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View Full Version : Does Duke Have The Depth To Be A Final Four Team



CharlestonDave
02-11-2015, 01:34 AM
You can move this thread anywhere you like or keep it on its own. If you do move it, could you at least tell me where ?

I do not know the answer to my query and would depend on those on this Board who are much more knowledgable than I am to answer it.

Thank you.

AIRFORCEDUKIE
02-11-2015, 06:29 AM
Sure they do, most of Ks final four teams had an 8 man rotation. Its not like K has ever been a 10 or 11 man rotation guy, and if he is its only during the early season. Typically by March the rotation has condensed to about 8 guys which is what we have. This team has a really good chance to be a final four team. Now that can change depending on matchups and injuries. But as of this moment yes we have the depth to go deep into the tourney, even into the final four.

OldPhiKap
02-11-2015, 07:31 AM
We have the height, depth and width to make it. Just hope we have the time for this young team to rest and mature.

Part of the keys are Winslow and Matt, who can defend multiple positions. That hopefully gives us the flexibility to handle foul problems and tough match-up challenges. But our margin is a bit thinner than when we started the season.

Other than that -- it ain't over until we say it's over.

roywhite
02-11-2015, 07:40 AM
We have the height, depth and width to make it. Just hope we have the time for this young team to rest and mature.

Part of the keys are Winslow and Matt, who can defend multiple positions. That hopefully gives us the flexibility to handle foul problems and tough match-up challenges. But our margin is a bit thinner than when we started the season.

Other than that -- it ain't over until we say it's over.

Yeah, I think the youth and experience level is a larger obstacle than depth. Over half of the points and over half of the assists have been registered by freshmen. Offhand, I doubt that is true for other serious contenders. Duke can play at the highest level and beat anyone, but can they be consistent and navigate through 6 games?

CDu
02-11-2015, 07:42 AM
We won the 2001 title with essentially a 6.5 man rotation. And we have just recently beaten a top-5 team on the road and a top-20 caliber team (not really buying Notre Dame's top-10) by 30. So, yes, we have the depth to make the Final Four. It is all about matchups, and playing well in those matchups.

sagegrouse
02-11-2015, 08:37 AM
You can move this thread anywhere you like or keep it on its own. If you do move it, could you at least tell me where ?

I do not know the answer to my query and would depend on those on this Board who are much more knowledgeable than I am to answer it.

Thank you.

Yes, barring injuries.

K's not using all his ammo now. MP3 has earned more minutes than he got, e.g., against FSU for his energy, defensive play, and passing. By tournament time, Grayson looks like he'll be an asset .

Eight players is enough for two games per week. The stress will come in the ACC's, where we have to play three games in three days -- or, maybe four in four if somehow we don't get a bye to the quarterfinals.

flyingdutchdevil
02-11-2015, 08:45 AM
Yes, barring injuries.

K's not using all his ammo now. MP3 has earned more minutes than he got, e.g., against FSU for his energy, defensive play, and passing. By tournament time, Grayson looks like he'll be an asset .

Eight players is enough for two games per week. The stress will come in the ACC's, where we have to play three games in three days -- or, maybe four in four if somehow we don't get a bye to the quarterfinals.

Yeah...injuries would not be good.

With the 8 man rotation this team has, I'd say we're pretty solid. The depth chart is as follows (it's not what they can play, but rather what they have played):

Tyus: 1
Quinn: 1, 2
Grayson: 2, 3
Matt Jones: 2, 3
Justise Winslow: 3, 4
Amile Jefferson: 4
MP3: 4, 5
Jahlil Okafor: 5

Looking at this list, only Grayson and Matt really overlap. An injury to Grayson (God forbid) would be manageable, but every other player really fills out a major depth role on this team.

The versatility of Quinn, Jones, and Winslow ensure that depth is not an issue. Any of those players can play multiple roles and do.

OldPhiKap
02-11-2015, 08:55 AM
Yes, barring injuries.

K's not using all his ammo now. MP3 has earned more minutes than he got, e.g., against FSU for his energy, defensive play, and passing. By tournament time, Grayson looks like he'll be an asset .

Eight players is enough for two games per week. The stress will come in the ACC's, where we have to play three games in three days -- or, maybe four in four if somehow we don't get a bye to the quarterfinals.

I was having this discussion yesterday -- whether we are better off losing early in the ACCT and resting. I hate to lose, K hates to lose. etc. Given. But you could play three or four days in a row, and then be playing Thursday somewhere.

Did they move the ACCT back so it ends on Saturday this year though? That would militate against my concern.

luburch
02-11-2015, 09:08 AM
They certainly have the depth and the talent to make it to the Final Four, but really it all depends on matchups.

uh_no
02-11-2015, 09:49 AM
They certainly have the depth and the talent to make it to the Final Four, but really it all depends on matchups.

and which defense shows up to play....the one that held the top offense in the land to 7 points over 12 minutes (or whatever it was), or the one that gave up a 107 to FSU (among other games)

Troublemaker
02-11-2015, 10:00 AM
I was having this discussion yesterday -- whether we are better off losing early in the ACCT and resting. I hate to lose, K hates to lose. etc. Given. But you could play three or four days in a row, and then be playing Thursday somewhere.

Did they move the ACCT back so it ends on Saturday this year though? That would militate against my concern.

Yes, the ACC championship game is on Saturday.

Not too worried about 3 games in 3 days.

JasonEvans
02-11-2015, 10:38 AM
NCAA history is full of final Four teams that only played 6 or 7 guys in meaningful games. We actually have 8 who get minutes for us. Sorry to seem dismissive of the original post, but this is a pretty silly question to ask.

-Jason "that said, an injury would be really difficult for Duke to deal with this year" Evans

DevilWearsPrada
02-11-2015, 10:46 AM
They certainly have the depth and the talent to make it to the Final Four, but really it all depends on matchups.

And how the team plays on Offense and Defense! If this team, plays like they did vs the UVA (Jan 31 game), The Notre Dame (Feb 7 game) and the Louisville (Jan 17 game)..... they can go along way!

I am just looking to the NEXT PLAY.....which is Saturday evening at Syracuse!

7 more games in the season, and then the ACC tourney! Alot of basketball to be played! So much happens in February and March!

Let's Go Duke! One thing is a Given..........DUKE has the best COACH!

Tom B.
02-11-2015, 11:09 AM
We won the 2001 title with essentially a 6.5 man rotation.

It was more or less the same for 2009-10. By the end of the season, that team's big game lineup was basically Jon, Nolan, Kyle, Lance, and Zoub, plus Miles off the bench and, to a lesser extent, Mason and Andre in situational roles.

elvis14
02-11-2015, 11:16 AM
The obvious answer to the OP's question is "yes". I'm happy to see MP3 get minutes and prove to be effective and I'm happy to see Grayson Allen start to get meaningful minutes. Grayson looks to be getting more comfortable with every game. Having both of these guys ready to contribute in March might be important. You just don't know when we'll have guys in foul trouble or someone will have a bad night or we simply need to go big with MP3 and Jahlil to match up with a team.

NM Duke Fan
02-11-2015, 12:15 PM
I recall Coach K saying recently that we will need all 3 bench players to make a deep run. And I have been pleased to see Allen earn more minutes and grow in confidence and impact. Jones is a vital cog already, and Plumlee has recently showed just how valuable he is and how much he has already grown this year. So one key to me is Allen continuing his accelerated development since the recent roster alteration. And it looks good so far. With these 8 and with no major injuries, the depth of the team is really quite good. And so is the chemistry, which seems to be growing on offense and defense. Chemistry adds to depth when all parts seem to fit well and the sum of the largely inter-changeable parts is magnified. This team really pulls for the bench players, which adds to their confidence, and it is becoming a fist with 8 vital fingers!

jipops
02-11-2015, 12:17 PM
If they are able to put 5 players on the floor, then yes.

COYS
02-11-2015, 12:39 PM
So one key to me is Allen continuing his accelerated development since the recent roster alteration. And it looks good so far.


While I think Grayson probably won't see too much time in big games this season, one thing that might make a difference with Grayson is whether or not our lineup continues to skew towards small ball. With Amile playing around 20 min/game, Justise has been gobbling up some minutes as the nominal PF. In 2010, Andre still managed to grab a few minutes in huge games (Baylor!) in large part because he was the only perimeter sub. Grayson is not alone as the only guard on the bench. However, if Justise continues to play minutes as a PF, Grayson's opportunities for minutes, even in big games, could increase, slightly. At this moment, the small ball lineup requires every perimeter player except for Grayson to be on the court at the same time (Justise, Tyus, Quinn, and Matt). If we're in a situation where the small ball lineup is working really well but Matt, Quinn, or Tyus needs to sit either for rest or because of foul trouble, I think Grayson will play. His hustle is obvious when he's on the court. And I thought he looked very composed against FSU. He also has shown potential as a defender. His athleticism allows him to recover quickly even when he's been slightly out of position.

Again, I don't think Grayson will have many chances to play huge minutes in tough games, but it is certainly possible. At the very least, I think his play makes it likely that the staff will choose to replace one of Quinn, Matt, or Tyus with Grayson if we are playing a small ball lineup and the match-ups are working out in our favor. If Grayson is able to earn minutes in situations like that in big games, it will be a huge boost to our depth. Here's to hoping Grayson has an Andre-esque moment for the team before it's all said and done. Rather than a big shot, I'm going to hope for a big defensive play with Matt on the bench with 3 fouls in the first half of a Regional Final.

subzero02
02-11-2015, 12:47 PM
And how the team plays on Offense and Defense! If this team, plays like they did vs the UVA (Jan 31 game), The Notre Dame (Feb 7 game) and the Louisville (Jan 17 game)..... they can go along way!

I am just looking to the NEXT PLAY.....which is Saturday evening at Syracuse!

7 more games in the season, and then the ACC tourney! Alot of basketball to be played! So much happens in February and March!

Let's Go Duke! One thing is a Given..........DUKE has the best COACH!

Don't forget how they played at Wisconsin in the December 3rd game.

Kedsy
02-11-2015, 12:48 PM
Here are the number of players who played 10+ minutes in NCAA tournament games for Coach K's last five Final Four teams (excluding 25+ point blowouts):

2010: 7, 6, 8, 6, 5

2004: 7, 7, 7

2001: 7, 7, 7, 7, 7

1999: 7, 6, 7, 6

1994: 7, 6, 7, 6, 7, 7

So I agree with everyone who says our depth is fine for a deep NCAAT run.

NM Duke Fan
02-11-2015, 12:59 PM
Here are the number of players who played 10+ minutes in NCAA tournament games for Coach K's last five Final Four teams (excluding 25+ point blowouts):

2010: 7, 6, 8, 6, 5

2004: 7, 7, 7

2001: 7, 7, 7, 7, 7

1999: 7, 6, 7, 6

1994: 7, 6, 7, 6, 7, 7

So I agree with everyone who says our depth is fine for a deep NCAAT run.

Excellent data! 7 looks to be a very common number, and I have doubted that Grayson gets 10 minutes in most situations. But as the great post above spoke of, when there is a a lot of small ball being played due to matchups, Grayson will indeed be a very nice option to give someone a brief rest.

Olympic Fan
02-11-2015, 01:03 PM
Reminds me of the 1963 Loyola team. George Ireland had basically a seven-man team, but he lost his top two subs to academics at midseason, which left him with a very talented starting five and no bench. That was a problem for one of the fastest, uptempo teams in college basketball.

That team reached the Final Four against a great Duke team -- Heyman, Mullins, Buckley, Tison, Harrison -- and absolutely blitzed them 94-75 with Ireland's five starters going almost all the way (he put a couple of scrubs in at the end, but none scored). One night later (the Final Four was Friday night-Saturday night in that era), the Ramblers lost heartbreaker to Cincinnati in the title game.

I wonder if Loyola fans of that era were wondering if they were deep enough to make a Final Four run?

Sometimes depth requirements are a function of style of play -- Loyola was amazing because even with just five guys they played at a frantic pace. North Carolina won the national title in 1957 with five starters getting almost all the minutes. But that team played -- in the Final Four -- at a very sedate pace.

I think Kedsey provides pretty convincing evidence that eight guys are enough for Coach K.

An injury could be disastrous now, especially to a key player -- but that's true of even deeper teams.

mo.st.dukie
02-11-2015, 01:19 PM
Depth is highly overrated in college basketball. Most championship teams only go 7 or 8 deep. The season isn't super long, the games are only 40 minutes, you want your best players on the floor as much as possible.

flyingdutchdevil
02-11-2015, 01:29 PM
Depth is highly overrated in college basketball. Most championship teams only go 7 or 8 deep. The season isn't super long, the games are only 40 minutes, you want your best players on the floor as much as possible.

Seconded. The only time that depth is important is injuries or foul trouble, and we've had the fortunate luck to not experience much of either this year (knock on wood. twice).

These kids are 18-21 years old, ie they have insane energy. And it's not like in the NBA where you can play up to 5 games in a 7 day span (it happens).

I really like our depth this year, even if Grayson's minutes drop off (as I'm expecting they will). M Jones gives us a lot of options, and MP3 is a great back-up. But, at the end of the day, let's face it: as per mo.st.dukei, we want our best players out there as much as possible.

Wander
02-11-2015, 02:19 PM
I agree with the spirit of the responses here, with a big caveat... IF we stay healthy. Our 7 or 8 man rotation is perfectly fine, and definitely 7 and maybe all 8 are ready to contribute at a high level. However, I'm not sure this team could pull a Duke basketball 2001 or Ohio State football 2015 if an important player has to miss tournament games because of an injury or whatever. That's where depth matters, not in playing 10 guys in one game.

TruBlu
02-11-2015, 02:43 PM
I agree with the spirit of the responses here, with a big caveat... IF we stay healthy. Our 7 or 8 man rotation is perfectly fine, and definitely 7 and maybe all 8 are ready to contribute at a high level. However, I'm not sure this team could pull a Duke basketball 2001 or Ohio State football 2015 if an important player has to miss tournament games because of an injury or whatever. That's where depth matters, not in playing 10 guys in one game.

. . . and out of major foul trouble.

MCFinARL
02-11-2015, 02:51 PM
Yeah, I think the youth and experience level is a larger obstacle than depth. Over half of the points and over half of the assists have been registered by freshmen. Offhand, I doubt that is true for other serious contenders. Duke can play at the highest level and beat anyone, but can they be consistent and navigate through 6 games?

You are probably right that it is not true for others. But Kentucky comes close. Freshmen Towns, Booker, Ulis and Lyles are responsible for 41.8% of Kentucky's points and 45.3% of the assists, even though Cauley-Stein and the two Harrisons all play more minutes than any of the freshmen.

wilson
02-11-2015, 03:18 PM
. . . and out of major foul trouble.This. Let's be honest; if we're talking about a deep tournament run, then we're at least obliquely talking about our prospects of beating Kentucky. Given the size and "physicality" (good grief, do I hate that "word") of their front line, foul trouble is a major consideration. Remember the '04 Final Four...we outplayed UConn for about 38 minutes, but attrition kept us from finishing the deal. I fear exactly the same thing this year. Talent and skill, we've got in spades; as good or better than anybody. But against a team like Kentucky that actually does go really deep, especially down low, depth could become a concern.

jimsumner
02-11-2015, 03:48 PM
Reminds me of the 1963 Loyola team. George Ireland had basically a seven-man team, but he lost his top two subs to academics at midseason, which left him with a very talented starting five and no bench. That was a problem for one of the fastest, uptempo teams in college basketball.

That team reached the Final Four against a great Duke team -- Heyman, Mullins, Buckley, Tison, Harrison -- and absolutely blitzed them 94-75 with Ireland's five starters going almost all the way (he put a couple of scrubs in at the end, but none scored). One night later (the Final Four was Friday night-Saturday night in that era), the Ramblers lost heartbreaker to Cincinnati in the title game.

I wonder if Loyola fans of that era were wondering if they were deep enough to make a Final Four run?

Sometimes depth requirements are a function of style of play -- Loyola was amazing because even with just five guys they played at a frantic pace. North Carolina won the national title in 1957 with five starters getting almost all the minutes. But that team played -- in the Final Four -- at a very sedate pace.

I think Kedsey provides pretty convincing evidence that eight guys are enough for Coach K.

An injury could be disastrous now, especially to a key player -- but that's true of even deeper teams.

Um, Loyola not only defeated Cincinnati in the title game, they did it in overtime.

Other comments.

I understand the idea that losing early in the ACCT might pay dividends down the line. But all four of K's title teams played three games in the ACCT and all of the FF teams did except 1990 and 1994, which played twice.

I've always thought the 1994 Duke team was a great example of K's ability to move around a seven-player rotation. Parks, Lang, Hill, Capel, Collins, Clark, Meek. That was pretty much it. But most of these guys could play multiple positions, providing lots of options for a seven-player rotation.

Or look at Georgia Tech in 1990. Playing a fast-paced style, Bobby Cremins came a lot closer than did Duke at beating UNLV with a rotation of Dennis Scott, Kenny Anderson, Brian Oliver, Malcolm Mackey, Johnny McNeil and Karl Brown. Two great college players, one almost great college players and three guys who knew their roles.

One of my favorite teams fwiw.

So, I think eight is more than enough. Provided it's the right eight.

HaveFunExpectToWin
02-11-2015, 04:29 PM
Yes, the ACC championship game is on Saturday.

Not too worried about 3 games in 3 days.

I missed that schedule change. A Saturday championship game just feels wrong.

duketaylor
02-11-2015, 04:48 PM
My biggest concerns are FTs and bigs getting in foul trouble.

sagegrouse
02-11-2015, 05:37 PM
Reminds me of the 1963 Loyola team. George Ireland had basically a seven-man team, but he lost his top two subs to academics at midseason, which left him with a very talented starting five and no bench. That was a problem for one of the fastest, uptempo teams in college basketball.

That team reached the Final Four against a great Duke team -- Heyman, Mullins, Buckley, Tison, Harrison -- and absolutely blitzed them 94-75 with Ireland's five starters going almost all the way (he put a couple of scrubs in at the end, but none scored). One night later (the Final Four was Friday night-Saturday night in that era), the Ramblers lost heartbreaker to Cincinnati in the title game.

I wonder if Loyola fans of that era were wondering if they were deep enough to make a Final Four run?



Jim Sumner beat me to it!

Al, Chicago Loyola won that game [per Wikipedia]:


Loyola University Chicago, coached by George Ireland, won the national title with a 60-58 victory in the final game, over the University of Cincinnati, coached by Ed Jucker.

sagegrouse
02-11-2015, 05:41 PM
I understand the idea that losing early in the ACCT might pay dividends down the line. But all four of K's title teams played three games in the ACCT and all of the FF teams did except 1990 and 1994, which played twice.

.

Moreover, never in a million years would Mike Krzyzewski make that sacrifice. It has been Roy Williams who has pooh-poohed the ACC Tournament and possibly held out Ty Lawson from the ACC's in 2009.

Tom B.
02-12-2015, 01:21 PM
But all four of K's title teams played three games in the ACCT and all of the FF teams did except 1990 and 1994, which played twice.




Quibble -- the 1991 team actually played only two ACC Tournament games. Maryland was on probation that year and didn't play in the ACC Tournament, so Duke, as the #1 seed, got a bye in the quarterfinals. Otherwise, your point is well-taken.

Olympic Fan
02-12-2015, 02:35 PM
Um, Loyola not only defeated Cincinnati in the title game, they did it in overtime.


My bad ... of course Loyola ended Cincinnati's run. I don't know what I was thinking about.

Huge upset at the time -- Cincinnati had beaten Ohio State in the finals two years in a row. Playing in their third straight championship game, they were huge favorites.

I've always thought that 1963 title game was at least as racially significant as the more famous 1966 final. That one was all black Texas Western vs. all-white Kentucky.

But the '63 final actually featured more black players -- four Loyola starters and three Cincinnati starters. It was the first time that a majority of the starters in the title game were black. Adding to the racial significance of the tournament, Loyola had to face Mississippi State in the Sweet 16. Because of Loyola's racial makeup, a court in Mississippi issued an injunction to prevent MSU from playing in the tournament. Two previous Babe McCarthy teams had been blocked in similar fashion -- but this time, McCarthy snuck his team out of town and played Loyola.

The other interesting thing about the 1963 Final Four is that the Final Four MVP was Duke's Art Heyman, from the consolation game.

Seattle Hoo
02-12-2015, 03:03 PM
Your team absolutely has plenty of depth to be a Final Four team, barring injury. You have a post sub and a perimeter sub, and you have two guys who can play the point. That's all you need for depth. Before the Virginia game, I would have said you don't have the defense to be a Final Four team - like last year - but Krzyzewski made an excellent coaching move to go zone, and to use multiple zones against Virginia. What impressed me the most was that he was able to go zone in the middle of the season and so quickly have your team playing it well. That's not easy to do. He saved your season with that move, and I'm not sure many people saw him going zone. Before the ACC season started, I thought Duke was the best team in the conference and would be a Final Four team. Just before the Virginia game, watching Okafor play no defense whatsoever, I thought the lack of defense would kill Duke. Now I am reverting to my former opinion.

The question is does Duke have the consistency to be a Final Four team? The comeback against Virginia was impressive, and the Notre Dame first half was one of the most awe-inspiring performances I've ever seen (in any sport, ever), but you look at the GT and FSU games alternating with those two, and you have to wonder. Repeat that pattern on weekend one or two of the NCAAT, and very likely you're going home at the end of the weekend, because you won't be playing teams so adept at losing games as Georgia Tech and Florida State are.

I really, really, really hope Justin Anderson plays against Louisville, and that the ACC Final is a rematch of last year. Those are, IMO, the two clear best teams in the conference, and that would be a great basketball game.

Eakane
02-12-2015, 03:36 PM
Yes, the ACC championship game is on Saturday.

Not too worried about 3 games in 3 days.

Me neither. In terms of wining the ACCT, both teams are on short rest. In terms of it tiring us out for the NC2A's, remember that in our first game, we'll likely see a 16 or 15 seed, which SHOULD not require us being at our absolute best (I know; I know what happened in '12 and '14).

I am more concerned about the freshmen hitting the wall this month. So far so good; fingers crossed.

elvis14
02-12-2015, 05:02 PM
The question is does Duke have the consistency to be a Final Four team? The comeback against Virginia was impressive, and the Notre Dame first half was one of the most awe-inspiring performances I've ever seen (in any sport, ever), but you look at the GT and FSU games alternating with those two, and you have to wonder. Repeat that pattern on weekend one or two of the NCAAT, and very likely you're going home at the end of the weekend, because you won't be playing teams so adept at losing games as Georgia Tech and Florida State are.


I think Seattle Hoo has it just about right here. We have the talent and depth but we could use more consistency. Hopefully we get that over the next couple of weeks as we get ready for March madness!

NSDukeFan
02-12-2015, 07:56 PM
Depth is highly overrated in college basketball. Most championship teams only go 7 or 8 deep. The season isn't super long, the games are only 40 minutes, you want your best players on the floor as much as possible.

I agree and would add that television adds rest for everyone as well, limiting how much depth you need for rest for fit 18-22 year olds.

-jk
02-12-2015, 08:01 PM
I agree and would add that television adds rest for everyone as well, limiting how much depth you need for rest for fit 18-22 year olds.

And the ads are longer in the tourney, and halftime is 20 minutes rather than 15.

It's more about staying healthy and out out of foul trouble.

-jk