This Week in the ACC - 1/12-1/18

[pfrduke]

A week and a half into the season and we're down to two unbeatens. Virginia is no real surprise, even if they have had a tougher go of it so far - escaping Miami, getting past a game NC State team, and then knocking off Notre Dame in the Joyce. Syracuse is mildly surprising until you look at their schedule - their three wins are over Florida State, Georgia Tech, and Virginia Tech, which are a combined 1-7 and are likely to finish a collective lots of games under .500 in conference play. Amazingly enough, the Orange's schedule doesn't even really get tougher this week - home against Wake and at Clemson (combined 2-5) is not really a murderer's row.

The conference is split into 2, maybe 3, groups so far. If it's 2, there's a top 7 and bottom 8. If it's 3, 2 of the teams from the top 7 and, being very generous, 2 from the bottom 8 fall into a middle pool. The top 5 - Virginia, Duke, Louisville, UNC, and Notre Dame - would have to do something catastrophic not to make the tournament. The bottom 6 - Clemson, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, Florida State, and Boston College - would have to do something miraculous to get into the dance. In the middle, there are 4 - Syracuse, NC State, Miami, and Pitt - that have more uncertain fates. Right now, Syracuse and NC State are on the good side of the ledger and Miami and Pitt are not (I think Pitt is hanging on in this middle ground by a thread and could easily be in the "miracle" bucket).

Monday is dark

Tuesday has several good teams hosting several not as good teams. The four home teams are a collective 10-2; the four road teams are a collective 3-8. Duke has the toughest test, followed by Syracuse. Louisville and Virginia should be largely untested.

[8]Louisville hosts [183]Virginia Tech (7:00, ESPN3)
[2]Virginia hosts [121]Clemson (8:00, ESPN3)
[41]Syracuse hosts [111]Wake Forest (8:00, ESPN3)
[4]Duke hosts [74]Miami (9:00, ESPN2)

Wednesday turns the tables a bit, sending the other top teams in the conference on the road. Wednesday has two of what have become my "favorite" recent annual traditions - figuring out how NC State will fall all over itself during the UNC game, and seeing Harvard beat Boston College in Chestnut Hill (this would be 7 years running if Harvard wins).

[90]Georgia Tech hosts [14]Notre Dame (7:00, ESPN3)
[47]NC State hosts [9]North Carolina (7:00, ESPN2)
[127]Boston College hosts [51]Harvard (7:00, ESPN3)
[96]Pittsburgh hosts [136]Florida State (9:00, ESPN3)

Thursday and Friday are dark

Saturday has one of the marquee games of the conference season; a matchup of top-10 (although no longer top-5) squads in the Yum! (the exclamation point is important) Center. It's not going to be a game for #1,000 anymore, but Duke and Louisville should still be a heck of a contest. The rest of the slate is a little tepid, so once the early game gets out of the way, the rest of your Saturday will be wide open.

[8]Louisville hosts [4]Duke (12:00, ESPN)
[136]Florida State hosts [47]NC State (1:30, ESPN3)
[127]Boston College hosts [2]Virginia (2:00, ESPN3)
[14]Notre Dame hosts [74]Miami (2:00, ESPN2)
[96]Pittsburgh hosts [90]Georgia Tech (4:00, ESPN3)
[121]Clemson hosts [41]Syracuse (4:00, ESPN3)

Sunday

[9]North Carolina hosts [183]Virginia Tech (6:30, ESPNU)

ACC Non-Conference Record: 144-45
ACC Record vs. BCS: 26-26

[AIRFORCEDUKIE]

Looks like a good week of hoops, I think Virginia will get a good test at Boston College. Not that BC has any business being in that game its just a feeling. So come Saturday when the upset happens remember to give me credit for the prediction. :rolleyes:

[duketaylor]

Note: Just received an e-mail from the Iron Dukes that there are tickets for sale from the IDs at $75 for SRO seats in the bleachers if anyone's is interested.

[gumbomoop]

Tough news for Chris McCullough.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/12155692/syracuse-orange-forward-chris-mccullough-season-torn-acl

Boeheim has maybe 6-7 guys?

[CDu]

Tough news for Chris McCullough.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/12155692/syracuse-orange-forward-chris-mccullough-season-torn-acl

Boeheim has maybe 6-7 guys?

They will roll 8 deep now. Chinonso Okoboh will step into the rotation now. He is a similarly-sized though less skilled facsimile of McCullough. It is a definite blow for McCullough and the Orange, though.

[devildeac]

I fully expect <30% 3FG, <40% FG, 20 TO (maybe a few more), a double digit deficit beginning after the 1st (maybe not until the 2nd TV) TO that continues until game end and lots of underwear and bed linen changes from our Wolfpack rivals at the PNC Center in Raleigh Wednesday night this week. :mad:

[Olympic Fan]

They will roll 8 deep now. Chinonso Okoboh will step into the rotation now. He is a similarly-sized though less skilled facsimile of McCullough. It is a definite blow for McCullough and the Orange, though.

The McCullough injury is big when couple by the announcement last week that DaJuan Coleman is out for the season.

As for the State-UNC matchup, it's amazing the mental block State has against UNC.

Since 2010, they are 3-1 against Duke in PNC ... and 1-4 against UNC in their home arena.

FWIW, they can't beat either away from home -- they are 0-13 against Duke and UNC away and on neutral courts.

[devildeac]

The McCullough injury is big when couple by the announcement last week that DaJuan Coleman is out for the season.

As for the State-UNC matchup, it's amazing the mental block State has against UNC.

Since 2010, they are 3-1 against Duke in PNC ... and 1-4 against UNC in their home arena.

FWIW, they can't beat either away from home -- they are 0-13 against Duke and UNC away and on neutral courts.

1-4 vs unc? At home? Laughable.

[arnie]

1-4 vs unc? At home? Laughable.

Yeah and bet they lay another egg this week at home against the Heels.

[Duvall]

Yeah and bet they lay another egg this week at home against the Heels.

Is a bet still a bet if no one will take the other side of the action?

[Wander]

1-4 vs unc? At home? Laughable.

UNC has been better than NC State every single year for a decade straight, often far better. So I'm not sure why anyone thinks their going 1-4 against them, even at home, is particularly notable. It's maybe slightly under the number of wins you'd expect but nothing major. Probably the 3-1 home mark against us is the odder record, though I'd guess that's just a random statistics of small numbers thing.

[Duvall]

UNC has been better than NC State every single year for a decade straight, often far better. So I'm not sure why anyone thinks their going 1-4 against them, even at home, is particularly notable. It's maybe slightly under the number of wins you'd expect but nothing major. Probably the 3-1 home mark against us is the odder record, though I'd guess that's just a random statistics of small numbers thing.

Hm. Looking back at Sagarin Predictor ratings for the last five seasons, I see two years in which NCSU should have been favored against UNC at home (2010, 2013), two years in which UNC should have been favored (2011, 2012) and one year in which the game was close to a toss-up, with a slight edge to UNC (2014). So NCSU's 1-4 mark was a slight underachievement, but probably not more than that. Small numbers, as you say.

[brevity]

Yeah and bet they lay another egg this week at home against the Heels.


Is a bet still a bet if no one will take the other side of the action?

Ask Klemnop.

[pfrduke]

Louisville and Virginia should be largely untested.

So far, so good with this one - the 'ville started on a 17-2 run and it's 43-24 Cardinals at the half.

[FerryFor50]

Try to contain your shock, but so far, Miami is shooting just 28% against Notre Dame's 155th ranked defense. Angel Rodriguez is 0-3 so far.

I know it's early, but so far looking like typical post-Duke win let down is real.

[MaxAMillion]

Try to contain your shock, but so far, Miami is shooting just 28% against Notre Dame's 155th ranked defense. Angel Rodriguez is 0-3 so far.

I know it's early, but so far looking like typical post-Duke win let down is real.

They are also winning despite the shooting

[FerryFor50]

They are also winning despite the shooting

So far.

Plus, ND is missing one of their top post defenders.

We'll see how it ends up. But I'd have taken 30% shooting against Duke last game.

[FerryFor50]

So far.

Plus, ND is missing one of their top post defenders.

We'll see how it ends up. But I'd have taken 30% shooting against Duke last game.

Correction: Auguste is back.

[devildeac]

Nice job, miami. :rolleyes:

[OldPhiKap]

Good win by State.

[FerryFor50]

Nice job, miami. :rolleyes:

Angel Rodriguez: 1-10 from the field

[gumbomoop]

Up thread I wondered whether Boeheim was down to 6-7 players. It appears that was generous, as he seems to trust -- and I use that word very loosely -- only one of his bench players.

http://www.syracuse.com/orangebasketball/index.ssf/2015/01/syracuse_coach_jim_boeheim_on_clemson_loss_we_need _another_guy.html#incart_big-photo

"We need another guy" translates to "We don't have another guy."

If Syracuse played a passive, lazy zone, maybe they could survive playing 6 guys. [Well, no, I guess that isn't a survival strategy.] But presumably their zone is so good because so active. Arguably, they've exhausted themselves in the OT home win v. Wake and in yesterday's pasting at Littlejohn. Their schedule is backloaded tougher. If Boeheim is to get them to an ACC bye, he'll have to work some minor miracles.

[Olympic Fan]

Up thread I wondered whether Boeheim was down to 6-7 players. It appears that was generous, as he seems to trust -- and I use that word very loosely -- only one of his bench players.

http://www.syracuse.com/orangebasketball/index.ssf/2015/01/syracuse_coach_jim_boeheim_on_clemson_loss_we_need _another_guy.html#incart_big-photo

"We need another guy" translates to "We don't have another guy."

If Syracuse played a passive, lazy zone, maybe they could survive playing 6 guys. [Well, no, I guess that isn't a survival strategy.] But presumably their zone is so good because so active. Arguably, they've exhausted themselves in the OT home win v. Wake and in yesterday's pasting at Littlejohn. Their schedule is backloaded tougher. If Boeheim is to get them to an ACC bye, he'll have to work some minor miracles.

Agree, but I should note that Duke is going to do some work to get a bye. I know it's easy, but with almost one third of the season done, Duke currently has the No. 6 seed -- which would mean a Wednesday night game against the winner of the No. 11 vs. No. 14 game on Tuesday night.

Very important to get into the top four (and earn a bye into Thursday night's quarterfinals), but the competition for those four spots is fierce.

[gumbomoop]

Agree, but I should note that Duke is going to do some work to get a bye. I know it's easy, but with almost one third of the season done, Duke currently has the No. 6 seed -- which would mean a Wednesday night game against the winner of the No. 11 vs. No. 14 game on Tuesday night.

Very important to get into the top four (and earn a bye into Thursday night's quarterfinals), but the competition for those four spots is fierce.

Yes, you're right. I wouldn't at all have thought it at the beginning of the season, but now we have to be concerned about which teams in the top half of the conference we can finish ahead of. Syracuse has already pulled out 3 conference wins against lesser opponents. We might need to beat Syracuse both games.

[arnie]

Yes, you're right. I wouldn't at all have thought it at the beginning of the season, but now we have to be concerned about which teams in the top half of the conference we can finish ahead of. Syracuse has already pulled out 3 conference wins against lesser opponents. We might need to beat Syracuse both games.

Syracuse has only played bottom feeders so far and struggled to win. Until they win a game or two against mid or upper level ACC, I don't consider them a threat.

[Olympic Fan]

Yes, you're right. I wouldn't at all have thought it at the beginning of the season, but now we have to be concerned about which teams in the top half of the conference we can finish ahead of. Syracuse has already pulled out 3 conference wins against lesser opponents. We might need to beat Syracuse both games.

I'm not as worried about Syracuse as I am 1) Virginia; 2) Notre Dame; 3) North Carolina; 4) Miami and 5) Louisville ... Syracuse and N.C. State are long shots

We do have the tiebreaker on Louisville, although Miami and NC State have the edge on us. We get two games with Notre Dame and two with North Carolina -- just one with Virginia at their place.

I think we'll be okay at 14-4, but if we fall to 13-5 -- and that's possible with road games at UNC, Virginia, Notre Dame and Syracuse still on the schedule -- then it gets hairy.

You guys better keep that Wednesday of ACC Tournament week open for the time being.

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

Buzz's boys from Blacksburg are ba-ad.

[gumbomoop]

I'm not as worried about Syracuse as I am 1) Virginia; 2) Notre Dame; 3) North Carolina; 4) Miami and 5) Louisville ... Syracuse and N.C. State are long shots

We do have the tiebreaker on Louisville, although Miami and NC State have the edge on us. We get two games with Notre Dame and two with North Carolina -- just one with Virginia at their place.

I think we'll be okay at 14-4, but if we fall to 13-5 -- and that's possible with road games at UNC, Virginia, Notre Dame and Syracuse still on the schedule -- then it gets hairy.

You guys better keep that Wednesday of ACC Tournament week open for the time being.

My Syracuse obsession isn't. This mini thread got started just a few posts back when I commented about their utter lack of depth, and how much tougher is their backloaded schedule. My reference to our needing to beat them twice is exactly because I mostly agree with your list of the most worrying teams.

I'm not sold that Miami is a top 4-5 threat, as they seem inconsistent. I don't see their win over Duke as likely to propel them into a bye, but our loss to them certainly endangers our own prospects. Ditto for NCSt's win over us. Pack have some tough games left. Not top 4.

But UVa, UNC, ND, and UL could conceivably push Duke to Wednesday. As I look at a lower half team that could help us, I think of Clemson at Littlejohn. Unfortunately, they have but 2 home games with "bye competitors," ND and NCSt. Not much help there, but maybe just a little.

GT at home v. any of NCSt, UL, UNC? Well, unlikely they'll help by beating Cards or Heels.

Wake at home to UNC or UVa? Well, interestingly, they have a week layoff before hosting each of those 2. Not clear whether that's advantage or disadvantage, but here's hoping.

Ah, Pitt home to UL, ND, Cuse, UNC. Go Pitt, after tomorrow night.

Generally, it appears to me that we have a very tough road, the toughest remaining schedule. Have to play superbly to get #1-2, and very well to get 3-4. Your warning is pessimistic-realistic.