Struggling: Duke's Been Here Before -- Al's Take

[sagegrouse]

Concern vs. panic vs. doom?

Great article, Al. People of my generation will appreciate your opening passage: "It was a bleak Wednesday morning in Durham - cold, dark with overcast and wet with a freezing drizzle of rain." Kinda like the final scene in Hemingway's A Farewell to Arms, when Nick was leaving the hospital. [Mod: 1929? You were around in 1929?] But the situation today at Duke is more "concern" -- that was DOOM. I believe "panic" tends to occur mostly when we play at the PNC Arena.

Your recitation of past adjustments brings back good memories -- Carrawell for Newton, Reggie Love, Scheyer and EWill. But that was Patrick Davidson dismantling Chris Paul, not Jordan Davidson. Ah, the stuff of legends!

It's a huge problem to have three freshman in the starting lineup, but it's a huge advantage to have the same three be some of the most talented players in college hoops. We've had a setback, but we can work through it, and I am sure the coaches are making changes and working on the mental aspects of the game. I doubt there are lineup changes -- we need to build the confidence of the freshman -- they are more likely confused than complacent.

The other point is that Duke teams, even green ones, seem to come together faster than teams from other schools -- we have a lot of great wins in November and December, such as the definitive win over Wisconsin. But other teams catch up a bit, and then there is the intensity of conference play, where the coaches and many of the players are very familiar with Duke and Cameron.

I do have concern, but I believe the Blue Devil ship will right itself and sail through the "cold seas, dark with overcast and wet with a freezing drizzle of rain." I believe that passage is somewhere in Patrick O'Brien's Master and Commander series.

[sagegrouse]

Kinda like the final scene in Hemingway's A Farewell to Arms, when Nick was leaving the hospital. .

Ooops! I never look up Hemingway, but now I remember that the hero was not Nick (as in Nick Adams) but Frederick Henry.

[rtnorthrup]

It was a very good article and one the fanbase needs to hear/read.

One exception, I do not consider last year to be a good example of Coach K correcting defensive deficiencies. I think ultimately the ACC tourney and Mercer game showed that Coach K was holding last year's team together with bubble gum and scotch tape, and an insanely talented offensive team.

That said, I do not think this year's team is anything like last year's team and I don't think that major changes are necessary. There is a really good thread on optimism on this board which sets out a number of reasons why it is not panic time yet. First, NC State and Miami made shots. In fact, Lacy and Rodriquez took and made shots that most players don't even attempt. Just like everyone knew that we weren't going to continue to hold teams to 20% from 3-point range, it is not likely to think that teams will continue to shoot +50% from 3-point range. The Miami game was an avalanche in the second half, not something that I think many teams, even good teams, can replicate.

Okafor is struggling mentally on the offensive side of the ball, and I think he is carrying that baggage with him to the defensive side. The quick double is really having the effect of slowing his game down as he now has to catch, identify the double, look for the open wing player, then either re-post or get rebounding position. He will work through this and Coach K will adjust his positioning to make it harder to double him. As the season goes on, I expect our offensive efficiency to continue to creep back up to where it was in the pre-conference part of our season. That will help us withstand some opposing runs. Getting a couple of baskets does wonders to the confidence.

The only real struggle I see right now is with Winslow. He clearly seems to have lost his mojo. Jabari went through this about the same time last year. This may sound weird, but his offensive game is too advanced, and I think that is causing him problems. I think, as a Freshman, its easier if your game is one dimensional. You know what you do well and you do it. When you can do everything well, sometimes the number of potential choices can become paralyzing. I sense that Winslow isn't sure when to drive, when to take his jumper, when to feed the post etc. Again, I think he will work through this. Jabari and Rodney worked themselves out of offensive slumps last year.

Some of the defensive breakdowns against Miami were execution, not tactics. Matt Jones and Quinn Cook didn't always find the secondary help rotation. We were often a step slow on help defense. Matt also picked up some foul trouble which didn't help. I think we may see some adjustments, perhaps we go back to a hard hedge by the bigs on ball screens. Perhaps we go back to switching all ball screens. I think this team is athletic enough to give Coach K plenty of options on the defensive side of the ball.

To me, the biggest reason for optimism is Amile and Quinn. I think their leadership and work ethic pulls us through.

[DukeDevilDeb]

Al Featherston is one of my favorite writers and commentators. He keeps his feet on the ground and is able to identify the good and the bad about Duke teams... he isn't Chicken Little but isn't Pollyanna either! But there is an error in today's story.

Al says: -- "2005: Coach K didn't like his team's energy after back-to-back losses at Maryland and at Virginia Tech. He responded by starting walk-on Jordan Davidson against Chris Paul and No. 5 Wake Forest. Davidson played less than two minutes, but his energy and defensive intensity rubbed off on his teammates. The Devils beat the Deacs that night and won nine of the next 10 games, including the ACC title."

For those of us old enough to remember, this was the infamous PATRICK DAVIDSON, not his brother Jordan (who didn't come until 2006). Can anyone ever forget Patrick's assertiveness and passion? He has received more time on these boards than many other players!

Anyway, Al, great job... and confusion over the Davidson brothers is probably not surprising! I had both of them in class (terrific guys, by the way) and sometimes couldn't remember who was who.

GO DEVILS!!!! Where is Patrick when we need him? ;)

[nocilla]

Ooops! I never look up Hemingway, but now I remember that the hero was not Nick (as in Nick Adams) but Frederick Henry.

I thought it was Patrick Davidson.

[CoSprings]

The comparison to last year as an appeal toward optimism is completely off mark. Last year's team never learned to play defense, never protected the rim and though they road an emotional wave through February, the changes weren't sustainable. No one needs to be reminded of the Mercer debacle when we continued to press their guards who did the exact same thing as Miami did on Tuesday night.

I agree that K has an incredible track record of success in pushing the right buttons, but last year's team isn't the greatest example. If maybe for nothing else, we just didn't have the components to allow him to be successful.

[Kedsy]

The only real struggle I see right now is with Winslow. He clearly seems to have lost his mojo.

Very strong post, overall. But I have to take issue with the above statement. Justise had his best game of the season two games ago. He has scored in double-figures in three of our four ACC games (though I admit he shot a poor percentage while scoring 10 points against NC State). He simply had one bad game against Miami. And I can't imagine one bad game (or even two) being the same thing as having "lost his mojo." And I would point out he didn't have a great offensive game against Wisconsin either (though he did play good defense), and he was kind of weak against Furman, too. But nobody said he'd lost anything then.

Assuming he doesn't lose his confidence from his one bad game against Miami, I assume he'll be fine. I just don't see this being a struggle or an issue or anything but a blip.

[rtnorthrup]

Very strong post, overall. But I have to take issue with the above statement. Justise had his best game of the season two games ago. He has scored in double-figures in three of our four ACC games (though I admit he shot a poor percentage while scoring 10 points against NC State). He simply had one bad game against Miami. And I can't imagine one bad game (or even two) being the same thing as having "lost his mojo." And I would point out he didn't have a great offensive game against Wisconsin either (though he did play good defense), and he was kind of weak against Furman, too. But nobody said he'd lost anything then.

Assuming he doesn't lose his confidence from his one bad game against Miami, I assume he'll be fine. I just don't see this being a struggle or an issue or anything but a blip.

His body language seems to be different, even in the Wake game. Not down on the kid at all, I think he is just trying to find his game at the same time that we as a team are struggling.

[FerryFor50]

His body language seems to be different, even in the Wake game. Not down on the kid at all, I think he is just trying to find his game at the same time that we as a team are struggling.

Eh, did you not see how pumped he was in the Wake game as he answered Devin Thomas's constant woofing with woofing of his own?

Winslow in general this season has had very measured and controlled body language.

[jv001]

Very strong post, overall. But I have to take issue with the above statement. Justise had his best game of the season two games ago. He has scored in double-figures in three of our four ACC games (though I admit he shot a poor percentage while scoring 10 points against NC State). He simply had one bad game against Miami. And I can't imagine one bad game (or even two) being the same thing as having "lost his mojo." And I would point out he didn't have a great offensive game against Wisconsin either (though he did play good defense), and he was kind of weak against Furman, too. But nobody said he'd lost anything then.

Assuming he doesn't lose his confidence from his one bad game against Miami, I assume he'll be fine. I just don't see this being a struggle or an issue or anything but a blip.

Miami overplayed Justise to keep him from driving from right to left. That had been his bread and butter play in several games. I don't think he lost his mo-jo(whatever that is) but has been a little inconsistent. I believe if Justise sees the ball go in the basket from the perimeter, he'll be just fine. GoDuke!

[jv001]

We seem to have two threads on this topic. Mods might want to combine these two. :cool: GoDuke!

[superdave]

Anyone else think we may see Rasheed move into the starting lineup for the next few games to hound the opposing PG from the start in order to set the tone?

I could also see either Okafor sag back on the high screen and roll or Marshall play more in those situations because he's proven to hedge well. I know Al does not think Coach K will play much if any zone, but I think throwing a zone for a couple of possessions at a hot time is a great curveball. Coach K learned some of that from Boeheim so it is a possibility in small doses.

[jv001]

Anyone else think we may see Rasheed move into the starting lineup for the next few games to hound the opposing PG from the start in order to set the tone?

I could also see either Okafor sag back on the high screen and roll or Marshall play more in those situations because he's proven to hedge well. I know Al does not think Coach K will play much if any zone, but I think throwing a zone for a couple of possessions at a hot time is a great curveball. Coach K learned some of that from Boeheim so it is a possibility in small doses.

If Rasheed starts, who sits? Amile, Quinn, Tyus, Justise because I don't see Jahlil as the 6th man and we need Amile in the lineup because of his defense(communication). Coach K might start Rasheed or Matt, but though I don't want to see Amile and Matt paired together for long stretches because neither have shown they can consistently score from the perimeter. GoDuke!

[Monmouth77]

If Rasheed starts, who sits? Amile, Quinn, Tyus, Justise because I don't see Jahlil as the 6th man and we need Amile in the lineup because of his defense(communication). Coach K might start Rasheed or Matt, but though I don't want to see Amile and Matt paired together for long stretches because neither have shown they can consistently score from the perimeter. GoDuke!

I posted this same basic comment somewhere in the marathon Miami post-mortem thread, but it could make sense in this particular game to play a lineup of ballhandlers, which could include Tyus-Cook-Sulaimon-Winslow 1-4. This would allow us to deal more confidently with Louisville's full court pressure, and Winslow might be the right matchup against Montrezl Harrell, who outweighs Amile by 25 pounds and plays even bigger. It also give us 4 shooters around Jahlil.

I wouldn't expect to see this lineup for the whole game or anything, and maybe if Coach K wants primarily to re-establish defensive communication and cohesion he needs to start Jefferson.

But to answer the question who sits if Rasheed starts, perhaps Amile.

[Rich]

When Boozer injured his foot in 2001 near the end of the season, now THAT was panic. I recall that season turned out OK.

In K I trust!

[SoCalDukeFan]

I appreciate Al's article and understand that he knows much more about Duke basketball than I do, and that Coach K knows way way more about coaching Duke basketball that I do.

My "concern" is the past Duke teams that won championships had non-frosh who were excellent and important players on the team. Teams where the best and most important players underperformed in my opinion. 2014 is the prime example, Austin Rivers year is another.

Coach K is the best. He is not inflexible. I know he wants to win. If anyone can figure out what to change, its him. Team faces a very tough stretch,
hopefully the will emerge from it strong.

SoCal

[Kedsy]

My "concern" is the past Duke teams that won championships had non-frosh who were excellent and important players on the team. Teams where the best and most important players underperformed in my opinion. 2014 is the prime example, Austin Rivers year is another.

This is a commonly expressed concern. My issue with it is sevenfold:

(1) This year's team has "non-frosh who are excellent and important players on the team." Quinn Cook has a good chance to make one of the All-ACC teams. Amile Jefferson is our best rebounder, best communicator, and possibly best defensive player. Rasheed Sulaimon is one of the most talented sixth men in the ACC.

While we're at it, the 2012 and 2014 teams also had non-frosh who were excellent and important players on the team. In 2012, both Seth Curry and Mason Plumlee made 3rd-team All-ACC. Ryan Kelly averaged 12 and 5 in only 26 mpg. Miles Plumlee was one of the top offensive rebounders in the country (top in the ACC) and was a first-round NBA draft pick that same year. In 2014, Rodney Hood was 2nd-team All ACC and Quinn Cook scored nearly 12 ppg with 4.4 apg and the 7th best a/to ratio in the ACC. So I'm not even sure those years are good examples for you.

(2) We've had plenty of great freshmen at Duke. But if you mean years in which a freshman was our best player, then 2012 and 2014 aren't "prime examples," they're the only examples in the Coach K era (well, I guess 1983 too, but that was too long ago to count, right?). So we have just two data points, which is in no way a sample big enough to draw any legitimate conclusions. Two points simply aren't enough to constitute a trend.

(3) Other than the fact that a freshman is our best player, and the possibility that this year's team isn't great on defense, there aren't many if any meaningful similarities between this year's team and the 2012 or 2014 teams. Different styles of play, different type of personnel, different personalities. When I look at this year's team, pretty much nothing about it reminds me of either of those other two teams.

(4) When people make these sorts of comparisons, they inevitably omit the fact that plenty of Duke teams that had the quality they're talking about (in this case, "non-frosh who were excellent and important players on the team") failed to win championships, too. If a particular quality is present both in successful and unsuccessful teams, why does that make it so essential for future teams?

(5) When you compare current teams to "past Duke teams that won championships," you once again run into unsustainably small sample sizes. We've only won four championships, and two of the four were essentially the same team. And those three/four teams didn't have all that much in common, other than having good players.

(6) Another problem with making comparisons to past championship teams is the implication that the only measure of a successful season is a national championship. I vehemently disagree with this for many reasons, not least of which is, if you use that as the measure of success, then the most successful active coach in the NCAA (possibly the most successful coach in NCAA history), has a "success rate" of less than 12%.

(7) Why does everyone think that future successful teams have to resemble past successful teams? Sure, you can always find similarities, because successful teams have good players and play well, both as individuals and as a team. But the 2010 Duke team didn't resemble any past Duke national champions, did it? Not even close. The team still managed to win, though. The 2001 Duke team didn't really resemble any past Duke national champions, either. The 1992 Duke team did, of course, because it was basically the exact same team as the 1991 Duke team, so I don't think that's a meaningful distinction when attempting to predict future champions.

Sure, it's fun to find similarities and wonder if having (or lacking) a certain quality will help us predict the future of a particular squad. I do it all the time. But I don't think it makes sense to write off a team because it doesn't resemble past editions. Obviously we have no idea what the future holds for this year's Duke team, but one thing of which I'm pretty sure is it isn't constrained by the models of the past.

[CDu]

If Rasheed starts, who sits? Amile, Quinn, Tyus, Justise because I don't see Jahlil as the 6th man and we need Amile in the lineup because of his defense(communication). Coach K might start Rasheed or Matt, but though I don't want to see Amile and Matt paired together for long stretches because neither have shown they can consistently score from the perimeter. GoDuke!

It would almost have to be one of the two PGs or Jefferson. My inclination would be Tyus Jones, who has been playing the most poorly of the starters lately. In theory, Coach K could go back to the "sit Jefferson and go with 3.5 guards" approach (replacing Matt Jones with Sulaimon), but I don't think that is a good idea against Harrell. Winslow is a tough customer, but Harrell is just a manchild.

As for Winslow, I mostly agree with the sentiment in this thread that he's been a gamer emotionally. One knock is that he's come very close a couple of times to some unsportsmanlike "taunting" technicals. He blocked a fast-break layup in the Miami game and stood over the opponent staring down at him. And in one of the earlier games (I can't remember which, perhaps State) he scored and started to stare down the defender (up in his face) before a teammate grabbed him away. Thankfully the refs either didn't see it or chose to allow him one discretionary incident and didn't T him up.

I like the attitude, but I don't like the outward display of disrespect and I certainly don't want the potential technicals.

[SoCalDukeFan]

This is a commonly expressed concern. My issue with it is sevenfold:

(1) This year's team has "non-frosh who are excellent and important players on the team." Quinn Cook has a good chance to make one of the All-ACC teams. Amile Jefferson is our best rebounder, best communicator, and possibly best defensive player. Rasheed Sulaimon is one of the most talented sixth men in the ACC.

While we're at it, the 2012 and 2014 teams also had non-frosh who were excellent and important players on the team. In 2012, both Seth Curry and Mason Plumlee made 3rd-team All-ACC. Ryan Kelly averaged 12 and 5 in only 26 mpg. Miles Plumlee was one of the top offensive rebounders in the country (top in the ACC) and was a first-round NBA draft pick that same year. In 2014, Rodney Hood was 2nd-team All ACC and Quinn Cook scored nearly 12 ppg with 4.4 apg and the 7th best a/to ratio in the ACC. So I'm not even sure those years are good examples for you.

(2) We've had plenty of great freshmen at Duke. But if you mean years in which a freshman was our best player, then 2012 and 2014 aren't "prime examples," they're the only examples in the Coach K era (well, I guess 1983 too, but that was too long ago to count, right?). So we have just two data points, which is in no way a sample big enough to draw any legitimate conclusions. Two points simply aren't enough to constitute a trend.

(3) Other than the fact that a freshman is our best player, and the possibility that this year's team isn't great on defense, there aren't many if any meaningful similarities between this year's team and the 2012 or 2014 teams. Different styles of play, different type of personnel, different personalities. When I look at this year's team, pretty much nothing about it reminds me of either of those other two teams.

(4) When people make these sorts of comparisons, they inevitably omit the fact that plenty of Duke teams that had the quality they're talking about (in this case, "non-frosh who were excellent and important players on the team") failed to win championships, too. If a particular quality is present both in successful and unsuccessful teams, why does that make it so essential for future teams?

(5) When you compare current teams to "past Duke teams that won championships," you once again run into unsustainably small sample sizes. We've only won four championships, and two of the four were essentially the same team. And those three/four teams didn't have all that much in common, other than having good players.

(6) Another problem with making comparisons to past championship teams is the implication that the only measure of a successful season is a national championship. I vehemently disagree with this for many reasons, not least of which is, if you use that as the measure of success, then the most successful active coach in the NCAA (possibly the most successful coach in NCAA history), has a "success rate" of less than 12%.

(7) Why does everyone think that future successful teams have to resemble past successful teams? Sure, you can always find similarities, because successful teams have good players and play well, both as individuals and as a team. But the 2010 Duke team didn't resemble any past Duke national champions, did it? Not even close. The team still managed to win, though. The 2001 Duke team didn't really resemble any past Duke national champions, either. The 1992 Duke team did, of course, because it was basically the exact same team as the 1991 Duke team, so I don't think that's a meaningful distinction when attempting to predict future champions.

Sure, it's fun to find similarities and wonder if having (or lacking) a certain quality will help us predict the future of a particular squad. I do it all the time. But I don't think it makes sense to write off a team because it doesn't resemble past editions. Obviously we have no idea what the future holds for this year's Duke team, but one thing of which I'm pretty sure is it isn't constrained by the models of the past.

1) I will concede that in 2012 that Austin Rivers was not head and shoulders some others, but certainly Parker was last year and the frosh are this year.

2) In terms of talent Grant Hill might have been the best Duke ever had. His freshmen year the team included Laettner and Hurley for example. Past Duke teams were more "veteran" because there was less one and dones and other early entry.

3) Agreed.

4) Not saying that the formula for success is veteran players, only that this formula has not worked in the past.

5) My main concern is not that we will lose to a more talented team. My concern is that as in 2012 and 2014 we will woefully underperform and lose to a much less talented team.

6) My measure is really of failure, a la losing to Mercer and Lehigh in the first round.

7) Agree that K has won with different styles of play and players. This year's team is different. Three quality frosh starters, great offensive post player, etc. etc.

If you want to complain about small sample sizes, then complain to Al Featherstone, because that is just what is doing. Also, what you are forced to do. There are not that many years where Duke teams woefully underperformed in the Tournament. I know there were others, but 2012 and especially 2014 really bother me.

So I remain concerned and I think with justifiable reason. I may in panic or doom mode. There is no one I would rather see try to figure out how to get the most out this team than Coach K.

SoCal

[sagegrouse]

As for Winslow, I mostly agree with the sentiment in this thread that he's been a gamer emotionally. One knock is that he's come very close a couple of times to some unsportsmanlike "taunting" technicals. He blocked a fast-break layup in the Miami game and stood over the opponent staring down at him. And in one of the earlier games (I can't remember which, perhaps State) he scored and started to stare down the defender (up in his face) before a teammate grabbed him away. Thankfully the refs either didn't see it or chose to allow him one discretionary incident and didn't T him up.


Let me summarize: Justise can be scary good and also scary scary.

Or perhaps the old adage comes true this year: "The wheels of Justise turn slowly but grind exceedingly fine." Justise will be a powerful force come March.

[DevilYouthCoach]

Let me summarize: Justise can be scary good and also scary scary.

Or perhaps the old adage comes true this year: "The wheels of Justise turn slowly but grind exceedingly fine." Justise will be a powerful force come March.



Personally, I think this team is going to find its way and be very good, although perhaps not great. The players are excellent -- other things are missing at the moment, but they can be found. I don't read all the threads, but I think that the loss of Seme to transfer might have upset our balance. We have not been the same team since he left, and I can't help but think that that has been a part of our problem. Even as a number 8/9 sub, he still represented a solid big man to help out on rebounding and defense. Without Seme, I suspect that Jah's job is a good bit harder, and that he feels even more need to not foul. Hence, poor defense underneath. I could go on with this way of thinking, but I will just put this idea out there as a suggestion.

[blUDAYvil]

Or perhaps the old adage comes true this year: "The wheels of Justise turn slowly but grind exceedingly fine." Justise will be a powerful force come March.

"The arc of the moral universe is long, but it bends towards Justise." - MLK. This quote is auspicious and I take it to mean Justise is going to drain many long arcing shots tomorrow.

[SoCalDukeFan]

1) I

So I remain concerned and I think with justifiable reason. I may in panic or doom mode. There is no one I would rather see try to figure out how to get the most out this team than Coach K.

SoCal

I am not in panic or doom mode.

SoCal

[brevity]

Ooops! I never look up Hemingway, but now I remember that the hero was not Nick (as in Nick Adams) but Frederick Henry.


I thought it was Patrick Davidson.

No, but that's a common mistake. Hemingway actually wrote about Patrick Davidson in a different book, The Old Man and the Sea. He was the Sea.

[NancyCarol]

Could the desire to get K his 1,000th win be an issue for the players? I'm new, so if this has been discussed already, please dong flog me.

[jv001]

Could the desire to get K his 1,000th win be an issue for the players? I'm new, so if this has been discussed already, please dong flog me.

You may want to rephrase that. :cool: And no, I don't think that has one thing to do with it. GoDuke!

[weezie]

Could the desire to get K his 1,000th win be an issue for the players? I'm new, so if this has been discussed already, please dong flog me.

Welcome Nancy. We don't flog anyone here. Tease, needle, pun perhaps but all in all it's an amicable bunch of loons.

But I also think the 1k issue has receded a bit.

[El_Diablo]

Could the desire to get K his 1,000th win be an issue for the players? I'm new, so if this has been discussed already, please dong flog me.

Phrasing!!! :o

Great, great article by Al. One more nit to pick, however: Daniel Ewing was a junior on the 2004 Final Four team. Luol Deng was a freshman then, so I assume he meant Luol.