The ACC: Week 11

[Bob Green]

Week 11 kicks-off tonight when #21 Clemson visits Wake Forest. A Demon Deacons victory would help Duke in its Orange Bowl quest, but seeing as the Tigers are a 21 points favorite, Duke fans should temper expectations. Of course, one never knows...

On to Saturday:

#22 Duke at Syracuse - the most important factor in winning the Coastal Division and making it back to the ACCCG is for the Blue Devils to keep winning so this is the most important game of the weekend. Duke is a 3.5 points favorite in a game I expect will be another tough road conference game. The Orange have struggled so far this season but they have lost to #2 Florida State, #8 Notre Dame, #21 Clemson and Louisville so that 3-6 record is deceiving. They have a banged up offensive line and a second string QB so Duke should take this one.

#24 Georgia Tech at NC State - Go Wolfpack! State needs one more win to be bowl eligible. A loss by the Yellow Jackets would either give Duke additional breathing room (with a Duke victory on Saturday) or maintain the status quo (with a Duke defeat on Saturday). Unfortunately, a Georgia Tech victory is the most likely outcome here. The Yellow Jackets are favored by 4 points. My expectation is State earns bowl eligibility next week against Wake Forest.

Virginia at #2 Florida State - Duke fans will need to pull for the Seminoles to win in order keep Duke's above mentioned Orange Bowl hopes alive. I don't expect FSU to have any issues with the Cavaliers as indicated by the 19 points the Seminoles are favored. Virginia's season is in meltdown mode with three straight losses. It'll be four straight.

Louisville at Boston College - the only conference game this weekend featuring two bowl eligible teams. The Cardinals are favored by 3 points. This one should be a very competitive game. These are two good teams Duke could find themselves in competition against for a bid to a top bowl.

Bye Week: Miami, North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Virginia Tech

Let's talk some football!

[OldPhiKap]

"UVa -- the season that could have been"

Not often that there is panic after a loss to FSU, but things are getting desperate for Mike London up there.

Go Pack.

[Wander]

Nice summary, two minor points of disagreement:



#24 Georgia Tech at NC State - Go Wolfpack! State needs one more win to be bowl eligible. A loss by the Yellow Jackets would either give Duke additional breathing room (with a Duke victory on Saturday) or maintain the status quo (with a Duke defeat on Saturday).


I don't think it gives us any breathing room, actually. I think there's only one very specific scenario where what Georgia Tech does matters at all to us: it's if Duke loses to both Syracuse and Wake Forest but beats UNC and VT, Georgia Tech loses to either NC State or Clemson but not both, and Miami loses to UVA and/or Pitt. Even in that narrow case, GT losing to NC State means they have to beat Clemson (because we can't be alone in a tiebreaker with Miami), which is probably less likely than the reverse.



Virginia at #2 Florida State - Duke fans will need to pull for the Seminoles to win in order keep Duke's above mentioned Orange Bowl hopes alive.


Well, maybe. It keeps Duke's extremely minor playoff hopes alive, and it keeps Duke's Orange Bowl hopes alive under the assumption that Duke loses the ACC title game... but FSU losing to UVA would suddenly make the chance that our theoretical title game opponent is not-FSU realistic. Of course, I don't expect FSU to lose to UVA.

[OldPhiKap]

Nice summary, two minor points of disagreement:



I don't think it gives us any breathing room, actually. I think there's only one very specific scenario where what Georgia Tech does matters at all to us: it's if Duke loses to both Syracuse and Wake Forest but beats UNC and VT, Georgia Tech loses to either NC State or Clemson but not both, and Miami loses to UVA and/or Pitt. Even in that narrow case, GT losing to NC State means they have to beat Clemson (because we can't be alone in a tiebreaker with Miami), which is probably less likely than the reverse.



Well, maybe. It keeps Duke's extremely minor playoff hopes alive, and it keeps Duke's Orange Bowl hopes alive under the assumption that Duke loses the ACC title game... but FSU losing to UVA would suddenly make the chance that our theoretical title game opponent is not-FSU realistic. Of course, I don't expect FSU to lose to UVA.

Wander does raise a good point. In the GT game, if GT wins then our win over the now-and-again-ranked Jackets helps deflate the argument that Duke has not played anyone difficult. I think FSU going undefeated until the ACC CG is good for the conference, though, and good for Duke. UVa is a basket case right now.

Note, I am taking Wander's scenario regarding Tech on faith -- sounds like a much more thorough analysis than I can give -- but the biggest key of all is to just keep winning.

[uh_no]

Nice summary, two minor points of disagreement:



I don't think it gives us any breathing room, actually. I think there's only one very specific scenario where what Georgia Tech does matters at all to us: it's if Duke loses to both Syracuse and Wake Forest but beats UNC and VT, Georgia Tech loses to either NC State or Clemson but not both, and Miami loses to UVA and/or Pitt. Even in that narrow case, GT losing to NC State means they have to beat Clemson (because we can't be alone in a tiebreaker with Miami), which is probably less likely than the reverse.



Well, maybe. It keeps Duke's extremely minor playoff hopes alive, and it keeps Duke's Orange Bowl hopes alive under the assumption that Duke loses the ACC title game... but FSU losing to UVA would suddenly make the chance that our theoretical title game opponent is not-FSU realistic. Of course, I don't expect FSU to lose to UVA.

actually, if we were to win the division while having the same record as miami, we'd need GT to be tied with us as well, and then hope for some crazy tiebreak scenario which will probably result in miami winning anyway...either way, there is not too much chance of duke winning in such a scenario, so cheering for NCSU is the safe bet.

[DukeSean]

It's actually too bad UVA has unraveled like it has. They sure looked like a solid team heading into our contest and made that very good win look not as nice

[Wander]

actually, if we were to win the division while having the same record as miami, we'd need GT to be tied with us as well, and then hope for some crazy tiebreak scenario which will probably result in miami winning anyway...either way, there is not too much chance of duke winning in such a scenario, so cheering for NCSU is the safe bet.

Right, I agree - only in an extremely specific and unlikely case do we come out of a GT/Miami/Duke tie with the lead. So given that it doesn't really matter for that, I agree with OPK and would rather GT win so that we can have at least one win that looks really good.

[Duvall]

#22 Duke at Syracuse - the most important factor in winning the Coastal Division and making it back to the ACCCG is for the Blue Devils to keep winning so this is the most important game of the weekend. Duke is a 3.5 points favorite in a game I expect will be another tough road conference game. The Orange have struggled so far this season but they have lost to #2 Florida State, #8 Notre Dame, #21 Clemson and Louisville so that 3-6 record is deceiving. They have a banged up offensive line and a second string QB so Duke should take this one.


Looks like they have a banged up second string QB. Duke may be facing the third-stringer. (http://www.syracuse.com/orangefootball/index.ssf/2014/11/syracuse_football_quarterback_aj_long_highly_doubt ful_for_game_against_duke.html)


Syracuse true freshman quarterback AJ Long is "highly doubtful" to play in Saturday's game against Duke due to a nerve issue in his throwing arm, head coach Scott Shafer said during his weekly Thursday press conference.

Long suffered the injury in the Orange's 24-17 loss to North Carolina State last Saturday, Shafer said. If Long can't play, redshirt freshman Austin Wilson will start. Redshirt freshman Mitch Kimble will be the backup.

"I don't know how it happened, but between his neck and his shoulder pads, he's got a footprint," Shafer said. "He's got cleat marks on his back, toward his shoulder on the right side.

[Olympic Fan]

The news about AJ Long is huge -- true, he's a true freshman, but he's been playing very well. He has a lot of talent and is going to be a big-time guy in the future,. I have no clue about the third string guy.

One very, very, very small reason to root for Louisville over Boston College. Right now, the race for ACC Coast of the Year probably comes down to FSU's Jimbo Fisher (going undefeated always deserves consideration ... but the off-field issues may sink him), Duke's David Cutcliffe (assuming he wins the Coastal again) and BC's Steve Addazzio, who in two years has revived a very down BC program.

BTW: I'm also pulling for FSU to get to the ACC title game unbeaten -- it helps the conference and it helps us to play the best opponent possible in the title game (win or lose).

[Bob Green]

Looks like they have a banged up second string QB. Duke may be facing the third-stringer. (http://www.syracuse.com/orangefootball/index.ssf/2014/11/syracuse_football_quarterback_aj_long_highly_doubt ful_for_game_against_duke.html)

Thanks for the link!

Defensive Coordinator Jim Knowles needs to dial up the heat. An inexperienced quarterback + pressure = turnovers.

[budwom]

I think State got eight sacks last week vs the second string guy.
I, too know zip about the third string guy, but assuming The Cuse watched tape of our Pitt game, do you think they might try to run the ball?
They averaged one (1) yard per rushing attempt vs State last week.

If we can continue to protect the ball, we should have a good shot at a win.

[uh_no]

I think State got eight sacks last week vs the second string guy.
I, too know zip about the third string guy, but assuming The Cuse watched tape of our Pitt game, do you think they might try to run the ball?
They averaged one (1) yard per rushing attempt vs State last week.

If we can continue to protect the ball, we should have a good shot at a win.

so you're saying there's a chance? :P

[budwom]

One must keep one's optimism and general 'zuberance at bay :cool:

If you look at Syracuse's banged up OL and QB situation, you might wonder why we are only three and a half pt. favorites...football, she is a strange and unpredictable game...

I'll be thrilled with a very close win...

[Duvall]

Wake looks frisky tonight. And those gold helmets look great.

[Duvall]

Ugh, football.

[Olympic Fan]

Lackluster win for Clemson ... signs of life for Wake Forest. We should beat them in Wade, but I don't think it's a gimmie. They have a solid defense and decent kicking game. Only their offense sucks and that's going to get better as their freshman quarterback (and freshmen offensive linemen) get more experience.

One interesting thing happened Thursday night -- the Wake kicker -- Weaver -- missed a long field goal. It was his first missed kick of the season. Going into the game, he and Duke's Ross Martin were the only two regular kickers in the ACC who had not missed a kick (although Martin had far ore chances at extra points and four more field goal attempts).

Now Martin is the ACC's only perfect kicker!

[Duvall]

Yo Notre Dame, stop screwing around.

[devildeac]

Well, at least c*rolina doesn't lose today. Oh, wait, does this count?

UNC Athletic Scandal: Lawsuit Filed!

http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?34482-UNC-Athletic-Scandal-Lawsuit-Filed!

[Duvall]

FSU - you are playing Virginia. Step it up, B.

[Duvall]

Good start.

[uh_no]

thoughts:

1) nothing really changed the division race this week
2) we have to take care of business, and obviously hope miami loses
3) the only other interesting game is pitt/UNC. In this case we DON'T want UNC to win....if they beat us, and we lost another game (and GT lost another game) we'd find ourselves in a huge tiebreaker which we would not....we'd be better in a tiebreaker with Pitt...since we've beaten them. I'll work out the scenarios next week


Go FSU

[ice-9]

More football than just ACC, but Auburn lost this week to a Texas A&M team that we almost beat last year when they had a Heisman Trophy quarterback. Alabama is playing LSU right now in a tight game. What if Alabama loses? Outside of Mississippi, the SEC contenders would all have at least two losses. Teams like Oregon and TCU winner would leapfrog them right?

And what happens if one of those SEC schools then beats Mississippi, which you'd think is highly possible. What if two of those teams beat Mississippi? Is it plausible that the SEC doesn't get represented at all in the playoffs if Florida St, Oregon, TCU and the Ohio St-Michigan St winner finish without any more losses? Would a two loss SEC champ beat out a one loss Big 10 champ?

[Duvall]

thoughts:

1) nothing really changed the division race this week
2) we have to take care of business, and obviously hope miami loses
3) the only other interesting game is pitt/UNC. In this case we DON'T want UNC to win....if they beat us, and we lost another game (and GT lost another game) we'd find ourselves in a huge tiebreaker which we would not....we'd be better in a tiebreaker with Pitt...since we've beaten them. I'll work out the scenarios next week


Go FSU

Clemson-Georgia Tech is pretty important as well. Who we want to win will probably depend on the outcome of Duke-VPI.

[Wander]

Would a two loss SEC champ beat out a one loss Big 10 champ?

If the SEC champ comes from the west (btw, Miss State is the undefeated team, not Miss), the SEC champ will be locked into the playoffs, no questions asked. You might be able to draw up a theoretical scenario where Missouri upsets a 3-loss SEC West team in the SEC title game or something... but I think, as an approximation right now, it's pretty safe to assume the SEC West champ is in.

[Olympic Fan]

Clemson-Georgia Tech is pretty important as well. Who we want to win will probably depend on the outcome of Duke-VPI.

Right. If Duke beats VPI, we want Georgia Tech to win to keep out Orange Bowl hopes alive.

If VPI beats Duke, we want Clemson to win to help our Coastal chances (although we have the tiebreaker over Georgia Tech).

I've said it before ... we can virtually clinch the Coastal next weekend if (1) Duke beats VPI and (2) FSU beats Miami. We'd have a two game lead with two to go (and one of those is a probablye win over Wake Forest). The Georgia Tech-Clemson game means something, but even if Georgia Tech upsets the Tigers, we have a virtual two-game lead on the Jackets, since we have the tiebreaker.