MBB: Duke at Louisville (1/17/15 12 pm ESPN) Pre-Game & In-Game Thread

[Bob Green]

Duke (#4) heads to Louisville (#6) for a High Noon showdown on Saturday. Discuss the game here.

[weezie]

Nice place you have here Mr. Green.

Duke does well when they're hated by unwashed masses. L'ville fits the bill. I get a sense that they def want to be our rivals.

[jipops]

Louisville is 0-2 vs RPI top 25. They are not a particularly good shooting team so I hope we don't try to extend our defense out on ball handlers like Rozier and Jones. If we do we may get demolished. Let them chuck it from deep or try to feed it in to Harrell.

Offensively this could be interesting. Louisville will not need to double on Okafor so hopefully he can operate and get Harrell into foul trouble. They may not be as tough on D without him. It's very important for Jah to be physical in this one.

[SoCalDukeFan]

Playing Miami on Tuesday after NC State on Sunday did not give give the staff much time to make adjustments. Much longer break before this game.

The NC State coach and the Miami coach knew just what they needed to do to beat Duke. And they did it. Pitano certainly knows the game plan.

Duke is very talented. Hopefully a confident team shows up ready to play.

SoCal

[CDu]

Louisville is 0-2 vs RPI top 25. They are not a particularly good shooting team so I hope we don't try to extend our defense out on ball handlers like Rozier and Jones. If we do we may get demolished. Let them chuck it from deep or try to feed it in to Harrell.

Agreed. Louisville is yet another team with the components to shred our defense. Hopefully we change our approach, or hopefully they struggle.


Offensively this could be interesting. Louisville will not need to double on Okafor so hopefully he can operate and get Harrell into foul trouble. They may not be as tough on D without him. It's very important for Jah to be physical in this one.

I would be fairly surprised if Harrell guards Okafor very often. For one thing, Louisville plays a fair amount of zone. For another, Harrell plays PF and Louisville rotates a few different big guys (Onuaku and Matthiang most notably) at C. Harrell does most of his defensive damage in help defense, and I'd expect him to guard Jefferson when they go man-to-man.

[jv001]

Agreed. Louisville is yet another team with the components to shred our defense. Hopefully we change our approach, or hopefully they struggle.



I would be fairly surprised if Harrell guards Okafor very often. For one thing, Louisville plays a fair amount of zone. For another, Harrell plays PF and Louisville rotates a few different big guys (Onuaku and Matthiang most notably) at C. Harrell does most of his defensive damage in help defense, and I'd expect him to guard Jefferson when they go man-to-man.

If Louisville doubles with Harrell being the help defender, that's a good time for Amile to get some points and Jahlil to get some assists. GoDuke!

[NSDukeFan]

Agreed. Louisville is yet another team with the components to shred our defense. Hopefully we change our approach, or hopefully they struggle.



I would be fairly surprised if Harrell guards Okafor very often. For one thing, Louisville plays a fair amount of zone. For another, Harrell plays PF and Louisville rotates a few different big guys (Onuaku and Matthiang most notably) at C. Harrell does most of his defensive damage in help defense, and I'd expect him to guard Jefferson when they go man-to-man.

I don't know if Louisville is that bad a matchup with their O vs Duke's D. I expect their guards will get penetration as most quick guards do. They don't have the reputation as good perimeter shooters though, which has been a major problem the last few games. Duke has traditionally allowed quick guards to get by the perimeter defenders, but has not allowed good 3 point shooting. In the last 3 games, the team has allowed both, part of the reason for the poor defensive performance. If Duke can tighten up at the 3 point line, communicate a bit better in rotations and challenge a bit better at the rim, the team can defend well even if the opponent's guards get by our perimeter defenders (hopefully not that easily.)

[NSDukeFan]

I do expect that Louisville's D will be one of the tougher match ups for Duke's offense, because of their quick, aggressive guards putting pressure on the perimeter.

[roywhite]

Reminds me of one of the final scenes from Apollo 13 (http://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Apollo_13_(film)) as the damaged space vehicle prepares for re-entry and the technical experts details the problems:

Henry Hurt: We've got the parachute situation, the heat shield, angle of the trajectory and the typhoon. There's just so many variables, I'm at a loss --
Chris Kraft: I know what the problems are, Henry. This could be the worst disaster NASA's ever experienced.
Gene Kranz: With all due respect, sir, I believe this is gonna be our finest hour.

I like this Duke team's chances in this situation with Mike Krzyzewski as the coach.

[CDu]

I don't know if Louisville is that bad a matchup with their O vs Duke's D. I expect their guards will get penetration as most quick guards do. They don't have the reputation as good perimeter shooters though, which has been a major problem the last few games. Duke has traditionally allowed quick guards to get by the perimeter defenders, but has not allowed good 3 point shooting. In the last 3 games, the team has allowed both, part of the reason for the poor defensive performance. If Duke can tighten up at the 3 point line, communicate a bit better in rotations and challenge a bit better at the rim, the team can defend well even if the opponent's guards get by our perimeter defenders (hopefully not that easily.)

I would agree with some hesitation. Rozier and Jones are certainly insonsistent from 3pt range (largely a function of shot selection) but both are more than capable of getting hot and raining in 3s. And while Blackshear hasn't shot it well, he is one of the better shooters out there. Each of thise guys shot over 37% from 3 last year (Blackshear pushed 40%). So if anything I would consider their low percentages this year deceiving as they may be due for some regression to the mean.

[CDu]

I do expect that Louisville's D will be one of the tougher match ups for Duke's offense, because of their quick, aggressive guards putting pressure on the perimeter.

This is absolutely correct. The Cardinals have tremendous athletes, with some great length and athleticism inside. They are well-coached and can play stifling defense. They are very disruptive. And if Harrell gets going, they can be a real handful.

[moonpie23]

i just want to see the come out hungry and aggressive.. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4r7wHMg5Yjg)...

[dukelifer]

Jones and Justise have to regain their mojos. If they do - Duke has a chance.

[jv001]

Reminds me of one of the final scenes from Apollo 13 (http://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Apollo_13_(film)) as the damaged space vehicle prepares for re-entry and the technical experts details the problems:

Henry Hurt: We've got the parachute situation, the heat shield, angle of the trajectory and the typhoon. There's just so many variables, I'm at a loss --
Chris Kraft: I know what the problems are, Henry. This could be the worst disaster NASA's ever experienced.
Gene Kranz: With all due respect, sir, I believe this is gonna be our finest hour.

I like this Duke team's chances in this situation with Mike Krzyzewski as the coach.

Great post, I feel better already. This post needs to be in the Optimist Thread, roywhite. GoDuke!

[jacone21]

Reminds me of one of the final scenes from Apollo 13 (http://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Apollo_13_(film)) as the damaged space vehicle prepares for re-entry and the technical experts details the problems:

Henry Hurt: We've got the parachute situation, the heat shield, angle of the trajectory and the typhoon. There's just so many variables, I'm at a loss --
Chris Kraft: I know what the problems are, Henry. This could be the worst disaster NASA's ever experienced.
Gene Kranz: With all due respect, sir, I believe this is gonna be our finest hour.

I like this Duke team's chances in this situation with Mike Krzyzewski as the coach.

If Coach K comes out wearing a vest, Louisville is in serious trouble!

[kAzE]

i know why we lost the last 2 games...

I've been super busy over the last week and didn't catch either game live, was planning to watch replays on espn3.com... First 2 games I've missed this year.

Dont worry, I'm definitely watching the Louisville game. No freakin way we drop 3 straight. Go Duke!!

[jv001]

Our friend Al Featherston has a very good article on DBR home page regarding changes Coach K has made when things looked bleak for the Blue Devils. The changes pretty much deal with the rotation. Here are a few Al discussed:
1997- Freshman Carrawell replaced Greg Newton(not our Newton-atleast I don't think it was).
2001- Freshman Chris Duhon replaced Nate James who became a great 6th man.
2005- Coach K started Patrick Davidson against Chris Paul and Wake for one game. Duke came out really fired up and won. My Wake friends still insist that Coach K resorted to thug basketball.
2009- Freshman Elliot Williams replaced Greg Paulus.
2010- Coach K inserted Zoubs into the starting lineup in Feb and went from fast break BB to half court BB. Love how this one turned out.

Will Coach K make some kind of personnel change or will he make a change in our scheme? Or he could do nothing and just try to install confidence in the guys. I can't wait to find out. GoDuke!

[ScreechTDX1847]

Based on what I have seen in the last week I think things are going to continue to get worse before they get better. Duke loses by ~10. I think we start to improve on the other side of @UVA but still get a slim win vs. Pitt.

[MCFinARL]

Based on what I have seen in the last week I think things are going to continue to get worse before they get better. Duke loses by ~10. I think we start to improve on the other side of @UVA but still get a slim win vs. Pitt.

Okay, that's a possibility, but what is your thinking? Just a gut feeling?

[ScreechTDX1847]

Okay, that's a possibility, but what is your thinking? Just a gut feeling?

I don't think the team has hit the bottom yet and the freshman are going to have to keep getting punched in the mouth to create some grit and toughness. The next 5 contests aren't a platform to learn while you win - there are still some hard lessons. I don't see Okafor's recent issues dealing with double teams and lack of patience in the post getting better against UL.

I think this team needs to get angry and stop playing so passively - getting stomped a few times by will certainly get that going. Like K said, you have to go through this kind of adversity. If we had VT, Clemson, GT coming up I would be more optimistic but we have to be playing at a high level to get Ws out of this next run and it's hard to see it based on what I have seen. Barring a COMPLETE 180 - it's hard to envision.

[ScreechTDX1847]

I don't think the team has hit the bottom yet and the freshman are going to have to keep getting punched in the mouth to create some grit and toughness. The next 5 contests aren't a platform to learn while you win - there are still some hard lessons. I don't see Okafor's recent issues dealing with double teams and lack of patience in the post getting better against UL.

I think this team needs to get angry and stop playing so passively - getting stomped a few times by will certainly get that going. Like K said, you have to go through this kind of adversity. If we had VT, Clemson, GT coming up I would be more optimistic but we have to be playing at a high level to get Ws out of this next run and it's hard to see it based on what I have seen. Barring a COMPLETE 180 - it's hard to envision.

Then again, I am more of the pessimistic type after we take some bad losses and as Al Featherston said, K has a history of turning this stuff around - but I also don't recall in my lifetime when K has started Freshman like this. The lessons are longer and harder.

[Bob Green]

Based on what I have seen in the last week I think things are going to continue to get worse before they get better. Duke loses by ~10.

The last time Duke lost three games in a row was March 2007. That was almost eight years ago. The team had two four game losing streaks during the 2006-07 season.

I'm not saying your prediction is wrong, I'm just saying Coach K normally figures things out expeditiously. We will see on Saturday.

[freshmanjs]

The last time Duke lost three games in a row was March 2007. That was almost eight years ago. The team had two four game losing streaks during the 2006-07 season.

I'm not saying your prediction is wrong, I'm just saying Coach K normally figures things out expeditiously. We will see on Saturday.

yes but how many times has the 3rd game after 2 losses (or even 1 loss) been on the road against a top 10 team?

[kAzE]

I don't think the team has hit the bottom yet and the freshman are going to have to keep getting punched in the mouth to create some grit and toughness. The next 5 contests aren't a platform to learn while you win - there are still some hard lessons. I don't see Okafor's recent issues dealing with double teams and lack of patience in the post getting better against UL.

I think this team needs to get angry and stop playing so passively - getting stomped a few times by will certainly get that going. Like K said, you have to go through this kind of adversity. If we had VT, Clemson, GT coming up I would be more optimistic but we have to be playing at a high level to get Ws out of this next run and it's hard to see it based on what I have seen. Barring a COMPLETE 180 - it's hard to envision.

If getting blown out by Miami in Cameron Indoor isn't rock bottom, I don't know what is. Even if we lose by 5-10 to Louisville at their place, it will be an improvement over the last game. This team is better than that.

[ScreechTDX1847]

If getting blown out by Miami in Cameron Indoor isn't rock bottom, I don't know what is. Even if we lose by 5-10 to Louisville at their place, it will be an improvement over the last game. This team is better than that.

Rock bottom is dropping 4 of the next 5. I can't see that happening but things better change.

[CDu]

yes but how many times has the 3rd game after 2 losses (or even 1 loss) been on the road against a top 10 team?

This is an excellent point/question. The answer (at least over the time frame referenced) none. Two of the 3rd games were to start the next season (against bottom-tier D-1 schools). One was at St John's (who was 12-14 at the time) and the other was (coincidentally enough) at home vs St John's (who was 10-16 at the time).

This will be, by a wide margin, the most difficult opponent we've faced following a 2-game skid since the 2007 season. That's not to say we won't continue the trend (we are certainly capable of beating Louisville), but just to say that the previous four "3rd games" are not really relevant to this situation.

[jipops]

I would be fairly surprised if Harrell guards Okafor very often. For one thing, Louisville plays a fair amount of zone. For another, Harrell plays PF and Louisville rotates a few different big guys (Onuaku and Matthiang most notably) at C. Harrell does most of his defensive damage in help defense, and I'd expect him to guard Jefferson when they go man-to-man.

I wasn't actually alluding to Okafor and Harrell being the actual matchup. Just that I hope we can somehow get him in foul trouble as a result of having the ball in Jah's hands, whether than being from help D or Jah dishing it off to Amile.

I know many won't share my sentiment, because a 3-game losing streak would be pretty terrible to stomach. But if we can at least somehow remain competitive in this game from tip to final buzzer, then I will feel some satisfaction that improvement is taking place. Another blowout loss would only rattle these guys' confidence even more.

[CDu]

I wasn't actually alluding to Okafor and Harrell being the actual matchup. Just that I hope we can somehow get him in foul trouble as a result of having the ball in Jah's hands, whether than being from help D or Jah dishing it off to Amile.

I know many won't share my sentiment, because a 3-game losing streak would be pretty terrible to stomach. But if we can at least somehow remain competitive in this game from tip to final buzzer, then I will feel some satisfaction that improvement is taking place. Another blowout loss would only rattle these guys' confidence even more.

I do share your sentiment. That in that I'll be happy with a loss, but at least a close loss (assuming it is showing progress defensively and not a 95-90 loss) would be a sign that things are pointing in the right direction.

There was a good chance we were going to lose this game prior to the last two games. Given the last two results, I think any reasonable person would say that the perceived chances just went up from where we perceived them to be a week ago.

I certainly hope we don't lose this game. But I think it is a distinct possibility and I don't think it should necessarily spell doom and gloom for the season. I'm also looking for at least signs of progress while hoping for a win.

[jv001]

I do share your sentiment. That in that I'll be happy with a loss, but at least a close loss (assuming it is showing progress defensively and not a 95-90 loss) would be a sign that things are pointing in the right direction.

There was a good chance we were going to lose this game prior to the last two games. Given the last two results, I think any reasonable person would say that the perceived chances just went up from where we perceived them to be a week ago.

I certainly hope we don't lose this game. But I think it is a distinct possibility and I don't think it should necessarily spell doom and gloom for the season. I'm also looking for at least signs of progress while hoping for a win.

What's Pomeroy's prediction for the game? GoDuke!

[left_hook_lacey]

Reminds me of one of the final scenes from Apollo 13 (http://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Apollo_13_(film)) as the damaged space vehicle prepares for re-entry and the technical experts details the problems:

Henry Hurt: We've got the parachute situation, the heat shield, angle of the trajectory and the typhoon. There's just so many variables, I'm at a loss --
Chris Kraft: I know what the problems are, Henry. This could be the worst disaster NASA's ever experienced.
Gene Kranz: With all due respect, sir, I believe this is gonna be our finest hour.

I like this Duke team's chances in this situation with Mike Krzyzewski as the coach.


Call me crazy, but I'm glad that top 5 Louisville is our next game. I don’t' like all the "oh woe is me, we have to play Louisville while we're struggling."

We have 9 McDonald's AA players. A hall of fame coach chasing an unprecedented 1,000 wins. Let's act like it.

Some have said upstream that this is a scary game, or that we need an easy game to get our confidence back. That ship has sailed. We lost at State. Fine. We had Miami at home to get our bounce back and we blew it. Time to put on the big boy undies and play some ball.

Nothing will get our swagger back quicker than going into Louisville and stomping a mud hole in them. Let's let the players play, let coach K coach, and sit back and enjoy the ride. Going into Louisville in this situation is a privilege. We get to show the country that we are still the team to beat in the ACC, on the biggest stage possible.

[Saratoga2]

A lot was said in the post Miami game thread. My take going forward and after reading the many good posts on the previous game is that our offense is not that worrisome but our defense has a long way to go. In Particular:

Offense:
1. We have argueably the best offensive center in college basketball. Other coaches show him respect by doubling him on every possession to keep his scoring down and to avoid getting their own bigs into foul trouble. Naturally that has reduced Jahlil's scoring but he still is going for a mid teens night, plus he passes well and rebounds well.
2. We have a senior guard in Quinn who is having his best year. He is shooting well and picks his spots to score efficiently. Great from the line.
3. Amile is showing some ability to score around the basket in a meaningful way. With the double teams on Jahlil, he is getting more opportunities, plus he is a verry good offensive rebounder.
4. With three solid offensive players, I believe we have a terrific PG in Tyus. He is a very good ball handler who sees the floor and can get guys involved. I think he has very good form on his outside shot and is excellent from the line plus he can penetrate given a slight opportunity. He needs to be encouraged to shoot more and penetrate more.
5. With Justise, we have an NBA class athlete who can handle the ball and finish inside. He does have an akward shot and isnt good from the charity strip. I don't believe improving his shot can be an in season project so we have to accept a lower efficiency there. He will have some good days as we have seen.
6. With Rasheed with have a player with a lot of ability. His shot form looks good to me and he runs the floor very well. I think his offensive issues are with turnovers perhaps from trying to force his offense. Driving into double teams, taking tough shots around the rim and not finishing. Interestingly he doesn't get many calls when driving.
7, Matt seems to have unconventional shooting form and can get way off at times. He also hasn't been too successful driving to the basket. He will get minutes due to his defensive prowess but any offensive contribution is like frosting on the cake.
8. Don't think either MP3 or Grayson will contribute much to the offense this year.

Even with the defensive strategy everyone recently has thrown against us, we still are capable of getting enough points to beat most teams provided our defense improves.

Defense:
So much was said about defense in the post Miami game tread it is not worth rehashing it here. My take from the reading was that better communication is needed among the players. That is especially true inside and under the basket where we seem to give up com[pletely uncontested dunks. Possibly we could pull our defense in a little and press less and avoid those fouls 30 feet and more from our rim or with a few seconds on the shot clock. Also valueing the ball and avoiding lazy passing and live ball turnovers wouldo cut down on the run outs.

Unless we can improve our defense, we are likely to struggle with numerous teams in the ACC. I am hoping for the best.

[AIRFORCEDUKIE]

Call me crazy, but I'm glad that top 5 Louisville is our next game. I don’t' like all the "oh woe is me, we have to play Louisville while we're struggling."

We have 9 McDonald's AA players. A hall of fame coach chasing an unprecedented 1,000 wins. Let's act like it.

Some have said upstream that this is a scary game, or that we need an easy game to get our confidence back. That ship has sailed. We lost at State. Fine. We had Miami at home to get our bounce back and we blew it. Time to put on the big boy undies and play some ball.

Nothing will get our swagger back quicker than going into Louisville and stomping a mud hole in them. Let's let the players play, let coach K coach, and sit back and enjoy the ride. Going into Louisville in this situation is a privilege. We get to show the country that we are still the team to beat in the ACC, on the biggest stage possible.

YEAHHH!!!! I feel like I should be charging at some opposing army in a distant field somewhere after reading this. "They may take our lives, but they will never take our FANDOM"!!!!!:cool:

[vrob90]

I wish I felt the optimism some of you folks have expressed. Given the two previous losses and the dimensions of the beatdown administered by Miami I'm not sure they will be able to play with Louisville. The defensive plan needs fundamental changes, it seems to me, not tweaks. I hope I'm wrong. Anyway, we're about to find out.

[mgtr]

A lot of very good points made in this thread. I don't know how the Louisville game will come out, but I think it will be a turning point. I would expect to see a different starting lineup, and our players play very hard or sit for a period. I think that the key is that our coach did not get 997 wins by accident -- he knows what he is doing. Win or lose, lessons will be learned.

[gurufrisbee]

Louisville is TERRIBLE offensively. Jones, Rozier, Blackshear, and Harrell are the only guys who can score at all and NONE of them shoot well from outside. We need to start big and stay big. No line ups with Justise at the 4. If LVille can't score off the offensive rebounds it boosts our chances a lot. And someone HAS to get back on defense. It's a junior high level fundamental, but one we've done ridiculously bad at. If they don't get easy break out points and easy put backs, they'll struggle to top 50 for the game.

On offense our guards need to drive with authority. We get too passive passing it around the perimeter waiting to throw an entry pass to Okafor who then gets doubled. If he gets doubled, he's got to find Amile or MP3 under the hoop or a perimeter guy open on the three point line. If he doesn't get doubled, well...:D

[CDu]

Louisville is TERRIBLE offensively. Jones, Rozier, Blackshear, and Harrell are the only guys who can score at all and NONE of them shoot well from outside. We need to start big and stay big. No line ups with Justise at the 4. If LVille can't score off the offensive rebounds it boosts our chances a lot. And someone HAS to get back on defense. It's a junior high level fundamental, but one we've done ridiculously bad at. If they don't get easy break out points and easy put backs, they'll struggle to top 50 for the game.

On offense our guards need to drive with authority. We get too passive passing it around the perimeter waiting to throw an entry pass to Okafor who then gets doubled. If he gets doubled, he's got to find Amile or MP3 under the hoop or a perimeter guy open on the three point line. If he doesn't get doubled, well...:D

I mentioned this up thread, but I think it's important to note that Blackshear, Rozier, and Jones are all very capable of shooting at a high percentage. Rozier and Jones each shot 37+% from 3pt range last year, and Blackshear shot near 44% from 3 last year. Their percentages are all low so far this year, but I'd certainly not sleep on them as shooters.

It is absolutely true that Harrell can't shoot though. That guy is all athleticism/motor and minimal skill.

[CoSprings]

Louisville really is anemic on offense. They can't shoot straight. I've watched them 4 times this year and it was a painful experience to see so many open jumpers continue to clang off the rim. That said, if one of them gets hot and pulls a Lacey/Bootsy then the shooting becomes contagious and everyone starts hitting. That is my fear. Teams just seem to play their best ball of the season against us. See State. That's why were are going to have to start strong defensively and limit easy shots.

My fear continues to be that neither Quinn or Tyus have trouble keeping guards in front of them, and that Okafor continues to drift out of the paint on D, leaving a wide open driving lane. IF Duke is EVER to pack in their defense, it is this game. Protect the paint, protect the rim and dare Louisville to make jumpers.

We also have to limit turnovers and get back on D in transition. I love watching Louisville play defense, they are mean, tough, aggressive and intimidating. They can also make you play ugly, but that's what they want. They want a street fight. We have to limit turnovers, get back in transition and protect the paint. If we can, we should be able to outscore them.

Will be interesting to see the first 5 minutes to see if the frosh look like deer in headlights or if they've developed a chip on their shoulder from being utterly embarrassed by Miami.

[CoSprings]

On Offense, we MUSt be strong with the ball. Drive with determination, come and meet passes, and attack with strength and athleticism. That doesn't necessarily fit the strength of our personnel sans Winslow. Tyus and Cook should be able to handle the press, so long as they are strong with the ball.

Ok, that's enough from me...I'm already nervous. We are one loss away from a major tailspin that I wonder if we can get out of with such a young team. Such promise, such hope and now such strange dread. #SeasonOnTheBrink

[mr. synellinden]

As far as changes, we've had the same starting lineup for every game but the NCS game due to their guard lineup.

If there is a lineup change, the one that would surprise me the least is Matt Jones (or possibly Rasheed) starting in place of Tyus and Quinn being the primary ball handler. I also bet we are working on some high-low post stuff with Amile, Jahlil and Justise. I wouldn't be surprised if one of the tinkers on offense is getting Jahlil the ball in the high post where he will have 360 degree options to pass out of a potential double team. When he gets it low and the double team comes, he only has 180 degrees of passing lanes and teams are doing a good job of covering the options. Jahlil has shown he can put the ball on the deck once or twice and make a move to the basket - and I'd like to see us use him more on the high block to create more options on offense. I also suspect we might see a few more minutes of twin towers. And I think Grayson might get more of a look.

[gep]

Louisville really is anemic on offense. They can't shoot straight. I've watched them 4 times this year and it was a painful experience to see so many open jumpers continue to clang off the rim. That said, if one of them gets hot and pulls a Lacey/Bootsy then the shooting becomes contagious and everyone starts hitting. That is my fear. Teams just seem to play their best ball of the season against us. See State. That's why were are going to have to start strong defensively and limit easy shots.

Maybe this thought. NCState, Miami have constantly lost to Duke over the years, so when they get their chance, the play their best. But Louisville already beat Duke in the Elite 8 a couple of years ago, even if Duke beat them in that Atlantis tournament. And Louisville hasn't lost to Duke constantly over the years. So... maybe Louisville doesn't have that "out-of-their-mind" shooting game and their A++ game... it's probably Duke at this point that will have to have that NCState, Miami mindset.

[Troublemaker]

Based on what I have seen in the last week I think things are going to continue to get worse before they get better. Duke loses by ~10. I think we start to improve on the other side of @UVA but still get a slim win vs. Pitt.


I wish I felt the optimism some of you folks have expressed. Given the two previous losses and the dimensions of the beatdown administered by Miami I'm not sure they will be able to play with Louisville. The defensive plan needs fundamental changes, it seems to me, not tweaks. I hope I'm wrong. Anyway, we're about to find out.

Well, Duke has opened as only 3.5-pt underdogs. You guys should hop on that, create a "win-win" situation for yourself, and get paid for your convictions.

But be careful, my friends. If it were so easy to correctly predict another bad loss following two previous bad losses, we would all be rich. And the value of real estate in Las Vegas would dwarf Manhattan's.

[jv001]

Louisville really is anemic on offense. They can't shoot straight. I've watched them 4 times this year and it was a painful experience to see so many open jumpers continue to clang off the rim. That said, if one of them gets hot and pulls a Lacey/Bootsy then the shooting becomes contagious and everyone starts hitting. That is my fear. Teams just seem to play their best ball of the season against us. See State. That's why were are going to have to start strong defensively and limit easy shots.
My fear continues to be that neither Quinn or Tyus have trouble keeping guards in front of them, and that Okafor continues to drift out of the paint on D, leaving a wide open driving lane. IF Duke is EVER to pack in their defense, it is this game. Protect the paint, protect the rim and dare Louisville to make jumpers.

We also have to limit turnovers and get back on D in transition. I love watching Louisville play defense, they are mean, tough, aggressive and intimidating. They can also make you play ugly, but that's what they want. They want a street fight. We have to limit turnovers, get back in transition and protect the paint. If we can, we should be able to outscore them.

Will be interesting to see the first 5 minutes to see if the frosh look like deer in headlights or if they've developed a chip on their shoulder from being utterly embarrassed by Miami.

I commented on this earlier. I used to think that it was like you say, every team gives us their best shot. But I'm wondering if that's because of our poor defense. We let the opponent begin to get easy shots which they make. Then they get confident and think, we can beat Duke, it's not as hard as I thought it was going to be. I liked the Coach K teams that came out and made a statement early. More or less saying you are dog meat. I would like to see that with this Duke team. They have the talent, just use it. GoDuke!

[bluesin]

I mentioned this up thread, but I think it's important to note that Blackshear, Rozier, and Jones are all very capable of shooting at a high percentage. Rozier and Jones each shot 37+% from 3pt range last year, and Blackshear shot near 44% from 3 last year. Their percentages are all low so far this year, but I'd certainly not sleep on them as shooters.

It is absolutely true that Harrell can't shoot though. That guy is all athleticism/motor and minimal skill.

While I don't necessarily disagree with the point that you're making that they can get hot from outside, I don't think those numbers mean an awful lot. For one, I don't know where you got 44% but kenpom lists Blackshear as .395 for threes (please correct me if I'm wrong, that was just the most reliable place I could think to look). The other two are .001 and .007 over .370. In fact the difference between Blackshear and Jones's %'s can be accounted for with 2 made 3-pointers since they both apparently shot exactly 114 on the year. Blackshear is already at 100 3's for the current season, Jones is at 69 and Rozier has shot 75 (last year he shot 97). So all three are on pace to shoot more from three than they did previously. Actually, 2 years ago Blackshear shot 139 3-pointers and was only at .324 so in his career he's taken 353 and only makes them at 34% or so. I guess what I'm saying is the individual games show they can make them at a high rate occasionally but the numbers I'm seeing show they are at best an average group from 3. Statistically we have 6 guys right now shooting as good or better than their 3 best shooters from deep, and 2-3 of them are I think demonstrably better than their best shooter Blackshear.

All that being said - as well as we have defended the 3 in the last 2 games (simply in terms of shots made vs. us and not how well we physically defended) I wouldn't give them the opportunity to get hot for sure and I'd definitely treat them like a danger, but I'd be much happier if we kept Blackshear and Rozier from getting off too many easy 2's since they're both over 50% at that range. Jones oddly enough I'd be fine letting him shoot 2's based on the numbers since he's .366 from 2 and .33 from 3, just don't let him pass it with his 25.1 assist rate.

Also to another point I read but can't bother quoting - Louisville is not a terrible team offensively, they're a poor shooting team. You don't get the 7th most efficient offense by being bad at it. They just start their offense off of their defense by stealing the ball a lot and pressuring you into making mistakes or missing shots so they can convert at the other end. They also rebound misses a lot on their own end and don't turn it over a ton, so they maximize their chances at converting on offense in those respects.

[Kedsy]

You don't get the 7th most efficient by being bad at it.

When was Louiville's offense ranked 7th? Right now Pomeroy has their offense ranked 56th.

[subzero02]

When was Louiville's offense ranked 7th? Right now Pomeroy has their offense ranked 56th.

I think he confused our offensive efficiency ranking with Louisville's. Pomeroy has Duke ranked #7 right now in adjusted offense.

[bluesin]

When was Louiville's offense ranked 7th? Right now Pomeroy has their offense ranked 56th.

Ha, the universe where Blackshear shoots 44%?:o Or more likely the universe where I deleted part of that last post about Duke's offense but left in the wrong number when I was formatting instead of Louisville's, which is to say this universe.:p

They are absolutely not 7th, but my contention was that 56th was not terrible (top 16%), just not elite like Duke's (top 2%). I'd venture to say that State and Miami's were very comparable to Louisville's current ranking before they played us and got a boost from our abysmal defending (especially from three). That mistake is totally on my late night proofreading.

I think Louisville is offensively in a very similar place rankings wise to the last two clubs we played but they don't on the surface seem to have the weapons from deep that miami or state have (rodriguez, lacomte, lacey, turner all shoot better on paper it seems to me than any of louisville's 3-point threats). The number of steals should tell us something about how much to heart we took the miami game - 12 of our 15 turnovers were steals and is something I'm interested to see how we address. I doubt we'll be able to similarly address if our 3 point defense has improved.

[Oriole Way]

I'm hoping to see a lineup of:

Cook
Sulaimon
Winslow
Jefferson
Okafor

Tyus needs to regroup and come off the bench while he reasserts himself offensively (and also while he works on his defense).

Coach K usually makes a starting lineup change after a key loss, and I think benching Tyus is the best move at the moment.

[Duke3517]

I'm hoping to see a lineup of:

Cook
Sulaimon
Winslow
Jefferson
Okafor

Tyus needs to regroup and come off the bench while he reasserts himself offensively (and also while he works on his defense).

Coach K usually makes a starting lineup change after a key loss, and I think benching Tyus is the best move at the moment.

I would start Tyus because he is the point guard.

[uh_no]

I'm hoping to see a lineup of:

Cook
Sulaimon


I'm not sure a repeat of last years perimeter is going to take us where we want to go.

[Bob Green]

Tyus needs to regroup and come off the bench while he reasserts himself offensively (and also while he works on his defense)

I respectfully disagree. Coach K stated in his post game comments that the team is not confident right now. Removing a player with confidence issues from the starting line-up is playing with fire. Tyus Jones needs to work through his issues on the court. Rasheed Sulaimon has the experience to handle the 6th Man role.

[dukebballcamper90-91]

I like that lineup Oriole. I think that helps out on the defensive end.

[jv001]

I respectfully disagree. Coach K stated in his post game comments that the team is not confident right now. Removing a player with confidence issues from the starting line-up is playing with fire. Tyus Jones needs to work through his issues on the court. Rasheed Sulaimon has the experience to handle the 6th Man role.

I agree 100% with this. If Tyus is taken out of the starting lineup, it will hurt his confidence even more. In Featherstone's article yesterday, in 3 of the 5 rotation changes, each time a freshmen was inserted into the starting rotation. The Patrick Davidson start was for just one game and that was to get the teams attention and create some energy. In todays, article JD gives a good slant on Duke's problems and in it he mentions Tyus' poor defense(and poor shooting) and rightfully says Tyus needs to get back on track. I would also mention that Quinn's defense has been poor as well. I don't know if it's the players or the scheme. I think we will learn a lot today. This is probably Duke's most important game this season. The Blue Devils need a W for their confidence and for my sanity. :cool: GoDuke!

[Duke3517]

I like that lineup Oriole. I think that helps out on the defensive end.

Not really, Quinn Cook has always been a slight liability on the defensive end. Tyus, I just think needs to learn the defensive system. His technique is not bad at all.

[CDu]

While I don't necessarily disagree with the point that you're making that they can get hot from outside, I don't think those numbers mean an awful lot. For one, I don't know where you got 44% but kenpom lists Blackshear as .395 for threes (please correct me if I'm wrong, that was just the most reliable place I could think to look). The other two are .001 and .007 over .370. In fact the difference between Blackshear and Jones's %'s can be accounted for with 2 made 3-pointers since they both apparently shot exactly 114 on the year. Blackshear is already at 100 3's for the current season, Jones is at 69 and Rozier has shot 75 (last year he shot 97). So all three are on pace to shoot more from three than they did previously. Actually, 2 years ago Blackshear shot 139 3-pointers and was only at .324 so in his career he's taken 353 and only makes them at 34% or so. I guess what I'm saying is the individual games show they can make them at a high rate occasionally but the numbers I'm seeing show they are at best an average group from 3. Statistically we have 6 guys right now shooting as good or better than their 3 best shooters from deep, and 2-3 of them are I think demonstrably better than their best shooter Blackshear.

All that being said - as well as we have defended the 3 in the last 2 games (simply in terms of shots made vs. us and not how well we physically defended) I wouldn't give them the opportunity to get hot for sure and I'd definitely treat them like a danger, but I'd be much happier if we kept Blackshear and Rozier from getting off too many easy 2's since they're both over 50% at that range. Jones oddly enough I'd be fine letting him shoot 2's based on the numbers since he's .366 from 2 and .33 from 3, just don't let him pass it with his 25.1 assist rate.

Also to another point I read but can't bother quoting - Louisville is not a terrible team offensively, they're a poor shooting team. You don't get the 7th most efficient offense by being bad at it. They just start their offense off of their defense by stealing the ball a lot and pressuring you into making mistakes or missing shots so they can convert at the other end. They also rebound misses a lot on their own end and don't turn it over a ton, so they maximize their chances at converting on offense in those respects.

The 44% was a typo, just as your 7th was a typo.

My point was that last year those guys were quite solid, if not good, 3pt shooters. This year, they have certainly been below average shooters. So the question is whether last year was anomalous or is the start to this year anomalous? Impossible to say without seeing how it plays out. But it could very well be the case that their slow start is going to be followed by a hot finish to revert to more of a solid true mean. Or it could be that last year was flukey. We just don't know.

For what it is worth, I don't think looking at what Blackshear did 2+ years ago is all that relevant, as players do tend to develop over time.

[Steven43]

...changes Coach K has made when things looked bleak for the Blue Devils. The changes pretty much deal with the rotation.
2010- Coach K inserted Zoubs into the starting lineup in Feb and went from fast break BB to half court BB. Love how this one turned out.

Will Coach K make some kind of personnel change or will he make a change in our scheme?
This begs the question of why Coach K didn't make any significant changes when things looked bleak--as in nearly the entire year--on defense in 2013? For what was he waiting? No changes were made and you saw the results in our first round NCAA tournament game. Remember all that talk about all the changes that the program was going to undergo during the off-season? I haven't noticed a single change, have you?

[dukebballcamper90-91]

Not really, Quinn Cook has always been a slight liability on the defensive end. Tyus, I just think needs to learn the defensive system. His technique is not bad at all.

Sheed for Tyus for defensive purposes. Tyus sub for Cook.

[jv001]

This begs the question of why Coach K didn't make any significant changes when things looked bleak--as in nearly the entire year--on defense in 2013? For what was he waiting? No changes were made and you saw the results in our first round NCAA tournament game. Remember all that talk about all the changes that the program was going to undergo during the off-season? I haven't noticed a single change, have you?

You probably need to ask another poster who has more knowledge on the fine things concerning defense. I don't think we used the "Ice" method of defending the pick-n-role last season. But if memory serves me correctly, we played extended man to man pressure defense last year and it didn't work very well. GoDuke!

[Troublemaker]

The point spread tea leaves are looking good for Duke. Most of the offshore sites opened the line at 4 and it's been going down, first to 3.5, then to 3, and things are beginning to trend towards 2.5. I believe the sharp bettors are on Duke today.

[Troublemaker]

This begs the question of why Coach K didn't make any significant changes when things looked bleak--as in nearly the entire year--on defense in 2013? For what was he waiting? No changes were made and you saw the results in our first round NCAA tournament game. Remember all that talk about all the changes that the program was going to undergo during the off-season? I haven't noticed a single change, have you?

Actually, last season Coach K tinkered with the lineups constantly. And this season, Duke is defending the ball screen differently. And it had been working extremely well until recently. Hopefully, we can recover that previous level of play, starting today.

[freshmanjs]

This begs the question of why Coach K didn't make any significant changes when things looked bleak--as in nearly the entire year--on defense in 2013? For what was he waiting? No changes were made and you saw the results in our first round NCAA tournament game. Remember all that talk about all the changes that the program was going to undergo during the off-season? I haven't noticed a single change, have you?

do you not recall the insertion of hairston and thornton into the starting lineup to shore up the defense?

[left_hook_lacey]

Let's gooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo! This is our day!!!! Let's take what is ours! We will not let these ACC new comers defeat us today! Let's take care of business and get all things right in the world again!!!

I'm so freakin' jacked for this game!

[Wheat/"/"/"]

Play containment, not gambling defense.....set strong screens not the passive ones we've been seeing from this Duke team....look to feed Okafor at some point every possession beyond transition...hope Cook and Sulaimon have a good shooting day and Duke can win this one.

Let Louisville guards go off and it's gonna be a long day.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Let's gooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo! This is our day!!!! Let's take what is ours! We will not let these ACC new comers defeat us today! Let's take care of business and get all things right in the world again!!!

I'm so freakin' jacked for this game!

Let's whoop these interlopers.

Go Duke!

[weezie]

Misery, vitale and Doris uuuugh

[meloveduke]

Chat going to be open for this game?

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

DBR Chat for those of us at work?

[wgl1228]

Offense stil struggling but D has been fine.

[_Gary]

Winslow, in particular, looks like he's lost all confidence. He's just in a serious funk right now.

[_Gary]

Tyus with an ankle sprain. Bad stuff continuing.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Come on DBR Chat... trying to follow along on ESPN Gamecast is like listening to a blind man tell me what's happening through pantomime

[arnie]

Winslow, in particular, looks like he's lost all confidence. He's just in a serious funk right now.

Yep. Probably need to sit him a while. Matt carrying us.

[jwillfan]

No one has mentioned zone. Zone!

[grossbus]

Matt. New haircut making a difference?

Please keep it going!

[CDu]

Holy schnikeys, we just played over 5 minutes of 2-3 zone defense.

[_Gary]

Another block on a MJones shot leads to another transition bucket. It defies the law of averages to see this happening game after game. Man.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Tyus with an ankle sprain. Bad stuff continuing.

Best I can tell (thanks Gamecast) we've got so much bad stuff going on that we are leading the #6 team in the nation by two points on the road.

[kmspeaks]

Hey remember 3 or 4 post-game threads ago when people were absolutely baffled that Amile Jefferson didn't have any post moves? I think he found some. :)

[jwillfan]

Shot clock was at 1, he had to take it. Made up for it with 2 threes


Another block on a MJones shot leads to another transition bucket. It defies the law of averages to see this happening game after game. Man.

[_Gary]

Sorry. I'm on a delay. Glad to hear Matt is picking it up!

[gcashwell]

2-3 zone and plumlee and okafor in the game together. I'll take it.

[Karl Beem]

What shooting!

[jwillfan]

Whose? Amile's? Or lvilles brickfest?

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Seriously, is there a chance of getting chat up for the second half? Killin' me here...

[Freethrw33]

Louisville is building a house.

Great anticipation on the steal and solid finish by T. Jones.
Winslow with the AND-1.
Two straight fast breaks for Duke!!

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Sounds like Amile got a little tired of hearing about Jahlil's inside moves and decided to show off a little of his own game!

[arnie]

Louisville is building a house.

Great anticipation on the steal and solid finish by T. Jones.
Winslow with the AND-1.
Two straight fast breaks for Duke!!

Gotta give K credit. He read our posts and changed up the D strategy.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

We're in a zone?

Who's coaching?

[CDu]

Shocking that switching to a compact zone might be more effective than man-to-man when playing an athletic team that doesn't shoot great...

So happy to see a change in defensive strategy after the last two debacles. Happier that it is working!

[Kjeffrey]

Seriously, is there a chance of getting chat up for the second half? Killin' me here...

Chat was open for the first half.

[oldnavy]

Shocking that switching to a compact zone might be more effective than man-to-man when playing an athletic team that doesn't shoot great...

So happy to see a change in defensive strategy after the last two debacles. Happier that it is working!

I am looking to the sky, because I know the second coming is at hand!! A ZONE!!!

Well desperate times call for desperate measures!

Glad to see it, hopefully they will build confidence and keep it going through the second half!

Go Duke!

[Freethrw33]

Shocking that switching to a compact zone might be more effective than man-to-man when playing an athletic team that doesn't shoot great...

So happy to see a change in defensive strategy after the last two debacles. Happier that it is working!

Hooray! Most zone that I've seen Duke play in the past 10 years (at least).
Louisville is bound to make some more shots in 2nd half though, as not all of these outside (or inside) misses were closely guarded. However, Duke is giving up few (or no) lay-ups and dunks.
M. Jones' two 3s were big when we needed a boost. Q. Cook with the heave at the end of the shot-clock too. 9 points (~1/2 of L'Ville's total) right there.
Amile with his typical "shiftiness" in sliding into creases, as he played a nice half.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Chat was open for the first half.

Dag nabbit - I can't find the link. And, I apologize for grousing about it.

[DukeDevil]

not seeing the chat link either.

Anyone else suspicious that K is tied up in the locker room and someone with a mission impossible quality K mask is sitting on the bench calling for the zone?

Update: **I saw the link in the other post. Haven't been on chat this season and was used to seeing the tab at the top before**

[sagegrouse]

Is Pitino well? His coloring is awful. Maybe it's just watching his team clang shots.

Go Duke! After a slow start, our offense seemed to come around. Now we need Jahlil to take over.

Go Duke!
Sage

[CDu]

Loved the zone. We needed to change things up, and Coach K complied. Louisville got lots of good looks, but they missed over and over.

The other bonus of the zone? We had so few fouls that we could have just fouled away the end of the half. Unfortunately, someone missed the memo and didn't foul Harrell. Still, a long jumper by Harrell is good defense.

We haven't played well offensively at all, but thanks to the major change in defense, we are in control. This is so exciting!

[meloveduke]

Please link the chat. I can never find it without a link...

[grossbus]

Amile getting it done!

[Ultrarunner]

That's about the third time that Amile has slid behind Jah for a bucket. I wonder if part of the offensive change is to use Jah as a decoy and force teams to pick their poison?

[porkpa]

Why is Jon Scheyer wearing a sky blue tie?

[-jk]

Please link the chat. I can never find it without a link...

I generally put a separate thread up with the chat link - it gets lost too quickly otherwise. Here it is again.

DBR Chat (http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/misc.php?do=cchatbox) is open!

If it gets a bit slow, refresh the page. As always - please follow the DBR Posting Guidelines.

Let's Go Duke!

-jk

[jwillfan]

Chat doesn't work on mobile :(

[-jk]

Chat doesn't work on mobile :(

It works on mobile devices if you select "blue" rather than "mobile" in the pull down at the bottom of the page.

-jk

[gumbomoop]

Need steady and solid on O. Watch 10-second. Milk clock a little, shoot in last 15 seconds, preferably 10. Must rebound better. UL's chance is 3-bombs, steals, drives, and O-rebounds.

[CDu]

This has been thoroughly enjoyable. So impressed that the coaching staff was willing to commit to the 2-3 zone for almost the entire game. And so appreciative of Louisville stinking up the joint from 3.

We just need to protect the ball and hit free throws. Hang in there guys!

[dairedevil]

This game isn't over yet...I won't breathe easy until the clock says 0.00. But I am glad to see that they have responded to the changes K has made. Play defense, get rebounds, and hit those free throws!

[FerryFor50]

This has been thoroughly enjoyable. So impressed that the coaching staff was willing to commit to the 2-3 zone for almost the entire game. And so appreciative of Louisville stinking up the joint from 3.

We just need to protect the ball and hit free throws. Hang in there guys!

Impressed and shocked - I guess an old dog *can* learn new tricks after all. :)

Amile has been spectacular.

My only complaint is that they didn't keep attacking on offense, which helped L'ville reduce the deficit from 20ish to 10.

But a double digit win over this L'ville team? And out-defensing one of the best defenses in the country?

I'll take it!

[CDu]

Impressed and shocked - I guess an old dog *can* learn new tricks after all. :)

Amile has been spectacular.

My only complaint is that they didn't keep attacking on offense, which helped L'ville reduce the deficit from 20ish to 10.

But a double digit win over this L'ville team? And out-defensing one of the best defenses in the country?

I'll take it!

I couldn't agree more. I felt we needed some significant defensive changes, but never thought Coach K would be willing to play zone so much. So glad he gritted his teeth and went for it!