MBB (Exh): Duke 87, Central Missouri 47 Post Game Thread

[-jk]

Sometime after the football game ends (Go Duke!), discuss the basketball win here.

-jk

[devildeac]

Gotta be an all-time DBR record for least number of posts during an in-game thread with 8.

Football school;).

[Gthoma2a]

I will multi-task. That was amazing by Blakeny, by the way!

The team looked really impressive. It wasn't always pretty, but it was good. We aren't the traditional Duke team, we're better. We don't need to shoot the 3 very much. We have plenty of slashers.

Justise may be our MVP by the end of this. He defends very well, gets back, does well on the break and he is tough about getting in the lane.

Jahlil has shown that he can pass a bit. The entire first team started slow, but he showed that he can affect the game in a lot of ways. He had a block that bounced off the board so hard that it started a beautiful break that went to Tyus and he assisted Justise for a beautiful slam. He is outstanding. He may need to guard the ball a little more from time to time, but he is still getting used to the college game (I think he toyed with people a lot in HS).

Grayson looked really good. It must be really difficult to not foul him, because it seems he gets to the line every time he gets into the lane.

Tyus looked like a good distributor. He is able to score, as well, but he just hit his first 3 for us today. Still, exactly the distributor that we need.

Quinn is a leader. He looks like he is relishing his senior year and just wants to win. He pressures on D, and he is much more aggressive on offense, this year. With as many players that can drive, the floor is spaced much better for this. He was shooting pretty well, and he played pressure D. He was intense the whole time, and he didn't seem to overplay as much. I like his attitude, and, while he may not start, he is a key to this team. I don't think you can question his will to win, and that will keep the more passive players focused.

Rasheed played much better. He got back and he just played within himself. I would still argue that he needs to come off of the bench, but that is just my opinion (if you give him too much of a leash, you risk him reverting to bad habits).

Matt's shot wasn't as on (a lot of guys had them going in and out), but he was himself. He was solid.

Semi impressed me today. He didn't look hesitant. He was out there and being aggressive. One bad 3, but he was pretty effective (driving and shooting 3s on O and got a block and a rebound on D). He is there, if we need him, and I feel much more comfortable with that.

Amile is really good, but I wish he were more accurate with his shot. He goes to the outside, but is basically forced to go off the bounce if he wants to attack, because he has no shot from the outside. He started out with a lid on the rim, even from short, but with his D and communication, he is a valuable piece.

Marshall was a huge spark off of the bench. He was flying in for putbacks. He was great on the boards today. He isn't going to do much, if he has to put the ball on the floor (every time he dribbled, his hands seemed to fail him, but he flushed the ball well). He altered shots and he really just played well.

The second unit came in, with us down, and reminded the starters how Duke is supposed to play. The D caused a lot of tough shots for Central Missouri. They made some of the shots, but little came easy for them. We won big, despite not shooting particularly well from long-range, but we don't need to fall in love with the 3 this year, anyway. I keep noticing that this year, we are trying to use angles on D more. The man on the guy will turn to the side to get into the passing lane, while a big gets a small distance in front to prevent penetration. I don't know what we did last year, but, against limited competition, this is working to make life difficult for the opposition (and it caused turnovers for layups). I think it was what we were hoping for last year.

We are a much improved team, and we can do so much more than last year, because so many more guys are allowed to touch the ball (even the players we had last year are looking much more effective, now). It will be a fun season, where we don't have to worry about, where will the points come if one or two players are struggling (it was all Parker and Hood for most of last year).

[OldPhiKap]

Way to go! 8-1 and on to VT!

Anything else going on today?

[Troublemaker]

Great 4th quarter by football!

Not sure what I'm more excited for because men's basketball continues to look soooo good this year. I multi-watched. Here are preliminary thoughts on the basketball exhibition.

Let me start by saying that I’m glad the first few minutes of the game happened the way they did. UCM got out to leads of 9-3, 11-6, and 13-7 on Duke. First off, it wasn’t like Duke was playing poorly during that period of time. UCM made some midrange and long 2s that we’re going to give up this season when we ice ball screens. And on the other end, Duke couldn’t get a shot to drop on offense. We had at least three rimmed out threes on good open shots, and Amile missed a couple of chippies inside. UCM was packing it in on defense and Jahlil got stripped on a double-team when he usually is more patient and finds the open man. But other than that, I wouldn’t say Duke was playing poorly.

Now UCM showed me during that period of time that they are a well-drilled, smart, together team who can make shots. You could watch them play and understand how they were Div II champions last season like Drury was the year before. This was a good thing to establish at the beginning of the game because, as Newton14 might point out, while Drury was able to use the same qualities to lead at halftime in last season’s exhibition, this year’s Duke team dominated after trailing 13-7 early. We spent the rest of the game wearing down and taking apart a well-coached team using our size and speed, our depth and athleticism, our play in the passing lanes, our quick hands for strips, our shotblocking(!), our court vision and ball movement, our amazing transition offense, our offensive-rebounding and ability to draw fouls on drives, our variety on offense, our cutting off the ball, and overall just our excellent basketball IQ. It was a clinic. We didn’t hit our threes, but I was more impressed by this performance than the one against Livingstone because we defended like mad men both halves.

[Troublemaker]

I keep noticing that this year, we are trying to use angles on D more. The man on the guy will turn to the side to get into the passing lane, while a big gets a small distance in front to prevent penetration. I don't know what we did last year, but, against limited competition, this is working to make life difficult for the opposition (and it caused turnovers for layups).

That's called icing the ball screen, brother! Coach K has borrowed some from Thibs.

Interestingly, though, after UCM took an early lead, we actually switched up the ball screen defense a bit from icing. Our bigs started hugging up on the screener and we saw some hedging, some switching, and even some blitzing of the ball-handler with Plumlee, and more scrambling overall. This really disrupted UCM's rhythm that they had established at the beginning of the game when we only played ice. Then, we went back to icing ball screens and UCM couldn't hit their long 2s anymore and we were just locked in and torturing them with ball pressure and denial. It's good to be able to throw a changeup in there and have it be effective at disrupting the opponent's rhythm.

The second half was an icing clinic. UCM attacked us all game with ball screens and we played them well. Last year's team couldn't.

[duke09hms]

That's called icing the ball screen, brother! Coach K has borrowed some from Thibs.

Interestingly, though, after UCM took an early lead, we actually switched up the ball screen defense a bit from icing. Our bigs started hugging up on the screener and we saw some hedging, some switching, and even some blitzing of the ball-handler with Plumlee, and more scrambling overall. This really disrupted UCM's rhythm that they had established at the beginning of the game when we only played ice. Then, we went back to icing ball screens and UCM couldn't hit their long 2s anymore and we were just locked in and torturing them with ball pressure and denial. It's good to be able to throw a changeup in there and have it be effective at disrupting the opponent's rhythm.

I'm so glad to hear we decided to ice the pick and rolls this year because ice by design takes away middle penetration, which is what we've been burned by over and over these last few years by ultra quick/athletic guards. What it does give up are long 2s and 3s by the screener, which is only a problem against Nowitzki-like bigs who can shoot 3s, and there's not too many of those in college. I'd much rather lose to a team making long 2s than a team getting easy layups and dumpoffs over and over and over.

[Newton_14]

Great 4th quarter by football!

Not sure what I'm more excited for because men's basketball continues to look soooo good this year. I multi-watched. Here are preliminary thoughts on the basketball exhibition.

Let me start by saying that I’m glad the first few minutes of the game happened the way they did. UCM got out to leads of 9-3, 11-6, and 13-7 on Duke. First off, it wasn’t like Duke was playing poorly during that period of time. UCM made some midrange and long 2s that we’re going to give up this season when we ice ball screens. And on the other end, Duke couldn’t get a shot to drop on offense. We had at least three rimmed out threes on good open shots, and Amile missed a couple of chippies inside. UCM was packing it in on defense and Jahlil got stripped on a double-team when he usually is more patient and finds the open man. But other than that, I wouldn’t say Duke was playing poorly.

Now UCM showed me during that period of time that they are a well-drilled, smart, together team who can make shots. You could watch them play and understand how they were Div II champions last season like Drury was the year before. This was a good thing to establish at the beginning of the game because, as Newton14 might point out, while Drury was able to use the same qualities to lead at halftime in last season’s exhibition, this year’s Duke team dominated after trailing 13-7 early. We spent the rest of the game wearing down and taking apart a well-coached team using our size and speed, our depth and athleticism, our play in the passing lanes, our quick hands for strips, our shotblocking(!), our court vision and ball movement, our amazing transition offense, our offensive-rebounding and ability to draw fouls on drives, our variety on offense, our cutting off the ball, and overall just our excellent basketball IQ. It was a clinic. We didn’t hit our threes, but I was more impressed by this performance than the one against Livingstone because we defended like mad men both halves.

Well you just pretty much covered verbatim, every major point I made while texting Kedsy during the game, so not much for me to add here! That's funny. Especially with describing the start of the game and our defense.

I was actually able to watch the FB and BB game at the same time. A very nice lady in front of me was streaming the game live on her IPhone and I had the perfect angle. It was still 10-3 when I got in the car to come home so I still heard the Crowder return TD on the call from Bob Harris. Good times folks. Don't take them for granted.


This team is just so much better than last years team on defense and probably will be on offense too. Jahlil showed a lot of Mason like passing today which was beautiful.

So Phase 0 showed one game where threes were falling and one game were shots from everywhere were rimming out, and both were 30+ point blowouts. Defense looking really good.

Test 1- A+

On to Phase I and test two. I don't see the starting lineup changing any time soon either. Matt looks very comfortable in that slot and is a good fit with the other 4 guys. Quinn looks great in his new role, and Grayson continues to look really good, and Rasheed was better today, airball on a wide open 3 notwithstanding. We did see the small line up briefly today and surprisingly it happened with both Quinn and Tyus in the backcourt. They were joined by Grayson, Winslow, and Amile. K has so many options to roll with this season. Can go small, medium, large or even extra large if he wants.

Good day to be a Blue Devil. Congrats to the FB and BB teams. Well done.

[dukelifer]

I got to see the team in person for the first time. First impressions. Winslow is really,really good- maybe the best player on the team. Parts of his game are still raw, but has the potential to be a big star. He is at a different level athletically and moves with ease on the floor. He plays with a calm that you rarely see in a Freshman. He slashes to the rim with power, yet has a very nice touch. Okafor is a much better defender than I expected. He times his jumps well and is a decent rim protector. He also passes very well. Clearly a talent. T Jones is an excellent passer. He had 3 or 4 passes that Quinn could not make. He too has very good defensive anticipation. The D is going to be much better this year with these three on the floor. The combination of M Jones and Winslow is going to give some teams fits on both ends of the floor. If M Jones can start to hit his outside shot, Duke can be very good. The shooting on this team is a bit of a concern. There is no great shooter on this squad. Allen is good with his feet set and other guys can hit - but this team will need to score inside out. K played two teams with Cook playing on both. We may see this throughout the year to keep guys fresh and engaged. It will be interesting to see who Duke goes to in crunch time. Winslow is real possibility. Should be a fun team to watch develop.

[uh_no]

Things i learned from the game:

nothing. the opponent was overmatched.

most people looked good, some shots didn't fall early, what you gonna do.

[uh_no]

also: in the things people might not have noticed:

rasheed didn't shoot well, but had a cool 4 assists and 0 TOs.

i think K's gotta be happier with that than last week. the shots will come, but it's tough to commit to driving when we were so easily able to over match them down low.

i'm going to assume we're going into the regular season with the 5 J lineup to start....but it was clear to me, at least, that K was spending a lo of time playing different guard combos...it may not be until january that we have a great idea

[Newton_14]

Things i learned from the game:

nothing. the opponent was overmatched.

most people looked good, some shots didn't fall early, what you gonna do.

I know you are cynical by nature:D, but there was plenty to learn today. Yes the opponent was overmatched, but like most cupcake opponents K schedules, they were very well coached, disciplined, and played hard. Not to beat a dead horse to death but they were very similar to the Drury team last season that led at the half.

Our defense throughout the game was very strong. Soooooo much difference than last season. Even in the two exhibitions last season, we pressed and pressed and pressed full court against those opponents and got nothing from it but a bunch of tired Blue Devils. By the 3rd or 4th game it was obvious they were terrible at it and all the running was killing Jabari so K had to abandon it and go back to halfcourt only.

We have seen them 4 times now (Jim and Oly probably more than that) with CTC, Open Practice, and the two exhibitions, and it is already obvious how much better this group is on defense. (Compared to last seasons team at the same stage. This year's team still has to prove they can sustain that against the better teams for sure. All evidence obtained so far is pointing toward a "yes they can" verdict vs a "no they can't".)

It's a long way to go and we have to see how they do as the competition stiffens, which it will do in a hurry. One of the reasons Matt Jones has such a stronghold on the starting spot at 2 guard is how good he is at defense and pressing. He is also the perfect backcourt mate for Tyus. If Matt can just be consistent hitting that 3 ball, all will be well.I
was a huge Rodney Hood fan last year, but Winslow is so big, strong, and graceful, and is showing to be really strong on defense. Amile is a beast out there defensively, quarterbacking the defense, point man on the press at times, rebounding like a mad man. Perfect complement player to Jahlil.

The bench is deep and strong. There really isn't a single player on the bench that you would be scared to have on the court in a tight game during a critical situation. Semi is probably the weakest player as of right now (though I hate using that word for him or any of the others) but even he is much improved and is not going to be overwhelmed out there.

With Jahlil on the offensive end, it just opens up so many things offensively, not the least of which is his own ability to score, but he showed today he is a willing passer and a good passer who isn't going to take a stupid shot trying to go 1 on 3 or 1 on 4. I was super impressed with him today when they double and tripled teamed him. He is going to live at the foul line, as is Winslow.

Quinn looks really good in his new role, and I love Grayson Allen. At some point too, I have to believe Rasheed will get back to playing close to or at his talent level. We honestly have the deepest SG team I have ever seen at Duke. You take the other 4 starters in Tyus, Winslow, Amile, Jahlil, and we can then plug in any one of Matt, Quinn, Rasheed, Grayson, and you still feel like we have a very strong 5 man team on the court. That's incredible really. Each of those 4 brings something different to the table too. This is why I believe Semi's minutes are going to get squeezed unfortunately. Once we get into the meat of the schedule, when Amile rests, K is going to slide Winslow to the 4 spot, so he can get 3 of the 6 guard/wing kids on the floor because all are so talented.

That's why I am not worried one bit about shooting. They really did not shoot well today but on most nights, if you have Tyus at point, Winslow at PF, Jahlil at Center, then two of Matt/Quinn/Rasheed/Grayson out there with them, you have 4 very capable 3 point shooters surrounding Jahlil. Double teaming Jahlil in that scenario is going to leave one of those four shooters wide open, and if Jahlil is facing single coverage, then just forget it. He is scoring or going to the line or both. He is going to kill any team that tries to stop him with one defender.

I think the outlook for the season is much more promising that it was last year at this time. They will face adversity and have bad nights for sure, but they are much better equipped to deal with that this year than last.

Looking at the 10 guys, I don't think anybody would single one of those kids out right now and say "Wow, he is a really bad/subpar defender".

[mo.st.dukie]

also: in the things people might not have noticed:

rasheed didn't shoot well, but had a cool 4 assists and 0 TOs.

i think K's gotta be happier with that than last week. the shots will come, but it's tough to commit to driving when we were so easily able to over match them down low.

i'm going to assume we're going into the regular season with the 5 J lineup to start....but it was clear to me, at least, that K was spending a lo of time playing different guard combos...it may not be until january that we have a great idea

Coach K said in his post game press conference that we'll have a lot of different lineups out on the court but not necessarily different starting lineups.

I think the current starting lineup will be it for a while, the only real change that might happen would be Quinn or Rasheed in for Matt but K has talked a lot about how Matt fits better with the other starters. With Matt starting it can set the defensive tone early plus give us a ton of scoring experience off the bench which will be handy in situations where we don't have Jahlil on the floor.

[mo.st.dukie]

Things i learned from the game:

nothing. the opponent was overmatched.

most people looked good, some shots didn't fall early, what you gonna do.

Let's not forget what last year's team did against another D-II team from Missouri. At least we learned that we aren't that bad.

[Edouble]

I don't care about football.

Wow, what a game. I already like this year's team much, much more than last year's. We're a real Duke team. We play defense!

I'm ready to go all in and say if we stay healthy, we're winning the National Championship. This is hands down the most talented team since the silver era of '98-'02. The three freshman starters so obviously mirror the three freshman stars from '12 Kentucky, although I think Tyus is better than Marcus Teague.

Any team that can give-or-take Rasheed Suilamon, who is probably the most talented guard in the ACC, is dangerous indeed. I do think that Rasheed will have a big part to play before this thing is over though.

Justise is pretty much Rodney Hood's doppelganger. The guy is more likely to have 10 rebounds than to have zero. The kind of guy, who when his shot is not falling, will find other ways to impact the game. I had no idea he'd be this good.

I sense that we will see Amile's best year this year, playing alongside an NBA calibre center.

Grayson is making a strong case for himself to stay in the rotation. It's a million years until January though.

[dukelifer]

I don't care about football.

Wow, what a game. I already like this year's team much, much more than last year's. We're a real Duke team. We play defense!

I'm ready to go all in and say if we stay healthy, we're winning the National Championship. This is hands down the most talented team since the silver era of '98-'02. The three freshman starters so obviously mirror the three freshman stars from '12 Kentucky, although I think Tyus is better than Marcus Teague.

Any team that can give-or-take Rasheed Suilamon, who is probably the most talented guard in the ACC, is dangerous indeed. I do think that Rasheed will have a big part to play before this thing is over though.

Justise is pretty much Rodney Hood's doppelganger. The guy is more likely to have 10 rebounds than to have zero. The kind of guy, who when his shot is not falling, will find other ways to impact the game. I had no idea he'd be this good.

I sense that we will see Amile's best year this year, playing alongside an NBA calibre center.

Grayson is making a strong case for himself to stay in the rotation. It's a million years until January though.

This team has talent- but a lot of work to do. I have no doubt that they would win the Division II national championship but we have no idea how this team will play in a tight game against the big boys. We will learn a lot very soon.

[mgtr]

OK, we have ten good players. Coach K always whittles this down to 7 or 8 in the rotation by January. So, who is out of the rotation? First out, probably Semi. Next out, none. I just don't see how you can keep Grayson on the bench. So, nine in the rotation, and by January Semi may earn his way into the rotation. Wonderful problems to have!!!

[DukieInBrasil]

OK, we have ten good players. Coach K always whittles this down to 7 or 8 in the rotation by January. So, who is out of the rotation? First out, probably Semi. Next out, none. I just don't see how you can keep Grayson on the bench. So, nine in the rotation, and by January Semi may earn his way into the rotation. Wonderful problems to have!!!

I agree that it's hard to see how anyone gets whittled out of the rotation, but that's just the starbursts in my eyes speaking. Seems much more likely that all 10 play pretty regularly up thru January, when K would start shrinking the "rotation". I agree that Semi seems likely to be the first to drop out, since it doesn't seem like he has the "must play" stature of say, Justise. I haven't seen the team at all, including 0 exhibition games, but my gut tells me that Grayson is next likely to see his use drop, if in fact K really does go with 8 man "rotation".

Somebody else said it in another thread, but i too am getting tired of the Suaimon "will he or won't he" show. He's a Jr. and he needs to show up every game. He might get the bench in Grayson's place if he keeps doing that.

[Troublemaker]

OK, we have ten good players. Coach K always whittles this down to 7 or 8 in the rotation by January. So, who is out of the rotation? First out, probably Semi. Next out, none. I just don't see how you can keep Grayson on the bench. So, nine in the rotation, and by January Semi may earn his way into the rotation. Wonderful problems to have!!!

First question that has to be answered is: Will Duke fullcourt press for 40 minutes all season?

If we do, we'll have an 8.5+ man rotation all season.

Backing off the press (either for the season or in an individual game where the opponent is hurting the press) opens the door for the traditional 7.5-8 man rotation.

[Henderson]

First question that has to be answered is: Will Duke fullcourt press for 40 minutes all season?

If we do, we'll have an 8.5+ man rotation all season.

Backing off the press (either for the season or in an individual game where the opponent is hurting the press) opens the door for the traditional 7.5-8 man rotation.

Duke won't press full court for 40 minutes all season, but K has said he wants to use this team's depth of talent to get deeper into other teams' rotations (i.e. wear other teams' best players down). So I think we'll see more players getting more minutes deeper into the season than we have in recent years. It's too early to say what that means, but I wouldn't count on 2-3 of the 10 scholarship players becoming mere bench fodder come January.

[jimsumner]

Different lineups?

We've seen T. Jones and Cook play together, sometimes with a very small lineup that includes Sulaimon at the 3 and Winslow at the 4. Lots of quicks and lots of ball-handling.

We even saw Amile play the 5 for a few possessions yesterday.

What we haven't seen is Okafor and Plumlee playing together in a true twin towers. If we haven't seen it yet, we likely won't.

My favorite moment yesterday was during halftime, in the lobby, where I overheard two CMU fans in line for popcorn. One said to the other, with a tone equal parts awe and incredulity, "they really are that much better than us."

Sulaimon didn't have the break-out game we were hoping for. But it was a step in the right direction, better ball-handling, better passing, better defense, better decision-making.

If Okafor had Winslow's hunger for the ball, he'd lead the nation in rebounding. Not a criticism of Okafor as much as a recognition that Winslow is one seriously tough son-of-a-beta-blocker. K lauded Winslow's efficiency after the game, noting how many points Winslow is scoring versus how little time he has the ball in his hands.

I love the way Cook is leading this team. A senior, incumbent point guard giving up the reins to a freshman? Has bad mojo written all over it. But Cook is not only giving up that role, he's embracing it. And his teammates have noticed.

And Duke is playing D with a level of enthusiasm and intensity not seen last year. Last year's team too often played defense because it was required in the rule book. This year's team plays defense like it wants to inflict some damage.

Yes, it's early, six of the 10 recruited players are under-classmen and CMU isn't Wisconsin. There will be some growing pains. But the foundation is there for some good stuff this season. Real good stuff.

[sagegrouse]

First question that has to be answered is: Will Duke fullcourt press for 40 minutes all season?

If we do, we'll have an 8.5+ man rotation all season.

Backing off the press (either for the season or in an individual game where the opponent is hurting the press) opens the door for the traditional 7.5-8 man rotation.


Duke won't press full court for 40 minutes all season, but K has said he wants to use this team's depth of talent to get deeper into other teams' rotations (i.e. wear other teams' best players down). So I think we'll see more players getting more minutes deeper into the season than we have in recent years. It's too early to say what that means, but I wouldn't count on 2-3 of the 10 scholarship players becoming mere bench fodder come January.

Trouble and Henderson: As you know, I continue to believe that all ten players will get meaningful minutes, perhaps in every game. It's a perfect storm that will -- for this year, at least -- upend traditional K practices. To recapitulate:


The three best players are freshman -- who have no college experience and will need to adjust to the intensity of ACC play.
The fourth freshman, Grayson Allen, has forced his way into the rotation.
The three returning starters are good, solid players, but did not receive any All-ACC mention last year.
The three players who were on the bench last year are strong and aggressive and have now learned the Duke system. Heck, Matt Jones is gonna start. MP3 was a productive player last year and will get a lot of minutes this year. I don't see how and why the only player who doesn't see minutes is Semi, who is powerfully built and can shoot.
K came rolling out of his victorious world tour determined to put Duke back on top of the NCAA heap. Everything is being questioned and changes are being made.

Boy, I could be wrong, but this is how I see it.

KIdnly, Sage

[Kedsy]

Trouble and Henderson: As you know, I continue to believe that all ten players will get meaningful minutes, perhaps in every game. It's a perfect storm that will -- for this year, at least -- upend traditional K practices. To recapitulate:


The three best players are freshman -- who have no college experience and will need to adjust to the intensity of ACC play.
The fourth freshman, Grayson Allen, has forced his way into the rotation.
The three returning starters are good, solid players, but did not receive any All-ACC mention last year.
The three players who were on the bench last year are strong and aggressive and have now learned the Duke system. Heck, Matt Jones is gonna start. MP3 was a productive player last year and will get a lot of minutes this year. I don't see how and why the only player who doesn't see minutes is Semi, who is powerfully built and can shoot.
K came rolling out of his victorious world tour determined to put Duke back on top of the NCAA heap. Everything is being questioned and changes are being made.

Boy, I could be wrong, but this is how I see it.

KIdnly, Sage

I don't mean to argue every time you post something like this, but it appears to me to be mostly wishful thinking. You may think Grayson deserves to be in the rotation, but to say he's "forced his way into the rotation" after two exhibition games against overmatched opponents? It's a stretch. Remember, Alex Murphy started two exhibition games a few years ago, and that didn't even force his way into the rotation in all his years at Duke.

Marshall should see most of the minutes when Jahlil is on the bench, but if the exhibitions taught us anything (and I'm not sure how much they did), it's that (a) it's very unlikely Jahlil and Marshall will play together (because if K was entertaining that notion he would have at least tried it) and (b) Jahlil will get as many minutes as he can handle (because he's that good). I can see Marshall getting 10 to 12 minutes, but assuming when you say "a lot" you mean more than that, I don't see why you think this has been anywhere close to established at this point.

I think there's a good chance we'll take an 8-man rotation pretty deep into the season (maybe the whole way), with Marshall as 8th most minutes and Matt as 7th most minutes. And hopefully we'll win a lot of blowouts, so Marshall, Grayson, and Semi can get in some good run, but in close games against good competition (especially once ACC play begins), I haven't seen anything yet that would lead me to believe Coach K will go deeper than 8.

[sagegrouse]

I don't mean to argue every time you post something like this, but it appears to me to be mostly wishful thinking. You may think Grayson deserves to be in the rotation, but to say he's "forced his way into the rotation" after two exhibition games against overmatched opponents? It's a stretch. Remember, Alex Murphy started two exhibition games a few years ago, and that didn't even force his way into the rotation in all his years at Duke.

Marshall should see most of the minutes when Jahlil is on the bench, but if the exhibitions taught us anything (and I'm not sure how much they did), it's that (a) it's very unlikely Jahlil and Marshall will play together (because if K was entertaining that notion he would have at least tried it) and (b) Jahlil will get as many minutes as he can handle (because he's that good). I can see Marshall getting 10 to 12 minutes, but assuming when you say "a lot" you mean more than that, I don't see why you think this has been anywhere close to established at this point.

I think there's a good chance we'll take an 8-man rotation pretty deep into the season (maybe the whole way), with Marshall as 8th most minutes and Matt as 7th most minutes. And hopefully we'll win a lot of blowouts, so Marshall, Grayson, and Semi can get in some good run, but in close games against good competition (especially once ACC play begins), I haven't seen anything yet that would lead me to believe Coach K will go deeper than 8.

I'm headed out and will respond more fully later, but my only problem with your responses to me is that you seem to pick a very unimportant point and use it to invalidate a much broader argument. Ignoratio elenchi, or some such phrase I don't understand.

[sagegrouse]

I don't mean to argue every time you post something like this, but it appears to me to be mostly wishful thinking. You may think Grayson deserves to be in the rotation, but to say he's "forced his way into the rotation" after two exhibition games against overmatched opponents? It's a stretch. Remember, Alex Murphy started two exhibition games a few years ago, and that didn't even force his way into the rotation in all his years at Duke.

Marshall should see most of the minutes when Jahlil is on the bench, but if the exhibitions taught us anything (and I'm not sure how much they did), it's that (a) it's very unlikely Jahlil and Marshall will play together (because if K was entertaining that notion he would have at least tried it) and (b) Jahlil will get as many minutes as he can handle (because he's that good). I can see Marshall getting 10 to 12 minutes, but assuming when you say "a lot" you mean more than that, I don't see why you think this has been anywhere close to established at this point.

I think there's a good chance we'll take an 8-man rotation pretty deep into the season (maybe the whole way), with Marshall as 8th most minutes and Matt as 7th most minutes. And hopefully we'll win a lot of blowouts, so Marshall, Grayson, and Semi can get in some good run, but in close games against good competition (especially once ACC play begins), I haven't seen anything yet that would lead me to believe Coach K will go deeper than 8.

I wrote, "The fourth freshman, Grayson Allen, has forced his way into the rotation." Fair comment -- perhaps I should have said "has made a case for being in the rotation."

I think Marshall will get 15-20 minutes because he's that good -- and I know others believe this is nonsensical 'cuz Jah and Marshall won't play at the same time. And, of course, I think they probably will play at the same time. No point in arguing further. And I don't want to mention the "I" word.

In your last para., you have a very reasonable projection that is at odds with my off-the-wall prediction that all ten players will get "meaningful minutes," which would be more than ten per Duke game, or roughly 300 minutes. We'll find out.

[Kedsy]

I wrote, "The fourth freshman, Grayson Allen, has forced his way into the rotation." Fair comment -- perhaps I should have said "has made a case for being in the rotation."

I think Marshall will get 15-20 minutes because he's that good -- and I know others believe this is nonsensical 'cuz Jah and Marshall won't play at the same time. And, of course, I think they probably will play at the same time. No point in arguing further. And I don't want to mention the "I" word.

In your last para., you have a very reasonable projection that is at odds with my off-the-wall prediction that all ten players will get "meaningful minutes," which would be more than ten per Duke game, or roughly 300 minutes. We'll find out.

Yes, we'll know soon enough. I have a feeling this season is going to rocket by, and before you can blink it'll be tournament time and we'll be arguing about whether K made a mistake in not giving [insert name here] more minutes in case we need said player in a big game.

I will say that while I think all 10 of our scholarship players are really good, and would start on most teams, I also think our starting unit seems to be orders of magnitude better than the second unit. My guess is we could substitute any number of alternatives at SG without losing effectiveness, but beyond that I feel that subbing out any of the other four positions weakens the team we have out there. And if this gut feeling of mine has any accuracy, it would argue for the shorter rotation, rather than employing all 10 guys.

But I could be wrong. As we've both said, we'll know soon enough.

[jipops]

This was my first time seeing the new group. A few individual observations based on the very small sample:

Winslow appears better than I assumed going in. However, as I had guessed he didn't appear to be an effective perimeter shooter. But he was a monster everywhere else. Slasher is such a cliche term but this kid gets to the hoop quick. And he was all over the defensive boards which is an asset with his apparent ability to put it on the floor right away.

Tyus looks like a nice player with an obvious talent for passing off the bounce. I think I'm still higher on Cook who isn't as talented a passer but appears to do everything else better at this stage.

For the most part, the college game looks like it may be easy for Jahlil. And he's not a below-the-rim big as some authors had suggested.

Matt Jones was off again. I'm getting the impression he is going to be one of these feast or famine guys from outside. I can totally see him hitting five 3's in a row one night and then going 0-for the next 2 or 3 games. His release is just so odd. I'd like to see him drive the ball more. Still, gotta love his D.

Though Rasheed didn't show much I believe he along with Cook will end up being our most reliable perimeter threats. And we'll ultimately need that.

Grayson impressed me both with his outside shot and his off the ball D (keeping in mind it was a div II opponent). I'm still not convinced we'll see him in the rotation at all when January rolls around.

Semi's perimeter touch is a nice sight to see. And he does appear to be a legit 6-8. If only he were able to funnel his physical ability in to defense and rebounding. I think he's capable of giving us some nice moments but at this point I'm thinking he'll mainly see spot duty. That is unless he starts to become very disruptive defensively.

Like Cook and Jahlil, Amile knows exactly what his role is with this team.

Marshall was what I expected. He'll give us good fill-in minutes and be disruptive underneath.

[Henderson]

Different lineups?

We've seen T. Jones and Cook play together, sometimes with a very small lineup that includes Sulaimon at the 3 and Winslow at the 4. Lots of quicks and lots of ball-handling.

We even saw Amile play the 5 for a few possessions yesterday.

What we haven't seen is Okafor and Plumlee playing together in a true twin towers. If we haven't seen it yet, we likely won't.

My favorite moment yesterday was during halftime, in the lobby, where I overheard two CMU fans in line for popcorn. One said to the other, with a tone equal parts awe and incredulity, "they really are that much better than us."

Sulaimon didn't have the break-out game we were hoping for. But it was a step in the right direction, better ball-handling, better passing, better defense, better decision-making.

If Okafor had Winslow's hunger for the ball, he'd lead the nation in rebounding. Not a criticism of Okafor as much as a recognition that Winslow is one seriously tough son-of-a-beta-blocker. K lauded Winslow's efficiency after the game, noting how many points Winslow is scoring versus how little time he has the ball in his hands.

I love the way Cook is leading this team. A senior, incumbent point guard giving up the reins to a freshman? Has bad mojo written all over it. But Cook is not only giving up that role, he's embracing it. And his teammates have noticed.

And Duke is playing D with a level of enthusiasm and intensity not seen last year. Last year's team too often played defense because it was required in the rule book. This year's team plays defense like it wants to inflict some damage.

Yes, it's early, six of the 10 recruited players are under-classmen and CMU isn't Wisconsin. There will be some growing pains. But the foundation is there for some good stuff this season. Real good stuff.

Excellent analysis. Thanks. Loved the anecdote about the CMU fans. I'm glad they made it to the game.

Good point about the recruited players being 60% underclassmen. But most schools are in a similar position. And we have us some of the very best underclassmen in college basketball. Most of the upperclassmen that good from other schools are already gone. Elite NCAA teams are in a world that relies on youth.

[Henderson]

You may think Grayson deserves to be in the rotation, but to say he's "forced his way into the rotation" after two exhibition games against overmatched opponents? It's a stretch. Remember, Alex Murphy started two exhibition games a few years ago, and that didn't even force his way into the rotation in all his years at Duke.

****

I think there's a good chance we'll take an 8-man rotation pretty deep into the season (maybe the whole way), with Marshall as 8th most minutes and Matt as 7th most minutes. And hopefully we'll win a lot of blowouts, so Marshall, Grayson, and Semi can get in some good run, but in close games against good competition (especially once ACC play begins), I haven't seen anything yet that would lead me to believe Coach K will go deeper than 8.


I wrote, "The fourth freshman, Grayson Allen, has forced his way into the rotation." Fair comment -- perhaps I should have said "has made a case for being in the rotation."

****

In your last para., you have a very reasonable projection that is at odds with my off-the-wall prediction that all ten players will get "meaningful minutes," which would be more than ten per Duke game, or roughly 300 minutes. We'll find out.

I find a lot to like about both Kedsy's and Sage Grouse's analyses in this exchange. Coupla points:

1. Grayson Allen is showing himself to be more Division 1 ready in his two exhibition games than Alex Murphy showed himself in, well, ever. Grayson Allen > Alex Murphy. That doesn't guarantee anything, but it's worth noting.

2. I'm sticking with my prediction that, regarding the depth of the rotation, we'll go more than 8 deep. K has more quality at ##9 and 10 than he has in the past. And his comments seem to suggest that he wants to use that depth to put pressure on opponents who cannot keep up the pace and depth. But there is a lot of ball to be played before we know, so I won't be shocked to be wrong.

[Newton_14]

This was my first time seeing the new group. A few individual observations based on the very small sample:

Winslow appears better than I assumed going in. However, as I had guessed he didn't appear to be an effective perimeter shooter. But he was a monster everywhere else. Slasher is such a cliche term but this kid gets to the hoop quick. And he was all over the defensive boards which is an asset with his apparent ability to put it on the floor right away.

Tyus looks like a nice player with an obvious talent for passing off the bounce. I think I'm still higher on Cook who isn't as talented a passer but appears to do everything else better at this stage.

For the most part, the college game looks like it may be easy for Jahlil. And he's not a below-the-rim big as some authors had suggested.

Matt Jones was off again. I'm getting the impression he is going to be one of these feast or famine guys from outside. I can totally see him hitting five 3's in a row one night and then going 0-for the next 2 or 3 games. His release is just so odd. I'd like to see him drive the ball more. Still, gotta love his D.

Though Rasheed didn't show much I believe he along with Cook will end up being our most reliable perimeter threats. And we'll ultimately need that.

Grayson impressed me both with his outside shot and his off the ball D (keeping in mind it was a div II opponent). I'm still not convinced we'll see him in the rotation at all when January rolls around.

Semi's perimeter touch is a nice sight to see. And he does appear to be a legit 6-8. If only he were able to funnel his physical ability in to defense and rebounding. I think he's capable of giving us some nice moments but at this point I'm thinking he'll mainly see spot duty. That is unless he starts to become very disruptive defensively.

Like Cook and Jahlil, Amile knows exactly what his role is with this team.

Marshall was what I expected. He'll give us good fill-in minutes and be disruptive underneath.

Winslow was 3-5 from 3 in the first game. His outside stroke looks fine to me. K was raving about it in the presser. He was 0-3 Saturday but everyone was off Saturday.

I love Quinn but the only thing he does better than Tyus is shoot. Quinn looks great in his new role which is awesome and I think he will be a key player for Duke, but Tyus is a true PG and a great player. He will have some freshman moments along the way but he makes this team so much better than they would be without him. Still say this team is a major upgrade over last season. Having a dominant center, wing guard, and pure point guard, along with mixing in several upperclassmen role players makes this a very cohesive and efficient team. The difference in defense is striking. Major upgrade.

[uh_no]

Winslow was 3-5 from 3 in the first game. His outside stroke looks fine to me. K was raving about it in the presser. He was 0-3 Saturday but everyone was off Saturday.

I love Quinn but the only thing he does better than Tyus is shoot. Quinn looks great in his new role which is awesome and I think he will be a key player for Duke, but Tyus is a true PG and a great player. He will have some freshman moments along the way but he makes this team so much better than they would be without him. Still say this team is a major upgrade over last season. Having a dominant center, wing guard, and pure point guard, along with mixing in several upperclassmen role players makes this a very cohesive and efficient team. The difference in defense is striking. Major upgrade.

I'm not sure everyone being off explains him being off (unless they had some ridiculously killer workout beforehand or something), but sheesh...it was 0-3....even a 50% shooter goes 0-3 once every 8 games or so (assuming 3 shots a game)

[Newton_14]

I'm not sure everyone being off explains him being off (unless they had some ridiculously killer workout beforehand or something), but sheesh...it was 0-3....even a 50% shooter goes 0-3 once every 8 games or so (assuming 3 shots a game)

Agree. It was just one of those games where no kid shot it really well, inside or out. Weird. I thought the 3's Winslow took Saturday were a little rushed and not the quality looks he took in the first game. He is not JJ or anything but I think when all is said and done Winslow will be a formidable shooter from deep. He will hit enough to force teams to guard him closer, opening up the ability to drive which he is quite honestly great at. His combination of strength, power, agility, and grace is pretty unique.

[jimsumner]

Excellent analysis. Thanks. Loved the anecdote about the CMU fans. I'm glad they made it to the game.

Good point about the recruited players being 60% underclassmen. But most schools are in a similar position. And we have us some of the very best underclassmen in college basketball. Most of the upperclassmen that good from other schools are already gone. Elite NCAA teams are in a world that relies on youth.

I seem to recall that we weren't so dismissive of experience when Mercer showed up last March.

Or, to reference a more positive set of memories, Duke managed to do well with a trio of talented seniors in its lineup two seasons ago.

Of course, Duke had three seniors in the rotation last year. So experience sometimes only helps when it is talented experience. I hope that Cook, Sulaimon and Jefferson provide that combination this season.

[Henderson]

I seem to recall that we weren't so dismissive of experience when Mercer showed up last March.

Or, to reference a more positive set of memories, Duke managed to do well with a trio of talented seniors in its lineup two seasons ago.

Of course, Duke had three seniors in the rotation last year. So experience sometimes only helps when it is talented experience. I hope that Cook, Sulaimon and Jefferson provide that combination this season.

I may have missed this, but who is "so dismissive of experience"? I don't recall a post from anyone saying that. But I may have missed a few.

[jipops]

Winslow was 3-5 from 3 in the first game. His outside stroke looks fine to me. K was raving about it in the presser. He was 0-3 Saturday but everyone was off Saturday.

I love Quinn but the only thing he does better than Tyus is shoot. Quinn looks great in his new role which is awesome and I think he will be a key player for Duke, but Tyus is a true PG and a great player. He will have some freshman moments along the way but he makes this team so much better than they would be without him. Still say this team is a major upgrade over last season. Having a dominant center, wing guard, and pure point guard, along with mixing in several upperclassmen role players makes this a very cohesive and efficient team. The difference in defense is striking. Major upgrade.


Quinn also looked like an improvement on D over Tyus, especially off the ball. He is also more vocal and seemed to initiate more ball movement. Again I'm only going by 1 game but the flow just seemed better when Quinn came in, especially in the 1st half. Not going to deny that Tyus has more overall potential with talent, but Quinn being a senior and being pretty talented himself accounts for a lot. Just not yet sold on Tyus having the reigns to be the floor leader all season. We'll see how Presbyterian goes.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Quinn also looked like an improvement on D over Tyus, especially off the ball. He is also more vocal and seemed to initiate more ball movement. Again I'm only going by 1 game but the flow just seemed better when Quinn came in, especially in the 1st half. Not going to deny that Tyus has more overall potential with talent, but Quinn being a senior and being pretty talented himself accounts for a lot. Just not yet sold on Tyus having the reigns to be the floor leader all season. We'll see how Presbyterian goes.

I have to agree with this. Quinn is a much better shooter and leader than Tyus. That can change, but these aren't attributes that drastically change over the course of a season. Tyus is obviously the better passer, driver, and ball-handler, but Quinn has those SG skills. Regarding defense, I've never regarded Quinn as a good defender, but it looks like he's more comfortable guarding the 2 than the 1s (only two exhibition games as evidence. We'll see in 10 days if this is true or not). Quinn also bulked up in the off-season, making him more suitable to guard bigger players. Tyus is very small (compared to his teammates), making his only truly able to guard the 1.

I have surprised myself about how much I like this team. I think there are so many unique pieces and so many interesting combinations.

[Ichabod Drain]

I have to agree with this. Quinn is a much better shooter and leader than Tyus. That can change, but these aren't attributes that drastically change over the course of a season. Tyus is obviously the better passer, driver, and ball-handler, but Quinn has those SG skills. Regarding defense, I've never regarded Quinn as a good defender, but it looks like he's more comfortable guarding the 2 than the 1s (only two exhibition games as evidence. We'll see in 10 days if this is true or not). Quinn also bulked up in the off-season, making him more suitable to guard bigger players. Tyus is very small (compared to his teammates), making his only truly able to guard the 1.

I have surprised myself about how much I like this team. I think there are so many unique pieces and so many interesting combinations.

I agree about the defense and Quinn being a better leader but as the season plays out I expect Tyus to start shooting the ball well. In his last season of EYBL, Tyus shot 46% from three and had an overall field goal percentage of 57%. I also remember him draining numerous threes in the few high school games of his I saw.

It may play out different in college but I expect Tyus to be a respectable shooter. Which is the same I expect of Quinn.

[tux]

I agree about the defense and Quinn being a better leader but as the season plays out I expect Tyus to start shooting the ball well. In his last season of EYBL, Tyus shot 46% from three and had an overall field goal percentage of 57%. I also remember him draining numerous threes in the few high school games of his I saw.

It may play out different in college but I expect Tyus to be a respectable shooter. Which is the same I expect of Quinn.


I agree. I think Tyus is rightly concentrating on all the other PG duties as he makes the transition from HS to college ball. It's going to be a learning curve and his shot may suffer at first, but I expect him to be Duke's starting and primary PG this season. From what I saw at the open practice and in the first exhibition (n=2, so perhaps completely wrong), the team's ceiling is much much higher with Tyus at PG. Not to knock Quinn, but he is an average creator on offense. He is a good shooter and has a ton of experience, which I hope shows up on D where -- like Amile -- he can provide leadership and great communication. So, Quinn will be a big part of our success this season but the arrival of Tyus has upgraded our PG position quite a bit IMO. This may be a bit hyperbolic, but it would be like K deciding NOT to hand the reigns to Hurley in 89-90. Tyus is an elite PG; Quinn is a combo-guard whose talents show up more off the ball...

[Kedsy]

Tyus is an elite PG; Quinn is a combo-guard whose talents show up more off the ball...

I agree and disagree. Tyus seems to be a top-notch PG, and the team does seem to run better with him running the show. I suppose you could describe Quinn as a combo guard, but that may only be because Coach K has chosen to use him at SG this season. Up until now he has appeared to be a "pure point."

What I don't necessarily agree with is that Quinn's "talents show up more off the ball." Instead I think that Quinn's ability to play off the ball and shoot is exactly what this team needs and so presumably that will be his primary role this season. Or, you might say his off-the-ball talents show up more on this team. To me, there's a difference.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I agree and disagree. Tyus seems to be a top-notch PG, and the team does seem to run better with him running the show. I suppose you could describe Quinn as a combo guard, but that may only be because Coach K has chosen to use him at SG this season. Up until now he has appeared to be a "pure point."

What I don't necessarily agree with is that Quinn's "talents show up more off the ball." Instead I think that Quinn's ability to play off the ball and shoot is exactly what this team needs and so presumably that will be his primary role this season. Or, you might say his off-the-ball talents show up more on this team. To me, there's a difference.

Yeah, I think Quinn gets a bad rap for his PG abilities. Quinn is a very good PG in college; Tyus may just be that elite.

Here are some career assists-per-40-min for a few Duke PGs in the last few 10-15 years or so:

-Chris Duhon: 6.8
-Nolan Smith: 4.2
-Jon Scheyer: 3.7
-Greg Paulus: 5.0
-Quinn Cook: 6.1

Some of these comparisons aren't fair because they are combo guards (Smith, Scheyer) and some player's last couple of years were gawd awful (Paulus), but I think this shows that Quinn Cook is a better distributor than people think. Quinn's assist-to-turnover ratio is an impressive 2.6! Jon Scheyer, who everyone praises as being a great protector of the ball (and he is) had a career ratio of 2.1.

This team may have a higher ceiling with Tyus as the primary point, but Quinn provides good shooting, solid distribution, and excellent ball protection.

[uh_no]

Yeah, I think Quinn gets a bad rap for his PG abilities. Quinn is a very good PG in college; Tyus may just be that elite.

Here are some career assists-per-40-min for a few Duke PGs in the last few 10-15 years or so:

-Chris Duhon: 6.8
-Nolan Smith: 4.2
-Jon Scheyer: 3.7
-Greg Paulus: 5.0
-Quinn Cook: 6.1

Some of these comparisons aren't fair because they are combo guards (Smith, Scheyer) and some player's last couple of years were gawd awful (Paulus), but I think this shows that Quinn Cook is a better distributor than people think. Quinn's assist-to-turnover ratio is an impressive 2.6! Jon Scheyer, who everyone praises as being a great protector of the ball (and he is) had a career ratio of 2.1.

This team may have a higher ceiling with Tyus as the primary point, but Quinn provides good shooting, solid distribution, and excellent ball protection.

It's certainly not a fair comparison for Jon and Nolan who did not play point guard for most of the careers, as Quinn has.

[Kedsy]

It's certainly not a fair comparison for Jon and Nolan who did not play point guard for most of the careers, as Quinn has.

True, but the point still holds. Duke hasn't had anyone with more assists per 40 than Quinn since Chris Duhon. Even Kyrie Irving, who only played 11 games, had assists per 40 (6.20) almost exactly the same as Quinn's career a/40 (6.16). Also, if Quinn maintains his assist/turnover ratio over the course of this season, he'll leave Duke with the all-time career record in that stat, with a 2.64 a/to ratio.

In other words, Quinn's a "real" PG who happens to be expanding his skillset to play SG for the good of the team.

[flyingdutchdevil]

True, but the point still holds. Duke hasn't had anyone with more assists per 40 than Quinn since Chris Duhon. Even Kyrie Irving, who only played 11 games, had assists per 40 (6.20) almost exactly the same as Quinn's career a/40 (6.16). Also, if Quinn maintains his assist/turnover ratio over the course of this season, he'll leave Duke with the all-time career record in that stat, with a 2.64 a/to ratio.

In other words, Quinn's a "real" PG who happens to be expanding his skillset to play SG for the good of the team.

I think many DBRers are jaded by many of Quinn's antics, including wearing his emotions-on-his-sleeve and hero-ball that we saw two-thirds of last season. Also, he hasn't been a good defender to date, but I hope that his ability to guard slower SGs (compared to the speedy PGs) will help silence his critics.

Quinn just doesn't get enough credit, and his mentality change ("giving" the reigns to Tyus) coupled with his very good 3pt shooting should really change that this year.

Call me a huge Quinn fan.

[kAzE]

Didn't see the game, but I imagine it's hard to take any conclusions from a game vs such an overmatched opponent. Nice to see Tyus get 5 steals though, I'm sure those must have led to some sweet fast break opportunities. I can't wait to watch him running the fast break with Winslow and our other guards out on the wings.

[Kedsy]

Didn't see the game, but I imagine it's hard to take any conclusions from a game vs such an overmatched opponent. Nice to see Tyus get 5 steals though, I sure those must have led to some sweet fast break opportunities. I can't wait to watch him running the fast break with Winslow and our other guards out on the wings.

Some of them were really nice steals. Tyus may not have super-quick defensive feet, but his hands seem plenty quick.

[Ichabod Drain]

Some of them were really nice steals. Tyus may not have super-quick defensive feet, but his hands seem plenty quick.

So does his brain.

[sagegrouse]

I think many DBRers are jaded by many of Quinn's antics, including wearing his emotions-on-his-sleeve and hero-ball that we saw two-thirds of last season. Also, he hasn't been a good defender to date, but I hope that his ability to guard slower SGs (compared to the speedy PGs) will help silence his critics.

Quinn just doesn't get enough credit, and his mentality change ("giving" the reigns to Tyus) coupled with his very good 3pt shooting should really change that this year.

Call me a huge Quinn fan.

Quinn is a really good college player, but Duke needs to upgrade across the board, and we are doing so, especially in the back court:

Replacing Quinn, Rasheed, TT and Andre with a more experienced Quinn and Rasheed plus Tyus, Matt and Grayson. (Matt averaged only about 7 MPG last year.) We should be much, much stronger, even if Grayson is not a factor (I think he will be), and I don't mean to denigrate Tyler's capabilities and leadership.

In the front court, it's a closer call:

Replacing Amile, Jabari, Rodney, and Josh (9 starts) with Jahlil, a more experienced Amile (and not in the C position), Justice, MP3, and Semi. (MP3 played about 7 MPG last year (all games) and Semi fewer than three.) The front court will be stronger if we can replace Jabari's and Rodney's offense. The defense should be better.

I love the behemouths in the middle, but college hoops seem to be a guard's game -- and I am looking for big things from our back court.

[Kedsy]

In the front court, it's a closer call:

Replacing Amile, Jabari, Rodney, and Josh (9 starts) with Jahlil, a more experienced Amile (and not in the C position), Justice, MP3, and Semi. (MP3 played about 7 MPG last year (all games) and Semi fewer than three.) The front court will be stronger if we can replace Jabari's and Rodney's offense. The defense should be better.

Slight correction: The defense should be WAY better, primarily due to improvement in the frontcourt (counting, as you seem to be, Justise in the frontcourt). Personally, I don't see it as a close call at all.

On offense, I think it's difficult to separate our backcourt from our frontcourt. We're losing a lot of make-your-own offense in the halfcourt -- nobody we have will be as good as Jabari in that regard, and probably not Rodney either -- but we have team offensive advantages that last year's team simply didn't have, including the Tyus/Jahlil connection, the ability to play inside out, and hopefully a lot of fastbreak points and offense caused by defense.

[rsvman]

....... I also think our starting unit seems to be orders of magnitude better than the second unit...

Some of you will see this as nitpicking, but could we make it so that at least some words retain their meaning? There's no way the starting unit is 100 times (minimum) better than the second unit. There's got to be a way to express the crux of your argument without completely destroying the meaning of a perfectly good phrase.

Maybe you could write "our starting unit seems to be appreciably better than the second unit," or "our starting unit seems to be clearly superior to the second unit," or "the starting unit seems to be a definite upgrade," or whatever.

Sorry for being the semantics police, but this one really stood out to me.

[BD80]

Originally Posted by Kedsy:

"....... I also think our starting unit seems to be orders of magnitude better than the second unit..."

Some of you will see this as nitpicking, but could we make it so that at least some words retain their meaning? There's no way the starting unit is 100 times (minimum) better than the second unit. There's got to be a way to express the crux of your argument without completely destroying the meaning of a perfectly good phrase.

Maybe you could write "our starting unit seems to be appreciably better than the second unit," or "our starting unit seems to be clearly superior to the second unit," or "the starting unit seems to be a definite upgrade," or whatever.

Sorry for being the semantics police, but this one really stood out to me.

Such a digital/base 10 way of looking at things.

In assessing basketball talent, perhaps orders of magnitude are more like:

High School Starter
Division III player
Division III starter
Division II starter
Division I scholarship player
Division I Major Conference scholarship player
Division I Major Conference starter
Division I Major Conference All-Conference
Division I All American
Pro player
Pro rotation player
Pro starter
Pro All-Star
Pro HOF
Bill Russell

[Kedsy]

There's no way the starting unit is 100 times (minimum) better than the second unit.

I like BD's explanation. But even if you want to measure quantitatively with numbers, it still depends on your definition of "better" and how you measure it, doesn't it?

For example, if you look at the chances of losing our first NCAA tournament game, I think our second unit might snag a 5-seed in the NCAAT. Historically, 5-seeds lose their first tourney game 35% of the time. Our current starting unit looks like a 1-seed to me, and historically 1-seeds have lost their first NCAAT game 0% of the time, thus if you define "better" by a team's historic chances of avoiding a first-round upset, the first unit appears to be infinitely better than the second unit, and while infinity can't be specifically defined, it's certainly bigger than 100.

Having said all that, I exaggerated in my earlier post. Hyperbole for the sake of making a point. Lighten up, Francis.

[uh_no]

I like BD's explanation. But even if you want to measure quantitatively with numbers, it still depends on your definition of "better" and how you measure it, doesn't it?

For example, if you look at the chances of losing our first NCAA tournament game, I think our second unit might snag a 5-seed in the NCAAT. Historically, 5-seeds lose their first tourney game 35% of the time. Our current starting unit looks like a 1-seed to me, and historically 1-seeds have lost their first NCAAT game 0% of the time, thus if you define "better" by a team's historic chances of avoiding a first-round upset, the first unit appears to be infinitely better than the second unit, and while infinity can't be specifically defined, it's certainly bigger than 100.

Having said all that, I exaggerated in my earlier post. Hyperbole for the sake of making a point. Lighten up, Francis.

I think a good metric would be % of games won between the two squads you are comparing.

If some squad lost only 10% of the time to another squad, they could be said to be "10x better", and 1% "100x better", .1% "1000" etc

making the formula p(losing)^-1 = "betterness"

so if the starters beat the backup guys, say 3 out of every 4 games, you might say they are "4x better"

this is just one metric.

[BD80]

I like BD's explanation. ...

Got your back ...

Or, in honor of those who served, got your six. Thanks to you all.

[rsvman]

....For example, if you look at the chances of losing our first NCAA tournament game, I think our second unit might snag a 5-seed in the NCAAT. Historically, 5-seeds lose their first tourney game 35% of the time. Our current starting unit looks like a 1-seed to me, and historically 1-seeds have lost their first NCAAT game 0% of the time, thus if you define "better" by a team's historic chances of avoiding a first-round upset, the first unit appears to be infinitely better than the second unit, and while infinity can't be specifically defined, it's certainly bigger than 100.
........

Actually, it wouldn't be infinity, it would be undefined; that is, if it were true that the chances of a #1 seed losing in the first round were truly zero. But they're not.

It hasn't happened yet, but that doesn't mean the chance equals zero. In fact, there's a pretty simple calculation that can be done to estimate the highest risk of losing that could be missed by the known sample size. In other words, one can never know that the chances for a number one seed to lose in the first round are actually zero, but the more observations we compile, the more we can narrow the confidence interval. A crude mathetmatical approximation can be made by dividing the number 3 by the number of observations, and then multiplying by 100. This will give a percentage that you can be 95% sure represents the highest likelihood of a first-round loss by a 1 seed. If you use the number 5 as the numerator instead, you can approximate with 99% certainty.

The tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985. By my calculations that means there have been 116 number one seeds in this era. None has lost. The calculation leads to this conclusion: I am 95% certain that the chance of a loss by a number one seed is less than or equal to 2.59 percent, and I am 99 percent certain that the chance of a loss is less than or equal to 4.31 percent.

Pretty good odds, to be sure, but not zero. 35% divided by 2.6% equals 13.5. So, maybe the first team is one order of magnitude better than the second team? <insert wink emoticon here>



Wow. I think Kedsy's right. I need to lighten up.

[Kedsy]

Wow. I think Kedsy's right. I need to lighten up.

No worries. It's all good.

Actually, what might be best is I said our second unit looks like a 5-seed and nobody blinked.

[jimsumner]

I may have missed this, but who is "so dismissive of experience"? I don't recall a post from anyone saying that. But I may have missed a few.

"Elite NCAA teams are in a world that relies on youth."

Duke was a supposedly elite NCAA team last season that lost to a mid-major that started five seniors. Experience trumped talent.

Duke's best player in 2012 was a freshman. That team lost its NCAA opener.

Duke's best player in 2014 was a freshman. That team lost its NCAA opener.

In between, Duke had a team with three outstanding seniors. That team won three NCAA Tournament games.

Duke's 2010 NCAA title team started three seniors and two juniors down the stretch.

At least from a recent Duke perspective, the trend lines suggest that experience does matter. In fact, Duke has never had a Final Four team without at least one upper-class All-ACC player. Never.

So, as good as the freshmen have looked in two games against over-matched D-2 teams, they are still freshmen and there may be a Mercer or two lurking in March. That's why, IMO, Cook, Jefferson and Sulaimon need to be major contributors this season.

[COYS]

"Elite NCAA teams are in a world that relies on youth."

Duke was a supposedly elite NCAA team last season that lost to a mid-major that started five seniors. Experience trumped talent.

Duke's best player in 2012 was a freshman. That team lost its NCAA opener.

Duke's best player in 2014 was a freshman. That team lost its NCAA opener.

In between, Duke had a team with three outstanding seniors. That team won three NCAA Tournament games.

So, as good as the freshmen have looked in two games against over-matched D-2 teams, they are still freshmen and there may be a Mercer or two lurking in March. That's why, IMO, Cook, Jefferson and Sulaimon need to be major contributors this season.

I completely agree with this. Grayson, Semi, and Marshall all benefit from being either super athletic/strong (Semi and Grayson) or very tall and mobile (Marshall). Those advantages really come out against smaller, slower D-2 teams. I think all three of those guys can continue to look good, this season. However, ultimately I think that's going to depend in large part on how well Quinn and Rasheed play with them on the court. Grayson can shoot, but he's probably not going to be creating his own shot too much this year, apart from the occasional pump-fake and drive (or back-screen aley-oop which we saw once on Saturday). He'll need Rasheed and Quinn to get him the ball in good positions and make sure the offense isn't too stagnant when Jahlil is off the court. Semi is in the same boat. He can hit threes, but he needs someone to get him the ball. Marshall is a great energy guy, but he'll have a lot less freedom to be that ball of energy if Amile isn't playing good defense beside him.

Similarly, our three star freshmen will need Amile to help anchor the defense. Matt is looking to be much improved, but there are still things Rasheed can do that Matt can't.

The early returns look really good for Amile, in my opinion. His defense has been outstanding. There's no doubt in my mind that he's been our best defender so far. He gets his rotations right, boxes out, acquits himself well if he's stuck guarding a smaller player on a switch, and . . . best of all . . . communicates. Quinn has also played well. There's no indication he is pouting about coming off the bench. He's been confident in his shot, too, which we will absolutely need him to be. Finally, he's done a good job taking care of the ball and getting the second unit involved.

Rasheed is the enigma, of course. He suffers from being good at a lot of things but great at nothing, so far. He's a good slasher, but often over penetrates and makes the wrong decision. He's a good defender but not so spectacular that he demands playing time. He's a solid shooter but so far hasn't shown a real propensity for the type of catch and shoot opportunities that are a key to our offense. He's a sometimes a solid distributor but has trouble balancing creating for himself with creating for others and who occasionally doesn't value the ball. If he can become just a little bit better in every category OR if he really takes off in any one of these areas, he really has the chance to elevate the team.

Bottom line is that this team has a TON of potential. But I think we reach our ceiling only if Quinn, Amile, and Rasheed excel in their roles.

[kAzE]

"Elite NCAA teams are in a world that relies on youth."

Duke was a supposedly elite NCAA team last season that lost to a mid-major that started five seniors. Experience trumped talent.

Duke's best player in 2012 was a freshman. That team lost its NCAA opener.

Duke's best player in 2014 was a freshman. That team lost its NCAA opener.

In between, Duke had a team with three outstanding seniors. That team won three NCAA Tournament games.

Duke's 2010 NCAA title team started three seniors and two juniors down the stretch.

At least from a recent Duke perspective, the trend lines suggest that experience does matter. In fact, Duke has never had a Final Four team without at least one upper-class ACC player. Never.

So, as good as the freshmen have looked in two games against over-matched D-2 teams, they are still freshmen and there may be a Mercer or two lurking in March. That's why, IMO, Cook, Jefferson and Sulaimon need to be major contributors this season.

I don't think you can put too much stock in either school of thought. Yes, experience helps, but talent also really matters. Jabari was our best player last year, but the first round NCAA exit had less to do with him individually than the team's defense as a whole. UK also got to the national championship starting 5 freshmen. I think the freshmen on our team this year are capable starters at this level, and are going to be good enough on both ends of the floor (Tyus Jones is underrated defensively) that I'd be pretty confident to say right now that we will get past the first round. Okafor is a once in a generation big man, Winslow is a glue guy who can do everything outside of shooting 3s at an elite level (in college), and Tyus is the best pass-first point guard that we've had since Bobby Hurley. (Yeah I said it, he's better than Duhon, and you can flame me 15 games in if I'm wrong, but I don't think I am) I don't know how high our ceiling is, but the floor should be much higher than last year.

[Troublemaker]

Tyus vs Quinn - A November 10th assessment. (I don't think it will change too much over the next few months). For Tyus, I'm relying some on high school / FIBA games I've seen him in, not just his brief time at Duke so far.

Quinn is great at finishing at the rim on his drives, creating angles and spins off the glass that drop the ball into the basket. Among small guards in the NCAA, he is elite at this skill. If an opposing big man comes over on his drive, he's capable of making the dumpoff pass or finding a cutter for a layup. Overall, he's much better driving his man 1-on-1 than he is using the pick-and-roll or making reads or passes against zone. Quinn is Duke's best shooter this year and he's been great at limiting turnovers throughout his career. On defense, he's pretty good at ball pressure and surprisingly effective off-the-ball despite his small stature; he's guarded Marcus Paige the best out of all of Duke's guards the past couple of years, and Paige goes off-the-ball a lot.

Tyus has elite court vision and possesses longer arms and much bigger hands than Quinn, attributes that combine to allow Tyus to make a wider variety of passes than Quinn. Tyus is terrific on the fastbreak and will consistently threaten defenses for 94 feet with his throw-ahead passing and calm, sneaky fast push. Tyus is great on the pick-and-roll (although we haven't seen it displayed much at Duke yet). If a roller comes open, this season the roller will receive a good pass that he can handle for a finish at the rim. Tyus can read a zone defense, use pass fakes to move the zone according to his whim, and penetrate a zone with his passing. On defense, Tyus uses quick hands and anticipation to rack up steals. So far, I think he's been pretty good on-the-ball.

[Saratoga2]

What we have seen so far only hints at what will happen as the season really begins. I think the first game for which a true assessment of the teams potentail will be Michigan State on Nov. 18th. In that game, I expect Jalil to be backed up by Marshall for about 15 minutes. Amile should start and be backed up by Semi and possibly Justise to a lesser degree. Justise will likely to starting at small forward and probably be backed up by Matt. We have a lot of options at SG. We have Rasheed as the likely starter but any of Grayson, Matt or Quinn could fill in there. A big question is whether we will want to play two small PGs together and whether that would impact our defense. Will we start Quinn or Tyus? I would think early in the season it will be Quinn but both will get solid minutes at the point.

It is a happy situation for Duke fans to have a team loaded with talent and athleticism. Will our defense be better this year? I certainly think so. Will our rebounding improve? Probably. Will our ball pressure cause more turnovers? Probably.

[CDu]

I think many DBRers are jaded by many of Quinn's antics, including wearing his emotions-on-his-sleeve and hero-ball that we saw two-thirds of last season. Also, he hasn't been a good defender to date, but I hope that his ability to guard slower SGs (compared to the speedy PGs) will help silence his critics.

Quinn just doesn't get enough credit, and his mentality change ("giving" the reigns to Tyus) coupled with his very good 3pt shooting should really change that this year.

Call me a huge Quinn fan.

Cook is a complicated case. His results each November through January look amazing: 5.85 apg, 2.82 a/to. But his results down the stretch get quite a bit less amazing: 3.43 apg, 1.94 a/to.

On average, his line looks pretty good. And it isn't like 3.4 apg and a 2:1 a:to ratio is terrible. But each of the last two years as a starter, he's shown the same trends early vs late. So when we've needed him to be at his playmaking best, he hasn't always been there.

I think his new role is going to be great for him. He won't have the pressure to create for others nearly as much as he did as the starter and only true PG on the roster. Now, he can pick his spots: score when he wants, pass when he wants. Here's hoping it portends great things for this season.

[Wander]

Cook is a classic case of a good player whose reputation has suffered because of unreasonable expectations. There was a thread on here a couple years back titled something like "Could Quinn Cook be the best point guard in the country this season?" Which was always ridiculous. Sort of like a mini-Paulus situation. He's a good and not great player who will probably have an important role to play on the team as a backup PG and all-around combo guard.

[Kedsy]

What we have seen so far only hints at what will happen as the season really begins. I think the first game for which a true assessment of the teams potentail will be Michigan State on Nov. 18th. In that game, I expect Jalil to be backed up by Marshall for about 15 minutes. Amile should start and be backed up by Semi and possibly Justise to a lesser degree. Justise will likely to starting at small forward and probably be backed up by Matt. We have a lot of options at SG. We have Rasheed as the likely starter but any of Grayson, Matt or Quinn could fill in there. A big question is whether we will want to play two small PGs together and whether that would impact our defense. Will we start Quinn or Tyus? I would think early in the season it will be Quinn but both will get solid minutes at the point.

It is a happy situation for Duke fans to have a team loaded with talent and athleticism. Will our defense be better this year? I certainly think so. Will our rebounding improve? Probably. Will our ball pressure cause more turnovers? Probably.

No offense intended, but this post sounds like it was written three weeks ago. At this point, we can be pretty sure that Jahlil will play as many minutes as he can handle (and Marshall will pick up most of the slack), which barring foul trouble has a decent chance of being more than 25 mpg. Things could obviously change between now and eight days from now, but unless he plays himself out of it, Matt appears to be the frontrunner to start at SG. Rasheed may play his way into the starting lineup by next Tuesday, but to say that's "likely" is overstating the case. Justise will almost certainly start at SF, and will be "backed up" by one of our many SGs shifting over to SF. Barring something completely unforeseen, Tyus will start over Quinn (though it's possible Quinn beats out Matt and Rasheed and will also start at the SG spot, though like Rasheed I wouldn't say it's likely at this point).

Our defense should be significantly better. Rebounding, especially defensive rebounding, may be a concern, and in any event last year's squad was a pretty good rebounding team by Duke standards, so saying this year's team will "probably" be better may be going out on a limb. I agree with you about increased ball pressure and turnovers.

I also completely agree with you that we Duke fans are in a happy situation.

[sagegrouse]

Slight correction: The defense should be WAY better, primarily due to improvement in the frontcourt (counting, as you seem to be, Justise in the frontcourt). Personally, I don't see it as a close call at all.

On offense, I think it's difficult to separate our backcourt from our frontcourt. We're losing a lot of make-your-own offense in the halfcourt -- nobody we have will be as good as Jabari in that regard, and probably not Rodney either -- but we have team offensive advantages that last year's team simply didn't have, including the Tyus/Jahlil connection, the ability to play inside out, and hopefully a lot of fastbreak points and offense caused by defense.

As usual, we are in violent agreement! The defense should be WAY lot better, but I guess I'd like the month of November to see if the magnitude of the difference.

I put Justise with the front court because be looks like a banger -- and his second most likely position (if we had positions) is PF not SG -- but I digress.

I agree that we should have a lot more offensive options due to Tyus, the defensive pressure and depth on the perimeter.

[BD80]

Anyone see Caleb Swanigan at the game?

http://duke.247sports.com/Bolt/5-Star-Center-Caleb-Swanigan-visiting-Duke-today-32720542

[jacone21]

Such a digital/base 10 way of looking at things.

In assessing basketball talent, perhaps orders of magnitude are more like:

High School Starter
Division III player
Division III starter
Division II starter
Division I scholarship player
Division I Major Conference scholarship player
Division I Major Conference starter
Division I Major Conference All-Conference
Division I All American
Pro player
Pro rotation player
Pro starter
Pro All-Star
Pro HOF
Bill Russell
Patrick Davidson

You left one out.. so I added it for you.

[kAzE]

I completely agree with this. Grayson, Semi, and Marshall all benefit from being either super athletic/strong (Semi and Grayson) or very tall and mobile (Marshall). Those advantages really come out against smaller, slower D-2 teams. I think all three of those guys can continue to look good, this season. However, ultimately I think that's going to depend in large part on how well Quinn and Rasheed play with them on the court. Grayson can shoot, but he's probably not going to be creating his own shot too much this year, apart from the occasional pump-fake and drive (or back-screen aley-oop which we saw once on Saturday). He'll need Rasheed and Quinn to get him the ball in good positions and make sure the offense isn't too stagnant when Jahlil is off the court. Semi is in the same boat. He can hit threes, but he needs someone to get him the ball. Marshall is a great energy guy, but he'll have a lot less freedom to be that ball of energy if Amile isn't playing good defense beside him.

Similarly, our three star freshmen will need Amile to help anchor the defense. Matt is looking to be much improved, but there are still things Rasheed can do that Matt can't.

The early returns look really good for Amile, in my opinion. His defense has been outstanding. There's no doubt in my mind that he's been our best defender so far. He gets his rotations right, boxes out, acquits himself well if he's stuck guarding a smaller player on a switch, and . . . best of all . . . communicates. Quinn has also played well. There's no indication he is pouting about coming off the bench. He's been confident in his shot, too, which we will absolutely need him to be. Finally, he's done a good job taking care of the ball and getting the second unit involved.

Rasheed is the enigma, of course. He suffers from being good at a lot of things but great at nothing, so far. He's a good slasher, but often over penetrates and makes the wrong decision. He's a good defender but not so spectacular that he demands playing time. He's a solid shooter but so far hasn't shown a real propensity for the type of catch and shoot opportunities that are a key to our offense. He's a sometimes a solid distributor but has trouble balancing creating for himself with creating for others and who occasionally doesn't value the ball. If he can become just a little bit better in every category OR if he really takes off in any one of these areas, he really has the chance to elevate the team.

Bottom line is that this team has a TON of potential. But I think we reach our ceiling only if Quinn, Amile, and Rasheed excel in their roles.

Correct me if I'm wrong . . but wouldn't our depth at both guard positions be sufficient to offset a poor stretch by Quinn and/or Rasheed? Obviously, those guys need to be leaders and to hold the younger guys accountable, but I think the only upperclassman who we absolutely need to play well on a consistent basis is Amile.

Of course to reach our "ceiling," EVERYONE would need to play to their potential, but I think we've got so many guys who can fill in at the 1 or 2, there's the luxury of being able to "ride the hot hand." The team would certainly be better off with the more experienced guys contributing, but if Rasheed is having another poor stretch last he did early last year (and I'm not saying he will, but if he did), Matt/Quinn/Justise/Grayson can all fill in as a wing player to handle those minutes without much drop-off. The guys who we can't replace are Jahlil and Amile, other than that, there's a lot of quality depth.

[Newton_14]

No offense intended, but this post sounds like it was written three weeks ago. At this point, we can be pretty sure that Jahlil will play as many minutes as he can handle (and Marshall will pick up most of the slack), which barring foul trouble has a decent chance of being more than 25 mpg. Things could obviously change between now and eight days from now, but unless he plays himself out of it, Matt appears to be the frontrunner to start at SG. Rasheed may play his way into the starting lineup by next Tuesday, but to say that's "likely" is overstating the case. Justise will almost certainly start at SF, and will be "backed up" by one of our many SGs shifting over to SF. Barring something completely unforeseen, Tyus will start over Quinn (though it's possible Quinn beats out Matt and Rasheed and will also start at the SG spot, though like Rasheed I wouldn't say it's likely at this point).

Our defense should be significantly better. Rebounding, especially defensive rebounding, may be a concern, and in any event last year's squad was a pretty good rebounding team by Duke standards, so saying this year's team will "probably" be better may be going out on a limb. I agree with you about increased ball pressure and turnovers.

I also completely agree with you that we Duke fans are in a happy situation.

Yeah, after what we have seen to date I think it pretty obvious the starting 5 for the start of the season is Tyus, Matt, Winslow, Amile, Jahlil. Unless something drastically changes in practices this week which to be honest would be shocking, that is your starting 5 until someone slips or one of the bench players go nuts in practice. Not likely.

The only at risk position is maybe Matt at SG but even there, we have seen nothing in CTC, Open Practice, 2 exhibition games that suggests someone else should start over Matt. As of right now the only person you would even think has a shot at that starting spot in the next few days is Quinn. He has played well. Outside of that I would be scratching my head in disbelief to see someone else trot out there for the opening tip Friday. (Assume none of the guys this year have the Rodney Hood pregame upchuck butterflies :)

I do think Quinn will play a lot of minutes and is solidly in the rotation. No argument there at all. Rasheed will get minutes but better play well. MP3 will get minutes behind Jahlil, but I expect to see times where K goes small when Jahlil rests vs just trotting MP3 out every single time. Especially late in games. Semi and Grayson will play Friday but may or may not see the floor against Mich St. I hope they do but this is K we are talking about it...

I am anxious to see the Mich St game. I want to see how K handles the rotation and how well all of the guys play against that level of competition.

[ACCBBallFan]

No offense intended, but this post sounds like it was written three weeks ago. At this point, we can be pretty sure that Jahlil will play as many minutes as he can handle (and Marshall will pick up most of the slack), which barring foul trouble has a decent chance of being more than 25 mpg. Things could obviously change between now and eight days from now, but unless he plays himself out of it, Matt appears to be the frontrunner to start at SG. Rasheed may play his way into the starting lineup by next Tuesday, but to say that's "likely" is overstating the case. Justise will almost certainly start at SF, and will be "backed up" by one of our many SGs shifting over to SF. Barring something completely unforeseen, Tyus will start over Quinn (though it's possible Quinn beats out Matt and Rasheed and will also start at the SG spot, though like Rasheed I wouldn't say it's likely at this point).

Our defense should be significantly better. Rebounding, especially defensive rebounding, may be a concern, and in any event last year's squad was a pretty good rebounding team by Duke standards, so saying this year's team will "probably" be better may be going out on a limb. I agree with you about increased ball pressure and turnovers.

I also completely agree with you that we Duke fans are in a happy situation.

I like to think of Duke as having 7 starters.

For a big game like Michigan State, it may make sense to start the experienced senior Quinn and junior Sheed to give the Jones boys 4 minutes to adapt to the environment pageantry.

In fact I advocate alternating each duo every TV timout regardless of which pair starts to maintain a constant full court pressure with no one conserving energy as has happened a lot past few seasons.

Alternating starting combos also keeps both on their toes.

Matt with Tyus makes sense to avoid having two height challenged combos neither known for their defense and not pairing two guys who each need the ball a lot to be effective for different reasons. Tyus to keep the offense moving especially to another guy who commands the ball Jah, and Sheed needing the ball primarily to create off the bounce, which makes Tyus and Jah less effective if he does.

Coach K has commented several times how easy Matt and Justise are to play with, Jefferson too, the flip side of saying Sheed is not easy to have on the floor the same time as both Jah and Tyus with only 1 ball to share across 3 guys who need it a lot, two's company but three's a crowd syndrome.

Sheed and Quinn are used to playing together and complement each other very well on both ends, thus always pairing a good defender with an adequate defender. It's a different look but Jah, Jefferson and Justise paired with Sheed/Quinn can be equally effective as those 3 bigs with the other two members of the Duke Blue J-Crew, and more effective than Sheed in for Justise or Matt.

The exception may be when protecting a lead having as many ball handlers that can shoot FT's as possible.

[mo.st.dukie]

I like to think of Duke as having 7 starters.

For a big game like Michigan State, it may make sense to start the experienced senior Quinn and junior Sheed to give the Jones boys 4 minutes to adapt to the environment pageantry.



IMO Tyus and Matt need as much time and experience starting in big games as they can get, we will need them to have that come tournament time (and I really want to beat Wisconsin). Might as well start with Michigan State, if they show nerves and shakiness in the first 4 minutes the score couldn't possibly be out of reach that subs Cook and Sulaimon couldn't make a up the difference. I think our ceiling is higher in the long run with the underclassmen as starters setting the defensive tone and also being more imposing with size and athleticism, the upperclassmen Cook and Sulaimon providing explosive scoring off the bench. Throw the young players in the deep end and see if they sink or swim, give them that learning experience early and often.

[gep]

... In fact I advocate alternating each duo every TV timout regardless of which pair starts to maintain a constant full court pressure with no one conserving energy as has happened a lot past few seasons.

This reminded me of what Zoubs said in the 2nd half of the 2010 season... Something like he and Lance played the first 4 minutes *all out*, knowing full well that at the first substitution, he and Lance can go to the bench for a breather, and the Plumlee boys would then take over... and not have to worry. Possibly Matt/Tyrus and Quinn/Rasheed can provide the same spark for this team.

[flyingdutchdevil]

...and two things really stood out:

1) Winslow is extremely assertive / aggressive. If there is a shot to take that is a good shot, he'll take it. It's great to see because he need those kinds of players on this team. I thought Winslow was going to be like a Elliott Williams-type player. He's more like a Kyle Singler-type player.

2) Okafor is a willing and excellent passer. His hands are so ginormous, he is perfect at palming the ball and whipping it to an open guard (he loves passing to Winslow). Okafor probably could have taken it to the hole, but he's so incredibly smart. I can't remember the last time that he had a legit big man who could pass. MP2 didn't pass much, neither did Shelden much. Did Boozer? I can't remember. If Okafor keeps this up, he'll have plenty of assists by year end.

[mattman91]

...and two things really stood out:

1) Winslow is extremely assertive / aggressive. If there is a shot to take that is a good shot, he'll take it. It's great to see because he need those kinds of players on this team. I thought Winslow was going to be like a Elliott Williams-type player. He's more like a Kyle Singler-type player.

2) Okafor is a willing and excellent passer. His hands are so ginormous, he is perfect at palming the ball and whipping it to an open guard (he loves passing to Winslow). Okafor probably could have taken it to the hole, but he's so incredibly smart. I can't remember the last time that he had a legit big man who could pass. MP2 didn't pass much, neither did Shelden much. Did Boozer? I can't remember. If Okafor keeps this up, he'll have plenty of assists by year end.

Zoubek? McBob?

[flyingdutchdevil]

Zoubek? McBob?

Zoubek had one type of effective pass: offensive rebound and passing to an open guard. It was an incredibly effective pass, but it's not the typical "passing big man" that I'm thinking of.

McBob absolutely fits the bill. Thank you.

[Kedsy]

I can't remember the last time that he had a legit big man who could pass. MP2 didn't pass much, neither did Shelden much. Did Boozer? I can't remember. If Okafor keeps this up, he'll have plenty of assists by year end.

Mason had 1.9 apg his senior year, which is pretty good for a big man (Christian Laettner had 2.0 apg his senior year, for example, and my recollection is he was a willing passer). But McRoberts had 3.5 apg, which is decent for a guard. My guess is Jahlil will end up closer to Mason than McBob, but I guess you never know.

[MChambers]

Zoubek had one type of effective pass: offensive rebound and passing to an open guard. It was an incredibly effective pass, but it's not the typical "passing big man" that I'm thinking of.

McBob absolutely fits the bill. Thank you.
I remember Zoubs hitting cutters pretty well, especially Singler. That team just didn't have a lot of offensive options, especially cutters. It was still a good offense, but in a very unconventional way.

[Kedsy]

I remember Zoubs hitting cutters pretty well, especially Singler. That team just didn't have a lot of offensive options, especially cutters. It was still a good offense, but in a very unconventional way.

To make the comparisons minute-independent, here are our centers' assist percentages in their final year at Duke, going back to 1998.

Elton Brand: 6.2%
Carlos Boozer: 7.0%
Shelden Williams: 6.7%
Josh McRoberts: 20.6%
Brian Zoubek: 9.7%
Miles Plumlee: 5.0%
Mason Plumlee: 11.4%

Last year, Amile Jefferson's assist percentage was 8.3% and Jabari Parker's assist percentage was 8.6%.

Mason was a pretty good passer, for a center (with a significantly better assist percentage than Jabari). As you remember, Z was also pretty good, but not quite as good as Mason.

To put McRoberts's number in perspective, last year Quinn Cook led our team in assist percentage at 27.7%. Tyler Thornton was second at 18.0% and Rasheed Sulaimon third at 16.9%. McBob passed like a good-passing combo guard, or a low-end point guard. Pretty amazing, for a guy who has been more or less constantly maligned on these boards.

[flyingdutchdevil]

To make the comparisons minute-independent, here are our centers' assist percentages in their final year at Duke, going back to 1998.

Elton Brand: 6.2%
Carlos Boozer: 7.0%
Shelden Williams: 6.7%
Josh McRoberts: 20.6%
Brian Zoubek: 9.7%
Miles Plumlee: 5.0%
Mason Plumlee: 11.4%

Last year, Amile Jefferson's assist percentage was 8.3% and Jabari Parker's assist percentage was 8.6%.

Mason was a pretty good passer, for a center (with a significantly better assist percentage than Jabari). As you remember, Z was also pretty good, but not quite as good as Mason.

To put McRoberts's number in perspective, last year Quinn Cook led our team in assist percentage at 27.7%. Tyler Thornton was second at 18.0% and Rasheed Sulaimon third at 16.9%. McBob passed like a good-passing combo guard, or a low-end point guard. Pretty amazing, for a guy who has been more or less constantly maligned on these boards.

I would put the Oak at Senior Mason numbers, but I wouldn't be surprised to see mid-teens. I was really impressed a few nights ago, and willingness to pass is something that carries from exhibitions to the real game.

[Saratoga2]

No offense intended, but this post sounds like it was written three weeks ago. At this point, we can be pretty sure that Jahlil will play as many minutes as he can handle (and Marshall will pick up most of the slack), which barring foul trouble has a decent chance of being more than 25 mpg. Things could obviously change between now and eight days from now, but unless he plays himself out of it, Matt appears to be the frontrunner to start at SG. Rasheed may play his way into the starting lineup by next Tuesday, but to say that's "likely" is overstating the case. Justise will almost certainly start at SF, and will be "backed up" by one of our many SGs shifting over to SF. Barring something completely unforeseen, Tyus will start over Quinn (though it's possible Quinn beats out Matt and Rasheed and will also start at the SG spot, though like Rasheed I wouldn't say it's likely at this point).

Our defense should be significantly better. Rebounding, especially defensive rebounding, may be a concern, and in any event last year's squad was a pretty good rebounding team by Duke standards, so saying this year's team will "probably" be better may be going out on a limb. I agree with you about increased ball pressure and turnovers.

I also completely agree with you that we Duke fans are in a happy situation.

I agree that Jahlil will get as many minutes as he can handle. I just think that will be about 25 minutes. Foul trouble and pace will factor into his PT and few centers will play more than that in one game. Matt has played well, I don't disagree, but will coach K pass on experience in the critical Michigan State game? We agree on Justise and possibly Matt is the best bet as a substitution there. It is a hard call on PG but I don't expect both to be on the floor together based on defensive limitations. You didn't comment on the substitution for Amile. I think Semi at 6'8" and super strong might be the best bet there.

[CDu]

To make the comparisons minute-independent, here are our centers' assist percentages in their final year at Duke, going back to 1998.

Elton Brand: 6.2%
Carlos Boozer: 7.0%
Shelden Williams: 6.7%
Josh McRoberts: 20.6%
Brian Zoubek: 9.7%
Miles Plumlee: 5.0%
Mason Plumlee: 11.4%

Last year, Amile Jefferson's assist percentage was 8.3% and Jabari Parker's assist percentage was 8.6%.

Mason was a pretty good passer, for a center (with a significantly better assist percentage than Jabari). As you remember, Z was also pretty good, but not quite as good as Mason.

To put McRoberts's number in perspective, last year Quinn Cook led our team in assist percentage at 27.7%. Tyler Thornton was second at 18.0% and Rasheed Sulaimon third at 16.9%. McBob passed like a good-passing combo guard, or a low-end point guard. Pretty amazing, for a guy who has been more or less constantly maligned on these boards.

I couldn't agree more. I've always felt that McRoberts has been unfairly maligned by many Duke fans. He was pretty much the only thing going for that 2007 team. Despite being asked to play a role that was never his strongsuit, he put up very respectable numbers in scoring, rebounding, and shotblocking.

It is ironic, because the guy who probably played a bigger part in the team's struggle that year (due to defensive deficiencies and inability to create for others) is a fan-favorite among many Duke fans. But, that's a topic for another day.

Suffice to say that McRoberts is (and was) one of the best passing big men we've ever seen.

[Henderson]

I agree that Jahlil will get as many minutes as he can handle. I just think that will be about 25 minutes. Foul trouble and pace will factor into his PT and few centers will play more than that in one game. Matt has played well, I don't disagree, but will coach K pass on experience in the critical Michigan State game? We agree on Justise and possibly Matt is the best bet as a substitution there. It is a hard call on PG but I don't expect both to be on the floor together based on defensive limitations. You didn't comment on the substitution for Amile. I think Semi at 6'8" and super strong might be the best bet there.

Is Semi really 6-8? He's listed as such by Duke, but he seems more like 6-6 when I see him with other Duke players. I wish he'd stand still against some cinder blocks.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Is Semi really 6-8? He's listed as such by Duke, but he seems more like 6-6 when I see him with other Duke players. I wish he'd stand still against some cinder blocks.

Does hair count as part of height? Cus Semi may be 6-8. But I agree - he looks very similar to Winslow's height.

[Kedsy]

You didn't comment on the substitution for Amile. I think Semi at 6'8" and super strong might be the best bet there.

I think Semi could do a decent job as backup PF, but after studying Coach K's substitution patterns over a 30+ year period, I expect Justise will slide over to PF when Amile is on the bench, and either Matt or Rasheed will come in at SF.

I know a lot of people think with our amazing depth, Coach K will depart from his tried-and-true pattern and plug Grayson and Semi into the rotation, but I just don't think it's going to happen. He loves these Swiss Army knife guys who can give us different looks by playing multiple positions, and Justise seems to fit that bill.

[Kedsy]

I would put the Oak at Senior Mason numbers, but I wouldn't be surprised to see mid-teens.

Interestingly enough, Mason's passing was pretty consistent among his four years at Duke. It wasn't something that just happened his senior season.

Mason Plumlee, assist percentage:

freshman: 11.2%
sophomore: 10.1%
junior: 11.6%
senior: 11.4%

[IrishDevil]

Is Semi really 6-8? He's listed as such by Duke, but he seems more like 6-6 when I see him with other Duke players. I wish he'd stand still against some cinder blocks.

I had the exact same impression. It might be that he is just so thickly-built (don't take my word for it, ask Chris Spatola), and thus does not look as tall, but Semi doesn't look 6'8" to me.


Matt has played well, I don't disagree, but will coach K pass on experience in the critical Michigan State game?

FWIW, Coach K said in the post-game presser that, while he may use multiple lineups, that doesn't mean he will have multiple starting lineups. The fact that we have seen Matt start consistently throughout the preseason suggests to me that, barring a reversal of fortunes in practice this week, the 5-J starting lineup will remain intact. You make a valid point about the role experience can play in games like MSU, but Coach K can still opt for more experience in such games by adjusting the distribution of minutes without disturbing a starting five that he seems to like.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Not sure if this has been linked previously, but here is a nice Chronicle article (http://www.dukechronicle.com/articles/2014/11/11/duke-basketball-continues-tradition-hosting-division-ii-champion-exhibition-game) about K's exhibition games against DII Champs.

Go Duke!

[Henderson]

I think Semi could do a decent job as backup PF, but after studying Coach K's substitution patterns over a 30+ year period, I expect Justise will slide over to PF when Amile is on the bench, and either Matt or Rasheed will come in at SF.

I know a lot of people think with our amazing depth, Coach K will depart from his tried-and-true pattern and plug Grayson and Semi into the rotation, but I just don't think it's going to happen. He loves these Swiss Army knife guys who can give us different looks by playing multiple positions, and Justise seems to fit that bill.

All very true in describing past practices. But if K is being truthful in wanting to use the length and talent of the Duke bench to wear down opponents who don't have such depth, we may see a break from past practices. I hear you when you say that you don't think an enlarged rotation is going to happen, but I think this team may be differently constructed than the models on which you base your assumptions. You may be right, but you may be wrong. I'm guessing the latter. I think Grayson will play good minutes; I think Semi will play regularly but not 10 mpg. Not because they are among the top 7-8 on the team, but because of how K wants to use his unusually talented depth. Using that depth will create opportunities for our starters against less-deep teams.

[CDu]

All very true in describing past practices. But if K is being truthful in wanting to use the length and talent of the Duke bench to wear down opponents who don't have such depth, we may see a break from past practices. I hear you when you say that you don't think an enlarged rotation is going to happen, but I think this team may be differently constructed than the models on which you base your assumptions. You may be right, but you may be wrong. I'm guessing the latter. I think Grayson will play good minutes; I think Semi will play regularly but not 10 mpg. Not because they are among the top 7-8 on the team, but because of how K wants to use his unusually talented depth. Using that depth will create opportunities for a fresh set of our best players against less-deep teams.

Right. This all comes down to how much Coach K is really planning to change things this year. Historically he has not gone deep, even when the quality depth was there. Did recent end of year struggles cause him to change that philosophy this offseason? If so, maybe Ojeleye and Allen see more run. If not, then I think those two get squeezed to spot minutes only.

[Henderson]

Right. This all comes down to how much Coach K is really planning to change things this year. Historically he has not gone deep, even when the quality depth was there. Did recent end of year struggles cause him to change that philosophy this offseason? If so, maybe Ojeleye and Allen see more run. If not, then I think those two get squeezed to spot minutes only.

You said it better than I did. We'll see soon. And oh, isn't that a good thing?!

[Kedsy]

All very true in describing past practices. But if K is being truthful in wanting to use the length and talent of the Duke bench to wear down opponents who don't have such depth, we may see a break from past practices. I hear you when you say that you don't think an enlarged rotation is going to happen, but I think this team may be differently constructed than the models on which you base your assumptions. You may be right, but you may be wrong. I'm guessing the latter. I think Grayson will play good minutes; I think Semi will play regularly but not 10 mpg. Not because they are among the top 7-8 on the team, but because of how K wants to use his unusually talented depth. Using that depth will create opportunities for our starters against less-deep teams.

As you say, we'll see soon enough. One thing I've been thinking about, though, is maybe K does the line change thing a couple of times a game. About four minutes gone in the first half and sometime early in the second half. Maybe two or three minutes each time, giving Grayson and Semi 4 or 5 mpg until garbage time (if such a time occurs, at which point their minute count would obviously go up). That would be more run than the 9th and 10th guys usually get under Coach K, without departing too far from his historical norm.

Just a thought I had.

[tux]

As you say, we'll see soon enough. One thing I've been thinking about, though, is maybe K does the line change thing a couple of times a game. About four minutes gone in the first half and sometime early in the second half. Maybe two or three minutes each time, giving Grayson and Semi 4 or 5 mpg until garbage time (if such a time occurs, at which point their minute count would obviously go up). That would be more run than the 9th and 10th guys usually get under Coach K, without departing too far from his historical norm.

Just a thought I had.


Perhaps I'm misremembering, but didn't last year's brief line changes happen mostly in the first half, with more traditional substitutions in the second half?

Obviously, the line change only makes sense IF you have two groups that make sense as complete units. And that's the case with this team. The thing I like about the line change is that it allows the coaching staff to evaluate all the players during the first 10-15 minutes and then subsequent PT can be somewhat based on who's playing well. Also, in this day and age where guys want to play right away, I think it gives guys a real opportunity and little reason to sulk about PT.

Finally, the one thing I don't like about K's "earn it in practice" philosophy is that I still like to believe that some guys are just "gamers".

[Kedsy]

Perhaps I'm misremembering, but didn't last year's brief line changes happen mostly in the first half, with more traditional substitutions in the second half?

I want to point out my suggestion is not that Coach K will actually use the line changes on a regular basis. I'm merely posing the possibility that he plays the "blue team" for a couple minutes early in each half. Or, put another way, the second line comes in once in each half for a couple minutes and the rest of the game features the normal 7.5 man rotation.


Finally, the one thing I don't like about K's "earn it in practice" philosophy is that I still like to believe that some guys are just "gamers".

If the players know game minutes are allocated based on practice performance, then a "gamer" should shine in that practice situation. If he can't rise to the occasion in practice to fight for his own minutes, then his ability to be a "gamer" is questionable in my mind.

[superdave]

As you say, we'll see soon enough. One thing I've been thinking about, though, is maybe K does the line change thing a couple of times a game. About four minutes gone in the first half and sometime early in the second half. Maybe two or three minutes each time, giving Grayson and Semi 4 or 5 mpg until garbage time (if such a time occurs, at which point their minute count would obviously go up). That would be more run than the 9th and 10th guys usually get under Coach K, without departing too far from his historical norm.

Just a thought I had.

I think this is somewhat likely. If you look back at the 2010 title run, Coach K played Miles, Mason, Andre and Ryan fewer minutes down the stretch, but he did play them very consistently. If I recall correctly, he would rest the starters for two stretches in the first half and one stretch in the second half. Typically the second stretch of the first half was the final minute or two of the half and whoever had 2+ fouls would sit.

Even if Coach K platoons at just the first tv timeout of the first half, but gets Semi and Grayson a couple of consistent minutes, the consistency will be good for them. It can be done on a small scale without doing away with historic tendencies, and pay dividends by keeping guys motivated and their intensity up.

[jimsumner]

Ojeleye is an intriguing piece of the puzzle.

As an aside, he looks a tad closer to 6-7 than 6-8 to these untrained eyes. But he's 230 and can jump out of the proverbial gym. So, he can guard 4s.

We know Jefferson starts at the 4.

But what happens when Jefferson is not playing the 4?

Three possibilities.

Okafor and Plumlee play together. K has played twin towers together. But usually one of the twins--e.g. Ferry, Laettner, Parks, Randolph, McRoberts--has some perimeter skills. The last time I recall K starting two big guys when neither had any discernible perimeter skills was 1996, with Greg Newton and Taymon Domzalski. Didn't work especially well.

We haven't seen this in either of the exhibition games, nor did we see it in the B/W game. So, it may not be on the radar screen. Not sure it should be.

Second possibility. Winslow moves up the 4. Consistent with K's tendencies. And Winslow is pretty strong for a 6-6 freshman. And we have seen Winslow at the 4 so far this pre-season.

But I do think Winslow is a better 3 than a 4. And if he's at the 4, then a natural 2 is up a spot at the 3 and maybe Cook is playing the 2. So, that's a lot of guys playing up a spot. Do you gain more in quickness, ball-handling and perimeter shooting than you lose in rebounding? Can Cook guard 2s or do you play two of Sulaimon, M. Jones and Allen to alleviate size disadvantages?

Possibility three is Ojeleye. He's not a finished product by any means but he seems much improved from last season. That deer-in-the-headlights look is gone and he did tell me that the game has slowed down for him, not unusual for freshmen turning into sophomores. But we haven't seen him at Louisville or Syracuse or Wisconsin. Can he maintain that improvement against higher-caliber opposition?

Duke does have a couple of opportunities this weekend that should give Krzyzewski chances to experiment with assorted lineups.

Duke does seem to have a perfect storm for going 10 deep this season. But Krzyzewski has made a pretty good living with seven or eight-player rotations and I'm just not sure I can see him changing his tune after all this time.

But I could be wrong. Wouldn't be the first time. We should know more by the end of the month.

[Wander]

Three possibilities.


I guess it's technically three possibilities, but given Coach K's history, why would you expect it to be anything other than playing smaller guys up a spot? I'd say it's a 95% of that, a 4.9% of Okafor and Plumee together, and a .1% of a true 10 man rotation with Semi as the backup at 4.

[Des Esseintes]

Interestingly enough, Mason's passing was pretty consistent among his four years at Duke. It wasn't something that just happened his senior season.

Mason Plumlee, assist percentage:

freshman: 11.2%
sophomore: 10.1%
junior: 11.6%
senior: 11.4%

I will be floored if Okafor posts an assist percentage in the mid-teens. Mason was a fine passer for a big man. Okafor, not known as a preternatural passer, is highly unlikely to surpass him, let alone easily surpass him.

[Newton_14]

Ojeleye is an intriguing piece of the puzzle.

As an aside, he looks a tad closer to 6-7 than 6-8 to these untrained eyes. But he's 230 and can jump out of the proverbial gym. So, he can guard 4s.

We know Jefferson starts at the 4.

But what happens when Jefferson is not playing the 4?

Three possibilities.

Okafor and Plumlee play together. K has played twin towers together. But usually one of the twins--e.g. Ferry, Laettner, Parks, Randolph, McRoberts--has some perimeter skills. The last time I recall K starting two big guys when neither had any discernible perimeter skills was 1996, with Greg Newton and Taymon Domzalski. Didn't work especially well.

We haven't seen this in either of the exhibition games, nor did we see it in the B/W game. So, it may not be on the radar screen. Not sure it should be.

Second possibility. Winslow moves up the 4. Consistent with K's tendencies. And Winslow is pretty strong for a 6-6 freshman. And we have seen Winslow at the 4 so far this pre-season.

But I do think Winslow is a better 3 than a 4. And if he's at the 4, then a natural 2 is up a spot at the 3 and maybe Cook is playing the 2. So, that's a lot of guys playing up a spot. Do you gain more in quickness, ball-handling and perimeter shooting than you lose in rebounding? Can Cook guard 2s or do you play two of Sulaimon, M. Jones and Allen to alleviate size disadvantages?

Possibility three is Ojeleye. He's not a finished product by any means but he seems much improved from last season. That deer-in-the-headlights look is gone and he did tell me that the game has slowed down for him, not unusual for freshmen turning into sophomores. But we haven't seen him at Louisville or Syracuse or Wisconsin. Can he maintain that improvement against higher-caliber opposition?

Duke does have a couple of opportunities this weekend that should give Krzyzewski chances to experiment with assorted lineups.

Duke does seem to have a perfect storm for going 10 deep this season. But Krzyzewski has made a pretty good living with seven or eight-player rotations and I'm just not sure I can see him changing his tune after all this time.

But I could be wrong. Wouldn't be the first time. We should know more by the end of the month.

Great post Jim. Thanks. Lots of discussions going on in this thread and I want to toss out a blurb or two on several of them.

1. Mason Plumlee was actually an outstanding passer with great court vision for all 4 years. Folks should pull some tapes. He loved passing almost to a fault. He made some really sweet guard like passes in the tourney during the title run and continued that throughout his career. Okafor showed me flashes of Mason in that regard last Saturday. He likes to pass. That is a great thing.

2. Platooning. We had some success with that last season and while K is certainly not going to over use that strategy, this team sets up so well for it, I think he will use it at least once in practically every game, unless something else is working so well game over game he decides it is not needed. It worked really well in the first half Saturday. Like others have stated, one great thing about it is that it gets all 10 guys court time early on for both development and experience for individual players, and it gives you a glimpse as to which players may be "on" each particular game and helps K decide which players to use in the main rotation for the remainder of each individual game. Ride the hot hands and let those struggling on a given night watch and learn.

3. The options at the 4 Jim mentions above. Long term history says that Winslow will slide to the 4 any time Amile is on the bench, getting more of the very talented wings on the floor. K loves that and this team is set up perfectly for it with it being the deepest bench ever in terms of guards/wings/shooting guards and he has three distinct options at hand, those being the ability to try the smaller versions of those options with both Tyus and Quinn being in with one of Matt/Rasheed/Grayson at the 3, the medium version of those options with only 1 of Tyus/Quinn in there with two of Matt/Rasheed/Grayson in as well, and finally the largest of those options with Rasheed at the Point, and both Matt and Grayson in on the wings. Those are 3 very solid options K could choose to try in any given game when Winslow is at the 4 with Okafor at the 5. Short term history, meaning last years data we have indicates K could choose to put Semi at the 4 when Amile rests, and again have small/medium/large size options with the PG/SG/SF positions with Semi at the 4 and Okafor or Plumlee at the 5. A line up of say Tyus at PG, Quinn at SG, Winslow at SF, Semi at PF, Okafor at C has a small backcourt but a very formidable size wise and very athletic and dare I say quick front line with Winslow, Semi, Okafor. Same if MP3 is at the 5.

My heart wants to see K get all 10 guys on the floor every single game no matter the opponent, and my head says in the early season tough games and then from January on, K chooses to ride his top 7.5 or 8 and limit Grayson and Semi to spot minutes or the dreaded DNP-CD. Given how good all 10 players are I do think this may be the best chance ever for K to use all 10 guys at least in spot minutes, but he certainly won't work it where all 10 guys get 12-15 mpg, I think that we can all agree on. It just won't happen. In blowouts maybe but not in close games.

I am just excited to see it all unfold and playout. This team has a ton of good players and a ton of potential. If the upperclassmen play strong, lead well, communicate well and play at an extremely high level, and the freshman gel and prove they can rock it against the best of the competition, this could be a very special season. I look forward to the journey.

[ACCBBallFan]

I agree Jim and Newton.

My personal fave would be for coach K to rest the Duke Blue J-Crew as a tandem twice in the first half in 2-3 minute stints, and once in the second half.

If Jah-Jefferson-Justise-Jones-Jones, are indeed Duke's best chemistry unit, maximize their time as a unit.

The exception would be alternating combo tandem of Jones/Jones and Quinn/Sheed every 4 minutes to maintain a constant full court pressure D and uptempo O and transition.

Leverage the experience of the senior Quinn and the junior Sheed by starting them the first 4 minutes versus Mich St, and @ Wisc and vs. UCONN to give Tyus and Matt a chance to adapt to the big game and come in fresh at first TV timeout. This concept carries forward to a half dozen ACC road games such as Lville, Notre Dame, Syracuse, Pitt and UNC.

Moving Justise to the 4 when Amile needs a breather, or resting Jsutise some enables more than just 20 MPG for Tyus, plus Quinn and Sheed who I still believe are better overall players than Matt, just not as good a fit with Jah, Jefferson and Justise as Jones/Jones are.

[COYS]

Correct me if I'm wrong . . but wouldn't our depth at both guard positions be sufficient to offset a poor stretch by Quinn and/or Rasheed? Obviously, those guys need to be leaders and to hold the younger guys accountable, but I think the only upperclassman who we absolutely need to play well on a consistent basis is Amile.

Of course to reach our "ceiling," EVERYONE would need to play to their potential, but I think we've got so many guys who can fill in at the 1 or 2, there's the luxury of being able to "ride the hot hand." The team would certainly be better off with the more experienced guys contributing, but if Rasheed is having another poor stretch last he did early last year (and I'm not saying he will, but if he did), Matt/Quinn/Justise/Grayson can all fill in as a wing player to handle those minutes without much drop-off. The guys who we can't replace are Jahlil and Amile, other than that, there's a lot of quality depth.

To put my comment in context, I think it is highly likely that, as good as our freshman are/will be, experience (particularly, talented experienced players) is still extremely important. Rasheed and Quinn will be needed because they've been in and won big games before, AND they have skills that the freshman do not have. Quinn will likely be option number one if we're down two and need a three. He'll need to be ready to step up and hit that shot. If we face a team that is big and strong on D and can frustrate freshman Jahlil and disrupt our usual smooth freshman Tyus, we'll want Rasheed to be able to come in and create offense, under control, of course. Count me as one who has been very impressed with Matt and Grayson thus far, not to mention Tyus. But when push comes to shove, I would rather love to be able to call on Junior Rasheed operating at his highest potential than a freshman Grayson doing the same.

Another way of looking at it is that I see Rasheed playing at a high level as a more likely possibility than Grayson operating at the same level this year. Maybe I'm wrong and Grayson can sprint past Rasheed, but that would mean that Rasheed really hasn't found a way to improve at all AND that Grayson is even better than we all already think he is. It takes a LOT of things to go right to win a National Title. I would rather Rasheed figure it out and be the x-factor that can elevate the team rather than hope and pray that Grayson (or Matt or Semi) are able to exceed expectations to such a degree that they can provide the type of spark that we all know Rasheed is capable of providing.