Next play - what do we do defensively to turn the season around

[Teton Jack]

Friends, I share the distress all of us have experienced at the news of Rasheed's dismissal. I had very high hopes for him and I can only wish him the best in the future. Nevertheless, Coach K's decision has been made. It's time to move on.

This evening on the drive home, I listened to a Nashville sports station interviewing Eddie Fogler of Vanderbilt and UNC fame. The host raised the question about Duke and its recent losses. Could Duke still compete for the ACC championship? Fogler's response was to ask the question back, "Coach K is a man-to-man defense coach. Why do you think he's playing so much zone? Because Duke isn't a good defensive squad." He went on to say Duke is a good offensive team, but it's not good at defense. He added that Jahlil is a great offensive player, but he's not that good of a defender. Looking at the past, we have never had great success unless our team has played good defense. How do we turn that around? Grayson is an offensive player, but if our defense is to turn around, our bench play isn't going to give him many minutes. I see 7 players getting more time and K turning up the pressure on the guards to stop dribble penetration and getting everyone to communicate and play team defense. What do ya'll think?

Teton Jack

[UrinalCake]

First thought is that we play more zone, but that is tough to do with Cook and Tyus being so short. So I'm wondering if will see Cook and Tyus platoon some, with Matt Jones and Grayson filling the other guard spots. This will also help us offensively - Rasheed was well suited to running point with the nominal second team, because he can dominate the ball and create his own shot in a lineup without any other scorers. But now, we can't take both Tyus and Cook off the court at the same time because we won't score.

Overall I don't think we make any drastic changes like playing the twin towers for 20 minutes a game. I think we'll still mix in zone and m2m depending on matchups, and that Matt and Grayson take Rasheed's 20 mpg.

[Kedsy]

First thought is that we play more zone, but that is tough to do with Cook and Tyus being so short. So I'm wondering if will see Cook and Tyus platoon some, with Matt Jones and Grayson filling the other guard spots. This will also help us offensively - Rasheed was well suited to running point with the nominal second team, because he can dominate the ball and create his own shot in a lineup without any other scorers. But now, we can't take both Tyus and Cook off the court at the same time because we won't score.

Overall I don't think we make any drastic changes like playing the twin towers for 20 minutes a game. I think we'll still mix in zone and m2m depending on matchups, and that Matt and Grayson take Rasheed's 20 mpg.

I'm not necessarily convinced of anything at this point. It's possible Grayson and Marshall both move up to 10 mpg or it's possible, as you say, that Matt's minutes increase and Grayson picks up the rest.

That said, my guess is, absent foul trouble and/or injury, the four starters other than Jahlil, as well as Matt (and possibly Marshall, too) all increase their minutes, and Grayson maybe moves from playing 2 mpg (as he has in January) to 4 mpg, leading to speculation on DBR that our starters are going to wear out from playing too many minutes.

[gumbomoop]

.... my guess is, absent foul trouble and/or injury, the four starters other than Jahlil, as well as Matt (and possibly Marshall, too) all increase their minutes, and Grayson maybe moves from playing 2 mpg (as he has in January) to 4 mpg, leading to speculation on DBR that our starters are going to wear out from playing too many minutes.

Agree, mostly.

We're very likely to see Tyus and Quinn each play 37-38 minutes in close games. Tyus controls our destiny, and Quinn can hit a few key 3's. If Justise, who seemed healthier v. ND, is in fact gradually working through his shoulder and rib problems, his play on both D and O will be crucial; his minutes will go up to 30+/game. Jahlil probably maxes out at 30 or so. Marshall and Amile each get extra minutes, as Justise will now only briefly, maybe rarely, play the 4. I don't expect Matt's minutes to go up much at all, but he still will be expectd to play 16-18/game. As Kedsy says, Grayson may play a bit more, but not a lot more. Unless, given a chance in some upcoming game, he shines, seems to be way more comfortable, and suddenly provides K a legit 8th rotation player. I hope it happens, but I don't expect it.

In any particular game, foul problems will cause havoc with the above guesses. Trouble for Amile might necessitate Justise rather than Marshall moving to the 4, in turn requiring more minutes for Matt, or an extended appearance for Grayson.

Before this awful development, my major obsession was mediocre FT-shooting by Jahlil, Amile, and Justise. In games, however, when Duke leads in last 2 minutes, I expect to see Justise and the 4 guards. Will obviously depend on the exact lead, but if we have the ball up by 5 with 1:36 left, K will use his best FT-shooters. Possibly -- I can't quite believe this -- Marshall and the 4 guards.

Apologies for focusing on PT rather than D. I just assume we'll see mostly M2M, some zone, not picking up so high. As against ND, we may have to try to win with efficient O, expecting that to frustrate opponents enough that our mediocre D won't kill us.

[Edouble]

Agree, mostly.

We're very likely to see Tyus and Quinn each play 37-38 minutes in close games. Tyus controls our destiny, and Quinn can hit a few key 3's. If Justise, who seemed healthier v. ND, is in fact gradually working through his shoulder and rib problems, his play on both D and O will be crucial; his minutes will go up to 30+/game. Jahlil probably maxes out at 30 or so. Marshall and Amile each get extra minutes, as Justise will now only briefly, maybe rarely, play the 4. I don't expect Matt's minutes to go up much at all, but he still will be expectd to play 16-18/game. As Kedsy says, Grayson may play a bit more, but not a lot more. Unless, given a chance in some upcoming game, he shines, seems to be way more comfortable, and suddenly provides K a legit 8th rotation player. I hope it happens, but I don't expect it.

In any particular game, foul problems will cause havoc with the above guesses. Trouble for Amile might necessitate Justise rather than Marshall moving to the 4, in turn requiring more minutes for Matt, or an extended appearance for Grayson.

Before this awful development, my major obsession was mediocre FT-shooting by Jahlil, Amile, and Justise. In games, however, when Duke leads in last 2 minutes, I expect to see Justise and the 4 guards. Will obviously depend on the exact lead, but if we have the ball up by 5 with 1:36 left, K will use his best FT-shooters. Possibly -- I can't quite believe this -- Marshall and the 4 guards.

Apologies for focusing on PT rather than D. I just assume we'll see mostly M2M, some zone, not picking up so high. As against ND, we may have to try to win with efficient O, expecting that to frustrate opponents enough that our mediocre D won't kill us.

That ain't how destiny works, boss. But I agree... the team goes as Tyus goes.

[throatybeard]

What do y'all think?

I think I'd like to see an opposing fast break during which more than two of our guys get back on D instead of standing around admiring a bricked three.

[jv001]

I think I'd like to see an opposing fast break during which more than two of our guys get back on D instead of standing around admiring a bricked three.

That's a fact, Jack! Great point. Almost everyone on the team is guilty of this at some point in the game. Some do it more in games than others. Too much celebrating a three/dunk or head hanging after a miss. Get the $%## back down court. GoDuke!

[gumbomoop]

That ain't how destiny works, boss. But I agree... the team goes as Tyus goes.

I guess I mixed the metaphor, except that Tyus probably doesn't control our fate, either. Your friendly correction reminds me that the team is neither destined, predestined, nor fated to end the season in any particular way. It all depends.

Substantially, not to say solely, on Tyus. To be a little more specific, he has to be a very good scoring PG. Helps so much when he hits a pull-up jumper, a 3, and when he gets some FT chances. Solid A/TO. Can't allow multiple O-sets that neglect Jahlil. And has to get the ball to Jahlil at the right time, in the right spot.

[CDu]

I suspect that we'll play Matt Jones a lot more now (he was only playing 17 mpg; I'd expect him to play starter's minutes now). I expect Winslow will push up over 30 mpg now. I expect Jefferson will go from his 20-25 to 25-30 more regularly now. And I think Cook and Tyus Jones will play 35+ mpg consistently the rest of the way. I wouldn't expect Plumlee and Allen to see a huge jump in minutes, but both will be asked to play a bit more now.

In other words, I expect the rotation to become essentially a 6.5 man rotation, with Plumlee and Allen providing spot minutes as needed. The "as needed" will be a bit more frequent, as foul trouble (or injuries) will force Coach K's hand sometimes.

But remember that Coach K has often gone with a 6.5 man rotation in close games anyway. So this isn't entirely new.

What it does do is put a lot more pressure on guys like Winslow, Jefferson, and (especially) Matt Jones to step up offensively, as now we have no consistent offensive threat off the bench to support Cook, Tyus Jones, and Okafor's scoring efforts.

[burnspbesq]

Wait, what? A 17-3 season needs to be "turned around?"

[jv001]

I suspect that we'll play Matt Jones a lot more now (he was only playing 17 mpg; I'd expect him to play starter's minutes now). I expect Winslow will push up over 30 mpg now. I expect Jefferson will go from his 20-25 to 25-30 more regularly now. And I think Cook and Tyus Jones will play 35+ mpg consistently the rest of the way. I wouldn't expect Plumlee and Allen to see a huge jump in minutes, but both will be asked to play a bit more now.

In other words, I expect the rotation to become essentially a 6.5 man rotation, with Plumlee and Allen providing spot minutes as needed. The "as needed" will be a bit more frequent, as foul trouble (or injuries) will force Coach K's hand sometimes.

But remember that Coach K has often gone with a 6.5 man rotation in close games anyway. So this isn't entirely new.

What it does do is put a lot more pressure on guys like Winslow, Jefferson, and (especially) Matt Jones to step up offensively, as now we have no consistent offensive threat off the bench to support Cook, Tyus Jones, and Okafor's scoring efforts.

I sub'd at our Christian School today and had time during classes to guess at minutes for our 8 rotation players. I sort of agree with your post regarding minutes, but what do you think Jahlil's minutes will look like? The reason I ask is there are two things to consider. One, will Jahlil be more effective playing around 30-33 minutes or 36-38 minutes. The second thing to consider is, will he be taken out at the end of close games because of his poor foul shooting. We've seen it happen in two losses this season. I don't think we have to worry about Quinn and Tyus's minutes because they seem to be in great shape. But someone the size of Jahlil probably needs more rest than our guards. One other thing you mention is for players to step up on the offensive end of the court and I agree 100%. Do you think the added pressure will affect Matt's confidence. He's not a great shooter to begin with. I think the rotation against Virginia will be shortened and therefore Grayson probably won't see much action if any. But after he's had more practice time and if he does well, he might get some minutes. GoDuke!

[DukieTiger]

Wait, what? A 17-3 season needs to be "turned around?"

A 4-3 ACC season, maybe. Heck, we may be trailing Clemson in the ACC standings by Sunday (I doubt it- think Clemson "Clemsons" vs. BC). They definitely need to circle the wagons, come together and find some sort of spark.

That's really the frustrating thing about all of this (apart from the obvious sadness for/about Rasheed). This team looked amazing for a month or two, and now is looking at playing on Thursday of the ACCT. The season went from optimism to uncertainty in a matter of 3 weeks. There is plenty of time to smooth things out now, with probably a lower ceiling. I'm actually optimistic- knowing that this is where K is at his best. Not a guarantee this season turns into what we thought it could, but I think they'll fight and not fizzle out as the season winds down. But it is a bummer when you think of what this season could have been.

[Duvall]

A 4-3 ACC season, maybe. Heck, we may be trailing Clemson in the ACC standings by Sunday (I doubt it- think Clemson "Clemsons" vs. BC). They definitely need to circle the wagons, come together and find some sort of spark.

That's really the frustrating thing about all of this (apart from the obvious sadness for/about Rasheed). This team looked amazing for a month or two, and now is looking at playing on Thursday of the ACCT.

Well, I hope Duke is playing on Thursday of the ACC Tournament (which is now the quarterfinals).

Hard to make any projections right now given the Sulaimon situation, but look at the rest of the schedule. Plenty of chances for sparks.

[CDu]

I sub'd at our Christian School today and had time during classes to guess at minutes for our 8 rotation players. I sort of agree with your post regarding minutes, but what do you think Jahlil's minutes will look like? The reason I ask is there are two things to consider. One, will Jahlil be more effective playing around 30-33 minutes or 36-38 minutes. The second thing to consider is, will he be taken out at the end of close games because of his poor foul shooting. We've seen it happen in two losses this season. I don't think we have to worry about Quinn and Tyus's minutes because they seem to be in great shape. But someone the size of Jahlil probably needs more rest than our guards. One other thing you mention is for players to step up on the offensive end of the court and I agree 100%. Do you think the added pressure will affect Matt's confidence. He's not a great shooter to begin with. I think the rotation against Virginia will be shortened and therefore Grayson probably won't see much action if any. But after he's had more practice time and if he does well, he might get some minutes. GoDuke!

Well, Okafor is averaging 32.5 mpg in ACC play, so I don't think he needs to change his minutes. I'd give Plumlee his 8-12 mpg as the rest of the C minutes and a few of the "twin tower" minutes. But I don't think Sulaimon's departure changes that too much.

I have no idea what will happen with Matt Jones' confidence. I hope that the added playing time and more assuredness of said playing time will result in better shooting, but I have no idea. And I do think Allen will play a bit more than he currently does. I just don't think it will be a lot more.

[CDu]

Wait, what? A 17-3 season needs to be "turned around?"

I think the "turn it around" applies more to the idea that we've lost 3 of our last 6.

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

Sorry but I think it's flat out ignorant to imply that playing zone is a fall back response to being bad at defense. In fact, playing zone against certain teams makes all the sense in the world. You defend a team the best way possible. And if forcing them to shoot rather than giving up easy drives all game is the recipe for success against a particular team, why wouldn't you do it? There's nothing particularly brilliant about it. But I'm sure glad K has added to his arsenal.

And when it's not right, we don't play it. We played mostly man against ND, and I actually thought we played pretty well most of the game, but we clearly had some bad moments. And they are just stinkin' good.

I guess I'm not ready to declare that 17-3 indicates we are in meltdown mode and in desperate need of a "turnaround."

[gcashwell]

Wait, what? A 17-3 season needs to be "turned around?"

A 4-3 season in the ACC, with a player getting booted off the team does.