Phase IV Outlook: St. John's to UNC

[sagegrouse]

Phase IV Outlook: St. John’s to UNC

First, a word about Phase III, BC to Pitt: “Yikes!” What a roller-coaster ride that was! An defeated Duke team suffers two crashing defeats and then responds with resounding victories at Top Ten Louisville and at home against a feisty Pitt team. Naturally, that figures in our key questions for Phase IV.

Will Duke Remain Free from Injury?

So far, so good. The injury bug has bugged out and we hope it remains in seclusion. Justise Winslow is banged up but should recover by the St. John’s game.

Will the Roller Coaster Ride Continue? It could happen. The question is, “Have we now adjusted to the intensity of conference play and sail ahead or are more stormy seas ahead?”

Phase IV begins with St. John’s in MSG and continues on the road against hot-shooting teams, Notre Dame and undefeated Virginia. Duke should be an underdog against UVa and could be against Notre Dame as well. Following the two road games, the Devils return home against Georgia Tech and (again) Notre Dame. The sixth game in Phase IV is a visit to unpredictable Florida State. Then we have two big matchups: a visit to the Carrier Dome, where Duke lost in overtime last year and where the Devils face the Orange for the first time since Boeheim’s big blowup in Cameron last year. Then we host UNC on February 18. As of today, four-loss UNC (#8) is ahead of Duke (#9) in the KenPom rankings.

If Duke goes 5-3 or worse, then it has at least five losses and may be headed for a Wednesday game in the ACC Tournament.

Whither the Defense? How much zone will we see? Will the defense improve as we enter the second half of the season?

Of course, match-ups are important; three of the next eight games are against the best-shooting teams in the ACC. Notre Dame is shooting 52.8% and 40.1% from three. Virginia is shooting 48.1 percent and 39.4% from three. Looks like man-to-man to this oracle. St. John’s has had less success in shooting at 44.9% overall and 32.3% from three, but beware! State shoots only 37.4% from three but managed a scalding 62.5% against Duke. If coach K wants to keep working on the zone, he can do so against the Johnnies. Upcoming foes Georgia Tech and FSU are the poorest three-point shooters in the ACC (and the NCAA) at about 26%.

But let’s face it; we went to the zone because we were getting killed in man-to-man. A measure of the development of this Duke team is the reassertion of an effective MTM defense. These developments bear close watching.

Offense! Offense! Offense!

That’s what the fans like, including the Grouse, and so does K. Our defense, he says, is better when we are making shots. Obvious explanations are (a) the run-out possibilities when opponents rebound our misses and (b) the psychological effects on both teams.

The first thing to be said about the Duke offense is that we are really going to miss Jahlil Okafor. What a load! He will need other players to be productive on offense to remain consistent, but he seems to be money-in-the-bank on offense. And he is doing better at drawing fouls and making free throws. He is averaging eight FT’s a game in conference play and making over 70%.

Duke’s three-point shooting has been up-and-down in conference play. Here’s the series: 43%, 44%, 29%, 29%, 27%, and 48%. The outlier is our win at Louisville, despite poor shooting from outside. For the season Duke is tied for fourth in the conference at 37.4%, which is a good percentage. Clearly 3-pt. percentage will be important going forward. As Earl Weaver used to say, “Doctor Longball!”

Free-throw shooting has become an asset. Duke is averaging 73.9 percent in ACC play, helped by Jah’s improvement. Quinn and Tyus have been outstanding at the line.

The Bench.

Duke needs a strong bench, and its productivity will be important for the success of the 2015 season. Rasheed has been consistent, although sometimes erratic with ball, averaging ten PPG in conference play (despite a “0” against Louisville). He is an important player and is highly visible on the court through his dynamic play. Can Marshall continue to develop? I think his contributions on the court are better than his stats – his size seems to affect play quite a bit. Matt has been a positive presence and we will need both his defense and offense in the games ahead. Grayson has faded into the background but (he says hopefully) may see more court time in the games ahead.

The Intangibles. Will Duke assert its will against other ACC teams on a consistent basis? This is the test for the freshman-laden Blue Devils in Phase IV.

Go Devils!
Sage Grouse

[Duvall]

As of today, four-loss UNC (#8) is ahead of Duke (#9) in the KenPom rankings.

Duke opponent Wisconsin's burnination of UNC opponent Iowa has flipped this, at least for today. It's very close.

[Kedsy]

Phase IV Outlook: St. John’s to UNC

Nice overview, Sage, although technically I think St. John's was supposed to be part of my Phase III. ;) Still, always fun to have a Phase post to debate.

At this point, I think the key is the "roller coaster," as you put it. And I think the most important guy in this regard is Tyus. I still believe the team takes its personality from him, and in our two losses he clearly got down and didn't know how to get back up. If he's learned to keep steady even when the other team is on a roll, then we should have a good shot at winning any game we play (even if we end up losing one or two along the way). If he goes into shell shock like he did against NC State and Miami, well, I don't really want to think about it.

I agree with you that the team must reestablish its ability to play good man-to-man defense. That said, the players seems to enjoy playing the zone and, as you point out, other than against Notre Dame and Virginia the zone seems like a reasonable choice. Even so, if zone is going to be an ongoing part of our defense we're going to need to get better at it. And we're going to have to get better at transition defense, and also we need to get better switching it up from zone to man and back during the game.

Personally, I believe the key to most of our defensive issues is Justise stepping it up. Amile is our best communicator and steadiest defender, and Rasheed and Matt are probably our best perimeter defenders, but early in the season it seemed to me that Justise was the dynamo that made our D formidable, the defensive glue guy who cleaned up after his teammates mistakes. When he has struggled on D or gotten out of position, our defense clearly suffers. It's also possible that, being a freshman, Justise is allowing his offense to affect his defense. He's only shooting 7 for 29 (24.1%) over our last four games. Hopefully, he'll break through the freshman wall soon.

Anyway, good post, and as you so eloquently said, Go Devils!

[jv001]

Nice overview, Sage, although technically I think St. John's was supposed to be part of my Phase III. ;) Still, always fun to have a Phase post to debate.

At this point, I think the key is the "roller coaster," as you put it. And I think the most important guy in this regard is Tyus. I still believe the team takes its personality from him, and in our two losses he clearly got down and didn't know how to get back up. If he's learned to keep steady even when the other team is on a roll, then we should have a good shot at winning any game we play (even if we end up losing one or two along the way). If he goes into shell shock like he did against NC State and Miami, well, I don't really want to think about it.

I agree with you that the team must reestablish its ability to play good man-to-man defense. That said, the players seems to enjoy playing the zone and, as you point out, other than against Notre Dame and Virginia the zone seems like a reasonable choice. Even so, if zone is going to be an ongoing part of our defense we're going to need to get better at it. And we're going to have to get better at transition defense, and also we need to get better switching it up from zone to man and back during the game.
Personally, I believe the key to most of our defensive issues is Justise stepping it up. Amile is our best communicator and steadiest defender, and Rasheed and Matt are probably our best perimeter defenders, but early in the season it seemed to me that Justise was the dynamo that made our D formidable, the defensive glue guy who cleaned up after his teammates mistakes. When he has struggled on D or gotten out of position, our defense clearly suffers. It's also possible that, being a freshman, Justise is allowing his offense to affect his defense. He's only shooting 7 for 29 (24.1%) over our last four games. Hopefully, he'll break through the freshman wall soon.
Anyway, good post, and as you so eloquently said, Go Devils!

I agree with Kedsy, good Phase IV post Sage. As I was reading Sage's post, the same thing came to mind on the bolded part of Kedsy's post. I think the team can improve on the man to man defense and the zone defense. Normally at this time of the season, I would say that it's too late in the season to work on zone. But from what Coach K and some of the players have said, the team has already worked on zone(before Louisville). I don't think Coach K would have gone zone against Louisville if they had not. As for the 2nd bolded part, I believe Justise is letting his offensive problems affect his defense. Matter of fact, I believe the entire team was doing it as well. I guess the first thing that needs to happen is for Justise to get heathly. Then I look for his entire game to pickup. GoDuke!

[superdave]

Okafor's FTA and % are both up nicely since the ACC season began.

Pre-conference 29-58 (50%) and 4.8 FTA per game.
In Conference 34-49 (69.4%) and 8.2 FTA per game.

Okafor getting to the line should be like using an elite RB in football. Pound it into the post and make the opponent feel like their doom is inevitable.

If he didnt get his shot off so quickly when guarded one-on-one, his FTAs would be higher.

[tux]

Okafor's FTA and % are both up nicely since the ACC season began.

Pre-conference 29-58 (50%) and 4.8 FTA per game.
In Conference 34-49 (69.4%) and 8.2 FTA per game.

Okafor getting to the line should be like using an elite RB in football. Pound it into the post and make the opponent feel like their doom is inevitable.

If he didnt get his shot off so quickly when guarded one-on-one, his FTAs would be higher.


Great point. Both Okafor's uptick in FTA and % are a huge development for Duke. Hopefully, he continues to trend in that direction. 70% is not going to kill us. His form has always looked great to me, even when he was missing a few early. (Marc Gasol, as a quick comparison, shoots around 80% --- I think Okafor's form is good enough to get there, maybe not this year, but sometime at the next level.)

[Bob Green]

Thanks Sage, for a solid phase post. The discussions these posts generate are always enjoyable.




Whither the Defense? How much zone will we see? Will the defense improve as we enter the second half of the season?

This is certainly the most interesting question moving forward if no other reason than we've never seriously discussed it in the past. Yeah, we played zone for a possession or two, here and there, but not for significant portions of entire games as we saw against Louisville and Pitt. The zone could develop into another tool in Coach K's box; however, man-to-man defense will always be the bread and butter so the team needs to overcome their pick-n-roll deficiencies.




The Bench.

Duke needs a strong bench, and its productivity will be important for the success of the 2015 season.

Rasheed Sulaimon and Matt Jones have the ability to come off the bench and dominate on both ends of the court. This strength makes Duke very dangerous because these two versatile wing players give Coach K a lot of flexibility with the line-up. He can substitute Sulaimon and Matt Jones straight up with Quinn Cook and Tyus Jones in order to keep all four guards fresh, or he can substitute Sulaimon or Jones for Winslow, or he can move Winslow to power forward and insert Sulaimon or Matt Jones into the line-up at small forward, or he can go with one big and four guards....flexibility...it is a nice trait for a team to have.

Marshall Plumlee needs to improve his ability to stay on the court. His four fouls in seven minutes performance against Pittsburgh screamed freshman! But he is a redshirt junior.

[superdave]

Marshall Plumlee needs to improve his ability to stay on the court. His four fouls in seven minutes performance against Pittsburgh screamed freshman! But he is a redshirt junior.

I have mentioned this on a few other threads, but I'd love to see Marshall consistently get 10 minutes a game mainly for the purpose of keeping Jahlil more fresh. I'd rather have a more explosive Jahlil for 30 minutes than Jahlil chugging back on defense and getting caught out of position 3-4 times a game.

Also, Brian Zoubek played ok minutes through his junior season. It was about this time his senior season where it all came together for him. Marshall gets so much of the game and Coach K's scheme right, but it has not all come together for him yet. He should have more of an opportunity for that to happen with greater minutes next season.

[sagegrouse]

Nice overview, Sage, although technically I think St. John's was supposed to be part of my Phase III. ;) Still, always fun to have a Phase post to debate.



Oops1 You're absolutely right. Well, for the one and only time in my life, I got an early start.

[azzefkram]

Rasheed Sulaimon and Matt Jones have the ability to come off the bench and dominate on both ends of the court.

Sheed has shown the ability to be an explosive offensive player. Matt has not. I consider both good defenders but definitely not dominant defenders. Maybe with the older rules they could have been since both are strong with some length. Now I think they lack the lateral quickness.


he can move Winslow to power forward and insert Sulaimon or Matt Jones into the line-up at small forward, or he can go with one big and four guards

Coach seems to like to do this but I think more often than not it weakens our team. It takes our best rebounder and arguably our best defensive communicator off the court. Amile is also very respectable on the offensive end.


Marshall Plumlee needs to improve his ability to stay on the court. His four fouls in seven minutes performance against Pittsburgh screamed freshman!

Fouls have almost nothing to do with MP3's court time.


I have mentioned this on a few other threads, but I'd love to see Marshall consistently get 10 minutes a game mainly for the purpose of keeping Jahlil more fresh. I'd rather have a more explosive Jahlil for 30 minutes than Jahlil chugging back on defense and getting caught out of position 3-4 times a game.

I would like to see this too. As a bonus we may get some better minutes out of MP3. He seems a tad excitable. Maybe knowing he'd be in there for a longer stretch would keep him from trying to do too much.

[Saratoga2]

Thanks Sage, for a solid phase post. The discussions these posts generate are always enjoyable.


Rasheed Sulaimon and Matt Jones have the ability to come off the bench and dominate on both ends of the court. This strength makes Duke very dangerous because these two versatile wing players give Coach K a lot of flexibility with the line-up. He can substitute Sulaimon and Matt Jones straight up with Quinn Cook and Tyus Jones in order to keep all four guards fresh, or he can substitute Sulaimon or Jones for Winslow, or he can move Winslow to power forward and insert Sulaimon or Matt Jones into the line-up at small forward, or he can go with one big and four guards....flexibility...it is a nice trait for a team to have.



Normally I am pretty much in agreement with your points but I don't believe Duke has anyone else on the team who can substitute for Tyus straight up. Quinn is closest but with Tyus you have a guard who sees the floor and runs the offense with a minimum of turnovers, plus, he has shown the offensive ability that will force teams to guard him closely. Rasheed does not appear to see the floor or make plays for others. He is too turnover prone to act as a point guard. Neither is Jones or Winslow. When Quinn takes the point, ball movement slows down and there is more dribbling. He backs the PG position adequately for short periods but we need Tyus on the floor for more than 30 minutes.

[Kedsy]

Also, Brian Zoubek played ok minutes through his junior season. It was about this time his senior season where it all came together for him. Marshall gets so much of the game and Coach K's scheme right, but it has not all come together for him yet. He should have more of an opportunity for that to happen with greater minutes next season.

I'm not sure if you are, but if you're suggesting that what Marshall has done so far this season compares in any way to what Brian Zoubek did through mid-January of his senior year, that's not anywhere close to the case. At this date in 2010, Z was averaging around 15 mpg for the season and had only played single-figure minutes twice all season (and both games he played 9 minutes). And his per minute and tempo-free stats were outstanding, essentially the same as after he began starting that season, just in fewer minutes. Even if you're comparing Marshall's season-to-date to Zoubek's junior year, it's way off base -- at this point in Z's junior year he'd started every game but three and had played double-figure minutes in every game but two, averaging over 14 mpg.

I'm still hopeful that Marshall can be a contributor, a little this season and hopefully a lot next season, but Brian Zoubek was way ahead of where Marshall is now.

[BD80]

Phase IV Outlook: St. John’s to UNC ...

Whither the Defense? How much zone will we see? Will the defense improve as we enter the second half of the season? ...

But let’s face it; we went to the zone because we were getting killed in man-to-man. A measure of the development of this Duke team is the reassertion of an effective MTM defense. These developments bear close watching. ...

First: is this thread safe? I saw it reported that "the Chinese" hacked Outlook.

Second: Defense. It is all about defense. Defense will determine how far we go in the conference and, most important, in the NCAA tourney.

Whither the defense? Will it be withering or just wither? The tale of the team will be defense.

[David Bunkley]

I have mentioned this on a few other threads, but I'd love to see Marshall consistently get 10 minutes a game mainly for the purpose of keeping Jahlil more fresh. I'd rather have a more explosive Jahlil for 30 minutes than Jahlil chugging back on defense and getting caught out of position 3-4 times a game.

Also, Brian Zoubek played ok minutes through his junior season. It was about this time his senior season where it all came together for him. Marshall gets so much of the game and Coach K's scheme right, but it has not all come together for him yet. He should have more of an opportunity for that to happen with greater minutes next season.


I named my beagle Zoubek, because I figured it would take him 3 and a half years to reach his full potential. I was right. Hopefully I can name my next dog Marshall...

#GODUKE

[superdave]

I'm not sure if you are, but if you're suggesting that what Marshall has done so far this season compares in any way to what Brian Zoubek did through mid-January of his senior year, that's not anywhere close to the case. At this date in 2010, Z was averaging around 15 mpg for the season and had only played single-figure minutes twice all season (and both games he played 9 minutes). And his per minute and tempo-free stats were outstanding, essentially the same as after he began starting that season, just in fewer minutes. Even if you're comparing Marshall's season-to-date to Zoubek's junior year, it's way off base -- at this point in Z's junior year he'd started every game but three and had played double-figure minutes in every game but two, averaging over 14 mpg.

I'm still hopeful that Marshall can be a contributor, a little this season and hopefully a lot next season, but Brian Zoubek was way ahead of where Marshall is now.

I did not look up any stats to compare the two. I do recall that Zoubek had trouble staying on the court because of fouls, which limited his minutes, not to mention the injuries that slowed his first couple of seasons.

But I think the point remains the same - Zoubek began to hedge really well, rebound at an incredible pace, avoid fouls and lock down the middle with only two months to go in his college career. I do not expect Marshall to match Zoubek's senior output, but I think he can be a very valuable starting center for us next season, especially on the defensive end. Marshall's effort and athleticism are fantastic. I hope he can channel that for 20 minutes a game next year.

[Jeffrey]

Grayson has faded into the background but (he says hopefully) may see more court time in the games ahead.

Hi,

Why do you want to see Grayson get more PT during this critical time? Do you think we need another guard in the mix? Would it be more prudent for Coach to invest those minutes in other bench players?

[sagegrouse]

Hi,

Why do you want to see Grayson get more PT during this critical time? Do you think we need another guard in the mix? Would it be more prudent for Coach to invest those minutes in other bench players?

Only because he would help the team. More playing time would mean he has raised his game and gotten more comfortable with playing at the college level. He's got a lot of the pieces -- now they need to get stitched together.

And it doesn't mean he'll play much against ND and Virginia, but there may be opportunities in the other games.

[Kedsy]

I do recall that Zoubek had trouble staying on the court because of fouls, which limited his minutes, not to mention the injuries that slowed his first couple of seasons.

You're right, here, about Zoubek. He had a slew of injuries and fouled a lot. Of course he still fouled a lot in the last two months of his college career, just not quite as much:

FOULS PER 40 MINUTES

Zoubek, 2006-07: 6.3
Zoubek, 2007-08: 6.6
Zoubek, 2008-09: 12.5
Zoubek, 2009-10, before "magic" game against Maryland: 8.8
Zoubek, 2010, from "magic" game, forward: 6.1

But, again, this is not a similarity with Marshall, who does NOT foul at a particularly high rate (notwithstanding his 4 fouls in 7 minutes against Pitt):

Mar Plumlee, 2012-13: 4.0
Mar Plumlee, 2013-14: 4.6
Mar Plumlee, 2014-15, before the Pitt game: 5.4


But I think the point remains the same - Zoubek began to hedge really well, rebound at an incredible pace, avoid fouls and lock down the middle with only two months to go in his college career.

Well, my point is that other than avoiding fouls, Zoubek did all these things way earlier than with two months to go in his college career. He did make a jump before the beginning of his senior year, presumably because it was his first injury-free season, but it wasn't that big a jump and like I said it happened from the beginning of the season. I went to three games we played in New York that year and marveled at how good Z's defense was in those games in November and December, 2009.

As for his incredible rebounding pace, again he took a jump (but not that big of one) his senior year, but it was more or less the same before and after he moved into the starting lineup:

REBOUNDING PERCENTAGE (def reb%/off reb%):

Zoubek, 2006-07: 20.2/16.9
Zoubek, 2007-08: 19.5/16.1
Zoubek, 2008-09: 18.9/16.7
Zoubek, 2009-10: 24.4/21.6

I don't have the rebounding percentages before and after the famous first Maryland game that year, but Z's rebounds per 40 minutes were 16.3 before the Maryland game and 16.9 after (and including) the Maryland game. Essentially exactly the same.

Marshall, on the other hand, has been a very good offensive rebounder his whole career, and a mediocre defensive rebounder:

Mar Plumlee, 2012-13: 13.4/12.2
Mar Plumlee, 2013-14: 14.1/16.6
Mar Plumlee, 2014-15: 14.4/16.6



I do not expect Marshall to match Zoubek's senior output, but I think he can be a very valuable starting center for us next season, especially on the defensive end. Marshall's effort and athleticism are fantastic. I hope he can channel that for 20 minutes a game next year.

Here's where we finally agree. I have hopes that Marshall can be a valuable contributor next season, hopefully in 15 to 20 mpg. I actually have hopes that he can be a decent contributor by the end of this season, in 8 to 10 mpg.

[Jeffrey]

Well, he has the form to be a much better shooter and scorer than Matt Jones, who is getting fast break layups blocked on a regular basis. Right now, MJones has a better 3FG% than GAllen, but MJones' form is fugly-but-effective, whereas GAllen's form looks much better and shot the 3ball quite well prior to ACC play.


Hi,

Who plays better D, Matt or Grayson? Is it close?


I think what Sage is getting at is: if we start seeing more Grayson it means that he has improved parts of his game that were lacking, to the point where he deserves that time, not that the coaches are just gonna hand it to him. If GAllen improves to the point where he sees more court time, then that is a good thing for Duke, cuz it'll mean that he's doing something well that he wasn't before.

Whose minutes would Grayson be getting and what would it say about that player's development? Are you sure that would be a good thing for Duke?

[superdave]

You're right, here, about Zoubek. He had a slew of injuries and fouled a lot. Of course he still fouled a lot in the last two months of his college career, just not quite as much:

FOULS PER 40 MINUTES

Zoubek, 2006-07: 6.3
Zoubek, 2007-08: 6.6
Zoubek, 2008-09: 12.5
Zoubek, 2009-10, before "magic" game against Maryland: 8.8
Zoubek, 2010, from "magic" game, forward: 6.1

But, again, this is not a similarity with Marshall, who does NOT foul at a particularly high rate (notwithstanding his 4 fouls in 7 minutes against Pitt):

Mar Plumlee, 2012-13: 4.0
Mar Plumlee, 2013-14: 4.6
Mar Plumlee, 2014-15, before the Pitt game: 5.4



Well, my point is that other than avoiding fouls, Zoubek did all these things way earlier than with two months to go in his college career. He did make a jump before the beginning of his senior year, presumably because it was his first injury-free season, but it wasn't that big a jump and like I said it happened from the beginning of the season. I went to three games we played in New York that year and marveled at how good Z's defense was in those games in November and December, 2009.

As for his incredible rebounding pace, again he took a jump (but not that big of one) his senior year, but it was more or less the same before and after he moved into the starting lineup:

REBOUNDING PERCENTAGE (def reb%/off reb%):

Zoubek, 2006-07: 20.2/16.9
Zoubek, 2007-08: 19.5/16.1
Zoubek, 2008-09: 18.9/16.7
Zoubek, 2009-10: 24.4/21.6

I don't have the rebounding percentages before and after the famous first Maryland game that year, but Z's rebounds per 40 minutes were 16.3 before the Maryland game and 16.9 after (and including) the Maryland game. Essentially exactly the same.

Marshall, on the other hand, has been a very good offensive rebounder his whole career, and a mediocre defensive rebounder:

Mar Plumlee, 2012-13: 13.4/12.2
Mar Plumlee, 2013-14: 14.1/16.6
Mar Plumlee, 2014-15: 14.4/16.6



Here's where we finally agree. I have hopes that Marshall can be a valuable contributor next season, hopefully in 15 to 20 mpg. I actually have hopes that he can be a decent contributor by the end of this season, in 8 to 10 mpg.


Good stuff. Thanks for the analysis, Kedsy.

I also remember getting really excited about Zoubek's impact on the game his junior season, vs. Texas (http://scores.espn.go.com/ncb/boxscore?gameId=294000028), to get into the Sweet 16. Dexter Pittman was throwing our frontcourt around, Coach K inserted Z and he was able to stand Pittman down. There were times over the prior couple of seasons where Zoubek was not available, so it was great to have that size when it was really needed.

Do you think Marshall's minutes could go up vs. teams where we need to play more man-to-man? I could see Okafor playing 35 minutes in a zone because it is a little less strenuous for him, keeps him out of foul trouble and he doesnt have to follow his man past the 3-point line.

[Kedsy]

Do you think Marshall's minutes could go up vs. teams where we need to play more man-to-man? I could see Okafor playing 35 minutes in a zone because it is a little less strenuous for him, keeps him out of foul trouble and he doesnt have to follow his man past the 3-point line.

I'm hoping Marshall's minutes go back up to the 8 to 10 mpg range no matter what defense we're playing, but my realistic guess is he'll play more against weaker opponents and less against stronger opponents. If I'm right, that means fewer minutes in games like Virginia and Notre Dame, even though those are teams against which we'll likely need to play more man-to-man.

[jv001]

Hi,

Who plays better D, Matt or Grayson? Is it close?



Whose minutes would Grayson be getting and what would it say about that player's development? Are you sure that would be a good thing for Duke?

Sure it would be a good thing, if Grayson is playing better than "that"player. GoDuke!

[FellowTraveler]

The problem with having poor form is it's harder to reproduce a successful shot

There's a difference between "poor form" and "consistent form."


and this leads to a shooter being streaky. ... in the 10 games from 11/30 to 1/13 (more than half the season so far), Matt shot only 4 for 20 from three-land, for a very poor 20%. And that's why many people are concerned about what the shot looks like, even if you aren't.

Do you have a player in mind who had good (and consistent) form who did not have a stretch of shooting comparable to 4 for 20?

Hint: It isn't Andre Dawkins, who was almost unanimously described as having great form but a streaky shot.

Not Seth Curry, either: He had a 4-19 (21%) three-point shooting stretch over three games as a senior.

Kyle Singler had solid, consistent form. As a senior, he made 5 of 39 (13%) three-pointers over an 11 game stretch.

Jon Scheyer was a pretty good shooter whose senior year is often cited as a model of steadiness. It included a three-game stretch in which he shot 5-25 (20%) from three.

J.J. Redick's form was so good (and consistent) he made an instructional video. He shot 5 for 22 (23%) from three in the first four games of his sophomore year, and had a 9/41 (22%) stretch later in the year. As a senior, he was as good a shooter as anyone could hope to see -- and had a four game stretch in which he made 8 of 36 three-pointers (22%).

People love to label shooters "streaky," but we're pretty bad at actually identifying shooters who are streaky. This is in part because even when we do bother to check a player's numbers, we don't bother to compare them to anything. A shooter with a good overall shooting percentage but a subset of games in which he goes 4 for 20 might sound "streaky" -- but it doesn't really mean anything until we compare him to other players to determine whether he really is unusually streaky.

EDIT TO ADD: I'm not sold on Matt Jones as a great shooter, by the way. But that's because through 61 college three-point attempts, he's made 31 percent, not because I have any idea whether the distribution of those made shots is unusual.

[Kedsy]

There's a difference between "poor form" and "consistent form."

True enough. Though I think those with poor form are more likely to have less consistent form.


People love to label shooters "streaky," but we're pretty bad at actually identifying shooters who are streaky. This is in part because even when we do bother to check a player's numbers, we don't bother to compare them to anything. A shooter with a good overall shooting percentage but a subset of games in which he goes 4 for 20 might sound "streaky" -- but it doesn't really mean anything until we compare him to other players to determine whether he really is unusually streaky.

I'm pretty sure the only guy on your list who shot 20% on threes over a period of 10 games (getting 2+ three-attempts per game) was Kyle Singler, who either was streaky or was prone to half-season slumps.

And I suppose I should have expected someone to argue with me about "streaky" because a lot of people around here don't believe there is such a thing. But I'd think if there'd be anything we could agree on it would be that a shooter with inconsistent (going with your term) form can be prone to streakiness, no?



EDIT TO ADD: I'm not sold on Matt Jones as a great shooter, by the way. But that's because through 61 college three-point attempts, he's made 31 percent, not because I have any idea whether the distribution of those made shots is unusual.

Matt's first 21 college three-point attempts: 14.3%
Matt's next 17 college three-point attempts: 58.8%
Matt's next 20 college three-point attempts: 20.0%

He may not be that good a shooter, and you may believe that everything that looks like a streak is actually basic random variation, but the above seems pretty streaky to me.

[gumbomoop]

Meant to watch some of last night's Marquette @ StJ, but only caught last few minutes. Anyone see a good portion, and can comment?

Lavin appears to go with 6 main guys, not a lot of size, with 6'6" Pointer as the de facto and solid rebounding point/PF. Is this correct? No classic PG, little interior depth, but strong guards? Obekpa looks like a shot-blocker, maybe Pointer, too.

I have to assume that Wojo's guys did not receive StJ's "best shot," but we probably will. And on that theme, has Duke frequently been the recipient of opponents' best shot last few seasons because of our D-deficiencies?

[FellowTraveler]

I'm pretty sure the only guy on your list who shot 20% on threes over a period of 10 games (getting 2+ three-attempts per game)

If we're assessing shooting streakiness, shots taken seems the appropriate sample rather than games played. And I used the shots taken sample size (20 shots) you used for Matt Jones as my basis for comparison, so the implication that my list is irrelevant to your assessment of Jones is ... not particularly compelling.


He may not be that good a shooter, and you may believe that everything that looks like a streak is actually basic random variation, but the above seems pretty streaky to me.

Of course it does, if you don't compare it to anything. Just like making 38 percent of three-point shots seems pretty bad, too, if you don't know what percentages are typical.

You can dismiss my position that you haven't established Jones' streakiness as mere "belief" if you like, but of the two of us I'm the only one who actually compared Jones to other players rather than relying on belief and assumption.

[sagegrouse]

Does anyone have an opinion on how Duke will do in Phase IV?

[Jeffrey]

Does anyone have an opinion on how Duke will do in Phase IV?

Hi,

I've been known to wager (even professionally :D ). We've built significant confidence the last two games, we have the best coach and player in the game, so I really like our odds.

[superdave]

Does anyone have an opinion on how Duke will do in Phase IV?

I have seen little of Virginia this year, but Unc scares me more with their combination of size and athleticism.

If we split those games, I'd bet Uva cannot handle Okafor but Unc can. Just a hunch.

[Duvall]

I have seen little of Virginia this year, but Unc scares me more with their combination of size and athleticism.


Virginia has as much size and better athleticism than UNC. They also shoot better, turn the ball over less, rebound better and defend better.

UNC is...on television more?

[DukieInBrasil]

If we're assessing shooting streakiness, shots taken seems the appropriate sample rather than games played. And I used the shots taken sample size (20 shots) you used for Matt Jones as my basis for comparison, so the implication that my list is irrelevant to your assessment of Jones is ... not particularly compelling.



Of course it does, if you don't compare it to anything. Just like making 38 percent of three-point shots seems pretty bad, too, if you don't know what percentages are typical.

You can dismiss my position that you haven't established Jones' streakiness as mere "belief" if you like, but of the two of us I'm the only one who actually compared Jones to other players rather than relying on belief and assumption.

Actually 38% is not just "belief and assumption", since we have reams of data and knowledge of what 3FG%s are, and 38% is pretty good. Any of the numbers cited measure up because we have thousands upon thousands of comparisons to draw from. Just because you compared numbers to other players does not mean that the counter position is belief or assumptions.
Matt Jones was shooting really well earlier this year, when Duke was playing weak teams. He has not shot well lately, overall, now that Duke is playing better teams. Is it streakiness? Is it competition? Make of that what you will. What i make of it is that Matt has not established himself as a good 3pt shooter at the collegiate level, yet.

[jv001]

Actually 38% is not just "belief and assumption", since we have reams of data and knowledge of what 3FG%s are, and 38% is pretty good. Any of the numbers cited measure up because we have thousands upon thousands of comparisons to draw from. Just because you compared numbers to other players does not mean that the counter position is belief or assumptions.
Matt Jones was shooting really well earlier this year, when Duke was playing weak teams. He has not shot well lately, overall, now that Duke is playing better teams. Is it streakiness? Is it competition? Make of that what you will. What i make of it is that Matt has not established himself as a good 3pt shooter at the collegiate level, yet.

I think you've hit something here. The competition has gotten better even though we did play some good teams before the ACC regular season began. For the most part teams have gotten better both offensively but in particular on defense. There is a big difference in shooting a wide open three than shooting a contested three. When a player knows that the defense is closing quickly, there's an urgency to get the shot off quickly. Quinn has a pretty quick release on his jumper, and doesn't have to rush his shot, but Matt has a slow release and has to rush his shot unless he's wide open. That's where good form helps. If a player shoots his shot at the height of his jump, it's harder to block. Quinn get's good elevation on his shot so with the quick release and elevation he doesn't have to rush. Matt shoots his shot more like a push shot and not a jumper. He let's the ball go while going up, so with the slow release and not much elevation sometimes he has to rush his shot. I don't know if at this time in his career he can change his form and be a consistent jump shooter. But if my memory serves me correctly, Grant Hill had a shot similar to Matt's and he hired a shooting specialist to help him out. He developed a true jump shot that he used affectively both in college and in the NBA. It might have been Chip England that was his shot doctor. Maybe a trip to the shot doctor is what Matt needs. Just my 2 cents worth and that's all it's worth. GoDuke!

[CDu]

Actually 38% is not just "belief and assumption", since we have reams of data and knowledge of what 3FG%s are, and 38% is pretty good. Any of the numbers cited measure up because we have thousands upon thousands of comparisons to draw from. Just because you compared numbers to other players does not mean that the counter position is belief or assumptions.
Matt Jones was shooting really well earlier this year, when Duke was playing weak teams. He has not shot well lately, overall, now that Duke is playing better teams. Is it streakiness? Is it competition? Make of that what you will. What i make of it is that Matt has not established himself as a good 3pt shooter at the collegiate level, yet.

I think you misread FellowTraveler's post. The "belief and assumption" was the discussion of streakiness; not the 38%. It would be "belief and assumption" if you said that 38% was a good or bad percentage without looking at the myriad of data we have. Similarly, saying "so-and-so is a streaky shooter" without comparing his supposedly streaky data with the myriad of data available from other shooters is belief and assumption and not supported by facts.

Is FellowTraveler making an assumption that Kedsy's argument that Jones is streaky is based primarily on belief and assumption? Sure. But I don't think it is an unreasonable statement, considering that (as FellowTraveler said) the argument that he was streaky was presented solely on Jones's performance and not relative to other shooters.

The issue we have with Jones in this context is that he has a very small sample size of attempts. The guy doesn't play a lot, and doesn't shoot all that much when he is in the game. So his career to date is a very small sample size. Because of that, what might be normal ups and downs can look like a wildly streaky player. Whereas a player like Singler/Scheyer/Redick and others get a lot of attempts per game, and thus their similar streaks can get lost in the wash.

So it is certainly possible that Jones is a streaky shooter. It is certainly possible that he is no more streaky than some of our best shooters. It's possible that he is a below-average shooter. It is also possible that he is a good shooter who just hasn't gotten enough playing time and attempts for that to be evident.

[NYBri]

I have seen little of Virginia this year, but Unc scares me more with their combination of size and athleticism.
Virginia scares me. They have the defense to shut down anyone, and they usually do.

[jv001]

I have seen little of Virginia this year, but Unc scares me more with their combination of size and athleticism.
If we split those games, I'd bet Uva cannot handle Okafor but Unc can. Just a hunch.

But Virginia has an excellent coach and the cheaters have old roy. :cool: GoDuke!

[CDu]

Sage post by the grouse. Thanks for the hard work!

Here are my thoughts on this phase game-by-game:

St John's: I would expect to see the zone continued against St John's, because (like Louisville and Pitt) they are not a strong 3pt shooting team. They have a few capable shooters in Russell, Greene, and Stewart, but as a team they shoot just 31.8% from 3.

Notre Dame is not strong defensively, and they certainly don't have an answer for Okafor inside. Even better, they tend to play small, with an undersized-but-extremely-tough SF playing PF for most of the game. So one of our perceived weaknesses should not be on display there. Although the counterargument could be that, because they can spread us out, we are more exposed defensively to breakdowns. Still, I'd expect to see more man-to-man in this game because Notre Dame is the best shooting team on our schedule.

UVa is a bit of a question. Their offensive efficiency is being buoyed thus far by some potentially unsustainably high 3pt shooting by guys not known as great 3pt shooters (Anderson and Shayok). Their guards are not incredibly strong off the dribble, but certainly are capable. So we might be best served in man-to-man against them. The only question is that they are BIG and interchangeable. They play just one regular who is below 6'5". So they can get you in matchup hell if you aren't careful in man-to-man, and they are not at all easy to exploit defensively. That is just going to be a tough, tough game whether we play man or zone.

Georgia Tech and FSU are not good. It is nice that this is a home game so we are less likely to get caught relaxing in this matchup. We should win these ones comfortably, though of course anything can happen. I would expect to see the zone in these games.

Since the injury to McCullough, Syracuse is just not the same Syracuse that we are used to seeing over the years. They were beaten handily by Clemson, they had to eek out wins over bottom-feeders Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, and Wake Forest, and they had to struggle a bit to beat BC. They struggle to shoot and they struggle to score. They are okay defensively, but not great. It's just a very unimpressive team now. Very limited guard play, and not enough quality on the back line (only Christmas is a real impact player). We should zone them religiously.

UNC is the other tough game in this phase. They are BIG. The challenge with them is which defense works best? Aside from Paige, they can't shoot, so zone would seemingly make sense. Conversely, though, they are an unbelievable offensive rebounding team, so a zone would put us at risk of getting destroyed on the glass. I would say that we play a man-to-man, but the "11" version (i.e., don't pick up pressure until at or inside the 3pt line).

I'm hoping for at least 5 wins during this stretch of games. There are four games I'd absolutely expect a win (@St. John's, vs Georgia Tech, @FSU, @Syraucse), two games I'd expect a loss (@UVa, @UNC), and two games that are kind of all over the place (Notre Dame and @Notre Dame). In a best-realistic case world, I'd see 6 or 7 wins, meaning at least the 4 favored matchups, the home game against Notre Dame, and one or two of our three really tough road games. But anything less than 5 wins would be a disappointing stretch, and anything above 6 wins should be considered a REALLY good stretch.

[gumbomoop]

St John's: I would expect to see the zone continued against St John's, because (like Louisville and Pitt) they are not a strong 3pt shooting team. They have a few capable shooters in Russell, Greene, and Stewart, but as a team they shoot just 31.8% from 3.

Friendly amendment: It's Harrison, not Russell. Different D'Angelo. Harrison looks their best player, but not as good a 3-bomber as Ohio State's Russell.

Still hoping for a scouting report on St. John's from one or more of our NY area posters. Maybe in the forthcoming St. John's thread?

[CDu]

Friendly amendment: It's Harrison, not Russell. Different D'Angelo. Harrison looks their best player, but not as good a 3-bomber as Ohio State's Russell.

Still hoping for a scouting report on St. John's from one or more of our NY area posters. Maybe in the forthcoming St. John's thread?

Amendment accepted. Too many D'Angelos leading their teams in scoring this year.

[Duvall]

I'm hoping for at least 5 wins during this stretch of games. There are four games I'd absolutely expect a win (@St. John's, vs Georgia Tech, @FSU, @Syraucse), two games I'd expect a loss (@UVa, @UNC), and two games that are kind of all over the place (Notre Dame and @Notre Dame). In a best-realistic case world, I'd see 6 or 7 wins, meaning at least the 4 favored matchups, the home game against Notre Dame, and one or two of our three really tough road games. But anything less than 5 wins would be a disappointing stretch, and anything above 6 wins should be considered a REALLY good stretch.

Duke is playing the home game against UNC during this stretch.

[CDu]

Duke is playing the home game against UNC during this stretch.

Uggh, brain not working. In that case, move the UNC to a group with the Notre Dame games. Still expect 5-6 wins in the bunch, but closer to 6 now than to 5. And will be that much more disappointed with 4 or fewer. Thanks for the correction.

[NSDukeFan]

Second: Defense. It is all about defense. Defense will determine how far we go in the conference and, most important, in the NCAA tourney.

Whither the defense? Will it be withering or just wither? The tale of the team will be defense.

I pretty much agree. I believe Duke will continue to have one of the best offences in the country for the rest of the year. Unfortunately, that doesn't prevent cold spells, so I am hoping the team can consistently get stops when needed for the rest of the year and even more so after this phase.

[Saratoga2]

With St Johns behind us I think we can see the following trajectory for the team:

Offensively

Jahlil is learning more and more to cope with the double team
Quinn continues to be a consistent and reliable scorer
Tyus is demonstrating he not only can run an offense but he can contribute points in many ways
Amile's play around the basket when Jahlil is double teamed is giving us another solid contribution

Matt is doing a solid job and is improving
We really miss Justise's offensive presence. He has been unable to score of late and that is likely to improve as he recovers from injuries
Rasheed is up and down. Lets hope for more ups going forward.

Defensively

Our transition defense has a long way to go. Getting back quickly in transition needs to be an area of concentration
Our defense needs to be flexible with M-to-M and Zone being used and a variety of looks. Possibly the M-to-M shouldn't be extended.
Marshall, when used in the right spots, can really improve the defense and rebounding. He hustles back with maximum effort.

ND will test our defense and UVA will test both our offense and defense.

[duketaylor]

given the recent circumstances as our team has a changed dynamic(s)/paradigm shift.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Just goes to show that despite breaking the season into phases, the biggest factor can still be something wildly unforeseen.

[sagegrouse]

given the recent circumstances as our team has a changed dynamic(s)/paradigm shift.


Just goes to show that despite breaking the season into phases, the biggest factor can still be something wildly unforeseen.

Let's see what I can come up with... :rolleyes:

[elvis14]

given the recent circumstances as our team has a changed dynamic(s)/paradigm shift.

Like most phase threads, this thread was started asking if we can stay healthy. Losing Rasheed to dismissal is in many ways just like losing him to a season ending injury. The difference, of course, is the effect it'll have on the rest of team. That's the part we don't know yet.