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JasonEvans
02-03-2015, 10:51 AM
Yea, three high schools and all kinds of discussion about reclassifying or not. Those are red flags for me. I hope that his legal guardian has his best interests in mind. I could see him going the Mudiay route though.

Super "Slippery Slope!" Dave

Hopefully, the NBA will come to its senses and implement a smart rule that will allow kids to declare out of high school or commit to being in college for at least 2 or 3 seasons. That rule is coming... and it cannot get here soon enough for my taste.

-Jason "Calipari's model will be torched with that rule... I can't wait!" Evans

superdave
02-03-2015, 11:55 AM
Hopefully, the NBA will come to its senses and implement a smart rule that will allow kids to declare out of high school or commit to being in college for at least 2 or 3 seasons. That rule is coming... and it cannot get here soon enough for my taste.

-Jason "Calipari's model will be torched with that rule... I can't wait!" Evans

What about the D-League as a viable landing spot for kids who maybe cannot qualify for college but are not good enough to get drafted? I think that would be a better option than China/Europe.

gam7
02-03-2015, 12:21 PM
Hopefully, the NBA will come to its senses and implement a smart rule that will allow kids to declare out of high school or commit to being in college for at least 2 or 3 seasons. That rule is coming... and it cannot get here soon enough for my taste.

-Jason "Calipari's model will be torched with that rule... I can't wait!" Evans

I'm not sure the MLB model is what's coming. Here's an interview (http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nba/2014/02/13/adam-silver-commissioner-qa-age-limit/5458701/)from a year ago where Silver explains the rationale for increasing the age limit (about 4/5 of the way down). His position basically is that the NBA product would be better if kids can get some seasoning (in particular, opportunity for leadership experience) before entering the league and teams have an opportunity to better evaluate talent with a larger sample size. I don't think the MLB model would achieve these objectives for the NBA - in fact, it might make the problem worse by encouraging lots of kids with potential to go pro straight away. If the NBA has its way, it will probably want to just tack a year on to the current rule.

Of course, this would be the product of negotiation, so any outcome (including the status quo) is possible, I suppose.

Duvall
02-03-2015, 12:22 PM
Hopefully, the NBA will come to its senses and implement a smart rule that will allow kids to declare out of high school or commit to being in college for at least 2 or 3 seasons. That rule is coming... and it cannot get here soon enough for my taste.

-Jason "Calipari's model will be torched with that rule... I can't wait!" Evans

NBA come to its senses? This is working out phenomenally well for them.

AIRFORCEDUKIE
02-03-2015, 01:06 PM
Hopefully, the NBA will come to its senses and implement a smart rule that will allow kids to declare out of high school or commit to being in college for at least 2 or 3 seasons. That rule is coming... and it cannot get here soon enough for my taste.

-Jason "Calipari's model will be torched with that rule... I can't wait!" Evans

Is there any indication that the NBA has any interest in this kind of rule? I know it is good for College, but I am not sure that the NBA gives a hoot about what College hoops wants. Theres going to be some changes with the new tv deal and collective bargaining deal isn't until 2017. So unless the owners or the players union decide to change it, which they have no reason to any time soon we might as well get used to One and Dones being the norm. Also the Union is using this as a bargaining chip when negotiations start, the owners will have to give up something for a baseball type rule to take hold in the NBA. I really don't see the owners giving much up especially since they have so many organizations that are valued in the billions now. Whatever they are doing is working for them right now, so the players will have to strike, walk out, lock out, whatever it takes to get anything in the negotiations. I fear the one and done rule just isn't all that important to the NBA for them to care enough.

I really hope I am wrong, as a baseball type draft would help the game tremendously. Imagine a player getting in the second round and him deciding, you know what thats not guaranteed money, I'm going to go to college and work on my game instead. Then he stays for three years with no runners or agents in his ear to go early and get his money. He will be a part of that program for three years or more. That would be ideal for college, the kids that can play or think they can play pro go ahead and go. Anyone else actually has to go to class and be student athletes, not just show up for a few semesters until basketball season is over and declare for the draft.

mo.st.dukie
02-03-2015, 01:17 PM
I don't think a rule like baseball's would be good for basketball, college or pro. First of all, baseball has an extensive minor league system in which all those guys that declare out of high school tend to spend several years. Also, it's not unusual for kids to get drafted in baseball and play another sport. Russell Wilson and Pat Connaughton are examples.

It would make college basketball a fringe sport just like college baseball is. CBB used to be HUGE back in the 80's because it had enormous talent and a lot of stars due to kids staying in school. At least with the way it is you still get that talent and star player in the form of a freshman.

The two most popular sports in America are NFL and college football. There are many reasons for that but one big reason is the 3 year rule.

The best thing for both the NBA and college basketball would be at least a 2 year rule if not a 3 year rule.

wavedukefan70s
02-03-2015, 02:26 PM
Hopefully, the NBA will come to its senses and implement a smart rule that will allow kids to declare out of high school or commit to being in college for at least 2 or 3 seasons. That rule is coming... and it cannot get here soon enough for my taste.

-Jason "Calipari's model will be torched with that rule... I can't wait!" Evans

I absolutely agree.the sooner the better.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
02-03-2015, 05:02 PM
NBA come to its senses? This is working out phenomenally well for them.

This is the point - there is ZERO incentive for the NBA to make any rule changes. The existing system allows NBA scouts to get a viable scout on players and markets players via college systems. No longer are NBA franchises wasting high picks on high school players that can't compete at a high level.

If the NBA makes a change, it won't be out of the kindness of their hearts; someone will have to find a reason it makes sense for the owners.

Orange&BlackSheep
02-03-2015, 05:40 PM
Hopefully, the NBA will come to its senses and implement a smart rule that will allow kids to declare out of high school or commit to being in college for at least 2 or 3 seasons. That rule is coming... and it cannot get here soon enough for my taste.

-Jason "Calipari's model will be torched with that rule... I can't wait!" Evans

it would be until Calipari takes an NBA job given this scenario?

O&B Sheep

Saratoga2
02-03-2015, 06:12 PM
Winslow sure looks like a lottery pick talent. Losing him will open a huge hole at the wing spot, one that Brandon Ingram would fill. He's a very different player, taller, longer, and more perimeter oriented from what I can tell. He seems like a great fit for the team, at least to me.

I don't see how the loss of Winslow has anything to do with Swanigan. He's a 4/5 type guy. Frankly, we're going to have some good options and depth up front next year (in theory). We'll have two seniors that can play significant minutes in Jefferson and Plumlee, a redshirt sophomore in Obi, and a freshman forward in Jeter. Now, if we are pushing Swanigan on the idea of opportunity during years 2, 3, or 4, we certainly have space for him after Jefferson and Plumlee graduate. A frontcourt of Jeter, Swanigan, and Obi is a nice rotation. Adding in a guy like Harry Giles in 2016-17 would make a very talented frontcourt (fingers crossed). I guess it all depends on how much Swanigan wants to be a featured post option his freshman year.

While there is little doubt Winslow has the physical talent to become an NBA player, he still has some things to work on. Whether it is better for him to do it at the college level or it is better to get his training as an NBA rookie is of course his decision. He is still young and the NBA is not such a great place for someone lacking in maturity, just because of his age. I guess you could say that for all early entries. At any rate, we have seen what Anderson of UVA achieved with his improvement in shooting and also on the free throw line. Justise could work with a shooting coach and bring his form along while having another year of college to mature. I for one hope that he does give it serious consideration. The NBA and the money will be there in his future in any case. As far as Tyus is concerned, his game is without a lot of holes, but he too would get a lot out of another year to mature. Whatever they decide, I wish them both well.

As far as our bigs are concerned, I am hoping Sean will be solid for us. MP3 will probably remain limited in his contribution while Amile will make a good captain. I have watched Chase in a high school game and it is my opinion that he needs to develop to become a valued inside player. But all this is for another year and I am happy to watch this years team as they continue through a good season.

Troublemaker
02-03-2015, 07:10 PM
While there is little doubt Winslow has the physical talent to become an NBA player, he still has some things to work on. Whether it is better for him to do it at the college level or it is better to get his training as an NBA rookie is of course his decision. He is still young and the NBA is not such a great place for someone lacking in maturity, just because of his age. I guess you could say that for all early entries. At any rate, we have seen what Anderson of UVA achieved with his improvement in shooting and also on the free throw line. Justise could work with a shooting coach and bring his form along while having another year of college to mature. I for one hope that he does give it serious consideration. The NBA and the money will be there in his future in any case. As far as Tyus is concerned, his game is without a lot of holes, but he too would get a lot out of another year to mature. Whatever they decide, I wish them both well.

The bold might not be true, though. Injury or regression / lack of improvement in Justise's sophomore year can cause a devastating slide. Think James Michael McAdoo. The logic of "the money will be there regardless" is probably only true for Jahlil out of our three freshmen. (Even if he suffered a season-ending injury, Jahlil would still be a top 3 pick; Oden and Embiid are examples that spring to mind about how injury-proof an extremely talented big man's draft stock is.) If Justise is late lottery as currently projected, he should go (unless his life priorities differ drastically from typical NBA prospects).

SCMatt33
02-03-2015, 07:42 PM
The NBA has all kinds of incentive to push through a "two and through" rule, and in fact, they are already well aware of this. They certainly don't need to "come to their senses" about it. David Stern advocated the rule for years, and Adam Silver has continued the charge. There are two problems. First, they will encounter resistance from the Players Association. The NBA will only see 30 new guaranteed contracts from rookies every year, and with the current system, a large number of these are "potential" guys who will either be spending time on the bench or out of the league (D-League or Europe depending on nationality) to mature. This gives more opportunity for veterans to stay relevant longer and make some more money as mentors at the back end of their career. Admittedly, this won't affect the vast majority of the NBA rank and file which is why the second problem is a big deal. It's a pretty small issue in terms of the CBA. When the lockout happened during the last negotiation, the owners and players were focused entirely on basketball related income to the point where squeezing it into the negotiation was unlikely to occur given the money being lost every day. This puts it in a weird category of being to big for the players to allow freely without some other concession in the CBA, but too small for contentious CBA talks. Likely this rule will happen during either a less contentious CBA renewal or get pushed through at a time when the union is particularly vulnerable to prevent bigger losses elsewhere.

Personally, I think that the NBA should explore something similar to MLS, where the top prospects are signed by the league before the draft, and are guaranteed money for college should they end up being a "bust." I'm not a huge follower of MLS so I could be wrong about some of the details, or they could have changed in the last few years. Anyway from an NBA perspective, The issue with guys coming straight out of high school isn't the "Kwame Brown" type. While Brown was certainly a bust from the standpoint of hype and draft position, he did play in over 600 NBA games over the course of 13 seasons. It's the Lenny Cooke's of the world that pose a problem to an MLB style rule. Baseball is a different animal because it is extremely rare for a player to even make the majors before he would have finished his junior year of college anyway, so the decision is merely about where you want to develop and whether you value money now plus the ability to train full time vs. no money but a college education to fall back on should you not make it. The NBA is a much riskier proposition for guys who aren't first round players because they could lose everything without every getting a chance to play NBA or College ball. An MLS type system would allow the league to limit the high school player and underclassman who try to enter the league, while also providing a guaranteed salary and educational backup should they unexpectedly fall in the draft or end up as a bust.

In terms of player development, for those who are first round talents and will get a multi-year guaranteed contract, I fail to see the argument for staying in college from a purely basketball standpoint. With twice as many games in the regular season, plus an extensive preseason and summer league schedule, not to mention the ability to focus on basketball 24/7, even a guy playing bench minutes can get more minutes of game action on the court than a college player. Even a guy riding the end of the bench can spend time in the D-league against guys who were mostly high level players in college. If you compare that to a college kid spending half his season playing outclassed teams in the non-conference schedule and league bottom-feeders, you get a much better opportunity to improve your game in the NBA. Everyone is obviously different. If a players issues fall more in the realm or leadership and maturity, those are things that a more structured college environment can better provide. College would also be better for someone who's weakness is so glaring as to keep him on the bench much more than he otherwise would have been (Jimmer Fredette's defense in college comes to mind). For Duke, Tyus is certainly the one who is likely to be drafted lowest, but from a basketball standpoint, the issues that NBA GM's would have in his game are likely best worked on in the NBA. At 6' 1", and not being noted as an uber-elite athlete, I'm sure there are questions about his ability to defend NBA point guards. That's a question that won't get answered sitting in a 2-3 zone every time one of the ACC elites roll in. That being said, it's not like he can't work on his game in college and maybe improve his draft stock a bit, and that also says nothing about kids who just want to stay in college, but if he knows he's a first round pick, and that's definitely an if, I would think that it would be a good decision for him to go.

Anyway, back to the original topic of the thread, if Tyus does leave, We'd seem to be short a primary ball handler for next year. My assumption before last week was that Sulaimon would take that role if needed, but with him gone, the remaining guys really being true off-guards, and no top 100 point guards left available in the 2015 class, I would think that Duke would be hot on the tail of any grad transfer point guard out there. Is there maybe a combo guard out there to recruit?

El_Diablo
02-03-2015, 08:50 PM
The NBA has all kinds of incentive to push through a "two and through" rule, and in fact, they are already well aware of this. They certainly don't need to "come to their senses" about it. David Stern advocated the rule for years, and Adam Silver has continued the charge.

But what exactly are their incentives to push it through? Maybe there is something I am missing, but once NBA teams have a chance to evaluate players and reap the benefits of the sports media hype machine for a full season, there does not seem to be much benefit in further delaying eligibility. Instead, I believe the commissioners' stance has been purely a negotiating ploy. Stern and Silver would be utter fools if they did not position themselves heading into a negotiation, and this gives them something easy to concede.

Ichabod Drain
02-04-2015, 08:14 AM
Hopefully, the NBA will come to its senses and implement a smart rule that will allow kids to declare out of high school or commit to being in college for at least 2 or 3 seasons. That rule is coming... and it cannot get here soon enough for my taste.

-Jason "Calipari's model will be torched with that rule... I can't wait!" Evans

I have a feeling John Calipari would be just fine with that rule and would make it work to his advantage as usual.

duke blue brewcrew
02-04-2015, 09:14 AM
I have a feeling John Calipari would be just fine with that rule and would make it work to his advantage as usual.

Calipari will always have World Wide Wess so he'll always have an advantage on the recruiting trail.

fgb
02-04-2015, 06:06 PM
As far as Tyus is concerned, his game is without a lot of holes, but he too would get a lot out of another year to mature. Whatever they decide, I wish them both well.

i love the guy's game, but i really feel like he would get eaten alive in the nba.

tyler ennis is i think a pretty fair comp as a player. who was actually better is debatable, but as i recall, ennis seemed more ready from a physical standpoint. and he is in the d league at the moment.

Des Esseintes
02-04-2015, 07:32 PM
i love the guy's game, but i really feel like he would get paid to play basketball in the nba.

tyler ennis is i think a pretty fair comp as a player. who was actually better is debatable, but as i recall, ennis seemed more ready from a physical standpoint. and he is in the d league at the moment collecting a million dollar salary.

Fixed it for you.

fgb
02-04-2015, 07:53 PM
Fixed it for you.

true. william avery also collected a million dollar salary for a few years.

mr. synellinden
02-04-2015, 07:57 PM
Fixed it for you.

You know - this raises an interesting question. The set salary scale for first round picks goes from $4.75 million to $940K. That's a significant disparity. If you are the 26th pick, which is where DraftExpress projects Tyus if he were to come out this year (http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-mock-draft/2015/), you make $990K. If you can work your way into the top 10, you're guaranteed at least $2M. So that's an interesting calculus that could eliminate the "one extra year of earning a salary" argument for going early. If Tyus thought by coming back he'd get into the lottery or better, it might make sense to play in college another year. Of course, the counter argument is the James Michael McAdoo scenario. But moving up 10 or 20 spots in the first round makes a big difference financially.

fgb
02-04-2015, 08:08 PM
You know - this raises an interesting question. The set salary scale for first round picks goes from $4.75 million to $940K. That's a significant disparity. If you are the 26th pick, which is where DraftExpress projects Tyus if he were to come out this year (http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-mock-draft/2015/), you make $990K. If you can work your way into the top 10, you're guaranteed at least $2M. So that's an interesting calculus that could eliminate the "one extra year of earning a salary" argument for going early. If Tyus thought by coming back he'd get into the lottery or better, it might make sense to play in college another year. Of course, the counter argument is the James Michael McAdoo scenario. But moving up 10 or 20 spots in the first round makes a big difference financially.

a second theory is that teams which pick in the second part of the draft are already really good teams, and late round talent will often have a difficult time breaking into the rotation. players picked in the first round--and especially the lottery--tend to be more talented players, going to lesser teams, and so the odds of significant playing time (and therefore significant development) are much higher.

(edit) and this i don't know, but i imagine greater playing time would greatly increase the odds of a player signing a second contract, either with the team that drafted him, or with another team; and second contracts tend to be worth a lot more than rookie contracts.

SCMatt33
02-04-2015, 09:28 PM
You know - this raises an interesting question. The set salary scale for first round picks goes from $4.75 million to $940K. That's a significant disparity. If you are the 26th pick, which is where DraftExpress projects Tyus if he were to come out this year (http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-mock-draft/2015/), you make $990K. If you can work your way into the top 10, you're guaranteed at least $2M. So that's an interesting calculus that could eliminate the "one extra year of earning a salary" argument for going early. If Tyus thought by coming back he'd get into the lottery or better, it might make sense to play in college another year. Of course, the counter argument is the James Michael McAdoo scenario. But moving up 10 or 20 spots in the first round makes a big difference financially.

I don't think that is really where Tyus is right now. Most of the guys who improve their stock, do so because they either didn't have enough exposure before (definitely not a worry for Tyus), or they weren't able to produce at the college level and feel that better production. The general scouting report on him from an NBA perspective is that his lack of size and speed (at least in terms of a 1st round point guard), will limit his ability to guard at the next level, a perception that really can't be fixed in college. I don't really see where he can improve his game at this level to make NBA scouts want him in a lottery position. Now, if there are uncertainties about being picked in the first round at all, that's a different story entirely as improving his defense could help him move up from the early second to mid to late first. It may not be fair, but unless you have otherworldly speed and shooting, 6-1 guys don't make the lottery too often (About once every 2-3 years from what I've seen). It wouldn't be impossible for him if he were to have a Kemba-esque run, but not necessarily worth the risk if he has a first round guarantee in hand. The real money doesn't come until free agency anyway. Either way, it's for Tyus to know and us to find out.

Troublemaker
02-04-2015, 10:37 PM
I don't think that is really where Tyus is right now. Most of the guys who improve their stock, do so because they either didn't have enough exposure before (definitely not a worry for Tyus), or they weren't able to produce at the college level

There's one more factor -- depth of the draft class. The 2015 NBA draft class almost certainly will be deeper than the 2016 NBA draft class simply because the high school class of 2014 (Okafor / Mudiay / Towns / Stanley Johnson / etc) is much more highly regarded than the high school class of 2015 (? / ? / ? / ? / etc). Once those guys depart the college scene, I could see Tyus making the move from end of first round to mid first round if he stays one more year.

Des Esseintes
02-05-2015, 01:04 PM
true. william avery also collected a million dollar salary for a few years.

William Avery is a great example for why a player *should* jump. William Avery, in retrospect, was not a lottery talent. Not close, really. But he declared for the draft at exactly the right time, got a guaranteed contract his talent did not warrant, and ended up with vastly more career income than he otherwise would've. Had Will Avery stayed in school, the holes in his game, which neither Duke coaching nor NBA coaching were ever able to close, would have been more evident to scouts, and he would have fallen in the draft. The imprimatur of that amazing '99 team and the potential of youth got him a terrific opportunity that would have been lost by staying in school. People like to say to athletes that the NBA will always be there. Yeah, it will. But the athlete might not.

As for Tyus, I hope he stays because I am a selfish fan. If he can improve 10+ spots in the draft by returning, staying might actually be good for him as well. However, if he's already a first-round grade and returning wouldn't move him up drastically, he is almost certainly better off declaring.

JasonEvans
02-05-2015, 01:10 PM
There's one more factor -- depth of the draft class. The 2015 NBA draft class almost certainly will be deeper than the 2016 NBA draft class simply because the high school class of 2014 (Okafor / Mudiay / Towns / Stanley Johnson / etc) is much more highly regarded than the high school class of 2015 (? / ? / ? / ? / etc). Once those guys depart the college scene, I could see Tyus making the move from end of first round to mid first round if he stays one more year.

I would also add that it is possible that some time in the next year the NBA goes to a 2-and-done model (I'm hearing a ton of talk about this from some folks I know who cover the NBA). When that happens, we will suddenly have a draft with no freshman stars in it and the stock of everyone who is a SO/JR/SR will skyrocket by at least 10 picks, maybe more.

And in regard to Tyus not being able to improve his stock very much, I would say that one of the questions about him at this point is his shooting/scoring ability. There may also be questions about how he runs a team without Jahzilla to bail out posessions. If he improved his shooting and showed he could make lesser players better, his stock could go waaay up.

--Jason "please stay, Tyus... please!!" Evans

Olympic Fan
02-05-2015, 01:37 PM
William Avery is a great example for why a player *should* jump. William Avery, in retrospect, was not a lottery talent. Not close, really. But he declared for the draft at exactly the right time, got a guaranteed contract his talent did not warrant, and ended up with vastly more career income than he otherwise would've. Had Will Avery stayed in school, the holes in his game, which neither Duke coaching nor NBA coaching were ever able to close, would have been more evident to scouts, and he would have fallen in the draft. The imprimatur of that amazing '99 team and the potential of youth got him a terrific opportunity that would have been lost by staying in school. People like to say to athletes that the NBA will always be there. Yeah, it will. But the athlete might not.

I couldn't disagree with you more about Avery -- and neither could Coach K. That's exactly why he got so angry at Avery and his decision -- he told Avery exactly what was going to happen -- that if he declared, he would be drafted high, get a good initial contract, then be out of the league when his initial contract ran out.

Avery was an NBA-level athlete when was in the midst of learning to play point guard. K understand that there is very little learning time in the NBA, at least after the preseason. When teams play 3-4 times a week, there is little real practice time ... what practices there are are basically walk-throughs. There is not the developmental work that Avery was undergoing at Duke. It weas a Catch 22 ... he needed playing time at the point to develop as a point, but because he wasn't ready to play point in the NBA, he never got that time.

K believed that if Avery had returned to Duke for his junior year, he would have had another year to develop as a playmaker ... more chance to mature ... and a chance to take on a larger burden of the team. He thought it would have given Avery a real chance to survive in the NBA.

Now the player who should have jumped early was Chris Burgess -- he's a top 5 pick out of high school (which you could do in those days). After his flaws were exposed in college, he couldn't get picked in the second round. Those are the ones who should go -- the bogus talents.

But the point several posters have made about the difference between being a high first round and a low first round pick is valid. I once attended a seminar with David Falk and he talked about the money Corey Maggette cost himself by coming out when he did. Maggette went No. 13 in the first round and got a good deal. But Falk had a graph to show what Maggette would have made had he returned to Duke for his sophomore season and improved his draft stock to the top 5 (a reasonable suggestion). Maggette would have made MUCH more money -- even with one less pro season -- under that scenario. Of course, Maggette played in the league a long time and made a lot of money, but he could have made more.

It's a fine balancing act. The really big money comes with your second contract and it's to your advantage to get in the league as soon as possible and get to that second deal as young as possible. On the other hand, to earn that big second contract, you've got to come in advanced enough to make a big impact.

There is another dimension -- some kids NEED the money. I know that family financial pressures helped push Shan Randolph into declaring early. Avery's mother was on disability (although she wanted him to return to Duke).

I don't know the family situation for Tyus Jones. I hope its strong enough to allow him to return to Duke for another year. He doesn't need so much as to develop as a point guard (he's as close to a natural PG as I've ever seen), but he does need time to develop physically ... and it would help if he could take over the leadership of a team (Cook is that leader now). If he returns, I could see Tyus becoming a sophomore team captain.

Li_Duke
02-05-2015, 01:51 PM
William Avery is a great example for why a player *should* jump. William Avery, in retrospect, was not a lottery talent. Not close, really. But he declared for the draft at exactly the right time, got a guaranteed contract his talent did not warrant, and ended up with vastly more career income than he otherwise would've. Had Will Avery stayed in school, the holes in his game, which neither Duke coaching nor NBA coaching were ever able to close, would have been more evident to scouts, and he would have fallen in the draft. The imprimatur of that amazing '99 team and the potential of youth got him a terrific opportunity that would have been lost by staying in school. People like to say to athletes that the NBA will always be there. Yeah, it will. But the athlete might not.

I question whether this is true. The 1999 draft was stocked with good point guards with 4 considered better than Avery: Steve Francis, Baron Davis, Andre Miller, and Jason Terry. It was also a pretty solid draft overall. Avery was very lucky to be drafted 14th (to a team that already had Terrell Brandon). The 2000 draft was terrible overall (Stromile Swift at #2, Darius Miles at #3, Marcus Fizer at #4) and at point guard (workout wonder Jamal Crawford, Kenyon Dooling, and no potential left Mateen Cleves went in the top 14). Another year at Duke (and Duke wouldn't have run out of steam against Florida) would have probably resulted in a top 10 pick and Avery being better equipped/positioned to pick up that 2nd contract.

(Olympic Fan beat me to the post. Don't workmates know not to interrupt me with questions when I'm posting!)

-jk
02-05-2015, 03:17 PM
It astonishes me the number of three and four-year players from Duke with borderline NBA talent that hang around in the NBA. I think K teaches intangibles - leadership, chemistry, and tenacity, for example - that help players overcome limits in native talent and from aging out.

I suspect learning those intangibles would have helped Avery beyond just the skills.

-jk

superdave
02-05-2015, 03:58 PM
Avery made $3,858,600 in the NBA plus whatever has has made overseas.

I'll take it.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/a/averywi01.html

Des Esseintes
02-05-2015, 07:19 PM
I couldn't disagree with you more about Avery -- and neither could Coach K. That's exactly why he got so angry at Avery and his decision -- he told Avery exactly what was going to happen -- that if he declared, he would be drafted high, get a good initial contract, then be out of the league when his initial contract ran out.

Avery was an NBA-level athlete when was in the midst of learning to play point guard. K understand that there is very little learning time in the NBA, at least after the preseason. When teams play 3-4 times a week, there is little real practice time ... what practices there are are basically walk-throughs. There is not the developmental work that Avery was undergoing at Duke. It weas a Catch 22 ... he needed playing time at the point to develop as a point, but because he wasn't ready to play point in the NBA, he never got that time.

K believed that if Avery had returned to Duke for his junior year, he would have had another year to develop as a playmaker ... more chance to mature ... and a chance to take on a larger burden of the team. He thought it would have given Avery a real chance to survive in the NBA.

Now the player who should have jumped early was Chris Burgess -- he's a top 5 pick out of high school (which you could do in those days). After his flaws were exposed in college, he couldn't get picked in the second round. Those are the ones who should go -- the bogus talents.

But the point several posters have made about the difference between being a high first round and a low first round pick is valid. I once attended a seminar with David Falk and he talked about the money Corey Maggette cost himself by coming out when he did. Maggette went No. 13 in the first round and got a good deal. But Falk had a graph to show what Maggette would have made had he returned to Duke for his sophomore season and improved his draft stock to the top 5 (a reasonable suggestion). Maggette would have made MUCH more money -- even with one less pro season -- under that scenario. Of course, Maggette played in the league a long time and made a lot of money, but he could have made more.

It's a fine balancing act. The really big money comes with your second contract and it's to your advantage to get in the league as soon as possible and get to that second deal as young as possible. On the other hand, to earn that big second contract, you've got to come in advanced enough to make a big impact.

There is another dimension -- some kids NEED the money. I know that family financial pressures helped push Shan Randolph into declaring early. Avery's mother was on disability (although she wanted him to return to Duke).

I don't know the family situation for Tyus Jones. I hope its strong enough to allow him to return to Duke for another year. He doesn't need so much as to develop as a point guard (he's as close to a natural PG as I've ever seen), but he does need time to develop physically ... and it would help if he could take over the leadership of a team (Cook is that leader now). If he returns, I could see Tyus becoming a sophomore team captain.
Respectfully, OF, I just disagree. There is vanishingly little evidence that players develop more in college. It sounds nice to say so--they get more games, practice is a steadier enterprise, the usual stuff about how college programs are families. But, of course, this myth runs up against the other myth about college ball, which is that the players are still students. And that myth has some real world consequences. Players have limits on their practice time; they have limits on their interactions with staff, both in and out of season. They have classes to take, which absorb a significant amount of time, especially at Duke. In the pros, no classes, no limitation on the amount of time you can spend improving, no limit on the number of assistant coaches. That last part is important, because even though NBA full-on practices are infrequent, developing players still get a *ton* of development time with coaches. A lottery pick is a huge investment on the part of the franchise, a multimillion dollar investment, and they treat them as such.

Where is the proof that time in college aids development? If that were true, upperclassmen would display a large advantage upon entering the league over their peers who bolted early. But we see quite the opposite trend. The best players in basketball are overwhelmingly players with 1 or 0 years of experience. For every Damian Lillard who stays four years and then becomes a next-level star, there are countless CJ McCollums, who exhaust college eligibility and have little room left to grow.

You say Avery was an "NBA level athlete" who just needed to properly learn point to assure his future. But what if he didn't? Sean Dockery played four years and never developed greatly as a point. Greg Paulus stayed four years and had point responsibilities stripped from him. Nolan Smith stayed four years and never developed NBA point skills. It's not even close to assured that Avery would have become a great point guard in college. And if he had stayed and *not* made a leap? Then his scouting grades plummet, and he never comes close to going #14 in a future draft.

Lots of guys come into the NBA without fully developed point games, and they learn them there. Mike Conley, for example, who was a professional disaster early on and yet became an absolute stud. Minnesota intends to do this with Zach Lavine. Quin Snyder and the Jazz franchise intends to do this with Dante Exum. In Atlanta, Schroeder didn't play much until he showed enough skill to help the team. A lack of practice time and court time haven't held him back. It's a canard players can't develop off the court in the NBA, a fiction college fans fall back on to justify wanting players to go against self-interest to stay in school. Avery fell out of the league because he lacked the talent to play at the highest level. A third year in college wasn't going to fix that. It would only have "fixed" his $3 million contract.

mr. synellinden
02-05-2015, 07:49 PM
Respectfully, OF, I just disagree. There is vanishingly little evidence that players develop more in college. It sounds nice to say so--they get more games, practice is a steadier enterprise, the usual stuff about how college programs are families. But, of course, this myth runs up against the other myth about college ball, which is that the players are still students. And that myth has some real world consequences. Players have limits on their practice time; they have limits on their interactions with staff, both in and out of season. They have classes to take, which absorb a significant amount of time, especially at Duke. In the pros, no classes, no limitation on the amount of time you can spend improving, no limit on the number of assistant coaches. That last part is important, because even though NBA full-on practices are infrequent, developing players still get a *ton* of development time with coaches. A lottery pick is a huge investment on the part of the franchise, a multimillion dollar investment, and they treat them as such.

Where is the proof that time in college aids development? If that were true, upperclassmen would display a large advantage upon entering the league over their peers who bolted early. But we see quite the opposite trend. The best players in basketball are overwhelmingly players with 1 or 0 years of experience. For every Damian Lillard who stays four years and then becomes a next-level star, there are countless CJ McCollums, who exhaust college eligibility and have little room left to grow.

You say Avery was an "NBA level athlete" who just needed to properly learn point to assure his future. But what if he didn't? Sean Dockery played four years and never developed greatly as a point. Greg Paulus stayed four years and had point responsibilities stripped from him. Nolan Smith stayed four years and never developed NBA point skills. It's not even close to assured that Avery would have become a great point guard in college. And if he had stayed and *not* made a leap? Then his scouting grades plummet, and he never comes close to going #14 in a future draft.

Lots of guys come into the NBA without fully developed point games, and they learn them there. Mike Conley, for example, who was a professional disaster early on and yet became an absolute stud. Minnesota intends to do this with Zach Lavine. Quin Snyder and the Jazz franchise intends to do this with Dante Exum. In Atlanta, Schroeder didn't play much until he showed enough skill to help the team. A lack of practice time and court time haven't held him back. It's a canard players can't develop off the court in the NBA, a fiction college fans fall back on to justify wanting players to go against self-interest to stay in school. Avery fell out of the league because he lacked the talent to play at the highest level. A third year in college wasn't going to fix that. It would only have "fixed" his $3 million contract.

You may be right, you may be wrong. Where do you think Lance Thomas would be if he left Duke after his freshman year? What about Miles Plumlee? For every example there's a counter example. There are many Lenny Cooke's and Jonathan Benders and there are many Adam Morrison's. No one path is going to be right for each player. But I do feel strongly that if there's one place where players will get better and be more prepared in terms of maturity and mental toughness, it's at Duke. Would Kyrie Irving be a better player today (forget about the money) - would he be a better all around player (including defensively) if he played a full season or more at Duke? I think he would.

Take Jahlil as example. In one of the other threads, someone noted that he always played zone in high school. He has never had to learn the skills and timing and instincts that are involved in playing the type of rotating man-to-man defense that Duke plays and is so critical in the NBA with all the screens and pick and roll plays. He is so good that he is going to succeed in the NBA no matter when he leaves. But I think he'd be a more complete player in 4 years if he spent more time at Duke. Same with Tyus. Look, Tim Duncan and Grant Hill played in college for 4 years. Both of them had pretty outstanding and very long careers in the NBA. And one of the things that set them both apart was their knowledge and understanding of the game on both sides of the court.

Dukehky
02-05-2015, 07:54 PM
You may be right, you may be wrong. Where do you think Lance Thomas would be if he left Duke after his freshman year? What about Miles Plumlee? For every example there's a counter example. There are many Lenny Cooke's and Jonathan Benders and there are many Adam Morrison's. No one path is going to be right for each player. But I do feel strongly that if there's one place where players will get better and be more prepared in terms of maturity and mental toughness, it's at Duke. Would Kyrie Irving be a better player today (forget about the money) - would he be a better all around player (including defensively) if he played a full season or more at Duke? I think he would.

Take Jahlil as example. In one of the other threads, someone noted that he always played zone in high school. He has never had to learn the skills and timing and instincts that are involved in playing the type of rotating man-to-man defense that Duke plays and is so critical in the NBA with all the screens and pick and roll plays. He is so good that he is going to succeed in the NBA no matter when he leaves. But I think he'd be a more complete player in 4 years if he spent more time at Duke. Same with Tyus. Look, Tim Duncan and Grant Hill played in college for 4 years. Both of them had pretty outstanding and very long careers in the NBA. And one of the things that set them both apart was their knowledge and understanding of the game on both sides of the court.

I love Jah and I think he may be the most talented player Duke has ever had, but he has not had much improvement defensively in the man to man system you're discussing and huge reason we switched to zone is to hide him defensively a little bit.

Players get better in the NBA and playing professionally. Austin Rivers would absolutely torch every player on our team and could probably eat Quinn Cook while he was on defense at this point. They just may not look as good in the NBA because it is a whole other level of game.

All in all I agree with Des Esseintes on this one. Just my opinion.

Des Esseintes
02-05-2015, 08:14 PM
You may be right, you may be wrong. Where do you think Lance Thomas would be if he left Duke after his freshman year? What about Miles Plumlee? For every example there's a counter example. There are many Lenny Cooke's and Jonathan Benders and there are many Adam Morrison's. No one path is going to be right for each player. But I do feel strongly that if there's one place where players will get better and be more prepared in terms of maturity and mental toughness, it's at Duke. Would Kyrie Irving be a better player today (forget about the money) - would he be a better all around player (including defensively) if he played a full season or more at Duke? I think he would.

Look, I'm not remotely arguing everyone should just declare for the draft after their freshman year. That would be asinine. Of COURSE Lance and Miles should have stayed in school. No one was drafting them early. It's a completely different situation than Avery, who went lottery.

I am also guessing Kyrie would not be better with four years at Duke. Why would he? He plays 82 games a year against Chris Paul, Dame Lillard, Stephen Curry, etc. I can at least understand the argument of people who say in college you get more practice and playing time versus riding the bench in the pros. But Kyrie has played a ton from Day One in Cleveland. Ridiculous to think he'd have been better off "honing" his game against whomever Wake and Georgia Tech were allowing to dribble the ball up court these past few years.

GGLC
02-05-2015, 09:09 PM
Excluded middle: he asked you about Kyrie playing another season, and you answered it as to Kyrie playing four seasons.

mr. synellinden
02-05-2015, 09:14 PM
Look, I'm not remotely arguing everyone should just declare for the draft after their freshman year. That would be asinine. Of COURSE Lance and Miles should have stayed in school. No one was drafting them early. It's a completely different situation than Avery, who went lottery.

I am also guessing Kyrie would not be better with four years at Duke. Why would he? He plays 82 games a year against Chris Paul, Dame Lillard, Stephen Curry, etc. I can at least understand the argument of people who say in college you get more practice and playing time versus riding the bench in the pros. But Kyrie has played a ton from Day One in Cleveland. Ridiculous to think he'd have been better off "honing" his game against whomever Wake and Georgia Tech were allowing to dribble the ball up court these past few years.

Wait. With respect to the first part of your post, it's a total straw man. I never said you were suggesting everyone should declare for the draft after their freshman year. I was specifically responding to this:

There is vanishingly little evidence that players develop more in college.

And I don't think that's true, even though I'm not quite sure what vanishingly little evidence means. I do think there is some evidence that players develop more in college. The problem is all the best players leave early and you never really can find out if one specific player would have been better off staying. Let's take Kyrie. He has been a very poor defensive player since he entered the league, although getting better this season. He probably didn't have to work too hard on defense in high school and played 11 games at Duke. Again, putting money aside, do you think Kyrie would be a better all-around NBA player today if he played one or more full seasons at Duke under Coach K and learned how to become a better defender? Because there is no evidence that he learned how to become a better defender in the NBA during his first three years in the league. When you talk about honing his game, we're not just talking about offense.

mr. synellinden
02-05-2015, 09:20 PM
I love Jah and I think he may be the most talented player Duke has ever had, but he has not had much improvement defensively in the man to man system you're discussing and huge reason we switched to zone is to hide him defensively a little bit.

Players get better in the NBA and playing professionally. Austin Rivers would absolutely torch every player on our team and could probably eat Quinn Cook while he was on defense at this point. They just may not look as good in the NBA because it is a whole other level of game.

All in all I agree with Des Esseintes on this one. Just my opinion.

Austin Rivers is another good example here. I think he's been a disappointment so far in the NBA. It was clear to a lot of people that he wasn't completely ready (offensively or defensively) after his freshman season to play in the NBA. How much has he developed in the NBA so far? Might he have developed more by playing another season for the guy who coaches the best NBA players to gold medals? I don't think Austin Rivers would torch any player on Duke's team this year because he's been in the NBA for the past two years. Rather, if he did, it would be because he'd be a senior with more experience, more physical development, and three extra years of letting his skills develop - regardless of whether it was in the NBA or college. Guys at that age almost always get better as they get older and have more game experience. The question is whether the NBA is a better place to develop.

fgb
02-05-2015, 10:02 PM
I love Jah and I think he may be the most talented player Duke has ever had, but he has not had much improvement defensively

it's possible that this is because he has known all along that he's leaving, and so is only investing in his own developement here short term? he's a smart guy, and that would be an arguably smart move.

yancem
02-05-2015, 10:10 PM
One issue that I don't think has been addressed is the length of career and size of the second contract. If a player goes too early (regardless of draft position) and isn't ready to contribute, they spend their first contract simply trying to get on the floor. In these instances, they either don't get a second contract or get a much smaller one. Austin Rivers is a great example. If he had stayed at Duke 1 more season, that would have been a free season of experience and development. He is currently in year 3 and just now showing he can be a role player (which is a position he might not be in if it wasn't for the fact that his dad is the coach). If he was showing this level of play in year 2, his chances at a big(ger) contract would be greatly improved.

Also, there is also several examples where coming back for an additional year has greatly improved players draft positions. JJ Redick and maybe Shelden Williams could have been first round picks after their junior years but came back for their senior years and became lottery picks. I would venture to guess that Redick might not still be in the league had he gone pro after his junior year. Now Williams didn't make it more than a few years, mainly because he never expanded his offensive game. Apparently 4 years in college and 5 years in the nba wasn't enough to develop more offensively.

Therein lies the rub. Some guys only develop so much, be it because of natural limitations or lack of effort. Do players develop better in the college or the nba? I would say that depends on the player. From a pure skill standpoint (shooting, dribbling, conditioning etc.) I would say that there are probably more resources and opportunities in the nba. But learning the leadership, confidence/swagger and teams aspects, players may be better staying in college. It can be very difficult to predict which path will work best for which players personally think that had Avery stuck around at Duke, he would have had a longer nba career. He may never of turned into a star or even a starter on a good team.

fgb
02-05-2015, 10:15 PM
It's a completely different situation than Avery, who went lottery..

no, he did not. he went just after.

which is not nothing: think about the lucrative "second contract" as a sort of resume. the best thing for a player like avery would have been to have been drafted by a truly crappy team, that had no choice but to play him. by virtue of that alone, he would have a shot at establishing himself as a legitimate nba pg, and set himself up for that second contract, and possibly (i think probably) a long nba career.

one debatable point--and here i disagree with you--is whether or not he was or wasn't an nba level athelete/talent. he was, as a pg, really raw. but he could shot the lights out, and was a jet with the ball. i, for one, loved the kid; i think he had talent, and grit, but lacked a bit of patience, like most nineteen year olds. i really believe that, given the right circumstance (meaning: we have no choice but to play you), he could have developed into an all star.

and as i recall, k was angry that he left. and i choose to think that that is because he loved the kid.

Dukehky
02-05-2015, 11:06 PM
it's possible that this is because he has known all along that he's leaving, and so is only investing in his own developement here short term? he's a smart guy, and that would be an arguably smart move.

He's gonna do whatever K and Co tell him to do. Also, the biggest knock on him coming out of high school was the belief that he was a liability defensively. So if he was focusing on his own development and getting the highest draft pick possible, he would be focusing (not suggesting he's not, I'm sure he's working hard) and showing substantial improvement on defense.

In my opinion, I think a lot of his 'ole" defense stems from his desire to stay out of foul trouble to stay on the floor. Personally, I am okay with this because I think that he more than makes up for his inferior defense on the offensive end, even when he isn't putting up huge numbers. That being said, I would love to see him at least appear to work harder on defense and maybe give a few fouls toward the end of games while trying to protect the rim if he isn't in foul trouble.


That is my feeling on Jah. WRT getting better in college vs. pros, I really don't understand how you can make the argument that you can improve more in college. I will grant that the year spent in college after high school goes a really long way in player development. High School straight to the pros is a move that I could never contemplate, you have to be a special person, with special work ethic, drive, and athleticism to succeed in that move. College helps make that transition easier, because you start to learn to balance time, you get taught how to work hard including in film study, the weight room because in hs these kids are so much more talented than the competition. But after your freshman year, if it's time to go, it's time to go. If you are prepared for the professional rigors of the sport and even if your not, then you will improve at basketball, but the former issue is what makes young players succeed in the pros. Comparing Lance Thomas to Kyrie Irving coming out after 1 year or Kevin Garnett coming out of high school is apples to oranges. The ceilings are different, the roles are different, the talent levels are monumentally different.

Let's look at Shavlick Randolph, he left after his junior year and it was a major surprise to all of us, I'm sure. Had he come back for his senior year, maybe he would have improved his draft stock (unlikely), but I guarantee you that if you compared basketball ability NBA Shav and Senior Shav in 2006, that NBA Shav would have been on a completely different level. As has been said before, you get to spend all your time on basketball and on development.

College helps a lot in personal development if a kid needs it and in getting the 2nd contract as has been mentioned before, but in terms of basketball abilities, the NBA and even the D League (if the program is invested in you) it's not even close.

Des Esseintes
02-06-2015, 12:27 AM
no, he did not. he went just after.

which is not nothing: think about the lucrative "second contract" as a sort of resume. the best thing for a player like avery would have been to have been drafted by a truly crappy team, that had no choice but to play him. by virtue of that alone, he would have a shot at establishing himself as a legitimate nba pg, and set himself up for that second contract, and possibly (i think probably) a long nba career.

one debatable point--and here i disagree with you--is whether or not he was or wasn't an nba level athelete/talent. he was, as a pg, really raw. but he could shot the lights out, and was a jet with the ball. i, for one, loved the kid; i think he had talent, and grit, but lacked a bit of patience, like most nineteen year olds. i really believe that, given the right circumstance (meaning: we have no choice but to play you), he could have developed into an all star.

and as i recall, k was angry that he left. and i choose to think that that is because he loved the kid.

I don't enjoy highlighting the flaws of Duke players, but this statement is laughable. Avery had one (http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/player/duke/william-avery) excellent season shooting the basketball. His sophomore year he hit 76 threes at a 41% clip. Excellent. His freshman season, though, he only shot 30%. As a pro? A disastrous (http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/a/averywi01.html) shooter. 29%, 27%, and--in his final year in Minnesota--17%. And you think another year at Duke could have made him an All-Star?

It's obvious what happened. On an absolutely stacked Duke team, with a low post behemoth in Brand a truly elite shooter in Langdon and quality scoring everywhere else, Avery was taking and making a lot of open threes. He probably got a little lucky on his percentages his sophomore year, as well. Three % has a tendency to vary pretty widely year to year. Then he got to the Association, there were no more wide open looks, and he struggled with NBA distance.

And that's ok. Not everyone is an NBA talent, and not every Duke player can stick at that supreme level, no matter how many seasons they play in Durham.

mr. synellinden
02-06-2015, 12:40 AM
I really don't understand how you can make the argument that you can improve more in college. I will grant that the year spent in college after high school goes a really long way in player development. High School straight to the pros is a move that I could never contemplate, you have to be a special person, with special work ethic, drive, and athleticism to succeed in that move. College helps make that transition easier, because you start to learn to balance time, you get taught how to work hard including in film study, the weight room because in hs these kids are so much more talented than the competition. But after your freshman year, if it's time to go, it's time to go. If you are prepared for the professional rigors of the sport and even if your not, then you will improve at basketball, but the former issue is what makes young players succeed in the pros. Comparing Lance Thomas to Kyrie Irving coming out after 1 year or Kevin Garnett coming out of high school is apples to oranges. The ceilings are different, the roles are different, the talent levels are monumentally different.


Everything that comes after your first sentence in this paragraph argues directly against the first sentence.

Des Esseintes
02-06-2015, 12:54 AM
Wait. With respect to the first part of your post, it's a total straw man. I never said you were suggesting everyone should declare for the draft after their freshman year. I was specifically responding to this:

There is vanishingly little evidence that players develop more in college.

And I don't think that's true, even though I'm not quite sure what vanishingly little evidence means. I do think there is some evidence that players develop more in college. The problem is all the best players leave early and you never really can find out if one specific player would have been better off staying. Let's take Kyrie. He has been a very poor defensive player since he entered the league, although getting better this season. He probably didn't have to work too hard on defense in high school and played 11 games at Duke. Again, putting money aside, do you think Kyrie would be a better all-around NBA player today if he played one or more full seasons at Duke under Coach K and learned how to become a better defender? Because there is no evidence that he learned how to become a better defender in the NBA during his first three years in the league. When you talk about honing his game, we're not just talking about offense.
There's a lot to say here.

1. College basketball is a completely different beast from NBA basketball. College ball features waaaay more zone than NBA ball. That has poses multiple problems for NBA prep. If your team plays lots of zone, those are concepts that will barely be used at the next level. I remember reading an interview with a scout from last year in which he said that with Syracuse kids, you have to teach them *everything* on the defensive end. Most programs in D1 incorporate zone heavily these days, so when an athlete is learning zone, he's learning a borderline useless NBA skill

1a. Even if your team doesn't play a lot of zone, like Duke in previous years, you still have to play everyone else. Which means you prepare for playing offense *against* zones. Which, again, is a borderline useless NBA skill.

2. I don't think Kyrie will ever be a good defender. K couldn't make him one. No one in the pros has yet managed it. He's had a year plus a national team experience with K. He's had Tom Thibodeau on the national team. He's had Mike Brown, who is a bad coach but at least defensively solid. He's had Byron Scott, who is a bad coach but at least helped Chris Paul's development. Kyrie's problem is not a lack of coaching. He's a bad defender, probably because of a fundamental inability to see the defensive floor properly, near as I can tell from listening to smart observers.

3. Jabari Parker was pilloried last year, with some justice, for his defensive shortcomings. This season he was widely acknowledged as at minimum defensively adequate for the Bucks prior to his injury. You could make the argument that he made more defensive progress in his brief time in the NBA than he did all freshman season at Duke. I would guess that the reasons for that are complicated, but facts are facts. Jabari made a defensive leap *after* leaving Duke.

4. You brought up Miles Plumlee earlier. When Miles was drafted, it looked like a bad, cynical reach on the Pacers' part, an effort to sell tickets by bringing in a local boy made good. And his rookie year, he did not look as though he belonged. On a team with a wretched bench that could badly have used some effective athleticism behind Hibbert, he couldn't get in games. Then h gets traded to Phoenix. Aided by an injury to Alex Len, Miles plays well enough to lock down the starting role on a team that wins 47 games in the West. That development, from unplayable bench fixture to decent good-team starter? That development happened after graduation and off camera. He got better working with assistant coaches and drilling constantly to get better. That's an option college players just don't have, and Miles took full advantage of it. He was absolutely right to stay four years in school; he'd never have been drafted otherwise. But he is also an example of prodigious growth away from college ball.

5. What's really the argument for why players develop better in college? In what industry on earth is the instruction and coaching worse at the topmost level than at lower levels? In baseball, if you're an amazing pitching coach in the minors, you become a pitching coach in the Show. I mean, I think it's a matter of faith around here that when a player leaves his high school program and enters Duke, we believe his play will get a boost from an infusion of superior coaching. Why wouldn't we assume that to be the case when he takes his talents to the *next* level, where there are more resources and no academic demands? K is the GOAT or in the top two for GOAT in college basketball, and I don't want to act as though that isn't of tremendous value. But improvement is about more than the genius of the head coach. It's about the ability level of assistant coaches. (We have great assistants, but take a look (http://www.nba.com/warriors/roster) at the Golden State Warriors bench. Alvin Gentry and Ron Adams as your offensive and defensive gurus--that's simply insane.) It's about resources. It's about--and this part is HUGE--the quality of players you contend against. In college, only a small number of guys have the talent to play in the NBA. In the NBA, you know, everyone does, basically. Night and day, and college shouldn't apologize for being at a lower tier. It fills a vital role. We just shouldn't confuse playing a vital role with playing the predominant role, because that is not true.

Dukehky
02-06-2015, 10:10 AM
Everything that comes after your first sentence in this paragraph argues directly against the first sentence.

Then you didn't read the rest of it. My point was that college serves a vital purpose for many kids; however, the basketball improvement portion of development is far, far better in the NBA than in college.

Li_Duke
02-06-2015, 10:33 AM
I'm going to go through and use a different take on all your examples. If they had left one or two years earlier, how would they have fared?

1. Kyrie Irving - Approximately same result either way.
2. Jabari Parker - Also approximately same result either way.



4. You brought up Miles Plumlee earlier. When Miles was drafted, it looked like a bad, cynical reach on the Pacers' part, an effort to sell tickets by bringing in a local boy made good. And his rookie year, he did not look as though he belonged. On a team with a wretched bench that could badly have used some effective athleticism behind Hibbert, he couldn't get in games. Then h gets traded to Phoenix. Aided by an injury to Alex Len, Miles plays well enough to lock down the starting role on a team that wins 47 games in the West. That development, from unplayable bench fixture to decent good-team starter? That development happened after graduation and off camera. He got better working with assistant coaches and drilling constantly to get better. That's an option college players just don't have, and Miles took full advantage of it. He was absolutely right to stay four years in school; he'd never have been drafted otherwise. But he is also an example of prodigious growth away from college ball.


3. Miles Plumlee - He wasn't suppose to be drafted after his senior year either. However, his athletic ability and great workouts led to Indiana reaching for him. I would think if he was younger, he'd have been drafted at nearly the same spot because the athletic ability was still there (plus young=potential). However, I think he would have sat on the bench for longer than 1 year once he got to the pros. Now that he's proven that he can be a rotation big, he'll get that 2nd contract. But if he had gone a couple years earlier? I don't think he would have shown enough to get that 2nd contract.

Now adding some other examples.
4. Mason Plumlee - he could have gone right after his freshman year. But he was very raw and would have taken awhile to develop his confidence offensively. He might not have shown enough to get the 2nd contract.
5. Lance Thomas - He went undrafted his senior year and would have been undrafted if he left 1-2 years early too. After a few years in the pros, he's still offensively challenged, but if he had left earlier, he would be even more so (at least he figured out how to make open jumpers by his senior year) and wouldn't have the defensive savvy to have been called up.
6. Austin Rivers - If his dad wasn't Doc Rivers, there's a good chance he wouldn't be getting a 2nd contract. After all, Boston waived him (and they aren't a good team and have few guards). But if he had stayed a few years? He might have developed enough for Boston to keep him.
7. Ryan Kelly - He's going to get that 2nd contract. But if he had left 2 years earlier? I'm not so sure.
8. Kyle Singler - He would have gone higher if he left earlier, and I'm pretty sure he'd get that 2nd contract either way.
9. Nolan Smith - Personally I think his personal life (step-dad going to jail) got in the way of his game after college. Otherwise I think he'd be on his 2nd contract right now.

In summary, I'll say that for the stars - the Kyrie Irvings, Jabari Parker, and Okafor - they should go pro early. The clubs invest heavily in them. They get playing time and lots of development. The fringe NBA players (which Avery was) are best off staying until they've developed at least one surefire NBA skill (usually defense). Otherwise, it's even more of a crapshoot - some teams focus on developing all their young players, other teams you're expected to either sink or swim. You have to have some measure of maturity and resilience (if drafted to not go crazy once you get money and to keep working hard; if undrafted, to keep working to still make it to the pros). Those extra years of college really help with that.

yancem
02-06-2015, 10:46 AM
In summary, I'll say that for the stars - the Kyrie Irvings, Jabari Parker, and Okafor - they should go pro early. The clubs invest heavily in them. They get playing time and lots of development. The fringe NBA players (which Avery was) are best off staying until they've developed at least one surefire NBA skill (usually defense). Otherwise, it's even more of a crapshoot - some teams focus on developing all their young players, other teams you're expected to either sink or swim. You have to have some measure of maturity and resilience (if drafted to not go crazy once you get money and to keep working hard; if undrafted, to keep working to still make it to the pros). Those extra years of college really help with that.

I think that this is probably the biggest key. Everyone talks about how much more time players have to work on their game in the nba but if you don't have the maturity or work ethic, more time and resources aren't worth much. I'm betting that in the nba, besides normal practices and games, the rest is on you. I'm sure the assistant coaches, strength coaches and other personnel are all at your disposal but if you don't approach them and ask for their help, then you miss out. You're 19-21 mostly alone for the first time in your life and have more money than you need. You can sleep in, play video games and go out at night. No one is holding your hand or watching over your shoulder like in college. It's all on you. Now for many guys, that's fine. They have their eye on the prize and have the maturity to stay out of the pit falls. But others, could use a year or two more to mature and develop better habits. Talent and physical gifts are only side of the equation.

Matches
02-06-2015, 10:48 AM
Is there anyone seriously suggesting that Lance Thomas should have gone pro early? I don't see anyone advancing that idea. Using him as an example IMO really muddies the issue - going pro early was not a realistic option for him. (Or for Miles Plumlee, FWIW.)

Will Avery was a bad NBA player in his third year, just like he was in his first. Would he have been more combat-ready upon arrival in the league if he spent an additional year at Duke? Of course that's un-knowable, and every player is different. It often seems to be taken as a given that Avery made the wrong choice, though, and that's not at all obvious. Dude with questionable-at-best NBA talent made 4 million dollars and very likely maximized his draft potential. (Even if he'd moved up a little in the 2000 draft the year of lost income probably would have made that move counter-productive financially.)

The notion that players don't improve once they get to the NBA, don't get coaching, don't practice etc. is a myth, and one easily disproven by many of our alums (JJ, Lance, Miles, McRoberts, Henderson, just to name a few) who got a LOT better after reaching the NBA.

MChambers
02-06-2015, 11:41 AM
I think that this is probably the biggest key. Everyone talks about how much more time players have to work on their game in the nba but if you don't have the maturity or work ethic, more time and resources aren't worth much. I'm betting that in the nba, besides normal practices and games, the rest is on you. I'm sure the assistant coaches, strength coaches and other personnel are all at your disposal but if you don't approach them and ask for their help, then you miss out. You're 19-21 mostly alone for the first time in your life and have more money than you need. You can sleep in, play video games and go out at night. No one is holding your hand or watching over your shoulder like in college. It's all on you. Now for many guys, that's fine. They have their eye on the prize and have the maturity to stay out of the pit falls. But others, could use a year or two more to mature and develop better habits. Talent and physical gifts are only side of the equation.
Great post. And this is relevant to more than just one's basketball earnings, but also to your entire life. If it was my kid, I'd have to think long and hard about being a one-and-done. Obviously works out well for some kids, but not for all.

And, if you're really that talented, you're going to make enough money to be happy either way.

Dukehky
02-06-2015, 11:54 AM
Great post. And this is relevant to more than just one's basketball earnings, but also to your entire life. If it was my kid, I'd have to think long and hard about being a one-and-done. Obviously works out well for some kids, but not for all.

And, if you're really that talented, you're going to make enough money to be happy either way.

You can always go back to college, you only have a very finite number of years to potentially play in the NBA.

I used to think this way, that everyone was better off going to college and staying for a few years, but you have to realize the inherent bias that we have as fans of college basketball, and big enough fans to devote time during a weekday to posting on a message board. It is in our best interest to rationalize in any way we can the benefit of the best players staying in college for as long as possible. I would love to see kids stay longer, it would benefit the product of college basketball indescribably, but since the 1 and done era, the NBA has grown tremendously in both popularity and in the quality of product. If you believe that college is best suited to help a young man improve on and off the court, that is an opinion that is valid, but the on the court part, I just happen to disagree with.

yancem
02-06-2015, 12:57 PM
You can always go back to college, you only have a very finite number of years to potentially play in the NBA.

Yes, you can always go back to college but you can't go back to college and have the same experience as you would have at age 20. Older students have a completely different experience and while they benefit academically (maybe even more than traditional students) they miss out on the social/maturation aspects of college. I think the value of college extends well beyond the classroom. Also, not that I think about it, what happens if player leaves early with a fairly weak transcript? Can he go back to the same level of college? Many athletes get into better schools than they ordinarily would have been able to because of there physical gifts. Are they guaranteed a spot back at those schools 10-15 years later or are they forces to look at lower rated schools? Also, they aren't likely to get the academic support as non athletes as they did when they were on a team.

I think the "you can always go back to college" comment carries many of the same *'s as the "nba will always be there" statements.

Kedsy
02-06-2015, 01:57 PM
Also, not that I think about it, what happens if player leaves early with a fairly weak transcript? Can he go back to the same level of college?

I'm pretty sure Duke would let in any former Duke player who left early and wanted to come back. Though I agree with the rest of your post -- there is a value to the college experience that is lost if a kid leaves early and comes back as an older adult.

yancem
02-06-2015, 02:09 PM
I'm pretty sure Duke would let in any former Duke player who left early and wanted to come back. Though I agree with the rest of your post -- there is a value to the college experience that is lost if a kid leaves early and comes back as an older adult.

I assume you are correct about Duke (although I think that has more to do with K than Duke itself) but I wonder if all colleges would welcome back their players, especially the ones that leave with less than optimal academic standing and didn't go out and make a big name for themselves.

Also, another thought just occurred to me, you have to factor in the cost of going back to college. Many players leave college early for financial reasons and if they wash out of the pros early and didn't do a good enough job saving the money they did make, they may not have the money to go back to college.

Des Esseintes
02-06-2015, 02:11 PM
Yes, you can always go back to college but you can't go back to college and have the same experience as you would have at age 20. Older students have a completely different experience and while they benefit academically (maybe even more than traditional students) they miss out on the social/maturation aspects of college. I think the value of college extends well beyond the classroom. Also, not that I think about it, what happens if player leaves early with a fairly weak transcript? Can he go back to the same level of college? Many athletes get into better schools than they ordinarily would have been able to because of there physical gifts. Are they guaranteed a spot back at those schools 10-15 years later or are they forces to look at lower rated schools? Also, they aren't likely to get the academic support as non athletes as they did when they were on a team.

I think the "you can always go back to college" comment carries many of the same *'s as the "nba will always be there" statements.

Most of us on this board went to college. A good many went to Duke. I loved my time in Durham. I loved my classes, my friends, the grounds, the basketball, etc. But part of what makes college great is simply that one is young and free. Kids who jump to the NBA get that too, you know? Probably on an even greater scale than we Duke students enjoyed. They aren't having the exact same classroom experiences you and I did, but is anyone going to seriously argue that an NBA draft pick's experiences are anything other than revelatory and irreplaceable? College is a wonderful place when you're 20, but the world has many wonderful places for a 20-year-old to be. Because it's revelatory and irreplaceable to be 20.

Kedsy
02-06-2015, 02:57 PM
Most of us on this board went to college. A good many went to Duke. I loved my time in Durham. I loved my classes, my friends, the grounds, the basketball, etc. But part of what makes college great is simply that one is young and free. Kids who jump to the NBA get that too, you know? Probably on an even greater scale than we Duke students enjoyed. They aren't having the exact same classroom experiences you and I did, but is anyone going to seriously argue that an NBA draft pick's experiences are anything other than revelatory and irreplaceable? College is a wonderful place when you're 20, but the world has many wonderful places for a 20-year-old to be. Because it's revelatory and irreplaceable to be 20.

I agree to an extent but also disagree a little. One of the things about college is being 20 and enjoying freedom with other people close to your own age. A kid in the NBA is surrounded by adults. It's possible his teammates don't treat him as a peer, e.g., don't talk to him off the court, don't ask him to join them when they go out, etc. In that case, the kid is either spending half his time alone in a hotel room, or he's interacting in the real world with groupies and people who want things from him, which could be great but maybe not as great as hanging out with your close friends in a relatively sheltered environment.

Des Esseintes
02-06-2015, 03:10 PM
I agree to an extent but also disagree a little. One of the things about college is being 20 and enjoying freedom with other people close to your own age. A kid in the NBA is surrounded by adults. It's possible his teammates don't treat him as a peer, e.g., don't talk to him off the court, don't ask him to join them when they go out, etc. In that case, the kid is either spending half his time alone in a hotel room, or he's interacting in the real world with groupies and people who want things from him, which could be great but maybe not as great as hanging out with your close friends in a relatively sheltered environment.

I agree that's a risk. But had someone offered you the opportunity to play in the NBA at 20, with all that that entailed, would you have declined? I know my answer.

yancem
02-06-2015, 03:47 PM
I agree that's a risk. But had someone offered you the opportunity to play in the NBA at 20, with all that that entailed, would you have declined? I know my answer.

If it was the NBA or playing at Duke? I'd say Duke but I had 2 parents that went to Duke and grew up in Durham going to games at Cameron so I'm not the best person to ask. I never dreamed of playing in the NBA, I dreamed of playing for Duke (not that I ever had a chance). To me, the money of the NBA would be awesome but the travel, eating out, hotels, etc. would be tedious. If I felt the money would still be there, I could wait a year or two.

CDu
02-06-2015, 03:52 PM
If it was the NBA or playing at Duke? I'd say Duke but I had 2 parents that went to Duke and grew up in Durham going to games at Cameron so I'm not the best person to ask. I never dreamed of playing in the NBA, I dreamed of playing for Duke (not that I ever had a chance). To me, the money of the NBA would be awesome but the travel, eating out, hotels, etc. would be tedious. If I felt the money would still be there, I could wait a year or two.

I think it is easier to say that when the millions of dollars are not actively dangling in front of you. A lot easier to say "I could wait" when you aren't really putting those millions at risk.

Kedsy
02-06-2015, 04:31 PM
I agree that's a risk. But had someone offered you the opportunity to play in the NBA at 20, with all that that entailed, would you have declined? I know my answer.

No, I probably would have grabbed it with both hands. But that doesn't mean I wouldn't have lost something meaningful by leaving college early.

sagegrouse
02-06-2015, 04:41 PM
2. I don't think Kyrie will ever be a good defender. K couldn't make him one. No one in the pros has yet managed it. He's had a year plus a national team experience with K. He's had Tom Thibodeau on the national team. He's had Mike Brown, who is a bad coach but at least defensively solid. He's had Byron Scott, who is a bad coach but at least helped Chris Paul's development. Kyrie's problem is not a lack of coaching. He's a bad defender, probably because of a fundamental inability to see the defensive floor properly, near as I can tell from listening to smart observers.

.

I disagree here. Kyrie is an elite athlete with extraordinary reflexes. The reason he had not developed his defensive game before this year -- he was on an absolutely horrible Cav team where no one really cared about winning and, therefore, there was little effort put into defense.

I remember about five years ago, someone asked Grant Hill about the prospects of a given NBA team that seemed to be amassing talent. "No chance," said Grant and then, pointing to the roster, said, "Ex-Clip, ex-Clip, ex-Clip." His point being that guys on the old Clippers were pretty useless in the NBA because they hadn't learned how to compete and win. Kyrie's NBA development has been stymied by his surroundings -- until now with LBJ directing the team. I look forward to his improvement into an all-court player.

NYBri
02-06-2015, 04:52 PM
Because it's revelatory and irreplaceable to be 20.

Sigh. Very true looking at it from age 62. Two years away from McCartney's "When I'm 64," and 8 years shy of Paul Simon's, "How terribly strange to be 70."

Being 20, on the cusp of adulthood with everything being new and the world in front of you is a spectacular place to be...especially at Duke...and playing ball.

kAzE
02-06-2015, 05:23 PM
I disagree here. Kyrie is an elite athlete with extraordinary reflexes. The reason he had not developed his defensive game before this year -- he was on an absolutely horrible Cav team where no one really cared about winning and, therefore, there was little effort put into defense.

I remember about five years ago, someone asked Grant Hill about the prospects of a given NBA team that seemed to be amassing talent. "No chance," said Grant and then, pointing to the roster, said, "Ex-Clip, ex-Clip, ex-Clip." His point being that guys on the old Clippers were pretty useless in the NBA because they hadn't learned how to compete and win. Kyrie's NBA development has been stymied by his surroundings -- until now with LBJ directing the team. I look forward to his improvement into an all-court player.

I'm with you, I think labeling a 22 year old incapable of playing defense is a bit short sighted. James Harden, Damian Lillard and Stephen Curry were all laughingstocks defensively as recently as last year, yet all 3 are in the top 15 for defensive win shares this season. That's not necessarily the BEST metric to evaluate defense, but it's definitely not a fluke either. Kyrie has noticeably stepped up his effort on that end of the floor as well. The guy is just now entering the prime of his career. Give him a break . . .

yancem
02-06-2015, 05:47 PM
I think it is easier to say that when the millions of dollars are not actively dangling in front of you. A lot easier to say "I could wait" when you aren't really putting those millions at risk.

Unfortunately for me, I'll never be put in a position to know for sure but I'm pretty confident in my answer. It all depends on your priorities and dreams. I stared dreaming about play ball at duke when Tate Armstrong was filling it up and I pretended to be Gene Banks for hours in my driveway after he made his game winning shot against unc.

I like money as much as the next guy but being the big man on campus is much more appealing to me than being in the NBA. I don't think most people understand how monotonous being in the NBA would be. It's a long season with lots of planes and hotels. Add being 20 and not being able to go to bars and probably not having many teammates your age or sharing your interests to hang out with. I'm not saying it would be all bad but being a college athlete isn't a bad life either.

Duke95
02-06-2015, 08:19 PM
Unfortunately for me, I'll never be put in a position to know for sure but I'm pretty confident in my answer. It all depends on your priorities and dreams. I stared dreaming about play ball at duke when Tate Armstrong was filling it up and I pretended to be Gene Banks for hours in my driveway after he made his game winning shot against unc.

I like money as much as the next guy but being the big man on campus is much more appealing to me than being in the NBA. I don't think most people understand how monotonous being in the NBA would be. It's a long season with lots of planes and hotels. Add being 20 and not being able to go to bars and probably not having many teammates your age or sharing your interests to hang out with. I'm not saying it would be all bad but being a college athlete isn't a bad life either.

I guarantee you that if someone gave you the choice of being "popular on campus" vs. being rich in the NBA, you'd take the latter.

MChambers
02-06-2015, 09:30 PM
I guarantee you that if someone gave you the choice of being "popular on campus" vs. being rich in the NBA, you'd take the latter.
You guarantee it? Then how do you explain Tim Duncan and Grant Hill playing four years of college?

Want to reconsider your statement?

Duke95
02-06-2015, 09:57 PM
You guarantee it? Then how do you explain Tim Duncan and Grant Hill playing four years of college?

Want to reconsider your statement?

Not at all.

The fact that you have to go that far back is all the explanation you need. What's next? Jordan playing 3 years?

If you think Okafor and Winslow are going to play 4 years, I think you may want to reconsider yourself.

MChambers
02-07-2015, 07:05 AM
Not at all.

The fact that you have to go that far back is all the explanation you need. What's next? Jordan playing 3 years?

If you think Okafor and Winslow are going to play 4 years, I think you may want to reconsider yourself.
Never said they'd play four years.

yancem
02-07-2015, 09:42 PM
I guarantee you that if someone gave you the choice of being "popular on campus" vs. being rich in the NBA, you'd take the latter.

I'm sorry but you guarnatee me? That is awfully persumtious!!! So you know my wants, desires, dreams and ambitions? Tim Duncan would have been th #1 pick after his sophomore and junior years yet stayed for 4 years, why? Want a more recent example? How about Marcus Smart? He would have been a lottery pick in 2013 but came back for another season. Just because you value money above all else, don't assume that everyone else does.

Duke95
02-09-2015, 03:54 PM
Just because you value money above all else, don't assume that everyone else does.

Speaking of being presumptuous. :rolleyes:

Dev11
02-10-2015, 11:46 AM
This thread came out of the 2015 Recruiting Thread, which, as often happens, morphed from a recruiting thread into a discussion of the NBA draft early entry rules and whether or not any current Duke players should/will leave school early. Please be civil and carry on.

AIRFORCEDUKIE
02-10-2015, 12:28 PM
Its like youre a magician or something...The MOD powers are strong with this one

ice-9
02-11-2015, 04:40 AM
4. You brought up Miles Plumlee earlier. When Miles was drafted, it looked like a bad, cynical reach on the Pacers' part, an effort to sell tickets by bringing in a local boy made good. And his rookie year, he did not look as though he belonged. On a team with a wretched bench that could badly have used some effective athleticism behind Hibbert, he couldn't get in games. Then h gets traded to Phoenix. Aided by an injury to Alex Len, Miles plays well enough to lock down the starting role on a team that wins 47 games in the West. That development, from unplayable bench fixture to decent good-team starter? That development happened after graduation and off camera. He got better working with assistant coaches and drilling constantly to get better. That's an option college players just don't have, and Miles took full advantage of it. He was absolutely right to stay four years in school; he'd never have been drafted otherwise. But he is also an example of prodigious growth away from college ball.

So what does it mean that Plumlee has regressed this year? That there can be too much NBA development? :confused:

All things said and done, I probably agree with you that generally, players develop faster in the NBA. But the situation is clearly more nuanced than NBA > college. Some college environments may be better than certain NBA ones. We could be confusing causation with correlation -- that most players do understandably improve dramatically as young adults than as teenagers, environment notwithstanding, and most of the time, when you're in the NBA you're a young adult.

It's a complex situation that doesn't really require simplification. Avery may have been better off with one year at Duke. He may not have been.

Des Esseintes
02-11-2015, 09:42 AM
So what does it mean that Plumlee has regressed this year? That there can be too much NBA development? :confused:

All things said and done, I probably agree with you that generally, players develop faster in the NBA. But the situation is clearly more nuanced than NBA > college. Some college environments may be better than certain NBA ones. We could be confusing causation with correlation -- that most players do understandably improve dramatically as young adults than as teenagers, environment notwithstanding, and most of the time, when you're in the NBA you're a young adult.

It's a complex situation that doesn't really require simplification. Avery may have been better off with one year at Duke. He may not have been.
I'll acknowledge it's a complex situation, but that is sort of what I was arguing. People are saying Avery would have developed into an NBA-level point with more time at Duke. Like you, I think some college environments might trump some pro environments for a particular player at a particular time, but Avery was faaaar below an NBA point at the end of his third year in the league. He was not asked back. Hard to believe extra time at Duke would have altered that situation. So, amid all that complexity, how can we argue with Will's decision to take $4M in guaranteed lottery money? To believe otherwise, you have to believe college is overwhelmingly better at developing talent. And there's basically no evidence of that.

yancem
02-11-2015, 09:45 AM
Speaking of being presumptuous. :rolleyes:

Point taken, but my presumptions were at least in line with his previous comments while his was counter to mine.

yancem
02-11-2015, 10:00 AM
So what does it mean that Plumlee has regressed this year? That there can be too much NBA development? :confused:

All things said and done, I probably agree with you that generally, players develop faster in the NBA. But the situation is clearly more nuanced than NBA > college. Some college environments may be better than certain NBA ones. We could be confusing causation with correlation -- that most players do understandably improve dramatically as young adults than as teenagers, environment notwithstanding, and most of the time, when you're in the NBA you're a young adult.

It's a complex situation that doesn't really require simplification. Avery may have been better off with one year at Duke. He may not have been.

One aspect that I don't think has been addressed is emotional development. I think that fragile egos have a better chance to grow and evolve in a college setting. I recognize that most kids don't get the kid glove treatment even in college but because competition is lower in college, they have a better chance of having some measure success to build the confidence and emotional strength to survive in the pros. Let's face it, the nba is a business filled with people fighting for their jobs, while the pressure of college ball is high (especially at the big programs) it's nothing compared to the nba. Some of these kids aren't ready for the grind and stress of the pros and more time in a safe(r) environment might increase the possibility of sticking in the nba.

sagegrouse
02-11-2015, 10:11 AM
So what does it mean that Plumlee has regressed this year? That there can be too much NBA development? :confused:

All things said and done, I probably agree with you that generally, players develop faster in the NBA. But the situation is clearly more nuanced than NBA > college. Some college environments may be better than certain NBA ones. We could be confusing causation with correlation -- that most players do understandably improve dramatically as young adults than as teenagers, environment notwithstanding, and most of the time, when you're in the NBA you're a young adult.

It's a complex situation that doesn't really require simplification. Avery may have been better off with one year at Duke. He may not have been.

Re Miles Plumlee: a lot of big dudes take a long while to develop basketball skills and coordination. Maybe it's just Father Time at work.

mr. synellinden
02-11-2015, 10:28 AM
I'll acknowledge it's a complex situation, but that is sort of what I was arguing. People are saying Avery would have developed into an NBA-level point with more time at Duke. Like you, I think some college environments might trump some pro environments for a particular player at a particular time, but Avery was faaaar below an NBA point at the end of his third year in the league. He was not asked back. Hard to believe extra time at Duke would have altered that situation. So, amid all that complexity, how can we argue with Will's decision to take $4M in guaranteed lottery money? To believe otherwise, you have to believe college is overwhelmingly better at developing talent. And there's basically no evidence of that.

Why is it hard to believe that Avery might have been better prepared for the NBA if he had stayed another year or two? Chris Duhon stayed in the NBA for a long time after staying 4 years. He might have been drafted after his sophomore year and had a 3 year career just like Avery. The recent examples of Lance Thomas and Miles Plumlee (and Quinn Cook and Brian Zoubek) show how much 4 year players develop at Duke. Also, there's no reason to believe that Avery wouldn't have become an All-American in his junior and/or senior years and maybe even drafted higher than he was. And even if he only lasted 3 years, he would have made a lot more money as a higher first round pick in those three years. Or he might have stuck around as long as Chris Duhon did and made a lot more money. That's how you can argue with Avery's decision.

Des Esseintes
02-11-2015, 10:35 AM
One aspect that I don't think has been addressed is emotional development. I think that fragile egos have a better chance to grow and evolve in a college setting. I recognize that most kids don't get the kid glove treatment even in college but because competition is lower in college, they have a better chance of having some measure success to build the confidence and emotional strength to survive in the pros. Let's face it, the nba is a business filled with people fighting for their jobs, while the pressure of college ball is high (especially at the big programs) it's nothing compared to the nba. Some of these kids aren't ready for the grind and stress of the pros and more time in a safe(r) environment might increase the possibility of sticking in the nba.

You're talking about telling a person to defer a lifelong dream that would net millions of dollars per year. I would hope that reasoning would have something stronger behind it than, "College is incredible therapy." If you're making a million dollars a year, you can pay for therapy.

Moreover, I don't really even know if your claim is true. The best players in the NBA are guys with both immense talent and immense drive. Almost none of them played more than about a season of college ball. Perhaps more to the point, the vast majority of NBA players now have two or fewer years of college, while both the league's popularity and overall level of play are widely acknowledged to be at historical highs. Somehow, these guys are managing to navigate the apparent hell of sleeping in nice hotels on the regular and riding around on private planes without lots of time in the college cocoon to prepare them for their trial.

You can say college provides an emotional shield, but that's just a claim. I could just as easily claim college gives +2 against lycanthropes and magic-users. Doesn't make it so. We want guys to stay on college, so we invent reasons for why they're better off in college. It's a classic instance of working backward from the conclusion.

JasonEvans
02-11-2015, 10:56 AM
I really, really, really shouldn't do this... but...

Jah loves being at Duke. (http://chicago.suntimes.com/sports/7/71/359358/jahlil-okafor-loves-life-duke-long)

“I know I’ll be in position to live my dream in the NBA or live my dream and stay here at Duke with people who truly love me,” he said. “I totally feel comfortable with staying here in college, and my family wouldn’t care one bit as long as I’m happy. They know how much I love being here.

“I love everything about Duke. I wish I could just stop time and be able to enjoy this as much as I can.”

-Jason "don't shoot the messenger!" Evans

WillJ
02-11-2015, 11:08 AM
As I think is evident from the discussion on this thread, what's the right move on when to go pro certainly varies from player to player, and both emotional and physical skill development matters. Miles Plumlee is a somewhat unusual Duke player in that he has always been physically gifted but just does not have great basketball skills or, more importantly IMO, instincts. I was watching the Phoenix-Houston game last night and he does do some very impressive things but he just does not have good instincts on where to be on the court or in how to use his body to get off shots - Chris Webber actually made some insightful comments on this, I thought. I don't think he'll ever get a lot better on those dimensions.
Also, for all the Grant Hill - Fab Five controversy, Grant and Chris Webber got along fine on a broadcast team.

Billy Dat
02-11-2015, 11:17 AM
This is always an interesting debate.

With William Avery, maybe leaving was best because Jason Williams was coming to town and, as good as Avery was, he was no Jason Williams. Maybe Jason Williams doesn't develop as quickly if Avery is stlll in town, there are contingencies upon contingencies.

One argument for staying in school, and one that I think helped Miles, was that, if you are not a lottery pick, staying in school helps put you in your place a bit. Most guys are not going to be NBA Stars, let alone NBA starters, or even rotation men, or even make the NBA. Staying in school might humble a guy to the point where he knows he needs to find those 1-2 things that are going to give him a foothold. You are better at "fitting in" and not making waves, key traits to making an NBA team as long as the talent is there. Also, the longer you stay at Duke, the longer you are exposed to the Duke basketball Illuminati (players, coaches, media personalities, agents, owners, alumni businessmen) who can open doors and launch careers.

I think about Florida's Chris Walker, the heralded recruit who missed all of last year and has been underwhelming this year. Should he be thinking about leaving now and hope someone takes a chance on his potential, or does he hunker down, decide to work with Billy D and staff for the next two years, and try to make the league as a "fitting in" guy ala Shav, Lance, etc. But, back to the original premise of this debate, the best bang for his buck probably would have been to declare after his freshmen year when no one had ever seen him play in college - he may have been a lottery pick!

sagegrouse
02-11-2015, 11:33 AM
You're talking about telling a person to defer a lifelong dream that would net millions of dollars per year. I would hope that reasoning would have something stronger behind it than, "College is incredible therapy." If you're making a million dollars a year, you can pay for therapy.

Moreover, I don't really even know if your claim is true. The best players in the NBA are guys with both immense talent and immense drive. Almost none of them played more than about a season of college ball. Perhaps more to the point, the vast majority of NBA players now have two or fewer years of college, while both the league's popularity and overall level of play are widely acknowledged to be at historical highs. Somehow, these guys are managing to navigate the apparent hell of sleeping in nice hotels on the regular and riding around on private planes without lots of time in the college cocoon to prepare them for their trial.

You can say college provides an emotional shield, but that's just a claim. I could just as easily claim college gives +2 against lycanthropes and magic-users. Doesn't make it so. We want guys to stay on college, so we invent reasons for why they're better off in college. It's a classic instance of working backward from the conclusion.

I tend to wonder, Des Esseintes, how many personal train wrecks have occurred for 19 or 20-year-olds trying to live in the NBA. As I remember Devil Momma saying to JWill when he talked about leaving after two years at Duke: "You're going to the NBA? The only place you have ever lived is at home and in a college dorm."

The money will be there provided (a) no serious injury (which can somewhat be protected with insurance) or (b) the NBA is overvaluing the player, and he will not be drafted as high in the future.

WRT the latter, Mike Dunleavy didn't want to go in 2002, but he was a top-three pick. Not that he was overvalued, but this is such a high draft position, it is hard to pass it up.

Des Esseintes
02-11-2015, 12:04 PM
I tend to wonder, Des Esseintes, how many personal train wrecks have occurred for 19 or 20-year-olds trying to live in the NBA. As I remember Devil Momma saying to JWill when he talked about leaving after two years at Duke: "You're going to the NBA? The only place you have ever lived is at home and in a college dorm."

The money will be there provided (a) no serious injury (which can somewhat be protected with insurance) or (b) the NBA is overvaluing the player, and he will not be drafted as high in the future.

WRT the latter, Mike Dunleavy didn't want to go in 2002, but he was a top-three pick. Not that he was overvalued, but this is such a high draft position, it is hard to pass it up.

No, the money won't be there. An athlete has a given number of years of excellence. Every year he plays for free during that earning time, those wages are just lost. For guys who can use the development and exposure of college to drastically improve what the NBA thinks of them--Miles, Lance, and everyone else who isn't guaranteed a first round slot--playing for free is a solid bargain. You get better, you get a college education, and you develop a network of contacts from which to draw upon later. But the guys like Will Avery who started this discussion, guys who can go lottery? Any year they play in college past the year they could get drafted highly is lost money. There are compelling reasons to stay in college anyway, but we're kidding ourselves if we think ultimate career earnings speak on the side of staying for the lottery-level players.

ChillinDuke
02-11-2015, 12:15 PM
This is always an interesting debate.

With William Avery, maybe leaving was best because Jason Williams was coming to town and, as good as Avery was, he was no Jason Williams. Maybe Jason Williams doesn't develop as quickly if Avery is stlll in town, there are contingencies upon contingencies.

One argument for staying in school, and one that I think helped Miles, was that, if you are not a lottery pick, staying in school helps put you in your place a bit. Most guys are not going to be NBA Stars, let alone NBA starters, or even rotation men, or even make the NBA. Staying in school might humble a guy to the point where he knows he needs to find those 1-2 things that are going to give him a foothold. You are better at "fitting in" and not making waves, key traits to making an NBA team as long as the talent is there. Also, the longer you stay at Duke, the longer you are exposed to the Duke basketball Illuminati (players, coaches, media personalities, agents, owners, alumni businessmen) who can open doors and launch careers.

I think about Florida's Chris Walker, the heralded recruit who missed all of last year and has been underwhelming this year. Should he be thinking about leaving now and hope someone takes a chance on his potential, or does he hunker down, decide to work with Billy D and staff for the next two years, and try to make the league as a "fitting in" guy ala Shav, Lance, etc. But, back to the original premise of this debate, the best bang for his buck probably would have been to declare after his freshmen year when no one had ever seen him play in college - he may have been a lottery pick!

Well said.

I think this is where I fall in the spectrum as well.

- Chillin

Kedsy
02-11-2015, 12:22 PM
Why is it hard to believe that Avery might have been better prepared for the NBA if he had stayed another year or two? Chris Duhon stayed in the NBA for a long time after staying 4 years. He might have been drafted after his sophomore year and had a 3 year career just like Avery.

I don't think showing that a four-year player had a long NBA career proves anything about what might have happened to a two-year player. You could just as easily say Chris Duhon could have left after his sophomore year and gotten drafted in the first round (he went in the second round in real life), had just as long a career but made more money.

The fact is, Duhon and Avery weren't similar players. Duhon was a "three-and-D" guy in the NBA (though he also had some decent assist numbers), which is considered valuable in the League. But Duhon was a good defender right from the get-go at Duke and his shooting didn't improve over four years anyway. Avery couldn't play defense in the NBA and couldn't shoot from the longer 3-point distance. I'm not sure an extra two years at Duke would have improved him enough in either of those areas to make a difference in the length of his NBA career.


The recent examples of Lance Thomas and Miles Plumlee (and Quinn Cook and Brian Zoubek) show how much 4 year players develop at Duke.

Just because a player develops doesn't mean he gets drafted higher (or drafted at all). In fact, being a four-year player tends to lower your draft status. The fact that Miles got drafted late in the first round was the shock of that particular draft. Lance and Z didn't get drafted, and it's unlikely Quinn will, either (and if he does, it'll be 2nd round for sure).


Also, there's no reason to believe that Avery wouldn't have become an All-American in his junior and/or senior years and maybe even drafted higher than he was. And even if he only lasted 3 years, he would have made a lot more money as a higher first round pick in those three years.

Really unlikely Avery would have been drafted higher than 14th. Even at the time, I think most NBA types thought the Timberwolves were stretching to draft him as high as they did. And when you're a small guard, becoming an All-American doesn't necessarily raise your draft stock. Just ask Scottie Reynolds.

Matches
02-11-2015, 12:41 PM
I tend to wonder, Des Esseintes, how many personal train wrecks have occurred for 19 or 20-year-olds trying to live in the NBA. As I remember Devil Momma saying to JWill when he talked about leaving after two years at Duke: "You're going to the NBA? The only place you have ever lived is at home and in a college dorm."



At the same time, Coach K advised JWill to go pro after both his freshman and sophomore seasons.


Why is it hard to believe that Avery might have been better prepared for the NBA if he had stayed another year or two? Chris Duhon stayed in the NBA for a long time after staying 4 years. He might have been drafted after his sophomore year and had a 3 year career just like Avery. The recent examples of Lance Thomas and Miles Plumlee (and Quinn Cook and Brian Zoubek) show how much 4 year players develop at Duke. Also, there's no reason to believe that Avery wouldn't have become an All-American in his junior and/or senior years and maybe even drafted higher than he was. And even if he only lasted 3 years, he would have made a lot more money as a higher first round pick in those three years. Or he might have stuck around as long as Chris Duhon did and made a lot more money. That's how you can argue with Avery's decision.

That's a straw man, though. No one is claiming that players don't develop during college - I think we can all agree that Duke is very good at developing basketball players and at developing solid citizens. That's more or less the philosophical underpinning for the existence of intercollegiate athletics, and I doubt there's a soul on this board who would dispute it.

The debate is over whether it makes sense for a player to forego guaranteed millions in exchange for another year of development in college. Chris Duhon and Lance Thomas are irrelevant to that debate because they never had guaranteed millions to forego. They're both nice success stories - guys who represented Duke well for four years, worked hard, got better, and carved out careers at the next level - but neither was a legit early entry candidate.

Probably also worth noting that, with the exceptions of Avery and JWill (injury), all of Duke's early entry guys have gone on to have good NBA careers. Maybe we'll add Rivers to the "bust" list in a year or two but so far all of those guys seem to have been pretty adequately prepared. Even Shav, who was easily our most questionable early entry guy, is still in the league nine years later.

mr. synellinden
02-11-2015, 03:16 PM
I don't think showing that a four-year player had a long NBA career proves anything about what might have happened to a two-year player. You could just as easily say Chris Duhon could have left after his sophomore year and gotten drafted in the first round (he went in the second round in real life), had just as long a career but made more money.

The fact is, Duhon and Avery weren't similar players. Duhon was a "three-and-D" guy in the NBA (though he also had some decent assist numbers), which is considered valuable in the League. But Duhon was a good defender right from the get-go at Duke and his shooting didn't improve over four years anyway. Avery couldn't play defense in the NBA and couldn't shoot from the longer 3-point distance. I'm not sure an extra two years at Duke would have improved him enough in either of those areas to make a difference in the length of his NBA career.



Just because a player develops doesn't mean he gets drafted higher (or drafted at all). In fact, being a four-year player tends to lower your draft status. The fact that Miles got drafted late in the first round was the shock of that particular draft. Lance and Z didn't get drafted, and it's unlikely Quinn will, either (and if he does, it'll be 2nd round for sure).



Really unlikely Avery would have been drafted higher than 14th. Even at the time, I think most NBA types thought the Timberwolves were stretching to draft him as high as they did. And when you're a small guard, becoming an All-American doesn't necessarily raise your draft stock. Just ask Scottie Reynolds.




At the same time, Coach K advised JWill to go pro after both his freshman and sophomore seasons.



That's a straw man, though. No one is claiming that players don't develop during college - I think we can all agree that Duke is very good at developing basketball players and at developing solid citizens. That's more or less the philosophical underpinning for the existence of intercollegiate athletics, and I doubt there's a soul on this board who would dispute it.

The debate is over whether it makes sense for a player to forego guaranteed millions in exchange for another year of development in college. Chris Duhon and Lance Thomas are irrelevant to that debate because they never had guaranteed millions to forego. They're both nice success stories - guys who represented Duke well for four years, worked hard, got better, and carved out careers at the next level - but neither was a legit early entry candidate.

Probably also worth noting that, with the exceptions of Avery and JWill (injury), all of Duke's early entry guys have gone on to have good NBA careers. Maybe we'll add Rivers to the "bust" list in a year or two but so far all of those guys seem to have been pretty adequately prepared. Even Shav, who was easily our most questionable early entry guy, is still in the league nine years later.

My comments were not a straw man related to the post to which I was responding - which essentially stated that it is hard to believe Avery would have improved at Duke.

We all seem to agree that plenty of Duke players have improved at Duke, especially in their third and fourth years, to the point that they became more viable NBA players as a result (e.g., Lance Thomas, Miles Plumlee)- and this is true even of guys who did not get drafted or make it in the NBA (e.g., Chris Carrawell, Brian Zoubek, Jon Scheyer, Quinn Cook). Avery's shooting percentages were 43% and 30% on threes and 74% on FT as a freshman and 48% and 41% on threes and 81% on FT as a sophomore. Pretty good development. It is very easy to believe that Avery would have continued to improve at Duke. (It is also true that our early entry guys have done very well generally).

The bottom line is that when you're 18 or 19, you are still developing physically and athletically. Most athletes peak around age 28. So players are going to "develop" whether they are in the NBA or in college. Just because there are Kobe/LeBron-like success stories about players going straight from high school does not necessarily mean that the NBA is a better place to develop than college. It could be for some players. But for every Kobe there is a Tim Duncan. And for every LeBron, there is a Steph Curry, Jimmy Butler or Paul Millsap (who stayed three years) or Kyle Korver (who stayed 4). Would anyone argue that Jameis Winston or Cardale Jones going to the NFL right out of high school would have prepared them better for the NBA? I realize the NFL is a much more physical game - but physical and athletic development are very crucial in the NBA as well. How often do we talk about a player needing to become stronger? Not too many players come to college physically developed like LeBron or Maggette or Jahlil or Winslow. Does anyone think Tyus Jones is physically ready for the NBA? What if it takes him until he's 23 to become physically ready enough to contribute to an NBA team? If he goes now, might he suffer the same fate as Avery? By waiting, he might drastically increase his chances that he has a long and lucrative NBA career.

Also, I don't agree that every year in college is a year of playing for free that is lost income. Tim Duncan is still in the NBA and plays at an all-star level at age 38. Grant Hill retired at age 40 after 19 seasons. Both of those guys played in college for four years and played 40 games a year at 40 minutes a game instead of 80-100 games a year at 48 minutes a game for four years when their bodies were still developing. That reduced mileage may have been directly related to their ability to stick in the league as long as they did. It's interesting that Kobe's body has been breaking down the last two seasons -- and Kevin Garnett's has done the same -- both happened when they hit their mid-30s. Maybe if they had played 3 or 4 years in college, they could have played for two more NBA seasons making $15-20 mill. vs. the $3-4 million lost in the early years. I'm not suggesting Avery or Tyus Jones are 15 year superstar players, but if I were an NBA-caliber player, I'd give serious consideration to the possibility that staying in college might prolong my career during the years I might be making 10-15 million a year. I seriously think this should be a consideration for a guy like Okafor who is going to take a beating in the NBA. I know he's taking a beating in college, but that's 40 games, not 80-100 and less physical players overall. When Jah is 36, if he can play two more years in the NBA making $20 million per because he put less mileage on his body at age 20, isn't that important to think about?

With the benefit of hindsight, we know that Avery was not ready to play in the NBA when he left. Now maybe leaving when he did and getting drafted 14th is the best he would have done under any circumstances. However, it is possible that he would have improved more by staying at Duke than going to the NBA when he wasn't ready (confidence is a big thing in sports). Maybe he would have gotten so much better that he became a higher pick and earned more money during his first three years (even if they were his only years). He also may have been better prepared to compete in the NBA (physically, athletically, emotionally) and may have been good enough to get a second contract. We don't know. But to say that it is hard to believe that Avery would have improved while at Duke doesn't make any sense to me.

Another point - look at the recent Duke players who stayed 3 or 4 years and didn't get drafted in the first round (or in the case of Mason who probably would have been drafted earlier had he left after his freshman year) but either had or are going to have long NBA careers in which they earned a lot of money (much more than Avery) - Singler, Boozer, Duhon, Thomas, Plumlee, Kelly. Is it possible that if those guys left after their freshman or sophomore years they wouldn't have been as well prepared to stick in the NBA and might not have been able to get a second contract?

Some of these posts are suggesting it's a foregone conclusion that Avery did the best he could by coming out when he did. And I think while that is certainly possible, it's also possible he would have been drafted higher if he had stayed and/or stuck in the league longer thereby making more money.

With respect to Kedsy's post, I wasn't comparing Avery to Duhon as a player. My point was Duhon was a four year player who got drafted in the second round and still made a lot of money in the NBA. Avery's decision should be looked at through that type of lens as well. Because even if he came back and his draft ranking dropped, perhaps his development as a four year player would have prepared him to have a Duhon-like career. Or Singler-like, who may be a better comparison. Kyle might have been a mid-first round pick as a junior or even a sophomore - like Avery. But he stayed four years and got drafted in the second round. Nevertheless, today he's an NBA starter who is a free agent at the end of the year and as a 41% three point shooter and good defender (I know - Avery might not have been either, but he did shoot 41% from 3 as a sophomore, better than Kyle) he is going to get a good contract next year.

Also, the comment that "In fact, being a four-year player tends to lower your draft status" overlooks the fact that wasn't true when Avery was in college. In 1999, 12 college seniors were drafted in the first round. Last year, only 5 were. Another first round pick in 1999 was Jonathan Bender, a high school senior, who never amounted to anything in the NBA. Might he have played longer and made a lot more money if he went to college for two or three years?

Finally, Kedsy said: "Really unlikely Avery would have been drafted higher than 14th. Even at the time, I think most NBA types thought the Timberwolves were stretching to draft him as high as they did. And when you're a small guard, becoming an All-American doesn't necessarily raise your draft stock. Just ask Scottie Reynolds. "

First, how do you know it's "really unlikely Avery would have been drafted higher than 14th"? The 2000 draft (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000_NBA_draft) is considered one of the worst of all time. Only two PGs were drafted in the first round, although it's arguable whether Keyon Dooling was a PG or SG. Either way, Avery could have been drafted in the top 10 that year if he had a strong junior year. The 2001 draft (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2001_NBA_draft) was pretty bad as well (Kwame Brown was the first pick). Raul Lopez (remember him) was one of two PGs taken in the first round (Tony Parker was the other). I think it's very possible Avery would have gone higher than 14th that year too.

And boy, talk about using a meaningless example to try to prove a point. The fact that one college All-American was not a high draft pick doesn't mean anything in this context. Kedsy wrote earlier in the post: I don't think showing that a four-year player had a long NBA career proves anything about what might have happened to a two-year player. Well, I don't think the fact that one All-American didn't get drafted high in the first round proves anything about what might have happened to Avery had he stayed another year or two. He might not have been drafted. He also might have been a top 10 pick. And even if he got drafted in the second round, maybe he would have had a career like Duhon or Singler.

One last thing to be clear - my first post on this and this current post are in response to the suggestion that it is hard to believe Avery would have developed if he stayed at Duke. They are not trying to argue that he would have been better off making a different decision. However, I do think there is a lot of evidence that he might have developed better in college (he certainly didn't develop well in the NBA) and done better financially by staying. Of course, we'll never know.

Kedsy
02-11-2015, 03:47 PM
My comments were not a straw man related to the post to which I was responding - which essentially stated that it is hard to believe Avery would have improved at Duke.

I think you misinterpreted the OP's statement. He did not say it's hard to believe Avery would have improved at Duke. He said it's hard to believe he would have developed into an NBA level PG in another one or two years at Duke. Big difference between the two statements.

Nobody could argue that Jon Scheyer or Nolan Smith didn't develop at Duke. Both improved a ton. Neither developed into an NBA level PG. So while it was quite likely that Will Avery would have continued to improve at Duke, I happen to agree with Des Esseintes that it was very unlikely that another year or two at Duke would have developed Avery into an NBA level PG.


With respect to Kedsy's post, I wasn't comparing Avery to Duhon as a player. My point was Duhon was a four year player who got drafted in the second round and still made a lot of money in the NBA. Avery's decision should be looked at through that type of lens as well. Because even if he came back and his draft ranking dropped, perhaps his development as a four year player would have prepared him to have a Duhon-like career. Or Singler-like, who may be a better comparison. Kyle might have been a mid-first round pick as a junior or even a sophomore - like Avery. But he stayed four years and got drafted in the second round. Nevertheless, today he's an NBA starter who is a free agent at the end of the year and as a 41% three point shooter and good defender (I know - Avery might not have been either, but he did shoot 41% from 3 as a sophomore, better than Kyle) he is going to get a good contract next year.

I think it's difficult to separate the type of player he was and his potential career. Like I said, Chris Duhon had the career he did mostly because of his defense and his ability to shoot three-pointers from the NBA line. Will Avery could do neither of those things, so the probability of him having a Duhon-like career seems low to me. I imagine he could have improved his defense and/or his shooting a little bit at Duke, but since he didn't improve those things during three years in the NBA, I think it's fair to conclude that he wouldn't have improved them enough to stick in the League.

Similarly, I don't think Kyle Singler is a good comparison for Avery. Singler is a good defender and can do other things that NBA teams need. If he'd come out after his junior season, he might have had to spend a year in the D-League instead of spending a year in Europe, but he'd probably have made better money while doing it, and I doubt the rest of his career would look very different.

BD80
02-11-2015, 10:30 PM
This could solve the PG situation next year. No way Tyus leaves if Jahlil stays

http://chicago.suntimes.com/sports/7/71/359358/jahlil-okafor-loves-life-duke-long

Interesting that Jabari is telling Jah all of the things he misses about Duke.

dukelifer
02-11-2015, 11:07 PM
This could solve the PG situation next year. No way Tyus leaves if Jahlil stays

http://chicago.suntimes.com/sports/7/71/359358/jahlil-okafor-loves-life-duke-long

Interesting that Jabari is telling Jah all of the things he misses about Duke.

I suppose anything is possible

Furniture
02-11-2015, 11:57 PM
This could solve the PG situation next year. No way Tyus leaves if Jahlil stays

http://chicago.suntimes.com/sports/7/71/359358/jahlil-okafor-loves-life-duke-long

Interesting that Jabari is telling Jah all of the things he misses about Duke.

Very cool!!

NYBri
02-11-2015, 11:58 PM
Nice article. One can hope, but I bet K will advise him to go for the gold.

As a Duke student, I wished many times that I could stop time. But time marches on...and Jah's life will too... To the NBA.

Dukehky
02-12-2015, 12:17 AM
Ha.

This is a nice thought. But it is a dream and no more. I would prefer if they wouldn't pay tribute to Duke and K like this with the tease. Does Jah know for sure that he's leaving? Probably not, but he is going to be the number one pick in the draft. You don't turn that down.

97 and Duncan is the last that I can remember being the sure fire #1 pick in hoops that came back, and that was a long time ago. Luck and Peyton were both crazy affluent so they could literally afford to put it off a year. I don't know the Okafors' situation, but I would be willing to bet that it isn't like the Lucks or the Mannings.

If you want to think that Okafor could come back, then that is just the epitome of optimism, and an optimism that I won't join you in. My hope at this point is that Jah gets his degree and has a Hall of Fame NBA career (we haven't had one of those). It would be awesome to get another year of him at Duke before he achieves those goals, but I just don't think it's gonna happen.

KandG
02-12-2015, 01:08 AM
Nice link. That story about Jah playing with Capel's children for two hours just melted my heart.

With that said, I don't believe for a second he's staying. Jabari was, by his own admission, legitimately torn about leaving Duke and Coach K, and it doesn't surprise me he misses college life so much. But Jah always struck me as focused on the next stage, and Jabari's ACL injury only makes the risk of staying that much more visible.

Reilly
02-12-2015, 07:04 AM
... My hope at this point is that Jah gets his degree and has a Hall of Fame NBA career (we haven't had one of those) ...

Grant have a good shot at the HOF?

Here's an interesting tale of the tape for two Duke players:

Player A: 129 games, 53% FG, 70% FT, 30.0 mins/game, 14.9 ppg, 6.0 rebs, 3.6 asts, 1.0 blocks, 1.7 steals, 1924 points
Player B: 133 games, 55% FG, 80% FT, 30.4 mins/game, 16.1 ppg, 6.3 rebs, 1.1 asts, 0.9 blocks, 0.8 steals, 2136 points

Player A has his jersey hanging in Cameron = Grant.
Player B = Mark Alarie.

CDu
02-12-2015, 07:11 AM
Grant have a good shot at the HOF?

Here's an interesting tale of the tape for two Duke players:

Player A: 129 games, 53% FG, 70% FT, 30.0 mins/game, 14.9 ppg, 6.0 rebs, 3.6 asts, 1.0 blocks, 1.7 steals, 1924 points
Player B: 133 games, 55% FG, 80% FT, 30.4 mins/game, 16.1 ppg, 6.3 rebs, 1.1 asts, 0.9 blocks, 0.8 steals, 2136 points

Player A has his jersey hanging in Cameron = Grant.
Player B = Mark Alarie.

You are missing the most important points of distinction between the two: national championships and national player of the year honors. Hill has both; Alarie has neither.

I mean, if you're going to make the case for Alarie, you should probably put him in line behind Singler, whose stats are better and has a title.

Reilly
02-12-2015, 07:19 AM
... if you're going to make the case for Alarie ...

I wasn't making a case for Alarie's jersey to be retired. Just noting how similar his college stats are to the all-time great Grant's, who may be Duke's first Naismith HOF player, and b/c there's a thread about his daughter. That Alarie's jersey is not retired has never struck me as any great injustice; nor Singler's. I wouldn't have hung up Shelden's, but that's just me.

CDu
02-12-2015, 07:34 AM
I wasn't making a case for Alarie's jersey to be retired. Just noting how similar his college stats are to the all-time great Grant's, who may be Duke's first Naismith HOF player, and b/c there's a thread about his daughter. That Alarie's jersey is not retired has never struck me as any great injustice; nor Singler's. I wouldn't have hung up Shelden's, but that's just me.

A lot of the similarity in stats is a function of teammates. Hill came to a loaded Duke team led by upperclassman and future college hall of famer Laettner. So he deferred a good bit of the scoring load. Heck, Hill wasn't even a full-time starter as an underclassman, whereas Alarie started all four years. Hill was also much more than a scorer and rebounder. He totalled more assists as a senior (almost did so as a soph, too) than Alarie did in his career, and was an elite defensive player.

flyingdutchdevil
02-12-2015, 08:51 AM
It's articles like these that give hope to Duke fans that Jahlil is coming back. I'm sure Jahlil will consider coming back, just like Irving, Rivers, and Jabari did before him. But that is substantially different from actually coming back.

Most one-and-dones love college and the respective school that they are out. But if you are a guaranteed top 3 pick (with most having you as the first pick), you're gone. Hell, I'd be shocked if Coach K doesn't help push Jahlil out the door!

I really hope there isn't a vigil, because the chance he comes back is equal to the chance that UNC has of winning the NCAA Tournament.

The Gordog
02-12-2015, 09:17 AM
I wasn't making a case for Alarie's jersey to be retired. Just noting how similar his college stats are to the all-time great Grant's, who may be Duke's first Naismith HOF player, and b/c there's a thread about his daughter. That Alarie's jersey is not retired has never struck me as any great injustice; nor Singler's. I wouldn't have hung up Shelden's, but that's just me.

Why do people have to keep bringing up this gratuitous slam on Shelden in an unrelated thread?. His Sr. year stats rival anyone who has ever manned the middle for Duke. He was a first team All-American and Nation Defensive Player of the Year. That meets the criteria. Period.

JasonEvans
02-12-2015, 09:37 AM
Why do people have to keep bringing up this gratuitous slam on Shelden in an unrelated thread?. His Sr. year stats rival anyone who has ever manned the middle for Duke. He was a first team All-American and Nation Defensive Player of the Year. That meets the criteria. Period.

There's a piece of me that screams, "wait, why are we having a jersey retirement discussion in the middle of a NBA draft thread?" and another piece that says, "of course we are having this discussion because early entry has robbed us of the chance to have any more jersey's retired."

Seriously, it is going to be forever before Duke has another 2000 point scorer. It will only happen with someone like JJ, who is a great shooter but seen as so athletically deficient that he cannot go to the NBA early... and guys like that do not come along often. If you are good enough to be a player of the year and be considered for jersey retirement at Duke, you just aren't likely to stick around for 3 or 4 years any longer**.

-Jason "**- someone will cite Frank Kaminsky, but he would never have been recruited by Duke (not even a top 150 recruit) and he's barely a 1000 point scorer in his career" Evans

roywhite
02-12-2015, 09:43 AM
There's a piece of me that screams, "wait, why are we having a jersey retirement discussion in the middle of a NBA draft thread?" and another piece that says, "of course we are having this discussion because early entry has robbed us of the chance to have any more jersey's retired."

Seriously, it is going to be forever before Duke has another 2000 point scorer. It will only happen with someone like JJ, who is a great shooter but seen as so athletically deficient that he cannot go to the NBA early... and guys like that do not come along often. If you are good enough to be a player of the year and be considered for jersey retirement at Duke, you just aren't likely to stick around for 3 or 4 years any longer**.

-Jason "**- someone will cite Frank Kaminsky, but he would never have been recruited by Duke (not even a top 150 recruit) and he's barely a 1000 point scorer in his career" Evans

Or it could be Luke Kennard. Well, I made that prediction a few months ago. I think he'll be a very good scorer, and I don't think he is OAD. Of course, if he really blows up, he may go after 2 or 3 years. But watch Luke.

sagegrouse
02-12-2015, 09:49 AM
No, the money won't be there. An athlete has a given number of years of excellence. Every year he plays for free during that earning time, those wages are just lost. For guys who can use the development and exposure of college to drastically improve what the NBA thinks of them--Miles, Lance, and everyone else who isn't guaranteed a first round slot--playing for free is a solid bargain. You get better, you get a college education, and you develop a network of contacts from which to draw upon later. But the guys like Will Avery who started this discussion, guys who can go lottery? Any year they play in college past the year they could get drafted highly is lost money. There are compelling reasons to stay in college anyway, but we're kidding ourselves if we think ultimate career earnings speak on the side of staying for the lottery-level players.

My main point was the concern about "personal train wrecks" for very young NBA players.

As to "the money won't be there." That depends, in part, upon whether the limiting factor on the length of a career is age or physical condition, such as deterioration or injury to knees, ankles, feet, shoulders, etc. The NBA grind has more than twice as many games as a college season. Mark Alarie, whose praises have been sung here recently, had to retire after five years because he couldn't jump any more (knee injuries). If he had left Duke after two years, I kinda doubt he would have played two additional years in the NBA.

Troublemaker
02-12-2015, 10:25 AM
Or it could be Luke Kennard. Well, I made that prediction a few months ago. I think he'll be a very good scorer, and I don't think he is OAD. Of course, if he really blows up, he may go after 2 or 3 years. But watch Luke.

I think Luke has a chance as well. If he's the immediate impact scorer I think he is, then he's basically the perfect recruit. Someone that Duke can receive 3 to 4 years of outstanding production from.

kAzE
02-12-2015, 10:51 AM
It's articles like these that give hope to Duke fans that Jahlil is coming back. I'm sure Jahlil will consider coming back, just like Irving, Rivers, and Jabari did before him. But that is substantially different from actually coming back.

Most one-and-dones love college and the respective school that they are out. But if you are a guaranteed top 3 pick (with most having you as the first pick), you're gone. Hell, I'd be shocked if Coach K doesn't help push Jahlil out the door!

I really hope there isn't a vigil, because the chance he comes back is equal to the chance that UNC has of winning the NCAA Tournament.

Eh, we can rip on UNC all day, but just the fact that they have a team and aren't banned from the postseason gives them a higher chance of winning it all than Okafor returning next year. Okafor's chances of returning are equal to Syracuse's chances of winning the big dance.

jv001
02-12-2015, 11:10 AM
There's a piece of me that screams, "wait, why are we having a jersey retirement discussion in the middle of a NBA draft thread?" and another piece that says, "of course we are having this discussion because early entry has robbed us of the chance to have any more jersey's retired."

Seriously, it is going to be forever before Duke has another 2000 point scorer. It will only happen with someone like JJ, who is a great shooter but seen as so athletically deficient that he cannot go to the NBA early... and guys like that do not come along often. If you are good enough to be a player of the year and be considered for jersey retirement at Duke, you just aren't likely to stick around for 3 or 4 years any longer**.
-Jason "**- someone will cite Frank Kaminsky, but he would never have been recruited by Duke (not even a top 150 recruit) and he's barely a 1000 point scorer in his career" Evans

Back to the NBA draft discussion. JJ is a player that improved greatly after entering the NBA. He developed better ball handling skills, became a better defender and improved his body to stand up to the NBA schedule. However, not all players have the desire to improve like JJ. GoDuke!

Des Esseintes
02-12-2015, 11:21 AM
As to "the money won't be there." That depends, in part, upon whether the limiting factor on the length of a career is age or physical condition, such as deterioration or injury to knees, ankles, feet, shoulders, etc. The NBA grind has more than twice as many games as a college season. Mark Alarie, whose praises have been sung here recently, had to retire after five years because he couldn't jump any more (knee injuries). If he had left Duke after two years, I kinda doubt he would have played two additional years in the NBA.

Ah, what? Alarie is a *terrific* example of how the money may not in fact be there when you graduate. Would he for sure have gotten two extra seasons of paid play if he left early? Nope. But come on. This was a guy with a ticking clock. He almost certainly compromised lifetime earnings by playing for free for four years. If your body is going to give out soon, and your body is how you make money, you want to start getting paid for that performance as soon as possible. Alarie's time was a different eta, but his example shows what some of these guys lost.

yancem
02-12-2015, 12:38 PM
No, the money won't be there. An athlete has a given number of years of excellence. Every year he plays for free during that earning time, those wages are just lost. For guys who can use the development and exposure of college to drastically improve what the NBA thinks of them--Miles, Lance, and everyone else who isn't guaranteed a first round slot--playing for free is a solid bargain. You get better, you get a college education, and you develop a network of contacts from which to draw upon later. But the guys like Will Avery who started this discussion, guys who can go lottery? Any year they play in college past the year they could get drafted highly is lost money. There are compelling reasons to stay in college anyway, but we're kidding ourselves if we think ultimate career earnings speak on the side of staying for the lottery-level players.

How do you know that the money won't be there? With regard to Avery who you clearly feel was never going to be good enough to stick in the nba regardless of when he came out, his "given number of years of excellence" were more than the years he actually used. So had he come back to school and been better prepared to possible stay in the league a little longer. Would he been able to? I can't say for sure, but then again neither can you.

Down thread is an excellent post by mr. synellinden which better than I could have written but it illustrates how a college season is way shorter than an nba season which means that a year of college puts far fewer miles on player. Plus a 19-20 year old isn't fully developed physically which is why the nfl doesn't allow kids to enter their league until 3 years after high school. Now the nba isn't nearly as brutal as the nfl but it is still brutal. Some kids aren't physically mature enough to handle the nba's night in night out grind. Staying in school could possibly prolong their careers.


Ha.

This is a nice thought. But it is a dream and no more. I would prefer if they wouldn't pay tribute to Duke and K like this with the tease. Does Jah know for sure that he's leaving? Probably not, but he is going to be the number one pick in the draft. You don't turn that down.

97 and Duncan is the last that I can remember being the sure fire #1 pick in hoops that came back, and that was a long time ago. Luck and Peyton were both crazy affluent so they could literally afford to put it off a year. I don't know the Okafors' situation, but I would be willing to bet that it isn't like the Lucks or the Mannings.

If you want to think that Okafor could come back, then that is just the epitome of optimism, and an optimism that I won't join you in. My hope at this point is that Jah gets his degree and has a Hall of Fame NBA career (we haven't had one of those). It would be awesome to get another year of him at Duke before he achieves those goals, but I just don't think it's gonna happen.

Actually, Jason Williams would have been the #1 pick after his sophomore year but came back. I remember people up hear in DC being disappointed because the Wizards got stuck with Kwame Brown.

Now I have no expectations of Okafor coming back. I did feel like Parker might come back because he seems to have a bit of different mindset than the average basketball star. This article lends itself to Okafor also being a similar type of kid (no wonder he and Parker were good friends) but he is even more nba ready than Parker and I'm sure K will tell him to move on. It would be cool to see a kid follow his heart and enjoy being a kids for a little longer rather than enter the real world of business basketball but I can't see it happening.

roywhite
02-12-2015, 12:45 PM
Ah, what? Alarie is a *terrific* example of how the money may not in fact be there when you graduate. Would he for sure have gotten two extra seasons of paid play if he left early? Nope. But come on. This was a guy with a ticking clock. He almost certainly compromised lifetime earnings by playing for free for four years. If your body is going to give out soon, and your body is how you make money, you want to start getting paid for that performance as soon as possible. Alarie's time was a different eta, but his example shows what some of these guys lost.

An interesting example, and I'd love to hear Mark's take on this. He did play in the NBA, didn't have great success, and then went on to an MBA at Wharton, and a successful career in the financial services area, interrupted by a one-year stint as an assistant coach at the US Naval Academy, after which he decided that a coaching career was not his thing. Seems like his education was very important to a post-basketball career that has been rewarding. So, if he goes to the NBA after 2 years at Duke, would that have had an effect on his education and future career direction? Sure, he could have completed his Duke studies later, and he did go to grad school post-NBA, but maybe interrupting his college education after two years would have changed his educational track?

Just my opinion, but Mark doesn't seem like a guy who made a mis-step on lifetime earnings, all sources considered.

Matches
02-12-2015, 01:07 PM
How do you know that the money won't be there?



There's a really big difference between "the money will always be there" (oft-repeated around these parts) and "how do you know the money won't be there?" No one knows the money* won't be there, and no one's claiming to know it won't be there. All that's being asserted is that there is no certainty - that a player who passes up a guaranteed payday today isn't assured of getting that payday a year from now.

* I also find it a little off-putting how often (and I'm not accusing you of this at all -you just took the phrasing from previous posts) the debate seems to be framed as "college vs. money". That makes players who leave early sound like cash-starved mercenaries. Often I think we forget that basketball is a career path for these kids. Certainly being well-paid is a big part of that, but for a lot of these kids, their ultimate dream is playing in the NBA, not playing college ball, and that's a perfectly valid dream to have.


An interesting example, and I'd love to hear Mark's take on this. He did play in the NBA, didn't have great success, and then went on to an MBA at Wharton, and a successful career in the financial services area, interrupted by a one-year stint as an assistant coach at the US Naval Academy, after which he decided that a coaching career was not his thing. Seems like his education was very important to a post-basketball career that has been rewarding. So, if he goes to the NBA after 2 years at Duke, would that have had an effect on his education and future career direction? Sure, he could have completed his Duke studies later, and he did go to grad school post-NBA, but maybe interrupting his college education after two years would have changed his educational track?

Just my opinion, but Mark doesn't seem like a guy who made a mis-step on lifetime earnings, all sources considered.

He didn't, because he played in a completely different era. And things worked out just fine for him, so great. He is a pretty good illustration, though, of the reality that most professional athletes have a limited window within which they can play. Sometimes it's about wear and tear, or the # of miles they have on their personal odometers, and sometimes it's just about age, but everyone's time is limited.

flyingdutchdevil
02-12-2015, 02:22 PM
Back to the NBA draft discussion. JJ is a player that improved greatly after entering the NBA. He developed better ball handling skills, became a better defender and improved his body to stand up to the NBA schedule. However, not all players have the desire to improve like JJ. GoDuke!

But JJ wasn't considered a first round pick coming out of his sophomore year. Same with Nolan Smith. Both players had no option but to return to college (unless they hated Duke and wanted the D-league or Europe). And thank god they did because they both got drafted in the first round with guaranteed 2 year contracts.

The question should really be for players who are in the range 10-30. Is it worth coming back, for the experience, development, and option to improve your stock, or should you chase that coveted guaranteed contract while having more resources available to you to develop your game?

My two cents: if you have a top 5 pick, you leave. No matter what. The potential for injury or not developing that skill that scouts want you to develop is too great (see James Michael McAdoo and Josh McBob for reference). From 5-10, you leave if you're based on potential or you're a sophomore. Players like Marcus Smart and Austin Rivers left early, and for good reason. Who knows how scouts would have reacted to Austin had he stayed another year? And Smart may have climbed a few spots (he may have dropped a few as well, considering how weak the 2013 draft class was). If you're 10-30, then you really need to think. It's not a question of "can I develop"; it's a question of "can I develop faster than the scouts and GMs expected to." If the answer to that is, "yes," you probably want to stay in college. If it's no, leave and get that guaranteed contract!

yancem
02-12-2015, 03:04 PM
There's a really big difference between "the money will always be there" (oft-repeated around these parts) and "how do you know the money won't be there?" No one knows the money* won't be there, and no one's claiming to know it won't be there. All that's being asserted is that there is no certainty - that a player who passes up a guaranteed payday today isn't assured of getting that payday a year from now.

* I also find it a little off-putting how often (and I'm not accusing you of this at all -you just took the phrasing from previous posts) the debate seems to be framed as "college vs. money". That makes players who leave early sound like cash-starved mercenaries. Often I think we forget that basketball is a career path for these kids. Certainly being well-paid is a big part of that, but for a lot of these kids, their ultimate dream is playing in the NBA, not playing college ball, and that's a perfectly valid dream to have.

Actually, the post I was replying to said "No, the money won't be there." I interpreted that to mean that he knows the money won't be there. Maybe I was taking him to literally but I don't think so. I agree that the there is no guarantee that a payday will still be there if you stay in college but I also feel that some times the best financial decision is to stay in school. For most players making these decisions, there is a risk to leaving too early or staying to long. It is a very complicated decision with dozens of factors that should be considered and even when everything is analyzed to the best of the abilities of the player, coach and family, things still don't work out the way anyone hopes. That is unfortunately life.

As for the college vs money issue, you are absolutely correct that for many of these kids, basketball is their chosen career and if they are ready to compete in that business, there is nothing wrong with leaving college early to pursue their career. I'm sure that there are many students every year that forgo their degree to take a job in their chosen field (anyone hear of a guy named Bill Gates). Sometimes, this turns out to be a great career choice but sometimes the job doesn't work out and that degree would come in handy for finding the next job. I would say for the normal player trying to decide whether or not to enter the draft, there are 2 main factors in favor of going pro, money and desire to play at the highest level (a third for some, I guess, may be dislike or struggle with the academics). I think for guys like Irving, Parker and Okafor the draw of measuring yourself against the worlds best may be as big or even bigger than the money. They are men playing with boys at the college level.


But JJ wasn't considered a first round pick coming out of his sophomore year. Same with Nolan Smith. Both players had no option but to return to college (unless they hated Duke and wanted the D-league or Europe). And thank god they did because they both got drafted in the first round with guaranteed 2 year contracts.

I may be wrong but I'm pretty sure that JJ was considered a mid to late first round pick after his junior year but choose to come back and thought Smith was also a possible 1st rounder after his junior year. I think that Redick is probably a good example of coming back to Duke for 1 last season as being the right financial decision. Had he gone after his junior year, he would have been drafted much lower and since he struggled his first few seasons even after coming back, he may have either not gotten the second contract or a much smaller one.

Owen Meany
02-13-2015, 08:44 AM
It's interesting that this is being discussed at the same time TDD has a front page article "sit down" with William Avery. A moderator posted a chunk of it basically as a public service for Duke fans, to refute the Curry Kirkpatrick allegations from years ago, so I think its safe to post a small bit of that here.

"If I had to go back, I do think I would have done it differently. I think I would have stayed and prepared more and really looked at the bigger picture because at the end of the day, the money is going to be there."



I don't think its black and white that Avery should have left early. Coach K certainly didn't seem to think so (I don't know if anyone remembers Coach K's very blunt statement - "I'm not in favor of William's decision at this time... entering the draft now would not be in his best interests." I am confident that he would have recommended Avery leave early if it were in Avery's own best interests.


I also think people have forgotten just how good Avery was in his sophomore season. At the beginning of the season, after the Great Alaska Shootout (where he was MVP) someone (SI maybe) pegged him as the best player in the country up to that point. He had 29 points against UNC in the ACC final. At the time, it was considered an injustice among Duke fans that Avery wasn't 1st team all conference, and many people agreed it was only because the sportswriters wouldn't place 3 Duke players on the 1st team.

Avery had good athleticism, was strong, and absolutely had good range on his 3 point shot. Jay Bilas on Avery in the draft "Avery has, by far, the deepest shooting range of any point guard."


Avery had the physical tools, but I don't believe he had the maturity to succeed in the NBA at that time. If the story about the 3 Amigos staying out the night before the championship game are true, this would be a good example of a player needing more time to mature before heading off on their own. Avery was a very young guy, with a lot of pressure to support those around him. It's very possible that an extra year in college, at a school like Duke, with a mentor like Coach K, as the leader of the team, would have given him the maturity he needed to make the best of his professional opportunity.

gumbomoop
02-13-2015, 10:14 AM
I also think people have forgotten just how good Avery was in his sophomore season. At the beginning of the season, after the Great Alaska Shootout (where he was MVP) someone (SI maybe) pegged him as the best player in the country up to that point. He had 29 points against UNC in the ACC final. At the time, it was considered an injustice among Duke fans that Avery wasn't 1st team all conference, and many people agreed it was only because the sportswriters wouldn't place 3 Duke players on the 1st team.

Every time the issue of Avery's early leaving is discussed, I am tempted to recall Al Maguire's role. I won't resist the temptation this time.

In one of the early rounds, against Tulsa, I think, Avery was playing well, made a couple of special moves. Al was wowed, and gushed, "Avery's the greatest thing since 7-Up." I groaned, not because of the quaint reference, but because I feared such comments might get back to Avery.

Maybe no one ever related the remark to Avery. Maybe Avery didn't see a tape of the game. But I blame Al.

JasonEvans
02-13-2015, 10:44 AM
Every time the issue of Avery's early leaving is discussed, I am tempted to recall Al Maguire's role. I won't resist the temptation this time.

In one of the early rounds, against Tulsa, I think, Avery was playing well, made a couple of special moves. Al was wowed, and gushed, "Avery's the greatest thing since 7-Up." I groaned, not because of the quaint reference, but because I feared such comments might get back to Avery.

Maybe no one ever related the remark to Avery. Maybe Avery didn't see a tape of the game. But I blame Al.

Pshaw... that's nothing. I believe it was a columnist for the Chicago Tribune (or maybe it was SI or ESPN... I forget) who declared that Corey Maggette would be the #1 pick in the NBA draft if he came out, despite the fact that he wasn't even a starter for Duke. We know that info got to Corey and likely influenced his decision to come out. He was drafted #13, not even close to #1.

-Jason "in retrospect, it may be best that Corey was one-and-done as having him stick around could have been problematic what with his relationship with Piggie" Evans

luvdahops
02-13-2015, 10:58 AM
Pshaw... that's nothing. I believe it was a columnist for the Chicago Tribune (or maybe it was SI or ESPN... I forget) who declared that Corey Maggette would be the #1 pick in the NBA draft if he came out, despite the fact that he wasn't even a starter for Duke. We know that info got to Corey and likely influenced his decision to come out. He was drafted #13, not even close to #1.

-Jason "in retrospect, it may be best that Corey was one-and-done as having him stick around could have been problematic what with his relationship with Piggie" Evans

It was Sam Smith of the Trib. Longtime Bulls/NBA beat writer and author of "The Jordan Rules". I believe the prediction was based on a conversation with one (non-GM) front office guy.

CameronBlue
02-13-2015, 03:37 PM
http://probasketballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/02/13/jahlil-okafor-says-hed-be-comfortable-bypassing-nba-draft-staying-at-duke/

BigWayne
02-13-2015, 03:46 PM
Was in an article posted yesterday I think from another site. Then it got folded into the "endless draft discussion" thread.

peterjswift
02-13-2015, 04:22 PM
I don't think there's a chance this will happen, but it is nice to think about.

Like BigWayne mentioned, this article actually quotes the article from the Chicago Sun Times where this was first reported. The original article is enjoyable to read - especially the anecdote about Okafor and Jeff Capel's kids. Here's a link and the quote:

chicago.suntimes.com/sports/7/71/359358/jahlil-okafor-loves-life-duke-long-- (http://chicago.suntimes.com/sports/7/71/359358/jahlil-okafor-loves-life-duke-long--)


He’s a really special and unique young man,” said Duke assistant coach Jeff Capel. “His life experiences are something that no kid should have to go through, but it has helped make him into the amazing young man that he is.

“He’s a really happy guy, and he has always been around love. He was raised around love. He has a big heart, he’s really kind, very, very thoughtful and caring. He’s able to get outside of himself and to be a part of something. He’s able to really feel things.”

Capel’s favorite Okafor moment didn’t occur during a game or a practice or even on National Signing Day. It was last September on the day Capel’s son turned 2.

“We had a workout earlier that day,” he recalled, “and as we’re getting ready to leave Jah asks, ‘Are you having a birthday party? Is it OK if I come?’ ”

That was more than nice enough, but it was a little thing the then-18-year-old Okafor did next that put Capel over the moon. He showed up with a gift. No, he didn’t blow off the party or, as many a player might, show up just to eat. He went to the mall, spent his own money and then played with the tiny Capel children for two hours.

“If you know people Jah’s age,” Capel said, “that should tell you everything.”

NM Duke Fan
02-13-2015, 06:11 PM
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/eye-on-college-basketball/25067956/jahlil-okafor-would-be-comfortable-staying-more-than-one-year-at-duke

We cAn't draw conclusions from this, but it sure is a nice quote and at least not totally out of the question:

“I know I'll be in position to live my dream in the NBA or live my dream and stay here at Duke with people who truly love me,” he said. “I totally feel comfortable with staying here in college, and my family wouldn't care one bit as long as I'm happy. They know how much I love being here.

“I love everything about Duke. I wish I could just stop time and be able to enjoy this as much as I can.

Kedsy
02-13-2015, 06:18 PM
http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?35264-This-is-a-nice-thought

http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?35237-Endless-NBA-Draft-Discussion&p=779131#post779131

They say good news comes in threes, right? Or maybe three reports of the same thing?

FerryFor50
02-13-2015, 07:30 PM
http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?35264-This-is-a-nice-thought

http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?35237-Endless-NBA-Draft-Discussion&p=779131#post779131

They say good news comes in threes, right? Or maybe three reports of the same thing?

If we post it enough, it will happen, right?

DukieInKansas
02-13-2015, 08:11 PM
If we post it enough, it will happen, right?

DBR version of "If you build it, he will come"

cptnflash
02-13-2015, 08:19 PM
I'm curious... why do we want Okafor to stay for another season at Duke, other than for completely selfish reasons? If he wasn't forced to go to college for a year by the NBA, he'd be in the league already, where his development would be accelerated relative to spending a season in college playing against (mostly) non-NBA talent. He seems like a wonderful young man who deserves to have the best possible professional career. I for one hope it starts as soon as possible.

JetpackJesus
02-13-2015, 08:26 PM
I would be comfortable with Okafor staying more than one year at Duke.

hudlow
02-13-2015, 08:28 PM
I'm curious... why do we want Okafor to stay for another season at Duke, other than for completely selfish reasons? If he wasn't forced to go to college for a year by the NBA, he'd be in the league already, where his development would be accelerated relative to spending a season in college playing against (mostly) non-NBA talent. He seems like a wonderful young man who deserves to have the best possible professional career. I for one hope it starts as soon as possible.


I can forgive myself.

hud

4Gen
02-13-2015, 08:28 PM
The best player in the country and the best publicist imaginable for Duke University.

I'll take it.

arnie
02-13-2015, 08:30 PM
I'm curious... why do we want Okafor to stay for another season at Duke, other than for completely selfish reasons? If he wasn't forced to go to college for a year by the NBA, he'd be in the league already, where his development would be accelerated relative to spending a season in college playing against (mostly) non-NBA talent. He seems like a wonderful young man who deserves to have the best possible professional career. I for one hope it starts as soon as possible.

Using that logic we should have desired he go to Kentucky straight out of HS where he could practice every day against future NBA talent. If he (and he won't) stays at Duke another year, I'll be a fan of his decision. After all, he knows what he wants in life, not us.

bounce840
02-13-2015, 09:26 PM
Not going to happen wish it would happen it would be a nice team next year but we heard this last year with Parker

jipops
02-13-2015, 09:41 PM
Not going to happen wish it would happen it would be a nice team next year but we heard this last year with Parker

Exactly. Jabari sequel.

bounce840
02-13-2015, 09:53 PM
Bump me to another thread if you want I haven't been here in three years who do you think will stay and go off of this year's team??

bounce840
02-13-2015, 09:55 PM
Exactly. Jabari sequel. Yeah I love him got a photo with him and Tyus he's going to go and he should go he's got a pro ready game he was nice though loved him just hope Tyus and Winslow stay!!

toughbuff1
02-13-2015, 10:44 PM
I'm not sure, but I do know that if they stay there will be trouble. If they do go, however, it will be double.

subzero02
02-13-2015, 10:53 PM
You should've waited 4 years... Jk, Okafor departs tearfully after winning the national title. Winslow and Jones return for a shot at back to back rings.

Kedsy
02-13-2015, 11:16 PM
Not going to happen wish it would happen it would be a nice team next year but we heard this last year with Parker


Exactly. Jabari sequel.

All right, personally, I think he's gone after this season. But having said that, I don't quite understand the logic of statements like the above. Just because Jabari said he enjoyed being in school (something I believe he re-stated in the article that is the root of this thread) and then ended up leaving, why would that mean everyone who says they enjoy being in school is going to leave? It doesn't follow logically. And from a probability standpoint it doesn't make sense.

Certainly one can say that Jabari's experience proves that just because a player says he loves being at Duke it doesn't guarantee that he stays. But that's very different from proving the opposite -- that the fact that he said it means he's leaving -- which it clearly doesn't.

Anyway, just wanted to throw that out there.

mo.st.dukie
02-14-2015, 12:33 AM
I'm curious... why do we want Okafor to stay for another season at Duke, other than for completely selfish reasons? If he wasn't forced to go to college for a year by the NBA, he'd be in the league already, where his development would be accelerated relative to spending a season in college playing against (mostly) non-NBA talent. He seems like a wonderful young man who deserves to have the best possible professional career. I for one hope it starts as soon as possible.

I feel REALLY bad for Tim Duncan, Steve Nash, Michael Jordan, Pete Maravich, Larry Bird, Charles Barkley, Hakeem Olajuwon, Kareem Abdul-Jabarr, and Magic Johnson. Those guys were held back by having to play college basketball and never quite fully reached their potential. Had they been able to enter the league out of high school they could have been Hall of Famers and All-Time Greats.

It's a myth about development. There have been a lot of guys even in the current NBA that played multiple years of college ball and have become great NBA players. That applies to plenty of guys in this years All-Star game including Steph Curry. Conversly, there have been many players in Okafor's position coming out of high school, ranked at or near the top, entered the league and did not develop all that quickly or even all that well. Lebron could have spent 4 years in college and still be where he is at today, maybe he would just have $200 million instead of $400 million but he'd still be the best player in the league and maybe would have had better maturity in his early years.

gep
02-14-2015, 01:23 AM
Well... I think Kyle Singler is one of them. Won a NC in his junior season, ready to go after that. But being at Duke, being a senior, experiencing senior graduation... kept him at Duke for 1 extra year. Then to top it off, the NBA was on strike(?) so he went to Europe... and is in the NBA now. He may have lost millions of dollars... but I assume he's OK with his decisions...

OldPhiKap
02-14-2015, 07:01 AM
I'll be back. Like Arnold.

Bob Green
02-14-2015, 07:25 AM
Okafor and Winslow are gone. The jury is still out on Tyus Jones. For my sanity, I'm planning on all three being gone, gone, gone so if Tyus returns it'll be gravy. He could use another year of development in college, but the allure of NBA millions is powerful.

conmanlhughes
02-14-2015, 07:27 AM
I made a thread similar to this one about Jabari last year around this time. Immediately chastised by mods for being "too early" and "not enjoying the season". Be prepared for something similar.

On topic, Okafor is gone, I think Winslow is 50/50 (needs work on his mid-range, but so does just about every small forward in this years draft). Tyus will porobably stay, since the year after this years draft will be especially weak on the point guard front. If he improves and a team is really desperate enough for a PG, he could be a lottery pick in two years.

We win the NC or go to the FF, all bets are off.

vick
02-14-2015, 08:30 AM
I feel REALLY bad for Tim Duncan, Steve Nash, Michael Jordan, Pete Maravich, Larry Bird, Charles Barkley, Hakeem Olajuwon, Kareem Abdul-Jabarr, and Magic Johnson. Those guys were held back by having to play college basketball and never quite fully reached their potential. Had they been able to enter the league out of high school they could have been Hall of Famers and All-Time Greats.

It's a myth about development. There have been a lot of guys even in the current NBA that played multiple years of college ball and have become great NBA players. That applies to plenty of guys in this years All-Star game including Steph Curry. Conversly, there have been many players in Okafor's position coming out of high school, ranked at or near the top, entered the league and did not develop all that quickly or even all that well. Lebron could have spent 4 years in college and still be where he is at today, maybe he would just have $200 million instead of $400 million but he'd still be the best player in the league and maybe would have had better maturity in his early years.

Nobody is saying that you can't develop in college, or even that it's not better for some players. Just that basic logic suggests that, for example, playing against NBA centers is almost certainly going to be a better teacher than practicing against Marshall Plumlee and Sean Obi.

Also, and this is an aside, but I'd certainly argue that Pete Maravich would have benefited as a player (though probably not in terms of fame) from getting out of college more quickly; perhaps he wouldn't have been quite the turnover-and-chuck-machine had he not spent so much time coached by his father.

Duke95
02-14-2015, 08:41 AM
I feel REALLY bad for Tim Duncan, Steve Nash, Michael Jordan, Pete Maravich, Larry Bird, Charles Barkley, Hakeem Olajuwon, Kareem Abdul-Jabarr, and Magic Johnson. Those guys were held back by having to play college basketball and never quite fully reached their potential. Had they been able to enter the league out of high school they could have been Hall of Famers and All-Time Greats.



I'm pretty sure the salary structure in the NBA was different when those guys entered the league. That said, I tend to agree with you on development. I think it's on an individual level. Some kids benefit from additional college development. Will Avery would have benefited. Others, like Okafor, will be NBA stars with one year in college or 4. Kyrie Irving would still have been a star if he had stayed an additional 1 or 3 years.

NM Duke Fan
02-14-2015, 08:49 AM
What really strikes me about this year is just how close the team is becoming, like a band of brothers. And relationships are extremely important to Okafor. I don't agree with those who say he is gone, end of question. Yes, the chances of him staying are low, but it is obvious his heart is very much at Duke right now. Not at all a typical one and doner personality. Who knows, maybe all 3 will all have so much fun the next several weeks and decide to come back and try to win their second national championship together. And if not... all of them already have become an integral part of the Duke basketball family

Troublemaker
02-14-2015, 08:58 AM
I'm not sure, but I do know that if they stay there will be trouble. If they do go, however, it will be double.

That Chicago Sun Times article about Jahil is such a tease, tease, tease.

MChambers
02-14-2015, 09:02 AM
What really strikes me about this year is just how close the team is becoming, like a band of brothers. And relationships are extremely important to Okafor. I don't agree with those who say he is gone, end of question. Yes, the chances of him staying are low, but it is obvious his heart is very much at Duke right now. Not at all a typical one and doner personality. Who knows, maybe all 3 will all have so much fun the next several weeks and decide to come back and try to win their second national championship together. And if not... all of them already have become an integral part of the Duke basketball family
You're saying there's a chance!

Seriously, I agree with what you wrote, but I have decided never again to think that a Duke player who would be a lottery pick will return. Someday I'll be wrong, of course.

sagegrouse
02-14-2015, 09:28 AM
We are 21-3 and #4 in the country. Why are the top two threads about who leaves AFTER the season? Can't we just play this season first?

Kindly,
Sage
'Yes, I know that my plaint bumped this thread back to the top'

OldPhiKap
02-14-2015, 09:58 AM
Why are the top two threads about who leaves AFTER the season?

Because we got tired of kentucky threads?

I'll worry about next year's team in the off-season. Lots of fun left with the one we have now.

NYBri
02-14-2015, 10:03 AM
Okafor's experience appears to be different than other DU OaDs. This team is closer and more successful than most of those. Not saying he'll stay, but he seems to be having the time of his life...and there is something to be said for that with a young man who understands what that means.

Des Esseintes
02-14-2015, 10:41 AM
What really strikes me about this year is just how close the team is becoming, like a band of brothers. And relationships are extremely important to Okafor. I don't agree with those who say he is gone, end of question. Yes, the chances of him staying are low, but it is obvious his heart is very much at Duke right now. Not at all a typical one and doner personality. Who knows, maybe all 3 will all have so much fun the next several weeks and decide to come back and try to win their second national championship together. And if not... all of them already have become an integral part of the Duke basketball family

1. Band of brothers, eh? You and the team hang out a lot?

2. What is a "typical one and doner personality"? You hang out with a lot of players gifted enough at basketball to jump to the NBA after their freshman seasons? You've identified a personality common to all of them except Okafor?

Please tell me more about these things!

conmanlhughes
02-14-2015, 11:05 AM
We are 21-3 and #4 in the country. Why are the top two threads about who leaves AFTER the season? Can't we just play this season first?

Kindly,
Sage
'Yes, I know that my plaint bumped this thread back to the top'

Because people like looking ahead? Wanting to see if the current success will continue? I don't understand complaining about people's threads. All of us have the option of what to and not to read.

jimsumner
02-14-2015, 11:09 AM
The graduation of Austin Rivers after this season will open up the floor next season for senior Rodney Hood, junior Jabari Parker and sophomores Okafor, Winslow and Jones.

Should be interesting.

NashvilleDevil
02-14-2015, 12:21 PM
We are 21-3 and #4 in the country. Why are the top two threads about who leaves AFTER the season? Can't we just play this season first?

Kindly,
Sage
'Yes, I know that my plaint bumped this thread back to the top'

Thank you

NSDukeFan
02-15-2015, 10:47 AM
The graduation of Austin Rivers after this season will open up the floor next season for senior Rodney Hood, junior Jabari Parker and sophomores Okafor, Winslow and Jones.

Should be interesting.

Wouldn't that be nice.