" kid from Jackson, MS. I like Semi a lot, and, for him, as a kid from small town Kansas, SMU is in the same general ballpark as Duke: small, private, affluent, academically oriented, and dominated by a historically white subculture. SMU is also closer to home and features a roster not packed with players more skilled than he is (though still top 25). So, yeah, from the perspective of a player, SMU is a great school and far from being a basketball factory which he could also have chosen.

If anyone's ever checked out Semi's twitter account, you know how devout he is. SMU and the general DFW area are a very nice fit for a devout Evangelical like Semi. And he gets to be coached by Hall-of-Famer Larry Brown. SMU's academics may be top 60 instead of top 15, but I think he made a great choice.

[Jeffrey]

And for the non-science/math person who wants a smallish private school, SMU is tops in Texas

Hi,

In that regard, it's better than Southwestern University?

[jimsumner]

The small sample size issue is huge in this regard. Anyone watching Battier as a high school senior and as a freshman at Duke knew he could shoot. They may not have been confident he would top 40% on 3s each of the next 3 years. But he could shoot. But when you only take 24 attempts, strange results can happen.

Similarly, you could tell Avery could shoot, even though the results weren't great as a frosh. I mean, do you really think Coach K would let Avery take over 100 3s if he wasn't a good shooter (especially when he had plenty of alternatives)?

Dahntay Jones was a 34.5% 3pt shooter as a soph on over 100 attempts. Did he suddenly forget how to shoot when he came to Duke? No, but variability in results (combined with a small sample of 52) found him shooting under 25% as a junior.

These things happen.

My point is not that it is impossible for Amile to learn to shoot better from the field in one summer. I just think it is highly unlikely for a guy with as bad a touch as Jefferson's to suddenly be a good shooter as a senior. I certainly hope he defies the odds, but I wouldn't count on it.

So, it's 1998 and you have two freshmen who you think are quality shooters from outside. One takes over 100 3s and misses 70 percent of them. This proves he's a good shooter because K let him shoot that many.

The other only takes 24 and misses 20 of them. But this doesn't mean anything because the sample size is too small. But this begs the question. If the 4-24 player is such a good shooter, why doesn't the coach let him shoot more? Battier was on the floor for 887 minutes in 1998 and took only 24 3-point shots despite the fact that he was a capable 3-point shooter. How often has K muzzled a capable 3-point shooter? Battier averaged less than 8ppg that season, so it's not like he dominating on the blocks.

Is there a sweet spot here between too few and too many? We seem to have reached the point where it's impossible to prove that anyone is a bad 3-point shooter. If they take and miss a lot, that just confirms that they're good shooters because they took a lot and if they take a few and miss most of them, that doesn't prove anything. I mean Mason Plumlee was 2-10 on 3s early in his career, but I guess the coaching staff was wrong in telling him to stop taking that shot because the sample size was too small.

[throatybeard]

I'm concerned that fewer than 100% of posts on this board are concerned with depth. Should the moderators and the King family have done more to prevent that?

Let's all talk about the UNC academic scandal more.

OK, seriously, to the original question. The coaching staff recruited Okafor, Wislow and TJones in one year. Short of petitioning to restore Lebron James' eligibility, I don't know what the heck else they could have done to build depth for this year.

[flyingdutchdevil]

OK, seriously, to the original question. The coaching staff recruited Okafor, Wislow and TJones in one year. Short of petitioning to restore Lebron James' eligibility, I don't know what the heck else they could have done to build depth for this year.

Sent Pagliuca or little Kelly to Dr. Frankenstein for some "cosmetic" surgery and then Biogenesis for some "vitamins"?

[Jeffrey]

Hi,

Last summer, I don't think any reasonable person would have placed more than a 50% probability on this being the last Duke season for Okafor, Wislow, T. Jones, Sulaimon, and Ojeleye. At this point, IMO, that's a reasonable estimate.

The CEO makes the big bucks to deal effectively with these challenges. History shows, Coach will do just that.

[Tripping William]

OK, seriously, to the original question. The coaching staff recruited Okafor, Wislow and TJones in one year. Short of petitioning to restore Lebron James' eligibility, I don't know what the heck else they could have done to build depth for this year.

Well, for starters, they could have added a seriously athletic Mickie D's guard from Jacksonville, FL. :cool:

[El_Diablo]

Sent Pagliuca or little Kelly to Dr. Frankenstein for some "cosmetic" surgery and then Biogenesis for some "vitamins"?

That's pretty much what we did for Patrick Johnson:

http://www.dukechronicle.com/articles/2005/03/11/patrick-johnson-cyborg#.VOut9i4_ajw