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asbcheeks
11-23-2014, 10:27 AM
2. What about the Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus bowl possibility for an ACC team (or ND)? That happens -- can happen? must happen? -- if the ACC's opponent in the Orange is a Big 10 team, right? How likely is that?

Correct, ACC gets the B1G's Citrus slot if a B1G team lands in the Orange Bowl. With ND out of the picture, the ACC OB opponent will be either an SEC team or a B1G team. Have to assume a B1G champ, if it fails to make the CFP, would be selected over the highest ranked SEC team not to make the playoff, especially if that B1G champ is a 12-1 OSU. I think that needs to be included in our rooting interests when considering a best case scenario for Duke.

Root for (in order of importance):
- Duke to beat WFU.
- FSU to win out.
- ND to lose to USC (meaning they cannot be chosen for a higher bowl tier than Duke).
- Bama, Oregon, Miss St, TCU, Baylor and OSU all to win out, and for OSU to the Orange Bowl.
- GT, Louisville and Clemson to lose to SEC rivals (if we believe there's any chance of Duke being chosen ahead of one of them for a Florida Bowl - I'm not sure that's realistically in play anymore).
- BC and Miami to get upset at home by Cuse and Pitt, respectively, to fall to 6-6.
- Winners of UNC-NCSU and UVA-VPI to do so in ugly, unconvincing fashion (might prefer a UVA win in the latter game because VPI travels so well, allegedly).

My realistic best case scenario:

CFP: FSU
Orange: GT
Citrus: Louisville
Russell: Clemson

Music City / TaxSlayer: Duke (these are the two most fun locations and respectable bowls in this tier, IMO)
Pinstripe: ND
Sun: Miami
Belk: NCSU

The rest: UNC, UVA, BC, Pitt

Reilly
11-23-2014, 10:32 AM
Better bowl = one with more prestige. On TDD, someone was holding out hope for Duke to the Russell, given L'ville was there last year. Maybe that's still a longshot possibility if Clemson, L'ville, GT and ND all lose out and Duke wins -- so that would require sacrificing ACC prestige -- prestige that would come in the form of beating four SEC teams (let us go 1-3 against the SEC with the 1 being an FSU win). I don't care if we go 1-3 against the SEC if it helps Duke.

Basically, I put Duke's fortunes above the conference's if they are in conflict, and while we are still jockeying for position, I'm rooting for those we are jockeying with to lose.

I realize the Pinstripe NYC is in the same tier 1 with Nashville/Jax, Charlotte, and El Paso bowls. Do all four pay out the same? I'm guessing maybe they do if the ACC is letting them all be considered in the same tier. The latter three involve SEC opponents, so seem to have more "oomph". The latter three have a bit more history I think (a lot more for El Paso). The latter three are not in the northeast in December in a baseball stadium.

Yes, they are all on the same tier, but I'm guessing when those four bowls are slotted, we'll see that if you rank the four teams from the ACC who made it those four bowls, the team among those four who you believe is the best will not be in the Pinstripe.

arnie
11-23-2014, 11:13 AM
Better bowl = one with more prestige. On TDD, someone was holding out hope for Duke to the Russell, given L'ville was there last year. Maybe that's still a longshot possibility if Clemson, L'ville, GT and ND all lose out and Duke wins -- so that would require sacrificing ACC prestige -- prestige that would come in the form of beating four SEC teams (let us go 1-3 against the SEC with the 1 being an FSU win). I don't care if we go 1-3 against the SEC if it helps Duke.

Basically, I put Duke's fortunes above the conference's if they are in conflict, and while we are still jockeying for position, I'm rooting for those we are jockeying with to lose.

I realize the Pinstripe NYC is in the same tier 1 with Nashville/Jax, Charlotte, and El Paso bowls. Do all four pay out the same? I'm guessing maybe they do if the ACC is letting them all be considered in the same tier. The latter three involve SEC opponents, so seem to have more "oomph". The latter three have a bit more history I think (a lot more for El Paso). The latter three are not in the northeast in December in a baseball stadium.

Yes, they are all on the same tier, but I'm guessing when those four bowls are slotted, we'll see that if you rank the four teams from the ACC who made it those four bowls, the team among those four who you believe is the best will not be in the Pinstripe.

I'm in the minority here, but now that we're not going to an upper level bowl, I'd rather see us against the weakest opponent possible. Haven't won a bowl game in 50+ years and like to end that famine. Lets go beat an AAC or lower level Big? team.

OldPhiKap
11-23-2014, 11:45 AM
I would like to get to the best bowl possible. I would like to avoid an SEC team.

budwom
11-23-2014, 12:07 PM
I'm in the minority here, but now that we're not going to an upper level bowl, I'd rather see us against the weakest opponent possible. Haven't won a bowl game in 50+ years and like to end that famine. Lets go beat an AAC or lower level Big? team.

Yes, this all leads to a philosophical question of whether it's better to go to a (somewhat) more prestigious bowl, and lose, rather than a lesser bowl (and win).
Since all the conference revenue is pooled, that doesn't matter. So I could go either way on this....on one hand, we can say we got a
more prestigious bowl....on the other, I imagine Cut might think going 10-3 with a lesser bowl win beats 9-4 with a better bowl loss.

Six months from now, people (i.e. recruits) are much more apt to know our record than the level of bowl we went to....

Potato Head
11-23-2014, 12:21 PM
I think we over-think what recruits probably think about when they decide to go somewhere. I'm not sure they care about one win or which mid-level bowl we end up playing in. I think they care that we have been a good team for the past two seasons, that we don't have a charlatan head coach, and that they're going to have to perform in the classroom as well as on the field (this last one is probably a dealbreaker for a lot of kids).

Bob Green
11-23-2014, 12:36 PM
...and that they're going to have to perform in the classroom as well as on the field (this last one is probably a dealbreaker for a lot of kids).

There is an Insiders article on ESPN college football page titled, Recruiting: UNC on the Rise. I can't read the article because do not have insider access but it amazes me Carolina continues to successfully recruit in the middle of the ongoing scandal. There are a lot of football players out there who do not care about the classroom.

peloton
11-23-2014, 01:27 PM
Haven't won a bowl game in 50+ years and like to end that famine. Lets go beat an AAC or lower level Big? team.

I am totally with you here. It goes without saying that winning a bowl game...pretty much any bowl game, would do a lot in regard to the perception of the program I believe. We've made great strides in being more competitive on the field (although Thursday night wasn't evidence of that) in regard to wins/losses. Now that we've taken that critical step, how great would it be to get our first bowl win since 1961, when we lost by 1 point to the Arkansas Razorbacks?

Bob Green
11-23-2014, 01:55 PM
...how great would it be to get our first bowl win since 1961, when we lost by 1 point to the Arkansas Razorbacks?

We won 7-6. I was two years old so I can't remember the details. :p

peloton
11-23-2014, 02:30 PM
We won 7-6. :p

You are of course correct, sir! Pardon my senior moment Bob, and that's what I get for not proofreading my post. Jeez...getting old is no fun sometimes.

arnie
11-23-2014, 02:33 PM
We won 7-6. I was two years old so I can't remember the details. :p
Right! And my grandparents weren't born by then either.

Reilly
11-23-2014, 02:58 PM
I would like to get to the best bowl possible. I would like to avoid an SEC team.

Upthread I made a mistake when I wrote that the non-Pinstripe tier 1 bowls all involve SEC opponents. El Paso is what -- a Pac 12 opponent? Still better than Pinstripe and Big 10 for me.

Per Sagarin predictor, Duke would be "only" a 2 point (South Carolina), 5 point (Tenn), 6 point (TXA&M; Mizzou) or 7 point point (Florida) underdog against certain SEC teams. I wonder where the Belk/Gator/Nashville fall in the SEC bowl pecking order.

And to quote Cut, better to live in your hopes than live in your fears (and no, "I hope we don't get killed" doesn't count as a hope).

sagegrouse
11-23-2014, 03:19 PM
We won 7-6. I was two years old so I can't remember the details. :p

College and pro HOFer Lance Alworth returned a punt for a TD in the first half to give Arkansas a 6-0 lead. Don Altman threw a TD pass to Claude "Tee" Moorman that resulted in a 7-6 Duke lead. At the end of the game, Duke was inside the Arkansas five-yard-line, but made no effort to score, giving the ball to FB Jerry McGee (Mike's brother) several times in a row.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
11-23-2014, 03:21 PM
College and pro HOFer Lance Alworth returned a punt for a TD in the first half to give Arkansas a 6-0 lead. Don Altman threw a TD pass to Claude "Tee" Moorman that resulted in a 7-6 Duke lead. At the end of the game, Duke was inside the Arkansas five-yard-line, but made no effort to score, giving the ball to FB Jerry McGee (Mike's brother) several times in a row.

My rabid Tarheel neighbor's stepdad is Don Altman. Met him a few times, nice guy. Knees are shot though.

He has stories, I tell you what.

BigWayne
11-24-2014, 12:48 AM
Upthread I made a mistake when I wrote that the non-Pinstripe tier 1 bowls all involve SEC opponents. El Paso is what -- a Pac 12 opponent? Still better than Pinstripe and Big 10 for me.

Per Sagarin predictor, Duke would be "only" a 2 point (South Carolina), 5 point (Tenn), 6 point (TXA&M; Mizzou) or 7 point point (Florida) underdog against certain SEC teams. I wonder where the Belk/Gator/Nashville fall in the SEC bowl pecking order.

And to quote Cut, better to live in your hopes than live in your fears (and no, "I hope we don't get killed" doesn't count as a hope).

SEC has the Citrus Bowl (now sponsored by Buffalo Wild Wings, formerly Capital One Bowl) first after the playoff/Sugar Bowl slots.
Then they have the next six slots in a pool like we have the 4 bowls. Then they have the Birmingham and Independence Bowls in a mini pool as the last two bowls. So for most of the ACC/SEC matchups, there is no set order.

Reilly
11-24-2014, 05:29 AM
Suppose FSU beats Florida, then loses to GT in the ACC championship game. That knocks FSU out of the 4-team playoff seemingly, and knocks them out of the Orange (GT lands there).

Between the Cotton, Fiesta, and Peach, there will be 4 or 5 at-large selections (1 of the 6 slots to the Group of Five best team; maybe 1 of the other 6 slots to the Big 10 champ if the Big 10 champ's not in the 4-team playoff).

If I'm reading this right, the bottom line is that, in theory, it's possible that (1) FSU stumbles and does not make the 4-team playoff; and that (2) FSU does not grab one of the ACC tie-in bowls b/c FSU grabs a "New Year's Six" slot.

********************

The criteria I was reading: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/College_Football_Playoff

In years when the bowls are not part of the playoff bracket, the highest-ranked non-playoff teams from the following conferences or groups will be selected as follows:

Rose Bowl — Big Ten #1 vs. Pac-12 #1
Sugar Bowl — SEC #1 vs. Big 12 #1
Orange Bowl — ACC #1 vs. SEC #2, Big Ten #2, or Notre Dame
Cotton Bowl — at-large or "Group of Five" (committee selection)
Fiesta Bowl — at-large or "Group of Five" (committee selection)
Peach Bowl — at-large or "Group of Five" (committee selection)
Additional selection criteria
The highest-ranked champion from the "Group of Five" mid-major conferences (American Athletic Conference, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, and Sun Belt) is guaranteed a berth if the group's top team is not in the playoff.[53]
The remaining five at-large bids will be determined by committee rankings.[53]
If the Big Ten or SEC champion is available for a non-playoff bowl in a year when the Rose and Sugar Bowls are hosting semifinals, that team will appear in either the Cotton Bowl, Fiesta Bowl, or Peach Bowl, but not the Orange Bowl.[53]
In the Orange Bowl, the SEC and Big Ten are guaranteed at least three appearances during the eight non-playoff years, while Notre Dame can only appear a maximum of twice.[54]
In non-playoff years, if the Orange Bowl matchup creates a regular-season rematch for the ACC representative, the bowl may choose to "skip over" the prescribed opponent from the SEC/Big Ten/Notre Dame group and select the next highest-ranked team from the group. The team that was rejected would be placed in one of the three at-large bowls, if it meets ranking standards.[55]
In years when the Orange Bowl is a national semifinal, the ACC champion will play in the Fiesta or Peach bowls if it is not selected for the playoff.[56]
In choosing the pairings for the four non-playoff bowls, the committee will try to create "the most compelling matchups possible", while taking into account geography and team rematches from both the regular season and recent bowls.[57]

BigWayne
11-24-2014, 12:29 PM
Could FSU play in the Cotton, Fiesta, or Peach this year?

Yes, if FSU loses to GT, it is very possible. Of the 12 slots in the New Year's Six bowls, only 6 are guaranteed - The power 5 Conference Champs and the top conf. champ of the other 5 conferences.

The other 6 slots are at large and should be closely matching the top 10 CFP rankings as one or two of those 6 teams will likely be below the top 12.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
11-25-2014, 12:30 PM
Interesting piece on FSU's dominance (http://noledout.com/football/fsus-domination-of-acc-nothing-to-scoff-at.html) of the ACC

From the article:

Losses to #ACC teams over the last three years:
#FSU 1
#Florida 2
#Auburn 2
#OhioState 2
#USC 2
#NotreDame 3

Bob Green
11-25-2014, 07:16 PM
ESPN has their updated projections posted:

http://espn.go.com/college-football/bowls/projections

Prognosticator #1: Duke vs Tennessee in the Music City Bowl. This could be very good for creating a recruiting bump as Coach Cutcliffe has a strong foundation in the Volunteer State.

Prognosticator #2: Duke vs Florida in the Belk Bowl. A return to talent rich Charlotte would be a good thing.

I'm still feeling the Sun Bowl against a Pac-12 team such as USC, Utah or Washington. My rationale is the ACC has to send a team to El Paso (middle of nowhere) and with our late season slump it might be our turn in the barrel. I've no problem with the Sun Bowl as I am ecstatic we are bowl eligible for the third consecutive season.

devildeac
11-25-2014, 07:22 PM
ESPN has their updated projections posted:

http://espn.go.com/college-football/bowls/projections

Prognosticator #1: Duke vs Tennessee in the Music City Bowl. This could be very good for creating a recruiting bump as Coach Cutcliffe has a strong foundation in the Volunteer State.

Prognosticator #2: Duke vs Florida in the Belk Bowl. A return to talent rich Charlotte would be a good thing.

I'm still feeling the Sun Bowl against a Pac-12 team such as USC, Utah or Washington. My rationale is the ACC has to send a team to El Paso (middle of nowhere) and with our late season slump it might be our turn in the barrel. I've no problem with the Sun Bowl as I am ecstatic we are bowl eligible for the third consecutive season.

Hmmm, that Duke vs UF match-up sounds interesting, especially with our old OC on the Gators' sideline.

OldPhiKap
11-25-2014, 07:30 PM
ESPN has their updated projections posted:

http://espn.go.com/college-football/bowls/projections

Prognosticator #1: Duke vs Tennessee in the Music City Bowl. This could be very good for creating a recruiting bump as Coach Cutcliffe has a strong foundation in the Volunteer State.

Prognosticator #2: Duke vs Florida in the Belk Bowl. A return to talent rich Charlotte would be a good thing.

I'm still feeling the Sun Bowl against a Pac-12 team such as USC, Utah or Washington. My rationale is the ACC has to send a team to El Paso (middle of nowhere) and with our late season slump it might be our turn in the barrel. I've no problem with the Sun Bowl as I am ecstatic we are bowl eligible for the third consecutive season.


Hmmm, that Duke vs UF match-up sounds interesting, especially with our old OC on the Gators' sideline.

Prognosticator #2 has GT beating FSU and playing in the Orange, with FSU in the Russell. So take a big grain of salt (and a diuretic if you have high bp)

ACC blog prediction on ESPN is us in the Pinstripe, the one bowl I can't make (but there would be a good NYC metro turnout)

Reilly
11-25-2014, 07:35 PM
... the Pinstripe, the one bowl I can't make ...

If you can make it there, you can make it anywhere.

I don't think I want to know what you did to not be allowed back in NYC.

OldPhiKap
11-25-2014, 07:50 PM
If you can make it there, you can make it anywhere.

I don't think I want to know what you did to not be allowed back in NYC.

Until the statute of limitations runs, I ain't saying either.

Reilly
11-26-2014, 04:57 AM
In the first PB game ever -- way back in 2010 -- the K-State QB got a killer Chris Combs-like unsportsmanlike penalty that made tying the game more difficult.

http://web.pinstripebowl.com/news/article/2014011666764900/news/

The flag on Combs at UVa was ridiculous, and this one sounds similar.

Reilly
11-28-2014, 10:57 PM
FSU 11-0

GT 9-2

Clemson 8-3
Louisville 8-3
DUKE 8-3

Notre Dame 7-4

Miami 6-5
BC 6-5

NCSU 6-5
UNC 6-5

VT 6-6
---------------------------

Pitt 5-6

----------------------------

UVa 5-7

Syr 3-8
WFU 3-8

- Currently 11 ACC + ND teams bowl-eligible. Could be 12 w/ Pitt win.
- ACC has 10 bowl slots; could be 11-13 with Citrus Bowl or Birmingham, or, for FSU, CFP or NY6 bowl.
- Go UGA Dawgs -- set Duke up to have the 2d best record in the ACC.
- Go Spurrier and South Carolina, have Clemson finish w/ worse record than us.
- Go KY over L'ville for same reason.
- Go USC -- win over ND, prevent them from leapfrogging us if we beat WFU.
- Go PItt, keep Miami down.
- Go State.
- Go Duke.

Reilly
11-29-2014, 12:23 AM
My wish list (not considering Citrus):

1. Orlando (Russell)- Mon Dec 29 at 5:30 pm - Big 12

2. Jax (Gator) - Fri Jan 2 at 3:20 pm - SEC
or
Nashville (Music City) - Wed Dec 30 at 3:00 pm - SEC

3. Charlotte - Tues Dec 30 at 6:45 pm - SEC

4. Sun - Sat Dec 27 at 2:00 pm - Pac-12

5. NYC - Sat Dec 27 at 4:30 pm - Big 10

It's a little nuts there is no more internal ACC 1-win rule or some other type divider. Duke could be jumped by Miami, UNC ....

BigWayne
11-29-2014, 02:44 AM
- Currently 11 ACC + ND teams bowl-eligible. Could be 12 w/ Pitt win.
- ACC has 10 bowl slots; could be 11-13 with Citrus Bowl or Birmingham, or, for FSU, CFP or NY6 bowl.


The P5 conferences control, by my count, 49 bowl slots overall. There are currently 46 P5+ND teams bowl eligible.
Up to 53 can still be eligible. The "other 5" conferences all have at least as many eligible teams as they have contracted slots.
There could be as many as 12 bowl eligible teams that can't find a bowl.

Of the 7 P5 teams that can still become eligible, 3 are unlikely to do so (Mich, Ok St, Ore. St.). If the other 4 get in (Pitt, Tenn, KY, Cal), then we are looking at 50 P5 teams for 49 spots. The 50th team, which will not be a very impressive one, would have to get a bowl to break a contract with one of the lower conferences to get a slot. So it's possible an ACC 6-6 team could get left at home.

devildeac
11-29-2014, 06:14 AM
The P5 conferences control, by my count, 49 bowl slots overall. There are currently 46 P5+ND teams bowl eligible.
Up to 53 can still be eligible. The "other 5" conferences all have at least as many eligible teams as they have contracted slots.
There could be as many as 12 bowl eligible teams that can't find a bowl.

Of the 7 P5 teams that can still become eligible, 3 are unlikely to do so (Mich, Ok St, Ore. St.). If the other 4 get in (Pitt, Tenn, KY, Cal), then we are looking at 50 P5 teams for 49 spots. The 50th team, which will not be a very impressive one, would have to get a bowl to break a contract with one of the lower conferences to get a slot. So it's possible an ACC 6-6 team could get left at home.


IOW, Go Pack.

Reilly
11-29-2014, 06:26 AM
Per this list: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014–15_NCAA_football_bowl_games

I think I also count 49 slots ... would the Lockheed Martin at large be a 50th slot?

Ther appears to be 46 P5 + ND already eligible ... but the list at the bottom shows 9 possible other P5s ... not sure if accurate.

Reilly
11-29-2014, 02:57 PM
FSU 11-0

GT 10-2

Clemson 9-3
Louisville 9-3

DUKE 8-3

Notre Dame 7-4

BC 7-5
NCSU 7-5

Miami 6-5

VT 6-6
UNC 6-6

---------------------------

Pitt 5-6

----------------------------

UVa 5-7

WFU 3-8

Syr 3-9

Reilly
11-29-2014, 07:15 PM
FSU 12-0

GT 10-2

Clemson 9-3
Louisville 9-3

DUKE 8-3

Notre Dame 7-5
BC 7-5
NCSU 7-5

Miami 6-5

VT 6-6
UNC 6-6

---------------------------

Pitt 5-6

----------------------------

UVa 5-7

WFU 3-8

Syr 3-9

Reilly
11-29-2014, 09:30 PM
FSU 12-0

GT 10-2

Clemson 9-3
Louisville 9-3
DUKE 9-3

Notre Dame 7-5
BC 7-5
NCSU 7-5

Miami 6-6
VT 6-6
UNC 6-6
Pitt 6-6

----------------------------

UVa 5-7

Syr 3-9
WFU 3-9

Olympic Fan
11-30-2014, 12:33 AM
So let's try to break down those records into bowls.

One ACC game left, next week in Charlotte. U'm going to assume FSU beats Georgia Tech.

That puts FSU in the playoffs.

I think Georgia Tech would still get the Orange, but I also think it's clear that the Orange and the Russell Athletic would take Georgia Tech and Clemson in some order.

Of the Big Ten supplies the ACC opponent in the Orange Bowl (which is possible with Ohio State likely out of the playoff), then 9-3 Louisville would be the prime candidate for the Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus.

If that doesn't happen, then 9-3 Louisville joins 9-3 Duke and 7-5 Notre Dame (always more attractive to the bowls than their record) for the four-bowl tier that's next on the ACC lineup -- Sun, Belk, Pinstripe and Music City (or Taxslayer). The one-win rule means that if Notre Dame is on this tier, then Duke HAS to be on this tier (or better). There is not chance by rule where Notre Dame could get one of these four spots and Duke drop to the next tier. The one-win rule ONLY applies to Notre Dame.

I can't guess at the order they would be picked and it's hard to guess which 7-5 team would be the fourth team on that tier -- probably Boston College, unless the Belk Bowl decides they want NC State and their large fan base. If Louisville gets the Citrus, the I assume all three 7-5 teams join Duke on this tier.

That leaves bunch of 6-6 teams scrambling for the Tier Two Bowls -- the Military Bowl (Annapolis), the Duck Bowl (Shreveport) and the Quick Lane Bowl (Detroit).

Heard a commentator say that he expects to see Maryland vs. UNC in Detroit. Don't know if he had any inside info or was just speculating.

The ACC has conditional spots in the Bitcom Bowl (St. Pete) and the Birmingham Bowl. The league may need them to take care of all their 6-6 teams. It's been more than a decade since the ACC failed to get an eligible team (and one not on probation) in a bowl The league may have to use its clout to accomplish that.

Put a gun to my head and I'm guessing Duke is in the Music City Bowl, Dec. 30 against an SEC team.

But that's just a guess.

-bdbd
11-30-2014, 12:41 AM
Bowl Predictions:

I’m thinking that the odds are for FSU to make the Final-4 playoffs, and GT to then get the Orange. Expect 9-3 Clemson to get the Russell, but then anything is possible. As we know, the ACC (Swofford) has a big say in who goes where next (no longer just the bowls picking in a pre-set pecking order). After the Russell Bowl, I believe there is a group of four bowls that are the next level: Belk, Sun, Music City/Gator (a.k.a. “Taxslayer” in Jax), and Pinstripe. [Note: the ACC will send one team to the combo of Music City (Nashville) and Taxslayer Bowls.] Duke will almost certainly go to one in that grouping. I expect State College to be sought by Belk in CLT, so that leaves four teams vying for the three “upper tier” slots left -- L’ville (9-3), Duke (9-3), Notre Dame (7-5) and BC (7-5) in the mix, with BC almost certainly the odd man out. Question: does 7-5 ND or 9-3 L’ville go before us???

I can literally see scenarios for Duke going to any of those four "next tier" bowls - Belk, Sun, Music City/Gator (a.k.a. "Tax Slayer") or Pinstripe. I'd be thrilled with any of Russell, Gator, Music City. Belk is OK, but "we've been there recently." Sun would be interesting, but I suspect few of us would/could travel that far. Pinstripe would be "different," but way too cold, with poor seating, and I have this lingering concern about someone deciding that it'd be just too tempting to match up MD against someone from their former conference.... (either that or nearby Rutgers, ugh!).

I'm thinking it is very close odds right now between Music City/Tax Slayer, or Belk or Pinstripe.
Call it 25% for Belk, and ~37% for Music City/Tax Slayer, and then maybe give the leftover 33% to Pinstripe.... and maybe 5% to "other" (Citrus, Russell, etc). ;)

Please let it be in Florida... please, please, please...

BigWayne
11-30-2014, 01:34 AM
Per this list: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014–15_NCAA_football_bowl_games

I think I also count 49 slots ... would the Lockheed Martin at large be a 50th slot?

Ther appears to be 46 P5 + ND already eligible ... but the list at the bottom shows 9 possible other P5s ... not sure if accurate.

The list of teams that could be eligible when you were looking included Illinois & NW. Only one of them could and that was in the list above.

Anyway, out of the 7 possibles, only Pitt and Tenn succeeded. OK St. still has a small chance, which would make the 49th team. LM Armed Forces Bowl is already in the list of 49 as a Big 12 slot. Unless Ok St. gets eligible, the B12 Armed Forces slot will probably go unfilled and could be a home for an ACC team. If TCU and Baylor both win next week, then the Cactus Bowl likely opens up.

If Wisconsin beats Ohio St, then the B10 could get 3 teams in the NY6 bowls and the Heart of Dallas bowl could open up. Otherwise, the B10 will use all its slots.

P12 will probably use all its slots exactly.

The SEC will probably have a team that needs a spot.

The most likely scenario right now is that the Cactus Bowl and Armed Forces Bowl need teams and pick up the last SEC and ACC teams. Another slot will be open assuming Ok St loses, but it's hard to predict where as it is all dependent on which teams get put into the NY6 bowls.

BigWayne
11-30-2014, 01:56 AM
Of the Big Ten supplies the ACC opponent in the Orange Bowl (which is possible with Ohio State likely out of the playoff), then 9-3 Louisville would be the prime candidate for the Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus.


Actually, there is an exclusion rule such that a SEC or B10 champion that does not make the playoff can't be in the Orange Bowl.

BigWayne
11-30-2014, 02:19 AM
GT is going to the Orange Bowl, win or lose.
FSU is either going to the CFP if they win next week, or going to one of the Cotton/Peach/Fiesta.
Russell is between Louisville or Clemson, depending on what the ACC and the Russell folks think about Deshaun's knee.

That puts Duke in the 4 bowl mix with another 9-3 team and then whichever two teams the league and bowls want, most likely ND and State.
My guess is Louisville to the Music City, ND to the Pinstripe, State to the Belk, and Duke to the Sun Bowl.

Then I think BC goes to the Military in Annapolis.
The Independence and Quick Lane are a crap shoot between Pitt, UNC, VT, with the odd man out maybe going to the Armed Forces Bowl in Ft Worth. Bitcoin gets Miami most likely.

OldPhiKap
11-30-2014, 03:05 AM
So let's try to break down those records into bowls.

One ACC game left, next week in Charlotte. U'm going to assume FSU beats Georgia Tech.

That puts FSU in the playoffs.

I think Georgia Tech would still get the Orange, but I also think it's clear that the Orange and the Russell Athletic would take Georgia Tech and Clemson in some order.

Of the Big Ten supplies the ACC opponent in the Orange Bowl (which is possible with Ohio State likely out of the playoff), then 9-3 Louisville would be the prime candidate for the Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus.

If that doesn't happen, then 9-3 Louisville joins 9-3 Duke and 7-5 Notre Dame (always more attractive to the bowls than their record) for the four-bowl tier that's next on the ACC lineup -- Sun, Belk, Pinstripe and Music City (or Taxslayer). The one-win rule means that if Notre Dame is on this tier, then Duke HAS to be on this tier (or better). There is not chance by rule where Notre Dame could get one of these four spots and Duke drop to the next tier. The one-win rule ONLY applies to Notre Dame.

I can't guess at the order they would be picked and it's hard to guess which 7-5 team would be the fourth team on that tier -- probably Boston College, unless the Belk Bowl decides they want NC State and their large fan base. If Louisville gets the Citrus, the I assume all three 7-5 teams join Duke on this tier.

That leaves bunch of 6-6 teams scrambling for the Tier Two Bowls -- the Military Bowl (Annapolis), the Duck Bowl (Shreveport) and the Quick Lane Bowl (Detroit).

Heard a commentator say that he expects to see Maryland vs. UNC in Detroit. Don't know if he had any inside info or was just speculating.

The ACC has conditional spots in the Bitcom Bowl (St. Pete) and the Birmingham Bowl. The league may need them to take care of all their 6-6 teams. It's been more than a decade since the ACC failed to get an eligible team (and one not on probation) in a bowl The league may have to use its clout to accomplish that.

Put a gun to my head and I'm guessing Duke is in the Music City Bowl, Dec. 30 against an SEC team.

But that's just a guess.

Heh. Maybe there is justice in this world after all.

Bob Green
11-30-2014, 05:59 AM
My guess is Louisville to the Music City, ND to the Pinstripe, State to the Belk, and Duke to the Sun Bowl.

Bingo! I agree with BigWayne, Duke will be headed to the Sun Bowl.

OldPhiKap
11-30-2014, 06:58 AM
Bingo! I agree with BigWayne, Duke will be headed to the Sun Bowl.

As I told devildeac, the best thing about El Paso is that it can get a jam-up tat in Juarez.

All kidding aside, I will go to the Sun Bowl before the Pinstripe. If I have to fly somewhere, it's gonna be to someplace with a chance of warmth.

Reilly
11-30-2014, 07:17 AM
...

The ACC has conditional spots in the Bitcom Bowl (St. Pete) ...

The ACC FB media guide says the Bitcoin slot is the ACC's this year (and 2016) and conditional in other years.


GT is going to the Orange Bowl, win or lose.
FSU is either going to the CFP if they win next week, or going to one of the Cotton/Peach/Fiesta ...

That puts Duke in the 4 bowl mix with another 9-3 team and then whichever two teams the league and bowls want, most likely ND and State.
My guess is Louisville to the Music City, ND to the Pinstripe, State to the Belk, and Duke to the Sun Bowl.
...

Important point about FSU -- feel free to root against them.

I'd love to know the clout of the various bowls that are on the same tier. Do they all pay the same to the ACC? I'm guessing yes since they get to be considered equal. The Belk seems to be moving up in the world -- so would they want a L'ville (rather than NCSU) against an SEC team. I'm hoping they would and would fight for L'ville, which then leaves Duke as the most attractive record-wise and clears a path for Duke to Nashville.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
11-30-2014, 07:23 AM
Question- I assume all the bowl invites will go out quickly after the playoff is determined, from top down. Is that accurate?

budwom
11-30-2014, 08:34 AM
I'm going to guess, based on nothing, that Kevin White and Cutcliffe will maneuver us into the Pinstripe Bowl vs Penn State (a winnable game).
I think discussions of which bowls are more or less prestigious in our current situation, e.g. Sun, Music City, Belk, are overrated.

Pinstripe would be a good fit, lots of alums, big name but beatable opponent. I guess we'll see...

Reilly
11-30-2014, 08:43 AM
... Heard a commentator say that he expects to see Maryland vs. UNC in Detroit ...


Heh. Maybe there is justice in this world after all.

"Justice? -- You get justice in the next world. In this one you have the [FBS bowl selection process]." - William Gaddis

Reilly
11-30-2014, 08:56 AM
I'm going to guess, based on nothing, that Kevin White and Cutcliffe will maneuver us into the Pinstripe Bowl vs Penn State (a winnable game).
I think discussions of which bowls are more or less prestigious in our current situation, e.g. Sun, Music City, Belk, are overrated.

Pinstripe would be a good fit, lots of alums, big name but beatable opponent. I guess we'll see...

I think there are eight Big 10 teams with an overall record better than Penn State's 6-6. Would Penn State end up in the Pinstripe?

I guess it depends on what you mean by prestige.

On one hand, all of our reasonable possibilities are on the same tier, so the same prestige.

On the other hand, Saturday Dec 27 is a crowded day on the bowl calendar, so if Duke could be the only game on TV at some other time (that is, Duke lands in Nashville or Belk) that might mean more prestige in the sense of TV viewership ... and some bowls have history (an east-west matchup with the Pac 12 in the historic Sun would be neater than the Pinstripe).

The only benefit I can see to the Pinstripe over the others is that given its 4:30 pm Saturday start time, it would be reasonably easy for Duke alums from Boston to Washington DC to hop on Amtrak and make it to the game (and home again, I guess) w/out a night in a hotel, or missing a workday.

Reilly
11-30-2014, 09:18 AM
El Paso 56 avg high/31.5 avg low
View on www.usclimatedata.com

NYC avg high 42, avg low 30
Weather Facts New York City.com
View on www.nyc.com

Charlotte avg high 50, avg low 29
View on www.usclimatedata.com

Nashville avg high 47, low 29
http://www.usclimatedata.com/climate/nashville/tennessee/united-states/ustn0357

Jacksonville avg high 64, low 39
http://www.usclimatedata.com/climate/jacksonville/florida/united-states/usfl0663

Reilly
11-30-2014, 11:53 AM
Joe Giglio says the tier 1 bowls will draw for ND ...

https://twitter.com/jwgiglio

devildeac
11-30-2014, 12:00 PM
As I told devildeac, the best thing about El Paso is that it can get a jam-up tat in Juarez.

All kidding aside, I will go to the Sun Bowl before the Pinstripe. If I have to fly somewhere, it's gonna be to someplace with a chance of warmth.

"Jam-up" is not quite the word you used but we'll keep it family friendly here and our little secret;):o. You also mentioned something about tequila...

Bob Green
11-30-2014, 12:13 PM
I think there are eight Big 10 teams with an overall record better than Penn State's 6-6. Would Penn State end up in the Pinstripe?

That is my question as well. I have no problem with Duke in the Pinstripe Bowl but I have a hard time seeing Penn State as the opponent.

Reilly
11-30-2014, 06:14 PM
Duke/Utah in the Sun.

http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2014/11/30/7308625/bowl-projections-2014-college-football-playoff-tcu

Native
11-30-2014, 06:32 PM
Please not El Paso. Please not El Paso. Please not El Paso.

Fan turnout is most important for me. Don't care about the temperature. A Duke/PSU matchup would sell out the Pinstripe in about five seconds.

AncientPsychicT
11-30-2014, 06:46 PM
Please not El Paso. Please not El Paso. Please not El Paso.

Fan turnout is most important for me. Don't care about the temperature. A Duke/PSU matchup would sell out the Pinstripe in about five seconds.

Yeah, but an ND/PSU matchup would sell it out in about two seconds.

In all likelihood, the teams for the Sun/Belk/Pinstripe/Music City tier will be Duke, Louisville, Notre Dame, and NC State. The most obvious bids are NC State to the Belk and Notre Dame to the Pinstripe, as each school has very large fanbases in the respective bowls' locations, ensuring both bowls will be well attended. That leaves Duke and Louisville for the Sun and Music City. The school/bowl combination that (from the bowls' perspective) would produce the largest turnout would be Louisville to the Music City. That leaves us with the Sun Bowl. Yay El Paso!

Like it or not, we're going to El Paso.

Reilly
11-30-2014, 06:46 PM
... performing at the fan fiesta the night before the Sun Bowl:

http://www.sunbowl.org/events/fan_fiesta

Native
11-30-2014, 07:04 PM
Yeah, but an ND/PSU matchup would sell it out in about two seconds.

...Notre Dame to the Pinstripe, as each school has very large fanbases in the respective bowls' locations, ensuring both bowls will be well attended.

Joe Giglio reports that the Tier 1 bowls will draw for Notre Dame (https://twitter.com/jwgiglio/status/539068844107923456), meaning that ND to the Pinstripe isn't a sure bet. Also, Notre Dame did play in the Pinstripe last year...

YmoBeThere
11-30-2014, 07:34 PM
How well does ND's fanbase travel for a 7-5 team? I'm not sure if y'all noticed but while not horrendous, they've lost 5 of their last 6 games.

uh_no
11-30-2014, 07:47 PM
How well does ND's fanbase travel for a 7-5 team? I'm not sure if y'all noticed but while not horrendous, they've lost 5 of their last 6 games.

ND's fanbase doesn't need to travel. ND's fanbase is already everywhere.....there's a reason NBC still pays big money to cover them nationally.

OldPhiKap
11-30-2014, 07:54 PM
ND's fanbase doesn't need to travel. ND's fanbase is already everywhere.....there's a reason NBC still pays big money to cover them nationally.

When I was a kid, the first college game. I went to was ND-Navy at the then-new Giants Stadium and it was an absolute sell-out for the 65,000 or so seats it held. And not because of Navy.

As an Irish Catholic who grew up in the tri-state area, I can tell you -- although Duke has a lot of fans and alums in the area, ND dwarfs us.

blazindw
11-30-2014, 09:07 PM
Heh. Maybe there is justice in this world after all.

I hope this wasn't a crack at my beloved hometown and I will kindly say that, if it was, it was very unnecessary.

As for bowls, I was thinking that the Belk would want us and South Carolina as the story line with the Head Ball Coach facing us and with each school's fanbase very close would make for a great matchup. However, I forgot that NC State would be thrown into the mix. I'm really hoping we don't end up in El Paso because I want all our fans to be able to make it. That seems to be the one that most people can't swing. If the word about the bowls drawing for ND, that would be great...everyone just hope that the Sun Bowl wins that draw (which would help their gate as well) and that would probably leave us with a date in the Bronx.

OldPhiKap
11-30-2014, 09:24 PM
I hope this wasn't a crack at my beloved hometown and I will kindly say that, if it was, it was very unnecessary.

As for bowls, I was thinking that the Belk would want us and South Carolina as the story line with the Head Ball Coach facing us and with each school's fanbase very close would make for a great matchup. However, I forgot that NC State would be thrown into the mix. I'm really hoping we don't end up in El Paso because I want all our fans to be able to make it. That seems to be the one that most people can't swing. If the word about the bowls drawing for ND, that would be great...everyone just hope that the Sun Bowl wins that draw (which would help their gate as well) and that would probably leave us with a date in the Bronx.

Not a crack at Detroit, one of my favorite non-Duke sporting trips was to the last weekend of baseball in the old Detroit Tiger Stadium. Corner of Turnbull and Michigan, IIRC? Very cool.

It was mainly about the two playing each other, but also that I do not imagine a real native base for either school in Michigan. Plus (and I say this as a reformed Yankee) it is cold as dry ice in late December. If you are Bubba Ramsclubber and choosing where you want to spend a few days between Christmas and NYE, is it anywhere north of the Mason-Dixon Line? When I when to our bowl game against Wisconsin in Tampa in 1994-5, the thing I overheard all of the cheese heads saying over and over was -- "wow, it's 72 degrees here and there's three feet of snow on the ground back home."

As we both know, travel in, out, and around anyplace up north (Pinstripe Bowl included) could be beyond problematic in late December. As I said on some thread, I'll go to the Sun Bowl in El Paso before going to the Pinstripe. Can you see UNC "faithful" wanting to fly north, especially to play the Twerps?

And I agree -- the last thing I want to do is play South Carolina. I root for Steve and would hate to root against him. But I guess I feel the same about JDawkins (actually much stronger) and just did it. Tough being a high-profile team in so many sports I guess. :-)

blazindw
11-30-2014, 10:19 PM
Not a crack at Detroit, one of my favorite non-Duke sporting trips was to the last weekend of baseball in the old Detroit Tiger Stadium. Corner of Turnbull and Michigan, IIRC? Very cool.

It was mainly about the two playing each other, but also that I do not imagine a real native base for either school in Michigan. Plus (and I say this as a reformed Yankee) it is cold as dry ice in late December. If you are Bubba Ramsclubber and choosing where you want to spend a few days between Christmas and NYE, is it anywhere north of the Mason-Dixon Line? When I when to our bowl game against Wisconsin in Tampa in 1994-5, the thing I overheard all of the cheese heads saying over and over was -- "wow, it's 72 degrees here and there's three feet of snow on the ground back home."

As we both know, travel in, out, and around anyplace up north (Pinstripe Bowl included) could be beyond problematic in late December. As I said on some thread, I'll go to the Sun Bowl in El Paso before going to the Pinstripe. Can you see UNC "faithful" wanting to fly north, especially to play the Twerps?

And I agree -- the last thing I want to do is play South Carolina. I root for Steve and would hate to root against him. But I guess I feel the same about JDawkins (actually much stronger) and just did it. Tough being a high-profile team in so many sports I guess. :-)

I don't want that matchup to be true for the simple reason that I don't want those two fan bases messing up my city! :-) But yea, travel is a crapshoot in the north after December. I experienced it when going to the CFA Bowl last year and then, 5 hours after the final whistle, took the only flight from Atlanta to Detroit for the Winter Classic that actually got to land due to the 9 inches of snow that fell overnight and the 6 inches that fell during the game!

OldPhiKap
11-30-2014, 10:26 PM
I don't want that matchup to be true for the simple reason that I don't want those two fan bases messing up my city! :-) But yea, travel is a crapshoot in the north after December. I experienced it when going to the CFA Bowl last year and then, 5 hours after the final whistle, took the only flight from Atlanta to Detroit for the Winter Classic that actually got to land due to the 9 inches of snow that fell overnight and the 6 inches that fell during the game!

I remember singing Old Lang Syne as I walked out of the Georgia Dome with my son, so you had either a very short nap before your flight or a long stint at some of Atlanta's finest late-night entertainment. As long as you didn't hit the Varsity after the game, you were in good shape!

blazindw
11-30-2014, 11:50 PM
I remember singing Old Lang Syne as I walked out of the Georgia Dome with my son, so you had either a very short nap before your flight or a long stint at some of Atlanta's finest late-night entertainment. As long as you didn't hit the Varsity after the game, you were in good shape!

I did neither. I was at the lobby of the Duke team hotel for a while and then hit the airport. Slept about 5 minutes at the gate and then the entire flight to Detroit. But I digress. :)

Olympic Fan
11-30-2014, 11:51 PM
Talked to a friend in the ACC office. No clue about who goes where in Tier One (Sun/Belk/Pinstripe/Music City). He said that representatives from those four bowls will be at the ACC championship game and would meet, along with an ACC rep, sometime after the game -- either late Saturday night or early Sunday morning.

He agreed with me that the first thing that happens in that room is that all four bowls are going to say, "I want Notre Dame". I asked how they settle that and he said they'd have to work it out. I mentioned the tweet about those four bowls drawing for Notre Dame and while he's said that's possible as a last resort, they' try to talk it out first. There might be some give and take.

Duke will go to one of the four bowls (Notre Dame's presence in the tier guarantees that Duke goes in Tier One), but there is not likely to be any clue as to which of the four before they walk into that room in Charlotte. We can speculate all we want and so can the bowls -- but until they decide who gets Notre Dame, nobody's going anywhere.

Reilly
12-01-2014, 06:00 AM
With no set criteria, seemingly room for unhappiness among the tier 1 bowls. Let's say they draw lots for ND. Then, L'ville, Duke, BC, NCSU are on the table for the next three bowls, and all want L'ville -- I guess they just draw lots again and so on?

Why not put the teams up for auction? If you want ND, bid the highest to get them? Basically, a bowl pays $X to be in the room, then let the additional bidding begin.

Also, the Giglio article made it sound like only the 7-5 teams and above were in the running for a tier 1 bowl. Well, what if after the lot drawing and discussion, we're down to the last tier 1 bowl getting its choice and it wants Miami or VT rather than the 7-5+ teams left on the table, and what if Duke were left on the table, but the ACC says to the last tier 1 bowl "you gotta take Duke b/c some other bowl won the lot drawing and wanted ND"?

Or, if only a 7-5 BC is on the table, I guess the bowl could take a 6-6 Miami or 6-6 VT instead.

Reilly
12-01-2014, 06:12 AM
I'd find it interesting to know what PR/outreach Duke is doing this week, if any. That is, if Kevin White and Cut decided that 1, 2, or 3 of the tier 1 bowls (Nashville or Jax; Charlotte, El Paso, NYC) were preferred over another/others of the tier 1 bowl sites, what phone calls are being made to the preferred tier 1 bowls, what glossy brochures or powerpoints are being distributed touting Duke's economic impact on Charlotte and ATL the past two years, the Duke brand ....

Reilly
12-01-2014, 06:19 AM
Since we're talking lot drawing, are our odds of any city just:

NYC - 25%
Charlotte - 25%
El Paso - 25%
Nashville - 12.5%
Jax - 12.5%

Maybe less for Charlotte since we've been there recently ... more for NYC since we're perceivd as 'northern' ...

Is there any, any, any chance at Orlando and Russell ....

Highlander
12-01-2014, 06:23 AM
http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2014/11/30/5352824/notre-dame-complicating-bowl-future.html#.VHxdExF0yB8

OldPhiKap
12-01-2014, 06:41 AM
When are all of the bowl games announced? Is it this Sunday?

fuse
12-01-2014, 06:45 AM
There is dispute (in the twitterverse, anyway) on the accuracy of Giglio's article.

Supposedly, Notre Dame cannot be picked ahead of any of the 9-3 ACC teams.

Notre Dame at 7-5 could be picked ahead of an 8-4 team (the one game rule the ACC set for Notre Dame).

I think the Music City bowl might be best for Duke in the tier 1 slots, but like others, I have an unfounded feeling that Duke will be headed to El Paso.

Duvall
12-01-2014, 06:55 AM
There is dispute (in the twitterverse, anyway) on the accuracy of Giglio's article.

Supposedly, Notre Dame cannot be picked ahead of any of the 9-3 ACC teams.

Notre Dame at 7-5 could be picked ahead of an 8-4 team (the one game rule the ACC set for Notre Dame).

I think the Music City bowl might be best for Duke in the tier 1 slots, but like others, I have an unfounded feeling that Duke will be headed to El Paso.

The issue is that the ACC seems to have defined "picking ahead" in a way that allows Notre Dame to jump the queue within a tier, as all the bowls within the same tier are considered to be picking at the same time, even when they literally aren't.

What a corrupt and sleazy process.

OldPhiKap
12-01-2014, 08:00 AM
The issue is that the ACC seems to have defined "picking ahead" in a way that allows Notre Dame to jump the queue within a tier, as all the bowls within the same tier are considered to be picking at the same time, even when they literally aren't.

What a corrupt and sleazy process.

"How the hell did we end up in a bowl in Qatar?"

Devil in the Blue Dress
12-01-2014, 08:14 AM
When are all of the bowl games announced? Is it this Sunday?
Yes, bowl bids will be announced on Sunday.

Reilly
12-01-2014, 08:35 AM
espn kept scrolling that the CFP would be announced at 12:45 pm Sunday .... do they have an "other bowls" show/unveiling? What time?

You know what would be fun -- let the schools decide where to bowl.


Louisville, you won some complicated tiebreaker over Duke and Clemson, you pick where you'd like to go.
Duke, you have El Paso, NYC and Nashville left on the board -- which will you have?

Basically, have the bowls pay to get access to an ACC team, but then have the ACC teams, via some set, meritorious criteria, decide which bowl they will choose to attend.

Reilly
12-01-2014, 09:26 AM
Duke/Tennessee in Charlotte.

https://www.philsteele.com/bowls/14-15/bowlprojections.html

devildeac
12-01-2014, 09:29 AM
espn kept scrolling that the CFP would be announced at 12:45 pm Sunday .... do they have an "other bowls" show/unveiling? What time?

You know what would be fun -- let the schools decide where to bowl.


Louisville, you won some complicated tiebreaker over Duke and Clemson, you pick where you'd like to go.
Duke, you have El Paso, NYC and Nashville left on the board -- which will you have?

Basically, have the bowls pay to get access to an ACC team, but then have the ACC teams, via some set, meritorious criteria, decide which bowl they will choose to attend.

I'll nominate graduation rate as the first meritorious criteria (or criterion) upon which bowl selection (or choice) is determined;).

johnb
12-01-2014, 09:37 AM
Assuming that the Pinstripe doesn't get another year of Notre Dame, is there another ACC team that would outdraw Duke for a NYC-based bowl during Christmas week? Yes, flights can be tough if there's snow, but generally NYC isn't paralyzed throughout the winter months. Even so, I'd imagine we could sell out our allotment of tickets just to northeastern corridor alums and whatever NC faithful are wiling to brave cold weather. While the Sun will be warmer, it doesn't help our cause if our fans don't show up. I'd think if the committee is trying to maximize the total number of sold tickets, they'd send Notre Dame to south Texas and go with regional pairings.

duke79
12-01-2014, 09:38 AM
I'll nominate graduation rate as the first meritorious criteria (or criterion) upon which bowl selection (or choice) is determined;).

I agree.....and it would be Duke, Notre Dame, Stanford and Rice, playing for the national championship.

brevity
12-01-2014, 09:39 AM
The issue is that the ACC seems to have defined "picking ahead" in a way that allows Notre Dame to jump the queue within a tier, as all the bowls within the same tier are considered to be picking at the same time, even when they literally aren't.

What a corrupt and sleazy process.


"How the hell did we end up in a bowl in Qatar?"

College football: a model of integrity, but only when compared to FIFA.

If you like warm weather, skip Jacksonville and El Paso. January temperatures in Qatar should be in the 70s. As will the clothing styles, man.

JasonEvans
12-01-2014, 09:47 AM
I'll nominate graduation rate as the first meritorious criteria (or criterion) upon which bowl selection (or choice) is determined;).

You posted that as a joke, but I would love to see this figure into the college athletics equation in some way. Is there any question that it is harder to go 9-3 with a perfect or near-perfect graduation rate than it is to go 10-2 with a shoddy educational performance?

The most recent data (http://www.ncaa.org/about/resources/media-center/news/student-athletes-earn-diplomas-record-rate) from the NCAA indicates football players graduate at a 75% rate. Maybe you could make it so that teams with an 85% or higher graduation rate were essentially credited with an extra win when it came to bowl selection while teams with a 65% or lower graduation rate would be seen as having an extra loss.

If we did this, Miami, Wake, BC, Duke, and Notre Dame would all get bowl consideration as if they had one more win. NC St and FSU, each with exactly a 65 score from the NCAA, would appear 1 win less. I'm not sure how you would handle UNC, who have a graduation rate score of 69, but that number certainly appears to be built on corrupt classes.

We could do the same thing in basketball with NCAA tournament seeding and the such.

-Jason "zero percent chance the NCAA does this... but it would be nice" Evans

Reilly
12-01-2014, 10:13 AM
I like this attempt of a breakdown as the guy tries to figure what will happen depending on which tier 1 bowl gets ND:

http://www.bcinterruption.com/boston-college-football-2014/2014/11/30/7310969/acc-new-bowl-selection-process-explained-college-football-playoff

Reilly
12-01-2014, 10:16 AM
http://www.collegefootballplayoff.com/about-the-rankings

devildeac
12-01-2014, 10:23 AM
You posted that as a joke, but I would love to see this figure into the college athletics equation in some way. Is there any question that it is harder to go 9-3 with a perfect or near-perfect graduation rate than it is to go 10-2 with a shoddy educational performance?

The most recent data (http://www.ncaa.org/about/resources/media-center/news/student-athletes-earn-diplomas-record-rate) from the NCAA indicates football players graduate at a 75% rate. Maybe you could make it so that teams with an 85% or higher graduation rate were essentially credited with an extra win when it came to bowl selection while teams with a 65% or lower graduation rate would be seen as having an extra loss.

If we did this, Miami, Wake, BC, Duke, and Notre Dame would all get bowl consideration as if they had one more win. NC St and FSU, each with exactly a 65 score from the NCAA, would appear 1 win less. I'm not sure how you would handle UNC, who have a graduation rate score of 69, but that number certainly appears to be built on corrupt classes.

We could do the same thing in basketball with NCAA tournament seeding and the such.

-Jason "zero percent chance the NCAA does this... but it would be nice" Evans

I posted it as half-joking and half-serious when I realized what other ACC teams were in the Tier I bowl soup (or soup bowl, I guess:o) and Reilly's suggestion of meritorious criteria prompted my reply. I thought about using APRs as an additional criterion thinking there might be some way c*rolina could be excluded, again half-serious/half-comical relief. (BTW, if I'm reading correctly, for 2012 and 2013 we had a 989, representing a 3 point drop and are [sic:rolleyes:] felonious "friends" down 15-501 had a 934, a 4 point drop. ;) ) So I say, "throw da bums out."

http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2014/5/14/5717872/new-2013-apr-scores-ncaa-football

Bob Green
12-01-2014, 10:24 AM
I like this attempt of a breakdown as the guy tries to figure what will happen depending on which tier 1 bowl gets ND:

Thanks for the link, that was interesting. Duke heads to El Paso and the Sun Bowl in three of four scenarios presented. If the Sun Bowl gets Notre Dame, Duke winds up in Charlotte at the Belk Bowl.

Reilly
12-01-2014, 10:38 AM
Thanks for the link, that was interesting. Duke heads to El Paso and the Sun Bowl in three of four scenarios presented. If the Sun Bowl gets Notre Dame, Duke winds up in Charlotte at the Belk Bowl.

His Duke to the Belk Bowl scenario also has NC State at home and BC to the Pinstripe. Maybe a more likely pecking order in that situation would be NC State to the Belk, Duke to Pinstripe, and BC gets left at home. Of course, I'm writing that as a Duke fan, and he's writing for a BC audience. Belk presumably would take NC State over Duke, it seems.

devildeac
12-01-2014, 10:57 AM
His Duke to the Belk Bowl scenario also has NC State at home and BC to the Pinstripe. Maybe a more likely pecking order in that situation would be NC State to the Belk, Duke to Pinstripe, and BC gets left at home. Of course, I'm writing that as a Duke fan, and he's writing for a BC audience. Belk presumably would take NC State over Duke, it seems.

Wait, why won't the Belk Bowl take Duke and NCSU as those two teams rarely play each other:rolleyes:;)?

(Kidding, of course. Mostly.)

asbcheeks
12-01-2014, 11:13 AM
Root for mich st to pass miss st in cfp rankings tmrw. If that happens b1g is practically a lock for orange, which opens up a citrus spot for acc (also need bama to win the sec champ on sat, otherwise they are a definite for orange).

In that scenario, have to assume citrus takes Clemson and Russell might consider duke ahead of Louisville since Louisville played in Russell last year. That's my best case scenario at the moment.

Bluedog
12-01-2014, 11:18 AM
I'll nominate graduation rate as the first meritorious criteria (or criterion) upon which bowl selection (or choice) is determined;).


You posted that as a joke, but I would love to see this figure into the college athletics equation in some way. Is there any question that it is harder to go 9-3 with a perfect or near-perfect graduation rate than it is to go 10-2 with a shoddy educational performance?

The most recent data (http://www.ncaa.org/about/resources/media-center/news/student-athletes-earn-diplomas-record-rate) from the NCAA indicates football players graduate at a 75% rate. Maybe you could make it so that teams with an 85% or higher graduation rate were essentially credited with an extra win when it came to bowl selection while teams with a 65% or lower graduation rate would be seen as having an extra loss.

If we did this, Miami, Wake, BC, Duke, and Notre Dame would all get bowl consideration as if they had one more win. NC St and FSU, each with exactly a 65 score from the NCAA, would appear 1 win less. I'm not sure how you would handle UNC, who have a graduation rate score of 69, but that number certainly appears to be built on corrupt classes.

We could do the same thing in basketball with NCAA tournament seeding and the such.

-Jason "zero percent chance the NCAA does this... but it would be nice" Evans

APR is actually used for something in relation to bowls...it serves as the 6th option to fill bowl slots when there aren't enough bowl eligible teams:


Now, first consideration will go to 6-6 teams with a win against any FCS teams, regardless of scholarships, then 6-6 teams with two wins against FCS schools.

A team that finishes 6-7 and loses in a conference championship would be next, followed by 6-7 teams that normally play a 13-team schedule, such as Hawaii and its home opponents.

Then bowls could then invite FCS teams making the move to FBS, if they have at least a 6-6 record.

Finally, a team with a top-five APR that finishes 5-7 could be selected.

http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/8228544/ncaa-new-bowl-game-tiebreakers-include-fcs-wins-5-7-teams

Don't know if that's ever happened yet.

devildeac
12-01-2014, 11:23 AM
I posted it as half-joking and half-serious when I realized what other ACC teams were in the Tier I bowl soup (or soup bowl, I guess:o) and Reilly's suggestion of meritorious criteria prompted my reply. I thought about using APRs as an additional criterion thinking there might be some way c*rolina could be excluded, again half-serious/half-comical relief. (BTW, if I'm reading correctly, for 2012 and 2013 we had a 989, representing a 3 point drop and are [sic:rolleyes:] felonious "friends" down 15-501 had a 934, a 4 point drop. ;) ) So I say, "throw da bums out."

http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2014/5/14/5717872/new-2013-apr-scores-ncaa-football

Apologies. I mixed up my years/columns. Duke actually went up 3 points and the cheaters went up 4 points and that was probably a "real" increase because I think Debby Crowder left in 2009 and is unlikely to have led to this inflated number:rolleyes:.

Reilly
12-01-2014, 12:42 PM
Root for mich st to pass miss st in cfp rankings tmrw. If that happens b1g is practically a lock for orange, which opens up a citrus spot for acc ...

I've read this elsewhere. I'm not questioning whether this is true -- but I don't understand how/why it's true.

Rose/Sugar = top 4 teams.

Orange = ACC team.

Orange opponent cannot be Big 10 champion.

Cotton/Fiesta/Peach = 6 teams, but one of those 6 will be Boise or somebody from a lesser conference, leaving 5 slots in those 3 bowls.

If the Big 10 champ is not in the CFP, it will be in the Cotton/Fiesta/Peach.

I believe all of the above statements are true, but I don't understand how they add up to rooting for Michigan State to pass Mississippi State in the rankings.

Shouldn't we just be rooting for a non-championship-winning Big 10 team to finish in the top 10 or so of the Rankings to have a shot at the Orange? Why does that non-championship-winning team have to finsih above Missippi State?

asbcheeks
12-01-2014, 01:29 PM
I've read this elsewhere. I'm not questioning whether this is true -- but I don't understand how/why it's true.

Rose/Sugar = top 4 teams.

Orange = ACC team.

Orange opponent cannot be Big 10 champion.

Cotton/Fiesta/Peach = 6 teams, but one of those 6 will be Boise or somebody from a lesser conference, leaving 5 slots in those 3 bowls.

If the Big 10 champ is not in the CFP, it will be in the Cotton/Fiesta/Peach.

I believe all of the above statements are true, but I don't understand how they add up to rooting for Michigan State to pass Mississippi State in the rankings.

Shouldn't we just be rooting for a non-championship-winning Big 10 team to finish in the top 10 or so of the Rankings to have a shot at the Orange? Why does that non-championship-winning team have to finsih above Missippi State?

Per multiple sources, the Orange Bowl will select the highest-ranked, non CFP-qualilfying, non-conference champ from the B1G, SEC, and ND. If Bama and OSU win their respective conference championships, the Orange Bowl slot is effectively down to the higher-ranked of the 2 MSUs. I am assuming that UGA and Auburn (both losers this weekend) and Wisky (a loser to OSU next weekend in this scenario) would fall off and are not in play for highest ranking. Of course, if Wisky wins this weekend, OSU comes into play - if they finish higher ranked than the 2 MSUs, they would be in. However, if Bama loses this weekend, I think it's safe to assume they would be the highest ranked non-CFP, non-champ, and would land in the Orange Bowl. So go Bama, and go Sparty in tomorrow's rankings.

Here's the relevant language from the Orange Bowl wiki, fwiw:

"The ACC team's opponent in a given year will be the highest-ranked available team from the SEC, B1G (this always excludes the SEC and Big Ten champions. If an SEC or Big Ten team—or teams—qualify for the College Football Playoff, the next available team would also be excluded from participating in the Orange Bowl due to contractual obligations with the Sugar and Rose Bowls, respectively), and Notre Dame, subject to these constraints. Also, should this highest-ranked team create a rematch with the ACC team, the Orange Bowl has the option of passing over that team for the next-highest ranked team among the B1G, SEC, and Notre Dame, again subject to the above contractual constraints. The College Football Playoff committee's rankings will be used to select the ACC's opponent."

NOTE: re: "If an SEC or Big Ten team—or teams—qualify for the College Football Playoff, the next available team would also be excluded from participating in the Orange Bowl due to contractual obligations with the Sugar and Rose Bowls, respectively" - this does not apply this year as the Sugar and Rose are hosting CFP semis.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orange_Bowl

asbcheeks
12-01-2014, 01:44 PM
More, from the Orange Bowl site:

"The selection of the opponent will be based on the guiding principle of securing the highest-ranked team in the final standings available from the Big Ten, SEC or Notre Dame, but will also utilize criteria that shares the minimum appearance standards as agreed upon by all parties. The standards include at least three guaranteed appearances over the 12 years for both the Big Ten and the SEC and a maximum of two with no minimum for Notre Dame."

http://events.orangebowl.org/-acc-and-orange-bowl-announce-opponent-and-broadcast-partner/

Olympic Fan
12-01-2014, 01:45 PM
I'm not sure of the reasoning behind the idea that a Big Ten Champion Ohio State could not play in the Orange Bowl.

If Ohio State beats Wisconsin and finishes as the 12-1 Big Ten champs and don't make the playoff (a likely scenario), where do they play?

Normally, it would be the Rose Bowl. But the Rose is one of the semifinal sites this year, so that's out. So I ask, where does the Big Ten champ play in that scenario? The Chick-fil-A Bowl? The Fiesta Bowl?

I'd love to see a Big Ten team -- either Ohio State or 2-loss Michigan State -- play Georgia Tech in the Orange. That would open up an ACC slot in the Citrus Bowl. I know that would probably go to Clemson or Louisville (the other getting the Russell), but it still moves us up the pecking order.

asbcheeks
12-01-2014, 01:52 PM
I'm not sure of the reasoning behind the idea that a Big Ten Champion Ohio State could not play in the Orange Bowl.

If Ohio State beats Wisconsin and finishes as the 12-1 Big Ten champs and don't make the playoff (a likely scenario), where do they play?

Normally, it would be the Rose Bowl. But the Rose is one of the semifinal sites this year, so that's out. So I ask, where does the Big Ten champ play in that scenario? The Chick-fil-A Bowl? The Fiesta Bowl?

I'd love to see a Big Ten team -- either Ohio State or 2-loss Michigan State -- play Georgia Tech in the Orange. That would open up an ACC slot in the Citrus Bowl. I know that would probably go to Clemson or Louisville (the other getting the Russell), but it still moves us up the pecking order.

"While a Big Ten or SEC team could be selected to the Orange Bowl, the commissioners have agreed that when the Rose and/or Sugar bowls are hosting the semifinals, the Big Ten or SEC champion will not be placed in the Orange Bowl."

http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/8624387/six-bowls-pool-college-football-semifinal-games

Duvall
12-01-2014, 01:53 PM
"While a Big Ten or SEC team could be selected to the Orange Bowl, the commissioners have agreed that when the Rose and/or Sugar bowls are hosting the semifinals, the Big Ten or SEC champion will not be placed in the Orange Bowl."

http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/8624387/six-bowls-pool-college-football-semifinal-games

So I guess the answer is that Ohio State goes wherever the Pac-12 replacement is going to complete the Not The Rose Bowl Bowl.

Reilly
12-01-2014, 02:09 PM
I'm not sure of the reasoning behind the idea that a Big Ten Champion Ohio State could not play in the Orange Bowl.

If Ohio State beats Wisconsin and finishes as the 12-1 Big Ten champs and don't make the playoff (a likely scenario), where do they play?

Normally, it would be the Rose Bowl. But the Rose is one of the semifinal sites this year, so that's out. So I ask, where does the Big Ten champ play in that scenario? The Chick-fil-A Bowl? The Fiesta Bowl?

I'd love to see a Big Ten team -- either Ohio State or 2-loss Michigan State -- play Georgia Tech in the Orange. That would open up an ACC slot in the Citrus Bowl. I know that would probably go to Clemson or Louisville (the other getting the Russell), but it still moves us up the pecking order.

I believe the reasoning as to why a Big 10 champion could not play in the Orange Bowl is so that the Cotton, Fiesta and Peach get some star power in the form of that Big 10 champion.

The four top dogs are off to the CFP. The Orange has the ACC champion or the next highest ranked ACC team. At this point, 3 of the 6 NY6 bowls are taken care of to some extent ... so throw the Cotton/Fiesta/Peach a bone in the form of the Big 10 champ when the Big 10 champ is not in the CFP and the Rose is busy with the CFP.

Reilly
12-01-2014, 02:18 PM
... "The ACC team's opponent in a given year will be the highest-ranked available team from the SEC, B1G (this always excludes the SEC and Big Ten champions. ...

So the Orange Bowl gets the first selection after the CFP (well, first selection of non-champion SEC, Big 10 and ND teams)? That's the part I didn't realize. I thought the committee was working to create the best match-ups in the other four of NY6 bowls ... I knew the ACC was slotted to the Orange; I didn't realize there was the condition as to who was the ACC's opponent. In other words, I thought there were 6 slots total between the 5 slots of the Fiesta/Peach/Cotton and then the "other" Orange slot just to be divided any which way.

Good lord this is all complicated, and it'll get really fun in future years when the "can't play in the X bowl more than Y times in Z years" clauses kick into effect.

Highlander
12-01-2014, 02:22 PM
You posted that as a joke, but I would love to see this figure into the college athletics equation in some way. Is there any question that it is harder to go 9-3 with a perfect or near-perfect graduation rate than it is to go 10-2 with a shoddy educational performance?

The most recent data (http://www.ncaa.org/about/resources/media-center/news/student-athletes-earn-diplomas-record-rate) from the NCAA indicates football players graduate at a 75% rate. Maybe you could make it so that teams with an 85% or higher graduation rate were essentially credited with an extra win when it came to bowl selection while teams with a 65% or lower graduation rate would be seen as having an extra loss.

If we did this, Miami, Wake, BC, Duke, and Notre Dame would all get bowl consideration as if they had one more win. NC St and FSU, each with exactly a 65 score from the NCAA, would appear 1 win less. I'm not sure how you would handle UNC, who have a graduation rate score of 69, but that number certainly appears to be built on corrupt classes.

We could do the same thing in basketball with NCAA tournament seeding and the such.

-Jason "zero percent chance the NCAA does this... but it would be nice" Evans

One issue I see with this is that it would incentivize universities to artificially enhance their graduation rates in order to get this extra win, creating more situations like UNC's AFAM scandal. I like the sentiment behind it, however.

Jim3k
12-01-2014, 05:17 PM
Someone needs to provide a Boolean chart for all these variants.

Reilly
12-01-2014, 07:39 PM
Duke - Penn State in Pinstripe

OldPhiKap
12-01-2014, 07:42 PM
Duke - Penn State in Pinstripe

Would we shake their hands before the game?

wilson
12-01-2014, 07:52 PM
Someone needs to provide a Boolean chart for all these variants.The last couple of years, I have followed the bowl breakdown closely and I had a pretty good understanding of Duke's prospects at the close of the regular season. This year, despite having read numerous articles and prognostications, I genuinely can't figure out the sequencing. This latest iteration of the system is a mess.

devildeac
12-01-2014, 08:15 PM
Would we shake their hands before the game?

Not our rivals:rolleyes:.

Duvall
12-01-2014, 08:17 PM
The last couple of years, I have followed the bowl breakdown closely and I had a pretty good understanding of Duke's prospects at the close of the regular season. This year, despite having read numerous articles and prognostications, I genuinely can't figure out the sequencing. This latest iteration of the system is a mess.

What system?


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WdNsltQXTVU

Wander
12-01-2014, 08:38 PM
Is this really what we're looking at? We go 9-3 and our opponent might be a team that went 2-6 in the Big 10 and shouldn't even be allowed to play in a bowl? Ugh.

Duvall
12-01-2014, 08:43 PM
Is this really what we're looking at? We go 9-3 and our opponent might be a team that went 2-6 in the Big 10 and shouldn't even be allowed to play in a bowl? Ugh.

You see, the bowl system is not designed to reward schools for winning, it's designed to reward oversized state schools for pumping out alumni in states that any reasonable person would look to flee in late December, because they result in ticket sales that support the phony-baloney jobs of bowl executives.

The Big Ten is correspondingly highly valued in this process.

OldPhiKap
12-01-2014, 08:55 PM
Not our rivals:rolleyes:.

Good point. We should probably send flowers and a condolence card.

uh_no
12-01-2014, 09:12 PM
Is this really what we're looking at? We go 9-3 and our opponent might be a team that went 2-6 in the Big 10 and shouldn't even be allowed to play in a bowl? Ugh.

shrug. we're paying for the sins of the conference by and large being extremely mediocre for most of the past 12 years....wasn't it only a year or 2 ago when we finally won a BCS game?

the tie ins are set up to create good matchups...and we (duke) certainly didn't do anything to demonstrate that the ACC should be paired with higher ranking teams from other conferences

there's the draw too....most of the ACC isn't a huge tv draw nationally.....unlike OSU, USC, Alabama, ND (etc)....part of that we can't deal with (big state schools...) and part of it is again, being consistently mediocre....

yeah FSU is great, but until we get another school up there consistently, then we're toast


what it comes down to is winning fixes everything.

don't like that the ACC has crap pairings? play better and improve the view of the conference...unfortunately this takes time
don't like that we get shafted by bigger bowls? Don't lay an egg against VT and then get run over like a manhole cover when you're playing a huge game on thursday night on national tv

OldPhiKap
12-01-2014, 09:16 PM
Is this really what we're looking at? We go 9-3 and our opponent might be a team that went 2-6 in the Big 10 and shouldn't even be allowed to play in a bowl? Ugh.

Then we better }*%*#*} win the }*#*%*#* game. I will take 10-3 and let history judge me.

msdukie
12-01-2014, 09:24 PM
shrug. we're paying for the sins of the conference by and large being extremely mediocre for most of the past 12 years....wasn't it only a year or 2 ago when we finally won a BCS game?

the tie ins are set up to create good matchups...and we (duke) certainly didn't do anything to demonstrate that the ACC should be paired with higher ranking teams from other conferences

there's the draw too....most of the ACC isn't a huge tv draw nationally.....unlike OSU, USC, Alabama, ND (etc)....part of that we can't deal with (big state schools...) and part of it is again, being consistently mediocre....

yeah FSU is great, but until we get another school up there consistently, then we're toast


what it comes down to is winning fixes everything.

don't like that the ACC has crap pairings? play better and improve the view of the conference...unfortunately this takes time
don't like that we get shafted by bigger bowls? Don't lay an egg against VT and then get run over like a manhole cover when you're playing a huge game on thursday night on national tv

I agree about laying eggs, but otherwise we are paying for the sin of being a small private school.

roywhite
12-01-2014, 09:34 PM
Is this really what we're looking at? We go 9-3 and our opponent might be a team that went 2-6 in the Big 10 and shouldn't even be allowed to play in a bowl? Ugh.

And exactly why is it you think Penn State "shouldn't even be allowed" to play in a bowl?

What is an appropriate measure of punishment to be borne by players who were 5 to 9 years old when ex-coach Jerry Sandusky was caught in a shower with a young boy?

OldPhiKap
12-01-2014, 09:36 PM
I agree about laying eggs, but otherwise we are paying for the sin of being a small private school.

There is something to this. But by the same token, we are not much different in that regard from Baylor, TCU, Stanford, Notre Dame, or Stanford. It's about building the brand, and that starts with winning consistently and putting an exciting product on the field. We are on the upswing and (hopefully) not near the apex yet.

uh_no
12-01-2014, 10:02 PM
I agree about laying eggs, but otherwise we are paying for the sin of being a small private school.

i find that a tough argument after we went up against johnny football last year....


as OPK said....when we play great football, we'll get great respect. being a private school doesn't seem to hurt our view in basketball...i have no idea why it would in football.

Duvall
12-01-2014, 10:05 PM
shrug. we're paying for the sins of the conference by and large being extremely mediocre for most of the past 12 years....wasn't it only a year or 2 ago when we finally won a BCS game?

the tie ins are set up to create good matchups...and we (duke) certainly didn't do anything to demonstrate that the ACC should be paired with higher ranking teams from other conferences

there's the draw too....most of the ACC isn't a huge tv draw nationally.....unlike OSU, USC, Alabama, ND (etc)....part of that we can't deal with (big state schools...) and part of it is again, being consistently mediocre....

yeah FSU is great, but until we get another school up there consistently, then we're toast


what it comes down to is winning fixes everything.

But it doesn't. That's the problem. Winning is, at best, a secondary consideration. Having a sizable alumni base is far more important to the degenerates that make the decisions for bowl games. But even if winning *did* fix everything, isn't that still kind of crazy? A team's postseason success, in the closest thing the sport has to a real postseason, depends on the success that other teams in their conference did or did not have a decade ago, and the corresponding bowl contracts? That's *insane* and would be considered unacceptable in any other sport. But college football fans accept it, for some bizarre reason.

Duvall
12-01-2014, 10:07 PM
i find that a tough argument after we went up against johnny football last year....


as OPK said....when we play great football, we'll get great respect. being a private school doesn't seem to hurt our view in basketball...i have no idea why it would in football.

Because basketball has a tournament. You don't need to inherit respect in college basketball, you just go out and take it.

mo.st.dukie
12-01-2014, 10:15 PM
Because basketball has a tournament. You don't need to inherit respect in college basketball, you just go out and take it.

Exactly, it's why college basketball is superior to college football. College football is all about traditions of the last 50 years and who was good back in those days. Traditions is why it took them so long to even have a "playoff." Football is focused on just a handful of teams and it matters a great deal what conference you are in. Basketball has a much wider scope and it doesn't matter if you have no tradition of success or how big your school is or how big your fanbase is or what conference you come from, if you are selected as one of the 68 best teams out of 351 you can make your mark. And those 68 teams has a wide range of geographic locations, school sizes, fan bases, styles of play, wins and losses, conference affiliations. To me college basketball is far more interesting because of the wider scope whereas football seems to be so narrowly focused and the bowl games, while nice for Duke to be a part of, just seem hollow to me.

Stanford and ND have decades of football tradition. Baylor and TCU play in a conference that has much better tradition and respect than the ACC plus the added benefit of being located in a state where football is a religion. It is much easier for those two teams to gain respect by winning 8-10 games than it would for Duke.

duke09hms
12-01-2014, 10:33 PM
And exactly why is it you think Penn State "shouldn't even be allowed" to play in a bowl?

What is an appropriate measure of punishment to be borne by players who were 5 to 9 years old when ex-coach Jerry Sandusky was caught in a shower with a young boy?

This is likely a digression but perhaps it is to inhibit a university culture that values football so highly that football-related breaches of conduct are easily overlooked. Not PSU-unique, probably the general territory of large state schools in more rural states.

I'm a PA native, so I've been around this blind fandom my whole life and have heard all kinds of ridiculous statements from fans trying to brush the scandal aside.

Reilly
12-02-2014, 05:10 AM
ACC opponent in Orange Bowl:


"During the eight years when the Orange Bowl does not host a semifinal it will feature the Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) Champion, or if the champion is participating in the College Football Playoff the next highest ranked ACC school (selected by the CFP selection committee), against the highest ranked available school from either the Big Ten Conference, Southeastern Conference (SEC) or Notre Dame (as chosen by the CFP selection committee). The Big Ten and SEC will receive a minimum of three Orange Bowl appearances each during the eight games and Notre Dame may make up to two appearances in the eight games."

http://game.orangebowl.org/assets/1/7/Road_to_South_Florida_-_Week_1_(web).pdf

I guess what is left out of that description is that the ACC opponent is *not* the Big 10 champ if such champ is still on the board and not in the CFP. Will be interesting at the end of the 8 years when possibly the highest ranked rule goes by the wayside in order to adhere to the the "must be in the game 3/8" conference rule.

Reilly
12-02-2014, 05:20 AM
Duke/USC in the Sun Bowl would be pretty cool ... replay of 1938-39 season Rose Bowl, schools with national brands ... seems to have more name power than, say, a GT/MissSt Orange Bowl ....

OldPhiKap
12-02-2014, 06:27 AM
Exactly, it's why college basketball is superior to college football. College football is all about traditions of the last 50 years and who was good back in those days. Traditions is why it took them so long to even have a "playoff." Football is focused on just a handful of teams and it matters a great deal what conference you are in. Basketball has a much wider scope and it doesn't matter if you have no tradition of success or how big your school is or how big your fanbase is or what conference you come from, if you are selected as one of the 68 best teams out of 351 you can make your mark. And those 68 teams has a wide range of geographic locations, school sizes, fan bases, styles of play, wins and losses, conference affiliations. To me college basketball is far more interesting because of the wider scope whereas football seems to be so narrowly focused and the bowl games, while nice for Duke to be a part of, just seem hollow to me.

Stanford and ND have decades of football tradition. Baylor and TCU play in a conference that has much better tradition and respect than the ACC plus the added benefit of being located in a state where football is a religion. It is much easier for those two teams to gain respect by winning 8-10 games than it would for Duke.

Oregon is a good counter-argument though. The Ducks had hit-and-mostly-miss football for decades, but Chip Kelly and now Mark Helfrich have put together a product over the last seven or so years that people (not just alums) want to watch.

Duke has decades of football tradition too. It's just further in the past. Perhaps this is the Revival of that tradition, or a modern adaptation of it. These things are all built over time, in every sport.

jv001
12-02-2014, 06:35 AM
Oregon is a good counter-argument though. The Ducks had hit-and-mostly-miss football for decades, but Chip Kelly and now Mark Helfrich have put together a product over the last seven or so years that people (not just alums) want to watch.

Duke has decades of football tradition too. It's just further in the past. Perhaps this is the Revival of that tradition, or a modern adaptation of it. These things are all built over time, in every sport.

I was thinking this(bolded) but was just too lazy to post it. Duke does indeed have football tradition, however those really bad years put most Duke football fans to sleep. I can remember Mike Curtis, Tee Moorman, Scotty Glacken, Steve Jones, Jay Wilkerson, Ernie Jackson, Mike McGee, etc. I'm glad that we had this senior class and a great head coach in David Cutliff to build Duke football back to where it belongs. GoDuke!

CameronBornAndBred
12-02-2014, 07:17 AM
Is this really what we're looking at? We go 9-3 and our opponent might be a team that went 2-6 in the Big 10 and shouldn't even be allowed to play in a bowl? Ugh.
Aside from the "shouldn't even be allowed to play in a bowl" part, remember that a 6-6 (3-5) Duke team played a 9-3 Cincinnati team in 2012.

OldPhiKap
12-02-2014, 07:47 AM
Aside from the "shouldn't even be allowed to play in a bowl" part, remember that a 6-6 (3-5) Duke team played a 9-3 Cincinnati team in 2012.

i would be happy playing PSU. For the reasons that Budwom is about to explain.

budwom
12-02-2014, 07:48 AM
This whole process is utterly unpredictable (to me anyway) so I'm just going to wait and see what happens.

I can understand the various views expressed about wanting to play a highly ranked opponent, but my view is a win is more important, so
I'll gladly take Penn State as that should be a winnable game. Another ten win season would be great for recruiting, and I'm far from convinced
that either recruits or 90% of fans can tell you Penn State's record....they CAN tell you they're a pretty big name program.

CameronBornAndBred
12-02-2014, 08:01 AM
This whole process is utterly unpredictable (to me anyway) so I'm just going to wait and see what happens.

I can understand the various views expressed about wanting to play a highly ranked opponent, but my view is a win is more important, so
I'll gladly take Penn State as that should be a winnable game. Another ten win season would be great for recruiting, and I'm far from convinced
that either recruits or 90% of fans can tell you Penn State's record....they CAN tell you they're a pretty big name program.
I'm in the same camp as you. A win in a bowl game over a big name program would be huge. I'd rather it be over Tennessee in the Belk Bowl than over PSU in the icicle bowl, though. (Even though my couch will be warm as I watch the victory on my tv.)

Reilly
12-02-2014, 08:28 AM
I don't like all this "let's hope for a weaker opponent" talk.

I do understand it -- I skipped the Alabama game in Wallace Wade, I didn't go to the ACC Championship game last year. But I don't like it. I was also deathly afraid of what TexA&M would do to our D (maybe well-founded fears).

I read Cut's words in 2008 -- we're here to win championships, people are going to laugh, I hope they do, it just adds fuel to the fire -- and I was fired up by them, but I didn't even really believe them. I read those words and I'm thinking "just get us to 6-6, maybe some 7 or 8 win seaons now and again, and I'll be heaven."

I wanted to believe, but I didn't truly believe.

But damn -- David Cutcliffe and those players truly believed. And that's why we have hardware in a trophy case, and 19 wins the past two years. And it's not b/c they sat around saying "I hope we get a winnable game."

Best bowl we can get. We're worthy. And if we're not worthy, the only way to get worthy is to start believing we are worthy and acting like we are worthy.

Wander
12-02-2014, 08:30 AM
Fair enough on the point about the bowl win guys. I'll add that if we win a bowl game, we'll probably end the season ranked.

johnb
12-02-2014, 08:53 AM
I don't like all this "let's hope for a weaker opponent" talk. ...

But damn -- David Cutcliffe and those players truly believed. And that's why we have hardware in a trophy case, and 19 wins the past two years. And it's not b/c they sat around saying "I hope we get a winnable game." ...



I agree with the sentiment, but would add that Cut was involved in creating a nonconference schedule that focused on the Troys and Kansases. While I'm sure his week-to-week focus is to beat whoever is next up, he did make a decision to ensure that the next team up hasn't recently been Alabama, Oklahoma, or Oregon.

As for the bowl game, I'd prefer a win to a stirring loss, though it is tough to predict which team would be the best fit. I'd guess we could realistically beat anyone we're likely to get matched against (we did beat Gatech), and also lose to any bowl eligible team (we did lose to Vatech).

Devil in the Blue Dress
12-02-2014, 08:56 AM
I don't like all this "let's hope for a weaker opponent" talk.

I do understand it -- I skipped the Alabama game in Wallace Wade, I didn't go to the ACC Championship game last year. But I don't like it. I was also deathly afraid of what TexA&M would do to our D (maybe well-founded fears).

I read Cut's words in 2008 -- we're here to win championships, people are going to laugh, I hope they do, it just adds fuel to the fire -- and I was fired up by them, but I didn't even really believe them. I read those words and I'm thinking "just get us to 6-6, maybe some 7 or 8 win seaons now and again, and I'll be heaven."

I wanted to believe, but I didn't truly believe.

But damn -- David Cutcliffe and those players truly believed. And that's why we have hardware in a trophy case, and 19 wins the past two years. And it's not b/c they sat around saying "I hope we get a winnable game."

Best bowl we can get. We're worthy. And if we're not worthy, the only way to get worthy is to start believing we are worthy and acting like we are worthy.

In the early days of this football revolution, Coach Cutcliffe often spoke about how the players had to learn to think like winners. He said the same thing about fans. When Duke was selected to play A&M in the last bowl, I was very concerned.... the old thinking about Duke football. How the team played showed me that I was behind in this evolution to becoming a winning program. While it might be somewhat satisfying to beat a lesser opponent, winners want to beat the best opponent.

Chicago 1995
12-02-2014, 09:19 AM
And exactly why is it you think Penn State "shouldn't even be allowed" to play in a bowl?

What is an appropriate measure of punishment to be borne by players who were 5 to 9 years old when ex-coach Jerry Sandusky was caught in a shower with a young boy?

The players didn't have to bear any punishment. All were given the ability to transfer without penalty. Hence, they chose to bear that otherwise richly deserved and, IMO far too lenient punishment -- by staying at Penn State.

Reilly
12-02-2014, 10:26 AM
Duke/Penn State in the Pinstripe ...

http://www.foxsports.com/college-football/story/alabama-oregon-florida-state-baylor-final-bowl-projections-120214

Reilly
12-02-2014, 10:31 AM
wild, controversial bowl selection Sunday coming ...

http://www.foxsports.com/college-football/story/sec-big-ten-acc-college-football-playoff-bowls-selection-sunday-primer-120214

roywhite
12-02-2014, 10:47 AM
The players didn't have to bear any punishment. All were given the ability to transfer without penalty. Hence, they chose to bear that otherwise richly deserved and, IMO far too lenient punishment -- by staying at Penn State.

And those sanctions were reduced by the NCAA, strongly suggesting they over-reached. By the way, only a very small number of current players there played under Paterno; consider how long this has been going on.

The question remains -- why gripe NOW about them not deserving a bowl game?

Duvall
12-02-2014, 10:49 AM
And those sanctions were reduced by the NCAA, strongly suggesting they over-reached.

The question remains -- why gripe NOW about them not deserving a bowl game?

I mean, I imagine it's because of the child rape coverup.

duke09hms
12-02-2014, 10:56 AM
I mean, I imagine it's because of the child rape coverup.

Yeah, I suppose that could be it.

sagegrouse
12-02-2014, 11:05 AM
wild, controversial bowl selection Sunday coming ...

http://www.foxsports.com/college-football/story/sec-big-ten-acc-college-football-playoff-bowls-selection-sunday-primer-120214

Ah, yes! What I call the "sorority rush" method of selection, where each side makes a list of priorities. It is also used in medicine to place new MDs in resident programs. To be fair, I think this only seems to apply to the Big Ten.


Come Sunday, the bowls will each rank in order their top three preferred teams, and the schools will indicate where they’d most like to go, at which point Rudner and commissioner Jim Delany will go into matchmaker mode. All of which makes it much harder than years past to predict ahead of time who’s going where.
The whole bowl and playoff selection process is a dream for sports columnists -- they get two or three really easy columns about the bowl selection controversies.

OldPhiKap
12-02-2014, 11:55 AM
I have absolutely no clue why what happened with Sandusky has any bearing whatsoever on a bowl in 2014. It was horrible; it was punished; it is past. Whether the punishment was appropriate or not is a debate for a different forum. No one condones what happened, that is a straw-man argument.

If we play PSU, the thing I care about most are the players on the field and the points on the scoreboard.

jimsumner
12-02-2014, 12:16 PM
Folks, Eisenhower was president the last time Duke won a bowl game, Pete Best was still drumming with the lads and I was 10 years-old.

So, permit me to hope for a winnable game, preferably one against a team whose historic profile is higher than their current talent base. Either Tennessee or Penn State would fit the bill nicely. Perhaps, Southern Cal, although I'm told one can see the end of the earth from El Paso.

OldPhiKap
12-02-2014, 12:28 PM
Folks, Eisenhower was president the last time Duke won a bowl game, Pete Best was still drumming with the lads and I was 10 years-old.

So, permit me to hope for a winnable game, preferably one against a team whose historic profile is higher than their current talent base. Either Tennessee or Penn State would fit the bill nicely. Perhaps, Southern Cal, although I'm told one can see the end of the earth from El Paso.

And not the pretty end.

Chicago 1995
12-02-2014, 03:02 PM
And those sanctions were reduced by the NCAA, strongly suggesting they over-reached. By the way, only a very small number of current players there played under Paterno; consider how long this has been going on.

The question remains -- why gripe NOW about them not deserving a bowl game?

I'm not griping about them deserving a bowl game. I'm griping about them playing football at all. I thought that program should have been shut down at the time, and nothing's changed such that I've revised that position.

Reilly
12-02-2014, 07:06 PM
So Mich St is now ranked above Miss State, meaning the ACC seemingly gains the Citrus Bowl slot.

Fla State - CFP or other NY6 bowl
GT - Orange
Clemson/L'ville - Citrus
Clemson/L'ville - RAB

Let's hope Charlotte or El Paso or NYC wins the ND lottery.

Duke to Nashville or Jax ....

Duvall
12-02-2014, 07:07 PM
So Mich St is now ranked above Miss State, meaning the ACC seemingly gains the Citrus Bowl slot.

Fla State - CFP or other NY6 bowl
GT - Orange
Clemson/L'ville - Citrus
Clemson/L'ville - RAB

Let's hope Charlotte or El Paso or NYC wins the ND lottery.

Duke to Nashville or Jax ....

Jacksonville! El Paso! The South Bronx! ACC bowl tie-ins offer visits to only the most exciting locations.

weezie
12-02-2014, 07:12 PM
... The South Bronx! ACC bowl tie-ins offer visits to only the most exciting locations.

Now, now...I know of some delightful beer drinking establishments near the Stadium of Yankees.

Duvall
12-02-2014, 07:33 PM
Now, now...I know of some delightful beer drinking establishments near the Stadium of Yankees.

Also adjacent to $500/night hotel rooms. Joy.

Reilly
12-02-2014, 08:13 PM
http://www.newsobserver.com/2014/12/02/4371509_acc-gets-a-boost-from-big-ten.html?sp=/99/103/&rh=1

Dev11
12-02-2014, 08:23 PM
http://www.newsobserver.com/2014/12/02/4371509_acc-gets-a-boost-from-big-ten.html?sp=/99/103/&rh=1

Summary:

New rankings are good for the ACC because they make it more likely the ACC gets a Citrus bid.

New rankings don't really affect Duke, since we're still probably in Tier 1. Giglio presumes that we're going to El Paso, although I don't know if I agree with that. Does Pinstripe want BC over Duke in particular?

Reilly
12-02-2014, 08:27 PM
We're in tier 1 under the old rankings.

We're in tier 1 without L'ville under the new rankings, so it does affect Duke.

How it could play out (assuming Clemson and L'ville to Orlando):

Pinstripe gets ND .... Charlotte (State), El Paso (BC), Nashville/Jax (Duke)

Charlotte gets ND .... Pinstripe (BC), El Paso (State?), Nashville/Jax (Duke)

El Paso gets ND .... Pinstripe (BC), Charlotte (State), Nashville/Jax (Duke)

Nashville/Jax gets ND ... Pinstripe (BC), Charlotte (State), El Paso (Duke)

.... maybe the Pinstripe really wants Duke over BC in these scenarios

... maybe if Charlotte gets ND, then Nashville/Jax wants State over us b/c they think it'll be a larger traveling fanbase ... .

We posted for Charlotte and ATL.

I really want Nashville/Jax over the others and hope Duke feels the same way and presses its case to get there.

OldPhiKap
12-02-2014, 08:31 PM
Espn ACC blog has us in Belk -- I think that is least likely of all. V(they have ND in Sun; I assume they guess that Sun wins the drawing?)

Duvall
12-02-2014, 08:32 PM
Espn ACC blog has us in Belk -- I think that is least likely of all. V(they have ND in Sun; I assume they guess that Sun wins the drawing?)

I honestly don't think that the ESPN blog has put that much thought into this. I doubt they even know about the drawing.

OldPhiKap
12-02-2014, 08:34 PM
I honestly don't think that the ESPN blog has put that much thought into this. I doubt they even know about the drawing.

Probably right, Duvall. I kinda think that Pinstripe or Sun are most likely; any thoughts?

Duvall
12-02-2014, 08:36 PM
Probably right, Duvall. I kinda think that Pinstripe or Sun are most likely; any thoughts?

The skinny seems to be that the Sun is most likely, followed by the cancellation of all bowl games due to national crisis, followed by the Pinstripe Bowl.

OldPhiKap
12-02-2014, 08:39 PM
The skinny seems to be that the Sun is most likely, followed by the cancellation of all bowl games due to national crisis, followed by the Pinstripe Bowl.

Lol. I would say that Wally Wade could host in case of national emergency like in 1941-2, but we screwed that up by tearing up the place!

Reilly
12-02-2014, 08:39 PM
??

espn projections show Miss St to Orange and no ACC teams in Citrus:

http://espn.go.com/college-football/bowls/projections

OldPhiKap
12-02-2014, 08:45 PM
??

espn projections show Miss St to Orange and no ACC teams in Citrus:

http://espn.go.com/college-football/bowls/projections

They are picking us to play either PSU in Pinstripe, or Utah in Sun:

http://espn.go.com/college-football/bowls/projections

uh_no
12-02-2014, 08:48 PM
Lol. I would say that Wally Wade could host in case of national emergency like in 1941-2, but we screwed that up by tearing up the place!

the Blue Devil Bulldozer Bowl!!!! sponsored by Caterpillar

Reilly
12-02-2014, 09:11 PM
??

espn projections show Miss St to Orange and no ACC teams in Citrus:

http://espn.go.com/college-football/bowls/projections

I emailed Brett McMurphy about the seeming mistake, who wrote back the following: "Yep. Made projections before I knew what rankings were. Thanks."

Reilly
12-03-2014, 09:45 AM
Kudos to Fox and Stewart, who have issued a revised projection given the ACC to the Citrus likelihood, and correspondingly shuffled a lot of the ACC teams' locations. Predicting Duke in Pinstripe, still, unfortunately.

http://www.foxsports.com/college-football/story/alabama-oregon-florida-state-baylor-final-bowl-projections-120214

Olympic Fan
12-03-2014, 12:53 PM
Kudos to Fox and Stewart, who have issued a revised projection given the ACC to the Citrus likelihood, and correspondingly shuffled a lot of the ACC teams' locations. Predicting Duke in Pinstripe, still, unfortunately.

http://www.foxsports.com/college-football/story/alabama-oregon-florida-state-baylor-final-bowl-projections-120214

I thought what was interesting about Mandel's picks is that he obviously thinks Georgia Tech is going to beat FSU in the ACC title game, since he bumps the Noles down to the Chick-fil-A Bwl.

That's okay. I find it amusing that so many of the ESPN talking heads keep picking against FSU -- there were supposed to lose to Clemson (without Winston), the unbeaten Notre Dame, at Louisville and even to Florida.

That's amusing, but what's not funny is that evey time FSU ends up winning, those same talking heads blast them for not wining big enough.

jimsumner
12-03-2014, 01:20 PM
I thought what was interesting about Mandel's picks is that he obviously thinks Georgia Tech is going to beat FSU in the ACC title game, since he bumps the Noles down to the Chick-fil-A Bwl.

That's okay. I find it amusing that so many of the ESPN talking heads keep picking against FSU -- there were supposed to lose to Clemson (without Winston), the unbeaten Notre Dame, at Louisville and even to Florida.

That's amusing, but what's not funny is that evey time FSU ends up winning, those same talking heads blast them for not wining big enough.

if Florida State barely beats GT, will they fall out of the playoffs?

Joking. Sort of.

Rarely, if ever, has an undefeated power-conference team gotten so little respect.

Olympic Fan
12-03-2014, 02:22 PM
if Florida State barely beats GT, will they fall out of the playoffs?

Joking. Sort of.

Rarely, if ever, has an undefeated power-conference team gotten so little respect.

The best record ... and the second-toughest schedule (among the contending teams).

Yeah, that sounds like the fourth seed.

OldPhiKap
12-03-2014, 02:29 PM
So, it seems that most pick us to either play PSU in NYC or Utah in ELP. Gotta start reading up on them, I guess.

Given our Bowl game in 2012 and ACC CG in 2013, Charlotte seems unlikely anyway.

Nashville would be fine, but I am happy to avoid an SEC team. Don't want Spurrier and USC; don't like our match-up with the Dawgs; and Tennessee would be a good pairing but they would have quite a home field advantage. Florida and Kurt Roper? That would be interesting.

But back to PSU and Utah, both are probably good matches for us:

TEAM -- PassYards -- RunYards -- PtsFor -- PtsAgainst
DUKE ----- 81st -------- 47th ------ 45th ------ 21st
PSU ------ 72nd ------- 119th ----- 115th ----- 9th
UTAH ---- 90th --------- 56th ------ 60th ------ 62nd

Per ESPN

As for FSU -- I imagine the drop to 4 is mainly to set up an Alabama - FSU game, and it helps FSU fans in that they don't have to fly to California one weekend and then travel to TX the next. If I were an FSU fan, I would prefer a drive over to Nawlin's.

Dev11
12-03-2014, 05:19 PM
Nashville would be fine, but I am happy to avoid an SEC team. Don't want Spurrier and USC; don't like our match-up with the Dawgs; and Tennessee would be a good pairing but they would have quite a home field advantage. Florida and Kurt Roper? That would be interesting.

The Tennessee vs. Cutcliffe and Friends storyline would be pretty juicy, for my money. It's probably even more interesting than the Spurrier story, since that chapter ended before any of the current players were born. As for Florida, Roper may well have a new job in a few days or weeks.

OldPhiKap
12-03-2014, 07:32 PM
http://espn.go.com/blog/acc/post/_/id/77974/biggest-disappointment-unc-or-miami

Devil in the Blue Dress
12-03-2014, 08:44 PM
http://espn.go.com/blog/acc/post/_/id/77974/biggest-disappointment-unc-or-miami

When the foundation is weak, it's hard find any strength.

-bdbd
12-03-2014, 11:46 PM
http://espn.go.com/blog/acc/post/_/id/77974/biggest-disappointment-unc-or-miami

Then again, what do those two "disappointments" have in common?
Ans: They both beat Duke. (So, I'm not going to throw too many darts, as good as it would feel in the case of NC@ch.)

ice-9
12-04-2014, 02:40 AM
if Florida State barely beats GT, will they fall out of the playoffs?

Joking. Sort of.

Rarely, if ever, has an undefeated power-conference team gotten so little respect.

A team which also happens to be the reigning national champion, with a Heisman trophy quarterback!

AustinDevil
12-04-2014, 10:49 AM
A team which also happens to be the reigning national champion, with a Heisman trophy quarterback!

I agree the committee's dissing of FSU is probably at an unprecedented level, especially ranking them all the way down to fourth.

The closest analogue I can even think of is 1982's 11-0-1 SMU. Even those Mustangs were ranked second, though, and had the tie with Arkansas counted against them. Very similar in terms of being graded down on style points due to tight wins over non-Top 25 foes.

Wander
12-04-2014, 11:03 AM
A team which also happens to be the reigning national champion, with a Heisman trophy quarterback!

But neither of these things matter. Last season was last season, and Winston is no where remotely close (and deservedly so) to being in the Heisman conversation this year. I mean, there's been a lot of criticism of our own Anthony Boone for poor throws this year, but he has thrown ten fewer interceptions than Winston.

Olympic Fan
12-04-2014, 11:10 AM
For those of you wondering about the bowl announcements, the ACC just announced that the official bowl announcements will be made Sunday at 5:30 p.m. and will be streamed live on the ACC website (theACC.com)

Of course, unofficial word may leak earlier in the day -- or, in the case of last year, misinformation may leak earlier in the day.

ice-9
12-04-2014, 11:48 AM
But neither of these things matter. Last season was last season, and Winston is no where remotely close (and deservedly so) to being in the Heisman conversation this year. I mean, there's been a lot of criticism of our own Anthony Boone for poor throws this year, but he has thrown ten fewer interceptions than Winston.

What does matter though? Interceptions, game control...the score board perhaps?

FSU hasn't looked great, I agree, but all things considered, I don't see how they aren't the top ranked team.

Reilly
12-04-2014, 11:50 AM
if Florida State barely beats GT, will they fall out of the playoffs?

Joking. Sort of.

Rarely, if ever, has an undefeated power-conference team gotten so little respect.


The best record ... and the second-toughest schedule (among the contending teams).

Yeah, that sounds like the fourth seed.


A team which also happens to be the reigning national champion, with a Heisman trophy quarterback!

FSU is not being judged all that harshly. They’re just not that good/dominant this year.

For the past 20 years, here are the undefeated teams. Their “SRS” from www.sports-reference.com is listed next, then where they rank in the country based on SRS number, then their final AP Top 25 ranking.

In general, everybody gets a boost for winning all their games – including this year’s FSU. But not everybody rockets to #1 just by winning all their games – including this year’s FSU. Qualitative distinctions are made even when dealing with an undefeated team.

2014 FSU – 15.39 srs -- #10 in the country – AP rank #2

2013 FSU – 23.36 srs -- #1 in the country – AP rank #1 *****

2012 Ohio State – 13.81 srs -- #13 in the country – AP rank #3

2010 Auburn – 20.66 srs -- #3 in the country – AP rank #1

2010 TCU – 17.96 srs -- #6 in the country – AP rank #2

2009 ALA – 23.69 srs - #1 in the country – AP rank #1 *****

2009 Boise – 13.50 srs - #11 in the country – AP rank #4

2008 Utah – 13.79 srs - #9 in the country – AP rank #2

2006 Boise – 14.65 srs -- #10 in the country – AP rank #5

2005 Texas – 24.98 srs -- #1 in the country – AP rank #1 *****

2004 USC – 26.06 srs -- #1 in the country – AP rank #1 *****

2004 Auburn – 19.86 srs -- #5 in the country – AP rank #2

2004 Utah – 21.76 srs -- #2 in the country – AP rank #4 (only team with lower AP rank than computer ranking)

2002 Ohio State – 18.13 srs -- #5 in the country – AP rank #1

2001 Miami – 26.17 srs -- #1 in the country – AP rank #1 ******

2000 Oklahoma – 21.56 srs -- #3 in the country -- AP rank #1

1999 FSU – 23.50 srs -- #1 in the country – AP rank #1 ******

1999 Marshall – 9.76 srs - #20 in the country – AP rank #10

1998 Tennessee – 19.96 srs -- #3 in the country – AP rank #1

1998 Tulane – 11.51 srs -- #23 in the country – AP rank #7 (biggest boost -- +16 spots – for being undefeated)

1997 Michigan – 20.14 srs -- #5 in the country – AP rank #1

1997 Nebraska – 22.30 srs -- #2 in the country – AP rank #2

1995 Nebraska – 26.86 srs -- #1 in the country – AP rank #1 *****

1995 Toledo – 5.73 srs -- #35 in the country – AP rank #24

Thoughts:

1. Last year’s FSU team is 8 points better than this year’s FSU team.

2. The combo of #1 in the computer rankings/#1 in the AP are the truly dominant teams: 1995 Nebraska, 1999 FSU, 2001 Miami, 2004 USC, 2005 Texas, 2009 Alabama, 2013 FSU.

3. This year’s FSU team (10th best in the country per the computer; 15.39 srs) is similar to 2012 Ohio State (AP #3), 2009 Boise (AP #4), 2008 Utah (AP #2), 2006 Boise (AP #5). So, FSU’s current #2 AP ranking and #4 CFP ranking is hardly out of whack.

4. Winning three tough games in a row (as FSU must do) is a longshot for any team. 12.5% odds if every game is a 50/50 proposition. FSU is the 10th best team in the country per the computer, so I’d peg their odds a bit lower.

budwom
12-04-2014, 11:58 AM
One wad of information I'd love to have (since schools aren't altogether passive in this bowl mania) is where would Kevin White and Cut want us to play?

We've got at least two schools of thought expressed on this and other boards. One is to go to the Pinstripe in front of a lot of alums (hopefully) and beat
a beatable but "name" program in Penn State. The other is to go to what is theoretically a more prestigious bowl, against the biggest name foe possible.

I happen to be in the former camp, but I'd love to know how White and Cutcliffe see this. To me, the most important thing is getting a win, so we can tell recruits we won
ten games (again) and won a bowl. But I guess I can see the merits of those who want to play a much tougher foe.

Either way, I like to know what our AD thinks...

Reilly
12-04-2014, 12:19 PM
... Rarely, if ever, has an undefeated power-conference team gotten so little respect.


...

2014 FSU – 15.39 srs -- #10 in the country – AP rank #2

2012 Ohio State – 13.81 srs -- #13 in the country – AP rank #3

2010 TCU – 17.96 srs -- #6 in the country – AP rank #2

2004 Auburn – 19.86 srs -- #5 in the country – AP rank #2

2002 Ohio State – 18.13 srs -- #5 in the country – AP rank #1

1997 Michigan – 20.14 srs -- #5 in the country – AP rank #1



In the past 20 years, only 2012 Ohio State was an undefeated power conference team with FSU's metrics. FSU is #10 in the country right now per the computer. The only undefeated power conference team ranking that low in the past 20 years is the 2012 Ohio State team at #13. (I wasn't sure if 2010 TCU is a power conference team or not.) It goes to show what FSU is doing is unprecedented in the sense of surviving a power conference schedule unscathed without being a top 5 team in the country per the computers (Ohio State did it in 2012).

Wander
12-04-2014, 01:55 PM
What does matter though? Interceptions, game control...the score board perhaps?

FSU hasn't looked great, I agree, but all things considered, I don't see how they aren't the top ranked team.

I completely agree it doesn't, or at least shouldn't, matter for the purposes of rankings. You brought up the Heisman quarterback thing as a reason that FSU should get respect - I was just saying that doesn't make sense to me, as Winston is nowhere near a Heisman level quarterback this season.

They're not the top ranked team for the same reason that Wichita State wasn't the overall #1 seed last year. Obviously, WSU's basketball schedule was worse than FSU's football schedule, but it is the exact same principle.

OldPhiKap
12-04-2014, 02:03 PM
One wad of information I'd love to have (since schools aren't altogether passive in this bowl mania) is where would Kevin White and Cut want us to play?

We've got at least two schools of thought expressed on this and other boards. One is to go to the Pinstripe in front of a lot of alums (hopefully) and beat
a beatable but "name" program in Penn State. The other is to go to what is theoretically a more prestigious bowl, against the biggest name foe possible.

I happen to be in the former camp, but I'd love to know how White and Cutcliffe see this. To me, the most important thing is getting a win, so we can tell recruits we won
ten games (again) and won a bowl. But I guess I can see the merits of those who want to play a much tougher foe.

Either way, I like to know what our AD thinks...

I am curious myself. It is hard to tell what leaked "information" is correct though, as we saw last year.

budwom
12-04-2014, 02:07 PM
So if the Russell AB foe is likely to be Kansas State or Oklahoma, I'll take the Pinstripe vs. Penn State, thank you.

Would Cut really prefer to play Kansas State?

-bdbd
12-05-2014, 12:08 AM
I agree the committee's dissing of FSU is probably at an unprecedented level, especially ranking them all the way down to fourth.

The closest analogue I can even think of is 1982's 11-0-1 SMU. Even those Mustangs were ranked second, though, and had the tie with Arkansas counted against them. Very similar in terms of being graded down on style points due to tight wins over non-Top 25 foes.


That "lack of respect" is one thing driving me to think that FSU, finally, plays angry and focused Sat. night, pounding GT to the turf. I wouldn't be shocked to see a margin as big as the one against Duke in Charlotte last year. (Not saying it is going to happen, just that FSU should be really motivated for this game.)

FWIW, on the Sports Center/ESPN show around this Tuesday's unveiling of the committee's championship playoff rankings, they had the Chairman of the committee on the show. One question that he was asked early-on was, essentially, "We were surprised to see TCU leapfrog FSU this week. How close is FSU to the third-place Horned Frogs? Or, should they worry about dropping even further?" The response made it pretty clear that FSU was a lot closer to third than to #5 OSU. So it doesn't seem likely, at all, that FSU can drop out of 4th w/o losing to GT (and that was going to drop them out of the top four regardless). So the ultimate impact, really, appears to just move them from playing Oregon in Pasadena, to playing Bama in New Orleans. Their fanbase might actually prefer playing near home in the Sugar Bowl, especially since there may not be a huge perceived difference between playing Oregon and playing the Tide. :)

budwom
12-05-2014, 08:14 AM
Supporting the theory that a lot of people are just going with hunches or making stuff up (WRG to bowl destinations) some of those confident of Duke to the Sun Bowl are
performing wafflage. (Hello Mr. Giglio)....Still no info on what White and Cutcliffe think, but I see the Pinstripe as a much better opportunity (good shot at winning) vs.
playing K-State or Oklahoma in the middle of javelina country. All shall be revealed soon. Beginning to wonder about level of coat required should Pinstripe be the bowl, am thinking
of going with the DEFCON 1 Antarctica model in the back of the closet....

devildeac
12-05-2014, 08:20 AM
Supporting the theory that a lot of people are just going with hunches or making stuff up (WRG to bowl destinations) some of those confident of Duke to the Sun Bowl are
performing wafflage. (Hello Mr. Giglio)....Still no info on what White and Cutcliffe think, but I see the Pinstripe as a much better opportunity (good shot at winning) vs.
playing K-State or Oklahoma in the middle of javelina country. All shall be revealed soon. Beginning to wonder about level of coat required should Pinstripe be the bowl, am thinking
of going with the DEFCON 1 Antarctica model in the back of the closet....

If it's the Pinstripe Bowl, I'll be going with the Toshiba remote in my right hand, an iced tea in my left hand as I wear the old CFA Bowl shirt from last year, a pair of jeans and a Duke sweatshirt as I watch from my sofa. I'm working that weekend so no travel for the devildeac clan.

kingboozer
12-05-2014, 08:39 AM
I know we are beyond its range but you think the Military Bowl could invite us so that I can attend without much travel, or not so much?:cool:

duke blue brewcrew
12-05-2014, 10:31 AM
So if the Russell AB foe is likely to be Kansas State or Oklahoma, I'll take the Pinstripe vs. Penn State, thank you.

Would Cut really prefer to play Kansas State?

I hear you, we all want to see our boys get that first win in a bowl game. I know Duke theoretically would have strong fan support in NY, so the Pinstripe Bowl makes a lot of sense. That said, the Blue Devils fell three points shy of a win last year against mighty Texas A&M. The Aggies were stocked with players now in the NFL, and Duke SHOULD have won that game. So, my thoughts are...If you asked Coach Cut who he'd rather play, I'm betting the competitor in him would say to put Duke in the biggest bowl against the best team and "Let's get after it!" After all what's a better recruiting tool -to say you won the smaller bowl against a "lesser opponent, or that you won the bigger bowl against the "big time program"? Either way, I'll be cheering them on to victory. It's truly a breath of fresh air in a new world when Blue Devil fans are debating on WHICH bowl Duke should go to. My how times have changed for the better!

duke blue brewcrew
12-05-2014, 12:37 PM
So if the Russell AB foe is likely to be Kansas State or Oklahoma, I'll take the Pinstripe vs. Penn State, thank you.

Would Cut really prefer to play Kansas State?

I hear you, we all want to see our boys get that first win in a bowl game. I know Duke theoretically would have strong fan support in NY, so the Pinstripe Bowl makes a lot of sense. That said, the Blue Devils fell three points shy of a win last year against mighty Texas A&M. The Aggies were stocked with players now in the NFL, and Duke SHOULD have won that game. So, my thoughts are...If you asked Coach Cut who he'd rather play, I'm betting the competitor in him would say to put Duke in the biggest bowl against the best team and "Let's get after it!" After all what's a better recruiting tool -to say you won the smaller bowl against a "lesser opponent", or that you won the bigger bowl against the "big time program"? Either way, I'll be cheering them on to victory. It's truly a breath of fresh air in a new world when Blue Devil fans are debating on WHICH bowl Duke should go to. My how times have changed for the better!

burnspbesq
12-06-2014, 11:29 AM
I'm sure the Pinstripe Bowl would love to have a Duke - Penn State matchup; both schools have major fan support in the NY area.

For those of us who have sworn on the graves of our grandfathers to never set foot in That Place, it presents a problem.

budwom
12-06-2014, 12:57 PM
I'm sure the Pinstripe Bowl would love to have a Duke - Penn State matchup; both schools have major fan support in the NY area.

For those of us who have sworn on the graves of our grandfathers to never set foot in That Place, it presents a problem.

Well, it's a New That Place for what it's worth. My father (and grandfather) took me many times to the Old That Place for the express purpose of rooting against the despised Jankees. I always
liked it there for that reason. So I can easily rationalize my presence.

There seems to be even more buzz about Duke to the Pinstripe today, though I have no idea how much of this to believe.

ice-9
12-06-2014, 03:30 PM
I completely agree it doesn't, or at least shouldn't, matter for the purposes of rankings. You brought up the Heisman quarterback thing as a reason that FSU should get respect - I was just saying that doesn't make sense to me, as Winston is nowhere near a Heisman level quarterback this season.

They're not the top ranked team for the same reason that Wichita State wasn't the overall #1 seed last year. Obviously, WSU's basketball schedule was worse than FSU's football schedule, but it is the exact same principle.

Strength of schedule isn't linear though -- there's such a thing as "good enough," no?

nmduke2001
12-06-2014, 09:37 PM
If Duke plays in the Sun Bowl, I'll make the short drive down to see it in person. If they play elsewhere, I'll sit on my couch and watch.

YmoBeThere
12-06-2014, 09:52 PM
If Duke plays in the Sun Bowl, I'll make the short drive down to see it in person. If they play elsewhere, I'll sit on my couch and watch.

If Duke plays in the Sun Bowl, I'll make the not so short drive from San Antonio to see the game in person. If they go elsewhere TV it is.

OldPhiKap
12-06-2014, 10:51 PM
well, FSU did what they had to -- helps the ACC and Duke.

Reilly
12-07-2014, 02:01 AM
Duke/Oklahoma in Russell Athletic Bowl ... Clemson to Citrus ... L'ville to Gator

http://q.usatoday.com/2014/12/07/bowl-projections-college-football-playoff-tcu-ohio-state-baylor/

CameronBlue
12-07-2014, 03:07 AM
Duke/Oklahoma in Russell Athletic Bowl ... Clemson to Citrus ... L'ville to Gator

http://q.usatoday.com/2014/12/07/bowl-projections-college-football-playoff-tcu-ohio-state-baylor/

I'll gladly sacrifice a slice of Ray's original for a trip to the RAB. Oklahoma is still a name, a big big name. I realize it belies an extremely myopic and superficial take on the matter but honestly I'm just not ready to forgive Penn State or its fans for the Sandusky affair, which should really be known as the Paterno Coverup.

Devilwin
12-07-2014, 05:21 AM
Regardless of which bowl we get, I want to see us play a big name football school. Oklahoma or Penn State would be great. A win over either would boost our prestige.:cool:

CameronBornAndBred
12-07-2014, 07:20 AM
Regardless of which bowl we get, I want to see us play a big name football school. Oklahoma or Penn State would be great. A win over either would boost our prestige.:cool:
Don't know about boosting it, but it would be a nice step in getting some!:)

budwom
12-07-2014, 08:54 AM
Regardless of which bowl we get, I want to see us play a big name football school. Oklahoma or Penn State would be great. A win over either would boost our prestige.:cool:

I understand the two schools of thought on all this. I'd much prefer to see us play beatable Penn St. than take on an Oklahoma team I just don't think we can compete with.

Daddylawman
12-07-2014, 10:17 AM
I understand the two schools of thought on all this. I'd much prefer to see us play beatable Penn St. than take on an Oklahoma team I just don't think we can compete with.

We can beat Oklahoma - this sounds like some of the talk from last year and the Chik-Fil-A was a boost, even though we ultimately lost.

I say we whoop some Sooner butt

budwom
12-07-2014, 11:35 AM
We can beat Oklahoma - this sounds like some of the talk from last year and the Chik-Fil-A was a boost, even though we ultimately lost.

I say we whoop some Sooner butt

Except (as some have pointed out on various boards) if you look at Sagarin and other rankings, we're much bigger underdogs vs. Oklahoma now than we were vs. A&M last year. Much bigger.

OldPhiKap
12-07-2014, 11:38 AM
Except (as some have pointed out on various boards) if you look at Sagarin and other rankings, we're much bigger underdogs vs. Oklahoma now than we were vs. A&M last year. Much bigger.

I have to think that Russell would take Louisville over us so I think it's a moot point.

Personally, I am fine with Penn St. In NYC -- probably a good chance to win, a good opponent, and good fan turnout for Duke.

richardjackson199
12-07-2014, 12:03 PM
I have to think that Russell would take Louisville over us so I think it's a moot point.

Personally, I am fine with Penn St. In NYC -- probably a good chance to win, a good opponent, and good fan turnout for Duke.

All things equal Russell would take Louisville over Duke. But how important is it that Louisville was in Russell last year and bowls don't usually take same team 2 years in a row? I don't know how much of a factor that really is.

OldPhiKap
12-07-2014, 12:08 PM
All things equal Russell would take Louisville over Duke. But how important is it that Louisville was in Russell last year and bowls don't usually take same team 2 years in a row? I don't know how much of a factor that really is.

Wood point, didn't realize they were there last year. I think bowls like to avoid it because it hurts the draw.

Tripping William
12-07-2014, 12:33 PM
Am I now free to cheer actively against those sleazebags Jameis & Jimbo?

Devilwin
12-07-2014, 12:42 PM
I understand the two schools of thought on all this. I'd much prefer to see us play beatable Penn St. than take on an Oklahoma team I just don't think we can compete with.

I sort of agree with you, but then who would have thought a mediocre Virginia Tech would beat OSU? So, anything can happen. That being said, it would be nice to win a bowl game, and Penn State would surely be easier, albeit not a sacrificial lamb.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
12-07-2014, 01:16 PM
Am I now free to cheer actively against those sleazebags Jameis & Jimbo?

I started a thread on that a few weeks ago and got very divided reactions.

Eager to see where Duke lands. Will also root heartily for Jameis to get his comeuppance early in 2015.

budwom
12-07-2014, 01:21 PM
I sort of agree with you, but then who would have thought a mediocre Virginia Tech would beat OSU? So, anything can happen. That being said, it would be nice to win a bowl game, and Penn State would surely be easier, albeit not a sacrificial lamb.

I hear ya, anything is possible....but you have to remember OSU had just lost their starting QB, which provides at least some excuse.

I can't imagine a sizeable Duke turnout in El Paso...I mentioned that venue to my wife and she asked me why anyone would travel that far to get there.

YmoBeThere
12-07-2014, 01:38 PM
I hear ya, anything is possible....but you have to remember OSU had just lost their starting QB, which provides at least some excuse.

I can't imagine a sizeable Duke turnout in El Paso...I mentioned that venue to my wife and she asked me why anyone would travel that far to get there.

Not all the world resides on the East Coast and while NYC at Christmas has its charm, I've been there done that and will take the likely better weather in Texas 7 days a week and twice on Sunday.

Reilly
12-07-2014, 01:57 PM
Miss St above Mich St

JohnJ
12-07-2014, 01:59 PM
Not all the world resides on the East Coast and while NYC at Christmas has its charm, I've been there done that and will take the likely better weather in Texas 7 days a week and twice on Sunday.

I could not have said it better.

duke09hms
12-07-2014, 02:07 PM
I could not have said it better.

So you would prefer Duke play in front of extremely few Duke fans in warm El Paso instead of hordes of rowdy noisy Duke fans in cold NYC?

I'm clearly biased, as I live 1-2 hours away from NYC, but that's the reality of the situation.
When Stanford made the Sun Bowl in the Harbaugh era, it was sparsely attended by Stanford fans, and El Paso is way closer to the Cali Stanford fanbase.

Duvall
12-07-2014, 02:12 PM
So you would prefer Duke play in front of extremely few Duke fans in warm El Paso instead of hordes of rowdy noisy Duke fans in cold NYC?

I'm clearly biased, as I live 1-2 hours away from NYC, but that's the reality of the situation.
When Stanford made the Sun Bowl in the Harbaugh era, it was sparsely attended by Stanford fans, and El Paso is way closer to the Cali Stanford fanbase.

Also, El Paso isn't warm. Warmer than the South Bronx, but still.

Olympic Fan
12-07-2014, 02:20 PM
well, Mississippi State got the spot in the Orange Bowl, instead of a Big Ten team, That knocks the ACC out of the Citrus Bowl.

I'm still hoping for the Russell (in case the bowl doesn't want Louisville for a second straight year)m but I understand that's a long, long shot.

After that, I want the Music City Bowl.

I don't give any credence to the clowns saying it's down to the Pinstripe or Sun. They don't know what they're talking about. Kind of like Laura this time last year -- those idiots have NO inside sources.

Of course, there's about a 50 percent chance they're right -- the odds are its a Tier One Bowl and those are two of the four. But it's equally likely hat it will be the Music City or the Belk Bowl.

we'll know in about two hours!

budwom
12-07-2014, 02:28 PM
Good info, but I still haven't seen the slightest indication as to where Cut and White might be wanting to go, where they might be focusing their lobbying efforts.

Deep dark mystery for two more hours I guess...

YmoBeThere
12-07-2014, 02:31 PM
So you would prefer Duke play in front of extremely few Duke fans in warm El Paso instead of hordes of rowdy noisy Duke fans in cold NYC?

I'm clearly biased, as I live 1-2 hours away from NYC, but that's the reality of the situation.
When Stanford made the Sun Bowl in the Harbaugh era, it was sparsely attended by Stanford fans, and El Paso is way closer to the Cali Stanford fanbase.

I lived in Boston for several years when we played in the NCAA Men's basketball tournament and the Men's LAX team was in their Final Four. We were grossly outnumbered in both cases(yes, I was at both). Why would it be any different in the NY metro area? We don't have hordes of rowdy fans relative to the schools we are competing with, such is the nature of a private school with class sizes around 1,500 per year. If we were to play AZ State as one person has projected on ESPN, we would be grossly outnumbered. So, yes, I'll take a game I will attend with afternoon temperatures on average 16 degrees warmer than afternoon temps in NYC.

duke09hms
12-07-2014, 02:42 PM
I lived in Boston for several years when we played in the NCAA Men's basketball tournament and the Men's LAX team was in their Final Four. We were grossly outnumbered in both cases(yes, I was at both). Why would it be any different in the NY metro area? We don't have hordes of rowdy fans relative to the schools we are competing with, such is the nature of a private school with class sizes around 1,500 per year. If we were to play AZ State as one person has projected on ESPN, we would be grossly outnumbered. So, yes, I'll take a game I will attend with afternoon temperatures on average 16 degrees warmer than afternoon temps in NYC.

I get that comparison with lacrosse, but it's not the best one when we have 2 recent football comparisons. Charlotte and Atlanta had amazing Duke turnouts in that we had significantly more support than Cincinnati and were at least even with Texas AM if not more. If the bowl game is nearby, Duke fans will come out for it.

16 degrees doesn't seem as important as the ~2000 miles from the major Duke fanbases on the East Coast. Also, people are much more willing to travel to NYC instead of El Paso, that's just the reality.

Location, location, location. I wish our fanbase was rabid enough to sell-out El Paso, but there's very few programs that can, and we aren't there yet and might never be.

richardjackson199
12-07-2014, 02:49 PM
well, Mississippi State got the spot in the Orange Bowl, instead of a Big Ten team, That knocks the ACC out of the Citrus Bowl.

I'm still hoping for the Russell (in case the bowl doesn't want Louisville for a second straight year)m but I understand that's a long, long shot.

After that, I want the Music City Bowl.

I don't give any credence to the clowns saying it's down to the Pinstripe or Sun. They don't know what they're talking about. Kind of like Laura this time last year -- those idiots have NO inside sources.

Of course, there's about a 50 percent chance they're right -- the odds are its a Tier One Bowl and those are two of the four. But it's equally likely hat it will be the Music City or the Belk Bowl.

we'll know in about two hours!

Yep - no way we beat out Clemson for Russell

YmoBeThere
12-07-2014, 02:54 PM
I get that comparison with lacrosse, but it's not the best one when we have 2 recent football comparisons. Charlotte and Atlanta had amazing Duke turnouts in that we had significantly more support than Cincinnati and were at least even with Texas AM if not more. If the bowl game is nearby, Duke fans will come out for it.

16 degrees doesn't seem as important as the ~2000 miles from the major Duke fanbases on the East Coast. Also, people are much more willing to travel to NYC instead of El Paso, that's just the reality.

Location, location, location. I wish our fanbase was rabid enough to sell-out El Paso, but there's very few programs that can, and we aren't there yet and might never be.

I agree wholeheartedly that a NC or GA location would help our attendance significantly...maybe even northern Florida would have similar impact. Get much further away and I think the numbers will drop off significantly. And yes, more are likely attend in NYC if that is where we go, but I won't be one of them. So, yes, I'm speaking my book when I say I would like to see us playing in the Sun Bowl as I will be able to attend(I haven't been able to attend an event local to me since the 2010 title game when I lived in Cincinnati.).

Reilly
12-07-2014, 02:54 PM
Brandon Connette to Hawaii bowl ...

Brett McMurphy ‏@McMurphyESPN 1m1 minute ago
Fresno State vs. Rice in Hawaii Bowl

richardjackson199
12-07-2014, 03:05 PM
Whoever pulled off our schedule for this year is a genius. We literally only beat 2 bowl eligible teams this year, and we were one 40 yd Ross Martin fg at home -- away from making the Orange Bowl vs. Mississippi State.

Our nonconferance foes had records of 1-11; 3-9; 3-9; and 3-9.
Our Atlantic division foes - 3-9 and 3-9.

I loved the strategy. We're not putting many 3, 4, and 5 star recruits out there, yet. This is definitely working to try to build and elevate our program. We need wins, and then we need to rise to the occasion in a big game. We're capable of doing that as we did this year at Ga Tech and last year vs. Texas A & M. In Cut I trust.

Duvall
12-07-2014, 03:09 PM
Whoever pulled off our schedule for this year is a genius. We literally only beat 2 bowl eligible teams this year, and we were one 40 yd Ross Martin fg at home -- away from making the Orange Bowl vs. Mississippi State.


Russell Athletic Bowl. Georgia Tech probably passes Duke after the UNC loss and Georgia win.

duke09hms
12-07-2014, 03:12 PM
Russell Athletic Bowl. Georgia Tech probably passes Duke after the UNC loss and Georgia win.

Nah, win one of UNC/VT, and we make the ACC Championship game. Loser of the ACC Championship game guaranteed Orange Bowl, no?

OldPhiKap
12-07-2014, 03:16 PM
Nah, win one of UNC/VT, and we make the ACC Championship game. Loser of the ACC Championship game guaranteed Orange Bowl, no?

I don't think so. Winner goes there unless in playoffs, otherwise they get to pick "the next best" ( With ND having some additional restrictions on jumping teams).

richardjackson199
12-07-2014, 03:23 PM
Russell Athletic Bowl. Georgia Tech probably passes Duke after the UNC loss and Georgia win.

Maybe. Georgia Tech also lost to UNC. They had a squeaker over Georgia Southern and the Georgia win was improbable. Our head to head win at Georgia Tech would have helped break that tie. (I don't think losing to undefeated FSU in championship game would have been held against us if we had been somewhat competitive. I think we would have since almost everybody was somewhat competitive vs. FSU this year). I think Duke would have looked sexy to a big bowl like Orange going against big SEC opponent and Dak after the game we gave last year vs. Johnny Football. We were pretty close, anyway.

duke09hms
12-07-2014, 03:30 PM
Maybe. Georgia Tech also lost to UNC. They had a squeaker over Georgia Southern and the Georgia win was improbable. Our head to head win at Georgia Tech would have helped break that tie. (I don't think losing to undefeated FSU in championship game would have been held against us if we had been somewhat competitive. I think we would have since almost everybody was somewhat competitive vs. FSU this year). I think Duke would have looked sexy to a big bowl like Orange going against big SEC opponent and Dak after the game we gave last year vs. Johnny Football. We were pretty close, anyway.

If Duke made the Orange Bowl, we would have been the clear outlier among Power 5 teams in the New Years Bowls. Our only chance to break our 50+ year bowl winless streak would be if Miss St. REALLY REALLY did not care.

Texas AM was ranked around the same as Duke in the 20s, and we all knew their defense was there for the taking. We'd likely be victims of a blowout loss in this year's Orange Bowl.

richardjackson199
12-07-2014, 03:37 PM
If Duke made the Orange Bowl, we would have been the clear outlier among Power 5 teams in the New Years Bowls. Our only chance to break our 50+ year bowl winless streak would be if Miss St. REALLY REALLY did not care.

Texas AM was ranked around the same as Duke in the 20s, and we all knew their defense was there for the taking. We'd likely be victims of a blowout loss in this year's Orange Bowl.

I don't disagree with much of that. But Cut is an excellent coach, and given lots of time to prepare for Mississippi State - you never know - Duke might have given them another fun game. Even if we suffered a blowout loss, I think that would have been far superior to winning for example the Pinstripe this year vs. Penn State (which is a game we could also lose).

Going to the ACC championship 2 years in a row. Peach Bowl vs. Johnny Football, then Orange Bowl vs. Dak. ACC Coastal Division champions 2 years in a row. Wow - that would have been monumental for our recruiting. To me - that would have been worth not likely winning the bowl game this year.

But obviously at this point we need to win our bowl game this year.

loran16
12-07-2014, 03:43 PM
ESPN's McMurphy is reporting BC vs Penn State in pinstripe and Duke v Pac 12 in Sun Bowl.

He's pretty much usually on point. That would almost certainly have us vs Arizona State.

Duvall
12-07-2014, 03:45 PM
Crooked-I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this. system run by crooked-I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this. crooks.

sagegrouse
12-07-2014, 03:46 PM
ESPN's McMurphy is reporting BC vs Penn State in pinstripe and Duke v Pac 12 in Sun Bowl.

He's pretty much usually on point. That would almost certainly have us vs Arizona State.

Devils vs. Devils -- it's too tempting to pass up.

duke09hms
12-07-2014, 03:46 PM
ESPN's McMurphy is reporting BC vs Penn State in pinstripe and Duke v Pac 12 in Sun Bowl.

He's pretty much usually on point. That would almost certainly have us vs Arizona State.

Oh God, would not want to see our defense against the ASU offense, could easily see us get lit up by bombs in the passing game over and over. Like the UNC offense but better.
Maybe they won't care, and we'll win.

If it's the Sun Bowl, Utah would be a much preferable opponent. I've seen them in the running elsewhere.

Actually, just checked: ASU offense is ranked 35th. For some reason, I always thought they had super-explosive gunner offenses.

Duvall
12-07-2014, 03:52 PM
College football: Run by brands, for brands. What a joke.

OldPhiKap
12-07-2014, 03:58 PM
Since no one knows who won the drawing for ND, anyone's speculation is as good as mine. So -- it's PsU in the Pinstripe.

AncientPsychicT
12-07-2014, 04:01 PM
ESPN's McMurphy is reporting BC vs Penn State in pinstripe and Duke v Pac 12 in Sun Bowl.

He's pretty much usually on point. That would almost certainly have us vs Arizona State.

Honestly, I don't know why people expected anything different, especially once Mississippi State got the Orange. Other than the ~25% chance the Sun Bowl landed Notre Dame, it was pretty obvious we were gonna head there. Look at it from the bowl and conference officials' POV: Duke = fanbase that won't travel to the bowl no matter what; Sun = bowl fanbases won't travel to no matter what. Of course they put us there, might as well minimize your losses right? :mad: :mad:

Ymobethere, you go' be there, yeah? You better. We need at least one fan on TV.

duke09hms
12-07-2014, 04:05 PM
Honestly, I don't know why people expected anything different, especially once Mississippi State got the Orange. Other than the ~25% chance the Sun Bowl landed Notre Dame, it was pretty obvious we were gonna head there. Look at it from the bowl and conference officials' POV: Duke = fanbase that won't travel to the bowl no matter what; Sun = bowl fanbases won't travel to no matter what. Of course they put us there, might as well minimize your losses right? :mad: :mad:

The bold has been proven untrue the last two years. And apparently the Peach Bowl last year didn't believe it, so why not the Pinstripe Bowl, a bowl of far less significance than the Peach Bowl.

Duvall
12-07-2014, 04:07 PM
The bold has been proven untrue the last two years. And apparently the Peach Bowl last year didn't believe it, so why not the Pinstripe Bowl, a bowl of far less significance than the Peach Bowl.

Running a bowl game doesn't require paying attention to reality. It's a scam that doesn't even require you to be smart.

duke09hms
12-07-2014, 04:09 PM
Since no one knows who won the drawing for ND, anyone's speculation is as good as mine. So -- it's PsU in the Pinstripe.

Looks like Music City Bowl did. ND playing LSU in Nashville.

budwom
12-07-2014, 04:10 PM
I suspect he was being ironic...

Duke fans have shown they are willing to travel, but El Paso is going to minimize our attendance. But we'll buy a lot of tickets

duke09hms
12-07-2014, 04:12 PM
Running a bowl game doesn't require paying attention to reality. It's a scam that doesn't even require you to be smart.

Yeah I get that, but last year's example of Peach Bowl choosing Duke seemed to bode well for a lesser bowl that made sense for us.

Duke won't come close to selling out its allotment of Sun Bowl tickets, giving ammo to future haters and making the two previous years' of sellouts easy to ignore.

budwom
12-07-2014, 04:15 PM
Yeah I get that, but last year's example of Peach Bowl choosing Duke seemed to bode well for a lesser bowl that made sense for us.

Duke won't come close to selling out its allotment of Sun Bowl tickets, giving ammo to future haters and making the two previous years' of sellouts easy to ignore.

We might (emphasis) buy a lot of tickets, but attendance is not going to be great. El Paso?

duke09hms
12-07-2014, 04:16 PM
We might (emphasis) buy a lot of tickets, but attendance is not going to be great. El Paso?

Still holding out hope that this is Laura Keeley 2.0 ...

CameronBornAndBred
12-07-2014, 04:18 PM
Texas will be as warm on my couch as NYC was going to be.


For those interested, full list of bowls as they are filled here. http://www.ncaa.com/sports/football/bowls

sagegrouse
12-07-2014, 04:19 PM
If it's Arizona State, the Sun Devils on campus get to travel 424 miles on I-10. The Duke in Durham fan base gets to travel 1,799 miles.

CameronBornAndBred
12-07-2014, 04:22 PM
What I DO like...Arizona State is ranked 15th. Let's beat 'em.