Decourcy on Monroe

[SilkyJ]

Reading Decourcy's article linked from the DBR homepage: I found this quote:

"Monroe, who is 6-10, 220 pounds and attends Helen Cox High in Harvey, La., has a broad set of shoulders and serious athleticism. What he does not have at this point in his development is any consistent means of getting the ball in the basket. He can take the ball off the boards and dribble into an open court, and he's a capable passer. But Monroe is not a jumpshooter by any means and not quick enough to drive the ball past prominent wings. That's why playing him outside is of little use."

Sound like another top 3 recruit who was a serious bust at Duke???

When you are 6'10, 220 and can jump out of the gym, its pretty easy to score in high school...but as we learned from McBob, it doesn't always translate to college. Frankly, Coach K needs to go out and get us another TRUE post-player a la Sheld...or lets hope Zoubek surprises us all...

[Patrick Yates]

Calm down silky, I think DeCourcey is trolling.

Yes, GM will have to be a post player to succeed both at college and in the pros. He will.

The summer hoops scene is seriously flawed. It is geared towards people being able to create their own shots. Most of the PGs are black holes, in that once the ball goes to them it ain't coming back out. True posts only excell when they are familiar with the PG, ie the PG knows when, where, and how the post sets up, what shots the post looks for, and how the post will react on penetration. This only occurs through endless repitions. The summer scene routinely throws kids together who are unfamiliar with each other's playing styles.

Rivals, and SI.com, both praised GM for being more assertive around the post, while abandoning he perimeter more and more. Now, GM's AAU team was relatively weak (GM being the only real star) so for them to win GM had to take over games. So he probably tried (had) to do too much this summer.

Also, DeCourcey is sorta wrong about GM. GM will never be a low post beast. He will probably top out at arround 245-250 lbs, not the 260+ of the posts DeCourcey mentioned. GM is probably shooting for more of a vintage C-Webb, from the glory days in Sac-Town. A big who can bang, but also step out and make you pay for packing the lane. If we get GM, he will be a post, so don't worry.

DeCourcey, who I respect A LOT, is probably basing this on the Vince Carter Camp, and not having seen a lot of GM play (cause his teams rarely excelled). Nike is heavily into GM, and they want some perimeter to go with his post. Perimeter skills are the difference between a journey man post and a superstar. GM will play in the post, but will bring a little extra to the table, and he was at the Vince camp to hone those skills. All will be well, so do not worry. Decourcey is trying to fill column inches in a slow period. If this were serious, it would have been all over the recruiting blogoshpere this summer. It wasn't.

That said, Duke DESPERATELY needs a post. If Singler is still here, Duke will have all the inside-out players we need if GM comes here. K will not, and should not, entice GM here with some asinine notion of developing how GM wants. In CIS, K will chain GM to the post and make him a multimillionaire, or GM could very well turn into another, if better, McBob. Which ain't something GM should be aiming for.

Patrick Yates

[Classof06]

Do I still want Duke to land Monroe? Every bone in my body wants the kid. That being said, I agree with Silky and Patrick in that Duke needs a post player. If Monroe isn't that, then still try and get him, but bring a true big in as well. Simply put, Zoubek is a project; don't let anyone tell you different. He is one that can and hopefully will be solid by his junior year or so, but he cannot be the only true post player on the roster.

This article hits close to home because if you look at (at least what I consider to be) the two most recent "disappointments" in Duke basketball, I immediately think of Josh McRoberts and Shavlik Randolph. Coach K envisioned both of them playing in the post when they had neither the experience/desire/skills to do so. The skills part isn't a knock; McRoberts game will translate much better to the NBA and I think it's evident that Shav's already does. But McRoberts was incapable of being our go-to guy last year because he couldn't score with his back to the basket consistently (see: ACC Tournament game against NC State). My point is that I'd hate to see K land Monroe only to want him in the post where he doesn't want to be. It would cause everyone involved the same frustrations the Randolph and McRoberts careers did.

If he performs as expected, then I think most Duke fans will see that it would be a waste to confine Singler to the post; his game is just too versatile. And that is why, looking past this season into the future, we desperately need to get a true big to complement Kyle. Realistically, Duke will be fine but a true post player is the piece that I think everyone will see Duke desperately needs this season. Monroe is great, but if he doesn't address Duke's biggest need, then bring in a player who does...with Monroe :D .

[SilkyJ]

Calm down silky, I think DeCourcey is trolling.

Yes, GM will have to be a post player to succeed both at college and in the pros. He will.


I didn't intend to sound like I was freaking out. I am completely calm and think we have a very good team going into this year, which will develop into an excellent team by next year (I'm not the first to say that our NC hopes lie in the 08/09 season).

I just want a real center!

[Wander]

Also worth mentioning is the flip side of us needing a post player: we are completely loaded on the wings. We don't need any more.

[VaDukie]

What do you guys think about Lance? I think he gets left out a lot when talking about post players. He'll never be a true post presence, but I think he can do a lot of things down low in an Antonio Lang style. Anyone else agree?

[Jaymf7]

Duke DESPERATELY needs a post. If Singler is still here, Duke will have all the inside-out players we need if GM comes here. K will not, and should not, entice GM here with some asinine notion of developing how GM wants. In CIS, K will chain GM to the post and make him a multimillionaire, or GM could very well turn into another, if better, McBob. Which ain't something GM should be aiming for.

Patrick Yates

I disagree that we need a legitimate low post scoring threat to succeed. While we DO need someone who can defend the low post, Monroe certainly can fill those shoes (and will need to have that ability to get to the next level). McRoberts had that ability, most of the time.

The problem with McRoberts was not that he could not score reliably down low -- it was that he could not score reliably anywhere. No one other than Paulus could at the end of last year. If McRoberts had an outside shot, or if he was quick enough to drive on the 4s and 5s that guarded him, we would have had very little problem with his lack on inside moves. McRoberts preference to linger on the perimeter and look to make great passes did not make him a great perimeter player. I suspect (hope) that Monroe is more effective from the wings.

If we were to land Monroe next year and both Zoubek and Thomas fail to develop, I still think we could have a great season with Singler and Monroe up front. We would lack depth, but if we stayed healthy it would not be unlike the run we made in late 2001 after Boozer went down (with Battier as our primary post presence).

Our team will have offense to spare in years to come. What we need is a defensive post presence. Monroe can provide that. Of course, I'd love another great big, but if that doesn't happen, it doesn't mean that anyone needs to be chained to the post.

[SilkyJ]

I disagree that we need a legitimate low post scoring threat to succeed. While we DO need someone who can defend the low post, Monroe certainly can fill those shoes (and will need to have that ability to get to the next level). McRoberts had that ability, most of the time.

The problem with McRoberts was not that he could not score reliably down low -- it was that he could not score reliably anywhere. No one other than Paulus could at the end of last year. If McRoberts had an outside shot, or if he was quick enough to drive on the 4s and 5s that guarded him, we would have had very little problem with his lack on inside moves. McRoberts preference to linger on the perimeter and look to make great passes did not make him a great perimeter player. I suspect (hope) that Monroe is more effective from the wings.

If we were to land Monroe next year and both Zoubek and Thomas fail to develop, I still think we could have a great season with Singler and Monroe up front. We would lack depth, but if we stayed healthy it would not be unlike the run we made in late 2001 after Boozer went down (with Battier as our primary post presence).

Our team will have offense to spare in years to come. What we need is a defensive post presence. Monroe can provide that. Of course, I'd love another great big, but if that doesn't happen, it doesn't mean that anyone needs to be chained to the post.

Excellent point. I actually must revise my earlier statement now to say that we need a legit center (or post presence) on defense, but not necessarily on offense. Although they need to get it down on the boards on both ends.

And as to VaDukie's question: I do think Lance will be a good player. But he is very skinny and didn't add too much weight this summer, so he will need some help down there. I do like what he brings on offense, though.

[Wander]

I disagree that we need a legitimate low post scoring threat to succeed.

"Need" is a strong word, and I don't know what your definition of success is, but I do know that the crap about the NCAA tournament being guard-oriented is complete BS, and I also know that very, very few teams make it to the Final Four without a legitimate low post scoring threat. Having one would be very, very helpful.

[ACCBBallFan]

Toward the end of the article, Decourcy opined that Greg Monroe may be like Charlie Villenueva and take two years to hone his NBA skills in college. Wouldn't that be too bad for the coach who lands him.

[johnb]

In order to get back to the FF (and/or consistently beat Carolina), we probably need 3 or 4 future NBA players. I certainly hope that a couple of our returning guys move into that category but none are there now. Monroe, regardless of weight, height, and geographic court preference, is very likely to develop into a lottery pick, and so is Singler. Unless we think/hope that half of our team made huge strides in the offseason, we shouldn't even debate the wisdom of heavily recruiting Monroe. He doesn't have to be Shelden, he just has to be great.

[Patrick Yates]

Unfortunately, as far as the 08-09 season is concerned, the C ship has sailed, and there is a fat lady singing on the bow of said ship as it disappears into the horizon.

I agree with what most of you have said. Duke may "need" a true post player for us to seriously compete for the NC in 09, but we will not get that true post out of this years class. All the C's are spoken for, or not considering Duke. Monroe is pretty much our only option, as far as recruiting. Again, we should be a good team in 08-09 regardless, as Zoubek and Lance will be more effective in the post (if they ARE ever going to be effective it will be more evident next year, and I think it will happen, NEXT year). Of course, that depends on Henderson and Singler sticking arround, and who knows if that will happen. We currently have no reason to believe they will go pro this year, so I am working on the assumption they will be in uniform in 08-09.

But, assuming everyone sticks arround and improves, we are still one true post from being dominant in 09. That player no longer exists in the current Sr class. K has put all our eggs into the Monroe basket, be it for ill or good. Other players, who had more of a Boozer/Sheldon mindset, were not pursued. Since it is widely agreed that this is a weak class, I will not throw too many stones at K for his decision. But, he has placed all of our hopes regarding being a truly elite team (being a FF favorite as opposed to a serious contender) into us getting Monroe. Hence the reason for some of my hysteric/paranoid ranting earlier this summer.

Patrick Yates

ps: to John B above. I would argue that we currently have 3-4 future NBA players, and maybe more next year. This year, Singler and Henderson (assuming the Asthma is under control) are virtual locks to be high, if not high lottery, draft picks some day. I would not be surprised to see Nelson make a team, and the other two frosh could be NBAers after 3-4 years. Zoubs has a chance, if only because the NBA is desperate for seven footers. I would ammend your 3-4 nba players comment to 3-4 players who will be significant contributors at the NBA level, of which I see at best 3 on this year's Duke team.

[JasonEvans]

There have been some excellent points made in this thread, but the thing that keeps on being only barely touched upon is Lance and Zoubek. All we have seen from them is a frustrating freshman season. We have no idea what progress they have made since then or how much they will make this year.

Lance, at times, showed excellent defensive instincts in the post. Zoubek clearly has some prime offensive skills for a man his size. Sure, there are areas these guys need to work upon, but if we are talking about next year they will both be juniors. How many teams in the land will have 2 McDonald's All-Americans with 2 years of college experience under their belt manning the post for them?!?!

Add to that the potential/probable return of Kyle Singer, who is as skilled as any big man coming into college ball is this year.

Add to that the potential arrival of Greg Monroe, the best player in the recruiting class and a guy with the size and strength to be a major force on the inside.

Folks, it is very possible that Duke will have one of the best frontcourts in the land next season... perhaps even the best. College basketball is just not full of that many stud frontcourt guys.

The notion that we need to be looking at someone else inside? Well, it just does not make much sense to me -- especially when you consider that this class just does not have many strong post players in it.

Big men almost always take longer to develop then wings and sometimes even PGs. We have 2 prime big men who arrived on campus last season and a stud-and-a-half who has not even played a game for us. Lets give them a chance before deciding we desperately need replacements for them.

--Jason "I think the odds that either Thomas or Zoubek is a really nice post presence are very strong" Evans

[Zeb]

I'm not sure the facts bear out your statement that bigs take longer to show their true value. The last three great post players at Duke (Shelden, Boozer and Brand) all had much more impressive freshmen seasons than Z or Lance had. While its possible Z and LT will blossom and I'm certainly rooting for them to do so, I think its more likely that they will remain on a lower trajectory than we would like.

Now that I think about it, Psycho T over in Chapel Hill is another example of a post player who showed his talent as a freshman.

Jason - could you help come up with some recent examples of bigs who were unimpressive as freshmen and developed into great college players? One that is coming to mind is Lonny Baxter, but I am coming up with a lot more counter examples than I am proof of your statement.

[ACCBBallFan]

Well said, Jason.

I agree that other than Monroe, Duke's prospects for 2009 success are better developing ZoubLance this year, than putting a halo on a post player from a relatively weak class, the same halos BTW that were placed on lance and Brian two years ago.

People keep saying it takes 2-3 years for a big man to develop, but that pre-supposes that they actually play, not mere passage of time watching smaller players play their position.

Post is not Lance's position, but somebody has to play there when Zoubs is resting or is in foul trouble, whether that is Lance, Singler or King.

Time invested in these four guys this year pays dividends next three years, with or without Monroe.

[Johnboy]

I'm not sure the facts bear out your statement that bigs take longer to show their true value. The last three great post players at Duke (Shelden, Boozer and Brand) all had much more impressive freshmen seasons than Z or Lance had. While its possible Z and LT will blossom and I'm certainly rooting for them to do so, I think its more likely that they will remain on a lower trajectory than we would like.

Now that I think about it, Psycho T over in Chapel Hill is another example of a post player who showed his talent as a freshman.

Jason - could you help come up with some recent examples of bigs who were unimpressive as freshmen and developed into great college players? One that is coming to mind is Lonny Baxter, but I am coming up with a lot more counter examples than I am proof of your statement.

Having truly great post players is wonderful, but very good players supported by great wings and guards can get the job done, as Duke has proven in the past.

[JasonEvans]

Jason - could you help come up with some recent examples of bigs who were unimpressive as freshmen and developed into great college players? One that is coming to mind is Lonny Baxter, but I am coming up with a lot more counter examples than I am proof of your statement.

First of all, I am not saying Zoubek or Thomas will end up as All-ACC players. I agree that mega-studs who go on to be lottery picks by their soph year almost always start out as studs as freshmen. Still, it is not at all difficult to find guys who were very good players and even NBA first rounders who did not do much as freshmen.

Step one is to remind everyone of Thomas and Zoubek's stats last year.

Lance averaged 4.0 ppg and 2.5 rpg in 14.9 mpg of play.
Brian averaged 3.1 ppg and 2.2 rpg in 7.3 minutes per game.

Just to show how common it is for a dud freshman to turn into a stud soph, here are the best ACC big men from last season who were not McJosh or Hasbro (who were highly touted coming out of high school and were expect to put up big numbers as freshmen-- unlike Zoubek and Thomas). Every single one of these other guys compare very favorably with our 2 guys who struggled a bit as freshmen.


Ekene Ibekwe played 13.6 mpg with 4.9 ppg and 3.9 rpg as a frosh.
Brandon Costner played just 13.8 mpg for NC State as a frosh with 2.8 ppg and 2.6 rpg. He was slightly better as a soph last season ;)
Ben McCauley also was a non-entity for State as a freshman with 6.9 mpg, 2.1 ppg, and 1.0 rpg.
Kyle Visser's freshman year at Wake was a dud, 12.4 mpg, 4.6 ppg, 2.6 rpg. In fact, he was even worse as a soph and only slightly better as a junior. He had a pretty decent senior season, though, didn't he?
Al Thornton was perhaps the best player in the ACC last year. His freshman campaign was 7.9 mpg, 2.8 ppg, and 1.8 rpg.
James Mays freshman year at Clemson was slightly better than the rest of the these guys, but not by a lot-- 16.0 mpg, 4.3 ppg, 3.4 rpg. That's not all that much better than what Thomas did last season.


Are you now convinced that maybe a so-so freshman season is not all that indicative of what a big man will become?

-Jason "that was easy-- I only had to go back one year to find many, many examples" Evans

[Zeb]

Original msg was: Yes.

Then I was told it had to be 10 characters, so here's a longer version: Sir, Yes, sir!

[monkey]

I'm not sure the facts bear out your statement that bigs take longer to show their true value. The last three great post players at Duke (Shelden, Boozer and Brand) all had much more impressive freshmen seasons than Z or Lance had. While its possible Z and LT will blossom and I'm certainly rooting for them to do so, I think its more likely that they will remain on a lower trajectory than we would like.

Now that I think about it, Psycho T over in Chapel Hill is another example of a post player who showed his talent as a freshman.

Jason - could you help come up with some recent examples of bigs who were unimpressive as freshmen and developed into great college players? One that is coming to mind is Lonny Baxter, but I am coming up with a lot more counter examples than I am proof of your statement.

The guy who came to mind for me played in 31 games for the baby blue folks down the road back in 1995-96, averaging 7.5 points, 3.8 boards, 1.3 assists, 0.6 steals per game - Vince Carter. By 1998, he had upped his scoring average to 15.6 ppg, 5.1 boards, first team all ACC, second team all american. While Vince's numbers were better than Lance's 4 ppg/2.5 boards, Vince's freshman season was considered a significant disappointment from a top-rated recruit

[Patrick Yates]

The guy who came to mind for me played in 31 games for the baby blue folks down the road back in 1995-96, averaging 7.5 points, 3.8 boards, 1.3 assists, 0.6 steals per game - Vince Carter. By 1998, he had upped his scoring average to 15.6 ppg, 5.1 boards, first team all ACC, second team all american. While Vince's numbers were better than Lance's 4 ppg/2.5 boards, Vince's freshman season was considered a significant disappointment from a top-rated recruit

With regards to VC, you are comparing different kinds of Fruit. The point was that Posts developed after bad Fr years, not perimiter players. VC was a freakishly athletic 6-5 kid, who played PF on a OK high school team where they fed him the ball. When he got to UNC he had to adjust to a whole new position, as well as a 2 inch growth spurt that really changed him. His frosh year they tried to shoehorn him into a purely perimeter player, and his shot wasn't up to par. With Antwan and Okulaja eating up minutes in the post, and Dante jacking up 3s, VC was kind of lost.

But, again, VC was a freakishly athletic SG/SF learning essentially a new position in college. LT and BZ have nowhere, and I mean not in the same galaxy as, level of athleticism. This is not a knock, VC was one of the more athletic players to come along in recent years. He was a (slightly) better athlete than GH (who would be an excellant comparison for VC, Hope to God). LT and BZ have nothing in common with VC. They are posts, and have been for most of, if not all, their lives. They were not learning new positions.

Jason Evans said

"Ekene Ibekwe played 13.6 mpg with 4.9 ppg and 3.9 rpg as a frosh.
Brandon Costner played just 13.8 mpg for NC State as a frosh with 2.8 ppg and 2.6 rpg. He was slightly better as a soph last season
Ben McCauley also was a non-entity for State as a freshman with 6.9 mpg, 2.1 ppg, and 1.0 rpg.
Kyle Visser's freshman year at Wake was a dud, 12.4 mpg, 4.6 ppg, 2.6 rpg. In fact, he was even worse as a soph and only slightly better as a junior. He had a pretty decent senior season, though, didn't he?
Al Thornton was perhaps the best player in the ACC last year. His freshman campaign was 7.9 mpg, 2.8 ppg, and 1.8 rpg.
James Mays freshman year at Clemson was slightly better than the rest of the these guys, but not by a lot-- 16.0 mpg, 4.3 ppg, 3.4 rpg. That's not all that much better than what Thomas did last season."

With Thornton, see my above comments. He is more of a SF at 6-7 and much more athletic than either LT or BZ. I do not really see where they compare.

McCauly, Costner, and to a lesser extent Mays I will give you. But, all three, while playing well at various points this past season, played extensively for weak teams that had very little to no team success. Indeed, all were essentially thrown to the wolves. They developed as a result of playing extensively in games where they lost, mainly because the coaching staff had no other option. K has not been a throw them to the fire type of guy.

As for Visser, I hope not. He didn't play well until his SR year, which for BZ and LT is probably a year too late for Duke to succeed. in 09-10 we could be breaking in a new PG, and I would be shocked if BOTH KS and GH are still at Duke. One is bound to leave early, and probably both, cause KS would have 2 years as a star by then. Also, again, KV had huge numbers on a truly excerable team where he was fed minutes and shots, neither of which will happen under K. A more cynical person than me, and there aren't many of those, might suggest that KV's numbers were inflated playing on a bad team with no quality players arround him in games that were over 10 min into said game.

I hope you guys are correct re LT and BZ, but I have this recurring nightmare where they are juuuuuuuuuuust servicable enough to scare off recruits while being not quiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiite good enough for Duke to be a truly elite (as opposed to merely pretty good) in 09.

Patrick Yates

[yancem]

Jason - could you help come up with some recent examples of bigs who were unimpressive as freshmen and developed into great college players? One that is coming to mind is Lonny Baxter, but I am coming up with a lot more counter examples than I am proof of your statement.

Two Duke examples are:
Cherokee Parks (F) 12.8 mpg 2.4 rpg 5.0 ppg
Cherokee Parks (Jr) 30.5 mpg 8.4 rpg 14.4 ppg

Erik Meek (F) 5.9 mpg 1.3 rpg 2.6 ppg
Erik Meek (Sr) 28.7 mpg 8.3 rpg 10.3 ppg

I know they were both playing on a stacked team as freshman but they developed into very solid front court players. Parks was very highly touted in high school and went onto be a lottery pick in the NBA. Meek ended up being drafted in the second round but I don't think he made the team (Houston).

[Lord Ash]

Folks, it is very possible that Duke will have one of the best frontcourts in the land next season... perhaps even the best.


Uhmmm... if front court still means "big guys who are centers and forwards" I think you are so off base that you aren't even still in the park, Jason. I think you need to be a little more realistic and take into account what we have seen when making these sorts of predictions.

[SilkyJ]

Uhmmm... if front court still means "big guys who are centers and forwards" I think you are so off base that you aren't even still in the park, Jason. I think you need to be a little more realistic and take into account what we have seen when making these sorts of predictions.

gonna hafta agree with Ash. Although I think from re-reading Jason's post he might have been referring to NEXT season, as in 08-09, due to the reference he made to monroe's arrival and talking about Zou and Lance having TWO years of experience under their belt. Is that right Jason?

[ACCBBallFan]

I hope you guys are correct re LT and BZ, but I have this recurring nightmare where they are juuuuuuuuuuust servicable enough to scare off recruits while being not quiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiite good enough for Duke to be a truly elite (as opposed to merely pretty good) in 09.

Patrick YatesIf recruits avoid Duke for fear of ZoubLance, either they were not that elite in the first place, or these two must be having a pretty good season this coming year and the two to follow.

[Classof06]

I'm not sure the facts bear out your statement that bigs take longer to show their true value. The last three great post players at Duke (Shelden, Boozer and Brand) all had much more impressive freshmen seasons than Z or Lance had. While its possible Z and LT will blossom and I'm certainly rooting for them to do so, I think its more likely that they will remain on a lower trajectory than we would like.

Now that I think about it, Psycho T over in Chapel Hill is another example of a post player who showed his talent as a freshman.

Jason - could you help come up with some recent examples of bigs who were unimpressive as freshmen and developed into great college players? One that is coming to mind is Lonny Baxter, but I am coming up with a lot more counter examples than I am proof of your statement.



I wouldn't call Shelden Williams' freshman year unimpressive and it was more impressive than either Lance or Brian's, but compared to the three years that followed his freshman year, his first year was nothing to write home about.

His freshman year, he averaged 8ppg, 6rpg and 1.5 bpg. By his senior year, he averaged 19ppg, 11rpg and 4bpg. So he more than doubled his points and blocks per game and almost doubled his rebounds per game. Not to mention, Shelden had a very tough time staying out of foul trouble his first two years. I think you all know how much of a Shelden fan I am, but I didn't think he would have a chance at getting his jersey retired after his freshman year or even his sophomore year, for that matter. It's not like he had a freshman year like JJ or Luol; each of them averaged 15ppg as freshman and neither were big men. It's just more common to see that with perimeter players.

That being said, I'd kinda have to agree with Jason on this one. It's not that all big men are unpolished their freshman year but I think on average, they take longer to develop. It probably has something to do with the fact that it takes taller kids time to catch up to their body; these kids aren't fully developed at 18, I don't care how tall they are. In fact, some of them probably add inches after signing their letter of intent.

[JasonEvans]

gonna hafta agree with Ash. Although I think from re-reading Jason's post he might have been referring to NEXT season, as in 08-09, due to the reference he made to monroe's arrival and talking about Zou and Lance having TWO years of experience under their belt. Is that right Jason?

Sorry I was not clear-- I was talking about 08-09 when I said "next season." Seeing as the school year has begun and basketball practice begins in a matter of a couple weeks, I see the 07-08 team as "this season" and the 08-09 guys as "next season."

So, I am saying that Jr. Thomas and Zoubek, Soph. King and Singler, and Frosh. Monroe could be considered the best front-court in the land. It is still 2 years of development away and obviously there is no certainty that Monroe will be here, but I stand by the belief that this is a possibilty.

As for Patrick poo-pooing my demonstration that it is not even remotely uncommon for big men to develop after difficult freshmen seasons, I don't know what more I can do. I looked at the top big men in the ACC last season and showed that all of them (except the 2 top-5 recruits McJosh and Hasbro) were pretty much total duds as freshmen only to blossom BIG TIME later in their careers-- often in their soph seasons. But, that is not enough evidence for him. Fine. I see I will never convince him. We will just have to see once the season starts (which is agonizingly still a couple months away). It will be easy enough to see who is right and who is wrong then.

--Jason "it is possible LT and BZ will not develop this season or ever-- but my point is that it happens all the time to big men and I think it is a reasonable guess that Duke will see AT LEAST one of these guys have a very solid season this year" Evans

[Classof06]

--Jason "it is possible LT and BZ will not develop this season or ever-- but my point is that it happens all the time to big men and I think it is a reasonable guess that Duke will see AT LEAST one of these guys have a very solid season this year" Evans

Again, I agree with Jason. It is a big fear of mine regarding this team that either Zoubek or Thomas never ends up developing, and it is a real possibility. This year will tell us a good amount about the two of them; especially the second half or the season for Brian.

[Patrick Yates]

Sorry I was not clear-- I was talking about 08-09 when I said "next season." Seeing as the school year has begun and basketball practice begins in a matter of a couple weeks, I see the 07-08 team as "this season" and the 08-09 guys as "next season."

So, I am saying that Jr. Thomas and Zoubek, Soph. King and Singler, and Frosh. Monroe could be considered the best front-court in the land. It is still 2 years of development away and obviously there is no certainty that Monroe will be here, but I stand by the belief that this is a possibilty.

As for Patrick poo-pooing my demonstration that it is not even remotely uncommon for big men to develop after difficult freshmen seasons, I don't know what more I can do. I looked at the top big men in the ACC last season and showed that all of them (except the 2 top-5 recruits McJosh and Hasbro) were pretty much total duds as freshmen only to blossom BIG TIME later in their careers-- often in their soph seasons. But, that is not enough evidence for him. Fine. I see I will never convince him. We will just have to see once the season starts (which is agonizingly still a couple months away). It will be easy enough to see who is right and who is wrong then.

--Jason "it is possible LT and BZ will not develop this season or ever-- but my point is that it happens all the time to big men and I think it is a reasonable guess that Duke will see AT LEAST one of these guys have a very solid season this year" Evans


If it seemed like I was poo-pooing your suggestion, I am sorry. But the examples you used were bad examples. Really bad. None of the 4 teams those kids played for were any good. Certainly, they were not in the Duke mold of expecting to be relevant nationally every year.

Certainly bigs develop after so-so freshman years. Although, Sheldon is really the only ones that comes to mind at Duke during the last 20 years. Sure, Parks, Meek, and Abdelnabby came on, but none of them really played a lot as frosh.

MSU has reems of post players that barely escape the bench as frosh and turn out to be 2nd or 3rd team all conf as seniors, all while MSU is consistently making the NCAA tourney. FL too, likewise UCLA, KS, and other schools.

All I was saying is that you used examples that I did not feel compared to LT and Zoubs. Most of those kids you mentioned benefitted from playing on weak teams where they got to play a lot due to lack of any altertate option for the coach. If LT and Zoubs can't do it this year, K will sit them on the bench and go small, an option that was not available to WFU nor NCSU last year. And, both those teams have been up and down recently, not like perennial NCAA participants, and certainly not as favorites like Duke considers itself to be.

I agree with your notion of Bigs improving, although I haven't seen it at Duke per se, but there were certainly better examples than the ones you used.

Patrick Yates

[riverside6]

Ok, this is where the comparable player feature on my site becomes fun. Through Brian Zoubek's (http://www.scacchoops.com/forms/tt_player_page.asp?reporttype=Details&total=yes&hleague=0&howner=all&hplayer=269&pp=yes&season=2008&Splits=0&Career=-1) freshman season, here are his top comparable players:

David Weaver 979.00
Laurynas Mikalauskas 973.00
RaSean Dickey 973.00
Alade Aminu 972.00
Kyle Visser 972.00
Donte Minter 971.00
Kevin Swinton 971.00
Avie Lester 969.90
Will Singleton 969.19
Jordan Collins 969.00
Jimmy Graham 969.00
Alex Stephenson 969.00
Al Thornton 968.00
Julius Powell 968.00
Norman Nolan 967.84

Here are the comps for Lance Thomas (http://www.scacchoops.com/forms/tt_player_page.asp?hPlayer=268):

Deon Thompson 979.20
Julius Powell 968.00
Sam Perry 967.00
Jimmy Graham 966.00
Marcus Ginyard 965.00
Gavin Grant 964.00
Ryan Reid 963.92
Julius Peppers 963.49
Mamadi Diane 962.00
Will Singleton 961.70
Robert Brickey 960.84
Derrick Byars 960.00
Kevin Swinton 960.00
Chris Ellis 960.00
Maurice Robinson 958.41

Not really any studs on that list for either player, although there were some guys that developed nicely (Visser and Thornton stand out for Zoubek, while Powell, Grant and Byars are nice players for Thomas).

[SilkyJ]

Ok, this is where the comparable player feature on my site becomes fun. Through Brian Zoubek's (http://www.scacchoops.com/forms/tt_player_page.asp?reporttype=Details&total=yes&hleague=0&howner=all&hplayer=269&pp=yes&season=2008&Splits=0&Career=-1) freshman season, here are his top comparable players:

David Weaver 979.00
Laurynas Mikalauskas 973.00
RaSean Dickey 973.00
Alade Aminu 972.00
....



I have no idea what those numbers mean, and a very brief glance at the links you provided gave me no help (the zoubek link is bad, btw). Could you explain?

[riverside6]

My apologies, although the Zoubek link works for me?

Here is the URL, perhaps this will work better...

http://www.scacchoops.com/forms/tt_player_page.asp?hplayer=269

Here is the formula used to compare players posted on my site:


Similarity Scores

Similarity scores are not my concept. Bill James introduced them nearly 15 years ago for baseball, and I have attempted to translate it for basketball. To compare one player to another, start at 1000 points and then you subtract points based on the statistical differences of each player.

* One point for each difference of 20 points scored
* One point for each difference of 5 assists
* One point for each difference of 5 rebounds
* One point for each difference of 2 steals
* One point for each difference of 2 blocks
* One point for each difference of 4 turnovers
* One point for each difference of 1 foul out
* One point for each difference of 2 offensive rebounds
* One point for each difference of .01 in fg %
* One point for each difference of .01 in 3pt %
* One point for each difference of .02 in ft %
* One point for each difference of 25 minutes played

There is also a position adjustment made...

* If the player plays the same position, subtract 0 points
* If the player plays a different position, subtract 10 points

[ACCBBallFan]

I have no idea what those numbers mean, and a very brief glance at the links you provided gave me no help (the zoubek link is bad, btw). Could you explain?Zoubek link worked with Mozilla Firefox.

You may have to allow pup-ups for it to work.

[Carlos]

Just to show how common it is for a dud freshman to turn into a stud soph,

....snip....


Ekene Ibekwe played 13.6 mpg with 4.9 ppg and 3.9 rpg as a frosh.
Brandon Costner played just 13.8 mpg for NC State as a frosh with 2.8 ppg and 2.6 rpg. He was slightly better as a soph last season ;)
Ben McCauley also was a non-entity for State as a freshman with 6.9 mpg, 2.1 ppg, and 1.0 rpg.
Kyle Visser's freshman year at Wake was a dud, 12.4 mpg, 4.6 ppg, 2.6 rpg. In fact, he was even worse as a soph and only slightly better as a junior. He had a pretty decent senior season, though, didn't he?
Al Thornton was perhaps the best player in the ACC last year. His freshman campaign was 7.9 mpg, 2.8 ppg, and 1.8 rpg.
James Mays freshman year at Clemson was slightly better than the rest of the these guys, but not by a lot-- 16.0 mpg, 4.3 ppg, 3.4 rpg. That's not all that much better than what Thomas did last season.




Ibekwe went from 5 ppg and 4 rpg as a freshman to 8.5 and 6.3 as a soph.
Brandon Costner isn't much of an example to use since he missed all but 5 games as a true freshman due to an injury.
Kyle Visser went from 4.6 and 2.6 as a freshman to 3.2 and 1.5 as a soph

I'm not sure these three guys do anything to support you point.

[JasonEvans]

Ibekwe went from 5 ppg and 4 rpg as a freshman to 8.5 and 6.3 as a soph.
Brandon Costner isn't much of an example to use since he missed all but 5 games as a true freshman due to an injury.
Kyle Visser went from 4.6 and 2.6 as a freshman to 3.2 and 1.5 as a soph

I'm not sure these three guys do anything to support you point.

Damn you are hard to please Carlos. I took every single one of the top big men in the ACC last year and showed that with 2 notable exceptions they all were mediocre to meaningless as freshmen. How much more evidence do you want that it is not at all uncommon for big men to really blossom after a mediocre freshman campaign? There is some belief by many of the folks on this board that if a kid is not a star as a freshman, he will never be more than a warm body. I am using example after example to show that it not true.

Also, while you attempted to poo-poo some of my examples, you conveniently avoided talking about some of the others that do prove my point--

What about McCauley's move from 2.1 ppg and 1.1 rpg to 14.4 and 6.9 as a soph? Got an explanation for that which makes it impossible for LT and BZ to follow a similar pattern?
What about Mays moving from 4.3/3.4 to 9.2/7.6 as a soph?
And are you saying that Ibekwe's improvement to 8.5 ppg and 6.3 rpg is not a meaningful contribution?

If we get 8+ ppg and 6+ rpg out of LT next year and something fairly similar from BZ then Duke is going to be a strong Final Four contender. 14+ ppg and 11+ rpg from our "post" position next season would be fabulous when you consider how much we are going to get from our studs on the perimeter and from Singler at PF.

You and others seem to be acting like I am predicting a break-out, all-ACC season from our post players. Hey, I'd love to see it happen, but my only point is that it is far from uncommon for a post player to struggle as a freshman but then really turn into a solid contributor as a soph. For some reason, many of you seem convinced this never happens and will not happen for the highly regarded recruits Duke has brought in to play in the post lately.

I guess no matter how many examples I put out there, many will continue to believe Duke is doomed with Lance and Brian in the post. I hope not.

--Jason "We'll see who is right soon enough" Evans

[JasonEvans]

You know a guy whose career and numbers I could see Lance mimicking this year? John Smith.

John played far less than Lance as a freshman in 1985-86. He lived on my hall in Wannamaker and we hung out a little bit. I really never thought he would be more than a practice body for Duke.

But, as a soph, John was asked to do something sorta insane for a guy his size (6-7, 220)-- he was forced to play in the post, alongside Duke's stud PF Danny Ferry (and no one can tell me that Danny and Singler's games are not somewhat similar). I thought there was no way this would work when K tried it, but it seemed to go fairly well. John went from benchwarmer to starter and averaged 12 ppg that season. His rebounding was just so-so, but he did a nice job of drawing opposing big men out of the middle a bit and hitting baseline jumpers.

Now, I certainly think Lance has a different game than John Smith in many ways. Lance's defensive instincts and nose for the ball on rebounds inside seem far better to me than John did. John has better hands and better touch on his shot than Lance does... still, I could see their soph year stats and production being somewhat similar (perhaps not quite as much scoring from Lance, but for sure more rebounding).

--Jason "http://www.nmnathletics.com.edgesuite.net/pics29/400/WO/WODOLCGKPMSHGNG.20070119024154.jpg" Evans

[Krimson King]

recruiting mistakes were made in the backcourt as well as the frontcourt.

IMO, Sean Dockery underperformed his whole career when K could have gotten studs Jarret Jack or Anthony Roberson.

Dockery was a vastly overrated defender until his senior season when he was a solid defender. But what hurt more than anything was that he never provided a offense that was complimentary to JJ and that put pressure on JJ to put up big numbers every night. I dont recall Dockery ever creating much of anything for a PG.

Insert Jarret Jack or even Anthony Roberson and Duke becomes almost impossible to defend.

I don't blame the staff for recruiting Boateng or Shav. But to this day, I will never understand why we signed Jamal Boykin.

[mapei]

Big man who had a mediocre freshman year but has improved dramatically every year since: Roy Hibbert.

As most of y'all know, I root for Georgetown almost as hard as I root for Duke, and have season tickets. I was scared every time Roy touched the ball his freshman year. He was gangly, uncertain and slow just like Zoubek. He didn't even start, but came in to relieve Jeff Green, who played center his freshman year (and made Big East ROY doing so). Roy was a fouling and turnover machine.

By last year, Roy (as a junior) became a unanimous all-Big East first teamer on a team that dominated their conference and made the Final Four. Look for him to make some All-American teams this year and be drafted top 5 into the NBA.

Now, that's not saying that I don't have big doubts about Zoubs myself. I do. But Jason is right that big men sometimes do improve a lot over their college careers.

[jimsumner]

Brian Zoubek.

Aaron Gray.

Stranger things.

[JasonEvans]

Thanks Mapei and Jim--

Just to repeat something that bears repeating...

I am not saying Zoub or LT are locks to make "the leap" this year... I am not predicting that they will turn into Costner and McCauley this season... I am merely pointing out that it is not at all uncommon for big men to struggle as freshmen and then turn it on big time as sophs (or sometimes as juniors and occassionally as seniors-- like the Wake big man did last year).

Many, many folks in the Duke world are wringing their hands in fear over what we will do for an inside presence this year and I think we should at least consider the possibility that one (or both?!?!?!) of these highly regarded post players will blossom into someone who can really contribute this year. I like our odds a lot more with two potential solutions to our post needs than with one, that's for sure.

If we can just get a combined 35+ minutes and 14+ ppg with 8+ rpg out of BZ and LT then Duke is going to be very good this season. Last season Zoumas combined for 22 mpg, 7.1 ppg, and 4.7 rpg.

--Jason "I did not know this when I wrote it, but the numbers I cited (35, 14, and 8) were almost exactly what Duke got out of McJosh last season" Evans

[jimsumner]

Let's play a little Who Am I?

I'm a former ACC player.

I'm 6'10", 240 pounds.

I averaged 2.7 ppg and 1.7 rpg as a freshman.

I averaged 11.1 ppg and 7.0 rpg as a sophomore

I averaged 15.2 ppg and 9.1 rpg as a junior

I averaged 22.5 ppg and 9.8 rpg as a senior

I played 13 seasons in the NBA, averaging over 20 ppg two seasons and making one all-star game.

Virtually no one would have given me a chance to achieve any of the above after my freshman season. But I worked real hard, my coaches believed in me, and I just got better and better.

Who Am I?

[Carlos]

Jason - I'd be easier to please if the examples you're providing were more relevant to what I see as the problem for Duke in the upcoming year. Talking about Onion and Ferry is hardly analogous to what Duke faces next year because Ferry at 6-10/230 and Smith at 6-7/210 were better equipped to defend the post players they were facing than what Singler at 6-8/220 and Thomas at 6-8/220 are.

Take a look at the ACC and who Duke was facing then and who they will be facing now:

1987 Virginia: Andrew Kennedy 6-7/208, Tom Sheehey 6-8/215
2008 Virginia: Laurynas Mikalauskas 6-8/246, Tunji Soroye 6-11/252

1987 UNC: Dave Popson 6-9/195, Joe Wolf 6-10/222, JR Reid 6-9/240, Scott Williams 6-10/215
2008 UNC: The Mule 6-9/245, Alex Stepheson 6-9/235, Deon Thompson 6-8/240

1987 Maryland: Derrick Lewis 6-7/195, Dave Dickerson 6-6/200
2008 Maryland: Braxton Dupree 6-8/260, James Gist 6-9/235, Bambale Osby 6-8/250

1987 WFU: Alan Dickens 6-8/205, Sam Ivey 6-6/210, Ralph Kitley 6-10/215
2008 WFU: David Weaver 6-10/224 (wow... Wake's gonna suck this year

1987 Clemson: Horace Grant 6-8/190, Anthony Jenkins 6-7/200, Elden Campbell 6-10/210
2008 Clemson: Trevor Brooker 6-7/240, James Mays 6-9/230, Raymon Sykes 6-9/220

1987 GaTech: Tom Hammonds 6-8/220, Duane Ferrell 6-6/195, Antoine Ford 7-0/210, James Munlyn 6-11/200
2008 GaTech: Ra'Sean Dickey 6-10/250, Jeremis Smith 6-8/236, Gani Lawal 6-8/216, Alade Aminu 6-10/225

1987 NCSU: The Original Shack 6-9/215, Mike Giomi 6-9/230, Avie Lester 6-9/215,
2008 NCSU: McCauley 6-10/238, Costner 6-9/238, JJ Hickson 6-9/242

What should be clear from looking at this is that players today are on the average much stronger than their 1987 counterparts. So stating that in 1987 a 6-7/210 John Smith did a good job in the post doesn't exactly translate to next season. Against the best post players in the league Smith and Ferry were giving up only a little bit of weight. Singler and Thomas will be giving up 20 lbs. each almost every night.

Compounding that will be the fact that the game today is significantly more physical than it was 20 years ago. What used to be an offensive foul is now considered just establishing position.

Secondly, your list of big men who have improved from their freshman to sophomore years doesn't address Duke's situation for two reasons.

a) I don't believe Duke's problem is going to be on the offensive end. We're going to score points because we're going to have mismatches out the wazoo when we have the ball. (As an aside, that offensive mismatch will be really enhanced if either Lance Thomas can consistently make a 15-footer or if we can play Taylor King without giving up too much on the other end of the floor.) So looking at how a guy went from scoring 4.4 ppg as a freshman to 8 ppg as a sophomore doesn't really address how Duke is going to defend opposing post players.

b) All those players you're citing were guys who had the benefit of playing their natural position. McCauley is a post player who was playing the post and paired with Costner. Ibekewe was a PF and played that position with Travis Garrison manning the post.

Finally, you asked about James Mays' development between his freshman and his sophomore season, noting him going from a 4.3 ppg guy to a 9.2 ppg scorer. I'd respond with the fact that those stats are absurdly misleading. It's mildly misleading because in his freshman year the Tigers had Sharrod Ford getting the majority of the minutes in the frontcourt so Mays' ppg figures are somewhat deflated. But where citing Mays is really misleading is that those figures as a sophomore were generated over a whopping 11 games before he became academically ineligible. Bear in mind we're talking Clemson here with their notoriously lame early season schedule which meant that Mays' scored all those points against Bethune-Cookman, Coppin State, SC State, Charleston Southern, Penn State, South Carolina, Wofford, East Tenn. State, UPR-Mayaguez, Holy Cross, and Akron. So maybe those numbers would be a bit inflated.

[jimsumner]

Carlos,
Where did you get those measurements? More than a few seem to be skewed downwards.

Here's what the ACC Basketball Stat book says

Tom Sheehey 6'9", 233
Dave Popson 6'10", 210
Joe Wolf 6'10", 235
Horace Grant 6'10", 235
Antoine Ford 7'0, 226
Charles Shackelford 6'10", 222.

Maryland was in the post-Bias free fall in '87 and poor Bob Staak couldn't recruit his way out of a paper sack. But other than those teams, I think the 87 front courts were as big as and as good as the '08 front courts by and large.

I know I would take '87 Grant over anybody in this year's ACC with the possible exception of TH and '87 Hammonds would take anybody on this year's Georgia Tech front line and reduce them to tears.

Think our friends in Clemson wouldn't kill for Elden Campbell? Sheehey is much better than anybody on this year's Hoos front line and the Shackelford, Giomi, Chucky Brown 4/5 rotation was mighty impressive. And did I mention that UNC had FOUR players 6'9" or taller who would later play in the NBA? See that anywhere in this year's ACC?

The basic precept that players can be ordinary players as freshmen and great players down the line seems beyond discussion to me. I gave an example earlier in the thread and nobody has tried to guess that person.

There are other examples.

An ACC player who averages 2.2 ppg as a freshman is FF MOP as a sophomore.

An ACC player who averages 3.3 ppg as a freshman, 21.4 as a senior and goes on to a long, productive NBA career.

An ACC player who averages 2.2 ppg and 1.2 rpg as a freshman but starts and scores the winning basket in the NCAA title game as a sophomore.

Numerous other examples. Check out Alaa Abdelnaby's freshman stats (when he backed up John Smith, fwiw). First-round draft pick?

For your consideration. Since freshmen became eligible, nine ACC players have averaged less than 10 ppg as freshmen and then gone on to become ACC POYs. And seven of them were at least 6'8."

[dkbaseball]

Let's play a little Who Am I?

I'm a former ACC player.

I'm 6'10", 240 pounds.

I averaged 2.7 ppg and 1.7 rpg as a freshman.

I averaged 11.1 ppg and 7.0 rpg as a sophomore

I averaged 15.2 ppg and 9.1 rpg as a junior

I averaged 22.5 ppg and 9.8 rpg as a senior

I played 13 seasons in the NBA, averaging over 20 ppg two seasons and making one all-star game.


Virtually no one would have given me a chance to achieve any of the above after my freshman season. But I worked real hard, my coaches believed in me, and I just got better and better.


Who Am I?

Just picked up the thread. Tom Gugliotta.

[jimsumner]

Correct. Can anyone rationally claim that the freshman Tom Gugliotta was any better than the freshman Lance Thomas or the freshman Brian Zoubek?

Care to guess on any of the other fill-in-the-blanks?

[dkbaseball]

Carlos,
Where did you get those measurements? More than a few seem to be skewed downwards.

Here's what the ACC Basketball Stat book says

Tom Sheehey 6'9", 233
Dave Popson 6'10", 210
Joe Wolf 6'10", 235
Horace Grant 6'10", 235
Antoine Ford 7'0, 226
Charles Shackelford 6'10", 222.

Maryland was in the post-Bias free fall in '87 and poor Bob Staak couldn't recruit his way out of a paper sack. But other than those teams, I think the 87 front courts were as big as and as good as the '08 front courts by and large.

I know I would take '87 Grant over anybody in this year's ACC with the possible exception of TH and '87 Hammonds would take anybody on this year's Georgia Tech front line and reduce them to tears.

Think our friends in Clemson wouldn't kill for Elden Campbell? Sheehey is much better than anybody on this year's Hoos front line and the Shackelford, Giomi, Chucky Brown 4/5 rotation was mighty impressive. And did I mention that UNC had FOUR players 6'9" or taller who would later play in the NBA? See that anywhere in this year's ACC?

The basic precept that players can be ordinary players as freshmen and great players down the line seems beyond discussion to me. I gave an example earlier in the thread and nobody has tried to guess that person.

There are other examples.

An ACC player who averages 2.2 ppg as a freshman is FF MOP as a sophomore.

An ACC player who averages 3.3 ppg as a freshman, 21.4 as a senior and goes on to a long, productive NBA career.

An ACC player who averages 2.2 ppg and 1.2 rpg as a freshman but starts and scores the winning basket in the NCAA title game as a sophomore.

Numerous other examples. Check out Alaa Abdelnaby's freshman stats (when he backed up John Smith, fwiw). First-round draft pick?

For your consideration. Since freshmen became eligible, nine ACC players have averaged less than 10 ppg as freshmen and then gone on to become ACC POYs. And seven of them were at least 6'8."

Got to go to the gym before it closes, but is the last one Lorenzo Charles?

[jimsumner]

Yep, Lorenzo Charles. You know your State hoops. :)

[dkbaseball]

An ACC player who averages 2.2 ppg as a freshman is FF MOP as a sophomore.

An ACC player who averages 3.3 ppg as a freshman, 21.4 as a senior and goes on to a long, productive NBA career.


Donald Williams and Hubert Davis.

In answer to your question, Jim, about any rational argument for Gugs being a better freshman than Thomas or Zoubek -- Gugs was an unusual specimen, a guy who grew up learning perimeter skills and then had a late growth spurt. He just needed to get used to the new body, but once he did he had some nice skills already developed.

On Davis: I saw him play in high school and was quite underwhelmed. Crawford Palmer came out of Northern Virginia the same year, and I thought we had much the better prospect. Davis is a great example of how somebody can develop over four years in college.

[jimsumner]

Gugliotta did grow some in college. But his skills weren't good enough for him to get a sniff in high school from any of the powers. Valvano gave him a mercy scholarship because Gugs father had coached for years against Valvano's father and the families were friends. Nobody thought that Gugliotta would develop into anything more than a serviceable backup and even that wasn't a sure thing. He worked himself into an outstanding player.

[Carlos]

jim - measurements came courtesy of Charlie Board

I'm not debating the relative merits of the talents of the players in 1987 and today, merely that the game has gotten bigger - particularly in terms of strength. Hence, saying that we did fine (well, 9-5, third in the league, and a first round loss in the ACC Tournament if that's fine) because we did it before with Smith and Ferry ignores those changes.

Anecdotal evidence aside, do you really believe we won't struggle to defend the post this year? How many league games do you predict we will out rebound the opponent? How many games do you predict that we will be out rebounded by double digits?

[throatybeard]

Jason - I'd be easier to please if the examples you're providing were more relevant to what I see as the problem for Duke in the upcoming year. Talking about Onion and Ferry is hardly analogous to what Duke faces next year because Ferry at 6-10/230 and Smith at 6-7/210 were better equipped to defend the post players they were facing than what Singler at 6-8/220 and Thomas at 6-8/220 are.

Take a look at the ACC and who Duke was facing then and who they will be facing now:

1987 Virginia: Andrew Kennedy 6-7/208, Tom Sheehey 6-8/215
2008 Virginia: Laurynas Mikalauskas 6-8/246, Tunji Soroye 6-11/252

1987 UNC: Dave Popson 6-9/195, Joe Wolf 6-10/222, JR Reid 6-9/240, Scott Williams 6-10/215
2008 UNC: The Mule 6-9/245, Alex Stepheson 6-9/235, Deon Thompson 6-8/240

1987 Maryland: Derrick Lewis 6-7/195, Dave Dickerson 6-6/200
2008 Maryland: Braxton Dupree 6-8/260, James Gist 6-9/235, Bambale Osby 6-8/250

1987 WFU: Alan Dickens 6-8/205, Sam Ivey 6-6/210, Ralph Kitley 6-10/215
2008 WFU: David Weaver 6-10/224 (wow... Wake's gonna suck this year

1987 Clemson: Horace Grant 6-8/190, Anthony Jenkins 6-7/200, Elden Campbell 6-10/210
2008 Clemson: Trevor Brooker 6-7/240, James Mays 6-9/230, Raymon Sykes 6-9/220

1987 GaTech: Tom Hammonds 6-8/220, Duane Ferrell 6-6/195, Antoine Ford 7-0/210, James Munlyn 6-11/200
2008 GaTech: Ra'Sean Dickey 6-10/250, Jeremis Smith 6-8/236, Gani Lawal 6-8/216, Alade Aminu 6-10/225

1987 NCSU: The Original Shack 6-9/215, Mike Giomi 6-9/230, Avie Lester 6-9/215,
2008 NCSU: McCauley 6-10/238, Costner 6-9/238, JJ Hickson 6-9/242

What should be clear from looking at this is that players today are on the average much stronger than their 1987 counterparts. So stating that in 1987 a 6-7/210 John Smith did a good job in the post doesn't exactly translate to next season. Against the best post players in the league Smith and Ferry were giving up only a little bit of weight. Singler and Thomas will be giving up 20 lbs. each almost every night.

Compounding that will be the fact that the game today is significantly more physical than it was 20 years ago. What used to be an offensive foul is now considered just establishing position.

Secondly, your list of big men who have improved from their freshman to sophomore years doesn't address Duke's situation for two reasons.

a) I don't believe Duke's problem is going to be on the offensive end. We're going to score points because we're going to have mismatches out the wazoo when we have the ball. (As an aside, that offensive mismatch will be really enhanced if either Lance Thomas can consistently make a 15-footer or if we can play Taylor King without giving up too much on the other end of the floor.) So looking at how a guy went from scoring 4.4 ppg as a freshman to 8 ppg as a sophomore doesn't really address how Duke is going to defend opposing post players.

b) All those players you're citing were guys who had the benefit of playing their natural position. McCauley is a post player who was playing the post and paired with Costner. Ibekewe was a PF and played that position with Travis Garrison manning the post.

Finally, you asked about James Mays' development between his freshman and his sophomore season, noting him going from a 4.3 ppg guy to a 9.2 ppg scorer. I'd respond with the fact that those stats are absurdly misleading. It's mildly misleading because in his freshman year the Tigers had Sharrod Ford getting the majority of the minutes in the frontcourt so Mays' ppg figures are somewhat deflated. But where citing Mays is really misleading is that those figures as a sophomore were generated over a whopping 11 games before he became academically ineligible. Bear in mind we're talking Clemson here with their notoriously lame early season schedule which meant that Mays' scored all those points against Bethune-Cookman, Coppin State, SC State, Charleston Southern, Penn State, South Carolina, Wofford, East Tenn. State, UPR-Mayaguez, Holy Cross, and Akron. So maybe those numbers would be a bit inflated.

Thanks, Carlos, for making me feel old as crap. You've now convinced me that Stray Gator and Jim Sumner are younger than me.

I want to add that John Smith had the prettiest foul shot I've ever seen.

So are college freshmen Roiding, or is it antibiotics, or did no one in the 80s know that athletes could lift weights?

[jimsumner]

Carlos,

I've consistently said that I hope Duke can break even at the 5 and win games at the other four positions. Sure, we'll have trouble with Tyler but who won't? I think Duke can absolutely kick rear end with Singler, Nelson, Paulus, Henderson, Scheyer, McClure, et.al and just needs Zoubek and Thomas to hold the fort inside. Not conquer the plains just keep the barbarians from burning the city.

Secondly, the ACC's bigs just don't scare me that much. Tyler definitely and if either of the big sophs develops as expected, he could have a good sidekick. State has three good bigs. But other than that? I just don't see anything to keep me up at nights.

Sure, I'd rather Duke signed Patterson or Griffin or that McRoberts had come back--assuming with his head on straight. But K has a pretty good track record of working well with what he's got and he's got a lot this season.

I question some of CB's measurements. I flat out guarantee you that Horace Grant was bigger than that in 1987 and Tom Sheehey last saw 215 in the
10th grade. Nit-picking, perhaps. Probably.

The following isn't aimed at you. A few years ago,when guys like Deng and Livingston stared bailing early, the hue and cry went out through the Duke nation. "K needs to start recruiting four-year guys." K starts recruiting four-year guys and people start complaining that these guys aren't ready to dominate as freshmen. "Why did he waste a scholarship on fill-in-the-blank?" Duke has has more great seniors than anybody else over the last decade but most four-year guys are four-year guys because it's going to take them awhile.

Duke hoops history is full of guys who made big, even huge strides from their freshmen years. Some turned out to be great college players; Ferry, Laettner, Battier, and Shel had very modest freshman stats, although all showed signs of future dominance. But it took time. Look at the career arcs of guys like Alaa Abdelnaby, Mike Dunleavy, Daniel Ewing,Cherokee Parks, or Tony Lang, who just got better and better, year after year. Thomas Hill, Brian Davis, John Smith, Lee Melchionni, Marty Clark, Eric Meek. None of these guys looked like they would be significant contributors when they were freshmen. But all kept working, getting better, getting older and all contributed at a high level.

So I wonder why some members of the Duke community aren't willing to give Zoubek and Thomas the same opportunity.

[Carlos]

Throaty - I'll guess that in the 1980's someone knew that athletes could lift weights. But the focus on weight training - especially as it relates to basketball - has definitely increased since then. I remember back when I was a ute that we were advised to NOT lift weights during the basketball season because it would "ruin your shot." Presumably this warning was issued so that I wouldn't damage the peach baskets that we were shooting into during that era.

[ACCBBallFan]

Carlos,

I've consistently said that I hope Duke can break even at the 5 and win games at the other four positions. Sure, we'll have trouble with Tyler but who won't? I think Duke can absolutely kick rear end with Singler, Nelson, Paulus, Henderson, Scheyer, McClure, et.al and just needs Zoubek and Thomas to hold the fort inside. Not conquer the plains just keep the barbarians from burning the city.

Secondly, the ACC's bigs just don't scare me that much. Tyler definitely and if either of the big sophs develops as expected, he could have a good sidekick. State has three good bigs. But other than that? I just don't see anything to keep me up at nights. ...

So I wonder why some members of the Duke community aren't willing to give Zoubek and Thomas the same opportunity.Not much to add, as usual Jim nailed it.

[Indoor66]

Throaty - I'll guess that in the 1980's someone knew that athletes could lift weights. But the focus on weight training - especially as it relates to basketball - has definitely increased since then. I remember back when I was a ute that we were advised to NOT lift weights during the basketball season because it would "ruin your shot." Presumably this warning was issued so that I wouldn't damage the peach baskets that we were shooting into during that era.

Back in the dark ages when I started playing golf (Pre-Palmer), we were told not to play tennis or lift weights. It was said the muscle usage would inhibit development of a good golf swing.

Times and training change as knowledge advances. We each develop based on the info and "best thinking" available at the time.

[jimsumner]

Anybody else remember when drinking water during a practice was frowned upon? Talk about dark ages. And dangerous ages.

[captmojo]

Yummmmmmmm. Salt tablets and Atomic Balm.

[Carlos]

jim - the question of keeping the barbarians outside the door is pretty much the crux of the issue. I'd add Clemson into that list of teams with good interior games since they return two guys who averaged double figures from last year. I'd also be concerned about Maryland if Gist can get some help from Osby (who played very well against Duke last year) and Dupree.

You may not fear the inside players in the ACC, but the question is if a guy like Dickey from Tech could score 21 points on Duke last season when he was defended by McRoberts, what's he stand to do this season when the guy defending him is giving up 30 lbs.?

Now, maybe Zoubek will channel Aaron Gray. Or maybe our perimeter game can create enough trouble that it will be hard to even feed the post. Or maybe we will be able to use athleticism to double the post and recover against the perimeter players. Or maybe we can just outscore the world by shooting from the outside.

But the unavoidable fact here is that Duke is entering this season with the biggest roster gap in terms of position that they've seen since those teams of the late 1980's. There's a lot that Duke can do to mitigate that problem, but it ends up being a situation where Duke has to be exceptional in all other areas of the game to be very good overall.

[riverside6]

Word is Lance Thomas has bulked up and his channeling Nick Horvath (http://www.scacchoops.com/forms/tt_archived_player_page.asp?hArchivedHeader=913) in pickup games.

Seriously though, I think we will see a different Lance Thomas (http://www.scacchoops.com/forms/tt_player_page.asp?hPlayer=268) this season. Assuming he has increased his lower body strength, Thomas has a skillset not often seen at Duke in that he can force matchup problems with the opposition's defense.

Personally, I'd like to see Thomas work in the extended post similar to what Roshown McLeod (http://www.scacchoops.com/forms/tt_archived_player_page.asp?hArchivedHeader=1317) did in his senior season. This would allow Thomas to either shoot his 15 footer or use his explosive first step effectively.

Also, it might help if Thomas picks up more than 1 assist this next season!

[mapei]

One of the interesting things about Thomas to me is that I never realized he was as tall as he is. Just watching him last year, I never thought of him as a "big."

[ACCBBallFan]

jim - the question of keeping the barbarians outside the door is pretty much the crux of the issue. I'd add Clemson into that list of teams with good interior games since they return two guys who averaged double figures from last year. I'd also be concerned about Maryland if Gist can get some help from Osby (who played very well against Duke last year) and Dupree.

You may not fear the inside players in the ACC, but the question is if a guy like Dickey from Tech could score 21 points on Duke last season when he was defended by McRoberts, what's he stand to do this season when the guy defending him is giving up 30 lbs.?

Now, maybe Zoubek will channel Aaron Gray. Or maybe our perimeter game can create enough trouble that it will be hard to even feed the post. Or maybe we will be able to use athleticism to double the post and recover against the perimeter players. Or maybe we can just outscore the world by shooting from the outside.

But the unavoidable fact here is that Duke is entering this season with the biggest roster gap in terms of position that they've seen since those teams of the late 1980's. There's a lot that Duke can do to mitigate that problem, but it ends up being a situation where Duke has to be exceptional in all other areas of the game to be very good overall.

Probably should start a new thread but since I am replying will keep it here.

Subject of size keeps coming up, so I looked up all the ACC teams.

There’s not much chance of Duke winning many tug of wars with its size, but they should do well on the basketball court

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/roster?collegeId=150&sort=weight

14 David McClure F 6-6 200 Junior
21 DeMarcus Nelson G 6-4 200 Senior
15 Gerald Henderson G 6-4 215 Sophomore
42 Lance Thomas F 6-8 215 Sophomore
12 Kyle Singler F 6-8 220 Freshman
20 Taylor King F 6-6 230 Freshman
55 Brian Zoubek C 7-1 260

Clemson duo seems to have beefed up in off-season and are very good players, still not overly heavier than Singler and Lance nor much taller, but they can sky.

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/roster?collegeId=228&sort=weight

42 Julius Powell F 6-7 220 Junior
12 Raymond Sykes F-C 6-9 220 Junior
40 James Mays F 6-9 230 Senior
35 Trevor Booker F-C 6-7 240 Sophomore
55 Karolis Petrukonis C 6-11 260 Sophomore

though last year they were listed lower, comparably sized to Singler and Lance

http://clemson.rivals.com/cbroster.asp

35 Trevor BookerFFr.HS6-7/215
40 James MaysFJr.2V6-9/215

MD’s Osby is a senior who has not shown much, Neal is big but injury prone, Dupree is a freshman, and Gist of course is a very good player, though agai similarly sized to Singler and Lance and every bit or more athletic.

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/roster?collegeId=120&sort=weight

15 James Gist F 6-8 223 Senior
33 Dino Gregory F 6-7 235 Freshman
50 Bambale Osby F 6-8 250 Senior
35 Dave Neal F 6-7 255 Junior
04 Braxton Dupree C 6-8 260 Freshman

GA Tech has lots of size, but also needs a serviceable PG

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/roster?collegeId=59&sort=weight

31 Gani Lawal F 6-8 216 Freshman
34 Brad Sheehan F 6-11 220 Freshman
44 Alade Aminu F-C 6-10 225 Junior
35 Zach Peacock F 6-8 235 Sophomore
32 Jeremis Smith F 6-8 236 Senior
04 Ra'Sean Dickey F-C 6-10 250 Senior

FSU has a 7 footer Solomon Alabi who played well for Nigeria on U-19 plus Julian Vaughn who is deemed to play softly and Uche Echefu.

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/roster?collegeId=52&sort=weight

41 Uche Echefu F 6-9 225 Junior
33 Matt Zitani F 6-7 228 Senior
42 Ryan Reid F 6-9 230 Sophomore
32 Solomon Alabi C 7-1 237 Freshman
21 Julian Vaughn F 6-10 245 Freshman

Miami thanks to a change in red shirt rule gets Anthony king back to pair with Dwayne Collins, Jimmy Graham, Raymond Hicks and Brian Asbury but team is pretty much Jack McClinton and needs freshman PG Rios to hold his own.
.
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/roster?collegeId=2390&sort=weight

30 Adrian Thomas F 6-7 223 Sophomore
21 Dwayne Collins F-C 6-8 232 Sophomore
42 Raymond Hicks F 6-7 238 Senior
50 Anthony King F-C 6-9 242 Senior
00 Jimmy Graham F 6-8 245 Junior
45 Julian Gamble C 6-9 258 Freshman

Like Miami, VA has size but forwards are not all that good and offense will be all Sean Singletary

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/roster?collegeId=258&sort=weight

01 Will Harris G-F 6-6 230 Sophomore
55 Jerome Meyinsse F-C 6-8 230 Sophomore
12 Jamil Tucker F 6-8 230 Sophomore
34 Ryan Pettinella F-C 6-9 238 Senior
21 Tunji Soroye C 6-11 245 Senior
11 Laurynas Mikalauskas F 6-8 255 Junior

BC has size but Blair is more of a defensive player and Oates positions himself on the perimeter more than the post. Like Miami and UVA, BC is prettymuch a one man team with Tyrese Rice.

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/roster?collegeId=103&sort=weight

34 Shamari Spears F 6-6 238 Sophomore
44 Tyrelle Blair C 6-11 242 Senior
32 John Oates F 6-10 255 Senior
52 Josh Southern C 6-10 265 Freshman

VA tech and Wake will be light weights in ACC this year, smaller than Duke and worse on perimeter. Zoubek’s size could pose big problems for both of these teams:

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/roster?collegeId=259&sort=weight

15 Terrance Vinson F 6-8 215 Sophomore
40 A.D. Vassallo G-F 6-6 216 Junior
34 Cheick Diakite F 6-9 217 Junior
21 Lewis Witcher F 6-9 218 Sophomore
00 Jeff Allen F 6-7 220 Freshman

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/roster?collegeId=154&sort=weight

31 Jamie Skeen F 6-8 220 Sophomore
44 David Weaver F-C 6-10 224 Sophomore
52 Bobby Hoekstra F 6-7 225 Junior
13 Chas McFarland C 7-0 235 Sophomore

NC State and UNC are acknowledged as two biggest and best front courts but listed here for completeness

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/roster?collegeId=152&sort=weight

03 Brandon Costner F 6-9 238 Sophomore
34 Ben McCauley F-C 6-10 238 Junior
02 Simon Harris F 6-5 239 Junior
01 J.J. Hickson F-C 6-9 242 Freshman

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/roster?collegeId=153&sort=weight

40 Mike Copeland F 6-7 225 Junior
32 Alex Stepheson F 6-9 235 Sophomore
21 Deon Thompson F 6-8 240 Sophomore
13 Will Graves F 6-6 245 Freshman
50 Tyler Hansbrough F 6-9 245 Junior

[throatybeard]

I flat out guarantee you that Horace Grant was bigger than that in 1987 and Tom Sheehey last saw 215 in the
10th grade.

I'm tired of damn rivalries in sports and I'm tired of fan cliches about other schools and I'm too old to care about a lot of things.

But I think I might still hate Tom Sheehey.

[SilkyJ]

Word is Lance Thomas has bulked up and his channeling Nick Horvath (http://www.scacchoops.com/forms/tt_archived_player_page.asp?hArchivedHeader=913) in pickup games.

Seriously though, I think we will see a different Lance Thomas (http://www.scacchoops.com/forms/tt_player_page.asp?hPlayer=268) this season. Assuming he has increased his lower body strength, Thomas has a skillset not often seen at Duke in that he can force matchup problems with the opposition's defense.

Personally, I'd like to see Thomas work in the extended post similar to what Roshown McLeod (http://www.scacchoops.com/forms/tt_archived_player_page.asp?hArchivedHeader=1317) did in his senior season. This would allow Thomas to either shoot his 15 footer or use his explosive first step effectively.

Also, it might help if Thomas picks up more than 1 assist this next season!

He only gained 5lbs in the off seasons according to the goduke.com roster, which despite what people say, is pretty accurate.

('06/'07 roster) http://www.goduke.com/SportSelect.dbml?SPSID=22727&SPID=1845&DB_OEM_ID=4200&KEY=&Q_SEASON=2006

(07/08 roster)
http://www.goduke.com/SportSelect.dbml?SPSID=22727&SPID=1845&DB_OEM_ID=4200&KEY=&Q_SEASON=2007

I'm glad that he wants to be more physical. We will need that. I think lance has tremendous potential, and a great offensive game. His athleticism can translate into great D with K's help too. I saw him play early last year and commented to my buddy (he's the type of player who could be all-acc as a soph or junior, and no one would see it coming). Let's hope I was right.

Also, agree with riverside's other points...

[jimsumner]

Ah, Tom Sheehey. At one time, before ACC games players were introduced one at a time per team, i.e. a, b, a, b etc. The two players would shake hands at midcourt. Sheehey and Ferry "shook" hands with such ferocity before one Duke-Virginia game that they darn near knocked each other's shoulders out of their respective sockets. End of pre-game handshakes.

Sheehey, btw, was very interested in Duke. But he was a year behind Alarie and Bilas and Duke had Nessley in the truck and expected him to be a force. So Duke elected not to pursue Sheehey.

[throatybeard]

Ah, Tom Sheehey. At one time, before ACC games players were introduced one at a time per team, i.e. a, b, a, b etc. The two players would shake hands at midcourt. Sheehey and Ferry "shook" hands with such ferocity before one Duke-Virginia game that they darn near knocked each other's shoulders out of their respective sockets. End of pre-game handshakes.

Sheehey, btw, was very interested in Duke. But he was a year behind Alarie and Bilas and Duke had Nessley in the truck and expected him to be a force. So Duke elected not to pursue Sheehey.

I always wondered what happened to that practice. I Remember they also used to put the player's autograph below his name for some reason in that era.

Nessley was a force, insofar as force = mass x acceleration. That mass number was/is really big.

[JasonEvans]

Nessley was a force, insofar as force = mass x acceleration. That mass number was/is really big.

The fact that Marty Nessley made more money from the NBA than Chris Carrawell is just a crime.

--Jason "doesn't Nessley own a bar in Durham now, or something like that" Evans

[jimsumner]

Not just that but Nessley's classmate never played a second in the NBA. Guy by the name of Amaker.

I believe Nessley does own a restaurant/bar in the area. A little like Al Capone being a machine-gun distributor. They say that MN was on a first-name basis with every pizza-delivery person in Durham.

[throatybeard]

The fact that Marty Nessley made more money from the NBA than Chris Carrawell is just a crime.

"You can't teach height."

[wilson]

Not just that but Nessley's classmate never played a second in the NBA. Guy by the name of Amaker.

I believe Nessley does own a restaurant/bar in the area. A little like Al Capone being a machine-gun distributor. They say that MN was on a first-name basis with every pizza-delivery person in Durham.

According to dukeupdate.com, he owns a place called Sunset Grille, someplace in Durham.
Before that, he was essentially head bouncer at George's Garage (totally overrated) on Ninth Street.
Seriously.

[Carlos]

I've eaten in the Sunset Grille a few times. It's over near South Pointe and the food is pretty good for bar food.

[CY_devil]

Per Rivals:

Final 5 is Georgetown, LSU, Duke, Texas and UConn. Interestingly, only two official visits have been set up so far.

[The Gordog]

How many league games do you predict we will out rebound the opponent? How many games do you predict that we will be out rebounded by double digits?

Meaningless question. K's style of defence works to get takeaways before the shot and naturally leads to fewer rebounds.

[OldPhiKap]

I'm tired of damn rivalries in sports and I'm tired of fan cliches about other schools and I'm too old to care about a lot of things.

But I think I might still hate Tom Sheehey.

Somewhere, Dan Meager is laughing.

[OldPhiKap]

Not just that but Nessley's classmate never played a second in the NBA. Guy by the name of Amaker.

I believe Nessley does own a restaurant/bar in the area. A little like Al Capone being a machine-gun distributor. They say that MN was on a first-name basis with every pizza-delivery person in Durham.

Marty was in my same class and same major (poly sci). When he was in class, he ALWAYS sat in the front row. Pretty funny in a large lecture hall to have this huge seven footer wedged in a seat down low. And he always asked a lot of questions.

Hail the Puma!

[The Gordog]

Ah, Tom Sheehey. In 1986 when he was announced at pre-game the chant went up, "Meagher spit in your face! Meagher spit in your face!" What a classy bunch we were.