sagegrouse
01-31-2015, 01:26 PM
Our Phase IV Redux occurs after the 77-73 loss at Notre Dame and the astonishing dismissal of Rasheed Sulaimon from the team. How do things look from here? We need to take another look at Phase IV, which I am happy to do. The question is, do I get overtime pay?
Phase III, from BC to Pitt, Was a Roller-Coaster Ride. An undefeated Duke team suffers two crashing defeats and then responds with resounding victories at Top Ten Louisville and at home against a feisty Pitt team. Finally, the Devils deliver Coach K’s win number 1,000 with a heroic comeback against a tough and physical St. John’s team.
What Next after Rasheed? The last four games Rasheed averaged 20 minutes and five points. He was effective on offense mostly against Pitt (13 points). He didn’t score against the Cardinals and had a horrible game – save one beautiful steal and dunk – against the Irish. At his best Rasheed was the most dynamic player on the court. You could tell when he entered the game, just by his movement. He was at times an effective scorer on the break and from outside.
After Rasheed? Well, his 20 minutes per game have to go somewhere. Matt Jones (17 MPG) will get a few. The starters may play a bit more. I expect Marshall and Grayson to get more minutes, but I doubt that Grayson sees a lot of time on the floor against the Wahoos’ defense. Amile is averaging only 23 MPG and Justise is averaging 27. Both should show an increase in minutes and, in the right situations, Justise can play the shooting guard positions.
Will Duke Remain Free from Further Injuries? Well, we have had injuries – two to the same player, Justise Winslow, who has been hobbled by rib and shoulder injuries. He was effective, however, Notre Dame and continued improvement is essential for Phase IV. We cannot afford the loss of a key player from now on. There is one proven sub in the back court and one in the front court. This team is as thin as the 2010 team, and we know how that turned out. Wait! We like how that turned out! On injuries, so far so good. The injury bug has bugged out and we hope it remains in seclusion. Justise Winslow is banged up but should recover by the St. John’s game.
Will the Roller Coaster Ride Continue? OMG! It definitely has continued with an emotional loss to Notre Dame and the loss of Rasheed. The Notre Dame game was definitely winnable if we make our shots within two feet of the basket and 70 percent of our free throws.
The question is, “Have we now adjusted to the intensity of conference play and sail ahead or are more stormy seas ahead?” I think the team has emerged from a “trial by fire” and will play well in the games ahead. But playing well doesn’t guarantee a win against undefeated Virginia at the JPJ Arena. This is the latest in a number of strong tests for the Young Devils in this most interesting season. We feel good about the game, but… but Virginia is very tough and has had six days to prepare for Duke. In addition to lock-down defense, Virginia is shooting 39.5 percent from three-point range, just a shade a below Notre Dame. Can Duke’s offense, especially Jahlil on the inside and Quinn and Tyus on the outside, overcome the Cavalier defense?
Following Virginia, the Devils return home against Georgia Tech and (again) Notre Dame. The Notre Dame game will be huge for both teams, and I expect ND to play really well in Cameron. The fifth game in Phase IV is a visit to unpredictable Florida State. Then we have two big matchups: a visit to the Carrier Dome, where Duke lost in overtime last year and where the Devils face the Orange for the first time since Boeheim’s big blowup in Cameron last year. Then we host UNC on February 18. As of today, four-loss UNC (#8) is ahead of Duke (#9) in the KenPom rankings.
If Duke goes 4-3 or worse in Phase IV, then it has at least five losses and is likely headed for a Wednesday game in the ACC Tournament.
Whither the Defense? How much zone will we see? Will the defense improve as we enter the second half of the season? Will we miss the presence of Rasheed?
Of course, match-ups are important. Virginia is shooting 48.1 percent and 39.4% from three. Looks like man-to-man to this oracle. We should see some zone against the Hoos. If coach K wants to keep working on the zone, he has upcoming foes Georgia Tech and FSU, who are the poorest three-point shooters in the ACC (and the NCAA) at about 26%.
But let’s face it; we went to the zone because we were getting killed in man-to-man. A measure of the development of this Duke team is the reassertion of an effective MTM defense. These developments bear close watching.
Offense! Offense! Offense! That’s what the fans like, including the Grouse, and so does K. Our defense, he says, is better when we are making shots. Obvious explanations are (a) the run-out possibilities when opponents rebound our misses and (b) the psychological effects on both teams.
The first thing to be said about the Duke offense is that we are really going to miss Jahlil Okafor after this season. What a load! He will need other players to be productive on offense to remain consistent, but he seems to be money-in-the-bank on offense. And he is doing better at drawing fouls and making free throws. He is averaging eight FT’s a game in conference play and making over 70%.
Duke’s three-point shooting has been up-and-down in conference play. Here’s the series for the first six ACC games: 43%, 44%, 29%, 29%, 27%, and 48%. The outlier is our win at Louisville despite poor shooting from outside. These games were followed by 37% against St. John’s and 44% against Notre Dame. For the season Duke is fourth in the conference at 37.7%, which is a good percentage. Clearly 3-pt. percentage will be important going forward. As Earl Weaver used to say, “Doctor Longball!”
Free-throw shooting has become an asset. Duke is averaging 73.9 percent in ACC play, helped by Jah’s improvement. Quinn and Tyus have been outstanding at the line.
The Intangibles. Will Duke assert its will against other ACC teams on a consistent basis? This is the test for the freshman-laden Blue Devils in Phase IV.
Go Devils!
Sage Grouse
Phase III, from BC to Pitt, Was a Roller-Coaster Ride. An undefeated Duke team suffers two crashing defeats and then responds with resounding victories at Top Ten Louisville and at home against a feisty Pitt team. Finally, the Devils deliver Coach K’s win number 1,000 with a heroic comeback against a tough and physical St. John’s team.
What Next after Rasheed? The last four games Rasheed averaged 20 minutes and five points. He was effective on offense mostly against Pitt (13 points). He didn’t score against the Cardinals and had a horrible game – save one beautiful steal and dunk – against the Irish. At his best Rasheed was the most dynamic player on the court. You could tell when he entered the game, just by his movement. He was at times an effective scorer on the break and from outside.
After Rasheed? Well, his 20 minutes per game have to go somewhere. Matt Jones (17 MPG) will get a few. The starters may play a bit more. I expect Marshall and Grayson to get more minutes, but I doubt that Grayson sees a lot of time on the floor against the Wahoos’ defense. Amile is averaging only 23 MPG and Justise is averaging 27. Both should show an increase in minutes and, in the right situations, Justise can play the shooting guard positions.
Will Duke Remain Free from Further Injuries? Well, we have had injuries – two to the same player, Justise Winslow, who has been hobbled by rib and shoulder injuries. He was effective, however, Notre Dame and continued improvement is essential for Phase IV. We cannot afford the loss of a key player from now on. There is one proven sub in the back court and one in the front court. This team is as thin as the 2010 team, and we know how that turned out. Wait! We like how that turned out! On injuries, so far so good. The injury bug has bugged out and we hope it remains in seclusion. Justise Winslow is banged up but should recover by the St. John’s game.
Will the Roller Coaster Ride Continue? OMG! It definitely has continued with an emotional loss to Notre Dame and the loss of Rasheed. The Notre Dame game was definitely winnable if we make our shots within two feet of the basket and 70 percent of our free throws.
The question is, “Have we now adjusted to the intensity of conference play and sail ahead or are more stormy seas ahead?” I think the team has emerged from a “trial by fire” and will play well in the games ahead. But playing well doesn’t guarantee a win against undefeated Virginia at the JPJ Arena. This is the latest in a number of strong tests for the Young Devils in this most interesting season. We feel good about the game, but… but Virginia is very tough and has had six days to prepare for Duke. In addition to lock-down defense, Virginia is shooting 39.5 percent from three-point range, just a shade a below Notre Dame. Can Duke’s offense, especially Jahlil on the inside and Quinn and Tyus on the outside, overcome the Cavalier defense?
Following Virginia, the Devils return home against Georgia Tech and (again) Notre Dame. The Notre Dame game will be huge for both teams, and I expect ND to play really well in Cameron. The fifth game in Phase IV is a visit to unpredictable Florida State. Then we have two big matchups: a visit to the Carrier Dome, where Duke lost in overtime last year and where the Devils face the Orange for the first time since Boeheim’s big blowup in Cameron last year. Then we host UNC on February 18. As of today, four-loss UNC (#8) is ahead of Duke (#9) in the KenPom rankings.
If Duke goes 4-3 or worse in Phase IV, then it has at least five losses and is likely headed for a Wednesday game in the ACC Tournament.
Whither the Defense? How much zone will we see? Will the defense improve as we enter the second half of the season? Will we miss the presence of Rasheed?
Of course, match-ups are important. Virginia is shooting 48.1 percent and 39.4% from three. Looks like man-to-man to this oracle. We should see some zone against the Hoos. If coach K wants to keep working on the zone, he has upcoming foes Georgia Tech and FSU, who are the poorest three-point shooters in the ACC (and the NCAA) at about 26%.
But let’s face it; we went to the zone because we were getting killed in man-to-man. A measure of the development of this Duke team is the reassertion of an effective MTM defense. These developments bear close watching.
Offense! Offense! Offense! That’s what the fans like, including the Grouse, and so does K. Our defense, he says, is better when we are making shots. Obvious explanations are (a) the run-out possibilities when opponents rebound our misses and (b) the psychological effects on both teams.
The first thing to be said about the Duke offense is that we are really going to miss Jahlil Okafor after this season. What a load! He will need other players to be productive on offense to remain consistent, but he seems to be money-in-the-bank on offense. And he is doing better at drawing fouls and making free throws. He is averaging eight FT’s a game in conference play and making over 70%.
Duke’s three-point shooting has been up-and-down in conference play. Here’s the series for the first six ACC games: 43%, 44%, 29%, 29%, 27%, and 48%. The outlier is our win at Louisville despite poor shooting from outside. These games were followed by 37% against St. John’s and 44% against Notre Dame. For the season Duke is fourth in the conference at 37.7%, which is a good percentage. Clearly 3-pt. percentage will be important going forward. As Earl Weaver used to say, “Doctor Longball!”
Free-throw shooting has become an asset. Duke is averaging 73.9 percent in ACC play, helped by Jah’s improvement. Quinn and Tyus have been outstanding at the line.
The Intangibles. Will Duke assert its will against other ACC teams on a consistent basis? This is the test for the freshman-laden Blue Devils in Phase IV.
Go Devils!
Sage Grouse