PDA

View Full Version : MBB: Georgia Tech @ Duke, February 4, 7 pm (ESPN2)



MChambers
02-02-2015, 12:39 PM
Can't believe no one has started this yet. The Rambling Wreck has a poor record, but has been competitive in a lot of games in ACC play. Discuss away.

CDu
02-02-2015, 01:26 PM
Georgia Tech is an interesting team. They are not necessarily terrible (though losing at home to South Carolina Upstate isn't exactly good for your resume), but they aren't any good either. They seem to find a way to play games close. All but 3 games have been within 15 points, and all but 5 ACC games have been within 10 points. In the ACC, aside from the blowout loss to UVa and the shocking blowout win over Miami, every game has been a battle.

The Jackets struggle to score. They are #151 in offensive efficiency, and they have only two guys who can score with any consistency. Marcus Georges-Hunt is an NBA-caliber talent at SG/SF. He is strong and athletic and loves to score by attacking the rim. He is a terrible outside shooter, though. Charles Mitchell (formerly of Maryland) is a widebody inside who can score around the rim and can rebound quite well. But he is extremely sloppy with the ball, committing 2.5 turnovers per game.

After that, it is a whole lot of "meh." They have a pair of PGs (Heath and Jorgenson) who are good at protecting the ball and passing, but are nonfactors as scorers. They have a younger version of Charles Mitchell in Demarco Cox. Quinton Stephens is their only viable 3pt shooter, and is an odd matchup at 6'9", 190. Though against us (with guys like Matt Jones, Winslow, and Jefferson available), he's not a threat.

Basically, Tech is an okay defensive team (though not great at it). They can rebound well, and they don't make too too many mistakes. But they really only have 2 or 3 guys (if you count Cox) that can hurt you offensively, and they aren't going to force turnovers or get transition points, so there aren't a lot of ways for them to beat you.

If I had to say how they could beat us, it would be by punishing Jefferson and Winslow with a big-bodied PF. But if ever there was an opponent that screamed "play zone!", this might be it.

Troublemaker
02-02-2015, 03:24 PM
Several of Coach K's moves in the UVA game raised interesting questions going forward.

(1) Is the predominant lineup for Duke starting to be the Okafor-Winslow-MJones-Cook-TJones lineup? We've played two straight games of mostly smallball now. If we do it again vs GaTech, that's a trend.

(2) Was the 3-2 zone a one-time curveball thrown to try to win against an unbeaten team on the road? Or will we see it regularly mixed in with our m2m and 2-3 zone defenses going forward? Is the 3-2 zone Coach K's compromise between playing zone but still guarding the 3-pt line? Does that mean Coach K plans on shifting Duke towards zone more and more as the season progresses, flipping between 2-3 and 3-2 as needed?

(3) Is Grayson going to continue to get 10 min/gm? I guess this ties into #1. If smallball becomes the preferred lineup, then Grayson is needed to provide rest for the four other "smalls" at the very least. And if his 3-pt stroke can heat up, he'll be a scary weapon off the bench for Duke.

jv001
02-02-2015, 05:21 PM
Several of Coach K's moves in the UVA game raised interesting questions going forward.

(1) Is the predominant lineup for Duke starting to be the Okafor-Winslow-MJones-Cook-TJones lineup? We've played two straight games of mostly smallball now. If we do it again vs GaTech, that's a trend.

(2) Was the 3-2 zone a one-time curveball thrown to try to win against an unbeaten team on the road? Or will we see it regularly mixed in with our m2m and 2-3 zone defenses going forward? Is the 3-2 zone Coach K's compromise between playing zone but still guarding the 3-pt line? Does that mean Coach K plans on shifting Duke towards zone more and more as the season progresses, flipping between 2-3 and 3-2 as needed?

(3) Is Grayson going to continue to get 10 min/gm? I guess this ties into #1. If smallball becomes the preferred lineup, then Grayson is needed to provide rest for the four other "smalls" at the very least. And if his 3-pt stroke can heat up, he'll be a scary weapon off the bench for Duke.

Three very good questions.
1) I believe that we see Amile and Matt sharing minutes that are determined by who we're playing. There are times that Amile can be the recipient of Jahlil passes out of a double team. Then there are times that will not work. It didn't against Virginia. Those type games Matt will get more minutes than Amile.
2) As for Grayson, I believe that depends on how he does in practice and how he does the first time he enters into the game. I think he might be on a short leash.
3) I believe we'll see the zones and man to man and Coach K will adjust according to how well we're defending in a particular defense.GoDuke!

brevity
02-03-2015, 11:38 PM
How is it we don't already have a thread previewing our next game?

Bumped, so people will never have to realize that DBR's main forum has more than one page. The things we do to protect others from the cold truth.

ncexnyc
02-03-2015, 11:50 PM
Bumped, so people will never have to realize that DBR's main forum has more than one page. The things we do to protect others from the cold truth.
That was funny:D

Bob Green
02-04-2015, 04:50 AM
Duke is currently a 16.5 points favorite in Las Vegas.

OldPhiKap
02-04-2015, 07:27 AM
Duke is currently a 16.5 points favorite in Las Vegas.

And probably favored by even more in Cameron!

(Sorry, dumb joke)

Given our shortened roster, there is not much room for error in any game left this season. I expect a tough game.

dukelifer
02-04-2015, 08:50 AM
Duke is currently a 16.5 points favorite in Las Vegas.

I expect Duke to win but that is a big margin.

MChambers
02-04-2015, 09:22 AM
I expect Duke to win but that is a big margin.
Sagarin actually suggests about a 20 point margin. I don't know what KenPom "predicts", if you will, because I don't subscribe to his premium service, but I wouldn't think it would be all that different than Sagarin.

I agree with you that it seems big, just because Tech has been close in a lot of games this year. Hope Sagarin is right and we can all relax while watching.

Troublemaker
02-04-2015, 09:25 AM
Kenpom has it at 14. 76-62 Duke

But, I say Duke is on an upward swing right now, having survived the crucible of the past week and a half, and becoming a better team for the experience. So Duke covers the 16.5 and we can relax.

AIRFORCEDUKIE
02-04-2015, 09:29 AM
Keep in mind this is not a prediction, just a hope. All respect to the basketball gods and all that jazz. I am hoping Duke comes out focused and ready for this game. Now is the time to set a tone of winning and dominance. We got the big win at UVA, now its time to build on that momentum. We need to force the pace of this game and make GT play our game. Then we need to carry that confidence into the Notre Dame game. Time to become the team that we want to be in March. Sure we can still adjust and we can still grow, but the tone we set over the next few weeks will pay off big time when tournament time comes around.

Also I want to see Winslow stay aggressive and keep putting pressure on the defense with his athleticism.

tbyers11
02-04-2015, 09:35 AM
Sagarin actually suggests about a 20 point margin. I don't know what KenPom "predicts", if you will, because I don't subscribe to his premium service, but I wouldn't think it would be all that different than Sagarin.

I agree with you that it seems big, just because Tech has been close in a lot of games this year. Hope Sagarin is right and we can all relax while watching.

I see Sagarin predictor with Duke by 18. Pomeroy predicts Duke by 14, 76-62. I think Pomeroy is overvaluing GT a bit because of their 20 point blowout @ Miami last week. That recent result bumped them quite a bit in his system and I think it is a bit of an outlier.

FWIW, Pomeroy was also undervaluing Duke compared to Vegas lines for our each of our last 3 contests (SJU, ND, UVa). Usually, his model is within a point or 2 of Vegas but in each of those games, it had Duke 4-5 points worse than the Vegas line. For example, he favored UVa by 11 while the line was around 6. Do with that as you will :D

DavidBenAkiva
02-04-2015, 09:58 AM
But if ever there was an opponent that screamed "play zone!", this might be it.

Looking at their games and stats, these were my exact thoughts. This team can't shoot. They shoot a collective 25.7% from 3 and only 68% from the free throw line. When they played Virginia, they scored 28 points. When they played Syracuse, they lost by one but only put up 45 points. UVA, as we know, likes to keep at least four guys along the baseline on defense. I expect that we will go zone or play a lot of Okafor and Plumlee.

Overall, I'd like to see the following in the game:
1) Build a comfortable lead in the first half
2) Grayson Allen get 15+ minutes of playing time (will only happen if #1 occurs)
3) Maintain a big lead in the second half

This Georgia Tech team has lost a lot of close games, even against good teams. I would rather not play them close.

MChambers
02-04-2015, 10:22 AM
I see Sagarin predictor with Duke by 18. Pomeroy predicts Duke by 14, 76-62. I think Pomeroy is overvaluing GT a bit because of their 20 point blowout @ Miami last week. That recent result bumped them quite a bit in his system and I think it is a bit of an outlier.

FWIW, Pomeroy was also undervaluing Duke compared to Vegas lines for our each of our last 3 contests (SJU, ND, UVa). Usually, his model is within a point or 2 of Vegas but in each of those games, it had Duke 4-5 points worse than the Vegas line. For example, he favored UVa by 11 while the line was around 6. Do with that as you will :D
Just to show my work on Sagarin, I took Duke's "rating" (the blend of his three systems) at 93.98, subtracted GT's 77.91, got 16.07, added 4 for home court, and came up with about 20. Looks like if I went off the Predictor/Pure Points methods, I'd have Duke winning by 14.79 + 4, or 18.79.

Either way, I'd be happy to see our boys win by 18 or 20.

tbyers11
02-04-2015, 10:38 AM
Just to show my work on Sagarin, I took Duke's "rating" (the blend of his three systems) at 93.98, subtracted GT's 77.91, got 16.07, added 4 for home court, and came up with about 20. Looks like if I went off the Predictor/Pure Points methods, I'd have Duke winning by 14.79 + 4, or 18.79.

Either way, I'd be happy to see our boys win by 18 or 20.

Cool. No worries. It is a requirement that we show our math work here at DBR :D

Don't know which Sagarin page you are looking at but this one (http://sagarin.com/sports/cbsend.htm) lists not only the "blend" and the three individual ratings but the different values to use for home court for each (3.45 for Predictor). When I did exactly what you did with just Predictor I got 18.24
/dork math

I agree that we likely see a lot of zone and/or Twin towers lineup. I hope we get a biggish lead in the first half. If so, I hope we work hard to maintain the lead and try to avoid longish poor periods of play after we seem to have gotten the "working" margin. That is my biggest "goal" for the game tonight.

I also am very interested in Troublemaker's point above about whether Matt Jones/Amile is the preferred 5th option in the lineup

Neals384
02-04-2015, 02:44 PM
Several of Coach K's moves in the UVA game raised interesting questions going forward.

(1) Is the predominant lineup for Duke starting to be the Okafor-Winslow-MJones-Cook-TJones lineup? We've played two straight games of mostly smallball now. If we do it again vs GaTech, that's a trend.



In conference play, that lineup is +32 in 42 minutes of court time. The starters are -7 in 95 minutes. Of course, the starters are up against the other team's starters.

It's little baffling to me - who would you rather have out there - Matt or Amile. Amile (by a mile). But the numbers say Matt.

Kedsy
02-04-2015, 02:55 PM
Amile (by a mile).

I see what you did there.

peterjswift
02-04-2015, 03:11 PM
I see what you did there.

See, this is why we don't need the metric system in the US.

jhmoss1812
02-04-2015, 03:39 PM
If you guys lose to GT, I'll just comment that teams always get up for UVA only to fall flat after beating us ;)

AIRFORCEDUKIE
02-04-2015, 03:47 PM
If you guys lose to GT, I'll just comment that teams always get up for UVA only to fall flat after beating us ;)

well played sir... THE UVA CURSE

jhmoss1812
02-04-2015, 03:49 PM
well played sir... THE UVA CURSE

In all honesty, GT was one of the worst shooting teams I had seen this season when they played UVA. Keep them off the offensive glass and it'll be a blowout. Duke wins 77-53

riverside6
02-04-2015, 06:40 PM
Live tempo-based stats for Duke/Georgia Tech, starters posted...

http://www.scacchoops.com/georgia-tech-at-duke-basketball-live-stats-02042015

wgl1228
02-04-2015, 07:08 PM
Ugly start. Okafor trying to force things.

tas11244
02-04-2015, 07:12 PM
I'm a bit upset seeing so many empty seats in section 17. I'm an iron duke and wasn't offered tickets for this game, does anyone know why tickets weren't offered?

subzero02
02-04-2015, 07:36 PM
No Justise... No peace... Glad to see him running the floor like a gazelle again.

wgl1228
02-04-2015, 07:59 PM
Uninspired first half. Defensive issues as usual. Jekyl and Hyde offense each time down court.

Devilwin
02-04-2015, 08:00 PM
Bad way to end the half- two turnovers, four Tech points. And giving up too many easy shots-again!
But I expect this to be discussed at halftime.

ChrisP
02-04-2015, 08:07 PM
Should have been up at least 8 at half (maybe 10). Not surprised at a bit of a letdown but also not happy about it, either. Would love to see more focused effort.

subzero02
02-04-2015, 08:08 PM
Georgia Tech shot 54 percent for the half... Unacceptable

subzero02
02-04-2015, 08:10 PM
K wasn't happy with the crowd... I must agree with him

Brockt10
02-04-2015, 08:17 PM
This team confuses me

jipops
02-04-2015, 08:18 PM
It's a bad sign when our best defense is hitting the 3.

kmspeaks
02-04-2015, 08:19 PM
Under 15 left and still no zone. Is Coach K trying to spite all of us who thought this was the perfect matchup for the zone?

FerryFor50
02-04-2015, 08:26 PM
Wow. Guy who's 5-53 from 3 hits one after a loose ball scrum.

Weird game.

subzero02
02-04-2015, 08:27 PM
Our front court needs to boxout better...

Karl Beem
02-04-2015, 08:27 PM
Good Lord. I suppose we can't play defense.

KandG
02-04-2015, 08:28 PM
Under 15 left and still no zone. Is Coach K trying to spite all of us who thought this was the perfect matchup for the zone?

Baffled by this all game. Plus running traps with Marshall is only going to get you so far beyond a handful of possessions. Tech burning the traps and making this a tough game.

SCMatt33
02-04-2015, 08:29 PM
GT shoots 25% on the year from three. There are only TWO teams in the entire country worse than them, but they're 5-7 so far tonight. Really???

Les Grossman
02-04-2015, 08:31 PM
is there a chat stream on this one?

jwillfan
02-04-2015, 08:32 PM
is there a chat stream on this one?
http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/misc.php?do=cchatbox

subzero02
02-04-2015, 08:32 PM
Was that Semi behind the bench in street clothes?

Les Grossman
02-04-2015, 08:33 PM
http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/misc.php?do=cchatbox
beaucoup!

arnie
02-04-2015, 08:36 PM
Wow. Guy who's 5-53 from 3 hits one after a loose ball scrum.

Weird game.

I don't get it either - guess GA T isnt good enough for us to destroy.

subzero02
02-04-2015, 08:44 PM
Here comes the zone...

cruxer
02-04-2015, 08:51 PM
GaTech must have hit 3 or more of those 3s on scramble plays where we actually made something good happen on d but couldn't come up with the loose ball. Crazy.

gurufrisbee
02-04-2015, 08:52 PM
That was a clean block. Some of these calls/no calls are just ridiculous. It's like the refs have a bet to make Duke the most dangerous 4 seed ever.

It doesn't hurt that the three point shooting for both teams defies logic tonight.