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View Full Version : MBB: #4 Duke vs. #8 Notre Dame (Wed 1930 EST, ESPN2)



FerryFor50
01-26-2015, 12:24 PM
I'll go ahead and start this thread, as I didn't see one yet.

HUGE pair of games this week against two teams that are in competition with Duke for #1 in the ACC. UVA was pretty obvious to compete, but the other team is not UNC - it's Notre Dame.

Mike Brey has pretty much created a Duke clone (well, Duke of recent years) at South Bend.

- talented offense (#1 in offensive efficiency in KenPom) with good PG play, 3 point shooters and stretch four players
- Shaky defense (153 in kenpom)

Notre Dame has been scuffling a bit the past few games, with narrow escapes against NCSU, Miami, Georgia Tech and UNC. However, they also beat Miami and NCSU, who smacked Duke around in their games.

Notre Dame has some troublesome guards in Jerian Grant and Demetrius Jackson. They will cause problems if Duke decides to try to play a lot of aggressive man to man.

They also have shooters all over the floor, which will cause issues with zone. Pat Connaughton will be a headache as an athletic shooter. He's almost as springy as Grayson Allen, but is a senior and has better strength than Allen.

Grant is also a strong defender and likely will be hyped up to play Duke, which is the narrative of every. single. guard. we. play.

They don't have a ton of size however, and they don't rebound great. Hopefully Okafor has one of his better games.

TruBlu
01-26-2015, 01:17 PM
I'll go ahead and start this thread, as I didn't see one yet.

HUGE pair of games this week against two teams that are in competition with Duke for #1 in the ACC. UVA was pretty obvious to compete, but the other team is not UNC - it's Notre Dame.

Mike Brey has pretty much created a Duke clone (well, Duke of recent years) at South Bend.

- talented offense (#1 in offensive efficiency in KenPom) with good PG play, 3 point shooters and stretch four players
- Shaky defense (153 in kenpom)

Notre Dame has been scuffling a bit the past few games, with narrow escapes against NCSU, Miami, Georgia Tech and UNC. However, they also beat Miami and NCSU, who smacked Duke around in their games.

Notre Dame has some troublesome guards in Jerian Grant and Demetrius Jackson. They will cause problems if Duke decides to try to play a lot of aggressive man to man.

They also have shooters all over the floor, which will cause issues with zone. Pat Connaughton will be a headache as an athletic shooter. He's almost as springy as Grayson Allen, but is a senior and has better strength than Allen.

Grant is also a strong defender and likely will be hyped up to play Duke, which is the narrative of every. single. guard. we. play.

They don't have a ton of size however, and they don't rebound great. Hopefully Okafor has one of his better games.

So, we can't play aggressive man to man, and we can't play zone?!?

It's over . . . ;)

FerryFor50
01-26-2015, 01:26 PM
So, we can't play aggressive man to man, and we can't play zone?!?

It's over . . . ;)

lol

Maybe less aggressive man?

I think it will be one of those games where they will mix it up and we'll have hundreds of posts on how bad the defense is, when in reality it's just that ND's offense is good.

roywhite
01-26-2015, 01:34 PM
I've been impressed with Notre Dame's poise in tough situations. They trailed by a bunch yesterday at NCSU, and hung together; they were definitely the better executing team down the stretch -- took better care of the ball, and made better decisions. ND can beaten, but not easily.

First key IMO will be a big game from Jahlil; want to see him score a bunch, but perhaps just as important, pass well when double and triple-teamed.

devildeac
01-26-2015, 01:39 PM
So, we can't play aggressive man to man, and we can't play zone?!?

It's over . . . ;)

"What? Over? Did you say "over"? Nothing is over until we decide it is!"

Was it over when Casey Sanders broke his foot?:rolleyes:


(There's always a box and 1 or a triangle and 2:rolleyes:;).)

Dr. Rosenrosen
01-26-2015, 02:49 PM
1-2-2 zone with OakPlum down low? Better with perimeter shooters but tricky to defend in the corners.

I think we'll see lots of m2m and switching out top on Wednesday night. But we still gotta work on our hedging/icing -- it's gotten weak as of late.

mr. synellinden
01-26-2015, 03:01 PM
"What? Over? Did you say "over"? Nothing is over until we decide it is!"

Was it over when Casey Sanders broke his foot?:rolleyes:


(There's always a box and 1 or a triangle and 2:rolleyes:;).)

Sanders?

Forget it. He's rolling.

AIRFORCEDUKIE
01-26-2015, 03:12 PM
Here it comes... Tyus Quinn Amile MP3 amd Jah start the game ;)

CDu
01-26-2015, 03:28 PM
Thanks FerryFor50 for starting this thread and with a good breakdown on Notre Dame. Not a ton to add to it, as you did a really comprehensive job.

The only thing I can add is to emphasize a few points Ferry made:
1. Notre Dame is small. They play 3 guards all game and usually play a SF at PF. So this will be one of the rare times the rest of the way in which we are the bigger team. We need to take advantage of our size on the boards on both ends. But at the same time, we could easily get away with a lineup with 4 guards/wings, with Winslow or Matt Jones as the de facto PF.
2. Their starting "PF" (Connaughton) is really a SF, and an extremely good one. He shares a lot of the same characteristics as Winslow, but he's a better rebounder and a better 3pt shooter. He'll be a tough matchup for anyone, Winslow included. But it will be critical that we figure out how to guard him. Hopefully Jefferson/Winslow/Jones can do the job, because I don't think that we want Plumlee or Okafor trying to guard him.
3. They are an extremely good offensive team. They have a lot of offensive similarities to us, minus the awesome big man. They have multiple ballhandlers, multiple 3pt shooters, and multiple guys who can score when the play breaks down.
4. Defensively, they are very weak. We need to punish them on that end of the floor because we aren't likely to shut them down defensively.

As for how we attack them defensively, I'm not sure that we can go zone extensively. They are just too disciplined and too good at shooting at too many positions for a zone to work well. But as Ferry noted, Jackson and Grant are very strong off the dribble. Connaughton is, like Winslow, not shabby off the dribble either. So for pretty much the whole game, they'll have 2 or more guys who can break down a defender off the dribble (one of whom will be playing PF much of the time). So I don't know that we can get away with excessive pressure man-to-man. This may be one of those games were we need to go more with our "11" defense (man-to-man but picking up at the 3-point line).

The other thing to note is that they essentially play 6 guys major minutes. Other guys get in as needed, but they roll with their top 6 as much as they can. So if we can get them in some foul trouble (most notably Auguste, Connaughton, and Grant), then beating them gets much easier, because the dropoff to their 7th man is substantial.

Ultimately, I'd expect this to be a high-scoring, very entertaining game. Hopefully we'll be able to outscore them.

Troublemaker
01-26-2015, 03:28 PM
Will be interesting to see if Marshall gets more time as backup PF. On the one hand, the Twin Towers look did great vs St. John's, and the usual backup PF, Justise, is currently banged up. On the other hand, Notre Dame's 4-out-1-in lineup might discourage Coach K from using Twin Towers; Duke typically goes small to cover a 6'5" great-shooting stretch 4 like Connaughton. I can see it going either way, but I'm hoping to see Twin Towers. I think there's a chance Marshall is athletic enough to make it work, even if Duke is playing man-2-man and Marshall needs to cover Connaughton out on the perimeter. And if it happens to work against Notre Dame, it might become a staple for the rest of the season.

FerryFor50
01-26-2015, 04:05 PM
As for their "bigs" Auguste is the biggest guy at 6'10". He's strong and can rebound, but he's a little foul prone (2.5 per game). I predict Okafor makes him a non-factor due to foul trouble.

After him, they have the following guys:

VJ Beachem 6'8" - more of a shooter; deadly from 3
Austin Burgett 6'9" - doesn't play a ton (7.8 mpg); junior. I expect we'll see him a bit against Duke, though.
Martinas Geben 6'9" - freshman (9.7 mpg); ditto about seeing him more against Duke
Eric Katenda 6'9" - junior; plays sparingly (2.4mpg)

As CDu mentioned, Connaughton is their de facto PF. He actually rebounds better than Auguste, mainly due to his athleticism and strength. He will be a giant pain in the rear.

I think Amile might actually have a solid game, given no one matches up that well with him. That is, if Amile is healthy after the St. John's blood bath. (Red Storm has a whole new meaning)

This site has a good amount of info on them:

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/notre-dame/2015.html

flyingdutchdevil
01-26-2015, 04:15 PM
Ferry and CDu - thank you! Great breakdowns.

Is it safe to say that we're playing against "Duke: 2013-2014"? #1 offense, terrible defense, non-traditional stretch 4, great 3pt shooting, lack of size...tons of parallels. Obviously, there are differences between the two teams, but I see so many parallels.

Thoughts?

FerryFor50
01-26-2015, 04:16 PM
Ferry and CDu - thank you! Great breakdowns.

Is it safe to say that we're playing against "Duke: 2013-2014"? #1 offense, terrible defense, non-traditional stretch 4, great 3pt shooting, lack of size...tons of parallels. Obviously, there are differences between the two teams, but I see so many parallels.

Thoughts?

Yea that was my overall impression of watching them and seeing the overall numbers. Main difference here is that they don't have a Jabari Parker. ;)

flyingdutchdevil
01-26-2015, 04:20 PM
Yea that was my overall impression of watching them and seeing the overall numbers. Main difference here is that they don't have a Jabari Parker. ;)

But we didn't have a Grant last year (ie someone who can play really solid defense). Still, Jabari > Grant. I see your point.

flyingdutchdevil
01-26-2015, 04:35 PM
The other thing to note is that they essentially play 6 guys major minutes. Other guys get in as needed, but they roll with their top 6 as much as they can. So if we can get them in some foul trouble (most notably Auguste, Connaughton, and Grant), then beating them gets much easier, because the dropoff to their 7th man is substantial.

Yeah, this is pretty key. During the OT game against NC State, only 7 players played. And their 7th man was forced to play because Pat Connaughton fouled out.

Zach Auguste is backed by VJ Beechem (the two also play a few minutes together) but VJ Beechem is only 6'8", 187 pounds. If Auguste gets in any foul trouble, I can't imagine a 187 pounder trying to guard Okafor.

With this in mind, get ready for a) Okafor domination (Okanation) or b) three-point barrage once they decide to double Okafor (which is arguably the better strategy). Hell, maybe both.

ND is a really good team at home, so I won't be too upset if we lose. But if we don't try to get it to Okafor ASAP, I'll be a little disappointed given the ND personnel (or lack thereof)

roywhite
01-26-2015, 04:47 PM
But we didn't have a Grant last year (ie someone who can play really solid defense). Still, Jabari > Grant. I see your point.

Well, let's not shortchange Grant. He's having an All-ACC, possibly All-America season.

You note his defense; offensively, he's averaging 17.1 ppg on shooting of 51% FG, 34% 3-pt, and 79% FT; he's also adding 6.2(!) assists and 1.5 steals per game. He'll be hard to shut down, but we at least want to stop him from really going off. Winslow would probably draw the defensive assignment, but his physical status is questionable. Sulaimon and Matt Jones will need to defend well, and try to avoid foul trouble. Our zone defense may be used to try to keep him outside.

CDu
01-26-2015, 04:50 PM
Ferry and CDu - thank you! Great breakdowns.

Is it safe to say that we're playing against "Duke: 2013-2014"? #1 offense, terrible defense, non-traditional stretch 4, great 3pt shooting, lack of size...tons of parallels. Obviously, there are differences between the two teams, but I see so many parallels.

Thoughts?

I would agree that there are a lot of parallels between them and last year's Duke team. They are very capable offensively but very reliant on the 3, and they are very suspect defensively. Last year's Duke team is a reasonable comp, although they actually play even smaller than we did last year.

Grant is a terrific talent, and probably should be first-team All-ACC. And Connaughton, Jackson, and Auguste are not to be overlooked. Connaughton should get some All-ACC consideration; he's that good and versatile. Vasturia and Beachem are essentially replicas of Andre Dawkins - guys who are terrific floor-spacing 3pt shooters but not much more.

After that top-6 though, the dropoff is precipitous. They have a few bigs who play sparingly as needed. Folks may remember Burgett from his solid showing against Duke (5 boards and 5 blocks) last year. Burgett is athletic but not terribly skilled, and plays limited minutes on this team as the backup "center." If absolutely necessary, they have Geben (another backup PF/C) and Torres (another undersized PF) in case of emergency. But all three of these guys are fairly non-descript, and going to them for extended minutes substantially weakens their offense.

Similarly, if Grant or Connaughton gets into foul trouble, they lose a lot of their ability to exploit mismatches and create trouble for the defense.

jv001
01-26-2015, 04:53 PM
Yeah, this is pretty key. During the OT game against NC State, only 7 players played. And their 7th man was forced to play because Pat Connaughton fouled out.

Zach Auguste is backed by VJ Beechem (the two also play a few minutes together) but VJ Beechem is only 6'8", 187 pounds. If Auguste gets in any foul trouble, I can't imagine a 187 pounder trying to guard Okafor.

With this in mind, get ready for a) Okafor domination (Okanation) or b) three-point barrage once they decide to double Okafor (which is arguably the better strategy). Hell, maybe both.

ND is a really good team at home, so I won't be too upset if we lose. But if we don't try to get it to Okafor ASAP, I'll be a little disappointed given the ND personnel (or lack thereof)

Thanks for the information on the ND-State game. I would look for some cuts to the basket by Amile and our wings if ND doubles on Jahlil. But you are right in we need to get the ball to the big guy and hope the refs don't swallow their whistles like they did against St. Johns. I'm really hoping Justise is ready to go against these guys, but I really want him 100% when we visit Virginia. GoDuke!

sagegrouse
01-26-2015, 04:58 PM
As Notre Dame is at the top of the charts in three-point shooting, it seems like we should be playing man-to-man. In fact, I expect mostly man-to-man with some zone used to provide some variety and unpredictability.

luvdahops
01-26-2015, 05:02 PM
Yeah, this is pretty key. During the OT game against NC State, only 7 players played. And their 7th man was forced to play because Pat Connaughton fouled out.

Zach Auguste is backed by VJ Beechem (the two also play a few minutes together) but VJ Beechem is only 6'8", 187 pounds. If Auguste gets in any foul trouble, I can't imagine a 187 pounder trying to guard Okafor.

With this in mind, get ready for a) Okafor domination (Okanation) or b) three-point barrage once they decide to double Okafor (which is arguably the better strategy). Hell, maybe both.

ND is a really good team at home, so I won't be too upset if we lose. But if we don't try to get it to Okafor ASAP, I'll be a little disappointed given the ND personnel (or lack thereof)

6-5 Freshman Bonzie Colson has actually been playing regular rotation minutes over the past 4 ACC games. He's a bouncy wide body (weighs 225) with some extra wing span, so plays taller than 6-5. And definitely mixes it up more inside than Beechem (and rebounds and blocks shots at a much higher rate). Sort of a poor man's Robert Brickey. Unlikely to bother Big Jah much, though.

As others have mentioned, Connaughton is going to be a tough matchup for us, whatever defense we play. Kid is a gamer with great skills and plenty of athleticism (is a high level MLB prospect as well).

Agree that ND is a really good team at home. I have been to the Joyce Center a dozen times or so - it can be very loud and intimidating, and has hosted some landmark games over the years, though not so many recently.

MChambers
01-26-2015, 05:02 PM
As for their "bigs" Auguste is the biggest guy at 6'10". He's strong and can rebound, but he's a little foul prone (2.5 per game). I predict Okafor makes him a non-factor due to foul trouble.[/url]
Thanks for the analysis. In ACC play, Auguste is averaging 4.4 fouls per 40 minutes, so that makes your prediction seem very likely to come true.

Kedsy
01-26-2015, 05:09 PM
Thanks for the analysis. In ACC play, Auguste is averaging 4.4 fouls per 40 minutes, so that makes your prediction seem very likely to come true.

Averaging 4.4 fouls per 40 really isn't that many for a big man. Means he could play 28 minutes (he only averages 24 for the season) and have just 3 fouls.

luvdahops
01-26-2015, 05:10 PM
Colson's stats over the last 4 ND games (GT, Miami, VT, NCSU) - 4.8 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 1.0 bpg in 14.3 mpg. Played out of necessity against GT when Auguste was suspended, and has stayed in the rotation since (moving ahead of Burgett). Burgett may well be forced into action against us though.

Billy Dat
01-26-2015, 05:12 PM
As for how we attack them defensively, I'm not sure that we can go zone extensively. They are just too disciplined and too good at shooting at too many positions for a zone to work well. But as Ferry noted, Jackson and Grant are very strong off the dribble. Connaughton is, like Winslow, not shabby off the dribble either. So for pretty much the whole game, they'll have 2 or more guys who can break down a defender off the dribble (one of whom will be playing PF much of the time). So I don't know that we can get away with excessive pressure man-to-man. This may be one of those games were we need to go more with our "11" defense (man-to-man but picking up at the 3-point line).

Now that we have zone in our repertoire, I'd like to see us use the variation from man to zone to keep teams guessing. I have always admired the way that Pitino teams utilized such strategies. Different man, different zone and different full court to 3/4 court pressures to keep the offense off balance.

-bdbd
01-26-2015, 05:17 PM
Count me among the concerned over the Irish's solid three-point shooting ability. They could just wind up bombing-away from long range over our zone. I hope to see a lot of the twin towers and pound it inside on them early, loosening things up elsewhere as the game progresses.

Furniture
01-26-2015, 05:36 PM
Like many others I really enjoyed the Plumtree/Oaktree line up. So has Marshall has improved a lot recently? If so I have the following questions.
If indeed the big improvement is there with Marshall is it because of six months of hard practice against the Oaktree?
Secondly; wishful thinking aside what are the chances that Plum/oak is a realistic several minute lineup for the coming games given that K was somewhat forced into it yesterday?

sagegrouse
01-26-2015, 05:53 PM
Like many others I really enjoyed the Plumtree/Oaktree line up. So has Marshall has improved a lot recently? If so I have the following questions.
If indeed the big improvement is there with Marshall is it because of six months of hard practice against the Oaktree?
Secondly; wishful thinking aside what are the chances that Plum/oak is a realistic several minute lineup for the coming games given that K was somewhat forced into it yesterday?

I think we will see a lot of Field Marshall Plumlee for the rest of the season -- or, at least, until Justise is back to normal. He and Okafor played together for nine minutes Sunday -- in just one half.

But, I agree, the likelihood of using mostly man-to-man against the Irish may limit a joint appearance.

-jk
01-26-2015, 05:56 PM
I think we will see a lot of Field Marshall Plumlee for the rest of the season -- or, at least, until Justise is back to normal. He and Okafor played together for nine minutes Sunday -- in just one half.

But, I agree, the likelihood of using mostly man-to-man against the Irish may limit a joint appearance.

I want to know when Justise is healthy. Marshall is a solid sub for Amile - and fabulous v. StJ. Not sure we have as good a sub for Justise.

-jk

CDu
01-26-2015, 06:00 PM
Like many others I really enjoyed the Plumtree/Oaktree line up. So has Marshall has improved a lot recently? If so I have the following questions.
If indeed the big improvement is there with Marshall is it because of six months of hard practice against the Oaktree?
Secondly; wishful thinking aside what are the chances that Plum/oak is a realistic several minute lineup for the coming games given that K was somewhat forced into it yesterday?

I'm not sure that Plumlee has improved a lot recently. I think yesterday was just a function of playing a new position in the zone (previously, he was always the center; this game he was one of the forwards), playing against a smaller opponent, and just his everpresent hustle coinciding with opportunity. Nothing in particular about his play stood out as noticeably different other than the result.

I am quite sure that playing against Okafor has helped him this year though. Just a gradual gain from playing against a really good big man.

I don't know how realistic it is to think we'll see the twin towers for major minutes. But the Notre Dame game could be telling. There isn't a worse matchup for Plumlee/Okafor than Notre Dame with its 4-out, 1-in philosophy. So if we see it against Notre Dame for significant time, I'd expect to see it a lot moving forward. If we don't see it against Notre Dame, who knows?

Troublemaker
01-26-2015, 06:14 PM
Grant is a terrific talent, and probably should be first-team All-ACC. And Connaughton, Jackson, and Auguste are not to be overlooked.

Agreed. One of the differences between this year's ND and last year's Duke is that last year's Duke team didn't have a 6'10" 242-lb center that averages 13.7 points/gm. Notre Dame is a very balanced team, and according to Pomeroy, Auguste is the highest-usage player on the team when he's on the court, edging out Grant.

When Auguste is on the court, the Irish are going to go inside to him. Especially since Coach K will probably view this opponent as a "make them beat us with 2s instead of 3s" matchup, I see a lot of Auguste in the post with single-coverage by Jah. Duke's going to stick with the shooters on the perimeter and not double-team. So if Auguste has a nice day, hopefully no one reading this is surprised.

Troublemaker
01-26-2015, 06:29 PM
Well, let's not shortchange Grant. He's having an All-ACC, possibly All-America season.

You note his defense; offensively, he's averaging 17.1 ppg on shooting of 51% FG, 34% 3-pt, and 79% FT; he's also adding 6.2(!) assists and 1.5 steals per game. He'll be hard to shut down, but we at least want to stop him from really going off. Winslow would probably draw the defensive assignment, but his physical status is questionable.

I would love to see Winslow get a shot at guarding the 6'5" Grant on Wednesday. Duke's been, to me, surprisingly rigid with perimeter assignments so far this season. Tyus will guard the PG, Quinn the SG, etc. Part of that is because Justise hasn't been able to be a dedicated perimeter player this season since he is the backup PF. One of the reasons I'm hoping MP3 becomes the main backup at both PF and C is to free Justise to become a full-time versatile perimeter defender that we can stick on the opposing team's best perimeter player. Hopefully Justise gets healthy soon from his nicks and bruises and can take on that kind of role.



Count me among the concerned over the Irish's solid three-point shooting ability. They could just wind up bombing-away from long range over our zone. I hope to see a lot of the twin towers and pound it inside on them early, loosening things up elsewhere as the game progresses.


As Notre Dame is at the top of the charts in three-point shooting, it seems like we should be playing man-to-man. In fact, I expect mostly man-to-man with some zone used to provide some variety and unpredictability.

I expect the same, sage. As I wrote above, Duke will probably concentrate on the "make them beat us with 2s instead of 3s" strategy that we've seen a bunch over the years, using our man-2-man.

sagegrouse
01-26-2015, 07:01 PM
I'm not sure that Plumlee has improved a lot recently. I think yesterday was just a function of playing a new position in the zone (previously, he was always the center; this game he was one of the forwards), playing against a smaller opponent, and just his everpresent hustle coinciding with opportunity. Nothing in particular about his play stood out as noticeably different other than the result.

I am quite sure that playing against Okafor has helped him this year though. Just a gradual gain from playing against a really good big man.

I don't know how realistic it is to think we'll see the twin towers for major minutes. But the Notre Dame game could be telling. There isn't a worse matchup for Plumlee/Okafor than Notre Dame with its 4-out, 1-in philosophy. So if we see it against Notre Dame for significant time, I'd expect to see it a lot moving forward. If we don't see it against Notre Dame, who knows?

We have advanced a bit from the stated beliefs here that there was "no way" MP3 and Okafor could play at the same time, haven't we?

CDu
01-26-2015, 07:35 PM
We have advanced a bit from the stated beliefs here that there was "no way" MP3 and Okafor could play at the same time, haven't we?

Coach K going to zone changes a lot of things discussed preseason.

Duvall
01-26-2015, 07:54 PM
Interesting thing about Duke's remaining schedule - there are four games against teams that are pretty good at perimeter shooting (NDx2, VA, VT), all top 40 in the country in 3FG%, and eight games against that are pretty bad at it (UNCx2, GT, FSU, CU, Syracusex2, WF), all outside the top 200. So there should be plenty of opportunities to play zone, Notre Dame just isn't one.

CDu
01-26-2015, 07:59 PM
Interesting thing about Duke's remaining schedule - there are four games against teams that are pretty good at perimeter shooting (NDx2, VA, VT), all top 40 in the country in 3FG%, and seven games against that are pretty bad at it (UNCx2, GT, FSU, CU, Syracuse, WF), all outside the top 200. So there should be plenty of opportunities to play zone, Notre Dame just isn't one.

Yeah, I would expect to see some zone against Notre Dame and UVa, but not very much. But you're right: the majority of the games left on our regular season schedule are zone-worthy for sure.

MChambers
01-26-2015, 08:36 PM
Averaging 4.4 fouls per 40 really isn't that many for a big man. Means he could play 28 minutes (he only averages 24 for the season) and have just 3 fouls.
He's got to cover Okafor. So his foul rate is likely to go up substantially.

Kedsy
01-26-2015, 10:57 PM
He's got to cover Okafor. So his foul rate is likely to go up substantially.

True. I'm not saying he won't foul out. I'm suggesting his previous foul rate doesn't provide evidence that it's any more likely than most big men we play.

Here's a list of big men we've played against in 2015 (both the mpg and the fouls per 40 do NOT include the game against Duke):



Name mpg fouls per 40 mpg vs. Duke fouls vs. Duke
Clifford (BC) 24.6 3.96 17 5
Thomas (WF) 27.5 4.13 35 2
Anya (NCSU) 19.3 5.60 19 4
Abu (NCSU) 16.3 5.03 23 3
Jekiri (Mia) 30.1 4.21 37 3
Mathiang (Lou) 19.4 3.99 26 4
Onuaku (Lou) 17.2 4.93 14 2
Young (Pitt) 31.4 3.21 32 4
Obekpa (StJ) 29.4 4.75 36 5


Other than Young, none of them had significantly fewer fouls per 40 than Auguste's 4.1 (which is my calculation, rather than 4.4, not that it matters much). Other than Clifford, none of their minutes seemed limited by foul trouble from having to guard Jahlil (or at least not more limited than these guys are on average, guarding whoever they guarded on average).

jipops
01-26-2015, 11:32 PM
With the efficiency numbers, I would venture to say we're going to see a rather high scoring affair. Neither team plays much defense. If ND starts getting the kind of open looks St Johns did, then it will be a rough night. The Irish are a terrific shooting team. I expect Grant to drop in 25+.

I think our best shot is to turn them over. The team with the most shot attempts may be better off here. I don't see the zone being remotely successful in this one.

Kedsy
01-26-2015, 11:42 PM
I think our best shot is to turn them over.

That might prove difficult. Notre Dame has the 2nd lowest turnover percentage in the country (Wisconsin is lowest; and we only forced 8 to's in our game against them).

Dukehky
01-26-2015, 11:45 PM
I really hope we win this game, because I'm not sure about going up to Wahoo land and bringing back a W

Kedsy
01-26-2015, 11:46 PM
Thanks for the analysis. In ACC play, Auguste is averaging 4.4 fouls per 40 minutes, so that makes your prediction seem very likely to come true.


Other than Young, none of them had significantly fewer fouls per 40 than Auguste's 4.1 (which is my calculation, rather than 4.4, not that it matters much). Other than Clifford, none of their minutes seemed limited by foul trouble from having to guard Jahlil (or at least not more limited than these guys are on average, guarding whoever they guarded on average).

I just realized you said "ACC play," which explains the discrepancy between your number and mine. Still, I don't think it changes the analysis much, if at all.

MChambers
01-27-2015, 08:20 AM
I just realized you said "ACC play," which explains the discrepancy between your number and mine. Still, I don't think it changes the analysis much, if at all.
I just thought the ACC number was more indicative, because the opposition is likely to be better. But it doesn't change the analysis much.

superdave
01-27-2015, 11:39 AM
I want to know when Justise is healthy. Marshall is a solid sub for Amile - and fabulous v. StJ. Not sure we have as good a sub for Justise.

-jk

Is there any chance we sit Justise out tomorrow night? It sounds like he could use a few days off from practice and games to heal up. But that is not Coach K's typical style. It seems like our guys usually play through these things, with some limit on minutes.

Henderson
01-27-2015, 12:05 PM
Is there any chance we sit Justise out tomorrow night? It sounds like he could use a few days off from practice and games to heal up. But that is not Coach K's typical style. It seems like our guys usually play through these things, with some limit on minutes.

I hate to state the obvious, but it depends on his condition doesn't it? So of course the answer is "Yes, there's a chance." If he's hurt and can't contribute, or if his playing would sacrifice long term goals, sure. And what things sound like to us won't be the deciding factor.

kmspeaks
01-27-2015, 02:58 PM
With the efficiency numbers, I would venture to say we're going to see a rather high scoring affair. Neither team plays much defense. If ND starts getting the kind of open looks St Johns did, then it will be a rough night. The Irish are a terrific shooting team. I expect Grant to drop in 25+.

I think our best shot is to turn them over. The team with the most shot attempts may be better off here. I don't see the zone being remotely successful in this one.

If I knew where to get the efficiency numbers easily I'd look it up to check but Coach K put forth the idea that this team plays better defense when it's offense is clicking. I wonder if Notre Dame's inept defense gives our guys some confidence and ramps up the intensity on D?

superdave
01-27-2015, 03:18 PM
I hate to state the obvious, but it depends on his condition doesn't it? So of course the answer is "Yes, there's a chance." If he's hurt and can't contribute, or if his playing would sacrifice long term goals, sure. And what things sound like to us won't be the deciding factor.

Maybe this is a better way to put it:

Winslow played banged up vs. St Johns and only got 10 minutes of PT. Assuming he did not get any more bruises, is he better off taking three days off to rest this week or trying to play through it?

Seth played in games but was extremely limited in practice a couple of years ago. Any news of Winslow getting rest and sitting out practice? I have seen nothing.

Kedsy
01-27-2015, 03:30 PM
If I knew where to get the efficiency numbers easily I'd look it up to check but Coach K put forth the idea that this team plays better defense when it's offense is clicking. I wonder if Notre Dame's inept defense gives our guys some confidence and ramps up the intensity on D?

Here are raw (unadjusted) points per possession and defensive points per possession in each game this season:

Presby: 1.69, 0.66
Fair: 1.47, 0.80
MSU: 1.25, 1.09
Temple: 1.07, 0.78
Stan: 1.09, 0.92
Fur: 1.43, 0.83
Army: 1.29, 1.01
Wis: 1.31, 1.15
Elon: 1.03, 0.85
UConn: 0.99, 0.84
Toledo: 1.25, 1.00
Woff: 1.31, 0.86
NCSU: 1.07, 1.24
Miami: 1.00, 1.22
Lou: 1.07, 0.88
Pitt: 1.27, 1.05
StJ: 1.13, 1.00

Not sure how helpful this is, because (a) these numbers are not adjusted for how good our opponents are at offense and defense against other teams; (b) these are full game results and don't take into account games like St. John's where our D was awful for 30 minutes and then great for 10 minutes; and (c) if our defense got better when our offense got better, we'd win a lot of our games by 30 points.

CDu
01-27-2015, 03:44 PM
Here are raw (unadjusted) points per possession and defensive points per possession in each game this season:

Presby: 1.69, 0.66
Fair: 1.47, 0.80
MSU: 1.25, 1.09
Temple: 1.07, 0.78
Stan: 1.09, 0.92
Fur: 1.43, 0.83
Army: 1.29, 1.01
Wis: 1.31, 1.15
Elon: 1.03, 0.85
UConn: 0.99, 0.84
Toledo: 1.25, 1.00
Woff: 1.31, 0.86
NCSU: 1.07, 1.24
Miami: 1.00, 1.22
Lou: 1.07, 0.88
Pitt: 1.27, 1.05
StJ: 1.13, 1.00

Not sure how helpful this is, because (a) these numbers are not adjusted for how good our opponents are at offense and defense against other teams; (b) these are full game results and don't take into account games like St. John's where our D was awful for 30 minutes and then great for 10 minutes; and (c) if our defense got better when our offense got better, we'd win a lot of our games by 30 points.

In a quick correlation check of the numbers, I find a slightly negative correlation (-0.383). That would sorta/kinda provide support for Coach K's statement. But as you noted, that ignores the quality of our opponents. If I exclude the first two games against the most obviously inferior opponents (where our offensive and defensive efficiencies were both off the charts good), the correlation drops to nearly 0 (0.017). So in the more meaningful games, there does not appear to be any correlation. And there certainly does not appear to be a negative correlation (i.e., our offense doesn't really get better with our defense, or vice versa) at an overall game level.

I suspect Coach K is guilty of a little bit of coachspeak and a little bit of buying into anecdotal evidence (i.e., he remembers some particular sequences when our defense/offense improved as our offense/defense improved). But in reality the data don't appear to scream in support of the statement.

Editor's note: this list appears to exclude the Wake and BC games. But I don't know how much those games will change the results. I doubt they'll make a huge impact.

jv001
01-27-2015, 03:56 PM
Here are raw (unadjusted) points per possession and defensive points per possession in each game this season:

Presby: 1.69, 0.66
Fair: 1.47, 0.80
MSU: 1.25, 1.09
Temple: 1.07, 0.78
Stan: 1.09, 0.92
Fur: 1.43, 0.83
Army: 1.29, 1.01
Wis: 1.31, 1.15
Elon: 1.03, 0.85
UConn: 0.99, 0.84
Toledo: 1.25, 1.00
Woff: 1.31, 0.86
NCSU: 1.07, 1.24
Miami: 1.00, 1.22
Lou: 1.07, 0.88
Pitt: 1.27, 1.05
StJ: 1.13, 1.00

Not sure how helpful this is, because (a) these numbers are not adjusted for how good our opponents are at offense and defense against other teams; (b) these are full game results and don't take into account games like St. John's where our D was awful for 30 minutes and then great for 10 minutes; and (c) if our defense got better when our offense got better, we'd win a lot of our games by 30 points.

If I did this correctly, in ACC play the numbers are 1.11/1.08. Pretty similar. Do you think Coach K meant that some of the players were not getting back on defense because they were hanging their heads after they missed a shot. I know success builds confidence, but that should hold true on offense and defense. GoDuke!

CDu
01-27-2015, 04:26 PM
If I did this correctly, in ACC play the numbers are 1.11/1.08. Pretty similar. Do you think Coach K meant that some of the players were not getting back on defense because they were hanging their heads after they missed a shot. I know success builds confidence, but that should hold true on offense and defense. GoDuke!

I think that the "anecdotal" answer is the likely culprit here. Coach K is remembering examples where a player misses a shot and sulks back down the court and doesn't play great defensively, and is making the leap to "we play better defense when we make shots." It's an understandable statement, as he was almost certainly just lazily responding to a post-game presser question without any detailed analysis of the data.

kmspeaks
01-27-2015, 04:35 PM
Here are raw (unadjusted) points per possession and defensive points per possession in each game this season:

Presby: 1.69, 0.66
Fair: 1.47, 0.80
MSU: 1.25, 1.09
Temple: 1.07, 0.78
Stan: 1.09, 0.92
Fur: 1.43, 0.83
Army: 1.29, 1.01
Wis: 1.31, 1.15
Elon: 1.03, 0.85
UConn: 0.99, 0.84
Toledo: 1.25, 1.00
Woff: 1.31, 0.86
NCSU: 1.07, 1.24
Miami: 1.00, 1.22
Lou: 1.07, 0.88
Pitt: 1.27, 1.05
StJ: 1.13, 1.00

Not sure how helpful this is, because (a) these numbers are not adjusted for how good our opponents are at offense and defense against other teams; (b) these are full game results and don't take into account games like St. John's where our D was awful for 30 minutes and then great for 10 minutes; and (c) if our defense got better when our offense got better, we'd win a lot of our games by 30 points.

Thanks for looking that up. Tried to spork you but I must spread the love some more. One of these days I'm going to convince my principal to let me create/teach a "statistics in sports" class and build the curriculum off all the great discussions that take place here.

jv001
01-27-2015, 04:39 PM
I think that the "anecdotal" answer is the likely culprit here. Coach K is remembering examples where a player misses a shot and sulks back down the court and doesn't play great defensively, and is making the leap to "we play better defense when we make shots." It's an understandable statement, as he was almost certainly just lazily responding to a post-game presser question without any detailed analysis of the data.

I see, in other words Coach K was probably just responding to a media question and gave what he thought might be one answer to Duke's defensive woes. It would be really time consuming to watch video of each players reaction to a missed shot and how said player performed on defense after the shot. Way too much work. I like the eye test much better. So I'll use Coach's anecdotal answer and say I think he's probably correct. :cool: GoDuke!

Kedsy
01-27-2015, 05:11 PM
Editor's note: this list appears to exclude the Wake and BC games. But I don't know how much those games will change the results. I doubt they'll make a huge impact.

Sorry, I transcribed the information too quickly.

BC: 1.33, 0.97
WF: 1.01, 0.90

-jk
01-27-2015, 05:24 PM
I see, in other words Coach K was probably just responding to a media question and gave what he thought might be one answer to Duke's defensive woes. It would be really time consuming to watch video of each players reaction to a missed shot and how said player performed on defense after the shot. Way too much work. I like the eye test much better. So I'll use Coach's anecdotal answer and say I think he's probably correct. :cool: GoDuke!

Doesn't SportVu do that?

-jk

CDu
01-27-2015, 05:43 PM
I see, in other words Coach K was probably just responding to a media question and gave what he thought might be one answer to Duke's defensive woes. It would be really time consuming to watch video of each players reaction to a missed shot and how said player performed on defense after the shot. Way too much work. I like the eye test much better. So I'll use Coach's anecdotal answer and say I think he's probably correct. :cool: GoDuke!

Yeah, I think it is important to note that this simple correlation test is just that: simple. It is at the game level not at the possession level (in theory the trends should be similar, but at the possession level we get a much larger sample size and can weed out for stoppages of play). It doesn't adjust for the quality of the opposing offense and defense. It doesn't control for our lineups and defensive strategy. There are just a ton of variables that would make it really complicated. So Coach K is taking a simple, anecdotal case or cases to generally apply a point.

jv001
01-27-2015, 06:02 PM
Doesn't SportVu do that?

-jk

jk, I'm not familiar with SportVu. Thanks for the information. GoDuke!

-jk
01-27-2015, 06:10 PM
jk, I'm not familiar with SportVu. Thanks for the information. GoDuke!

We had a discussion (http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?34766) about it.

-jk

jv001
01-27-2015, 06:17 PM
We had a discussion (http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?34766) about it.

-jk

Ah, the military type equipment Duke now uses. I had forgotten about that. Maybe Coach K has utilized SportVu and knows more about offense affecting defense than I thought he did. GoDuke!

DUKIE V(A)
01-27-2015, 06:59 PM
I believe rebounding (one reason I would love to see more MP3 than usual) and Matt Jones' perimeter defense will be keys to this game for Duke.

gep
01-27-2015, 11:19 PM
Ah, the military type equipment Duke now uses. I had forgotten about that. Maybe Coach K has utilized SportVu and knows more about offense affecting defense than I thought he did. GoDuke!

But... there was an article posted recently saying essentially that Coach K wasn't really an X and O type... but a gut feel type. Like in the 2010 NC game... gut feel that Zoubs missing gave Duke the best chance of winning the game.

jv001
01-28-2015, 07:04 AM
Looking at some basketball spreads, Duke is favored by 1 point on some and a pick em on others. Looks like the odds makers think it's going down to the wire. I look for the ball to be Jahlil's hands a lot. In our man to man, I wonder who get's to guard Grant. He's a problem on offense, 17 ppg and over 6 apg. I'm pretty sure Justise will get the call if he's healthy. It's going to be a fun game to watch. GoDuke!

Troublemaker
01-28-2015, 10:12 AM
Looking at some basketball spreads, Duke is favored by 1 point on some and a pick em on others. Looks like the odds makers think it's going down to the wire. I look for the ball to be Jahlil's hands a lot. In our man to man, I wonder who get's to guard Grant. He's a problem on offense, 17 ppg and over 6 apg. I'm pretty sure Justise will get the call if he's healthy. It's going to be a fun game to watch. GoDuke!

Yes, it appears Duke is now 1.5-pt favorites on most sites and trending towards 2. It's a shame. I was hoping tonight Duke could become 3-0 as road underdogs this season (and 3-0 as underdogs, period). Oh, well. Let's just win.

flyingdutchdevil
01-28-2015, 10:47 AM
...about what defensive tricks Coach K is going to throw at Mike Brey. Brey probably knows Coach K better than anyone in the ACC, so he'll be ready. But I wanna see how Coach K manages to stop the top offense in the country. I have no idea what to expect.

On offense, I'm not too worried. I have convinced myself that Coach K will demand that every possession goes through Okafor (even moreso than most games). Also, this is a really bad defensive ND team, so there should be opportunities galore. I'm expecting 80+ points from the good guys.

Bluedog
01-28-2015, 10:49 AM
Yes, it appears Duke is now 1.5-pt favorites on most sites and trending towards 2. It's a shame. I was hoping tonight Duke could become 3-0 as road underdogs this season (and 3-0 as underdogs, period). Oh, well. Let's just win.

Well, kenpom has Duke losing by 3 (with a 41% chance of winning), so you can take solace in the fact that we're still underdogs according to some systems. ;)

Channing
01-28-2015, 11:03 AM
...about what defensive tricks Coach K is going to throw at Mike Brey. Brey probably knows Coach K better than anyone in the ACC, so he'll be ready. But I wanna see how Coach K manages to stop the top offense in the country. I have no idea what to expect.

On offense, I'm not too worried. I have convinced myself that Coach K will demand that every possession goes through Okafor (even moreso than most games). Also, this is a really bad defensive ND team, so there should be opportunities galore. I'm expecting 80+ points from the good guys.

This mentality scares me a bit. Against UM and NCSU it felt like we were trying to run everything through Okafor and it resulted in A LOT of tipped passes and easy steals. I much prefer Okafor in the flow of our offense (pick and roll / cross cuts / etc.). I love Okafor being a focus of the offense, but we still need him to be a part of the offense, not the offense itself.

superdave
01-28-2015, 11:14 AM
This mentality scares me a bit. Against UM and NCSU it felt like we were trying to run everything through Okafor and it resulted in A LOT of tipped passes and easy steals. I much prefer Okafor in the flow of our offense (pick and roll / cross cuts / etc.). I love Okafor being a focus of the offense, but we still need him to be a part of the offense, not the offense itself.

I think it depends on Okafor's role. Is he content to be passive and wait for the double-team then kick it out? If so, he should either pass before the second defender arrives or he should use two hands and make a good pass. We dont need Sleepy Okafor lobbing one-handed passes into the stands under duress. That should get him time on the bench.

The other option is for Okafor to actively use screens, cuts and flashes to get the ball in scoring position and get a shot up before any double team can counter him.

We have seen both this season. If Notre Dame sags back into the lane, then Okafor will be more decoy and we will have to knock down 3-pointers. Based on what we've seen from him so far this season, if Notre Dame gives him space to make a catch and a move before doubling, then Okafor should attack.

But I would like to see Okafor be more aggressive from the start no matter what the defense throws at him. I am not sure if he is there yet. He lets the game come to him an awful lot and looks for what the defense gives him. While that is a good tactic for 99% of players, Okafor needs to be dominant. He needs to score against double team and be on the attack from the outset. He needs to graduate from dominant big man to Dominant Big Man!

I think if he is going to get there this season, you will begin to see him attacking more no matter what the defense gives and it should start this week. Note Dame is a great place to start since they lack a lot of size to counter him.

flyingdutchdevil
01-28-2015, 11:44 AM
This mentality scares me a bit. Against UM and NCSU it felt like we were trying to run everything through Okafor and it resulted in A LOT of tipped passes and easy steals. I much prefer Okafor in the flow of our offense (pick and roll / cross cuts / etc.). I love Okafor being a focus of the offense, but we still need him to be a part of the offense, not the offense itself.

Maybe, but that responsibility is on the guards/passers, not the strategy nor Okafor. Okafor draws soooooooooo much attention that his involvement in any play will create opportunities.

It's a matter of execution and the execution has been so much better since those two games.

azzefkram
01-28-2015, 12:06 PM
Maybe, but that responsibility is on the guards/passers, not the strategy nor Okafor.

If Oak is holding the ball too long, it is his responsibility. The past few games he has been much better at either making a quick move to the hoop or passing out quickly.

Dukehky
01-28-2015, 12:10 PM
...about what defensive tricks Coach K is going to throw at Mike Brey. Brey probably knows Coach K better than anyone in the ACC, so he'll be ready. But I wanna see how Coach K manages to stop the top offense in the country. I have no idea what to expect.

On offense, I'm not too worried. I have convinced myself that Coach K will demand that every possession goes through Okafor (even moreso than most games). Also, this is a really bad defensive ND team, so there should be opportunities galore. I'm expecting 80+ points from the good guys.

It's been 20 years since Brey worked at Duke, and this is their second year in the conference. I would not put too much worry into how well Brey knows K.

I think there are 2 ways we don't win this game:
1. Okafor foul trouble (always on the list of ways for Duke to lose a game)
2. ND's gonna have to hit over 55% and more than 12 3's

flyingdutchdevil
01-28-2015, 12:15 PM
If Oak is holding the ball too long, it is his responsibility. The past few games he has been much better at either making a quick move to the hoop or passing out quickly.

Yes, but entry passes are not the responsibility of the Oak. His responsibility is getting into position, holding it, and waiting for a solid pass. I agree that once he has the ball, the onus is on Okafor.

flyingdutchdevil
01-28-2015, 12:19 PM
It's been 20 years since Brey worked at Duke, and this is their second year in the conference. I would not put too much worry into how well Brey knows K.

I think there are 2 ways we don't win this game:
1. Okafor foul trouble (always on the list of ways for Duke to lose a game)
2. ND's gonna have to hit over 55% and more than 12 3's

Really? You think Brey no longer is in touch with Coach K? Or that Brey doesn't have frequent connections with Duke alums? Because if Duke is really a "family", then I firmly believe that Brey is a part of it. If not, then I do not consider the Duke "family" to be that cohesive.

Brey is arguably the most successful coach in Duke's coaching tree, especially when you look at total wins and NCAA appearances. I'd think Coach K would like to keep Brey close.

Furniture
01-28-2015, 12:43 PM
If Oak is holding the ball too long, it is his responsibility. The past few games he has been much better at either making a quick move to the hoop or passing out quickly.

I think the Oaktree is still developing and still has An upside even though he is incredible already. No expert at all but I think he needs to be more aggressive with his body and quicker to go for it ( so to speak) as others have mentioned.

AIRFORCEDUKIE
01-28-2015, 12:49 PM
Really? You think Brey no longer is in touch with Coach K? Or that Brey doesn't have frequent connections with Duke alums? Because if Duke is really a "family", then I firmly believe that Brey is a part of it. If not, then I do not consider the Duke "family" to be that cohesive.

Brey is arguably the most successful coach in Duke's coaching tree, especially when you look at total wins and NCAA appearances. I'd think Coach K would like to keep Brey close.

Interesting topic, I think Coach K is probably a source for all of his former assistants. They most likely contact him for advice and maybe some minor strategy. In turn he most likely encourages them to be their own coach and not necessarily follow his ideas to the T.

I wonder how much game planning and strategy they talk about really. Especially now that they are in the same conference chasing the same title. Maybe a reporter will ask this in a media session after the game to shed some light on the topic. I know when I was an NCO, and my younger troops started making rank and asking for advice I would be very careful of what I said and let them come to their own conclusions. It was more me guiding them to establish their own leadership style then me telling them how I do things and advising them to do things exactly the same as me. I imagine this is even more of a trend in coaching ranks with all the different personalities.

flyingdutchdevil
01-28-2015, 12:55 PM
Interesting topic, I think Coach K is probably a source for all of his former assistants. They most likely contact him for advice and maybe some minor strategy. In turn he most likely encourages them to be their own coach and not necessarily follow his ideas to the T.

I wonder how much game planning and strategy they talk about really. Especially now that they are in the same conference chasing the same title. Maybe a reporter will ask this in a media session after the game to shed some light on the topic. I know when I was an NCO, and my younger troops started making rank and asking for advice I would be very careful of what I said and let them come to their own conclusions. It was more me guiding them to establish their own leadership style then me telling them how I do things and advising them to do things exactly the same as me. I imagine this is even more of a trend in coaching ranks with all the different personalities.

Good post. I tend to agree with most of it, especially about the "being your own coach" part. I don't think that the conference matters. After all, Coach K picked and probably still picks Boeheim's brain about the zone. And they are now "mini" rivals in the ACC.

Also, if there is one thing that learned about the media blitz surrounding Coach K, it's that Coach K loves to keep up with his connections. Coach K isn't the kind of guy to say, "okay, you're a headcoach now. Go find yourself!" Rather, he'd give advise where possible and they, like any of use, would talk shop for a bit. The the degree that they talk shop is unknown, but most people in the same industry who get together often talk business.

CameronBlue
01-28-2015, 04:40 PM
It's been 20 years since Brey worked at Duke, and this is their second year in the conference. I would not put too much worry into how well Brey knows K.

I think there are 2 ways we don't win this game:
1. Okafor foul trouble (always on the list of ways for Duke to lose a game)
2. ND's gonna have to hit over 55% and more than 12 3's

And K hasn't changed his defensive philosophy in 20 years....oh wait. K is comfortable with man and it's long been a hallmark of Duke's defense to defend the 3. But that could make Duke's porous interior even porous-er. Jah does NOT defend ball screens well and has been getting killed on the baseline in recent games and help and recover isn't even on his radar screen. Further for 30 minutes St. John's played with more energy than Duke, besting Duke at another element of the game which has always been its trademark. At this stage of the team's development Duke has multiple problems to deal with.

So it will be interesting to see what defense K concocts but I think it will look more like 2010, with Duke picking up at half-court, playing a matchup zone at times that may look like straight man-to-man in order to put as much pressure on the perimeter as possible but will really be emphasizing help-and recover. I don't think K wants a repeat of what happened to the team in the Miami game; their guards drove the middle all night long. There will be opportunities for ND on the perimeter and Duke will be more concerned about limiting offensive rebounds and points in the paint. It sounds crazy but I think K is going to say, okay beat us with your best weapon, we're not going to give you anything cheap inside. It's just a bad matchup for Duke. K's a defensive strategist first, it's his impulse to play defense to your offense. Tonight I think he'll tighten up the interior defense, extend as far as possible and say, we're going to beat you on offense by being more efficient. It could work, early in the season Duke was turning in PPP numbers well above 1.0. But much will rely upon Notre Dame being average or slightly below average on the perimeter.

Devilwin
01-28-2015, 06:22 PM
As Notre Dame is at the top of the charts in three-point shooting, it seems like we should be playing man-to-man. In fact, I expect mostly man-to-man with some zone used to provide some variety and unpredictability.

I agree. They have way too many good shooters to go zone on them.

Kedsy
01-28-2015, 06:42 PM
I agree. They have way too many good shooters to go zone on them.

Maybe. Our zone still isn't all that good, though against certain teams it may be better than our man-to-man.

However, I would point out that Syracuse has played zone exclusively for millennia, and they don't seem to automatically lose to good shooting teams.

Duvall
01-28-2015, 06:48 PM
However, I would point out that Syracuse has played zone exclusively for millennia, and they don't seem to automatically lose to good shooting teams.

Except that Syracuse plays a much more aggressive zone, and plays it well. As you said, what Duke is playing really isn't comparable.

slower
01-28-2015, 06:49 PM
Without having read through this whole thread, I'm hoping that nobody is making predictions about a final score or a margin. The only fact we know is that nobody KNOWS anything about the final score or margin of any given game.

CameronBlue
01-28-2015, 07:09 PM
Without having read through this whole thread, I'm hoping that nobody is making predictions about a final score or a margin. The only fact we know is that nobody KNOWS anything about the final score or margin of any given game.

Exactly. Duke 75-67.

-jk
01-28-2015, 07:11 PM
DBR Chat (http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/misc.php?do=cchatbox) is open!

If it gets a bit slow, refresh the page. As always - please follow the DBR Posting Guidelines.

Let's Go Duke!

-jk

slower
01-28-2015, 07:19 PM
Exactly. Duke 75-67.
:p Well played!

Karl Beem
01-28-2015, 07:50 PM
Where is Tyus?

pfrduke
01-28-2015, 07:53 PM
So many missed opportunities around the hoop. We're getting great opportunities inside - just need to convert.

FerryFor50
01-28-2015, 07:55 PM
Oh look... Another team that can't miss.

35 foot 3??? Seriously?

Also how many inside shots have just rimmed out for Duke?

At least Justise looks somewhat healthy...

CDu
01-28-2015, 07:58 PM
I am beginning to think Okafor is worse than Parker defensively...

FerryFor50
01-28-2015, 07:58 PM
Weak call on Okafor there considering how physical it's been inside so far.

Devilwin
01-28-2015, 08:01 PM
No defense... Too sloppy with the ball. Okafor HAS GOT TO LEARN TO PLAY DEFENSE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

CDu
01-28-2015, 08:03 PM
Oh that is not good. Please not an ACL. Whew! Not an ACL

FerryFor50
01-28-2015, 08:04 PM
Looks like okafor might have slightly hyperextended that knee...

FerryFor50
01-28-2015, 08:05 PM
Grant is hitting some pretty impossible shots.

CDu
01-28-2015, 08:07 PM
Grant is hitting some pretty impossible shots.

Only one "impossible" shot (the open 30 footer). The rest are very makeAble for a guy as good as him.

FerryFor50
01-28-2015, 08:09 PM
Only one "impossible" shot (the open 30 footer). The rest are very makeAble for a guy as good as him.

That running on hand floater while fading away heavily guarded was pretty difficult.

CDu
01-28-2015, 08:10 PM
That running on hand floater while fading away heavily guarded was pretty difficult.

Not really. That is a pretty standard shot for a scoring guard. Cook hits that a lot. He wasn't fading away.

FerryFor50
01-28-2015, 08:11 PM
They really need to start calling post flops as blocking fouls.

Being under foot like that is dangerous.

And the Jones foul was garbage.

FerryFor50
01-28-2015, 08:13 PM
Not really. That is a pretty standard shot for a scoring guard. Cook hits that a lot. He wasn't fading away.

He wasn't going towards the rim.

He was sweeping across the lane.

CDu
01-28-2015, 08:13 PM
They really need to start calling post flops as blocking fouls.

Being under foot like that is dangerous.

And the Jones foul was garbage.

Not sure how you can say that about the Kones foul (we had no good look at it) but I totally agree on the flop.

subzero02
01-28-2015, 08:13 PM
Sulaimon with the steal... Nice anticipation

CDu
01-28-2015, 08:14 PM
He wasn't going towards the rim.

He was sweeping across the lane.

No, he turned the corner begore the shot. Was going to the basket.

FerryFor50
01-28-2015, 08:16 PM
Bad shot selection by Sheed there. Long 2 point jumper...

Just glad they have the lead despite all the near miss put backs and lay ups...

Eternal Outlaw
01-28-2015, 08:16 PM
That flop pisses me off when you flop at the feet at the big man so it limits how he can go up especially one that left the game for a moment this game already.

Devilwin
01-28-2015, 08:17 PM
Should have went to Cook at end of the half. He was five for five.

CDu
01-28-2015, 08:17 PM
Aside from Okafor's defense and a TON of missed layups, I am pleased. Notre Dame is one of the absolute best offenses in college, with one of the best scorers in the country. Holding them to 36 is not shabby.

FerryFor50
01-28-2015, 08:18 PM
Aside from Okafor's defense and a TON of missed layups, I am pleased. Notre Dame is one of the absolute best offenses in college, with one of the best scorers in the country. Holding them to 36 is not shabby.

Sure felt like more than that.

But I'll take it.

dukelifer
01-28-2015, 08:18 PM
Aside from Okafor's defense and a TON of missed layups, I am pleased. Notre Dame is one of the absolute best offenses in college, with one of the best scorers in the country. Holding them to 36 is not shabby.

Duke easily could have had 8 more points. A lid on that hoop.

-jk
01-28-2015, 08:23 PM
Duke easily could have had 8 more points. A lid on that hoop.

Well, Dame gets that hoop next! <sigh>

-jk

CDu
01-28-2015, 08:24 PM
Sure felt like more than that.

But I'll take it.

We have held them well below their average efficiency so far. They are REALLY good offensively.

jipops
01-28-2015, 08:24 PM
Aside from Okafor's defense and a TON of missed layups, I am pleased. Notre Dame is one of the absolute best offenses in college, with one of the best scorers in the country. Holding them to 36 is not shabby.

Agreed. Not too shabby so far at all

FerryFor50
01-28-2015, 08:25 PM
Well, Dame gets that hoop next! <sigh>

-jk

Great. Now they're going to hit a bunch of threes. Duke was 4-6.

-jk
01-28-2015, 08:27 PM
Great. Now they're going to hit a bunch of threes. Duke was 4-6.

Hence the <sigh>...

-jk

fgb
01-28-2015, 08:33 PM
dear jahlil, if you want to keep being allowed to not play defense, you need to not miss layups whey your efender falls down.

FerryFor50
01-28-2015, 08:34 PM
Looks like the adjustment at the half was to make Grant work on defense. Maybe get him in foul trouble in the post.

FerryFor50
01-28-2015, 08:35 PM
dear jahlil, if you want to keep being allowed to not play defense, you need to not miss layups whey your efender falls down.

Players used to do that against Mason, too. He would just dunk it. Okafor needs to watch some MP2 tape.

FerryFor50
01-28-2015, 08:37 PM
Awesome. Play great D on Grant, then travel on the rebound. Grr.

dukelifer
01-28-2015, 08:38 PM
Awesome. Play great D on Grant, then travel on the rebound. Grr.

And a 3 pt play

FerryFor50
01-28-2015, 08:39 PM
Tyus Jones does such a fantastic job at creating and finishing through contact. Love it!

dukelifer
01-28-2015, 08:40 PM
Tyus Jones does such a fantastic job at creating and finishing through contact. Love it!

He needs to do more of that

FerryFor50
01-28-2015, 08:40 PM
As expected, Pat Connaughton is a problem.

dukelifer
01-28-2015, 08:41 PM
As expected, Pat Connaughton is a problem.

Grant is the problem

FerryFor50
01-28-2015, 08:42 PM
Grant is the problem
Grant is a problem, too. But I expected Connaughton to be the real headache.

CDu
01-28-2015, 08:47 PM
This was always likely to be a "can we outscore them" kind of a game. They have some terrific individual offensive players in Grant, Connaughton, and Auguste, and they surround them with very capable role players. They are one of the best offenses in the country, and we're seeing why in this second half.

We had a chance to make this a double-digit game in the first half with how well we played defensively, but failed to finish. Now it is a dogfight.

dukelifer
01-28-2015, 08:49 PM
Wow that was a bad fall. Still don't understand why Plumlee does not explode to the basket. Someone needs to remind him that he can jump high.

FerryFor50
01-28-2015, 08:49 PM
Connaughton is going to have to pass concussion protocol. I don't think he's coming back...

Tough break for ND.

Great run by Duke. Great rebounding and solid defense the past few minutes.

FerryFor50
01-28-2015, 08:51 PM
Wow that was a bad fall. Still don't understand why Plumlee does not explode to the basket. Someone needs to remind him that he can jump high.

In that case it was because he wasn't under the basket. He was in no man's land in that spot behind the backboard. He had to dribble to get into scoring position.

dukelifer
01-28-2015, 08:51 PM
Connaughton is going to have to pass concussion protocol. I don't think he's coming back...

Tough break for ND.

Great run by Duke. Great rebounding and solid defense the past few minutes.

Aggressive play by Jones and of course it is nice to have Winslow making shots.

CDu
01-28-2015, 08:51 PM
Wow, that was scary. What an awful break for Connaughton. Hope he is okay.

FerryFor50
01-28-2015, 08:53 PM
Grant finally pays for one of those jump in the air desperation bail out passes with a turnover.

dukelifer
01-28-2015, 08:54 PM
Wow, that was scary. What an awful break for Connaughton. Hope he is okay.

He looks okay. I don't think he hit the head directly but that could have been very bad.

FerryFor50
01-28-2015, 08:55 PM
He looks okay. I think he did not hit the head directly but that could have been very bad.

I've fallen like that in a pickup game and was woozy for a good bit after.

Perhaps Connaughton's head is harder. :)

FerryFor50
01-28-2015, 08:56 PM
While I love the effort of Okafor diving for loose balls, I also do not love it. Please don't get hurt!

FerryFor50
01-28-2015, 08:57 PM
Pretty weak call on Okafor there. Sigh.

dukelifer
01-28-2015, 08:59 PM
I've fallen like that in a pickup game and was woozy for a good bit after.

Perhaps Connaughton's head is harder. :)

Geez. What a horrible sequence

Karl Beem
01-28-2015, 09:00 PM
Rebounding *(smh).

FerryFor50
01-28-2015, 09:00 PM
Gotta stop giving up offensive rebounds. Too many second chance points for a small ND team. Control the boards consistently!

dukelifer
01-28-2015, 09:01 PM
Rebounding *(smh).

Turnovers

FerryFor50
01-28-2015, 09:02 PM
Maybe try boxing out Connaughton once in a while?

Karl Beem
01-28-2015, 09:02 PM
Can't make a shot (smh).

dukelifer
01-28-2015, 09:03 PM
Maybe try boxing out Connaughton once in a while?

Two of his have killed Duke. Duke had them on the ropes and just stopped making shots

FerryFor50
01-28-2015, 09:04 PM
Now the loose balls/breaks are falling the other way.

Gotta out hustle them.

SCMatt33
01-28-2015, 09:04 PM
This entire run is about lack of effort. ND grabbed four rebound that led to the 8 points. Duke was in position for all of them

Eternal Outlaw
01-28-2015, 09:05 PM
Could we get one friendly shooters bounce this game?

Seems like a textbook game of better lucky than good, every bounce is nice for them.

dukelifer
01-28-2015, 09:06 PM
This entire run is about lack of effort. ND grabbed four rebound that led to the 8 points. Duke was in position for all of them

I am not sure it is lack of effort but poor fundamentals

FerryFor50
01-28-2015, 09:08 PM
Great hustle there by Cook.

Some bad shot selection the past few possessions.

Work it inside or drive.

fgb
01-28-2015, 09:09 PM
rebound, and make open chip shots, and we win.

FerryFor50
01-28-2015, 09:11 PM
rebound, and make open chip shots, and we win.

And hit FTs

dukelifer
01-28-2015, 09:11 PM
rebound, and make open chip shots, and we win.

Free throws

dukelifer
01-28-2015, 09:13 PM
Hack a Jah

fgb
01-28-2015, 09:14 PM
Hack a Jah

exactly. we're going to see a lot of that, i fear.

dukelifer
01-28-2015, 09:18 PM
exactly. we're going to see a lot of that, i fear.

Huge issue

FerryFor50
01-28-2015, 09:20 PM
At this point, just hoping to escape with a win. So many missed layups and FTs... should be up by 10.

dukelifer
01-28-2015, 09:20 PM
At this point, just hoping to escape with a win. So many missed layups and FTs... should be up by 10.

Duke played well enough to win but lots of mistakes - still some time

porkpa
01-28-2015, 09:21 PM
We can't seem to finish. How many in and outs have we had?

FerryFor50
01-28-2015, 09:21 PM
Another BS shot by Grant.

dukelifer
01-28-2015, 09:21 PM
Unbelievable!

FerryFor50
01-28-2015, 09:23 PM
That was a nail.

They really need to stop leaving their man when Grant goes up for a shot.

dukelifer
01-28-2015, 09:23 PM
Two ridiculous last second shots

Eternal Outlaw
01-28-2015, 09:23 PM
How frustrating to make such a great defensive play and some guy makes the luckiest shot of his life

FerryFor50
01-28-2015, 09:24 PM
Another bad decision on offense. Oh well. Shoulda coulda woulda.

FerryFor50
01-28-2015, 09:26 PM
When you're jumping at a shooter and leaning foward and make contact, that's a foul, even if you've already landed.

dukelifer
01-28-2015, 09:26 PM
50% for the line . Cannot win if you do that

subzero02
01-28-2015, 09:27 PM
Pomeroy had us losing this by 3?...

FerryFor50
01-28-2015, 09:27 PM
I know it didn't lose the game but wtf on that last Sheed shot.

Eternal Outlaw
01-28-2015, 09:27 PM
Of course the last bounce that could give us a chance goes in.

Irish were certainly the luckier team tonight