MBB: UNC at Duke (Wed Feb 18, 9 PM, ESPN) Pre-game and In-Game Thread

[Dev11]

Duke just weathered one of the strangest officiated games this season. UNC just got beat at the Oakland Zoo.

Anybody excited?

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Duke just weathered one of the strangest officiated games this season. UNC just got beat at the Oakland Zoo.

Anybody excited?

We are playing good ball. Let's go get em.

[Henderson]

I'll tell you who is not excited: the folks over at IC. Much dread and talk of not being able to watch it. Fear of damaging the TV and whatnot.

[moonpie23]

let's don't get absorbed in reading the press clippings..


unc is desperate and will bring their A game.......duke has to be ready....it won't be easy...

[CDu]

A win in this one and we will be in the driver's seat for at least the #3 seed in the ACC tourney.

That, and winning against UNC is always fun. Let's win.

[Dukehky]

Only worry is that Meeks gets Jah into early foul trouble. That's the only way we lose this game. I actually think that Meeks is their best player this year. Paige is always a threat, but Meeks is playing really well this year.

I hate them, let's stomp them.

[uh_no]

A win in this one and we will be in the driver's seat for at least the #3 seed in the ACC tourney.

That, and winning against UNC is always fun. Let's win.

If duke and ND win out, duke gets the 2 seed due to their win over UVA. Not that you're wrong, that they all but lock up a top 3 seed, but they control their destiny ("are in the drivers seat") for a 2 seed at the moment.

[awhom111]

For those who want the alternate ACC Network feed, it will be broadcast on the following TV stations:
http://www.theacc.com/news/acc-network-affiliates-north-carolina-at-duke-02-18-2015

I think it may be available online here as well:
http://www.theacc.com/game-center/54497431e4b095a65406e0a1

Again after the ESPN contract, this game is now a coexist and no longer blacked out on one outlet. I do feel bad for any fans who want to watch BC-FSU who are unlucky with the weird choice to have a split ACC network game in the timeslot.

[NYBri]

9f, 9f.

[devildeac]

Wake up, Ozzie. You've got a got to do.

4754

[Duke3517]

Not one of Roy Williams best squads. They don't have the NBA talent to go deep in March.

Duke won't take them lightly. Paige vs Jones is one of the more intriguing matchups. I just don't like UNC's overall body of talent in this game to overcome Duke.

[dukelifer]

We are playing good ball. Let's go get em.
Need to come out with energy and get them down early. UNC has a lot of players. I expect they will use them. Always a tough game because of the emotion. Hard to know how the young guys will react. If they Jah into foul trouble - and they have the bodies to do it- it could be a challenge.

[coot]

Jah played excellent vs. Syracuse when in foul trouble. He will be fine either way. Duke will have a fight if he is in foul trouble but he is good at playing well under those circumstances.

As stated up stream, Duke is playing well now. Chemistry is good and defense is getting progressively better.

Wednesday will be fun. Especially for Quinn, what a great leader he has become.

Coot

[CDu]

If duke and ND win out, duke gets the 2 seed due to their win over UVA. Not that you're wrong, that they all but lock up a top 3 seed, but they control their destiny ("are in the drivers seat") for a 2 seed at the moment.

My point with the "in the driver's seat" comment was that, with a win, they could lose the UNC game in Chapel Hill and still be the 3 seed. Winning Wednesday takes a ton of pressure off the rest of the way. Losing Wednesday opens the door to winding up in the 5 spot.

[Seattle Hoo]

Duke should beat the pants off UNC, but then UVA needed Wake to dribble down his pants leg for a win yesterday, and Duke has losses to NC State and Miami, so.... This has been a great ACC season so far, and what's a great ACC season without a great UNC-Duke game or two? BTW: I feel cheated out of the home-and-homes with Duke and UNC. Another lousy side effect of the Governor forcing UVA to let "Murder U" into the ACC is being chained to those losers as our "rival." At least we now have Louisville instead of Maryland. But I digress....

Oh, idea... I wonder if Duke, UNC and UVA could set up out-of-conference home-and-home series like the thing UNC and Wake did in football? Then we could go to Cameron and the Dome every year, and host you all every year.

Back to the game. Whichever team reaches into its pool of intangibles more is going to win. I'm going to make a special effort to watch this one. Time for my SlingTV trial

[gurufrisbee]

I hate these NC games. The whole season feels exponentially worse if we lose and better if we win, but stressful before the game knowing they always can go either way. They have talent and athleticism and depth and good coaching and will no doubt get jacked up for it as a way to honor Smith by beating us. I really hope Cook has his best game of the year with it being his last home game against them (I know that could be true for other folks, but I'm not going there).

[Troublemaker]

Paige vs Jones is one of the more intriguing matchups.

Tyus and Paige will match up some, but I figure it'll be mostly a Quinn vs Paige battle since Paige goes off the ball so much. Especially from the Duke side of things, I think Coach K will put Quinn on Paige from the start. Quinn has guarded Paige very well in the past. That's one of the reasons why I don't expect Duke to zone much in this game. The other reason is that UNC is the #2 offensive rebounding team in the country.

[OldPhiKap]

Looking forward to how Jahzilla, Tyus and Justise react to their first Duke-Carolina game. "It's why you come to Duke" -- to be in games like this.

I like the fact that they all seem to rise for the big game. This should be a war.

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

I hate these NC games. The whole season feels exponentially worse if we lose and better if we win, but stressful before the game knowing they always can go either way. They have talent and athleticism and depth and good coaching and will no doubt get jacked up for it as a way to honor Smith by beating us. I really hope Cook has his best game of the year with it being his last home game against them (I know that could be true for other folks, but I'm not going there).
I hope they are just as jacked up for Smith on Wed as they were yesterday.

[bbosbbos]

Every game is important to us if we want to win another NC. Please stay calm and run the cheaters out of CIS.

9f9f9f

[NSDukeFan]

Looking forward to how Jahzilla, Tyus and Justise react to their first Duke-Carolina game. "It's why you come to Duke" -- to be in games like this.

I like the fact that they all seem to rise for the big game. This should be a war.

There have been a lot of "It's why you come to Duke" games so far this year, but the games against UNC are always among them.

[Billy Dat]

I am glad we are playing them at home in the first one as I feel like we could use that extra push.

On paper, we should win.

The Heels certainly have the size to bother us. There could be some real interesting chess moves in terms of going big vs small throughout the game. While some of it was foul trouble, the Syracuse game saw both the two big line-up (Jah and Marshall) and the no big line-up. I actually thought the no big looked pretty good for a stretch.

We have looked good when we have pushed the ball, but will that play into the Heels typical desire to play fast?

9f! 9f! 9 mo fo f!

[NSDukeFan]

I am glad we are playing them at home in the first one as I feel like we could use that extra push.

On paper, we should win.

The Heels certainly have the size to bother us. There could be some real interesting chess moves in terms of going big vs small throughout the game. While some of it was foul trouble, the Syracuse game saw both the two big line-up (Jah and Marshall) and the no big line-up. I actually thought the no big looked pretty good for a stretch.

We have looked good when we have pushed the ball, but will that play into the Heels typical desire to play fast?

9f! 9f! 9 mo fo f!

Isn't part of UNC's regular desire to play fast to have more possessions to give themselves a better chance to separate themselves if they are the more talented team? I don't think that works against Duke this year. I believe they also do tend to drill well about scoring on the break and secondary break which has been a problem for Duke in games that it hasn't defended well. If both teams want to push the ball, this could be an entertaining game.

[Seattle Hoo]

If both teams want to push the ball, this could be an entertaining game.

Or it could be dreadfully sloppy.

[Duvall]

Or it could be dreadfully sloppy.

Unlikely the way this Duke team - especially Tyus Jones - passes in transition.

[Henderson]

Unlikely the way this Duke team - especially Tyus Jones - passes in transition.

I'm glad somebody said this. I just got finished watching the replay of the Syracuse game and was so impressed by the passing in transition. Many points were scored as a result.

Then I was thinking, "Hey, this has been going on all year."

Tyus. Others too, but Tyus...

[superdave]

Uncs transition offense concerns me because we have shown significant weakness in that area at times. The Wake game stands out because they just chucked the outlet pass out for anyone to get and it worked.

I am also worried about our defensive rebounding. If we don't make this a huge point emphasis Unc can get a lot of cheap buckets because we are asleep. They have pretty good length up front as well.

We will slow this game down and force them to execute better than they typically do. Outside of Paige and Meeks they don't scare me unless we let them run and crash the boards. By the way this post is a generic critique of almost all of the last 5 years for Roy's teams.

[Jderf]

Finally, basketball season is starting. GTHC.

[Bob Green]

Tyus and Paige will match up some, but I figure it'll be mostly a Quinn vs Paige battle since Paige goes off the ball so much. Especially from the Duke side of things, I think Coach K will put Quinn on Paige from the start. Quinn has guarded Paige very well in the past. That's one of the reasons why I don't expect Duke to zone much in this game. The other reason is that UNC is the #2 offensive rebounding team in the country.

Keeping UNC off the offensive glass will be one of the keys to the game so I agree with Troublemaker we will not see a lot of zone defense in this game. The man-to-man match-ups will be intriguing. Will Coach K employ the Twin Towers? Brice Johnson can be UNC's most dangerous player when he gets on a roll and the Twin Towers might be effective against him. I'd like to see Coach K make a defensive switch inside and cover Johnson with Okafor:

Meeks - Plumlee
Johnson - Okafor
Tokoto - Winslow
Jackson - Tyus Jones
Paige - Cook

Okafor will frustrate Johnson by preventing him from establish position close to the basket for his jump hook shot. I believe we could see Johson pick up a couple of cheap offensive fouls if he has to score against Okafor.

An alternative tactic would be to cover Johnson with Winslow and have Matt Jones in the game covering Tokoto. Either way, I believe taking Johnson out of the game will be a focus point. He is UNC's leading rebounder and second leading scorer.

[-bdbd]

Looking at the ACC standings, we have five great (top-12) ACC teams fighting for the top four slots, as #5 has to play earlier in the week. It is nice to note, too, that with the NC@ch blow-out loss against Pitt on Sat., and the NCSU win over 'ville, NC and the Cards are the leading contenders for that #5 spot. A loss in this one goes a long way to putting NC in that early-week game in Greensboro. Just a little extra incentive....
;)

[SupaDave]

Heels will be complaining about the refs after the first 10 mins. Duke by 15.

[gofurman]

Need to come out with energy and get them down early. UNC has a lot of players. I expect they will use them. Always a tough game because of the emotion. Hard to know how the young guys will react. If they Jah into foul trouble - and they have the bodies to do it- it could be a challenge.

Stackhouse and Rasheed shoulda dominated capel etc. but it went to OT. These games always scare me. Please take it seriously and kill them!! Besides. Nothing better than a whoopin of UNC. Don't get many shots at that. UVA escapes Wake. Louisville loses to State. All games are scary. All

Losing hurts more than winning feels good

[Kedsy]

I'd like to see Coach K make a defensive switch inside and cover Johnson with Okafor:

Meeks - Plumlee
Johnson - Okafor
Tokoto - Winslow
Jackson - Tyus Jones
Paige - Cook

Justin Jackson is 6'8". I'd get a little nervous about Tyus (or Quinn) having to guard someone 7 inches taller. Not sure what the defensive solution is, but it's something to think about.

[CDu]

Justin Jackson is 6'8". I'd get a little nervous about Tyus (or Quinn) having to guard someone 7 inches taller. Not sure what the defensive solution is, but it's something to think about.

Thankfully, two things work in our favor: (1) Jackson plays a pretty small/soft 6'8", and (2) Williams will play a fair amount of Britt and Paige together. But Cook and Tyus Jones are going to share the court for 30+ minutes, so there is still going to be a fair amount of time that one of them will be guarding someone much bigger.

[OldPhiKap]

1. This match-up is made for Justise and Tyus to run down their throats all game long.

2. Zone, baby, zone.

[Wander]

Not sure what the defensive solution is, but it's something to think about.

Just let Matt Jones cover Paige when Paige is off-ball. If we just do that and play our normal defense, I think we'll be fine. I don't think UNC is as bad as some people here but I like the way we match up with them - mostly that they don't have a great second guard or shooter. My biggest defensive concern against UNC is defensive rebounding out of a zone - if we struggle I think that will be the reason and not a "who covers who" matchup thing.

[CDu]

Just let Matt Jones cover Paige when Paige is off-ball. If we just do that and play our normal defense, I think we'll be fine. I don't think UNC is as bad as some people here but I like the way we match up with them - mostly that they don't have a great second guard or shooter. My biggest defensive concern against UNC is defensive rebounding out of a zone - if we struggle I think that will be the reason and not a "who covers who" matchup thing.

That would put both Cook and Tyus Jones on much bigger guys. No matter how you slice it, we are going to spend a lot of time with at least one of our small guards defending a much taller player.

I would tend to prefer Cook to guard Paige as much as possible.

[Wheat/"/"/"]

You never know what to really expect in this game, and with all the freshmen who are gonna get prime time play on both sides...who the heck knows how anybody is going to react?

Contrary to the ignorant narrative anti UNC fans like to hear themselves pontificate about, Roy Williams is an excellent X's and O's coach. His teams run complicated offensive plays with multiple screening to get the shots they want to take. Defensively, his teams rely on multiple defensive sets and changes.

UNC has a tactical system, and Roy coaches his players in the X's and O's to use their strengths against whatever defense they face. Unfortunately, how this particular team is executing his X's and O's has not been consistent as past UNC teams, in effort and intelligence.

Offensively, I think you'll see his tactics in this game when UNC pounds the ball inside. We'll see baseline screens and back screens looking to find Johnson and Tokoto over the top of the defense. It won't be a surprise to see UNC go straight at Okafor and try to get him in foul trouble.

The other thing I think that will be important for UNC is the dribble penetration from Justin Jackson. Again to go at Okafor, but also to take advantage of a Duke defense that likes to over play. It would be nice if Tokoto would attack the rim too, but I've lost confidence in his willingness to attack off the dribble. I don't think Winslow can stay in front of Jackson and he has a quick first step, a nice mid range game that he will have to bring for UNC to be successful.

Paige is going to look to drive too, Britt not so much. A wildcard might be Berry and a green light to dribble drive. He's a strong PG and can get to the rim, but as a freshman, I'm not sure Roy has the confidence in him yet that he can finish.

My concerns in this game are more defensively than offensively for a UNC win.

Who is gonna man up and defend Cook? He's the key guy to me that UNC has got to handle. If he goes off it could get ugly. Keep him in check and UNC can win this one.

My bet is Tokoto gets the call and gets challenged by Roy to be the defender he's capable of showing. Paige will get him some, but it's a better matchup for UNC to have him on Jones. Tokoto and Paige better shadow him all night, never leave Cook, make somebody else beat you.

Jackson's going to get Winslow and will have keep in front of him, denying the drive, which I think he can. But that's going to give Winslow some looks from deep. All UNC can hope for then is Jacksons length bothers him and he doesent have a great shooting night. They'll have to take their chances there, we can't afford to have him get to the rim.

I think we will see Meeks and James on Okafor. They are the only guys strong enough who can keep him from getting the prime low post position where he can't be stopped. You stop him before he gets the ball, not after. Meeks is going to have to show the want to to deny him that spot because Okafor will have the want to to take it.

Johnson will get Jefferson and will need to box him out, focus on rebounding, and not get sucked into trying to weak side block Okafor.

The good news for UNC is Duke has not shown a real commitment to getting it inside to Okafor if there's any sort of jump shot or dribble drive avaiable to the wings.

Personally, I'd go all Jimmy V on you guys and throw a box and one on Cook with Tokoto just for a curve at some point. That's how much I fear Cook going off.

Duke is heavily dependent on the 3 ball, shocker I know. An average or sub par shooting night and UNC can win.

Nobody beats them if they shoot over 40% for the game.

[OldPhiKap]

W
You never know what to really expect in this game, and with all the freshmen who are gonna get prime time play on both sides...who the heck knows how anybody is going to react?

Contrary to the ignorant narrative anti UNC fans like to hear themselves pontificate about, Roy Williams is an excellent X's and O's coach. His teams run complicated offensive plays with multiple screening to get the shots they want to take. Defensively, his teams rely on multiple defensive sets and changes.

UNC has a tactical system, and Roy coaches his players in the X's and O's to use their strengths against whatever defense they face. Unfortunately, how this particular team is executing his X's and O's has not been consistent as past UNC teams, in effort and intelligence.

Offensively, I think you'll see his tactics in this game when UNC pounds the ball inside. We'll see baseline screens and back screens looking to find Johnson and Tokoto over the top of the defense. It won't be a surprise to see UNC go straight at Okafor and try to get him in foul trouble.

The other thing I think that will be important for UNC is the dribble penetration from Justin Jackson. Again to go at Okafor, but also to take advantage of a Duke defense that likes to over play. It would be nice if Tokoto would attack the rim too, but I've lost confidence in his willingness to attack off the dribble. I don't think Winslow can stay in front of Jackson and he has a quick first step, a nice mid range game that he will have to bring for UNC to be successful.

Paige is going to look to drive too, Britt not so much. A wildcard might be Berry and a green light to dribble drive. He's a strong PG and can get to the rim, but as a freshman, I'm not sure Roy has the confidence in him yet that he can finish.

My concerns in this game are more defensively than offensively for a UNC win.

Who is gonna man up and defend Cook? He's the key guy to me that UNC has got to handle. If he goes off it could get ugly. Keep him in check and UNC can win this one.

My bet is Tokoto gets the call and gets challenged by Roy to be the defender he's capable of showing. Paige will get him some, but it's a better matchup for UNC to have him on Jones. Tokoto and Paige better shadow him all night, never leave Cook, make somebody else beat you.

Jackson's going to get Winslow and will have keep in front of him, denying the drive, which I think he can. But that's going to give Winslow some looks from deep. All UNC can hope for then is Jacksons length bothers him and he doesent have a great shooting night. They'll have to take their chances there, we can't afford to have him get to the rim.

I think we will see Meeks and James on Okafor. They are the only guys strong enough who can keep him from getting the prime low post position where he can't be stopped. You stop him before he gets the ball, not after. Meeks is going to have to show the want to to deny him that spot because Okafor will have the want to to take it.

Johnson will get Jefferson and will need to box him out, focus on rebounding, and not get sucked into trying to weak side block Okafor.

The good news for UNC is Duke has not shown a real commitment to getting it inside to Okafor if there's any sort of jump shot or dribble drive avaiable to the wings.

Personally, I'd go all Jimmy V on you guys and throw a box and one on Cook with Tokoto just for a curve at some point. That's how much I fear Cook going off.

Duke is heavily dependent on the 3 ball, shocker I know. An average or sub par shooting night and UNC can win.

Nobody beats them if they shoot over 40% for the game.

Many things I would like to address in this thoughtful post, Wheat. But the one that strikes me -- your view of Cook's importance. Because I absolutely agree, although he often gets overlooked by the flash and figures of the freshmen. Cook is a big key. This team really needs all five on the floor to perform though, we need to mesh. Cook is the experienced chef, so to speak.

Good luck, hope no injuries for either team. Should be fun. I figure we will split the games, so hope we take the first one at home then take our chances in CHill.

[Troublemaker]

The good news for UNC is Duke has not shown a real commitment to getting it inside to Okafor if there's any sort of jump shot or dribble drive avaiable to the wings.

Okafor averages more postups per game than any major conference player in the past 4 years of college basketball:

http://www.si.com/sites/default/files/2015/02/05/duke.gif

Source: Luke Winn's February 5th Power Rankings (http://www.si.com/college-basketball/2015/02/05/power-rankings-kentucky-virginia-gonzaga-duke)

[Troublemaker]

Duke is heavily dependent on the 3 ball, shocker I know. An average or sub par shooting night and UNC can win.

Duke only gets 27.7% of our points from three-pointers, a percentage that ranks 196th in the country.

Source: KenPom

[Troublemaker]

An average or sub par shooting night and UNC can win. Nobody beats them if they shoot over 40% for the game.

In Duke's loss to Notre Dame, we shot 44% from three.

[OldPhiKap]

Okafor averages more postups per game than any major conference player in the past 4 years of college basketball:

http://www.si.com/sites/default/files/2015/02/05/duke.gif

Source: Luke Winn's February 5th Power Rankings (http://www.si.com/college-basketball/2015/02/05/power-rankings-kentucky-virginia-gonzaga-duke)

Yeah, but does he head fake?

[Troublemaker]

Jackson's going to get Winslow and will have keep in front of him, denying the drive, which I think he can.

That would be a major change from high school: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WKu6EoR1pFY

(They are both from the Houston area and have played before.)

[Duvall]

That would be a major change from high school: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WKu6EoR1pFY

(They are both from the Houston area and have played before.)

Wow. There was...a lot of Jackson in that highlight reel.

[SupaDave]

You never know what to really expect in this game, and with all the freshmen who are gonna get prime time play on both sides...who the heck knows how anybody is going to react?

Contrary to the ignorant narrative anti UNC fans like to hear themselves pontificate about, Roy Williams is an excellent X's and O's coach. His teams run complicated offensive plays with multiple screening to get the shots they want to take. Defensively, his teams rely on multiple defensive sets and changes.

UNC has a tactical system, and Roy coaches his players in the X's and O's to use their strengths against whatever defense they face. Unfortunately, how this particular team is executing his X's and O's has not been consistent as past UNC teams, in effort and intelligence.

Offensively, I think you'll see his tactics in this game when UNC pounds the ball inside. We'll see baseline screens and back screens looking to find Johnson and Tokoto over the top of the defense. It won't be a surprise to see UNC go straight at Okafor and try to get him in foul trouble.

The other thing I think that will be important for UNC is the dribble penetration from Justin Jackson. Again to go at Okafor, but also to take advantage of a Duke defense that likes to over play. It would be nice if Tokoto would attack the rim too, but I've lost confidence in his willingness to attack off the dribble. I don't think Winslow can stay in front of Jackson and he has a quick first step, a nice mid range game that he will have to bring for UNC to be successful.

Paige is going to look to drive too, Britt not so much. A wildcard might be Berry and a green light to dribble drive. He's a strong PG and can get to the rim, but as a freshman, I'm not sure Roy has the confidence in him yet that he can finish.

My concerns in this game are more defensively than offensively for a UNC win.

Who is gonna man up and defend Cook? He's the key guy to me that UNC has got to handle. If he goes off it could get ugly. Keep him in check and UNC can win this one.

My bet is Tokoto gets the call and gets challenged by Roy to be the defender he's capable of showing. Paige will get him some, but it's a better matchup for UNC to have him on Jones. Tokoto and Paige better shadow him all night, never leave Cook, make somebody else beat you.

Jackson's going to get Winslow and will have keep in front of him, denying the drive, which I think he can. But that's going to give Winslow some looks from deep. All UNC can hope for then is Jacksons length bothers him and he doesent have a great shooting night. They'll have to take their chances there, we can't afford to have him get to the rim.

I think we will see Meeks and James on Okafor. They are the only guys strong enough who can keep him from getting the prime low post position where he can't be stopped. You stop him before he gets the ball, not after. Meeks is going to have to show the want to to deny him that spot because Okafor will have the want to to take it.

Johnson will get Jefferson and will need to box him out, focus on rebounding, and not get sucked into trying to weak side block Okafor.

The good news for UNC is Duke has not shown a real commitment to getting it inside to Okafor if there's any sort of jump shot or dribble drive avaiable to the wings.

Personally, I'd go all Jimmy V on you guys and throw a box and one on Cook with Tokoto just for a curve at some point. That's how much I fear Cook going off.

Duke is heavily dependent on the 3 ball, shocker I know. An average or sub par shooting night and UNC can win.

Nobody beats them if they shoot over 40% for the game.

I know Wheat spent a lot of time on this and all but - I'll have what he's drinking.

Meeks will be in foul trouble in the first 10 mins.

Roy won't call any time-outs until we have a 15 point lead.

Jackson? Stopping Winslow? Man, every person who frequents this forum is laughing to themselves about that. Someone even posted high school video.

You keep mentioning Tokoto as if this means something - Mr. Anderson. lol!

Who is gonna man up and defend Cook? You got 3 options - iron foot Paige, "Can't get right" Britt, or "what am I doing here?" Berry. Good luck with that.

Nobody beats them if they shoot over 40%? Hilarious b/c in the Pitt loss UNC shot something like close to 50% and Pitt shot like 1287%. I think someone hit a Kyle Singler shot from the locker room.

[Wheat/"/"/"]

Okafor averages more postups per game than any major conference player in the past 4 years of college basketball:

http://www.si.com/sites/default/files/2015/02/05/duke.gif

Source: Luke Winn's February 5th Power Rankings (http://www.si.com/college-basketball/2015/02/05/power-rankings-kentucky-virginia-gonzaga-duke)

That's interesting...I'd have to see why he thinks a "possession" in the post looks like a "post up" before my mind could be convinced that Duke looks for him in the post to score that often, especially late in games. I just don't see it.

That Wynn article states:
"The Blue Devils don't run many plays to free up Jahlil Okafor in the post. Occasionally (such as when he was being defended by St. John's center Chris Obekpa) they'll have Amile Jefferson or a guard set a cross-screen in the lane, but most of the time, Okafor can establish position in his ideal spot -- one step off the block -- without any help."

That's what I see too, and why I think Meeks and James have to deny him the low post with strength.

I'm no stats believer, so I don't care what the stats say about 3's being a scoring % of the offense...my eyes see Duke depending on raining 3's to take control of games. Ask Virginia fans after that Duke win.

[Wheat/"/"/"]

In Duke's loss to Notre Dame, we shot 44% from three.

Only problem was ND shot better. That was an exceptional game.

[Wheat/"/"/"]

Wow. There was...a lot of Jackson in that highlight reel.

They're not in HS anymore.

I've watched Jackson a lot and he's a much better defender now than what you see in a couple of plays in a mix tape.

[Troublemaker]

That's interesting...I'd have to see why he thinks a "possession" in the post looks like a "post up" before my mind could be convinced that Duke looks for him in the post to score that often, especially late in games. I just don't see it.

Wheat, this is like when Sammy Sosa forgot how to speak English and needed a Spanish translator in front of the congressional hearing on steroids. Are you really confused by "possession" and "postup"?

Okafor averages 9 possessions a game where he receives the ball in the post (i.e. a postup). More than any major conference player of the past 4 years.

And it's not Luke Winn charting this. It's Synergy Sports, a professional company that charts and video indexes every single play of every single NCAA and NBA game each season. NBA teams and most college teams pay Synergy for access to Synergy's video database and stats. Winn, the journalist, also has access and is just relaying the information.

9 postups a game. Most in the past 4 years. Comprende, mi amigo?

[Wheat/"/"/"]

Wheat, this is like when Sammy Sosa forgot how to speak English and needed a Spanish translator in front of the congressional hearing on steroids. Are you really confused by "possession" and "postup"?

Okafor averages 9 possessions a game where he receives the ball in the post (i.e. a postup). More than any major conference player of the past 4 years.

And it's not Luke Winn charting this. It's Synergy Sports, a professional company that charts and video indexes every single play of every single NCAA and NBA game each season. NBA teams and most college teams pay Synergy for access to Synergy's video database and stats. Winn, the journalist, also has access and is just relaying the information.

9 postups a game. Most in the past 4 years. Comprende, mi amigo?

A possession in the paint is not a post up, at least by my definition. A post up to me is when a player receives the ball in the paint looking to turn and score, collapse the D, or at least make an interior pass.

There are lots of times I see the ball go into Okafor when he just looks to kick it back out. That's not a post up to me, but seems to be counted as one by that company...another situation where stats don't tell the real story.

[Wander]

A possession in the paint is not a post up, at least by my definition. A post up to me is when a player receives the ball in the paint looking to turn and score, collapse the D, or at least make an interior pass.

There are lots of times I see the ball go into Okafor when he just looks to kick it back out. That's not a post up to me, but seems to be counted as one by that company...another situation where stats don't tell the real story.

Okafor shoots more shots and free throws than any other Duke or UNC player - note that Tyler Hansbrough didn't even lead his team in shots taken the year UNC won the championship. How many times do you expect him to get the ball in a post up per game, infinity?

[gumbomoop]

Goes without saying that anything can happen, but Heels do look tired. This will be their fourth away game of their last 5. Some indications they're mentally/emotionally tired, too, though, unfortunately, I expect them to be awake Wed eve.

After the second half disaster @ UL and the loss in CH to UVa, Roy changed his starting lineup. He dropped Meeks and Tokoto to bench. I hope the lackadaisical defense v. Pitt hasn't angered Roy enough to go back to his earlier starters.

Because if he sticks with Johnson and Hicks up front, Jackson and Paige on wings, and Britt at PG, that would seem to solve Duke's concerns about height mismatches. On D we could expect:

Johnson -- Jefferson
Hicks -- Okafor
Jackson -- Winslow
Paige -- Cook
Britt -- T. Jones

And subs:

Meeks -- Okafor/Plumlee
Tokoto -- M. Jones
Berry -- Allen
James -- Plumlee

Our potential D-matchup problem occurs mostly when Jackson and Tokoto are on the floor together, as both Tyus and Quinn are rarely rested, both averaging ~37+ the last 6 games. I hope Roy continues to give big minutes to all 3 of Paige, Britt, and Berry.

I'll guess I'm not the only one a little worried about Amile's, what, mini-slump? We need big rebound numbers from him against Heels, a couple of slinky-move buckets, some FT makes. And if Heels double Oakafor with second big, Amile has to make several open layups and putbacks.

Don't see any Heel defender who can stay with the Justise Winslow of the last 6 games.

[Duvall]

A possession in the paint is not a post up, at least by my definition. A post up to me is when a player receives the ball in the paint looking to turn and score, collapse the D, or at least make an interior pass.

There are lots of times I see the ball go into Okafor when he just looks to kick it back out. That's not a post up to me, but seems to be counted as one by that company...another situation where stats don't tell the real story.

Wait, what?

[uh_no]

Duke only gets 27.7% of our points from three-pointers, a percentage that ranks 196th in the country.

Source: KenPom

It's obviously hard to back up, but a lot of that is because we're very efficient from three. when we're playing very well, we're patient for good shots, we take threes, and make some...but we don't need to depend on it, so don't. When we're playing poorly, we'll settle....in a management class they called it "satisficing"....we'll take the three because we think it'll be the turning point to get us back in the game...and when it works, you see it in the news....but in reality it's a low value shot.

Anyway, the % of points from three doesn't tell the whole story if we don't also know the % of shots taken from three....which we can obviously get. Not disagreeing with your point, and i think it's sufficient to demonstrate we're not dependent on it.

[bedeviled]

Duke is heavily dependent on the 3 ball, shocker I knowHere's some more information to the contrary. ESPN Research Notes provided in recent game recaps state
2/14/15 vs Syracuse: Duke scored 40 paint points Sunday, tied for the most Syracuse has allowed in a game in the last four seasons...Coming into the game, Syracuse allowed 23.8 paint points per game, second fewest in the ACC (Virginia - 21.1).
2/9/15 vs FSU: Duke averages 37.3 paint points per game, second most in the ACC (North Carolina - 38.3) and third most among major conference teams.
2/7/15 vs ND: Duke outscored Notre Dame 42-26 in the paint Saturday, its second most paint points in ACC play this season (44 against Virginia) and the most Notre Dame has allowed this season.
1/31/15 vs UVA: Duke scored 44 points in the paint, its most in ACC play this season and the most allowed by Virginia since March 16, 2012, when it allowed 44 in a loss to Florida.

[arnie]

I know Wheat spent a lot of time on this and all but - I'll have what he's drinking.

Meeks will be in foul trouble in the first 10 mins.

Roy won't call any time-outs until we have a 15 point lead.

Jackson? Stopping Winslow? Man, every person who frequents this forum is laughing to themselves about that. Someone even posted high school video.

You keep mentioning Tokoto as if this means something - Mr. Anderson. lol!

Who is gonna man up and defend Cook? You got 3 options - iron foot Paige, "Can't get right" Britt, or "what am I doing here?" Berry. Good luck with that.

Nobody beats them if they shoot over 40%? Hilarious b/c in the Pitt loss UNC shot something like close to 50% and Pitt shot like 1287%. I think someone hit a Kyle Singler shot from the locker room.

Got to give Wheat credit- at least he's not blaming refs for bad calls in advance; at least not yet.

[Seattle Hoo]

1/31/15 vs UVA: Duke scored 44 points in the paint, its most in ACC play this season and the most allowed by Virginia since March 16, 2012, when it allowed 44 in a loss to Florida.

Duke won that game because they hit 5 of their last 6 three pointers while Virginia couldn't buy one.

[Bob Green]

Justin Jackson is 6'8". I'd get a little nervous about Tyus (or Quinn) having to guard someone 7 inches taller. Not sure what the defensive solution is, but it's something to think about.

Your point is valid. I thought about Jackson's height advantage when I posted my proposed match-ups but someone has to guard him and with Winslow on Tokoto it has to be one of our short guards. Fortunately, Coach Williams yanks players on and off the court like a yoyo at every dead ball so any Tar Heel match-up advantage is quickly countered by Carolina themselves. :p I am partially kidding around, but only partially as Coach Williams' substitution patterns baffle me.

[David Bunkley]

The other thing I think that will be important for UNC is the dribble penetration from Justin Jackson. Again to go at Okafor, but also to take advantage of a Duke defense that likes to over play. It would be nice if Tokoto would attack the rim too, but I've lost confidence in his willingness to attack off the dribble. I don't think Winslow can stay in front of Jackson and he has a quick first step, a nice mid range game that he will have to bring for UNC to be successful.



Jackson's going to get Winslow and will have keep in front of him, denying the drive, which I think he can. But that's going to give Winslow some looks from deep. All UNC can hope for then is Jacksons length bothers him and he doesent have a great shooting night. They'll have to take their chances there, we can't afford to have him get to the rim.



Wheat, you seem fairly confident that Jackson will win the match-up (presumed) against Justise Winslow. I wonder, (1) do you think Jackson the better player and (2) what leads you to believe Winslow can't get the better of Jackson on either end? All season Winslow has gotten to the rim seemingly at will and his defense also seems to be above-average for a freshman wing.

Or am I reading too much into it and you just think that Winslow will come back down to eath after a string of 5 or so good performances?

#GODUKE

[NashvilleDevil]

Wheat, you seem fairly confident that Jackson will win the match-up (presumed) against Justise Winslow. I wonder, (1) do you think Jackson the better player and (2) what leads you to believe Winslow can't get the better of Jackson on either end? All season Winslow has gotten to the rim seemingly at will and his defense also seems to be above-average for a freshman wing.

Or am I reading too much into it and you just think that Winslow will come back down to eath after a string of 5 or so good performances?

#GODUKE

It's Wheat. He would think Serge Zwikker would get the better in a matchup with Laettner.

[wilko]

That's interesting...I'd have to see why he thinks a "possession" in the post looks like a "post up" before my mind could be convinced that Duke looks for him in the post to score that often, especially late in games. I just don't see it.

Late in games?.... you've SEEN his FT%, right?
Do you really need a better reason than that to avoid making him the exclusive late game option?

And of course Duke still looks for the 3. Spacing to keep the D honest instead of collapsing on defending the post. Oaks passing is very good for the most part.

[grad_devil]

That would be a major change from high school: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WKu6EoR1pFY

(They are both from the Houston area and have played before.)


Wow. There was...a lot of Jackson in that highlight reel.

Was there a lot of Jackson in the highlight?

I saw a number 44 in blue, but the face was obscured because Justise's first step was so fast, the guy could never stay in front of him. Repeatedly. Ad nauseum.

[David Bunkley]

It's Wheat. He would think Serge Zwikker would get the better in a matchup with Laettner.

As long as it's not dante calabria

[MChambers]

Your point is valid. I thought about Jackson's height advantage when I posted my proposed match-ups but someone has to guard him and with Winslow on Tokoto it has to be one of our short guards. Fortunately, Coach Williams yanks players on and off the court like a yoyo at every dead ball so any Tar Heel match-up advantage is quickly countered by Carolina themselves. :p I am partially kidding around, but only partially as Coach Williams' substitution patterns baffle me.
It's not like Cook will be covering Jackson in the paint. Cook will be fine. Good luck to whoever is trying to stay with Cook on the perimeter.

If having small guards was a big flaw, then the last two NCAA champions would be different.

[jv001]

I'll start with this, since it's Duke vs. Uncheaters, you never know what to expect. However we have the best big man in college basketball and that should mean something. My number one fear is foul trouble with a ref wanting to be the show instead of a great basketball game being front and center. I've seen some posts regarding matchups and I'll throw in my 2 cents. There's going to be times that one of our guards is on a much taller uncheat. When that's the case, I hope Tyus draws Paige. As for Jackson, I hope whoever guards him keeps him from driving and gives him the three point shot. He' hitting .212 from three(11/52). He shooting .466 fgp. Paige is not having an outstanding season as he's shooting .400 fgp and .375 from three. I would not give him the three. An ideal situation would be Winslow on him for parts of the game. That's as long as Justise has his head in the game on defense. As I watched the Syracuse game again, there were times he got caught standing and lost his man. Britt for the cheaters shoots .391 fgp and .396 from three. I see Tyus on him when he's in the game. I hope to see a good game where we win 82-50. That's a good game in my opinion. :cool: But I'm expecting a close game. GoDuke!

[MChambers]

As long as it's not dante calabria
If UNC just had Bersticker to match up with Okafor, Duke wouldn't have a chance.

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

There are many defensive priorities for us but the absolute most important is that we get back quickly and not allow easy transition buckets. Force them into a half court game and we will do ourselves a world of good.

[David Bunkley]

There are many defensive priorities for us but the absolute most important is that we get back quickly and not allow easy transition buckets. Force them into a half court game and we will do ourselves a world of good.

While this team hasn't been able to run quite like Huck would like, we don't need to do them any favors by being lazy.

#GODUKE

[CDu]

Duke won that game because they hit 5 of their last 6 three pointers while Virginia couldn't buy one.

I disagree. I would say that the only reason UVa led that game was because Duke couldn't buy a 3 for the first 30 minutes. We got hot down the stretch, but shot below our average for the game.

[CDu]

I am guessing Wheat hasn't caught too many of our games this year, because his analysis of our team seems like a scouting report from previous seasons. This team is the least reliant on 3s that we have been in probably over a decade, and we go to Okafor in the post more than any other major conference team goes to a player in the post.

Also, while Cook is having a fabulous year, he is hardly the only guy that should frighten UNC. I would LOVE to see UNC go box and one on Cook: we would hammer UNC with Okafor in the post, Tyus Jones from the perimeter, and especially Winslow all over the court. UNC will certainly want to cover Cook, but they will have their hands full with Okafor, Tyus Jones, and Winslow too.

Should be a fun game. If Okafor stays out of foul trouble, I don't see UNC winning this one barring a miraculous shooting display. But if Okafor does get foul trouble, then we will certainly get reliant on the jumpshot, because he is our only post presence on offense.

UNC is pretty predictable on offense. The major keys for Duke defensively will be four-fold:
1. Get back in transition
2. Cover Paige
3. Identify and defend the weakside high screen/lob play
4. Box out

If you can make UNC a half-court team and limit their second-chance points, they are somewhat pedestrian offensively. That is easier said than done (especially the rebounding part), but that is the key.

Aside from that, depending upon the player guarding him, either Tokoto or Jackson will have a big size advantage. We will need our guards to step up and make sure that player doesn't play over the top of them.

In the post, Johnson is the scary scorer. He has a jump hook that is hard to defend. UNC doesn't feed him enough, in my opinion. Meeks is also a very capable scorer around the rim and on the 15 footer. The key will be to punish those guys on the other end, because the dropoff in offensive skill from those two to James and Hicks in large.

On our offense, I don't know that UNC has the players to take us out of what we want to do. Meeks has the size to bang with Okafor, but not the quicks and probably not the endurance. And James REALLY lacks the quicks. Johnson will be fine when Jefferson is in, but can he defend Winslow when we go small? Based on what we saw of his play against Connaughton, I think not.

A critical matchup will be Paige on Tyus Jones. Paige is a good defender, but can he handle Jones when/if Jones decides to take over?

I would guess that Tokoto guards Cook when we go with Jefferson, and I think that is a good matchup. But that leaves Jackson on Winslow, and I think that is a big edge for us. Basically, whether we go big or small, Winslow is a matchup problem for UNC unless they put Tokoto on him. If they go with Tokoto on Winslow, then we have a decided edge with Cook.

Ultimately, though, I think it will come down to how well UNC guards our three freshmen and how well we address the four defensive keys above.

[jacone21]

As long as it's not dante calabria

<Dickie V> Oooohhhhhhh! That hair! Are you serious? That hair! I wish I had that hair! </Dickie V>

[Billy Dat]

Reading Wheat's pre-game breakdown, and everyone's rebuttals, I find it comforting that Duke seems to be the least predictable on both sides of the ball than it had been in years. I searched a bit for some advanced stats to back me up, aside from those already provided in this thread, but I am not well versed in all the various sources. What I wanted to find are stats that back up the following observations:

-Our defense is as varied as it has ever been. I don't think I need stats to back this up because, until this year, I have never seen Duke play zone for more than a possession or two. Teams now have to prepare to face several different man and zone looks.

-We are playing through the post more than we have in recent memory.

-Our guards and wings are just as likely to drive as shoot 3s.

-While these line-ups haven't played a ton, we have shown an ability to go big with Jah and Marshall and small with neither on the floor. By the way, where does one get 5-man-line-up +/- info, we used to discuss that kind of stat much more on the boards? I'd think the starters would have the best +/- but it would be cool to see which other line-ups have done well.

Cook, T & M Jones and Winslow are all capable of knocking down 3s, taking it to the hole, and getting out in transition. I am not saying they are all great at it, but they'll shoot 3s without hesitation which means the defense has to pay some attention or else give up wide open shots. It also means that we can win on nights when we aren't shooting well, because we can score in transition and obviously go to the million-dollar-man in the middle.

All that is to say that I think it's harder to prepare for Duke than it has been in years past because of the variety of looks we show on offense and defense. Luckily for the Heels, as Wheat points out, Roy is a master Xs and Os guy and he'll have them ready for battle.

[NYBri]

All that is to say that I think it's harder to prepare for Duke than it has been in years past because of the variety of looks we show on offense and defense. Luckily for the Heels, as Wheat points out, Roy is a master Xs and Os guy and he'll have them ready for battle.

I agree with this and it's amazing how things change. Remember after the Miami game word was that the way to beat Duke was clear because they were so predictable? Drive and dish.

I thought K was too stubborn to make that fix, but that's why I'm posting on a fan board and he is the winningest coach in Div. 1 MBB.

[gumbomoop]

I thought about Jackson's height advantage when I posted my proposed match-ups but someone has to guard him and with Winslow on Tokoto it has to be one of our short guards. Fortunately, Coach Williams yanks players on and off the court like a yoyo at every dead ball so any Tar Heel match-up advantage is quickly countered by Carolina themselves.


.... depending upon the player guarding him, either Tokoto or Jackson will have a big size advantage. We will need our guards to step up and make sure that player doesn't play over the top of them.

I would expect some cat-and-mouse game-within-game, especially from Roy seeking the height advantage when Tokoto plays SG. But now that Berry is healthy, and Tokoto not playing well, Heels will have 2 small guards on floor for substantial minutes.

We should expect to see Tyus and Quinn play 36-40 each. If Roy plays Paige, Britt, and Berry a total of 70+, the Duke (Quinn) height disadvantage v. Tokoto will not frequently be in play. It will only be in play for significant minutes if Roy plays Tokoto at SG for ~30 minutes. And when Quinn guards Tokoto, Quinn's quick D-hands may bother Tokoto's very undependable handle.

I wouldn't be surprised to see, at some point in the game, Matt joining Quinn and Tyus for a few minutes of perimeter small ball, which Roy could conceivably take advantage of by playing Tokoto and Jackson on the wings with one of their small guards at PG. But I would be surprised to see such opposing lineups for major stretches.

The way Winslow has been playing, Roy has to be concerned about who guards him at least as much as Krzyzewski has to worry about Quinn on Tokoto.

[PackMan97]

Words can not describe how much I want you guys to beat the Cheats. Win it and you will have my thanks and appreciation until you play Carolina again. That said, blow this one and I'll have nothing but bad things to say about Duke until your next chance for redemption!

Translation: Duke's emotional usefulness to this Pack fan is a result of your ability to beat the snot out of Carolina.

[OldPhiKap]

Words can not describe how much I want you guys to beat the Cheats. Win it and you will have my thanks and appreciation until you play Carolina again. That said, blow this one and I'll have nothing but bad things to say about Duke until your next chance for redemption!

Translation: Duke's emotional usefulness to this Pack fan is a result of your ability to beat the snot out of Carolina.

Gotta love Triangle basketball!

[Troublemaker]

A possession in the paint is not a post up, at least by my definition. A post up to me is when a player receives the ball in the paint looking to turn and score, collapse the D, or at least make an interior pass.

There are lots of times I see the ball go into Okafor when he just looks to kick it back out. That's not a post up to me, but seems to be counted as one by that company...another situation where stats don't tell the real story.


Wait, what?

Don't you understand, Duvall? The way Wheat sees it, Okafor passes out of the post for no reason at all, and those possessions should not count as postups. I mean, that happens ALL the time with Okafor -- just mindlessly passing out of the post for no reason whatsoever -- to which Wheat can attest. Also, the way Wheat sees it, the postups where Okafor gets the ball and then dribbles out past the 3-pt line to shoot turnaround threes should also not count as postups. And Okafor shoots turnaround threes ALL the time, as Wheat can attest. Don't live and die with your turnaround three, big man. The way Wheat sees it. Also, any postup where Jah receives the entry pass and doesn't point to the passer? Not a postup, the way Wheat sees it. For this upcoming game, if Jah receives the ball in the post and doesn't immediately bow to Nate Britt? Not a postup. The way Wheat sees it.

[Seattle Hoo]

Beating UNC is easy:

1) Don't let them get transition buckets (including secondary break)
2) Keep them off the offensive glass
3) Execute on offense.

The only way Carolina is going to win a halfcourt game against a team that runs an efficient halfcourt offense is to dominate the offensive boards. They don't run a decent halfcourt offense. Their defense is better, but it will break down if you are patient against it.

[mgtr]

Beating UNC is easy:

1) Don't let them get transition buckets (including secondary break)
2) Keep them off the offensive glass
3) Execute on offense.

The only way Carolina is going to win a halfcourt game against a team that runs an efficient halfcourt offense is to dominate the offensive boards. They don't run a decent halfcourt offense. Their defense is better, but it will break down if you are patient against it.

Minor quibble: The plan to beat UNC is easy to figure, the execution of those items is not easy.

[SoCalDukeFan]

Its Duke - Carolina.

Anything can happen.

I just hope when the game is over we are posting about the players and the play and not the refs.

Beat the uncheaters.

Dick

[Troublemaker]

Wow. There was...a lot of Jackson in that highlight reel.


Was there a lot of Jackson in the highlight?

I saw a number 44 in blue, but the face was obscured because Justise's first step was so fast, the guy could never stay in front of him. Repeatedly. Ad nauseum.

grad_devil, the blurring problem is common when Justise's peers try to guard him. Let's see what happens when Jackson goes against an incoming freshman instead: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j2u0x4lfrS4

Can we find Waldo?

[sagegrouse]

grad_devil, the blurring problem is common when Justise's peers try to guard him. Let's see what happens when Jackson goes against an incoming freshman instead: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j2u0x4lfrS4

Can we find Waldo?

There was also the implication that Justise would have trouble guarding Justin Jackson. Mebbe.... I've been wrong before, but when he eventually enters the NBA, Justise is likely to be regularly assigned to guard LeBron. Muscle, speed and quickness are important in defense.

[grad_devil]

grad_devil, the blurring problem is common when Justise's peers try to guard him. Let's see what happens when Jackson goes against an incoming freshman instead: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j2u0x4lfrS4

Can we find Waldo?

Ahh...that helps a lot. Jackson is the guy that takes the ball out of bounds when it goes through the net after Kennard beats him off the dribble.

Thanks, Troublemaker!

[bbosbbos]

K does not like to zone. But zone D is good to beat this cheater team, especially this year.

[Troublemaker]

K does not like to zone. But zone D is good to beat this cheater team, especially this year.

When Syracuse zoned UNC, the Heels scored 93 points (117 offensive efficiency). Paige and Britt went off from three, and the Heels gathered in 39% of their missed shots.

[oldnavy]

Some things never go away... for example, we have the premiere BIG in the nation, who hasn't scored below double figures ALL YEAR, who will be the #1 Player taken in the NBA draft, and who is obviously (for anyone paying attention) THE FOCUS of our team, and the UNC faithful talk about how perimeter oriented and dependent on the 3 ball we are.... What???

PLEASE, PUUULEEEEESSSEE play a box in one on Quinn Cook !!!! If Roy does this, there CBB HOF may have a recall vote....

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

K does not like to zone. But zone D is good to beat this cheater team, especially this year.
I imagine we will see it a little bit but I'd be surprised to see it used extensively. We are pretty poor at defensive rebounding while playing zone and we cannot afford to give them lots of second chances (which they will likely have from missing so many shots). I'm guessing K goes a lot of man to man and use matchups to force guys like Tokoto to beat us. That's what he did with guys like Kendall Marshall in the past... neutralize the playmaker(s) and make the others beat you in ways they are not accustomed to doing.

[Kfanarmy]

I've watched very little UNC this year and only care about this game as it impacts Dukes ACC standings and national rankings. Don't care how good a cheating program, with a "know everything about my program except for all the institutionalized cheating" coach, is. I just hope they lose every game until all those who were responsible including the coach are gone.

[Troublemaker]

Ahh...that helps a lot. Jackson is the guy that takes the ball out of bounds when it goes through the net after Kennard beats him off the dribble.

Thanks, Troublemaker!

My pleasure grad_devil. My favorite part of the video was actually Calipari's poop-eating grin. "Can't wait to get this kid Kennard on campus his freshman year. Thank you, southern Ohio counties, for being UK fans and gifting me this stud."

[NSDukeFan]

...

I'm no stats believer, so I don't care what the stats say about 3's being a scoring % of the offense...my eyes see Duke depending on raining 3's to take control of games. Ask Virginia fans after that Duke win.
I really like hearing from many of the posters on this board from other fanbases (missed some of the other UNC posters this year, ClosetHurleyFan and someone else was usually good, I believe.) I also appreciate that Wheat has ventured to this board as a fan of rival UNC many times, win or lose. Unfortunately, this thread has not shown his best analysis. I am going to go with what the numbers say over Wheat's eye test on how often Duke scores via 3 pointer.

They're not in HS anymore.

I've watched Jackson a lot and he's a much better defender now than what you see in a couple of plays in a mix tape.
You'd better hope so. I hope not.

A possession in the paint is not a post up, at least by my definition. A post up to me is when a player receives the ball in the paint looking to turn and score, collapse the D, or at least make an interior pass.

There are lots of times I see the ball go into Okafor when he just looks to kick it back out. That's not a post up to me, but seems to be counted as one by that company...another situation where stats don't tell the real story.
Stats may not always tell the real story, but they do certainly show that Okafor gets the ball a ton in the post. Since he has scored about 1% of his points outside the paint or free throw line and is one of the top scorers in the ACC and an All-American candidate based on his post play, I think he appears to be getting the ball quite a bit in the post. He has certainly passed out quite a bit on double teams, but I would love for UNC to guard him with the expectation that he is going to pass the ball back out looking for 3 point shooters.

Okafor shoots more shots and free throws than any other Duke or UNC player - note that Tyler Hansbrough didn't even lead his team in shots taken the year UNC won the championship. How many times do you expect him to get the ball in a post up per game, infinity?
I would love for Okafor to get the ball in the post infinity times.

Here's some more information to the contrary. ESPN Research Notes provided in recent game recaps state
2/14/15 vs Syracuse: Duke scored 40 paint points Sunday, tied for the most Syracuse has allowed in a game in the last four seasons...Coming into the game, Syracuse allowed 23.8 paint points per game, second fewest in the ACC (Virginia - 21.1).
2/9/15 vs FSU: Duke averages 37.3 paint points per game, second most in the ACC (North Carolina - 38.3) and third most among major conference teams.
2/7/15 vs ND: Duke outscored Notre Dame 42-26 in the paint Saturday, its second most paint points in ACC play this season (44 against Virginia) and the most Notre Dame has allowed this season.
1/31/15 vs UVA: Duke scored 44 points in the paint, its most in ACC play this season and the most allowed by Virginia since March 16, 2012, when it allowed 44 in a loss to Florida.
There you go with those stats and numbers. Where's your eye test stats and numbers?

I am guessing Wheat hasn't caught too many of our games this year, because his analysis of our team seems like a scouting report from previous seasons. This team is the least reliant on 3s that we have been in probably over a decade, and we go to Okafor in the post more than any other major conference team goes to a player in the post.

Also, while Cook is having a fabulous year, he is hardly the only guy that should frighten UNC. I would LOVE to see UNC go box and one on Cook: we would hammer UNC with Okafor in the post, Tyus Jones from the perimeter, and especially Winslow all over the court. UNC will certainly want to cover Cook, but they will have their hands full with Okafor, Tyus Jones, and Winslow too.

Should be a fun game. If Okafor stays out of foul trouble, I don't see UNC winning this one barring a miraculous shooting display. But if Okafor does get foul trouble, then we will certainly get reliant on the jumpshot, because he is our only post presence on offense.

UNC is pretty predictable on offense. The major keys for Duke defensively will be four-fold:
1. Get back in transition
2. Cover Paige
3. Identify and defend the weakside high screen/lob play
4. Box out

If you can make UNC a half-court team and limit their second-chance points, they are somewhat pedestrian offensively. That is easier said than done (especially the rebounding part), but that is the key.

Aside from that, depending upon the player guarding him, either Tokoto or Jackson will have a big size advantage. We will need our guards to step up and make sure that player doesn't play over the top of them.

In the post, Johnson is the scary scorer. He has a jump hook that is hard to defend. UNC doesn't feed him enough, in my opinion. Meeks is also a very capable scorer around the rim and on the 15 footer. The key will be to punish those guys on the other end, because the dropoff in offensive skill from those two to James and Hicks in large.

On our offense, I don't know that UNC has the players to take us out of what we want to do. Meeks has the size to bang with Okafor, but not the quicks and probably not the endurance. And James REALLY lacks the quicks. Johnson will be fine when Jefferson is in, but can he defend Winslow when we go small? Based on what we saw of his play against Connaughton, I think not.

A critical matchup will be Paige on Tyus Jones. Paige is a good defender, but can he handle Jones when/if Jones decides to take over?

I would guess that Tokoto guards Cook when we go with Jefferson, and I think that is a good matchup. But that leaves Jackson on Winslow, and I think that is a big edge for us. Basically, whether we go big or small, Winslow is a matchup problem for UNC unless they put Tokoto on him. If they go with Tokoto on Winslow, then we have a decided edge with Cook.

Ultimately, though, I think it will come down to how well UNC guards our three freshmen and how well we address the four defensive keys above.
Nice analysis. I am worried about your number 4, as much as all but #1. One other issue with UNC's big wings is the potential to give up offensive rebounds to them.

Reading Wheat's pre-game breakdown, and everyone's rebuttals, I find it comforting that Duke seems to be the least predictable on both sides of the ball than it had been in years. I searched a bit for some advanced stats to back me up, aside from those already provided in this thread, but I am not well versed in all the various sources. What I wanted to find are stats that back up the following observations:

-Our defense is as varied as it has ever been. I don't think I need stats to back this up because, until this year, I have never seen Duke play zone for more than a possession or two. Teams now have to prepare to face several different man and zone looks.

-We are playing through the post more than we have in recent memory.

-Our guards and wings are just as likely to drive as shoot 3s.

-While these line-ups haven't played a ton, we have shown an ability to go big with Jah and Marshall and small with neither on the floor. By the way, where does one get 5-man-line-up +/- info, we used to discuss that kind of stat much more on the boards? I'd think the starters would have the best +/- but it would be cool to see which other line-ups have done well.

Cook, T & M Jones and Winslow are all capable of knocking down 3s, taking it to the hole, and getting out in transition. I am not saying they are all great at it, but they'll shoot 3s without hesitation which means the defense has to pay some attention or else give up wide open shots. It also means that we can win on nights when we aren't shooting well, because we can score in transition and obviously go to the million-dollar-man in the middle.

All that is to say that I think it's harder to prepare for Duke than it has been in years past because of the variety of looks we show on offense and defense. Luckily for the Heels, as Wheat points out, Roy is a master Xs and Os guy and he'll have them ready for battle.

I think the team's defense if varied more based on how focused and energized the team is more so than what type of defense the team is in. When Duke has been locked in so far this year defensively, it has been a thing of beauty and Duke can compete with anyone, even on the road. Perhaps in part because so much of the team's success depends on the contributions of freshmen, the team hasn't always had that same focus defensively. If they bring that Wednesday, look out for a fun game. If not...

I agree that Roy is an excellent coach and agree with Wheat that more preparation x and o wise happens in practise than in game adjustments. Compared to the elite coaches, my impression, in part from reading this board, is that Roy is not as great making in-game changes.

[jv001]

Don't you understand, Duvall? The way Wheat sees it, Okafor passes out of the post for no reason at all, and those possessions should not count as postups. I mean, that happens ALL the time with Okafor -- just mindlessly passing out of the post for no reason whatsoever -- to which Wheat can attest. Also, the way Wheat sees it, the postups where Okafor gets the ball and then dribbles out past the 3-pt line to shoot turnaround threes should also not count as postups. And Okafor shoots turnaround threes ALL the time, as Wheat can attest. Don't live and die with your turnaround three, big man. The way Wheat sees it. Also, any postup where Jah receives the entry pass and doesn't point to the passer? Not a postup, the way Wheat sees it. For this upcoming game, if Jah receives the ball in the post and doesn't immediately bow to Nate Britt? Not a postup. The way Wheat sees it.

Great post! Our uncheater friend, Wheat sees things with ugly blue glasses on. If Jahlil had been the beneficiary of a whistle every time he's been hacked, punched, over the backed, he would foul out most opponents that's tried to guard him. If he had been given the calls that hanstravel received, he would be getting raves the cheater got while in college. Like I said, great post. GoDuke!

[oldnavy]

I imagine we will see it a little bit but I'd be surprised to see it used extensively. We are pretty poor at defensive rebounding while playing zone and we cannot afford to give them lots of second chances (which they will likely have from missing so many shots). I'm guessing K goes a lot of man to man and use matchups to force guys like Tokoto to beat us. That's what he did with guys like Kendall Marshall in the past... neutralize the playmaker(s) and make the others beat you in ways they are not accustomed to doing.

I expect that we play mostly MTM. UNC guards aren't the lightning fast blow by you type (Rodriquez @ Miami) that typically KILL us...

I imagine we will use some zone just to mix them up, but I doubt it will be our prominent defense in this game.

[jv001]

Reading Wheat's pre-game breakdown, and everyone's rebuttals, I find it comforting that Duke seems to be the least predictable on both sides of the ball than it had been in years. I searched a bit for some advanced stats to back me up, aside from those already provided in this thread, but I am not well versed in all the various sources. What I wanted to find are stats that back up the following observations:

-Our defense is as varied as it has ever been. I don't think I need stats to back this up because, until this year, I have never seen Duke play zone for more than a possession or two. Teams now have to prepare to face several different man and zone looks.

-We are playing through the post more than we have in recent memory.

-Our guards and wings are just as likely to drive as shoot 3s.

-While these line-ups haven't played a ton, we have shown an ability to go big with Jah and Marshall and small with neither on the floor. By the way, where does one get 5-man-line-up +/- info, we used to discuss that kind of stat much more on the boards? I'd think the starters would have the best +/- but it would be cool to see which other line-ups have done well.
Cook, T & M Jones and Winslow are all capable of knocking down 3s, taking it to the hole, and getting out in transition. I am not saying they are all great at it, but they'll shoot 3s without hesitation which means the defense has to pay some attention or else give up wide open shots. It also means that we can win on nights when we aren't shooting well, because we can score in transition and obviously go to the million-dollar-man in the middle.

All that is to say that I think it's harder to prepare for Duke than it has been in years past because of the variety of looks we show on offense and defense. Luckily for the Heels, as Wheat points out, Roy is a master Xs and Os guy and he'll have them ready for battle.

See Neals +/- thread at the top of message board/Forum. It gives plenty of the information you inquired about. Thanks, Neal for putting it together. GoDuke!

[Lunchab1es]

You never know what to really expect in this game, and with all the freshmen who are gonna get prime time play on both sides...who the heck knows how anybody is going to react?

Who is gonna man up and defend Cook? He's the key guy to me that UNC has got to handle. If he goes off it could get ugly. Keep him in check and UNC can win this one.

Personally, I'd go all Jimmy V on you guys and throw a box and one on Cook with Tokoto just for a curve at some point. That's how much I fear Cook going off.


Agree with the first statement. Personally I'm happy that our freshmen get to experience the rivalry at home first. I think we've faced enough hyped-up student sections on the road to be prepared for the away game when it comes, but I like getting our feet wet in the rivalry at Cameron. I think overall Duke has the advantage and will win this one by ~8 points.

As for your statements re: Cook going off. Honestly, I would just count on Cook scoring 17+ points. He's the senior, the heart and leader of this team; he's going to bring his "A" game. I would also count on Jah to get his usual 10+ points. It's Justise and the Joneses that I would be more concerned about as far as "X Factors" - all of them have the potential to have monster nights, while Jah and Cook tend to be more consistent with their output (gut feeling here, not looking at any stats at the moment). If one of those younger guys has a big game, that's when things could get ugly, or at least be a real difference maker.

[fisheyes]

Looks like we can keep the volume on for this one. For the first time since 1979 the Duke-UNC game will be without Vitale. Bilas and Shulman calling the game as a duo.
Per George Halim USA Today sports.

[devildeac]

Words can not describe how much I want you guys to beat the Cheats. Win it and you will have my thanks and appreciation until you play Carolina again. That said, blow this one and I'll have nothing but bad things to say about Duke until your next chance for redemption!

Translation: Duke's emotional usefulness to this Pack fan is a result of your ability to beat the snot out of Carolina.


Gotta love Triangle basketball!

The enemy of my enemy is my friend.

[Kedsy]

Its Duke - Carolina.

Anything can happen.

A few historical facts about Duke/UNC, if anyone is interested in such things:

In Coach K's time at Duke, when Duke has played UNC...

...if one of the teams was top 5 and the other wasn't, the top 5 team's record is 28-7 (.800 winning pct).

...if one of the teams was top 5 and the other was ranked but outside the top 10, the top 5's team record is 14-5 (.737 w%).

...if both teams are ranked, the higher ranked team's record is 31-22 (.585 w%).


Anything can happen in almost any basketball game, whether or not a rivalry is involved.

[wilko]

Translation: Duke's emotional usefulness to this Pack fan is a result of your ability to beat the snot out of Carolina.

I fully understand and respect the sentiment.
We've been waiting for some time for you guys to join the party and strike a few blows to the heart for us as well.

[CDu]

A few historical facts about Duke/UNC, if anyone is interested in such things:

In Coach K's time at Duke, when Duke has played UNC...

...if one of the teams was top 5 and the other wasn't, the top 5 team's record is 28-7 (.800 winning pct).

...if one of the teams was top 5 and the other was ranked but outside the top 10, the top 5's team record is 14-5 (.737 w%).

...if both teams are ranked, the higher ranked team's record is 31-22 (.585 w%).


Anything can happen in almost any basketball game, whether or not a rivalry is involved.

Good numbers. I wonder if the home court advantage shifts those numbers even more. In other words, how do the numbers look when the home team is the higher-ranked, when the home team is the top-5 team, etc? (I'm not asking you to do this, by the way; just adding to your thought).

[OldPhiKap]

Good numbers. I wonder if the home court advantage shifts those numbers even more. In other words, how do the numbers look when the home team is the higher-ranked, when the home team is the top-5 team, etc? (I'm not asking you to do this, by the way; just adding to your thought).

Don't know the breakdown, but since Roy came back to UNC, Duke is 6-5 at home and 6-5 in CHell. I'm guessing we've been ranked higher for more of those meetings than not but could be wrong.

[jacone21]

I've watched very little UNC this year and only care about this game as it impacts Dukes ACC standings and national rankings. Don't care how good a cheating program, with a "know everything about my program except for all the institutionalized cheating" coach, is. I just hope they lose every game until all those who were responsible including the coach are gone.

So what you're saying is... Go to Hell, Carolina?

[Kedsy]

Good numbers. I wonder if the home court advantage shifts those numbers even more. In other words, how do the numbers look when the home team is the higher-ranked, when the home team is the top-5 team, etc? (I'm not asking you to do this, by the way; just adding to your thought).

OK, first, I made a couple of mistakes. Here's the corrected version:

In Coach K's time at Duke, when Duke has played UNC...

...if one of the teams was top 5 and the other was outside the top 10, the top 5 team's record is 27-7 (.794 winning pct).

...if one of the teams was top 5 and the other was ranked but outside the top 10, the top 5's team record is 13-5 (.722 w%).

...if both teams are ranked, the higher ranked team's record is 31-22 (.585 w%).

(the first bolded part is a corrected explanation of the stat and the second and third bolded parts are because I inadvertently counted a game when the losing team was ranked 10th as "outside the top 10."

--------------------------------------------------------

To answer your question, though:

Top 5 vs. outside top 10:

Home: 14-3
Road: 10-3
Neutral: 3-1

Top 5 vs. ranked but outside top 10:

Home: 6-2
Road: 5-2
Neutral: 2-1

I didn't go through the "both teams are ranked" list (and don't plan to at this point), but looking at the above it doesn't seem that home/road/neutral matters so much in this series.

[CDu]

OK, first, I made a couple of mistakes. Here's the corrected version:

In Coach K's time at Duke, when Duke has played UNC...

...if one of the teams was top 5 and the other was outside the top 10, the top 5 team's record is 27-7 (.794 winning pct).

...if one of the teams was top 5 and the other was ranked but outside the top 10, the top 5's team record is 13-5 (.722 w%).

...if both teams are ranked, the higher ranked team's record is 31-22 (.585 w%).

(the first bolded part is a corrected explanation of the stat and the second and third bolded parts are because I inadvertently counted a game when the losing team was ranked 10th as "outside the top 10."

--------------------------------------------------------

To answer your question, though:

Top 5 vs. outside top 10:

Home: 14-3
Road: 10-3
Neutral: 3-1

Top 5 vs. ranked but outside top 10:

Home: 6-2
Road: 5-2
Neutral: 2-1

I didn't go through the "both teams are ranked" list (and don't plan to at this point), but looking at the above it doesn't seem that home/road/neutral matters so much in this series.

Thanks for running the numbers. It does look like things are a little better for the top-5 team when they are at home, though certainly not a ton better (and not significantly so).

[Lar77]

Don't know the breakdown, but since Roy came back to UNC, Duke is 6-5 at home and 6-5 in CHell. I'm guessing we've been ranked higher for more of those meetings than not but could be wrong.

Limiting it to Cameron games only during the K-Roy years, it's 6-5; 4-5 when both teams are ranked. Duke is 5-2 when higher ranked (3-2 when higher of the 2 ranked). Excluding the 32 point blow out, our wins have been with an average margin of 5.8.

We need to play hard and play smart for the full 40 (unless we replay 2010 again)

[sagegrouse]

Limiting it to Cameron games only during the K-Roy years, it's 6-5; 4-5 when both teams are ranked. Duke is 5-2 when higher ranked (3-2 when higher of the 2 ranked). Excluding the 32 point blow out, our wins have been with an average margin of 5.8.

We need to play hard and play smart for the full 40 (unless we replay 2010 again)

Uhhh..... Isn't it 6-1 when Hansbrough is not playing?

Kindly, Sage
'But I believe Duke was 2-2 at Chapel Hill when the "Travelling Man" was on the floor'

[77devil]

Limiting it to Cameron games only during the K-Roy years, it's 6-5; 4-5 when both teams are ranked. Duke is 5-2 when higher ranked (3-2 when higher of the 2 ranked). Excluding the 32 point blow out, our wins have been with an average margin of 5.8.

We need to play hard and play smart for the full 40 (unless we replay 2010 again)

My recollection is the UNCheaters won 4 of their 5 from 06 to 09 during the Hanswalk years and Duke won the first two. So that means Duke has won 4 of the last 5 in CIS. I prefer the recent trend.

Edit: Looks like Sage beat me to it.

[CDu]

Uhhh..... Isn't it 6-1 when Hansbrough is not playing?

Kindly, Sage
'But I believe Duke was 2-2 at Chapel Hill when the "Travelling Man" was on the floor'

Yeah, the results for UNC @ Duke under Roy are quite skewed by the Hansbrough (and perhaps more importantly Lawson) years. We lost every game that Lawson played against Duke (both home and away), which corresponded with 3 our 4 home losses to UNC in Hansbrough's 4 years. And of course UNC upset us in Hansbrough's (and Green's) freshman year on Senior Night for Redick and Williams (and Dockery and Melchionni).

[Wheat/"/"/"]

Wheat, you seem fairly confident that Jackson will win the match-up (presumed) against Justise Winslow. I wonder, (1) do you think Jackson the better player and (2) what leads you to believe Winslow can't get the better of Jackson on either end? All season Winslow has gotten to the rim seemingly at will and his defense also seems to be above-average for a freshman wing.

Or am I reading too much into it and you just think that Winslow will come back down to eath after a string of 5 or so good performances?

#GODUKE

I'm not at all confident that Jackson can win that matchup. But my point was he's got to play a step back from Winslow and stay in front of him, trying to deny his attacks at the rim, which would really hurt UNC.
I think he can do that, but playing a step back is going to give Winslow better looks at the basket with his jumper. I think UNC has to take that chance of him shooting it well, other than letting him get to the rim, which will cause chaos inside and likely result in UNC foul trouble...this UNC team hates contact and reaches a lot...refs love to call the reach in's...

Winslow is a very tough match up for UNC, I have plenty of respect for his game.

BTW, I just got in and there's no way I can comment to every post, and I will just ignore those of you who just want to troll me and not offer some thought on how you think the game will play out.

And I'm certainly not denying the quality of Okafor's play. He's a stud down. And he posts up strongly, a lot. I don't think you'll see UNC double him, like most teams do. Meeks has the size to defend him straight up and will have to play smart to avoid foul trouble. And it's my opinion James will see a fair amount of time on him too. I see more value in James than you guys do, that's no surprise. I'm well aware of his limitations, but also aware of what he can bring to the team effort...buy some quality rest time for Meeks and use his size and strength defensively on Okafor. James will hustle. And he can get deep post position in the half court and at least force Okafor to defend him. It won't surprise me if UNC makes a real effort to get the ball into James low during his minutes and challenge Okafor.

Okafor's gonna get his...he's that good...UNC has got to stop the 3 ball from Cook especially, but Jones and Winslow too. At the end of the game, I don't want to be beat by the 3, I'd make Duke beat me man to man at the rim.

What I've noticed about Duke is that when games get tight, Duke will revert to a jump shooting team and rely on Okafor, Jefferson and Winslow to crash the boards. They won't go deep into the possession clock working to set a screen for Okafor down low in a tight game. If he doesn't get position on his own down low, which can be tough, Duke is firing it up from deep.

Certainly nothing wrong with that, it's coach K's style, and you can't argue with success.

I would play to try and deny the 3 all the way late in a close game.

[Lar77]

So putting this all together, Hansbrough and Lawson are not in the building and given the current players, we've done well.

On paper we should win this game, especially if we block out when on defense and stay after Paige. But, as many have said, this game is rarely about what's on paper.

I'm ready to see Amile be strong again. I think that whack in the FSU game was still bothering him last Saturday.

Is there an over/under on how many times JP Tokoto is called "athletic" on the ESPN broadcast, regardless of what he does?

[wilko]

And I'm certainly not denying the quality of Okafor's play. He's a stud down. And he posts up strongly, a lot. Okafor's gonna get his...he's that good...UNC has got to stop the 3 ball from Cook especially, but Jones and Winslow too. At the end of the game, I don't want to be beat by the 3, I'd make Duke beat me man to man at the rim.
Just when I thought it was impossible for you to give Dukes post game any praise, you go and do this....
Totally takes away my plucky snark.




What I've noticed about Duke is that when games get tight, Duke will revert to a jump shooting team and rely on Okafor, Jefferson and Winslow to crash the boards. They won't go deep into the possession clock working to set a screen for Okafor down low in a tight game. If he doesn't get position on his own down low, which can be tough, Duke is firing it up from deep.

They also drive a good bit.
Winslow, TJones or Cook will make key drives in a tight game.
If Amile and Jah shot a FT% in the 70% range - I think you'd see them pound more late. But what you regard as a weakness - I think its good strategy to to keep the ball in the hands of the better FT shooters.

[uh_no]

I just hope when the game is over we are posting about the players and the play and not the refs.


we're 0-25 on that count this year :)

[CDu]

Just when I thought it was impossible for you to give Dukes post game any praise, you go and do this....
Totally takes away my plucky snark.




They also drive a good bit.
Winslow, TJones or Cook will make key drives in a tight game.
If Amile and Jah shot a FT% in the 70% range - I think you'd see them pound more late. But what you regard as a weakness - I think its good strategy to to keep the ball in the hands of the better FT shooters.

Agreed. I mean, aside from Cook (who looks to drive the least of the three main perimeter guys), I'd argue that our guys are still more likely to drive than to shoot 3s at any point in the game. Winslow and Tyus Jones make MANY drives into the lane, in close games especially. If anything, I'd say we're more likely to settle for 3s when we're cruising than when we're in a tight game.

But as you note, Okafor is a terrible free throw shooter. So if it is tight late, we're less likely to go to him because he doesn't make free throws. Late in the game, the ball tends to find its way into the hands of Cook and Tyus Jones, either of whom are more than willing to drive it to the hoop.

[ChillinDuke]

...

UNC is pretty predictable on offense. The major keys for Duke defensively will be four-fold:
1. Get back in transition
2. Cover Paige
3. Identify and defend the weakside high screen/lob play
4. Box out

If you can make UNC a half-court team and limit their second-chance points, they are somewhat pedestrian offensively. That is easier said than done (especially the rebounding part), but that is the key.

Nice post CDu. I completely agree with #1 and #3 in bold. Whether it's valid or not, I seem to always see UNC using a quintessential style of play: (1) the fast break (primary/secondary) and (2) a two-big game involving the weak-side with screens and slashers for lobs and layups/dunks. My (1) and (2) coincide with your #1 and #3.

Again, maybe I'm guilty of not perceiving some of the subtleties (just like Wheat with Duke) because I don't watch every single game, because I don't get basketball strategy well enough, or simply because I don't want to see anything different. But as far as I can tell, more often than not, year after year, UNC tries to pound, pound, pound the round peg (that's labeled "Fast Break / Weakside Lobs") into the square hole (labeled "Win"). Sometimes they fit that darn thing in there. Sometimes they don't.

Which brings me back to the last sentence of your post that I included: if you can stop your #1 and #3, I think UNC becomes very ordinary in style. Lucky for them, "ordinary-style" basketball isn't damning because of the talent they bring in year after year. But the players are just never comfortable playing it, or Roy isn't, or they both aren't, or something. I don't know.

But that's my simplified take on the game. Get back on transition and be tirelessly aware of the weak side. And I think we win.

Paige is obviously an issue. But we know about him, just like we know about Christmas or Grant or Anderson or any team's best player. We will have our strategy regarding personnel, just like we always seem to do. For me, it's all about #1 and #3.

GO DUKE!!!

GTHCGTH!!!

- Chillin

[Saratoga2]

Looks like we can keep the volume on for this one. For the first time since 1979 the Duke-UNC game will be without Vitale. Bilas and Shulman calling the game as a duo.
Per George Halim USA Today sports.

Thanks to ESPN we will be spared Vitale for this important game.

[PackMan97]

I fully understand and respect the sentiment.
We've been waiting for some time for you guys to join the party and strike a few blows to the heart for us as well.

My desire and enjoyment to see Duke win does go beyond just an enemy of my enemy thing.

The first game I saw in a "crowd" atmosphere was THE Duke/UK GAME at the Camp Lejune bowling alley. Place was jammed packed and my friends and I watched the game while waiting for a lane. It was a blast and is the main reason I got into college basketball.

Not to mention my best friend had his kidneys fixed at Duke, he was in and out of there for the better part of two years. My dad also had his first heart surgery at Duke (25 year ago and he's still kicking)....so there is that as well. Not to mention, I just hate cheaters.

[wilko]

My desire and enjoyment to see Duke win does go beyond just an enemy of my enemy thing.

The first game I saw in a "crowd" atmosphere was THE Duke/UK GAME at the Camp Lejune bowling alley. Place was jammed packed and my friends and I watched the game while waiting for a lane. It was a blast and is the main reason I got into college basketball.

Not to mention my best friend had his kidneys fixed at Duke, he was in and out of there for the better part of two years. My dad also had his first heart surgery at Duke (25 year ago and he's still kicking)....so there is that as well. Not to mention, I just hate cheaters.

That's cool stuff.
I really cant watch games in a "crowd". At home I can fuss and cuss as much as I want and no one except the dog thinks less of me for it. I've seen relatives born and die at DUMC, so I get that as well.

I have no animosity towards State.
Back in 83 we were looking up to the Pack trying to be relevant in the local BBall scene. Struggling mightily as it were. Now its the Packs turn to try to break back into the pecking order..

While I'm not sure Gott is THE guy and Harrick is a little to close for my comfort based on his past history;
I do like seeing the Pack take it to the Heels. Just wish they would do it more often.

[NYBri]

That's cool stuff.
I really cant watch games in a "crowd". At home I can fuss and cuss as much as I want and no one except the dog thinks less of me for it. I've seen relatives born and die at DUMC, so I get that as well.

I have no animosity towards State.
Back in 83 we were looking up to the Pack trying to be relevant in the local BBall scene. Struggling mightily as it were. Now its the Packs turn to try to break back into the pecking order..

While I'm not sure Gott is THE guy and Harrick is a little to close for my comfort based on his past history;
I do like seeing the Pack take it to the Heels. Just wish they would do it more often.

Totally off topic:

Wilko, that is an awesome avatar you got there. Don't think I've ever noticed it before.

[Wheat/"/"/"]

Not to mention, I just hate cheaters.

NC State's documented history of cheating... (http://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=1980&dat=19891214&id=uaExAAAAIBAJ&sjid=0aoFAAAAIBAJ&pg=5928,3775210)

Your opinion is just that... get back to me if the NCAA determines the UNC basketball program knowingly "cheated".

[DU82]

NC State's documented history of cheating... (http://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=1980&dat=19891214&id=uaExAAAAIBAJ&sjid=0aoFAAAAIBAJ&pg=5928,3775210)

Your opinion is just that... get back to me if the NCAA determines the UNC basketball program knowingly "cheated".

You really don't want to go there.

You pull out a 25 year old article, yet can't see one that's only three years old...

http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/7677271/north-carolina-tar-heels-handed-postseason-ban-2012-ncaa

And...we haven't heard from the NCAA yet on the Wainstein report, where UNC said they cheated.

(Cheated meaning fake classes designed to keep players eligible, in addition to the previously admitted cheating with regard to football players' improper benefits.)

[devildeac]

You really don't want to go there.

You pull out a 25 year old article, yet can't see one that's only three years old...

http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/7677271/north-carolina-tar-heels-handed-postseason-ban-2012-ncaa

And...we haven't heard from the NCAA yet on the Weinstein report, where UNC said they cheated.

(Cheated meaning fake classes designed to keep players eligible, in addition to the previously admitted cheating with regard to football and basketball (mouthguards, rental cars, parking tickets)players' improper benefits.)


FIFY;).

[DU82]

FIFY;).

Thanks for the correction.

[-jk]

NC State's documented history of cheating... (http://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=1980&dat=19891214&id=uaExAAAAIBAJ&sjid=0aoFAAAAIBAJ&pg=5928,3775210)

Your opinion is just that... get back to me if the NCAA determines the UNC basketball program knowingly "cheated".

25 years ago?! And unc has been cheating for most of the intervening years? You went there? Really?

(Oh, wait - DU82 already went there.)

-jk

[77devil]

NC State's documented history of cheating... (http://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=1980&dat=19891214&id=uaExAAAAIBAJ&sjid=0aoFAAAAIBAJ&pg=5928,3775210)

Your opinion is just that... get back to me if the NCAA determines the UNC basketball program knowingly "cheated".

The cheating at UNC-CH, including basketball players, is well documented in the Wainstein report. And there's parking gate, dental gate, Tami gate, and Fats. Wheat, take your head out of the sand.

[Duvall]

NC State's documented history of cheating... (http://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=1980&dat=19891214&id=uaExAAAAIBAJ&sjid=0aoFAAAAIBAJ&pg=5928,3775210)

Your opinion is just that... get back to me if the NCAA determines the UNC basketball program knowingly "cheated".

Why are you waiting for the NCAA? UNC has documented its own history of cheating - isn't that enough?

[gumbomoop]

But as you note, Okafor is a terrible free throw shooter. So if it is tight late, we're less likely to go to him because he doesn't make free throws. Late in the game, the ball tends to find its way into the hands of Cook and Tyus Jones, either of whom are more than willing to drive it to the hoop.

FT problems for Jahlil and Amile require Krzyzewski to use timeouts and game stoppages judiciously late in tight games.

His tactics have to vary depending on exact time and possession situation. When Duke has ball and is running clock with, say, 1:30 left and 5-point lead, he probably has Jahlil and Amile on bench, maybe even using Justise and 4 guards. That lineup is even more likely under a minute, with ball, 4-5 point lead. If opponent fouls, Jahlil or Marshall comes back in for rebounding, replacing Grayson.

But if the game is tied at 1:30, or Duke is either up or down 1-2 points, Jahlil plays. Duke would take best shot, but Jahlil is as likely to get the ball as not, as opponents must be concerned about Jahlil getting an and-one. And dumping it down to Jahlil probably draws semi-double-team and leaves a perimeter shooter open.

[Devilwin]

I hate nine pm games....

[PackMan97]

NC State's documented history of cheating... (http://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=1980&dat=19891214&id=uaExAAAAIBAJ&sjid=0aoFAAAAIBAJ&pg=5928,3775210)

Your opinion is just that... get back to me if the NCAA determines the UNC basketball program knowingly "cheated".

I wasn't a fan of NC State twenty years before I was born. In fact, I wasn't a fan until we got put on probation until the early 90's. Lord knows why I became a fan then, given '91-92 was the first season I started to follow them. I guess given my love of brick, NC State and I are made for each other :) To my knowledge State has not had any significant violations in the past 25 years. If so, I'd have to say cheating to have a very mediocre athletic department is pretty danged sad.

Even then, most of the things State was busted for back in the old days were things that nabbed everyone in the triangle, especially something like the Dixie Classic scandal and some point shaving scandals. /shrug

Either way, I'm pretty sure we didn't run a Potemkin curriculum that spanned three decades and claimed that our school was just something special and thumb our noses at the team down the road for their academics when they flunked out students who had to go to class.

[ncexnyc]

The cheating at UNC-CH, including basketball players, is well documented in the Wainstein report. And there's parking gate, dental gate, Tami gate, and Fats. Wheat, take your head out of the sand.

Actually if you're a fan of UNC, it's probably better to keep your head in the sand, otherwise the stench from what's been taking place over there would kill you.

[OldPhiKap]

I wasn't a fan of NC State twenty years before I was born. In fact, I wasn't a fan until we got put on probation until the early 90's. Lord knows why I became a fan then, given '91-92 was the first season I started to follow them. I guess given my love of brick, NC State and I are made for each other :) To my knowledge State has not had any significant violations in the past 25 years. If so, I'd have to say cheating to have a very mediocre athletic department is pretty danged sad.

Even then, most of the things State was busted for back in the old days were things that nabbed everyone in the triangle, especially something like the Dixie Classic scandal and some point shaving scandals. /shrug

Either way, I'm pretty sure we didn't run a Potemkin curriculum that spanned three decades and claimed that our school was just something special and thumb our noses at the team down the road for their academics when they flunked out students who had to go to class.

Boom goes the dynamite.

[devildeac]

Thanks for the correction.

Public service/it's my calling. You're welcome;).

Oh, and BTW, they can still go to hell, too.

[BluBones]

Guys, can we get the discussion back to the game on Wednesday?

[CameronBlue]

Guys, can we get the discussion back to the game on Wednesday?

That's the $64,000 question isn't it: Can we get the discussion back to the game? The fact that the UNC scandal consistently works its way into any conversation about "the rivalry" is probably a good indication that the rivalry has fundamentally changed. Where it goes for here is anyone's guess and for some Duke fans I'm sure that depends a LOT about how UNC responds to the charges. So far those managing the University's response have not distinguished themselves.

[jv001]

25 years ago?! And unc has been cheating for most of the intervening years? You went there? Really?

(Oh, wait - DU82 already went there.)

-jk

I knew I had Wheat pegged correctly. GoDuke!

[gumbomoop]

Frequently I obsess on our guys' FT %. This season Jahlil and Amile are underperforming, though I don't know that we've actually seen hack-a-Jahlil. (Have we?) UNC probably has enough interior depth to foul Jahlil and Amile in first half. Why would Joel James not foul Jahlil? If Hicks is guarding Amile, why would he let Amile get off a close shot?

The other thing that interests me is whether Tokoto plays big minutes. He's not playing well, and Roy has the option to rotate Britt and Berry to play alongside Paige. Maybe Tokoto mostly shares the wing/3 with Jackson. Although I'm not much impressed with Tokoto's O, I see that he could always have a career game at the wing/2 and cause serious problems at both ends of the court. Don't predict it, but worry a little about that height differential. I'd rather see Tokoto trying to guard Winslow.

[Kedsy]

The other thing that interests me is whether Tokoto plays big minutes. He's not playing well, and Roy has the option to rotate Britt and Berry to play alongside Paige. Maybe Tokoto mostly shares the wing/3 with Jackson. Although I'm not much impressed with Tokoto's O, I see that he could always have a career game at the wing/2 and cause serious problems at both ends of the court. Don't predict it, but worry a little about that height differential. I'd rather see Tokoto trying to guard Winslow.

Seems to me, if Jackson and Tokoto don't spend a lot of time on the court together, then UNC is throwing away one of their biggest matchup advantages (having Jackson or Tokoto being guarded by Tyus or Quinn). So I'm hoping that Britt or Berry play alongside Paige.

[gumbomoop]

Seems to me, if Jackson and Tokoto don't spend a lot of time on the court together, then UNC is throwing away one of their biggest matchup advantages (having Jackson or Tokoto being guarded by Tyus or Quinn). So I'm hoping that Britt or Berry play alongside Paige.

Yes, I agree with what you say here, all of it: UNC height advantage, and hope Roy nevertheless plays Britt and Berry as much as Tokoto. I don't know whether others who've seen UNC since 2d half of UL can chime in, but I sense that Roy trusts Britt and Berry more than he does Tokoto just now. And we do know, I think, that Tyus and Quinn play together substantially more minutes than do Jackson and Tokoto. I think.

If the height advantage thing is clearly working in the first half and, say, isn't undermined by Tokoto turnovers or poor shot selection, then K will have to have a counter-strategy down the stretch.

Also, I don't know exactly what to make of Jackson. I think he'll be a fine player in the future, but right now Winslow is both a more dependable and a more dangerous player. Winslow's relentless play recently poses a potential problem for the Heels.

[Henderson]

Yes, I agree with what you say here, all of it: UNC height advantage, and hope Roy nevertheless plays Britt and Berry as much as Tokoto. I don't know whether others who've seen UNC since 2d half of UL can chime in, but I sense that Roy trusts Britt and Berry more than he does Tokoto just now. And we do know, I think, that Tyus and Quinn play together substantially more minutes than do Jackson and Tokoto. I think.

If the height advantage thing is clearly working in the first half and, say, isn't undermined by Tokoto turnovers or poor shot selection, then K will have to have a counter-strategy down the stretch.

Also, I don't know exactly what to make of Jackson. I think he'll be a fine player in the future, but right now Winslow is both a more dependable and a more dangerous player. Winslow's relentless play recently poses a potential problem for the Heels.

A height advantage isn't much of an advantage if the taller player either is not capable of exploiting that matchup, plays in a system that doesn't take advantage, or gets burned on the defensive end because he can't stay with his man. Happily for Duke, I think we have a heelfecta there.

Tokoto, Jackson, Paige, and Johnson all seem to be underperforming compared to their abilities, and I wonder what they would be like in a better environment. My fear is that some combination of them will transcend Roy's coaching on the wrong night.

[Kedsy]

A height advantage isn't much of an advantage if the taller player either is not capable of exploiting that matchup, plays in a system that doesn't take advantage, or gets burned on the defensive end because he can't stay with his man. Happily for Duke, I think we have a heelfecta there.

While there is a grain of truth in what you say here, have you ever tried guarding someone 7 or 8 inches taller than you are? Even if they're not very good, unless the taller player is totally incompetent the shorter player is at a huge disadvantage. And I don't think Tokoto and Jackson are totally incompetent. So I'm not as confident as you seem to be that we can come out on the good side of that matchup, at least when we're on defense.

[gep]

Looks like we can keep the volume on for this one. For the first time since 1979 the Duke-UNC game will be without Vitale. Bilas and Shulman calling the game as a duo.
Per George Halim USA Today sports.
I've read this in various places. Anyone know why? I hope Dickie V is ok.

[freshmanjs]

I've read this in various places. Anyone know why? I hope Dickie V is ok.

because he is no longer the #1 ESPN analyst.

[uh_no]

because he is no longer the #1 ESPN analyst.

he was considered an analyst? oy vey

I figured "color commentary" would be more appropriate.

[Seattle Hoo]

While there is a grain of truth in what you say here, have you ever tried guarding someone 7 or 8 inches taller than you are? Even if they're not very good, unless the taller player is totally incompetent the shorter player is at a huge disadvantage. And I don't think Tokoto and Jackson are totally incompetent. So I'm not as confident as you seem to be that we can come out on the good side of that matchup, at least when we're on defense.

Ever see Buck Williams guard Ralph Sampson? That's just the first example that comes to mind.

What is Tokoto's offensive game? Is he going to take advantage of the height more than the opponent is going to be able to exploit quickness? I contend that quickness is more difficult to match up with than size. Also, I have not watched a lot of UNC's games in the last few years, but I've never seen a game where Tokoto was more than "Just a Guy." Really, if you're worried about the matchup with Tokoto that is either a very good thing for you or a very bad thing. Either you have everyone else locked down and you're worried about tying up the loose ends, or you're hopelessly outmanned. I'm just going to go out on a limb here and say that if Duke locks down Marcus Paige and controls the paint, Tokoto is not going to beat you.

[mattman91]

I hope the game isn't postponed again. Idk about the triangle, but Asheville is nasty.

Oh yeah...GTHC, GTH

[sagegrouse]

because he is no longer the #1 ESPN analyst.

Bilas is the #1 analyst for CBS. Vitale will turn 76 in June.

[DU82]

I hope the game isn't postponed again. Idk about the triangle, but Asheville is nasty.

Oh yeah...GTHC, GTH

Covered with ice here. The interstates are being treated (although still slick) but won't get to many (If any) other roads today. With the temps not getting above 30, not much can be done.

[freshmanjs]

Bilas is the #1 analyst for CBS. Vitale will turn 76 in June.

#1 analyst team for CBS is Grant Hill and Bill Rafftery. Bilas is on ESPN.

[devildeac]

Covered with ice here. The interstates are being treated (although still slick) but won't get to many (If any) other roads today. With the temps not getting above 30, not much can be done.


They could start walking to CIS this morning and be there by early afternoon today most likely. Think of how much melting would occur along 15-501 if they did that:rolleyes: ;) .

4763

[CDu]

While there is a grain of truth in what you say here, have you ever tried guarding someone 7 or 8 inches taller than you are? Even if they're not very good, unless the taller player is totally incompetent the shorter player is at a huge disadvantage. And I don't think Tokoto and Jackson are totally incompetent. So I'm not as confident as you seem to be that we can come out on the good side of that matchup, at least when we're on defense.

Well, Tokoto is only 3 inches taller than Cook. Jackson is substantially taller than Tyus Jones (6-7 inches - I'm not sure I buy that Jackson is really 6'8"). But I think he's less likely than Tokoto to take advantage of the size difference.

[CajunDevil]

While there is a grain of truth in what you say here, have you ever tried guarding someone 7 or 8 inches taller than you are? Even if they're not very good, unless the taller player is totally incompetent the shorter player is at a huge disadvantage. And I don't think Tokoto and Jackson are totally incompetent. So I'm not as confident as you seem to be that we can come out on the good side of that matchup, at least when we're on defense.


If Tokoto and Jackson were Kyle Korver-esque from the outside or Jahlil on the inside then I would be concerned. Given that neither player will be able to post up without bigs coming over to help and that they aren't real threats from outside of 10' then I think these matchups are at least a push for Duke. Throw in Duke's vast quickness advantage when the two heels have to dribble vs. the heels' offensive rebound advantage and I think overall it's not a negative for Duke. I could actually see it looking much like the bigger Wisconsin wings bothered by Tyus/Quinn's quickness.

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

Covered with ice here. The interstates are being treated (although still slick) but won't get to many (If any) other roads today. With the temps not getting above 30, not much can be done.
Will be interesting to see what kind of comments come out of hell today and tomorrow and if this turns into some kind of pissing contest considering last year's postponement. I fully expect at least one snide comment from bubba before game time tomorrow. Making the popcorn now...

[AIRFORCEDUKIE]

I don't remember there ever being fans of other teams arguing on our board before that was good times.

As for the game, I don't have much to say. I think we should win, and I expect it to be a great game. I typically go into no comment mode during these games so I don't have much to share.

Key to the game is Winslow in my opinion, other than Tyus Jones who I think is the key to every game. As our Freshman Point Guard goes so this team goes.

[Stray Gator]

They could start walking to CIS this morning and be there by early afternoon today most likely. Think of how much melting would occur along 15-501 if they did that:rolleyes: ;) .

4763

We were planning to come up tomorrow -- I haven't missed a home game against UNC in many years -- but based on the weather forecast it seems likely that there will be dangerously icy roads around Durham tomorrow evening, so we just decided to cancel the trip up from Tampa. I understand that two other couples from Atlanta with whom we usually attend these home games have also decided not to make the trip. Unless there's a dramatic change, the cold weather and hazardous driving conditions will probably affect attendance even among those who live closer to Durham. Ordinarily I dislike postponing games, even if it means I'll have to miss it, because there's never a more convenient time to play a make-up game. But if the travel conditions around the Triangle are as bad as forecast, and that makes it impractical to have a full house in Cameron tomorrow night, I hope they'll reschedule the game. (On the other hand, what would Cameron be like if they also filled the seats upstairs with students?)

[Lunchab1es]

(On the other hand, what would Cameron be like if they also filled the seats upstairs with students?)

The sound you just heard was my mind melting. That atmosphere would be unreal.

[moonpie23]

calling for more snow tomorrow night....temps under 30

[weezie]

(On the other hand, what would Cameron be like if they also filled the seats upstairs with students?)

Someone will have to pry my ticket out of my icy frozen fingers if we're waylaid by NC travel conditions. We will leave early tomorrow from VA and we will be there. I filled up the bludevl with diesel yesterday, the suv is pointed out the driveway near the main road, State of VA has done a fine job of clearing the roads and we are roaring, raring to go.

The team would miss me if I wasn't there! They depend on me to rally the Crusties!

"You're in HELL carholina, you're in HELL!"

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

If someone needs to unload their tix, I would be glad to aid that process! Have 4wd and will gladly brave the roads to help cheer on the good guys!

[moonpie23]

If someone needs to unload their tix, I would be glad to aid that process! Have 4wd and will gladly brave the roads to help cheer on the good guys!

I second that emotion...

[Olympic Fan]

We were planning to come up tomorrow -- I haven't missed a home game against UNC in many years -- but based on the weather forecast it seems likely that there will be dangerously icy roads around Durham tomorrow evening, so we just decided to cancel the trip up from Tampa. I understand that two other couples from Atlanta with whom we usually attend these home games have also decided not to make the trip. Unless there's a dramatic change, the cold weather and hazardous driving conditions will probably affect attendance even among those who live closer to Durham. Ordinarily I dislike postponing games, even if it means I'll have to miss it, because there's never a more convenient time to play a make-up game. But if the travel conditions around the Triangle are as bad as forecast, and that makes it impractical to have a full house in Cameron tomorrow night, I hope they'll reschedule the game. (On the other hand, what would Cameron be like if they also filled the seats upstairs with students?)

Conditions are improving (I live in Durham -- about five miles from Cameron). Sunny skies have helped, even with temps topping out just above freezing. Wednesday weather expected to be the same, so by late afternoon Wednesday, the main roads should be okay.

Of course, everything does refreeze after dark -- it's going to be bitterly cold here (highs in the teens, lows in the single digits) Thursday and Friday, so a lot of this may still be here Saturday when Clemson visits.

Some snow is expected Wednesday night, but what I'm hearing now are that it will just be a few flurries. Be careful, but don't be scared off.

And, as old-time Duke fans know, snow has always been a good luck charm for the Blue Devils!

[Bob Green]

...State of VA has done a fine job of clearing the roads and we are roaring, raring to go.

Since moving to Virginia over two and a half years ago, I have been impressed by VDOT. They do a good job preparing for and responding to bad weather. Now, to get back on topic, 9F!

[Wander]

If Tokoto and Jackson were Kyle Korver-esque from the outside or Jahlil on the inside then I would be concerned. Given that neither player will be able to post up without bigs coming over to help and that they aren't real threats from outside of 10' then I think these matchups are at least a push for Duke. Throw in Duke's vast quickness advantage when the two heels have to dribble vs. the heels' offensive rebound advantage and I think overall it's not a negative for Duke. I could actually see it looking much like the bigger Wisconsin wings bothered by Tyus/Quinn's quickness.

I agree. As far as I can tell, posting up of guards does not happen very often in the college game anyway - I remember Jumbo always wanting us to post up Scheyer over smaller guards (though he advocated everything for Scheyer). The fact that Tokoto and Jackson are poor 3 point shooters negates their size advantage somewhat as well. They could kill us on offensive rebounding, but if UNC is going to send their 2 guard to the offensive glass, then Tyus and Quinn should be able to fast break them to death. The size for UNC at the 2 and 3 spots is by no means irrelevant but it's not nearly as big a deal as it could be.

[devil84]

Conditions are improving (I live in Durham -- about five miles from Cameron). Sunny skies have helped, even with temps topping out just above freezing. Wednesday weather expected to be the same, so by late afternoon Wednesday, the main roads should be okay.

Of course, everything does refreeze after dark -- it's going to be bitterly cold here (highs in the teens, lows in the single digits) Thursday and Friday, so a lot of this may still be here Saturday when Clemson visits.

Some snow is expected Wednesday night, but what I'm hearing now are that it will just be a few flurries. Be careful, but don't be scared off.

And, as old-time Duke fans know, snow has always been a good luck charm for the Blue Devils!

My driveway is at the midpoint of the neighborhood sled hill. The kids are still having a blast with terrific sledding conditions while few cars have attempted the icy hill. I'm really hoping that sled hill is nice and dry by mid-afternoon tomorrow, but it looks pretty bleak given the current conditions. I may be walking to the edge of the subdivision and trying to carpool with someone who can get out!

That's the easy part. Then I have to worry about getting to mom's house to get her and the tickets, and my son will meet us there. She lives on a shoulderless country road, and has a long driveway with a hill at the end and deep ditches on either side, making it treacherous to get in and out of in slippery conditions. Unfortunately, it's pretty shaded, so it doesn't thaw quickly. There's no room to pull off the road and it's difficult for her to walk up the icy driveway. We're coming up with some pretty creative ideas to get all of us to Cameron.

The highways look to be in good shape and the primary roads are passable. Secondary and residential roads? Not nearly as good. At least, not in SW Wake County.

[AIRFORCEDUKIE]

I love that the strategies to get to the game will be more intricate than Roys coaching strategies!!!

[Stray Gator]

My driveway is at the midpoint of the neighborhood sled hill. The kids are still having a blast with terrific sledding conditions while few cars have attempted the icy hill. I'm really hoping that sled hill is nice and dry by mid-afternoon tomorrow, but it looks pretty bleak given the current conditions. I may be walking to the edge of the subdivision and trying to carpool with someone who can get out!

That's the easy part. Then I have to worry about getting to mom's house to get her and the tickets, and my son will meet us there. She lives on a shoulderless country road, and has a long driveway with a hill at the end and deep ditches on either side, making it treacherous to get in and out of in slippery conditions. Unfortunately, it's pretty shaded, so it doesn't thaw quickly. There's no room to pull off the road and it's difficult for her to walk up the icy driveway. We're coming up with some pretty creative ideas to get all of us to Cameron.

The highways look to be in good shape and the primary roads are passable. Secondary and residential roads? Not nearly as good. At least, not in SW Wake County.

Getting to Durham is not a problem. My concern is that the forecast shows a 70% chance of snow showers tomorrow afternoon, after which the temperature will drop below freezing (and will remain there from about 6 p.m. through sometime on Saturday). That's a perfect recipe for icy roads -- and having experienced driving on icy roads in Durham, I'm not confident about safely navigating my way around, even in my trusty Land Rover. Unless there's a fairly dramatic improvement in the forecast conditions by tonight or a rescheduling of the game, I think we'll just have to enjoy watching it from Tampa this year.

[freshmanjs]

Getting to Durham is not a problem. My concern is that the forecast shows a 70% chance of snow showers tomorrow afternoon, after which the temperature will drop below freezing (and will remain there from about 6 p.m. through sometime on Saturday). That's a perfect recipe for icy roads -- and having experienced driving on icy roads in Durham, I'm not confident about safely navigating my way around, even in my trusty Land Rover. Unless there's a fairly dramatic improvement in the forecast conditions by tonight or a rescheduling of the game, I think we'll just have to enjoy watching it from Tampa this year.

that is not what the current national weather service forecast says...

Tonight Mostly cloudy, with a low around 18. Calm wind becoming north around 5 mph after midnight.

Wednesday A chance of snow showers after 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 34. Calm wind becoming south 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Wednesday Night A slight chance of snow showers before 9pm. Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly clear, with a low around 8. Wind chill values as low as -3. Northwest wind 8 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Thursday Sunny, with a high near 20. Wind chill values as low as -4. West wind 9 to 13 mph.

[DU82]

Getting to Durham is not a problem. My concern is that the forecast shows a 70% chance of snow showers tomorrow afternoon, after which the temperature will drop below freezing (and will remain there from about 6 p.m. through sometime on Saturday). That's a perfect recipe for icy roads -- and having experienced driving on icy roads in Durham, I'm not confident about safely navigating my way around, even in my trusty Land Rover. Unless there's a fairly dramatic improvement in the forecast conditions by tonight or a rescheduling of the game, I think we'll just have to enjoy watching it from Tampa this year.

I posted earlier that the interstates were being cleared, but no assurances for the other roads. However, the sun, and plows, have done a decent job of the primary routes. Besides the interstates, that includes other freeways like US 15-501 and NC 147 (Durham Freeway, East-West Connector or I.L. "Buck" Dean Freeway, depending on your age) are clear. The primary surface routes such as NC 751 and Erwin Road are pretty good right now. (Erwin because of the hospital.) They may freeze up a bit tonight, but tomorrow they should be OK, meaning getting to Cameron shouldn't be a problem.

[jacone21]

For the Carolina game, you have to go all in. Is there a free snowmobile parking on campus?

http://www.snowmobile.com/gallery/gallery.php/d/37757-3/2014-Yamaha-Viper-Blue.jpg

[subzero02]

I agree. As far as I can tell, posting up of guards does not happen very often in the college game anyway - I remember Jumbo always wanting us to post up Scheyer over smaller guards (though he advocated everything for Scheyer). The fact that Tokoto and Jackson are poor 3 point shooters negates their size advantage somewhat as well. They could kill us on offensive rebounding, but if UNC is going to send their 2 guard to the offensive glass, then Tyus and Quinn should be able to fast break them to death. The size for UNC at the 2 and 3 spots is by no means irrelevant but it's not nearly as big a deal as it could be.

I am really worried about those two killing us on the offensive glass... I agree with you, I think their perimeter players are going to go after the offensive glass until we consistently burn them with our break.

[brevity]

Looks like we can keep the volume on for this one. For the first time since 1979 the Duke-UNC game will be without Vitale. Bilas and Shulman calling the game as a duo.
Per George Halim USA Today sports.

The News & Observer talks to Dick Vitale about it here:
http://www.newsobserver.com/2015/02/16/4560918/dick-vitale-i-will-absolutely.html


“I told them that I cannot lie when a writer asks me what’s my feeling not doing the game,” he said. “I said I have to be honest. And my honest reply to you is, obviously, I’m a loyal, team player. I will go where my bosses tell me to go.

“But in my heart I will absolutely miss being a part of North Carolina-Duke.”

Seems like a strange decision in light of recent events -- the over/under on the broadcast's use of "Michelangelo" went from 30 to 2 -- but ESPN had to cut the cord at some point. Maybe the studio will make a halftime visit to Tampa as a compromise.

[mattman91]

Go to Hell Carolina.

Felt the need to say that.

Carry on.

[AIRFORCEDUKIE]

How is the weather up near Durham today? Are the roads ok to drive on? Will it snow or ice over today at anytime? Will the game go on????

I am in West Palm, and even here its cold rain, gloomy, and chilly by Florida standards so you know its like 60 degrees out. But they are calling for record lows this week after this cold front passes through.

[sagegrouse]

#1 analyst team for CBS is Grant Hill and Bill Rafftery. Bilas is on ESPN.

Sorry. Must be the high altitude.

[jv001]

Duke is currently an 8.5 points favorite with the overunder at 158 points. I hope for 82-50 Duke win, but I don't think it plays out that way. More like Duke 83-uncheaters- 75. GoDuke!

[Henderson]

I only do it 2-3 times per season, but I may have to employ my "psychological hedge" strategy and put some money down at the local sports book on this game.

[bbosbbos]

Just reach my office in the west campus at 9:00am. The I40 & 15/501 are good for driving this morning. But some local roads are covered by ice. Everyone is a little slower than normal.

Surprisingly it is not that cold now. I do not think we will see any snow or rain in the afternoon or evening in such a sunny day. It is perfect for a Duke-UNC game.

So let me repeat, 9F9F9F9F9F

[wilko]

For the Carolina game, you have to go all in. Is there a free snowmobile parking on campus?

http://www.snowmobile.com/gallery/gallery.php/d/37757-3/2014-Yamaha-Viper-Blue.jpg

Parking? It isnt like they are gonna tow you...
Folks are clearing roads of accidents..... I'll wager they are prolly not worried about parking in the slightest at the moment.

[Dukehky]

Parking? It isnt like they are gonna tow you...
Folks are clearing roads of accidents..... I'll wager they are prolly not worried about parking in the slightest at the moment.

From someone who gave Duke like half my tuition in parking tickets. Those people are tyrannical and fascist. They AAAAALLLLLWAAAAYYYYSSSS worry about parking...

That being said, Go to Hell Carolina, Go to Hell, consume feces

[Henderson]

For the Carolina game, you have to go all in. Is there a free snowmobile parking on campus?

http://www.snowmobile.com/gallery/gallery.php/d/37757-3/2014-Yamaha-Viper-Blue.jpg

I do like the color of that machine. Some might call it "Yamaha blue", but it looks pretty Duke blue to me. Maybe Yamaha could be the official snow machine of the Duke Blue Devils. Heck, we already have a sponsor who makes pork rinds as the "official pork snacks of the Duke Blue Devils" (or something like that -- Bob Harris says it better). And the pork rinds aren't even blue. That's a preservative issue. Untreated, they might very well be Duke blue by the time you consume them.

[weezie]

....And the pork rinds aren't even blue....Untreated, they might very well be Duke blue by the time you consume them.


Indeed. The same color that your face might turn when you keel over from a heart attack after eating a bag of said blue pork rinds.

[duketaylor]

Weather channel showing chance of thundersnow for Durham tonite. Very appropriate, the immense heat within all the cold air.
9F9F9F9F

Blacksburg also forecast for thundersnow-amazing.
Maybe Jim Cantore will be in Durham tonight😀

[Seattle Hoo]

I only do it 2-3 times per season, but I may have to employ my "psychological hedge" strategy and put some money down at the local sports book on this game.

I wouldn't. You don't want to have any regrets at the end of the game.

[FerryFor50]

It's hard to predict how Duke/UNC will end up for a couple of reasons.

1) Rivalries are unpredictable
2) Players change a lot

We've hammered the first one a bit in this thread already. But #2 is interesting.

Last season, the key players in the Duke/UNC game were Rodney Hood and Jabari Parker. For UNC, Leslie "the mouthguard" McDonald and JMM were key players. All are gone.

Sulaimon typically mercurial, shooting 2-10 in the first game and scoring 10 on 2-3 shooting in the 2nd game. He's gone.

Meeks, Joel James and Hicks for UNC were all developing and didn't factor in a ton. Meeks and Hicks are much better this season. Meeks has dropped some weight and can last more than 15-16 mpg. He's playing 23 mpg and having a solid year. I suspect he will end up bodying up Okafor with Brice Johnson coming over to double with his length.

As for Johnson, he's leveled out a bit after showing some promise from his freshman to sophomore year. He's skinny and a little weak and gets frustrated easily, leading to foul trouble. Still a talented offensive player and decent defender, but doesn't block as many shots as he probably should.

Paige has changed a bit, too. He's regressed from last year, probably due to nagging injuries. His ppg are down. He's shooting less efficiently. His PER is lower. But that just means he's a very good player rather than an ACC player of the year. Still dangerous.

Tokoto is evolving a bit, too. He's actually way worse from 2 than last season (42% vs 53%) and way better from 3 (34.5% to 22%). It's like he worked solely on his 3 point shot and ignored every other shot over the summer. He's also a turnover machine - nearly 3 per game. Fouls about 2.5 per game and was in foul trouble in both meetings last year.

Duke has a nearly completely new cast of characters. Of all the major contributors from last season, only Quinn Cook remains. Matt Jones was there, but didn't factor in much. Plumlee got into foul trouble. Amile had two pretty quiet games, but was much better in the win.

I think tonight's game will come down to the "X factors." What players step up to have big games in addition to the studs?

For UNC, I think Hicks and Jackson will be key players. Paige will likely get his and UNC will have at least one guy shoot out of his mind (Britt? Tokoto?) that usually does not. Meeks and Johnson will likely have their hands full and one of them will get into foul trouble, potentially. I think Hicks will be a forgotten man and will play well. Hopefully not too well.... I also think Jackson will step up and hit some big shots in the paint. One reason I hope Duke goes zone (as opposed to Troublemaker's stance) is that I'd rather see them shoot 3s than drive into the paint. But we'll see...

For Duke, it's going to be Matt Jones and/or Amile Jefferson. I think the UNC bigs will have an effective double team on Okafor. I think the shooters will have an off night. So Amile will need to work on the glass, prevent offensive boards and get some putbacks. And Matt will need to hit some outside shots and stay aggressive on his drives, while providing solid defense and timely rebounding.

I hope that Duke runs away with this and that Williams keeps his ridiculous subbing patterns, but injuries have forced Roy to start playing guys in more regular fashion and it's provided more consistency. But I expect it to be another Maalox game where I am pounding on pillows.

[Seattle Hoo]

Duke is a much better team.

[flyingdutchdevil]

For Duke, it's going to be Matt Jones and/or Amile Jefferson. I think the UNC bigs will have an effective double team on Okafor. I think the shooters will have an off night. So Amile will need to work on the glass, prevent offensive boards and get some putbacks. And Matt will need to hit some outside shots and stay aggressive on his drives, while providing solid defense and timely rebounding.

Thanks FerryFor50. Nice analysis. I really can't comment on individual UNC players that much because I haven't watched them that much. But as far as our X-factors go, I have a couple, and it's neither Jones nor Jefferson.

1) Tyus Jones: Since Rasheed's dismissal, Jones's minutes have gone up 7 in ACC play and his ORtg is an insane 133 (compared to 110 in ACC play before Rasheed) (Source: Luke Winn). He is playing more aggressively, he's passing better, and he's so much more focused. Also, his chemistry with Quinn has been amazing. IMO, it's the best chemistry on the team (better than Tyus/Okafor). Also, Jones has the task of guarding Paige. While Paige's numbers are down this year, he is still shooting 41% from deep and 50% from the 2 in ACC play. Also, he's averaging a very solid 4.8 assists. He's a handful and Tyus needs to bring his defensive A-game against Paige. Paige is the one player who can take off for UNC, and given Tyus's defensive struggles at times, this may be an issue.

2) Justise Winslow: I like your take on Amile, but Amile has been so up-and-down (primarily down) in ACC play. Amile's rebounding in ACC play has been underwhelming, and Coach K loves having Jahlil work alone in the paint. Amile will get his chance to shine during this game, but I think we're going to see the G-G-G-F-C line-up a lot tonight. And that means that Justise needs to rebound like a maniac. Furthermore, having Justise at the 4 means having another player who can disrupt passing lanes effectively. And given that UNC is averaging the most assists in the NCAA, the passing lanes are gonna be ripe for steals.

We know that Quinn, Tyus, Winslow, and Okafor are gonna get their minutes. I also believe that Matt Jones is going to see 25+ minutes, maybe more. Unfortunately, I see Amile drawing the short straw again. Also, given Duke's advantage against UNC on the perimeter and wings, Coach K may try that line-up a lot to force Ole Roy to go small as well.

Not a Bold Prediction: Okafor will get a double-double. Duke will win by 8.

Bold Prediction: Tyus will get a double-double. Quinn Cook will score 20+. Duke will hold UNC assists to >12.

[FerryFor50]

Thanks FerryFor50. Nice analysis. I really can't comment on individual UNC players that much because I haven't watched them that much. But as far as our X-factors go, I have a couple, and it's neither Jones nor Jefferson.

1) Tyus Jones: Since Rasheed's dismissal, Jones's minutes have gone up 7 in ACC play and his ORtg is an insane 133 (compared to 110 in ACC play before Rasheed) (Source: Luke Winn). He is playing more aggressively, he's passing better, and he's so much more focused. Also, his chemistry with Quinn has been amazing. IMO, it's the best chemistry on the team (better than Tyus/Okafor). Also, Jones has the task of guarding Paige. While Paige's numbers are down this year, he is still shooting 41% from deep and 50% from the 2 in ACC play. Also, he's averaging a very solid 4.8 assists. He's a handful and Tyus needs to bring his defensive A-game against Paige. Paige is the one player who can take off for UNC, and given Tyus's defensive struggles at times, this may be an issue.

2) Justise Winslow: I like your take on Amile, but Amile has been so up-and-down (primarily down) in ACC play. Amile's rebounding in ACC play has been underwhelming, and Coach K loves having Jahlil work alone in the paint. Amile will get his chance to shine during this game, but I think we're going to see the G-G-G-F-C line-up a lot tonight. And that means that Justise needs to rebound like a maniac. Furthermore, having Justise at the 4 means having another player who can disrupt passing lanes effectively. And given that UNC is averaging the most assists in the NCAA, the passing lanes are gonna be ripe for steals.

We know that Quinn, Tyus, Winslow, and Okafor are gonna get their minutes. I also believe that Matt Jones is going to see 25+ minutes, maybe more. Unfortunately, I see Amile drawing the short straw again. Also, given Duke's advantage against UNC on the perimeter and wings, Coach K may try that line-up a lot to force Ole Roy to go small as well.

Not a Bold Prediction: Okafor will get a double-double. Duke will win by 8.

Bold Prediction: Tyus will get a double-double. Quinn Cook will score 20+. Duke will hold UNC assists to >12.

Well, for me, an X factor is generally an unsung hero. Not one of your star stud freshmen. :)

I do think Tyus will have a huge game - he has consistently showed up in big games like this and Paige isn't really that great of a defender.

And Winslow, who now seems healthy, is a load for anyone on UNC to stop. I suspect they will try Tokoto on him, which will be a mistake. Tokoto might rack up some fouls.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Well, for me, an X factor is generally an unsung hero. Not one of your star stud freshmen. :)

I do think Tyus will have a huge game - he has consistently showed up in big games like this and Paige isn't really that great of a defender.

And Winslow, who now seems healthy, is a load for anyone on UNC to stop. I suspect they will try Tokoto on him, which will be a mistake. Tokoto might rack up some fouls.

IMO, Duke has 1 stud freshman with great supporting members. ;) But I see your point. If Oak/Tyus/Justise/Quinn can't be considered X-factors, then my money is on Matt Jones. I unfortunately can't see Amile as our X-factor.

[oldnavy]

I think Amile is going to be key. If we can get his energy and aggressiveness up to the point UNC is forced to deal with him, it opens us up so much. Plus we need his rebounding.

[FerryFor50]

IMO, Duke has 1 stud freshman with great supporting members. ;) But I see your point. If Oak/Tyus/Justise/Quinn can't be considered X-factors, then my money is on Matt Jones. I unfortunately can't see Amile as our X-factor.

Yeah Amile is a tough sell, given his past few weeks. But he's due, right? :)

[throatybeard]

I don't have time to read this whole thread. Someone text me when Wheat comes in arguing that we have no strong post presence on this team. Okafor's only going to go first in the draft, after all, not zero-eth.

[FerryFor50]

I don't have time to read this whole thread. Someone text me when Wheat comes in arguing that we have no strong post presence on this team. Okafor's only going to go first in the draft, after all, not zero-eth.

You already missed it. (http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?35276-MBB-UNC-at-Duke-%28Wed-Feb-18-9-PM-ESPN%29-Pre-game-and-In-Game-Thread&p=779962#post779962)

Except the argument was that we don't get him the ball enough. :)

[JetpackJesus]

Does anyone know which jersey Duke is wearing tonight? I tried a quick search and didn't see this info. My apologies if this has already been covered earlier/elsewhere.

[sagegrouse]

IMO, Duke has 1 stud freshman with great supporting members. ;) But I see your point. If Oak/Tyus/Justise/Quinn can't be considered X-factors, then my money is on Matt Jones. I unfortunately can't see Amile as our X-factor.

In some ways, Tyus Jones is the most impressive Duke player. He has played exceptionally well the last few games. Justise has also been, at times, the best player on the court. This is quite a trio of freshmen.

[AIRFORCEDUKIE]

In some ways, Tyus Jones is the most impressive Duke player. He has played exceptionally well the last few games. Justise has also been, at times, the best player on the court. This is quite a trio of freshmen.

Agreed we are amazingly spoiled by this freshman class, we won't see this anywhere very often.

[JetpackJesus]

Does anyone know which jersey Duke is wearing tonight? I tried a quick search and didn't see this info. My apologies if this has already been covered earlier/elsewhere.

Well, I'm an idiot so just ignore me. I don't know how I got it in my head this one was at UNC. Obviously, I know which color we're wearing.

[TruBlu]

And Winslow, who now seems healthy, is a load for anyone on UNC to stop. I suspect they will try Tokoto on him, which will be a mistake. Tokoto might rack up some fouls.

But then again, he plays for unc, so he probably won't. (Does this qualify as the first official complaint about the refs?):mad:

GTHC!

[OldPhiKap]

Does anyone know which jersey Duke is wearing tonight? I tried a quick search and didn't see this info. My apologies if this has already been covered earlier/elsewhere.

I may be mixing up my threads, but I think they say "DEAN" on them.

[alteran]

How is the weather up near Durham today? Are the roads ok to drive on? Will it snow or ice over today at anytime? Will the game go on????

I am in West Palm, and even here its cold rain, gloomy, and chilly by Florida standards so you know its like 60 degrees out. But they are calling for record lows this week after this cold front passes through.

Temperature is almost 40, lots of melting snow/ice.

Durham aggressively plowed/salted/brined the primary roads, and many of the secondary roads. However, if you didn't make the first cut, you got hosed. I haven't been on the roads since 10, but these roads must be improving a lot right now.

Anyone visiting from out of town should have minimal trouble. Make allowances for a few trouble spots and minimal black ice, particularly where there is shade.

There's a realistic chance of flurries in the 4-6 pm time frame, so that's a bit of a wild card.

[throatybeard]

You already missed it. (http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?35276-MBB-UNC-at-Duke-%28Wed-Feb-18-9-PM-ESPN%29-Pre-game-and-In-Game-Thread&p=779962#post779962)

Except the argument was that we don't get him the ball enough. :)

It's good to know that some things never change, even if they're negative. You can price them into your head.

[NYBri]

I've had a crappy day. Sure hope we win tonight to turn it around...because, after all, it's all about me.

:-)

[Duke4life92]

This is always nice to watch.Hoping we can win tonight and not need this kinda finish.Have'nt read the all the pages so hopefully not repeating,lol.Have fun tonight.
http://youtu.be/3X1ewxVwhug

[AIRFORCEDUKIE]

This is always nice to watch.Hoping we can win tonight and not need this kinda finish.Have'nt read the all the pages so hopefully not repeating,lol.Have fun tonight.
http://youtu.be/3X1ewxVwhug

Is it bad that my favorite part of that video is Quinn Flashing the DUKE on his jersey to the UNC faithful? Love it

[Bob Green]

Is it bad that my favorite part of that video is Quinn Flashing the DUKE on his jersey to the UNC faithful? Love it

IMO, yes. But to each his own. I hate it when other players do it to us and I hate it equally when we do it. I believe it was Vince Lombardi who stated, "Act like you've been there before."

[dukebballcamper90-91]

I think Roy digs into bag of tricks early. I wouldn't be surprised to see zone against us and I could see it bothering us(mentally also) with the length they have with a Johnson, Meeks, Hicks, JP, and Paige.

[bbosbbos]

It is getting cloudy at 3:00 pm in Durham. Hopefully it will not snow soon.

[Bob Green]

I think Roy digs into bag of tricks early. I wouldn't be surprised to see zone against us and I could see it bothering us(mentally also) with the length they have with a Johnson, Meeks, Hicks, JP, and Paige.

We handled the Syracuse zone okay and they are a lot better at it than Carolina. My expectation is Carolina will mainly play M2M and attempt to create match-up advantages via substitutions. Foul trouble will be a concern for both coaches, but these are two coaches who know each other well so the bag of tricks will not be effective for either. I am convinced Coach K is the better coach and Duke is the better team now we have to go on the court and prove it.

[oldnavy]

We handled the Syracuse zone okay and they are a lot better at it than Carolina. My expectation is Carolina will mainly play M2M and attempt to create match-up advantages via substitutions. Foul trouble will be a concern for both coaches, but these are two coaches who know each other well so the bag of tricks will not be effective for either. I am convinced Coach K is the better coach and Duke is the better team now we have to go on the court and prove it.

I expect us to push tempo and try to run as much as possible... much like we did against UVA.

In the half court I HOPE we get into the lane either with passes to Okafor in the LOW post or thru dribble penetration, or pick and rolls. UNC is really prone to helping off their man in the lane and this would open up the 3 ball for us.

[The Gordog]

I expect us to push tempo and try to run as much as possible... much like we did against UVA.

In the half court I HOPE we get into the lane either with passes to Okafor in the LOW post or thru dribble penetration, or pick and rolls. UNC is really prone to helping off their man in the lane and this would open up the 3 ball for us.

I expect both coaches to try to push the pace while on Offence and slow it down on D. I predict a lot of runs with momentum swinging pretty far one way, then the other. Carolina will make some runs, but Duke will make more and longer ones. Duke 86 Carowhina 72,

[NSDukeFan]

Thanks FerryFor50. Nice analysis. I really can't comment on individual UNC players that much because I haven't watched them that much. But as far as our X-factors go, I have a couple, and it's neither Jones nor Jefferson.

1) Tyus Jones: Since Rasheed's dismissal, Jones's minutes have gone up 7 in ACC play and his ORtg is an insane 133 (compared to 110 in ACC play before Rasheed) (Source: Luke Winn). He is playing more aggressively, he's passing better, and he's so much more focused. Also, his chemistry with Quinn has been amazing. IMO, it's the best chemistry on the team (better than Tyus/Okafor). Also, Jones has the task of guarding Paige. While Paige's numbers are down this year, he is still shooting 41% from deep and 50% from the 2 in ACC play. Also, he's averaging a very solid 4.8 assists. He's a handful and Tyus needs to bring his defensive A-game against Paige. Paige is the one player who can take off for UNC, and given Tyus's defensive struggles at times, this may be an issue.

2) Justise Winslow: I like your take on Amile, but Amile has been so up-and-down (primarily down) in ACC play. Amile's rebounding in ACC play has been underwhelming, and Coach K loves having Jahlil work alone in the paint. Amile will get his chance to shine during this game, but I think we're going to see the G-G-G-F-C line-up a lot tonight. And that means that Justise needs to rebound like a maniac. Furthermore, having Justise at the 4 means having another player who can disrupt passing lanes effectively. And given that UNC is averaging the most assists in the NCAA, the passing lanes are gonna be ripe for steals.

We know that Quinn, Tyus, Winslow, and Okafor are gonna get their minutes. I also believe that Matt Jones is going to see 25+ minutes, maybe more. Unfortunately, I see Amile drawing the short straw again. Also, given Duke's advantage against UNC on the perimeter and wings, Coach K may try that line-up a lot to force Ole Roy to go small as well.

Not a Bold Prediction: Okafor will get a double-double. Duke will win by 8.

Bold Prediction: Tyus will get a double-double. Quinn Cook will score 20+. Duke will hold UNC assists to >12.

Do we expect T. Jones to be on Paige instead of Cook? Is UNC really leading the NCAA in assists? Why would that mean the passing lanes are ripe for steals? Wouldn't we expect that more from the team leading the NCAA in turnovers?

[DU82]

It is getting cloudy at 3:00 pm in Durham. Hopefully it will not snow soon.

Gov. McCrory has suspended non-mandatory operations in Wake County as of 3PM. This is to try and clear the roads of most traffic before the snow arrives (unlike last year).

Looks like the storm clouds are approaching Orange County (read into that whatever you'd like!)

[Troublemaker]

I expect us to push tempo and try to run as much as possible... much like we did against UVA.

I think this has just become modus operandi for us against ANY team. So many fastbreak weapons, from Tyus' throwaheads, to Quinn's leakouts, to Justise's coast-to-coasts, to transition threes, and sometimes a trailing Jah.

[alteran]

Do we expect T. Jones to be on Paige instead of Cook? Is UNC really leading the NCAA in assists? Why would that mean the passing lanes are ripe for steals? Wouldn't we expect that more from the team leading the NCAA in turnovers?

Since our defensive vulnerability is guard penetration (i.e., when our opponents are driving and not passing) and our defensive strength is choking passing lanes (i.e. when opponents try to make passes/assists), there's room to hope that we may fair well here. Since Carolina's rebounding advantage means we probably shouldn't play a zone, their propensity for passing and not driving is good for us.

That being said, I see your point that it's not like other teams weren't trying to clog passing lanes while UNC was racking up all those assists.

[roywhite]

I think this has just become modus operandi for us against ANY team. So many fastbreak weapons, from Tyus' throwaheads, to Quinn's leakouts, to Justise's coast-to-coasts, to transition threes, and sometimes a trailing Jah.

These are a few of my favorite things. ;)

[weezie]

I expect Roy to use all his time outs in the first ten minutes in a futile attempt to help his team stop crying when the score reaches 40-0.

The drive down 85 was fine. Everything is dry with just a few flurries.

OK then off to Tyler's for some warm-up brewskies!

[SkyBrickey]

I don't care if we are rolling and they are slumping, I fully expect this to be a war tonight that is decided late in the game. There's UNC and Duke on the jerseys, but these kids also know each other from the AAU, summer camp and all star game circuits. They will all give maximum effort and I wouldn't be surprised if a Carolina kid goes off and has a career night. We've inspired a few kids to do that this year.

In the end when we are all having heart attacks, I see Quinn and Tyus leading us home as cool as ever.

Can't wait for 9pm. Go Duke!

[Kedsy]

Is UNC really leading the NCAA in assists? Why would that mean the passing lanes are ripe for steals? Wouldn't we expect that more from the team leading the NCAA in turnovers?

UNC is really leading the NCAA (Division I) in assists per game. I don't know why that would mean the passing lanes might be ripe for steals, but it just so happens that UNC is tied for 264th in the country in preventing opponents' steals (based on steals per game; using the slightly more enlightening statistic of steals percentage, UNC is tied for 207th; Duke is tied for 60th in preventing steals per game and 49th in opposing steals percentage).

[duketaylor]

Who's announcing tonight's game?

[jamos14]

Who's announcing tonight's game?

I don't know about locally but on ESPN it's Bilas and Shulman.

[Duvall]

Who's announcing tonight's game?

Shulman and Bilas on ESPN and Brando and Bonner on Raycom.

[TKG]

Well, it must be the day of the Carolina game as I am starting to pace......... this cannot be healthy.

[OldPhiKap]

Well, it must be the day of the Carolina game as I am starting to pace......... this cannot be healthy.

DBR Board cardiologist is probably lurking intermittently, all is well.

9F.

[DU82]

Weather/Roads update. There's a small, quick burst (perhaps moderate white-out conditions on the road) but it doesn't appear to be sticking all that much. The snow is pretty heavy over Durham right now (they just had a check-in at Krzyzewskiville), however based on the speed of the front, it should stop by about 6PM. (This from WRAL a few seconds ago.)

The temperature in South Durham is 36, but is going to drop like a rock once the front passes through. (Per the Status Check thread, temperatures are expected to rise exponentially under Chapel Hill in a few hours.) That means black ice. The Iron Duke office just sent out an email saying that campus roads/walkways were mostly cleared, but did warn about possible slick spots.

If you choose to stay home tonight, please remember to call the ticket office to "turn in" your tickets so we can have a full house to support the team. (Or PM Newton14. He'll be sure to fill your seats with True Duke fans!)

[Indoor66]

DBR Board cardiologist is probably lurking intermittently, all is well.

9F.

I always worry that he might go down for the count! :mad::p:cool:

[Indoor66]

The Weather Channel says snow stops by 6:30. Maybe all will be OK tonight with clearing and cold.

[OldPhiKap]

I always worry that he might go down for the count! :mad::p:cool:

Yeah, better check the "Ymm, beer" thread to see if he is on call or if he is on call.

[bbosbbos]

Are UNC guys already in our house? If not yet, will they refuse to play tonight? :p:p They can say the snow is very heavy.

[Furniture]

Do we expect T. Jones to be on Paige instead of Cook? Is UNC really leading the NCAA in assists? Why would that mean the passing lanes are ripe for steals? Wouldn't we expect that more from the team leading the NCAA in turnovers?

Maybe Mr.D himself Matt will take a turn on Paige too...

[TKG]

There is precedence for them refusing to play--- see 82-50!

[Furniture]

It's hard to predict how Duke/UNC will end up for a couple of reasons.

1) Rivalries are unpredictable
2) Players change a lot

We've hammered the first one a bit in this thread already. But #2 is interesting.

Last season, the key players in the Duke/UNC game were Rodney Hood and Jabari Parker. For UNC, Leslie "the mouthguard" McDonald and JMM were key players. All are gone.

Sulaimon typically mercurial, shooting 2-10 in the first game and scoring 10 on 2-3 shooting in the 2nd game. He's gone.

Meeks, Joel James and Hicks for UNC were all developing and didn't factor in a ton. Meeks and Hicks are much better this season. Meeks has dropped some weight and can last more than 15-16 mpg. He's playing 23 mpg and having a solid year. I suspect he will end up bodying up Okafor with Brice Johnson coming over to double with his length.

As for Johnson, he's leveled out a bit after showing some promise from his freshman to sophomore year. He's skinny and a little weak and gets frustrated easily, leading to foul trouble. Still a talented offensive player and decent defender, but doesn't block as many shots as he probably should.

Paige has changed a bit, too. He's regressed from last year, probably due to nagging injuries. His ppg are down. He's shooting less efficiently. His PER is lower. But that just means he's a very good player rather than an ACC player of the year. Still dangerous.

Tokoto is evolving a bit, too. He's actually way worse from 2 than last season (42% vs 53%) and way better from 3 (34.5% to 22%). It's like he worked solely on his 3 point shot and ignored every other shot over the summer. He's also a turnover machine - nearly 3 per game. Fouls about 2.5 per game and was in foul trouble in both meetings last year.

Duke has a nearly completely new cast of characters. Of all the major contributors from last season, only Quinn Cook remains. Matt Jones was there, but didn't factor in much. Plumlee got into foul trouble. Amile had two pretty quiet games, but was much better in the win.

I think tonight's game will come down to the "X factors." What players step up to have big games in addition to the studs?

For UNC, I think Hicks and Jackson will be key players. Paige will likely get his and UNC will have at least one guy shoot out of his mind (Britt? Tokoto?) that usually does not. Meeks and Johnson will likely have their hands full and one of them will get into foul trouble, potentially. I think Hicks will be a forgotten man and will play well. Hopefully not too well.... I also think Jackson will step up and hit some big shots in the paint. One reason I hope Duke goes zone (as opposed to Troublemaker's stance) is that I'd rather see them shoot 3s than drive into the paint. But we'll see...

For Duke, it's going to be Matt Jones and/or Amile Jefferson. I think the UNC bigs will have an effective double team on Okafor. I think the shooters will have an off night. So Amile will need to work on the glass, prevent offensive boards and get some putbacks. And Matt will need to hit some outside shots and stay aggressive on his drives, while providing solid defense and timely rebounding.

I hope that Duke runs away with this and that Williams keeps his ridiculous subbing patterns, but injuries have forced Roy to start playing guys in more regular fashion and it's provided more consistency. But I expect it to be another Maalox game where I am pounding on pillows.

Excellent analysis. I really enjoyed reading this...I think Matt will continue his rise and step up tonight. I am not sure but may not see a lot of Grayson unless it's a blow out...

[DU82]

Are UNC guys already in our house? If not yet, will they refuse to play tonight? :p:p They can say the snow is very heavy.

Just said on WRAL that they will leave Chapel Hell as scheduled at 7PM (arrive at CIS around 7:30.) Doubt the weather will cause a problem at this point. The snow has stopped in most of Durham.

[brevity]

Is it bad that my favorite part of that video is Quinn Flashing the DUKE on his jersey to the UNC faithful? Love it


IMO, yes. But to each his own. I hate it when other players do it to us and I hate it equally when we do it. I believe it was Vince Lombardi who stated, "Act like you've been there before."

I'd go further. Players should only pop their jerseys if they want to show how to spell the name of the school on the front. So, Valparaiso. Quinnipiac. Bethune-Cookman. Maybe a few others. Duke is ineligible, even to those Chapel Hill cretins who would prefer to spell it differently.

[devildeac]

DBR Board cardiologist is probably lurking intermittently, all is well.

9F.

Pacing, too, but not this kind:

4767


But getting one of these ready:

4768

[devildeac]

I always worry that he might go down for the count! :mad::p:cool:

See post above;).

[subzero02]

The late money is going on the tar heels... The line moved from 8.5 to 8.

[duke blue brewcrew]

Apologies if I missed this from earlier in this thread discussion, but does anyone know where to find a comprehensive list of what bb/fb recruits will be in attendance for tonights big game?

[77devil]

The late money is going on the tar heels... The line moved from 8.5 to 8.

Late money to cover an 8.5 spread so what's the point?

[OldPhiKap]

See post above;).

I've got a special beer picked out for tonight in honor of Dean, tell you @ other OY.

[ubulls08]

Hi all,

New member here.

My father-in-law (Duke football alum in the 70s) and I are looking for a bar to watch the game tonight.

We are on Hilton Head Island.

Any tips would be greatly appreciated!

Thanks, and GO DUKE!

[brevity]

Apologies if I missed this from earlier in this thread discussion, but does anyone know where to find a comprehensive list of what bb/fb recruits will be in attendance for tonights big game?

I don't know about football, but this article lists some basketball recruits who plan to attend:
http://dukereport.com/duke-recruiting/duke-basketball-big-night-for-recruiting-with-unc-game/daldridge/

Also check recent posts of the 2016 recruiting thread. More than I wanted to read, but at least the effort is being put forth.

[elvis14]

Looking at the guide it looks like the game is on both ESPN and CBS. Is that right? Do we know who the announcers are for the CBS broadcast? I need to figure out which channel to watch and record. Don't know if I can take another game of Bilas after listening to him do the Syracuse game (love him when he's not doing a Duke game).

[Newton_14]

Looking at the guide it looks like the game is on both ESPN and CBS. Is that right? Do we know who the announcers are for the CBS broadcast? I need to figure out which channel to watch and record. Don't know if I can take another game of Bilas after listening to him do the Syracuse game (love him when he's not doing a Duke game).

Raycom/CBS is Dan Bonner/Tim Brando. G-Man was on tap with Brando before the death of his fiancé.

[subzero02]

Late money to cover an 8.5 spread so what's the point?

Really? A lot of people are interested in line movements.

[devildeac]

I've got a special beer picked out for tonight in honor of Dean, tell you @ other OY.

This I can't wait to hear/see.

Whatever brew it is, they can still GTH.

[elvis14]

Raycom/CBS is Dan Bonner/Tim Brando. G-Man was on tap with Brando before the death of his fiancé.

Thanks Netwon_14. We 14's need to stick together :-). I really don't know which I'm going to watch. I have the CBS queued up to be saved but I might switch it.

[-jk]

DBR Chat (http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/misc.php?do=cchatbox) is open!

If it gets a bit slow, refresh the page. As always - please follow the DBR Posting Guidelines.

Let's Go Duke!

-jk

[riverside6]

Live tempo-based stats for Duke/UNC, starters posted...

http://www.scacchoops.com/unc-at-duke-basketball-live-stats-02182015

[duketaylor]

Syracuse helping our ACC Tourney seed as we wait.

[Ultrarunner]

Bilas looks pumped in his intro remarks.:D

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

That was very classy. Go kick their wankers.

[jipops]

We'll likely get crushed on the boards. Perimeter guys simply have to be hitting their shots. I expect a nail biter all the way through. This is a tough matchup for us.

[BlueDevilBrowns]

So far so good offensively.

Cook and Winslow looking solid.