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View Full Version : MBB: Duke at NC State - Pre-Game and In-Game Thread (Jan 11, 1:30 pm ET, CBS)



JBDuke
01-09-2015, 09:08 AM
Put your pre-game and in-game thoughts here.

Tripping William
01-09-2015, 09:32 AM
Feels like I say this every year, but State is like a box of chocolates.

OldPhiKap
01-09-2015, 09:39 AM
Feels like I say this every year, but State is like a box of chocolates.

No matter which one you choose, it's the crappy fake cherry whip stuff inside?

Yick.

gumbomoop
01-09-2015, 10:24 AM
Good observation.


Feels like I say this every year, but State is like a box of chocolates.

And....


No matter which one you choose, it's the crappy fake cherry whip stuff inside?

Yick.

.... nice, um, interpretation. I appreciate OPK's economy of words here: Yick = yuck + ick. Hope State plays yicky. [Auto-correct insists the word is "yucky," but auto-correct don't know from OPK.]

CDu
01-09-2015, 12:00 PM
State has some talented players.

Trevor Lacey is one of the best talents in the ACC - a true all-around guard capable of scoring from anywhere and an able ballhandler and passer. His only knock is that he can be sloppy with the ball. Ralston Turner is, along with Lacey, a terrific 3pt shooter. Cat Barber is crazy fast and has good handles, but he doesn't have a very refined offensive game as a PG. And Beejay Anya (who went to the same high school in Baltimore as Quinn Cook) has slimmed down a lot and is a terrific shot blocker. Lenard Freeman is a great rebounder but does little else.

Aside from that, they are pretty vanilla. Kyle Washington is a stretch-4 who hasn't found a jumpshot he doesn't like. He is a decent 3pt shooter and rebounder. The Martin twins are nice role players, but bring little to the table offensively. And Abu is a freshman athletic PF with a limited offensive game.

State plays with a lot of energy but without a lot of discipline. Their offense should run through Lacey and Turner as much as possible, yet they can go several possessions with just one or two passes where those two don't even touch the ball. They aren't a terrible team, and if Turner and Lacey get hot they can hang around with teams. But they lack depth (and talent) inside, and if Anya can't stay on the floor they get killed inside.

Dukehky
01-09-2015, 12:10 PM
Scary game.

I think there is a better chance of Duke losing to State than at Louisville to be perfectly honest. We'll see.

CDu
01-09-2015, 12:23 PM
Scary game.

I think there is a better chance of Duke losing to State than at Louisville to be perfectly honest. We'll see.

Personally, I don't see it that way at all. State is just too sloppy and too weak defensively to beat us.

Bob Green
01-09-2015, 12:49 PM
State gave Virginia a battle the other night before folding down the stretch. State played nine players against the Cavaliers, but the bench contributed only nine points in 72 minutes. Duke's bench scored 17 points in 49 minutes against Wake Forest. I'm not sure whether or not bench scoring will be a factor on Sunday; however, it appears to be an area where we have an advantage over the Wolfpack.

I expect we are in for another tough road game on Sunday afternoon, which is a good thing. Winning tough road games is important to the team's development. Moreover, tough games are entertaining games.

devildeac
01-09-2015, 01:01 PM
Good thing is, don't think we'll see king karl (sniff), even for a social or farewell visit:D. Bad thing, there are a couple other officials who "appear" to be just as intolerable as he is/was.

MChambers
01-09-2015, 01:22 PM
And Beejay Anya (who went to the same high school in Baltimore as Quinn Cook) has slimmed down a lot and is a terrific shot blocker.
They both went to DeMatha, which is in Hyattsville, MD, a suburb of Washington, DC. Please don't confuse our Nation's capital and its suburbs with Charm City!

Cook transferred before his senior year.

CDu
01-09-2015, 01:27 PM
They both went to DeMatha, which is in Hyattsville, MD, a suburb of Washington, DC. Please don't confuse our Nation's capital and its suburbs with Charm City!

Cook transferred before his senior year.

Whoops, sorry about that. I know they both went to DeMatha - forgot that it was near DC not Baltimore. Thanks for the correction.

jv001
01-09-2015, 01:30 PM
I expect Lacey and Turner to shoot the 3 ball better than Wake did and I expect State to run just as much as Wake did. If that happens we will need to shoot the perimeter shot better than we shot it Wednesday night against Wake. The question is how under control will State play. I see no reason they will not be fired up to beat us and that goes for the Wolfpack fans as well. GoDuke!

flyingdutchdevil
01-09-2015, 01:32 PM
I expect Lacey and Turner to shoot the 3 ball better than Wake did and I expect State to run just as much as Wake did. If that happens we will need to shoot the perimeter shot better than we shot it Wednesday night against Wake. The question is how under control will State play. I see no reason they will not be fired up to beat us and that goes for the Wolfpack fans as well. GoDuke!

Yeah, 3pt D is gonna be key. I think this is another game where we see Amile play reduced minutes in favor of Winslow's ability to guard the 2-4. I suspect that Rasheed will also see plenty of minutes with his length.

This game will be really fun to monitor our perimeter D.

jv001
01-09-2015, 01:42 PM
Yeah, 3pt D is gonna be key. I think this is another game where we see Amile play reduced minutes in favor of Winslow's ability to guard the 2-4. I suspect that Rasheed will also see plenty of minutes with his length.

This game will be really fun to monitor our perimeter D.

You could very well be right about the minutes the players get, but Amile is not a bad perimeter defender either. Lately Coach K has not been afraid to go small. I didn't think that possible when we were discussing lineup in the offseason, but lately Amile's minutes have come down somewhat. GoDuke!

roywhite
01-09-2015, 01:43 PM
Yeah, 3pt D is gonna be key. I think this is another game where we see Amile play reduced minutes in favor of Winslow's ability to guard the 2-4. I suspect that Rasheed will also see plenty of minutes with his length.

This game will be really fun to monitor our perimeter D.

Yeah, I'm interested to see how the minutes break down. IMO, the main reason Amile is playing fewer minutes is his inability (or unwillingness) to shoot a 12 to 15-foot jumper, which is causing teams to sag off. Both Sheed and Matt should get a good look; from there, K will use them according to how effective they are.

flyingdutchdevil
01-09-2015, 01:52 PM
Yeah, I'm interested to see how the minutes break down. IMO, the main reason Amile is playing fewer minutes is his inability (or unwillingness) to shoot a 12 to 15-foot jumper, which is causing teams to sag off. Both Sheed and Matt should get a good look; from there, K will use them according to how effective they are.

You're right. But Lance wasn't great at the mid-range J either in 2010 (although a) he didn't hesitate to shoot it and b) we only had 4 perimeter players that year, including Singler) and he played plenty of minutes. IMO, I think it's a combination of his inability to shoot the J and Winslow's versatility at the forward position. Winslow has really been a god-send. You can create line-ups with the players that we have, see where the gaps are, and insert Winslow. He makes Coach K's job so much easier.

Duke3517
01-09-2015, 03:19 PM
Whoops, sorry about that. I know they both went to DeMatha - forgot that it was near DC not Baltimore. Thanks for the correction.

About 20-30 miles away from Baltimore, not too far at all. But it is only about 10 miles from DC. Don't tell Baltimore people this because they hate being affiliated with DC but they used to always say Baltimore City is just DC wannabe's. When Baltimore tried getting a football team back to Baltimore O Malley was against it saying Baltimore's team is the Redskins.

Speaking of the game, would like to see Tyus Jones step up this game. I think when he is on he is a matchup nightmare.

elvis14
01-09-2015, 03:35 PM
I expect Lacey and Turner to shoot the 3 ball better than Wake did and I expect State to run just as much as Wake did. If that happens we will need to shoot the perimeter shot better than we shot it Wednesday night against Wake. The question is how under control will State play. I see no reason they will not be fired up to beat us and that goes for the Wolfpack fans as well. GoDuke!

I don't expect State to run just as much as Wake did. We had lots of uncharacteristic turnovers and sloppy passing in the Wake game. That led to a lot of run outs and easy baskets for Wake. I don't think we'll see as many turnovers this weekend and thus State won't have the chances.


You could very well be right about the minutes the players get, but Amile is not a bad perimeter defender either. Lately Coach K has not been afraid to go small. I didn't think that possible when we were discussing lineup in the offseason, but lately Amile's minutes have come down somewhat. GoDuke!

As someone else mentioned, Amile's minutes may be coming down not because Coach K wants to go small but because Amile is forcing K to sit him. Teams have figured out that they can leave Amile alone and double down on Big Jah even when Amile has the ball. Hope that changes soon, it would make our great offense even better.

What'll be interesting to watch is if State tries to double Big Jah the way Wake did. I'd be willing to bet that the coaching staff worked with the team on those scenarios this week and that we are going to see some easy baskets off the double teams. This could be Jah hitting a cutter (Justise and Amile come to mind) going to the hoop or a case where Jah gets a hockey assist on an wide open 3 after an extra pass.

sagegrouse
01-09-2015, 03:39 PM
Yeah, I'm interested to see how the minutes break down. IMO, the main reason Amile is playing fewer minutes is his inability (or unwillingness) to shoot a 12 to 15-foot jumper, which is causing teams to sag off. Both Sheed and Matt should get a good look; from there, K will use them according to how effective they are.

Agree. It's a real advantage to have five offensive threats on the court. With Amile, we only have four.

NSDukeFan
01-09-2015, 03:50 PM
Yeah, I'm interested to see how the minutes break down. IMO, the main reason Amile is playing fewer minutes is his inability (or unwillingness) to shoot a 12 to 15-foot jumper, which is causing teams to sag off. Both Sheed and Matt should get a good look; from there, K will use them according to how effective they are.


You're right. But Lance wasn't great at the mid-range J either in 2010 (although a) he didn't hesitate to shoot it and b) we only had 4 perimeter players that year, including Singler) and he played plenty of minutes. IMO, I think it's a combination of his inability to shoot the J and Winslow's versatility at the forward position. Winslow has really been a god-send. You can create line-ups with the players that we have, see where the gaps are, and insert Winslow. He makes Coach K's job so much easier.

Like some, I have been surprised to see Amile's minutes down in the last couple of games (perhaps sample size, or perhaps trend?) Since the team's offense is the most efficient in the country all ready, I find it a bit surprising that Amile would lose minutes when his strengths are defense and communication, where the team has more room for improvement. Amile's lack of shooting willingness or ability wouldn't seem to be a huge deal when there are so many other offensive weapons and it didn't seem to be an issue last year. It didn't appear that his lack of outside shooting was a big concern last year or the start of this year, as he brings so much else to the table. I like that Justise can guard many positions, including the 4, but so can Amile.

I wonder if Okafor is such an offensive weapon that the coaching staff wants to spread the floor as much as they can to give him more room to operate, since he is somewhat of an unstoppable force (Wake game notwithstanding.) I look forward to seeing Amile's minutes go back up a bit in the coming games as I love seeing the frontcourt of Jahlil, Amile and Justise out there defensively and feel that Amile is a crafty scorer on the baseline when Okafor is doubled. The problem, of course, is that I don't want any decrease in minutes from Jahlil, Quinn, Tyus, Justise and especially Rasheed.

First world problems.

flyingdutchdevil
01-09-2015, 03:54 PM
Like some, I have been surprised to see Amile's minutes down in the last couple of games (perhaps sample size, or perhaps trend?) Since the team's offense is the most efficient in the country all ready, I find it a bit surprising that Amile would lose minutes when his strengths are defense and communication, where the team has more room for improvement. Amile's lack of shooting willingness or ability wouldn't seem to be a huge deal when there are so many other offensive weapons and it didn't seem to be an issue last year. It didn't appear that his lack of outside shooting was a big concern last year or the start of this year, as he brings so much else to the table. I like that Justise can guard many positions, including the 4, but so can Amile.

I wonder if Okafor is such an offensive weapon that the coaching staff wants to spread the floor as much as they can to give him more room to operate, since he is somewhat of an unstoppable force (Wake game notwithstanding.) I look forward to seeing Amile's minutes go back up a bit in the coming games as I love seeing the frontcourt of Jahlil, Amile and Justise out there defensively and feel that Amile is a crafty scorer on the baseline when Okafor is doubled. The problem, of course, is that I don't want any decrease in minutes from Jahlil, Quinn, Tyus, Justise and especially Rasheed.

First world problems.

Great post. Speaking of first world problems, one thing that we haven't seem much from the Oak is his ability to pass to the 4 inside, ie Amile. We've seen the Oak pass to 3pt shooters and stretch 4s, but when the opposing 4 collapses on the Oak for a double team, I can't recall passes to the 4 inside. If that happens more, Amile's offensive value shoots up, because Amile does not miss from within 4 feet.

Kedsy
01-09-2015, 04:14 PM
As someone else mentioned, Amile's minutes may be coming down not because Coach K wants to go small but because Amile is forcing K to sit him. Teams have figured out that they can leave Amile alone and double down on Big Jah even when Amile has the ball. Hope that changes soon, it would make our great offense even better.


This theory (and pretty much all the other theories about Amile's decline in minutes over the last three games) assumes that offense is more important than defense. As NSDukeFan astutely pointed out, it would be surprising if Coach K really felt that way with this year's team. I don't necessarily have a credible alternative explanation, but that doesn't mean there isn't one.

Bob Green
01-09-2015, 04:18 PM
...but when the opposing 4 collapses on the Oak for a double team, I can't recall passes to the 4 inside. If that happens more, Amile's offensive value shoots up, because Amile does not miss from within 4 feet.

I agree with your point 100 percent; however, short, interior passes require great skill to execute as there is minimal room for error at both ends of the exchange.

flyingdutchdevil
01-09-2015, 04:46 PM
This theory (and pretty much all the other theories about Amile's decline in minutes over the last three games) assumes that offense is more important than defense. As NSDukeFan astutely pointed out, it would be surprising if Coach K really felt that way with this year's team. I don't necessarily have a credible alternative explanation, but that doesn't mean there isn't one.

When Amile sits, we often see a line-up of Tyus/Quinn, M Jones, Sulaimon, Winslow, and Okafor. This is a potent on-ball defensive line-up. The line-up of Tyus/Quinn, Sulaimon/M Jones, Winslow, Amile, and Okafor adds rebounding and communication but potentially subtracts on on-ball defense, including dribble-driving, which has been a major problem.

I agree with you that Coach K prioritizing O over D is surprising, but there are many scenarios when the small line-up listed above works in our defensive favor.

Eakane
01-09-2015, 05:06 PM
I agree with your point 100 percent; however, short, interior passes require great skill to execute as there is minimal room for error at both ends of the exchange.

Absolutely agree, and this is the problem. It's a minor quibble, I suppose, especially considering that his job is primarily defense and communication, but Amile has looked unready or unable to handle some of the interior passes he's received. If it gets to the point where T. Jones/Cook and especially Jah stop passing to him for lack of confidence that he can handle the pass and do something positive with it, then he becomes a serious liability on offense. However, I have faith that Amile is gifted enough and smart enough to work this out. There were times, especially last year, where he really impressed with his ability to provide a little offense, either when teams were sagging off him too much or where we'd hit a lull offensively. I'm not sure I want him shooting every 8-12 footer he sees, but he has to remain (or become) a legitimate threat or it's 4 on 5.

sagegrouse
01-09-2015, 06:19 PM
This theory (and pretty much all the other theories about Amile's decline in minutes over the last three games) assumes that offense is more important than defense. As NSDukeFan astutely pointed out, it would be surprising if Coach K really felt that way with this year's team. I don't necessarily have a credible alternative explanation, but that doesn't mean there isn't one.

Do you think K is sending a not-so-subtle message to Amile that he's gotta shoot -- even if he misses?

jv001
01-09-2015, 07:15 PM
I think one of the reasons Amile's minutes have gone down in the last few games is because Coach K believes that Rasheed and Matt Jones can play better perimeter defense than Quinn, Tyus and Amile. However those last 3 can play decent defense and two of the three are really good offensive players. There have been games that Coach K has set Amile and Tyus down for more minutes than I thought he would. I have watched Duke basketball long enough to know that Coach K likes the 3 guard lineup and it's looking like that's the case this year as well. That means more time for the Rasheed and Matt with Justise sliding over to the 4 position. I don't look for Amile's minutes to go below 18 mpg. It's probably going to be something like 18-22 mpg. GoDuke!

77devil
01-09-2015, 09:02 PM
Whoops, sorry about that. I know they both went to DeMatha - forgot that it was near DC not Baltimore. Thanks for the correction.

You were probably thinking Dunbar a Baltimore powerhouse.

Kedsy
01-09-2015, 09:30 PM
Do you think K is sending a not-so-subtle message to Amile that he's gotta shoot -- even if he misses?

No idea. I did notice several times in the Wake game that Amile had the ball, wide open about 15 feet from the basket, went like he might shoot, then thought better of it before it could even be called a fake, gathered the ball to himself and looked around to see who he could throw it to. So I'm not denying it's an issue, I just find it hard to fathom Coach K sacrificing offense for defense with this particular team.

And to those who say that Rasheed and Matt improve our perimeter D, I think that's a more credible explanation for Amile playing less the last three games than any offense-oriented explanation, but it still doesn't factor in Amile's defensive rebounding prowess or communications skills. I suppose this should have been a Phase III question, although when I wrote the Phase III post, it wasn't an issue yet. We'll just have to wait and see how it shakes out, and if Coach K ever gives us an explanation or not.

Dukehky
01-09-2015, 10:01 PM
I think Amile has a really strong game against State. Washington is kind of a space cadet on the glass and on defense and I think that Amile can really capitalize on it. I also see Jah posting a little higher and using his quickness to beat Anya who is one of the guys in the ACC who can match his power down low. Wake did it with scheme, Anya MAY be able to do it with power, but Jah should be able to eat that dude's lunch. He hasn't played against someone with that kind of strength and length. Those types gave him some issues in high school like Cliff Alexander. Jah is in better shape now and has obviously improved, and I think he will bounce back and have a big game.

When I said earlier that they were scary, I meant it. I still think Duke will win and win handily, but I could see State giving us problems because they have really brought it the last few times they played Duke at home. Different teams though. If Tyus has a bounce back game, we will be okay.

CDu
01-09-2015, 10:12 PM
No idea. I did notice several times in the Wake game that Amile had the ball, wide open about 15 feet from the basket, went like he might shoot, then thought better of it before it could even be called a fake, gathered the ball to himself and looked around to see who he could throw it to. So I'm not denying it's an issue, I just find it hard to fathom Coach K sacrificing offense for defense with this particular team.

And to those who say that Rasheed and Matt improve our perimeter D, I think that's a more credible explanation for Amile playing less the last three games than any offense-oriented explanation, but it still doesn't factor in Amile's defensive rebounding prowess or communications skills. I suppose this should have been a Phase III question, although when I wrote the Phase III post, it wasn't an issue yet. We'll just have to wait and see how it shakes out, and if Coach K ever gives us an explanation or not.

I don't know if it is just coincidence or a contributing factor, but Jefferson's rebounding rate has also been down in this 3-game stretch. Especially his DRebs. He has gotten just two DReb in each of those games, or one every 9 minutes. In the other 11 games, he averaged nearly 5 DReb per game, and roughly one every 5 minutes.

In those same 3 games, Sulaimon got 9 defensive rebounds in only 7 more minutes. So perhaps Coach K is going with the "if Jefferson isn't rebounding for us, I will roll with the guards" approach.

jv001
01-09-2015, 10:44 PM
I don't know if it is just coincidence or a contributing factor, but Jefferson's rebounding rate has also been down in this 3-game stretch. Especially his DRebs. He has gotten just two DReb in each of those games, or one every 9 minutes. In the other 11 games, he averaged nearly 5 DReb per game, and roughly one every 5 minutes.

In those same 3 games, Sulaimon got 9 defensive rebounds in only 7 more minutes. So perhaps Coach K is going with the "if Jefferson isn't rebounding for us, I will roll with the guards" approach.

Which of these players do you think would have the best rpg? Tyus, Quinn, Rasheed, or Matt? The answer is Tyus at 3.6 rpg. Quinn is 2.5 rpg, Rasheed is 1.9, and Matt is 1.6 rpg. Tyus has the most offensive rebounds with 7, Matt has 6, Quinn has 3 and Rasheed has 1. Of course the minutes are not the same, as Quinn and Tyus have played more minutes. Just surprising that our point guard is not afraid to mix it up. GoDuke!

newclasspack
01-09-2015, 11:01 PM
Okarfor and Winslow look tired... you should rest them this game. think about the season. its a marathon not a sprint

Kedsy
01-09-2015, 11:05 PM
Which of these players do you think would have the best rpg? Tyus, Quinn, Rasheed, or Matt? The answer is Tyus at 3.6 rpg. Quinn is 2.5 rpg, Rasheed is 1.9, and Matt is 1.6 rpg. Tyus has the most offensive rebounds with 7, Matt has 6, Quinn has 3 and Rasheed has 1. Of course the minutes are not the same, as Quinn and Tyus have played more minutes. Just surprising that our point guard is not afraid to mix it up. GoDuke!

If you want to look at our guards' rebounding with a minute-independent stat, here's how they stack up in rebounding percentage:

Tyus: 11.2 def reb %; 2.7 off reb %

Quinn: 7.9 dr%; 0.8 or%

Rasheed: 11.6 dr%; 0.4 or%

Matt: 8.0 dr%; 3.5 or%

So, overall, Tyus is still the best rebounder among our guards. Rasheed has slightly better defensive rebounding, but doesn't really rebound at all on the offensive end. Matt is the best of the four at offensive rebounding, but is significantly worse than both Tyus and Rasheed on the defensive side. Quinn is the worst rebounder in the group, at least this season. His sophomore year his numbers (11.0% dr/1.9% or) were similar to Tyus's this season, but Quinn's other years were pretty much the same as what he's done so far this season, so at this point 2012-13 looks more like the fluke than what we've seen in 2014-15 to date.

Kedsy
01-09-2015, 11:07 PM
Okarfor and Winslow look tired... you should rest them this game. think about the season. its a marathon not a sprint

Funny.

jv001
01-09-2015, 11:20 PM
If you want to look at our guards' rebounding with a minute-independent stat, here's how they stack up in rebounding percentage:

Tyus: 11.2 def reb %; 2.7 off reb %

Quinn: 7.9 dr%; 0.8 or%

Rasheed: 11.6 dr%; 0.4 or%

Matt: 8.0 dr%; 3.5 or%

So, overall, Tyus is still the best rebounder among our guards. Rasheed has slightly better defensive rebounding, but doesn't really rebound at all on the offensive end. Matt is the best of the four at offensive rebounding, but is significantly worse than both Tyus and Rasheed on the defensive side. Quinn is the worst rebounder in the group, at least this season. His sophomore year his numbers (11.0% dr/1.9% or) were similar to Tyus's this season, but Quinn's other years were pretty much the same as what he's done so far this season, so at this point 2012-13 looks more like the fluke than what we've seen in 2014-15 to date.
Thanks Kedsy for the per mins break down. The numbers for Quinn surprised me, but as long as he's playing this season, I'll take the lower rebounding numbers. Plumlee has pretty good rebounding numbers as well. He's gotten 20 offensive rebounds and 19 defensive rebounds. That's in 131 minutes. Jah has 113 with 48 offensive in 375 mins. Amile has 101 with 43 offensive in 298 mins. Funny that MPIII has always been a better offensive rebounder than defensive. GoDuke!

uh_no
01-09-2015, 11:23 PM
Okarfor and Winslow look tired... you should rest them this game. think about the season. its a marathon not a sprint

hm.....has NC state been resting the past two decades hoping to be refreshed for the rest of the century :D

jv001
01-09-2015, 11:25 PM
hm.....has NC state been resting the past two decades hoping to be refreshed for the rest of the century :D

Please don't wake 'em up. They play us hard enough as it is. GoDuke!

devildeac
01-09-2015, 11:29 PM
hm.....has NC state been resting the past two decades hoping to be refreshed for the rest of the century :D

Now, now, let's be nice to our visitor. I think s/he was merely trying to figure out an amusing angle for a NCSU win on Sunday.;)

Kedsy
01-09-2015, 11:43 PM
Thanks Kedsy for the per mins break down. The numbers for Quinn surprised me, but as long as he's playing this season, I'll take the lower rebounding numbers. Plumlee has pretty good rebounding numbers as well. He's gotten 20 offensive rebounds and 19 defensive rebounds. That's in 131 minutes. Jah has 113 with 48 offensive in 375 mins. Amile has 101 with 43 offensive in 298 mins. Funny that MPIII has always been a better offensive rebounder than defensive. GoDuke!

Frontcourt rebounding percentages:

Jahlil: 19.8 dr%; 16.1 or%

Justise: 15.7 dr%; 5.5 or%

Amile: 21.1 dr%; 17.0 or%

Marshall: 16.1 dr%; 19.1 or%

As you point out, Marshall's offensive rebounding is outstanding (if he keeps it up and plays enough minutes to count, his or% would be the 2nd best ever at Duke, after only Brian Zoubek's amazing 21.6 in 2010). And three guys on one team with 16+ or% is really incredible. According to Statsheet (http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/stats/rebounds_offensive_pct?games=1&conf=acc&season=2014-2015&min=), Amile is 2nd in the ACC in offensive rebounding percentage and Jahlil is 5th. Marshall doesn't play enough to qualify but he'd be 1st in the ACC if he did (giving Duke 1st, 3rd, and 6th in the league).

However, as you allude, Marshall's defensive rebounding is more like a good small forward than a big center. FWIW, Statsheet (http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/stats/rebounds_defensive_pct?season=2014-2015&conf=acc) also says Amile is 9th in the ACC in defensive rebounding percentage, Jahlil is 15th, and Justise is 34th (again Marshall hasn't played enough to qualify, but he'd be 30th if he did).

newclasspack
01-10-2015, 12:08 AM
hm.....has NC state been resting the past two decades hoping to be refreshed for the rest of the century :DYes... Playing the Long Game.. let you have the 90s... and the 2000s and the first half of the 2010s... AND THEN WE STRIKE... hopefully.

Regardless there will be a power vacuum in the state sooner than most think.

uh_no
01-10-2015, 12:44 AM
Yes... Playing the Long Game.. let you have the 90s... and the 2000s and the first half of the 2010s... AND THEN WE STRIKE... hopefully.

Regardless there will be a power vacuum in the state sooner than most think.

as much as we plug our ears and go "lalalallala" you're probably right....roy and K can't coach forever.....the problem NCSU is going to run into is debbie yow at the helm....she bankrupted maryland, and may look for that chance at NCSU too.

newclasspack
01-10-2015, 12:50 AM
as much as we plug our ears and go "lalalallala" you're probably right....roy and K can't coach forever.....the problem NCSU is going to run into is debbie yow at the helm....she bankrupted maryland, and may look for that chance at NCSU too.... I was talking about about the fact that Chapel Hill is due for an Implosion sooner or Later.

OldPhiKap
01-10-2015, 08:39 AM
Yes... Playing the Long Game.. let you have the 90s... and the 2000s and the first half of the 2010s... AND THEN WE STRIKE.

You mean pounce like a Cat (Barber)?. (Just love that name, best in conference since Majestic Mapp at UVa).


... I was talking about about the fact that Chapel Hill is due for an Implosion sooner or Later.

From your keyboard to Mark Emmert's ears!

Things are more fun when all three Triangle teams are in the hunt -- but I would gladly settle for Duke and State to battle while the heels wallow.

CDu
01-10-2015, 08:46 AM
Frontcourt rebounding percentages:

Jahlil: 19.8 dr%; 16.1 or%

Justise: 15.7 dr%; 5.5 or%

Amile: 21.1 dr%; 17.0 or%

Marshall: 16.1 dr%; 19.1 or%

As you point out, Marshall's offensive rebounding is outstanding (if he keeps it up and plays enough minutes to count, his or% would be the 2nd best ever at Duke, after only Brian Zoubek's amazing 21.6 in 2010). And three guys on one team with 16+ or% is really incredible. According to Statsheet (http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/stats/rebounds_offensive_pct?games=1&conf=acc&season=2014-2015&min=), Amile is 2nd in the ACC in offensive rebounding percentage and Jahlil is 5th. Marshall doesn't play enough to qualify but he'd be 1st in the ACC if he did (giving Duke 1st, 3rd, and 6th in the league).

However, as you allude, Marshall's defensive rebounding is more like a good small forward than a big center. FWIW, Statsheet (http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/stats/rebounds_defensive_pct?season=2014-2015&conf=acc) also says Amile is 9th in the ACC in defensive rebounding percentage, Jahlil is 15th, and Justise is 34th (again Marshall hasn't played enough to qualify, but he'd be 30th if he did).

Some of that lower number for Plumlee is that he goes for blocks. It is difficult to be good at both shotblocking/challenging and defensive rebounding. Only truly exceptional defenders are great at both.

Some of it is just limited opportunity. If you play alongside aggressive rebounding forwards, it is difficult to keep a high rebound rate. Especially if you are also challenging shots.

Clay Feet POF
01-10-2015, 10:49 AM
It will be interesting to see if Gottfried applies Wake's Jahlil defense and how Jahlil adjusts.

jv001
01-10-2015, 10:53 AM
Some of that lower number for Plumlee is that he goes for blocks. It is difficult to be good at both shotblocking/challenging and defensive rebounding. Only truly exceptional defenders are great at both.

Some of it is just limited opportunity. If you play alongside aggressive rebounding forwards, it is difficult to keep a high rebound rate. Especially if you are also challenging shots.

Good points on Marshall. He does go for a lot of blocks and does a pretty good job at it and like you say, he's playing along side Amile and Justise at times. Plus our guards are doing a decent job of rebounding as well. My wish for MPIII is that he had better hands. He's fumbled away some passes and rebounds that he should controlled. If I'm remembering correctly, his older brother, Miles had trouble catching the ball at times, but improved by his senior year. I'm hoping that Marshall improves in that area as did Miles. GoDuke!

Henderson
01-10-2015, 10:57 AM
Yes... Playing the Long Game.. let you have the 90s... and the 2000s and the first half of the 2010s... AND THEN WE STRIKE... hopefully.

Regardless there will be a power vacuum in the state sooner than most think.

I don't know about the prediction, but I would welcome a stronger NC State and Wake to match what's already happening in the ACC. I might care later about Syracuse, but a quintet of Duke, State, Wake, Virginia, and UNC would IMHO be good for the ACC.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
01-10-2015, 11:13 AM
I don't know about the prediction, but I would welcome a stronger NC State and Wake to match what's already happening in the ACC. I might care later about Syracuse, but a quintet of Duke, State, Wake, Virginia, and UNC would IMHO be good for the ACC.

I agree with this - partly for in-state pride, and partly for "Old School ACC" pride. If we have 16 teams and 10 in the tournament, but we're missing Clemson, Wake, NCSU, and GaTech - I'm less excited.

I'm all for an NC State resurgence - just not this weekend.

jv001
01-10-2015, 11:16 AM
I agree with this - partly for in-state pride, and partly for "Old School ACC" pride. If we have 16 teams and 10 in the tournament, but we're missing Clemson, Wake, NCSU, and GaTech - I'm less excited.

I'm all for an NC State resurgence - just not this weekend.

I'm with you and Henderson on this. I like it when the Big Four(State, Wake, Duke and UNcheaters) are strong. I really like it the best when Duke is the best of the four. As I said in the poll regarding our favorite teams after Duke, NC State is my 2nd team. GoDuke!

Kedsy
01-10-2015, 02:42 PM
Some of that lower number for Plumlee is that he goes for blocks. It is difficult to be good at both shotblocking/challenging and defensive rebounding. Only truly exceptional defenders are great at both.

Some of it is just limited opportunity. If you play alongside aggressive rebounding forwards, it is difficult to keep a high rebound rate. Especially if you are also challenging shots.

Could be. More likely your first explanation than your second (in my opinion), since his defensive rebound rate has been somewhat poor for a big man all three years he's played.

For comparison's sake, Marshall has a block percentage of 9.6% and a dr% of 16.1%. He doesn't play enough to qualify for Statsheet's ACC leaders, but from Statsheet there are eight players in the ACC this season with a block percentage greater than 7%:

Anya (NCSU): 16.0 b%; 13.1 dr%
Onuaku (Lville): 12.0 b%; 18.5 dr%
Nnoko (Clem): 8.4 b%; 15.8 dr%
McCullough (Syr): 8.4 b%; 17.8 dr%
Christmas (Syr): 8.1 b%; 18.7 dr%
van Zegeran (VT): 8.0 b%; 15.8 dr%
Rountree (WF): 8.0 b%; 11.6 dr%
Meeks (UNC): 7.6 b%; 23.9 dr%

Duke hasn't had many good shotblockers in recent years, but here are all the Duke player-seasons I could find, going back to 1996-97, in which a Duke player had a block percentage greater than 5% (some of these guys didn't play very much, but I'm including them for completeness):

S Williams (2004): 10.6 b%; 22.0 dr%
Mar Plumlee (2015): 9.6 b%; 16.1 dr%
Sanders (2000): 9.6 b%; 9.6 dr%
S Williams (2006): 9.4 b%; 23.4 dr%
S Williams (2005): 9.1 b%; 22.0 dr%
Sanders (2003): 8.5 b%; 18.2 dr%
Randolph (2004): 7.9 b%; 13.8 dr%
Thompson (2003): 7.9 b%; 5.7 dr%
S Williams (2003): 7.6 b%; 19.8 dr%
Mi Plumlee (2009): 7.0 b%; 14.8 dr%
Sanders (2001): 7.0 b%; 7.8 dr%
McRoberts (2007): 6.8 b%; 19.4 dr%
Mar Plumlee (2014): 6.6 b%; 14.1 dr%
Randolph (2005): 6.6 b%; 12.8 dr%
Brand (1999): 6.3 b%; 20.5 dr%
Randolph (2003): 6.3 b%; 19.3 dr%
Zoubek (2009): 6.3 b%; 18.9 dr%
Sanders (2002): 6.2 b%; 12.1 dr%
Kelly (2010): 6.0 b%; 15.6 dr%
Mas Plumlee (2010): 6.0 b%; 15.1 dr%
Kelly (2011): 6.0 b%; 13.4 dr%
Zoubek (2008): 5.8 b%; 19.5 dr%
Domzalski (1997): 5.8 b%; 12.1 dr%
Mas Plumlee (2011): 5.7 b%; 23.3 dr%
Domzalski (1999): 5.7 b%; 17.8 dr%
Mar Plumlee (2013): 5.7 b%; 13.4 dr%
Battier (1998): 5.6 b%; 17.5 dr%
Horvath (2002): 5.4 b%; 20.0 dr%
Battier (2001): 5.4 b%; 14.5 dr%
Okafor (2015): 5.3 b%; 19.8 dr%
Kelly (2013): 5.3 b%; 14.3 dr%
Mas Plumlee (2012): 5.1 b%; 24.4 dr%
Brand (1998): 5.1 b%; 17.4 dr%
Domzalski (1998): 5.0 b%; 18.9 dr%

A lot of guys on these lists were worse defensive rebounders than Marshall, but a lot were better, too. Not sure how good a correlation it is, but I guess it's possible there is one.

CDu
01-10-2015, 02:55 PM
Could be. More likely your first explanation than your second (in my opinion), since his defensive rebound rate has been somewhat poor for a big man all three years he's played.

For comparison's sake, Marshall has a block percentage of 9.6% and a dr% of 16.1%. He doesn't play enough to qualify for Statsheet's ACC leaders, but from Statsheet there are eight players in the ACC this season with a block percentage greater than 7%:

A lot of guys on these lists were worse defensive rebounders than Marshall, but a lot were better, too. Not sure how good a correlation it is, but I guess it's possible there is one.

I think it is a little of both, but more of the shotblocking part than the teammates. Notice that, on the Duke list, only Williams (exceptional defender) had a similar block rate and better rebound rate. and on the ACC list, only Onuaku (another terrific defender) has a higher rebound rate and notably higher combined block and rebound rate.

Kedsy
01-10-2015, 03:10 PM
I think it is a little of both, but more of the shotblocking part than the teammates. Notice that, on the Duke list, only Williams (exceptional defender) had a similar block rate and better rebound rate. and on the ACC list, only Onuaku (another terrific defender) has a higher rebound rate and notably higher combined block and rebound rate.

Well, there are only two guys on the ACC list with a higher block percentage than Marshall and both of them have a higher combined block + rebound rate, so I don't think that tells us much. And on the Duke list, there are only two guys who have had comparable block rates to what Marshall's putting up this year -- one was a better rebounder and one worse. So that sort of comparison suffers from very low sample size on both counts. That said, you may be right about having to be a really good defender to do both, I'm just not sure. Is Kennedy Meeks a really good defender?

Also, Marshall was a good shotblocker his first two years at Duke (though not nearly as good as he's been this season), and his defensive rebound rate was even worse in those years than it is now. If you look at the Duke player-seasons with block rates similar to Marshall's 2014 rate of 6.6%, a good number of them had better defensive rebound rates.

I guess I'd amend your statement to say it's a bit of three things: shotblocking; teammates; and just not being that good a defensive rebounder.

CDu
01-10-2015, 03:29 PM
Well, there are only two guys on the ACC list with a higher block percentage than Marshall and both of them have a higher combined block + rebound rate, so I don't think that tells us much.

I disagree. One of the two guys who was better as a shotblocker was also worse as a rebounder. And again, only those two guys had notably higher combined block/rebound rates. So the point stands that you have to be exceptional to block at a high rate and rebound at a high rate. I think the fact that, of the guys who block a lot of shots, none have noticeably higher combined rates confirms that argument.

And notice again that all but three of those top shotblockers is a mediocre or below-average defensive rebounder for a big. Again - if you block a lot of shots, you almost certainly aren't going to also be a strong defensive rebounder. There are some guys who are better at the combo than Plumlee, but not many and not by much. And all of them take a hit on their defensive rebound numbers to get those blocks.


And on the Duke list, there are only two guys who have had comparable block rates to what Marshall's putting up this year -- one was a better rebounder and one worse.

The one who was better is perhaps the best all-around post defender in Duke history. So I don't think that's a very fair comparison.


That said, you may be right about having to be a really good defender to do both, I'm just not sure. Is Kennedy Meeks a really good defender?

Meeks is an exceptional rebounder and long-armed shotblocker. He's not a good overall defender, but his size and length make him good at both blocking shots and rebounding. If you get near the rim, there is a good chance he'll alter your shot and a solid chance he'll get the rebound. And again, he's a better offensive rebounder than defensive rebounder, in large part because he blocks shots.


Also, Marshall was a good shotblocker his first two years at Duke (though not nearly as good as he's been this season), and his defensive rebound rate was even worse in those years than it is now. If you look at the Duke player-seasons with block rates similar to Marshall's 2014 rate of 6.6%, a good number of them had better defensive rebound rates.

Well, Plumlee is a better player now than he was as a redshirt freshman and redshirt sophomore. He's better both as a shotblocker and as a rebounder. If we were talking about last year or year before Plumlee, I'd wholeheartedly agree - he was a bad defensive rebounder. But he has improved both as a shotblocker and rebounder.


I guess I'd amend your statement to say it's a bit of three things: shotblocking; teammates; and just not being that good a defensive rebounder.

I'd say it's mostly the first, a little of the second, and only possibly some of the third. I just don't see another reason why he'd be an elite offensive rebounder and mediocre defensive rebounder.

vick
01-10-2015, 04:00 PM
I'd say it's mostly the first, a little of the second, and only possibly some of the third. I just don't see another reason why he'd be an elite offensive rebounder and mediocre defensive rebounder.

Offensive and defensive rebounding really aren't all that correlated, either at the team or individual level. It wouldn't be that mysterious for Plumlee to be a very good offensive rebounder and mediocre (but improving) defensive rebounder, and I don't think it's just due to him being a shot blocker--he's frequently out of position defensively, which is going to cause you to collect fewer defensive rebounds.

CDu
01-10-2015, 04:05 PM
Offensive and defensive rebounding really aren't all that correlated, either at the team or individual level. It wouldn't be that mysterious for Plumlee to be a very good offensive rebounder and mediocre (but improving) defensive rebounder, and I don't think it's just due to him being a shot blocker--he's frequently out of position defensively, which is going to cause you to collect fewer defensive rebounds.

The reason he is often out of position is because he is going for blocks. That is precisely the reason why good shotblockers are so rarely also good defensive rebounders. It is just really hard to do both well, because committing to one weakens your chances at the other.

Kedsy
01-10-2015, 04:20 PM
And again, only those two guys had notably higher combined block/rebound rates. So the point stands that you have to be exceptional to block at a high rate and rebound at a high rate. I think the fact that, of the guys who block a lot of shots, none have noticeably higher combined rates confirms that argument.

I guess it depends on your definition of "notably"/"noticeably" Here's the list, Marshall included, with combined totals:

Meeks, 31.5
Onuaku, 30.5
Anya, 29.1
Christmas, 26.8
McCullough, 26.2
Plumlee, 25.7
Nnoko, 24.2
van Zegaran, 23.8
Rountree, 19.6

I'd say three of the eight have noticeably higher combined rates than Marshall, and five of the eight are higher, period.


Again - if you block a lot of shots, you almost certainly aren't going to also be a strong defensive rebounder.

I agree it's more difficult. I wouldn't say "almost certainly" in the above sentence, because there are plenty of players in the country who are both strong at blocking shots and defensive rebounding.



Meeks is an exceptional rebounder and long-armed shotblocker. He's not a good overall defender, but his size and length make him good at both blocking shots and rebounding. If you get near the rim, there is a good chance he'll alter your shot and a solid chance he'll get the rebound. And again, he's a better offensive rebounder than defensive rebounder, in large part because he blocks shots.

Now, it seems to me you're reversing your argument. Almost all shotblockers have good size and/or good length. If Meeks can do it being a subpar defender, then why can't Marshall?

Also, Meeks's current defensive rebounding percentage would be first on Duke's team by a decent margin. His offensive rebounding percentage would be fourth on Duke's team. So I'm not sure why you say he's a better offensive rebounder than defensive rebounder.



Well, Plumlee is a better player now than he was as a redshirt freshman and redshirt sophomore. He's better both as a shotblocker and as a rebounder. If we were talking about last year or year before Plumlee, I'd wholeheartedly agree - he was a bad defensive rebounder. But he has improved both as a shotblocker and rebounder.

I agree with all this. He has improved, in almost all facets of the game. I'm not sure he's improved enough to be called a decent defensive rebounder, however.

That said, I totally acknowledge your point that blocking shots makes it harder to get defensive rebounds, and think Marshall's numbers do need to be analyzed with that in mind, and he's probably not as bad a defensive rebounder as I've thought he was. So I'm not disagreeing with your main, overall point.



I just don't see another reason why he'd be an elite offensive rebounder and mediocre defensive rebounder.

Offensive rebounding and defensive rebounding are different skills. Defensive rebounding relies heavily on positioning, boxing out, and protecting your inside position, while offensive rebounding relies more on being able to anticipate where the ball's going and slashing to the spot. I mean, they're loosely related, but I can easily see someone being really good at one and just OK at the other.

vick
01-10-2015, 04:33 PM
The reason he is often out of position is because he is going for blocks. That is precisely the reason why good shotblockers are so rarely also good defensive rebounders. It is just really hard to do both well, because committing to one weakens your chances at the other.

It's a reason, I do not believe that it's the only reason.

Just as a very quick check, I took data (http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&year_min=2010&year_max=2014&conf_id=acc&school_id=&class_is_fr=Y&class_is_so=Y&class_is_jr=Y&class_is_sr=Y&pos_is_g=Y&pos_is_gf=Y&pos_is_f=Y&pos_is_fg=Y&pos_is_fc=Y&pos_is_c=Y&pos_is_cf=Y&games_type=A&qual=trb_per_g&c1stat=&c1comp=gt&c1val=&c2stat=&c2comp=gt&c2val=&c3stat=&c3comp=gt&c3val=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&order_by=trb_pct) from 2010-2014 (so 5 full seasons) for the top 100 rebounders in the ACC. Here's a graph comparing offensive minus defensive rebounding percentage (i.e., higher positive numbers for a player--like Plumlee--who is stronger at offensive than defensive rebounding) and block percentage. It's basically an uncorrelated cloud of points, with Marshall's 2014 campaign being one of very few examples of a player having more offensive than defensive rebounds.

4637

I mean, I don't doubt that Plumlee's going for blocks and playing alongside an exceptional rebounder like Amile diminish his stats, but I don't think it can really be the only reasons.

But stepping away from stats for a second (I hear some sighs of relief)--just watching games, does it really look to you like the only times, or even the primary times, that Plumlee is out of position defensively is when he's getting a block? You have a better eye for these things than I do, but it sure doesn't look like that to me. I'd say he's a great offensive rebounder, and has improved from a poor/mediocre defensive rebounder (by ACC standards) to a solid but unexceptional one, even accounting for blocks and teammates, and a large part of the reason he isn't that great is that he's not a super-disciplined defender (along with the fact that, like his brothers, his hands are not great for a player his size).

CDu
01-10-2015, 04:42 PM
Kedsy, I think you are missing the point. Are there players who do a better job than Plumlee? Sure. Three guys clearly do and two more do so slightly but in no way significantly.

My point is not and has never been that Plumlee is the best at it. So finding three (or five) guys in the ACC that do it as well or better is irrelevant.

My point is that really good shotblockers are also rarely really good defensive rebounders. And as such, Plumlee's rebounding rate is explained by his shotblocking tendancies. He is committing to trying to block shots, and in doing so makes it less likely he will get the defensive rebound.

So I would say that all if the stats you have provided prove my point. The best shotblockers tend to not be great defensive rebounders. Your list of ACC guys includes one guy with a great defensive rebound rate and a couple of guys with okay rates. It is just uncommon for a guy to be good at both.

My point is not that Plumlee is a great defensive rebounder. He is not. My point is that, given that he is committed to shotblocking, he is an adequate defensive rebounder. And since he is in the middle of that pack on the list of shot blockers, I would say that supports my point.

If he didn't try to block a lot of shots, I would expect him to be middle of the road as a defensive rebounders. But instead, he blocks a lot of shots and thus has a below-average rebound rate.

Henderson
01-10-2015, 06:31 PM
It's basically an uncorrelated cloud of points.


But stepping away from stats for a second (I hear some sighs of relief).

I'm sorry, was I snoring? I'm usually better at uncorrelated clouds of points. My bad; carry on.

tele
01-11-2015, 02:49 AM
I'm usually better at uncorrelated clouds of points. .

Sounds like a zen thing.

I think it is an interesting discussion though. My guess is that while going for blocks does often result in giving up defensive rebounding position to some extent, it is even more demonstrated when the player is going for blocks as a help defender, which Plumlee often does. i haven't seen a stat on how many of mp3's blocks are when he is rotating in Duke's help defense, away from his man and his "normal" defensive rebounding block out responsibility, to shotblock another defenders man's shot, but I'd say it is a fair number. And I can't help but think of all the mp3 attempted blocks when he is not even the 1'st rotating defender, but goes for the block from behind a first rotating Duke defender. Okafor doesn't do this, but Winslow does.

On offensive rebounds, this may be a negative correlation with offensive usage and an artifact of spacing. Which also somewhat explains the hands problem. If you're not expecting the ball, you're not looking for it, so can't catch it. The passer thinks the big is going to the rim looking for the ball and to score, but the big may be heading for offensive rebounding position anticipating a shot from his team mate from the perimeter, not looking for the ball and to score at all. Low usage conditioning. With Duke's offensive spacing and the long rebounds it produces a big that isn't tied to establishing offensive post position as a top offensive option. then is free to move to collect more long rebounds than a big tied to the post. If you were able to look at the number of offensive long rebounds mp3 gets vs o rebounds resulting from battling for rebounding position against his man in the post, I think you would see this too. But again, I haven't seen this charted anywhere.

Bob Green
01-11-2015, 06:33 AM
Vegas has Duke favored by 9.5 points. We will need to aggressively guard the 3-point line today to ensure Ralston Turner and/or Trevor Stacey do not get hot. They both shoot over 40% from behind the arc.

CDu
01-11-2015, 09:13 AM
But stepping away from stats for a second (I hear some sighs of relief)--just watching games, does it really look to you like the only times, or even the primary times, that Plumlee is out of position defensively is when he's getting a block? You have a better eye for these things than I do, but it sure doesn't look like that to me. I'd say he's a great offensive rebounder, and has improved from a poor/mediocre defensive rebounder (by ACC standards) to a solid but unexceptional one, even accounting for blocks and teammates, and a large part of the reason he isn't that great is that he's not a super-disciplined defender (along with the fact that, like his brothers, his hands are not great for a player his size).

First, I never said it was the only reason. Just the primary reason.

And yes, I DO think that attempting blocks accounts for the vast majority of times Plumlee is out of position. Because when he isn't going for blocks, he is actually extremely diligent at boxing out.

As I said in my previous post, I do think Plumlee is a strong defensive rebounder. I think he is a adequate defensive rebounder whose rebound rate suffers because he is a good shotblocker (because going for blocks tends to force you out of good rebounding position).

And honestly, I am not sure why this is being met with such resistance. If you are trying to block shots, you are actively not boxing out. You are also generally facing away from the basket and airborne (often jumping away from the basket too). That is quite obviously putting you in bad position for rebounds.

davekay1971
01-11-2015, 09:24 AM
State is an interesting team this season and, IMHO, a pretty darn good coaching job by Gottfried. There's not a star on the team, but they have a collection of good role players who know their roles. They are very dependent on Lacey and Turner for scoring. Both of those guys are good scorers, and both can get hot...or be off their game. If both of those guys have off nights the same night, it would be ugly for State. Hopefully that will only happen to the Pack when they play Duke this season. Barber is developing well as a point guard. He's quick, neither a great scorer or setup man, but pretty good at both. Anya has gotten into much better shape, which is to say he's still overweight and soft, but much less so than last year. He's a good rebounder and shot blocker, though he will be outclassed by Jah today in just about every measurable statistic except weight. State's forwards seem like interchangeable parts to me, all solid players. The Martin twins have talent and potential, and I can see Caleb becoming a very good ACC player. I guess Cody is the +1 in the recruiting deal, but he's been getting more playing time lately, so we may see a set of twins in red jerseys for awhile.

Duke should win, even though we're playing in their house. We're just more talented than State. But we can't underestimate the Pack. State has laid a couple of stinkers this season (terrible, lethargic play in losses to Wofford and Cincinnati), but they played a very good game at Charlottesville, and is in the middle of a UVa-Duke-UNC stretch that no one should envy. Hopefully they'll end that stretch 1-2!

riverside6
01-11-2015, 01:20 PM
Live tempo-based stats for Duke/NC State, starters posted...

http://www.scacchoops.com/duke-at-nc-state-basketball-live-stats-01112015

-jk
01-11-2015, 01:21 PM
DBR Chat (http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/misc.php?do=cchatbox) is open!

If it gets a bit slow, refresh the page. As always - please follow the DBR Posting Guidelines.

Let's Go Duke! Beat the Wuffies!

-jk

DevilWearsPrada
01-11-2015, 01:38 PM
Let's Go Duke!!!! Beat the Wuffies!!! CBS 130

The Girls game is on Fox Sports vs FSU. It started at 1pm 31/20 Duke with about 4 minutes in the 1st half.

Go Duke!!!

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
01-11-2015, 01:44 PM
Jahlil pump fake at 15 min mark

mattman91
01-11-2015, 01:47 PM
Culture vs. Agriculture

Karl Beem
01-11-2015, 02:14 PM
Outrageous choking by Duke, announcers cheering on the pack.

Karl Beem
01-11-2015, 02:17 PM
Every call for the Pack.

CR9
01-11-2015, 02:24 PM
Did they really score 4 points in the last 8 minutes of that half?

gcashwell
01-11-2015, 02:28 PM
Duke drives me nuts when something doesn't work and they just keep doing it. How many easy baskets did state get when we were trying to double team?

6th Man
01-11-2015, 02:39 PM
They are making us pay for the double team, but so far we haven't done the same. Need to match their intensity this half. State is hitting tough shots.

gocanes0506
01-11-2015, 02:40 PM
Aint gonna win many games when guys like washington are just throwing up shots and they swishing

CR9
01-11-2015, 02:45 PM
Aint gonna win many games when guys like washington are just throwing up shots and they swishing

It's honestly a joke. Everything they're throwing up is going in. Ridiculous.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
01-11-2015, 02:46 PM
We have to hit some threes to draw NCSU out of the lane. They are packing it so tight there's no room for Jah to direct traffic.

Kjeffrey
01-11-2015, 02:49 PM
NC State may be hitting their shots but Duke is losing this game because they are playing weak defense and aren't running offense. The Wolfpack is taking uncontested shots and Okafor is ineffective on double teams. Seth Davis made a great point at the half. Why is Duke surprised this is the defense their opponent is running?

arnie
01-11-2015, 02:52 PM
We have to hit some threes to draw NCSU out of the lane. They are packing it so tight there's no room for Jah to direct traffic.

Yep stone cold on wide open 3s. Not gonna beat solid teams missing constantly. State is not a great defensive team.

CR9
01-11-2015, 02:54 PM
8/12 from 3. This is stupid.

Wildling
01-11-2015, 02:59 PM
These refs are atrocious.

wavedukefan70s
01-11-2015, 03:00 PM
Wow.considering we are only down five.it feels like 20.

wavedukefan70s
01-11-2015, 03:01 PM
These refs are atrocious.

That would be a complement .

devildeac
01-11-2015, 03:01 PM
we want hess back cuz eades is light years worse

SCMatt33
01-11-2015, 03:02 PM
I think state is 9-13 from three or thereabouts. I'm sure Duke could not play defense and that won't happen again in the next five years, let alone the shots their making. Need to not let it rattle the team on the other end though. Clearly the freshman are having a bit of trouble with the emotional effects of it. Credit to still be in striking distance

arnie
01-11-2015, 03:05 PM
Wow.considering we are only down five.it feels like 20.

This could be blowout if we don't figure out their D.

Wildling
01-11-2015, 03:08 PM
This could be blowout if we don't figure out they're D.

True. They seem befuddled once the double team comes to Okafor.

wavedukefan70s
01-11-2015, 03:09 PM
This could be blowout if we don't figure out their D.

I fear you may be correct.

wavedukefan70s
01-11-2015, 03:10 PM
Our body language isn't good right now.

Bay Area Duke Fan
01-11-2015, 03:12 PM
These refs are atrocious.

Refs aren't what's beating Duke this afternoon.

Kjeffrey
01-11-2015, 03:13 PM
Is there a reason Coach K is allowing this to go on? Clearly the guys on the floor are having a very hard time. Somedays you have it and some you don't but make a change. Besides, if they are having a hard time with this road game, what is going to happen when they travel to Louisville, Virginia and Notre Dame? Yikes!

SCMatt33
01-11-2015, 03:14 PM
I asked this question last year, and while it's been relevant for much of the year, this year. Duke hasn't been burned by it until today. What's the virtue of a high pressure defense that doesn't force turnovers. Duke's season rate is 20.5%. That's not counting today. That is less than 1% above the national average. For all that you have to give up to pressure the ball (a higher chance of easy buckets, foul potential, spending more energy throughout the game), why do it if you're not getting the one supposed benefit on the other end, which is turnovers.

Wildling
01-11-2015, 03:14 PM
Refs aren't what's beating Duke this afternoon.

I didn't say they were.

kmspeaks
01-11-2015, 03:15 PM
Our body language isn't good right now.

Maybe not but can you really blame them? Guys are hitting step back threes with a hand in their face, we're blocking shots or knocking balls lose and they're hitting NC State guys between the numbers, it feels like State could play offense with their eyes closed right now.

wavedukefan70s
01-11-2015, 03:16 PM
Refs aren't what's beating Duke this afternoon.

State looks confident.we look bad.

kmspeaks
01-11-2015, 03:18 PM
Did somebody at Mercer pay this clown with a mic to see how many times he could mention that game today?

Kjeffrey
01-11-2015, 03:18 PM
I asked this question last year, and while it's been relevant for much of the year, this year. Duke hasn't been burned by it until today. What's the virtue of a high pressure defense that doesn't force turnovers. Duke's season rate is 20.5%. That's not counting today. That is less than 1% above the national average. For all that you have to give up to pressure the ball (a higher chance of easy buckets, foul potential, spending more energy throughout the game), why do it if you're not getting the one supposed benefit on the other end, which is turnovers.

Based on today's game there doesn't seem to be any merit in their defense. Too much energy output with little to no payoff. Zone certainly wouldn't work today based on how they are shooting but status quo is not getting it done.

arnie
01-11-2015, 03:19 PM
I asked this question last year, and while it's been relevant for much of the year, this year. Duke hasn't been burned by it until today. What's the virtue of a high pressure defense that doesn't force turnovers. Duke's season rate is 20.5%. That's not counting today. That is less than 1% above the national average. For all that you have to give up to pressure the ball (a higher chance of easy buckets, foul potential, spending more energy throughout the game), why do it if you're not getting the one supposed benefit on the other end, which is turnovers.

Excellent questions- coupled with the Wake game, think we're seeing big chinks in the armor. Great teams don't look like this even on bad days.

Kjeffrey
01-11-2015, 03:21 PM
Excellent questions- coupled with the Wake game, think we're seeing big chinks in the armor. Great teams don't look like this even on bad days.

Great point. Kentucky has not played well recently but the end result was very different.

dukelion
01-11-2015, 03:21 PM
I asked this question last year, and while it's been relevant for much of the year, this year. Duke hasn't been burned by it until today. What's the virtue of a high pressure defense that doesn't force turnovers. Duke's season rate is 20.5%. That's not counting today. That is less than 1% above the national average. For all that you have to give up to pressure the ball (a higher chance of easy buckets, foul potential, spending more energy throughout the game), why do it if you're not getting the one supposed benefit on the other end, which is turnovers.


Completely agree.

It costs us more points than it prevents. Especially easy buckets by giving teams odd man situations which are totally unnecessary.

As for this game.......they're shooting 70% from 3.....most of which were contested shots.

Tough to win against that.

Duke3517
01-11-2015, 03:22 PM
Not watching the game just following it on internet... What is going on with Tyus Jones?

Channing
01-11-2015, 03:23 PM
Our guys just seem slower than theirs today. They are beating us off the bounce and beating us to the spot when we are on offense. Hopefully we can make a run, but if we can't this is certainly good film to teach the guys abt acc play and how you have to bring 110 percent each game

kaufmjo
01-11-2015, 03:24 PM
Great packers/Cowboys game on Now. Next play

Devilwin
01-11-2015, 03:24 PM
Frustrating... Very much so. No way we are number 2 in the nation. This is pitiful to watch.

Wildling
01-11-2015, 03:25 PM
At least now, the kids are showing some fight. I can live with that if they lose.

MaxAMillion
01-11-2015, 03:25 PM
Great point. Kentucky has not played well recently but the end result was very different.

UK lost 11 games last year but that didn't matter.

wavedukefan70s
01-11-2015, 03:26 PM
Thats what I wanted to see .some heart.

Kjeffrey
01-11-2015, 03:27 PM
UK lost 11 games last year but that didn't matter.

I was referring to their poor play the past week and their ability to win in spite of that.

Wildling
01-11-2015, 03:30 PM
Not watching the game just following it on internet... What is going on with Tyus Jones?
Ineffective. I think coach see's that and hasn't given him any run in the last 5-8 minutes of the game.

Philadukie
01-11-2015, 03:33 PM
Frustrating... Very much so. No way we are number 2 in the nation. This is pitiful to watch.

We are. Don't sweat it.

Yeah, we've had a hard time in many areas, but you what the stat of the game is? 10/14. Remember that number. When you're playing pretty good D, and you just keep watching the ball go through the net from deep, you begin to lose focus and intensity on both ends of the floor. It's starts to feel like you can do nothing right.
Believe me, I've been there (not at this level, but still).

And as I write this, we're making a nice run. Even if we likely lose at this point (just looking at the time and score), I still believe we are one of the best teams in the country and will have a great chance in March.