MBB: NCSU 87, Duke 75 Post-Game Thread

[hurleyfor3]

We barfed in the gutter.

[Bob Green]

I have to admit I didn't see that coming. I underestimated the Wolfies.

[ChrisP]

My god, looking at the scene on TV after the game, you'd think State just won another National Championship! It's a mark of respect, I know, but...umm...wow.

State deserved it, though. They played MUCH smarter and ultimately, harder than we did. I HATE HATE HATE it when people say, "Oh, they wanted it more" but today that was certainly the truth!

Not sure what's up with our D, but no way we win it all this year without significant improvement on that end of the floor. And, if we play defense like today, I don't know that we make it to the elite 8.

[Leelee902]

Whew, two rough outings back to back. Fortunate to not be 1-2 in acc play. Need a better game plan against the double teams. And more even officiating would be nice.

UVA looking like best team around right now...

[uh_no]

My god, looking at the scene on TV after the game, you'd think State just won another National Championship! It's a mark of respect, I know, but...umm...wow.

State deserved it, though. They played MUCH smarter and ultimately, harder than we did. I HATE HATE HATE it when people say, "Oh, they wanted it more" but today that was certainly the truth!

Not sure what's up with our D, but no way we win it all this year without significant improvement on that end of the floor. And, if we play defense like today, I don't know that we make it to the elite 8.

significant portions of bad D against BC, along with poor defense against elon and a couple other recent opponents. It's enough for me to call it a trend. and one that best get fixed quickly....

[OldPhiKap]

Congrats, Wolfpack. They clearly deserved and earned the win.

[Duvall]

And, if we play defense like today, I don't know that we make it to the elite 8.

Technically true, but awfully optimistic.

[weezie]

Well OK. Our team is very young. Talented sure but...

They'll work a lot harder now, no doubt.

Next !

[cptnflash]

We were due for a game like this. Gasaway made the point weeks ago that our defensive improvement was due in part to our opponents shooting an unsustainably low percentage from 3. Today's outcome will even up the scales a little bit.

http://insider.espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/11924251/the-duke-blue-devils-undefeated-vulnerable-plus-other-early-takeaways-college-basketball

We've now made it VERY hard on ourselves in terms of winning the league and getting a #1 seed. Seems unlikely that two #1's will come out of the ACC, so we may need Virginia to help us out a bit by dropping a couple games that they should win. Unfortunate that we don't get them in Cameron this year.

[CR9]

Duke needs to move the ball much faster, especially Jahlil but when he gets doubled no one comes to the ball. Everyone just stands and waits for him to find someone. Duke made NCST look much better than they are through their own poor play and especially coaching.

[WakeDevil]

Block out first. Rebound second. A foreign concept to some.

[weezie]

Anyone have any T Jones theories?

[Duvall]

Block out first. Rebound second. A foreign concept to some.

Rebounding was the least of Duke's problems today.

[DRC]

Welcome to the ACC and this was definitely the Wolfpack's day. Duke showed good effort at the end but it was too late and the Wolfpack was just too strong. They were clearly the better team and their shooting and defense was superb. I think this young Duke team needed this in order to prepare for what lies ahead. This is the ACC!! I see this as a great learning experience and we'll move forward.

[Native]

We've been trending down since the big win at Wisconsin.

Time to wake up.

[lotusland]

I've decided I don't like Winslow at 4. We need Amile at 4 for Defense. Gotta find a way to hurt them for doubling Jah off Amile but I''d rather have the added size.

[jipops]

State's next game should be significantly more difficult playing against an actual defense.

[gcashwell]

All of our schemes were wrong. And we didn't change our tactics. Very disappointing to watch the same plays not work on offense or defense for forty minutes.

[hurleyfor3]

State's next game should be significantly more difficult playing against an actual defense.

[checks ncsu's schedule]

I see what you did there.

[Duvall]

State's next game should be significantly more difficult playing against an actual defense.

Their traditional vomiting all over themselves will also present an obstacle.

[DevilWearsPrada]

K on post game, said We had no Defense today. Get tougher. Duke is a young group. You have to beat a team when they are playing well.
State scored inside and out.
State's big gave the wuffies a big push and Duke could not cover Lacey or Turner.
When State gets ball and its difficult.
With young team, and 14-0 seems easier. And team did not do what they needed to today.

Those were Coach K's comments with John Roth in the Locker Room.

Of course, K congratulated NcState on the win. Staying Classy as always.

[WakeDevil]

Rebounding was the least of Duke's problems today.

Twice after Duke had cut the deficit to single digits, the defense allowed someone to swoop in and lay it in.

[CR9]

I've decided I don't like Winslow at 4. We need Amile at 4 for Defense. Gotta find a way to hurt them for doubling Jah off Amile but I''d rather have the added size.

It's honestly a headache because I'm sure K has noticed what everyone has noticed and that is teams will let Amile have the ball 18 feet from the basketball because he isn't a threat to create on his own. Having Jones extends the D somewhat but if shots don't fall then that swap is pointless because now you have another shooter, yes but also one less rebounder and Amile is an outstanding O-rebounder. It's something K needs to sort out. This is where not having Murphy or Semi hurts because they are threats that far from the basket and means defenses have to respect them instead of focusing almost solely on Jah.

[mgtr]

I was not going to say a thing when we were 14-0, but this was bound to happen. We are not as good as we thought we were. Jah needs some serious coaching to make a move instantly to avoid double teams. We need a few plays that don't involve trying to get the ball to Jah. We need Amile to take some outside shots, whether or not they go in. We need some 10-12 foot shooting to avoid blocked shots.
Wow -- I guess I ought to hire myself out as the answer man! Coach K has been down this road before, and I believe he will get it all figured out.

[lotusland]

I'm going to have to re-examine all of my spectating schemes. This weekend has been a big wake up call.

[NashvilleDevil]

I thought that a loss was coming if not to State than certainly Louisville. I did go back and read this thread (http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?19000-MBB-NC-State-88-Duke-74-Post-Game-Thread) from 5 years ago. Let us hope that the end of season results following a loss to State are identical.

[lotusland]

I was not going to say a thing when we were 14-0, but this was bound to happen. We are not as good as we thought we were. Jah needs some serious coaching to make a move instantly to avoid double teams. We need a few plays that don't involve trying to get the ball to Jah. We need Amile to take some outside shots, whether or not they go in. We need some 10-12 foot shooting to avoid blocked shots.
Wow -- I guess I ought to hire myself out as the answer man! Coach K has been down this road before, and I believe he will get it all figured out.

I thought Jah needed to shot fake?

[Duvall]

Twice after Duke had cut the deficit to single digits, the defense allowed someone to swoop in and lay it in.

That's great. That's two out of 70 possessions.

[Ima Facultiwyfe]

It's all practice until March. This was bound to happen. I'm glad it was State that did it and glad it happened early. Now then, let's hope the Woofies don't end up thinking they are better than they are and come out flat against the cheaters. I worry that we've set them up for it.

Stay real State. Buckle down Duke.
Love, Ima

PS You're still the guys I'd rather have on the bus ride home.

[Leelee902]

I wonder if Matt jones will start again? I personally value Amile over Matt although I know in late game situations this year we have done well with small ball. Maybe keep it in our pocket until then, though. Seems like can't do too much with a game so soon on Tues. After that, should be an important week of practice.

Furthermore, the type of defense we have attempted the past few yrs has not been overly successful. It was at least decent with seniors plumlee, Kelly, and curry. Otherwise, it has only seemed to have flashes of effectiveness. Maybe I am being pessimistic after a bad loss, but looking at other teams' defenses I sometimes become envious. I would love us to attempt a sort of pack line man-to-man, which has worked well for many teams in college recently, but I guess it's not in the cards. Our offense has been overwhelming to overlook it for a lot of this year.

Native made a great point about our mojo since the Wisky game... I want it back!

[fuse]

I expected State to play tough, and they did.
The only thing that makes it worse is State gets UNC next, so we gift wrapped a post Duke victory letdown loss for State to UNC.

Looked for a while like we had given up, and then decided to claw our way back in to the game.

I did not expect us to go undefeated. I do expect one loss per freshman starter- one down, two to go.

I am starting to notice a bit of a playground vibe with Justice and Jahlil, and expect some technicals in their future.

Woofing was pretty audible on TV, including "Get that outa here" from Jahlil on his block.
Wondering if it is not "Jah" but "Jaw"?

Early season spoiled me- I thought we'd cruise through the regular season until the Wake game.
I suspect road games will not be kind to us this year.

Glass is still way more than half full, and I trust some good teaching points will come out of this game.
Time for the team to adjust and get better.

[uh_no]

duke's defense dropped off the face of the earth, from 10th to 36th in the country, and their offense dropped to second.

as if we needed any more confirmation that this was a really bad showing.

[dukelifer]

duke's defense dropped off the face of the earth, from 10th to 36th in the country, and their offense dropped to second.

as if we needed any more confirmation that this was a really bad showing.

It is all about the D. The problem is that this is a multi year trend now. It used to be the hallmark- now it is not. But want to peak in March. This team has the ability to make a run. Just need to be in the right mind frame to do it. You need to play great D always.

[uh_no]

It is all about the D. The problem is that this is a multi year trend now. It used to be the hallmark- now it is not. But want to peak in March. This team has the ability to make a run. Just need to be in the right mind frame to do it. You need to play great D always.

yep. I'm not saying the sky is falling....but if the performances are like this consistently, we're looking at another earlier than expected exit. more chances to prove that this is not a clone of last year's team on the less glamorous side of the floor come up for the rest of the season....

[grossbus]

Need to face the reality that Matt jones is not a good shooter. From any distance.

[ChillinDuke]

It wasn't a good game for us. Defense wasn't good at all.

But we started fairly well, and we didn't fold when it hit 19.

It's a loss. Losses happen.

It's not hard to reremember other losses in recent years far worse than this one.

We'll continue to work. I hope.

- Chillin

[COYS]

yep. I'm not saying the sky is falling....but if the performances are like this consistently, we're looking at another earlier than expected exit. more chances to prove that this is not a clone of last year's team on the less glamorous side of the floor come up for the rest of the season....

The trend isn't good, but 62.5% from three by state is also an aberration.

[indy1duke]

Congratulations to State. Duke was thoroughly outplayed, shot very poorly and was outcoached. I don't know the names of the refs, but it felt unfairly called -- maybe the most one-sided since we lost to uconn in San Antonio. The phantom travels, the goaltending on a blocked shot, the innumerable fouls by State that were not called all combined to provide a sense of good home cooking. Maybe if we made our open threes we could have been competitive notwithstanding; however, it was not meant to be. I hope this loss speeds up the learning process for our young team. Bitter and angry.

[ChrisP]

It is all about the D. The problem is that this is a multi year trend now. It used to be the hallmark- now it is not. But want to peak in March. This team has the ability to make a run. Just need to be in the right mind frame to do it. You need to play great D always.

Good point about poor defense being a multi-year trend. I have to believe that it's at least partly attributable to the fact that we are firmly in the dreaded "one and done" era. Our best players are often - if not most of the time - NOT upperclassmen and thus, we just don't seem to have the familiarity/continuity we need to be a truly great defensive team.

Yes, I realize that our D was much better earlier in the year and perhaps I'm assigning causality to something I shouldn't but...the team's slide on D did seem to begin once Semi departed. I know he didn't see a lot of minutes in games, but I wonder if not having a guy like that to practice against has hurt this team. As soon as I heard he was transferring, I immediately thought "uh oh" because it seemed that, through the Wisconsin game, this team had really good chemistry and was playing very well. Less so since then, unfortunately. Here's to hoping today leads to growth and improvement!

[uh_no]

The trend isn't good, but 62.5% from three by state is also an aberration.

no doubt. need to rewatch and judge 3 point shot openness more objectively...but they could have shot 6/156 and still won....still a good shooting night, but the high 3 point percentage was certainly not the only thing to go horribly wrong tonight.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I expected State to play tough, and they did.
The only thing that makes it worse is State gets UNC next, so we gift wrapped a post Duke victory letdown loss for State to UNC.

Looked for a while like we had given up, and then decided to claw our way back in to the game.

I did not expect us to go undefeated. I do expect one loss per freshman starter- one down, two to go.

I am starting to notice a bit of a playground vibe with Justice and Jahlil, and expect some technicals in their future.

Woofing was pretty audible on TV, including "Get that outa here" from Jahlil on his block.
Wondering if it is not "Jah" but "Jaw"?

Early season spoiled me- I thought we'd cruise through the regular season until the Wake game.
I suspect road games will not be kind to us this year.

Glass is still way more than half full, and I trust some good teaching points will come out of this game.
Time for the team to adjust and get better.

I am happy to see some edge from Jah. We could use a little more nasty.

[freshmanjs]

Bitter and angry.

Following sports should be fun. Otherwise, it's not worth the time. I understand investing emotionally and getting frustrated by a loss. But bitter and angry over a conference road loss when your team is 14-1?

[weezie]

Where's the MOTM?

[Duvall]

Need to face the reality that Matt jones is not a good shooter. From any distance.

Okay, but that was a much less significant factor than Duke's defensive implosion today.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Okay, but that was a much less significant factor than Duke's defensive implosion today.

We lost our composure for about 14 minutes. No one to blame but our guys for getting frustrated.

[brevity]

Where's the MOTM?

Still celebrating in Raleigh, I'd imagine.

[sagegrouse]

Two observations:

We lost in part because we were out-shot by State, 55 percent to 37 percent -- and more if "effective" FG pct. is calculated. This is a measure of our poor defense, but also of State's really good shooting. If the Pack shoot 6-16 instead of 10-16 from 3-point range, it's a different game. Duke was 7-27 from beyond the arc, and these were mostly decent shots. It looked a bit like panic to me by a very young team.

Therefore, can we rename PNC Arena PaNiC Arena, for whenever Duke plays there? This is three straight losses -- State, Mercer, State -- and they were all ugly.

Too bad -- we'll get 'em next time,
Sage
'BTW, Jah, who appeared stymied most of the afternoon, was still 8-11 from the floor. Without him, our shooting is below 30 percent'

[Duke3517]

Didn't get to watch the game, looking at the box score is it time for Sheed to start over Jones? This is the time of the year when freshmen aren't used to the demands of how much is on them. Duke has real mature young men on their team and I expect them to get back to the swing of things.

Kentucky is close to it's first loss too.

One positive I will say is I'm glad Duke is not playing their best right now, hopefully they peak in March/April.

[uh_no]

Following sports should be fun. Otherwise, it's not worth the time. I understand investing emotionally and getting frustrated by a loss. But bitter and angry over a conference road loss when your team is 14-1?

Minor contention: sports is about feeling emotions of success and defeat, joy and failure. Most people don't compete on a daily basis, and thus aren't exposed to those emotions....by attaching yourselves to a team you can feel those emotions. Of course it's more fun to not feel defeat....but without defeat the winning feels oh so hollow

"What we obtain too cheap, we esteem too lightly" -Paine

For some people, yeah I'm sure it's just about fun....but I'd argue for many it's about a whole gamut of emotion.

[SupaDave]

Good point about poor defense being a multi-year trend. I have to believe that it's at least partly attributable to the fact that we are firmly in the dreaded "one and done" era. Our best players are often - if not most of the time - NOT upperclassmen and thus, we just don't seem to have the familiarity/continuity we need to be a truly great defensive team.

Yes, I realize that our D was much better earlier in the year and perhaps I'm assigning causality to something I shouldn't but...the team's slide on D did seem to begin once Semi departed. I know he didn't see a lot of minutes in games, but I wonder if not having a guy like that to practice against has hurt this team. As soon as I heard he was transferring, I immediately thought "uh oh" because it seemed that, through the Wisconsin game, this team had really good chemistry and was playing very well. Less so since then, unfortunately. Here's to hoping today leads to growth and improvement!

There is quite a bit of validity to this. When you have seniors and juniors on the floor who have been playing together for 3 plus years you don't have to yell out certain things or wonder if someone is doing something. Tyus Jones came in during the second half and showed just what can happen to a freshmen during an ACC struggle. Poor pass for a steal and layup and then a defensive lapse the very next play. Gonna be hard to fit in 2 years worth of ACC games in the next couple practices.

[freshmanjs]

There is quite a bit of validity to this. When you have seniors and juniors on the floor who have been playing together for 3 plus years you don't have to yell out certain things or wonder if someone is doing something. Tyus Jones came in during the second half and showed just what can happen to a freshmen during an ACC struggle. Poor pass for a steal and layup and then a defensive lapse the very next play. Gonna be hard to fit in 2 years worth of ACC games in the next couple practices.

Then why is KY playing the best defense of any team in the last 15+ years?

[CDu]

Our PG play and especially our defense have been bad the last few games. Looks like we finally found a team able to make us pay for it.

Tyus Jones and Okafor seemed to have numerous brain farts on defense, leaving someone wide open in the lane. They weren't alone in struggling on that end, but their errors were the most glaring.

We have a bit of a quandary right now at the fifth spot on the floor iffensively. We have strength at C and at both guard spots. Winslow is usually a plus at SF (though not today). But the rotation of Jefferson and Jones is a liability on offense right now. Jefferson is afraid to shoot, and right now Jones can't hit his shots. It is a tough position to be in because it results in the ability to double Okafor without much penalty. Hopefully we can figure out how to get them going.

Strong game by Okafor offensively again. Strong shooting by Cook again. Strong defensive rebounding by Jefferson. Strong first half by Sulaimon. And I like that we didn't completely quit down 19. But that is all I can say positively about us today.

I will add that I am concerned with our championship chances if we are playing just 1.5 big guys. Either Plumlee is going to have to figure out how to play a bigger role or Jefferson is going to have to command more minutes. If we are playing 15-20 mpg with Winslow at the PF spot, I think we will have trouble getting where we want to go.

Hopefully this loss spurs our team to regain focus. It was a poor effort, and wasn't terribly out of line with our past few games. Hopefully we can learn from this, and hopefully we will be able yo look back and say this was a loss that helped us turn it up a notch the rest of the way. Still a lot of time for progress.

[CDu]

Then why is KY playing the best defense of any team in the last 15+ years?

Simple scheme, great size/length/athleticism, and not having faced really good offenses yet. You can get away with youth when you have the kind of size and athleticism they have.

[newclasspack]

great game guys just got home from it. you guys played hard regardless of the score and classy as always. stay that way.

[Saratoga2]

Wake set the blueprint for defending Duke. Double Jahlil and make the others beat you, mainly from outside. It is hard to get a lot of points when you have two big bodies on you. I thought Jahlil did about all that could be expected of him offensively, except maybe from being a little quicker with his moves. The fact is that we really only have one three point shooter in Quinn and he has to get his shot off through guile since his stature is on the smaller side. We tried to get inside often but mainly were blocked and it was clear we weren't going to get calls after the first bunch of rejections. They had size and athleticism and we had a lot of trouble getting good shots off. Sheed was determined to get inside but he gets a little out of control and his inside moves were not working. Quinn, Justise, Matt and even Tyus tried and it seldom worked for anyone.

On defense, we start 2 smallish guards who are going to have trouble defending large athletic guards. This has been the case for several years and we continue along that vane. NC State was shooting very well, partly due to good matchups and partly due to the quality of their shooters. Inside we were outsized by the number of athletic and active players they could throw at us plus we also tried helping leaving guys wide open underneath.

I too thought it would have been nice to have a big athletic inside player to compete with what they brought. MP3 is big and athletic but doesn't get it done against what they brought. Semi might have done fairly well but didn't get enough PT for me to judge his ability. You have to believe the coaches didn't see enough.

I am not one who believes if we just try harder we could have overcome our issues. People have seen how to beat us and we can expect to see a lot more of the same thrown against us. This team does have a lot of talent and does work hard but clearly we can be beaten and even overwhelmed as it appeared to me were today. It will be interesting to see what the coaches can come up with to make us more competitive in this kind of game.

[SupaDave]

Simple scheme, great size/length/athleticism, and not having faced really good offenses yet. You can get away with youth when you have the kind of size and athleticism they have.

Don't forget all the overtimes they use to pad their stats. :p

[jgehtland]

Was at the game. First of all, was pretty depressed when we were down 19 and it looked like the freight train was in full swing. Super encouraged by an 11-0 run to make it competitive. The fear in the building was palpable.

Out of our 27 three-point attempts, I can only think of 2 that were closely guarded. They were good shots; we just missed them. Of their 16 three-point attempts, I can't think of a single one that wasn't excellently guarded. Lacey and Turner were just LIGHTS OUT. No rim, nothing but net. Take away two of theirs and give us 2 of ours and the game is, well, its a tie if you don't imagine any other changes.

Second, when teams double team Jah, we get an open three. When we double team other teams, they get a dunk. I know that 3>2, but eventually, 100% > 25%. Got to figure out how to maybe get somebody to flash to the rim during those doubles instead of the wing.

Third, there was a possession where we were down 8 and we had two threes rim out, then Okafor was gang-tackled (no call). We got the ball out of bounds and missed again. If either of those 3s dropped, the crowd would have gone into panic mode. Unfortunate that neither did.

Oh, and several State fans said after the game: "I'm going to take it all the way to the bank, but you guys got robbed by the refs." More than one, not just the ones I am close friends with.

Best part of being there? The pure joy of the Pack at the void left by Karl Hess, may the door not hit him on the way out.

[weezie]

Good stuff jgehtland.

Maybe it's my fault due to my fan identity: Devils, Det Tigers, Det Lions.... some sad co-inky-dinks there

[jipops]

Of note, the 2010 title team lost at State by 14.

[Furniture]

exactly. It's just part of the same plan...

[Neals384]

Was at the game. First of all, was pretty depressed when we were down 19 and it looked like the freight train was in full swing. Super encouraged by an 11-0 run to make it competitive. The fear in the building was palpable.

Out of our 27 three-point attempts, I can only think of 2 that were closely guarded. They were good shots; we just missed them. Of their 16 three-point attempts, I can't think of a single one that wasn't excellently guarded. Lacey and Turner were just LIGHTS OUT. No rim, nothing but net. Take away two of theirs and give us 2 of ours and the game is, well, its a tie if you don't imagine any other changes.

Second, when teams double team Jah, we get an open three. When we double team other teams, they get a dunk. I know that 3>2, but eventually, 100% > 25%. Got to figure out how to maybe get somebody to flash to the rim during those doubles instead of the wing.

Third, there was a possession where we were down 8 and we had two threes rim out, then Okafor was gang-tackled (no call). We got the ball out of bounds and missed again. If either of those 3s dropped, the crowd would have gone into panic mode. Unfortunate that neither did.

Oh, and several State fans said after the game: "I'm going to take it all the way to the bank, but you guys got robbed by the refs." More than one, not just the ones I am close friends with.

Best part of being there? The pure joy of the Pack at the void left by Karl Hess, may the door not hit him on the way out.

This. My glass is half full. Yes, State got lots of open dunks and putbacks, but they also hit an incredible number of closely guarded jumpers. There aren't going to be many teams that will put everything together the way State did today.

[NashvilleDevil]

Of note, the 2010 title team lost at State by 14.

By almost the identical score too.

[Bay Area Duke Fan]

Maybe it was a mistake to start Matt Jones instead of Amile.

Or maybe it was the black uniforms.

[Karl Beem]

Then why is KY playing the best defense of any team in the last 15+ years?

Great size and playing bad teams. TAMU was missing their best player and shot 33%, 13% and missed 14 FTS. Their coach committed several brain farts.

[Karl Beem]

Maybe it was a mistake to start Matt Jones instead of Amile.

Or maybe it was the black uniforms.

No idea why K has this love affair with Matt. Replacing a better and taller player with a shorter one didn't work.

[freshmanjs]

playing bad teams.

not buying it. look at sos on kenpom. ky's schedule has been tougher than duke's. tamu and mississippi are not materially worse than wake and ncsu (and may be better).

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

great game guys just got home from it. you guys played hard regardless of the score and classy as always. stay that way.

Congrats, you guys earned it.

[Duvall]

not buying it. look at sos on kenpom. ky's schedule has been tougher than duke's. tamu and mississippi are not materially worse than wake and ncsu (and may be better).

Duke has also played a lot of bad teams. It's going to hurt them on Selection Sunday.

[KenTankerous]

Here is my post to a local sports thread when Chapel Hill beat Louisville, apropos, apropos:

... The ACC is a REAL conference. True, the Big East was a beast, a fine flash in the pan success for a couple of years, but the ACC is and has been true hard core basketball competition, top to bottom, for many years.

Welcome to the bigs, Cards fans. Get used to getting your I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this. handed to you several times during conference play.

And learn 9F 9F 9F.

...

Losses are a good thing this time of year. Especially with freshman loaded squads. It's a good thing it was to State and not at the Yum.

[lotusland]

This. My glass is half full. Yes, State got lots of open dunks and putbacks, but they also hit an incredible number of closely guarded jumpers. There aren't going to be many teams that will put everything together the way State did today.

I thought they did a great job protecting them rim with 10 blocks to Duke's 4 as well as forcing a lot of difficult shots. We gpt a few chippies to start the game but not much thereafter.

[OldPhiKap]

great game guys just got home from it. you guys played hard regardless of the score and classy as always. stay that way.

Congratulations on a great game, and appreciate the good sportsmanship before and after.

Stomp the heels, please.

[NashvilleDevil]

Duke has also played a lot of bad teams. It's going to hurt them on Selection Sunday.

If they lose a few more times it will and other teams are going to lose as well.

[Duvall]

If they lose a few more times it will and other teams are going to lose as well.

Looking at the schedules of Arizona, Gonzaga, Wisconsin and Kentucky, I'm not sure they are. Lose much, anyway.

[6th Man]

No idea why K has this love affair with Matt. Replacing a better and taller player with a shorter one didn't work.

It was interesting to me that after going 14-0 we would make a line-up change. Of course I have full faith in Coach, but I'd love to hear his take on it.

[NashvilleDevil]

Looking at the schedules of Arizona, Gonzaga, Wisconsin and Kentucky, I'm not sure they are. Lose much, anyway.

And how many losses do you think Duke ends up with before the tourney? More or less than 8?

[freshmanjs]

It was interesting to me that after going 14-0 we would make a line-up change. Of course I have full faith in Coach, but I'd love to hear his take on it.

coach k addressed it in the postgame press conference. he said

- that we are not down on amile or anything
- thought that putting matt instead of a shorter guard on lacey would be effective.
- but, then amile played well
- gotta keep looking at different things.

[azzefkram]

Well that was disappointing. I like their attempt to claw their way back into the game. Unfortunately that's about all I liked. State hit some tough shots but the D was pretty weak especially on the interior. Matt for Amile is not a swap that I am in favor of. Matt is a good defender but by no stretch of the imagination a shut down one. Whatever benefit he may provide on the perimeter is given back by poor interior D and significantly weakened rebounding. Heck I even prefer Amile's O as limited as it is since he does a really good job of cleaning up some misses.

Speaking of O, I had a horrible sense of deja vu watching our O today. It seemed like there was an awful lot of ball stoppage. Some of that falls on the guys not moving effectively without the ball, but a good chunk rests on Jah's shoulders for holding on to the ball too long. Sheed was unfortunately more famine than feast today. A couple of his hero ball moves led to some highly unfavorable point swings. I miss the ball movement we seemed to have earlier in the season.

I, for one, will not dwell on this loss and look forward to a better effort on Tuesday.

[grossbus]

"Stomp the heels, please."

Don't hold your breath. They never play as well against them as they do against us.

[Duvall]

And how many losses do you think Duke ends up with before the tourney? More or less than 8?

Pomeroy projects five or six, which seems plausible. But Duke has six road games left against teams better than NC State - much better - in addition to three home games. It's going to be tough.

[Mudge]

Duke needs to move the ball much faster, especially Jahlil but when he gets doubled no one comes to the ball. Everyone just stands and waits for him to find someone. Duke made NCST look much better than they are through their own poor play and especially coaching.

Not really much for paraphrasing Jim Rome, but "Duke, feel free to mix in a mid-range jumper, or a teardrop floater"... gonna see even more contested shots at the rim, if Duke ever does meet Kentucky this year... Coach K needs to stop trying to find ways to go small/play 3 guards, and start figuring out how to have a 6'11" center play with a 6'9" forward (a McDonald's All-American, who by his 3rd year at Duke, should have been coached/figured out how to have a post-up game, or at least some kind of de novo offense, other than putbacks off of other people's misses-- when is this guy going to show a jumper from the edge of the paint out to the foul line?), and a 6'6" forward-- if Duke can't play those guys together, along with a bigger guard, they have little chance of matching up with a team like Kentucky...

[Dukehky]

01-09-2015, 12:10 PM #6

Scary game.

I think there is a better chance of Duke losing to State than at Louisville to be perfectly honest. We'll see.

Called it.

They hit impossible 3's which frustrated us and our defensive intensity dropped because of it. We'll learn from it and be okay.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

And how many losses do you think Duke ends up with before the tourney? More or less than 8?

8 losses would put us near .500 in conference play. Are we really at that level of panic as the number two team in the nation that just suffered our first loss in 15 games?

[Kfanarmy]

1st game I haven't seen any part of this year....Glad I missed it.

[DukieInBrasil]

There were a few things that really stood out to me:
- Jahlil spending way too much time with the ball, him dribbling out of the double team and then around to the top of the key is not a good way to use our possession. That may have been due to lack of motion by other players.
- SOOOOOO many blocked shots. I could see most of them coming, and it was really frustrating to watch our players try the same thing time and again only to get swatted again.
- Several steals from our guards just being too lazy when passing the ball. That was egregious and truly poor basketball.
- Mysterious disappearing act from Tyus. That was the first game where i thought his overall play was poor.
- Starting Matt Jones was a huge mistake, and the small lineup with Justise at the 4 is not a particularly great look for us.
- Sate shot out of their minds from 3 for most of the game. I didn't think (m)any of their 3s were particularly wide open, it seemed like we had a guy either in their grill or at least in their area and they still made em. Just gotta tip yer cap.

About 8 minutes into the second half, after State had made their 4th or 5th ridiculous 3 in a row, i thought to myself "how are we only down 5 points"? well, it didn't take long for that to balloon out. Well at least our guys got some composure back and avoided losing by 20, which it looked like was gonna happen.

[Bay Area Duke Fan]

1st game I haven't seen any part of this year....Glad I missed it.

If you didn't see it, it didn't happen?

[-jk]

As Al McGuire said, "The best thing about Freshmen is they..." <sigh> Next play...

-jk

[Wander]

Did you guys all think we were going to go undefeated?

[Duvall]

Did you guys all think we were going to go undefeated?

Against non-top 50 opponents? I kind of hoped, yeah.

[arnie]

1st game I haven't seen any part of this year....Glad I missed it.

You missed the two Jones, Winslow and Sheed miss 30 out of 39 shots against an average D. Quinn is the only shooter that seems to know which shots to take and can close the deal. Yes our D wasn't very good either, but I'm concerned our shooting isn't up to the norm for Duke teams. Next two games should prove a lot and we gotta take out Miami early.

[OldPhiKap]

Did you guys all think we were going to go undefeated?


Against non-top 50 opponents? I kind of hoped, yeah.

Unfortunately, conference road games do not always work that conveniently. Especially starting three freshmen.

[Wander]

Against non-top 50 opponents? I kind of hoped, yeah.

Fair enough, but even setting aside that NC State is currently #48 and 3-1 in the ACC, losing to a non-top 50 opponent is a fairly common thing to happen to a Final Four and even National Championship winning team, including, of course, 2010 Duke to NC State. I mean I'm not going to spin this as a good performance and the defense does need to improve, but, eh.

[FerryFor50]

01-09-2015, 12:10 PM #6

Scary game.

I think there is a better chance of Duke losing to State than at Louisville to be perfectly honest. We'll see.

Called it.

They hit impossible 3's which frustrated us and our defensive intensity dropped because of it. We'll learn from it and be okay.

Yea, they were pretty unconscious from 3. A lot of those shots were defended decently well, but still fell for them.

Also, they were hitting the glass pretty well and getting 2nd chance points.

When Beejay Anya is hitting left and right hand hook shots over Jahlil Okafor, it's not your night.

These things happen. Hopefully the team learns from it. I think K was pretty calm during the game and was just letting them take the beating to see how they'd respond. I felt that when they went down 19 and started pressing on D, they played pretty well. Showed a lot of fight down the stretch to make it a little more respectable.

Next play.

[FerryFor50]

Oh, and several State fans said after the game: "I'm going to take it all the way to the bank, but you guys got robbed by the refs." More than one, not just the ones I am close friends with.


Impressive that you got a State fan to admit that. Do you have incriminating photos of them or something?

[-bdbd]

And how many losses do you think Duke ends up with before the tourney? More or less than 8?


Kinda funny that 24 hours ago many Duke fans were openly wondering if we could go undefeated. Now, after our first loss of the year, we're asking/projecting an over/under of eight??!

Wow. That's quite a swing after one game....

;)

[FerryFor50]

Kinda funny that 24 hours ago many Duke fans were openly wondering if we could go undefeated. Now, after our first loss of the year, we're asking/projecting an over/under of eight??!

Wow. That's quite a swing after one game....

Well the posts about 8 losses are all road posts. The undefeated posts were from Cameron.

[UrinalCake]

The last two games have pretty much showed the world how to defend Oak. Double team from the weak side and have the remaining three guys cover the passing lanes. Until we figure out a way to beat this, opponents are going to continue to use this strategy. I know Oak scored a lot of points, but he had to work really hard to get those points, he dominated the ball and prevented others from getting into any kind of rhythm.

We really haven't played that well since the Wisconsin game. I didn't like starting Matt over Amile, but I understand the need to make a change as we need another scoring threat at the 4.

Positive takeaways from the game are hard to come by, but I'll mention fighting to get the deficit to single-digits late, lots of coaching moments to draw on, and free throw shooting.

[Dukehky]

The last two games have pretty much showed the world how to defend Oak. Double team from the weak side and have the remaining three guys cover the passing lanes. Until we figure out a way to beat this, opponents are going to continue to use this strategy. I know Oak scored a lot of points, but he had to work really hard to get those points, he dominated the ball and prevented others from getting into any kind of rhythm.

We really haven't played that well since the Wisconsin game. I didn't like starting Matt over Amile, but I understand the need to make a change as we need another scoring threat at the 4.

Positive takeaways from the game are hard to come by, but I'll mention fighting to get the deficit to single-digits late, lots of coaching moments to draw on, and free throw shooting.

Oh my GOD and free throw shooting!

[uh_no]

Remember the beating that georgetown put on duke in 2010 in front of obama? That season turned out fine and as long as Dukes young guns learn from this, 2015 could also end with duke on top This is an honest question, but does anyone know what the LOWEST duke's defense was ranked in 2010? I'm guessing it wasn't 36....but would be interesting to know


Again its january and these things happen.
And we said that last year....and then january became february became march.


One game is an aberration....multiple games over a month is a trend. This performance didn't come out of nowhere. It started with a poor defensive performance against elon, we saw 30 minutes of bad defense against BC.

We can and must get better....there's no two ways about it. Winning the tournament on offense alone is very VERY hard...the pressure to have to outscore your own mediocre defense is a lot for six games. It's no accident that the most previous champions defensive rankings were (final...because i don't feel like digging through the csv):

10
3
8
13
8
21
1

duke's at 36 right now.

I see comments like "well, duke gets everyone's best shot," and yeah, that might be true...but it's not an excuse....because you know what we'll get in the tournament? everyone's best shot. So if we can't deal with it now, why should we expect to deal with it later?

Anyway. Is the sky falling? no. Do i see a negative trend? yep. Can these games be disregarded if duke reverts to playing at a high level? yep. Will i be even more worried if we give up over 1 ppp to miami on tuesday? yep.

Lets go duke. lets get some floor slappin action goin.

[COYS]

no doubt. need to rewatch and judge 3 point shot openness more objectively...but they could have shot 6/156 and still won....still a good shooting night, but the high 3 point percentage was certainly not the only thing to go horribly wrong tonight.

Completely agree that three point shooting wasn't the only thing to go wrong. But it was the reason we dropped so precipitously in KenPom. We lose this game either way, but their above average shooting from range, including hitting a few well defended threes, made it particularly ugly.

At any rate, I share your concern about our defense overall. I'm going to rewatched a little, too, in hopes of gleaning some more insights. I'll go ahead and say that I am not a fan of diminished minutes for Amile, though.

[freshmanjs]

This is an honest question, but does anyone know what the LOWEST duke's defense was ranked in 2010? I'm guessing it wasn't 36....but would be interesting to know


And we said that last year....and then january became february became march.


One game is an aberration....multiple games over a month is a trend. This performance didn't come out of nowhere. It started with a poor defensive performance against elon, we saw 30 minutes of bad defense against BC.

We can and must get better....there's no two ways about it. Winning the tournament on offense alone is very VERY hard...the pressure to have to outscore your own mediocre defense is a lot for six games. It's no accident that the most previous champions defensive rankings were (final...because i don't feel like digging through the csv):

10
3
8
13
8
21
1

duke's at 36 right now.

I see comments like "well, duke gets everyone's best shot," and yeah, that might be true...but it's not an excuse....because you know what we'll get in the tournament? everyone's best shot. So if we can't deal with it now, why should we expect to deal with it later?

Anyway. Is the sky falling? no. Do i see a negative trend? yep. Can these games be disregarded if duke reverts to playing at a high level? yep. Will i be even more worried if we give up over 1 ppp to miami on tuesday? yep.

Lets go duke. lets get some floor slappin action goin.

this morning, duke defensive ranking was #10. post-tournament rankings are not useful to making your point. the winning team, by definition, came off at least a 6 game winning streak against good teams. of course their rankings were good.

[YmoBeThere]

Perhaps it has been discussed elsewhere, but did any else notice how weird the game ended? The whole Rasheed stealing the ball with 5 seconds left, K shaking hands with Gottfried. Gottfried waving goodbye to our team as they left the court trying to beat the crowd rushing the floor?

I understand what Coach K was thinking regarding the rushing of the floor, just think it all looked kinda weird.

[Furniture]

Yea, they were pretty unconscious from 3. A lot of those shots were defended decently well, but still fell for them.
Next play.

I absolutely agree with this. I literally gasped as some of their threes went in. I hope they learn from this. I mean the kids and the coaching staff...

[Saratoga2]

There were a few things that really stood out to me:
- Jahlil spending way too much time with the ball, him dribbling out of the double team and then around to the top of the key is not a good way to use our possession. That may have been due to lack of motion by other players.
- SOOOOOO many blocked shots. I could see most of them coming, and it was really frustrating to watch our players try the same thing time and again only to get swatted again.
- Several steals from our guards just being too lazy when passing the ball. That was egregious and truly poor basketball.
- Mysterious disappearing act from Tyus. That was the first game where i thought his overall play was poor.
- Starting Matt Jones was a huge mistake, and the small lineup with Justise at the 4 is not a particularly great look for us.
- Sate shot out of their minds from 3 for most of the game. I didn't think (m)any of their 3s were particularly wide open, it seemed like we had a guy either in their grill or at least in their area and they still made em. Just gotta tip yer cap.

About 8 minutes into the second half, after State had made their 4th or 5th ridiculous 3 in a row, i thought to myself "how are we only down 5 points"? well, it didn't take long for that to balloon out. Well at least our guys got some composure back and avoided losing by 20, which it looked like was gonna happen.

We did recruit well for this year. You can argue that maybe the mix of players is not optimum, but we do have a very good crew. Once the team is put together, barring injuries or players leaving, like Semi, then the quandry is to put the lineups together in the most effective way.

Matchups today were particularly tough. Tyus is by far and away our best playmaker, but can he guard an athletic 6'4" guard with a killer outside shot? Do you sub in Sheed who can be a better defender against a similar guard, but can he handle the ball without making myriad turnovers? Quinn is not the best playmaker but our best outside shooter but is also up against it guarding a similar 6'4" athletic guard. Is he also a good enough player to make the team offense flow? Is our best use of Justise to play him inside agaist bigger and even stronger players or is he best playing defense against a small forward or big guard? Is it better to put Amile in the 4 and accept that he doesn't look to score enough? What about Matt? His defense is good against guards but not so good inside? He isn't showing a strong offense at this point to be a cog there. Grayson hasn't as yet made it for consideration so what do we do with him? The only one that has no questions associated with him is Jahlil, an enormous talent and clearly our best center. Is Marshall at best a 15 minute a game man?

I would argue that the lineup arrived at by coach K, using Jahlil, Justise, Amile, Quinn and Tyus is our best. Using Marshall as the first and only big off the bench is clearly the only real choice. Finally at subs at guard, I am not at all sure that Sheed is that far ahead of Matt in subbing in to defend big athletic guards. Sheed is ahead of Matt on the offensive side so should get the nod for that reason alone. Grayson may be a scorer but we haven't seen much of that as yet.

[jv001]

We did recruit well for this year. You can argue that maybe the mix of players is not optimum, but we do have a very good crew. Once the team is put together, barring injuries or players leaving, like Semi, then the quandry is to put the lineups together in the most effective way.

Matchups today were particularly tough. Tyus is by far and away our best playmaker, but can he guard an athletic 6'4" guard with a killer outside shot? Do you sub in Sheed who can be a better defender against a similar guard, but can he handle the ball without making myriad turnovers? Quinn is not the best playmaker but our best outside shooter but is also up against it guarding a similar 6'4" athletic guard. Is he also a good enough player to make the team offense flow? Is our best use of Justise to play him inside agaist bigger and even stronger players or is he best playing defense against a small forward or big guard? Is it better to put Amile in the 4 and accept that he doesn't look to score enough? What about Matt? His defense is good against guards but not so good inside? He isn't showing a strong offense at this point to be a cog there. Grayson hasn't as yet made it for consideration so what do we do with him? The only one that has no questions associated with him is Jahlil, an enormous talent and clearly our best center. Is Marshall at best a 15 minute a game man?

I would argue that the lineup arrived at by coach K, using Jahlil, Justise, Amile, Quinn and Tyus is our best. Using Marshall as the first and only big off the bench is clearly the only real choice. Finally at subs at guard, I am not at all sure that Sheed is that far ahead of Matt in subbing in to defend big athletic guards. Sheed is ahead of Matt on the offensive side so should get the nod for that reason alone. Grayson may be a scorer but we haven't seen much of that as yet.

Some very good observations and some very good questions. I'm going to sleep on it before I post something I might regret. The only thing that I pretty much know for sure is, I didn't like that starting lineup. Replacing one player that can't shoot very well with one that is a worse shooter, is not good. Good night Dick, good night Chet. GoDuke!

[devildeac]

Still celebrating in Raleigh, I'd imagine.

Not all of us.

[devildeac]

This. My glass is half full. Yes, State got lots of open dunks and putbacks, but they also hit an incredible number of closely guarded jumpers. There aren't going to be many teams that will put everything together the way State did today.

Nor can I see another game where NCSU executes like they did this afternoon, especially not their next one:mad:.

[uh_no]

this morning, duke defensive ranking was #10. post-tournament rankings are not useful to making your point. the winning team, by definition, came off at least a 6 game winning streak against good teams. of course their rankings were good.

fiiiine:

Uconn14: 11
UL: 1
UK: 5
uconn11: 30
duke: 6
UNC: 49
KU: 6

is duke 15 as dominant as UNC09? that may be up for debate. they certainly were more experienced. I think the point is duke's current defensive performance is borderline for having a chance at winning a title...IF THE TOURNAMENT WERE TO START TODAY. obeviously it does NOT start today...and we have 2 months of fun yet! I want to see positive improvement, though...and so far we're heading the wrong direction.

The fact that duke was 10 this morning and 36 now indicates that the model made a large correction (duh), but such a large correction is not a single game coming. If I were to try to explain it intuitively, I'd say that the model for the past week has been "giving duke the benefit of the doubt" on weaker defensive performances....but after today's game, the more likely scenario was that the performances of late are the rule rather than a slight negative aberration.

[dukelifer]

The last two games have pretty much showed the world how to defend Oak. Double team from the weak side and have the remaining three guys cover the passing lanes. Until we figure out a way to beat this, opponents are going to continue to use this strategy. I know Oak scored a lot of points, but he had to work really hard to get those points, he dominated the ball and prevented others from getting into any kind of rhythm.

We really haven't played that well since the Wisconsin game. I didn't like starting Matt over Amile, but I understand the need to make a change as we need another scoring threat at the 4.

Positive takeaways from the game are hard to come by, but I'll mention fighting to get the deficit to single-digits late, lots of coaching moments to draw on, and free throw shooting.
Speaking of Wisconsin- they had a 12 or lead at halftime and lost by 5. Life is not easy on the road.

[mo.st.dukie]

This is an honest question, but does anyone know what the LOWEST duke's defense was ranked in 2010? I'm guessing it wasn't 36....but would be interesting to know


Best I could find just by searching this site was a defensive ranking of 20th on 2-7-2010 (3rd page of the linked thread). Of course that would have been after two good defensive performances against Georgia Tech and BC so it was probably up a bit if not a lot from where it was in the immediate aftermath of the Georgetown game where we gave up 89 points and 71 %FG. Also in the linked thread, it fell to #18 following the NCSU loss that year. As we have seen going from #10 to #36 the rankings can change quickly and dramatically. It's possible that the defense could have fallen to 30 or lower after the GTown game.


http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?19012-Conference-Projections&highlight=Pomeroy+1-20-2010

[moonpie23]

Perhaps it has been discussed elsewhere, but did any else notice how weird the game ended? The whole Rasheed stealing the ball with 5 seconds left, K shaking hands with Gottfried. Gottfried waving goodbye to our team as they left the court trying to beat the crowd rushing the floor?

I understand what Coach K was thinking regarding the rushing of the floor, just think it all looked kinda weird.

and don't forget THIS oddity... (https://vine.co/v/ODZj1wAqOMa)

[Neals384]

- Starting Matt Jones was a huge mistake, and the small lineup with Justise at the 4 is not a particularly great look for us.

Actually, Justise played at the 4 for 16 minutes today and Duke was +5 in those 16 minutes. In 21 minutes with Jefferson at the 4, we were -15.

[Furniture]

Perhaps it has been discussed elsewhere, but did any else notice how weird the game ended? The whole Rasheed stealing the ball with 5 seconds left, K shaking hands with Gottfried. Gottfried waving goodbye to our team as they left the court trying to beat the crowd rushing the floor?

I understand what Coach K was thinking regarding the rushing of the floor, just think it all looked kinda weird.

It was weird for me because I had never seen it before but it was pragmatic and smart. The refs got involved too. But perhaps it was also K in his way having the last word!

[DUKIE V(A)]

Duke, Wisconsin, and Arizona all lost today in conference on the road. Kentucky and UVA barely escaped yesterday. This just in ... conference roadies are no joke.

That said, our defense needs to get more intense. I have noticed that guys (including and perhaps especially our best players) are not always running full speed back on defense. It's tough to stay as hungry when winning with relative ease but this lack of consistent effort is why UVA is better than we are right now. I suspect we will see a hungrier team in Cameron on Tuesday.

[subzero02]

I would prefer Winslow drive more and take fewer 3's... Tyus Jones needs to score more... Matt Jones needs to either start hitting 3's at a higher rate or only taking them when absolutely necessary. Today was a lesson; may it be studied and absorbed.

[dukelion]

After re-watching the game my biggest issue was with the number of poor rotations that led to wide open dunks underneath especially in the first half.

Guys weren't just slow rotating over they flat out got lost leaving State players all by their lonesome underneath the basket....just way too easy. Perhaps it was a function of Justise playing the 4 but it was really just a poor showing on certain possessions.

My other issue is with our shooters and in particular Matt Jones. If you take a look at his three point attempts the majority were wide open and in rhythm. For a guy with a reputation as an elite shooter this simply was very disappointing.

Some of the post game narrative has been that our offense became predictable and stale however we missed a bunch of great looks by guys that are all considered good shooters.

Give State a ton of credit though....they played great.

[Kedsy]

...but no way we win it all this year without significant improvement on...

Every year after Duke losses someone (actually several someones) around here make pretty much this exact comment about whatever aspect of the game Duke didn't perform well. I wish it would stop. Fact is, if any team performs poorly during the NCAAT in a major area of play, that team won't win the championship.


We've now made it VERY hard on ourselves in terms of winning the league and getting a #1 seed.

Seriously? We're one game behind UVa. Virginia doesn't have to "help us out a bit by dropping a couple games that they should win." All we have to do is beat them when we play them and essentially we're tied.

Also, we have only one loss. You think that won't get a #1 seed? In the past 15 years, here's how many losses it took to get a #1 seed:

3 or fewer losses: 26 teams
4 losses: 14 teams
5 losses: 9 teams
6 losses: 7 teams
7 losses: 4 teams

So in the 15-year period, 57% of #1 seeds had 4 or more losses, and 33% had 5 or more losses. I don't think a #1 seed is out of reach quite yet.


Seems unlikely that two #1's will come out of the ACC...

Why do you say this? Though it hasn't happened much in the past few years, if you look at the past 15 seasons, the NCAA tournament has had multiple #1 seeds from the same conference 7 times out of 15 (47%). If Duke and Virginia are two of the best four teams come Selection Sunday, there's no reason why they can't both get #1s.


This is where not having Murphy or Semi hurts because they are threats that far from the basket and means defenses have to respect them instead of focusing almost solely on Jah.

Do you honestly think either Semi or Alex would have played more than a minute or two today if they'd been on our active roster?


no doubt. need to rewatch and judge 3 point shot openness more objectively...but they could have shot 6/156 and still won....

Well, if they'd just shot 6 for 16 instead of 10 for 16, they'd have 12 less points, and they won by 12. So I don't entirely understand your 6/156 comment.


Following sports should be fun. Otherwise, it's not worth the time. I understand investing emotionally and getting frustrated by a loss. But bitter and angry over a conference road loss when your team is 14-1?

I totally agree with this.


Didn't get to watch the game, looking at the box score is it time for Sheed to start over Jones?

Matt has started a grand total of one game this season, though of course it was today. I assume he started because State starts three guards and Coach K wanted to match up with them. Obviously we'll see over the next few games, but I assume the PF position is still Amile's at this point.


Wake set the blueprint for defending Duke. Double Jahlil and make the others beat you, mainly from outside.

I don't understand this comment. Jahlil scored 23 points today, more than his season average. Why do you think State's doubling on him was so effective that it was the "blueprint for defending Duke"?

[Kedsy]

Out of our 27 three-point attempts, I can only think of 2 that were closely guarded. They were good shots; we just missed them. Of their 16 three-point attempts, I can't think of a single one that wasn't excellently guarded. Lacey and Turner were just LIGHTS OUT. No rim, nothing but net. Take away two of theirs and give us 2 of ours and the game is, well, its a tie if you don't imagine any other changes.

Well said, thank you. We took good shots that just didn't go in, and most (not all, of course) of our defensive problems stemmed directly from State shooting well-guarded threes so well. If they shoot their average, our defensive efficiency if 1.09 is poor but not dreadful (as our actual def eff of 1.26 appears to be).

State's open backdoor layups were aggravating, I'll admit, but I think most of them happened when Amile (our best communicator) was on the bench.


Looking at the schedules of Arizona, Gonzaga, Wisconsin and Kentucky, I'm not sure they are. Lose much, anyway.


Duke, Wisconsin, and Arizona all lost today in conference on the road. Kentucky and UVA barely escaped yesterday. This just in ... conference roadies are no joke.

Duvall, did you expect Rutgers to beat Wisconsin and Oregon State to beat Arizona? Did you expect Kentucky to need overtime to win their first two SEC games (one at home) against teams that aren't even in Pomeroy's top 40 after losing so closely to UK?

Almost every good team loses a few games to lesser opponents, especially when they're on the road in-conference. Expecting Duke to lose our tough games but discounting the possibility of it happening to all the other good teams is shortsighted.


And how many losses do you think Duke ends up with before the tourney? More or less than 8?

Seriously, you think the over/under is 8? I'll take the under and I'll win that bet easily.


...if Duke can't play those guys together, along with a bigger guard, they have little chance of matching up with a team like Kentucky...

Did Mississippi and Texas A&M have any chance of matching up with Kentucky?



The fact that duke was 10 this morning and 36 now indicates that the model made a large correction (duh), but such a large correction is not a single game coming. If I were to try to explain it intuitively, I'd say that the model for the past week has been "giving duke the benefit of the doubt" on weaker defensive performances....but after today's game, the more likely scenario was that the performances of late are the rule rather than a slight negative aberration.

I don't pretend to know every nuance of Pomeroy's formula, but from what I do know, I don't believe it can possibly work the way you're describing here. Our defensive efficiency went from 10 to 35 because in 15 games, putting up one 1.26 stinker (when your previous average was around 90) can move your average up 2.5 points, and the difference between 10th and 35th is about 2.5 points.

[NashvilleDevil]

Well said, thank you. We took good shots that just didn't go in, and most (not all, of course) of our defensive problems stemmed directly from State shooting well-guarded threes so well. If they shoot their average, our defensive efficiency if 1.09 is poor but not dreadful (as our actual def eff of 1.26 appears to be).

State's open backdoor layups were aggravating, I'll admit, but I think most of them happened when Amile (our best communicator) was on the bench.





Duvall, did you expect Rutgers to beat Wisconsin and Oregon State to beat Arizona? Did you expect Kentucky to need overtime to win their first two SEC games (one at home) against teams that aren't even in Pomeroy's top 40 after losing so closely to UK?

Almost every good team loses a few games to lesser opponents, especially when they're on the road in-conference. Expecting Duke to lose our tough games but discounting the possibility of it happening to all the other good teams is shortsighted.



Seriously, you think the over/under is 8? I'll take the under and I'll win that bet easily.


I also think Duke losses less than 8. I was responding to Duvall who thinks Duke has a tough road to a one seed after one loss against a hot shooting NC State team. I think Duke losses between 3-5 games this year.

[roywhite]

Physical strength and maturity were part of the story yesterday, IMO.

Tyus Jones, Justise Winslow, and Jahlil Okafor are 18, 18, and 19 years old. Trevor Lacey and Ralston Turner are each 23.

Our hope is that Duke's talented young group will gain enough experience and toughness by year-end to overcome a good and older team. We saw it with the 1991 team vs a decidedly older UNLV in the Final Four.

[DukeFanSince1990]

Pretty sure we lost because I switched satellite providers and this was the first game I watched on it. Sorry guys, I dropped the ball.

[DukeFanSince1990]

Physical strength and maturity were part of the story yesterday, IMO.

Tyus Jones, Justise Winslow, and Jahlil Okafor are 18, 18, and 19 years old. Trevor Lacey and Ralston Turner are each 23.

Our hope is that Duke's talented young group will gain enough experience and toughness by year-end to overcome a good and older team. We saw it with the 1991 team vs a decidedly older UNLV in the Final Four.

"Tyus Jones, Justise Winslow, and Jahlil Okafor are 18, 18, and 19 years old. Trevor Lacey and Ralston Turner are each 23."

Didn't realize that, that is a very good point.

[jv001]

Some thought from the State game. First, if Duke was going to lose, I'm glad it was to NC State who is my second favorite team. Now for the game itself.
State played well pretty much the entire game. Duke played decent defense on the perimeter and State hit some well guarded shots. The Pack was on fire. Duke didn't play good defense in the paint, especially in the first half. The one thing that I took away from the first two ACC games is this. The rotation +/- for those two games indicate Amile and Matt should not be on the court together for extended minutes. The State game: Amile and Matt were -15 together. In the Wake game they were -1 together. But this combination is not the worst so far in ACC play. Amile and Tyus were -19 together against State and -3 against Wake. Is that something to be concerned about as we're two games into the ACC schedule? And that's against two of the weaker teams in the ACC. Maybe it has something to do with the Jones gang :cool: Someone more intelligent regarding college basketball and the +/- can tell me if this is really a concern. By the way, good game State and beat the Cheaters. GoDuke!

[MCFinARL]

So now that I am calm and have read through the whole thread, so I can avoid beat dead horses, I will venture a couple of thoughts that I haven't seen explored in depth here.

1) Bee Jay Anya has a 7'9" wingspan. That's seven feet, nine inches. He had a very good plan for using it today--not only to shoot over Okafor but to block or alter a lot of shots. Justise, Rasheed and others got stuffed multiple times. When our threes didn't fall, we tried to drive some more, usually with similar success. Against a player like Anya, it would help so much to have one or two players who can consistently hit shots from somewhere between the rim and the three-point line. But I'm not sure we do.

2) Someone mentioned upthread that Coach K was calm on the sideline and speculated that he was probably watching to see how the team would respond. I have no coaching experience (unless you count parenting), and no doubt there is some master plan behind just about everything Coach K does. But speaking strictly as a totally unqualified outsider, this is something I have seen Coach K do often [go still and seemingly withdrawn on the sideline when Duke is losing] that I really don't like. With a veteran team, okay, sometimes you just have to let them figure out whether they want to win and how to do it. But this is a very young team--maybe some more active coaching and/or more fire from the sideline would help. Gottfried was standing up most of the game, pacing, engaged, while the Duke coaches looked like a bunch of corporate executives mulling over a job candidate.

I am prepared to take a beating for comment #2--since it offers criticism of Coach K and, as I have already acknowledged, I am doubtless completely unqualified to do so. And possibly this is just a style thing and there was a lot more active coaching going on during the game than I perceived. It's just the observation of a fan.

[uh_no]

Well, if they'd just shot 6 for 16 instead of 10 for 16, they'd have 12 less points, and they won by 12. So I don't entirely understand your 6/156 comment.
they could have won in overtime :) I was very precise with my wording....except where i made a type when i meant to type 6/16

[moonpie23]

i had to work and the tv was on, but i couldn't actually WATCH it......every time i looked over, state was draining some ridiculous shot......then we would go down and turn the ball over or miss a shot...

state was hot...

[CajunDevil]

So now that I am calm and have read through the whole thread, so I can avoid beat dead horses, I will venture a couple of thoughts that I haven't seen explored in depth here.

1) Bee Jay Anya has a 7'9" wingspan. That's seven feet, nine inches. He had a very good plan for using it today--not only to shoot over Okafor but to block or alter a lot of shots. Justise, Rasheed and others got stuffed multiple times. When our threes didn't fall, we tried to drive some more, usually with similar success. Against a player like Anya, it would help so much to have one or two players who can consistently hit shots from somewhere between the rim and the three-point line. But I'm not sure we do.

2) Someone mentioned upthread that Coach K was calm on the sideline and speculated that he was probably watching to see how the team would respond. I have no coaching experience (unless you count parenting), and no doubt there is some master plan behind just about everything Coach K does. But speaking strictly as a totally unqualified outsider, this is something I have seen Coach K do often [go still and seemingly withdrawn on the sideline when Duke is losing] that I really don't like. With a veteran team, okay, sometimes you just have to let them figure out whether they want to win and how to do it. But this is a very young team--maybe some more active coaching and/or more fire from the sideline would help. Gottfried was standing up most of the game, pacing, engaged, while the Duke coaches looked like a bunch of corporate executives mulling over a job candidate.

I am prepared to take a beating for comment #2--since it offers criticism of Coach K and, as I have already acknowledged, I am doubtless completely unqualified to do so. And possibly this is just a style thing and there was a lot more active coaching going on during the game than I perceived. It's just the observation of a fan.

Your second point is always tricky for a coach. Given this was the first time this team had faced this type of adversity and given their lofty ranking, I think the 'let them figure it out' approach was best at this point. One, to see how this team responds, if good then that is great. If bad, then you have one hell of a teaching moment. Two, K wants the team to feel some pain. Everything had been easy up to this point and they needed some humbling to make them hungry again, imo.

However, if we get down double digits again then I doubt K takes the same tact for the reasons you mentioned.

[jgehtland]

Impressive that you got a State fan to admit that. Do you have incriminating photos of them or something?

First, I didn't get them to. They volunteered. Even more telling.

And, second, yes, my friend posted a picture of us both in the stands at the game, me in my Duke shirt. That counts as incriminating to a State fan. :)

[FerryFor50]

So now that I am calm and have read through the whole thread, so I can avoid beat dead horses, I will venture a couple of thoughts that I haven't seen explored in depth here.

1) Bee Jay Anya has a 7'9" wingspan. That's seven feet, nine inches. He had a very good plan for using it today--not only to shoot over Okafor but to block or alter a lot of shots. Justise, Rasheed and others got stuffed multiple times. When our threes didn't fall, we tried to drive some more, usually with similar success. Against a player like Anya, it would help so much to have one or two players who can consistently hit shots from somewhere between the rim and the three-point line. But I'm not sure we do.

2) Someone mentioned upthread that Coach K was calm on the sideline and speculated that he was probably watching to see how the team would respond. I have no coaching experience (unless you count parenting), and no doubt there is some master plan behind just about everything Coach K does. But speaking strictly as a totally unqualified outsider, this is something I have seen Coach K do often [go still and seemingly withdrawn on the sideline when Duke is losing] that I really don't like. With a veteran team, okay, sometimes you just have to let them figure out whether they want to win and how to do it. But this is a very young team--maybe some more active coaching and/or more fire from the sideline would help. Gottfried was standing up most of the game, pacing, engaged, while the Duke coaches looked like a bunch of corporate executives mulling over a job candidate.

I am prepared to take a beating for comment #2--since it offers criticism of Coach K and, as I have already acknowledged, I am doubtless completely unqualified to do so. And possibly this is just a style thing and there was a lot more active coaching going on during the game than I perceived. It's just the observation of a fan.

Bee Jay Anya is an ELITE shot blocker. Has been for a while. Has a great sense of timing. Last season, was foul prone because he was... heavy. This season, he dropped a lot of weight and is much better at avoiding fouls. I don't think we'd have seen that monster follow dunk from him last year.

As for #2, I think I mentioned it here:



These things happen. Hopefully the team learns from it. I think K was pretty calm during the game and was just letting them take the beating to see how they'd respond. I felt that when they went down 19 and started pressing on D, they played pretty well. Showed a lot of fight down the stretch to make it a little more respectable.

Here's the issue with your "veteran team" statement - Duke is not going to be a veteran team this season. Or next season. In fact, I think the days where Duke starts 4-5 seniors or even has 4-5 seniors playing major minutes are gone. This is the era of the freshman/sophomore. So, to make these kids think more like veterans, you treat them like veterans. Let them play through it. It's not like getting mad or calling every timeout you had was going to win a game where they were down 19 and State could not miss.

It's a long season and that was a teachable moment. I'm sure K will have plenty of yelling sessions in practice this week. :)

[FerryFor50]

First, I didn't get them to. They volunteered. Even more telling.

And, second, yes, my friend posted a picture of us both in the stands at the game, me in my Duke shirt. That counts as incriminating to a State fan. :)

When I went to State for college, I really wanted to cheer for them. I really did (except when they played Duke). But it was hard - that fanbase whines. A lot. They have the same syndrome that affects many fanbases that have once tasted glory eons ago. They feel entitlement and disrespect at the same time. Everyone is out to get them. I'm shocked the entire arena isn't covered in tin foil to stop the NCAA from controlling the officials by radio waves.

There are some reasonable fans, but they are few and far between.

It was always most frustrating to see them turn into mega-Cameron for games against Duke or UNC, but then revert to a Dean Dome replica when they played anyone else.

I still root for them most of the time, but hate going to games there.

[Neals384]

... The rotation +/- for those two games indicate Amile and Matt should not be on the court together for extended minutes. The State game: Amile and Matt were -15 together. ...

Amile and Matt on the court together were -5 vs. State, not -15.

[duke79]

So now that I am calm and have read through the whole thread, so I can avoid beat dead horses, I will venture a couple of thoughts that I haven't seen explored in depth here.

1) Bee Jay Anya has a 7'9" wingspan. That's seven feet, nine inches. He had a very good plan for using it today--not only to shoot over Okafor but to block or alter a lot of shots. Justise, Rasheed and others got stuffed multiple times. When our threes didn't fall, we tried to drive some more, usually with similar success. Against a player like Anya, it would help so much to have one or two players who can consistently hit shots from somewhere between the rim and the three-point line. But I'm not sure we do.

2) Someone mentioned upthread that Coach K was calm on the sideline and speculated that he was probably watching to see how the team would respond. I have no coaching experience (unless you count parenting), and no doubt there is some master plan behind just about everything Coach K does. But speaking strictly as a totally unqualified outsider, this is something I have seen Coach K do often [go still and seemingly withdrawn on the sideline when Duke is losing] that I really don't like. With a veteran team, okay, sometimes you just have to let them figure out whether they want to win and how to do it. But this is a very young team--maybe some more active coaching and/or more fire from the sideline would help. Gottfried was standing up most of the game, pacing, engaged, while the Duke coaches looked like a bunch of corporate executives mulling over a job candidate.

I am prepared to take a beating for comment #2--since it offers criticism of Coach K and, as I have already acknowledged, I am doubtless completely unqualified to do so. And possibly this is just a style thing and there was a lot more active coaching going on during the game than I perceived. It's just the observation of a fan.

LOL, it's OK to be a "backseat driver" on a message board like this. I'm sure (or I hope) Coach K knows what he is doing at this point in his coaching career. He has certainly seen many situations like yesterday during his 40 odd years of coaching. I have to admit, though, that, at one point in the second half, when State started to go on a tear and both the Duke offense and defense seemed totally outmanned and intimidated by the surroundings, that I was yelling at the TV screen for K to call a time out and try to stop State's momentum, quiet the crowd down some, and re-set both Duke's defense and offense. But for some reason, he did not call a time out. State continued their run and it seemed like the game slipped away from Duke at that moment. UGH.

[Lar77]

Thank you Kedsy for your posts early this morning (late last night?).

As he points out, let's not press the panic button just yet. State played an outstanding game as they often do against us in Raleigh. We did not play a game that deserved a win, but many of State's outside shots were well contested. Sadly, our KenPom defensive ranking fell substantially, but we have two months to recover.

The last two games I thought we looked sluggish on offense and had some less intense moments on defense than we were showing earlier in the year. In other words, there is room for improvement and it is up to this team to figure out what it will take to accomplish that. Based on our prior games, it looks like we have that ability and maturity.

Hats off to Lacey and Anya. Each had his best game.

Agree with other posters that the end of the game was weird. I get tired of watching other fan bases rush the court (mainly because it means we lost, but also it lacks spontaneity in most cases) and am concerned about player safety, but the ACC seems content with the current situation.

I'm sure Advil sales have picked up in Raleigh this morning.:D

[Billy Dat]

We lost our composure for about 14 minutes. No one to blame but our guys for getting frustrated.

We lost in part because we were out-shot by State, 55 percent to 37 percent -- and more if "effective" FG pct. is calculated. This is a measure of our poor defense, but also of State's really good shooting. If the Pack shoot 6-16 instead of 10-16 from 3-point range, it's a different game. Duke was 7-27 from beyond the arc, and these were mostly decent shots. It looked a bit like panic to me by a very young team.

Out of our 27 three-point attempts, I can only think of 2 that were closely guarded. They were good shots; we just missed them. Of their 16 three-point attempts, I can't think of a single one that wasn't excellently guarded. Lacey and Turner were just LIGHTS OUT. No rim, nothing but net. Take away two of theirs and give us 2 of ours and the game is, well, its a tie if you don't imagine any other changes.

They hit impossible 3's which frustrated us and our defensive intensity dropped because of it. We'll learn from it and be okay.

When Beejay Anya is hitting left and right hand hook shots over Jahlil Okafor, it's not your night.

I was watching the game on DVR delay and didn't watch the final 7-8 minutes because I could see that we were cooked. My impressions are basically expressed in the quotes above. I thought we played hard and pretty well for the first 25-30 minutes of the game but State was hitting everything. Most of those 3s were well contested, the hit a lot of shots after we played 30-33 seconds of solid halfcourt defense, and I also thought they got a little home cooking from the officials, nothing egregious but enough, combined with their insane shooting, to frustrate a young team. Anya threw in a hook that Jah got a piece of. When I saw that, I said to my sons - "this aint our day, boys". As we headed into the final 10, we were like a fighter who took too many body blows and dropped our hands, the lazy passes, the bad interior D, etc. But, prior to that, I thought we were in the fight. A more vet team may have fought better to keep that 8 point lead from ballooning which might have allowed that late run to pull us even and sent some panic into State. That's where the toughness needs to come in, keep battling to keep it a 2-3 possession game to see if those 3s start coming up a little short as game pressure mounts.


After re-watching the game my biggest issue was with the number of poor rotations that led to wide open dunks underneath especially in the first half.
Guys weren't just slow rotating over they flat out got lost leaving State players all by their lonesome underneath the basket....just way too easy. Perhaps it was a function of Justise playing the 4 but it was really just a poor showing on certain possessions.

This was definitely happening even when we were playing hard, and Jah was often the culprit. His man would be the screener, he'd "down" the screen but turn his back on his man, not rotate back, and his man was wide open on the roll.


Sheed was unfortunately more famine than feast today. A couple of his hero ball moves led to some highly unfavorable point swings. I miss the ball movement we seemed to have earlier in the season.

I disagree with this a little in that he was great in the first half. I love him in the 6th man role and think he brings a lot of energy and fight. You are right that he makes a lot of dumb plays, but I wish the others had his aggressiveness. He understands that the team needs additional offensive threats to keep the defense from 100% keying on Jah. I want Justise to get a little more of Rasheed's offensive ego and attack more.

Overall, I think we ran into State on a night when they could not miss and we could not make open shots. The bummer is that we lost our composure with about 10 minutes left when the game was still winnable despite their gaudy offensive performance. We wondered what would happen when this team got down 10+ points. Let's see how we learn from it.

[MCFinARL]

Your second point is always tricky for a coach. Given this was the first time this team had faced this type of adversity and given their lofty ranking, I think the 'let them figure it out' approach was best at this point. One, to see how this team responds, if good then that is great. If bad, then you have one hell of a teaching moment. Two, K wants the team to feel some pain. Everything had been easy up to this point and they needed some humbling to make them hungry again, imo.

However, if we get down double digits again then I doubt K takes the same tact for the reasons you mentioned.


Bee Jay Anya is an ELITE shot blocker. Has been for a while. Has a great sense of timing. Last season, was foul prone because he was... heavy. This season, he dropped a lot of weight and is much better at avoiding fouls. I don't think we'd have seen that monster follow dunk from him last year.

As for #2, I think I mentioned it here:



Here's the issue with your "veteran team" statement - Duke is not going to be a veteran team this season. Or next season. In fact, I think the days where Duke starts 4-5 seniors or even has 4-5 seniors playing major minutes are gone. This is the era of the freshman/sophomore. So, to make these kids think more like veterans, you treat them like veterans. Let them play through it. It's not like getting mad or calling every timeout you had was going to win a game where they were down 19 and State could not miss.

It's a long season and that was a teachable moment. I'm sure K will have plenty of yelling sessions in practice this week. :)


LOL, it's OK to be a "backseat driver" on a message board like this. I'm sure (or I hope) Coach K knows what he is doing at this point in his coaching career. He has certainly seen many situations like yesterday during his 40 odd years of coaching. I have to admit, though, that, at one point in the second half, when State started to go on a tear and both the Duke offense and defense seemed totally outmanned and intimidated by the surroundings, that I was yelling at the TV screen for K to call a time out and try to stop State's momentum, quiet the crowd down some, and re-set both Duke's defense and offense. But for some reason, he did not call a time out. State continued their run and it seemed like the game slipped away from Duke at that moment. UGH.

These are all thoughtful, helpful responses. Thanks. I guess part of my issue is a body language thing--to me, the coaches' body language in these moments seemingly communicates indifference or resignation rather than watchfulness (see how they respond) or confidence. But that may result from seeing isolated close-ups on TV; the signals may read very differently to the players. duke79, I remember the moment you are talking about and I was thinking the same thing. As it was, I think Duke used all of their second half timeouts, so maybe one couldn't be spared there, but geez.

[sagegrouse]

After re-watching the game my biggest issue was with the number of poor rotations that led to wide open dunks underneath especially in the first half.



Let me get this straight. You watched the NC State game all the way through for a SECOND time? Wow! What fortitude!

[dyedwab]

....and the reaction to losses tend to be, well, extreme. But given what is similar about this loss to last year's losses (defense successfully frustrates primary offensive option, long scoring drought, high-level offensive performance by opponent, obvious and expressed frustration by our players....), what seems to be important is two things. 1) Will this team figure out tactically and strategically what it needs to do to meet the new wrinkles it is faced with and 2) Will this team maintain its mental edge and focus coming back.

Last year's team never seemed to consistently figure out what it needed to do to prevent the cascading failures in its losses, and didn't seem to have the resilience that this team has.

So, whether you believe yesterday was "just one of those ACC road games" or was an alarming confirmation of some apparent trends, the key, to me is whether we respond well in the next couple of games. That, more than anything, is what I'm taking away from this game.

[sagegrouse]

....and the reaction to losses tend to be, well, extreme. But given what is similar about this loss to last year's losses (defense successfully frustrates primary offensive option, long scoring drought, high-level offensive performance by opponent, obvious and expressed frustration by our players....), what seems to be important is two things. 1) Will this team figure out tactically and strategically what it needs to do to meet the new wrinkles it is faced with and 2) Will this team maintain its mental edge and focus coming back.

Last year's team never seemed to consistently figure out what it needed to do to prevent the cascading failures in its losses, and didn't seem to have the resilience that this team has.

So, whether you believe yesterday was "just one of those ACC road games" or was an alarming confirmation of some apparent trends, the key, to me is whether we respond well in the next couple of games. That, more than anything, is what I'm taking away from this game.

The Board reaction to the game was less bad than I expected. That said, there were subjects of concern:


Our rim defense was pa-THET-ic! Whisky tango foxtrot?!? I hope that's fixable -- and immediately!

State was hotter than hot, and at our best, we may have lost this game. 10-16 from threes and there shots were more closely guarded than our three-pointers.

We were 7-27 from three-opoint range. Stuff happens -- this was much like the Mercer game.

I got no complaints about the play of Jah, Cook, and Rasheed (in the 1st half). Tyus seemed to disappear, whereas in our previous tough matches, he took over the game in the second half. We'll hope this is a mini-slump.

The team went into a swoon in the middle of the second half, and let the game get out of hand. If, as others have noted, we had held the deficit to eight points, we likely would have won.



This is all. Go Duke!!

[hillsborodevil]

I sure wouldn't want to be Duke's next opponent. At least it wasn't in Cameron. No shame in losing to the Pack @ the PNC. PackPride is our ally.

[pfrduke]

Duvall, did you expect Rutgers to beat Wisconsin and Oregon State to beat Arizona? Did you expect Kentucky to need overtime to win their first two SEC games (one at home) against teams that aren't even in Pomeroy's top 40 after losing so closely to UK?

So, I also think Duvall is being overly pessimistic. That being said, it is also true that Kentucky, Arizona, Virginia, and Wisconsin likely have easier remaining schedules than Duke does, particularly if you only look at games away from home. Arizona has two road games remaining against current top 50 teams - Utah and Stanford. Kentucky has 4 - Alabama, South Carolina, Florida, and Georgia. Wisconsin also has 4 - Iowa, Maryland, Minnesota, Ohio State. Virginia has 4 - UNC, NC State, Syracuse, Louisville.

Duke has 6 - Louisville, Virginia, Notre Dame, St. John's, Syracuse, and UNC. Based on today's rankings (which obviously will fluctuate as the season progresses), Duke's 4 most difficult road opponents are all more highly ranked than any of Wisconsin's opponents (home or away), any of Kentucky's opponents (same), and any of Arizona's opponents except Utah. Duke has 6 games and 4 road games against the other 4 of the top 5 teams in the ACC; UVA has 4 remaining games (2 road games) against the other 4 of the top 5 from its perspective.

So while it's true that teams drop games against below-elite-level competition, there is reason to be concerned about the impact of Duke dropping one of those games on its long term seeding impact because it has less margin for error given its remaining schedule. We got a tough conference draw - if you look at the conference's top 7 teams (UVA, UNC, Louisville, Notre Dame, Syracuse, NCSU), Duke has to play 3 of them twice and the other 3 it all has to play on the road - 3 home games and 6 road games against those teams. Virginia has one fewer total game and two fewer road games against those teams; Louisville has one fewer total game and three fewer road games; UNC also has 9 games against the top, but 6 at home and 3 on the road instead of vice versa.

None of this dooms our shot at a 1 seed or the conference regular season title - the road to those two things is easy: win. But it's not unrealistic to acknowledge that the road in front of us is more littered with obvious land mines than the respective roads in front of our main competition.

[devil84]

These are all thoughtful, helpful responses. Thanks. I guess part of my issue is a body language thing--to me, the coaches' body language in these moments seemingly communicates indifference or resignation rather than watchfulness (see how they respond) or confidence. But that may result from seeing isolated close-ups on TV; the signals may read very differently to the players. duke79, I remember the moment you are talking about and I was thinking the same thing. As it was, I think Duke used all of their second half timeouts, so maybe one couldn't be spared there, but geez.

I can assure you that Coach K's body language (and the rest of the staff) reads far, far differently to the players than it does to fans in the stands, and doubly so for those watching on TV. Remember, a televised game is going to show the game play first (when a lot of the demonstrative coaching happens just outside the field of play, and likely outside of the camera viewpoint). There are plenty of opportunities for the director to show other things to make it feel like you're there, but there is so much going on in the stadium there's a lot to choose from, so the shots will be notable or interesting. A coach sitting quietly while his team is losing is, well, notable. What isn't made abundantly clear is, at that very time, most players are properly positioned with their backs to the coach, so any visible demonstration by the coach won't make a bit of difference to the players. The "active" coaching took place on the inbounds play just seconds prior to that camera shot and it'll take a few seconds to at least start executing the play before more coaching is needed. A camera shot of Coach a few seconds before or a few seconds later and would provide a much different look.

Doesn't it make for better TV to show the winningest DI men's coach looking indifferent when losing and then showing the underdog coach looking like he's working harder to win? That's great TV, but it's not reality. BOTH coaches are working very hard. Not only that, but TV viewers don't typically see what goes on in timeouts, another time when "visible" coaching takes place.

I've been in Cameron, texting with people that are watching the game on TV. I've gotten the text, "Why isn't K DOING anything?" Geez, the guy is pacing the sideline, yelling instructions, and is using body English to will the ball into the basket, and TV only shows him when he sits down and watches the team bring the ball upcourt.

Aside from seeing only the "interesting" parts of the coaching staff's sideline behavior, there's another dimension to think about. In one's work world, which boss behavior might work better when an employee is clearly struggling (when they usually don't): let the boss stomp around just outside the employee's office, throwing his hands up and screaming at the employee to do better, or to carefully monitor the employee, remaining calm while offering suggestions or trusting the employee to return to his/her usual performance? IOW, if the shots aren't falling when they had been all season, do coaching histrionics on the sidelines help or hinder a player who is struggling to find the basket? Likewise, what kind of visible reaction from the coaches is appropriate when their defensive player has done a stellar job of defending the player such that the opponent launches circus shot after circus shot and they keep going in?

This is just mostly just food for thought and really not a debate over individual situations, but the bottom line is that I believe that the coaching reactions that you see on TV aren't necessarily a true reflection of what's really happening.

[Duvall]

Duvall, did you expect Rutgers to beat Wisconsin and Oregon State to beat Arizona? Did you expect Kentucky to need overtime to win their first two SEC games (one at home) against teams that aren't even in Pomeroy's top 40 after losing so closely to UK?


Well, I wasn't expecting Wisconsin to suffer injuries to Frank Kaminsky and Traevon Jackson. Certainly any team can be derailed by key injuries, with the possible exception of Gonzaga, whose opponents are just that bad. But while any team can have an unexpected loss or two against a weaker opponent, so can Duke. (Indeed, they just did.) So that ends up being a wash, with Duke left playing nine more games against teams better than N.C. State, something other top teams just don't have to do.

[Kedsy]

In fact, I think the days where Duke starts 4-5 seniors or even has 4-5 seniors playing major minutes are gone.

During Coach K's tenure at Duke, we haven't had four seniors start since 1986 (and we've never had five seniors start). So I guess those days ended a long time ago. Only two Coach K Duke teams have had four seniors play major minutes, 1986 and 2006. Again, we've never had five.

Even having three seniors playing rotation minutes is rare under Coach K -- only seven times in K's 35 Duke seasons. However, it has happened three times in the last ten years (2006, 2010, 2013), so I'm not sure saying something that last happened two years ago is "gone" would be accurate.



None of this dooms our shot at a 1 seed or the conference regular season title - the road to those two things is easy: win. But it's not unrealistic to acknowledge that the road in front of us is more littered with obvious land mines than the respective roads in front of our main competition.

Your assessment is fair, our schedule moving forward as you present it does seem a bit tougher than the other teams vying for a #1 seed. But as you say, the solution is easy. If Duke is as good a team as we think it is, we ought to win a decent share of those tough games. If we do that and win the ACC tournament, we should be a #1 seed.

[FerryFor50]

During Coach K's tenure at Duke, we haven't had four seniors start since 1986 (and we've never had five seniors start). So I guess those days ended a long time ago. Only two Coach K Duke teams have had four seniors play major minutes, 1986 and 2006. Again, we've never had five.

Even having three seniors playing rotation minutes is rare under Coach K -- only seven times in K's 35 Duke seasons. However, it has happened three times in the last ten years (2006, 2010, 2013), so I'm not sure saying something that last happened two years ago is "gone" would be accurate.


Sigh.

Allow me to correct myself.

Upperclassmen.

Better?

[AIRFORCEDUKIE]

Maybe I am looking at this wrong, but in this era of college hoops which I am classifying as after the 2010 season, if you have a lot of upperclassmen in the rotation, it would mean that we aren't very good. That would mean that a recruiting class didn't pan out and no one went early to the draft after a year or 2. It seems like this day in age you need that superstar freshman or coming into his own sophmore to take a team to the next level.

Or I guess it could be a program buffering class where we had 5 recruits and one of them went early the other four decided to stay for whatever reason.

I suspect if you were to look at teams in the final four from 2010 to now you would find a lot of freshman and sophs staring on those teams, with maybe 1 or 2 super upperclassmen.

[uh_no]

Maybe I am looking at this wrong, but in this era of college hoops which I am classifying as after the 2010 season, if you have a lot of upperclassmen in the rotation, it would mean that we aren't very good. That would mean that a recruiting class didn't pan out and no one went early to the draft after a year or 2. It seems like this day in age you need that superstar freshman or coming into his own sophmore to take a team to the next level.

Or I guess it could be a program buffering class where we had 5 recruits and one of them went early the other four decided to stay for whatever reason.

I suspect if you were to look at teams in the final four from 2010 to now you would find a lot of freshman and sophs staring on those teams, with maybe 1 or 2 super upperclassmen.
This is so off base given that duke, uconnx2 and Louisville were all lead by upper classmen

[Kedsy]

Sigh.

Allow me to correct myself.

Upperclassmen.

Better?

Not really. We have four upperclassmen playing 10+ mpg this season.

Here's the number of Duke upperclassmen who've played rotation (10+) minutes for the past seven seasons:

2015: 4
2014: 3 (plus Rodney Hood, who was a redshirt sophomore so he was an upperclassman if you go by years in school)
2013: 4
2012: 5
2011: 3
2010: 5
2009: 6

Here's the number of Duke upperclassmen who played 10+ mpg from 1998 to 2004:

1998: 3
1999: 2
2000: 3
2001: 2
2002: 4
2003: 4
2004: 2

As a bonus, here's the number of Duke upperclassmen who played 10+ mpg from 1990 to 1992:

1990: 4
1991: 3
1992: 4

So we've had as many or more upperclassmen in the rotation in recent years than we did in the "golden years." I just don't think the lack of a roster filled with upperclassmen is a new trend at Duke.

[cptnflash]

Kedsy! Great to hear from you! And thanks for reading my post! Also, glad to see your copy/paste/disagree skills are up to their usual high standards.

Since you asked some questions in response to my post, I'll answer them.


Seriously? We're one game behind UVa. Virginia doesn't have to "help us out a bit by dropping a couple games that they should win." All we have to do is beat them when we play them and essentially we're tied.

Except that Virginia has a much easier ACC schedule than we do. For starters, "all we have to do is beat them when we play them" is a tall order, given that the game is in Charlottesville and they're the better team so far this year. Can we do it? Sure we can. Will Virginia be favored? Absolutely. Would the reverse be true if we played them in Cameron instead? Definitely! That's why I said in my post that it's too bad we don't get them in Cameron this year (you must have forgotten to copy/paste that part, but it's still up in the original post if you want to look).

Second, away from the head-to-head in their building, barring injury Virginia will very likely be favored in every remaining game on their schedule, mostly by hefty margins (betting markets tend to track Pomeroy quite closely, other than extreme mismatches). Meanwhile, Duke is currently projected as the underdog in 3 of our games: @ UVa, @ Louisville, and @ UNC. So given that A) we're already a game behind them, and B) in expectation they should have a better record between now and the end of the season, I would say yeah, we need them to help us out by dropping a couple games they should win.. as in, games in which they will be heavily favored, just like we did yesterday against NC State.


Also, we have only one loss. You think that won't get a #1 seed?

Yes, of course if we still have only one loss on Selection Sunday, we'll get a #1 seed. Pomeroy gives us roughly a 0.3% chance of winning all of our remaining regular season games, and if we did that, we'd probably have something like a 50% chance of winning three straight in the ACC tournament. So yeah, on the 0.15% chance that we run the table from here, we're a lock. Just like you were willing to take the under on someone else's suggestion that we could have 8 losses by tournament time, I'll take the over on 1. Let me know if you disagree.


Why do you say this? Though it hasn't happened much in the past few years, if you look at the past 15 seasons, the NCAA tournament has had multiple #1 seeds from the same conference 7 times out of 15 (47%). If Duke and Virginia are two of the best four teams come Selection Sunday, there's no reason why they can't both get #1s.

I say that for a few reasons. First, barring injury or some other unforeseen catastrophe, two of the #1 seeds are already spoken for: Kentucky and Gonzaga are getting them (please look at their remaining schedules before disagreeing... and then look at them again). That leaves the remaining two #1 seeds for some combination of the winner of the ACC (if it's Virginia, Duke, or Louisville), the winner of the Big 10 if it's Wisconsin, the winner of the Big East if it's Villanova, the winner of the Big 12 (could be any one of 5 different teams), or the winner of the Pac 12 (if it's Arizona or Utah).

Second, the ACC is the second best conference in the country this year after the Big 12, so the odds of two teams playing so many games against high level competition and emerging with good enough records (probably 5 or fewer losses including the ACC tournament) are low. Given my firm conviction that there are only two #1 seeds up for grabs, the likelihood of two ACC teams both having better resumes than all of the most likely winners of the Big 10, Big East, Big 12, and Pac 12 seems quite low to me. Having said that, I think it is very likely that whoever wins the ACC (assuming it is one of Virginia, Duke, or Louisville) will get a #1 seed. I'm not sure what the committee would do if UNC somehow won the league... anyway, I prefer not to think about that outcome.

So, yeah, having read all of your copy/pastes, I stand by my original statements. We've made it hard on ourselves, and we need help from Virginia (or their opponents).

I think maybe the difference between us is that I view unlikely outcomes as unlikely, whereas you view them as quite possible.

[Wander]

I suspect if you were to look at teams in the final four from 2010 to now you would find a lot of freshman and sophs staring on those teams, with maybe 1 or 2 super upperclassmen.

I don't think so, actually. The only teams that I'd say relied a lot on freshmen in this period were the three Kentucky teams, Michigan 2013, and UConn 2011. So that's 5 out of 20. The rest either had pretty equal mix of underclassmen and upperclassmen or were heavily relying on upperclassmen.

[jv001]

I'm not giving up on this Duke team after only 2 games into the ACC schedule. But I'm beginning to be concerned about how Duke has played defense the last few games. I think Duke defended the perimeter very well last night but State hit some tough shots against us. However, I have noticed that Duke has been hurt by dribble penetration and poor communication. Not only last night but in past games as well. This reminds me of last years squad and how that team played defense(did not play defense). Parker and Hood our two best offensive players were at times our poorest defenders. I remember thinking they would get it on defense. After last nights game I caught myself thinking I hope this team picks up the defense and they get it. Sounds familiar. GoDuke!

[uh_no]

I don't think so, actually. The only teams that I'd say relied a lot on freshmen in this period were the three Kentucky teams, Michigan 2013, and UConn 2011. So that's 5 out of 20. The rest either had pretty equal mix of underclassmen and upperclassmen or were heavily relying on upperclassmen.

Welll....with uconn it was kemba and friends....the other 4 people on the court pretty much could have been anyone...And the next year showed they really weren't all that good

[peterjswift]

Perhaps it has been discussed elsewhere, but did any else notice how weird the game ended? The whole Rasheed stealing the ball with 5 seconds left, K shaking hands with Gottfried. Gottfried waving goodbye to our team as they left the court trying to beat the crowd rushing the floor?

I understand what Coach K was thinking regarding the rushing of the floor, just think it all looked kinda weird.

I'm also curious about this. Watching the game on TV made this exchange a little confusing. What are thoughts on Sheed stealing the ball with only a few seconds left (and then getting fouled! I was secretly hoping he'd brick the second shot, collect a rebound, and score again...)? Part of me thinks it is classless to do that, but another part of me likes the drive of someone who refuses to give up and plays to the final second. I do understand State fouling him...you'd hate to have the other team dunk undefended to end the game. Of course, the foul was more likely a result of surprise and instinct.

[Kedsy]

Yes, of course if we still have only one loss on Selection Sunday, we'll get a #1 seed. Pomeroy gives us roughly a 0.3% chance of winning all of our remaining regular season games, and if we did that, we'd probably have something like a 50% chance of winning three straight in the ACC tournament. So yeah, on the 0.15% chance that we run the table from here, we're a lock. Just like you were willing to take the under on someone else's suggestion that we could have 8 losses by tournament time, I'll take the over on 1. Let me know if you disagree.

I appreciate your snark, but I think you've misinterpreted what I'm trying to say. I don't expect us to finish the season with just 1 loss, just as I don't expect UVa to finish their season with 0 losses. As I pointed out in my earlier post, teams with 4, 5, 6, and even 7 losses have received #1 seeds in recent years. A bad loss, or even two, doesn't come close to precluding a #1 seed for Duke.


First, barring injury or some other unforeseen catastrophe, two of the #1 seeds are already spoken for: Kentucky and Gonzaga are getting them (please look at their remaining schedules before disagreeing... and then look at them again).

I don't need to look at Gonzaga's schedule to think there's a good chance they won't get a #1 seed. Right now Gonzaga is #7 in the RPI (which appears to be favored by the selection committee over Pomeroy). Their poor schedule is very likely to make their RPI go down, even if Gonzaga wins most/all of its remaining games. So I'm nowhere near convinced the Zags are locked into a #1 seed if four or five high major teams have deserving resumes.


That leaves the remaining two #1 seeds for some combination of the winner of the ACC (if it's Virginia, Duke, or Louisville), the winner of the Big 10 if it's Wisconsin, the winner of the Big East if it's Villanova, the winner of the Big 12 (could be any one of 5 different teams), or the winner of the Pac 12 (if it's Arizona or Utah).

Assuming Duke doesn't collapse (e.g., lose two or three more games to teams outside the top 40), I'll be really surprised to see Villanova or Utah or even Arizona get a #1 seed over us. I assume the Big 12 teams will beat each other up somewhat evenly, and if so I feel the same way about them. Louisville is currently ranked 25th in the RPI, so they'll need a lot of help even if they win the ACC tournament.

That leaves Wisconsin, Virginia, and Duke, again assuming nothing that currently seems very unlikely happens. Wisconsin's in a similar boat to Duke (though of course Duke has the head-to-head win). Since as I said earlier, I don't agree that Gonzaga is a lock for a #1, I think there's a real chance that all three of Duke, UVa, and Wisconsin can get #1s.


I think it is very likely that whoever wins the ACC (assuming it is one of Virginia, Duke, or Louisville) will get a #1 seed.

Doesn't this undermine your entire argument? Based on your own statement, we don't need UVa to lose an unlikely game, we just have to avoid more disaster during the regular season and then win the ACC tournament. I'm not saying that's likely (though I think it's just as likely as UVa winning the ACC tournament), but it does imply that our destiny is still in our own hands. We don't need "help" to get a #1 seed. We don't have to run the table or perform wildly unlikely feats. We just have to win some of our tough games and then win the ACC tournament.

If you think that means I have an overly rosy view of unlikely outcomes, fine. But frankly, if we lose four or five more league games and then lose in the ACC tournament, then we probably don't deserve a #1 seed anyway, and the fact that we don't get one will have very little (if anything) to do with either our losing to NC State or whether some sub-top-40 team can pull off an upset against Virginia.

[freshmanjs]

If you think that means I have an overly rosy view of unlikely outcomes, fine. But frankly, if we lose four or five more league games and then lose in the ACC tournament, then we probably don't deserve a #1 seed anyway, and the fact that we don't get one will have very little (if anything) to do with either our losing to NC State or if some sub-top-40 team can pull off an upset against Virginia.

agree and also important to keep in mind that we have the single best non conference win that any team will have this season. we also have opportunities for very impressive road wins at louisville, unc, nd, and uva. the games you win count too. tough schedule cuts both ways.

[Bay Area Duke Fan]

I'm also curious about this. Watching the game on TV made this exchange a little confusing. What are thoughts on Sheed stealing the ball with only a few seconds left (and then getting fouled! I was secretly hoping he'd brick the second shot, collect a rebound, and score again...)? Part of me thinks it is classless to do that, but another part of me likes the drive of someone who refuses to give up and plays to the final second. I do understand State fouling him...you'd hate to have the other team dunk undefended to end the game. Of course, the foul was more likely a result of surprise and instinct.

May have been another example of Rasheed not playing under control.

[Saratoga2]

Every year after Duke losses someone (actually several someones) around here make pretty much this exact comment about whatever aspect of the game Duke didn't perform well. I wish it would stop. Fact is, if any team performs poorly during the NCAAT in a major area of play, that team won't win the championship.



Seriously? We're one game behind UVa. Virginia doesn't have to "help us out a bit by dropping a couple games that they should win." All we have to do is beat them when we play them and essentially we're tied.

Also, we have only one loss. You think that won't get a #1 seed? In the past 15 years, here's how many losses it took to get a #1 seed:

3 or fewer losses: 26 teams
4 losses: 14 teams
5 losses: 9 teams
6 losses: 7 teams
7 losses: 4 teams

So in the 15-year period, 57% of #1 seeds had 4 or more losses, and 33% had 5 or more losses. I don't think a #1 seed is out of reach quite yet.



Why do you say this? Though it hasn't happened much in the past few years, if you look at the past 15 seasons, the NCAA tournament has had multiple #1 seeds from the same conference 7 times out of 15 (47%). If Duke and Virginia are two of the best four teams come Selection Sunday, there's no reason why they can't both get #1s.



Do you honestly think either Semi or Alex would have played more than a minute or two today if they'd been on our active roster?



Well, if they'd just shot 6 for 16 instead of 10 for 16, they'd have 12 less points, and they won by 12. So I don't entirely understand your 6/156 comment.



I totally agree with this.



Matt has started a grand total of one game this season, though of course it was today. I assume he started because State starts three guards and Coach K wanted to match up with them. Obviously we'll see over the next few games, but I assume the PF position is still Amile's at this point.



I don't understand this comment. Jahlil scored 23 points today, more than his season average. Why do you think State's doubling on him was so effective that it was the "blueprint for defending Duke"?

Limiting Jahlil is the approach that Wake used and UNC also used. Jahlil is a great offensive player, so he will not be totally stopped, but putting the onus on the rest of the team to perform offensively is a strategy that seemed to work. They took away the majority or our drives to the basket and also our 3 point shooting is inefficient. Meanwhile, NC States shooting and movement made it important for our guards to perform and they were unable to do so.

[kmspeaks]

So now that I am calm and have read through the whole thread, so I can avoid beat dead horses, I will venture a couple of thoughts that I haven't seen explored in depth here.

1) Bee Jay Anya has a 7'9" wingspan. That's seven feet, nine inches. He had a very good plan for using it today--not only to shoot over Okafor but to block or alter a lot of shots. Justise, Rasheed and others got stuffed multiple times. When our threes didn't fall, we tried to drive some more, usually with similar success. Against a player like Anya, it would help so much to have one or two players who can consistently hit shots from somewhere between the rim and the three-point line. But I'm not sure we do.

2) Someone mentioned upthread that Coach K was calm on the sideline and speculated that he was probably watching to see how the team would respond. I have no coaching experience (unless you count parenting), and no doubt there is some master plan behind just about everything Coach K does. But speaking strictly as a totally unqualified outsider, this is something I have seen Coach K do often [go still and seemingly withdrawn on the sideline when Duke is losing] that I really don't like. With a veteran team, okay, sometimes you just have to let them figure out whether they want to win and how to do it. But this is a very young team--maybe some more active coaching and/or more fire from the sideline would help. Gottfried was standing up most of the game, pacing, engaged, while the Duke coaches looked like a bunch of corporate executives mulling over a job candidate.

I am prepared to take a beating for comment #2--since it offers criticism of Coach K and, as I have already acknowledged, I am doubtless completely unqualified to do so. And possibly this is just a style thing and there was a lot more active coaching going on during the game than I perceived. It's just the observation of a fan.

I know others have already responded to your 2nd comment but I want to give it a shot as well. It's a valid question to ask, but I don't think it's one that we will ever be able to answer simply because we don't know the personalities of these guys other than what we see on social media or Duke Blue Planet. I have nowhere near the coaching experience of K (7 seasons compared to his 40) but between that and playing I've seen different teams and different players need different things from their coach. Some guys might need him to stand up and be a cheerleader when things aren't going well. Personally, I always wanted a coach who was calm. I've known players who respond to (and sometimes even like) being yelled at.

Like others have said I'm curious to see what happens if Duke finds itself losing grip on a game in the future. Will K respond the same or try a different tactic to see how the guys react?

[Dukehky]

I know others have already responded to your 2nd comment but I want to give it a shot as well. It's a valid question to ask, but I don't think it's one that we will ever be able to answer simply because we don't know the personalities of these guys other than what we see on social media or Duke Blue Planet. I have nowhere near the coaching experience of K (7 seasons compared to his 40) but between that and playing I've seen different teams and different players need different things from their coach. Some guys might need him to stand up and be a cheerleader when things aren't going well. Personally, I always wanted a coach who was calm. I've known players who respond to (and sometimes even like) being yelled at.

Like others have said I'm curious to see what happens if Duke finds itself losing grip on a game in the future. Will K respond the same or try a different tactic to see how the guys react?

He will not. That happens again and he will call time outs and calmly get his guys together. 2012 @UNC when they made their run in the 2nd half he gave them simple instructions and encouragement like guys, we're going to win this game as lon gas we rebound. And they stayed positive. He's the best coach of all time, he's not going to let tons of leads get out of control if they don't come all the way back to win. That would be insane.

[Kedsy]

Limiting Jahlil is the approach that Wake used and UNC also used. Jahlil is a great offensive player, so he will not be totally stopped, but putting the onus on the rest of the team to perform offensively is a strategy that seemed to work.

I think you're oversimplifying. UConn also doubled Jahlil, much more effectively than NC State did, actually, but we won that game handily. Wisconsin chose to single-cover Jahlil, and again defended him much more effectively than NC State did.

Against State, Jahlil shot 8 for 11, for 23 points. It was his 6th highest scoring game of the season. He was efficient and reasonably high volume. I just can't see how you can attribute the loss to how NC State defended Jahlil Okafor.



They took away the majority or our drives to the basket and also our 3 point shooting is inefficient.

Our three-point shooting was inefficient against NC State. In the previous 14 games, we shot 38.9% from three, which I think is very efficient.


Meanwhile, NC States shooting and movement made it important for our guards to perform and they were unable to do so.

That may be, but I'm not sure what this has to do with how NC State defended Jahlil.

[Duvall]

I don't need to look at Gonzaga's schedule to think there's a good chance they won't get a #1 seed. Right now Gonzaga is #7 in the RPI (which appears to be favored by the selection committee over Pomeroy). Their poor schedule is very likely to make their RPI go down, even if Gonzaga wins most/all of its remaining games. So I'm nowhere near convinced the Zags are locked into a #1 seed if four or five high major teams have deserving resumes.

Except that Gonzaga received a #1 seed in 2013...with an RPI of 6. (https://rpiarchive.ncaa.org/Stats%20Library/13-03-17%20Nitty%20Gritty.pdf) If Gonzaga is near the top of the rankings with a gaudy W-L record, they'll be rewarded.

[Kedsy]

Except that Gonzaga received a #1 seed in 2013...with an RPI of 6. (https://rpiarchive.ncaa.org/Stats%20Library/13-03-17%20Nitty%20Gritty.pdf) If Gonzaga is near the top of the rankings with a gaudy W-L record, they'll be rewarded.

Maybe. In 2013, going into the NCAAT, Gonzaga's RPI schedule strength was 75th, and none of the teams ahead of them in the RPI had fewer than 5 losses. If Gonzaga loses another game or two, and/or if their schedule strength is really poor (because their league foes brings it down) and/or if, say, UVa has just 3 or 4 losses and Duke and Wisconsin both win their conference tournaments, I think there's a pretty good chance Gonzaga gets bumped down to the 2-seed line.

Put another way, it's possible Gonzaga will be rewarded, but in my opinion it's far from a lock.

[Saratoga2]

I know others have already responded to your 2nd comment but I want to give it a shot as well. It's a valid question to ask, but I don't think it's one that we will ever be able to answer simply because we don't know the personalities of these guys other than what we see on social media or Duke Blue Planet. I have nowhere near the coaching experience of K (7 seasons compared to his 40) but between that and playing I've seen different teams and different players need different things from their coach. Some guys might need him to stand up and be a cheerleader when things aren't going well. Personally, I always wanted a coach who was calm. I've known players who respond to (and sometimes even like) being yelled at.

Like others have said I'm curious to see what happens if Duke finds itself losing grip on a game in the future. Will K respond the same or try a different tactic to see how the guys react?

I think coach K had shot all his bullets in the game and was resigned to the loss. He did put the press on near the end and it was effective, however, very tiring on the players. I am not a guy who believes in the Rah Rah approach to energize a team. Sometimes you have to admit the other team played better and move on to the next game.He can try to correct the defensive issue inside and he point out that our outside shooting needs to be worked on but beyond that, we are who we are (team as recruited) and that is a vulnerable team against a number of ACC opponents.

[Monmouth77]

Against State, Jahlil shot 8 for 11, for 23 points. It was his 6th highest scoring game of the season. He was efficient and reasonably high volume. I just can't see how you can attribute the loss to how NC State defended Jahlil Okafor.



I don't think you can attribute the loss solely (or even primarily) to State's effective double-teaming of Okafor-- and certainly Jahlil finished with as good a looking line in the box score as you are going to see (7-10 FT and 3 Blocks and 3 Steals to go with 23 and 11).

But.

In the key stretch that killed Duke yesterday, the defense on Jahlil -- and the way Duke responded as a team -- to my eyes, seemed to play a big role. We scored 1 basket from the field in a 7 minute stretch (from 12:14 to 5:17 in the second half) during which State scored at a regular clip.

My impression was that during this time especially, State's defense stood us up, and caused Duke to have to work very hard to get a good look. Yes -- we missed some good looks from 3. And yes, we made it easier for State to score with bad turnovers and poor help D. But we had a noticeably hard time starting our offense and getting easy shots largely because of the way Jahlil was getting bottled up in the high post. We would start our offense by passing to Jahlil in the high post and he would get swarmed and either take a bit too long to pass out to the wing or wait so long that he had to dribble out to the wing himself in desperation, and force our offense to reset 15+ seconds into the shot clock.

There are effective ways to deal with this kind of defense that I hope and expect to see us employ against Miami and Louisville this week if they try the same. Because it's not just about Jahlil getting his points, but also running the offense in rhythm with good ball movement. State took us out of what we wanted to do offensively, and it was a big factor in the game.

I think it's also worth noting that Jahlil got more points than usual from tip ins and the like (the missed Cook layup on the break in the first half comes to mind) and was not able to operate around the basket the way he likes. So yes, he was efficient, but his offensive arsenal was locked down to a significant degree.

To the point that Wisconsin defended him better-- I guess that may be true if one judges by his line in the box score, but I recall single coverage that allowed him to catch the ball deep in the post and make easy pinpoint passes out to the wing for 3s. This is the sort of thing the double-teaming is taking away-- at least the way we are responding to it now.

By the way, here is that brutal stretch I mentioned. Hide your eyes!



12:14 Justise Winslow made Three Point Jumper. Assisted by Matt Jones. 48-50
11:50 48-53 Trevor Lacey made Three Point Jumper.
11:26 Justise Winslow missed Jumper. 48-53
11:26 48-53 BeeJay Anya Block.
11:26 Matt Jones Offensive Rebound. 48-53
11:11 Foul on Rasheed Sulaimon. 48-53
11:11 Rasheed Sulaimon Turnover. 48-53
11:11 Official TV Timeout
11:01 48-55 BeeJay Anya made Jumper.
10:42 Matt Jones missed Three Point Jumper. 48-55
10:42 48-55 BeeJay Anya Defensive Rebound.
10:36 Foul on Rasheed Sulaimon. 48-55
10:14 Foul on Amile Jefferson. 48-55
10:14 48-56 BeeJay Anya made Free Throw.
10:14 48-56 BeeJay Anya missed Free Throw.
10:14 Jahlil Okafor Defensive Rebound. 48-56
9:59 48-56 Foul on Cody Martin.
9:59 Justise Winslow missed Free Throw. 48-56
9:59 48-56 Lennard Freeman Defensive Rebound.
9:39 48-56 Cody Martin Turnover.
9:39 Jahlil Okafor Steal. 48-56
9:33 48-56 Foul on Ralston Turner.
9:33 Jahlil Okafor made Free Throw. 49-56
9:33 Jahlil Okafor missed Free Throw. 49-56
9:33 49-56 NC State Deadball Team Rebound.
9:12 49-58 BeeJay Anya made Jumper.
9:04 Tyus Jones Turnover. 49-58
9:04 49-58 Anthony Barber Steal.
8:57 49-60 Lennard Freeman made Layup. Assisted by Cody Martin.
8:44 Justise Winslow missed Jumper. 49-60
8:44 49-60 BeeJay Anya Block.
8:44 49-60 Lennard Freeman Defensive Rebound.
8:33 49-60 Lennard Freeman missed Layup.
8:33 Quinn Cook Block. 49-60
8:33 49-60 NC State Offensive Rebound.
8:25 49-62 Trevor Lacey made Jumper.
8:07 Quinn Cook made Three Point Jumper. Assisted by Amile Jefferson. 52-62
7:40 52-62 Trevor Lacey missed Jumper.
7:40 52-62 Lennard Freeman Offensive Rebound.
7:40 52-64 Lennard Freeman made Two Point Tip Shot.
7:26 Quinn Cook Turnover. 52-64
7:26 52-64 Trevor Lacey Steal.
7:07 52-66 Cody Martin made Layup. Assisted by Anthony Barber.
7:01 Duke Timeout
6:53 52-66 Foul on BeeJay Anya.
6:53 Official TV Timeout
6:53 Justise Winslow missed Free Throw. 52-66
6:53 Duke Offensive Rebound. 52-66
6:42 Justise Winslow missed Three Point Jumper. 52-66
6:42 52-66 Trevor Lacey Defensive Rebound.
6:24 52-68 BeeJay Anya made Layup. Assisted by Cody Martin.
6:24 Foul on Amile Jefferson. 52-68
6:24 52-69 BeeJay Anya made Free Throw.
6:12 52-69 Foul on BeeJay Anya.
6:12 Jahlil Okafor missed Free Throw. 52-69
6:12 Duke Deadball Team Rebound. 52-69
6:12 Jahlil Okafor made Free Throw. 53-69
5:56 NC State Timeout
5:46 53-72 Trevor Lacey made Three Point Jumper.
5:33 Foul on Matt Jones. 53-72
5:33 Matt Jones Turnover. 53-72
5:33 53-72 Anthony Barber Turnover.
5:33 53-72 Foul on Anthony Barber.
5:28 53-72 Foul on BeeJay Anya.
5:28 Jahlil Okafor made Free Throw. 54-72
5:28 Jahlil Okafor made Free Throw. 55-72
5:20 55-72 Cody Martin Turnover.
5:20 Matt Jones Steal. 55-72
5:17 Quinn Cook made Layup.

[trinity92]

K mentioned post-game that we have young players who aren't accustomed to playing a team that plays very well. I felt during the game that we finally got a bit demoralized by Turner and Lacey hitting contested three after contested three and the frustration finally took its toll. Throughout, K was consistent in saying our three freshmen have to learn and experience is the only teacher.

As for divining some enduring truths about our team from this one game, K responded to an inaudible questioner that must have asked whether K was concerned about the team's toughness, K responded "No, I don't think we were as tough as we needed to be. . . . I don't think that means we're bad people, or anything." From his expression and tone, I took "bad people" to mean "inherently and irretrievably soft, with no hope of ever gutting out a tough win in a tough environment."

As unpleasant as the game was to watch, K's demeanor post-game calmed me down (although the group on this thread who were put off by K's mid-rout body language and seeming lack of anguish will probably not be soothed at all). The nice thing is, with the schedule we have coming up, we'll know in just a week or two what kind of team we have and whether Sunday was an aberration or shapes of things to come.

[Kfanarmy]

By the way, here is that brutal stretch I mentioned. Hide your eyes!



12:14 Justise Winslow made Three Point Jumper. Assisted by Matt Jones. 48-50
11:50 48-53 Trevor Lacey made Three Point Jumper.
... ... ...
5:20 Matt Jones Steal. 55-72
5:17 Quinn Cook made Layup.

I should have taken the advice and hidden my eyes...that's some ugly play by! Thanks for posting.

[Kedsy]

In the key stretch that killed Duke yesterday, the defense on Jahlil -- and the way Duke responded as a team -- to my eyes, seemed to play a big role. We scored 1 basket from the field in a 7 minute stretch (from 12:14 to 5:17 in the second half) during which State scored at a regular clip.


This is a good point that I can get on board with. The supposed value of having a good post offense (as opposed to getting "too many" points from three pointers) is that it allows you an easy score when the going gets tough. But I guess the real truth is if you rely too heavily on any one aspect of offense, and the opponent takes it away for any significant length of time, it's a problem.

But even though I agree with your point, I'm not sure that was it. During your 7 minute stretch, State outscored us by 15 points:

-- We had four turnovers and State had only two (really three, with one coming at the very end of the span). So due to turnovers they had two more possessions than we did (not counting their last turnover, which did lead to a Duke score, but then the deficit would only be 13 points). This factor led to a 4 point State advantage;

-- We missed four shots and they only missed two, leading to a 4 point State advantage;

-- They hit two threes and we only hit one, and they also had an "and one" three point play, in total leading to a 2 point State advantage;

-- We missed two front-ends of one-and-one free throw opportunities and missed two other free throws, while State only missed one free throw, leading to a 5 point State advantage.

And there it is, 4 + 4 + 2 + 5 equals 15. Maybe the turnovers were due to State's D on Jahlil, or maybe they were due to not reacting well to dropping significantly behind on the scoreboard for the first time all season. Maybe we only hit one of five shots (although we got offensive rebounds on two of our four misses) because we were flustered that Jahlil wasn't doing his thing.

Or maybe the difference was defense and missed free throws. In your 7 minute stretch, State shot 9 for 11 (and offensive rebounded both missed shots), and we gave away 6 points by missing free throws. I think that was the ball game, and neither of those factors involved State's defense on Jahlil.

[jv001]

This is a good point that I can get on board with. The supposed value of having a good post offense (as opposed to getting "too many" points from three pointers) is that it allows you an easy score when the going gets tough. But I guess the real truth is if you rely too heavily on any one aspect of offense, and the opponent takes it away for any significant length of time, it's a problem.

But even though I agree with your point, I'm not sure that was it. During your 7 minute stretch, State outscored us by 15 points:

-- We had four turnovers and State had only two (really three, with one coming at the very end of the span). So due to turnovers they had two more possessions than we did (not counting their last turnover, which did lead to a Duke score, but then the deficit would only be 13 points). This factor led to a 4 point State advantage;

-- We missed four shots and they only missed two, leading to a 4 point State advantage;

-- They hit two threes and we only hit one, and they also had an "and one" three point play, in total leading to a 2 point State advantage;

-- We missed two front-ends of one-and-one free throw opportunities and missed two other free throws, while State only missed one free throw, leading to a 5 point State advantage.

And there it is, 4 + 4 + 2 + 5 equals 15. Maybe the turnovers were due to State's D on Jahlil, or maybe they were due to not reacting well to dropping significantly behind on the scoreboard for the first time all season. Maybe we only hit one of five shots (although we got offensive rebounds on two of our four misses) because we were flustered that Jahlil wasn't doing his thing.

Or maybe the difference was defense and missed free throws. In your 7 minute stretch, State shot 9 for 11 (and offensive rebounded both missed shots), and we gave away 6 points by missing free throws. I think that was the ball game, and neither of those factors involved State's defense on Jahlil.

I think you nailed it. After watching most of the game again(I know) and slowing it down to look at our defense, I can see why we didn't beat State. Communication was poor and players just were late in switches. We had open shots and didn't hit them. State had many guarded shots and hit them. I'm not worried about the offense as much as I am the defense. I do wish Amile and Matt were better shooters. The next two games will tell me if I have reason to be concerned even more. GoDuke!

[flyingdutchdevil]

[/B]

I think you nailed it. After watching most of the game again(I know) and slowing it down to look at our defense, I can see why we didn't beat State. Communication was poor and players just were late in switches. We had open shots and didn't hit them. State had many guarded shots and hit them. I'm not worried about the offense as much as I am the defense. I do wish Amile and Matt were better shooters. The next two games will tell me if I have reason to be concerned even more. GoDuke!

We are the number 2 offensive team in the country (had been number 1 for a looooooong time). While I agree that it would be nice if Matt and Amile were better shooters, I can live with a poor mid-range from our 4 and incredibly inconsistent shooting from our wing. We have plenty of other offensive tools to compensate.

But our defense, as you said, is just not good enough right now. It absolutely needs to get better. We are a better defensive team than last year, but the question is, "by how much?". The answer is we really don't know.

[Monmouth77]

[/B]

I think you nailed it. After watching most of the game again(I know) and slowing it down to look at our defense, I can see why we didn't beat State. Communication was poor and players just were late in switches. We had open shots and didn't hit them. State had many guarded shots and hit them. I'm not worried about the offense as much as I am the defense. I do wish Amile and Matt were better shooters. The next two games will tell me if I have reason to be concerned even more. GoDuke!

Hopefully the bolded part won't be as much of an issue against Miami and Louisville's smaller guards. We had a hand in the face on Turner and Lacey on almost every shot to no avail.

[sagegrouse]

This is just mostly just food for thought and really not a debate over individual situations, but the bottom line is that I believe that the coaching reactions that you see on TV aren't necessarily a true reflection of what's really happening.

IMHO (where the H is silent), the communication that is most effective is from the position coach to the player, "Coach K would like to see you in his office tomorrow."

[Billy Dat]

This sequence was brutal:

12:14 Justise Winslow made Three Point Jumper. Assisted by Matt Jones. 48-50
11:50 48-53 Trevor Lacey made Three Point Jumper.

After Justise hit it, I said to my fellow watchers, "OK, now let's get a stop and tie this thing up...put some game pressure back on them!"

Yeah, that's what I said, for about 30 seconds (sigh)

[lotusland]

Sigh.

Allow me to correct myself.

Upperclassmen.

Better?

For what it's worth, we may 3 Senior starters next year - Sheed, Amile and MP3. They are all likely to be solid rotation players if not starters. That trio is maybe a notch below MP2, Ryan and Seth which
, imo, was the last team that was a legitimate Final Four contender. If Tyus Jones comes back next year's team could be comparable.

[devil84]

This is just mostly just food for thought and really not a debate over individual situations, but the bottom line is that I believe that the coaching reactions that you see on TV aren't necessarily a true reflection of what's really happening.IMHO (where the H is silent), the communication that is most effective is from the position coach to the player, "Coach K would like to see you in his office tomorrow."

Um, yeah, that's pretty effective.:D

Additionally, there is a lot said in practice that can be summarized in game situations by a single word or phrase that makes clear to the player(s) what would take volumes to explain to someone who isn't in practice. A look from Coach (or a player to a coach) can have the same effect, too. IOW, just because someone doesn't "look" like they are coaching doesn't mean they aren't coaching. That "resigned" look means something to the players on the team. Sometimes it means, "Are you ever going to get in that defensive stance?" Other times it means, "Keep doing what you're doing. It'll click."

[cptnflash]

Well done Keds! You out-copy/pasted me 4-3. Like I said, great to see the skills are still intact.


I appreciate your snark, but I think you've misinterpreted what I'm trying to say. I don't expect us to finish the season with just 1 loss, just as I don't expect UVa to finish their season with 0 losses.

Sorry, I must have misunderstood when you posted:


Also, we have only one loss. You think that won't get a #1 seed?

My bad on that one.


I don't need to look at Gonzaga's schedule to think there's a good chance they won't get a #1 seed.

Great point there. If I didn't look at Gonzaga's schedule, I probably wouldn't think they'd get a #1 seed either! The great part of this is that these posts will still be available for review on Selection Sunday. Which unfortunately is barely two months away! The season always goes by way too fast.


Assuming Duke doesn't collapse (e.g., lose two or three more games to teams outside the top 40), I'll be really surprised to see Villanova or Utah or even Arizona get a #1 seed over us. I assume the Big 12 teams will beat each other up somewhat evenly, and if so I feel the same way about them. Louisville is currently ranked 25th in the RPI, so they'll need a lot of help even if they win the ACC tournament.

That leaves Wisconsin, Virginia, and Duke, again assuming nothing that currently seems very unlikely happens. Wisconsin's in a similar boat to Duke (though of course Duke has the head-to-head win). Since as I said earlier, I don't agree that Gonzaga is a lock for a #1, I think there's a real chance that all three of Duke, UVa, and Wisconsin can get #1s.

So here's where you and I disagree. We could easily wind up with 4 or 5 losses by Selection Sunday without any more unexpected outcomes (i.e., losses to teams outside the top 40), and a second place finish in the ACC regular season. And while it may be unlikely that any specific team in the Big 12, Big 10 (especially with Jackson out for 6 weeks), Big East, or Pac 12 to have a better resume than us (or whoever the 2nd place ACC finisher is), the odds of one of those 10 or so teams achieving that is pretty high (i.e, someone from that group of 10 or so teams is going to outperform current expectations).


Doesn't this undermine your entire argument? Based on your own statement, we don't need UVa to lose an unlikely game, we just have to avoid more disaster during the regular season and then win the ACC tournament.

My bad for not being more clear (once again, your copy/paste skills are not to be denied!). I was referring to the ACC regular season championship, not the ACC tournament, which the committee pretty clearly views as a tiebreaker and not much more. So no, I don't think we need to just avoid disaster and then win the ACC tournament. If we finish 2 or 3 games behind UVA in the regular season (which is a reasonable expectation based on current records, team strength, and remaining schedule), winning the ACC tournament won't save us.

Bottom line (again). After yesterday's result, we need help from UVA and their opponents. The good news is, there's still plenty of time to get it! UVa is capable of losing games in which they're heavily favoured, just like we did yesterday!

But enough of our speculative banter... these posts will still be reviewable on Selection Sunday. The pitchfork scale (which I must confess I do not understand at all) suggests that you are a respected poster, whereas I clearly am not (I'm really trying to learn this copy/paste thing, I swear). So for now let's give you the benefit of the doubt... but also, let's see what happens, and come back to this discussion in March!

Just to be clear, I want to reiterate that my expectations for Kentucky and Gonzaga are contingent upon a lack of injuries (anyone who followed Duke in 2011 or 2013 knows what an injury to just ONE key player can do to a team's season). Although to be fair, Kentucky has more wiggle room there (and in fact, an injury to one or both Harrisons may actually be a positive for them).

[archand1]

As previous posters have stated, Jah was still effective with the double team brought by State. Nothing he hasn't seen before and he was still able to make an impact on this game. What really got us with the small lineup to start was the inability of Winslow and Matt to knock down open shots. (Winslow 3/13 including 1/6 from 3 land).

Another factor that absolutely killed Duke was the failure to switch in the paint. We did this well against Wisconsin, but for whatever reason seemed to become panicked and missed open players in the lane. (State's post players, 35 points, 20 boards total)

The coaches know best, obviously, but I wonder if the better adjustment for this game would have been: swapping Jefferson for Matt Jones, and Sheed for Tyus? Hindsight is 20/20 of course.

[cspan37421]

Are we going to do Stonehenge tomorrow?

[OldPhiKap]

Are we going to do Stonehenge tomorrow?

Talk about mud flaps, my girl's got 'em

[luvdahops]

Are we going to do Stonehenge tomorrow?

No, we're not going to do *** Stonehenge tomorrow!@#!&!!

On the bass, Mr. Derek Smalls. He wrote this.....