Kentucky's Alex Poythress tears ACL

[Oriole Way]

Unfortunate news for Poythress. But this development could benefit Duke's championship chances.

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/ncaab-the-dagger/report--kentucky-s-alex-poythress-tears-his-acl-072354890.html

[Edouble]

Wow. Huge development. Couldn't come at a worse time for a 40-0 seeking Wildcat team with (sleeping giant?) UNC on Saturday with nothing to lose.

[DukeDevil]

That's really sad, especially so since he postponed the draft to try to build his stock. Was curious and someone on inside carolina posted it as "good news for you tarheel fans." To be fair to them, whoever it was seemed to be a visiting fan most of the responses were that "an injury is never good news"...so good on them? (throwing up a little for even slightly complimenting a carolina fan)

[bob blue devil]

Unfortunate news for Poythress. But this development could benefit Duke's championship chances.

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/ncaab-the-dagger/report--kentucky-s-alex-poythress-tears-his-acl-072354890.html

very unfortunate news. i hope he has a speedy recovery and this is only a speed bump on his way to his dreams.

despite the hype duke and kentucky were and are very unlikely to meet this year.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Hate to see injuries - especially ones that can threaten someone's career. If I remember, Duke was a finalist for Alex. When he is "on," his physicality makes him look like a man among boys.

Best of luck to him with his recovery,

[Skitzle]

Hate to see injuries - especially ones that can threaten someone's career. If I remember, Duke was a finalist for Alex. When he is "on," his physicality makes him look like a man among boys.

Best of luck to him with his recovery,

I remember hearing that Alex's first choice was Duke, but we were waiting on Shabazz Mohammed and never showed sufficient interest. Same thing happened with Perry Ellis at Kansas.

Ultimately, that Scholly went to Amile Jefferson, so I'm cool with it.

Get well soon AP

[NYBri]

Sorry to read this....and just after reading Feather's front page column.

[Indoor66]

It always is sad when a young man or woman has an injury. My prayers to him for a full recovery and successful career.

[OldPhiKap]

Sorry to hear this, I hope for a full recovery.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Sorry to read this....and just after reading Feather's front page column.

I actually wondered why Alex wan't mentioned in the article. As usual Featherston is at least a half step ahead of me.

[MCFinARL]

I remember hearing that Alex's first choice was Duke, but we were waiting on Shabazz Mohammed and never showed sufficient interest. Same thing happened with Perry Ellis at Kansas.

Ultimately, that Scholly went to Amile Jefferson, so I'm cool with it.

Get well soon AP

Don't know if it really affected the recruitment, but Alex Poythress was the player who spoke to Coach K on the phone (http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/6821223/mike-krzyzewski-contact-recruit-came-events-source-says) from a tournament site, thus leading to a possible NCAA rule violation.


In any case, this is terrible news. I remember vividly how well Alex Poythress played against Duke in the 2012 Champions Classic. Since then, his Kentucky career hasn't fully lived up to that promise, but he has been sticking with it and working hard--and paying attention to academics as well, since his is, according to his Kentucky bio, a two-time member of the SEC All-Academic team. This is a really bad stroke of luck.

Here's hoping for a swift, full recovery and a chance to get back on track for a professional career.

[wilko]

Too bad for Poythress.
I liked him. Wish we could have gotten him - but I remember something about *contact in a dead period* (?) Between him and Duke. Then UK wailed to the skies and we dropped him. At least that was my recollection...

Best of luck to him for a full recovery.

[jipops]

Yes, very sad news for Alex, who by all accounts seems to be a very solid kid and student.

I believe he has one year of eligibility left correct? Hopefully he is able to get through this and have a monster senior year, except against Duke of course.

[grad_devil]

This is terrible news for Poythress. My thoughts and prayers are with him as he begins the recovery process.

It does, however, bring up an interesting development. How will Cal modify his vaunted platoon system?

[dukelifer]

Unfortunate news for Poythress. But this development could benefit Duke's championship chances.

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/ncaab-the-dagger/report--kentucky-s-alex-poythress-tears-his-acl-072354890.html

Always tough to see a kid go down to injury. It is a long season and all teams hope that they can make it through without something bad happening to a player. You never know.

[johnb]

Don't know if it really affected the recruitment, but Alex Poythress was the player who spoke to Coach K on the phone (http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/6821223/mike-krzyzewski-contact-recruit-came-events-source-says) from a tournament site, thus leading to a possible NCAA rule violation.


In any case, this is terrible news. I remember vividly how well Alex Poythress played against Duke in the 2012 Champions Classic. Since then, his Kentucky career hasn't fully lived up to that promise, but he has been sticking with it and working hard--and paying attention to academics as well, since his is, according to his Kentucky bio, a two-time member of the SEC All-Academic team. This is a really bad stroke of luck.

Here's hoping for a swift, full recovery and a chance to get back on track for a professional career.

Some might express wonder that the SEC has an All-Academic team, but I'd just say that Alex is the sort of kid who reminds us that most of the high profile athletes who go to high profile universities do want to get an education and that it's a big deal for them to go to a marquee university like Kentucky. That would be one of the reasons that the big majority of the Kentucky kids are eligible to return for their sophomore years--they didn't just phone in their spring semesters when they could have just failed out and still applied to the NBA. Just as with the Carolina fiasco, my complaint is with the grown-ups; the players were by and large behaving like college students, and it's up to the faculty/coaches to create the infrastructure for success.

And so while I'll smile at just about any Kentucky loss into the indefinite future, I'm not smiling about this one. Otoh, he didn't die or be forced to transfer to Chapel Hill, so there's plenty of reason to think he'll come out of this in good shape (and one never knows how such an injury might positively enhance his overall happiness).

[TampaDuke]

This is terrible news for Poythress. My thoughts and prayers are with him as he begins the recovery process.

It does, however, bring up an interesting development. How will Cal modify his vaunted platoon system?

Similarly, on a more long-term perspective, does this have an effect on the future prospects of the "one and done" crowd sticking around for an extra year at Kentucky (or elsewhere)? As Featherston's front page article notes, Kentucky's championship prospects under Calipari are greater when a few of the vaunted freshman stick around for an extra year or so to mix in with the next class. While this is no doubt true of anyone, the Kentucky one and done model would truly be scary if he could convince a lottery prospect or two to stick around each year. That dream might be out the window now.

As for Poythress, it is truly terrible to hear of his injury. Hopefully, he is able to fully bounce back.

[Henderson]

What's to say? Bad luck for AP. Hate to see it. Speedy recovery. Could have been one of our guys or one of us just messing around with the kids.

[Bluedog]

Similarly, on a more long-term perspective, does this have an effect on the future prospects of the "one and done" crowd sticking around for an extra year at Kentucky (or elsewhere)? As Featherston's front page article notes, Kentucky's championship prospects under Calipari are greater when a few of the vaunted freshman stick around for an extra year or so to mix in with the next class. While this is no doubt true of anyone, the Kentucky one and done model would truly be scary if he could convince a lottery prospect or two to stick around each year. That dream might be out the window now.

As for Poythress, it is truly terrible to hear of his injury. Hopefully, he is able to fully bounce back.

He was able to do that this year...Cauley Stein was rated as the #19 prospect by Chad Ford (and would have been higher since people above him ended up withdrawing their names too). Dakari Johnson was seen as a likely first round pick. People also thought Marcus Lee and the Harrison twins were all possible first rounders. So, not high lottery talent, but he got 2 guys who were very likely first round picks and three guys who were possible first rounders to come back this year. That's a lot of talent returning even taking Poythress out of the picture.

Sorry to hear for Poythress.

[BlueDevilCorvette!]

Having had two ACL surgeries myself, I dread the thought of any athlete having to endure this type of injury. The worst part is getting past the mental barriers once you return to the court. I'm praying for that young man to have a successful surgery and rehab.

[moonpie23]

i'm always amazed that more of these don't happen.. :( good luck to him .......hope it's just a small setback for him in his quest for the dream...

[BrazyATX]

Sorry for the kid. Tough loss for Kentucky. Overall, as long as the mental or chemistry aspect isn't terribly affected, I think there won't be much change for the team as far as the box score goes. Their biggest issue right now is offensive production and that wasn't his strong suit. They may actually improve depending on what Cal does to fill the void.

Is this the end of the platoon? Can it be, please.

[DukieInKansas]

Terrible news. Wishing him a complete and quick recovery.

[hurleyfor3]

Wow. Huge development. Couldn't come at a worse time for a 40-0 seeking Wildcat team with (sleeping giant?) UNC on Saturday with nothing to lose.

This always happens right before teams play them, doesn't it.

[wilson]

Wow. Huge development. Couldn't come at a worse time for a 40-0 seeking Wildcat team with (sleeping giant?) UNC on Saturday with nothing to lose.


This always happens right before teams play them, doesn't it.I'm not sure it's going to matter. In my opinion, this Kentucky team has more question marks than a lot of people think, but defense is not one of those question marks (with or without Poythress). As much as scoring has been an issue for unc this year, I don't really see them taking down Kentucky this weekend. Their only hope would be to force the 'Cats into a poor offensive showing, but as we know, defense has never been a particular strength for Roy's teams. It might be relatively low-scoring and thus "close" in an absolute sense, but frankly, I don't think the heels will ever be a true threat to win tomorrow's game.

[Merlindevildog91]

Sorry to hear this. Best of luck to the young man in his recovery and in his future.

[nmduke2001]

I always root against Kentucky, but have found myself cheering for Alex. He seems like a good kid that works hard. Terrible news for him.

[CDu]

I'm not sure it's going to matter. In my opinion, this Kentucky team has more question marks than a lot of people think, but defense is not one of those question marks (with or without Poythress). As much as scoring has been an issue for unc this year, I don't really see them taking down Kentucky this weekend. Their only hope would be to force the 'Cats into a poor offensive showing, but as we know, defense has never been a particular strength for Roy's teams. It might be relatively low-scoring and thus "close" in an absolute sense, but frankly, I don't think the heels will ever be a true threat to win tomorrow's game.

Historically speaking, Roy Williams' UNC teams haven't been stout defensively. However, this year's group has actually been a pretty good defensive team. Pomeroy has them at #12 in defensive efficiency (ahead of us, for example). Though for all of the supposed concerns about Kentucky's ability to score, they are currently 4th in offensive efficiency.

I don't think UNC will win, mainly because their strength (size, rebounding, interior scoring) will actually be a weakness against Kentucky (who is much bigger and doesn't let you score inside). Kentucky's weakness is in their guards, but I don't think UNC's perimeter players do enough to punish that weakness. Unless Paige is out of his mind, I don't see this one being close.

[Henderson]

I'm not sure it's going to matter. In my opinion, this Kentucky team has more question marks than a lot of people think, but defense is not one of those question marks (with or without Poythress). As much as scoring has been an issue for unc this year, I don't really see them taking down Kentucky this weekend. Their only hope would be to force the 'Cats into a poor offensive showing, but as we know, defense has never been a particular strength for Roy's teams. It might be relatively low-scoring and thus "close" in an absolute sense, but frankly, I don't think the heels will ever be a true threat to win tomorrow's game.

I don't think AP's injury will have much effect on UK overall. He's a 5 ppg guy, averaging 20 minutes, and DNP in two games. Others will step in to fill those minutes and points.

Despite the canon that they are great defensively but less so offensively, the Cats are are shooting 54% from 2 and racking 16 assists per game, which is not that far behind this notoriously unselfish Duke team.

[moonpie23]

i was predicting the upset last week....but it was confirmed (to me) when i saw them playing Columbia.......

this uk team has issues......their defense (inside) is awesome, but their offense is clunky...

unc should win big tomorrow...

[flyingdutchdevil]

Historically speaking, Roy Williams' UNC teams haven't been stout defensively. However, this year's group has actually been a pretty good defensive team. Pomeroy has them at #12 in defensive efficiency (ahead of us, for example). Though for all of the supposed concerns about Kentucky's ability to score, they are currently 4th in offensive efficiency.

I don't think UNC will win, mainly because their strength (size, rebounding, interior scoring) will actually be a weakness against Kentucky (who is much bigger and doesn't let you score inside). Kentucky's weakness is in their guards, but I don't think UNC's perimeter players do enough to punish that weakness. Unless Paige is out of his mind, I don't see this one being close.

Roy's teams being weak defensively is a myth in the last 5 years, just like Duke being more defensive-minded is a myth in the last 5 years. Here are KenPom's defensive ratings for Duke and UNC in the last five years:

UNC / Duke
2015: 12 / 17
2014: 21 / 116
2013: 55 / 31
2012: 14 / 81
2011: 4 / 21
Average: 21.2 / 53.2

So, according to KenPom, UNC has actually had a way better average defense than Duke.

[TampaDuke]

He was able to do that this year...Cauley Stein was rated as the #19 prospect by Chad Ford (and would have been higher since people above him ended up withdrawing their names too). Dakari Johnson was seen as a likely first round pick. People also thought Marcus Lee and the Harrison twins were all possible first rounders. So, not high lottery talent, but he got 2 guys who were very likely first round picks and three guys who were possible first rounders to come back this year. That's a lot of talent returning even taking Poythress out of the picture.

No doubt. I'm sure that's one of the biggest reasons they're so highly touted this year. I shudder to think what Kentucky would be like if Calipari was somehow able to refine his model to regularly convince one or two of the one and dones to stay each year. A team of highly touted freshman, while likely to be in the championship mix each year, doesn't concern me that much. A team of highly touted freshman plus a few lottery-level sophomores/juniors, like this year's Kentucky team, is another story altogether. Poythress's injury, while devastating and unfortunate to him personally, likely also kills the prospect of a regular recurrence of these types of teams with a good mix of freshmen and veterans.

[MChambers]

Having had two ACL surgeries myself, I dread the thought of any athlete having to endure this type of injury. The worst part is getting past the mental barriers once you return to the court. I'm praying for that young man to have a successful surgery and rehab.
Me too. Hope Poythress recovers well, but it's a tough injury in any sport. Seems like a fine young man and I'll be rooting for him.

Also, can we put discussions of how this affects Kentucky's team or its game against UNC in another thread?

[hurleyfor3]

Also, can we put discussions of how this affects Kentucky's team or its game against UNC in another thread?

Already a thing. (http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?34579-Check-out-how-not-obsessed-we-are-with-Kentucky)

[Henderson]

i was predicting the upset last week....but it was confirmed (to me) when i saw them playing Columbia.......

this uk team has issues......their defense (inside) is awesome, but their offense is clunky...

unc should win big tomorrow...

Lightning might strike, but I doubt it. But this game is kind of win-win from my point of view. If Kentucky loses, we may pull the No. 1 ranking. And if they win, the cheaters lose. And that's a good thing.

The flip side is that regardless of the reult, either Roy or Cal will get national tv props, and that makes me sick to think about.

What was that about a meteor? Are they available online?

[CDu]

Having had two ACL surgeries myself, I dread the thought of any athlete having to endure this type of injury. The worst part is getting past the mental barriers once you return to the court. I'm praying for that young man to have a successful surgery and rehab.

Having endured my first ACL tear back in March, I agree. I'm just now back to running like normal and I'm still a good ways from being fully confident in cutting/planting/twisting/etc. I definitely am nervous about when I get the okay to play again, because I REALLY don't want to join you in the two ACL tear club.

I don't wish an ACL tear on anyone. Sorry to hear that Poythress got hurt. Hopefully he has a full recovery and can play unimpeded next year.

[Wheat/"/"/"]

Roy's teams being weak defensively is a myth in the last 5 years, just like Duke being more defensive-minded is a myth in the last 5 years. Here are KenPom's defensive ratings for Duke and UNC in the last five years:

UNC / Duke
2015: 12 / 17
2014: 21 / 116
2013: 55 / 31
2012: 14 / 81
2011: 4 / 21
Average: 21.2 / 53.2

So, according to KenPom, UNC has actually had a way better average defense than Duke.

Thanks for pointing out how inaccurate it is to say Roy's teams don't play good defense. Saved me the effort.

Sorry to see the injury. Hope it's not a bad one. I blew mine out at 50 and have a cadaver Acl replacement, no way I'll ever be close to putting any real pressure on it and I'm still pretty athletic...with no confidence in it.

He's young, and he can hopefully get it repaired, but it's that confidence issue he will really have to overcome.

[The Gordog]

Some might express wonder that the SEC has an All-Academic team, but I'd just say that Alex is the sort of kid who reminds us that most of the high profile athletes who go to high profile universities do want to get an education and that it's a big deal for them to go to a marquee university like Kentucky. That would be one of the reasons that the big majority of the Kentucky kids are eligible to return for their sophomore years--they didn't just phone in their spring semesters when they could have just failed out and still applied to the NBA. Just as with the Carolina fiasco, my complaint is with the grown-ups; the players were by and large behaving like college students, and it's up to the faculty/coaches to create the infrastructure for success.

And so while I'll smile at just about any Kentucky loss into the indefinite future, I'm not smiling about this one. Otoh, he didn't die or be forced to transfer to Chapel Hill, so there's plenty of reason to think he'll come out of this in good shape (and one never knows how such an injury might positively enhance his overall happiness).

Well, he's got that going for him allright... LOL. Good thing it's quiet in the office today and boss is on a day off!

[Bluegrassdevil1]

I remember hearing that Alex's first choice was Duke, but we were waiting on Shabazz Mohammed and never showed sufficient interest. Same thing happened with Perry Ellis at Kansas.

Ultimately, that Scholly went to Amile Jefferson, so I'm cool with it.

Get well soon AP

The very thought of pursing the Shabazz Mohammed crazy train over Alex Poythress makes me physically ill. To project Poythress' skills on the '13 elite eight squad, last season's defensive woes, and the current group... HUGE SIGH.

Poythress is a great kid, and all of the negativity of the Calipari regime is certainly off-set with kids like that on their squad; however, as deep and talented as the current UK squad is, Poythress is a tough asset to replace. The kid's experience, abilities, and leadership, certainly changes the cats, leaving their much discussed platoon system significantly altered. I suspect they will still have more than enough to challenge for the national championship (likely remaining the favorite), but for selfish reasons alone regarding a future Duke-UK contest, the devils not having to match Jefferson/Winslow with Poythress thrills me to no end.

[sagegrouse]

i was predicting the upset last week....but it was confirmed (to me) when i saw them playing Columbia.......

this uk team has issues......their defense (inside) is awesome, but their offense is clunky...

unc should win big tomorrow...

After the showing against Columbia, do ye think thar are askeered of the baby blue color?

[Ichabod Drain]

I don't think AP's injury will have much effect on UK overall. He's a 5 ppg guy, averaging 20 minutes, and DNP in two games. Others will step in to fill those minutes and points.

Despite the canon that they are great defensively but less so offensively, the Cats are are shooting 54% from 2 and racking 16 assists per game, which is not that far behind this notoriously unselfish Duke team.

Yes he only averaged 20 mpg but that's about what they all average. Their player with the most minutes is WCS at 24 mpg. His two DNP's were due to illness. Poythress was also arguably their best defender and could guard the 1-4 and was one of the two most experienced players.

[roywhite]

I don't think AP's injury will have much effect on UK overall. He's a 5 ppg guy, averaging 20 minutes, and DNP in two games. Others will step in to fill those minutes and points.

Despite the canon that they are great defensively but less so offensively, the Cats are are shooting 54% from 2 and racking 16 assists per game, which is not that far behind this notoriously unselfish Duke team.


Yes he only averaged 20 mpg but that's about what they all average. Their player with the most minutes is WCS at 24 mpg. His two DNP's were due to illness. Poythress was also arguably their best defender and could guard the 1-4 and was one of the two most experienced players.

I'm surprised to see UK is shooting that well from 2-pt; their overall offensive stats are not impressive -- 75.4 pts/game (64th in country) and 46.6% FG% (81st in country) and consider they have a major size advantage vs every opponent.

By contrast -- Duke 89.1 pts/game (3rd in country) and 53.9% FG% (2nd in country)

[uh_no]

Roy's teams being weak defensively is a myth in the last 5 years, just like Duke being more defensive-minded is a myth in the last 5 years. Here are KenPom's defensive ratings for Duke and UNC in the last five years:

UNC / Duke
2015: 12 / 17
2014: 21 / 116
2013: 55 / 31
2012: 14 / 81
2011: 4 / 21
Average: 21.2 / 53.2

So, according to KenPom, UNC has actually had a way better average defense than Duke.

this was really interesting, but it also conveniently excludes 2010 where duke was far and away better....8 vs 39

further, using mean of ranking is misleading....as the teams further away from the top are much more closely clustered...meaning a small change in actual defensive performance could mean a huge change in ranking.....this means that the 116 and the 81 dominate duke's huge numbers.....One thing we can say is that UNC has been easily more consistent.

I've solved this problem by both including 2010 and using the rating rather than the ranking:
duke: 94.1
UNC: 92.6

or 1.5 points per 100 possessions.


I agree with your thesis that UNC is at least as defensively minded as duke....but it's not the bloodbath that your numbers make it out to be.

(note: i thought about weighting the 6 year average by tempo, but that would unfairly bias the result towards teams that played quickly....so I weighted them all equally....so the result is not EXACTLY the number of points given up per 100 possessions over the past 6 years....but I think a better representation of the overall defensive focus of the two teams)

[Henderson]

this was really interesting, but it also conveniently excludes 2010 where duke was far and away better....8 vs 39

further, using mean of ranking is misleading....as the teams further away from the top are much more closely clustered...meaning a small change in actual defensive performance could mean a huge change in ranking.....this means that the 116 and the 81 dominate duke's huge numbers.....One thing we can say is that UNC has been easily more consistent.

I've solved this problem by both including 2010 and using the rating rather than the ranking:
duke: 94.1
UNC: 92.6

or 1.5 points per 100 possessions.


I agree with your thesis that UNC is at least as defensively minded as duke....but it's not the bloodbath that your numbers make it out to be.

(note: i thought about weighting the 6 year average by tempo, but that would unfairly bias the result towards teams that played quickly....so I weighted them all equally....so the result is not EXACTLY the number of points given up per 100 possessions over the past 6 years....but I think a better representation of the overall defensive focus of the two teams)

I'm admittedly not much a quant, so forgive my ignorance. But do these data have any usefulness except for those that represent head to head competition?

[uh_no]

I'm admittedly not much a quant, so forgive my ignorance. But do these data have any usefulness except for those that represent head to head competition?

it's, in fact, much more useful than head to head competition as it incorporates data from every game played that year.....so for instance, for duke, it is effectively how many points duke's opponents scored against duke relative to how many they SHOULD have scored based on their performance against their opponents (defined recursively....)

so in essence, if you took the average duke team over the past 6 years, and the average UNC team over the past 6 years, and they each played the same average opponent, UNC would give up 1.5 fewer points every 100 possessions....or about 1 point for an average tempo game.


so what it comes out to, is that UNC saved themselves about a point per game over the past 6 years by playing better defense than duke....which might be about a victory or 2 per year, i'd imagine.....though this was probably mitigated by DUKe's superior offense.

also: for an example of how big/small 1.5 points per 100 actually is:
difference between kenpom D rankings:

1-11: 5.9 p/100p
11-21: 1.5
21-31: 1.1
31-41: 1.2

[Henderson]

it's, in fact, much more useful than head to head competition as it incorporates data from every game played that year.....so for instance, for duke, it is effectively how many points duke's opponents scored against duke relative to how many they SHOULD have scored based on their performance against their opponents (defined recursively....)

so in essence, if you took the average duke team over the past 6 years, and the average UNC team over the past 6 years, and they each played the same average opponent, UNC would give up 1.5 fewer points every 100 possessions....or about 1 point for an average tempo game.


so what it comes out to, is that UNC saved themselves about a point per game over the past 6 years by playing better defense than duke....which might be about a victory or 2 per year, i'd imagine.....though this was probably mitigated by DUKe's superior offense.

also: for an example of how big/small 1.5 points per 100 actually is:
difference between kenpom D rankings:

1-11: 5.9 p/100p
11-21: 1.5
21-31: 1.1
31-41: 1.2

I think I'm good with my existing point of view, defined recursively of course. But thanks.

[Edouble]

this was really interesting, but it also conveniently excludes 2010 where duke was far and away better....8 vs 39

further, using mean of ranking is misleading....as the teams further away from the top are much more closely clustered...meaning a small change in actual defensive performance could mean a huge change in ranking.....this means that the 116 and the 81 dominate duke's huge numbers.....One thing we can say is that UNC has been easily more consistent.

I've solved this problem by both including 2010 and using the rating rather than the ranking:
duke: 94.1
UNC: 92.6

or 1.5 points per 100 possessions.


I agree with your thesis that UNC is at least as defensively minded as duke....but it's not the bloodbath that your numbers make it out to be.

(note: i thought about weighting the 6 year average by tempo, but that would unfairly bias the result towards teams that played quickly....so I weighted them all equally....so the result is not EXACTLY the number of points given up per 100 possessions over the past 6 years....but I think a better representation of the overall defensive focus of the two teams)

He chose to go back five years, which is how Coach K measures program success, and is a nice round number.

It seems like if you bump it a year to include our championship season, you should really bump it two years to 2009 to include their championship season as well.

[CDu]

He chose to go back five years, which is how Coach K measures program success, and is a nice round number.

It seems like if you bump it a year to include our championship season, you should really bump it two years to 2009 to include their championship season as well.

Adding 2009 makes no meaningful difference, as both teams' adjusted defensive efficiency were roughly the same in 2009 as the average over the last several years.

UNC was a juggernaut offensively in 2009. Defensively they were just solid but not great.

[devildeac]

He chose to go back five years, which is how Coach K measures program success, and is a nice round number.

It seems like if you bump it a year to include our championship season, you should really bump it two years to 2009 to include their championship(*) season as well.


Clarified it for you;).

[Wheat/"/"/"]

It would be a whole lot easier if some could finally find a way past clouded rivalry glasses and reach the logical conclusion that Ol' Roy actually can coach quality defense...and has during his career.

[bob blue devil]

It would be a whole lot easier if some could finally find a way past clouded rivalry glasses and reach the logical conclusion that Ol' Roy actually can coach quality defense...and has during his career.

yeah, this is more of a duke story than a unc story. we're all used to thinking about K as a defensive wizard, and that was obvious fact through the end of the '08 season. pomeroy has data going back to the '02 season and from the '02-'08 seasons (7 years) our WORST defensive year was 06 when we were ranked 18th defensively with an efficiency of 92.6. since then (5 seasons) only our championship season had defensive numbers (rank or efficiency) better than our prior worst and includes the embarrassing 81st rank in 2012 and 116th rank in 2014. i don't read too much into this given the small sample size (we're talking about 1-2 recruiting classes), but the argument could be made that coach k has slipped to ol' roy level of defensive coaching ability.

<edit: i meant distinct rosters, not recruiting classes>

[Duvall]

It would be a whole lot easier if some could finally find a way past clouded rivalry glasses and reach the logical conclusion that Ol' Roy actually can coach quality defense...and has during his career.

Less a case of rivalry bias than tempo bias, I think.

[OldPhiKap]

It would be a whole lot easier if some could finally find a way past clouded rivalry glasses and reach the logical conclusion that Ol' Roy actually can coach quality defense...and has during his career.

Well, he certainly has defended his ill-gotten banner so far, so there's that.

But I thought this thread was about a talented kid who got hurt.

Game today should be good, curious to see how KY adapts. UNC could win this one, would not be surprised.

[jv001]

Well, he certainly has defended his ill-gotten banner so far, so there's that.

But I thought this thread was about a talented kid who got hurt.

I was reading the recent posts and started wondering what was the title of this thread. Couldn't spork you but I can give you a "GoDuke"!

[BD80]

Well, he certainly has defended his ill-gotten banner so far, so there's that.But I thought this thread was about a talented kid who got hurt.

Game today should be good, curious to see how KY adapts. UNC could win this one, would not be surprised.

Bazinga!

I have a theory, which I propose naming GoodWheats Law, that every thread on this board will eventually wind up with a mention of the tarheels.

I will be surprised if unc wins today. There is about the same probability of 2 meteors falling through unc's goal as 2 perimeter shots going through.

[77devil]

Well, he certainly has defended his ill-gotten banner so far, so there's that.

But I thought this thread was about a talented kid who got hurt.

Game today should be good, curious to see how KY adapts. UNC could win this one, would not be surprised.

Even without Poythress, I think Kentucky wins this one decisively going away. While Kentucky has been unimpressive against lesser opponents, Calipari will have his team ready and motivated and Rupp will be very loud. Spread is 11.5.