Phase II 2014-15 MBB (Elon through Wofford) - Crowdsource Request

[Troublemaker]

Truth be told, this Phase was supposed to run from Wisconsin through Wofford. But, I figured once the Wisconsin game was played (great win by our boys!), it now becomes Finals Time at Duke and so our next game isn't going to be played until December 15 against Elon. There's a lot of time between now and then, so this is an opportunity for members of this board to crowd-source and piece-meal cobble this Phase II together.


The focus of Phase II: Coming off this huge, emotional win at Wisconsin, where does this team go from here? In what areas can this team reasonably improve from where it stands right now?


It IS my Phase Post as handed down to me by the cloak and dagger Order of the Phase Posters. So I hope to direct and lead this effort as effectively as Tyus and Quinn have directed and lead the team so far this season.

Let's begin.

Phase II this season encompasses four non-conference games that will take us to the New Year and conclude before ACC play begins. These four non-conference games include one marquee matchup against Connecticut and three games against mid/low majors (Elon, Toledo, Wofford). Similar to how tommy did it in Phase I, I'll write a quick preview for these four opponents in one of my posts in this thread. (Unless someone from the crowd wants to do some of these teams - Chillin' maybe? uh_no for UConn?)


On to some Phase Topics:

(1) Team Health


Ah, the classic Phase Topic to start any Phase. Let's hope for continued good health, of course.

This might be an appropriate spot for the following observation. This Duke team is very deep, but interestingly, I don't think there's much duplication of talent/skillset on it. You wouldn't say we have "two of everything" like you might say with Kentucky. Replace anyone in the starting lineup, for example, and you make Duke a very different team. We can't duplicate Jahlil's elite scoring around the basket, Justise's all-around game and versatility as a big wing, Tyus' elite passing and court vision and fastbreak push and clutch shotmaking down the stretch of competitive games, Quinn's explosive shooting / perimeter scoring and emotional senior leadership, and Amile's elite rebounding and defensive communication. We are very deep but we also have unique players playing unique roles.


(2) Can Jahlil draw more fouls and shoot more free throws? Can Duke, in general, draw more fouls and shoot more free throws?

As analytics have become more popular in basketball (and sports in general), I think many of us are now aware of the Four Factors of Basketball (http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/factors.html), namely Shooting Percentage, Turnover Rate, Rebounding Rate, and Free Throw Attempt Rate. And since you can consider any of these Factors from both an offensive and defensive perspective, what we're really talking about are 8 total Factors.

What can this young team reasonably improve upon over the course of the season? Are any of the 8 Factors showing up as a relative weakness for this team right now? The answer is yes: on offense, we haven't shot enough free throws so far this season, ranking 130th in the country in FT Rate. In particular, Jahlil has only shot 25 free throws in 8 games, which is about 3.1 FTA/game. That's a relatively anemic total for someone that many thought would "live at the line" this season.

Duke's offense right now is terrific at the other 3 Factors, ranking 3rd in the country in Effective FG% (overall shooting, essentially), 4th in Turnover Rate, and 30th in Offensive Rebounding Rate. If Duke can draw more fouls and go to the line more often, that will complete the offense and make it the best in the country. I realize Duke already ranks #1 on offense in KenPom, but that ranking has a margin of error and can also fluctuate over the course of the season as more games get played and teams decline/improve; we might, in reality, be "only" a top 5 offense, for example. If, however, Duke improves its FT Rate, I can't imagine another offense in the country being better than Duke's. We'd be dominant across all Four Factors and be the undeniable #1.

The great thing about this situation is that it's very easy to imagine Duke, and Jahlil in particular, getting better at drawing fouls as the season progresses. Jahlil's unique combination of size, quickness, and skill should eventually result in more FTAs for him as he continues to get coached up on and become more familiar with NCAA officiating. Meanwhile, Justise and Tyus are already getting to the line at good rates, but I think they also will slightly improve in this regard as they get more games with NCAA officials under their belts. Duke has a good chance at becoming a complete, dominant, scary offense before it's all said and done.

More to come in this Phase II. Share with me and everyone else your ideas for Phase Topics. Thanks!

[DukieInBrasil]

Truth be told, this Phase was supposed to run from Wisconsin through Wofford. But, I figured once the Wisconsin game was played (great win by our boys!), it now becomes Finals Time at Duke and so our next game isn't going to be played until December 15 against Elon. There's a lot of time between now and then, so this is an opportunity for members of this board to crowd-source and piece-meal cobble this Phase II together.


The focus of Phase II: Coming off this huge, emotional win at Wisconsin, where does this team go from here? In what areas can this team reasonably improve from where it stands right now?


It IS my Phase Post as handed down to me by the cloak and dagger Order of the Phase Posters. So I hope to direct and lead this effort as effectively as Tyus and Quinn have directed and lead the team so far this season.

Let's begin.

Phase II this season encompasses four non-conference games that will take us to the New Year and conclude before ACC play begins. These four non-conference games include one marquee matchup against Connecticut and three games against mid/low majors (Elon, Toledo, Wofford). Similar to how tommy did it in Phase I, I'll write a quick preview for these four opponents in one of my posts in this thread. (Unless someone from the crowd wants to do some of these teams - Chillin' maybe? uh_no for UConn?)


On to some Phase Topics:

(1) Team Health


Ah, the classic Phase Topic to start any Phase. Let's hope for continued good health, of course.

This might be an appropriate spot for the following observation. This Duke team is very deep, but interestingly, I don't think there's much duplication of talent/skillset on it. You wouldn't say we have "two of everything" like you might say with Kentucky. Replace anyone in the starting lineup, for example, and you make Duke a very different team. We can't duplicate Jahlil's elite scoring around the basket, Justise's all-around game and versatility as a big wing, Tyus' elite passing and court vision and fastbreak push and clutch shotmaking down the stretch of competitive games, Quinn's explosive shooting / perimeter scoring and emotional senior leadership, and Amile's elite rebounding and defensive communication. We are very deep but we also have unique players playing unique roles.


(2) Can Jahlil draw more fouls and shoot more free throws? Can Duke, in general, draw more fouls and shoot more free throws?

As analytics have become more popular in basketball (and sports in general), I think many of us are now aware of the Four Factors of Basketball (http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/factors.html), namely Shooting Percentage, Turnover Rate, Rebounding Rate, and Free Throw Attempt Rate. And since you can consider any of these Factors from both an offensive and defensive perspective, what we're really talking about are 8 total Factors.

What can this young team reasonably improve upon over the course of the season? Are any of the 8 Factors showing up as a relative weakness for this team right now? The answer is yes: on offense, we haven't shot enough free throws so far this season, ranking 130th in the country in FT Rate. In particular, Jahlil has only shot 25 free throws in 8 games, which is about 3.1 FTA/game. That's a relatively anemic total for someone that many thought would "live at the line" this season.

Duke's offense right now is terrific at the other 3 Factors, ranking 3rd in the country in Effective FG% (overall shooting, essentially), 4th in Turnover Rate, and 30th in Offensive Rebounding Rate. If Duke can draw more fouls and go to the line more often, that will complete the offense and make it the best in the country. I realize Duke already ranks #1 on offense in KenPom, but that ranking has a margin of error and can also fluctuate over the course of the season as more games get played and teams decline/improve; we might, in reality, be "only" a top 5 offense, for example. If, however, Duke improves its FT Rate, I can't imagine another offense in the country being better than Duke's. We'd be dominant across all Four Factors and be the undeniable #1.

The great thing about this situation is that it's very easy to imagine Duke, and Jahlil in particular, getting better at drawing fouls as the season progresses. Jahlil's unique combination of size, quickness, and skill should eventually result in more FTAs for him as he continues to get coached up on and become more familiar with NCAA officiating. Meanwhile, Justise and Tyus are already getting to the line at good rates, but I think they also will slightly improve in this regard as they get more games with NCAA officials under their belts. Duke has a good chance at becoming a complete, dominant, scary offense before it's all said and done.

More to come in this Phase II. Share with me and everyone else your ideas for Phase Topics. Thanks!

WRT FT shooting, i'm not all that worried about our relatively low FT rate so far for a few reasons. 1) that it can be partly attributed to making the extra pass and getting clean, open looks at the basket. It's hard to draw a foul on an uncontested jumper or layup! 2) i'd rather have uncontested jumpers and layups than difficult shots in/thru defenders. 3) i'd also rather have Jahlil making 6-8 FG + 1-2 FTs thru the combination of quality looks and good shot selection than, say, Jahlil going 5-10 FG +5-9 FTs. 4) Jahlil is also a good passer, and tho his assist #s are not staggering, passing out of a double team instead of attempting a shot withe possibility of drawing a foul is preferable, IMO. 5) Our guards are doing a damn fine job of making good decisions on drives by either taking shots before the defensive help gets there to contest the shot (and potentially fouling) or by passing and therefore not getting fouled.
In my mind, the one drawback to not drawing fouls is that it limits the amount of pressure we're putting on their D by not really ever getting the opponent in foul trouble, which can put starters or important subs on the bench and can alter the preferred style in which the opponent plays defense. Those are legit benefits of drawing fouls, and we would probably benefit from those outcomes, but i wouldn't want to change the way our offense is playing at the moment (which as you mentioned is #1 in the country) just to gain those benefits as it would probably reduce the benefits we are gaining from the way we are playing now.

As for the other aspects of a Phase post, i'm not really sure what ways i am looking for this team to improve in. I suppose i'll posit this: i am looking for our subs to get some good game action and that i am hopeful that our "second unit" gets some quality on court minutes together. This may very well come in handy later in the season when we need any one of MP3, Semi, Grayson to provide quality minutes for any of the other 7 more deeply entrenched players. I realize that MP3 is doing well so far and that Jah is playing so well that MP3 is not needed for any more than he has been playing so far but! in the 2nd half last night when MP3 came in for Jah, he didn't do anything that merited him staying on the floor, and there may be games in the future when both Jah and Amile have foul trouble and we'll need MP3 to do more than bruise people and expend energy. MP3 played some quality 1st half minutes vs. Whiskey, but in this Phase, i would like to see MP3 show some quality minutes in the 2nd half too.
Aside from those minor points, i'm not sure there's much we can learn about this team that we haven't seen already: we took apart the #2 team in the nation on their home court!!!

[Troublemaker]

Haha, that initial post I made for this Phase II thread was weird. It was some combination of:
(a) too many glasses of wine celebrating Duke's big win last night, and
(b) I am stalling because writing these Phase posts take waaay longer than I anticipated. (I'm a newb, as the kids would say).

I AM legitimately interested in hearing what people think should go into Phase II, though. What areas can Duke improve?

My next post will delve into how I think Duke's defense can improve. But first:

(3) Will Duke's three-point shooting hold up?

In Topic 2 (Can Duke get to the free throw line more often?), I made the point that Duke's offense would become absolutely dominant if we could just draw more fouls. (Some would say it's absolutely dominant already. Noted.) But the assumption I make there is that all other aspects of Duke's offense would remain at high levels, that there would be no slippage elsewhere while we improved in this one area of FT Rate.

Is that assumption sound? I think it is.

Duke's low turnover rate isn't going to change. We start two PGs. Winslow has a great handle for a wing. Amile and Jahlil are ball-friendly (unlike Sheed).

Duke's offensive rebounding will continue to be great as well. Amile (6th nationally in O-board rate) and Marshall (16th) are proven offensive rebounders from last season. Jahlil (39th) has the size and length and talent to continue grabbing o-boards at a high rate. Justise will get his share. We just have a strong offensive rebounding team, and that will continue to be the case.

So, imo, the only conceivable place where we could slip is in shooting, specifically 3-pt shooting. 2-pt shooting will continue to rank high (currently 3rd nationally) because Duke has a dominant inside scorer, a point guard that gets us easy baskets in transition and in halfcourt, great team ball movement, and a plethora of drivers who can get to the rim and finish.

So what of 3-pt shooting? Quinn is a great shooter and won't slip much, if at all, from his current 44% from three. Matt will come down from his current 56% but he's a good shooter. Since Matt shot the ball well in high school, it's more reasonable to consider his freshman season struggles to be the fluke rather than his good shooting this season. Sheed is a good shooter who can maintain or raise his currently 37%. Marshall will continue to be a 100% shooter from beyond the arc.

It all just boils down to this: Can Justise (38%) and Tyus (36%) continue to hold their own shooting the ball? Because they are starters alongside Quinn, these two freshmen will probably end up ranking 2nd and 3rd on our team in 3-pt field goal attempts behind Quinn (which is currently the case). We need Justise and Tyus to keep hitting. It's just that simple, and so I will continue to keep track of how well they're shooting in Phase II and ultimately throughout the season.

Re: Justise. If he maintains his current level of shooting, I think a lot of credit has to go to Duke's coaching staff (as well as Justise's own hard work). I believe during the summer, Duke was able to successfully shot doctor his stroke to become more compact and repeatable. Compare how it looks now to how it looked earlier in the summer before he stepped on Duke's campus (http://youtu.be/INnQex5ZfQQ?t=8m15s).

[Kedsy]

It all just boils down to this: Can Justise (38%) and Tyus (36%) continue to hold their own shooting the ball? Because they are starters alongside Quinn, these two freshmen will probably end up ranking 2nd and 3rd on our team in 3-pt field goal attempts behind Quinn (which is currently the case). We need Justise and Tyus to keep hitting. It's just that simple, and so I will continue to keep track of how well they're shooting in Phase II and ultimately throughout the season.

Kudos, Troublemaker. An interesting approach to a Phase post.

To answer the above-quoted question, my guess is both Justise's and Tyus's three-point percentages drop a little but not too much. Maybe to 34% or so. Neither of them has great form but neither of them has terrible form, either, and hopefully they'll both only take clean looks, which should lead to decent percentages.

That said, I think 34% or so from them will be good enough in most games, though if Quinn has an off-game it could lead to a handful of 4-19 long-distance performances like the team had against Army.

[Saratoga2]

The team is to some extent quite dependent on the health of several players, any one of which would constitute a big negative for team play. I would argue that Jahlil's health is the most critical to the team because we have no one that could replace his threat in the paint. Marshall is an excellent fill in but doesn't represent the offensive threar. Of the others, we would miss them but at least we have players that would do a respectible job of replacement. At PG and 2 guard we have Tyus, Quinn, Rasheed and Matt with Grason being developed. At the 3 we have Justise and Matt , at he 4 we have Amile and Semi. My thinking is that it remains important to develop Semi and Grayson so they could do a respectable fill in job should injury(s) occur during the season.

The offensive punch of this team is multi-faceted and doesn't rely on three point shooting or drawing fouls. We have a great inside player. If teams try to take that away, we can drive to the basket and hit the shot or get fouled. If they zone up we can hit the long twos and threes. Our players seem to get this and play off of one another and look for the soft spots on defense. I am confident that this team will continue to improve as they realize they have a flexible offense and work together unselfishly. The defensive is so good that we should have the advantage in the remaining games. I would suppose Virginia will be another significant test along the way.

[flyingdutchdevil]

My thinking is that it remains important to develop Semi and Grayson so they could do a respectable fill in job should injury(s) occur during the season.

Don't want to spoil your party, but, barring injury, it looks like the rotation is set at 8, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a few games (or many games) where MP3 plays less than 8 minutes.

Grayson and Semi are important for the future of Duke basketball, but a) Grayson has 4 players in front of him who are either more talented or more poised and b) the "Winslow Experiment" at the 4 is clearly working and hence minimizing Semi's value.

[luvdahops]

Would add the following:

-Improved defensive rebounding. IMHO, this is Jahlil's biggest area for improvement the balance of the year. His rpg numbers have arguably been a little disappointing thus far, particularly on the defensive end. Amile is rebounding well overall, but also much better on the offensive end, relatively speaking. Wisconsin kept themselves in the game last night by pounding the offensive boards. I hope this doesn't become a recurring theme when we play bigger teams.

-Can Rasheed evolve into the "6th starter" that many had him penciled in for? He has played pretty well thus far in a fairly limited role (especially last night), but I believe he is capable of more (perhaps around 10 ppg and 3 apg in ~25 mpg).

[flyingdutchdevil]

Would add the following:

-Improved defensive rebounding. IMHO, this is Jahlil's biggest area for improvement the balance of the year. His rpg numbers have arguably been a little disappointing thus far, particularly on the defensive end. Amile is rebounding well overall, but also much better on the offensive end, relatively speaking. Wisconsin kept themselves in the game last night by pounding the offensive boards. I hope this doesn't become a recurring theme when we play bigger teams.

-Can Rasheed evolve into the "6th starter" that many had him penciled in for? He has played pretty well thus far in a fairly limited role (especially last night), but I believe he is capable of more (perhaps around 10 ppg and 3 apg in ~25 mpg).

Did you see Rasheed's rebounds last night? Those were Man Rebounds. He went crazy after the ball. It was a beautiful thing to see.

I agree that our defensive rebounding isn't perfect, but it gives us an area to improve on for the next few months. I mean, we still need to continue beating teams by double-digits, right?

[luvdahops]

Did you see Rasheed's rebounds last night? Those were Man Rebounds. He went crazy after the ball. It was a beautiful thing to see.

I agree that our defensive rebounding isn't perfect, but it gives us an area to improve on for the next few months. I mean, we still need to continue beating teams by double-digits, right?

I loved just about everything I saw from Rasheed last night. He played with the right combination of poise, control and aggression.

And yes, we do still need to keep beating teams by double digits :). Just thought we could have won going away last night if we had done a better on the defensive glass.

[Kedsy]

-Improved defensive rebounding. IMHO, this is Jahlil's biggest area for improvement the balance of the year.

I agree with this, though it's not necessarily Jahlil's rpg numbers that bother me as much as his subpar defensive rebounding percentage of 15.6%.

By the way, in the last phase post, some of us were discussing Amile's potential rpg numbers, and I'd like to point out that currently Amile is averaging 8.9 rpg in only 22.9 mpg. I believe his minutes will go up a little as the season wears on and his rebounding numbers will continue at the current level at least.

[jv001]

I just want to comment about Duke's 3 point shooting. I expect Quinn's percentage of .440% to come down a little but not too much. He's a career .371% shooter from long range. Rasheed is a career .387% shooter from 3, so he likely will stay round that figure. As for Tyus I hope he can stay around .360%. Quinn as a freshman shot .250% three pointers but I don't think Tyus will drop that much even if he is a freshman. I'm hoping we're seeing the real Matt Jones, not the freshman. As some have said in other posts, he came to Duke with a reputation of a good shooter. So, I think anything near .370-.400 will be good for Matt. I have no idea how Justise will shoot the 3 ball. If he can maintain .380%, that will be great as a freshman.

I agree that Jah can improve on his rebounding stats. He's a very athletic big man and should be able to box out better. I look for improvement in that area as the season goes on. Of course, many of the stats will change when we get into conference play, but that will be another Phase. GoDuke!

[luvdahops]

I agree with this, though it's not necessarily Jahlil's rpg numbers that bother me as much as his subpar defensive rebounding percentage of 15.6%.

By the way, in the last phase post, some of us were discussing Amile's potential rpg numbers, and I'd like to point out that currently Amile is averaging 8.9 rpg in only 22.9 mpg. I believe his minutes will go up a little as the season wears on and his rebounding numbers will continue at the current level at least.

I agree that the subpar defensive rebounding percentage is the primary culprit. But IMHO, Jahlil should be capable of more than 7.6 rpg overall. Grabbing a higher share of defensive boards is the best way to address that though.

Credit to you on the Amile projection, though I believe he is currently at 8.3 rpg (and 8.9 ppg). To be honest, my skepticism was mostly rooted in the expectation that Big Jah would be a more dominant rebounder. Which may still turn out the be the case over a full season, and would likely have at least a marginally negative impact on Amile's rpg. To put it another way, I still expect Okafor to be our leading rebounder over the course of the full year.

[Kedsy]

I agree that the subpar defensive rebounding percentage is the primary culprit. But IMHO, Jahlil should be capable of more than 7.6 rpg overall. Grabbing a higher share of defensive boards is the best way to address that though.

Credit to you on the Amile projection, though I believe he is currently at 8.3 rpg (and 8.9 ppg). To be honest, my skepticism was mostly rooted in the expectation that Big Jah would be a more dominant rebounder. Which may still turn out the be the case over a full season, and would likely have at least a marginally negative impact on Amile's rpg. To put it another way, I still expect Okafor to be our leading rebounder over the course of the full year.

Yeah, I guess the 8.9 rpg number was before the Wisconsin game. Sorry about that. Still, I expect if/when Amile's minutes go up, so will his rpg numbers.

We'll have to see whether Jahlil becomes our leading rebounder or not. Amile has a very strong rebounding track record. I personally expect him to lead the team, though of course that's just a guess like anything else.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Yeah, I guess the 8.9 rpg number was before the Wisconsin game. Sorry about that. Still, I expect if/when Amile's minutes go up, so will his rpg numbers.

We'll have to see whether Jahlil becomes our leading rebounder or not. Amile has a very strong rebounding track record. I personally expect him to lead the team, though of course that's just a guess like anything else.

Can I ask why? In the three games where Semi barely played or did not play at all, Amile averaged 23.3 minutes, or 0.4 minutes above his average. I'm not disagreeing with you that the rebounding numbers will go up if given more minutes, but I'm not sure that Amile's minutes will increase that substantially. Coach K loves that spread 4, and Winslow will garner minutes at that position.

I can see Amile averaging 25 min a game, but I do see Winslow spending substantial time at the 4 to limit Amile's minutes.

[jv001]

One other observation on Phase II. I hope to see improved free throw shooting from Jah. In last nights game, under 2 minutes, I wondered if Jah had fouled out. Then it hit me, Coach K took him out because the Badgers were fouling in an attempt to get back into the game. Jah has a decent stroke and should be a better foul shooter. Like I said, just another observation. GoDuke!

[Kedsy]

Can I ask why? In the three games where Semi barely played or did not play at all, Amile averaged 23.3 minutes, or 0.4 minutes above his average. I'm not disagreeing with you that the rebounding numbers will go up if given more minutes, but I'm not sure that Amile's minutes will increase that substantially. Coach K loves that spread 4, and Winslow will garner minutes at that position.

I can see Amile averaging 25 min a game, but I do see Winslow spending substantial time at the 4 to limit Amile's minutes.

It's not just Semi who affects Amile's minutes. If, for example, Grayson doesn't play at all, or Matt plays a few fewer minutes, then Justise's wing minutes are going to increase and his PF minutes would necessarily decrease, giving Amile more minutes.

If you look at Michigan State, Temple, Stanford, and Wisconsin, Amile has averaged 25.3 mpg (which I understand is pretty much what you're saying anyway). That's 10% more minutes than he's averaging overall. If his rpg also goes up 10%, he'd be over 9 rpg. That's all I'm saying.

[CDu]

I agree with this, though it's not necessarily Jahlil's rpg numbers that bother me as much as his subpar defensive rebounding percentage of 15.6%.

By the way, in the last phase post, some of us were discussing Amile's potential rpg numbers, and I'd like to point out that currently Amile is averaging 8.9 rpg in only 22.9 mpg. I believe his minutes will go up a little as the season wears on and his rebounding numbers will continue at the current level at least.

Careful, Kedsy. You cautioned kaze about making claims too early in another thread. I would offer the same words of caution to you here. Yes, Jefferson is averaging 8.3 rpg in just 23.1 mpg. If he maintains that rebounding pace with increased minutes, he would surely average 9+ rpg. But let's look more cloesly at his stats. Duke has played 3 "BCS" schools and four lesser schools (I am including Temple in the latter because they look weak this year). In the three BCS matchups, Jefferson has averaged 23.3 mpg but just 5 rpg. If you want to include Temple with the big boys, then Jefferson is averaging 25.3 mpg and just 5.8 rpg. Either way, his pace in big-conference games is a far cry from the pace needed to hit 9 rpg. His average is currently buoyed heavily by his three games against the small conference schools: he is averaging a crazy 10.3 rpg in 20 mpg in those three lesser matchups, which account for all of his 9+ rebound games.

We only have three or four more games against the weaker schools ( though some of the ACC matchups may end up qualifying). So I would wait until he puts up a few big rebound games against better comp this year before getting too excited about him reaching those 9 rpg. It still may happen, but not unless he steps in up in conference play.

[Kedsy]

Careful, Kedsy. You cautioned kaze about making claims too early in another thread. I would offer the same words of caution to you here. Yes, Jefferson is averaging 8.3 rpg in just 23.1 mpg. If he maintains that rebounding pace with increased minutes, he would surely average 9+ rpg. But let's look more cloesly at his stats. Duke has played 3 "BCS" schools and four lesser schools (I am including Temple in the latter because they look weak this year). In the three BCS matchups, Jefferson has averaged 23.3 mpg but just 5 rpg. If you want to include Temple with the big boys, then Jefferson is averaging 25.3 mpg and just 5.8 rpg. Either way, his pace in big-conference games is a far cry from the pace needed to hit 9 rpg. His average is currently buoyed heavily by his three games against the small conference schools: he is averaging a crazy 10.3 rpg in 20 mpg in those three lesser matchups, which account for all of his 9+ rebound games.

We only have three or four more games against the weaker schools ( though some of the ACC matchups may end up qualifying). So I would wait until he puts up a few big rebound games against better comp this year before getting too excited about him reaching those 9 rpg. It still may happen, but not unless he steps in up in conference play.

OK, that's fair. I take it all back. ;)

[Mike Corey]

We currently have 4 guys averaging 10.0 ppg or better, and 7 averaging 7 ppg or better.

Our K-coached Final Four teams have performed thusly:

2010: 3 guys over 10 ppg; 3 guys over 7 ppg
2004: 5 guys over 10 ppg; 6 guys over 7 ppg
2001: 5 guys over 10 ppg; 6 guys over 7 ppg
1999: 4 guys over 10 ppg; 6 guys over 7 ppg
1994: 4 guys over 10 ppg; 6 guys over 7 ppg
1992: 5 guys over 10 ppg; 5 guys over 7 ppg
1991: 5 guys over 10 ppg; 6 guys over 7 ppg
1990: 4 guys over 10 ppg; 5 guys over 7 ppg
1989: 3 guys over 10 ppg; 7 guys over 7 ppg
1988: 3 guys over 10 ppg; 5 guys over 7 ppg
1986: 3 guys over 10 ppg; 3 guys over 7 ppg

Will be curious to see if our production continues to be spread out as much as it was in '89...though our leading scorer that year was pouring in 22.6 a game.

[fuse]

We seem to have more players with killer instinct than we've had in the recent past.
Can we build on that and develop either a Laettner like get up big and keep 'em down ( the 5 to 8 to 12 to 18... to 30 and beyond lead) gameplay and crush the hope out of opponents? Or can we build the "refuse to lose" mentality/persona that the 2010 team had?

I'd just really like to see the Duke mystique firmly established where it is over before it begins, and other teams are afraid to play us. I think this team is capable of developing that reputation.

To quote Conan the Barbarian answering the all important question of what is best in life:
Crush your enemies, see them driven before you, and hear the lamentations of their women.

[luvdahops]

We currently have 4 guys averaging 10.0 ppg or better, and 7 averaging 7 ppg or better.

Our K-coached Final Four teams have performed thusly:

2010: 3 guys over 10 ppg; 3 guys over 7 ppg
2004: 5 guys over 10 ppg; 6 guys over 7 ppg
2001: 5 guys over 10 ppg; 6 guys over 7 ppg
1999: 4 guys over 10 ppg; 6 guys over 7 ppg
1994: 4 guys over 10 ppg; 6 guys over 7 ppg
1992: 5 guys over 10 ppg; 5 guys over 7 ppg
1991: 5 guys over 10 ppg; 6 guys over 7 ppg
1990: 4 guys over 10 ppg; 5 guys over 7 ppg
1989: 3 guys over 10 ppg; 7 guys over 7 ppg
1988: 3 guys over 10 ppg; 5 guys over 7 ppg
1986: 3 guys over 10 ppg; 3 guys over 7 ppg

Will be curious to see if our production continues to be spread out as much as it was in '89...though our leading scorer that year was pouring in 22.6 a game.

I expect we'll see 4-5 in double figures (current 4 plus potentially Sheed or, less likely, Amile). I think we'll see 6 for sure and possibly 7 at 7ppg or better, depending on Matt's PT and production. 7 at 7ppg or better probably results in only 4 in double figures though.

[Ultrarunner]

Would add the following:

-Improved defensive rebounding. IMHO, this is Jahlil's biggest area for improvement the balance of the year. His rpg numbers have arguably been a little disappointing thus far, particularly on the defensive end. Amile is rebounding well overall, but also much better on the offensive end, relatively speaking. Wisconsin kept themselves in the game last night by pounding the offensive boards. I hope this doesn't become a recurring theme when we play bigger teams.

-Can Rasheed evolve into the "6th starter" that many had him penciled in for? He has played pretty well thus far in a fairly limited role (especially last night), but I believe he is capable of more (perhaps around 10 ppg and 3 apg in ~25 mpg).

Not sure I agree with Wisconsin pounding the boards. They actually garnered (28.6%) a smaller percentage of ORebs than they usually do (30.6%).

[Ultrarunner]

I'm hoping to see the defensive communication get better with the freshmen. Amile has been a terrific quarterback, directing traffic. The returning guards have all been playing good D. Tyus is learning quickly from them, especially on not holding back. Last night, he made a greater commitment to being an intense defender. And sitting on the bench, Grayson has shown some signs of being the kind of defender down the road that really pisses people off.

Justise gets it on defense and moves his feet so well. Jah? Not so much, not yet but he's been a big upgrade from last year. Plumlee continues to be a good solid defender and above average offensive rebounder. Marshall alters a lot of shots, just be being in the right place. He's starting to show signs of Zoub's ability to recover quickly, too. Semi isn't there yet. As a group, they're behind the guards but learning fast.

If this team can learn to swarm the opposing offenses on a regular basis, they can be very, very good.

The thing that they collectively don't do well is defend the free throw line. Our opponents are shooting at 75.9 percent clip and we rank in the 300's on KenPom. Not sure how you scheme that since we clearly seem to be wearing teams out.

[COYS]

We seem to have more players with killer instinct than we've had in the recent past.
Can we build on that and develop either a Laettner like get up big and keep 'em down ( the 5 to 8 to 12 to 18... to 30 and beyond lead) gameplay and crush the hope out of opponents? Or can we build the "refuse to lose" mentality/persona that the 2010 team had?

I'd just really like to see the Duke mystique firmly established where it is over before it begins, and other teams are afraid to play us. I think this team is capable of developing that reputation.

To quote Conan the Barbarian answering the all important question of what is best in life:
Crush your enemies, see them driven before you, and hear the lamentations of their women.

I'm not disagreeing with you, exactly, but it's worth noting that the 2010 team DID develop that persona, in my opinion. For one thing, that team played at such a slow pace that a 12 point lead was more akin to an 18 point lead, an 18 point lead was more like a 30 point lead, and when we actually had a 30 point lead (82-50, anyone?) it was like a 50 point lead (obviously, these numbers are arbitrary, but you get the point). Meanwhile, that team absolutely and relentlessly beat down WVU in the Final Four in one of the best played tournament games Duke has ever had. Kyle absolutely had a killer instinct (i still remember his freshman year when Duke let the game slip away late against UNC in Cameron. As UNC was standing around, dribbling out the last few seconds, Kyle walks up and pokes the ball away from . . . Danny Green, was it? He clearly was not satisfied with losing). Jon was as cool as they come. And Nolan was ready to take and make the big shots. They didn't strike fear into opposing teams the way previous teams did, but that was more the result of how Duke teams had finished over the past few years. Quite frankly, as WVU found out, they SHOULD have feared Duke.

Maybe I'm just overly fond of the 2010 team and think they are unfairly underrated in the pantheon of Tourney winners, but I think the primary difference between 2010's grind-it-out-to-win-no-matter-what mentality and the Laettner era's crush 'em mentality is the pace at which those teams played.

[CDu]

Thanks Troublemaker for providing the Phase post. And congrats on surviving your first one; I know how stressful and exhausting they can be!

Things I'm looking for in this phase:

1. Is Jefferson's jumpshot for real? In the past two games, Jefferson has knocked down - I think - three 15-18 ft jumpshots. Were they just aberrant cases of opportunity, or has he really expanded his range such that we can expect him to shoot that shot a reasonable percentage (if open)? I'm hopeful it's the latter. If it is, our offense could reach an even higher gear, as that's one more thing defenses will have to consider. We're already loaded offensively at the other 4 spots (well, except for the 8-12 mpg that Plumlee plays, but you get the idea), and Jefferson is a very crafty scorer slinking along the baseline and slashing down the lane. If he can also hit that open jumper, there is just no "easy out" for a defense anymore.

2. Sulaimon finding his role. The Wisconsin game was almost a perfect game from him. He wasn't flawless, but for the most part he was doing all the right things. He was confident off the dribble. He only drove into the teeth of the defense once or twice, instead choosing to pull up at about 10-12 feet and use his mid-range floater (which he is pretty good at). He didn't force it. And he tried hard defensively. My only complaint was that he fell prey to the classic Duke blunder: he slapped the floor and then was immediately burned on defense for a bucket by his man (I feel like, since 2001, 90% of our floor slaps have immediately resulted in easy buckets against us). But aside from that faux pas, Sulaimon looked really good. It seems that Sulaimon's ideal role on this team is the sixth man lead guard role. He isn't being asked to facilitate, and he isn't being asked to play off another better offensive player. When he's in, his primary offensive role seems to be finding a way to get his best shot. Hopefully last night's game did wonders for his confidence, and I'd like to see him build on that against the weaker comp we have before ACC play.

3. Has Matt Jones really turned the page and found his offensive game? If so, man are we going to be tough. He is shooting amazingly well in a small sample of shot attempts so far, but if he's a 40% 3pt shooter and a capable scorer off the dribble, then we are really at a wealth of riches offensively. And he is probably our best perimeter defender (even better than Winslow, who is our best overall defender due to his ability to also defend PFs). So if he can be a useful weapon offensively, his role is only going to grow.

There are other things I'd like to see, but I don't think this is the phase to draw conclusions on: will Tyus Jones continue to be a maestro running the offense against tough opponents? Is Cook's hot start for real, or will he have his February fade again? Can Okafor find his rhythm against quality bigs? Our opponents are just too weak to answer these questions for now.

[luvdahops]

Not sure I agree with Wisconsin pounding the boards. They actually garnered (28.6%) a smaller percentage of ORebs than they usually do (30.6%).

Their season average is likely padded from the early cupcakes they played. In any event, they had a 10-3 edge in ORBs on Wednesday. Along with a +2 on TO margin, that is 9 extra possessions, which is one way for a poorer shooting team to stay in a game.

[CDu]

Their season average is likely padded from the early cupcakes they played. In any event, they had a 10-3 edge in ORBs on Wednesday. Along with a +2 on TO margin, that is 9 extra possessions, which is one way for a poorer shooting team to stay in a game.

Part of that 10-3 discrepancy is due to the fact that they missed a lot more than we did. We only missed 16 FG attempts to their 32. So they had 16 more chances at offensive rebounds on their FG attempts. They wound up with an offensive rebound percentage of 28.6% to our 15%. Had we missed 32 FG instead of 16, we quite easily could have wound up with 7 or 8 offensive rebounds ourselves, making the apparent rebound disparity all but disappear.

Another part of that difference is that Wisconsin took a much higher percentage of their shots from the outside, which lead to more long rebounds and better opportunity to get offensive rebounds. This can be seen by the fact that 5 of their 8 individual offensive rebounds came from perimeter-oriented offensive players. Hayes (arguably their best interior rebounder) had just 1 offensive rebound and Kaminsky (their second-best rebounder) had just two offensive boards.

A 28.6% offensive rebound percentage for a team is pretty mediocre. So I don't think that I would say that they kept in the game via pounding the offensive boards. They weren't very noteworthy in getting offensive rebounds. Compare the 28.6% rebound percentage, for example, to the UNC/Iowa game. Both of those teams were up over 40% on offensive rebound percentage. Now THAT is pounding the offensive boards to create second-chance points.

If anything, I'd say the opposite that we were pretty bad at pounding the offensive glass (on the rare instances that we missed) but were quite solid at pounding the defensive glass.

[Kedsy]

Their season average is likely padded from the early cupcakes they played. In any event, they had a 10-3 edge in ORBs on Wednesday. Along with a +2 on TO margin, that is 9 extra possessions, which is one way for a poorer shooting team to stay in a game.

I don't think it's productive to compare one team's offensive rebounds against their opponent's offensive rebounds. Offensive rebounds should be compared to the opponent's defensive rebounds. On the defensive side, from 1987 (when they started keeping the offensive rebound stat) until 2006, Duke generally rebounded 60% to 65% of available opponent misses. In the past eight years Duke has improved its rebounding and has ranged between 66.2% and 69.6% (2007, our best defensive rebounding team in the K era). And that includes the early season games against cupcakes. So to rebound 71.4% of our opponent's misses against a team as good and as big as Wisconsin is actually a very positive achievement.

You can never keep a decent opponent off the o-boards entirely. Our defensive rebounding against Wisconsin was actually a strength, or at least better than we should have expected, rather than the weakness you appear to be portraying.

[superdave]

What is the perception of our communication on the defensive end so far? Are our guys calling out screens, switches and rotations? Are they able to read our opponents plans and yell it out?

That is not something I can hear via TV, so I am wondering what people have seen who have attended games, and what the coaches are saying about it.

Obviously this team is good defensively and has a chance to get much, much better. Is Amile really leading the D as has been suggested? Does it hurt that his minutes are lower than expected? When he is not in, who takes up the slack?

[luvdahops]

I don't think it's productive to compare one team's offensive rebounds against their opponent's offensive rebounds. Offensive rebounds should be compared to the opponent's defensive rebounds. On the defensive side, from 1987 (when they started keeping the offensive rebound stat) until 2006, Duke generally rebounded 60% to 65% of available opponent misses. In the past eight years Duke has improved its rebounding and has ranged between 66.2% and 69.6% (2007, our best defensive rebounding team in the K era). And that includes the early season games against cupcakes. So to rebound 71.4% of our opponent's misses against a team as good and as big as Wisconsin is actually a very positive achievement.

You can never keep a decent opponent off the o-boards entirely. Our defensive rebounding against Wisconsin was actually a strength, or at least better than we should have expected, rather than the weakness you appear to be portraying.

Points conceded to both you and CDu on this. I do stand by my view that defensive rebounding is arguably Jahlil's most obvious weakness to date though. And something I believe he is capable of doing a much better job on.

[Kedsy]

I do stand by my view that defensive rebounding is arguably Jahlil's most obvious weakness to date though. And something I believe he is capable of doing a much better job on.

I agree on both these points.

[ACCBBallFan]

Don't want to spoil your party, but, barring injury, it looks like the rotation is set at 8, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a few games (or many games) where MP3 plays less than 8 minutes.

Grayson and Semi are important for the future of Duke basketball, but a) Grayson has 4 players in front of him who are either more talented or more poised and b) the "Winslow Experiment" at the 4 is clearly working and hence minimizing Semi's value.Not directed soley at you, but so many people over value PT vs. cupcaks an undervalue both:

1. learning that occurs daily playing against Duke's first unit that is best competition they will face all year (since they will not play vs UK even if first 8 does)

2. how much their effort at practice helps Duke's starting 5 on both ends oof the floor for example 3 point defense vs. MP3 and 4-shooters: Semi, Matt, Sheed and Grayson.

[CDu]

Points conceded to both you and CDu on this. I do stand by my view that defensive rebounding is arguably Jahlil's most obvious weakness to date though. And something I believe he is capable of doing a much better job on.

I would say the most glaring weakness is hi FT%. But it is true that he hasn't been nearly as dominant on the defensive glass as I would have thought coming in. I might not refer to it as an obvious weakness though. His defensive rebound % isn't terrible. But it is definitely not a strength. And it is certainly more improvable than his shooting.

[Kedsy]

His defensive rebound % isn't terrible. But it is definitely not a strength. And it is certainly more improvable than his shooting.

His DR% is currently 16.8% -- according to statsheet (http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/stats/rebounds_defensive_pct?games=1&conf=acc&season=2014-2015&min=) that ranks him 34th in the ACC right now among qualifiers. That's pretty pedestrian for a starting center, especially for a good one.

I don't know what statsheet uses as a minimum requirement, but it doesn't count guys like Marshall Plumlee, so 34th is pretty far down there.

[ACCBBallFan]

...

2. Sulaimon finding his role. The Wisconsin game was almost a perfect game from him. He wasn't flawless, but for the most part he was doing all the right things. He was confident off the dribble. He only drove into the teeth of the defense once or twice, instead choosing to pull up at about 10-12 feet and use his mid-range floater (which he is pretty good at). He didn't force it. ...

Frank the Tank Kamnsky says they may have ended up in his teeth, but that was not his teeth that Sheed drove into. That was painful to watch in so many ways, but nice "assist" to set up Thunder Dunk by MP3.

[ACCBBallFan]

His DR% is currently 16.8% -- according to statsheet (http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/stats/rebounds_defensive_pct?games=1&conf=acc&season=2014-2015&min=) that ranks him 34th in the ACC right now among qualifiers. That's pretty pedestrian for a starting center, especially for a good one.

I don't know what statsheet uses as a minimum requirement, but it doesn't count guys like Marshall Plumlee, so 34th is pretty far down there.

Amile is #10 and Justise is # 40.

Wow, lots of new names to get used to

ACC Leaders - Defensive Rebound Percentage
Rank Value Player-ACConly Yr Ht Wt Gms Team
01 35.96 Devin Thomas Jr 6-9 255 8 Wake Forest
02 28.65 Mike Tobey Jr 6-11 253 8 Virginia
03 27.77 Derrick Randall Sr 6-9 240 7 Pittsburgh
04 24.63 Kennedy Meeks So 6-9 290 7 North Carolina
05 24.24 Pat Connaughton Sr 6-5 218 8 Notre Dame
06 23.61 Zach Auguste Jr 6-10 242 8 Notre Dame
07 23.59 Robert Sampson Sr 6-8 224 7 Georgia Tech
08 23.51 Boris Bojanovsky Jr 7-3 240 7 Florida State
09 22.47 Tonye Jekiri Jr 7-0 244 8 Miami (FL)
10 22.29 Amile Jefferson Jr 6-9 215 8 Duke
11 22.22 Dennis Clifford Jr 7-1 250 6 Boston College
12 22.15 Kyle Washington So 6-9 230 7 NC State
13 22.0 Lennard Freeman So 6-8 245 7 NC State
14 21.87 Abdul-Malik Abu Fr 6-8 235 7 NC State
16 20.87 Darion Atkins Sr 6-8 234 8 Virginia
17 20.37 B.J. Johnson So 6-7 185 6 Syracuse
18 19.99 Joey van Zegeren Jr 6-10 235 7 Virginia Tech
19 19.91 Jaron BlossomgamSo 6-7 215 7 Clemson
20 18.95 Demarco Cox Sr 6-8 276 7 Georgia Tech
20 17.74 Damonte Dodd So 6-11 245 8 Maryland
21 18.82 Rakeem Christma Sr 6-9 250 7 Syracuse
22 18.7 Charles Mitchell Jr 6-8 269 7 Georgia Tech
23 17.03 Jake Layman Jr 6-9 205 8 Maryland
24 18.0 Omar Sherman Fr 6-8 260 8 Miami (FL)
25 17.83 Brice Johnson Jr 6-9 228 7 North Carolina
26 17.76 Konstantin Mitogl Fr 6-10 225 8 Wake Forest
27 17.75 Anthony Gill Jr 6-8 230 8 Virginia
29 17.33 Landry Nnoko Jr 6-10 255 7 Clemson
30 17.13 Chris McCullough Fr 6-10 220 7 Syracuse
31 16.93 Sheldon McClella Jr 6-5 206 8 Miami (FL)
32 16.89 Patrick Heckman Sr 6-6 210 6 Boston College
33 16.84 Cornelius Hudson Fr 6-6 180 8 Wake Forest
34 16.8 Jahlil Okafor Fr 6-11 270 8 Duke
35 16.66 Montay Brandon Jr 6-8 225 7 Florida State
36 16.45 Theo Pinson Fr 6-6 195 7 North Carolina
37 15.07 Michael Young So 6-9 235 7 Pittsburgh
39 14.87 Jamel Artis So 6-7 220 7 Pittsburgh
40 14.54 Justise Winslow Fr 6-6 225 8 Duke

[azzefkram]

... My only complaint was that he fell prey to the classic Duke blunder: he slapped the floor and then was immediately burned on defense for a bucket by his man (I feel like, since 2001, 90% of our floor slaps have immediately resulted in easy buckets against us)...

I thought it was never get involved in a land war in Asia.

[ACCBBallFan]

That application still had MD in ACC and L-ville in AAC.

After I adjusted for that and set an arbitrary cut off of top 50 and number in top 50 ACC Rebounders by team is:

5 Louisville
5 Virginia
5 Wake Forest

4 Florida State
4 NC State

3 Duke
3 Georgia Tech
3 Miami (FL)
3 North Carolina
3 Pittsburgh
3 Syracuse
3 Virginia Tech

2 Boston College
2 Clemson
2 Notre Dame
--
50

Did you notice the disparity between #1 and #2?

01 35.96 Devin Thomas Jr 6-9 255 8 Wake Forest
02 28.65 Mike Tobey Jr 6-11 253 8 Virginia

If instead the limit is set as top 40, Duke fares as well as anyone except Lville, as most ACC tams have 3

4 Louisville

3 Duke
3 Georgia Tech
3 Miami (FL)
3 North Carolina
3 NC State
3 Pittsburgh
3 Syracuse
3 Virginia
3 Wake Forest

2 Boston College
2 Clemson
2 Florida State
2 Notre Dame

1 Virginia Tech

[CDu]

So that list definitely does include some scrubs racking up stats in garbage time. But I do stand corrected: Okafor's DReb% is very mediocre. And also something he should definitely work on along with FT shooting.

[ACCBBallFan]

NC State has 3 in the top 20, all three in the 11-20 range

Notre Dame (both in top 10 also), UVA (one in top 10) and GA Tech (one in top 10) each had two in top 20 and every other ACC team one.

[sagegrouse]

In the too-good to-be-true-category, can we keep --

Carving up the opponents like leftover turkey? The guys have been speedy and aggressive in the running game and easily penetrating the defense in the half court.

Shooting lights out -- 40 percent from three-point range and over 60 percent inside the arc?

Bringing in the best sub I can remember? Rasheed comes in and takes over the game.

[Kedsy]

Bringing in the best sub I can remember? Rasheed comes in and takes over the game.

No offense, but unless you've suffered amnesia lately this statement doesn't stand up to scrutiny.

Here's a list of Duke subs from 1998 to 2002 (I assume you remember at least some of these):

1998: Will Avery
1999: Corey Maggette
2000: Mike Dunleavy
2001: Chris Duhon (and when Duhon started at the end of the year, Nate James)
2002: Daniel Ewing

Plus a few others you might remember, off the top of my head:

1990: Bill McCaffrey
1989: Christian Laettner (most of the season)
1985: David Henderson

There have been a lot of other great Duke players to come off the bench, although perhaps many of them weren't ready for prime time yet. And I suppose reasonable minds could differ whether Rasheed is a "better sub" than a few of the above. But clearly not all.

So, sorry, but Rasheed Sulaimon can't possibly be the best sub you remember.

[bbosbbos]

Our opponents are just too weak to answer these questions for now.

OMG, in ncaa there is only one better team than Wisconsin, it is called Calimaliiii led Fried Chicken. So you think we need to meet Fried Chicken for a real challenge? :p:p

[CDu]

OMG, in ncaa there is only one better team than Wisconsin, it is called Calimaliiii led Fried Chicken. So you think we need to meet Fried Chicken for a real challenge? :p:p

I was referring to our opponents in the next phase, not the previous games.

[CDu]

No offense, but unless you've suffered amnesia lately this statement doesn't stand up to scrutiny.

Here's a list of Duke subs from 1998 to 2002 (I assume you remember at least some of these):

1998: Will Avery
1999: Corey Maggette
2000: Mike Dunleavy
2001: Chris Duhon (and when Duhon started at the end of the year, Nate James)
2002: Daniel Ewing

Plus a few others you might remember, off the top of my head:

1990: Bill McCaffrey
1989: Christian Laettner (most of the season)
1985: David Henderson

There have been a lot of other great Duke players to come off the bench, although perhaps many of them weren't ready for prime time yet. And I suppose reasonable minds could differ whether Rasheed is a "better sub" than a few of the above. But clearly not all.

So, sorry, but Rasheed Sulaimon can't possibly be the best sub you remember.

I seem to recall Jon Scheyer being a pretty adequate 6th man too.

[bbosbbos]

We will play Uconn in Izod Center on December 18. I remember Uconn used to have very good guards, shooting 3s and slashing to rim very often. I do not know if this 2014 Uconn plays in a similar way. Quick and strong guards are still a headache to our D. For example, the Jackson guy, 6-3 guard of Wisconsin, scored 26 pts on us few days ago. If I were a coach I will try to employ a small lineup to test Duke D.

[sagegrouse]

No offense, but unless you've suffered amnesia lately this statement doesn't stand up to scrutiny.

Here's a list of Duke subs from 1998 to 2002 (I assume you remember at least some of these):

1998: Will Avery
1999: Corey Maggette
2000: Mike Dunleavy
2001: Chris Duhon (and when Duhon started at the end of the year, Nate James)
2002: Daniel Ewing

Plus a few others you might remember, off the top of my head:

1990: Bill McCaffrey
1989: Christian Laettner (most of the season)
1985: David Henderson

There have been a lot of other great Duke players to come off the bench, although perhaps many of them weren't ready for prime time yet. And I suppose reasonable minds could differ whether Rasheed is a "better sub" than a few of the above. But clearly not all.

So, sorry, but Rasheed Sulaimon can't possibly be the best sub you remember.
If you don't like my opinion, perhaps you'll agree that Rasheed is a heckuva player and wonder, as I do, whether he can keep it up. As to your snarky comment about my emory, I was friends with Mullins and Buckley the elder and have followed Duke hoops closely for 55 years.

Rasheed is changing the game on both offense and defense the minute he comes on the court. Rasheed's performance IMHO is ahead of everyone on the list. Rasheed is playing at an NBA level today. David Henderson was second. One looks at Suleimon's play and says, "This is the best player on the court; why isn't he starting?" Of course, it helps that he's an upperclassmen -- rookies McCaffrey and Dunleavy were a little on the weak side and not playing at this level. Maggette, although he was strong as a freshman, did not have the experience.

[CDu]

We will play Uconn in Izod Center on December 18. I remember Uconn used to have very good guards, shooting 3s and slashing to rim very often. I do not know if this 2014 Uconn plays in a similar way. Quick and strong guards are still a headache to our D. For example, the Jackson guy, 6-3 guard of Wisconsin, scored 26 pts on us few days ago. If I were a coach I will try to employ a small lineup to test Duke D.

UConn isn't the same UConn of years past. They just lost to Yale. They have one good quick guard in Boatwright, though.

I am not sure facing a small lineup is to our disadvantage. Go small and Jefferson and Winslow kill you on the glass. And in the event that we have trouble with speed, we can go with as many as four guards (Sulaimon and M Jones replacing our forwards) and still be putting much more talent on the floor than our opponents.

[Clay Feet POF]

No offense, but unless you've suffered amnesia lately this statement doesn't stand up to scrutiny.

Here's a list of Duke subs from 1998 to 2002 (I assume you remember at least some of these):

1998: Will Avery
1999: Corey Maggette
2000: Mike Dunleavy
2001: Chris Duhon (and when Duhon started at the end of the year, Nate James)
2002: Daniel Ewing

Plus a few others you might remember, off the top of my head:

1990: Bill McCaffrey
1989: Christian Laettner (most of the season)
1985: David Henderson

There have been a lot of other great Duke players to come off the bench, although perhaps many of them weren't ready for prime time yet. And I suppose reasonable minds could differ whether Rasheed is a "better sub" than a few of the above. But clearly not all.

So, sorry, but Rasheed Sulaimon can't possibly be the best sub you remember.



Let's live in the moment, its a great feeling, and remember it his Dream.

[Kedsy]

If you don't like my opinion, perhaps you'll agree that Rasheed is a heckuva player and wonder, as I do, whether he can keep it up. As to your snarky comment about my emory, I was friends with Mullins and Buckley the elder and have followed Duke hoops closely for 55 years.

Rasheed is changing the game on both offense and defense the minute he comes on the court. Rasheed's performance IMHO is ahead of everyone on the list. Rasheed is playing at an NBA level today. David Henderson was second. One looks at Suleimon's play and says, "This is the best player on the court; why isn't he starting?" Of course, it helps that he's an upperclassmen -- rookies McCaffrey and Dunleavy were a little on the weak side and not playing at this level. Maggette, although he was strong as a freshman, did not have the experience.

I wasn't being snarky. I'm simply flabbergasted that you believe Rasheed is the best sub we've had in your memory.

Based on the eye test, which admittedly is subjective and arbitrary, I personally don't think Rasheed is currently playing anywhere close to an NBA level right now, nor do I believe he's anywhere close to being the best player on the court. When I watch the games I see a huge dropoff when Rasheed comes in and Tyus, Quinn, Justise, or Amile goes out. Which of course may be a statement about our other players, rather than Rasheed (but still argues that he isn't the best player on the court).

But, like I say, the eye test is subjective. An objective statistical look at Duke's top subs over the past 20 years (plus a couple extras from the '80s because they were really good) supports the claim that Rasheed is not the best sub we've ever had, or even particularly near the top in that category. Looking over the chart below, I'd rate him somewhere in the middle. Out of the 26 guys I've charted, Rasheed is 18th in minutes, tied for 11th in points, 23rd in rebounds, 6th in assists, tied for 16th in blocks, tied for 10th in steals, 11th in FG%, tied for 9th in 3-pt pct, and 9th in FT%. That's not bad, considering his low-ish minutes, but it's nowhere near the best.



Year Player starts mpg ppg rpg apg bpg spg FG% 3-pct FT%
2015 Sulaimon 0 of 8 18.4 7.4 1.6 2.0 0.1 0.8 47.7 36.8 71.4
2014 A Dawkins 4 of 33 13.7 7.9 1.3 0.4 0.2 0.5 44.4 42.1 81.1
2013 Thornton 6 of 36 22.0 3.6 2.3 2.2 0.1 1.3 40.6 39.2 68.0
2012 A Dawkins 14 of 34 21.0 8.4 2.1 0.6 0.1 0.4 40.0 39.2 73.9
2012 Miles Plumlee 16 of 34 20.5 6.6 7.1 0.5 0.9 0.5 61.0 0.0 63.2
2011 A Dawkins 7 of 37 21.0 8.0 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.6 48.1 42.7 79.1
2011 Miles Plumlee 15 of 37 17.0 4.8 4.9 0.4 0.5 0.6 51.8 0.0 59.2
2010 Zoubek 16 of 40 18.7 5.6 7.7 1.0 0.8 0.7 63.8 0.0 55.1
2010 Mason Plumlee 1 of 34 14.1 3.7 3.1 0.9 0.9 0.5 46.2 25.0 54.3
2009 Paulus 5 of 36 16.1 4.9 1.3 1.3 0.0 0.8 37.3 33.6 69.2
2008 Scheyer 1 of 34 28.3 11.7 3.9 2.4 0.3 1.4 44.4 38.8 88.9
2007 G Henderson 10 of 36 19.3 6.8 2.9 1.1 0.3 0.5 45.1 32.0 62.7
2006 Nelson 7 of 36 21.5 7.1 3.4 1.2 0.1 0.8 45.2 41.0 64.9
2006 Melchionni 5 of 36 19.9 5.7 3.2 0.9 0.1 1.0 36.4 32.0 66.7
2005 Nelson 2 of 33 19.2 6.2 4.5 0.8 0.3 0.8 40.0 31.9 53.2
2004 Randolph 10 of 37 19.2 7.0 4.5 0.5 1.6 0.7 59.1 20.0 66.7
2003 Randolph 6 of 33 13.5 7.4 3.9 0.3 0.9 0.5 50.4 36.8 68.3
2002 Ewing 0 of 35 18.2 6.5 2.2 1.3 0.0 0.9 47.9 45.7 68.6
2001 Duhon 10 of 39 27.8 7.2 3.2 4.5 0.0 2.0 42.4 36.1 65.0
2000 Dunleavy 2 of 34 24.1 9.1 1.3 1.7 0.5 1.1 46.0 35.1 73.8
1999 Maggette 3 of 39 17.7 10.6 3.9 1.5 0.4 0.7 52.5 34.5 57.7
1998 Avery 0 of 35 19.3 8.5 2.0 2.5 0.0 1.0 42.7 29.6 74.4
1997 Price 11 of 33 21.4 9.4 2.7 0.8 0.2 0.7 39.4 29.6 66.3
1996 Wojo 4 of 31 21.8 3.4 2.1 2.7 0.0 0.9 31.8 27.9 76.2
1989 Laettner 16 of 36 16.9 8.9 4.7 1.2 0.8 1.0 72.3 100.0 72.7
1985 D Henderson 1 of 31 23.6 11.3 3.5 1.8 0.1 1.3 49.8 0.0 62.0


Having said all that, of course I'll agree that Rasheed is a heckuva player, though he does seem to go too fast and frenetic sometimes. I fully expect him to keep up his current pace, or even improve, though since I don't think his performance to date has been so otherworldly, that probably isn't as impressive a statement on my part as it is on your part when you ask the question.

[DukieInBrasil]

If you don't like my opinion, perhaps you'll agree that Rasheed is a heckuva player and wonder, as I do, whether he can keep it up. As to your snarky comment about my emory, I was friends with Mullins and Buckley the elder and have followed Duke hoops closely for 55 years.

Rasheed is changing the game on both offense and defense the minute he comes on the court. Rasheed's performance IMHO is ahead of everyone on the list. Rasheed is playing at an NBA level today. David Henderson was second. One looks at Suleimon's play and says, "This is the best player on the court; why isn't he starting?" Of course, it helps that he's an upperclassmen -- rookies McCaffrey and Dunleavy were a little on the weak side and not playing at this level. Maggette, although he was strong as a freshman, did not have the experience.

Reasonable minds can, and in this case will, disagree. I haven't followed Duke for 55 years, but Sulaimon might be in my top 5 6th man at Duke. Maggette, Dunleavy, Duhon and Fr. Laettner are all ahead of him. Sulaimon has had one good game as a 6th man, and it was an excellent performance in a big-time game, so i'm not trying to disparage him. It takes more than one good game to be the best.

I also will disagree with your opinions that he is NBA level right now, that he's the best player on the court when he comes in and that he should be starting. If he's on the court with Jahlil, Tyus, Quinn and sometimes even Justise or Amile, then he's not the best, or often second, third or fourth best. If he continues to improve on the level of play he displayed vs. Wisconsin, then i would begin to agree with both of those statements. He played well vs. Whiskey, and i hope he sustains or even improves on it, but it's gonna take more than one game to convince me of any of the things you mentioned.

[azzefkram]

Quick and strong guards are still a headache to our D. For example, the Jackson guy, 6-3 guard of Wisconsin, scored 26 pts on us few days ago.

I wouldn't read too much into Jackson's performance. IIRC someone in the postgame thread mentioned that he is capable of big games. Also, it's a tad easier to drive when surrounded by 4 good shooters. That shouldn't be an issue with UConn.


UConn isn't the same UConn of years past. They just lost to Yale. They have one good quick guard in Boatwright, though.

I am not sure facing a small lineup is to our disadvantage. Go small and Jefferson and Winslow kill you on the glass. And in the event that we have trouble with speed, we can go with as many as four guards (Sulaimon and M Jones replacing our forwards) and still be putting much more talent on the floor than our opponents.

As someone who is subjected to UConn far more than anyone should be, I mostly agree with this. Boatwright can be very good but he tweaked an ankle in the Texas game. They say he's day to day but ankles can linger. Hamilton is a good player but a freshman. Brimah will probably be really good by his senior year but is more of an athlete than a basketball player at this point. The only big I'd be worried about with him is Semi. Calhoun's great nephew, Omar, has been injured and when he has played has been a bit underwhelming. Purvis is the guy we remember from State.

The thing I worry about with UConn is their nasty habit of playing to the competition. Texas need a last second three to beat them. Even with Rick Barnes at helm, Texas should have beaten them comfortably.

UConn is a bit more than just Boatwright, not not a whole lot more.

[Kedsy]

I haven't followed Duke for 55 years, but Sulaimon might be in my top 5 6th man at Duke. Maggette, Dunleavy, Duhon and Fr. Laettner are all ahead of him.

As CDu rightly pointed out, Jon Scheyer in 2008 certainly belongs in this conversation as well. As do potentially a few others.

[DukieInBrasil]

As CDu rightly pointed out, Jon Scheyer in 2008 certainly belongs in this conversation as well. As do potentially a few others.

I think Scheyer may have been the best in the 6th man role, as opposed to just be a really good non-starter. I'm not sure exactly what the difference between the two is, but to me Jon embodied the essence of a 6th starter, as opposed to Maggette, for example, who played phenomenally well (at times) off the bench, but wasn't as versatile as Jon. I guess, Jon could come in for any number the starters if they were struggling and play would improve, whereas i don't think of Maggette could have done that. Maggette came in to score points.
And in that sense, Sulaimon could fill that 6th man role very well for this team. In fact, his game vs. Wisc was a good example of doing just that. If he can do that consistently, he'll belong in the conversation. I hope he can.

[ACCBBallFan]

UConn isn't the same UConn of years past. They just lost to Yale. They have one good quick guard in Boatwright, though.

I am not sure facing a small lineup is to our disadvantage. Go small and Jefferson and Winslow kill you on the glass. And in the event that we have trouble with speed, we can go with as many as four guards (Sulaimon and M Jones replacing our forwards) and still be putting much more talent on the floor than our opponents.
Boatright played 35 minutes but poorly (6 pts, 0-4 from 3, 6 asst 4 turnovers) as he was playing hurt and Purvis only played 8 minutes as both were playing hurt.

Should be another interesting test for big Jah facing Amida Brimah, and vice versa.

[sagegrouse]

I wasn't being snarky. I'm simply flabbergasted that you believe Rasheed is the best sub we've had in your memory.

Based on the eye test, which admittedly is subjective and arbitrary, I personally don't think Rasheed is currently playing anywhere close to an NBA level right now, nor do I believe he's anywhere close to being the best player on the court. When I watch the games I see a huge dropoff when Rasheed comes in and Tyus, Quinn, Justise, or Amile goes out. Which of course may be a statement about our other players, rather than Rasheed (but still argues that he isn't the best player on the court).

But, like I say, the eye test is subjective. An objective statistical look at Duke's top subs over the past 20 years (plus a couple extras from the '80s because they were really good) supports the claim that Rasheed is not the best sub we've ever had, or even particularly near the top in that category. Looking over the chart below, I'd rate him somewhere in the middle. Out of the 26 guys I've charted, Rasheed is 18th in minutes, tied for 11th in points, 23rd in rebounds, 6th in assists, tied for 16th in blocks, tied for 10th in steals, 11th in FG%, tied for 9th in 3-pt pct, and 9th in FT%. That's not bad, considering his low-ish minutes, but it's nowhere near the best.

Having said all that, of course I'll agree that Rasheed is a heckuva player, though he does seem to go too fast and frenetic sometimes. I fully expect him to keep up his current pace, or even improve, though since I don't think his performance to date has been so otherworldly, that probably isn't as impressive a statement on my part as it is on your part when you ask the question.

No reason for a dispute -- I was just trying to feed ideas to the OP, and I thought that Rasheed was phenomenal against Wisconsin. The Phase II question is "Will he play exceptional as a sub?"

[jv001]

As CDu rightly pointed out, Jon Scheyer in 2008 certainly belongs in this conversation as well. As do potentially a few others.

As does, Billy McCaffrey as a 6th man for the Blue Devils. GoDuke!

[gumbomoop]

This is really a Phase 3 and beyond concern. I'm a little worried about the relatively low FT % of Jahlil, Justise, and Amile. The biggest concern would be that some teams will hack-a-Jahlil if his FT % stays down near 50%. But even in the absence of such a blatant strategy, Duke might drop an otherwise clearly winnable game or two if these 3 guys don't consistently get close to 67%.

Of our top 6 players, Quinn is excellent at FTs, but so far hasn't gotten to the line much. Rasheed is not quite excellent this season, but solid; while he thinks he gets fouled a lot driving to the rim, the refs don't always agree. Tyus both gets to the line a fair number of times and hits a high %.

But those other 3, all do and can be expected to continue to get to the line, but don't shoot FTs well enough to inspire full confidence. So Duke's current team FT% -- as it is just an ok 68.5 % -- seems inflated a bit. [Including Marshall's miraculous 100%.]

I'm not so much concerned about protecting, say, a 5-7 point lead in the final 2 minutes, as Quinn, Tyus, and Rasheed would have the ball. But against good teams, it's conceivable that Duke will occasionally have trouble actually having a late lead, if our 3 mediocre FT shooters have missed more than a few that game.

I wouldn't want to see those 3 struggling down around 55-60% halfway through conference play.

[fidel]

After reading on the front page for the umpteenth time how historically great this team is, I thought it wise that we add:

Can this team ignore the hype and concentrate on the next game?

[superdave]

According to KenPom, this year's squad is averaging 68.0 possessions per 40 minutes (#87 in country).

Previous seasons -
2014 - 66.0 possessions (#190)
2013 - 67.6 (#96)
2012 - 67.6 (#96) (I double check....same #s two years in a row)
2011 - 69.3 (#51)
2010 - 65.5 (#249)

So Duke's pace has not changed dramatically the last several years. But in 2002 we were at 75.3 (#13) and above 70 in 2003, 2006, 2008. It makes sense that we ran (a lot) with JWill, Duhon, etc.

Does anyone expect us to push the pace more during conference play?

Are we leaving something on the table if we dont hit 70+ possession considering we have a lot of athletes and two PGs on the floor?

[Kedsy]

According to KenPom, this year's squad is averaging 68.0 possessions per 40 minutes (#87 in country).

Previous seasons -
2014 - 66.0 possessions (#190)
2013 - 67.6 (#96)
2012 - 67.6 (#96) (I double check....same #s two years in a row)
2011 - 69.3 (#51)
2010 - 65.5 (#249)

So Duke's pace has not changed dramatically the last several years. But in 2002 we were at 75.3 (#13) and above 70 in 2003, 2006, 2008. It makes sense that we ran (a lot) with JWill, Duhon, etc.

Does anyone expect us to push the pace more during conference play?

Are we leaving something on the table if we dont hit 70+ possession considering we have a lot of athletes and two PGs on the floor?

This is a more complicated question than it would first appear. For one thing, we've been playing against mostly slow-paced teams (slow enough that our unadjusted pace, also 68.0, ranks 150th in the country):



Team Unadj Pace Unadj Rank Adj Pace Adj Rank Duke poss against
Presbyterian 63.6 313 62.2 324 67
Fairfield 66.6 198 64.4 258 74
Michigan St. 66.6 198 66.3 166 65
Temple 66.4 212 66.9 134 69
Stanford 65.8 234 65.0 232 64
Furman 66.8 190 66.9 132 65
Army 73.3 31 69.7 41 72
Wisconsin 62.9 324 62.7 313 61
Elon 74.8 21 70.7 22 73
UConn 66.4 212 65.6 201 67


We've faced two fast-paced teams and the other eight are all ranked 190 or worse (raw figures). Even using Pomeroy's adjusted tempo, half our opponents are ranked 200+.

The real question with tempo is whether a team can impose its favored pace on its opponent. Looking at the games so far, the answer for Duke would appear to be not really. Almost all our opponents (all but Presbyterian and Fairfield, and possibly Temple) played pretty much exactly where they wanted to be (or, more accurately, a little below their average).

In other words, so far Duke has adjusted to its opponent's preferred tempo instead of forcing its opponents to play at Duke's preferred tempo.

Here are the adjusted pace numbers for our ACC opponents:

UNC, 71.8 (#12)
Louisville, 70.0 (#34)
Wake Forest, 69.8 (#36)
FSU, 69.0 (#58)
Va Tech, 67.1 (#124)
Ga Tech, 66.9 (#131)
NCSU, 66.8 (#138)
Syracuse, 66.4 (#165)
BC, 65.8 (#192)
N Dame, 64.4 (#259)
Clemson, 63.3 (#293)
Miami, 62.9 (#307)
Pitt, 60.9 (#342)
UVa, 59.3 (#348)

We play UNC, Wake, Notre Dame, and Syracuse twice. But with almost half the league playing at a snail's pace, I think it's unlikely that our pace will increase during conference play.

[superdave]

The real question with tempo is whether a team can impose its favored pace on its opponent. Looking at the games so far, the answer for Duke would appear to be not really. Almost all our opponents (all but Presbyterian and Fairfield, and possibly Temple) played pretty much exactly where they wanted to be (or, more accurately, a little below their average).

Thanks, Kedsy.

I generally equate faster pace to forcing live-ball turnovers through aggressively playing the passing lanes and pressing/trapping, as opposed to just shooting earlier in the shot clock. In other words, I dont see Duke playing like the 2006 Phoenix Suns (7 Seconds Or Less Offense). But I see Duke using its defense to speed other teams up.

So is it fair to correlate turnovers forced to pace?

Duke is forcing 14.6 turnovers per game. At 68 possessions per game that is 21.5% of possessions.

Last season we forced 12.14 turnovers per game. At 66 possessions per game that is 18.4% of possessions.

Looking at the 2010 team (the best of the slower, more methodical Duke teams), we forced 11.38 turnovers per game or 17.37% of possessions. That team was great on the boards though, so they excelled in a different way. Going back to 2002, that Duke square forced 19.74 turnovers per game or 26.2% of possessions.

This team seems to be somewhere in the middle. They are playing good defense and getting stops, but not speeding teams up or forcing them to play our game. I am a little surprised we are not running more this season.

Coach K usually saves a few wrinkles for later in the season. I think we may have seen some of that vs UConn with Winslow posting his guy up (three times in the 2nd half?) and Okafor getting a few passes on the move where he did not have to fight for position.

I hope we see some defensive wrinkles as well with Sulaimon and Jones (and even Allen) coming in to pick up full court for several possessions in a row. I'd like to see a few traps on the wing by Jefferson and Winslow and whatever else the coaches come up with. These things work like changeups in baseball, to keep the opponent out of rhythm. We've got the personnel to do most anything so it should be fun to watch.

[MChambers]

Coach K usually saves a few wrinkles for later in the season. I think we may have seen some of that vs UConn with Winslow posting his guy up (three times in the 2nd half?) and Okafor getting a few passes on the move where he did not have to fight for position.
Don't tell Wheat, but I saw Amile screening for Jahlil in the low post at least once, when Brimah picked up a foul (either his fourth or fifth). I hadn't noticed that earlier in the season, but it's possible I missed it.

[sagegrouse]

It is only three more days until the Devils return to the courts! In fact, we are two-thirds of the way through our second lengthy period of enforced idleness, and there has been minimal kvetching about it here. Our self-control is due not only to the time we spend with our families over the holidays but also to the anticipation of the upcoming bowl game for our formidable football game.

We have the Toledo Rockets (7-4) of the MAC on Monday, followed by the Wofford Terriers (9-3) of the SoCon on Wednesday. Wofford won at State on December 14, so we can expect a tough game. Go Duke!

[Duke3517]

I think Duke's nutrition levels are real good as well. They don't seem to be tiring late in games. I'm glad their is a better emphasis on nutrition this year. Keep up the wonderful work!

[Neals384]

OK, it's time for a Phase III post! Who'd inbounding?

[Kedsy]

OK, it's time for a Phase III post! Who'd inbounding?

I'll try to have it up sometime tomorrow.