MBB: Duke v Presbyterian (Nov 14, 6 pm, ESPNU)

[Indoor66]

Is anyone going to discuss basketball?

[mattman91]

Is anyone going to discuss basketball?

Maybe in March. Duke is a football school.

[Troublemaker]

Is anyone going to discuss basketball?

No need to. As Presbyterian College knows all too well, Duke has already been predestined to go to Brooklyn for the Coaches vs Cancer semifinals. That said, hopefully our team continues to show an improved defense that makes Presbyterian ball-handlers wilt like TULIPs.

If any Presbyterian fans are reading this, know that you are allowed to cheer for your team in Cameron and not get kicked out.

[David Bunkley]

No need to. As Presbyterian College knows all too well, Duke has already been predestined to go to Brooklyn for the Coaches vs Cancer semifinals. That said, hopefully our team continues to show an improved defense that makes Presbyterian ball-handlers wilt like TULIPs.

If any Presbyterian fans are reading this, know that you are allowed to cheer for your team in Cameron and not get kicked out.

unlike that other "school"

[flyingdutchdevil]

It's finally here. It's finally here!

I admit that I was this excited last year as well, and I also had a great feeling about that team. But with this team, we can actually play defense! Maybe not top 10 defense, but hopefully top 30 (and certainly top 100). For me, that's a huge improvement and enough to keep me smiling through this awful Northeastern winter that is about to smack me in the face.

[MChambers]

Thanks for Indoor66 for starting this, although I think he departed from the prescribed forum format. Still, I think he deserves a spork for starting the thread.

I see that Presbyterian is predicted to finish 11th in its conference, and has a preseason rating of 311 from Pomeroy, so this should not be a tough test, especially in Cameron. Still, I'm looking forward to seeing if we can turn them over and also shoot effectively from the outside.

And I'm excited about the season, because I love athletic Duke teams that get after it on defense, and this looks like one of those. Hope I'm right.

[Clay Feet POF]

Is anyone going to discuss basketball?


I’m hoping to see the offensive interaction with Tyus and Grayson playing for an extended period. It might give a hint as to what the potential of this combo might be for next year. I’m assuming Tyus needs 1 more year to be NBA ready

[77devil]

I’m hoping to see the offensive interaction with Tyus and Grayson playing for an extended period. It might give a hint as to what the potential of this combo might be for next year. I’m assuming Tyus needs 1 more year to be NBA ready

I'm hoping to see Ol' Roy come over to throw out a Presbyterian fan.

http://sports.yahoo.com/ncaa/basketball/blog/the_dagger/post/Roy-Williams-kicks-out-heckling-fan-at-the-Dean-?urn=ncaab,208335

(Can't believe it's been five years.)

[bbosbbos]

But with this team, we can actually play defense! Maybe not top 10 defense, but hopefully top 30 (and certainly top 100). For me, that's a huge improvement and enough to keep me smiling through this awful Northeastern winter that is about to smack me in the face.

Buddy, how do you rank D before real games? What is your method? I am curious. :p

[flyingdutchdevil]

Buddy, how do you rank D before real games? What is your method? I am curious. :p

Personnel + Coach K + addition by subtraction = much better than last year.

You really think Coach K will have a crappy D two years in a row?

[Henderson]

Presbyterian is a tiny school, but they run football, basketball, baseball, and other intercollegiate athletic teams. Interesting factoid: Approximately 30% of all their students play intercollegiate athletics.

[jipops]

I’m hoping to see the offensive interaction with Tyus and Grayson playing for an extended period. It might give a hint as to what the potential of this combo might be for next year. I’m assuming Tyus needs 1 more year to be NBA ready

I'm trying not to interpret this the wrong way. :D

Potential for next year always has excitement to it, but has little to do with this game. I'm hoping for better offensive output from our wing guards Rasheed and Matt Jones, two guys we will likely lean on this season for perimeter scoring.

[ChillinDuke]

Is anyone going to discuss basketball?

Thank you for starting the thread. I meant to do this last night and forgot.

One of my favorite side jobs of basketball season is doing a little scouting on the under-the-radar teams early in the season. So without further ado...

The Blue Hose of Presbyterian come to town to take on our beloved Devils Friday night. Regarding the school, Presby is a private college in Clinton, SC with less than 1200 undergrads. And you thought Duke was small. They made the switch to D-1 in 2007.

More importantly, regarding the basketball team. First thing's first, the Hose enter Cameron having lost...no one. Virtually the entire team returns from last year's campaign, with the not-overly-notable exception being 5th-leading scorer Danny Herrera (7.9 ppg) who, as far as I can tell, is no longer with the team. So, returning experience: check.

Returning talent: not quite.

Last year, the Hose went 6-26 overall and 2-14 in the Big South conference, ranked 28th out of 32 conferences by conference RPI. For whatever preseason KenPom is worth: #321, sandwiched by behemoths Prairie View A&M and Kennesaw St. And picked 9th out of 11 in the preseason by relative unknown SportsNetwork.com. So not good, by these metrics.

That said, their roster has some size at 4 players listed 6'8" or taller, including a relatively untested 7-foot, 235-pound redshirt sophomore in Jake Campbell (only 5mpg last year). However, similar to Campbell, this size doesn't seem to get much run outside of 6'8", 265-lb "center" William Truss, who started every game and averaged almost a double-double at 10.9 pts, 9.0 rebs, and 1.6 rejections per. He is a senior.

Outside of Truss, the rest of the top 5 returning minute-getters from last year are listed as guards. Top scorer (and statistically their best player), 6'5" guard Jordan Downing is a redshirt senior from Huntersville, NC; he averaged 20.2 last year along with 4.5 boards, almost 2 dimes, and a pick per game. He started all 32 as well and led the conference in scoring. Needless to say, he'll be the one to watch.

PG appears to be 6'4", 220-lb sophomore Reggie Dillard out of Greensboro who returns from 12.1, 3.7, almost 4, and about a pick. He started 29 of the 30 he played in.

Markus Terry and Austin Anderson round out the other two of the top 5 alluded to above, at 6'2" and 6'5", respectively. Both are sophomores. 8.4 and 4.5 ppg, respectively.

Ed Drew and Will Adams round out the returnees who averaged over 10mpg. 6'5" and 5'10".

Three point bombers? None to speak of except for, you guessed it, Downing who fired almost 7 per game last year at 36.7%. Actually, Dillard shoots it from deep too at 3.8 attempts per at a very nice 42.1% clip.

The Hose add five freshmen. Can't seem to find any quick rundowns on these guys.

Head Coach is Gregg Nibert.

http://www.gobluehose.com/SportSelect.dbml?&DB_OEM_ID=18100&SPID=10747&SPSID=89806

http://www.nmnathletics.com/fls/18100/stats/mbasketball/2013/teamcume.htm

http://www.bigsouthsports.com/entries/big-south-announces-2014-15-mens-basketball-preseason-all-conference-team

- Chillin

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Basketball season? It snuck up on me!

Let's Go Duke!

[bbosbbos]

Will the Fairfield game on Saturday be on TWC TV? I am in Cary, NC. According to GoDukeCom it is only on espn3. If it is not on TV I will try to buy a ticket to CIS. ;)

[Troublemaker]

I'm hoping to see Ol' Roy come over to throw out a Presbyterian fan.

http://sports.yahoo.com/ncaa/basketball/blog/the_dagger/post/Roy-Williams-kicks-out-heckling-fan-at-the-Dean-?urn=ncaab,208335

(Can't believe it's been five years.)

I hope that Presbyterian fan shows up on Friday and enjoys his free will in Cameron to make the exact same cheer and not be kicked out.




You really think Coach K will have a crappy D two years in a row?

Wasn't that your opinion, too, as recently as like a week ago? It's been a nice couple of exhibition games, eh?

I think we have a steak bet regarding whether Duke finishes top 30 in defense. You're off the hook for that for the same reason Wheat got off the hook for another bet. It's not easy for me to make it to Durham right now.

Enjoy our top 30 (and realistically, probably top 15) defense this year

[flyingdutchdevil]

Wasn't that your opinion, too, as recently as like a week ago? It's been a nice couple of exhibition games, eh?

I think we have a steak bet regarding whether Duke finishes top 30 in defense. You're off the hook for that for the same reason Wheat got off the hook for another bet. It's not easy for me to make it to Durham right now.

Enjoy our top 30 (and realistically, probably top 15) defense this year

:D

A few things:

1) It's true that I was down on Duke's D this year. That's because I didn't really understand the power of Winslow (as good as advertised on D) and Okafor (potentially better than advertised on D). I love the addition of M Jones, as it really shows Coach K's commitment on D. As much as Matt "complements" the O, I really think his value is D. The exhibitions really helped. I think Mich St. will either raise or decrease my confidence about the D.

2) Like I said, maybe top 10, hopefully top 30, definitely top 100.

3) Steak dinner is absolutely on the table. I bet, and I'll own up to it. It's a win-win for me, regardless.

[Native]

Will the Fairfield game on Saturday be on TWC TV? I am in Cary, NC. According to GoDukeCom it is only on espn3. If it is not on TV I will try to buy a ticket to CIS. ;)

I believe it's only on ESPN3 and Blue Devil Network. Come on over to Cameron!

[CDu]

Personnel + Coach K + addition by subtraction = much better than last year.

You really think Coach K will have a crappy D two years in a row?

I think a big variable not being presented in that equation is "Thibsball". It appears that Coach K has taken a play out of Thibs' defensive playbook in icing screens rather than hedging screens. The idea is to prevent dribble penetration and encourage long jumpshots by the opposing big man. Icing the screens also takes a lot of the burden off of the big man because he now doesn't have to cover nearly as much ground as with hedging. And you reduce the likelihood of getting a little guy stuck guarding a big man in the post. So two of the biggest weaknesses for our defense get minimized with one strategic switch.

I guess you can lump "icing" under the "Coach K" heading, but I think it's more specific than just "Coach K being Coach K."

[MChambers]

I think Mich St. will either raise or decrease my confidence about the D.
I think MSU is going to struggle on offense this year. They lost most of their firepower. So I wouldn't take too much from that game.

[duke09hms]

I think a big variable not being presented in that equation is "Thibsball". It appears that Coach K has taken a play out of Thibs' defensive playbook in icing screens rather than hedging screens. The idea is to prevent dribble penetration and encourage long jumpshots by the opposing big man. Icing the screens also takes a lot of the burden off of the big man because he now doesn't have to cover nearly as much ground as with hedging. And you reduce the likelihood of getting a little guy stuck guarding a big man in the post. So two of the biggest weaknesses for our defense get minimized with one strategic switch.

I guess you can lump "icing" under the "Coach K" heading, but I think it's more specific than just "Coach K being Coach K."

I think this will be a huge part of our defense if we can get the ICE down on the screen and roll. Hedging works great if the big man is amazing at it, like Zoubek/Thomas. But if not done perfectly, it gives up easy middle penetration by the ball-handler for easy layups/dump-offs, like we've seen the past few years. Particularly in the Louisville game when Pitino ran an initial screen on our big man before setting another screen for the guard. Our big was late getting there, and their 2 guards got easy basket after easy basket.

Ice forces the ballhandler to the sideline but gives up a 3 or a long 2 by the opposing big man. I think it's much better suited for this year's team, especially with so many freshmen getting playing time.

The Bulls use this to great effect, often having the best or close to the best defenses in the league. If K can make such a drastic change in his defensive philosophy from his time with Thibs, then wow his flexibility and willingness to learn are truly admirable.

[Edouble]

I hope that Presbyterian fan shows up on Friday and enjoys his free will in Cameron to make the exact same cheer and not be kicked out.

I doubt Deon Thompson will be shooting free throws at this game though. :confused:

[mr. synellinden]

I think this will be a huge part of our defense if we can get the ICE down on the screen and roll. Hedging works great if the big man is amazing at it, like Zoubek/Thomas. But if not done perfectly, it gives up easy middle penetration by the ball-handler for easy layups/dump-offs, like we've seen the past few years. Particularly in the Louisville game when Pitino ran an initial screen on our big man before setting another screen for the guard. Our big was late getting there, and their 2 guards got easy basket after easy basket.

Ice forces the ballhandler to the sideline but gives up a 3 or a long 2 by the opposing big man. I think it's much better suited for this year's team, especially with so many freshmen getting playing time.

The Bulls use this to great effect, often having the best or close to the best defenses in the league. If K can make such a drastic change in his defensive philosophy from his time with Thibs, then wow his flexibility and willingness to learn are truly admirable.


I recommend this video (http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2013/10/4/4804278/nba-defense-pick-and-roll-ice) if you want to understand icing the pick and roll better:

http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2013/10/4/4804278/nba-defense-pick-and-roll-ice

[duke74]

I recommend this video (http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2013/10/4/4804278/nba-defense-pick-and-roll-ice) if you want to understand icing the pick and roll better:

http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2013/10/4/4804278/nba-defense-pick-and-roll-ice

Showing my ignorance, but thank you! I finally understand what the posters have been talking about for months...hedging v icing....

[elvis14]

Showing my ignorance, but thank you! I finally understand what the posters have been talking about for months...hedging v icing....

You're not alone. A few weeks ago I went and found a video on icing screens so I'd know what everyone was talking about.

Wish I could go to CIS Friday night to see this game. I've actually been on Presbyterian's campus...I took my SAT's there many years ago. My parents live in Greenwood, SC which is about 1/2 an hour from Clinton. I pass right by Presbyterian every time I go home.

I am so geeked about the season starting. I can't wait to see how this year's team plays. As always...it's going to be very interesting!

[OldPhiKap]

You're not alone. A few weeks ago I went and found a video on icing screens so I'd know what everyone was talking about.

Wish I could go to CIS Friday night to see this game. I've actually been on Presbyterian's campus...I took my SAT's there many years ago. My parents live in Greenwood, SC which is about 1/2 an hour from Clinton. I pass right by Presbyterian every time I go home.

I am so geeked about the season starting. I can't wait to see how this year's team plays. As always...it's going to be very interesting!

PC has a very nice campus and the alum i know are good folks. Other than this game, I wish them luck as they continue their transition up to their new(ish) league.

[Troublemaker]

You're not alone. A few weeks ago I went and found a video on icing screens so I'd know what everyone was talking about.


I'm still looking for the perfect single video on it.

This is my favorite so far: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sOw1s3cBjOk

Shows how icing is accomplished vs both middle and sideline ball screens and also on dribble handoffs. Shows how icing is vulnerable (pick and pop big man) and how to handle (switching and hedging).

And he shows all these things using the Bulls themselves. And Boozer makes a couple of plays in the video.

I'd say this video is an 8 on a scale of 1 to 10. The negative is that it's narrated by "Coach Daniel" who sounds like a 15-yr-old kid

[uh_no]

Hopefully Quinn, Grayson, and our other guards will be able to make it rain....


ON THEM HOSE!!!!!


I'll see myself out.

[duke09hms]

I recommend this video (http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2013/10/4/4804278/nba-defense-pick-and-roll-ice) if you want to understand icing the pick and roll better:

http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2013/10/4/4804278/nba-defense-pick-and-roll-ice

Sadly his example of the Heat's aggressive hedging getting picked apart by the Spurs describes Duke's defensive strategy perfectly these last few years.

[Newton_14]

:D

A few things:

1) It's true that I was down on Duke's D this year. That's because I didn't really understand the power of Winslow (as good as advertised on D) and Okafor (potentially better than advertised on D). I love the addition of M Jones, as it really shows Coach K's commitment on D. As much as Matt "complements" the O, I really think his value is D. The exhibitions really helped. I think Mich St. will either raise or decrease my confidence about the D.

2) Like I said, maybe top 10, hopefully top 30, definitely top 100.

3) Steak dinner is absolutely on the table. I bet, and I'll own up to it. It's a win-win for me, regardless.

One other thing on that... I think you are going to be quite surprised at how well Tyus plays defense. I love his stance and how he keeps his hands extremely low in that stance and is showing a great ability to use that to get a lot of poke aways and steals. Having seen him in person 3 times now, he is not nearly as small in stature and folks said. He is not a little guy. Same qualifier of course that we have to see him play against Top 25 opponents before we will know his abilities for sure.

I have been struck at how much disruption this team causes in both halfcourt defense and full court. They all have been good at getting hands or fingertips on passes disrupting the timing an flow of the opponent. Very refreshing. If they can sustain that against quality opponents it will bode well for them. Last years squad had none of those abilities even against the weak opponents in the exhibition games so I feel the excitement you and some of the rest of us have with regards to potentibifal defense ability of this team is very warranted as of right now.

The competition stiffens in a hurry so we won't have to wait long to see if they can sustain it against good teams.

I also think the strategy of icing screens has so far shown to be a very big help on causing congestion in the halfcourt and preventing the ability of opposing guards to get free runs down the lane to the rack to score themselves or dish for an easy bucket. I am really loving that strategy thus far. Give up that long 2 pointer all game every game in my opinion. High risk, little reward.

[Troublemaker]

Sadly his example of the Heat's aggressive hedging getting picked apart by the Spurs describes Duke's defensive strategy perfectly these last few years.

Well, "these last few years" include Duke being ranked really high in defense when Ryan Kelly and Kyrie Irving were 100% and a national championship team in 2010. And the Heat have been ranked pretty high on defense in the NBA, too.

That said, I like the icing tactical change. The NCAA implemented freedom of movement rule changes/emphases last season which mimicked what that NBA did about 10 years ago. Over that 10 year timeframe, the one coach that everyone in the NBA will point to as being a defensive guru under these new conditions is Thibs, first as an assistant with the Rockets and Celtics, and now as the Bulls coach. A big, big part of what Thibs does and has popularized around the NBA is icing.

[ACCBBallFan]

Showing my ignorance, but thank you! I finally understand what the posters have been talking about for months...hedging v icing....
Me 2. Ice now makes sense to me.

[UrinalCake]

Things I'll be looking for:
- Rasheed to regain some of his mojo
- Oak to go beast mode on these guys! I haven't seen him dominate yet, except at C2C

Also, I'm not sure how many people know this but the grad student ushers are allowing all grad students to bring up to four guests to the games on Friday and Saturday (as well as a few others before the holiday break). So if you're interested in going, find a grad student buddy who can get you in. I'll be there!

[rsvman]

So the thread title is misleading. I have ESPNU but the game is not going to be on.
Is there anywhere to see the game other than from the seats at CIS?

[Duvall]

So the thread title is misleading. I have ESPNU but the game is not going to be on.
Is there anywhere to see the game other than from the seats at CIS?

What makes you say the game won't be on ESPNU?

[mgtr]

Really? Here in the Greenville-Spartanburg SC area, Duke-Presbyterian will be on ESPNU big as life (Directv). I haven't checked, but I would bet that it will be in Florida as well. What are they showing in your area instead?

[rsvman]

My bad. Please ignore my stupidity.

Game will be shown on ESPNU here, too. I was looking at the wrong time.

Sorry.

[slower]

My bad. Please ignore my stupidity.

Game will be shown on ESPNU here, too. I was looking at the wrong time.

Sorry.

One more incident like that and you're on double-secret probation, pal.

[rasputin]

One more incident like that and you're on double-secret probation, pal.

rsvman was already on double-secret probation, but nobody knew it.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Eleven hours til tipoff!

Go Duke!

[dukebluesincebirth]

Already hyped!! Been waiting on this day since March! Let's go Devils!

[Indoor66]

Recorder is set; mind is set; I'm psyched! :cool::p:o

[Duke3517]

I am ready for Duke's juniors and seniors to help these young freshman into developing under the Duke way. I am really eager to see how well these freshman play defense. Are they buying into the system or are they only worried about their stock? I am really looking forward to this season!

[Kedsy]

Presbyterian projects to be a really bad team. Does anyone expect to learn more about this Duke team than we learned in the exhibitions? I suppose it's another data point, and I don't want to anger the weuxf gods, but I expect it to be a lot closer to a third exhibition than to an actual game against a tough Division I opponent.

[sagegrouse]

Presbyterian projects to be a really bad team. Does anyone expect to learn more about this Duke team than we learned in the exhibitions? I suppose it's another data point, and I don't want to anger the weuxf gods, but I expect it to be a lot closer to a third exhibition than to an actual game against a tough Division I opponent.

You are probably right, but, according to Julio's report, PC has some size -- which will be a good workout for Jahlil and Marshall.

To wit:


A lot of schools at this level don't have much size, but Presbyterian has a bit of size and bulk too: Jake Campbell (RSo) is 7-0 and 235; Stephen Osu is a 6-9, 260 lb. freshman, and William Truss is a 6-8, 260 lb. senior.

Campbell didn't play much last year but big guys develop at their own pace.

Truss is a different story: he averaged 10.9 ppg and 9 rebounds. That's pretty good no matter where you play.

[elvis14]

Presbyterian projects to be a really bad team. Does anyone expect to learn more about this Duke team than we learned in the exhibitions? I suppose it's another data point, and I don't want to anger the weuxf gods, but I expect it to be a lot closer to a third exhibition than to an actual game against a tough Division I opponent.

I haven't seen the exhibitions so, yes, I'm expecting to learn a great deal. Reading DBR and learning about the team is great but there's no substitute for watching the game and seeing how things flow and how they players play off of each other, etc. So, although I expect it to be a total blow out, it's my first chance to see the team in action and I'm very excited. I do expect that we'll learn much more about the team when we play Michigan State.

[Ichabod Drain]

Presbyterian projects to be a really bad team. Does anyone expect to learn more about this Duke team than we learned in the exhibitions? I suppose it's another data point, and I don't want to anger the weuxf gods, but I expect it to be a lot closer to a third exhibition than to an actual game against a tough Division I opponent.

I don't expect to learn a whole lot until Tuesday night. One thing I would look at is Presbyterian has a 6'5" guard, Jordan Downing, who averaged over 20 ppg last year. Our perimeter defense against him will be something I'll be keeping an eye on.

[Troublemaker]

Presbyterian projects to be a really bad team. Does anyone expect to learn more about this Duke team than we learned in the exhibitions? I suppose it's another data point, and I don't want to anger the weuxf gods, but I expect it to be a lot closer to a third exhibition than to an actual game against a tough Division I opponent.

Learning isn't the primary goal of watching Duke play basketball anyway. Being entertained is.

This team looks like it could be one of the most entertaining teams we've ever had with the way these players share the ball, push the ball in transition, and get after it on defense.

This season, I'm going to try not to miss even one game for any reason.

[CDu]

Presbyterian projects to be a really bad team. Does anyone expect to learn more about this Duke team than we learned in the exhibitions? I suppose it's another data point, and I don't want to anger the weuxf gods, but I expect it to be a lot closer to a third exhibition than to an actual game against a tough Division I opponent.

A few reasons to be more excited about this game than the exhibitions in spite of the low quality of competition:

1. Tonight's game actually counts, so it will be fun to see them in action as they start accruing meaningful data.
2. Many folks didn't pay for insider access to watch the exhibitions. So if you didn't get to see the exhibitions, this is the first time you'll have seen this group play.
3. While Presbyterian is not going to be good, they are still probably better than the foes we faced in the exhibitions. So while it will be almost certainly a blowout, it'll be a blowout against a better (if only marginally better) opponent.

[Kedsy]

Learning isn't the primary goal of watching Duke play basketball anyway. Being entertained is.

This team looks like it could be one of the most entertaining teams we've ever had with the way these players share the ball, push the ball in transition, and get after it on defense.

This season, I'm going to try not to miss even one game for any reason.

I totally agree with that. I've set my DVR and I'm excited to watch the game. As I was excited to watch the exhibition games (I paid for the BDN+ for the first time ever). I was just reacting to posts saying, e.g., "I'm really excited to see how well these freshmen play defense," or similar declarations.

In other words, it'll be fun to watch but we won't see much that'll help us evaluate the team's chances or ceiling going forward.

[DukieTiger]

Presbyterian projects to be a really bad team. Does anyone expect to learn more about this Duke team than we learned in the exhibitions? I suppose it's another data point, and I don't want to anger the weuxf gods, but I expect it to be a lot closer to a third exhibition than to an actual game against a tough Division I opponent.

Well, KenPom projects PC at #321 (out of 351 teams), so you're probably right that this will not be much different from the exhibition games (KP projects a 30+ point Duke win, btw.) Further, he projects them to have an absolutely abysmal defense- ranked #340 and giving up around 1.1 pts/possession. Last year, they gave up an astounding 1.18 pts/poss. That's really bad.

Looking at their team from last year, it seems as though they give up a lot of offensive rebounds and that they turn the ball over a lot. Their two PGs turn the ball over 22.3 (Reggie Dillard) and 30.7 percent (Austin Anderson) of the time. Teams also shoot well against them, which is not surprising. So there is perhaps not a lot to take away if Duke forces a lot of TOs, crashes the offensive boards with Jah/Amile/MP3/JW/Semi, and shoots at a high clip. I would say we can expect that to happen.

However, I will say that a strength for PC last year (and I believe they return their whole team) was keeping opponents off of the FT line. They were 4th nationally, holding opponents to a 28.3 FT rate. For perspective, Duke's opponents had a 40.8 FT rate last year (FT Rate being the ratio of FTA/FGA). So PC's opponents don't attempt a high volume of free throws. Apart from intangible things like focus/intensity/effort, if there is a takeaway from this game for me, it will be how well Duke does at getting to the FT line.

Against Central Missouri, Duke's FT rate was 53.4. Okafor and Winslow combined for 15 FT attempts in just over 40 combined minutes. It seems like they will be guys who will put pressure on the defense, drawing a lot of fouls in the process. Additionally, Rasheed and Amile both had FT rates for last season that were over 50 (that is, for every two FGA, they took a FT). So Duke should have a lot of guys on this team who get to the line, and it would appear that this team could get back to the classic "Duke makes more free throws than their opponents attempt".

If we continue to get to the FT line at a relatively high rate, even against a team that keeps opponents off of the line, then I think we can learn at least *one thing about our team tonight.

*Small side note: PC also looks to play a variety of defenses, so it will be interesting to see how Duke responds when they mix up defensive schemes. Can we hit the curveball?

[Neals384]

I think a big variable not being presented in that equation is "Thibsball". It appears that Coach K has taken a play out of Thibs' defensive playbook in icing screens rather than hedging screens. The idea is to prevent dribble penetration and encourage long jumpshots by the opposing big man. Icing the screens also takes a lot of the burden off of the big man because he now doesn't have to cover nearly as much ground as with hedging. And you reduce the likelihood of getting a little guy stuck guarding a big man in the post. So two of the biggest weaknesses for our defense get minimized with one strategic switch.

I guess you can lump "icing" under the "Coach K" heading, but I think it's more specific than just "Coach K being Coach K."

Less hedging? Now that's something to get excited about!

[DukieInBrasil]

Well, KenPom projects PC at #321 (out of 351 teams), so you're probably right that this will not be much different from the exhibition games (KP projects a 30+ point Duke win, btw.) Further, he projects them to have an absolutely abysmal defense- ranked #340 and giving up around 1.1 pts/possession. Last year, they gave up an astounding 1.18 pts/poss. That's really bad.

Looking at their team from last year, it seems as though they give up a lot of offensive rebounds and that they turn the ball over a lot. Their two PGs turn the ball over 22.3 (Reggie Dillard) and 30.7 percent (Austin Anderson) of the time. Teams also shoot well against them, which is not surprising. So there is perhaps not a lot to take away if Duke forces a lot of TOs, crashes the offensive boards with Jah/Amile/MP3/JW/Semi, and shoots at a high clip. I would say we can expect that to happen.



*Small side note: PC also looks to play a variety of defenses, so it will be interesting to see how Duke responds when they mix up defensive schemes. Can we hit the curveball?

So this is something i've been wondering about: does that stat mean that the PGs turned the ball over 22.3 and 30.7% of all PC turns (ie. out of 100 PC turns 22.3 and 30.7 were committed by those 2) or that they turned the ball over on 22.3 and 30.7% of PC possessions (ie. out of 100 possessions they committed 22.3 and 30.7 turns)? If it's the latter, then that is truly terrible, indicating that PC turned it over on over half of their possessions (just from their PGs!). If it's the former, i don't see how it's a useful stat, in that if they have a very low turnover rate ie 1 turn per 100 possessions, then it doesn't really matter if one committed 22.3% and the other committed 30.7% because that would still be less than 1 turn per 100 possessions, and undoubtedly less than 1 turn per game.

[Duke3517]

According to dbr boards this team shouldn't be a problem for Duke. Can you see Coach K changing the lineups up? Have almost all scholarship athletes playing and no one getting more then 20 minutes of pt?

[DukieTiger]

So this is something i've been wondering about: does that stat mean that the PGs turned the ball over 22.3 and 30.7% of all PC turns (ie. out of 100 PC turns 22.3 and 30.7 were committed by those 2) or that they turned the ball over on 22.3 and 30.7% of PC possessions (ie. out of 100 possessions they committed 22.3 and 30.7 turns)? If it's the latter, then that is truly terrible, indicating that PC turned it over on over half of their possessions (just from their PGs!). If it's the former, i don't see how it's a useful stat, in that if they have a very low turnover rate ie 1 turn per 100 possessions, then it doesn't really matter if one committed 22.3% and the other committed 30.7% because that would still be less than 1 turn per 100 possessions, and undoubtedly less than 1 turn per game.

Great question! I'm not an expert, but I believe the answer to your question would be neither of your options. It's not measuring their turnover % in relation to team turnovers or to team possessions... Rather it's measuring the individual player's turnover frequency relative to other things that player does. I believe what it is saying is that for every 100 possessions Player A is an active part of (meaning player A either takes a shot, gets an assist, or turns the all over), he turns the ball over 22 times. So it's relative to what else that player does, not what the team does.

It also occurs to me that these numbers in particular aren't the most helpful without anything to compare them to. For comparison- Quinn, Sheed, Jabari and Hood all had turnover percentages in the teens last year. They all handled the ball a good bit. Tyler Thornton was at 21.9%. So if it helps, compare your memories of Quinn having the ball to TT last year (and this isn't to beat up on Ty at all). It's a significant difference.

Finally, if this helps further clarify turnover percentage for a player, here is KenPom's official definition:

"This is the percentage of personal possessions used on turnovers. It can be highly dependent on context. Players that do little passing or dribbling (i.e. spot-up shooters) will have an artificially deflated TO%."

[Kedsy]

So this is something i've been wondering about: does that stat mean that the PGs turned the ball over 22.3 and 30.7% of all PC turns (ie. out of 100 PC turns 22.3 and 30.7 were committed by those 2) or that they turned the ball over on 22.3 and 30.7% of PC possessions (ie. out of 100 possessions they committed 22.3 and 30.7 turns)?

Turnover percentage = 100 * TOV / (FGA + 0.44 * FTA + TOV)

Assuming that a possession either ends with a shot, a foul, or a turnover, it makes sense. For a team, it measures the number of turnovers per 100 possessions.

For a player, it doesn't really measure that, because a player might get the ball and pass to someone else, either for an assist or just moving the ball. And as far as I can tell, assists (or other passes) aren't part of the TOV% equation. Thus, a pass-first PG who doesn't shoot much is "penalized' by a higher TOV% than he deserves. Basically, on the individual level it's just a way to measure turnovers on a consistent, minute-independent basis. It probably shouldn't be relied on independently of other stats (e.g., a/to ratio, etc.).

[Kedsy]

It also occurs to me that these numbers in particular aren't the most helpful without anything to compare them to. For comparison- Quinn, Sheed, Jabari and Hood all had turnover percentages in the teens last year. They all handled the ball a good bit. Tyler Thornton was at 21.9%. So if it helps, compare your memories of Quinn having the ball to TT last year (and this isn't to beat up on Ty at all). It's a significant difference.

As I alluded in my last post, I believe the reason Tyler's TOV% is so high is because he didn't shoot the ball very much. It doesn't really mean what you'd think it should mean.

[Troublemaker]

Have almost all scholarship athletes playing and no one getting more then 20 minutes of pt?

Sean Kelly and Nick Pagliuca would love this plan. But the answer is no.

[CDu]

Turnover percentage = 100 * TOV / (FGA + 0.44 * FTA + TOV)

Assuming that a possession either ends with a shot, a foul, or a turnover, it makes sense. For a team, it measures the number of turnovers per 100 possessions.

For a player, it doesn't really measure that, because a player might get the ball and pass to someone else, either for an assist or just moving the ball. And as far as I can tell, assists (or other passes) aren't part of the TOV% equation. Thus, a pass-first PG who doesn't shoot much is "penalized' by a higher TOV% than he deserves. Basically, on the individual level it's just a way to measure turnovers on a consistent, minute-independent basis. It probably shouldn't be relied on independently of other stats (e.g., a/to ratio, etc.).

If that's the formula (and I don't doubt that it is), then I would agree that turnover % is a pretty useless metric when viewed in isolation. I'm not sure why turnover percentage doesn't at least take assists into account as they are also ends of a possession. That would definitely help to alleviate the issue of overestimating turnover percentage for pass-first, primary ballhandling players.

[Kedsy]

If that's the formula (and I don't doubt that it is), then I would agree that turnover % is a pretty useless metric when viewed in isolation. I'm not sure why turnover percentage doesn't at least take assists into account as they are also ends of a possession. That would definitely help to alleviate the issue of overestimating turnover percentage for pass-first, primary ballhandling players.

I agree. I didn't make up the stat. It's possible there's a different measurement that does it correctly for individuals (instead of just using the team formula), but if so I don't know what it's called. I checked some TOV% numbers on basketball-reference.com, and they appear to conform to the formula I listed above.


I'm not sure why turnover percentage doesn't at least take assists into account as they are also ends of a possession.

I think it's because assists are not the end of the possession for the team. A lot of these possession-oriented statistics were invented to measure team success. The same formulas are used for individual players probably to avoid the confusion of using different formulas for the "same" stat.

I'm not sure how much thought has been devoted to this in the websites that calculate this information. Probably more thought has gone into it inside NBA GM's offices, but I get the impression they keep a lot of their formulas private and proprietary.

[DukieTiger]

If that's the formula (and I don't doubt that it is), then I would agree that turnover % is a pretty useless metric when viewed in isolation. I'm not sure why turnover percentage doesn't at least take assists into account as they are also ends of a possession. That would definitely help to alleviate the issue of overestimating turnover percentage for pass-first, primary ballhandling players.

Yeah, when I was looking at it, I was assuming that he was counting assists. When I did a little more reading, it does look like Kedsy is right and that it's only counting shot attempts and turnovers.

That does explain why Austin Anderson's TO% was so high. He turns it over 30% of the time, but only shoots on about 11% of his team's possessions while in the game. He also assists on about 1/4 of their made baskets. So he seems to fit the definition of a pass-first player, although not a very efficient one, as his ORtg is in the 80s- which is not very good/efficient.

Reggie Dillard shoots over 20% of his team's shots when on the floor, so he's less of a pass-first guy. He turns it over 20% of the time, so that's not super-extreme but isn't insignificant. He also isn't the most efficient player, with an ORtg in the 80s also.

Thanks to Kedsy for helping clarify about those numbers. It seems as though they are not as turnover-prone as I first thought, although they still turn had an above-average rate of turnovers as a team last year, and neither PG they have is terribly efficient.

[MarkD83]

Presbyterian projects to be a really bad team. Does anyone expect to learn more about this Duke team than we learned in the exhibitions? I suppose it's another data point, and I don't want to anger the weuxf gods, but I expect it to be a lot closer to a third exhibition than to an actual game against a tough Division I opponent.

I read through the other posts after this one and there is one thing that was suggested but not specifically mentioned that we will learn.

Tonight we will learn how Coach K will coach this team. I do not expect an even disribution of minutes. In fact, even in a blow out I expect us to see the players which Cocah K considers to be the top 5 players getting 28-30 minutes, the next 3 10-15 minutes and we will learn who really are the 9th and 10th players in the rotation as of today.

[DukieTiger]

I agree. I didn't make up the stat. It's possible there's a different measurement that does it correctly for individuals (instead of just using the team formula), but if so I don't know what it's called. I checked some TOV% numbers on basketball-reference.com, and they appear to conform to the formula I listed above.



I think it's because assists are not the end of the possession for the team. A lot of these possession-oriented statistics were invented to measure team success. The same formulas are used for individual players probably to avoid the confusion of using different formulas for the "same" stat.

I'm not sure how much thought has been devoted to this in the websites that calculate this information. Probably more thought has gone into it inside NBA GM's offices, but I get the impression they keep a lot of their formulas private and proprietary.

In case anyone's interested, here is Ken Pomeroy's explanation (http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/help_with_team_page/) of some of his formulas/stats.

What you said makes sense Kedsy. If there was a separate formula for players TO%, it would make sense to include assists. But obviously adding assists to the team formula would not accurately reflect the number of possessions, since it would count some of them twice (Ast + FGM).

[CDu]

In case anyone's interested, here is Ken Pomeroy's explanation (http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/help_with_team_page/) of some of his formulas/stats.

What you said makes sense Kedsy. If there was a separate formula for players TO%, it would make sense to include assists. But obviously adding assists to the team formula would not accurately reflect the number of possessions, since it would count some of them twice (Ast + FGM).

Right. I mean, I totally get why you wouldn't include it in the team metric. But it seems so clearly a flawed formula in the individual metric.

I guess that brings up the point though of not looking at just one metric. Gotta take more into account. It's sort of like looking at ORtg and ignoring usage rate as the two are very highly correlated. Looking only at one without the other (and probably without even more stats beyond that) is likely to lead to misleading conclusions.

[budwom]

Had K been willing to schedule Brandeis on Sunday he could've gone for the rare religious trifecta to open the season. Not sure what the man was thinking.

[BD80]

Presbyterian projects to be a really bad team. Does anyone expect to learn more about this Duke team than we learned in the exhibitions? I suppose it's another data point, and I don't want to anger the weuxf gods, but I expect it to be a lot closer to a third exhibition than to an actual game against a tough Division I opponent.


Had K been willing to schedule Brandeis on Sunday he could've gone for the rare religious trifecta to open the season. Not sure what the man was thinking.

Having another game 24 hours after Presbyterian might alter the substitution pattern.

The Saturday/Tuesday turnaround for Fairfield-MSU is good preparation for the ACC regular season

[subzero02]

We are favored by 35... The o/u is 147

[sagegrouse]

We are favored by 35... The o/u is 147

Lessee ... looking for calculator ... 91-56?

[budwom]

Should Duke manage to prevail by such a margin, I will find it most interesting to see how many minutes the last guys off the bench get.
For a variety of reasons...

[Duvall]

Should Duke manage to prevail by such a margin, I will find it most interesting to see how many minutes the last guys off the bench get.
For a variety of reasons...

With two games in 28 hours and three in five days, I wouldn't take *too* much from the bench minutes tonight and tomorrow.

[subzero02]

I am interested in seeing the play of Matt Jones, Cook and Sulaimon... And especially The Oak.

[subzero02]

We are 38 point favorites now...

[riverside6]

Live tempo-based stats for Duke/Presbyterian, starters posted...

http://www.scacchoops.com/presbyterian-at-duke-basketball-live-stats-11142014

Duke starting T. Jones, Cook, Winslow, Jefferson, and Okafor

[timmy c]

If you had Quinn in the starting lineup for game #1, you were right. Let's go Duke!

[TNDukeFan]

Neither firstrow nor VIP seems to be airing NCAA hoops tonight - anyone have an online link?

[flyingdutchdevil]

If you had Quinn in the starting lineup for game #1, you were right. Let's go Duke!

I did a few weeks ago. But my line-up was Cook, Sulaimon, Winslow, Amile, the Oak.

Samsonite - I was way off!

[elvis14]

Two Minutes!!! Whoo hoooo!!!! Yes! Let's go Duke!

[timmy c]

I did a few weeks ago. But my line-up was Cook, Sulaimon, Winslow, Amile, the Oak.

Samsonite - I was way off!

4 out of 5 ain't bad.

[MCFinARL]

Is there no in-game chat for this game?

[dukelifer]

Is there no in-game chat for this game?

Nice start by the boys. Inside and out- pressure D.

[Bob Green]

Winslow is very quickly becoming my favorite player.

[timmy c]

I don't see any chat. But the freshman look like they can score.. Tyus with 5, Winslow 3, Oak 4. Presby 2.

[JBDuke]

Is there no in-game chat for this game?

I'm in the chat room now. Had a little trouble getting it to load, but it worked fine on the second attempt.

Come join me. It's lonely in here!

[MCFinARL]

Winslow is very quickly becoming my favorite player.

Yes--I think we are going to enjoy watching him.


I don't see any chat. But the freshman look like they can score.. Tyus with 5, Winslow 3, Oak 4. Presby 2.

Yes, they do. Nice to see a big man with good hands.

[Tucknut]

Looks like Duke haters are going to have a lot to cry about this year. :)

[MCFinARL]

I'm in the chat room now. Had a little trouble getting it to load, but it worked fine on the second attempt.

Come join me. It's lonely in here!

Where is the link--I can't find it where it used to be.

[dchen09]

I'm in the chat room now. Had a little trouble getting it to load, but it worked fine on the second attempt.

Come join me. It's lonely in here!

What's the link for the chatroom?

[SCMatt33]

Due just had a 6 point possession (made three with foul, missed FT, offensive rebound, made three). I wonder how long it has been since that happened (if ever)?

[MCFinARL]

Very excited to see platoons.

[dukelifer]

Winslow is very quickly becoming my favorite player.

Winslow is scary good right now - if he hits that jumper- he cannot be stopped

[mr. synellinden]

Winslow is very quickly becoming my favorite player.

Oh my. I hear you. I love Winslow already. What can't he do?

[Troublemaker]

First mixing of the platoons put Sheed, Matt, and Justise on the perimeter. No "true" PG! Coach K must love all the options he has this season.

[dchen09]

Does AT&T U-verse offer espnU streaming without having to subscribe to their cable service? I just moved back to Durham and I have no idea what internet to get. I prefer not to get time warner since I have such a bad experience with them in LA.

[Potato Head]

Not the highest quality of opponent, but we could be scary good this season. Defense, offense, depth, growth potential. I'm excited.

[dukelifer]

Not the highest quality of opponent, but we could be scary good this season. Defense, offense, depth, growth potential. I'm excited.

Time to put in the scrubs- wait they are as good as the starters. Boys were excited to play.

[Troublemaker]

Does AT&T U-verse offer espnU streaming without having to subscribe to their cable service? I just moved back to Durham and I have no idea what internet to get. I prefer not to get time warner since I have such a bad experience with them in LA.

You have to subscribe. ESPN makes you login to your service to watch live games.

[kcduke75]

Does AT&T U-verse offer espnU streaming without having to subscribe to their cable service? I just moved back to Durham and I have no idea what internet to get. I prefer not to get time warner since I have such a bad experience with them in LA.

I understand but twc is not awful in Durham

[DukeBlueHeart4]

Is just over ten minutes into playing time (that I've seen- I missed the two exhibitions) too early to say I love this team?

[GGLC]

Grayson Allen made an absolutely incredible interception and outlet at the 8 minute mark of the first half. Wow. We are very blessed this year.

[Ggallagher]

Wow these guys are fun to watch. Anyone remember when we thought there was nothing better than having Parker and Hood working together???:)

[dukelifer]

Is just over ten minutes into playing time (that I've seen- I missed the two exhibitions) too early to say I love this team?

Have to like the way they share the ball. That is fun to watch.

[Potato Head]

I understand but twc is not awful in Durham

Wut.

[pfrduke]

So, running clock in the second half?

The halftime score in last night's Mavericks-Sixers game was 73-29. We won't get there by halftime, obviously, but we may match or best that margin by the time we get to 73 points.

[dukelifer]

Grayson Allen made an absolutely incredible interception and outlet at the 8 minute mark of the first half. Wow. We are very blessed this year.

Rasheed is playing very well.

[dchen09]

I understand but twc is not awful in Durham

You're the only person that has given a reasonable review for TWC...

[SCMatt33]

My favorite thing that Coach K has brought back from the Olympic experience is the 2 for 1 at the end of halves. They implemented it last year, and they really look to have the personnel to exploit it again this year.

[DU82]

Does AT&T U-verse offer espnU streaming without having to subscribe to their cable service? I just moved back to Durham and I have no idea what internet to get. I prefer not to get time warner since I have such a bad experience with them in LA.

U verse isn't available in all of Durham yet. I'm waiting to switch, hopefully before TWC becomes Comcast.

[MarkD83]

I am amazed looking at the box score.

8 different players have scored. 8 different players have pulled down a rebound. 8 different players have an assist. 57 points scored and only 1 player in double figures. I have never seen such balance in a box score.

[Ggallagher]

Yipes, the over under was 147; Presby has 19 at half time -- and we're on pace to surpass the o/u.
These guys can score and defend.

[DukeBlueHeart4]

Have to like the way they share the ball. That is fun to watch.

Yes! I know this game was never going to be anything but a blowout but these boys are having fun out there and are truly playing some selfless basketball. It looks like the new blood has reenergized our veterans too.

[GGLC]

I love the ball movement.

[dchen09]

U verse isn't available in all of Durham yet. I'm waiting to switch, hopefully before TWC becomes Comcast.

Oh.. that's pretty depressing. I hope I get it.

[timmy c]

I am amazed looking at the box score.

8 different players have scored. 8 different players have pulled down a rebound. 8 different players have an assist. 57 points scored and only 1 player in double figures. I have never seen such balance in a box score.

right. Free throw percentage (0-1) could use a little boost.

[dchen09]

I guess we could use a bit fewer fouls? I'm not sure Amile and Justise can afford to pick up 2 founds in every single game.

[DU82]

Well we didn't beat the spread. It was 39 and we're only up 38.

[pfrduke]

My favorite thing that Coach K has brought back from the Olympic experience is the 2 for 1 at the end of halves. They implemented it last year, and they really look to have the personnel to exploit it again this year.

I'm pretty sure this is not an Olympic-related development. For as long as I can remember we have attempted (when circumstances allow) to get a 2-for-1 scenario. As, for that matter, do many teams.

[pfrduke]

So, running clock in the second half?

The halftime score in last night's Mavericks-Sixers game was 73-29. We won't get there by halftime, obviously, but we may match or best that margin by the time we get to 73 points.

Matched exactly and in almost the same amount of time - after roughly 25 minutes, the score was 73-29.

[Acymetric]

Anyone know who is in the student section across from the team? Walked across the grad section and over into the student section stopping to talk/take pictures/etc the whole way. Celebrity/recruit?

[DU82]

Anyone know who is in the student section across from the team? Walked across the grad section and over into the student section stopping to talk/take pictures/etc the whole way. Celebrity/recruit?

Some guy from MTV's show Catfish. Nev something. ( the gen y'er next to me found it. She didn't know him either.)

[Acymetric]

Some guy from MTV's show Catfish. Nev something. ( the gen y'er next to me found it. She didn't know him either.)

Kinda wish I hadn't asked now...but thanks :)

[dukelifer]

right. Free throw percentage (0-1) could use a little boost.

Duke is not getting all the calls anymore-

[Troublemaker]

lol, Duke showing 1-3-1 zone, then 2-3 zone. hmmm, maybe anything's possible this season

[Troublemaker]

Duke forced about 4 turnovers using the zones

[dukelifer]

Grayson is looking decent on D.

[mattman91]

Give it to pagliuca...then put in Kelly!

[timmy c]

lol, Duke showing 1-3-1 zone, then 2-3 zone. hmmm, maybe anything's possible this season

ten players playing more than 10 minutes. Is it a trend?

[mattman91]

Plumthree!