PDA

View Full Version : Grayson Allen's Freshman Prospects



dukejunkie
01-15-2015, 03:16 PM
Any chance Allen becomes a vital part of this year's squad? I know he's not putting up great shooting numbers. He has turned the ball over a few times. However, I am wondering if he somehow cracked the rotation for more serious minutes, would he be a solid contributor?

It seems Duke's perimeter defense is an issue. Allen isn't known as a defender. However, he seems to have quick feet and did a decent job of staying in front of his man during his limited minutes versus Miami. He has length. Also, with shooting being one of Coach K's primary concerns, it seems Allen could potentially help.

I believe Allen came in once during the first half of the Miami game. While he was in (Plumlee in too for his only first half run) the team looked energetic and competed.

While Allen will probably never get a ton of minutes this year, maybe strategically taking the pressure off other guys that are pressing might help.

superdave
01-15-2015, 03:21 PM
Any chance Allen becomes a vital part of this year's squad? I know he's not putting up great shooting numbers. He has turned the ball over a few times. However, I am wondering if he somehow cracked the rotation for more serious minutes, would he be a solid contributor?

It seems Duke's perimeter defense is an issue. Allen isn't known as a defender. However, he seems to have quick feet and did a decent job of staying in front of his man during his limited minutes versus Miami. He has length. Also, with shooting being one of Coach K's primary concerns, it seems Allen could potentially help.

I believe Allen came in once during the first half of the Miami game. While he was in (Plumlee in too for his only first half run) the team looked energetic and competed.

While Allen will probably never get a ton of minutes this year, maybe strategically taking the pressure off other guys that are pressing might help.

This is highly unlikely. We have plenty of backcourt and wing depth so anything Grayson gets beyond a quick look in the first half and mop-up duty at the ends of games would be surprising.

I would love to see him come in to press on occasion but we have not shown that scheme consistently this season.

CDu
01-15-2015, 03:32 PM
This is highly unlikely. We have plenty of backcourt and wing depth so anything Grayson gets beyond a quick look in the first half and mop-up duty at the ends of games would be surprising.

I would love to see him come in to press on occasion but we have not shown that scheme consistently this season.

I agree. Allen is in a tough spot because he's behind 5 other guys on the perimeter (Jones, Cook, Winslow, Sulaimon, Jones). Coach K doesn't like to roll 6-deep on the perimeter. So unless he proves more ready than one of the others, I don't see him having a meaningful in-game role on this year's team.

Allen also hasn't looked terribly good since the level of competition has risen either. He was terrific in the early-season blowouts of the weaker teams on our schedule, but he's looked pretty shaky in his more recent games as the quality of comp has increased. The only guy he could potentially overtake would be Matt Jones, but Jones is taller, quicker, better defensively, and longer-armed than Allen, and as such is more suited to be a role player at SG and SF. Allen is kind of small (thick, but shorter) and is thus not well suited for SF. So his lack of versatility makes him less appealing as a bench option compared with Jones and Sulaimon.

That said, I'd see him moving into the first or second guard off the bench role next year.

Kedsy
01-15-2015, 03:33 PM
Any chance Allen becomes a vital part of this year's squad? I know he's not putting up great shooting numbers. He has turned the ball over a few times. However, I am wondering if he somehow cracked the rotation for more serious minutes, would he be a solid contributor?

It seems Duke's perimeter defense is an issue. Allen isn't known as a defender. However, he seems to have quick feet and did a decent job of staying in front of his man during his limited minutes versus Miami. He has length. Also, with shooting being one of Coach K's primary concerns, it seems Allen could potentially help.

I believe Allen came in once during the first half of the Miami game. While he was in (Plumlee in too for his only first half run) the team looked energetic and competed.

While Allen will probably never get a ton of minutes this year, maybe strategically taking the pressure off other guys that are pressing might help.

I thought the 8 minutes Grayson got against Miami were both surprising and more than he'll get in any non-blowout from here on out. But I suppose you never know. Personally, though I like his prospects for the future, I don't see him as any kind of improvement over the guys ahead of him this season.

Bob Green
01-15-2015, 04:07 PM
I agree with the previous posters that Allen's future at Duke is very bright, but he will not see a lot of playing time this season due to the depth in front of him.

jv001
01-15-2015, 04:11 PM
I'll take Jim Sumner's opinion on Grayson. I'm pretty sure he posted a little while back, that he thinks Grayson will see rotation minutes next season and Coach K thinks highly of him. I'm paraphrasing Mr. Sumner and if he says that, I believe him. GoDuke!

CajunDevil
01-15-2015, 04:23 PM
While I agree that Grayson is unlikely to see much time this year, I could see him being used on offense to stretch the floor if our shooters continue to lack confidence... similar to how K used Grayson vs Miami. Now, I fully anticipate our shooting woes to be corrected in the Yum Center :). Wait... This isn't the optimistic thread?

CDu
01-15-2015, 04:25 PM
I'll take Jim Sumner's opinion on Grayson. I'm pretty sure he posted a little while back, that he thinks Grayson will see rotation minutes next season and Coach K thinks highly of him. I'm paraphrasing Mr. Sumner and if he says that, I believe him. GoDuke!

I could see his pathway being in some ways similar to that of Matt Jones: minimal PT as a freshman, backup wing as a sophomore, with a chance to crack the starting lineup as an upperclassman. It remains to be seen if either Jones or Allen progress to that upperclassmen starting role, but that's kind of the trajectory I'd see for them.

dukejunkie
01-15-2015, 04:43 PM
This is highly unlikely. We have plenty of backcourt and wing depth so anything Grayson gets beyond a quick look in the first half and mop-up duty at the ends of games would be surprising.

I would love to see him come in to press on occasion but we have not shown that scheme consistently this season.

Sorry- by players pressing I meant compounding poor play. Also, I know that there are limited minutes and don't expect much. I guess I see the slump Matt Jones is in and figure Grayson might be helpful. Assuming Jones is in there for his d, I just don't see it. I don't agree that he is fast. He isn't super athletic. Yes he tries like Wojo and Thornton but that doesn't mean he is a great defender. I'm sure others might disagree and it probably doesn't matter because they should both be at the end of this year's rotation.

Bob Green
01-15-2015, 04:49 PM
I'm sure others might disagree...

The main guy who disagrees with you is Coach K. He has called out Matt Jones' defense as a big positive during press conferences. When the big guy believes something it is reality.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
01-15-2015, 04:50 PM
I think Grayson has lots of potential as well. I wouldn't be surprised at all if K were to use him to inject some energy and positive enthusiasm into the line-up in the near future as a way to poke the starters and tweak things a bit.

It's also not impossible to imagine his role growing into more meaningful minutes in the next two months. It's the more traditional way for a first-year player to develop.

dukejunkie
01-15-2015, 05:24 PM
The main guy who disagrees with you is Coach K. He has called out Matt Jones' defense as a big positive during press conferences. When the big guy believes something it is reality.

Understood. I've just been wondering the tradeoff. It seems like Matt is in a mini funk. I have always admired his hustle. However, does anybody believe he is an elite defender?

Bob Green
01-15-2015, 05:31 PM
However, does anybody believe he is an elite defender?

At risk of repeating myself, Coach K does!

dukejunkie
01-15-2015, 05:36 PM
At risk of repeating myself, Coach K does!

I'm pretty sure the big guy isn't reading these boards! I'm just trying to stir up some conversation. Was wondering what others think? Bob, from what you have seen, do you think he is an elite defender?

Bob Green
01-15-2015, 06:06 PM
Bob, from what you have seen, do you think he is an elite defender?

Not yet, but I believe he has the potential to be an elite defender due to size, instincts and, most important, desire. Matt Jones appears to enjoy playing defense. I am as guilty as everyone else for having an offensive perspective when watching games and analyzing results so I keyed in on his shooting slump several post game threads ago. But his defense is going to continue to earn him minutes and those minutes are going to build his confidence and skill.

Oriole Way
01-15-2015, 06:27 PM
I thought the 8 minutes Grayson got against Miami were both surprising and more than he'll get in any non-blowout from here on out. But I suppose you never know. Personally, though I like his prospects for the future, I don't see him as any kind of improvement over the guys ahead of him this season.

He could potentially be an upgrade over Matt Jones. If Jones continues to be a complete liability offensively, and if Grayson can improve his defense even just a little bit. I like his chances, I just hope Coach K gives him an opportunity for more minutes in some of the games following the Louisville/UVA/ND stretch.

OldSchool
01-15-2015, 06:38 PM
Any chance Allen becomes a vital part of this year's squad? I know he's not putting up great shooting numbers. He has turned the ball over a few times. However, I am wondering if he somehow cracked the rotation for more serious minutes, would he be a solid contributor?

It seems Duke's perimeter defense is an issue. Allen isn't known as a defender. However, he seems to have quick feet and did a decent job of staying in front of his man during his limited minutes versus Miami. He has length. Also, with shooting being one of Coach K's primary concerns, it seems Allen could potentially help.

I believe Allen came in once during the first half of the Miami game. While he was in (Plumlee in too for his only first half run) the team looked energetic and competed.

While Allen will probably never get a ton of minutes this year, maybe strategically taking the pressure off other guys that are pressing might help.

I would give Marshall and Grayson a bit more playing time, but not so much as to change the basic rotation philosophy.

I would give Quinn as a senior as many minutes as he can handle, but the freshmen and sophomores should get more breaks on the bench with the idea that when they are in there they are expected to maintain a higher level of mental concentration and energy on the defensive end and reduce the turnovers from sloppy passes and ball-handling on the offensive end.

dukelifer
01-15-2015, 06:50 PM
At some point Duke may needs a consistent shooter from outside and he has a chance to get that spot. Also, it is rare to go a whole season without some injury- hence he needs to be ready.

Bob Green
01-15-2015, 07:03 PM
Also, it is rare to go a whole season without some injury- hence he needs to be ready.

I sincerely hope you knocked on wood immediately after typing those words.

GGLC
01-15-2015, 07:23 PM
I believe Matt Jones is an elite (say, top conference quintile among guards) defender.

lotusland
01-15-2015, 08:38 PM
I believe Matt Jones is an elite (say, top conference quintile among guards) defender.

Grayson made a really bad turnover by telegraphing a lazy pass out on perimeter. I can't remember is Miami scored off it or not but those kind of errors will probably get the hook quicker than a missed open shot.

dukejunkie
01-15-2015, 08:44 PM
I believe Matt Jones is an elite (say, top conference quintile among guards) defender.

Matt tries harder than anybody on the team. He also throws his body around with no regard. However, I don't think he is agile enough to lock the best down. In my opinion, Duke has one elite defender- Winslow. I believe Coach K agrees ;)

jv001
01-15-2015, 08:54 PM
Matt tries harder than anybody on the team. He also throws his body around with no regard. However, I don't think he is agile enough to lock the best down. In my opinion, Duke has one elite defender- Winslow. I believe Coach K agrees ;)

Coach K has said also that Rasheed is the teams best on the ball defender. So, I guess Matt, Rasheed and Justise are our best defenders. Well, wait a minute, I think Amile is a pretty good defender as well. GoDuke!

dukejunkie
01-15-2015, 09:20 PM
Coach K has said also that Rasheed is the teams best on the ball defender. So, I guess Matt, Rasheed and Justise are our best defenders. Well, wait a minute, I think Amile is a pretty good defender as well. GoDuke!

I thought about those two too. Funny how such a talented defensive team is performing. Maybe it is time for optimism!

dukelifer
01-15-2015, 09:35 PM
I sincerely hope you knocked on wood immediately after typing those words.

My computer is made of wood.

jv001
01-16-2015, 03:49 AM
I thought about those two too. Funny how such a talented defensive team is performing. Maybe it is time for optimism!

I think it's called a "Fist" because if one player is out of position, then the team as a whole breaks down. GoDuke!

Kfanarmy
01-16-2015, 08:43 AM
The main guy who disagrees with you is Coach K. He has called out Matt Jones' defense as a big positive during press conferences. When the big guy believes something it is reality.

As much as I respect Coach K, I'm sure he believed Duke wasn't going to get their____ handed to them by Miami. I don't think anyone on the perimeter played great defense, but that wasn't player failure either.

mpj96
01-16-2015, 08:56 AM
I like what I've seen of Grayson so far. He is not ready yet for big minutes but I like working him into the rotation. Teams like Miami and State would love to have a Grayson Allen on their squad. He can spell our big minute getters with 10 minutes of play/ game and the starters will play with more energy, knowing that they have gas in the tank to burn. I doubt that he'll get that much time this year but I'd be thrilled if he did. A more realistic prediction is that his minutes remain as they are and his role becomes more and more important to the team year by year.

sagegrouse
01-16-2015, 08:56 AM
As much as I respect Coach K, I'm sure he believed Duke wasn't going to get their____ handed to them by Miami. I don't think anyone on the perimeter played great defense, but that wasn't player failure either.

I think that's a safe assumption, even at half time, when we had a lead.

dukejunkie
01-29-2015, 09:52 PM
Figured this thread could use a bump. Nobody can replace Rasheed. However, Grayson is almost certainly going to get more PT. I'm not sure if K just tightens the rotation or if Grayson does get real minutes. I think he has it in him. We shall see...

Sad day for Duke hoops and Rasheed. Whole situation is a shame.

Kedsy
01-29-2015, 11:31 PM
Figured this thread could use a bump. Nobody can replace Rasheed. However, Grayson is almost certainly going to get more PT. I'm not sure if K just tightens the rotation or if Grayson does get real minutes. I think he has it in him. We shall see...

Sad day for Duke hoops and Rasheed. Whole situation is a shame.

It'll be interesting to see if Grayson does start to get meaningful minutes or if K just gives Marshall a few more minutes and we stick with the usual 7-man rotation. I don't think anything's certain at this point.

Dukehky
01-29-2015, 11:35 PM
It'll be interesting to see if Grayson does start to get meaningful minutes or if K just gives Marshall a few more minutes and we stick with the usual 7-man rotation. I don't think anything's certain at this point.

I don't think anything really changes. You earn minutes. Grayson hasn't earned them yet. I don't think he will get 5 extra minutes a game just for the hell of it. He may be brought it out of necessity, but I think we are going to rock a 7 man rotation for the vast majority of the time.

Kedsy
01-30-2015, 12:47 AM
I don't think anything really changes. You earn minutes. Grayson hasn't earned them yet. I don't think he will get 5 extra minutes a game just for the hell of it. He may be brought it out of necessity, but I think we are going to rock a 7 man rotation for the vast majority of the time.

I think you're probably right. But you never know. For what it's worth, from what I've seen I don't at all think Grayson is a bad defender. I think he has the tools to be better than Tyus or Quinn at the very least, and eventually actually be a plus defender. I just don't know whether he's ready to play meaningful minutes yet.

Wander
01-30-2015, 03:24 AM
I don't think anything really changes. You earn minutes. Grayson hasn't earned them yet.


I just don't know whether he's ready to play meaningful minutes yet.

Ready or not, 8 scholarship players is 8 scholarship players. I agree with you guys that our default is probably going to be a 7 man rotation, but I think it's basically guaranteed that at some point during the remainder of the season Grayson will see some minutes of playing time in a competitive game due to foul trouble or somebody getting cramps or whatever.

CDu
01-30-2015, 07:51 AM
Obviously it isn't certain, but I would expect Sulaimon's 19 mpg to be distributed something like as follows:

Winslow: +3 (from 27 to 30)
Matt Jones: +8 (from 17 to 25)
Jefferson: +4 (from 24 to 28)
Plumlee: +2 (from 9 to 11)
Allen: +2 (from 5* to 7)

I think the biggest change is that Matt Jones now becomes essentially a 6th starter, and we will now see the small lineup much less.

I think this will give Matt Jones and (indirectly) Jefferson and Plumlee a chance to seize more playing time. But I would have expected Coach to tighten the rotation anyway, so I see this as simply forcing the tightening rather than giving Allen a big boost.

There will surely be times (injury, multiple players in foul trouble) where Allen gets pressed into more action. But in terms of the normal rotation, I am not sure we will see a big change.

* the 5 is his average over all games as he had 4 DNPs

dukejunkie
01-30-2015, 11:44 AM
I think that you are underestimating Allen's importance. There are times when a team can use an offensive spark off the bench. Sulaimon definitely could provide it. I'm pretty sure that Duke is not going to get it from Plumlee or Matt Jones. By default, K might have to try Allen some in that role- not just because of injuries or foul trouble.


Obviously it isn't certain, but I would expect Sulaimon's 19 mpg to be distributed something like as follows:

Winslow: +3 (from 27 to 30)
Matt Jones: +8 (from 17 to 25)
Jefferson: +4 (from 24 to 28)
Plumlee: +2 (from 9 to 11)
Allen: +2 (from 5* to 7)

I think the biggest change is that Matt Jones now becomes essentially a 6th starter, and we will now see the small lineup much less.

I think this will give Matt Jones and (indirectly) Jefferson and Plumlee a chance to seize more playing time. But I would have expected Coach to tighten the rotation anyway, so I see this as simply forcing the tightening rather than giving Allen a big boost.

There will surely be times (injury, multiple players in foul trouble) where Allen gets pressed into more action. But in terms of the normal rotation, I am not sure we will see a big change.

* the 5 is his average over all games as he had 4 DNPs

kAzE
01-30-2015, 11:49 AM
Obviously it isn't certain, but I would expect Sulaimon's 19 mpg to be distributed something like as follows:

Winslow: +3 (from 27 to 30)
Matt Jones: +8 (from 17 to 25)
Jefferson: +4 (from 24 to 28)
Plumlee: +2 (from 9 to 11)
Allen: +2 (from 5* to 7)

I think the biggest change is that Matt Jones now becomes essentially a 6th starter, and we will now see the small lineup much less.

I think this will give Matt Jones and (indirectly) Jefferson and Plumlee a chance to seize more playing time. But I would have expected Coach to tighten the rotation anyway, so I see this as simply forcing the tightening rather than giving Allen a big boost.

There will surely be times (injury, multiple players in foul trouble) where Allen gets pressed into more action. But in terms of the normal rotation, I am not sure we will see a big change.

* the 5 is his average over all games as he had 4 DNPs

I think Allen needs to have a bigger role. Right now, the only 2 real playmakers we have are both in the starting lineup. Rasheed's ability to get in the paint from the perimeter and make plays was a vital part of our bench, and Allen is the only guy coming off the bench who could realistically develop that skill set. (I think we mostly know the limitations of Matt Jones' game at this point) I don't think he gets Sulaimon's 19 minutes, but I think he needs to get 10-12 minutes, and then maybe more if he starts to prove himself.

jipops
01-30-2015, 11:59 AM
I think Allen needs to have a bigger role. Right now, the only 2 real playmakers we have are both in the starting lineup. Rasheed's ability to get in the paint from the perimeter and make plays was a vital part of our bench, and Allen is the only guy coming off the bench who could realistically develop that skill set. (I think we mostly know the limitations of Matt Jones' game at this point) I don't think he gets Sulaimon's 19 minutes, but I think he needs to get 10-12 minutes, and then maybe more if he starts to prove himself.

Even with depleted depth I would be shocked if Grayson gets anywhere near 10-12 minutes p/g for the rest of the season. I know you've been very high on him and I like him a lot too. I think he will be a nice role player while at Duke but he just hasn't shown anything to indicate that he is ready to compete at this level, yet. Sure he's athletic, he can shoot it and handle a little bit, but the game appears way too fast for him right now. I think K is going with primarily a 7-man rotation from here on out with Grayson filling in on spot duty when foul issues arise. K may insert him in the 1st half of a few games just to get some sort of feel for how much he may have going. But he'll be quick to yank him once Grayson starts to look out of place and will only come off the bench if/when there is serious foul trouble amongst our other guards.

SoCalDukeFan
01-30-2015, 12:12 PM
When a player in many sports moved to the next level, has some problems, then improves you often hear commentators says something like the game is starting to slow down for him.

In my opinion the college game is still too fast for Grayson. I would guess that over time it will in fact slow down for him.

I don't think he will just be awarded minutes because Rasheed is not there. He will probably get some more minutes out of necessity and hopefully will benefit greatly from the experience and it will accelerate the process of slowing the game for him.

SoCal

sagegrouse
01-30-2015, 12:13 PM
Even with depleted depth I would be shocked if Grayson gets anywhere near 10-12 minutes p/g for the rest of the season. I know you've been very high on him and I like him a lot too. I think he will be a nice role player while at Duke but he just hasn't shown anything to indicate that he is ready to compete at this level, yet. Sure he's athletic, he can shoot it and handle a little bit, but the game appears way too fast for him right now. I think K is going with primarily a 7-man rotation from here on out with Grayson filling in on spot duty when foul issues arise. K may insert him in the 1st half of a few games just to get some sort of feel for how much he may have going. But he'll be quick to yank him once Grayson starts to look out of place and will only come off the bench if/when there is serious foul trouble amongst our other guards.

I expect Grayson to get more minutes. He is averaging 3-4 MPG in ACC action and 5-6 overall. If he gets eight minutes a game, that's a big increase, and I think likely. I'm not sure, though, that he'll see a lot of action tomorrow at JPJ.

As usual, you can take all my predictions to the bank -- that's the Bank of Kiev.

superdave
01-30-2015, 12:23 PM
If both Quinn and Tyus foul out, then what? Do you turn to Allen who has played sparingly and say "next man up"? Even though Allen would not be prepared?

Or do you give him 5-6 minutes every game to help him be prepared for the intensity level?

Or is there something in between?

Super "Why am I only asking questions?" Dave

gus
01-30-2015, 12:28 PM
If both Quinn and Tyus foul out, then what? Do you turn to Allen who has played sparingly and say "next man up"? Even though Allen would not be prepared?

Or do you give him 5-6 minutes every game to help him be prepared for the intensity level?

Or is there something in between?

Super "Why am I only asking questions?" Dave

If both Quinn and Tyus foul out, then we lose. That was true when Rasheed was still on the roster too.

CDu
01-30-2015, 01:11 PM
I think that you are underestimating Allen's importance. There are times when a team can use an offensive spark off the bench. Sulaimon definitely could provide it. I'm pretty sure that Duke is not going to get it from Plumlee or Matt Jones. By default, K might have to try Allen some in that role- not just because of injuries or foul trouble.


I think Allen needs to have a bigger role. Right now, the only 2 real playmakers we have are both in the starting lineup. Rasheed's ability to get in the paint from the perimeter and make plays was a vital part of our bench, and Allen is the only guy coming off the bench who could realistically develop that skill set. (I think we mostly know the limitations of Matt Jones' game at this point) I don't think he gets Sulaimon's 19 minutes, but I think he needs to get 10-12 minutes, and then maybe more if he starts to prove himself.

I respectfully disagree with both of these viewpoints. I think people are overestimating the "need" for offensive punch, and I think people are overestimating Allen's readiness to provide that punch even if needed. Allen has, in ACC play, not looked ready to contribute.

I think people are really overstating his readiness and being fooled by his performances in blowouts of bad teams early in the year. For example, here are Allen's numbers against the 5 true doormats on our schedule (Presbyterian, Fairfield, Army, Furman, and Elon): 5 games, 12.4 mpg, 45.5 fg%, 30.8 3pt%, 6.4 ppg, 1.4 rpg, 1.2 apg, 1.2 spg, 1 to per game (2.0 a:to ratio).

Conversely, here are Allen's numbers against higher-quality opponents this year (i.e., excluding the games above): 11 of 15 games played, 3.3 mpg, 33.3 fg%, 40.0 3pt%, 1.2 ppg, 0 rpg, 0 apg, 0.1 spg, 0.5 to per game (0.0 a:to ratio).

The kid has been a complete non-factor against better competition. He just does not appear to be ready to play with the big boys yet. He certainly does not appear to be ready to provide anything like what Sulaimon could provide.

More importantly, I'm not sure we need a huge spark off the bench anyway. I think we have enough scorers in Tyus Jones, Cook, Winslow, and Okafor that we can survive with the secondary contributions of Jefferson and Matt Jones offensively. It just puts more of the pressure on Tyus Jones and Winslow to score more consistently.

I do think Allen will play a bit more. Probably in the 5-8 mpg range. But I don't think he's going to average double-digit minutes per game the rest of the way, nor do I think he's ready to give us an offensive spark off the bench this year.

CDu
01-30-2015, 01:17 PM
If both Quinn and Tyus foul out, then we lose. That was true when Rasheed was still on the roster too.

Correct. I'll also add that the likelihood of both Tyus Jones and Cook fouling out is VERY small. Jones has committed 3 fouls in a game just three times this year (and never more than 3). Cook has committed 3 fouls in a game just 7 times this year (and 4 fouls just once). Neither has fouled out, and in our 20 games there has been just 1 game in which both players got 3 fouls (and both only had 3 that game).

It is extremely unlikely that we'll have a situation where both players foul out. And if we do, we were probably going to lose with or without a ready Allen.

BD80
01-30-2015, 01:23 PM
Correct. I'll also add that the likelihood of both Tyus Jones and Cook fouling out is VERY small. Jones has committed 3 fouls in a game just three times this year (and never more than 3). Cook has committed 3 fouls in a game just 7 times this year (and 4 fouls just once). Neither has fouled out, and in our 20 games there has been just 1 game in which both players got 3 fouls (and both only had 3 that game).

It is extremely unlikely that we'll have a situation where both players foul out. And if we do, we were probably going to lose with or without a ready Allen.

They'd have to get closer to the men they are guarding to commit more fouls. That has been a bit of an issue to date

CDu
01-30-2015, 01:27 PM
They'd have to get closer to the men they are guarding to commit more fouls. That has been a bit of an issue to date

Very true.

It is worth noting that it is pretty easy for a guard to avoid fouling out. Foul trouble can happen for guards, but it is much more likely to affect a big man.

It would be a complete shock for both of our PG to foul out in a game.

superdave
01-30-2015, 01:29 PM
Say we're up the whole game vs UConn in the Final Four, but Tyus and Quinn have foul trouble. Do you play Grayson a few minutes to buy some time?

We're going to need him at some point in the next two months. Might as well make the rotation 7.5 men instead of 7.

Wander
01-30-2015, 01:37 PM
Say we're up the whole game vs UConn in the Final Four, but Tyus and Quinn have foul trouble. Do you play Grayson a few minutes to buy some time?


It doesn't really matter because meeting UConn in the Final Four likely implies that it's the NIT semifinals.

CDu
01-30-2015, 01:37 PM
Say we're up the whole game vs UConn in the Final Four, but Tyus and Quinn have foul trouble. Do you play Grayson a few minutes to buy some time?

We're going to need him at some point in the next two months. Might as well make the rotation 7.5 men instead of 7.

I tend to disagree. Again, it is extremely unlikely that both Cook and Tyus Jones are in foul trouble. And if that happens, I don't think an extra few minutes per game for Allen is going to make the difference in that hypothetical game for us.

And again, I'm already saying we'll probably give him 5-8 mpg now as opposed to 2-5. I don't think going to 10+ mpg is necessary, and I think it would make us worse in all of the 10+ mpg games. Not worth it (in my opinion) for the off-chance that we need him in the tournament.

Bob Green
01-30-2015, 03:23 PM
I do think Allen will play a bit more. Probably in the 5-8 mpg range. But I don't think he's going to average double-digit minutes per game the rest of the way, nor do I think he's ready to give us an offensive spark off the bench this year.

This view coincides with my thoughts. I want Allen to see increased playing time so he gains experience in case the situation arises where he has to play; however, I do not expect him to play double digit minutes.

With the rotation tightened, it is increasingly important for Justise Winslow to get healthy.

CDu
01-30-2015, 03:27 PM
This view coincides with my thoughts. I want Allen to see increased playing time so he gains experience in case the situation arises where he has to play; however, I do not expect him to play double digit minutes.

With the rotation tightened, it is increasingly important for Justise Winslow to get healthy.

Yes. What the loss of Sulaimon does do unequivocally is put a lot more pressure on our top 6 players to stay healthy, productive, and available.

I am already putting "Health" in as the first bullet in my draft of the Phase V post. :mad:

Kedsy
01-30-2015, 03:36 PM
I am already putting "Health" in as the first bullet in my draft of the Phase V post. :mad:

As you should be. ;)

Gilby_10
01-30-2015, 03:44 PM
Offense is not what we need, if we look back at the team from 2010 that won the national title Duke only had 3 guys that scored for that team. Now I understand that those players were juniors and seniors so this isn't ideal. It's a good thing Coach K is on our side

Bob Green
01-30-2015, 03:48 PM
Offense is not what we need...

I disagree. When our offense struggles our defense struggles. Our defense is greatly aided by solid offensive efficiency. Some teams play great defense regardless of offensive performance, the 2015 Blue Devils are not one of those teams.

Gilby_10
01-30-2015, 03:56 PM
I disagree. When our offense struggles our defense struggles. Our defense is greatly aided by solid offensive efficiency. Some teams play great defense regardless of offensive performance, the 2015 Blue Devils are not one of those teams.

I agree with what your saying, what we need is toughness from our leaders and we haven't had that this year

Kedsy
01-30-2015, 04:10 PM
I agree with what your saying, what we need is toughness from our leaders and we haven't had that this year

Disagree. I think Quinn and Amile have been plenty tough and have been good leaders. I get that we shouldn't have lost to Miami, and probably not NC State, either, but to act like the season has been a disaster and trying to lay blame on "our leaders," is a bit off the mark, in my opinion.

CDu
01-30-2015, 04:19 PM
Disagree. I think Quinn and Amile have been plenty tough and have been good leaders. I get that we shouldn't have lost to Miami, and probably not NC State, either, but to act like the season has been a disaster and trying to lay blame on "our leaders," is a bit off the mark, in my opinion.

I mostly agree with you. However, I think we showed a lack of poise in each of our three losses, two of which came in blowout fashion against inferior teams. I would say that, in those three games, we lacked leadership. And outside of the Wake game, and the St. John's game (in which Cook clearly was a leader), I'm not sure that leadership has been all that critical in our wins.

Note that I specifically excluded the Wisconsin game. I believe that leadership is exhibited when things are going tough. We ran roughshod over Wisconsin's defense, and as such leadership was not an issue. This team simply hasn't had too many games this year in which we've really struggled. If anything, we'd mostly coasted/cruised through games until the Wake game.

I don't think Cook and Jefferson are bad leaders. I just don't know that we've seen a ton of evidence of their leadership so far this year. Noteworthy examples include Jefferson's play in the Miami and Louisville games and Cook's play in the Miami and St. John's games.

elvis14
01-30-2015, 04:23 PM
Offense is not what we need, if we look back at the team from 2010 that won the national title Duke only had 3 guys that scored for that team. Now I understand that those players were juniors and seniors so this isn't ideal. It's a good thing Coach K is on our side

I disagree with this as well. I don't see any way this team is going to be exceptionally good at defense. To succeed at a high level we are going to have score and keep scoring. The ND collapse is a good example of this. We stopped scoring and they did not. Offense is exactly what we need (well, defense is what we really need but I don't think we are going to get it so offense it is!).

I would like to see Allen's minutes increase in hopes that the game slows down for him some and he starts to contribute more effectively. Note, I suspect that IF he is going to get a significant increase in minutes (say 5 minutes or more) it will not start tomorrow against UVa.

wk2109
01-30-2015, 04:41 PM
I side with the people who don't expect Grayson's playing time to increase much, if at all. The game still seems a little too fast for him at this point and he's just not ready to contribute meaningful minutes.

There's plenty of evidence that Coach K is fine with bringing just 1 guard and 1 big off the bench. I think Marshall and Matt will see increased playing time and Justise will spend less time at the 4.

For those who think Grayson will suddenly be placed in a significant role off the bench, I'd ask the following: If Grayson weren't on the roster and all other current circumstances were the same, would you expect a walk-on to pick up Rasheed's minutes? I don't think so. It's probably safer to assume that Coach K will increase the minutes of players he thinks are ready to play than to assume that Grayson will play more just because he happens to play the same position as Rasheed.

Edouble
01-30-2015, 07:36 PM
I side with the people who don't expect Grayson's playing time to increase much, if at all. The game still seems a little too fast for him at this point and he's just not ready to contribute meaningful minutes.

There's plenty of evidence that Coach K is fine with bringing just 1 guard and 1 big off the bench. I think Marshall and Matt will see increased playing time and Justise will spend less time at the 4.

For those who think Grayson will suddenly be placed in a significant role off the bench, I'd ask the following: If Grayson weren't on the roster and all other current circumstances were the same, would you expect a walk-on to pick up Rasheed's minutes? I don't think so. It's probably safer to assume that Coach K will increase the minutes of players he thinks are ready to play than to assume that Grayson will play more just because he happens to play the same position as Rasheed.

Exactly.

I'd point back to just a few years ago when the team desperately needed a lock down defender at the wing position and a Mickey D's AA, Michael Gbinije, was available at the end of the bench. Even though his height and athleticism looked like it could provide just what the team needed, he didn't become a significant contributor because he wasn't ready to see the floor. If you're ready, you'll get in the games. If you're not, you won't.

grossbus
01-30-2015, 07:42 PM
"The kid has been a complete non-factor against better competition."

hard to demonstrate anything in 3.3 minutes.

FerryFor50
01-30-2015, 07:47 PM
"The kid has been a complete non-factor against better competition."

hard to demonstrate anything in 3.3 minutes.

He demonstrated a few times in those minutes that the game was too fast for him.

CDu
01-30-2015, 07:54 PM
"The kid has been a complete non-factor against better competition."

hard to demonstrate anything in 3.3 minutes.


He demonstrated a few times in those minutes that the game was too fast for him.

Yup. There is a reason for the very limited minutes.

Wander
01-30-2015, 08:39 PM
It's probably safer to assume that Coach K will increase the minutes of players he thinks are ready to play than to assume that Grayson will play more just because he happens to play the same position as Rasheed.



I'd point back to just a few years ago when the team desperately needed a lock down defender at the wing position and a Mickey D's AA, Michael Gbinije, was available at the end of the bench. Even though his height and athleticism looked like it could provide just what the team needed, he didn't become a significant contributor because he wasn't ready to see the floor. If you're ready, you'll get in the games. If you're not, you won't.


I really think you guys are underestimating how odd it is to only have 8 scholarship players. I don't necessarily disagree that we'll try to do a 7 man rotation most of the time, but even then it is inevitable that Grayson will play more. We weren't deep in 2005, and Reggie Love still played double digit minutes in a bunch of ACC games. We weren't deep in 2010, but 8th man Andre Dawkins still played, even in the NCAA tournament (Baylor!), and 9th man Ryan Kelly still got into a bunch of ACC games. It's just logistically difficult to literally only play 7 guys for over a month and a half. I'll make whatever silly forum bet you want that Grayson's average minutes are going to go up. It may only be another couple minutes a game, or it may come in the form of needing to play major minutes because of fouls/injuries in a particular game, but one way or another Grayson's role has definitely increased.

Edouble
01-30-2015, 08:57 PM
I really think you guys are underestimating how odd it is to only have 8 scholarship players. I don't necessarily disagree that we'll try to do a 7 man rotation most of the time, but even then it is inevitable that Grayson will play more. We weren't deep in 2005, and Reggie Love still played double digit minutes in a bunch of ACC games. We weren't deep in 2010, but 8th man Andre Dawkins still played, even in the NCAA tournament (Baylor!), and 9th man Ryan Kelly still got into a bunch of ACC games. It's just logistically difficult to literally only play 7 guys for over a month and a half. I'll make whatever silly forum bet you want that Grayson's average minutes are going to go up. It may only be another couple minutes a game, or it may come in the form of needing to play major minutes because of fouls/injuries in a particular game, but one way or another Grayson's role has definitely increased.

Consider... Rasheed only played 12 minutes against Notre Dame.

Marshall played 6. Amile played 17. Matt played 21.

Give each guy 1/3 of Rasheed's minutes, for four a piece, and you have a reasonable minutes distribution. I doubt that Quinn will play all 40 minutes in most games, but 34-36 seems reasonable. So, give each guy, Marshall, Matt, and Amile another minute or two and that's 5-6 extra minutes each.

I'm sure Grayson will play in games, particularly if we are up by a significant margin. I don't think that he now automatically "gets" 10-12 minutes in every game with Rasheed gone.

JMO, as Julio always says, we'll know soon enough.

wk2109
01-31-2015, 01:57 PM
I really think you guys are underestimating how odd it is to only have 8 scholarship players. I don't necessarily disagree that we'll try to do a 7 man rotation most of the time, but even then it is inevitable that Grayson will play more. We weren't deep in 2005, and Reggie Love still played double digit minutes in a bunch of ACC games. We weren't deep in 2010, but 8th man Andre Dawkins still played, even in the NCAA tournament (Baylor!), and 9th man Ryan Kelly still got into a bunch of ACC games. It's just logistically difficult to literally only play 7 guys for over a month and a half. I'll make whatever silly forum bet you want that Grayson's average minutes are going to go up. It may only be another couple minutes a game, or it may come in the form of needing to play major minutes because of fouls/injuries in a particular game, but one way or another Grayson's role has definitely increased.

Reggie Love filled a specific role on the 2005 team as a banger inside and Andre Dawkins had to play out of necessity as the 4th perimeter player. Ryan Kelly averaged less than 4 mpg against ACC opponents with a high of 8 min -- Coach K said he regretted not redshirting Ryan that season so he obviously didn't consider Ryan's minutes to be very meaningful. I don't think Grayson fills a necessary role like Reggie or Andre did and his role is probably more similar to Ryan's was as a freshman.

It's all relative when it comes to saying "Grayson's role has definitely increased." Sure, I'll grant that it's likely that his mpg might increase by a few and maybe he'll get into some games that he wouldn't have if Rasheed were still on the team, but I think it's very unlikely that he'll actually become a meaningful part of the rotation.

That said, I do hope and expect that the game will slow down for him and he'll play an important role as a sophomore and beyond.

TruBlu
01-31-2015, 02:16 PM
Is the game too fast for Grayson, or is Grayson trying to play too fast for the game? It seems that his mistake, particularly on offense, is that he is rushing too much . . . trying to make passes, shots, and drives that aren't there.

This may improve when/if he gets more in-game experience. Here's hoping.

Edouble
01-31-2015, 02:29 PM
Is the game too fast for Grayson, or is Grayson trying to play too fast for the game? It seems that his mistake, particularly on offense, is that he is rushing too much . . . trying to make passes, shots, and drives that aren't there.

This may improve when/if he gets more in-game experience. Here's hoping.

Could we just run the high screen Jason Williams inbound play for a dunk for Grayson? That might calm him down a bit. I think he's anxious to get that first insane throw down out of the way.

Kedsy
01-31-2015, 03:52 PM
Is the game too fast for Grayson, or is Grayson trying to play too fast for the game? It seems that his mistake, particularly on offense, is that he is rushing too much . . . trying to make passes, shots, and drives that aren't there.

I'm not sure there's much of a difference. In my own experience, when I'm playing in a new game against players who are bigger/quicker/better than me, the game can be too fast and I rush too much in response, even when rushing isn't necessary. When I become more comfortable with the speed of the game, I'm often able to slow myself down and play with more confidence, and play much better as a result.

Edouble
01-31-2015, 04:22 PM
I'm not sure there's much of a difference. In my own experience, when I'm playing in a new game against players who are bigger/quicker/better than me, the game can be too fast and I rush too much in response, even when rushing isn't necessary. When I become more comfortable with the speed of the game, I'm often able to slow myself down and play with more confidence, and play much better as a result.

I think there is a difference. I have certainly played in games where I was competing against talent that was way out of my league. I played an alumni pick up game at my high school a few years back with some kids that had gone on to walk on at Alabama and at Virginia. They were too fast for me. I couldn't guard them when they had the ball in the triple threat position, I couldn't stay with them when they didn't have the ball. My boxouts didn't do much, as they could quickly get around them. The game was too fast for me.

Likewise, I have had an experience similar to the one you describe above. Once, playing in a soft brace about a week after I rolled my ankle, I had one of the best afternoons of pickup basketball in my life, playing against the level of competition that I usually play with. I was forced to be more deliberate, and to pick and choose my movements more carefully than I usually do. I couldn't rush and I couldn't afford to make stupid mistakes. While my abilities were at about 80% of my usual level, I played with a concentration and awareness that was probably twice as good as usual, which ended up making me better overall that day.

I think this is where Grayson is. His high school rankings and athleticism suggest that he does belong, unlike me vs. the college walk ons. Now if you put Grayson in next month's NBA All-Star game, that would probably be a situation where the game is too fast and the talent is at a level beyond his abilities. I think now, he is rushing.

That is the difference, to me.

Kedsy
01-31-2015, 04:35 PM
They were too fast for me. I couldn't guard them when they had the ball in the triple threat position, I couldn't stay with them when they didn't have the ball. My boxouts didn't do much, as they could quickly get around them. The game was too fast for me.

And in that game, when you had the ball, you didn't rush? You didn't shoot too quickly? You didn't pick up your dribble too soon or try to make too quick a pass before your teammate was entirely open? I do all that stuff when the game is too fast for me (in addition to the issues you describe).

Edouble
01-31-2015, 04:55 PM
And in that game, when you had the ball, you didn't rush? You didn't shoot too quickly? You didn't pick up your dribble too soon or try to make too quick a pass before your teammate was entirely open? I do all that stuff when the game is too fast for me (in addition to the issues you describe).

I honestly don't remember. It was a blur. I probably stopped getting touches at some point, which would have been a wise decision by my teammates.

I do see your point and there is a good chance that I did some of the things you describe.

However, for me, I think I am able to understand TruBlu's distinction between 1) the game moving too fast and 2) one moving too fast for the game.

For me, "the game moving too fast" is like the game I described. I had no place being in that game. I was significantly overmatched. The game itself was too fast because all of the players besides me were faster, stronger, more talented, and better. They created a game situation that I had never experienced before. Even with additional practice, I don't think I could ever contribute with and against players of that level. I would have to have some serious coaching from like Chip Engelland to improve the quickness of my shot release, do plyometrics at IMG to increase my vertical jumping and lateral speed, etc. Even then, I'm not sure if my motor cortex is wired to take to that kind of training.

"Moving too fast for the game", to me, is a situation where a player may be able to compete, but the game is moving, say 10-20% faster than he is used to, eg a player moving up a level, high school to college, college to pros. With practice, the player can adjust and become an effective contributor because he has a skillset and talent level that is capable, he just hasn't had to really push the envelope with what he brings to the table. In the past, he may have been able to dominate only using 75-80% of his abilities. So when he gets in this new game environment, he panics a bit and speeds things up too much and overcompensates, thinking that will solve the issue, and he ends up "moving too fast for the game".

Dukehky
01-31-2015, 05:23 PM
Could we just run the high screen Jason Williams inbound play for a dunk for Grayson? That might calm him down a bit. I think he's anxious to get that first insane throw down out of the way.

Grayson is really good at dunking, but he doesn't have crazy athleticism. He practices dunks all the time which is why he wins dunk contests. I doubt, in his 4 years of college, that he will ever dunk over anyone. If we throw an inbounds to a dunker, it's to Winslow. Grayson isn't in the same stratosphere of athlete as Winslow.

Kedsy
01-31-2015, 05:41 PM
I honestly don't remember. It was a blur. I probably stopped getting touches at some point, which would have been a wise decision by my teammates.

I do see your point and there is a good chance that I did some of the things you describe.

However, for me, I think I am able to understand TruBlu's distinction between 1) the game moving too fast and 2) one moving too fast for the game.

For me, "the game moving too fast" is like the game I described. I had no place being in that game. I was significantly overmatched. The game itself was too fast because all of the players besides me were faster, stronger, more talented, and better. They created a game situation that I had never experienced before. Even with additional practice, I don't think I could ever contribute with and against players of that level. I would have to have some serious coaching from like Chip Engelland to improve the quickness of my shot release, do plyometrics at IMG to increase my vertical jumping and lateral speed, etc. Even then, I'm not sure if my motor cortex is wired to take to that kind of training.

"Moving too fast for the game", to me, is a situation where a player may be able to compete, but the game is moving, say 10-20% faster than he is used to, eg a player moving up a level, high school to college, college to pros. With practice, the player can adjust and become an effective contributor because he has a skillset and talent level that is capable, he just hasn't had to really push the envelope with what he brings to the table. In the past, he may have been able to dominate only using 75-80% of his abilities. So when he gets in this new game environment, he panics a bit and speeds things up too much and overcompensates, thinking that will solve the issue, and he ends up "moving too fast for the game".

I see your distinction, and agree Grayson is in the second situation. My only additional comment would be that if "the game is moving, say 10-20% faster than he is used to," then the game's too fast for him, right now -- until he gets used to the speed, and then "the game slows down for him." So I think our differences here are largely semantic.