MBB: Duke 113, Presbyterian 44 Post-Game Thread

[kAzE]

Well, Duke is pretty good.

Every single guy on the team was fantastic tonight. 30 assists as a team . . . that's crazy.

Jahlil was the best guy on the floor, and looks like the second coming of Tim Duncan. He's so calm in the post and absolutely destroyed every single double team they threw at him. He's going to average something like 18 points, 10 boards, and 4 assists a game. Absolute beast.

Winslow was also magnificent. He's so hard to stop on the drive, finishes through contact, makes plays for teammates, hustles on D, and hits threes. Not sure we've had such a versatile player since Grant Hill.

Cook seems like he should have been playing shooting guard his whole career. He's a much better spot up shooter than he's ever gotten credit for. He will easily lead the team in 3s. He and Tyus were slinging the ball around and combined for 13 assists and 1 turnover . . . I like having both in the starting lineup. With those 2 and Winslow, there's basically 3 point guards on the floor who can all shoot, drive, and pass.

Sulaimon was showing some amazing body control on some of those drives, along with improved decision making. He seems to be the back up point guard, and lead ball handler on the second unit. He looked very strong on his drives to the basket.

Whoever thought Grayson Allen wasn't going to get big minutes this year is sadly mistaken. That boy can play. He looks like the team's 7th man.

Hard to draw any major conclusions from this game, but this team's full court defense is awesome. We didn't even allow a 3 until late in the 2nd half when we went zone. There's going to be some delicious, high flying fast break action this year. Loved every minute.

Plumlee for 3!!!!!

[Ichabod Drain]

I'll put some money down that Marshall will have the best three point percentage on the team at the end of the year!

Who wants in?

[Duvall]

I think Duke has found its reliable 3-point shooter. Stretch 5?

[MarkD83]

And very balanced....10 players scored..11 players had a rebound and 10 players had an assist.

[dukelifer]

I think Duke has found its reliable 3-point shooter. Stretch 5?

Odd that he looked more comfortable on that shot then from two feet out.

[Troublemaker]

I think Duke has found its reliable 3-point shooter. Stretch 5?

We'll be ready for Wisconsin. It's nice to have a weapon like that around to imitate Kaminsky in practice.

[OldPhiKap]

We scored 113, and played ZONE for most of the last ten minutes.

I have not seen us play zone that much over the last twenty years combined.

[Saratoga2]

Duke started two pgs so we didn't learn much about Matt vs Rasheed as starting SG

That was such a blowout that it is really difficult to see substitution patterns going forward.

Grayson is pretty good all around. Is he version 2 of the energizer bunny?

Our 4's certainly picked up a lot of fouls

Semi seemed to only be shooting from 3 land. I would have thought more around the rim

Jahlil was NBA like even though he wasn't needed all that much tonight

[devildeac]

I'll put some money down that Marshall will have the best three point percentage on the team at the end of the year!

Who wants in?

Now you know why we've called him MP3;).

[devildeac]

We scored 113, and played ZONE for most of the last ten minutes.

I have not seen us play zone that much over the last twenty years combined.

Maybe 30 years.

Alternative universe with two different zones and MP3 "camped" (cough) on the perimeter waiting for the pass for his 3-ball:D.

[azzefkram]

Must... temper... enthusiasm... aww forget it. It may not tell us much but it was sure fun to watch. Lots of unselfish play and some good D. Super impressed with our team.

[mapei]

Well THAT was impressive. In about 8 ways. Yeah, inferior competition, but this team is loaded.

[roywhite]

First time I've see the team this year. Initial observations:

Very impressed with the talent and maturity of the freshmen (all 4)
Like the unselfish nature of this team; plenty of assists
Team defense was impressive

Competition gets tougher soon, so we'll get a better handle, but great first impression.

[DukieInBrasil]

I'm a believer.

[mo.st.dukie]

I don't know how many wins this team will have or how far they are going to go in the tournament but they will play tough and together. The un-seflishness and passing was beautiful to watch and they really played hard all night. As we heard from Coach K in the preseason, the freshmen are all very mature both physically and mentally. The team has potential to play multiple styles and throw different defenses out there (maybe not a high chance we'll play that much zone against better competition).

[Troublemaker]

Duke started two pgs so we didn't learn much about Matt vs Rasheed as starting SG

That was such a blowout that it is really difficult to see substitution patterns going forward.

Grayson is pretty good all around. Is he version 2 of the energizer bunny?

Our 4's certainly picked up a lot of fouls

Semi seemed to only be shooting from 3 land. I would have thought more around the rim

Jahlil was NBA like even though he wasn't needed all that much tonight

McKayla Maroney was impressed with this recap

[weezie]

We scored 113, and played ZONE for most of the last ten minutes.

I have not seen us play zone that much over the last twenty years combined.

YES, OPK! I was flabbergasted!

And PS go Central Eagle!

[slower]

Grayson Allen - the next Hated Duke Player. No question. Checks all the boxes. I love him already (and all the rest of the Freshmen, as well).

[JetpackJesus]

Unfortunately, I didn't get to watch the game because of work and time zones. The only box score I've seen so far doesn't show minutes, and I'm very curious how many minutes MP3 played. Can anyone give an approximation or point me in the direction of a box score that includes such useful information?

[Duvall]

Unfortunately, I didn't get to watch the game because of work and time zones. The only box score I've seen so far doesn't show minutes, and I'm very curious how many minutes MP3 played. Can anyone give an approximation or point me in the direction of a box score that includes such useful information?

Stats here. (https://mobile.twitter.com/dukeblueplanet/status/533425327029370881?p=v) Plumlee played 17 minutes.

[JetpackJesus]

Stats here. (https://mobile.twitter.com/dukeblueplanet/status/533425327029370881?p=v) Plumlee played 17 minutes.

Awesome. Thank you!

[dukebluesincebirth]

I know it was Presbyterian, but wow! Weapons, weapons, and more weapons! Pick your poison.

[CDu]

Well, Duke is pretty good.

Every single guy on the team was fantastic tonight. 30 assists as a team . . . that's crazy.

Jahlil was the best guy on the floor, and looks like the second coming of Tim Duncan. He's so calm in the post and absolutely destroyed every single double team they threw at him. He's going to average something like 18 points, 10 boards, and 4 assists a game. Absolute beast.

Winslow was also magnificent. He's so hard to stop on the drive, finishes through contact, makes plays for teammates, hustles on D, and hits threes. Not sure we've had such a versatile player since Grant Hill.

Cook seems like he should have been playing shooting guard his whole career. He's a much better spot up shooter than he's ever gotten credit for. He will easily lead the team in 3s. He and Tyus were slinging the ball around and combined for 13 assists and 1 turnover . . . I like having both in the starting lineup. With those 2 and Winslow, there's basically 3 point guards on the floor who can all shoot, drive, and pass.

Sulaimon was showing some amazing body control on some of those drives, along with improved decision making. He seems to be the back up point guard, and lead ball handler on the second unit. He looked very strong on his drives to the basket.

Whoever thought Grayson Allen wasn't going to get big minutes this year is sadly mistaken. That boy can play. He looks like the team's 7th man.

Hard to draw any major conclusions from this game, but this team's full court defense is awesome. We didn't even allow a 3 until late in the 2nd half when we went zone. There's going to be some delicious, high flying fast break action this year. Loved every minute.

Plumlee for 3!!!!!

I love the enthusiasm, but Okafor isn't going to average anywhere near 4 apg. And Allen didn't look like the 7th man. 8th? Sure. But when you are the fourth or fifth guard, the minutes are going to be hard to come by once we face real competition. Allen is a talented player, but remember that he did most of his damage in extreme garbage time. I would say he is still comfortably behind Cook, Sulaimon, Winslow, and M Jones on the wing. As long as we are blowing folks out, he will play a lot. But I would reserve judgment on PT until we play a tough opponent.

With that out of the way, I thought almost everyone played really well. Tough night for Ojeleye and Jefferson (lots of rebounds between them but not really in the flow on offense and each with 4 fouls). But aside from that, everyone else seemed stellar against this completely overwhelmed foe.

Jones and Cook seem like they can work together. We appear to have plenty of shooters. Sulaimon was terrific. And Winslow and Okafor were dominant. Let's hope for more brilliance tomorrow. This was a joy to watch!

[DukeHLM'13]

Its not all that often that I can watch a game and come up with nothing to complain about, but I think that this is one of those games. Yes, it was against an inferior opponent, but, even so, that was a really impressive performance. You don't just get the 3rd largest margin of victory in school history all the time, no matter who you are playing against.

Looking forward to a fun season. Go Devils!

[Wander]

Allen is a talented player, but remember that he did most of his damage in extreme garbage time. I would say he is still comfortably behind Cook, Sulaimon, Winslow, and M Jones on the wing.

The entire game was garbage time! I wouldn't be surprised if Allen gets ahead of M Jones, Sulaimon, or Cook at some point during the season. I wouldn't be surprised if he didn't, either - I just think the ordering of those 4 guys is up in the air.

[Oriole Way]

Wow. Haven't been that impressed by a Duke team in an opening win in a long time. Likely ever in my time watching the team. 2001, 2002, 1991, 1992 - not even 1999 Duke would have eviscerated this Presbyterian team to the same degree. Those other all-time great Duke teams weren't as deep as this one is. Of course, the experience and talent that our historically great teams possessed in their respecting starting fives is a different story.

We're ridiculously deep, and Coach K did a great job giving Ojeleye, Plumlee, Jones and Allen important minutes. Not doing that has been a problem of K's in the recent past, even in blowouts against cupcake teams.

The defense was leaps and bounds improved over last season. Still early and we have yet to face a quality opponent, but the defense tonight compared to the defense in the early going last season are night and day. We have the players, athleticism, and defensive skill to pressure the ball more full court and to actually play pressure man-to-man. We haven't been able to do so - effectively, although we tried and failed for the most part - for the past 5+ seasons. The team even made a concerted effort to practice a zone in the second half, and it was more sustained and well-executed than other recent Duke teams.

Okafor and Winslow were sensational. They are so advanced as freshmen. Only Kyrie comes close to Okafor in terms of being the total package for his position on the offensive side of the ball as a freshman. I agree with the poster that said that Winslow is most versatile player Duke has had since Grant Hill. He looks like he could be Duke's best ever freshman two-way player.

This year will come down to Duke and Kentucky. Hope we can stay healthy. This Duke team will be a fun team to watch.

[Gthoma2a]

If Plumlee gets cold from the line again, he just needs to take a couple of steps back.

[jipops]

Well, Duke is pretty good.

Every single guy on the team was fantastic tonight. 30 assists as a team . . . that's crazy.

Jahlil was the best guy on the floor, and looks like the second coming of Tim Duncan. He's so calm in the post and absolutely destroyed every single double team they threw at him. He's going to average something like 18 points, 10 boards, and 4 assists a game. Absolute beast.

Winslow was also magnificent. He's so hard to stop on the drive, finishes through contact, makes plays for teammates, hustles on D, and hits threes. Not sure we've had such a versatile player since Grant Hill.

Cook seems like he should have been playing shooting guard his whole career. He's a much better spot up shooter than he's ever gotten credit for. He will easily lead the team in 3s. He and Tyus were slinging the ball around and combined for 13 assists and 1 turnover . . . I like having both in the starting lineup. With those 2 and Winslow, there's basically 3 point guards on the floor who can all shoot, drive, and pass.

Sulaimon was showing some amazing body control on some of those drives, along with improved decision making. He seems to be the back up point guard, and lead ball handler on the second unit. He looked very strong on his drives to the basket.

Whoever thought Grayson Allen wasn't going to get big minutes this year is sadly mistaken. That boy can play. He looks like the team's 7th man.

Hard to draw any major conclusions from this game, but this team's full court defense is awesome. We didn't even allow a 3 until late in the 2nd half when we went zone. There's going to be some delicious, high flying fast break action this year. Loved every minute.

Plumlee for 3!!!!!


Wow one game in and we have both the next Tim Duncan AND Grant Hill!!!?? Ok, ok, I know you didn't really say that, but those are some big names to be throwing around after game ONE. Oh and I think you're forgetting about Dunleavy, Singler, and Carrawell when it comes to versatility.

You're right we did look pretty darn good, albeit against a very bad team (321 Kenpom preseason) playing without one of its starters. But we still performed as well as anyone could possibly expect.

I'll give you this, Grayson Allen has a fine game. I love how active his hands were on defense tonight. That is what will earn him playing time. But he was facing almost no competition tonight. I'm still not convinced that he's a part of the regular rotation when January rolls around though. A lot could depend on how Matt Jones is playing. A good litmus test for your theory could be Michigan State.

I loved Amile's work on the board's tonight. He may be the consummate role guy that every winning team needs. He doesn't need the ball in his hands and hunts the boards.

Tyus showed me a lot tonight. I wasn't wowed in the last exhibition I saw but he really got the ball up the floor quick.

[arnie]

Wow. Haven't been that impressed by a Duke team in an opening win in a long time. Likely ever in my time watching the team. 2001, 2002, 1991, 1992 - not even 1999 Duke would have eviscerated this Presbyterian team to the same degree. Those other all-time great Duke teams weren't as deep as this one is. Of course, the experience and talent that our historically great teams possessed in their respecting starting fives is a different story.

We're ridiculously deep, and Coach K did a great job giving Ojeleye, Plumlee, Jones and Allen important minutes. Not doing that has been a problem of K's in the recent past, even in blowouts against cupcake teams.

The defense was leaps and bounds improved over last season. Still early and we have yet to face a quality opponent, but the defense tonight compared to the defense in the early going last season are night and day. We have the players, athleticism, and defensive skill to pressure the ball more full court and to actually play pressure man-to-man. We haven't been able to do so - effectively, although we tried and failed for the most part - for the past 5+ seasons. The team even made a concerted effort to practice a zone in the second half, and it was more sustained and well-executed than other recent Duke teams.

Okafor and Winslow were sensational. They are so advanced as freshmen. Only Kyrie comes close to Okafor in terms of being the total package for his position on the offensive side of the ball as a freshman. I agree with the poster that said that Winslow is most versatile player Duke has had since Grant Hill. He looks like he could be Duke's best ever freshman two-way player.

This year will come down to Duke and Kentucky. Hope we can stay healthy. This Duke team will be a fun team to watch.

We beat Davidson 111-77 last year in our opener. Davidson's talent is a far superior to PC's. I recall this board thought Parker/Hood and team couldn't be stopped. Think we better hold off on accolades until we play a real team.

[Oriole Way]

We beat Davidson 111-77 last year in our opener. Davidson's talent is a far superior to PC's. I recall this board thought Parker/Hood and team couldn't be stopped. Think we better hold off on accolades until we play a real team.

I don't think you fully appreciate how dominant Duke was tonight, and how rare a 69-point margin of victory is.

It wasn't hard to see that our defense last year was severely lacking. It was poor basically from start to finish, getting worse as the season went on and as the level of competition improved.

I've watched lots of the great Duke teams over the years. The kind of depth this team has is something no other Duke team can match. Only 1997-1998 comes close in terms of pure depth, and this team has more top-shelf talent.

[dukelifer]

Wow one game in and we have both the next Tim Duncan AND Grant Hill!!!?? Ok, ok, I know you didn't really say that, but those are some big names to be throwing around after game ONE. Oh and I think you're forgetting about Dunleavy, Singler, and Carrawell when it comes to versatility.

You're right we did look pretty darn good, albeit against a very bad team (321 Kenpom preseason) playing without one of its starters. But we still performed as well as anyone could possibly expect.

I'll give you this, Grayson Allen has a fine game. I love how active his hands were on defense tonight. That is what will earn him playing time. But he was facing almost no competition tonight. I'm still not convinced that he's a part of the regular rotation when January rolls around though. A lot could depend on how Matt Jones is playing. A good litmus test for your theory could be Michigan State.

I loved Amile's work on the board's tonight. He may be the consummate role guy that every winning team needs. He doesn't need the ball in his hands and hunts the boards.

Tyus showed me a lot tonight. I wasn't wowed in the last exhibition I saw but he really got the ball up the floor quick.

It was an impressive win but Duke overwhelmed an overmatched team that never had an answer. That said- there were some good things. First the D is much better. Even against a weak team- this team applied pressure and was disruptive inside and out. Offensively, Sheed played aggressively and with confidence. That was good to see. Allen can be good. While he scored in garbage time- he has a pretty good handle to drive to the hoop and get fouled. Duke will need this. There is a little JJ in that kid. Winslow is really impressive- strength and grace. He has a high ceiling. Okafor has great feet and huge hands. His patience with the ball is pretty amazing for a Freshman. T Jones has great vision. He has not shown an ability to get inside, but he does find the open guy. This team has a lot of potential. Looking forward to seeing them play against a top team and with game pressure.

[UrinalCake]

Am I crazy or were we playing a 1-3-1 zone for a few possessions in the second half? What's weird is that we had Winslow defending the point, Tyus and Cook on the wings, Okafor in the middle, and Amile on the back line. It left us very susceptible to corner threes, but against this opponent that didn't matter. I'm curious if this is something we'll ever do during the meat of the season.

About the only thing I really learned rotation-wise is that K does seem to like having Rasheed run point with the second team, as a lot of us have speculated. Having him, Matt Jones, and Grayson on the floor gives us three guys who are 6'4 - 6'5 and pretty interchangable on D, which is a really different look. It does make sense to have Rasheed with the ball in his hands whenever Oak is out, as we won't be getting any offense inside.

[arnie]

I don't think you fully appreciate how dominant Duke was tonight, and how rare a 69-point margin of victory is.

It wasn't hard to see that our defense last year was severely lacking. It was poor basically from start to finish, getting worse as the season went on and as the level of competition improved.

I've watched lots of the great Duke teams over the years. The kind of depth this team has is something no other Duke team can match. Only 1997-1998 comes close in terms of pure depth, and this team has more top-shelf talent.

Hope you're right, but I have family ties with PC and their program talent is truly bottom of the barrel. Doubt they could compete with CIAA teams. We'll know a little more after Fairfield tomorrow. Also doubt the depth will be used against better teams.

[OldPhiKap]

Am I crazy or were we playing a 1-3-1 zone for a few possessions in the second half? What's weird is that we had Winslow defending the point, Tyus and Cook on the wings, Okafor in the middle, and Amile on the back line. It left us very susceptible to corner threes, but against this opponent that didn't matter. I'm curious if this is something we'll ever do during the meat of the season.

About the only thing I really learned rotation-wise is that K does seem to like having Rasheed run point with the second team, as a lot of us have speculated. Having him, Matt Jones, and Grayson on the floor gives us three guys who are 6'4 - 6'5 and pretty interchangable on D, which is a really different look. It does make sense to have Rasheed with the ball in his hands whenever Oak is out, as we won't be getting any offense inside.

K talked about the zone and 1-3-1 in his post game PC. said he was not sure the 1-3-1 would stay except for special circumstances. Said JB would be proud that he played that much zone, they have been working on it, and that "the therapy was going well" for K to play it.

[devildeac]

Am I crazy or were we playing a 1-3-1 zone for a few possessions in the second half? What's weird is that we had Winslow defending the point, Tyus and Cook on the wings, Okafor in the middle, and Amile on the back line. It left us very susceptible to corner threes, but against this opponent that didn't matter. I'm curious if this is something we'll ever do during the meat of the season.

About the only thing I really learned rotation-wise is that K does seem to like having Rasheed run point with the second team, as a lot of us have speculated. Having him, Matt Jones, and Grayson on the floor gives us three guys who are 6'4 - 6'5 and pretty interchangable on D, which is a really different look. It does make sense to have Rasheed with the ball in his hands whenever Oak is out, as we won't be getting any offense inside.

You are not crazy. I saw mostly a 2-3 zone, starting at about the 10 minute mark of the 2nd half, but I think we used the 1-3-1 for maybe a couple possessions. If you have a 6-6 guy up top that is as athletic as Winslow, I think it can be very disruptive and make it difficult to see or throw over top of the defense. Kinda like using Lance Thomas or Amile to defend inbound passes. That's a lot of length/height.

[OldPhiKap]

You are not crazy. I saw mostly a 2-3 zone, starting at about the 10 minute mark of the 2nd half, but I think we used the 1-3-1 for maybe a couple possessions. If you have a 6-6 guy up top that is as athletic as Winslow, I think it can be very disruptive and make it difficult to see or throw over top of the defense. Kinda like using Lance Thomas or Amile to defend inbound passes. That's a lot of length/height.

K said that the key to zone is communication. I think Amile may be the reason K feels OK with some zone.

[vick]

The entire game was garbage time! I wouldn't be surprised if Allen gets ahead of M Jones, Sulaimon, or Cook at some point during the season. I wouldn't be surprised if he didn't, either - I just think the ordering of those 4 guys is up in the air.

I don't think it's impossible, but I think it would be fairly surprising if Allen is ahead of Sulaimon or Cook on a regular basis barring injury once the tougher games start. Both had their struggles last year, but Cook has been an all-ACC player. Sulaimon was the second best freshman in the entire conference two years ago. And the fourth-best freshman on this team is going to surpass them? Odds are solidly against it, in my estimation.

[devildeac]

K said that the key to zone is communication. I think Amile may be the reason K feels OK with some zone.

He has indeed praised Amile on several occasions about his on-court ability to communicate on defense. He like Tyus on offense as he can talk to the entire team as he directs the O. Same principle for Amile talking to the entire team while we are playing D.

[BD80]

K said that the key to zone is communication. I think Amile may be the reason K feels OK with some zone.

The announcers noted that the zone was in effect "calling off the dogs" out of respect for an overmatched opponent.

[devildeac]

The announcers noted that the zone was in effect "calling off the dogs" out of respect for an overmatched opponent.

Probably/likely true, but it still made it pretty tough for the Blue Hose to score.

[ACCBBallFan]

The most surprising metric is who quietly led the team in +/-

http://www.scacchoops.com/ViewHDGame.asp?hSchedule=26314&bView=0

Player MINS +/- **

Semi Ojeleye 19 40
Rasheed Sulaimon18 37
Grayson Allen 18 34
Marshall Plumlee 17 33
Jahlil Okafor * 23 32
Quinn Cook * 25 31
Matt Jones 13 29 Limited minutes due to dizzy
Justise Winslow * 20 28
Tyus Jones * 23 27
Amile Jefferson * 16 17 Only bright spot was the 10 boards
Nick Pagliuca 5 11
Sean Kelly 3 6
TEAM
Totals 200 325

Coach K said in the post game that Matt was dizzy, so he held him out even though Matt wanted to come back in.

[Newton_14]

Guys, I gotta tell you, I have been doing this for a very long time, and this team is something special. The chemistry this early is unbelievable. No long faces on the bench ever. They love each other, they love playing together, and the love passing to a teammate just as much as scoring themselves. That is beautiful to watch. The bench went absolutely nuts numerous times, most notably when Marshall drained the 3. Best Duke moment in a long time, On almost every timeout, the entire bench ran halfway out on the court to high five and bump chests with the 5 coming off the floor. Pure joy! I applaud all 10 guys for that kind of camaraderie.

The defense. Again, been doing this a very long time and this is the only time I can ever remember where an opponent went an entire half and never successfully ran a play on offense. Our defense was that brilliant and that disruptive the entire first half. I almost (but didn't) felt sorry for the Blue Hose. Yes talent wise they were inferior, but in terms of size, strength, quickness, and hops, their team was right on par with Duke. They just simply could not get into a set in that first half. Every basket was one on one playground style off broken plays. We threw all kinds of different full court presses and half court presses at them with great success. A forced 10 second call, a forced 5 second call, tons of deflections, two forced timeout calls when we had a player trapped with two defenders. It was amazing. The other amazing thing is how much better we clog things up in the halfcourt leaving no driving lanes. I know the icing is causing part of that but K has added other new wrinkles too, and it is extremely difficult to find a path to the hoop down the lane or baseline, and we trap at any an every opportunity from the baseline corners to up top. We have all said it but judging on where we are at right now in the schedule with compared to last year, the defense is miles better than last season. K ran multiple looks including man to man full court press, a couple of different variants of full court zone presses and halfcourt zone presses. Someone mentioned 10 minute of zone in the 2nd half, but actually we went to the 2-3 zone with 6.5 minutes left in the game and mixed in a 1-3-1 zone in several of those possessions and stayed in one of those 2 zones the full final 6.5 minutes of the game. Very interesting.

Offense. So different from last year. Rush the ball up the court, get a quick hitter if it is there and if not start the beautiful halfcourt offense. Jahlil makes our offense ten times more dangerous and we have 7 or 8 guys that can take full advantage of that. The spacing is so much better and I love how Jahlil is currently approaching things. He takes his time and reads the defense before deciding what he wants to do. With that he can make his move and score with ease with a full arsenal of weapons. Has the shooting touch of a guard, great hands, is a great passer. If they double him up hard, he kicks it out to a wide open shooter at the three point line, and if they single cover him then just forget it. He scores with ease. Ridiculously good and efficient. He forces nothing. There is no doubt if we force the issue he could get 25-30 on any given night, but we don't even need too due to all the many weapons around him. I have to wonder if there are more than 2 or 3 guys in the country that can defend him with any type of success.

Players:
Winslow- I have said so much on him its not much left to say. He is the real deal. Can hit the 3 and is the best driver on the ream attacking the basket and he too is virtually unstoppable once he gets to the rim. He is still showing that he can hit the 3 at a very respectable rate.

Quinn- Moving to the SG/Wing is a God send for this kid. He looks so much better and with Tyus at the point there is virtually no pressure on Quinn to run the offense. Agree with others that he will benefit the most from Jahlil on the floor and will wear teams out with his beautiful 3 Ball stroke. Also with the deep bench Quinn can go all out on defense unlike years past. His defense tonight was improved and really good.

Rasheed- Best game he has had in a DUke Uni in a very long time. Loved it. Played fast and quick but not in a hurry. DId a great job of mixing up taking it all the way to the rim himself to score on great movers while also keeping his head up and finding teammates for spot up 3s or dunks. He had some very nice play making assists where he drove, drew the defense and then dumped to Amile or Jahlil for an easy score.

Grayson- I am more impressed every time I see this kid play. Believe it or not, he might be just as good or better on defense as he is on offense. He moves his feet well, uses his body well, has good disruptive hands, blocks shots, rebound well and just understands how to play defense. Love this kid. We got a steal. So much better than his ranking. If/when K shortens the rotation he still might get squeezed just because we are so deep on the wing. He would have to pass Matt or Rasheed which would be a tall task but not impossible.

AMile- Great rebounding game, great leader, and played good defense. SOme of the foul calls were iffy. I thought he had a really solid game despite the foul trouble and not scoring a lot, but so many other kids were scoring so well we really did not need points from Amile tonight.

Tyus- Just the consummate pointguard. Sees the floor so well, sees plays developing one or two passes ahead of time and is great at hitting cutters in stride when the cut to the basket. He always seem to drive the ball to the correct position on the court to put himself in the best possible position to allow proper spacing by his teammates and then get the angle he wants to deliver a pass or set up a teammate to deliver the scoring pass after Tyus delivers the ball to him. Very quietly had like 15 points tonight in a variety of ways. Almost like a quiet assassin.



Matt- Was a little surprised he did not start given how well he had played thus far but I did note earlier that if anyone started over Matt in these first few games it would be Quinn. Matt was solid on defense and had the 4 point play with the 3 pointer and foul and drove the ball well too.

Semi- Rebounded really well, showing great strength. Played solid defense all night and looks to lead the team in charges drawn. Will likely get squeezed out if/when K shortens the rotation but is a good player and will be a solid in the rotation player before his career ends.

Marshall- Loved his energy and defense all night long and his free throw shooting is much improved. He looked really good at the line. Very solid stroke. Much better outside shooter than Mason and that was my thought before he drained the wide open three which was just awesome and brought the house down. Loved it. Very safe to have him on the floor when Jahlil is resting.

I simply cannot wait to see this team play a couple of top level teams, and play road games to see if they can perform the way we think they can. Despite how early it is and the level of competition hasn't been great, but to me this team looks to be one of the best teams K has had in a very long time. Which is saying something. They are simply going to pound non-Top 20 teams. Even on nights when the 3 ball is not falling they are going to score by Jahlil doing his thing down low and by Winslow scoring in multiple ways especially driving. IF teams focus on stopping Jahlil and Winslow, several other kids have the ability to make them pay a very large price.

For those that don't know, tonight was the second largest margin of victory ever in Cameron.

Long way to go but we got something special in this group. Grab your popcorn and enjoy the ride. Going to be a special year!

[AncientPsychicT]

We beat Davidson 111-77 last year in our opener. Davidson's talent is a far superior to PC's. I recall this board thought Parker/Hood and team couldn't be stopped. Think we better hold off on accolades until we play a real team.

And that right there is the reason why last year's team struggled. Even in that blowout win, they still did not play good defense. This year, our defense was good all night and great in stretches.

Say what you will about level of competition, but this team just laid down the third largest win in school history. I've watched both exhibitions and the opener; we are MUCH better than last year. Our performance on the defensive end is like night and day. You can hold off on your accolades if you wish, but I'm getting ready for what is shaping up to be a fantastic year for Duke basketball.

Let's go Devils!

[OldPhiKap]

The announcers noted that the zone was in effect "calling off the dogs" out of respect for an overmatched opponent.


Probably/likely true, but it still made it pretty tough for the Blue Hose to score.

K said they had been working on it. For a group as young as we have, that's more than just calling of the dogs. That's an intent to use it, even if situationally. Which is light years from pre-USA K.

[duke4ever19]

K said they had been working on it. For a group as young as we have, that's more than just calling of the dogs. That's an intent to use it, even if situationally. Which is light years from pre-USA K.

In the post-game interview, Matt Jones said that Coach K had them run zone, "to keep our legs fresh for tomorrow." He seemed to want to stop short of saying it was used to "rest and relax" (his words, not mine"), but reiterated that it indeed implemented to preserve energy so they can bring the same intensity for the next game.

Obviously, Coach K probably has more than "resting" in mind for using the zone, especially at the beginning of the season, but you never know.

[mo.st.dukie]

And that right there is the reason why last year's team struggled. Even in that blowout win, they still did not play good defense. This year, our defense was good all night and great in stretches.

Say what you will about level of competition, but this team just laid down the third largest win in school history. I've watched both exhibitions and the opener; we are MUCH better than last year. Our performance on the defensive end is like night and day. You can hold off on your accolades if you wish, but I'm getting ready for what is shaping up to be a fantastic year for Duke basketball.

Let's go Devils!

Also, Duke had 16 assists that night against Davidson, we were outrebounded 31-27, and their "big guy" Brooks ate us alive in the paint.

It's not that we destroyed Presby tonight that has everyone excited, it's the way in which we went about doing it both offensively and defensively. Last year's team never had that kind of ball movement, that kind of balance of inside and outside play, that kind of toughness and intensity on defense, or that kind of dominance in the paint on both ends of the floor regardless of the competition. In fact we struggled in the first half against a lot of the mid-majors we played most of which weren't much better than this Presby team.

[Dukehky]

The best play of the night was the left/off hand no look pass from Tyus on a break in the second half to Jah for a dunk. Nobody makes that pass. Nobody. This next statement is completely subjective, and I will probably be able to support my argument if we do well, but Tyus Jones will be this team's most important player. The dude is just perfect. Winslow looks like a 1 and done talent, which I wasn't sure of, but he is sooooo good.

[ncexnyc]

LOL, well that didn't take very long. It seems young Mr. Allen has his very own thread over at IC.

[subzero02]

Grayson will be hated more overall but there is quite a bit of appropriate swagger in a hopefully not one and done Tyus Jones as well.

[bbosbbos]

Bring home another NC, JO, JW & TJ will all go.



Grayson will be hated more overall but there is quite a bit of appropriate swagger in a hopefully not one and done Tyus Jones as well.

[Troublemaker]

K said they had been working on it. For a group as young as we have, that's more than just calling of the dogs. That's an intent to use it, even if situationally.

Agreed, and the situation could be foul trouble. Duke went into zone after Semi picked up his 4th foul (with Amile already having 4 fouls already). I think foul trouble could be the trigger for zone defense in future games.

Like you said upthread, that was perhaps the longest stretch of zone defense Coach K has ever played. I agree that it means something.

Incidentally, Semi played great defense in the zone down the stretch despite 4 fouls.

[Troublemaker]

And that right there is the reason why last year's team struggled. Even in that blowout win, they still did not play good defense. This year, our defense was good all night and great in stretches.

Say what you will about level of competition, but this team just laid down the third largest win in school history. I've watched both exhibitions and the opener; we are MUCH better than last year. Our performance on the defensive end is like night and day. You can hold off on your accolades if you wish, but I'm getting ready for what is shaping up to be a fantastic year for Duke basketball.

Let's go Devils!

I'm with you. Games against good teams will allow 100% confirmation of our current suspicions, but I have no problem with being, say, 90% confident that this is one of Coach K's best teams just based on CTC, the two exhibitions and the Presby game.

[Kedsy]

Whoever thought Grayson Allen wasn't going to get big minutes this year is sadly mistaken. That boy can play. He looks like the team's 7th man.

Grayson did look great tonight. The play of the day was his amazing steal and save around midway through the first half. He shot well, he handled well, he finished at the rim.

But 7th man? That means he's ahead of Marshall plus either Matt or Rasheed (or Quinn), and frankly I just don't see that.


I'll put some money down that Marshall will have the best three point percentage on the team at the end of the year!

Who wants in?

Marshall and Miles Plumlee have combined for a 100% shooting percentage from three-point range. Pretty amazing.


Duke started two pgs so we didn't learn much about Matt vs Rasheed as starting SG

Maybe we learned that neither of them will be our starting SG (since neither of them started at SG tonight)?

You and others have hypothesized that we simply can't have Quinn and Tyus playing together, but apparently Coach K doesn't share those qualms. And I thought they looked pretty good out there together.


The kind of depth this team has is something no other Duke team can match. Only 1997-1998 comes close in terms of pure depth, and this team has more top-shelf talent.

The 1997-98 team had five future first round picks (Brand, Battier, Avery, Langdon, and McLeod), including an overall #1 NBA draft pick, plus a future ACC player of the year and a future national defensive player of the year. You really think the current team has more "top-shelf talent" than that?

[Troublemaker]

Rasheed- Best game he has had in a DUke Uni in a very long time. Loved it. Played fast and quick but not in a hurry. DId a great job of mixing up taking it all the way to the rim himself to score on great movers while also keeping his head up and finding teammates for spot up 3s or dunks. He had some very nice play making assists where he drove, drew the defense and then dumped to Amile or Jahlil for an easy score.


I loved that Rasheed. He drove to pass except when an obvious lane to the bucket opened up. He was sooo quick on his penetration, too. If he can keep his dribble alive after penetrating and look to pass, he'll collapse defenses and create open shots. He showed good leadership, too. Once, after he kicked out to Semi who then missed an open 3, Sheed walked over and encouraged Semi, who was having a bad shooting day, to keep shooting. Next trip down the floor, Sheed penetrated again and hockey-assisted to Semi who banged home his only made three of the day.

[mr. synellinden]

The best play of the night was the left/off hand no look pass from Tyus on a break in the second half to Jah for a dunk. Nobody makes that pass. Nobody. This next statement is completely subjective, and I will probably be able to support my argument if we do well, but Tyus Jones will be this team's most important player. The dude is just perfect. Winslow looks like a 1 and done talent, which I wasn't sure of, but he is sooooo good.

I thought the best play of the night was the 2 on 0 break when Quinn gave the ball up to Tyus for a layup. I thought that one play spoke volumes about this team and it's chemistry. In another thread I commented on the importance of the four freshmen being fully accepted by the upper-classmen, and that play, along with the overall body language/bench reactions (another poster referred to that earlier in the thread) is an extremely good sign of this becoming a real TEAM.

[Kedsy]

The 1997-98 team had five future first round picks (Brand, Battier, Avery, Langdon, and McLeod), including an overall #1 NBA draft pick, plus a future ACC player of the year and a future national defensive player of the year. You really think the current team has more "top-shelf talent" than that?

To clarify, describing things in a slightly different way, that 1997-98 team had three future ACC POY, two future national POY, two future national DPOY, plus three other guys who didn't accomplish any of that but still were first round draft picks. That team had a lot of "top-shelf talent." As good as this team is, I don't think it'll come close to those accomplishments.

[Dukehky]

I thought the best play of the night was the 2 on 0 break when Quinn gave the ball up to Tyus for a layup. I thought that one play spoke volumes about this team and it's chemistry. In another thread I commented on the importance of the four freshmen being fully accepted by the upper-classmen, and that play, along with the overall body language/bench reactions (another poster referred to that earlier in the thread) is an extremely good sign of this becoming a real TEAM.

You and I have different interpretations of the word "best" in this context. I stand by my assessment of Tyus' pass to Jah as the best basketball play of the evening. I will also not read too much into one play regarding the chemistry of the team for a whole season. This team is going to go through some fires, I think they have the stones to stay together through them, but I'm gonna wait to declare this a chemically balanced team until we play someone better than Presby.

Mostly, I'm just trying to temper my expectations because I was pretty jacked up about our team tonight, but I've been jacked up before and been disappointed, and I was honestly pretty down on the team before the 2010 season and look how that turned out. So what the hell do I know?

[kAzE]

I thought the best play of the night was the 2 on 0 break when Quinn gave the ball up to Tyus for a layup. I thought that one play spoke volumes about this team and it's chemistry. In another thread I commented on the importance of the four freshmen being fully accepted by the upper-classmen, and that play, along with the overall body language/bench reactions (another poster referred to that earlier in the thread) is an extremely good sign of this becoming a real TEAM.

I disagree with both of you . . . the play of the game was the tipped pass and diving save/pass by Grayson Allen to Tyus Jones, who then effortlessly touched passed it 60 feet down the court for a dunk. That was an insane sequence.

Allen might not end up being the 7th man, but I love him already. The dude is fearless. He's so much fun to watch. I just hope he doesn't hurt himself, he's like a mini-Singler. However, he could certainly begin to steal minutes from Matt Jones. he's much more skilled offensively, and showed he's no slouch on D, either.

[kAzE]

I love the enthusiasm, but Okafor isn't going to average anywhere near 4 apg. And Allen didn't look like the 7th man. 8th? Sure. But when you are the fourth or fifth guard, the minutes are going to be hard to come by once we face real competition. Allen is a talented player, but remember that he did most of his damage in extreme garbage time. I would say he is still comfortably behind Cook, Sulaimon, Winslow, and M Jones on the wing. As long as we are blowing folks out, he will play a lot. But I would reserve judgment on PT until we play a tough opponent.

With that out of the way, I thought almost everyone played really well. Tough night for Ojeleye and Jefferson (lots of rebounds between them but not really in the flow on offense and each with 4 fouls). But aside from that, everyone else seemed stellar against this completely overwhelmed foe.

Jones and Cook seem like they can work together. We appear to have plenty of shooters. Sulaimon was terrific. And Winslow and Okafor were dominant. Let's hope for more brilliance tomorrow. This was a joy to watch!

Are you serious? He's going to get so many easy assists passing out of double teams. Every single time he got doubled, there was a wide open 3 available, and he found that guy every time with no effort at all. Okafor commands double teams. He's basically unguardable 1-on-1 in the post, and that's going to create a ton of open looks for shooters. He got 4 assists in 23 minutes tonight. I say he averages 4 on the year for sure. You're underrating his passing ability. There's a reason we're running our offense through him.

[Oriole Way]

The 1997-98 team had five future first round picks (Brand, Battier, Avery, Langdon, and McLeod), including an overall #1 NBA draft pick, plus a future ACC player of the year and a future national defensive player of the year. You really think the current team has more "top-shelf talent" than that?

Absolutely. Okafor and Winslow will be better NBA players than Brand and Battier, assuming they both stay healthy. Avery, Langdon, and McLeod all flamed out of the league quickly, and none of them justified their first round selections. This Duke team will have several late first round or second round players who will contribute to their teams (not unlike Kyle Singler).

This Duke team has up to 8 NBA prospects, with 7 being likely. It even has an outside shot of 8 NBA players if things break right for Amile Jefferson.

Okafor and Winslow are lottery picks. Jones will likely be a lottery pick after his sophomore season.

Okafor, Winslow, Tyus Jones, Matt Jones, Sulaimon, and Allen will all be NBA rotation players barring injury. Ojeleye is extremely likely to be drafted and make a D-League roster, and I like his chances of being an NBA rotation player if he can tighten up his handles and improve his defense. NBA GM's will salivate over Semi's athleticism and ability to shoot from the perimeter at his size.

In my estimation, that's 7 likely NBA players. Amile has a shot to be drafted - or at least get summer league invites, like Lance Thomas - if he can develop a jumper and add some bulk without sacrificing too much quickness. His rebounding ability is NBA-caliber. And Marshall has a shot just by nature of being 7-feet tall. I doubt he plays in the NBA, but I could see him getting a Summer League invitation.

Some people might doubt Matt Jones and Grayson Allen getting drafted, but I have little doubt that they will. Jones has the size, defensive ability, and potential to be a knock-down 3-point shooter that gets players drafted and in NBA rotations. Allen has NBA athleticism, and he also has the shooting ability and ball-handling ability to play in the NBA. I think he'll be better at the NBA level than Jimmer Fredette has been, even though he won't have the same kind of college career.

These Duke players will have a much longer shelf-life in the NBA than the 1998-1999 team did. And Okafor has a chance to be a perennial All-Star. Brand was a 2-time All-Star and double-double machine for several seasons, but ultimately he was undersized. He really got the most out of his ability. But Okafor has a chance to be a dominant center with the best post skills and footwork since Tim Duncan. He won't be as good as Anthony Davis, but he'll be a great player. The scouting reports are accurate, and I hope he stays healthy so we get to see him flourish in the NBA.

[Duke3517]

I wouldn't get too excited yet...

They played a team with only 6 wins last season. Presbyterian was clearly overmatched and smothered. They had no answer for the quickness and penetration of Jones, Cook, Sulamoin, and Winslow. No guy big enough to slow down Okafor inside. Also, they could not handle Duke's pressure D. This led to Duke's easy night. I will hold off judgment until they play a legit top 25 team later in the year.

But they have a lot of talent that is for sure. They have talent even beyond the one and done's. Grayson Allen is going to be a really good player for Duke not only this season but for years to come. I'm really excited about him and his contribution to the program in the coming years.

[davekay1971]

To clarify, describing things in a slightly different way, that 1997-98 team had three future ACC POY, two future national POY, two future national DPOY, plus three other guys who didn't accomplish any of that but still were first round draft picks. That team had a lot of "top-shelf talent." As good as this team is, I don't think it'll come close to those accomplishments.

In fairness, it's tough to anticipate the accomplishments this group of freshmen might achieve, in comparison to what a young talented group accomplished 17 years ago. Simply put, they won't face the same competition. In the late 1990s, players stuck around longer, making it tough for a very young, talented team to succeed. On the other hand, in 2014, a group of awesomely talented freshmen is mainly going to run into opposing teams of awesomely talented freshmen and/or less talented upperclassmen. Awesomely talented upperclassmen might actually be around in 1997-1998...in 2014 those awesomely talented upperclassmen are working through their initial NBA contract.

After one home game against an overmatched opponent, I'm not going to go crazy with expectations. This team is young and it's going to go through ups and downs and it's going to have to grow to win in March and (hopefully) April. But they certainly have talent, and, with the current state of college basketball, they're going to be matching their young talent against other similarly young talent, not against the experienced talent of the 90s.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Absolutely. Okafor and Winslow will be better NBA players than Brand and Battier, assuming they both stay healthy. Avery, Langdon, and McLeod all flamed out of the league quickly, and none of them justified their first round selections. This Duke team will have several late first round or second round players who will contribute to their teams (not unlike Kyle Singler).

This Duke team has up to 8 NBA prospects, with 7 being likely. It even has an outside shot of 8 NBA players if things break right for Amile Jefferson.

Okafor and Winslow are lottery picks. Jones will likely be a lottery pick after his sophomore season.

Okafor, Winslow, Tyus Jones, Matt Jones, Sulaimon, and Allen will all be NBA rotation players barring injury. Ojeleye is extremely likely to be drafted and make a D-League roster, and I like his chances of being an NBA rotation player if he can tighten up his handles and improve his defense. NBA GM's will salivate over Semi's athleticism and ability to shoot from the perimeter at his size.

In my estimation, that's 7 likely NBA players. Amile has a shot to be drafted - or at least get summer league invites, like Lance Thomas - if he can develop a jumper and add some bulk without sacrificing too much quickness. His rebounding ability is NBA-caliber. And Marshall has a shot just by nature of being 7-feet tall. I doubt he plays in the NBA, but I could see him getting a Summer League invitation.

Some people might doubt Matt Jones and Grayson Allen getting drafted, but I have little doubt that they will. Jones has the size, defensive ability, and potential to be a knock-down 3-point shooter that gets players drafted and in NBA rotations. Allen has NBA athleticism, and he also has the shooting ability and ball-handling ability to play in the NBA. I think he'll be better at the NBA level than Jimmer Fredette has been, even though he won't have the same kind of college career.

These Duke players will have a much longer shelf-life in the NBA than the 1998-1999 team did. And Okafor has a chance to be a perennial All-Star. Brand was a 2-time All-Star and double-double machine for several seasons, but ultimately he was undersized. He really got the most out of his ability. But Okafor has a chance to be a dominant center with the best post skills and footwork since Tim Duncan. He won't be as good as Anthony Davis, but he'll be a great player. The scouting reports are accurate, and I hope he stays healthy so we get to see him flourish in the NBA.

So, my only question to you is which of our current players will eventually wear the mantle of Best Duke Player Ever? Or is it stil Jabari Parker?

Team looked great last night. Like, really good, fun to watch, talented, selfless, etc.

Let's keep it up for a few weeks before we start making overreaching statements about this team's place in history.

[arnie]

So, my only question to you is which of our current players will eventually wear the mantle of Best Duke Player Ever? Or is it stil Jabari Parker?

Team looked great last night. Like, really good, fun to watch, talented, selfless, etc.

Let's keep it up for a few weeks before we start making overreaching statements about this team's place in history.

Thanks for your level of sanity, we all should wait at least another week before comparing this team to UCLA of 1964-1975.

[striker219]

Thanks for your level of sanity, we all should wait at least another week before comparing this team to UCLA of 1964-1975.

Please. We would destroy any of those teams. Some of those guys are pushing 70 at this point, it's probably safe to assume that they've lost a step or two.

[arnie]

Please. We would destroy any of those teams. Some of those guys are pushing 70 at this point, it's probably safe to assume that they've lost a step or two.

I'd still take Jabbar, not so sure about Walton's knees and feet.

[CDu]

Are you serious? He's going to get so many easy assists passing out of double teams. Every single time he got doubled, there was a wide open 3 available, and he found that guy every time with no effort at all. Okafor commands double teams. He's basically unguardable 1-on-1 in the post, and that's going to create a ton of open looks for shooters. He got 4 assists in 23 minutes tonight. I say he averages 4 on the year for sure. You're underrating his passing ability. There's a reason we're running our offense through him.

Yes, I am serious. No Duke big man has averaged 4 assists per game. Not even the greatest passing big we have had in McRoberts. Most guards don't average 4 assists.

And I wouldn't use last night as evidence to suggest he will average 4 per game. Getting just 4 in 23 minutes (not far off what his season average will be for minutes) in a game where we scored over 110 and had 30 team assists doesn't portend big assist totals when the defenses get tougher.

Okafor is a very solid passer. I just think you are underestimating how hard it is to average 4 assists and falling prey to overreaction to a performance against a vastly overmatched foe.

[Billy Dat]

As someone who declared that we had the talent to win the title after watching us dribble-drive Davidson into submission in last year's opener, I will try and restrain myself a bit more. It aint easy.

Some hoops scribes use the term "gravity" to describe the attention a player garners from the defense. Jah has more gravity than any big man we've had in eons and I am incredibly impressed by his hands, his poise and his passing. He created so many open 3s for his teammates. So, we will need to knock them down, but it looks like most of these guys can hit them. It also sets up the drive off those kicks and we were good at both finishing and or finding Okafor when the defense rotates to cover the drive. His gravity changes everything.

The defense is also looking improved. I want to gush about it but this electric collar keeps shocking me into caution.

More games! More games! More games!

[NYBri]

I disagree with both of you . . . the play of the game was the tipped pass and diving save/pass by Grayson Allen to Tyus Jones, who then effortlessly touched passed it 60 feet down the court for a dunk. That was an insane sequence.

That was the play!

Place in history, greatest ever, deepest team? At this point, all I know is that, as a fan, this is going to be an incredibly fun season. Most fun in a while. Love them as players and as a team.

[Clay Feet POF]

The best play of the night was the left/off hand no look pass from Tyus on a break in the second half to Jah for a dunk. Nobody makes that pass. Nobody. This next statement is completely subjective, and I will probably be able to support my argument if we do well, but Tyus Jones will be this team's most important player. The dude is just perfect. .

Absolutely 100%

[Troublemaker]

Oriole Way, I've definitely been one of the "let your freak flag fly" writers on this board with regards to having enthusiasm for this team as opposed to the restrained, sandbaggery approach that other posters have taken.

But man, your last post comparing this team's NBA prospects to '98's was insane, friend.

Just one example. I freaking love Matt Jones but there's no way you can say with such confidence that he's an "NBA rotation player." To be an NBA rotation player, he would have to make his living as a 3-and-D player. And his 3 is very questionable at this point. His shotput shot seems to have just enough range right now to be effective in college. But I suspect moving back three feet to the NBA line is going to be trouble for him, as is his low release point. He might be able to make the adjustment, but he might not. I'll sure as heck be rooting for him.

And that's just one example. There were about 5 more statements you made that were simply way too optimistic. Winslow is for sure going to have a better career than Battier? Slow your roll here.

[-jk]

Yes, I am serious. No Duke big man has averaged 4 assists per game. Not even the greatest passing big we have had in McRoberts. Most guards don't average 4 assists.

...

Danny Ferry (http://goduke.statsgeek.com/basketball-m/players/statlines.php?playerid=135) begs to differ: 3 seasons at 4 or more APG. (Unless you're going to argue 6-10 isn't a "big man".)

-jk

[sagegrouse]

I disagree with both of you . . . the play of the game was the tipped pass and diving save/pass by Grayson Allen to Tyus Jones, who then effortlessly touched passed it 60 feet down the court for a dunk. That was an insane sequence.

Allen might not end up being the 7th man, but I love him already. The dude is fearless. He's so much fun to watch. I just hope he doesn't hurt himself, he's like a mini-Singler. However, he could certainly begin to steal minutes from Matt Jones. he's much more skilled offensively, and showed he's no slouch on D, either.

Did I hear Doris Burke call our man "Alan Grayson," the name of the flamboyant Florida Congressman? Well, join the club, DB.

[slower]

LOL, well that didn't take very long. It seems young Mr. Allen has his very own thread over at IC.

That's been in the works for a while. Grayson will be the new Paulus/JJ/Wojo/Laettner, for the haters. Grantland's Mark Titus already sounded off about Grayson last year. But as somebody pointed out in an earlier thread, he seems to have a demeanor more similar to Singler's silent warrior than to Wojo's demonstrative floor-slapper.

[luvdahops]

Danny Ferry (http://goduke.statsgeek.com/basketball-m/players/statlines.php?playerid=135) begs to differ: 3 seasons at 4 or more APG. (Unless you're going to argue 6-10 isn't a "big man".)

-jk

Ferry and McRoberts are both 6-10, but neither was a true low post, back to the basket type like Jahlil. It is very hard to consistently get a lot of assists out of that spot, even if you are being double and triple teamed regularly. Unless they start keeping stats like in hockey, where the guy who passes to the guy who passes to the guy who scores also gets credit for an assist.

[BD80]

... Winslow looks like a 1 and done talent, which I wasn't sure of, but he is sooooo good.


... Okafor and Winslow will be better NBA players than Brand and Battier, ...

... Okafor and Winslow are lottery picks. ...

Someone will (wisely) pick Winslow, but what is his NBA position? As a 2, he isn't yet the shooter he will be. He will struggle defending NBA 3s. Not sure he is sure fire gonner after 1 year. Which is what Ingram may be waiting to determine.


I'd still take Jabbar, not so sure about Walton's knees and feet.

I'll bet Walton wouldn't pass the drug test

[-jk]

Ferry and McRoberts are both 6-10, but neither was a true low post, back to the basket type like Jahlil. It is very hard to consistently get a lot of assists out of that spot, even if you are being double and triple teamed regularly. Unless they start keeping stats like in hockey, where the guy who passes to the guy who passes to the guy who scores also gets credit for an assist.

Well sure, back to the basket bigs tend not to have many assists, but the original assertion was that "No Duke big man has averaged 4 assists per game. Not even the greatest passing big we have had in McRoberts." If McBobs is a big, so is Ferry. And Ferry certainly got 4 APG most of his career.

-jk

[gw67]

I've been a Duke basketball fan since the early 60's and, like most Blue Devil fans, I was very impressed with last night's performance and the potential of this year's team. Unlike some, I could care less about the NBA prospects of the players and am interested in this year's college season. The team should be fun to watch but the keys to success will be playing together as a team and having the players who can make a big play or shot when it counts.

I liked the play of the four freshmen albeit against very weak competition. It will be fun seeing them develop during the year. It's just one game but I like the comparison of Okafor and Gminski.

gw67

[Troublemaker]

Someone will (wisely) pick Winslow, but what is his NBA position? As a 2, he isn't yet the shooter he will be. He will struggle defending NBA 3s. Not sure he is sure fire gonner after 1 year.


In my mind, Justise is about as gone as Jahlil. I think scouting departments are in love with him having the ability to shoot threes at a decent percentage now, given all his other strengths. I wonder how much credit Duke gets for "shot doctoring" him over the summer. Anyway, with everything else Winslow brings to the table --defense, ball-handling, playmaking, slashing and finishing, overall athleticism -- the ability to hit the three makes him a lottery pick, imo. Our two best players are 1-and-done. Props to you for being a big believer in him this offseason, btw.

[CDu]

Well sure, back to the basket bigs tend not to have many assists, but the original assertion was that "No Duke big man has averaged 4 assists per game. Not even the greatest passing big we have had in McRoberts." If McBobs is a big, so is Ferry. And Ferry certainly got 4 APG most of his career.

-jk

Point taken, although I don't think that Ferry's stats invalidate the argument that Okafor won't average 4 apg (which was the primary assertion of my post). Even if Okafor averages 33 mpg like Ferry (which he won't), Okafor isn't going to average 4 apg. As a passer, he is no Ferry and no McRoberts.

[Oriole Way]

Someone will (wisely) pick Winslow, but what is his NBA position? As a 2, he isn't yet the shooter he will be. He will struggle defending NBA 3s. Not sure he is sure fire gonner after 1 year. Which is what Ingram may be waiting to determine.


Tons of people doubted Shane Battier's NBA prospects. Winslow has a comparable floor and a much higher ceiling than Battier did.

Battier was an extremely valuable role player towards the end of his career, and he started out his career as a valuable, high-usage starter who provided excellent defense and was a solid complimentary scorer. Winslow has the athleticism and talent to be a lot more than Battier was. Is it easier said than done to have a career like Battier's? Absolutely. Do I feel comfortable saying that Winslow's talent will translate well to the NBA to where he'll be an NBA starter? I do.

Winslow could wind up staying two years. But he's going to be a high lottery pick no matter when he enters the draft (again, barring injury).

Winslow will be able to guard 2's and 3's in the NBA. I think he will be a 2; if he improves his jumper he could be a serious mismatch for defenders as a 2. But he has the ability to be a 3 in the NBA. His size and athleticism are NBA quality.

[Oriole Way]

Oriole Way, I've definitely been one of the "let your freak flag fly" writers on this board with regards to having enthusiasm for this team as opposed to the restrained, sandbaggery approach that other posters have taken.

But man, your last post comparing this team's NBA prospects to '98's was insane, friend.

Just one example. I freaking love Matt Jones but there's no way you can say with such confidence that he's an "NBA rotation player." To be an NBA rotation player, he would have to make his living as a 3-and-D player. And his 3 is very questionable at this point. His shotput shot seems to have just enough range right now to be effective in college. But I suspect moving back three feet to the NBA line is going to be trouble for him, as is his low release point. He might be able to make the adjustment, but he might not. I'll sure as heck be rooting for him.

And that's just one example. There were about 5 more statements you made that were simply way too optimistic. Winslow is for sure going to have a better career than Battier? Slow your roll here.

Let's see what happens after Matt's senior year. Feel free to say that you think he'll be playing in Europe after he's done at Duke. But please don't tell me not to offer my honest opinion just because it's "too early". I've been watching college and NBA basketball closely for more than a decade, and I am confident in my evaluations. I don't get everything right, but I enjoy sharing my opinions and debating them.

Matt Jones has a combination of size and defensive ability that will land him a spot on an NBA roster. I love his chances with three more full seasons to improve his jumper. And I hated his low release point and slow release last year. The fact his jumper is already vastly improved bodes extremely well for his chances. I am very high on him playing in the NBA.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Let's see what happens after Matt's senior year. Feel free to say that you think he'll be playing in Europe after he's done at Duke. But please don't tell me not to offer my honest opinion just because it's "too early". I've been watching college and NBA basketball closely for more than a decade, and I am confident in my evaluations. I don't get everything right, but I enjoy sharing my opinions and debating them.

Matt Jones has a combination of size and defensive ability that will land him a spot on an NBA roster. I love his chances with three more full seasons to improve his jumper. And I hated his low release point and slow release last year. The fact his jumper is already vastly improved bodes extremely well for his chances. I am very high on him playing in the NBA.

Sorry, it is too early. He played in garbage time last year, and had a solid game last night against literally one of the worst teams in the nation.

Our team looks really good - possibly historically great. But, it is too early to make even an attempt at determining that we are world-beaters or that we have the NBA talent of some of our best teams in history.

"Sharing you opinions" is encouraged on this board and provides for great discussion. Knee-jerk reactions lead to hubris and/or disappointment.

[DukieInBrasil]

Absolutely. Okafor and Winslow will be better NBA players than Brand and Battier, assuming they both stay healthy. Avery, Langdon, and McLeod all flamed out of the league quickly, and none of them justified their first round selections. This Duke team will have several late first round or second round players who will contribute to their teams (not unlike Kyle Singler).

This Duke team has up to 8 NBA prospects, with 7 being likely. It even has an outside shot of 8 NBA players if things break right for Amile Jefferson.

Okafor and Winslow are lottery picks. Jones will likely be a lottery pick after his sophomore season.

Okafor, Winslow, Tyus Jones, Matt Jones, Sulaimon, and Allen will all be NBA rotation players barring injury. Ojeleye is extremely likely to be drafted and make a D-League roster, and I like his chances of being an NBA rotation player if he can tighten up his handles and improve his defense. NBA GM's will salivate over Semi's athleticism and ability to shoot from the perimeter at his size.

In my estimation, that's 7 likely NBA players. Amile has a shot to be drafted - or at least get summer league invites, like Lance Thomas - if he can develop a jumper and add some bulk without sacrificing too much quickness. His rebounding ability is NBA-caliber. And Marshall has a shot just by nature of being 7-feet tall. I doubt he plays in the NBA, but I could see him getting a Summer League invitation.

Some people might doubt Matt Jones and Grayson Allen getting drafted, but I have little doubt that they will. Jones has the size, defensive ability, and potential to be a knock-down 3-point shooter that gets players drafted and in NBA rotations. Allen has NBA athleticism, and he also has the shooting ability and ball-handling ability to play in the NBA. I think he'll be better at the NBA level than Jimmer Fredette has been, even though he won't have the same kind of college career.

These Duke players will have a much longer shelf-life in the NBA than the 1998-1999 team did. And Okafor has a chance to be a perennial All-Star. Brand was a 2-time All-Star and double-double machine for several seasons, but ultimately he was undersized. He really got the most out of his ability. But Okafor has a chance to be a dominant center with the best post skills and footwork since Tim Duncan. He won't be as good as Anthony Davis, but he'll be a great player. The scouting reports are accurate, and I hope he stays healthy so we get to see him flourish in the NBA.

I do not agree with your evaluations of Duke's NBA talent. Brand was an All-Star and All-NBA, and Okafor may be that good too, but it's hard to see how he'll be BETTER than that, plus Brand ruptured his Achilles right during his prime and hasn't been as effective since, so he may have continued to be All-NBA level player. Battier has been a total winner everywhere he's played, so Winslow may put up better stats, but it's a stretch that it's known he'll be a better player. Avery flamed out for sure, but Langdon's injuries kept him from sticking in the league for long. McLeod was also a solid NBA player until a severe injury (Achilles? ACL?) cut his career short. So injuries are a big reason why you might not think those guys were all that great.
I like and share your enthusiasm about the rest of the players on this year's roster, but it is far from certain that Matt Jones, Sulaimon, Allen or Jefferson will A) make the NBA or B) make much of an impact once there. If LT can carve out a role, then Jefferson sure can. Sulaimon has the tools but hasn't shown an NBA-level game yet. Jones and Allen just haven't shown enough yet to warrant that prediction. In fact, MP3 has as much of a chance as those guys, and you didn't single him out, you can't teach 7'0", and he has a great motor.
I like to think that all Duke players always have a chance to make the Show, until they definitively show they don't have what it takes (think Josh Hairston), but i've also learned that NCAA skillz do not necessarily match what the NBA is looking for.

[mo.st.dukie]

If you had told me during the 2010 season that for the 14-15 NBA season all of Miles, Ryan, Andre, and Lance would be on NBA rosters while Jon and Nolan would not, I would not have believed you. I never thought at any point in their careers that Andre and Lance would even get a look by the NBA. In his junior and senior season I started to believe Miles would get a shot because of his size and athleticism but I never thought he would go in the 1st Round and certainly never thought he'd be a starter. Ryan had a less than stellar freshman season and for much of his career looked like he would be a perfect player for a pro team overseas and that's where most people thought he would be but with his size and skill set he can make it in the NBA. Heck, there were plenty of people who even doubted whether Singler could make it in the NBA. And then reaching back further, everybody doubted J.J. Redick as an NBA player. I think a lot of people think you have to be both an elite athlete and a great player who puts up big numbers in college to make the NBA which isn't the case at all. Just because Matt and Amile may never put up huge numbers in college or even be All-ACC doesn't mean they can't make it in the NBA. NBA teams value role players and guys who have high skill levels. Battier never put up huge numbers in the NBA but was highly valuable and had a long successful career as a role player, most NBA players are role players.

I think right now Jahlil and Justise are almost certain to have long NBA careers barring injuries. They are physically built for the NBA and have the skillset. Next likely IMO would be Rasheed and Tyus, they'll get looks but who knows if they'll stick. I think all of Amile, Grayson, and Matt have the potential to be NBA role/bench players after 4 years in college. That's 7 of our 10 scholarship players, I think it's unlikely Semi, Marshall, and Quinn play in the NBA but you never know.

[77devil]

With K's preference for senior leadership, and based on what I've read about Quinn taking on the responsibility, I expect him to get the nod and stay there unless he plays himself out of the starting lineup(which I don't expect).

Glad to see Quinn start as I thought he would. With a team that starts three freshman, Coach K wants his senior captain on the floor.

[dukelifer]

If you had told me during the 2010 season that for the 14-15 NBA season all of Miles, Ryan, Andre, and Lance would be on NBA rosters while Jon and Nolan would not, I would not have believed you. I never thought at any point in their careers that Andre and Lance would even get a look by the NBA. In his junior and senior season I started to believe Miles would get a shot because of his size and athleticism but I never thought he would go in the 1st Round and certainly never thought he'd be a starter. Ryan had a less than stellar freshman season and for much of his career looked like he would be a perfect player for a pro team overseas and that's where most people thought he would be but with his size and skill set he can make it in the NBA. Heck, there were plenty of people who even doubted whether Singler could make it in the NBA. And then reaching back further, everybody doubted J.J. Redick as an NBA player. I think a lot of people think you have to be both an elite athlete and a great player who puts up big numbers in college to make the NBA which isn't the case at all. Just because Matt and Amile may never put up huge numbers in college or even be All-ACC doesn't mean they can't make it in the NBA. NBA teams value role players and guys who have high skill levels. Battier never put up huge numbers in the NBA but was highly valuable and had a long successful career as a role player, most NBA players are role players.

I think right now Jahlil and Justise are almost certain to have long NBA careers barring injuries. They are physically built for the NBA and have the skillset. Next likely IMO would be Rasheed and Tyus, they'll get looks but who knows if they'll stick. I think all of Amile, Grayson, and Matt have the potential to be NBA role/bench players after 4 years in college. That's 7 of our 10 scholarship players, I think it's unlikely Semi, Marshall, and Quinn play in the NBA but you never know.
With Marshall's 3 pt shooting prowess and size- he is a lock. Seriously, he could make it. The NBA is a different game. It could all begin to click. He is a very big guy.

[Potato Head]

I think right now Jahlil and Justise are almost certain to have long NBA careers barring injuries. They are physically built for the NBA and have the skillset. Next likely IMO would be Rasheed and Tyus, they'll get looks but who knows if they'll stick. I think all of Amile, Grayson, and Matt have the potential to be NBA role/bench players after 4 years in college. That's 7 of our 10 scholarship players, I think it's unlikely Semi, Marshall, and Quinn play in the NBA but you never know.

I'd switch Rasheed and Grayson in your predictions, but otherwise I think that's where I'm at, too.

[gurufrisbee]

It's funny, but while they are still at Duke, I really don't care at all about guy's NBA potential or lack thereof. I care about their ability to be great college players. I loved seeing six guys all play like great college players last night and a couple more who played really well in smaller roles, too.

[Oriole Way]

I do not agree with your evaluations of Duke's NBA talent. Brand was an All-Star and All-NBA, and Okafor may be that good too, but it's hard to see how he'll be BETTER than that, plus Brand ruptured his Achilles right during his prime and hasn't been as effective since, so he may have continued to be All-NBA level player. Battier has been a total winner everywhere he's played, so Winslow may put up better stats, but it's a stretch that it's known he'll be a better player. Avery flamed out for sure, but Langdon's injuries kept him from sticking in the league for long. McLeod was also a solid NBA player until a severe injury (Achilles? ACL?) cut his career short. So injuries are a big reason why you might not think those guys were all that great.
I like and share your enthusiasm about the rest of the players on this year's roster, but it is far from certain that Matt Jones, Sulaimon, Allen or Jefferson will A) make the NBA or B) make much of an impact once there. If LT can carve out a role, then Jefferson sure can. Sulaimon has the tools but hasn't shown an NBA-level game yet. Jones and Allen just haven't shown enough yet to warrant that prediction. In fact, MP3 has as much of a chance as those guys, and you didn't single him out, you can't teach 7'0", and he has a great motor.
I like to think that all Duke players always have a chance to make the Show, until they definitively show they don't have what it takes (think Josh Hairston), but i've also learned that NCAA skillz do not necessarily match what the NBA is looking for.

I did single Plumlee out. I basically said the exact same thing you just did. 7-footers are at a premium in the NBA.

Sulaimon is a lock to get drafted (barring serious injury) thanks to his size and ability, and his potential. He's got more tools and NBA size/athleticism than either Nolan Smith or Daniel Ewing, the two closest Duke comps to Rasheed. Both Smith and Ewing were drafted, and Ewing played a couple of seasons in the league. Sulaimon's NBA career should be longer and more productive than Ewing's.

You are really underestimating size and skill with regards to Duke's players. Lance Thomas and Andre Dawkins are good examples of size and skills getting them invites to NBA summer leagues. With Thomas, it was his defensive skill. With Dawkins, it was his size and ability to shoot the 3. Matt Jones has great size for his position, and he has the ability to be a defensive specialist who can knock down 3-pointers. That combination is coveted in the NBA for rotation depth.

Matt Jones is much further from a lock compared to the top 5 players I mentioned. But I think he'll wind up playing in the NBA, and I think he'll get drafted in the second round after his senior season.

Ojeleye I actually think is more likely to be drafted than Jones. With him, the size/athleticism combo will make him extremely attractive to NBA GM's. His ability to shoot from the perimeter puts him over the top, and makes him very likely to be drafted and/or make an NBA roster.

Allen to me is a no-brainer first rounder because of his combination of size, athletic ability, shooting ability, and ball-handling ability. I wouldn't be surprised if NBA front offices regard him more highly than J.J. Redick as an NBA prospect (at the time J.J. was drafted) by the time Allen leaves Duke as a senior.

[DukieInBrasil]

I did single Plumlee out. I basically said the exact same thing you just did. 7-footers are at a premium in the NBA.

Sulaimon is a lock to get drafted (barring serious injury) thanks to his size and ability, and his potential. He's got more tools and NBA size/athleticism than either Nolan Smith or Daniel Ewing, the two closest Duke comps to Rasheed. Both Smith and Ewing were drafted, and Ewing played a couple of seasons in the league. Sulaimon's NBA career should be longer and more productive than Ewing's.

You are really underestimating size and skill with regards to Duke's players. Lance Thomas and Andre Dawkins are good examples of size and skills getting them invites to NBA summer leagues. With Thomas, it was his defensive skill. With Dawkins, it was his size and ability to shoot the 3. Matt Jones has great size for his position, and he has the ability to be a defensive specialist who can knock down 3-pointers. That combination is coveted in the NBA for rotation depth.



I did not doubt LT's chances of getting in the NBA when his Sr. season was, unlike some.
Sulaimon is far from a lock, with how he has played so far. So while he may have the talent to play in the NBA, on this we agree, he has to actually show that he can play to that talent level. Then he'll get drafted, but not with what we've seen so far. Both Ewing and Smith played at much (and in Smith's case much, much) higher levels than Sulaimon has so far.
Matt Jones has hit a total of 5 3FGs in his college career, and you're ready to say he is gonna be an NBA quality 3FG shooter?

Lots of people here were wondering what we were gonna do for a PG after Quinn's So. year, a few stellar games into his So. season, so sure were they that he was a certain 1st rounder.
Several people were wondering what we were gonna do without Sheed after his Fr. season, so certain were they that he was gonna get drafted.
Alex Murphy was gonna blow it up and turns heads and get drafted (tho' most likely not after just his So. season).
I point these players out simply to show that it takes a lot more than talented players playing well against an overmatched opponent for me to take such projections seriously.
I love your enthusiasm about Duke's players, and i agree if many things break their way, and the results match the talent, all the guys you mentioned could make the Show.

[Des Esseintes]

I did single Plumlee out. I basically said the exact same thing you just did. 7-footers are at a premium in the NBA.

Sulaimon is a lock to get drafted (barring serious injury) thanks to his size and ability, and his potential. He's got more tools and NBA size/athleticism than either Nolan Smith or Daniel Ewing, the two closest Duke comps to Rasheed. Both Smith and Ewing were drafted, and Ewing played a couple of seasons in the league. Sulaimon's NBA career should be longer and more productive than Ewing's.

You are really underestimating size and skill with regards to Duke's players. Lance Thomas and Andre Dawkins are good examples of size and skills getting them invites to NBA summer leagues. With Thomas, it was his defensive skill. With Dawkins, it was his size and ability to shoot the 3. Matt Jones has great size for his position, and he has the ability to be a defensive specialist who can knock down 3-pointers. That combination is coveted in the NBA for rotation depth.

Matt Jones is much further from a lock compared to the top 5 players I mentioned. But I think he'll wind up playing in the NBA, and I think he'll get drafted in the second round after his senior season.

Ojeleye I actually think is more likely to be drafted than Jones. With him, the size/athleticism combo will make him extremely attractive to NBA GM's. His ability to shoot from the perimeter puts him over the top, and makes him very likely to be drafted and/or make an NBA roster.

Allen to me is a no-brainer first rounder because of his combination of size, athletic ability, shooting ability, and ball-handling ability. I wouldn't be surprised if NBA front offices regard him more highly than J.J. Redick as an NBA prospect (at the time J.J. was drafted) by the time Allen leaves Duke as a senior.
The problem with this sort of analysis is that on one side we have projection and on the other we have the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune, i.e. what happens in real life. You are confident, for example, that Winslow will outpace Battier on his career. But Battier had a higher incoming recruiting rank than Winslow has, and he went out a top five draft pick. Which is to say that the best info available thought Battier a stronger prospect his senior hs year than it thinks Winslow is this year, and Winslow will have to be drafted very high indeed to be thought more highly of by the GMs who do the drafting. We *know* all the limits of the guys who've come before. We don't know the limits of the present guys. Comparing the two populations cannot mean using opportunistic scenarios for the present guys. You have to assume attention due to injury, failure to develop, etc. among the ranks in places. With a data set equaling, uh, 1, I am not close to saying this year out-talents 97-98.

[Kedsy]

The problem with this sort of analysis is that on one side we have projection and on the other we have the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune, i.e. what happens in real life. You are confident, for example, that Winslow will outpace Battier on his career. But Battier had a higher incoming recruiting rank than Winslow has, and he went out a top five draft pick. Which is to say that the best info available thought Battier a stronger prospect his senior hs year than it thinks Winslow is this year, and Winslow will have to be drafted very high indeed to be thought more highly of by the GMs who do the drafting. We *know* all the limits of the guys who've come before. We don't know the limits of the present guys. Comparing the two populations cannot mean using opportunistic scenarios for the present guys. You have to assume attention due to injury, failure to develop, etc. among the ranks in places. With a data set equaling, uh, 1, I am not close to saying this year out-talents 97-98.

Well, Battier was selected 6th in the 2001 NBA Draft, but other than that I agree with you. Battier was a top 10 prospect and high school national player of the year, was a top 6 draft pick and college national player of the year, and was a starter in the NBA for more than 10 years. It's crazy to say with any degree of certainty that Justise Winslow will be better or has a "higher ceiling" or anything else like that, especially since NBA types have consistently stated Shane's value was far greater than his statistical profile.

Similarly, Elton Brand was national player of the year and the #1 pick in the NBA draft, before becoming an NBA All Star. Jahlil Okafor may indeed have a better NBA career than Brand has had for the past 15 years, but it's far from a lock. He may not even equal any of those achievements.

Moreover, the original statement by Oriole Way is that this team has "more top-shelf talent" than the 1997-98 team. Obviously reasonable minds can differ on the definition of "top shelf talent," but no matter the definition, it's hard to see how the current team can quantitatively have more of it than the 1997-98 team.

Finally, I agree with you about real life vs. projection. The 1997-98 team had "only" five NBA draft picks, but can anyone really say with a straight face that Matt Jones has a better chance of making the NBA than the 2000 ACC player of the year Chris Carrawell (who was a sophomore in 1998)? Or that Grayson Allen and Semi Ojeleye have better chances than (sophomore) Nate James and (sophomore) Mike Chappell? Or that Marshall Plumlee has a better chance than (junior) Taymon Domzalski and (freshman and former top recruit) Chris Burgess? Maybe this year's guys will make it, maybe they won't, but I'm sure a lot of people back in the day thought a bunch of 1998's players had enough skills and athleticism to make it by the time they graduated.

[Oriole Way]

I did not doubt LT's chances of getting in the NBA when his Sr. season was, unlike some.
Sulaimon is far from a lock, with how he has played so far. So while he may have the talent to play in the NBA, on this we agree, he has to actually show that he can play to that talent level. Then he'll get drafted, but not with what we've seen so far. Both Ewing and Smith played at much (and in Smith's case much, much) higher levels than Sulaimon has so far.
Matt Jones has hit a total of 5 3FGs in his college career, and you're ready to say he is gonna be an NBA quality 3FG shooter?

Lots of people here were wondering what we were gonna do for a PG after Quinn's So. year, a few stellar games into his So. season, so sure were they that he was a certain 1st rounder.
Several people were wondering what we were gonna do without Sheed after his Fr. season, so certain were they that he was gonna get drafted.
Alex Murphy was gonna blow it up and turns heads and get drafted (tho' most likely not after just his So. season).
I point these players out simply to show that it takes a lot more than talented players playing well against an overmatched opponent for me to take such projections seriously.
I love your enthusiasm about Duke's players, and i agree if many things break their way, and the results match the talent, all the guys you mentioned could make the Show.

Disagree completely about Smith playing at "much, much" higher levels than Sulaimon thus far. Smith didn't emerge as a great player until his junior year. He struggled a lot his freshman year and had his ups and downs his sophomore year. Doesn't that sophomore season sound like anyone on this year's team?

You're only remembering Nolan Smith as a junior and senior, and comparing those two seasons to Sulaimon as a freshman and sophomore. When in fact, Sulaimon as a freshman and sophomore was better than Nolan Smith as a freshman and sophomore. Poor comparison.

Smith as a freshman: 14.7 minutes per game, 5.9 points per game, 46.7 FG%, 76.9 FT%, 1.3 assists per game, 1.4 turnovers per game.
Sulaimon as a freshman: 29.2 minutes per game, 11.6 points per game, 42.4% FG%, 80.2% FT%, 1.9 assists per game, 1.3 turnovers per game.

Sulaimon also got to the line more than twice as often as Smith. Makes sense given the minutes, but Sulaimon had a more advanced ability off the dribble than Smith did as freshmen. Sulaimon was a more prolific 3-point shooter, although both shot the 3 around the same percentage their first two seasons.

On a per minute basis, Smith's production was decent. But he got very limited minutes on a team that was much worse than Sulaimon's team. Sulaimon got major minutes on a team with 3 seniors that played tons of minutes (Curry, Kelly, Plumlee). Smith got a lot less minutes on a less talented team that only had a senior DeMarcus Nelson and a junior Greg Paulus as upperclassmen (who saw big minutes). Sulaimon's team went 30-6 and went to the Elite Eight. Smith's team went 28-6 and flamed out in the second round of the tournament after almost losing to #15 seed Belmont in the first round. Sulaimon had a much better freshman season.

Smith and Sulaimon had very similar sophomore seasons statistically. But Sulaimon still averaged more minutes, points, assists, and rebounds, and less turnovers. Smith had better shooting percentages and slightly better defensive statistics.

Sulaimon also had a way better freshman season than Ewing. I'm not even going to bother pulling the stats because there's no comparison, and because Ewing played on a stacked championship contender. Ewing was slightly more efficient, but he was a role player as a freshman. Sulaimon was a key part of the rotation and was relied upon to score. Ewing and Sulaimon's sophomore seasons were very similar, with Ewing scoring a few more points in a couple more minutes per game of playing time. Again, I think you are wrong when you say Smith and Ewing were better than Sulaimon as freshman and sophomores. Sulaimon was better than both.

I've never said anything about Cook being a certain first rounder. In fact I've always thought the odds were against him ever playing in the NBA because of - guess what - his size! I also never claimed anything about Alex Murphy's NBA prospects. You're pointing to arguments random other people have made on these boards - arguments that I never made - to prove a point about what I have said. The point you've ultimately made fails to convince me of anything.

We can agree to disagree. Sure, we can't see into the future and neither of us knows for sure what will happen. We'll probably each be right and wrong about things we've said. But I stand by what I've said and I think my evaluations will be close when all is said and done. I'll certainly enjoy seeing how these players progress and if I turn out to be right or wrong about them.

[mgtr]

I don't pretend to have knowledge about the NBA, or who will do well there. And, frankly, I care much more about how these guys play while at Duke. We have a lot of very good players this year, and I am optimistic. Of course, we haven't had a real test yet, but we have some coming up pretty soon. I was a big fan of JJ (of course) for all four years, and also of Jon Scheyer and JWill for four and three years, respectively. This is easy stuff to say retrospectively. OK, my guy now is Grayson Allen. He has talent, but more importantly he has desire and a nose for the ball and the basket.
I think (hope) he will make significant contributions this year, but will be a really nice four-year player.

[Troublemaker]

We scored 113, and played ZONE for most of the last ten minutes.

I have not seen us play zone that much over the last twenty years combined.

Until today!


K said they had been working on it. For a group as young as we have, that's more than just calling of the dogs. That's an intent to use it, even if situationally. Which is light years from pre-USA K.

The situation was right today (and probably on certain occasions going forward). Certainly glad Coach K devoted some practice time this fall to building Duke's zone!

[killerleft]

Until today!



The situation was right today (and probably on certain occasions going forward). Certainly glad Coach K devoted some practice time this fall to building Duke's zone!

So... if Presbyterian weighs the same as a duck, throw Louisville into the pond?;) That's some good memory, there, Lou.

[Oriole Way]

Oriole Way, I've definitely been one of the "let your freak flag fly" writers on this board with regards to having enthusiasm for this team as opposed to the restrained, sandbaggery approach that other posters have taken.

But man, your last post comparing this team's NBA prospects to '98's was insane, friend.

Just one example. I freaking love Matt Jones but there's no way you can say with such confidence that he's an "NBA rotation player." To be an NBA rotation player, he would have to make his living as a 3-and-D player. And his 3 is very questionable at this point. His shotput shot seems to have just enough range right now to be effective in college. But I suspect moving back three feet to the NBA line is going to be trouble for him, as is his low release point. He might be able to make the adjustment, but he might not. I'll sure as heck be rooting for him.

And that's just one example. There were about 5 more statements you made that were simply way too optimistic. Winslow is for sure going to have a better career than Battier? Slow your roll here.

Just bumping this thread to look back at this discussion we were having. I'm confident that history will continue proving me right that 2014-2015 Duke had more top-shelf talent than 1997-1998 Duke.

It's a shame we lost Ojeleye to transfer, and that the Sulaimon situation happened the way it did. I still think both of those kids will wind up in the NBA, although Sulaimon has to do a lot of work on himself both on and off the court.

Grayson Allen is going to turn out to be a lottery pick, as soon as next year. This team is going to wind up considered one of the best 5-10 or so teams in Duke history, and one of the most very talented in terms of NBA impact. I could tell that this team was something special very early.

My posts weren't insane. They were quite the opposite.

[MartyClark]

This revived thread pertains, in part, to Winslow. I'm happy to say that I underestimated him. I saw Justise and Tyus last summer at the U.S.A. Basketball U18 tournament.

I thought Justise would be a solid Duke player but probably a 2-3 year guy. Wrong. He is remarkable and makes the difficult plays look a bit easy.

I will hate to see him go and, also assume Tyus is gone. Really good players who hit it out of the park this year for Duke.

[Troublemaker]

Hold your horses in declaring victory obnoxiously, Oriole Way. I'm not even sure why you bumped this thread when nothing has really changed; we're going to have to wait and see. The below seem to be the posts in question that several people, not just me, disagreed with you on. I've bolded the statements that I believe may prove in time to be problematic for you.


I don't think you fully appreciate how dominant Duke was tonight, and how rare a 69-point margin of victory is.

It wasn't hard to see that our defense last year was severely lacking. It was poor basically from start to finish, getting worse as the season went on and as the level of competition improved.

I've watched lots of the great Duke teams over the years. The kind of depth this team has is something no other Duke team can match. Only 1997-1998 comes close in terms of pure depth, and this team has more top-shelf talent.



Absolutely. Okafor and Winslow will be better NBA players than Brand and Battier, assuming they both stay healthy. Avery, Langdon, and McLeod all flamed out of the league quickly, and none of them justified their first round selections. This Duke team will have several late first round or second round players who will contribute to their teams (not unlike Kyle Singler).

This Duke team has up to 8 NBA prospects, with 7 being likely. It even has an outside shot of 8 NBA players if things break right for Amile Jefferson.

Okafor and Winslow are lottery picks. Jones will likely be a lottery pick after his sophomore season.

Okafor, Winslow, Tyus Jones, Matt Jones, Sulaimon, and Allen will all be NBA rotation players barring injury. Ojeleye is extremely likely to be drafted and make a D-League roster, and I like his chances of being an NBA rotation player if he can tighten up his handles and improve his defense. NBA GM's will salivate over Semi's athleticism and ability to shoot from the perimeter at his size.

In my estimation, that's 7 likely NBA players. Amile has a shot to be drafted - or at least get summer league invites, like Lance Thomas - if he can develop a jumper and add some bulk without sacrificing too much quickness. His rebounding ability is NBA-caliber. And Marshall has a shot just by nature of being 7-feet tall. I doubt he plays in the NBA, but I could see him getting a Summer League invitation.

Some people might doubt Matt Jones and Grayson Allen getting drafted, but I have little doubt that they will. Jones has the size, defensive ability, and potential to be a knock-down 3-point shooter that gets players drafted and in NBA rotations. Allen has NBA athleticism, and he also has the shooting ability and ball-handling ability to play in the NBA. I think he'll be better at the NBA level than Jimmer Fredette has been, even though he won't have the same kind of college career.

These Duke players will have a much longer shelf-life in the NBA than the 1998-1999 team did. And Okafor has a chance to be a perennial All-Star. Brand was a 2-time All-Star and double-double machine for several seasons, but ultimately he was undersized. He really got the most out of his ability. But Okafor has a chance to be a dominant center with the best post skills and footwork since Tim Duncan. He won't be as good as Anthony Davis, but he'll be a great player. The scouting reports are accurate, and I hope he stays healthy so we get to see him flourish in the NBA.

[Neals384]

<snip>
Grayson Allen is going to turn out to be a lottery pick, as soon as next year. This team is going to wind up considered one of the best 5-10 or so teams in Duke history, and one of the most very talented in terms of NBA impact. I could tell that this team was something special very early.


Well, one of the best 5 in Duke history, that's for sure!

[Duvall]

Well, one of the best 5 in Duke history, that's for sure!

Is it, though? Best ten, sure. Best five - it might be fifth behind 1992, 2001, 1999 and 1986. Going to have to think on that one.

[DukieInBrasil]

Is it, though? Best ten, sure. Best five - it might be fifth behind 1992, 2001, 1999 and 1986. Going to have to think on that one.

Any assertion that the 5 best teams do not include the 5 national champions is a faulty list.

[Duvall]

Any assertion that the 5 best teams do not include the 5 national champions is a faulty list.

Why? A team can lose in a single-elimination tournament - in the final game of a single-elimination tournament - and still be great. And a team can win a single-elimination tournament and not be close to being great - just look at UConn in 2011 and 2014.

[mr. synellinden]

If we were to judge "best" team by a determination of which team would have the best chance to win a playoff tournament/region of Duke teams in the Coach K era if each round involved a best of 5 series, then I think I would rank the top 16 best Coach K teams as follows:

1. 1999
2. 2001
3. 1992
4. 1986
5. 2010
6. 2015
7. 1991
8. 2004
9. 1998
10. 2002
11. 1988
12. 1994
13. 2006
14. 1989
15. 1990
16. 2013

[KandG]

If we were to judge "best" team by a determination of which team would have the best chance to win a playoff tournament/region of Duke teams in the Coach K era if each round involved a best of 5 series, then I think I would rank the top 16 best Coach K teams as follows:

1. 1999
2. 2001
3. 1992
4. 1986
5. 2010
6. 2015
7. 1991
8. 2004
9. 1998
10. 2002
11. 1988
12. 1994
13. 2006
14. 1989
15. 1990
16. 2013

Excellent list. I would switch 2015 and 2010, but this is a fun exercise to think about given the parameters of a five game playoff type series.

[Papa John]

If we were to judge "best" team by a determination of which team would have the best chance to win a playoff tournament/region of Duke teams in the Coach K era if each round involved a best of 5 series, then I think I would rank the top 16 best Coach K teams as follows:

1. 1999
2. 2001
3. 1992
4. 1986
5. 2010
6. 2015
7. 1991
8. 2004
9. 1998
10. 2002
11. 1988
12. 1994
13. 2006
14. 1989
15. 1990
16. 2013

1992
2001
1999
1986
2015
2010
1991

[Atldukie79]

Nice list. Al Featherston stipulated that a national title qualifies you for a top 5 slot regardless.

However, if you do not agree with that criteria, I agree that the 99 team was a steam roller. But 92 was too. If it weren't for 2 broken feet, that team would have been undefeated and would have been a clear top of the list choice.

[Newton_14]

Well, while we are all puffin out our chests here about our early season predictions of the team, I think I had a pretty good early assessment. :)

Who else wants to dig up their early predictions that were right?:cool:



Guys, I gotta tell you, I have been doing this for a very long time, and this team is something special. The chemistry this early is unbelievable. No long faces on the bench ever. They love each other, they love playing together, and the love passing to a teammate just as much as scoring themselves. That is beautiful to watch. The bench went absolutely nuts numerous times, most notably when Marshall drained the 3. Best Duke moment in a long time, On almost every timeout, the entire bench ran halfway out on the court to high five and bump chests with the 5 coming off the floor. Pure joy! I applaud all 10 guys for that kind of camaraderie.

The defense. Again, been doing this a very long time and this is the only time I can ever remember where an opponent went an entire half and never successfully ran a play on offense. Our defense was that brilliant and that disruptive the entire first half. I almost (but didn't) felt sorry for the Blue Hose. Yes talent wise they were inferior, but in terms of size, strength, quickness, and hops, their team was right on par with Duke. They just simply could not get into a set in that first half. Every basket was one on one playground style off broken plays. We threw all kinds of different full court presses and half court presses at them with great success. A forced 10 second call, a forced 5 second call, tons of deflections, two forced timeout calls when we had a player trapped with two defenders. It was amazing. The other amazing thing is how much better we clog things up in the halfcourt leaving no driving lanes. I know the icing is causing part of that but K has added other new wrinkles too, and it is extremely difficult to find a path to the hoop down the lane or baseline, and we trap at any an every opportunity from the baseline corners to up top. We have all said it but judging on where we are at right now in the schedule with compared to last year, the defense is miles better than last season. K ran multiple looks including man to man full court press, a couple of different variants of full court zone presses and halfcourt zone presses. Someone mentioned 10 minute of zone in the 2nd half, but actually we went to the 2-3 zone with 6.5 minutes left in the game and mixed in a 1-3-1 zone in several of those possessions and stayed in one of those 2 zones the full final 6.5 minutes of the game. Very interesting.

Offense. So different from last year. Rush the ball up the court, get a quick hitter if it is there and if not start the beautiful halfcourt offense. Jahlil makes our offense ten times more dangerous and we have 7 or 8 guys that can take full advantage of that. The spacing is so much better and I love how Jahlil is currently approaching things. He takes his time and reads the defense before deciding what he wants to do. With that he can make his move and score with ease with a full arsenal of weapons. Has the shooting touch of a guard, great hands, is a great passer. If they double him up hard, he kicks it out to a wide open shooter at the three point line, and if they single cover him then just forget it. He scores with ease. Ridiculously good and efficient. He forces nothing. There is no doubt if we force the issue he could get 25-30 on any given night, but we don't even need too due to all the many weapons around him. I have to wonder if there are more than 2 or 3 guys in the country that can defend him with any type of success.

Players:
Winslow- I have said so much on him its not much left to say. He is the real deal. Can hit the 3 and is the best driver on the ream attacking the basket and he too is virtually unstoppable once he gets to the rim. He is still showing that he can hit the 3 at a very respectable rate.

Quinn- Moving to the SG/Wing is a God send for this kid. He looks so much better and with Tyus at the point there is virtually no pressure on Quinn to run the offense. Agree with others that he will benefit the most from Jahlil on the floor and will wear teams out with his beautiful 3 Ball stroke. Also with the deep bench Quinn can go all out on defense unlike years past. His defense tonight was improved and really good.

Rasheed- Best game he has had in a DUke Uni in a very long time. Loved it. Played fast and quick but not in a hurry. DId a great job of mixing up taking it all the way to the rim himself to score on great movers while also keeping his head up and finding teammates for spot up 3s or dunks. He had some very nice play making assists where he drove, drew the defense and then dumped to Amile or Jahlil for an easy score.

Grayson- I am more impressed every time I see this kid play. Believe it or not, he might be just as good or better on defense as he is on offense. He moves his feet well, uses his body well, has good disruptive hands, blocks shots, rebound well and just understands how to play defense. Love this kid. We got a steal. So much better than his ranking. If/when K shortens the rotation he still might get squeezed just because we are so deep on the wing. He would have to pass Matt or Rasheed which would be a tall task but not impossible.

AMile- Great rebounding game, great leader, and played good defense. SOme of the foul calls were iffy. I thought he had a really solid game despite the foul trouble and not scoring a lot, but so many other kids were scoring so well we really did not need points from Amile tonight.

Tyus- Just the consummate pointguard. Sees the floor so well, sees plays developing one or two passes ahead of time and is great at hitting cutters in stride when the cut to the basket. He always seem to drive the ball to the correct position on the court to put himself in the best possible position to allow proper spacing by his teammates and then get the angle he wants to deliver a pass or set up a teammate to deliver the scoring pass after Tyus delivers the ball to him. Very quietly had like 15 points tonight in a variety of ways. Almost like a quiet assassin.



Matt- Was a little surprised he did not start given how well he had played thus far but I did note earlier that if anyone started over Matt in these first few games it would be Quinn. Matt was solid on defense and had the 4 point play with the 3 pointer and foul and drove the ball well too.

Semi- Rebounded really well, showing great strength. Played solid defense all night and looks to lead the team in charges drawn. Will likely get squeezed out if/when K shortens the rotation but is a good player and will be a solid in the rotation player before his career ends.

Marshall- Loved his energy and defense all night long and his free throw shooting is much improved. He looked really good at the line. Very solid stroke. Much better outside shooter than Mason and that was my thought before he drained the wide open three which was just awesome and brought the house down. Loved it. Very safe to have him on the floor when Jahlil is resting.

I simply cannot wait to see this team play a couple of top level teams, and play road games to see if they can perform the way we think they can. Despite how early it is and the level of competition hasn't been great, but to me this team looks to be one of the best teams K has had in a very long time. Which is saying something. They are simply going to pound non-Top 20 teams. Even on nights when the 3 ball is not falling they are going to score by Jahlil doing his thing down low and by Winslow scoring in multiple ways especially driving. IF teams focus on stopping Jahlil and Winslow, several other kids have the ability to make them pay a very large price.

For those that don't know, tonight was the second largest margin of victory ever in Cameron.

Long way to go but we got something special in this group. Grab your popcorn and enjoy the ride. Going to be a special year!

[g-money]

Well, while we are all puffin out our chests here about our early season predictions of the team, I think I had a pretty good early assessment. :)

Who else wants to dig up their early predictions that were right?:cool:

But Newt, you know what they say about a broken clock, right? Haha.

Here was my "broken clock" prediction, from two days before the title game:


If not Marshall, how about "stealing" defensive minutes with Amile on Kaminsky? He's got the agility to keep up, and even if he ends up fouling, at least he's not one of our critical guys on O.

Alternatively it could be more of a "monkey on a typewriter" type prediction. Naturally, I'll still take full credit.

[Oriole Way]

Hold your horses in declaring victory obnoxiously, Oriole Way. I'm not even sure why you bumped this thread when nothing has really changed; we're going to have to wait and see. The below seem to be the posts in question that several people, not just me, disagreed with you on. I've bolded the statements that I believe may prove in time to be problematic for you.

Ok. Let's wait and see. I still think this team will wind up with 7 NBA players, including the guys who were on the team at the time I made the statement.

You took issue with my saying that this team had more top-shelf talent than 1997-1998, calling the assertion "insane". I think you will continue to be proven wrong in disagreeing with my evaluation of this team, especially compared to 97-98. This team has already proven it was a superior team by winning a title and beating so many top teams on the way in doing so. The primary reason it was superior was because of it's sheer talent. Lots of NBA talent.

Matt Jones, for all his flaws, just finished up a season hitting 37.6% on his 3-point attempts. As a sophomore. With an unorthodox release that can likely be improved. That's impressive, and bodes well not only for his future at Duke, but for his future as a pro.

He made over 1 three per game and attempted almost 3 threes per game, a substantial volume for a clear 5th option. At his size, and with his defensive ability, he's going to make an NBA roster. Just watch.

[Troublemaker]

Ok. Let's wait and see.

I hope you bump this thread annually, Oriole, and post updates. It will be endlessly amusing to me.



You took issue with my saying that this team had more top-shelf talent than 1997-1998, calling the assertion "insane".

Believe me, I'm actually rooting for you. Your sensitivity to a throwaway adjective I used months ago to describe some of your insane guarantees makes you pitiable to me. And I deserve comeuppance for using that adjective.

I hope your predictions turn out to be accurate so you can write the most obnoxious "I Told You So!" post ever in one of the annual bumps and shove it in my face. If nothing else, you being right would mean extra Duke players doing well in the NBA. That'd be great!

But alas, your predictions are so horrible that my comeuppance will never arrive.



I still think this team will wind up with 7 NBA players, including the guys who were on the team at the time I made the statement.

Nope. Tyus, Grayson, Justise, and Jahlil are the locks. So that's 4 to start with. You will get 1 more from the six remaining players of: Quinn, Matt, Marshall, Amile, Rasheed, Semi. To make 5. If you're really, really lucky, you'll get 2 more to make 6. You're not going to get 7. That's insane.



Okafor, Winslow, Tyus Jones, Matt Jones, Sulaimon, and Allen will all be NBA rotation players barring injury.

That's REALLY insane. If Rasheed or Matt make the NBA, it'll be by the skin of their teeth and they'll be at the end of the bench.

I look forward to your April 2016 bump.

[bjornolf]

In my opinion, '99 may have had the most talent, but I don't think they were a great "team", and I think that's why they failed to close the deal.

[BobbyFan]

In my opinion, '99 may have had the most talent, but I don't think they were a great "team", and I think that's why they failed to close the deal.

Unless you are intending the quotes around team to imply something else, they absolutely were great. They lost because it simply happens in a single-elimination tournament, and we've seen that several times to the overall favorite.

And it wasn't just talent - they also complemented one another very well on both ends of the floor. The 2001 team may have had more talent.

[bjornolf]

Unless you are intending the quotes around team to imply something else, they absolutely were great. They lost because it simply happens in a single-elimination tournament, and we've seen that several times to the overall favorite.

And it wasn't just talent - they also complemented one another very well on both ends of the floor. The 2001 team may have had more talent.

You're right. I wasn't clear. They did complement each other well, but I seem to recall them falling apart a little in that title game.

[mkirsh]

You're right. I wasn't clear. They did complement each other well, but I seem to recall them falling apart a little in that title game.

Here's an interesting hypothetical - would 2015 Coach K have adjusted to the big-to-big doubles that stymied Brand and coached that team to a title?

[DukieInBrasil]

I hope you bump this thread annually, Oriole, and post updates. It will be endlessly amusing to me.



Believe me, I'm actually rooting for you. Your sensitivity to a throwaway adjective I used months ago to describe some of your insane guarantees makes you pitiable to me. And I deserve comeuppance for using that adjective.

I hope your predictions turn out to be accurate so you can write the most obnoxious "I Told You So!" post ever in one of the annual bumps and shove it in my face. If nothing else, you being right would mean extra Duke players doing well in the NBA. That'd be great!

But alas, your predictions are so horrible that my comeuppance will never arrive.




Nope. Tyus, Grayson, Justise, and Jahlil are the locks. So that's 4 to start with. You will get 1 more from the six remaining players of: Quinn, Matt, Marshall, Amile, Rasheed, Semi. To make 5. If you're really, really lucky, you'll get 2 more to make 6. You're not going to get 7. That's insane.



That's REALLY insane. If Rasheed or Matt make the NBA, it'll be by the skin of their teeth and they'll be at the end of the bench.

I look forward to your April 2016 bump.

I would be surprised to see Rasheed in the NBA, his game just doesn't have that something. Averaging only 7ppg as a Jr. will not inspire any GM to take a gamble on him. Semi is just too much of an unknown to me to make any sort of comment.
I really thought that MP3 might show some of the family skills, but after watching him this season, i don't think even his 7 ft height will convince teams to give him a look. He has terrible hands and just doesn't seem to have confidence in his game. He could prove me wrong in his Sr. year, but he has also just signed himself up for 2 years of military service after graduation so it doesn't look likely.
I'd love to see Quinn in the NBA, but if Nolan (nor Seth) couldn't stick, i don't see how Quinn will.
There's a lot of time left for Matt J. to show his skillset, but if after his So. season he hasn't turned any heads or generated any draft whispers, i doubt that will happen either.
I also thought Amile would be more impressive this year than he was, in a draft-stock sort of way. But the complete and utter lack of a jumpshot, or even the willingness to take one, made him a totally one-dimensional player on offense. He's a good rebounder, but not great, and if you've only got one marketable skill in the NBA you better be great at it.
I would have thought that Grayson would be the lone questionable player on the list who has moved himself into the "NBA caliber player" discussion, but i see you already put him as a lock for the NBA. He sure has the hops, and seems to have a passion for D. If his 3pt shot becomes a little more reliable next year, and can add a bit of mid range to his game, either through floaters or pull-up jumpers, this will complement his attack the rim skills very well. He's still a bit of a question mark, but he made some very impressive "draft stock noise" in the NCAAT.
I tend to agree with you on this debate. "Insane" may have been a bit of a harsh adjective, but calling all of those players, let alone any, as "locks" to be "rotation players in the NBA" is certainly not a clear-headed, or objective analysis of these guys' potential.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Nope. Tyus, Grayson, Justise, and Jahlil are the locks. So that's 4 to start with. You will get 1 more from the six remaining players of: Quinn, Matt, Marshall, Amile, Rasheed, Semi. To make 5. If you're really, really lucky, you'll get 2 more to make 6. You're not going to get 7. That's insane.

I'm convinced that Cook will not only make it to the NBA; he'll stay there. His skill set is perfect for a back-up PG: steady hand, excellent 3pt shooting, solid passing. He'll stay.

The questions are Amile Jefferson (tough call. With so many tall, athletic 4s in the NBA who can shoot, I'm not sure how a tall, mildly athletic 4 who can't shoot can make it), MP3 (zero chance. I mean, he already committed to the military), and Matt Jones (3-and-D, but clearly not there yet). If Amile goes bananas next year and Matt Jones averages 15+ over the next two years, I can see them both in the NBA.

So, 7 is indeed insane. But there is a chance.

[BlueTeuf]

MP3 (zero chance. I mean, he already committed to the military)


As I understand it, Marshall has pursued a commission in the Army Reserve. I have read nothing that indicates he has committed to (or is even considering) a full-time, active duty tour in the Armed Forces. As an Army Reservist, he would undergo some initial training and then serve one weekend a month as well as a 14 day Annual Training requirement - and be subject to activation and deployment at the behest of his nation's needs.

It's a significant commitment but would likely not interfere with ambitions to play professionally in the US. I see significant additional complexity if he tried to play overseas. There would be challenges, but I expect the Army Reserve hierarchy would allow some scheduling accommodation to ensure he meets the totality of his annual commitments.

[MCFinARL]

As I understand it, Marshall has pursued a commission in the Army Reserve. I have read nothing that indicates he has committed to (or is even considering) a full-time, active duty tour in the Armed Forces. As an Army Reservist, he would undergo some initial training and then serve one weekend a month as well as a 14 day Annual Training requirement - and be subject to activation and deployment at the behest of his nation's needs.

It's a significant commitment but would likely not interfere with ambitions to play professionally in the US. I see significant additional complexity if he tried to play overseas. There would be challenges, but I expect the Army Reserve hierarchy would allow some scheduling accommodation to ensure he meets the totality of his annual commitments.

This sounds right to me--people in the reserves pursue all kinds of other careers, and if Marshall found a playing opportunity in US, I think it is very likely the Army Reserve people would offer a little flexibility to make that work. Not so sure about an overseas commitment, unless he could play somewhere where there is a US military base nearby.

[toooskies]

This sounds right to me--people in the reserves pursue all kinds of other careers, and if Marshall found a playing opportunity in US, I think it is very likely the Army Reserve people would offer a little flexibility to make that work. Not so sure about an overseas commitment, unless he could play somewhere where there is a US military base nearby.

If he has the potential to play a professional sport, the US military will make an exception and count his playing as his service to the country as a recruiting tool. David Robinson obviously got this exemption from service for this reason, I believe Pat Tillman did too (although he chose to go back to active service).

Of course, MP3 probably tops out as an NBDL guy in the short term, and I'm not sure that'll be good enough for Uncle Sam.

[BlueTeuf]

If he has the potential to play a professional sport, the US military will make an exception and count his playing as his service to the country as a recruiting tool. David Robinson obviously got this exemption from service for this reason, I believe Pat Tillman did too (although he chose to go back to active service).

Of course, MP3 probably tops out as an NBDL guy in the short term, and I'm not sure that'll be good enough for Uncle Sam.

Naval Academy graduates have a five year commitment upon graduation. David Robinson graduated and was commissioned in 1987, served 2 years on Active Duty, and joined the NBA in 1989 ( I believe he was picked in the '87 draft). You are correct; this reduced commitment was treated as a unique decision and an exception to policy.

However, it's worth noting that he was not allowed to move directly from the academy to the NBA. To his credit, Robinson accepted the Navy's ruling, served honorably, and was good enough to earn both Rookie of the Year and Hall of Fame honors. But he did serve 2 yrs on Active Duty with no relationship (other than having been drafted by the Spurs) to professional basketball.

Pat Tillman's experience is completely unrelated. He never served in the military in any capacity, was drafted and played in the NFL. He made the unconventional choice to turn down a $1.2M/yr contract extension to enlist in the Army.