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Olympic Fan
11-09-2014, 12:51 PM
Duke climbs to No. 19 in the latest coaches poll (AP poll out later today/CFA poll Tuesday):

http://sportspolls.usatoday.com/ncaa/football/polls/coaches-poll/2014/12/

Interesting balance of respect/lack-of-respect. Duke is the lowest ranked one-loss power five team by a big margin -- we are 19th, the next lowest is Nebraska at No. 11.

On the other hand, we did get ranked ahead of a pretty damn good LSU team (at No. 20, they are the top-ranked 3-loss team).

mattman91
11-09-2014, 01:08 PM
Duke climbs to No. 19 in the latest coaches poll (AP poll out later today/CFA poll Tuesday):

http://sportspolls.usatoday.com/ncaa/football/polls/coaches-poll/2014/12/

Interesting balance of respect/lack-of-respect. Duke is the lowest ranked one-loss power five team by a big margin -- we are 19th, the next lowest is Nebraska at No. 11.

On the other hand, we did get ranked ahead of a pretty damn good LSU team (at No. 20, they are the top-ranked 3-loss team).

If we win out, which is a big if, I wonder what we will be ranked once we play FSU in Charlotte?

OZZIE4DUKE
11-09-2014, 01:12 PM
If we win out, which is a big if, I wonder what we will be ranked once we play FSU in Charlotte?
When we beat FSU in Charlotte and we're 12-1, will we be in the top 4 for the playoff or will we play in the Orange Bowl? That's the real question!

DukeSean
11-09-2014, 01:15 PM
This sentiment has been stated in another thread, but again I'm not sure how you rank TCU ahead of Baylor. Sure, a loss to Baylor is a "better" loss than a loss to WVU, but c'mon. I don't even think it matters that TCU beat Minnesota - if you have very similar records, and Baylor beat TCU H2H (even if it was at home), I think that means Baylor's gotta be ahead, if ever so slightly.

wilson
11-09-2014, 01:20 PM
If we win out, which is a big if, I wonder what we will be ranked once we play FSU in Charlotte?Looking at the few teams immediately ahead of us right now, there are some definite opportunities for further advancement:

#18 Arizona finishes at Utah and then home against Arizona State. The Wildcats will likely be underdogs in both; maybe tossup or slight favorites vs. Utah, but their chances of winning both seem pretty low.
#17 Clemson is at Georgia Tech next Saturday and they finish with South Carolina, whom they haven't beaten since 2008. A loss is perhaps not likely, but certainly a distinct possibility. And as we've noted in the bowl selection thread, Clemson's fate down the stretch is of great importance in considering our late December destination.
#16 Notre Dame has Northwestern-Louisville-@USC to close the regular season. The first is relatively easy, the last two, not so much. I think at least one more loss is a reasonable hope/expectation, and like with Clemson, we've noted in the bowl thread that ND's outcomes are very important for our bowl possibilities.
#15 UCLA finishes with USC and Stanford; both home games, but both more or less tossups...a loss is reasonably likely.
#14 Georgia is getting toward the section of the polls where even a loss may not knock a team below us. The Dawgs have Auburn-Charleston Southern-Georgia Tech left, all at home. Given the national perception of the SEC vs. the ACC (especially our specific ACC schedule), I wouldn't think a loss to Auburn would push the Dawgs below us, unless Georgia gets embarrassed and we somehow crush VA Tech (both rather unlikely IMO). Some help from the Jackets on Thanksgiving weekend might be necessary to push us past Georgia...if GA Tech wins in Athens, but also has a home loss to us, then we have a pretty good case to be ranked over the Dawgs (especially if we finish the regular season 2 ahead of them in the loss column).
#13 K-State should crush Kansas next weekend, and then is fairly likely to lose at Baylor in the season's final weekend. Again, I doubt that kind of loss would drop them too far.

With regard to teams ranked 12th and higher, I think we're going to really need some help and/or chaos to overtake people. Depending on our remaining regular season results, the ACC Championship outcome, and our bowl performance, I think that somewhere in the #10-15 range is our reasonable ceiling, barring a shocking result or two. Finishing in that range would, in my opinion, be an incredibly successful season.

mattman91
11-09-2014, 01:32 PM
Looking at the few teams immediately ahead of us right now, there are some definite opportunities for further advancement:

#18 Arizona finishes at Utah and then home against Arizona State. The Wildcats will likely be underdogs in both; maybe tossup or slight favorites vs. Utah, but their chances of winning both seem pretty low.
#17 Clemson is at Georgia Tech next Saturday and they finish with South Carolina, whom they haven't beaten since 2008. A loss is perhaps not likely, but certainly a distinct possibility. And as we've noted in the bowl selection thread, Clemson's fate down the stretch is of great importance in considering our late December destination.
#16 Notre Dame has Northwestern-Louisville-@USC to close the regular season. The first is relatively easy, the last two, not so much. I think at least one more loss is a reasonable hope/expectation, and like with Clemson, we've noted in the bowl thread that ND's outcomes are very important for our bowl possibilities.
#15 UCLA finishes with USC and Stanford; both home games, but both more or less tossups...a loss is reasonably likely.
#14 Georgia is getting toward the section of the polls where even a loss may not knock a team below us. The Dawgs have Auburn-Charleston Southern-Georgia Tech left, all at home. Given the national perception of the SEC vs. the ACC (especially our specific ACC schedule), I wouldn't think a loss to Auburn would push the Dawgs below us, unless Georgia gets embarrassed and we somehow crush VA Tech (both rather unlikely IMO). Some help from the Jackets on Thanksgiving weekend might be necessary to push us past Georgia...if GA Tech wins in Athens, but also has a home loss to us, then we have a pretty good case to be ranked over the Dawgs (especially if we finish the regular season 2 ahead of them in the loss column).
#13 K-State should crush Kansas next weekend, and then is fairly likely to lose at Baylor in the season's final weekend. Again, I doubt that kind of loss would drop them too far.

With regard to teams ranked 12th and higher, I think we're going to really need some help and/or chaos to overtake people. Depending on our remaining regular season results, the ACC Championship outcome, and our bowl performance, I think that somewhere in the #10-15 range is our reasonable ceiling, barring a shocking result or two. Finishing in that range would, in my opinion, be an incredibly successful season.

You're telling me. 3 years ago if you told me we would win 6 games and get flushed in a toilet bowl, I'd call that a successful season.

Good research BTW. Just to be mentioned with teams like Georgia, Clemson, and Notre Dame is remarkable.

OldPhiKap
11-09-2014, 02:03 PM
You're telling me. 3 years ago if you told me we would win 6 games and get flushed in a toilet bowl, I'd call that a successful season.

Good research BTW. Just to be mentioned with teams like Georgia, Clemson, and Notre Dame is remarkable.

How about if I told you at the beginning of this season, you might be disappointed by the fact that we are the lowest-ranked 8-1 team? Or that our chances of making the National Championship game seem to be a long shot?

I remember doing cart wheels when we finally won a conference road game. (@State IIRC).

wilson
11-09-2014, 02:13 PM
Up to #19 in the new AP poll (http://espn.go.com/college-football/rankings/_/poll/1) too. Pretty much the same few teams are ranked directly ahead of us as in the coaches' poll, with some shuffling of the order. So our path to advancement in both polls from here on out is more or less the same.

mattman91
11-09-2014, 02:36 PM
How about if I told you at the beginning of this season, you might be disappointed by the fact that we are the lowest-ranked 8-1 team? Or that our chances of making the National Championship game seem to be a long shot?

I remember doing cart wheels when we finally won a conference road game. (@State IIRC).

I wouldn't be too upset considering our SOS. I mean, far more talented teams have worse records because of the brutality of their schedules...like UNC at 4-5 :rolleyes:

77devil
11-09-2014, 02:44 PM
Duke climbs to No. 19 in the latest coaches poll (AP poll out later today/CFA poll Tuesday):

http://sportspolls.usatoday.com/ncaa/football/polls/coaches-poll/2014/12/

Interesting balance of respect/lack-of-respect. Duke is the lowest ranked one-loss power five team by a big margin -- we are 19th, the next lowest is Nebraska at No. 11.

On the other hand, we did get ranked ahead of a pretty damn good LSU team (at No. 20, they are the top-ranked 3-loss team).


Up to #19 in the new AP poll (http://espn.go.com/college-football/rankings/_/poll/1) too. Pretty much the same few teams are ranked directly ahead of us as in the coaches' poll, with some shuffling of the order. So our path to advancement in both polls from here on out is more or less the same.

All the better to keep the chip on the shoulder. We want these Devils to feel like they still have much to prove.

OldPhiKap
11-09-2014, 02:48 PM
We are 20 in ESPN's Power Poll. The poll also breaks down each of the thirteen voter's ballot. My two, new favorite ESPN announcers are Desmond Howard and Danny Kanell, both of whom have us #10:

http://espn.go.com/college-football/powerrankings/_/show/middle

(Butch Davis has us at 23; Brad Edwards did not even have us in the top 25).

Devil in the Blue Dress
11-09-2014, 02:52 PM
It's exciting to see all this finally coming about. On Facebook, I noticed some friends were ribbing Leon Wright about Duke passing LSU in the polls this week. What a wonderful thing it will be when the football team and the basketball team have similar ratings.... it's happened before (long ago) and it can happen again.

Acymetric
11-09-2014, 02:55 PM
We are 20 in ESPN's Power Poll. The poll also breaks down each of the thirteen voter's ballot. My two, new favorite ESPN announcers are Desmond Howard and Danny Kanell, both of whom have us #10:

http://espn.go.com/college-football/powerrankings/_/show/middle

(Butch Davis has us at 23; Brad Edwards did not even have us in the top 25).

Who in the world gave Butch a vote? Did I miss him going to work for ESPN at some point? Official coaching ethics consultant?

OldPhiKap
11-09-2014, 03:02 PM
Who in the world gave Butch a vote? Did I miss him going to work for ESPN at some point? Official coaching ethics consultant?

http://newsok.com/mack-brown-and-butch-davis-land-jobs-as-espn-studio-analysts/article/5116770

Devil in the Blue Dress
11-09-2014, 03:08 PM
Who in the world gave Butch a vote? Did I miss him going to work for ESPN at some point? Official coaching ethics consultant?
Butch is at ESPN, sometimes when you least expect to see him. Earlier today he and Mack Brown were part of a two man panel talking about which teams they think should be in the final four. There was a third man serving as commentator, but I was so overwhelmed to see these two discussing anything together that his identity escaped me!

brevity
11-09-2014, 03:16 PM
Duke climbs to No. 19 in the latest coaches poll (AP poll out later today/CFA poll Tuesday):

http://sportspolls.usatoday.com/ncaa/football/polls/coaches-poll/2014/12/

Interesting balance of respect/lack-of-respect. Duke is the lowest ranked one-loss power five team by a big margin -- we are 19th, the next lowest is Nebraska at No. 11.

On the other hand, we did get ranked ahead of a pretty damn good LSU team (at No. 20, they are the top-ranked 3-loss team).

The linked article left out something: movement compared to last week's rankings. Duke passed LSU and Oklahoma but only moved up one place. That's because Arizona (7-2) leapfrogged Duke (8-1). Apparently the coaches felt their home victory over 2-8 Colorado was much more impressive than Duke's road victory over 3-7 Syracuse.

Arizona is also weirdly beloved by the AP voters. They were already ahead of Duke last week, but leapfrogged Clemson to take #17. Maybe it's some residual effect of the Oregon win a month ago?

These little differences between the polls, especially in the lower half, make them (and this new thread) less and less meaningful. Best to observe Sunday's polls politely and concentrate on Tuesday's CFP rankings. That way we might not overreact next Sunday if GT beats Clemson and gains ground on Duke, or Clemson beats GT and moves out of reach.

CameronBornAndBred
11-09-2014, 03:30 PM
That way we might not overreact next Sunday if GT beats Clemson and gains ground on Duke, or Clemson beats GT and moves out of reach.
If GT beats Clemson with Watson starting again, I could see GT jumping over Duke and it would be hard to argue against, even if we beat VT. They still would not be ahead of us in the Coastal standings, though, and at this points those standings matter to me more than polls.
P.S...if we trounce VT and win convincingly instead of showing up as we did in our last two victories, I'd expect to remain ahead of GT in the polls no matter what happens in their game.

OldPhiKap
11-09-2014, 03:47 PM
If GT beats Clemson with Watson starting again, I could see GT jumping over Duke and it would be hard to argue against, even if we beat VT. They still would not be ahead of us in the Coastal standings, though, and at this points those standings matter to me more than polls.
P.S...if we trounce VT and win convincingly instead of showing up as we did in our last two victories, I'd expect to remain ahead of GT in the polls no matter what happens in their game.

Agreed. When we talk about polls, style points matter. If the argument against Duke is that our schedule is weak, the counter to that is by running over the folks you have.

To my eye, we are appropriately ranked +/-. I am happy to celebrate the fact that we are a top-20 team and in the hunt for lots of cool things.

Acymetric
11-09-2014, 03:50 PM
http://newsok.com/mack-brown-and-butch-davis-land-jobs-as-espn-studio-analysts/article/5116770

I understand Mack Brown, but who was clamoring on football insights from Butch Davis? I don't even think Miami and unc fans are interested. Interesting choice there.

OldPhiKap
11-09-2014, 03:57 PM
I understand Mack Brown, but who was clamoring on football insights from Butch Davis? I don't even think Miami and unc fans are interested. Interesting choice there.

My guess is that it's like Seth Greenberg or Gino Gaudio. "Among the available who don't have real jobs"

Acymetric
11-09-2014, 04:18 PM
My guess is that it's like Seth Greenberg or Gino Gaudio. "Among the available who don't have real jobs"

At least you can pander to the ABD crowd with Greenberg, not sure Davis has the same cache there.

Anyways, back on topic. I'd like to be ranked higher but think its pretty fair. Each week we keep winning I think we will sneak ahead of one or two 2 loss teams even if they win. VT still has some name recognition so even though they are down this year a win would be a boost in the eyes of the voters. Very curious to see how the playoff rankings turns out, I think they are more willing to move teams around than the poll voters who tend to want to "prove themselves right" by keeping teams where they are as best they can short of drastic results forcing big moves.

ricks68
11-10-2014, 12:21 AM
After living in Texas for 37 years before moving to NC last year, I never ever would have believed that we would someday be ranked in a football poll ahead of Texas, Texas A & M, LSU, and Oklahoma!:p:p Wow!

Way to go Duke!! See you all at the game this weekend. Go Devils!

ricks

johnb
11-10-2014, 02:21 AM
Poll voters have long seemed to use a fairly straightforward logic that allows teams like ours to bump upwards with expectable wins, forgetting SOS, etc. Vegas is more accurate in regards to evaluations, and I imagine we'd be underdogs against LSU, Oklahoma, and a bunch of other teams that have lost a few games and are below us or unranked. We can hang tough with anyone and I believe we can win out, but I don't think we're being ignored in the polls.

subzero02
11-10-2014, 05:41 AM
I agree. After watching all of the future NFL talent in the Alabama/LSU game on Saturday night, I'd say there's no chance we'd be favored over the Tigers on a neutral field.

budwom
11-10-2014, 08:14 AM
Indeed. It's very clear that you win, you rise, you lose, you fall. That's why our easy out of conference schedule is very appropriate for where our program stands now.

I'm 100% sure that Cutcliffe much prefers telling recruits (and our recruiting is improving every year) we're 8-1 and 19th ranked as opposed to saying we're 6-3, unranked, but lost to
two very good teams in LSU and Ohio St. (for example).

Job 1 for this season was to get back to another bowl....now we can aspire to another double digit win season. Keep winning, and rankings will take care of themselves.

Wander
11-10-2014, 11:15 AM
One very tiny and almost certainly insignificant point: our Sagarin SOS jumped up about 15 spots this weekend, from ~100 to 84. Kansas, Tulane, and Troy all finally won games, with GT also winning and UVA playing FSU close. The ACC Coastal also edged ahead of the Big 10 divisions for I think the first time all season. I sort of doubt it's enough to make a difference, but maybe if our non-conference foes can transition from "the worst teams in Division 1A" to "just pretty bad" over the end of the season, our strength of schedule can creep up a little bit and help us get ahead of Clemson for the Orange Bowl slot should we make the title game and lose to FSU?

BigWayne
11-10-2014, 01:48 PM
I agree. After watching all of the future NFL talent in the Alabama/LSU game on Saturday night, I'd say there's no chance we'd be favored over the Tigers on a neutral field.

I agree with you completely and was thinking about the same thing yesterday. That being said, the main reason in my eyes LSU lost was two mental errors near the end of regulation that are what I am used to seeing my own favored teams make in the past. The pushing and shoving personal foul that pushed LSU back before their late field goal and the subsequent brain fart squib kick. Either one of those not happening would have significantly reduced Bama's chances. I am really happy to see Cutcliffe focused so much on not making these kind of mistakes.

yancem
11-10-2014, 02:20 PM
So honest question: would you rather Duke land one of the big bowls against an Auburn/Ole Miss or end up in a slightly lower bowl playing say Arizona? I would really like to see Duke win a bowl game and while I think that it is great that we are 8-1, I don't have a good feel for how good we actually are because of our schedule. And yes, I think that it is a difficult to win 8 games even against not the strongest competition. We showed much better last year against Johnny Football (and really should have actually won) then I thought we would so maybe the years of dreadful football are impacting my outlook but I fear if we draw a SEC team in a bowl, we might get crushed. That might offset some of our wonderful progress, which would be a shame.

CameronBornAndBred
11-10-2014, 02:26 PM
So honest question: would you rather Duke land one of the big bowls against an Auburn/Ole Miss or end up in a slightly lower bowl playing say Arizona? I would really like to see Duke win a bowl game and while I think that it is great that we are 8-1, I don't have a good feel for how good we actually are because of our schedule. And yes, I think that it is a difficult to win 8 games even against not the strongest competition. We showed much better last year against Johnny Football (and really should have actually won) then I thought we would so maybe the years of dreadful football are impacting my outlook but I fear if we draw a SEC team in a bowl, we might get crushed. That might offset some of our wonderful progress, which would be a shame.
The biggest bowl we can play in. Don't settle for less just for the chance of victory. Victory in neither game is guaranteed to either team, so let's shoot for the moon.

Dev11
11-10-2014, 05:14 PM
The biggest bowl we can play in. Don't settle for less just for the chance of victory. Victory in neither game is guaranteed to either team, so let's shoot for the moon.

Until I know what it feels like to win one, I'll agree with this answer. I want Duke to play in the Orange Bowl. It gives us more exposure and it probably increases our own attendance at the event.

Duvall
11-10-2014, 05:19 PM
So honest question: would you rather Duke land one of the big bowls against an Auburn/Ole Miss or end up in a slightly lower bowl playing say Arizona? I would really like to see Duke win a bowl game and while I think that it is great that we are 8-1, I don't have a good feel for how good we actually are because of our schedule. And yes, I think that it is a difficult to win 8 games even against not the strongest competition. We showed much better last year against Johnny Football (and really should have actually won) then I thought we would so maybe the years of dreadful football are impacting my outlook but I fear if we draw a SEC team in a bowl, we might get crushed. That might offset some of our wonderful progress, which would be a shame.

I don't get this view. There will be years when Duke falls into a Military or Bitcoin Bowl against a weaker opponent and has a great chance to win. Plus, bowl games are exhibitions - the accomplishment is getting to the best bowl possible, winning the bowl game is an afterthought. It's not like a real postseason where losing is painful because your team lost a chance to win a championship. Losing in the Orange Bowl and winning the Music City Bowl are just variations of runner-up status.

sagegrouse
11-10-2014, 05:28 PM
So honest question: would you rather Duke land one of the big bowls against an Auburn/Ole Miss or end up in a slightly lower bowl playing say Arizona? I would really like to see Duke win a bowl game and while I think that it is great that we are 8-1, I don't have a good feel for how good we actually are because of our schedule. And yes, I think that it is a difficult to win 8 games even against not the strongest competition. .


The biggest bowl we can play in. Don't settle for less just for the chance of victory. Victory in neither game is guaranteed to either team, so let's shoot for the moon.


Until I know what it feels like to win one, I'll agree with this answer. I want Duke to play in the Orange Bowl. It gives us more exposure and it probably increases our own attendance at the event.


I don't get this view. There will be years when Duke falls into a Military or Bitcoin Bowl against a weaker opponent and has a great chance to win. Plus, bowl games are exhibitions - the accomplishment is getting to the best bowl possible, winning the bowl game is an afterthought. It's not like a real postseason where losing is painful because your team lost a chance to win a championship. Losing in the Orange Bowl and winning the Music City Bowl are just variations of runner-up status.

This is easy. Go for the money and the national exposure, and then -- win the damned game! Moreover, Cut does a great job of preparing teams for bowl games. He was 4-1 at Ole Miss and should be 2-0 at Duke.

Kindly, Sage