The Road to Charlotte: 2014 ACC Coastal Division Championship Vigil

[Reilly]

DUKE 3-1 (@Syr, VT, UNC, WF)

GT 4-2 (@NCSU, Clemson)

Miami 3-2 (FSU, @UVA, Pitt)

UNC 2-3 (Pitt, @Duke, NCSU)
UVA 2-3 (@FSU, Miami, @VT)
PITT 2-3 (@UNC, Syr, @Miami)

VT 1-4 (@Duke, @WF, UVA)

[uh_no]

DUKE 3-1 (@Syr, VT, UNC, WF)

GT 4-2 (@NCSU, Clemson)

Miami 3-2 (FSU, @UVA, Pitt)

UNC 2-3 (Pitt, @Duke, NCSU)
UVA 2-3 (@FSU, Miami, @VT)
PITT 2-3 (@UNC, Syr, @Miami)

VT 1-4 (@Duke, @WF, UVA)

quite literally:

4-0

or

3-1 with any other miami loss

or

3-1 with a 4-0 miami and a crazy tiebreaker that i'm not sure is actually possible but might work out if i have time

[Olympic Fan]

Obviously, it's important that Duke beat Syracuse next Saturday.

But, if that happens, Duke could essentially lock up the division championship the NEXT Saturday, Nov. 15.

That day, Duke hosts Virginia Tech and could win to go 5-1 in the ACC. That same day, Clemson is at Georgia Tech and FSU is at Miami.

Put together wins by Duke, FSU and Clemson and we would have a two-game lead over everybody in the Coastal with two to play. Technically, Duke would merely clinch a tie for the division title if that happened, but with Wake Forest to close the season, the outright title would be pretty secure.

PS Actually, if Duke can get to 6-2 in the ACC and FSU can take out Miami, we don't need Clemson to beat Georgia Tech. We would win the tiebreaker if they make it to 6-2 with us. Miami upsetting FSU would be the real danger -- if they pull the upset, we'd better finish 7-1 to avoid a tiebreaker with the 'Canes.

[uh_no]

Obviously, it's important that Duke beat Syracuse next Saturday.

But, if that happens, Duke could essentially lock up the division championship the NEXT Saturday, Nov. 15.

That day, Duke hosts Virginia Tech and could win to go 5-1 in the ACC. That same day, Clemson is at Georgia Tech and FSU is at Miami.

Put together wins by Duke, FSU and Clemson and we would have a two-game lead over everybody in the Coastal with two to play. Technically, Duke would merely clinch a tie for the division title if that happened, but with Wake Forest to close the season, the outright title would be pretty secure.

PS Actually, if Duke can get to 6-2 in the ACC and FSU can take out Miami, we don't need Clemson to beat Georgia Tech. We would win the tiebreaker if they make it to 6-2 with us. Miami upsetting FSU would be the real danger -- if they pull the upset, we'd better finish 7-1 to avoid a tiebreaker with the 'Canes.

TLDR: we finish 4-0 or we finish 3-1 with any miami loss.

I laid it all out http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?34427-The-ACC-Week-10&p=752957#post752957

but basically, the issue is we'd a team in the tiebreak who we had beated but miami had lost to to have a chance (GT). The problem is that both we and miami are undefeated against the conference, but GT lost to miami, and therefore GT will be the first team eliminated from that tiebreaker, regardless of how the rest of the division finishes. Therefore miami wins any 6-2 tiebreaker with us.

Duke wins division if:
duke wins out
OR
duke finishes 3-1 AND miami loses any other game
OR
duke finishes 2-2 with losses out of division AND GT loses again AND miami loses an in division game AND the team miami lost to (uva or pitt) finishes higher than the team GT lost to (UNC)

Miami wins division if:
Win out AND duke loses any remaining game
OR
finish 3-1 with a loss to FSU AND duke finishes 2-2 AND GT loses again
OR
finish 3-1 with an in division loss AND duke finishes 2-2 AND GT loses again AND duke's best loss is equal to or worse than UNC (not incl. miami) AND miami's loss is worse eqaul to or worse than UNC (if equal, depends on if duke's second loss is in division, if not, comes down to BCS standings or a random draw...unc could actually be in this tiebreaker...which muddies things)

GT wins division if:
wins out AND duke loses 2 remaining games
OR
wins out AND duke loses 1 remaining game AND miami wins out AND duke loses to VT AND VT finishes ahead of UNC
OR
finish 1-1 AND duke loses 2 remaining game AND miami loses another game AND VT finishes ahead of UNC

UNC wins division if
wins out AND duke loses 2 remaining games AND GT loses 1 remaining game AND miami loses 2 remaining games

[Reilly]

DUKE 3-1 (@Syr, VT, UNC, WF)

GT 4-2 (@NCSU, Clemson)

Miami 3-2 (FSU, @UVA, Pitt)

UNC 2-3 (Pitt, @Duke, NCSU)
UVA 2-3 (@FSU, Miami, @VT)
PITT 2-3 (@UNC, Syr, @Miami)

VT 1-4 (@Duke, @WF, UVA)

This week's games involving Coastal teams ....

Duke @ Syracuse at 12:30 pm est ... Duke fav by 3
GT @ NCSU at 12:30 pm est ... GT fav by 5.5
UVA @ FSU at 6:30 pm est ... FSU fav by 18

[devildeac]

This week's games involving Coastal teams ....

Duke @ Syracuse at 12:30 pm est ... Duke fav by 3
GT @ NCSU at 12:30 pm est ... GT fav by 5.5
UVA @ FSU at 6:30 pm est ... FSU fav by 18

Go Devils!

Go Pack!

[OldPhiKap]

Go Devils!

Go Pack!

And go 'Noles! Need them 12-0 in the title game!

[devildeac]

And go 'Noles! Need them 12-0 in the title game!


You are correct. I just felt dirty typing that, too:o.

[flyingdutchdevil]

How did we avoid Clemson and FSU? Very nice scheduling

[Duvall]

How did we avoid Clemson and FSU? Very nice scheduling

Under the ACC's current scheduling model, Duke only plays one non-Wake Atlantic Division team a year. So they will "avoid" Clemson and FSU in four out of every six seasons.

[duke09hms]

How did we avoid Clemson and FSU? Very nice scheduling

Yep, then there was that year, think it was 2012 when we got Stanford away and both Clemson and FSU. Whew, don't want to do that again. We finished 6-7 that year. With the more favorable scheduling of 2013 and 2014, that team probably could have been 9-3.

[uh_no]

Yep, then there was that year, think it was 2012 when we got Stanford away and both Clemson and FSU. Whew, don't want to do that again. We finished 6-7 that year. With the more favorable scheduling of 2013 and 2014, that team probably could have been 9-3.

back in the day, we had to play 3 atlantic teams. now we play WFU and 1 other every year...so we should escape both clemson and FSU 2 out of every 3 years.

[Wander]

Good to start this thread. Obviously the most important non-Duke game for us is FSU-Miami, as we can't win any tiebreaker with Miami (even if Georgia Tech makes it a 3 team tiebreaker). The problem is that the game is at Miami, and they get a bye week to prepare.

On the other side of things, FSU almost has it locked up, but Clemson and Boston College are still mathematically alive if FSU stumbles and loses multiple remaining games. Which probably won't happen, especially since I promised I'd join the Seminoles train.

[Reilly]

DUKE 4-1 (VT, UNC, WF)

GT 5-2 (Clemson)

Miami 3-2 (FSU, @UVA, Pitt)

UNC 2-3 (Pitt, @Duke, NCSU)
PITT 2-3 (@UNC, Syr, @Miami)
UVA 2-4 (Miami, @VT)

VT 1-4 (@Duke, @WF, UVA)

[Reilly]

DUKE 4-1 (VT, UNC, WF)

GT 5-2 (Clemson)

Miami 3-2 (FSU, @UVA, Pitt)

UNC 2-3 (Pitt, @Duke, NCSU)
PITT 2-3 (@UNC, Syr, @Miami)
UVA 2-4 (Miami, @VT)

VT 1-4 (@Duke, @WF, UVA)

This week's games:

Clemson @ GT -- noon .... Clemson favored by 3
VT @ Duke -- noon .... Duke favored by 5
Pitt @ UNC - 12:30 .... UNC favored by 2
FSU @ Miami -- 8:00 .... FSU favored by 1.5

All three Triangle schools at home (w/ the fourth Big 4 playing in the Triangle, too).

We're all 'Noles as of 8 pm, to keep alive Duke's CFP hopes, and to tamp down the Miami competition as well.

[Duvall]

Door's still open. It's up to Duke now.

[TheDevilMadeMeDoIt]

Amen!

[duke09hms]

Our playoff hopes may be dead, but our Orange Bowl hopes are still alive! FSU comes back from the dead once again to win 30-26 over Miami. Just need to take care of business over the next 2 weeks, and I do think we can beat FSU. There's a good chance Jameis and half their team won't be playing at that point.

Miami's true freshman QB Brad Kaaya is wow, really good. We could sure use a 4/5-star QB like that. He's gonna be a problem in the coming years. We really need to seize this year's opportunity to win the Coastal.

[Olympic Fan]

FSU's comeback victory keeps us alive to play in Charlotte. In fact, our fate is back in our hands.

In fact, the Coastal is vey, very simple. We beat UNC and Wake and we tie Georgia Tech (already finished in the ACC at 6-2) fo0rt he division title -- and we play FSU in Charlotte because we hold the tiebreaker.

If we lose to either UNC or Wake, Georgia Tech plays in Charlotte.

No more distractions about our CFA rank or our chances for the Orange Bowl. Just shut up and win the division.

Frankly, despite today's disappointment, another 10-2 (6-2 ACC) would be a spectacular season in my eyes.

PA We do have one chance for the Orange -- win the division and beat FSU in Charlotte and we go to Miami. Any other scenario and we're looking at Orlando or Jacksonville or Nashville or Charlotte.

[Mabdul Doobakus]

Miami should've won that game. But they didn't and so now I think it's very simple for Duke. Win the last two and we're in the ACC Championship. Lose either one, and we're out, I'm pretty sure, with Ga Tech now done with conference play at 6-2.

[devildeac]

Miami should've won that game. But they didn't and so now I think it's very simple for Duke. Win the last two and we're in the ACC Championship. Lose either one, and we're out, I'm pretty sure, with Ga Tech now done with conference play at 6-2.


Don't turn the ball over. Catch the damn passes. Make the damn passes accurate. Less penalties. Play like we played today and I'm calling OPK for some Bitcoins:rolleyes:. Beat the cheaters. Beat the Deacs.

[duke09hms]

PA We do have one chance for the Orange -- win the division and beat FSU in Charlotte and we go to Miami. Any other scenario and we're looking at Orlando or Jacksonville or Nashville or Charlotte.

Or NYC!!!! There'd be a huge Duke showing at the Pinstripe Bowl should we make it there.

[Acymetric]

Or NYC!!!! There'd be a huge Duke showing at the Pinstripe Bowl should we make it there.

Ugh. Somewhere I can afford to travel to please, my company is making a drastic (and obnoxious) shift in vacation time policy and I have a ton of time to burn. Would love to use some more of it on Duke football (already got Thursday and Friday next week).

[Devilwin]

Don't turn the ball over. Catch the damn passes. Make the damn passes accurate. Less penalties. Play like we played today and I'm calling OPK for some Bitcoins:rolleyes:. Beat the cheaters. Beat the Deacs.

Exactly! We can still win this, and meet FSU in the title game. I think they are showing some chinks in the armor as well.

[devildeac]

Exactly! We can still win this, and meet FSU in the title game. I think they are showing some chinks in the armor as well.

Perhaps their continued contacts with the Tallahassee PD are starting to wear on them a bit:rolleyes:.

[OldPhiKap]

Don't turn the ball over. Catch the damn passes. Make the damn passes accurate. Less penalties. Play like we played today and I'm calling OPK for some Bitcoins:rolleyes:. Beat the cheaters. Beat the Deacs.

Sloppy passes, lots of turnovers, dumb penalties, two missed field goals.

And so only lost by one.

This game with UNLV-CH is huge. Go Duke! 9F!

[Devilwin]

Perhaps their continued contacts with the Tallahassee PD are starting to wear on them a bit:rolleyes:.

Maybe they need their own team bail bondsman. lol
Fact is, I don't see how someone can do all Winston has done and still be allowed to play! But, let's win the next two games and maybe he'll get popped again before.
But honestly, I'd much rather beat them when they are healthy, and or have no one in jail.
We do need to win these last two for several reasons. First, back to back Coastal titles. Secondly, to preserve the new found respect. I was very upset about the way we played yesterday, and that anger reflected in my first post on this thread. But since the time has elapsed since, I am not ready to give up. But I was being honest. The fans deserved a lot more than they got yesterday, and I feel Cutcliffe has seen where mistakes were made, and will take steps to correct it.
I hope so. Three in a row over the "Cheaters" would be sweet. I don't think Wake should be a problem.

[uh_no]

Well...the picture is cleared up now....duke wins out or GT goes to the title game.

That said, there are 8 remaining coastal games:

duke UNC
VT wake
Cuse Pitt
miami UVA
UVA VT
wake duke
miami pitt
UNC NCSU

For duke to clinch "second" in the coastal, they would need to beat UNC and hope miami loses another game.

[Olympic Fan]

Well...the picture is cleared up now....duke wins out or GT goes to the title game.

That said, there are 8 remaining coastal games:

duke UNC
VT wake
Cuse Pitt
miami UVA
UVA VT
wake duke
miami pitt
UNC NCSU

For duke to clinch "second" in the coastal, they would need to beat UNC and hope miami loses another game.

Actually, Duke would be second with a split in its final two ... tiebreakers only apply to determining the championship game opponent. If Duke and Miami are both 5-3 (and Miami can't be better than that), then we tie for second place.

The only way Duke doesn't finish at least second is to lose both remaining games.

[Reilly]

DUKE 4-2 (UNC, WF)

GT 6-2

Miami 3-3 (@UVA, Pitt)
UNC 3-3 (@Duke, NCSU)

PITT 2-4 (Syr, @Miami)
UVA 2-4 (Miami, @VT)
VT 2-4 (@WF, UVA)

[gep]

FSU's comeback victory keeps us alive to play in Charlotte. In fact, our fate is back in our hands.

In fact, the Coastal is vey, very simple. We beat UNC and Wake and we tie Georgia Tech (already finished in the ACC at 6-2) fo0rt he division title -- and we play FSU in Charlotte because we hold the tiebreaker.

If we lose to either UNC or Wake, Georgia Tech plays in Charlotte.

No more distractions about our CFA rank or our chances for the Orange Bowl. Just shut up and win the division.

Frankly, despite today's disappointment, another 10-2 (6-2 ACC) would be a spectacular season in my eyes.

PA We do have one chance for the Orange -- win the division and beat FSU in Charlotte and we go to Miami. Any other scenario and we're looking at Orlando or Jacksonville or Nashville or Charlotte.

YES... don't worry about ANYTHING ELSE except beating unc... then beating Wake. Everything else is gravy, and not in Duke's control.

And... a repeat 10-2 season is SPECTACULAR... especially when considering the pre-Cut era.

I'm ALL IN. Duke's already in a bowl... further wins takes Duke to "higher" bowls. Expectations in Duke Football have greatly "gone where no Duke fan has gone before".:cool: Baby steps... Duke's trajectory is definitely UP. I'm not adept at looking up this stuff, but how many teams have the chance to play in their conference championships "every year"...