2014 Bowl Selection Vigil

[Reilly]

"Buy Bowl Tickets Now":

http://www.goduke.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=4200&ATCLID=209712998

[burnspbesq]

Where does the ACC champion go if it's not in the playoffs?

[Duvall]

Where does the ACC champion go if it's not in the playoffs?

Orange Bowl. That is also where the ACC's second best team goes if the ACC champion is in the playoff.

[loran16]

Excuse me, shouldn't this thread be titled: "Duke Football Bowl Selection Vigil 2015"?

[TruBlu]

Excuse me, shouldn't this thread be titled: "Duke Football Bowl Selection Vigil 2015"?

Or: "Annual Football Bowl Selection Vigil, Version 2015"

[Native]

Orange Bowl. That is also where the ACC's second best team goes if the ACC champion is in the playoff.

Orange Bowl or bust! Would be quite the follow-up to last year — had the time of my life in Atlanta. Hope to get another great bowl this year.

[Reilly]

No matter where we go, I hope to be there. And I just want to be the first to say that *it's really important* that you buy your tickets through Duke. That matters so much as to what bowl we might be selected for in future years.

In 2012, I bought club level seats on the 45 for the Belk Bowl off of Stubhub (nice warm concourse at halftime on a bitterly cold night).

In 2013, I bought lower level seats on the 45 for the Chik-fil-A Bowl off of Stubhub.

So no, I didn't do my part. And I only paid a little bit more than everybody else did who went through Duke and who sat in the endzone.

If we win 10 games this year, and with our awesome coach, and our wonderfully entertaining performance in bowls the past two years -- bowls won't look at those facts. They are going to look at our "through Duke" sales in 2012 and 2013 in extending an invite.

So, buy via Duke. And stay off of Stubhub -- it's an evil, evil place that results in higher prices when lots of folks go there.

[Dev11]

Or: "Annual Football Bowl Selection Vigil, Version 2015"

OK, how did I do?

[loran16]

OK, how did I do?

Perfect.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Orange Bowl. That is also where the ACC's second best team goes if the ACC champion is in the playoff.
Orange Bowl reps were at the game today!

4377

[-bdbd]

Orange Bowl. That is also where the ACC's second best team goes if the ACC champion is in the playoff.

Is that actually true? It used to be that if an ACC team was chosen for the National Championship Game, then the Orange had its choice from the rest of the ACC. That's different than the "second best" team going there. Orange was not obligated to take the ACC Championship loser, or even the team with the next best record, I don't believe. But it WAS a requirement that, if it was still available, the Sun Bowl - about 4th down on the totem pole - had to take the ACC Championship runner-up squad. If that's changed, I just wasn't aware of it.

The best thing to happen recently for Duke getting a chance to get picked up for a higher-end (and big payout) bowl, was the excellent turnout of the Duke fans in Atlanta last New Years Eve!

[BigWayne]

Is that actually true? It used to be that if an ACC team was chosen for the National Championship Game, then the Orange had its choice from the rest of the ACC. That's different than the "second best" team going there. Orange was not obligated to take the ACC Championship loser, or even the team with the next best record, I don't believe. But it WAS a requirement that, if it was still available, the Sun Bowl - about 4th down on the totem pole - had to take the ACC Championship runner-up squad. If that's changed, I just wasn't aware of it.

The best thing to happen recently for Duke getting a chance to get picked up for a higher-end (and big payout) bowl, was the excellent turnout of the Duke fans in Atlanta last New Years Eve!

Orange Bowl now has to take an ACC team if the champion is in the playoff. There is no specific rule about which team is classified as the next in line, just like before. For example, if we were under this year's rules last year, Clemson would get the spot by being 7-1 in the league and the highest ranked. Now that they have escaped BC, if they run the table they will be #2. For an 11-2 Duke to get to the Orange Bowl after losing in the ACCCG, we need Clemson to lose at least one more game, preferably inside the conference.

[Duvall]

Is that actually true? It used to be that if an ACC team was chosen for the National Championship Game, then the Orange had its choice from the rest of the ACC. That's different than the "second best" team going there. Orange was not obligated to take the ACC Championship loser, or even the team with the next best record, I don't believe. But it WAS a requirement that, if it was still available, the Sun Bowl - about 4th down on the totem pole - had to take the ACC Championship runner-up squad. If that's changed, I just wasn't aware of it.

The best thing to happen recently for Duke getting a chance to get picked up for a higher-end (and big payout) bowl, was the excellent turnout of the Duke fans in Atlanta last New Years Eve!

That was not actually true - the Orange could have taken a team outside the ACC last year, but chose Clemson. This year the Selection Committee would pick the Orange Bowl replacement - no idea what their criteria will be , but their rankings should provide a big clue.

[Reilly]

The Iron Dukes email has a mistake -- listing the Russell Athletic Bowl in Charlotte.

Dear Iron Dukes member,

On the strength of its 20-13 victory over Virginia today, the Duke Football team became bowl-eligible for the third consecutive season! Fans interested in following the Blue Devils in the post-season may register for tickets on www.GoDuke.com/bowls or by calling 919-681-BLUE.

Last season, Duke had a terrific turnout at the Chick-fil-A Bowl in Atlanta. Fans were not disappointed as the game was one of the most entertaining of the bowl season. We hope to keep that tradition alive this year! Certainly, we thank all of you in advance for your support of Duke Football.

Fans can select the game(s) they would be willing to travel to from the list of potential bowls based on the ACC's bowl partnerships, and register via credit card. Once the Blue Devils have qualified for the ACC Championship and/or have been selected for their bowl destination, the ticket order will automatically be charged to that specific game. All other bowl games that fans have selected will be released at no charge. If Duke does not play in the ACC Championship, that order will also be released and uncharged.

No refunds will be available once a site has been selected. Ticket seating will be based on Iron Duke priority with all fans who register before November 30th gaining a higher seating priority than those who register after that date. The ACC and the bowl sites will officially announce bids on December 7.

ACC Championship
When: December 6, 2014
Where: Charlotte, NC
Ticket Price Range: $70-$195

Duke Bowl Options
Follow the Blue Devils to one of these great bowl sites!

Orange Bowl
When: December 31, 2014
Where: Miami, FL
Ticket Price Range: $50-$150

Capital One Bowl
When: January 1, 2015
Where: Orlando, FL
Ticket Price Range: $90-$245

Russell Athletic Bowl
When: December 29, 2014
Where: Charlotte, NC
Ticket Price Range: $70-$245

Belk Bowl
When: December 30, 2014
Where: Charlotte, NC
Ticket Price Range: $107-$150

New Era Pinstripe Bowl
When: December 27, 2014
Where: Bronx, NY
Ticket Price Range: $125-$220

Hyundai Sun Bowl
When: December 27, 2014
Where: El Paso, TX
Ticket Price Range: $47-$62

TaxSlayer Bowl
When: January 2, 2015
Where: Jacksonville, FL
Ticket Price Range: $85-$125

Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl
When: January 1, 2015
Where: Nashville, TN
Ticket Price Range: $85-$120

Military Bowl
When: December 27, 2014
Where: Annapolis, MD
Ticket Price Range: $75

Duck Commander Independence Bowl
When: December 27, 2014
Where: Shreveport, LA
Ticket Price Range: $45-$225

Quick Lane Bowl
When: December 26, 2014
Where: Detroit, MI
Ticket Price Range: $89

Bitcoin St. Petersburg Bowl
When: December 26, 2014
Where: St. Petersburg, FL
Ticket Price Range: $80

[loran16]

That was not actually true - the Orange could have taken a team outside the ACC last year, but chose Clemson. This year the Selection Committee would pick the Orange Bowl replacement - no idea what their criteria will be , but their rankings should provide a big clue.

No he's right. The rules have changed this year. They're a bit weird, so see below:

http://www.cardchronicle.com/2013/8/7/4600306/acc-finalizes-bowl-lineup-for-2014-through-2019

For the Orange Bowl, it needs to take the 2nd highest ranked ACC team. I haven't found anywhere explaining how that is determined - it could be like last year's selection process, but I suspect it means 2nd highest in the polls or some form of what used to be the BCS rankings, but it does need to take an acc team.

[Devil in the Blue Dress]

Just an observation: Orange Bowl reps have attended game day at Duke twice this season... yesterday and back in September. No other bowl reps yet. While it is true that there are multiple reps for each bowl who attend games somewhere every Saturday (or Thursday), this is the first year in a long time that it's been the Orange reps. Last year the Chic-fil-a reps made multiple visits and engaged in conversations with fans before games. (There was another bowl which sent reps last year almost as much as the Chic-fil-a bowl, but I don't recall at the moment which it was.)

[blazindw]

Just an observation: Orange Bowl reps have attended game day at Duke twice this season... yesterday and back in September. No other bowl reps yet. While it is true that there are multiple reps for each bowl who attend games somewhere every Saturday (or Thursday), this is the first year in a long time that it's been the Orange reps. Last year the Chic-fil-a reps made multiple visits and engaged in conversations with fans before games. (There was another bowl which sent reps last year almost as much as the Chic-fil-a bowl, but I don't recall at the moment which it was.)

Last year the Russell Athletic Bowl sent reps to almost every game. With a Duke grad apparently among that bowl game's brass, it was rumored that we wouldn't fall below that bowl game last season. The CFA bowl grabbed us before the Russell Athletic had a chance to make their pick.

I believe that this year, the loser of the ACCCG can only go to the Orange Bowl (if the champion's in the playoff), the Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl (formerly known as the Capital One Bowl) or the Russell Athletic Bowl. Someone correct me if I'm wrong on that, but if that's true, making the ACCCG means that we will be guaranteed a bowl game in the state of Florida.

[Wander]

What's the point of bowl representatives going to games?

[Henderson]

What's the point of bowl representatives going to games?

It's a perk. I jumped straight over that question and thought to myself that being on a bowl selection committee must be fun. The reps can't possibly get any information from attending a game that will impact their decision, but it must be nice to do so.

[Duvall]

No he's right. The rules have changed this year. They're a bit weird, so see below:

http://www.cardchronicle.com/2013/8/7/4600306/acc-finalizes-bowl-lineup-for-2014-through-2019

For the Orange Bowl, it needs to take the 2nd highest ranked ACC team. I haven't found anywhere explaining how that is determined - it could be like last year's selection process, but I suspect it means 2nd highest in the polls or some form of what used to be the BCS rankings, but it does need to take an acc team.

Right. That was *not* the rule last year, as I explained.

I would expect the Orange Bowl replacement this year to be the next-highest ranked ACC team in the Selection Committee's rankings (http://www.collegefootballplayoff.com/about-the-rankings), but I don't think that's ever been made explicit.

[Duvall]

It's a perk. I jumped straight over that question and thought to myself that being on a bowl selection committee must be fun. The reps can't possibly get any information from attending a game that will impact their decision, but it must be nice to do so.

Orange Bowl reps are especially useless now that the bowl has no input into its participants.

[Olympic Fan]

Our chances of getting an invitation to the Orange Bowl were mostly helped Saturday ... although one game hurt a bit.

First, was Duke's win over Virginia. Make no mistake -- Duke is going to have to win AT LEAST 10 and maybe 11 games this year to get an Orange bid.

Second, was FSU's victory over Notre Dame. If the 'Noles lose down the stretch, they probably miss the playoff and land the Orange bid themselves.

On the other hand, Clemson's narrow victory over Boston College (damn the BC guy who dropped the winning TD pass in the final minute!) hurt our chances. Right now, Clemson is the second highest ranked ACC team and is generally perceived as the second-best ACC team. No matter that they have one more loss than Duke. As it now stands THEY get the Orange. But they are very beatable with Cole Stout at QB. The problem is that they have a couple softies coming up -- Wake and Syracuse. They do have to go to Georgia Tech and finish with South Carolina at home. Will Deshawn Watson be back for those games?

The one way to guarantee an Orange bid is to win the Coastal, then beat FSU in the ACC title game. That's not impossible, but it would be tough. Getting the bid with a loss to FSU would be tough too, but not impossible.

The one thing that would be impossible would be to get the Orange without winning the Coastal. So let's win the Coastal, first.

Still, it's nice to be in the conversation at this point in the season.

[BigWayne]

Right. That was *not* the rule last year, as I explained.

I would expect the Orange Bowl replacement this year to be the next-highest ranked ACC team in the Selection Committee's rankings (http://www.collegefootballplayoff.com/about-the-rankings), but I don't think that's ever been made explicit.

It's complicated, but the Orange Bowl does actually get to pick the replacement.

From the official website:
Participants in the New Year’s Bowls

Both participants in the Orange, Rose and Sugar Bowls are contracted outside the playoff arrangement (Big Ten and Pac-12 to Rose Bowl; SEC and Big 12 to Sugar Bowl; ACC to Orange Bowl against the highest ranked available team from the SEC, Big Ten and Notre Dame). If a conference champion qualifies for the playoff, then the bowl will choose a replacement from that conference. When those bowls host the semifinals and their contracted conference champions do not qualify, then the displaced champion(s) will play in the other New Year’s bowls.


Then the committee decides everything else.

Selection Committee Responsibilities

Select the top four teams for the playoff, rank them and assign them to semifinal sites.
Rank the next group of teams to play in other New Year’s bowls if berth are available.
Select the highest-ranked champion from the five conferences without New Year’s bowl contracts.
Assign teams to New Year’s bowls
Create competitive matchups
Attempt to avoid rematches of regular-season games and repeat appearances
Consider geography

The other little weird thing I noticed in reading this is that when the Orange Bowl is one of the semifinal hosts (like next year) , if the ACC has a team in the playoff, there is no guarantee for the ACC to get a second team in the big six bowls.

[Bob Green]

ESPN has updated their ACC Power Rankings and we are #3:

http://espn.go.com/blog/ncfnation/post/_/id/101161/acc-power-rankings-week-8-5


After an abysmal showing at Miami to open the conference season, the Blue Devils now have impressive wins against Georgia Tech and Virginia. The schedule is soft -- they avoid Clemson, Florida State and Louisville -- so Duke has an easy road back to Charlotte.

Pitt, on the road in two weeks, will be a formidable foe; however, I believe we have already played the toughest teams on our schedule in Miami, GT and Virginia. Beat Pitt and we have a realistic opportunity to go 11-1 in the regular season. Yeah, VT and UNC will be tough games, but we are better than both the CHokies and the Cheaters. Wake Forest is sad--we will have to avoid a letdown.

[uh_no]

ESPN has updated their ACC Power Rankings and we are #3:

http://espn.go.com/blog/ncfnation/post/_/id/101161/acc-power-rankings-week-8-5



Pitt, on the road in two weeks, will be a formidable foe; however, I believe we have already played the toughest teams on our schedule in Miami, GT and Virginia. Beat Pitt and we have a realistic opportunity to go 11-1 in the regular season. Yeah, VT and UNC will be tough games, but we are better than both the CHokies and the Cheaters. Wake Forest is sad--we will have to avoid a letdown.

not sure we can sleep on UNC....big win this week, and impressive showing vs ND last week

their defense is still atrocious, though...having yet to hold an opponent under 27...their rush defense, though, is still half a yard better than GT, and equal to Kansas. Their real weakness is in Pass defense, where they give up 8.7 y/a....fourth worst in D1....unfortunately duke only puts up 5.4 yards per pass attempt...good for fourth worst in D1

I don't know how the game is going to go...and it's still a ways off...but interesting that are pass offense is so significantly less efficient than last year.

[Bob Green]

not sure we can sleep on UNC.....

We can't sleep on anybody! If we play up to our potential versus down to our opponent, I believe we have a legitimate opportunity to finish the regular season 11-1. It's easy on paper, the challenge is producing results on the field. I'm confident the team and staff gets it!

[uh_no]

We can't sleep on anybody! If we play up to our potential versus down to our opponent, I believe we have a legitimate opportunity to finish the regular season 11-1. It's easy on paper, the challenge is producing results on the field. I'm confident the team and staff gets it!

absolutely! and how awesome is that to say? at the start of last year, there were games that we didn't think we could win, and then we won a bunch of them. but coming into this year, it was probably the first time in a LONG time we can look at the schedule and say that there isn't a team we can't play with, and now seeing how the team has played, there isn't a team left that we SHOULDn'T be able to play with, and if we play how we've already seen we can, we ought to be favored.

[Wander]

not sure we can sleep on UNC....big win this week, and impressive showing vs ND last week


UNC is no where near as good as they were projected in the preseason (which I think most of us predicted), but they're also not anywhere near as bad as a lot of people here believe. They've had one of the best offenses in the ACC from the start of the season through now. I believe 6 out of their 7 opponents have given up their season high in points to UNC; for example, they scored more points on the road against Notre Dame and Clemson than FSU did at home against either team. They've also had three games that were harder (2 of the 3 MUCH harder) than any game we've played. I actually think UNC is our toughest remaining opponent (though Pitt is a tougher game because of home vs away).

Anyway, I still think we're better than UNC, but I've felt for a few weeks that people have overreacted to them a bit. So don't start rooting for them yet because you think a victory could maybe help Duke down the road!

[OldPhiKap]

Our chances of getting an invitation to the Orange Bowl were mostly helped Saturday ... although one game hurt a bit.

First, was Duke's win over Virginia. Make no mistake -- Duke is going to have to win AT LEAST 10 and maybe 11 games this year to get an Orange bid.

Second, was FSU's victory over Notre Dame. If the 'Noles lose down the stretch, they probably miss the playoff and land the Orange bid themselves.

On the other hand, Clemson's narrow victory over Boston College (damn the BC guy who dropped the winning TD pass in the final minute!) hurt our chances. Right now, Clemson is the second highest ranked ACC team and is generally perceived as the second-best ACC team. No matter that they have one more loss than Duke. As it now stands THEY get the Orange. But they are very beatable with Cole Stout at QB. The problem is that they have a couple softies coming up -- Wake and Syracuse. They do have to go to Georgia Tech and finish with South Carolina at home. Will Deshawn Watson be back for those games?

The one way to guarantee an Orange bid is to win the Coastal, then beat FSU in the ACC title game. That's not impossible, but it would be tough. Getting the bid with a loss to FSU would be tough too, but not impossible.

The one thing that would be impossible would be to get the Orange without winning the Coastal. So let's win the Coastal, first.

Still, it's nice to be in the conversation at this point in the season.

Am I correct that Notre Dame can also be selected for an ACC slot? I thought that was part of the deal when they joined.

I was in Tallahassee last night for the FSU-ND game, although Dame lost they are really good and prime time.

[blazindw]

Am I correct that Notre Dame can also be selected for an ACC slot? I thought that was part of the deal when they joined.

I was in Tallahassee last night for the FSU-ND game, although Dame lost they are really good and prime time.

They can be selected for any ACC slot so long as they're within 1 loss of an available team with the best record. So, a bowl can pick a 1- or 2-loss ND over us with 1 loss.

[CameronBornAndBred]

They've had one of the best offenses in the ACC from the start of the season through now.

I don't agree with that statement. UNC has had solid offense the last two games, but before Fedora refused to do away with his 2 QB scheme, when they had the ball, bad things happened.
This is from an article leading into the ND game, where they went with Williams only and has seemingly gotten on the right track.

North Carolina's offense wasn't supposed to be a question mark.The Tar Heels entered Larry Fedora's third season figuring that they would move the ball consistently and put up big scoring totals that could offset some of the defensive problems from last year. And yet, UNC has been up and down heading into Saturday's trip to No. 6 Notre Dame.
http://www.wralsportsfan.com/unc-still-trying-to-find-consistent-offense/14050802/#EegKUGY1U5CgUOu6.99
Fedora has to be kicking himself for not doing away with the 2 QB plan earlier.

[loran16]

They can be selected for any ACC slot so long as they're within 1 loss of an available team with the best record. So, a bowl can pick a 1- or 2-loss ND over us with 1 loss.

Not QUITE correct. If ND is BCS Eligible (yes I know it's the wrong term, but the idea is the same) but not in the playoff, they will be selected for a major bowl. Note that the Orange bowl CANNOT substitute ND for another ACC team....it CAN take Notre Dame as an opponent for an ACC team, but it can't take them and no ACC team.

After the orange bowl, yeah it works like you say. But I find it hard to believe they won't be selected for one of the big bowls.

[Wander]

I don't agree with that statement. UNC has had solid offense the last two games, but before Fedora refused to do away with his 2 QB scheme, when they had the ball, bad things happened.

UNC dropped 35 and 41 points on the road against Clemson and East Carolina, with only 1 turnover and over 400 yards in each game - more yards and points, for example, than we have obtained in any of our ACC games. If that's not good offense, what is?

(Edit: I forgot about the Clemson-Georgia game, so the previous 6 out of 7 of UNC's opponents stat I cited is actually 5 out of 7; same result though)

[Reilly]

I missed the news from April 2014 that the Chik-fil-A Bowl was going back to its roots name-wise and will now be known as the Chik-fil-A Peach Bowl. So, Duke ended up ranked in the final BCS top 25 ever and played in the last Chik-fil-A Bowl ever (or until the name changes again). I wish it had been called Peach last year.

http://www.saturdaydownsouth.com/2014/chick-fil-a-peach-bowl-announces-new-name/

[CameronBornAndBred]

UNC dropped 35 and 41 points on the road against Clemson and East Carolina, with only 1 turnover and over 400 yards in each game - more yards and points, for example, than we have obtained in any of our ACC games. If that's not good offense, what is?

(Edit: I forgot about the Clemson-Georgia game, so the previous 6 out of 7 of UNC's opponents stat I cited is actually 5 out of 7; same result though)
In both of those games, they were over before the 3rd quarter ended, thus UNC was padding their totals against second stringers.
I am not saying UNC doesn't have an offense, but they sure could not have been called either good nor dependable prior to the ND game.

[Wander]

In both of those games, they were over before the 3rd quarter ended, thus UNC was padding their totals against second stringers.


I don't think that's true. In the ECU game, UNC scored 20 points before halftime and 21 points after halftime, so there's no reason to think the stats aren't meaningful, even if ECU did play second stringers for some of one quarter. The Clemson game wasn't close, but also was never enough of a blowout to play the second string (it was a 2 possession game at the end of the 3rd), except maybe in the last five minutes or so.

[Duvall]

UNC is no where near as good as they were projected in the preseason (which I think most of us predicted), but they're also not anywhere near as bad as a lot of people here believe. They've had one of the best offenses in the ACC from the start of the season through now. I believe 6 out of their 7 opponents have given up their season high in points to UNC; for example, they scored more points on the road against Notre Dame and Clemson than FSU did at home against either team. They've also had three games that were harder (2 of the 3 MUCH harder) than any game we've played. I actually think UNC is our toughest remaining opponent (though Pitt is a tougher game because of home vs away).

Tough to reconcile that with Virginia Tech beating UNC pretty easily in Chapel Hill just two weeks ago. It's possible that the Heels are better than they have played to date, but at this point in the season a team is its record, and theirs isn't great.

[OldPhiKap]

Fedora and Roy are similar. Recruit good talent; start slow; play better at end of year.

And, they can both go to Hell AFAIAK.

[OldPhiKap]

(^^ yes, I spell "concerned" with a "K" when I really mean it)

[Jim3k]

Curious about a surfing stunt, I clicked on a Slate link. I got some real bonuses, including a clip about this year's bowl selection rules.

To get there, though, since I have no editing skills, I can only link to the beginning of the clips (http://www.slate.com/articles/video/video/2014/10/kelly_slater_720_11_time_surfing_world_champ_pulls _off_two_rotations_in.html). To get to the rules, you have to go through one other clip that is even more fascinating: a film history of World Series field storming. OF will love it.

The explanation of this year's bowling rules is the third--worth the wait--about 6 minutes. And don't forget the 720º that the surfer throws.

So now you know how this year's bowling rules will work. And it was fun getting there.

[BigWayne]

Curious about a surfing stunt, I clicked on a Slate link. I got some real bonuses, including a clip about this year's bowl selection rules.

To get there, though, since I have no editing skills, I can only link to the beginning of the clips (http://www.slate.com/articles/video/video/2014/10/kelly_slater_720_11_time_surfing_world_champ_pulls _off_two_rotations_in.html). To get to the rules, you have to go through one other clip that is even more fascinating: a film history of World Series field storming. OF will love it.

The explanation of this year's bowling rules is the third--worth the wait--about 6 minutes. And don't forget the 720º that the surfer throws.

So now you know how this year's bowling rules will work. And it was fun getting there.

If you want to watch this video, complete with smart azz comments, this link is better: http://www.slate.com/articles/sports/sports_nut/2014/08/college_football_playoff_the_bcs_is_dead_here_s_ho w_the_new_playoff_system.html

Its an OK overview of the playoff, but does not address the details of champion replacement and tie ins.

[OldPhiKap]

ESPN currently projects us for the Russell Athletic Bowl, and has us #25 in the power rankings. Oddly, Clemson is not far ahead of us in any poll (#22 in power rankings, for example). Still, have trouble seeing us jump over them in the selection committees' collective minds.

Glad we have a week to rest for Pitt.

[Bob Green]

ESPN currently projects us for the Russell Athletic Bowl...

CBS Sports agrees:

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/bowls/predictions

All we have to do is keep winning.

[Bob Green]

Phil Steele projects Duke vs. Texas A&M in the Music City Bowl:

http://www.philsteele.com/bowls/14-15/bowlprojections.html

He has Virginia in two bowl games, the Sun Bowl vs. Arizona State and the Belk Bowl vs. South Carolina. I assume one was suppose to say Virginia Tech.

[Reilly]

Would someone (with more computer skills than me) make a chart of all of these prognostications? Could that be placed somewhere where it could be updated (or maybe copy and pasted)?

It would be cool to see all the different prognosticators listed down the left hand/vertical column, then each week/date written across the top/horizontal, w/ all the picks filled in as to where Duke is predicted to go. Just to see when there is consensus. It would tracking speculative nonsense, but still neat to see -- and easier to reference if it were in one place than reading many posts about "person X now picks Duke to bowl Y".

[Nugget]

Would someone (with more computer skills than me) make a chart of all of these prognostications? Could that be placed somewhere where it could be updated (or maybe copy and pasted)?

It would be cool to see all the different prognosticators listed down the left hand/vertical column, then each week/date written across the top/horizontal, w/ all the picks filled in as to where Duke is predicted to go. Just to see when there is consensus. It would tracking speculative nonsense, but still neat to see -- and easier to reference if it were in one place than reading many posts about "person X now picks Duke to bowl Y".

I'm not too good on the formtatting of this (and ESPN and USA Today haven't updated their bowl projections this week), but ones I see so far are:


CBS (Jerry Palm): Russell Athletic Bowl (Duke-Baylor)
Sporting News: Russell Athletic Bowl (Duke-TCU)
Phil Steele: Music City Bowl (Duke-Texas A&M)
Collegesportsmadness.com: Pinstripe Bowl (Duke-Penn St.)
SB Nation: Orange Bowl (Duke-Alabama) -- this one seems insane and is premised on us being picked ahead of Clemson, which would never happen.


Also, not all of the bowl pickers use the same approach -- some, like Palm and Steele, are clearly "projecting" what they think will happen during the rest of the season (for example, neither of them has Mississippi St. in the playoff, even though they obviously would be if the season ended today). Others appear to be picking as if the season ended today.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Want to read a very cool stat? This is from an article on ESPN talking about how being simply bowl eligible is no longer our goal.


The Blue Devils have lost only one of their past 15 regular-season conference games.
http://espn.go.com/blog/acc/post/_/id/76094/bowl-eligibility-no-longer-the-goal-at-duke

[budwom]

I, too, like thinking about our bowl game. But projecting destinations at this time is pretty ridiculous. With five games to play, at least four of them could go either way. (Wake looks pretty horrific right now).

I think I'll wait until at least after the Pitt and Syracuse road games to begin peering into the crystal ball.

(Winning our bowl game would be a nice thing this year).

[Bob Green]

Want to read a very cool stat? This is from an article on ESPN talking about how being simply bowl eligible is no longer our goal.


The Blue Devils have lost only one of their past 15 regular season conference games.

http://espn.go.com/blog/acc/post/_/id/76094/bowl-eligibility-no-longer-the-goal-at-duke

Unfortunately, the stat is incorrect, we have lost seven of the last 15:

2014

Virginia - win
Geogia Tech - win
Miami - loss

2013

North Carolina -win
Wake Forest - win
Miami - win
NC State - win
Virginia Tech - win
Virginia - win
Pittsburgh - loss
Georgia Tech - loss

2012

Miami - loss
Georgia Tech -loss
Clemson - loss
Florida State - loss

[uh_no]

Want to read a very cool stat? This is from an article on ESPN talking about how being simply bowl eligible is no longer our goal.


http://espn.go.com/blog/acc/post/_/id/76094/bowl-eligibility-no-longer-the-goal-at-duke

I read that too...it can't be right though...last year we were 6-2 and were only 2-1 this year...meaning we've lost 3 of our last 11....I think they meant overall games...which is true

[killerleft]

Want to read a very cool stat? This is from an article on ESPN talking about how being simply bowl eligible is no longer our goal.

"The Blue Devils have lost only one of their past 15 regular-season conference games."



http://espn.go.com/blog/acc/post/_/id/76094/bowl-eligibility-no-longer-the-goal-at-duke

Making it even cooler is adding up the combined conference wins for 2010 and 2011: two, to go along with 14 losses! The best part may be that David Cutcliffe is not a miracle worker. He has patiiently built up the skill and confidence level of our Football team. We have reason to believe that Rome is still being built, and on a strong foundation!

Oh, and another thing, CB&B. I, too, have always believed that Wallace Wade is fundamentally a fine football venue. Just like Cameron, the place is steeped in tradition. The horseshoe-shape of the stadium is traditional AND functional, and the authentic tunnel makes for a dramatic entrance for Duke Football players. Most of the upgrades are welcome, but the only things really missing are rear ends in all of the seats. I even like the carnival atmosphere that the vendors create around the concourse.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Unfortunately, the stat is incorrect, we have lost seven of the last 15:

2014

Virginia - win
Geogia Tech - win
Miami - loss

2013

North Carolina -win
Wake Forest - win
Miami - win
NC State - win
Virginia Tech - win
Virginia - win
Pittsburgh - loss
Georgia Tech - loss

2012

Miami - loss
Georgia Tech -loss
Clemson - loss
Florida State - loss
I was wondering. Darn you to heck, ESPN, for being an unreputable news source!!!

[devildeac]

I was wondering. Darn you to heck, ESPN, for being an unreputable news source!!!

Bob Green=DBR fountain of (accurate) information

;)

[Tappan Zee Devil]

Unfortunately, the stat is incorrect, we have lost seven of the last 15:

2014

Virginia - win
Geogia Tech - win
Miami - loss

2013

North Carolina -win
Wake Forest - win
Miami - win
NC State - win
Virginia Tech - win
Virginia - win
Pittsburgh - loss
Georgia Tech - loss

2012

Miami - loss
Georgia Tech -loss
Clemson - loss
Florida State - loss

But only one of the last nine - Duke football is trending

[Olympic Fan]

SB Nation: Orange Bowl (Duke-Alabama) -- this one seems insane and is premised on us being picked ahead of Clemson, which would never happen.


I wouldn't say never ... while wildly optimistic, it's not insane.

Obviously, for it to happen, Duke would have to (1) win the Coastal and upset FSU (maybe without Winston?) in the ACC title game. If that happens, Duke is in the Orange Bowl. Or (2) Duke wins out in the regular season and loses to FSU in the ACC title game.

At that point, Duke is 11-2. Would the Orange take Clemson? Well, today they would. But Clemson already has two losses and faces a potential third in their finale against South Carolina -- Spurrier has owned them.

Would the Orange prefer 11-2 Duke to 9-3 Clemson .... considering that in that scenario, Duke is probably ranked higher?

And it's not inconceivable that Clemson could lose another game or two -- with Cole Stout at QB, they are extremely vulnerable -- BC should have beaten them last Saturday. Of course, Duke could lose another game or two or three too.

I'm not saying we're the favorite for the Orange or anything -- we're not. But it's not an insane or farfetched scenario.

[wilson]

I wouldn't say never ... while wildly optimistic, it's not insane.

Obviously, for it to happen, Duke would have to (1) win the Coastal and upset FSU (maybe without Winston?) in the ACC title game. If that happens, Duke is in the Orange Bowl. Or (2) Duke wins out in the regular season and loses to FSU in the ACC title game.

At that point, Duke is 11-2. Would the Orange take Clemson? Well, today they would. But Clemson already has two losses and faces a potential third in their finale against South Carolina -- Spurrier has owned them.

Would the Orange prefer 11-2 Duke to 9-3 Clemson .... considering that in that scenario, Duke is probably ranked higher?

And it's not inconceivable that Clemson could lose another game or two -- with Cole Stout at QB, they are extremely vulnerable -- BC should have beaten them last Saturday. Of course, Duke could lose another game or two or three too.

I'm not saying we're the favorite for the Orange or anything -- we're not. But it's not an insane or farfetched scenario.Pretty good rundown here, in my opinion.
Remember, at this time last year, the Chicken Sammich Bowl looked mostly like a pipe dream too.

[OldPhiKap]

Louisville may be out of the mix for a top three spot in the conference after this weekend, but until then -- they have a fair resume (compared to us, at least) and have upcoming opportunities against FSU and ND. As State and UNC showed (respectively), neither the 'Noles nor the Irish are immune from someone jumping up and biting them.

I could see a bowl selecting Louisville over Duke if we are only one win better at the end.

[budwom]

One nice thing we have going for us was our excellent attendance in atlanta last year. Should be a plus this year, though I don't know how
a less attractive venue might change that...

[devildeac]

One nice thing we have going for us was our excellent attendance in atlanta last year. Should be a plus this year, though I don't know how
a less attractive venue might change that...

Two nice things-IIRC, we sold the largest # of tix for any ACC school for the 2013-2014 FB/bowl season when we played in the Belk Bowl. We're getting quite the reputation;). I'd have your same concern about a most distant/less attractive location (but would we really have the "right" to complain given our awful track record for the last 40-50 years:o) where our alumni presence might be a whole lot smaller.

[oakvillebluedevil]

Call me crazy, but we're alive til we're not anymore :)

http://espn.go.com/ncf/notebook/_/page/EliminatorWeek8/eliminator-college-football-week-8-victims-survivors

A clear SEC West winner who wins SEC championship, the other SEC west guys beating up on each other, 2-loss Pac 12 / Big 10 champs, and an ACC title and we're right there.

Not as implausible as it sounds. I just know I'll enjoy watching the rest of the year - good to be relevant in late October. One week at a time.

[CameronBornAndBred]

One nice thing we have going for us was our excellent attendance in atlanta last year. Should be a plus this year, though I don't know how
a less attractive venue might change that...
We showed up very well in Charlotte too. Both venues are within driving distance; the real challenge would be is to see how we'd turn out for a distant game, like in Louisiana for the Independence Bowl. I'm pretty sure I wouldn't be making that drive, and I don't know what our fan base is like down there. If we wound up in the Pin Stripe Bowl, we'd probably have a solid turnout due to having a decent # of people already in the New York area. The drawback would be for those fans that chose to make the trip to NYC just 9 days earlier to watch us beat UCONN.

[sagegrouse]

We showed up very well in Charlotte too. Both venues are within driving distance; the real challenge would be is to see how we'd turn out for a distant game, like in Louisiana for the Independence Bowl. I'm pretty sure I wouldn't be making that drive, and I don't know what our fan base is like down there. If we wound up in the Pin Stripe Bowl, we'd probably have a solid turnout due to having a decent # of people already in the New York area. The drawback would be for those fans that chose to make the trip to NYC just 9 days earlier to watch us beat UCONN.

Is there a New Jersey Bowl??

[CameronBornAndBred]

Is there a New Jersey Bowl??
Close enough. Us southerners consider anything within 75 miles of the Statue of Liberty "NYC". ;)

[OldPhiKap]

One nice thing we have going for us was our excellent attendance in atlanta last year. Should be a plus this year, though I don't know how
a less attractive venue might change that...


Two nice things-IIRC, we sold the largest # of tix for any ACC school for the 2013-2014 FB/bowl season when we played in the Belk Bowl. We're getting quite the reputation;). I'd have your same concern about a most distant/less attractive location (but would we really have the "right" to complain given our awful track record for the last 40-50 years:o) where our alumni presence might be a whole lot smaller.

Agreed, we turned out well for both bowls.

As for this year, I would assume that any bowl in Florida would be well-attended although the Bitcoin Bowl is the day after Christmas (and my separate issues with Bitcoins are well-documented). Charlotte, New York, DC/Annapolis, and Detroit (if we fall that far) should all have great local turn-out too. Not sure about Shriveport or El Paso, those will take some more dedicated travelers I suspect (although we had a ton of Texas Devils when I was there, they seemed to come from the Dallas/Houston area -- probably closer to Shriveport than ELP). Probably draw reasonably well in Nashville.

[Dev11]

Agreed, we turned out well for both bowls.

As for this year, I would assume that any bowl in Florida would be well-attended although the Bitcoin Bowl is the day after Christmas (and my separate issues with Bitcoins are well-documented). Charlotte, New York, DC/Annapolis, and Detroit (if we fall that far) should all have great local turn-out too. Not sure about Shriveport or El Paso, those will take some more dedicated travelers I suspect (although we had a ton of Texas Devils when I was there, they seemed to come from the Dallas/Houston area -- probably closer to Shriveport than ELP). Probably draw reasonably well in Nashville.

For our formidable Colorado contingent, El Paso isn't so bad.

[wilson]

For our formidable Colorado contingent, El Paso isn't so bad.A mere four segments on the Ticket to Ride board.
https://lh5.ggpht.com/q1lF7N3CKca3vTKO94rMzy4ogerX4pHBiTUPqJO6CMFZDOI-XUZTjDbg_Ml3Q-rkqWbF=h900

[johnb]

I'm not too good on the formtatting of this (and ESPN and USA Today haven't updated their bowl projections this week), but ones I see so far are:


CBS (Jerry Palm): Russell Athletic Bowl (Duke-Baylor)
Sporting News: Russell Athletic Bowl (Duke-TCU)
Phil Steele: Music City Bowl (Duke-Texas A&M)
Collegesportsmadness.com: Pinstripe Bowl (Duke-Penn St.)
SB Nation: Orange Bowl (Duke-Alabama) -- this one seems insane and is premised on us being picked ahead of Clemson, which would never happen.

....

When I look up the polls on Sunday, I am confident we belong in the top 25.

When I look at potential bowl opponents, I think we'd have our hands full (especially if we win through the championship game; Clemson loses to South Carolina +/-Georgia Tech; and we get the Orange Bowl slot across from an angry Alabama team). OTOH, going to Florida, Nashville, or NYC would be great for the team and the fans, and if anyone can prep a team with weeks of practices, it's Cut.

On my third hand, however, it's a bit premature to be planning on first tier bowl games when we have half a season of tough games ahead.

[DukeSean]

Agreed, we turned out well for both bowls.

As for this year, I would assume that any bowl in Florida would be well-attended although the Bitcoin Bowl is the day after Christmas (and my separate issues with Bitcoins are well-documented). Charlotte, New York, DC/Annapolis, and Detroit (if we fall that far) should all have great local turn-out too. Not sure about Shriveport or El Paso, those will take some more dedicated travelers I suspect (although we had a ton of Texas Devils when I was there, they seemed to come from the Dallas/Houston area -- probably closer to Shriveport than ELP). Probably draw reasonably well in Nashville.

I think our Shreveport attendance might surprise some people. It's pretty close for us Texan Devils, and while no Vegas by any stretch of the imagination, they've got some entertaining casinos that might attract the casual fan

[Reilly]

Trying to get a handle on when/where these things fall. In date order ...

Friday, December 26 – DETROIT – 4:30 pm - (Quick Lane) – Big Ten
Friday, December 26 – ST. PETERSBURG – 8 pm - (Bitcoin) - American

Saturday, December 27 – ANNAPOLIS – 1 pm - (Military) - American
Saturday, December 27 – EL PASO – 2 pm – (Sun) – Pac-12
Saturday, December 27 – SHREVEPORT – 4 pm - (Duck Commander Independence) - SEC
Saturday, December 27 – NYC – 4:30 pm - (New Era Pinstripe) – Big Ten

Monday, December 29 – ORLANDO – 5:30 pm - (Russell Athletic) – Big 12

Tuesday, December 30 – NASHVILLE – 3 pm - (Music City) - SEC
Tuesday, December 30 – CHARLOTTE – 6:45 pm - (Belk) - SEC

Wednesday, December 31 – MIAMI (Orange) – 8:30 pm

Thursday, January 1 – ORLANDO – 1 pm - (Capital One) - SEC

Friday, January 2 – JACKSONVILLE – 3:20 pm- (TaxSlayer) – SEC

Saturday, January 3 – BIRMINGHAM – 1 pm – (Birmingham) – [conditional for ACC]

http://raycomsports.com/sports_labs_docs/m-footbl/2014accfbguide.pdf

(pp. 15-16 of the Guide)

[budwom]

where's the Atlanta chick fil-a? (by that I mean when)...

[DukeSean]

where's the Atlanta chick fil-a? (by that I mean when)...

Chick-Fil-A bowl is now Peach Bowl and part of the playoff rotation and so the ACC doesn't have the same tie-in as it used to.

[Bob Green]

where's the Atlanta chick fil-a? (by that I mean when)...

http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/11419086/2014-15-college-football-bowl-schedule

December 31st at 12:30 pm.

The Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl is not an ACC affiliate this year.

[Olympic Fan]

My personal ranking of the bowls that are available to Duke this year:

1. Orange (Miami) -- it's a longshot, but as of this moment, not impossible.

2. Russell Athletic (Orlando) - the ACC's next-best bowl

3. Music City (Nashville) -- the next five bowls are equal in the ACC hierarchy, but I'd prefer this one because it's reasonably close, but it's a bowl we've never been to.

4. New Era Pinstripe (New York City) -- I love the idea of playing in Yankee Stadium. Pllus an easy trip for all our NE fans

5. Belk Bowl (Charlotte) -- Good location. East to get to. Only drawback is that we were there two years ago ... plus we were there a year ago for the ACC title game (and maybe again this year)

6. Taxslayer Bowl (Jacksonville) -- formerly the Gator Bowl ... not quite a prestigious as it used to be, Still, not a bad bowl in a good city that we can get to.

7. Sun Bowl (El Paso) -- a long, long way to go. But a well-established bowl with a built in sellout from local fans

I would be happy with any of these seven. I could see re-ordering the No. 3-7 bowls in any order. I would consider any of those a major success.

I'd be less happy with the ACC's second tier bowls:

8. Quick Lane Bowl (Detroit) -- at least it's against a Big Ten opponent

9. Military Bowl (Washington) -- good location, but poor (AAC) opponent

10. Duck Commander Bowl (Baton Rouge) -- Just a personal distaste for anything to do with the Duck Commander group (I can't go into why without getting into PPB territory).

[Bob Green]

My personal ranking of the bowls that are available to Duke this year:

6. Taxslayer Bowl (Jacksonville) -- formerly the Gator Bowl ... not quite a prestigious as it used to be, Still, not a bad bowl in a good city that we can get to.



Please correct me, if my memory is faulty, but going back to the 70s, was not the Gator Bowl considered the 5th most prestigious bowl game after the Rose, Orange, Cotton and Sugar Bowls? Specifically, I am talking the pre-Fiesta Bowl era.

[blazindw]

My personal ranking of the bowls that are available to Duke this year:

1. Orange (Miami) -- it's a longshot, but as of this moment, not impossible.

2. Russell Athletic (Orlando) - the ACC's next-best bowl

3. Music City (Nashville) -- the next five bowls are equal in the ACC hierarchy, but I'd prefer this one because it's reasonably close, but it's a bowl we've never been to.

4. New Era Pinstripe (New York City) -- I love the idea of playing in Yankee Stadium. Pllus an easy trip for all our NE fans

5. Belk Bowl (Charlotte) -- Good location. East to get to. Only drawback is that we were there two years ago ... plus we were there a year ago for the ACC title game (and maybe again this year)

6. Taxslayer Bowl (Jacksonville) -- formerly the Gator Bowl ... not quite a prestigious as it used to be, Still, not a bad bowl in a good city that we can get to.

7. Sun Bowl (El Paso) -- a long, long way to go. But a well-established bowl with a built in sellout from local fans

I would be happy with any of these seven. I could see re-ordering the No. 3-7 bowls in any order. I would consider any of those a major success.

I'd be less happy with the ACC's second tier bowls:

8. Quick Lane Bowl (Detroit) -- at least it's against a Big Ten opponent

9. Military Bowl (Washington) -- good location, but poor (AAC) opponent

10. Duck Commander Bowl (Baton Rouge) -- Just a personal distaste for anything to do with the Duck Commander group (I can't go into why without getting into PPB territory).

Quick clarification, the Military Bowl is now in Annapolis, and the Duck Commander Independence Bowl is still in Shreveport. Still, can't go wrong with Maryland blue crab or cajun food!

And as a native Detroiter, if Duke was in the Quick Lane Bowl, I would go SO hard in downtown Detroit for it! Alas, it's lower on my list only because at this point, going to that bowl means we've probably lost the rest of our games, which I don't think anyone wants.

[OldPhiKap]

My personal ranking of the bowls that are available to Duke this year:

1. Orange (Miami) -- it's a longshot, but as of this moment, not impossible.

2. Russell Athletic (Orlando) - the ACC's next-best bowl

3. Music City (Nashville) -- the next five bowls are equal in the ACC hierarchy, but I'd prefer this one because it's reasonably close, but it's a bowl we've never been to.

4. New Era Pinstripe (New York City) -- I love the idea of playing in Yankee Stadium. Pllus an easy trip for all our NE fans

5. Belk Bowl (Charlotte) -- Good location. East to get to. Only drawback is that we were there two years ago ... plus we were there a year ago for the ACC title game (and maybe again this year)

6. Taxslayer Bowl (Jacksonville) -- formerly the Gator Bowl ... not quite a prestigious as it used to be, Still, not a bad bowl in a good city that we can get to.

7. Sun Bowl (El Paso) -- a long, long way to go. But a well-established bowl with a built in sellout from local fans

I would be happy with any of these seven. I could see re-ordering the No. 3-7 bowls in any order. I would consider any of those a major success.

I'd be less happy with the ACC's second tier bowls:

8. Quick Lane Bowl (Detroit) -- at least it's against a Big Ten opponent

9. Military Bowl (Washington) -- good location, but poor (AAC) opponent

10. Duck Commander Bowl (Baton Rouge) -- Just a personal distaste for anything to do with the Duck Commander group (I can't go into why without getting into PPB territory).

Plus the Bitcoin Bowl the day after Christmas in Tampa/St. Pete I think.. But Bitcoins are not real, and I am not spending Christmas on the road given the YoungPhiKaps.
(For those who do not visit the off-topic board, my struggles with Bitcoins:
http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?32439-Bitcoin-black-Friday-For-real-this-time!&highlight=Bitcoin )

[Olympic Fan]

Please correct me, if my memory is faulty, but going back to the 70s, was not the Gator Bowl considered the 5th most prestigious bowl game after the Rose, Orange, Cotton and Sugar Bowls? Specifically, I am talking the pre-Fiesta Bowl era.

Yes -- prior to the rise of the Fiesta, the Gator was No. 5 -- although in that era, there was a HUGE gap between the Big Four (Rose, Orange, Sugar, Cotton) and the Gator.

The Gator was No. 5 in 1962, when an 8-2 Duke team turned down a bid. The official story was that Duke didn't play in "minor" bowls. The real story is that the players were so upset about how hard Bill Murray worked them before the 1961 Cotton Bowl (the 1960 season) that they didn't want to go through that again. Which goes back to WHY Murray worked them so hard leading up to the Cotton Bowl. He was upset that after they got the bowl bid, his team had a nationally televised game (rare in that era) at UCLA ... his players treated the game as a vacation trip, went through the motions and lost 27-6. His hard work was partially punishment for that lapse. It did pay off in a 7-6 victory over Lance Alworth and Arkansas in the Cotton Bowl -- Duke's last bowl win.

PS blazindw ... thanks for the corrections on the locations of the Military and Duck Bowls. The Quick Lane Bowl is in Ford Field ... is that downtown Detroit or out on the suburbs? I hope it doesn't matter -- any of the three bottom bowls would mean a lousy end to the season.

[sagegrouse]

Yes -- prior to the rise of the Fiesta, the Gator was No. 5 -- although in that era, there was a HUGE gap between the Big Four (Rose, Orange, Sugar, Cotton) and the Gator.

The Gator was No. 5 in 1962, when an 8-2 Duke team turned down a bid. The official story was that Duke didn't play in "minor" bowls. The real story is that the players were so upset about how hard Bill Murray worked them before the 1961 Cotton Bowl (the 1960 season) that they didn't want to go through that again. Which goes back to WHY Murray worked them so hard leading up to the Cotton Bowl. He was upset that after they got the bowl bid, his team had a nationally televised game (rare in that era) at UCLA ... his players treated the game as a vacation trip, went through the motions and lost 27-6. His hard work was partially punishment for that lapse. It did pay off in a 7-6 victory over Lance Alworth and Arkansas in the Cotton Bowl -- Duke's last bowl win.

PS blazindw ... thanks for the corrections on the locations of the Military and Duck Bowls. The Quick Lane Bowl is in Ford Field ... is that downtown Detroit or out on the suburbs? I hope it doesn't matter -- any of the three bottom bowls would mean a lousy end to the season.

Interesting story in the Jay Wilkinson memoir, mostly about his years at Duke, 1960-1964. His Dad, during an off-week for the Oklahoma Sooners, visited Duke and watched a practice. He told Jay that he never worked his team that hard so late in the season because he wanted to keep them fresh.

[Reilly]

Plus the Bitcoin Bowl the day after Christmas in Tampa/St. Pete I think.. But Bitcoins are not real, and I am not spending Christmas on the road given the YoungPhiKaps.
(For those who do not visit the off-topic board, my struggles with Bitcoins:
http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?32439-Bitcoin-black-Friday-For-real-this-time!&highlight=Bitcoin )

The Bitcoin Bowl is at 8 pm on 12/26. So reachable by traveling on 12/26 and not on Xmas if you don't have too far to go ....

As for your struggles and the thread comparing Bicoins to Tulips, would you feel better if it were named the Tulip Bowl ... at least then we could plant some Tulips under the Cut statue that will go next to the Wallace Wade statue (w/ its roses) ...

[Reilly]

...

4. New Era Pinstripe (New York City) -- I love the idea of playing in Yankee Stadium. Pllus an easy trip for all our NE fans...

Disagree strongly. I didn't enjoy seeing a baseball game there (night Jeter became NYY hit king; night before Duke/Army in 2009). It's not *the* Yankee stadium, either (realize you know that). It's not a good area around the stadium. It'll be cold. Of the yuckier destinations, I'd rather be in Annapolis or Shreveport than NYC (for bowl game purposes).

[blazindw]

PS blazindw ... thanks for the corrections on the locations of the Military and Duck Bowls. The Quick Lane Bowl is in Ford Field ... is that downtown Detroit or out on the suburbs? I hope it doesn't matter -- any of the three bottom bowls would mean a lousy end to the season.

Ford Field is downtown. Right in the Foxtown district next to Comerica Park and 3 blocks from Greektown. Awesome part of downtown and contrary to what the world will tell you, there's a ton to do/eat/drink in that part of downtown. But, I won't settle for a Quick Lane Bowl appearance despite it being in my hometown. Let's go to Florida!

[AIRFORCEDUKIE]

Since im right down the road and it would be incredibly awesome, im hoping for an Orange bowl Bid.. However a Russell athletic bowl bid will be just as good, only difference is I cant go to Tootsies Cabaret once the game is over.;)

[hurleyfor3]

The Bitcoin Bowl? No way. We'll be leading 28-20, when all of sudden two of our touchdowns will disappear.

[OldPhiKap]

The Bitcoin Bowl? No way. We'll be leading 28-20, when all of sudden two of our touchdowns will disappear.

Field goals will be worth 3 points in the first quarter; 9 in the second; 27 in the third; and 12 in the fourth. (Projected)

[BigWayne]

Field goals will be worth 3 points in the first quarter; 9 in the second; 27 in the third; and 12 in the fourth. (Projected)
In reality if it worked like Bitcoin mining really works, you would start out 7 on 7 football, then after you scored some, you could trade some points for more players on the field. The gamble would be how many points to save vs. investing in more bodies.

[Duvall]

Oh well. Pinstripe Bowl?

[Duvall]

Yep, Pinstripe Bowl.

[OldPhiKap]

Orange, until forced to conclude otherwise.

We can win the Coastal.

We can beat FSU.

We have the best coach in the ACC, and a program that reflects it.

[Wander]

Clemson's starting quarterback coming back from injury could be problematic. Their offense has really struggled the past few games without him. But I still think we'll stand a great chance in the championship game and beat them.

[DukeSean]

Orange, until forced to conclude otherwise.

We can win the Coastal.

We can beat FSU.

We have the best coach in the ACC, and a program that reflects it.

Competing for championships. That's always been the goal with this current coaching staff. Looks like we have a legit shot much sooner than anyone outside that staff ever imagined

[devildeac]

Competing for championships. That's always been the goal with this current coaching staff. Looks like we have a legit shot much sooner than anyone outside that staff ever imagined

To pound a platitudinous phrase, one game at a time. If we TCoB with Pitt on Saturday, my volume level increases another decibel or three.

[AncientPsychicT]

Clemson's starting quarterback coming back from injury could be problematic. Their offense has really struggled the past few games without him. But I still think we'll stand a great chance in the championship game and beat them.

In what bizarro world would we play Clempson in the ACCCG? Even if FSU had lost tonight to Lewisville, FSU would still need to lose again for Clempson to make it because the Noles hold the tiebreaker over the Tigers after beating them in OT earlier this year.

And before you say it, Lewisville has 2 ACC losses (Clempson, UVA), so they would not factor into the tiebreaking procedure one bit.



And also, we are still ways away from clinching. I don't want to piss off the weauf gods this early in the season.

[DukeSean]

To pound a platitudinous phrase, one game at a time. If we TCoB with Pitt on Saturday, my volume level increases another decibel or three.

Well, we had a chance last year too, even if it was a Lloyd Christmas chance, of winning the ACC. We can legitimately say we're competing for ACC championships year after year no matter how the rest of the season turns out.

[Wander]

In what bizarro world would we play Clempson in the ACCCG? Even if FSU had lost tonight to Lewisville, FSU would still need to lose again for Clempson to make it because the Noles hold the tiebreaker over the Tigers after beating them in OT earlier this year.

And before you say it, Lewisville has 2 ACC losses (Clempson, UVA), so they would not factor into the tiebreaking procedure one bit.


Obviously, I was getting cocky about the Louisville score, and also predicting an FSU loss to Miami. But I'll get aboard the FSU train now.

[Olympic Fan]

FSU's win helps keep Duke's slim Orange Bowl hopes alive. As it stands, Duke needs to either:

(1) Win the Coastal and beat FSU in the ACC title game

(2) Win the Coastal and hope FSU makes the four-team playoff AND have the selection committee decide Duke is the second-best ACC team. Right now, that's probably two-loss Clemson, but if Louisville had won, it would probably have killed FSU's playoff chances, sending them to the Orange Bowl ... plus, it would have put two-loss Louisville ahead of Duke in the ACC pecking order.

Right now, we're still looking up at Clemson, but they could lose to Georgia Tech and/or South Carolina. Either one would open the door for an 11-win Duke team.

I know it's still a long shot -- and we've got to win out in the regular season (as we did a year ago). But if Louisville had pulled the upset, our Orange chances would have all but disappeared (except for the longshot that we win the ACC title game).

[Reilly]

FSU 8-0, 5-0

DUKE 7-1, 3-1

GT 7-2, 4-2

Clemson 6-2, 5-1

BC 6-3, 3-2
Miami 6-3, 3-2
L'ville 6-3, 4-3

------------------------------------------

NC State 5-4, 1-4

-------------------------------------------

UNC 4-5, 2-3
UVA 4-5, 2-3
PITT 4-5, 2-3
VT 4-5, 1-4

SYR 3-6, 1-4

WF 2-6, 0-4

[Bob Green]

Duke is up to #20 in the Week 11 Coaches Poll:

http://sportspolls.usatoday.com/ncaa/football/polls/coaches-poll/

The AP Poll should be released around 2 pm EST.

[nyesq83]

Top 20. Exactly where I expected them to begrudgingly place us.

[uh_no]

Duke is up to #20 in the Week 11 Coaches Poll:

http://sportspolls.usatoday.com/ncaa/football/polls/coaches-poll/

The AP Poll should be released around 2 pm EST.

22 in the ap pool

[OldPhiKap]

Top 20. Exactly where I expected them to begrudgingly place us.

Not sure why the coaches would "begrudge" us for anything (?)

And, FWIW, I think we are ranked adequately.

[Reilly]

Looking quickly upthread, was this answered definitively?

Heather seems to think that the ACC replacement will be based on the playoff committee's ranking:

http://espn.go.com/blog/acc/post/_/id/76453/playoff-breakdown-if-the-games-were-today

[loran16]

Looking quickly upthread, was this answered definitively?

Heather seems to think that the ACC replacement will be based on the playoff committee's ranking:

http://espn.go.com/blog/acc/post/_/id/76453/playoff-breakdown-if-the-games-were-today

I think this is correct - there was confusion based upon the vague wording, but it would be keeping in form with how the bowls worked previously.

We need Clemson to lose for us to make the Orange Bowl.

[devildeac]

From Giglio's column in the Raleigh N&O today listing the 10 teams that "need no help" to make it to the CFP:



"9. Duke (7-1)

What’s left: at Syracuse, Virginia Tech, UNC, Wake Forest, ACC title game

Outlook: OK, stop laughing.

If the Blue Devils go 11-1 and then beat 12-0 FSU in the ACC title game in Charlotte on Dec. 6, guess who’s crashing the Final Four?"


His predictions from another part of his column:


"New Year’s bowls:

Fiesta: Kansas State vs. Notre Dame

Cotton: Ole Miss vs. Michigan State

Peach: Marshall vs. Auburn

Orange: Duke vs. Alabama"

[Wander]

From Giglio's column in the Raleigh N&O today listing the 10 teams that "need no help" to make it to the CFP:



"9. Duke (7-1)

What’s left: at Syracuse, Virginia Tech, UNC, Wake Forest, ACC title game

Outlook: OK, stop laughing.

If the Blue Devils go 11-1 and then beat 12-0 FSU in the ACC title game in Charlotte on Dec. 6, guess who’s crashing the Final Four?"


Doesn't the fact that FSU is 12-0 in the ACC title game in this scenario count as "needing help?" And what if, say, Mississippi State, Oregon, Michigan State, and TCU all win out? It's my opinion that Duke doesn't have a chance at all this season... but even if you disagree with that, I think we all can agree that Duke definitely doesn't belong in a "needing no help" category.

[devildeac]

Doesn't the fact that FSU is 12-0 in the ACC title game in this scenario count as "needing help?" And what if, say, Mississippi State, Oregon, Michigan State, and TCU all win out? It's my opinion that Duke doesn't have a chance at all this season... but even if you disagree with that, I think we all can agree that Duke definitely doesn't belong in a "needing no help" category.

Here's the link. Read the article and see if you still have that question. His premise is that if any of the 10 teams listed win their remaining games, they need no help. FSU is #1 on his list.

http://www.newsobserver.com/2014/11/02/4288011/late-hits-joe-giglios-take-on.html?sp=/99/103/

[devildeac]

Doesn't the fact that FSU is 12-0 in the ACC title game in this scenario count as "needing help?" And what if, say, Mississippi State, Oregon, Michigan State, and TCU all win out? It's my opinion that Duke doesn't have a chance at all this season... but even if you disagree with that, I think we all can agree that Duke definitely doesn't belong in a "needing no help" category.

And it's his opinion that Duke has a chance. Quoted from his article. Not stated as my opinion one way or another. Posted for discussion. I believe I read that Cut has been asked this scenario and I believe he has stated he'd campaign hard for Duke if the situation presented itself.

[wilko]

Excuse me but my brain is too small for this line of conversation right now...

I'm still getting used to the idea of Duke being in the W column in Football.
The most recent Coaches poll has Duke 1 slot behind Clemson. Not week 2 in-conference, no...
like 10 weeks into the season; in a NATIONAL poll... What planet is this?

For years (with some exceptions) Duke Football was at best a footnote and at worst a punchline.
For the past 2 yrs we have been THE feelgood story of the ACC. UNC, FSU, SU all have some type of issues they can not outrun. Duke is getting it done w/o the same distractions... So wheres the love for Duke? HELLLOOOOOO... The local media narrative is the Coastal is a Dumpster fire... At what point is the discussion about Duke front and center?

After YEARS of having FB shoved down our throats for not being competitive enough... Now, folks are not only taking us serious, they are getting BEAT and we have their attention... The opposition has gone from seeing Duke on the schedule and thinking "Easy win" to "oh no, you cant lose to Duke" to "Dukes gonna be a tuff game"... the next step is to go to "Oh no, we gotta play THEM?" Its amazing how far we HAVE come....

This has been an amazing ride.
I'm enjoying it and taking nothing for granted. And of course tormenting other fan-bases as often as I can.

I'll get more into the bowl thoughts and pay attention after a few more games...

[bob blue devil]

Here's the link. Read the article and see if you still have that question. His premise is that if any of the 10 teams listed win their remaining games, they need no help. FSU is #1 on his list.

http://www.newsobserver.com/2014/11/02/4288011/late-hits-joe-giglios-take-on.html?sp=/99/103/

Maybe I misunderstand, but I agree with Wander. Duke needs an undefeated FSU in the acccg to have a shot. FSU loses one or more before then and we're done because of strength of schedule. Thus, duke doesn't control it's own destiny in the scenario given/it needs help. I think the author of the article may have taken an undefeated FSU in the acccg for granted in his commentary.

[BigWayne]

Looking quickly upthread, was this answered definitively?

Heather seems to think that the ACC replacement will be based on the playoff committee's ranking:

http://espn.go.com/blog/acc/post/_/id/76453/playoff-breakdown-if-the-games-were-today

It's hard to tell from what you actually see get published on the internet, but I believe the Orange Bowl gets to choose the replacement team. That being said, they are unlikely to go against the CFP rankings in that choice.

If Clemson and FSU win out and we don't get to the Orange Bowl by winning the ACCCG, we also need ND to win out so they don't nab the Russell Athletic bid. It's going to be tough not being able to root completely against them.

[Reilly]

Depending on the ease of swapping flights/using the purchase for some other flight if need be, it could make sense to book today if prices are lower than they'll be on December 7.

So, what's your best guess as to where Duke ends up?

Orlando-Nashville-Charlotte the top 3?

[paris95]

Phil Steele has us dropping all the way to the Bitcoin bowl. I'm not sure, but I think we'd have to drop 3 of the remaining 4 to fall that far. Clemson getting passed for the Orange Bowl would knock everyone else in the ACC down a bowl, but I don't see how so many other teams would jump over us unless we just collapse down the stretch, which obviously is what Phil is assuming. Oh well, all we can do is keep winning, and if we do, we'll end up in a great bowl. We haven't been doing this bowl thing long enough for me to get too worked up about possibilities with four games to go. I'm just glad that we're starting to play meaningful football in November every year!

There are a number of other eyebrow raising picks in Steele's projections: Carolina in the Russ Athletic Bowl, Oklahoma in the CFP, and UCLA in the Fiesta. After last week's win, I guess UCLA could keep rolling, but Oklahoma would need A LOT of help to get to the CFP, and I'm not sure how UNCheat can even get to the Russ Bowl. Looks like he's assuming that the SEC and Pac 12 will be rewarded for being tough conferences and the ACC will be punished for not being one.

https://www.philsteele.com/bowls/13-14/bowlprojections.html

[hurleyfor3]

Depending on the ease of swapping flights/using the purchase for some other flight if need be, it could make sense to book today if prices are lower than they'll be on December 7.

So, what's your best guess as to where Duke ends up?

Orlando-Nashville-Charlotte the top 3?

ATL, then drive :p

[Duvall]

Phil Steele has us dropping all the way to the Bitcoin bowl. I'm not sure, but I think we'd have to drop 3 of the remaining 4 to fall that far. Clemson getting passed for the Orange Bowl would knock everyone else in the ACC down a bowl, but I don't see how so many other teams would jump over us unless we just collapse down the stretch, which obviously is what Phil is assuming. Oh well, all we can do is keep winning, and if we do, we'll end up in a great bowl. We haven't been doing this bowl thing long enough for me to get too worked up about possibilities with four games to go. I'm just glad that we're starting to play meaningful football in November every year!

There are a number of other eyebrow raising picks in Steele's projections: Carolina in the Russ Athletic Bowl, Oklahoma in the CFP, and UCLA in the Fiesta. After last week's win, I guess UCLA could keep rolling, but Oklahoma would need A LOT of help to get to the CFP, and I'm not sure how UNCheat can even get to the Russ Bowl. Looks like he's assuming that the SEC and Pac 12 will be rewarded for being tough conferences and the ACC will be punished for not being one.

https://www.philsteele.com/bowls/13-14/bowlprojections.html

That's an outdated link. I think this one is current, with Duke to Music City. (https://www.philsteele.com/bowls/14-15/bowlprojections.html)

[paris95]

That's an outdated link. I think this one is current, with Duke to Music City. (https://www.philsteele.com/bowls/14-15/bowlprojections.html)

Ok, thanks. Very strange, the one I had said updated Nov 3, 2014 as well, but I like your link much better. Maybe the first one was his rough draft which he scrapped once he saw how ridiculous it looked.

[nmduke2001]

I let my mind drift into "what-if" mode sometimes. If we had left Miami with a win, this would be a VERY intersting remaining few months of the season for Duke Football.

As it stands, I still believe that we can finish 11-1 and beat FSU in the championship game and basically force ourselves into a significant bowl game.

[Wander]

And it's his opinion that Duke has a chance. Quoted from his article. Not stated as my opinion one way or another. Posted for discussion. I believe I read that Cut has been asked this scenario and I believe he has stated he'd campaign hard for Duke if the situation presented itself.

Understood. The author makes a lot of unstated assumptions in the article, including:

1. FSU winning out the regular season
2. A 12-1 Duke team will definitely leapfrog a 12-1 Michigan State or 12-1 Ohio State team
3. A 12-1 Duke team will definitely leapfrog all the SEC teams except the SEC champion

I admit I am rethinking my stance a little bit on "Duke has no chance if we win out and beat undefeated #1 FSU in the title game"... we might have a very small chance, if a bunch of other stuff happens, and the committee decides to place a huge amount of weight on conference championships. But it's definitely not a sure thing.

[devildeac]

Understood. The author makes a lot of unstated assumptions in the article, including:

1. FSU winning out the regular season
2. A 12-1 Duke team will definitely leapfrog a 12-1 Michigan State or 12-1 Ohio State team
3. A 12-1 Duke team will definitely leapfrog all the SEC teams except the SEC champion

I admit I am rethinking my stance a little bit on "Duke has no chance if we win out and beat undefeated #1 FSU in the title game"... we might have a very small chance, if a bunch of other stuff happens, and the committee decides to place a huge amount of weight on conference championships. But it's definitely not a sure thing.

Doesn't sound like you're buying airline tix/making hotel reservations. ;)


(neither am I:o)

[duke79]

Excuse me but my brain is too small for this line of conversation right now...

I'm still getting used to the idea of Duke being in the W column in Football.
The most recent Coaches poll has Duke 1 slot behind Clemson. Not week 2 in-conference, no...
like 10 weeks into the season; in a NATIONAL poll... What planet is this?

For years (with some exceptions) Duke Football was at best a footnote and at worst a punchline.
For the past 2 yrs we have been THE feelgood story of the ACC. UNC, FSU, SU all have some type of issues they can not outrun. Duke is getting it done w/o the same distractions... So wheres the love for Duke? HELLLOOOOOO... The local media narrative is the Coastal is a Dumpster fire... At what point is the discussion about Duke front and center?

After YEARS of having FB shoved down our throats for not being competitive enough... Now, folks are not only taking us serious, they are getting BEAT and we have their attention... The opposition has gone from seeing Duke on the schedule and thinking "Easy win" to "oh no, you cant lose to Duke" to "Dukes gonna be a tuff game"... the next step is to go to "Oh no, we gotta play THEM?" Its amazing how far we HAVE come....

This has been an amazing ride.
I'm enjoying it and taking nothing for granted. And of course tormenting other fan-bases as often as I can.

I'll get more into the bowl thoughts and pay attention after a few more games...

Couldn't agree more. After the last 20 years or so of Duke football (excluding, maybe the last 2 years), it's hard to fathom Duke playing Alabama in the Orange Bowl. If that should happen, I think Cut should be nominated for sainthood.

[AIRFORCEDUKIE]

Couldn't agree more. After the last 20 years or so of Duke football (excluding, maybe the last 2 years), it's hard to fathom Duke playing Alabama in the Orange Bowl. If that should happen, I think Cut should be nominated for sainthood.

Here is my plans for bowl season in order or my preferred scenario.

Orange Bowl- Drive down to Miami, tailgate my butt off watch game drive home

Russell Athletic Bowl- Drive up to Orlando tailgate my butt off stay at friends house

Any other game- watch on tv in disappointment because its not being played in my back yard. (with the exception of any CFP games, in which case I will just be awe struck)

I think Clemson has a legit shot at losing 1 or 2 more games, which I am hoping for. Rooting for Notre Dame and FSU to keep winning. Orange Bowl or Bust!!!!

[SilkyJ]

Here's the link. Read the article and see if you still have that question. His premise is that if any of the 10 teams listed win their remaining games, they need no help. FSU is #1 on his list.

http://www.newsobserver.com/2014/11/02/4288011/late-hits-joe-giglios-take-on.html?sp=/99/103/


Doesn't the fact that FSU is 12-0 in the ACC title game in this scenario count as "needing help?" And what if, say, Mississippi State, Oregon, Michigan State, and TCU all win out? It's my opinion that Duke doesn't have a chance at all this season... but even if you disagree with that, I think we all can agree that Duke definitely doesn't belong in a "needing no help" category.


From Giglio's column in the Raleigh N&O today listing the 10 teams that "need no help" to make it to the CFP:

"9. Duke (7-1)

What’s left: at Syracuse, Virginia Tech, UNC, Wake Forest, ACC title game

Outlook: OK, stop laughing.

If the Blue Devils go 11-1 and then beat 12-0 FSU in the ACC title game in Charlotte on Dec. 6, guess who’s crashing the Final Four?"


I fancy myself an optimist, even if not quite an Ozzimist, but its a pointless discussion. 45-7 last year and it wasn't pretty...it wont be much better this year if we get there, which we should. Will be head over heels to eat my crow on this one, but methinks that's unlikely.

[Duvall]

I fancy myself an optimist, even if not quite an Ozzimist, but its a pointless discussion. 45-7 last year and it wasn't pretty...it wont be much better this year if we get there, which we should. Will be head over heels to eat my crow on this one, but methinks that's unlikely.

I mean, this is all premised on the idea that FSU is a significantly worse team than they were last year, and everything to date points to that being true.

[duke79]

I fancy myself an optimist, even if not quite an Ozzimist, but its a pointless discussion. 45-7 last year and it wasn't pretty...it wont be much better this year if we get there, which we should. Will be head over heels to eat my crow on this one, but methinks that's unlikely.

Yea, I'm no football expert.......but seems to me (and not being a pessimist) that beating Fl. State would be a long shot.....but I guess we can dream.....like Duke beating UNLV in BB........

[SilkyJ]

I mean, this is all premised on the idea that FSU is a significantly worse team than they were last year, and everything to date points to that being true.

If 8-0 and ranked #2 is "significantly worse" I'll have some of that please

[Duvall]

If 8-0 and ranked #2 is "significantly worse" I'll have some of that please

I didn't say they weren't really good! But last year's FSU team was legitimately great.

You can hope for an upset against a really good team. To beat a great team you better have S-E-C talent.

[SilkyJ]

I didn't say they weren't really good! But last year's FSU team was legitimately great.

You can hope for an upset against a really good team. To beat a great team you better have S-E-C talent.

Its tough to know if they're really good or great yet, much like last year, b/c of the weak schedule. We'll just have to wait and see how they do in the CFP.

For now I'm giving them credit since they're riding a 22 game win-streak (24 if you count 2012) and have the reigning heisman winner.

[OldPhiKap]

I kinda follow FSU for personal reasons, and saw them live both this year and last year.

FSU last year had a dominant defense. They are still very good but not as sharp as last year.

FSU last year had Benjamin, the human dynamo. They are still very good but that kid was unstoppable.

They have trailed at the half several times this year, I don't recall them having the same problem last year.

------

We are better than we were last year.



What does that add up to? We would still be an underdog in a match with FSU, most likely a significant underdog. But we are better prepared for that kind of game after having done it (for the first time) last year, and I would expect a closer game.

Can we beat them? Well, Vegas couldn't be beaten either and we know how that turned out.

I say -- you never know if you don't get the chance to get out there and try. Keep winning the next four weeks, worry about our post-season game(s) as things unfold.

[Olympic Fan]

I think it is a dual edge sword -- yes, I think we play them closer this year, but the only circumstance I can see where we beat them is if Winston is suspended.

But if we win that way, it wouldn't give us the boost we'd need to get in the playoff discussion.

Frankly, I think it's (1) a tough haul to finish 11-1; (2) a longshot that we beat FSU; and (3) even if that happens and we are 12-1 ACC champs, we'd still be a long way from Final Four consideration because of a weak schedule.

It's not going to happen this year. I love to dream big, but I think the Orange Bowl is a legitimate big dream for this team. There are two ways we can get in the Orange (1) win out and hope that Clemson loses another game (to Georgia Tech or South Carolina); or (2) beat FSU -- with or without Winston -- in the ACC title game (and if this happens, it doesn't matter if we are 11-1, 10-2 or even 9-3 going into the title game).

[BigWayne]

Ok, thanks. Very strange, the one I had said updated Nov 3, 2014 as well, but I like your link much better. Maybe the first one was his rough draft which he scrapped once he saw how ridiculous it looked.

Your link was pointing to a file for last year.

This year, it's looking like the ACC might not have enough teams to put one in the Bitcoin bowl.

[OldPhiKap]

Your link was pointing to a file for last year.

This year, it's looking like the ACC might not have enough teams to put one in the Bitcoin bowl.

So the bitcoin is just an illusory promise?

Talk about irony.

[paris95]

Your link was pointing to a file for last year.

This year, it's looking like the ACC might not have enough teams to put one in the Bitcoin bowl.

Ahh, I see, the link I shared has "13-14" in the URL. Still strange though as it has the CFP bowls/national championship game and the Bahamas Bowl which did not exist in last year's bowl season. Looks like a bad link to some strange version. Oh well, sorry for getting worked up about and sharing a bad link.

[Newton_14]

I kinda follow FSU for personal reasons, and saw them live both this year and last year.

FSU last year had a dominant defense. They are still very good but not as sharp as last year.

FSU last year had Benjamin, the human dynamo. They are still very good but that kid was unstoppable.

They have trailed at the half several times this year, I don't recall them having the same problem last year.

------

We are better than we were last year.



What does that add up to? We would still be an underdog in a match with FSU, most likely a significant underdog. But we are better prepared for that kind of game after having done it (for the first time) last year, and I would expect a closer game.

Can we beat them? Well, Vegas couldn't be beaten either and we know how that turned out.

I say -- you never know if you don't get the chance to get out there and try. Keep winning the next four weeks, worry about our post-season game(s) as things unfold.Not sure I can agree with the bold. I think losing Juwan from special teams, Kelby on defense, and Jela, Braxton, Connette on offense makes this years team not as good as last year. I think we would be significantly better on defense with a linebacking core of Kelby, Cash, Helton. Offensively, there is an argument to be made as to which loss hurts us the most between Braxton, Jela, and Connette. Sirk has filled in nicely for Connette, but there have been times this season where Anthony would have sat for more than a few series if Connette were here, so we miss that. Jela was a punishing power back runner, and while Shaquille has played well, Jela is better. Not having Braxton has really taken away a key weapon in our passing game.

Every single week I find myself dreaming how good we would be with those 4 kids on this team. 12-0 would have been a very realistic goal. I know one shouldn't think about that, especially this late in the season, but I am guilty week after week.

Overall our defense probably is a bit better than last year, maybe, but we haven't seen nearly as many bone crushing hits this year as last. Kelby laid the wood out there. I really missed seeing him get a chance to take on Conner this past Saturday. I don't think Kelby bounces off or gets stiff armed out of bounds. That would have been a fun battle to watch.

I still love this team, don't get me wrong... they are having a great season and are poised for a great finish. I think they have a really good chance to get to 11-1. It will not be easy however, but it is in fact doable. Just get to Charlotte and give it all you have and hope it is enough.

[OldPhiKap]

Not sure I can agree with the bold. I think losing Juwan from special teams, Kelby on defense, and Jela, Braxton, Connette on offense makes this years team not as good as last year. I think we would be significantly better on defense with a linebacking core of Kelby, Cash, Helton. Offensively, there is an argument to be made as to which loss hurts us the most between Braxton, Jela, and Connette. Sirk has filled in nicely for Connette, but there have been times this season where Anthony would have sat for more than a few series if Connette were here, so we miss that. Jela was a punishing power back runner, and while Shaquille has played well, Jela is better. Not having Braxton has really taken away a key weapon in our passing game.

Every single week I find myself dreaming how good we would be with those 4 kids on this team. 12-0 would have been a very realistic goal. I know one shouldn't think about that, especially this late in the season, but I am guilty week after week.

Overall our defense probably is a bit better than last year, maybe, but we haven't seen nearly as many bone crushing hits this year as last. Kelby laid the wood out there. I really missed seeing him get a chance to take on Conner this past Saturday. I don't think Kelby bounces off or gets stiff armed out of bounds. That would have been a fun battle to watch.

I still love this team, don't get me wrong... they are having a great season and are poised for a great finish. I think they have a really good chance to get to 11-1. It will not be easy however, but it is in fact doable. Just get to Charlotte and give it all you have and hope it is enough.

There are certainly folks from last year's team that I wish we had this year. There are players this year that I would have loved to have last year.

Perhaps a more accurate thing to say is -- this team is better prepared that last year's.

Since this time last year, we played in the ACC CC and a major bowl. Our QB is more experienced. We have won (IIRC) 15 of our last 16 regular season games. Out O line is truly elite. Our depth continues to improve.

Last year, playing FSU in the ACC CC was magical. This year, these guy expect to do it and have a better idea of what it takes to play at the level that a major game requires.

[HK Dukie]

Depending on the ease of swapping flights/using the purchase for some other flight if need be, it could make sense to book today if prices are lower than they'll be on December 7.

So, what's your best guess as to where Duke ends up?

Orlando-Nashville-Charlotte the top 3?

Buy two tickets

New Orleans, Jan 1st
Arlington Texas, January 12th

[budwom]

I don't follow Clemmons much, but I do know that if they don't get their starting QB back, GT will probably beat them. They barely got by Syracuse with the backup QB...

[Reilly]

Last week, 6/7 of the prognosticators listed on the Rusell Athletic Bowl site had Duke in the game:

Jerry Palm (CBSSports) – Duke vs. Baylor

Phil Steele (Phil Steele’s College Football Preview) – Louisville vs. Kansas State

Brett McMurphy (ESPN) – Duke vs. West Virginia

Mark Schlabach (ESPN) – Duke vs. Oklahoma

Bill Bender (Sporting News) – Duke vs. West Virginia

David M. Hale (ESPN ACC Blog)/Brandon Chatmon (Big 12 Blog) – Duke vs. Baylor

Brant Parsons (Orlando Sentinel) – Duke vs. TCU


What's interesting is that bowl does not seem to have a set start time. The official site says "Late December 2014" on its front page. ESPN is listing the game as Monday December 29 but time TBD.

Duke hoops plays Toledo on Monday Dec 29 at 7 pm on espn2. Could be kinda cool for Duke football to be playing on espn at the same time.

[94duke]

Last week, 6/7 of the prognosticators listed on the Rusell Athletic Bowl site had Duke in the game:

Jerry Palm (CBSSports) – Duke vs. Baylor

Phil Steele (Phil Steele’s College Football Preview) – Louisville vs. Kansas State

Brett McMurphy (ESPN) – Duke vs. West Virginia

Mark Schlabach (ESPN) – Duke vs. Oklahoma

Bill Bender (Sporting News) – Duke vs. West Virginia

David M. Hale (ESPN ACC Blog)/Brandon Chatmon (Big 12 Blog) – Duke vs. Baylor

Brant Parsons (Orlando Sentinel) – Duke vs. TCU


What's interesting is that bowl does not seem to have a set start time. The official site says "Late December 2014" on its front page. ESPN is listing the game as Monday December 29 but time TBD.

Duke hoops plays Toledo on Monday Dec 29 at 7 pm on espn2. Could be kinda cool for Duke football to be playing on espn at the same time.

This would not be cool. It would be difficult to watch the bowl game inside Cameron. ;-)

[OldPhiKap]

This would not be cool. It would be difficult to watch the bowl game inside Cameron. ;-)

My thought is the opposite -- trying to get the hoops game on the Jumbotron.

[GGLC]

Not sure I can agree with the bold. I think losing Juwan from special teams, Kelby on defense, and Jela, Braxton, Connette on offense makes this years team not as good as last year. I think we would be significantly better on defense with a linebacking core of Kelby, Cash, Helton. Offensively, there is an argument to be made as to which loss hurts us the most between Braxton, Jela, and Connette. Sirk has filled in nicely for Connette, but there have been times this season where Anthony would have sat for more than a few series if Connette were here, so we miss that. Jela was a punishing power back runner, and while Shaquille has played well, Jela is better. Not having Braxton has really taken away a key weapon in our passing game.

Every single week I find myself dreaming how good we would be with those 4 kids on this team. 12-0 would have been a very realistic goal. I know one shouldn't think about that, especially this late in the season, but I am guilty week after week.

Overall our defense probably is a bit better than last year, maybe, but we haven't seen nearly as many bone crushing hits this year as last. Kelby laid the wood out there. I really missed seeing him get a chance to take on Conner this past Saturday. I don't think Kelby bounces off or gets stiff armed out of bounds. That would have been a fun battle to watch.

I still love this team, don't get me wrong... they are having a great season and are poised for a great finish. I think they have a really good chance to get to 11-1. It will not be easy however, but it is in fact doable. Just get to Charlotte and give it all you have and hope it is enough.

Because I'm not allowed to spork you, I wanted to say how great a post this was.

[BigWayne]

Depending on the ease of swapping flights/using the purchase for some other flight if need be, it could make sense to book today if prices are lower than they'll be on December 7.



20 years ago, I might consider this argument. The way the airlines work today, this just doesn't work out.

[Reilly]

... The way the airlines work today, this just doesn't work out.

Sure it does, at least on Southwest, where I believe there are no change fees. Today, I'm looking at $361.20 roundtrip to Orlando, $287.70 roundtrip to Nashville, and $196 roundtrip to Charlotte -- arriving in each city the day before the bowl and leaving the day after the bowl. So, let's say I lock in one of those prices today. What will they be costing a month-plus from now on December 7 when the bowls are announced?

If there will be higher prices on December 7 (and I guessed right on the city), then I've saved myself some money.

If higher prices on December 7 (and I guessed wrong), then I put the $$ toward wherever the destination is.

If I've guessed really wrong (that is, Southwest doesn't fly close to the host city), then I book some other flight on Southwest for sometime later.

[hurleyfor3]

Sure it does, at least on Southwest, where I believe there are no change fees. Today, I'm looking at $361.20 roundtrip to Orlando, $287.70 roundtrip to Nashville, and $196 roundtrip to Charlotte -- arriving in each city the day before the bowl and leaving the day after the bowl. So, let's say I lock in one of those prices today. What will they be costing a month-plus from now on December 7 when the bowls are announced?

Considering it's over the holidays, the specific days you want to fly and hotel and rental car rates at the destination will probably affect the cost more than airfare will. For example, more people want to be in Orlando during that time than Charlotte. A lot more.

I would be checking hotels and rental cars (if needed) in addition to flights.

[BigWayne]

Sure it does, at least on Southwest, where I believe there are no change fees. Today, I'm looking at $361.20 roundtrip to Orlando, $287.70 roundtrip to Nashville, and $196 roundtrip to Charlotte -- arriving in each city the day before the bowl and leaving the day after the bowl. So, let's say I lock in one of those prices today. What will they be costing a month-plus from now on December 7 when the bowls are announced?

If there will be higher prices on December 7 (and I guessed right on the city), then I've saved myself some money.

If higher prices on December 7 (and I guessed wrong), then I put the $$ toward wherever the destination is.

If I've guessed really wrong (that is, Southwest doesn't fly close to the host city), then I book some other flight on Southwest for sometime later.
OK, so there is one airline you can escape change fees. So if you can get there on Southwest from where you are and you pick the right one you can save. Pretty much any other airline, you are just asking for them to screw you.

[BigWayne]

So the bitcoin is just an illusory promise?

Talk about irony.

So to follow up.....the ACC has 11 bowl spots in the list as of this moment due to FSU being expected to make the playoff. Last weeks ESPN projections are below.

Bolded teams are eligible already. NCSU at 5-4 is likely to get eligible by beating Wake.
We have 4 teams at 4-5 (VT, UVA, Pitt, UNC) that need two out of 3 wins. The Pitt@UNC game is
pretty much a playoff for eligibility. The loser would have to win their last two games, which they
will not be favored to do. The final UVA@VT game is also likely a situation where the loser cannot
be bowl eligible. Odds right now are that VT wins that game to get eligibility and UVA is out in the cold.
However, UVA winning that game probably means they are both out.

So right now, I expect 2 out of the 4 4-5 teams to get eligible along with State, putting the ACC at
10 eligible teams for 11 spots. The most likely way the Bitcoin gets an ACC team is a loss by FSU or ND.
If both of them lose, then the ACC will likely have an orphan team trying to find another conference's slot somewhere.

College Football Playoff: Florida State
Capital One Orange Bowl: Clemson vs. Notre Dame*
Russell Athletic Bowl: Duke
Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl: Louisville
Belk Bowl: Georgia Tech
Hyundai Sun Bowl: Miami
New Era Pinstripe Bowl: Boston College
Military Bowl presented By Northrop Grumman: Virginia
Duck Commander Independence Bowl: Virginia Tech
Quick Lane Bowl: North Carolina
Bitcoin St. Petersburg Bowl: NC State

* Note: If Notre Dame is not invited to the College Football Playoff or a New Year’s Six bowl game, it will assume one of the ACC’s bowl spots.

[bleudiable]

Buy two tickets

New Orleans, Jan 1st
Arlington Texas, January 12th

ESPN added a "Duke" entry to their flipping bracket slots in their latest CFP show ad. I can't find it online to capture the image. A little help, someone with more technical expertise/equipment than I?

[BigWayne]

ESPN added a "Duke" entry to their flipping bracket slots in their latest CFP show ad. I can't find it online to capture the image. A little help, someone with more technical expertise/equipment than I?

Saw that last week. I wonder if they will update that ad as the weeks pass or not.

[BigWayne]

Well ESPN agrees with me in their latest projections, leaving the Bitcoin bowl off the list. Still in Duke's interest for FSU and ND to go undefeated and for Clemson to drop a game or two.

College Football Playoff: Florida State*
Capital One Orange Bowl: Clemson* vs. Notre Dame*
Russell Athletic Bowl: Duke*
Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl: Louisville*
Belk Bowl: Georgia Tech*
Hyundai Sun Bowl: Miami*
New Era Pinstripe Bowl: Boston College*
Military Bowl presented By Northrop Grumman: Virginia Tech
Duck Commander Independence Bowl: Pittsburgh
Quick Lane Bowl: NC State

Note: If Notre Dame is not invited to the College Football Playoff or a New Year’s Six bowl game, it will assume one of the ACC’s bowl spots.

*-Bowl-eligible

[Duvall]

It's hard to tell from what you actually see get published on the internet, but I believe the Orange Bowl gets to choose the replacement team. That being said, they are unlikely to go against the CFP rankings in that choice.

Okay, so this is weird. On Orange Bowl replacements: (http://www.dailypress.com/dp-spt-teel-column-cfp-rankings-20141106-column.html)


Here's how: If Florida State wins the league title and qualifies for the playoff — this season's semifinals are the Rose and Sugar bowls — the next ACC team on the committee's food chain heads to the Orange to face the highest-ranked available opponent from among the Big Ten, Southeastern Conference and Notre Dame.

...

But back to the matter at hand: the ACC's Orange Bowl team presuming Florida State makes the playoff. What if Clemson, Duke and Georgia Tech — the Yellow Jackets close the regular season at Georgia — fall from the committee's top 25 and no other ACC team vaults up to replace them?

Michael Strickland, the league's senior associate commissioner for football, said Wednesday that the ACC office, in concert with the Orange Bowl, SEC, Big Ten and Notre Dame, would determine the conference's rep.

Huh.

[BigWayne]

Okay, so this is weird. On Orange Bowl replacements: (http://www.dailypress.com/dp-spt-teel-column-cfp-rankings-20141106-column.html)



Huh.

Well I think this confirms the previous statement somebody made that the replacement team is a function of the CFP rankings. But as it states, if there is not a 2nd ACC team in the CFP list, which only goes down to 25, then the ACC and/or the Orange Bowl would have to decide.

[Acymetric]

Well I think this confirms the previous statement somebody made that the replacement team is a function of the CFP rankings. But as it states, if there is not a 2nd ACC team in the CFP list, which only goes down to 25, then the ACC and/or the Orange Bowl would have to decide.

Seems like a highly unlikely scenario that only FSU is in the top 25 at the end of the season doesn't it?

[Wander]

Seems like a highly unlikely scenario that only FSU is in the top 25 at the end of the season doesn't it?

If the Coastal Division winner has 3 losses and Clemson loses to South Carolina, this could happen (though Clemson might still be ranked in that case - depends on what other teams do). I agree it's not likely - mostly because I don't think we'll lose two more times! - but it's still a realistic scenario in play.

[BigWayne]

Seems like a highly unlikely scenario that only FSU is in the top 25 at the end of the season doesn't it?

Not at all really.

I am hoping Duke is in there with them but I wouldn't be surprised if they are the only two. GT and Clemson play each other. Whichever one loses will drop out. Then they both play their big instate SEC rivals where it will be no surprise if they lose. Miami and BC still have to play FSU, so their odds of moving into the top 25 are not favorable. Louisville has BC and ND to play, so there is a good chance they pick up another loss also.

If Duke loses to anyone besides FSU, we will fall out. None of the teams left on our schedule can possibly move up either.

[wilson]

FWIW, Sports Illustrated's latest projection (http://www.si.com/college-football/2014/11/04/college-football-bowl-projections) has us in the Orange Bowl against Alabama(!).

[AIRFORCEDUKIE]

FWIW, Sports Illustrated's latest projection (http://www.si.com/college-football/2014/11/04/college-football-bowl-projections) has us in the Orange Bowl against Alabama(!).

Its worth a lot to me....Orange Bowl or bust baby!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Bonus if its against Notre Dame but I will take vs Bama.

[Henderson]

Duke won't get the benefit of the doubt on any bowl invitation if even a colorable argument can be made for another more traditional bowl team. Our traveling fan support and TV ratings potential will lead to those who make the decision to look for a reason to choose someone else. Duke needs to make it impossible for them (whoever they are) to choose anyone else. Even a three-loss Clemson team would likely get the nod over Duke (for example) if Duke has two losses after the ACC Championship game. The excuse would be easy: Clemson lost at FSU in overtime.

[AIRFORCEDUKIE]

Duke won't get the benefit of the doubt on any bowl invitation if even a colorable argument can be made for another more traditional bowl team. Our traveling fan support and TV ratings potential will lead to those who make the decision to look for a reason to choose someone else. Duke needs to make it impossible for them (whoever they are) to choose anyone else. Even a three-loss Clemson team would likely get the nod over Duke (for example) if Duke has two losses after the ACC Championship game. The excuse would be easy: Clemson lost at FSU in overtime.


From what I gather in only the case of the Orange Bowl, whoever is ranked highest in the CFP rankings goes. No matter what anyone says. Now the problem lies if we are not ranked and no other acc team is ranked then I expect we will move way down the totem pole. So win out and make sure you are ranked at the end of the season. See what happens in the ACC Championship game and then we are basically guaranteed Orange or Russell Athletic Bowl I would think. Unless Miami can jump us for the Russell Athletic bowl which I am not sure if they can or not. We shall see I suppose.

[sagegrouse]

Duke won't get the benefit of the doubt on any bowl invitation if even a colorable argument can be made for another more traditional bowl team. Our traveling fan support and TV ratings potential will lead to those who make the decision to look for a reason to choose someone else. Duke needs to make it impossible for them (whoever they are) to choose anyone else. Even a three-loss Clemson team would likely get the nod over Duke (for example) if Duke has two losses after the ACC Championship game. The excuse would be easy: Clemson lost at FSU in overtime.

I thought Duke had big turnouts in Charlotte and Atlanta, although I agree that the perception may be different from reality.

[Dev11]

Duke won't get the benefit of the doubt on any bowl invitation if even a colorable argument can be made for another more traditional bowl team. Our traveling fan support and TV ratings potential will lead to those who make the decision to look for a reason to choose someone else. Duke needs to make it impossible for them (whoever they are) to choose anyone else. Even a three-loss Clemson team would likely get the nod over Duke (for example) if Duke has two losses after the ACC Championship game. The excuse would be easy: Clemson lost at FSU in overtime.

I thought that we traveled well for our last two bowl games, and if they want good bowl performances, our last one was pretty thrilling.

[blazindw]

Pretty sure we sold the most tickets of any ACC bowl team in 2012 and I think we were 2nd to FSU in 2013. Bowl committees understand that we have the ability to bring a ton of loyal fans and our team will make the game entertaining.

[Devil in the Blue Dress]

I thought that we traveled well for our last two bowl games, and if they want good bowl performances, our last one was pretty thrilling.
That is correct. The number of viewers for the A&M game was one of the highest for any bowl games.

[devildeac]

I thought that we traveled well for our last two bowl games, and if they want good bowl performances, our last one was pretty thrilling.


Pretty sure we sold the most tickets of any ACC bowl team in 2012 and I think we were 2nd to FSU in 2013. Bowl committees understand that we have the ability to bring a ton of loyal fans and our team will make the game entertaining.

IIRC, we sold 18-22K tix for each bowl, selling out of our allotment each year. That's pretty darn good.

[OldPhiKap]

I thought Duke had big turnouts in Charlotte and Atlanta, although I agree that the perception may be different from reality.

We had very good crowds for both, and equaled or exceeded the opposition I think. At minimum, we more than held our own.

[Devil in the Blue Dress]

We had very good crowds for both, and equaled or exceeded the opposition I think. At minimum, we more than held our own.

And that's in the ticket office and TV audience.

[CameronBornAndBred]

From the ESPN blog.

The Clemson that was on the field Thursday night, however, likely would not fare well in the Orange Bowl, and the selection committee won’t wake up Friday morning feeling great about the Tigers. It wouldn’t be a shock to see Duke or Georgia Tech jump the Tigers in next week’s rankings frankly.
Of course, we have to beat Syracuse first.
http://espn.go.com/blog/acc/post/_/id/76861/acc-morning-links-48

[dukebluesincebirth]

From the ESPN blog.

Of course, we have to beat Syracuse first.
http://espn.go.com/blog/acc/post/_/id/76861/acc-morning-links-48

Yes, Duke must take care of business and I think Coach Cut will put them in the best position to do that by keeping them focused. As far as Clemson, I think they'll be up for the big game against GTECH and will win that one. However, a friend of mine is a huge SC Gamecock fan, and I can tell you that those folks have absolutely nothing left to care about this season except beating Clemson. I'm predicting a Gamecock victory in that one, and Duke gets a little wink from the ol' ball coach!

[AIRFORCEDUKIE]

Yes, Duke must take care of business and I think Coach Cut will put them in the best position to do that by keeping them focused. As far as Clemson, I think they'll be up for the big game against GTECH and will win that one. However, a friend of mine is a huge SC Gamecock fan, and I can tell you that those folks have absolutely nothing left to care about this season except beating Clemson. I'm predicting a Gamecock victory in that one, and Duke gets a little wink from the ol' ball coach!


That would be a very fitting way to make it there, and would provide a good amount of awesomeness to the whole situation, maybe an article or two the situation and the Ol Ball Coach helping us out. He does love to stick it to whoever his rival is at whatever school he is at. This would be a great way to end their season. I am on board.

[budwom]

Clemson will be much better when their QB gets back, which will be very soon.

[Olympic Fan]

Clemson will be much better when their QB gets back, which will be very soon.

Nail. Head.

I'm sure Cole Stoudt is a decent guy, but he's one of the most mediocre quarterbacks I've ever seen directing a top-flight team. On the other hand, Dashaun Watson will be -- if he stays healthy -- a Heisman candidate next season (if he stays healthy).

Duke is better than Clemson with Stoudt -- a better bowl team too. But with Watson, Clemson is on another level.

Unless there is an unexpected setback, Watson will be back for Clemson's next game -- against Georgia Tech. I think you'll see a very different Clemson team.

[Duvall]

Looks like Russell Athletic Bowl is out. It's Orange or Belk/Pinstripe/Music City.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Looks like Russell Athletic Bowl is out. It's Orange or Belk/Pinstripe/Music City.
This may have been explained further back, but why is it out? (Especially since it is our most common projection.)

[Duvall]

This may have been explained further back, but why is it out? (Especially since it is our most common projection.)

Because Notre Dame is playing their way out of a top six bowl and into an ACC bowl.

[AncientPsychicT]

This may have been explained further back, but why is it out? (Especially since it is our most common projection.)

See for yourself. (http://scores.espn.go.com/ncf/gamecast?gameId=400548302)

[CameronBornAndBred]

See for yourself. (http://scores.espn.go.com/ncf/gamecast?gameId=400548302)
ND still has games against Louisville and at USC. I'm not expecting them to win both of those.

[AncientPsychicT]

ND still has games against Louisville and at USC. I'm not expecting them to win both of those.

This is true. But they have to lose at least one, cause if they don't... :(

[Duvall]

ND still has games against Louisville and at USC. I'm not expecting them to win both of those.

It's Notre Dame. At that point, records won't matter much.

[Reilly]

CFP
Orange
Russell
Tier 1: Belk ... Hyundai Sun ... New Era Pinstripe ... Franklin American Mortgage Music City .... Taxslayer

[CameronBornAndBred]

It's Notre Dame. At that point, records won't matter much.
So an 11-1 divisional champion Duke team would be trumped by an 9-3 ND team?
(P.S...I'm resisting going full Ozzie and saying 12-1/ACC champ team for the sake of argument.)

[freshmanjs]

So an 11-1 divisional champion Duke team would be trumped by an 9-3 ND team?
(P.S...I'm resisting going full Ozzie and saying 12-1/ACC champ team for the sake of argument.)

it's either 11-2 or 12-1 (if no other regular season losses). and, likely yes 9-3 nd over 11-2 duke.

[Duvall]

So an 11-1 divisional champion Duke team would be trumped by an 9-3 ND team?
(P.S...I'm resisting going full Ozzie and saying 12-1/ACC champ team for the sake of argument.)

An 11-2 division champion after a loss in the ACC championship game absolutely would be passed over for a 9-3 Notre Dame team for the Russell Athletic Bowl. (Orange Bowl is a separate process.)

[CameronBornAndBred]

An 11-2 division champion after a loss in the ACC championship game absolutely would be passed over for a 9-3 Notre Dame team for the Russell Athletic Bowl. (Orange Bowl is a separate process.)
Looking forward to finding out. :)

[duke09hms]

An 11-2 division champion after a loss in the ACC championship game absolutely would be passed over for a 9-3 Notre Dame team for the Russell Athletic Bowl. (Orange Bowl is a separate process.)

11-2 Duke vs 8-4 ND (losses to the aforementioned Louisville/USC) could be interesting. With the ACC bowls, bowls can choose any team within +/- 1 conference record, how does it work with ND? +/- 1 overall record?

[Duvall]

11-2 Duke vs 8-4 ND (losses to the aforementioned Louisville/USC) could be interesting. With the ACC bowls, bowls can choose any team within +/- 1 conference record, how does it work with ND? +/- 1 overall record?

The one-win rule no longer exists *except* with respect to Notre Dame - a bowl can't pass over an ACC team more than one win ahead of them. (http://espn.go.com/blog/notre-dame-football/post/_/id/14424/clarifying-the-acc-arrangement) Which means I was wrong, wrong, wrong above - I thought it was a one-loss rule. An 11-2 Duke could not be passed over for a 9-3 Notre Dame team, by rule. A 10-2 Notre Dame team, yes.

[AncientPsychicT]

The one-win rule no longer exists *except* with respect to Notre Dame - a bowl can't pass over an ACC team more than one win ahead of them. (http://espn.go.com/blog/notre-dame-football/post/_/id/14424/clarifying-the-acc-arrangement) Which means I was wrong, wrong, wrong above - I thought it was a one-loss rule. An 11-2 Duke could not be passed over for a 9-3 Notre Dame team, by rule. A 10-2 Notre Dame team, yes.

Actually, they could conceivably still pass us. Here's why:


Notre Dame could step over an ACC team and take its place in one of the non-BCS bowls if its record is better than, equal to or within one win of the ACC team or ranked higher in the BCS standings.

This quote is from the link you posted. If a 9-3 Notre Dame is ahead of an 11-2 Duke in the committee's rankings (which could happen unfortunately :(), then they could get the Russell Athletic Bowl ahead of us. If they go 8-4 however, they probably would be behind us.

I'm assuming that the committee's rankings are what the article meant when it said 'BCS rankings.'

[Duvall]

Actually, they could conceivably still pass us. Here's why:



This quote is from the link you posted. If a 9-3 Notre Dame is ahead of an 11-2 Duke in the committee's rankings (which could happen unfortunately :(), then they could get the Russell Athletic Bowl ahead of us. If they go 8-4 however, they probably would be behind us.

I'm assuming that the committee's rankings are what the article meant when it said 'BCS rankings.'

True, but this Selection Committee hasn't shown much respect for Notre Dame thus far. If they lose again they'll probably be unranked.

[Tripping William]

True, but this Selection Committee hasn't shown much respect for Notre Dame thus far. If they lose again they'll probably be unranked.

And that pick-6 didn't help their cause.

[AncientPsychicT]

True, but this Selection Committee hasn't shown much respect for Notre Dame thus far. If they lose again they'll probably be unranked.

They also haven't shown much respect to Duke either. If we lose to FSU, we might fall behind ND even if they lose again.

[blazindw]

What's the basement bowl for the runner up in the ACCCG? I thought that was the Russell Athletic?

[Duvall]

What's the basement bowl for the runner up in the ACCCG? I thought that was the Russell Athletic?

There isn't one, I think.

[Bob Green]

Phil Steele has updated his projections and has Duke playing Tennessee in Music City Bowl:

http://www.philsteele.com/bowls/14-15/bowlprojections.html

Jerry Palm has Duke playing Oklahoma in the Russell Athletic Bowl:

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/bowls/predictions

[Reilly]

What are the rules?

Stewart Mandel has Duke in the Pinstripe Bowl in NYC

http://www.foxsports.com/college-football/story/cfb-bowl-projections-florida-state-oregon-alabama-tcu-college-football-playoff-111114#livefyre

He has ...

FSU -- CFP
Clemson -- Orange
ND -- Russell

Then there are the ACC #3-#6 (Sun, Nashville, Charlotte, Pinstripe) ...

Duke, GT, Miami and L'ville are in this tier.

I'd be OK with Nashville or Charlotte. Would prefer we not get Sun or Pinstripe.

Is the Taxslayer a possibility for an ACC team this year?

[Bob Green]

Is the Taxslayer a possibility for an ACC team this year?

Yes, per ESPN:

http://espn.go.com/college-football/bowls/projections

TaxSlayer Bowl is SEC vs. ACC/Big Ten.

[wgl1228]

Any way at all Duke makes Final Four if they finish 12-1?

[AIRFORCEDUKIE]

There seems to be a lot of differences in opinions on where Duke will play its bowl game. I saw one that didn't even have Duke in a bowl game which I am assuming was a typo or error of some sort since we are already eligible. I don't know what Notre Dames schedule is like the rest of the way but I guess we need them to lose again, need Clemson to lose and need Miami to lose in order to make it to the Orange Bowl or Russell Athletic which are the two bowls I personally prefer and since they are the 2 best ACC bowls I assume everyone else does too. Maybe the folks living in NC prefer a Belk Bowl over Russell Athletic I don't Know. I also noticed most sites that had Duke in the Orange now have them in the Russell or some other 3-6 bowl because of the Notre Dame loss. I am still holding out hope for an Orange Bowl appearance so that is where my rooting interests will be the next 4 or 5 weeks.

[DukeSean]

Any way at all Duke makes Final Four if they finish 12-1?

nope. almost none at all. worse than Lloyd Christmas' chances.

[BigWayne]

There seems to be a lot of differences in opinions on where Duke will play its bowl game. I saw one that didn't even have Duke in a bowl game which I am assuming was a typo or error of some sort since we are already eligible. I don't know what Notre Dames schedule is like the rest of the way but I guess we need them to lose again, need Clemson to lose and need Miami to lose in order to make it to the Orange Bowl or Russell Athletic which are the two bowls I personally prefer and since they are the 2 best ACC bowls I assume everyone else does too. Maybe the folks living in NC prefer a Belk Bowl over Russell Athletic I don't Know. I also noticed most sites that had Duke in the Orange now have them in the Russell or some other 3-6 bowl because of the Notre Dame loss. I am still holding out hope for an Orange Bowl appearance so that is where my rooting interests will be the next 4 or 5 weeks.

To improve Duke's bowl prospects, we need the following things to happen in order of priority:
1) Duke to keep winning as many games as possible.
2) FSU to keep winning, except against Duke.
3) Clemson to take at least one loss, preferably to GT this weekend.
4) Notre Dame to take at least one more loss.


1st 3 help Orange Bowl prospects. All 4 help Russell bowl prospects.

[tux]

To improve Duke's bowl prospects, we need the following things to happen in order of priority:
1) Duke to keep winning as many games as possible.
2) FSU to keep winning, except against Duke.
3) Clemson to take at least one loss, preferably to GT this weekend.
4) Notre Dame to take at least one more loss.


1st 3 help Orange Bowl prospects. All 4 help Russell bowl prospects.


I have to keep pinching myself that we're all having this conversation. Duke has 4 or 5 games left. We're 8-1. At this point, another 10 win season that also includes a bowl win (regardless of the bowl) would be awesome. One could argue that we're competitive with every team in the ACC except maybe one (FSU) and probably competitive with all but 10-12 teams in the country. (And that range may be too high.) Cut deserves a raise...

[budwom]

Until we play our next two games, I don't think it's possible to predict where we'll end up. Too little data.

I'm just enjoying the ride, and the better we do, the better the bowl bid we'll get. The next two games won't be easy, of that I'm quite certain.
And the third one isn't a gimme, either.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Tonight's ACC bowl projections from the ESPN blog crew.

College Football Playoff: Florida State*
Capital One Orange Bowl: Clemson*
Russell Athletic Bowl: Notre Dame*
TaxSlayer Bowl: Georgia Tech*
Belk Bowl: Duke*
Hyundai Sun Bowl: Louisville*
New Era Pinstripe Bowl: Miami*
Military Bowl presented By Northrop Grumman: Virginia Tech
Duck Commander Independence Bowl: Boston College*
Quick Lane Bowl: NC State

http://espn.go.com/blog/acc/post/_/id/76982/acc-bowl-projections-week-11-4

[AncientPsychicT]

Tonight's ACC bowl projections from the ESPN blog crew.

College Football Playoff: Florida State*
Capital One Orange Bowl: Clemson*
Russell Athletic Bowl: Notre Dame*
TaxSlayer Bowl: Georgia Tech*
Belk Bowl: Duke*
Hyundai Sun Bowl: Louisville*
New Era Pinstripe Bowl: Miami*
Military Bowl presented By Northrop Grumman: Virginia Tech
Duck Commander Independence Bowl: Boston College*
Quick Lane Bowl: NC State

http://espn.go.com/blog/acc/post/_/id/76982/acc-bowl-projections-week-11-4

Fixed the link for you. (http://espn.go.com/blog/acc/post/_/id/76982/acc-bowl-projections-week-11-4)

Something else to consider: If GT wins out (wins over Clemson and Georgia) and we lose in the title game, they'll probably jump us in the bowl pecking order. So having GT beat Clemson is not necessarily in our favor (although it's more likely to be, as UGA is better than South Carolina).

[Reilly]

Per the ACC FB Guide, it seems the Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl (higher up the food chain than the Russell) is also a possibility, if the ACC team's opponent in the Orange is from the Big 10. [This game is called the Capital One Bowl in the ACC FB Guide, but per wiki is the BWW Citrus, I believe.] So to try to figure out where an ACC team might go, we need to become expert in Big 10 bowl tie-ins ....

http://raycomsports.com/sports_labs_docs/m-footbl/2014accfbguide.pdf

I want the best for Duke. So, 12-1 and the CFP. Or the Orange Bowl. Or the Citrus Bowl. Or the Russell.

Of the FIVE tier one bowls (Nashville, Charlotte, NYC, El Paso, and Jacksonville), which feels more marquee to folks?

Nashville - SEC team - 3 pm
Charlotte - SEC team - 6:45 pm
Jacksonville - SEC team - 3:20 pm ... January 2
El Paso - Pac-12 team - 2:00 pm ... two days after Xmas
NYC - Big 10 team - 4:30 pm .... two days after Xmas

Pinstripe Bowl seems like the dregs of these five. Maybe El Paso feels more marquee than Jacksonville ... Nashville and Charlotte seem like 1 and 2.

[BigWayne]

Per the ACC FB Guide, it seems the Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl (higher up the food chain than the Russell) is also a possibility, if the ACC team's opponent in the Orange is from the Big 10. [This game is called the Capital One Bowl in the ACC FB Guide, but per wiki is the BWW Citrus, I believe.] So to try to figure out where an ACC team might go, we need to become expert in Big 10 bowl tie-ins ....

http://raycomsports.com/sports_labs_docs/m-footbl/2014accfbguide.pdf

I want the best for Duke. So, 12-1 and the CFP. Or the Orange Bowl. Or the Citrus Bowl. Or the Russell.

Of the FIVE tier one bowls (Nashville, Charlotte, NYC, El Paso, and Jacksonville), which feels more marquee to folks?

Nashville - SEC team - 3 pm
Charlotte - SEC team - 6:45 pm
Jacksonville - SEC team - 3:20 pm ... January 2
El Paso - Pac-12 team - 2:00 pm ... two days after Xmas
NYC - Big 10 team - 4:30 pm .... two days after Xmas

Pinstripe Bowl seems like the dregs of these five. Maybe El Paso feels more marquee than Jacksonville ... Nashville and Charlotte seem like 1 and 2.
Capital One got their name on the Orange Bowl so they gave up the naming for the Citrus Bowl. This didn't happen until late September this year so preseason stuff still shows it the old way.

[AIRFORCEDUKIE]

Per the ACC FB Guide, it seems the Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl (higher up the food chain than the Russell) is also a possibility, if the ACC team's opponent in the Orange is from the Big 10. [This game is called the Capital One Bowl in the ACC FB Guide, but per wiki is the BWW Citrus, I believe.] So to try to figure out where an ACC team might go, we need to become expert in Big 10 bowl tie-ins ....

http://raycomsports.com/sports_labs_docs/m-footbl/2014accfbguide.pdf

I want the best for Duke. So, 12-1 and the CFP. Or the Orange Bowl. Or the Citrus Bowl. Or the Russell.

Of the FIVE tier one bowls (Nashville, Charlotte, NYC, El Paso, and Jacksonville), which feels more marquee to folks?

Nashville - SEC team - 3 pm
Charlotte - SEC team - 6:45 pm
Jacksonville - SEC team - 3:20 pm ... January 2
El Paso - Pac-12 team - 2:00 pm ... two days after Xmas
NYC - Big 10 team - 4:30 pm .... two days after Xmas

Pinstripe Bowl seems like the dregs of these five. Maybe El Paso feels more marquee than Jacksonville ... Nashville and Charlotte seem like 1 and 2.

I would think the Jan 2 bowl in Jax would be the best bowl to play in with the most eyes on it I would assume. Of course living in Florida I am a bit partial.

[AIRFORCEDUKIE]

I was just thinking I wonder what we would be ranked had we not laid an egg against Miami. Would we be ahead of Notre Dame and Clemson or still in the same general spot? would an undefeated Duke team be in the conversation for a top four CFP spot? I doubt it, but its fun to wonder what if... Maybe if everyone else gets 1 loss except for FSU and we beat them in the ACC Championship game we can find out the answer to this. Providing we win out the rest of the season of course, still a whole lot of football to be played I cant wait to see what happens.

[tux]

Fixed the link for you. (http://espn.go.com/blog/acc/post/_/id/76982/acc-bowl-projections-week-11-4)

Something else to consider: If GT wins out (wins over Clemson and Georgia) and we lose in the title game, they'll probably jump us in the bowl pecking order. So having GT beat Clemson is not necessarily in our favor (although it's more likely to be, as UGA is better than South Carolina).

It's frustrating for Duke to keep winning but somehow fall in these projections. Notre Dame loses and they slide right in ahead of us... I understand why, but... yeah.

I guess FSU must feel the same way, falling to 3rd in the CFB rankings despite being 9-0.

[budwom]

These projections mean absolutely nothing. If we continue to win, we'll get a very good bowl, if we lose, we'll slide down. Don't spend a moment of your time worrying about projections.
If we don't beat VT and UNC (and make no mistake, that will be a tough duo) we'll deserve a slide to some extent.

As of now, Sagarin has us as the 31st best team, with zero wins over top 30 teams. Let's just keep winning, and the bowl situation will take care of itself.

[DukeSean]

Rank em, based off of Chris Bunn's Twitter message:

https://twitter.com/ChrisBunn21/status/532551240493047808/photo/1

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B2QAhWkCMAA1gi8.png

[Wander]

Rank em, based off of Chris Bunn's Twitter message:


What metric has Duke with the 58th ranked strength of schedule, above Nebraska and Wisconsin?

[airowe]

What metric has Duke with the 58th ranked strength of schedule, above Nebraska and Wisconsin?

Football Outsiders' fei: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/fei

[RepoMan]

What metric has Duke with the 58th ranked strength of schedule, above Nebraska and Wisconsin?

If you take a peek at the Nebraska and Wisconsin schedules, they are pretty wretched -- unless you think the Big 10 is any good.

[Wander]

Football Outsiders' fei: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/fei

Interesting. I do think it's an open question as to whether the Big 10 is better than the ACC this season. The ACC still has a bunch of important non-conference games (and games between divisions for the purposes of Duke's schedule) that will probably go a long way toward determining that answer.

[AIRFORCEDUKIE]

Too bad we need the ACC teams to lose to out of conference teams (S.C. and Georgia) in order to help our bowl positioning. But still a valid point.

[Wander]

Too bad we need the ACC teams to lose to out of conference teams (S.C. and Georgia) in order to help our bowl positioning. But still a valid point.

Yeah. Our rooting interests depend on the outcome on the outcome of a hypothetical FSU-Duke game, which of course will not happen until after the Clemson and GT games.

Of course, if you believe that Duke has a 0% chance of making the playoffs - something I still go back and forth about - then there's no downside to rooting for the Clemson-GT winner to lose to their SEC opponent.

[HK Dukie]

Yeah. Our rooting interests depend on the outcome on the outcome of a hypothetical FSU-Duke game, which of course will not happen until after the Clemson and GT games.

Of course, if you believe that Duke has a 0% chance of making the playoffs - something I still go back and forth about - then there's no downside to rooting for the Clemson-GT winner to lose to their SEC opponent.

I was thinking the same thing about rooting interests. As for your second comment, the odds for a 12-1 Duke getting a legit look for the CFP are lower than I expected before unfortunately. Being behind 7-3 LSU, getting passed by two loss Wisconsin, and undefeated FSU being placed below 1 loss Oregon all indicate a lack of respect for the ACC. It's beginning to look like 12-1 won't be good enough unless Duke is the only one loss conference champion (MSU winning out and adding losses to all the SEC teams is fine, because the SEC will get a spot anyway. Might as well tack the losses onto everyone else competing for a second spot). I think we need brand name schools like Bama to get 3 losses. Regardless of how much disrespect there is for the ACC, it would be VERY difficult to take a 3 loss team over a 1 loss conf champ.

On the other hand, in the total random anecdotal arena, I was perusing random internet comments (too much free time) and I noticed a fair number of non-Duke people making the case for a 12-1 Duke team being guaranteed a spot in the CFP. Granted they were trying to win an entirely different argument about why one loss power five champs should get in (and their fav one loss power team specifically), but the key point is third parties were arguing for Duke to get in at 12-1.

I wish Archie Manning was still on the CFP committee. Maybe he would have been able to explain to the committee just how good a coach Duke has and how he brought out the best in his boys, and how this Duke team won't go quietly into the night.

[duke09hms]

Mannnnnn, FSU looks beatable . . .

Cmon Noles!

[Reilly]

FSU 10-0

GT 9-2

DUKE 8-2

Notre Dame 7-3
Clemson 7-3
Louisville 7-3

Miami 6-4
BC 6-4

NCSU 6-5
---------------------------

VT 5-5
UNC 5-5

Pitt 4-6
UVa 4-6

----------------------------

Syr 3-7
WFU 2-8

[-bdbd]

FSU 10-0

GT 9-2

DUKE 8-2

Notre Dame 7-3
Clemson 7-3
Louisville 7-3

Miami 6-4
BC 6-4

NCSU 6-5
---------------------------

VT 5-5
UNC 5-5

Pitt 4-6
UVa 4-6

----------------------------

Syr 3-7
WFU 2-8

==========

If only the bowls had to choose their teams based on records...

[Reilly]

Bowl projection with Duke to Russell and UNC taking a Big 12 slot in the Cactus:

http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2014/11/16/7228063/bowl-projections-2014-college-football-playoff-osu-alabama-fsu

Got me thinking of UNC's plight. Even if they make it to six wins, they could still be left home if there are too many other ACC bowl eligible teams. Or what if FSU trips up and doesn't make the CFP. And what self-respecting bowl would want its brand associated with the poster child for academic dishonesty? In other words, the NCAA may not have put Carolina on probation yet, but there's a deserved black mark next to Carolina's name and that may come into play as the last few slots are doled out. Yes, if they get to go to a non-ACC bowl, it's more money for the conference, but maybe not that much more given it'll be a piddling bowl.

[Duvall]

And what self-respecting bowl would want its brand associated with the poster child for academic dishonesty?

Thanks. I needed a good laugh on a dreary Monday morning.

[BigWayne]

Bowl projection with Duke to Russell and UNC taking a Big 12 slot in the Cactus:

http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2014/11/16/7228063/bowl-projections-2014-college-football-playoff-osu-alabama-fsu

Got me thinking of UNC's plight. Even if they make it to six wins, they could still be left home if there are too many other ACC bowl eligible teams. Or what if FSU trips up and doesn't make the CFP. And what self-respecting bowl would want its brand associated with the poster child for academic dishonesty? In other words, the NCAA may not have put Carolina on probation yet, but there's a deserved black mark next to Carolina's name and that may come into play as the last few slots are doled out. Yes, if they get to go to a non-ACC bowl, it's more money for the conference, but maybe not that much more given it'll be a piddling bowl.

That site's projections are somehow not putting an ACC team in the Music City bowl, which is why NC is slated for another conference's unused slot. I had not heard that the Music City had a split arrangement, but it's possible as there are a lot of these deals now and the ACC has not really put out a definitive list of bowl agreements. If FSU loses, the ACC effectively loses a slot, so an eligible 6-6 team could be looking for an unused conference slot.

[Reilly]

Apparently there can be an ACC team in either the Taxslayer or the Music City, but not in both.

http://www.theacc.com/#!/news-detail/ACC-Announces-New-Six-Year-Football-Bowl-Game-Partnerships_07-18-13_a28l90

That bowl projection had the ACC team in the Taxslayer (which I guess is the Gator Bowl?).

The lack of solid info from the ACC is frustrating -- I just learned this Taxslayer/Music City rule the other day thanks to a poster on the Scout TDD site.

[BigWayne]

Apparently there can be an ACC team in either the Taxslayer or the Music City, but not in both.

http://www.theacc.com/#!/news-detail/ACC-Announces-New-Six-Year-Football-Bowl-Game-Partnerships_07-18-13_a28l90

That bowl projection had the ACC team in the Taxslayer (which I guess is the Gator Bowl?).

The lack of solid info from the ACC is frustrating -- I just learned this Taxslayer/Music City rule the other day thanks to a poster on the Scout TDD site.

After a bit of searching, the SEC is in both the Music City and Taxslayer bowls. Each year, an ACC and Big 10 team will be the opponents. Over a 6 year period, each conference will be in each of the two bowls 3 times, but which year it goes each way is not predetermined. Either way, it is one slot so the total number of contracted spots for the ACC/Notre Dame is 10.

An extra slot comes available if an ACC team or ND makes the playoff. An extra slot also comes available if ND makes the top 12ish and gets selected by the CFP into one of the 4 top bowls not in that years playoff.

Under current conditions, ND will use an ACC bowl spot and FSU will not. There are currently 7 bowl eligible teams after FSU and 2 more can be expected (VT and UNC), which will exactly fill all of the ACC spots.

For the ACC to not fill its spots, a couple upsets need to happen, specifically Wake and UVA over VT and/or NCSU over UNC.
For the ACC to run out of spots, FSU and/or Miami need to lose a game.

[YmoBeThere]

Hopefully things change but even if we pull off the miracle comeback, I'm not sure this helps our case.

[Reilly]

FSU 10-0

GT 9-2

DUKE 8-3

Notre Dame 7-3
Clemson 7-3
Louisville 7-3

Miami 6-4
BC 6-4

NCSU 6-5
UNC 6-5
---------------------------

VT 5-5

Pitt 4-6
UVa 4-6

----------------------------

Syr 3-7
WFU 2-8

[Reilly]

What's the worst case scenario?

GT beats FSU and GT to the Orange.
FSU then to the Russell.
Miami, ND, L'ville, Clemson keep winning and grab the Nashville/Jax, Charlotte, El Paso, and NYC bowls.

We drop out of the tier 1 bowls to Annapolis or Shreveport?

[fuse]

Not that I get one, but a trip to Annapolis and a bowl victory would be my vote.

[Bob Green]

When the season schedule was released lots of folks were excited because the last three games were at home. We have lost the first two. A victory over Wake Forest for a 9-3 record should secure a decent bowl game. Winning a bowl game would be great for this senior class that has been so important to the resurgence of Duke football.

[paris95]

When the season schedule was released lots of folks were excited because the last three games were at home. We have lost the first two. A victory over Wake Forest for a 9-3 record should secure a decent bowl game. Winning a bowl game would be great for this senior class that has been so important to the resurgence of Duke football.

God bless you, Bob. You are always so positive...and you're right! 10-3 would still be a heckuva year and we have a very realistic shot at that. It's disappointing how we ended up here as the last two games were winnable, but 10-3 is still 10-3. Ask the 2004 team if they'd trade places. It would be a fantastic way to wrap up the careers of what has to be the winningest football class ever.

[-bdbd]

Not that I get one, but a trip to Annapolis and a bowl victory would be my vote.

UGH! The high in Annapolis yesterday was in the 40's. Late-Dec. will be colder. No thanks!!!

Still hoping for Russell/Sun/Belk/Gator/Music City. Though I think that we likely just dropped out of the Russell. Though cold, Pinstripes, against the likes of PSU, at least is an attractive city to visit (with lots of Duke alums).

But I do agree that this loss may have prevented two others, by avoiding FSU and then maybe getting a slightly lesser, more beatable bowl opponent. I just pray they don't pair us against MD in the Pinstripes... Yuck!

Think 'warm' thoughts gang!!


:D

[Duvall]

When the season schedule was released lots of folks were excited because the last three games were at home. We have lost the first two. A victory over Wake Forest for a 9-3 record should secure a decent bowl game.

It is no longer possible for Duke to secure a bowl bid of any kind - they must now rely on the largesse of sleazy old men in shabby boardrooms.

[YmoBeThere]

It's disappointing how we ended up here as the last two games were winnable,

You must have seen a very different game last night than I did. Little went right. Now, if you mean that on paper UNC appeared beatable, then I wholeheartedly agree. Unfortunately, those paper holes didn't show up.

I knew it was a bad omen when the '89 41-0 win picture showed up in my FB feed.(And post by someone at Duke)

[Reilly]

We want GT to beat UGA, as that makes our GT win look better, and GT will be above us in the Bowl pecking order anyway.

We want FSU to beat BC, UF and GT and get to the CFP, as that frees up a more marquee ACC bowl slot (potentially for us).

It'd be nice if either L'ville or ND lost their next two games. They play each other first, so does it matter who wins that one? Who's more likely to lose the 2d game -- ND to USC or L'ville to KY?

We want NCSU to beat UNC b/c it's UNC and also b/c UNC beat us.

Would be nice if Miami could be hung with another loss (Virginia and Pitt left, I think).

We want South Carolina to beat Clemson b/c of Spurrier and to push Clemson down below us in the pecking order possibly.

Maybe we root for UVA to beat VT, as that keeps Mike London around (long-term good for everybody in the Coastal save UVa), and would foreclose the possibility of a 7-5 VT being picked over a 9-3 Duke for Annapolis if Duke is looking at Annapolis if the we drop out of tier 1 -- and we could drop out of tier 1 if FSU drops out of the CFP, and so FSU & GT are taking the Russell and Orange, and ND/Clemson/L'ville/Clemson are all in tier 1.

[Reilly]

With FSU to CFP

1. CFP
2. Orange
3. Russell
4. Nashville or Jax
5. Belk
6. El Paso
7. NYC

Figure

(1) FSU
(2) GT
(3) - (7) [five slots] for Duke, ND, Clemson, L'vlle, Miami ....

.... meaning BC, State, UNC, and VT are below us.

And if BC beats FSU, that not only knocks FSU down with the regular folk (their ceiling is Orange Bowl then), but BC probably vaults ahead of us, too. That VT loss is killing us ....

[uh_no]

We want GT to beat UGA, as that makes our GT win look better, and GT will be above us in the Bowl pecking order anyway.

We want FSU to beat BC, UF and GT and get to the CFP, as that frees up a more marquee ACC bowl slot (potentially for us).

It'd be nice if either L'ville or ND lost their next two games. They play each other first, so does it matter who wins that one? Who's more likely to lose the 2d game -- ND to USC or L'ville to KY?

We want NCSU to beat UNC b/c it's UNC and also b/c UNC beat us.

Would be nice if Miami could be hung with another loss (Virginia and Pitt left, I think).

We want South Carolina to beat Clemson b/c of Spurrier and to push Clemson down below us in the pecking order possibly.

Maybe we root for UVA to beat VT, as that keeps Mike London around (long-term good for everybody in the Coastal save UVa), and would foreclose the possibility of a 7-5 VT being picked over a 9-3 Duke for Annapolis if Duke is looking at Annapolis if the we drop out of tier 1 -- and we could drop out of tier 1 if FSU drops out of the CFP, and so FSU & GT are taking the Russell and Orange, and ND/Clemson/L'ville/Clemson are all in tier 1.

I was under the impression that you could not pass over a team for someone else >= 2 games back? is this wrong?

[Reilly]

I was under the impression that you could not pass over a team for someone else >= 2 games back? is this wrong?

I believe your impression is wrong. That was the old rule.

This year, the 1-win rule only applies to ND -- that is, ND has to be within 1 win in order to leapfrog somebody. But for everybody else, it's the wild, wild West again.

[Reilly]

1. That VT loss was killer. We had a golden chance to bring home a trophy this year. Per www.cfbdatawarehouse.com, Duke has had 19 championship years in its history. Since we joined the ACC in 1953, we've had eight such years: 53, 54, 55, 60, 61, 62, 89, and 2013's Coastal. We could've had another this year! You know how baseball-reference has the graph at the bottom of the game boxscore that shows each team's probability of winning the game at that exact moment? When Duke's up 16-7 late in the third quarter against VT and we have the ball on the plus-side of the field, what were our odds of winning that game? 85%? 90-plus%? When Ross was lining up for a 40-yarder with 2 minutes and change, what were our odds of winning the game? 80%? Aaargh ....

2. I'm trying to get used to the idea of the Pinstripe Bowl and finding it hard. Been envisioning an SEC opponent in a Sunbelt city .... now we're looking (maybe best case scenario) at Iowa or Minnesota or something in Yankee Stadium.

Here's a photo:

http://web.pinstripebowl.com/yankee-stadium/stadium-a-to-z

Here's the seating map -- and you thought the Wallace Wade track puts you far from the action:

http://web.pinstripebowl.com/images/2013_seatingmap.pdf

And here's a fun story about Long Island versus South Jersey sod and making the dirt of a baseball field part of a football field:

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/30/sports/ncaafootball/yankees-call-up-some-tougher-sod-for-pinstripe-bowl.html?_r=0

[weezie]

Yikes, I'd take the Pinstripe any day over the other two. Plus I hear that the Irish bars in NYC are most welcoming :cool:

[weezie]

It is no longer possible for Duke to secure a bowl bid of any kind - they must now rely on the largesse of sleazy old men in shabby boardrooms.

But this is far more realistic, I agree. :(

[Bob Green]

With the loss to Carolina, I believe bowl game speculation should center on the Sun Bowl, Pinstripe Bowl and Belk Bowl. Here are today's games involving some potential bowl game opponents:

Sun Bowl (ACC vs Pac 12): Washington State (3-7) at Arizona State (8-2); Arizona (8-2) at Utah (7-3); Oregon State (5-5) at Washington (6-5)

Pinstripe Bowl (ACC vs Big Ten): Penn State (6-4) at Illinois (4-6); Maryland (6-4) at Michigan (5-5)

Belk Bowl (ACC vs SEC): Ole Miss (8-2) at Arkansas (5-5); Missouri (8-2) at Tennessee (5-5); Samford (7-3) at Auburn (7-3)

This list isn't intended to be all inclusive I am just trying to identify some potential opponents to facilitate conversation, while enjoying a Saturday of college football. My gut feeling is we are El Paso bound to face a Pac-12 team such as Arizona State or Utah.

[Olympic Fan]

With the loss to Carolina, I believe bowl game speculation should center on the Sun Bowl, Pinstripe Bowl and Belk Bowl. Here are today's games involving some potential bowl game opponents:

Sun Bowl (ACC vs Pac 12): Washington State (3-7) at Arizona State (8-2); Arizona (8-2) at Utah (7-3); Oregon State (5-5) at Washington (6-5)

Pinstripe Bowl (ACC vs Big Ten): Penn State (6-4) at Illinois (4-6); Maryland (6-4) at Michigan (5-5)

Belk Bowl (ACC vs SEC): Ole Miss (8-2) at Arkansas (5-5); Missouri (8-2) at Tennessee (5-5); Samford (7-3) at Auburn (7-3)

This list isn't intended to be all inclusive I am just trying to identify some potential opponents to facilitate conversation, while enjoying a Saturday of college football. My gut feeling is we are El Paso bound to face a Pac-12 team such as Arizona State or Utah.

Just one point about our bowl chances.

With a victory over Wake (not the lock it seemed to be two weeks ago), Duke would finish 9-3 which could very well be the second best record in the ACC. Right now 9-2 Georgia Tech has a chance to be better, but they still have to play Georgia and FSU. Everybody else has at least three losses.

Not saying that means anything, but it's still nice. I want a 10-3 finish -- which would be a better record than last year (despite the disappointment of the last two weeks).

As for our bowl destination. I think we're in the 4-7 mix -- the Music City/Taxslayer; Belk, Sun; or Pinstripe. These four bowls aren't in any pecking order according to the ACC -- they sit down together and pick their opponents. The Russell is still an outside possibility (if Notre Dame, Miami and Louisville stumble badly down the stretch), while with a loss to Wake, I could see us dropping to one of the lower bowls (Shreveport ... Annapolis .. Detroit ... St. Pete).

Obviously, if FSU loses and falls out of the playoffs, that hurts. So hold your nose ad pull for the 'Noles vs. BC, Florida and Ga Tech.

[Reilly]

If FSU loses to BC, we could be squeezed from both ends, with FSU dropping down and taking an ACC bowl, and BC vaulting ahead of us.

[YmoBeThere]

If FSU loses to BC, we could be squeezed from both ends, with FSU dropping down and taking an ACC bowl, and BC vaulting ahead of us.

I guess luckily that didn't happen. If we are in the Sun Bowl, I would likely make the drive out from San Antonio. They've upped the speed limits to 75 I think. But even with that, the local joke here in San Antonio is that it is still 8 hours to El Paso. (Because it is empty land, you were still doing 85 when the speed limits were lower.)

FWIW, both AZ and ASU won in the last 24 hours. I don't see them being likely matchups for us given better records and rankings.

[Reilly]

FSU 11-0

GT 9-2

Clemson 8-3
Louisville 8-3
DUKE 8-3

Notre Dame 7-4

Miami 6-5
BC 6-5

NCSU 6-5
UNC 6-5
---------------------------

VT 5-6
Pitt 5-6
UVa 5-6

----------------------------

Syr 3-8
WFU 3-8

- I'm thinking FSU stumbles, or the cmte keeps them out even if undefeated, and they grab an ACC bowl slot.
- Some might root for GT against UGA as it marginally makes Duke look better ... I like to see PJ consternated; and if GT loses, we can tie for second best overall record among ACC teams.
- Always rooting for Spurrier, have Clemson finish w/ worse record than us.
- Rooting for KY over L'ville for same reason.
- USC win over ND and Duke wins and ND cannot leapfrog us.
- Does Miami have any cachet? If they beat Pitt, would a bowl want them over Duke?
- BC may finish 7-5 and they were *this close* to 9-3 w/ wins over Clemson and FSU. Hopefully the Duke/Cut brand at 9-3 is more attractive than BC to anyone.
- State and Carolina fight for a 7th win. Carolina better not get a tier 1 bowl and we don't just b/c they beat us and our conf records are the same.
- Can Pitt beat Miami and get bowl eligible?
- One of VA/VT will be bowl eligible but neither should leapfrog us.
- ACC + ND will have at least 11 and maybe 12 bowl-eligible teams.

[Olympic Fan]

FSU 11-0

GT 9-2

Clemson 8-3
Louisville 8-3
DUKE 8-3

Notre Dame 7-4

Miami 6-5
BC 6-5

NCSU 6-5
UNC 6-5
---------------------------

VT 5-6
Pitt 5-6
UVa 5-6

----------------------------

Syr 3-8
WFU 3-8

- I'm thinking FSU stumbles, or the cmte keeps them out even if undefeated, and they grab an ACC bowl slot.
- Some might root for GT against UGA as it marginally makes Duke look better ... I like to see PJ consternated; and if GT loses, we can tie for second best overall record among ACC teams.
- Always rooting for Spurrier, have Clemson finish w/ worse record than us.
- Rooting for KY over L'ville for same reason.
- USC win over ND and Duke wins and ND cannot leapfrog us.
- Does Miami have any cachet? If they beat Pitt, would a bowl want them over Duke?
- BC may finish 7-5 and they were *this close* to 9-3 w/ wins over Clemson and FSU. Hopefully the Duke/Cut brand at 9-3 is more attractive than BC to anyone.
- State and Carolina fight for a 7th win. Carolina better not get a tier 1 bowl and we don't just b/c they beat us and our conf records are the same.
- Can Pitt beat Miami and get bowl eligible?
- One of VA/VT will be bowl eligible but neither should leapfrog us.
- ACC + ND will have at least 11 and maybe 12 bowl-eligible teams.

Disagree with your first observations.

If FSU loses to Florida or Ga Tech, they drop out of the top four, yes ... but not if they beat Florida and Georgia Tech. The committee is spouting a lot of BS, but they won't drop the only unbeaten power five team out of the top four ... especially since FSU has beaten more ranked teams (as of this moment) than any of the other candidates (at least that's what ESPN reported Saturday).**

I root for GTECH vs. Georgia not because it makes Duke look better but because it makes the ACC look better ... and we need that. Same for Clemson vs. South Carolina and FSU vs. Florida.

Not sure how much cachet Miami has any more -- it's been a long time since they were good. An 8-4 Miami might have been more attractive than a 9-3 Duke, but not a 7-5 Miami ...

Worth noting that the two smallest traveling fan bases in the ACC are BC and Miami -- even worse than Duke (which has been pretty good the last two bowl seasons).

As it stands, I've got FSU in the playoff and Georgia Tech in the Orange. Louisville beats Kentucky and they are in the Russell Athletic.

That leaves the Sun, Belk, Music City (or Taxslayer) and Pinstripe sitting down and dividing up the next four ACC teams. As I said before, those four bowls aren't in any particular order. They and the ACC decided who goes where. What are the next four ACC teams? Duke at 9-3 is in that mix along with a bunch of 7-5 teams -- Miami (if they beat Pitt), the UNC-NC State winner, probably Notre Dame (if they lose to Southern Cal ... if they beat Southern Cal, I think they get the Russell Bowl and Louisville drops into this mix).

I can't guess how they would shake down -- I would think that Notre Dame, even at 7-5 would be the prize. I know about the one-win rule, but these four bowls are ranked evenly by the ACC, so it's not like they would be picked ahead of 9-3 Duke. All it would mean is that Duke at 9-3 would have to go at this level -- Notre Dame couldn't be picked at this level if we get knocked down to the next echelon (Shreveport, Detroit, Annapolis).

Again, all bets are off if Duke loses to Wake Forest. Even at 8-4, Duke could fall pretty far ... but not at 9-3.


** About the committee. They have said time and again that their most important criteria are conference championships. That has not factored so far because we don't know the conference champs. But in the final ratings that will be huge. That's why it's unlikely an 11-1 Miss State finishes ahead of an 11-1 Baylor (or an 11-1 TCU ... whichever wins the Big 12) -- and certainly not ahead of an a 13-0 FSU. MSU's one chance is that Auburn upsets Bama and gets them in the SEC title game.

[Olympic Fan]

Oops, It's late and I totally blanked on Clemson.

Obviously they are in the mix for an upper echelon bowl. If they beat South Carolina, they might get the Orange over Georgia Tech.

But as far as Duke is concerned, that doesn't change anything -- 9-3 Duke is still in the Belk/Pinstripe/Sun/Music City mix; It merely knocks one of the 7-5 teams (probably the UNC-State winner) down a notch.

It does make it more likely that an 8-4 Duke could drop ...

[Bob Green]

I root for GTECH vs. Georgia not because it makes Duke look better but because it makes the ACC look better ... and we need that. Same for Clemson vs. South Carolina and FSU vs. Florida.



I agree wholeheartedly! The ACC has three match-ups with the SEC so this is a huge opportunity for the conference to shine.

[Reilly]

Let's see what the worst case scenario is:

FSU goes 11-2 or 12-1 and is out of the playoff.
GT is 11-2 and acc champs in Orange, or 9-4, or 10-3.
Clemson wins, 9-3.
L'ville wins, 9-3.
ND wins, 8-4.
Duke loses, 8-4.
Carolina wins, 7-5 (w/ same conf record as us, head-to-head win, and we just lost to woeful WFU).
Miami wins, 7-5.
VT throttles UVa on national tv on Friday night, 6-6.

1-2/Orange, Russell = FSU, GT in some order.
Tier 1 = Clemson, L'ville, ND ... and Carolina/Miami are in the hunt for the 4th bowl w/ us.

Go Duke. Go Southern Cal. Go State.

[Reilly]

Two other questions:

1. How are the other of the selection committee non-playoff bowls allocated (that is, the Peach, Cotton, Fiesta)? Is it per se that no other ACC team (or ND?) can go to those three b/c of the ACC team in the Orange?

2. What about the Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus bowl possibility for an ACC team (or ND)? That happens -- can happen? must happen? -- if the ACC's opponent in the Orange is a Big 10 team, right? How likely is that?

[budwom]

With their current QB situation, I see no way Clemmons beats South Carolina, for what that's worth.

Does Kevin White try to steer us towards an alumni friendly venue such as NYC (Pinstripe Bowl)?
Belk and Music City are also somewhat attractive, geographically...."Sun" Bowl is directly in the middle of nowhere.

[fuse]

With their current QB situation, I see no way Clemmons beats South Carolina, for what that's worth.

Does Kevin White try to steer us towards an alumni friendly venue such as NYC (Pinstripe Bowl)?
Belk and Music City are also somewhat attractive, geographically...."Sun" Bowl is directly in the middle of nowhere.

I still don't think Duke falls that far, for selfish reasons would love to see Duke in Annapolis for the Military bowl. I'm pretty sure DC has a decent alumni base.

[Reilly]

... The ACC has three match-ups with the SEC so this is a huge opportunity for the conference to shine.

Is it four: (1) FSU/UF; (2) GT/UGA; (3) Clemson/SoCar; (4) L'ville/KY?

I'd rather the ACC teams lose if it helps Duke even a smidge get a better bowl. FSU losing would not help Duke get a better bowl.

[Bob Green]

Is it four: (1) FSU/UF; (2) GT/UGA; (3) Clemson/SoCar; (4) L'ville/KY?

I'd rather the ACC teams lose if it helps Duke even a smidge get a better bowl. FSU losing would not help Duke get a better bowl.

Thanks, I overlooked the Louisville/Kentucky game.

Define better bowl. We are in the mix for Music City/Taxslayer, Sun, Belk and Pinstripe Bowls. Those are all even in bowl game hierarchy. I guess location comes into play. El Paso is a long ways from everywhere and the thought of playing in Yankee Stadium doesn't excite me so Nashville, Jacksonville or Charlotte are probably more desirable. My gut feeling is we are headed to El Paso if we beat Wake Forest.