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JasonEvans
11-13-2014, 08:44 AM
After a drought that had lasted more than a year, Carolina has finally gotten a basketball commitment. It comes from 6-8, 225 pound PF Luke Maye, who is supposedly a good outside shooter for a beefy kinda kid. Luke's father played QB at UNC so this kid probably grew up bleeding Carolina blue. He is not exactly a typical Carolina recruit though. Yahoo ranks him as the #145 player in the class. 24/7 has him as the 33rd best PF prospect in the country. I can't fin anyone who thinks he is a top 100 recruit. He had a lot of offers from smaller division 1 schools like Charleston, Davidson, Elon, Richmond, and St. Joe's. The only BCS teams to offer him were Clemson and Notre Dame.

Carolina usually gets kid who are top 30 recruits. They usually battle Duke, Kentucky, Kansas, and the other elites for recruits. Sure, they might take a kid like Maye, especially because he is an in-state recruit, but it would typically be as an invited walk-on or after they had already signed a few other studs.

As far as I am concerned, UNC's long recruiting drought is not over. They still have not gotten a kid who figures to have an impact on the ACC in the class of 2015.

-Jason "now watch, Maye will come back to haunt me in a couple years when he is hauling in 9+ rebounds and burying 3s all over the floor... or NOT!" Evans
4481

subzero02
11-13-2014, 08:58 AM
Sounds like a poor man's Nick Horvath to me. If I recall correctly, Horvath was a top 100 recruit and Mr. Basketball in Minnesota.

Henderson
11-13-2014, 09:17 AM
He may not see a lot of minutes, but think about it from his perspective: It's probably a dream come true for him. His father says Luke grew up a tar heel fan. The Charlotte Observer says he also had offers from Virginia, Georgia Tech, Gonzaga, Notre Dame, Clemson, and Davidson.

My uninformed suspicion is that Roy offered him to make sure UNC-CH didn't whiff completely in the early signing period. But this guy is living his dream, so it's hard not to be pleased for him.

I wish him well (but not too well) and hope that Roy signs many more such players to the program.

davekay1971
11-13-2014, 09:37 AM
UNC is working on the kind of recruiting that led to the talent deficiency that defined the 2002 Tar Heel team. This kid is probably a good kid, a fine basketball player, but not the sort of kid that the Tar Heel fan base would ever get excited about as a recruit. As Jason correctly noted, he's the level of recruit that, a few years ago, would have to walk on to the team or be the fifth kid recruited, mainly as a practice guy who might develop into a good role player. As we all know, he could develop into much, much more. But the odds of the number 25 power forward prospect being an ACC star, or even an eventual starter on a typical UNC team, are pretty long. Given that Carolina basically whiffed on 2 much bigger prospects this week, getting Maye isn't enough to call this a recruiting success for Carolina's usual standards.

FWIW: I think this week is evidence that the ongoing and increasing scandals at UNC are affecting their recruiting in a significant way. If I were a top high school prospect with other options, I would stay well away from Carolina right now. An informed kid, or a kid with good advising, would be considering the possibility of sanctions at UNC, or of Roy resigning or retiring after the 2014-2015 season. Roy hasn't forgotten how to recruit...but for the first time he's having to recruit to a program that has some real negatives for kids to consider.

Karl Beem
11-13-2014, 09:40 AM
I hope he's a future starting 5 for them!:)

FerryFor50
11-13-2014, 09:57 AM
Maybe UNC thought he was related to Sean May(e)...

Kedsy
11-13-2014, 10:24 AM
UNC is working on the kind of recruiting that led to the talent deficiency that defined the 2002 Tar Heel team.

Actually the four year recruiting UNC has done leading into the 2015-16 season is far worse than the four year period leading up to 2001-02.

In each period, UNC brought in ten top 100 guys:

Rank of 1998-2001 UNC recruits (per RSCI): #4, #6, #10, #11, #22, #24, #25, #33, #37, #54

(note UNC also successfully recruited #15 Jason Parker in that period, but he never made it to campus due to academic concerns (!))

Rank of 2012-2015 UNC recruits (per RSCI): #9, #14, #15, #25, #28, #40, #56, #57, #58, #93

Three top ten guys vs. one top ten guy. Seven top 25 guys vs. four top 25 guys. Nine top 50 guys vs. six top 50 guys. By pretty much every measure, the recruiting leading up to the 2002 team was far superior to that leading up to the 2016 team (at least so far).



As Jason correctly noted, he's the level of recruit that, a few years ago, would have to walk on to the team or be the fifth kid recruited, mainly as a practice guy who might develop into a good role player.

It's my understanding the kid will be a walk on, at least his freshman year. He just happens to be all they've got coming in (so far) for 2015.

Henderson
11-13-2014, 10:53 AM
Actually the four year recruiting UNC has done leading into the 2015-16 season is far worse than the four year period leading up to 2001-02.

In each period, UNC brought in ten top 100 guys:

Rank of 1998-2001 UNC recruits (per RSCI): #4, #6, #10, #11, #22, #24, #25, #33, #37, #54

(note UNC also successfully recruited #15 Jason Parker in that period, but he never made it to campus due to academic concerns (!))

Rank of 2012-2015 UNC recruits (per RSCI): #9, #14, #15, #25, #28, #40, #56, #57, #58, #93

Three top ten guys vs. one top ten guy. Seven top 25 guys vs. four top 25 guys. Nine top 50 guys vs. six top 50 guys. By pretty much every measure, the recruiting leading up to the 2002 team was far superior to that leading up to the 2016 team (at least so far).

Well, now, Carolina slipping is a shame. Still, we do have the existing team to contend with, and the trio of Paige, Johnson, and Jackson means they have serious potential this year. Marcus Paige is a known quantity, maybe overhyped a bit, but a really good basketball player with a good music video. Brice Johnson is really good and improving. I think he's getting less respect than he deserves. And Justin Jackson is the real deal. He may be one-and-done.

Kedsy's information (and thanks for that) suggests that UNC is headed for a slide in the future, and those stats don't even reflect the effect of the recruiting troubles Roy or his successor is going to have going forward. So future such stats will likely be worse for UNC in the next few years.

But the recruiting effects of the scandal won't start playing out for a year or two. In the meantime, Carolina is going to be (or at least should be) a formidable opponent this year. They've got three really good players at three key positions.

9F

flyingdutchdevil
11-13-2014, 11:11 AM
Well, now, Carolina slipping is a shame. Still, we do have the existing team to contend with, and the trio of Paige, Johnson, and Jackson means they have serious potential this year. Marcus Paige is a known quantity, maybe overhyped a bit, but a really good basketball player with a good music video. Brice Johnson is really good and improving. I think he's getting less respect than he deserves. And Justin Jackson is the real deal. He may be one-and-done.

Kedsy's information (and thanks for that) suggests that UNC is headed for a slide in the future, and those stats don't even reflect the effect of the recruiting troubles Roy or his successor is going to have going forward. So future such stats will likely be worse for UNC in the next few years.

But the recruiting effects of the scandal won't start playing out for a year or two. In the meantime, Carolina is going to be (or at least should be) a formidable opponent this year. They've got three really good players at three key positions.

9F

A few things:

1) If Paige has a great year, what's the upside of staying for his senior year? The dude is most likely gone. Same for Jackson and Johnson, especially if their top PG leaves. That means that UNC after this year will be baaaaaaaaad. I think Kedsy's on to something.

2) If Paige is overhyped, what does what make Okafor, who hasn't played a game against D1 competition? I think Paige is appropriately hyped. I, unfortunately, am a huge Paige fan. He's the last UNC player since Ty Lawson that I really liked (and I liked Ty Lawson because we couldn't find a star PG since Duhon had left).

3) I 100% agree with you about the effects of the scandal on recruiting. They won't show up this year nor possibly next year, but if this recruiting slide continues? Good luck with 2016/2017 and beyond.

Duvall
11-13-2014, 11:14 AM
A few things:

1) If Paige has a great year, what's the upside of staying for his senior year? The dude is most likely gone. Same for Jackson and Johnson, especially if their top PG leaves. That means that UNC after this year will be baaaaaaaaad. I think Kedsy's on to something.

Gone where? Can't be an NBA prospect without the NBA agreeing.


2) If Paige is overhyped, what does what make Okafor, who hasn't played a game against D1 competition? I think Paige is appropriately hyped. I, unfortunately, am a huge Paige fan. He's the last UNC player since Ty Lawson that I really liked (and I liked Ty Lawson because we couldn't find a star PG since Duhon had left).

Okafor is an unknown. Paige is a known one-dimensional player.

Furniture
11-13-2014, 11:37 AM
A few things:

1) If Paige has a great year, what's the upside of staying for his senior year? The dude is most likely gone. Same for Jackson and Johnson, especially if their top PG leaves. That means that UNC after this year will be baaaaaaaaad. I think Kedsy's on to something.

2) If Paige is overhyped, what does what make Okafor, who hasn't played a game against D1 competition? I think Paige is appropriately hyped. I, unfortunately, am a huge Paige fan. He's the last UNC player since Ty Lawson that I really liked (and I liked Ty Lawson because we couldn't find a star PG since Duhon had left).

3) I 100% agree with you about the effects of the scandal on recruiting. They won't show up this year nor possibly next year, but if this recruiting slide continues? Good luck with 2016/2017 and beyond.

If Paige and the other guys go as you say after this year then dont you think they take the opportunity to clear house and get rid of Roy...

BD80
11-13-2014, 11:37 AM
How about a little love for Luke and for ol' roy's new recruiting standards?

This is ol' roy's first recruit at unc who was able to fill out the unc application by himself!!!!!



In the interest of full disclosure, it should be noted that he did color a bit outside the lines on the essay.

devildeac
11-13-2014, 11:47 AM
How about a little love for Luke and for ol' roy's new recruiting standards?

This is ol' roy's first recruit at unc who was able to fill out the unc application by himself!!!!!



In the interest of full disclosure, it should be noted that he did color a bit outside the lines on the essay.

Which probably dropped his grade from an A to an A-:rolleyes:.

HK Dukie
11-13-2014, 11:58 AM
As far as I am concerned, UNC's long recruiting drought is not over. [/ATTACH]

Which is to say, NOT concerned at all ;)

yancem
11-13-2014, 12:18 PM
Well, now, Carolina slipping is a shame. Still, we do have the existing team to contend with, and the trio of Paige, Johnson, and Jackson means they have serious potential this year. Marcus Paige is a known quantity, maybe overhyped a bit, but a really good basketball player with a good music video. Brice Johnson is really good and improving. I think he's getting less respect than he deserves. And Justin Jackson is the real deal. He may be one-and-done.

Kedsy's information (and thanks for that) suggests that UNC is headed for a slide in the future, and those stats don't even reflect the effect of the recruiting troubles Roy or his successor is going to have going forward. So future such stats will likely be worse for UNC in the next few years.

But the recruiting effects of the scandal won't start playing out for a year or two. In the meantime, Carolina is going to be (or at least should be) a formidable opponent this year. They've got three really good players at three key positions.

9F

Why do you think that the effects of the scandal won't start playing our for a year or two? While it is possible that unc's struggles with the class of '15 are mere happenstance, that the players in the class just are a good fit or whatever, but isn't it just as likely that current high school recruits have been paying attention to what has been reported over the last year and are hesitant to choose unc for fear of having to deal with whatever sanctions are handed down? If I was a parent of a high school junior or senior recruit, I would have serious concerns about my son walking into the current unc climate (of course I would have those same hesitations without the scandal :D, but that's beside the point).

Des Esseintes
11-13-2014, 12:19 PM
Gone where? Can't be an NBA prospect without the NBA agreeing.

Okafor is an unknown. Paige is a known one-dimensional player.

For what it's worth, Draft Express has both Johnson and Paige in its 2015 mock (http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-mock-draft/2015/).

Duvall
11-13-2014, 12:22 PM
For what it's worth, Draft Express has both Johnson and Paige in its 2015 mock (http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-mock-draft/2015/).

Johnson could certainly leave, especially if he improves on defense this year. Paige...I guess being a second-rounder would beat taking your chances with a possible NCAA ban.

OldPhiKap
11-13-2014, 12:24 PM
Sounds like a poor man's Nick Horvath to me. If I recall correctly, Horvath was a top 100 recruit and Mr. Basketball in Minnesota.

I don't know about "poor man" or not but I think the Melch comparison is apt.

The kid always wanted to go there, he will get more playing time than he would under normal circumstances given Roy's recent top-shelf recruiting whiffs.

Good for him.


As for Roy and the cloud of uncertainty hanging over the Dump on the Hump -- they have no one to blame but themselves. Not sure who Roy is going to throw under the bus for his recent recruiting woes, but be sure -- it's not Huck's fault.

Bluegrassdevil1
11-13-2014, 12:33 PM
The inclusion of Maye into the UNC "family" reminds me a great deal of what UK did in 1989 with "The Unforgettables". In the wake of the Sutton, Manuel, and Mills scandal, the program brought in the three Kentucky kids, Farmer, Feldhaus, Pelphrey, and, from Indy, Woods, which formed a four person collective truly interested in bringing UK back to their glory years, willingly enduring the struggles and penalties resulting from the scandal.

Those four kids really did stabilize the program, and most importantly, made Jamal Mashburn feel comfortable enough to commit to Pitino, leading to the program's return against Duke in '92. UK went on a great run from '93-99, and none of that success would have occurred had those four kids not given it their all in some truly devastating losses.

I am unsure if there is another Rick Pitino willing to leave the NBA to reconstruct a fallen empire; however, Brad Stevens may somewhat resemble early 90's Pitino, but Maye could be the first step towards UNC trying to save face publicly; the program loses a great many games, but they do it on the shoulders of good kids that are difficult to root against as they struggle.

A large part of me is beside himself with glee as I watch UNC suffer, but it will be tough to watch three or four Carolina natives get pummeled year after year, and not think to myself: "from a PR perspective, UNC lost their Augustus status, but through the efforts of the plebes, they may rise as a stronger Caesar than ever before."

Ichabod Drain
11-13-2014, 12:45 PM
Gone where? Can't be an NBA prospect without the NBA agreeing.



Okafor is an unknown. Paige is a known one-dimensional player.

Just curious what one dimension Paige is?

Kedsy
11-13-2014, 12:57 PM
Johnson could certainly leave, especially if he improves on defense this year.

Seriously? What has Brice Johnson ever done that would convince anyone that he's an early entry candidate? His size and stats last season aren't all that different from Amile Jefferson's (http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/compare?add=amile-jefferson&p1=brice-johnson). Does anyone think Amile is leaving early?

MCFinARL
11-13-2014, 01:08 PM
Why do you think that the effects of the scandal won't start playing our for a year or two? While it is possible that unc's struggles with the class of '15 are mere happenstance, that the players in the class just are a good fit or whatever, but isn't it just as likely that current high school recruits have been paying attention to what has been reported over the last year and are hesitant to choose unc for fear of having to deal with whatever sanctions are handed down? If I was a parent of a high school junior or senior recruit, I would have serious concerns about my son walking into the current unc climate (of course I would have those same hesitations without the scandal :D, but that's beside the point).

I think the OP meant that the effects wouldn't start playing out on the court for a year or two, when the high school recruiting classes of 2015 and 2016 would be playing. This season UNC still has a pretty loaded roster.

Reisen
11-13-2014, 01:19 PM
Just curious what one dimension Paige is?

Gravity.

Duvall
11-13-2014, 01:33 PM
Just curious what one dimension Paige is?

Shooting. Well, putting up shots anyway.

UrinalCake
11-13-2014, 01:34 PM
I remember when the Patriots acquired Randy Moss late in his career, Bill Simmons made the analogy of a used Ferrari. Maybe it's decades old, and rusted out, and the engine doesn't start, but you buy it because it's a Ferrari after all, and still has that logo.

That's pretty much what UNC is to potential recruits. There's little chance they'll get to play in the post-season, banners are coming down, administrative housecleaning is likely, and their reputation is that of a punchline. But go there and you'll still get to put on that uniform you spent your childhood dreaming about. For 3-star guys like Maye, that might be worth it.

Olympic Fan
11-13-2014, 02:21 PM
just a question.

We're all speculating about the impact the scandal is having on UNC's recruiting -- and Roy does seem to be doing through a terrible dry spell.

But at the same time, Sylvia Hatchell -- whose woman's program is just as deep in the mire -- just signed one of the best recruiting classes in the country. Apparently she landed three five-star recruits.

Why is the scandal hurting Roy and not Sylvia?

Dr. Rosenrosen
11-13-2014, 02:28 PM
just a question.

We're all speculating about the impact the scandal is having on UNC's recruiting -- and Roy does seem to be doing through a terrible dry spell.

But at the same time, Sylvia Hatchell -- whose woman's program is just as deep in the mire -- just signed one of the best recruiting classes in the country. Apparently she landed three five-star recruits.

Why is the scandal hurting Roy and not Sylvia?
Maybe because it's not nearly as visible. And she's probably done a good job of shielding her team/program. She's barely been in the news.

devildeac
11-13-2014, 03:58 PM
just a question.

We're all speculating about the impact the scandal is having on UNC's recruiting -- and Roy does seem to be doing through a terrible dry spell.

But at the same time, Sylvia Hatchell -- whose woman's program is just as deep in the mire -- just signed one of the best recruiting classes in the country. Apparently she landed three five-star recruits.

Why is the scandal hurting Roy and not Sylvia?

Recruits love ivory latta?

:rolleyes:

Olympic Fan
11-13-2014, 04:05 PM
Maybe because it's not nearly as visible. And she's probably done a good job of shielding her team/program. She's barely been in the news.

There have certainly been stories with Sylvia sounding like an idiot when asked about the report:

http://www.dailytarheel.com/article/2014/11/sylvia-hatchell-mum-on-wainstein-report-after-first-womens-basketball-game

That includes her famous response:

Whether Hatchell knew about the classes or Boxill’s involvement, she didn’t linger on the facts for long.

Instead, the coach ranted. She started with general praise.

“Until Saturday, we had three weekends where nobody lost at all,” Hatchell said. “We were 13-0-1 in every sport.”

“I bet you there’s not a school in the country that can say that except (UNC).”

She later came back with a determined defense of her friend Jan Boxill, the head of the ethics department, who was caught by Wainstein fixing grades for UNC basketball women's players:

http://www.heraldsun.com/sports/unc/x1726675741/Hatchell-says-she-was-unaware-of-academic-fraud-lauds-Boxill

Wainstein documented 114 instances where one of Hatchell's players took a phony class and says (on page 62) that at least eight of Hatchell's players were only eligible because of their grades in phony classes (the classes that Boxill helped arrange).

Hard to believe that Hatchell isn't suffering as Roy is ...

PS It's also hard to believe that Anson Dorrance and Mike Fox haven't been fired -- Weinstein presented direct evidence linking them to the scam, unlike the plausible deniability the assistants have provided for Roy and Sylvia and a succession of football players.

Duvall
11-13-2014, 04:19 PM
just a question.

We're all speculating about the impact the scandal is having on UNC's recruiting -- and Roy does seem to be doing through a terrible dry spell.

But at the same time, Sylvia Hatchell -- whose woman's program is just as deep in the mire -- just signed one of the best recruiting classes in the country. Apparently she landed three five-star recruits.

Why is the scandal hurting Roy and not Sylvia?

Possibilities:

1) The scandal isn't hurting Roy as much as we would like to think, and the UNC men are just hitting a down cycle in recruiting. There's not much playing time opening up at UNC next year anyway, as they don't have much in the way of NBA-ready talent.
2) The scandal is hurting Roy, but only with one-and-done players who don't want to risk missing their one chance at playing in the NCAA Tournament. Women's basketball doesn't have one-and-done players, so those recruits are able to take a longer view. (The same logic applies to UNC football, who hasn't seen much of a dry spell either.)
3) All the chatter about sanctions has been focused on football and basketball - easy to see how a non-obsessed recruit could miss the possibility of sanctions against the women's team.

BD80
11-13-2014, 04:25 PM
Possibilities:

1) The scandal isn't hurting Roy as much as we would like to think, and the UNC men are just hitting a down cycle in recruiting. There's not much playing time opening up at UNC next year anyway, as they don't have much in the way of NBA-ready talent.
2) The scandal is hurting Roy, but only with one-and-done players who don't want to risk missing their one chance at playing in the NCAA Tournament. Women's basketball doesn't have one-and-done players, so those recruits are able to take a longer view. (The same logic applies to UNC football, who hasn't seen much of a dry spell either.)
3) All the chatter about sanctions has been focused on football and basketball - easy to see how a non-obsessed recruit could miss the possibility of sanctions against the women's team.

ol' roy may have missed an entire academic scandal committed right under his nose ...

ol' roy may have missed on a recruit or two (or three or four ...) ...

but ol' roy has NEVER missed a tee-time.

THAT would be a dadgum disaster!

Wheat/"/"/"
11-13-2014, 05:10 PM
Shooting. Well, putting up shots anyway.

My short reply is that basically you are just plain wrong on Paige.

Paige is the most complete point guard in college now.

While he may not be "explosive", he's plenty athletic and against elite defenders. He's "crafty" with the ball and using screens to still get his space to shoot, and he can finish off the dribble at the rim.

Oh, and he's an excellent ball handler, defender and leader.

He's about as far from "one-dimensional" as any college player in the game.

As for UNC recruiting, it remains to be seen how the scandal will impact RW's ability to sign the highest level players.

Maye's signing is a lot like Desmond Hubert, Jackson Simmons, etc...a quality 4 year player that is an important to building a teams foundation.

IMO, the main reason for the inability to sign other top players this year is due more to lack of potential playing time next year, and top guys want to know their gonna play, from the start, a lot.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
11-13-2014, 05:18 PM
My short reply is that basically you are just plain wrong on Paige.

Paige is the most complete point guard in college now.

While he may not be "explosive", he's plenty athletic and against elite defenders. He's "crafty" with the ball and using screens to still get his space to shoot, and he can finish off the dribble at the rim.

Oh, and he's an excellent ball handler, defender and leader.

He's about as far from "one-dimensional" as any college player in the game.

As for UNC recruiting, it remains to be seen how the scandal will impact RW's ability to sign the highest level players.

Maye's signing is a lot like Desmond Hubert, Jackson Simmons, etc...a quality 4 year player that is an important to building a teams foundation.

IMO, the main reason for the inability to sign other top players this year is due more to lack of potential playing time next year, and top guys want to know their gonna play, from the start, a lot.

Wheat isn't wrong about the love Paige is getting. Several ESPN folks (http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/11853691/predictions-college-basketball-season) have Paige tabbed for NPOY.

I wouldn't want to wager against him.

slower
11-13-2014, 05:20 PM
I may be in the minority here, but the mere existence of this thread offends me, if for no other reason than we now have to listen to Wheat bloviate. :p

Dr. Rosenrosen
11-13-2014, 05:24 PM
My short reply is that basically you are just plain wrong on Paige.

Paige is the most complete point guard in college now.

While he may not be "explosive", he's plenty athletic and against elite defenders. He's "crafty" with the ball and using screens to still get his space to shoot, and he can finish off the dribble at the rim.

Oh, and he's an excellent ball handler, defender and leader.

He's about as far from "one-dimensional" as any college player in the game.

As for UNC recruiting, it remains to be seen how the scandal will impact RW's ability to sign the highest level players.

Maye's signing is a lot like Desmond Hubert, Jackson Simmons, etc...a quality 4 year player that is an important to REbuilding a teams FUTURE foundation ONCE IT COLLAPSES.

IMO, the main reason for the inability to sign other top players this year is due more to lack of potential playing time next year, and top guys want to know their gonna play, from the start, a lot.
Fixed that for you...

CameronBornAndBred
11-13-2014, 05:24 PM
Roy's luck may be running dry, but the other team at the heart of the scandal picked up a 4 star in state recruit today. Jalen Dalton plans on wearing the baby blue. (Duke was after him too.)
http://espn.go.com/college-sports/football/recruiting/player/_/id/187848/jalen-dalton

Dr. Rosenrosen
11-13-2014, 05:32 PM
I may be in the minority here, but the mere existence of this thread offends me, if for no other reason than we now have to listen to Wheat bloviate. :p
This is one reason I love this board... it improves my vocabulary!

Duvall
11-13-2014, 05:32 PM
My short reply is that basically you are just plain wrong on Paige.

Paige is the most complete point guard in college now.

Fred Van Vleet shot better than Paige from 2 last season, better than Paige from 3, got to the free throw line more, had a higher assist rate and a lower turnover rate, was a better defensive rebounder, a better offensive rebounder, and was a better defender, all for a team far superior to last year's UNC squad.

Paige was a slightly better FT shooter (87% vs. 83%). But Paige plays for a top ESPN brand, so *of course* he's getting more hype.

Wheat/"/"/"
11-13-2014, 05:38 PM
I may be in the minority here, but the mere existence of this thread offends me, if for no other reason than we now have to listen to Wheat educate. :p

Oh the irony...fixed it for you. :)

Duvall
11-13-2014, 05:41 PM
I may be in the minority here, but the mere existence of this thread offends me, if for no other reason than we now have to listen to Wheat bloviate. :p

Hey, we all know that a thread about a white UNC reserve post player is going to be catnip for Wheat. Birds gotta fly, fish gotta swim.

Wander
11-13-2014, 05:47 PM
Fred Van Vleet shot better than Paige from 2 last season, better than Paige from 3, got to the free throw line more, had a higher assist rate and a lower turnover rate, was a better defensive rebounder, a better offensive rebounder, and was a better defender, all for a team far superior to last year's UNC squad.

Paige was a slightly better FT shooter (87% vs. 83%). But Paige plays for a top ESPN brand, so *of course* he's getting more hype.

OK, but VanVleet and Paige are probably the two best returning point guards from last season, and along with our own Tyus Jones are the most commonly projected top 3 point guards for this season. I don't see how any ordering of those three guys is unreasonable right now.

slower
11-13-2014, 05:51 PM
Oh the irony...fixed it for you. :)

Oh, the PERFECT irony that bloviate does not mean what you apparently think it does. :D

Kedsy
11-13-2014, 05:51 PM
Paige is the most complete point guard in college now.

Well, he can only be considered for such a distinction if he actually plays point guard, right? Aren't you the one who's been advocating Nate Britt at PG and Paige off the ball?

Wheat/"/"/"
11-13-2014, 06:22 PM
Well, he can only be considered for such a distinction if he actually plays point guard, right? Aren't you the one who's been advocating Nate Britt at PG and Paige off the ball?

I thought early on that there would be a chance that Britt could start and Paige would then play the 2g a lot this season, but it seems Jackson has stepped up enough at SF to allow Roy to slide Tokoto to 2g and keep Paige at the point the majority of the time.

...That Paige could easily play 2g is just another example of why it's crazy to call him one-dimensional.

OldPhiKap
11-13-2014, 06:49 PM
Paige is a legit AA contender, not sure why that is a debate.

Gotta either stop him, or stop everyone else and give him his points.

slower
11-13-2014, 06:59 PM
Oh, the PERFECT irony that bloviate does not mean what you apparently think it does. :D

Sorry, Wheat - over the top on my part. No harm intended.

Wheat/"/"/"
11-13-2014, 07:07 PM
Sorry, Wheat - over the top on my part. No harm intended.

No worries...

-bdbd
11-13-2014, 07:13 PM
Maybe UNC thought he was related to Sean May(e)...

Sean May would eat this kid for lunch! (along with a few burgers, fries and ic cream....)

:D

Henderson
11-13-2014, 08:03 PM
I remember when the Patriots acquired Randy Moss late in his career, Bill Simmons made the analogy of a used Ferrari. Maybe it's decades old, and rusted out, and the engine doesn't start, but you buy it because it's a Ferrari after all, and still has that logo.

That's pretty much what UNC is to potential recruits. There's little chance they'll get to play in the post-season, banners are coming down, administrative housecleaning is likely, and their reputation is that of a punchline. But go there and you'll still get to put on that uniform you spent your childhood dreaming about. For 3-star guys like Maye, that might be worth it.

Why limit such a dream to 18 year old kids? Maybe Roy could turn Carolina basketball into a subsidiary of the Make-A-Wish Foundation. And all those 5-10, 250 lb. guys in the Carolina Family can brush the potato chip crumbs off their wife-beater-clad bellies, swing the trailer door wide open, greet the day, and go play ball for Carolina.

"Just because you don't have a star doesn't mean you can't be a star."

subzero02
11-13-2014, 09:28 PM
Why limit such a dream to 18 year old kids? Maybe Roy could turn Carolina basketball into a subsidiary of the Make-A-Wish Foundation. And all those 5-10, 250 lb. guys in the Carolina Family can brush the potato chip crumbs off their wife-beater-clad bellies, swing the trailer door wide open, greet the day, and go play ball for Carolina.

"Just because you don't have a star doesn't mean you can't be a star."

That's just wrong... So wrong...

Furniture
11-13-2014, 10:01 PM
I may be in the minority here, but the mere existence of this thread offends me, if for no other reason than we now have to listen to Wheat bloviate. :p

Really looking forward to the season starting so I can read about Duke Basketball. These UNC threads are a little tedious bordering childish and take up too much space. While we're are on it I can't understand why certain posters can't be sensible enough to admit that Paige is a really good player.

tele
11-14-2014, 12:24 AM
Really looking forward to the season starting so I can read about Duke Basketball. These UNC threads are a little tedious bordering childish and take up too much space. While we're are on it I can't understand why certain posters can't be sensible enough to admit that Paige is a really good player.

Paige has a great release on his shot. But his decision making running the point is uneven looking to me, although that may be due to drections from the bench...hard to say.

CDu
11-14-2014, 09:55 AM
I thought early on that there would be a chance that Britt could start and Paige would then play the 2g a lot this season, but it seems Jackson has stepped up enough at SF to allow Roy to slide Tokoto to 2g and keep Paige at the point the majority of the time.

...That Paige could easily play 2g is just another example of why it's crazy to call him one-dimensional.

As a scorer, I agree. He's really versatile. I've never been terribly impressed with Paige as a PG though. So I wouldn't say he's the most complete PG in college as I don't think he's good enough at the things that make a PG great. I'd say he's probably the most complete scoring guard in college though, because he's a terrific scorer in a variety of ways and also has the ability to play some PG.

Regardless, that's a nitpick. He has developed into easily one of the best players in the country overall.

The questions with UNC remain: do they have enough around him to be elite? That remains to be seen.

As for Luke Maye, I think it's silly to harp on this signing. He's not going to be a scholarship player unless the Heels wind up with extra available. He's another Jackson Simmons type of recruit. A good kid, willing to come in and pay his own way, and just be a practice player who will do whatever the team needs. If he was the third or fourth recruit to sign with UNC, nobody would bat an eye. It's just that they haven't hit on any of their top targets so far.

JasonEvans
11-14-2014, 10:22 AM
Seriously? What has Brice Johnson ever done that would convince anyone that he's an early entry candidate? His size and stats last season aren't all that different from Amile Jefferson's (http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/compare?add=amile-jefferson&p1=brice-johnson). Does anyone think Amile is leaving early?

Ummm, Brice averaged twice as many points per minute as Amile despite often drawing a ton of attention from the opposition D (while Amile was pretty much always the 4th or 5th most important offensive player on the floor for Duke last year). If you think that isn't "all that different" then I don't really know what to say.

Plus, there is an eye test going on here. Watching Brice Johnson, I saw a guy who was capable -- at times -- of taking over the game with his quick release and myriad of moves in the paint. I was always happy when Carolina would have McAdoo in the game and Johnson on the bench as I was certain Johnson was a more effective player for them.

I don't say any of this to put down Amile, who is a kid I love and who (I think) has subjugated his offensive game to focus on different things while at Duke... something that may change a bit this year. I merely say all this to point out the real potential I think Brice Johnson has. I won't be at all surprised if that kid becomes Antwan Jamison-lite this season. I hope not, but I won't be surprised to see it.

-Jason "worth noting that Johnson came to UNC as a very young freshman prospect. He's a year younger than most kids in his class which could mean he has more growth potential as he continues to mature into a man" Evans

Kedsy
11-14-2014, 11:00 AM
Ummm, Brice averaged twice as many points per minute as Amile despite often drawing a ton of attention from the opposition D (while Amile was pretty much always the 4th or 5th most important offensive player on the floor for Duke last year). If you think that isn't "all that different" then I don't really know what to say.

Johnson had a much higher usage rate than Amile, and thus scored more. Amile's oRating was way better than Johnson's, though. Their other stats are pretty similar. But since the original supposition to which I responded was that Brice Johnson has a good chance of entering the NBA draft after this season, there's no way his scoring advantage over Amile is enough to put him in the early entry NBA conversation if Amile isn't also in that conversation (and he clearly isn't).

Sure, Brice Johnson could develop into a superstar and go pro after this season, but in theory so could Amile. Of course I could be wrong, but personally I think both player's chances of doing so in 2015 are so close to zero that they're pretty much the same.

CDu
11-14-2014, 11:42 AM
Johnson had a much higher usage rate than Amile, and thus scored more. Amile's oRating was way better than Johnson's, though. Their other stats are pretty similar. But since the original supposition to which I responded was that Brice Johnson has a good chance of entering the NBA draft after this season, there's no way his scoring advantage over Amile is enough to put him in the early entry NBA conversation if Amile isn't also in that conversation (and he clearly isn't).

Sure, Brice Johnson could develop into a superstar and go pro after this season, but in theory so could Amile. Of course I could be wrong, but personally I think both player's chances of doing so in 2015 are so close to zero that they're pretty much the same.

ORtg is a pretty bad metric when comparing players who have very different usage rates and usage patterns. ORtg is inherently biased toward players who only take high-percentage shots. So a guy who is a 3rd/4th option that knows to stay in his lane is very likely to have a better ORtg than a player whose role is a primary offensive weapon. Andre Dawkins and Tyler Thornton are the poster children for this. Both players handled the ball minimally (low risk of turnovers) and only shot high-percentage shots (in Thornton's case, open 3s; Dawkins was a little less discerning). Would you suggest that Thornton (ORtg off 133 last year) was a better offensive player than Dawkins (ORtg of 120)? And even in the case of Dawkins, would you suggest that he was a better offensive player than Jabari Parker (ORtg of 115)? Obviously not, right?

Well, the story is somewhat similar here. Jefferson's high ORtg is inflated by the fact that he's always been a tertiary scoring threat. He's opportunistic around the basket in getting garbage buckets sneaking behind/around the defense. But he almost never scores in an isolation/go-to setting (heck, he almost never shoots in that type of setting). He also rarely handles the ball, so his turnover risk is very low. So as long as he is mostly shooting open/putback layups and dunks, his ORtg is going to stay very high. Conversely, Brice Johnson was UNC's go-to scorer in the post whenever he was in the game. Though slight of build, he has a variety of moves around the basket. But by virtue of being the go-to offensive player in the post, he had to take tougher, more contested shots. This brought down his FG% and his efficiency.

I don't think anyone watching these two guys closely would really suggest that their offensive games are at all similar. Johnson, to this point in his career, has shown MUCH more of an offensive game than Jefferson. Looking at ORtg and efficiency is going to ignore the inherent difference and bias in favor of Jefferson (the low-usage, low-pressure scorer).

The two players are remarkably similar in their contributions outside of offense. But in terms of offensive game, Johnson has shown a much more diverse and capable skillset than Jefferson. And I don't think it's really close.

Kedsy
11-14-2014, 11:54 AM
I don't think anyone watching these two guys closely would really suggest that their offensive games are at all similar. Johnson, to this point in his career, has shown MUCH more of an offensive game than Jefferson. Looking at ORtg and efficiency is going to ignore the inherent difference and bias in favor of Jefferson (the low-usage, low-pressure scorer).

The two players are remarkably similar in their contributions outside of offense. But in terms of offensive game, Johnson has shown a much more diverse and capable skillset than Jefferson. And I don't think it's really close.

Yeah, I wasn't suggesting they had similar offensive games. I suggested that their overall stat profiles were similar and that their chances of entering the 2015 NBA Draft were similar (i.e., close to zero).

CDu
11-14-2014, 11:59 AM
Yeah, I wasn't suggesting they had similar offensive games. I suggested that their overall stat profiles were similar and that their chances of entering the 2015 NBA Draft were similar (i.e., close to zero).

I wouldn't say right now that their chances of entering the draft (and getting drafted) are similar. Johnson's chances are much better right now (by virtue of having a much more complete offensive game). Not necessarily super high, but I would say substantially better.

You asked why one player (Johnson) would be on scouts' radar and the other (Jefferson) not. Well, the reason is the dramatic differences in offensive skill set shown to date.

I would say, based on his play last year in a reserve role, that there's a very good chance that Johnson puts up 15+ ppg and 8+ rpg this year for UNC. If he does that, he'll absolutely be a threat to get drafted next summer.

Ichabod Drain
11-14-2014, 12:28 PM
It's officially not the off season anymore people. I'm ready for threads like this to go away.

SoCalDukeFan
11-14-2014, 12:37 PM
My short reply is that basically you are just plain wrong on Paige.

IMO, the main reason for the inability to sign other top players this year is due more to lack of potential playing time next year, and top guys want to know their gonna play, from the start, a lot.

While you follow unc-ch recruiting more closely than I, I do differ with this.

I think the top guys generally assume that they are better than everyone else and will play. They also probably think that the guys ahead of them will go pro, if they are really that good, if not, the recruit will beat them out for PT.

The two top recruits at the same position may not go to the same school but thats about it.

SoCal

Kedsy
11-14-2014, 12:48 PM
I would say, based on his play last year in a reserve role, that there's a very good chance that Johnson puts up 15+ ppg and 8+ rpg this year for UNC. If he does that, he'll absolutely be a threat to get drafted next summer.

If you say so. I can see Johnson in the 2016 draft, but it seems like crazy talk to me to say his chances of getting drafted in 2015 are anywhere north of remote.

I looked for similar players who declared for last year's draft as underclassmen. Best I could come up with were JMM, Khem Birch, and LaQuinton Ross, none of whom were drafted, and DeAndre Daniels, who was drafted in the second round (#37). Hard to see Brice Johnson having better prospects than any of those guys.

CDu
11-14-2014, 12:49 PM
While you follow unc-ch recruiting more closely than I, I do differ with this.

I think the top guys generally assume that they are better than everyone else and will play. They also probably think that the guys ahead of them will go pro, if they are really that good, if not, the recruit will beat them out for PT.

The two top recruits at the same position may not go to the same school but thats about it.

SoCal

Correct. If a glut of talent was really the reason that UNC wasn't getting top recruits, then how come Kentucky and Arizona (heck, even Duke) keep raking in elite players? Especially given that Williams is known for getting his recruits on the floor regardless of the number of bodies. There is something else going on.

CDu
11-14-2014, 01:05 PM
If you say so. I can see Johnson in the 2016 draft, but it seems like crazy talk to me to say his chances of getting drafted in 2015 are anywhere north of remote.

I looked for similar players who declared for last year's draft as underclassmen. Best I could come up with were JMM, Khem Birch, and LaQuinton Ross, none of whom were drafted, and DeAndre Daniels, who was drafted in the second round (#37). Hard to see Brice Johnson having better prospects than any of those guys.

McAdoo and Birch were far less skilled offensive players. Ross and Daniels are SF, so they are not really comparable. And I'd argue that Johnson is a much ore skilled offensive player than Daniels anyway.

I'm not saying that Johnson is definitely going to be a first round pick in 2015. But given what I've seen of him at UNC, and given what I've read of him from reasonably qualified scouts, and given Williams' tendencies as a coach to emphasize capable post scorers (heck, he got McAdoo 14ppg despite him having no offensive skill whatsoever) I would say Johnson's chances of being drafted are much better than those of Jefferson's chances (which really are basically 0%) right now.

That's not meant to be a knock on Jefferson at all. I love what he brings to the table and think he's a great fit for this year's team. It's just that Jefferson hasn't shown anything to suggest he's an NBA prospect yet, whereas Johnson has already shown a pretty polished offensive post game.

JasonEvans
11-14-2014, 01:39 PM
I think the following pretty much ends the Brice Johnson discussion


DraftExpress lists him as the 6th best junior prospect and the #33 pick in their 2015 mock
NBADraft.net has him as the 6th best junior and the #22 prospect in their 2015 mock
HoopsHype says he is the #20 pick in their 2015 mock
NBADraftRoom has him as the #18 pick in 2015

So, while some of you may not see pro potential in him, it is clear that he is very much on the NBA's radar and most folks consider him a likely 2015 draft pick. Obviously, how his season pans out will determine how true that is and everyone is entitled to their own opinion. But, to say right now that it is unlikely he will be a 2015 draft pick is just plain wrong.

-Jason "I hope he is not a 2015 pick because he has such a lousy season he has to stay at UNC" Evans

Wheat/"/"/"
11-14-2014, 01:54 PM
Correct. If a glut of talent was really the reason that UNC wasn't getting top recruits, then how come Kentucky and Arizona (heck, even Duke) keep raking in elite players? Especially given that Williams is known for getting his recruits on the floor regardless of the number of bodies. There is something else going on.

The academic scandal has definitely made next year's recruiting effort more difficult for Roy. He's said as much in articles I've seen.

But the depth at every position is also part of the reason for some of the misses, IMO. I doubt that there is a current player that will go league after this season. They have potential and the league will draft on that we know, but I think they stay.

UNC has not been getting the one and done guys, but they have been getting excellent players that have had to be groomed to the point of becoming elite and they will have experience. Look at the growth in the games of Meeks and Johnson. It's unlikely that there is a C/PF in the next class that would be able to come in and take their starting spot. And that's not even counting Hicks who is a maturing player with more skill than both of the starters and only a sophomore. UNC will have a senior in James that will deserve time too.

Guards Paige, Britt and Berry probably all stay... is there a PG recruit out there that can start above them? I doubt it.

Tokoto, Pinson and Jackson all likely stay next year as well on the wing...not much time available for a freshman there next season either.

UNC recruiting is fine, at the moment. If there are sanctions things will get tough.

BD80
11-14-2014, 04:31 PM
The academic scandal has definitely made next year's recruiting effort more difficult for Roy. He's said as much in articles I've seen.

... I doubt that there is a current player that will go league after this season. ...

They are confident they ol' roy won't be able to recruit over them. Their PT is safe.

Or, as Pinson would say: "Are PT is safe"