Inside Duke Basketball practice notes

[riverside6]

I had the chance, thanks to an awesome brother who hooked me up, to attend the Inside Duke Basketball practice today. I typed up some very scattered thoughts on practice over at my website.

You can read the article here:

http://www.scacchoops.com/duke-basketball-practice-notes-101714

[devildeac]

I had the chance, thanks to an awesome brother who hooked me up, to attend the Inside Duke Basketball practice today. I typed up some very scattered thoughts on practice over at my website.

You can read the article here:

http://www.scacchoops.com/duke-basketball-practice-notes-101714

Great to read. Thanks for sharing! Congrats on getting into that practice.

[roywhite]

riverside,

Thanks very much for the report. Always interesting to hear some first-person observations as we get close to the season.

Great to read your comments on Okafor, and very interesting discussion with Coach K and Ojeleye

[Dev11]

It's pretty fair to assume from this one practice that Matt and Justise will be starting over Rasheed and Quinn, right? Good, we can put that speculation to rest.

In all seriousness, I enjoyed that piece. Nothing like actual visual accounts of Duke Basketball to keep the masses entertained between football games.

[riverside6]

It's pretty fair to assume from this one practice that Matt and Justise will be starting over Rasheed and Quinn, right? Good, we can put that speculation to rest.

In all seriousness, I enjoyed that piece. Nothing like actual visual accounts of Duke Basketball to keep the masses entertained between football games.

I think if nothing else, it speaks to the focus on defense.

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

Love the stuff about Amile. K has always put a premium on communication on the defensive end. If Amile can take ownership and bring the rest of the fellas along with him, that'll be absolutely huge for us.

[mo.st.dukie]

Sounds like the coaching staff is really challenging Rasheed. We know he was on the blue team the first day of practice and in this practice he never put on the white jersey despite his hard work and good play, if he's going to start he'll have earned it. That's a good thing, he's got all the necessary talent and perhaps getting pushed like this will help him to put it all together. Or maybe he really will be a supersub and one of the best 6th man in America.

And that's exactly what I am expecting Amile to be, highly important to the team especially on defense yet not putting up huge numbers.

[subzero02]

I think Amile and maybe Justise will be our glue guys this year... Someone needs to fill the void left by Thornton.

[Newton_14]

I had the chance, thanks to an awesome brother who hooked me up, to attend the Inside Duke Basketball practice today. I typed up some very scattered thoughts on practice over at my website.

You can read the article here:

http://www.scacchoops.com/duke-basketball-practice-notes-101714
Really great write up Riverside! Thanks for doing that and for sharing the link to your site with the DBR community. Greatly appreciated! I loved the detailed notes. Gave us a good idea of where the guys are at right now. The only downside is Semi not getting it yet on defense. If that kid ever learns how to use that great size, strength, and athletic ability he is going to be a beast. I hope is patient enough to stick it out all 4 years at Duke, should he not progress enough to crack the rotation this year. Many a player over K's 30+ teams has come on in their Junior and Senior years and became solid contributors as upperclassmen after riding the pine as underclassmen. Marty Clark is the gold standard in that regard in my mind, but many others have followed the same path. Praying Semi is added to that list.

Excited about the reports on the other guys. Even MP3. Hate he struggles with touch around the basket, but Mason did too early on before becoming really good with righty and lefty jumphooks and the righty sky hook. I agree with you that he has all the tools to be a great player if he can slow down and develop some touch around the hoop. Looking for big things from him before the final chapter is written on his career.

This can be a really strong team if they end up being a solid to really good defensive team, and like Kedsy opined in the Phase thread, defense at Duke is a team thing. 5 guys working together to get stops. Let's hope K molds them into a strong defensive squad with an identity as strong team defensively. They are going to score in bunches, that much I am convinced of.

Thanks again. Great stuff.

Anyone know if they will be having an open practice this season like they did the past few years? I always enjoy going to those.

[riverside6]

Anyone know if they will be having an open practice this season like they did the past few years? I always enjoy going to those.

Yep, open practice is on Nov 1. More here (http://www.goduke.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_LANG=C&ATCLID=209722289&DB_OEM_ID=4200).

[tfk53]

I also made it to the practice today. Kudos to riverside6 for his astute comments as well as posting is so darn fast! Agree with all his thoughts. This old guy doesn't get with his computer that quickly! Will add some comments.

After the practice, there was a gathering in Scharf Hall - video about the great work Emily K center is doing. it got some more money out of me, I must say.
Then Coach talked about his team as well as the USA team experience.
I asked about how Q and Tyus were doing. There were several times in practice where Q would talk to him about things. Coach said the hardest transition for a point was the speed of the game. Said Tyus was still focusing on getting into the forecourt, close to top of the key. Much harder for him at this level than in high school. Because of this, he is still not seeing the entire front court as well as he did in HS. Making progress, he is, but will continue to improve in this regard. An aspect I had not heard expressed so succinctly and clearly before.
Coach felt the biggest transition for the bigs was in the physicality of the college game.

He talked about the USA team. Showed some of the videos that they used to motivate players. Very moving.

He said the principles the USA team used were:
1. Don't pace
2. Share
3. Pressure on the ball
4. Rebounding - both on O and D.

Said he will be trying to get his young team to integrate these principles as much as possible. Sounds like he wants to pressure the other teams in a large way altho did not say he would do full court pressure all the time

Rasheed practiced intensely altho not hitting much from outside. he did seem to get down on himself more frequently than the others but continued to be aggressive. He appears to be in great physical condition.

Coach made a point of with only 10 scholarship players, he is not able to substitute in practice. As noted, once they got to the scrimmage, Obi did not enter. Coach felt he could get as much out of 90 minutes with 10 players as in 120 minutes with 13 players. Downside is that he does not see what substituting fresh folks will be like. Said he will have to wait to games for that.

Coach harped on talking and communicating throughout the practice. One time, MP was communicating loudly but was not saying the right thing which brought a prompt correction. Said they are still looking to define the leader(s) on this team. He seemed confident that this team will have more leadership than last years team.

Agree with riverside6 re Okafor. Great feet, knocked down some 15 footers. Soft touch. Will be so much fun to watch him grow and mature even more.

Totally impressed with Winslow. Hit some 3's, strong on D, high energy.
Coach talked about Grayson has the 3rd largest hands on the team, allowing him to do amazing things the ball while in the air. wears a size 16 shoe. Perhaps will be bigger by next year???
Semi has a body to die for. Was not hesitant to shoot some 3's and made some of them. As riverside6 mentioned, he got knocked a couple of times for standing straight up.
MP3 seems to tighten up as he puts his shots up - does not appear relaxed close to rim, especially with Okafor on him. That being said, he will have a year of going up against Okafor daily. That has to be a help in getting better. MP3 talks very well and was very aggressive rebounding.

Some general thoughts.
Practice is videotaped. Coach looks at it nightly and then plans the next day. The practice is regimented with segments timed by the clock. There is very little wasted time. If I worked like that, I would be done in half the time albeit extremely tired. Players were clearly fatigued at the end of the practice.
Capel was most vocal of the 3 assistants, then James. Scheyer was quieter. Coach K did quite a large amount of teaching to make a point. he would also stop things to say where things went right. Too often, players get beat on for errors but not praised as much. Only a couple of times did he raise his voice much - mostly because he felt folks were not competing enough.

Also, Jay Bilas, Kenny Denard, Matt Doherty, and Vinny Del Negro were there.

I had simply a superb time. Would highly recommend getting to the open practice on 11/1/2014 ( I will be in Philly) or doing this fundraiser next year.

[diablesseblu]

My goodness! Haven't heard that name in awhile (not that I missed it). What am I missing? Why on earth would he be at a Duke preseason practice?

[tfk53]

I understand he works for ESPNU as basketball analyst for SEC and Big12 - thought still does not explain his presence. Did not get a chance to ask him!

[sagegrouse]

I understand he works for ESPNU as basketball analyst for SEC and Big12 - thought still does not explain his presence. Did not get a chance to ask him!

I'm sorry, but Coach Doh is not allowed in Cameron without his escort, Andre Buckner.

[dukelifer]

I'm sorry, but Coach Doh is not allowed in Cameron without his escort, Andre Buckner.

When I heard him talk about UNC last year and they way they handled his leaving- he was pretty bitter. Perhaps he has seen the light and is becoming a Duke fan.

[dukelifer]

I had the chance, thanks to an awesome brother who hooked me up, to attend the Inside Duke Basketball practice today. I typed up some very scattered thoughts on practice over at my website.

You can read the article here:

http://www.scacchoops.com/duke-basketball-practice-notes-101714

My gut tells me that Grayson will find a way to get some playing time this year. He has some Redick cockiness/self confidence in him- which is a good thing.

[riverside6]

Thanks for sharing more TFK, I wasn't able to stay after practice and I hate I missed it now that I hear what I missed.

[tfk53]

Here is Picasa link to pictures from yesterday's practice. Taking pictures from the stands is not ideal and I still need lots of practice. But, it gives some idea of the intensity of practice.


https://picasaweb.google.com/tommyk53/DukeBBallPractice10172014#

[tommy]

Here is Picasa link to pictures from yesterday's practice. Taking pictures from the stands is not ideal and I still need lots of practice. But, it gives some idea of the intensity of practice.


https://picasaweb.google.com/tommyk53/DukeBBallPractice10172014#

Thanks so much for those. Great pics. What I really liked best was seeing the apparently very fit basketball condition that Jah and Rasheed's bodies appear to be in. Amile too. That didn't happen by lazing around all summer and early fall eating Cheetos. Hard work in the off-season did that.

[ChillinDuke]

Here is Picasa link to pictures from yesterday's practice. Taking pictures from the stands is not ideal and I still need lots of practice. But, it gives some idea of the intensity of practice.


https://picasaweb.google.com/tommyk53/DukeBBallPractice10172014#

Great pics.

Thank you!

- Chillin

[BD80]

My goodness! Haven't heard that name in awhile (not that I missed it). What am I missing? Why on earth would he be at a Duke preseason practice?

Checking out the cheerleaders

[Troublemaker]

Here is Picasa link to pictures from yesterday's practice. Taking pictures from the stands is not ideal and I still need lots of practice. But, it gives some idea of the intensity of practice.


https://picasaweb.google.com/tommyk53/DukeBBallPractice10172014#

Great practice reports riverside and tfk! Thanks for the pictures, too, tfk!

I especially like picture 13, which is a little bit more grist for my "we're going to defend pick-n-rolls the Thibs way this year" mill

[Kedsy]

I especially like picture 13, which is a little bit more grist for my "we're going to defend pick-n-rolls the Thibs way this year" mill

Well, Jahlil certainly isn't hedging in pic 13, but if this is ICE, Grayson didn't do it very well. He allowed Matt to successfully use the screen to get into the middle of the court. Jahlil will have to allow a pretty much uncontested shot from just beyond the free throw line or be susceptible to Marshall's roll. Or in this particular case, Matt will also have the option of Justise posting up Tyus, I assume due to an earlier switch.

In other words, in the next few frames the screening team has a pretty good chance to score, meaning our attempt at ICE (assuming that's what this shows) isn't working so well yet.

[MCFinARL]

Coach made a point of with only 10 scholarship players, he is not able to substitute in practice. As noted, once they got to the scrimmage, Obi did not enter. Coach felt he could get as much out of 90 minutes with 10 players as in 120 minutes with 13 players. Downside is that he does not see what substituting fresh folks will be like. Said he will have to wait to games for that.



I think he made this comment once earlier, in a video or interview, as well. I find this interesting because, of course, there are actually 11 scholarship players on the team. It's true Obi cannot play in games this year, but he is not a walk-on. On the one hand, of course the emphasis has to be on getting the players who will actually play this year ready. But on the other hand, if Obi is to develop as a player and benefit from his transfer, one might expect him to play a little more. Certainly during Hood's redshirt year, we heard a lot about how good he was in practice. Not really sure what conclusion to draw here, if any.


When I heard him talk about UNC last year and they way they handled his leaving- he was pretty bitter. Perhaps he has seen the light and is becoming a Duke fan.

Could be--or maybe Doherty just wants to support the Emily K Center for some reason--which can't be a bad thing. Edit: Made this post before seeing BD80's brilliant alternative explanation.

[Troublemaker]

Press was allowed into today's practice. Couple interesting articles written by Wiseman (H-S) and Keeley (N&O)

First, the Herald Sun (http://www.heraldsun.com/sports/colleges/x1154812233/SULAIMON-S-ROLE-Veteran-is-Duke-s-top-on-ball-defender) article says that Sheed is embracing selflessness and sacrifice for the team this season, even if that means fewer minutes. Coach K calls him Duke's best on-ball defender.

A snippet I enjoyed reading:


...Shane Battier — recently retired from the NBA’s Miami Heat — spoke to the team about the 2001 NCAA championship season and how everyone sacrificed to make it happen.

“One of the main things he said was `Everyone talks about sacrificing until you have to be the one to sacrifice,’” Sulaimon said. “When you are the one who has to sacrifice, are you willing to do it?”

Sulaimon is proving, at least in practices, that his answer to that question is yes. He’s guarding freshman guard Tyus Jones hard every day, showing his defensive acumen while helping prepare the newcomer for the ACC’s rigors.

“You’re probably not going to like me,” Sulaimon said he told Jones, “but I’m going to get into you. I’m going to pick you up full court. I’m going to try to make it hell for you. I’m going to do that because there is nobody else in the nation that can do what I am going to do to you on an everyday basis.”


That meshes with the practice reports above in which Sheed never wears the white jersey during scrimmages. If Tyus is always going to be on the white team, Sheed is always going to be on the blue team, preparing him.

[Troublemaker]

Next, the News and Observer (http://www.newsobserver.com/2014/10/21/4253353_duke-coach-mike-krzyzewski-going.html?sp=/99/103/&rh=1) article has quotes from Amile about a simplified defense and the Jahlil's defensive impact.

A snippet I enjoyed reading (Amile discussing Jahlil):


“He takes up a lot of space, and he moves his feet really well, so that’s the best thing,” Jefferson said. “We can do things like ice the ball screens. It really helps our guards a lot because he moves so well. When a big comes out for a screen, he can jump out and then recover. And he’s so good at the ball, he blocks shots. He’s a rim protector. It helps our guards get up into the ball more. And it helps our defense feel more confident.”


N&O photographs of practice (http://www.newsobserver.com/2014/10/21/4252839/duke-basketball-hits-court-102114.html). In photo 12 of 16, Matt is once again on the white team. It's possible he's more of a threat to start at SG than previously thought.

[subzero02]

Next, the News and Observer (http://www.newsobserver.com/2014/10/21/4253353_duke-coach-mike-krzyzewski-going.html?sp=/99/103/&rh=1) article has quotes from Amile about a simplified defense and the Jahlil's defensive impact.

A snippet I enjoyed reading (Amile discussing Jahlil):



N&O photographs of practice (http://www.newsobserver.com/2014/10/21/4252839/duke-basketball-hits-court-102114.html). In photo 12 of 16, Matt is once again on the white team. It's possible he's more of a threat to start at SG than previously thought.

Matt's status as a starting shooting guard is contingent upon him maintaining his ability to guard and vastly improving his ablility to shoot. I am sure he spent countless hours shooting 3's from the wing and baseline this summer... Hopefully his shot has been falling consistently in practice.

[sagegrouse]

Some whoop-te-do out of practice -- this from Laura Keeley (http://www.newsobserver.com/2014/10/21/4253353_duke-coach-mike-krzyzewski-going.html?sp=/99/103/&rh=1#storylink=cpy):


Okafor rejected a few shots in practice Tuesday, an element that was completely absent from last year’s squad. Often after his swats, his team would move quickly up the other end of the floor. And at the end of practice, when he was paired with Tyus Jones, Matt Jones, Grayson Allen and Justise Winslow – four freshman and one sophomore – the young ones trounced the team Quinn Cook, Amile Jefferson, Semi Ojeleye, Marshall Plumlee and Jefferson 36-22.


Probably meant Rasheed for the last name.

[roywhite]

Probably meant Rasheed for the last name.

Ha...spotted that error, and knew someone would mention it.:)

The DBR board is getting some pre-season work in, too; posters swat away misspellings, grammatical errors, and weak assertions like Jahlil defends the rim.

[Kedsy]

The DBR board is getting some pre-season work in, too; posters swat away misspellings, grammatical errors, and weak assertions like Jahlil defends the rim.

Come on. Protects the rim. ;)

[OldPhiKap]

Come on. Protects the rim. ;)

I prefer "defeats those who seek the rim" but that's just the Tolkien talking.

[MCFinARL]

Some whoop-te-do out of practice -- this from Laura Keeley (http://www.newsobserver.com/2014/10/21/4253353_duke-coach-mike-krzyzewski-going.html?sp=/99/103/&rh=1#storylink=cpy):



Probably meant Rasheed for the last name.

Maybe--although if one team had only four members (counting Jefferson twice), that might explain why the other team trounced them....;)

[jv001]

Some whoop-te-do out of practice -- this from Laura Keeley (http://www.newsobserver.com/2014/10/21/4253353_duke-coach-mike-krzyzewski-going.html?sp=/99/103/&rh=1#storylink=cpy):



Probably meant Rasheed for the last name.

Makes sense sage, Rasheed always on the team opposite Tyus. Good catch. GoDuke!

[devildeac]

Maybe--although if one team had only four members (counting Jefferson twice), that might explain why the other team trounced them....;)

Unless DUMC cloned Amile in the off-season and we now have an Amile and a Jefferson. Certainly possible, after all, there are 3 Plumlees who played MBB at Duke;).

[wk2109]

Matt's status as a starting shooting guard is contingent upon him maintaining his ability to guard and vastly improving his ablility to shoot. I am sure he spent countless hours shooting 3's from the wing and baseline this summer... Hopefully his shot has been falling consistently in practice.

Coach K spoke with the media for about 20 minutes yesterday (available on goduke.com) and said that if there was a game today, Matt would probably start. He said Matt is a glue guy and has the best defensive instincts on the team.

[Kedsy]

Coach K spoke with the media for about 20 minutes yesterday (available on goduke.com) and said that if there was a game today, Matt would probably start. He said Matt is a glue guy and has the best defensive instincts on the team.

With Rasheed AND Justise coming off the bench? Wouldn't that be something?

[COYS]

With Rasheed AND Justise coming off the bench? Wouldn't that be something?

It would also indicate that K is planning on actually using an 8-man rotation deep into the season OR playing a fair amount of small-ball. I would find it extremely surprising if Rasheed and Justise aren't firmly in the rotation. This would mean that either Matt is poised to join Tyus, Quinn, Rasheed, Amile, Jahlil, Justise and Marshall in the rotation or that Marshall is less likely to see significant minutes. Given that it would be surprising for Jahlil to play as many as 30 minutes per game (though if he stays out of foul trouble, I would imagine he could reach that mark), there will probably be some long stretches when Jahlil is off the floor.

Also, I have managed to turn this thread into a discussion of minutes. Apologies all around.

[MCFinARL]

Unless DUMC cloned Amile in the off-season and we now have an Amile and a Jefferson. Certainly possible, after all, there are 3 Plumlees who played MBB at Duke;).

Awesome idea. Maybe the team can borrow the invisibility cloak invented by Duke researchers (http://www.forbes.com/sites/alexknapp/2012/11/14/duke-researchers-perfect-the-original-invisibility-cloak/) and hide either Amile or Jefferson--then he could be a true "6th man."

[Kedsy]

Coach K spoke with the media for about 20 minutes yesterday (available on goduke.com) and said that if there was a game today, Matt would probably start. He said Matt is a glue guy and has the best defensive instincts on the team.

Listening to Coach K talk about his team is always fascinating. One thing that stuck out to me in that interview is he said so far there hasn't been much "separation" among the players. Which might explain why many of the scrimmages seem to be close games -- someone mentioned this in this or another thread and suggested it may be cause for concern, presumably because it means our "good" players aren't as good as we thought they were. But maybe it means the opposite, that the players at the end of the bench are better than we thought they were. In other words, we know Tyus and Rasheed and Quinn and Justise are very good players, but if Matt and Grayson and Semi are essentially just as (or almost as) good, then wow.

The other thing about not having so much separation is it argues for a longer rotation. No reason to sit Matt, Grayson, Semi, and Marshall if there's little or no drop off when they come in. I know I've usually been the one to argue Coach K would never do it, and frankly I'm a bit skeptical of it now, but listening to him in that interview it sure sounds like he plans to try a 9 or even 10 man rotation.

Obviously we'll have to wait and see, though looking at our schedule, we may not know for sure until almost halfway through the conference schedule -- our toughest pre-season stretch is three games in five days, so Coach K might spread out the minutes to keep everyone fresh. Other than that stretch the only tough pre-season games we have are Wisconsin and UConn, so we might see some evidence then, but our first four conference games are BC, @Wake, @NCSU, and Miami. While ACC games always have the potential to be competitive and @State should be tough, we may not get to really see whether Coach K is going to winnow down his rotation until the latter part of January, when we play @Louisville, Pitt, @St. Johns, @Notre Dame, and @Virginia in a two week span.

[wk2109]

It would also indicate that K is planning on actually using an 8-man rotation deep into the season OR playing a fair amount of small-ball. I would find it extremely surprising if Rasheed and Justise aren't firmly in the rotation. This would mean that either Matt is poised to join Tyus, Quinn, Rasheed, Amile, Jahlil, Justise and Marshall in the rotation or that Marshall is less likely to see significant minutes. Given that it would be surprising for Jahlil to play as many as 30 minutes per game (though if he stays out of foul trouble, I would imagine he could reach that mark), there will probably be some long stretches when Jahlil is off the floor.

Also, I have managed to turn this thread into a discussion of minutes. Apologies all around.

A few more interesting points from K's media session:

1. Justise can play the 4 spot if Duke wants to be fast
2. There isn't much separation of talent: "All 10 guys can play" (K specifically mentioned Marshall, Semi and Grayson as guys who have played really well)

[Troublemaker]

Courtesy The Devil's Den: video of yesterday's practice (http://duke.scout.com/story/1471694-video-duke-basketball-closed-practice?s=167) (with lots of scrimmage plays in there)

Loved watching that. (BTW, what were the players yelling out on ball screens? "Ice, Ice, Ice!")

Courtesy Blue Devil Nation - video of Amile's interview with the press (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ngc9zhk7vCw). (No need to really watch -- it matches the text in the N&O article. But I just enjoy Amile's energetic interviews.)

[Kedsy]

Courtesy The Devil's Den: video of yesterday's practice (http://duke.scout.com/story/1471694-video-duke-basketball-closed-practice?s=167) (with lots of scrimmage plays in there)

Watching that scrimmage, I'm back to expecting a 7.5 or 8-man rotation. Sorry about the brief bout of euphoria.

[COYS]

Watching that scrimmage, I'm back to expecting a 7.5 or 8-man rotation. Sorry about the brief bout of euphoria.

Yeah, I agree. The video was edited a little, but it still showed a glimpse of what the guys look like in a free-flowing, game-like context. Grayson and Semi both have clear potential, but their athletic gifts didn't appear to be enough to make them look comfortable. I hope we're blowing out teams enough early in the season to have some good looks at their potential, but I will definitely be surprised if they're in the rotation by mid January. Matt knocked down one three and played some really tough defense. His size definitely seems like an asset on the wing. I can see why he's getting buzz as being the 7/8th man in the rotation Marshall still looks energetic out there, but he is still a bit mechanical on offense (although he had one pretty lefty hook over Jahlil). He'll get minutes simply because he's the best option to back up Jahlil. However, I wouldn't be surprised to see us play small a bit more than we thought when Jahlil is out.

Meanwhile, the rest of the projected rotation guys appeared to my amateur eyes to be a cut above the rest, despite what Coach K said to the media. Tyus, Jahlil, and Justise all looked really smooth (Justise was causing some problems for Rasheed when Rasheed was on offense, and when Rasheed got into the lane, he was met by Jahlil with some well-timed blocks). Amile seems to really be maturing as a leader on the court and even had a classic opportunistic bucket. His versatility on defense and his knack for being in the right place at the right time on offense are (I think) going to be highlighted this year because Jahlil is going to draw so much attention. Rasheed and Quinn were working hard on the Blue Team, but they seemed to lack help on the offensive end. I would imagine they would look a lot better surrounded by Tyus and Jahlil. Tyus looked perfectly comfortable with the ball in his hands and got the white team out in transition as often as he possibly could. Meanwhile, Jahlil absolutely looks like an NBA player. His post moves are fast and decisive. He moves well on defense and offense (how nice was it to see a big guy rotate to challenge shots when the opposing guard got into the lane?). Quite honestly, I can't wait to see what he can do.

So yeah, from that admittedly limited look into practice, I agree with Kedsy. We might get a 7 1/2 or 8-man rotation. But I would be really surprised if it goes beyond that as the games get tougher.

[luvdahops]

Yeah, I agree. The video was edited a little, but it still showed a glimpse of what the guys look like in a free-flowing, game-like context. Grayson and Semi both have clear potential, but their athletic gifts didn't appear to be enough to make them look comfortable. I hope we're blowing out teams enough early in the season to have some good looks at their potential, but I will definitely be surprised if they're in the rotation by mid January. Matt knocked down one three and played some really tough defense. His size definitely seems like an asset on the wing. I can see why he's getting buzz as being the 7/8th man in the rotation Marshall still looks energetic out there, but he is still a bit mechanical on offense (although he had one pretty lefty hook over Jahlil). He'll get minutes simply because he's the best option to back up Jahlil. However, I wouldn't be surprised to see us play small a bit more than we thought when Jahlil is out.

Meanwhile, the rest of the projected rotation guys appeared to my amateur eyes to be a cut above the rest, despite what Coach K said to the media. Tyus, Jahlil, and Justise all looked really smooth (Justise was causing some problems for Rasheed when Rasheed was on offense, and when Rasheed got into the lane, he was met by Jahlil with some well-timed blocks). Amile seems to really be maturing as a leader on the court and even had a classic opportunistic bucket. His versatility on defense and his knack for being in the right place at the right time on offense are (I think) going to be highlighted this year because Jahlil is going to draw so much attention. Rasheed and Quinn were working hard on the Blue Team, but they seemed to lack help on the offensive end. I would imagine they would look a lot better surrounded by Tyus and Jahlil. Tyus looked perfectly comfortable with the ball in his hands and got the white team out in transition as often as he possibly could. Meanwhile, Jahlil absolutely looks like an NBA player. His post moves are fast and decisive. He moves well on defense and offense (how nice was it to see a big guy rotate to challenge shots when the opposing guard got into the lane?). Quite honestly, I can't wait to see what he can do.

So yeah, from that admittedly limited look into practice, I agree with Kedsy. We might get a 7 1/2 or 8-man rotation. But I would be really surprised if it goes beyond that as the games get tougher.

Agree with all of this. Matt seems to be pretty clearly in the mix at this point, so 7.5 vs. 8 really comes down to how much Marshall plays (40 - Big Jah's mpg - mpg of small ball w/Amile at 5 and Justise at 4). Also loved seeing Jahlil hit Amile cutting to the hoop in the drill phase - gives me additional hope that our offense will have a very different look this year.

[_Gary]

So yeah, from that admittedly limited look into practice, I agree with Kedsy. We might get a 7 1/2 or 8-man rotation. But I would be really surprised if it goes beyond that as the games get tougher.

It's only one video, but I'm forced to agree. After viewing that I'm hard-pressed to see us go more than 8 deep on a regular basis. It's hard for me to believe that Matt will actually beat out Quinn or Rasheed for the 2 spot, but if he does that actually is a positive in my book. We know what we'll get from Rasheed and Quinn if they are coming off the bench, so having Matt contribute at a high enough level for him to start is a good thing. Still, I expect we will see Tyus and Quinn start together (not my preference, due to lack of size) once the season kicks off.

[Troublemaker]

That short clip of like ten scrimmage plays made it obvious that Grayson and Semi were well behind their teammates?

Really? I feel like a rube who stares at a piece of modern art and just doesn't appreciate what everyone else is seeing. If Grayson and Semi had hit their 3-pt attempts, would we even be talking about this?

Now, if you want to say that those two have been projected to be the 9th and 10th men by conventional wisdom for some time now, and it's hard to believe Coach K will play beyond 8 players in any season, fine. I probably agree with that.

But that clip did nothing to persuade me either way. It's not just a sample size problem. It's a Jackson-Pollock-actually-stinks problem. There's nothing to see there, imo!

[Kedsy]

If Grayson and Semi had hit their 3-pt attempts, would we even be talking about this?

I think we still probably would be. Both Semi and Grayson appeared to be thinking before they did anything, both on offense and (more importantly) on defense.

Sure, maybe it was just an "off" few minutes for both of them, but combine it with the fact that Coach K going more than 8 deep would be more or less unprecedented, and the balance tips toward the tried-and-true.

[OldPhiKap]

{insert obligatory "if only we still had Murphy!" post here}

[CDu]

I think we still probably would be. Both Semi and Grayson appeared to be thinking before they did anything, both on offense and (more importantly) on defense.

Sure, maybe it was just an "off" few minutes for both of them, but combine it with the fact that Coach K going more than 8 deep would be more or less unprecedented, and the balance tips toward the tried-and-true.

I am firmly in the "we'll whittle down to a 7.5-8 man rotation" camp. However, nothing in that video suggested to me that Ojeleye and Allen were "thinking before doing." At least not any moreso than, say, Matt Jones or Plumlee. Just not enough sample size to make any meaningful assessment of where those guys are, especially since so much of the action was being handled by our three PG and our two post guys.

[Kedsy]

I am firmly in the "we'll whittle down to a 7.5-8 man rotation" camp. However, nothing in that video suggested to me that Ojeleye and Allen were "thinking before doing." At least not any moreso than, say, Matt Jones or Plumlee. Just not enough sample size to make any meaningful assessment of where those guys are, especially since so much of the action was being handled by our three PG and our two post guys.

I agree with you that Marshall may fall into the same camp (at this point, he might be the "half" in the 7.5 man rotation). I didn't notice it so much with Matt. I agree the sample size is small.

On the other hand, to believe that something that's never happened before (9 or 10 man rotation) might happen now, I'd expect to see positive signs, e.g., that the end-of-the-rotation guys looked just (or almost) as comfortable and skillful as the top-of-the-rotation guys (supporting Coach K's comment that there hasn't been much separation). I'd hope to see such positive signs even in a small sample. Unfortunately I didn't see it, so unless and until we do see it I personally don't expect the 9th and 10th men to play very much outside of garbage time.

[MChambers]

Watching that scrimmage, I'm back to expecting a 7.5 or 8-man rotation. Sorry about the brief bout of euphoria.

Some sort of experiment to see how we'd react? When I realized you were saying we'd go 10 deep, I almost believed it.

[dukebluesincebirth]

I'm trying not to draw too many conclusions from one video clip of one practice, BUT...a big question for me going into this season is how well Tyus plays defense on the opposing PG. I'm sure he'll improve, but I didn't love his defensive stance in the clip. Quin blows by him because his knees aren't bent, and he's using his hands instead of sliding his feet. He has to work on that.
On a more positive note, Okafor is a horse! Feed him early and often!!

[mr. synellinden]

Courtesy The Devil's Den: video of yesterday's practice (http://duke.scout.com/story/1471694-video-duke-basketball-closed-practice?s=167) (with lots of scrimmage plays in there)

Loved watching that. (BTW, what were the players yelling out on ball screens? "Ice, Ice, Ice!")

Courtesy Blue Devil Nation - video of Amile's interview with the press (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ngc9zhk7vCw). (No need to really watch -- it matches the text in the N&O article. But I just enjoy Amile's energetic interviews.)

My takes (for what they're worth) from this video:

Rasheed still looks like he is moving too quickly and doesn't know what he wants to do when he gets into the lane. The two blocks by Jahlil reminded me too much of his struggles with awkward drives and an inability to finish at the rim last year. I think he needs to get in his head that drawing a foul is okay - and put his body in a position to draw contact instead of trying to avoid contact which gives the defender room to block shots - especially when he goes left.

Jahlil looks so polished and fundamental and mature beyond his years. He is a great athlete in the same way someone like Shane Battier or Tim Duncan or Jason Kidd is - not speed or jumping ability wise, but rather in terms of coordination, body control, hand-eye coordination and touch. He is going to be an All-Star in the NBA and possibly a dominant, first-team All-NBA big man.

There is a clear chemistry between Tyus and Jahlil (I suspect Justise is part of the group as well, but is not as tight as the other two). I think one of the keys to this team will be whether Jefferson and Cook get their respect and vice versa - do the experienced team leaders have enough maturity and confidence to defer when needed to the more talented players, and do the rookies listen and learn from the leaders. If those 4 come together - and if Rasheed is really willing to sacrifice for the good of the team (a la Nate James in 2001), this team could go all the way.

Grayson is going to play this year. Although he missed the shots in the video, he did not look tentative at all to me or like he was thinking too much or the game was moving too fast for him. He can handle the ball, he can shoot and we know he's a great athlete. I think I can see him playing a role like Andre in 2010.

I would not be shocked if both Matt Jones and Justise start, with Quinn and Rasheed coming off the bench. Tyus is going to need help in terms of perimeter defense and the tandem of Jones and Justise on the wings will make us a very strong on the ball defensive team. It's also possible that Tyus and Quinn start with Rasheed rotating in at G (with Grayson getting a few minutes if there is foul trouble or we need more outside shooting), and Matt subbing in for Justise (or for Jefferson with Justise playing the four) - and Marshall swapping in for Jahlil. I think in the early games, Coach K will be looking closely at the backcourt/wing combinations among Tyus, Quinn, Justise, Matt and Rasheed and trying to decide which combination of those 3 is our best - and depending upon the situation.

There were some good examples of ball movement on the white team - it looks like Matt and Amile are developing some chemistry on offense. I'm hoping we move the ball better this season and create more easy baskets. Tyus is really going to be the key to that (I have to reserve initial judgment on Tyus. I just did not see enough in that video for any meaningful first impressions) but I did see evidence of us being a better passing team all around.

Jefferson looks ready to have a great - possibly All-ACC level - season. I can envision him averaging 12 and 6 with a block or so per game. One thing I haven't seen or heard is whether he's developed any semblance of a jump shot. Even if his range is 10-12 feet, if he can develop that and open things up a little bit, he can really be a matchup problem and create more space for Jahlil.

Marshall looks more smooth to me - for him. He's always going to be a bit of clunky player, but he looks like he is moving freely - signs of being fully healthy - and with more confidence. He will contribute meaningfully this year - can he hit his FTs?

[mo.st.dukie]

I'm trying not to draw too many conclusions from one video clip of one practice, BUT...a big question for me going into this season is how well Tyus plays defense on the opposing PG. I'm sure he'll improve, but I didn't love his defensive stance in the clip. Quin blows by him because his knees aren't bent, and he's using his hands instead of sliding his feet. He has to work on that.
On a more positive note, Okafor is a horse! Feed him early and often!!

I don't think anybody should be expecting Tyus to be a great or even good defender this year. If the team defense is at a level it should be then it probably won't hurt the overall goal of winning games and championships if Tyus isn't a good defender. Team defense is very important and I like the potential we have there.

[Kedsy]

Grayson is going to play this year.

Grayson is clearly the 9th (or even 10th) guy in the rotation. You apparently buy into the idea that Coach K will do something he's never done before. I bought in for approximately 3 minutes and 12 seconds, but I'm past that now. I think it's a long shot. Make that a really long shot.

That said, I assume Grayson will play in blowouts and in the early part of the schedule. But by the end of January, if Grayson is still in the rotation I'll be surprised.


Jefferson looks ready to have a great - possibly All-ACC level - season. I can envision him averaging 12 and 6 with a block or so per game.

I don't know about the points or blocks, but last season, Amile average a hair under 7 rpg in 22 mpg. You think he'll regress as a rebounder? I expect Amile to get more minutes this season (27 to 30), and if so I'll be very disappointed if he gets fewer than 8.5 or 9 rpg.

[sagegrouse]

Watching that scrimmage, I'm back to expecting a 7.5 or 8-man rotation. Sorry about the brief bout of euphoria.

Take two inhalers Kedsy and call us in the morning. But, before you go under, remember these thoughts --


Coach K came back from his conquest of Spain and surveyed his estate: the moles, I mean, the Mercers, had torn up the landscape; the Hoos had taken over the stables; carcasses left by the Hawks of the Mountains from two years ago were still present.
Ahh, he concluded, the celebrated "best basketball coach in the world" was a joke and couldn't even get a salute from the critters in his own barnyard.
Something has to change, so he announced that "things are going to be different" this year.
He thinks of his team: The three best players have never played a minute of college ball.
The three returning starters were useful and productive players a year ago but not stars in the Duke tradition.
The veterans who mostly sat a year ago are feisty, big and strong and are demanding playing time: Marshall is a seven-footer who runs like a gazelle and can swat shots with ease; Matt is very strong and can do most things well; Semi is the strongest player on the team and, although he played little, he had the best shooting percentages on last year's team.
Grayson Allen is a revelation -- surprisingly strong and athletic.
Well, things are gonna be different, and all ten players are going to play in every game, because I have no idea who will lead us in February and March.
And we are not taking a backseat to anyone this year.



Warmly, your muse -- Sage

[CDu]

I don't know about the points or blocks, but last season, Amile average a hair under 7 rpg in 22 mpg. You think he'll regress as a rebounder? I expect Amile to get more minutes this season (27 to 30), and if so I'll be very disappointed if he gets fewer than 8.5 or 9 rpg.

I think you are neglecting the fact that we are adding a much better complement of rebounders to the mix. Okafor is likely to grab a bunch of rebounds that might have otherwise gone to Jefferson. As such, I think it will be really hard for Jefferson to get to 8.5-9 rpg, even with the added playing time.

And that is without considering that Plumlee and Winslow are almost assuredly better rebounders than the guys they are replacing (Hairston and Hood).

Rebounding stats from year to year aren't exactly a zero-sum game, but they are close enough that I find it hard to believe Jefferson will average 8 rebounds per game by season's end (even though I think we will get more rebounds as a team).

[BD80]

I think you are neglecting the fact that we are adding a much better complement of rebounders to the mix. Okafor is likely to grab a bunch of rebounds that might have otherwise gone to Jefferson. As such, I think it will be really hard for Jefferson to get to 8.5-9 rpg, even with the added playing time.

And that is without considering that Plumlee and Winslow are almost assuredly better rebounders than the guys they are replacing (Hairston and Hood).

Rebounding stats from year to year aren't exactly a zero-sum game, but they are close enough that I find it hard to believe Jefferson will average 8 rebounds per game by season's end (even though I think we will get more rebounds as a team).

And there won't be any misses for offensive rebound opportunities!

(OK maybe Marshall will run a couple of quick streaks of three or four offensive rebounds / failed put-backs)

[Troublemaker]

Grayson is clearly the 9th (or even 10th) guy in the rotation. You apparently buy into the idea that Coach K will do something he's never done before.

Okay. But if I recall correctly, you told me your rotation model (which I truly do appreciate, btw) has always nailed the top 6 players in the rotation, right?

Matt Jones starting at SG, if it continues to happen, would be your model's first ever miss on the top 6, right? (And, incidentally, the score would then be Tmak's Stubborn Gut 1, Kedsy's Model 0 based on our previous friendly bet about whether your model could nail both the top 6 and top 8 this season.)

If Matt Jones is the starting 2, then maybe the model just doesn't work for this season. And a 9-man rotation is more possible than usual. Would you agree?

[Ichabod Drain]

Okay. But if I recall correctly, you told me your rotation model (which I truly do appreciate, btw) has always nailed the top 6 players in the rotation, right?

Matt Jones starting at SG, if it continues to happen, would be your model's first ever miss on the top 6, right? (And, incidentally, the score would then be Tmak's Stubborn Gut 1, Kedsy's Model 0 based on our previous friendly bet about whether your model could nail both the top 6 and top 8 this season.)

If Matt Jones is the starting 2, then maybe the model just doesn't work for this season. And a 9-man rotation is more possible than usual. Would you agree?

Technically Matt could start and still not be top 6 in the rotation. I believe Matt started a few games last year and still was number 10 in minutes.

[MCFinARL]

Grayson is clearly the 9th (or even 10th) guy in the rotation. You apparently buy into the idea that Coach K will do something he's never done before. I bought in for approximately 3 minutes and 12 seconds, but I'm past that now. I think it's a long shot. Make that a really long shot.


This is a wonderfully precise approximation. :D


Take two inhalers Kedsy and call us in the morning. But, before you go under, remember these thoughts --


Coach K came back from his conquest of Spain and surveyed his estate: the moles, I mean, the Mercers, had torn up the landscape; the Hoos had taken over the stables; carcasses left by the Hawks of the Mountains from two years ago were still present.
Ahh, he concluded, the celebrated "best basketball coach in the world" was a joke and couldn't even get a salute from the critters in his own barnyard.
Something has to change, so he announced that "things are going to be different" this year.
He thinks of his team: The three best players have never played a minute of college ball.
The three returning starters were useful and productive players a year ago but not stars in the Duke tradition.
The veterans who mostly sat a year ago are feisty, big and strong and are demanding playing time: Marshall is a seven-footer who runs like a gazelle and can swat shots with ease; Matt is very strong and can do most things well; Semi is the strongest player on the team and, although he played little, he had the best shooting percentages on last year's team.
Grayson Allen is a revelation -- surprisingly strong and athletic.
Well, things are gonna be different, and all ten players are going to play in every game, because I have no idea who will lead us in February and March.
And we are not taking a backseat to anyone this year.



Warmly, your muse -- Sage

Ah, Sage, let this be true. I hope it is as I think we may have the horses for it and would love to see what would happen. Preseason talk of changes notwithstanding, though, I'm not convinced anyone can teach as successful an old dog as Coach K this new a trick.

[Troublemaker]

Technically Matt could start and still not be top 6 in the rotation. I believe Matt started a few games last year and still was number 10 in minutes.

True. In the context of this discussion, my hypothetical is that Matt starts for most of the season and ends up in the top 6 in minutes.

In case anyone's interested...

Courtesy of Blue Devil Nation's twitter (and digging around their youtube account), here is Quinn praising Matt's improvement this season: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=niFZfLFMFpI

[CDu]

Okay. But if I recall correctly, you told me your rotation model (which I truly do appreciate, btw) has always nailed the top 6 players in the rotation, right?

Matt Jones starting at SG, if it continues to happen, would be your model's first ever miss on the top 6, right? (And, incidentally, the score would then be Tmak's Stubborn Gut 1, Kedsy's Model 0 based on our previous friendly bet about whether your model could nail both the top 6 and top 8 this season.)

If Matt Jones is the starting 2, then maybe the model just doesn't work for this season. And a 9-man rotation is more possible than usual. Would you agree?

This is a clever and fair question. And it gets at the bigger question of "how much should we take Coach K's comments this past year to heart?" He said that he would take a hard look at everything about the program. He has already stated that he has simplified the defense and we've seen evidence that he's switched from hedging on screens to "icing" the screens. So could it be possible that he extends the idea of change to a deeper rotation?

Now, it is my opinion that rotation depth is not actually an issue with our past failures. Many, if not most, of the best teams tend toward a 7-8 man rotation. So I'm not sure why playing the 9th and 10th men (who are almost certainly substantially worse than the top 5-6 players) more will translate to better team results. So I don't expect that to be part of the changes. But I think it's fair to consider the possibility based on the end-of-season presser last spring and the changes we've already noted in practices this season.

[DukieInBrasil]

Okay. But if I recall correctly, you told me your rotation model (which I truly do appreciate, btw) has always nailed the top 6 players in the rotation, right?

Matt Jones starting at SG, if it continues to happen, would be your model's first ever miss on the top 6, right? (And, incidentally, the score would then be Tmak's Stubborn Gut 1, Kedsy's Model 0 based on our previous friendly bet about whether your model could nail both the top 6 and top 8 this season.)

If Matt Jones is the starting 2, then maybe the model just doesn't work for this season. And a 9-man rotation is more possible than usual. Would you agree?

I'd be surprised if Matt starts. An article mentioned that Sheed is drawing the assignment of defending Tyus in practice, to push both Tyus's development as well as (IMO) to train Sheed to defend the opposing PG or star guard so that Tyus doesn't have to. Matt is a very good defender, by all accounts, but might be better suited to defend someone other than the PG.
I think what has been seen out of practices so far is done more to prepare players for the types of assignments they'll draw during the year more so than what line-ups we'll be seeing. I have learned to not get too worked up over newplayeritis, and although Matt is not "new", he is newer than Sheed. That being said, last year's experiment with line-change substitutions (i am NOT saying i expect that to be repeated this year!) showed us that Sheed can shine as the lead guard in the second unit while Matt plays solid D withe first unit, so perhaps K will try to replicate that.
If all 3 of Tyus, Quinn and Sheed start there won't really be a lead guard for a "2nd unit", although there may not be a need for that role since it is unlikely that K would pull all 3 of them at the same time absent some specific unforeseen circumstance.
My $0.02 is not on Matt starting.

[_Gary]

I would not be shocked if both Matt Jones and Justise start, with Quinn and Rasheed coming off the bench. Tyus is going to need help in terms of perimeter defense and the tandem of Jones and Justise on the wings will make us a very strong on the ball defensive team.

I completely agree with this (as a possibility - not sure it will work out that way) and would love to see it. We would have an incredible defensive team if we really do go with the white team in the video. If Matt can be consistent with his outside shot I believe he can start. But he's got to be consistent in order to take advantage of Jahlil. In fact that's my only real question. Which combo is best going to be able to space the floor to allow Jahlil room to work his magic on the block? It's funny, because last year we had both Parker and Hood as outside shooters who would have been great alongside Okafor. This year our forwards aren't nearly as proficient with the outside shot, so it's going to be interesting to see how this all pans out.

[CDu]

I completely agree with this (as a possibility - not sure it will work out that way) and would love to see it. We would have an incredible defensive team if we really do go with the white team in the video. If Matt can be consistent with his outside shot I believe he can start. But he's got to be consistent in order to take advantage of Jahlil. In fact that's my only real question. Which combo is best going to be able to space the floor to allow Jahlil room to work his magic on the block? It's funny, because last year we had both Parker and Hood as outside shooters who would have been great alongside Okafor. This year our forwards aren't nearly as proficient with the outside shot, so it's going to be interesting to see how this all pans out.

This is how I feel too. I am checking most of my expectations at the door in terms of what will/will not happen this year, just because of the comments made this past off-season being so different from prior years. I still lean toward things drifting back toward the norm, but I'm much more open to the possibility of major changes than usual.

And as for the idea of Matt Jones joining Tyus Jones and Winslow on the perimeter, it does have some intrigue. Especially if Matt Jones has improved his touch/confidence on the offensive end. With Tyus Jones, Okafor, and Jefferson being very capable scorers, I could certainly see the argument for going with more defense at the wing positions. Coincidentally, with Plumlee being not very offensive-minded, a second unit of Cook, Sulaimon, and Plumlee makes sense too.

In any case, it should be an interesting season. Hopefully whatever changes made result in tremendous team success. It has been too long since we've won a championship (ACC or NCAA). Let's rectify that this year!

[Kedsy]

Okay. But if I recall correctly, you told me your rotation model (which I truly do appreciate, btw) has always nailed the top 6 players in the rotation, right?

Matt Jones starting at SG, if it continues to happen, would be your model's first ever miss on the top 6, right? (And, incidentally, the score would then be Tmak's Stubborn Gut 1, Kedsy's Model 0 based on our previous friendly bet about whether your model could nail both the top 6 and top 8 this season.)

If Matt Jones is the starting 2, then maybe the model just doesn't work for this season. And a 9-man rotation is more possible than usual. Would you agree?

I think what I said (or at least what I meant to say) is that nobody who the model predicted to be outside the rotation has jumped into the top six. If that's not what I said then I misspoke -- for example, in 2006-07, the model predicted Jon Scheyer to be in the rotation as the fourth perimeter option (i.e., sixth or seventh in the rotation), but he ended up starting and second on the team in minutes played (clearly in the top 6). This season, the model predicts Matt Jones to be the 8th guy in an 8-man rotation (because when we have 5 perimeter guys with his rating or better, we have always gone 8-deep). So while it would be a big surprise to me and my model if Matt starts, it would neither be unprecedented nor contrary to the model.

That said, I still strongly believe that (absent an important injury) Matt will (by the end of the season) end up 7th or even 8th on the team in minutes, so I'll stand by our "friendly bet" that this season the model will accurately predict both the top 6 and the top 8.

[Kedsy]

Something has to change, so he announced that "things are going to be different" this year.

Well, if by the "things are going to be different this year" he meant more than a change in the conditioning regimen and a simplification of the defense, I'll be surprised. For Coach K that's a lot of change already.


I think you are neglecting the fact that we are adding a much better complement of rebounders to the mix. Okafor is likely to grab a bunch of rebounds that might have otherwise gone to Jefferson. As such, I think it will be really hard for Jefferson to get to 8.5-9 rpg, even with the added playing time.

And that is without considering that Plumlee and Winslow are almost assuredly better rebounders than the guys they are replacing (Hairston and Hood).

Rebounding stats from year to year aren't exactly a zero-sum game, but they are close enough that I find it hard to believe Jefferson will average 8 rebounds per game by season's end (even though I think we will get more rebounds as a team).

Maybe, I guess we'll see at the end of the season. I will say that Jabari was 3rd in the ACC in defensive rebounding percentage (23.0%) and 12th in the ACC in offensive rebounding percentage (11.4%), and I'll be surprised if Jahlil surpasses those marks by any significant degree. And hopefully the rebounds Justise gets are rebounds that last season our opponents got against our soft-rebounding perimeter players, rather than cannibalizing Amile's rebounds. So I still think if Amile plays 27 to 30 mpg, he has a decent shot at 8.5 to 9 rpg (and I'm very confident he'll do better than the 6.0 rpg that the post I responded to suggested).


If Matt can be consistent with his outside shot I believe he can start. But he's got to be consistent in order to take advantage of Jahlil. In fact that's my only real question. Which combo is best going to be able to space the floor to allow Jahlil room to work his magic on the block? It's funny, because last year we had both Parker and Hood as outside shooters who would have been great alongside Okafor. This year our forwards aren't nearly as proficient with the outside shot, so it's going to be interesting to see how this all pans out.

Yeah, even if Matt shoots twice as well from three-land as he did last season, a lineup of Tyus/Matt/Justise/Amile/Jahlil is a shockingly poor outside shooting team, especially for a Duke team. At least one of Quinn or Rasheed (and maybe both) almost have to start with Tyus/Amile/Jahlil in order to space the floor properly.

Based on K's comments about Matt's and Justise's defense, it wouldn't surprise me at this point if one of them enters the starting lineup (pushing probably Rasheed to the second unit), but I'll be shocked if we play both together (with both Quinn and Rasheed on the bench) for a significant chunk of time.

[_Gary]

Yeah, even if Matt shoots twice as well from three-land as he did last season, a lineup of Tyus/Matt/Justise/Amile/Jahlil is a shockingly poor outside shooting team, especially for a Duke team. At least one of Quinn or Rasheed (and maybe both) almost have to start with Tyus/Amile/Jahlil in order to space the floor properly.

Based on K's comments about Matt's and Justise's defense, it wouldn't surprise me at this point if one of them enters the starting lineup (pushing probably Rasheed to the second unit), but I'll be shocked if we play both together (with both Quinn and Rasheed on the bench) for a significant chunk of time.

Yep, that's the quandary in my mind as well. It sounds like an absolutely fabulous defensive team, but with very little outside shooting. Perhaps Matt and Justise are hitting at a much higher clip than we realize in practice? I'd love for that to be the case, because both are defensive powerhouses (this coming admittedly from a small sample-size of viewing).

[COYS]

Yeah, even if Matt shoots twice as well from three-land as he did last season, a lineup of Tyus/Matt/Justise/Amile/Jahlil is a shockingly poor outside shooting team, especially for a Duke team. At least one of Quinn or Rasheed (and maybe both) almost have to start with Tyus/Amile/Jahlil in order to space the floor properly.

Based on K's comments about Matt's and Justise's defense, it wouldn't surprise me at this point if one of them enters the starting lineup (pushing probably Rasheed to the second unit), but I'll be shocked if we play both together (with both Quinn and Rasheed on the bench) for a significant chunk of time.

I agree with this. Coach K has a rep for being a defense first coach, but I think his offensive prowess is often overlooked. Take away the 2006-2007 season and Duke has not been out of the top 20 on offense in the KenPom era (since 2002) and has only not been in the top 10 twice. Historically, it hasn't mattered who Duke lost from the previous year, the team knows how to score year end and year out. Spacing and making 3's are a huge part of Duke's offensive success (though, Duke has been far from completely dependent on the three as is the common trope . . . but that's another story). Quinn and Rasheed can hit outside shots. I think that gets at least one of them into the starting lineup and almost guarantees that the two of them see plenty of court time. It might not be our best lineup, defensively, but I'd be surprised if Tyus, Quinn, Rasheed, Amile, and Jahlil isn't our most potent offensive 5. I suspect we'll see that combo quite a bit, even if it isn't the starting lineup.

I want to see us improve on defense, for sure, but the staff also wants Jahlil to be able to go to town on the offensive end, too. Unless Matt pulled a Space Jam and took and took Andre's shooting talent (which clearly hasn't happened cause Andre's been on fire in the Heat camp), I just see a lineup with Tyus, Matt, and Justise as too anemic from distance to give Jahlil the space he needs. Here's to hoping Matt comes out on fire from three this season and proves me wrong.

[CDu]

Maybe, I guess we'll see at the end of the season. I will say that Jabari was 3rd in the ACC in defensive rebounding percentage (23.0%) and 12th in the ACC in offensive rebounding percentage (11.4%), and I'll be surprised if Jahlil surpasses those marks by any significant degree. And hopefully the rebounds Justise gets are rebounds that last season our opponents got against our soft-rebounding perimeter players, rather than cannibalizing Amile's rebounds. So I still think if Amile plays 27 to 30 mpg, he has a decent shot at 8.5 to 9 rpg (and I'm very confident he'll do better than the 6.0 rpg that the post I responded to suggested).

Well, I would be surprised if Okafor exceeds the 23.0 dreb% by any significant degree. However, I'd expect him to top Parker's 11.4 oreb% fairly comfortably. Similarly, I'd expect Plumlee's added minutes (at the expense of one of our worst rebounders in Hairston) will factor in as well. So while some of those rebounds will come from the opposition, some are going to come from Jefferson. And with Winslow likely being a better rebounder than Hood (who was pretty passive on the glass), that is going to sap even more chances.

We're talking about a ~18-30% increase in Jefferson's minutes per game. And you're expecting him to have a ~25-30% increase in his rebounds per game? Even with three upgrades in rebounding over their predecessors around him? Seems fairly optimistic.

I wouldn't be at all surprised to see an increase in rpg for Jefferson. Perhaps to around 7.5 rpg. But with Okafor and Plumlee likely playing 35+ mpg combined and with Winslow replacing Hood, I find it hard to believe that Jefferson will maintain his rebounds per minute from last year, let alone improve them. Averaging 8.5-9 rpg would be an amazing accomplishment with Okafor on the floor.

[ChillinDuke]

Okay. But if I recall correctly, you told me your rotation model (which I truly do appreciate, btw) has always nailed the top 6 players in the rotation, right?

Matt Jones starting at SG, if it continues to happen, would be your model's first ever miss on the top 6, right? (And, incidentally, the score would then be Tmak's Stubborn Gut 1, Kedsy's Model 0 based on our previous friendly bet about whether your model could nail both the top 6 and top 8 this season.)

If Matt Jones is the starting 2, then maybe the model just doesn't work for this season. And a 9-man rotation is more possible than usual. Would you agree?

Well, you weren't asking me. But you're gonna get my response anyway.

I definitely agree that a 9-man (call it a more-than-7.5/8-man) rotation is more possible than usual. Still not probable. But more probable than usual, and perhaps much more probable than usual (if usual is next to zero).

The water is just murkier than the "typical" preseason. There are many data points that suggest K is trying some different things. One thing's for sure, I am much less confident in my starting lineup projections than I've ever been in late October.

I really can't wait for the Blue-White game.

- Chillin

[Kedsy]

Well, I would be surprised if Okafor exceeds the 23.0 dreb% by any significant degree. However, I'd expect him to top Parker's 11.4 oreb% fairly comfortably. Similarly, I'd expect Plumlee's added minutes (at the expense of one of our worst rebounders in Hairston) will factor in as well. So while some of those rebounds will come from the opposition, some are going to come from Jefferson. And with Winslow likely being a better rebounder than Hood (who was pretty passive on the glass), that is going to sap even more chances.

We're talking about a ~18-30% increase in Jefferson's minutes per game. And you're expecting him to have a ~25-30% increase in his rebounds per game? Even with three upgrades in rebounding over their predecessors around him? Seems fairly optimistic.

I wouldn't be at all surprised to see an increase in rpg for Jefferson. Perhaps to around 7.5 rpg. But with Okafor and Plumlee likely playing 35+ mpg combined and with Winslow replacing Hood, I find it hard to believe that Jefferson will maintain his rebounds per minute from last year, let alone improve them. Averaging 8.5-9 rpg would be an amazing accomplishment with Okafor on the floor.

Well, I guess I suggested 23% to 30%, anyway. I could be comfortable with a prediction of 8.1 to 9.0 (18%-30% increase, same as his minutes), if that would appease you.

Either way, you may be right. But considering Amile is a year older and much more bulked up (and most players improve under such circumstances), I see no reason to expect his rebounding prowess to diminish, as you apparently do. Like I said before, we won't know who's right until the end of the season.

[CDu]

Well, I guess I suggested 23% to 30%, anyway. I could be comfortable with a prediction of 8.1 to 9.0 (18%-30% increase, same as his minutes), if that would appease you.

Either way, you may be right. But considering Amile is a year older and much more bulked up (and most players improve under such circumstances), I see no reason to expect his rebounding prowess to diminish, as you apparently do. Like I said before, we won't know who's right until the end of the season.

I don't expect Jefferson's rebounding prowess to diminish at all. In fact, I would guess he will be a better rebounder. But I expect his opportunities to diminish thanks to the increase in prowess of his teammates.

[luvdahops]

I don't expect Jefferson's rebounding prowess to diminish at all. In fact, I would guess he will be a better rebounder. But I expect his opportunities to diminish thanks to the increase in prowess of his teammates.

Amile will also be playing further from the basket on most possessions, on both ends, than he did a year ago. I think your projection of ~7.5 rpg is more reasonable, all things considered.

[tommy]

Yep, that's the quandary in my mind as well. It sounds like an absolutely fabulous defensive team, but with very little outside shooting. Perhaps Matt and Justise are hitting at a much higher clip than we realize in practice? I'd love for that to be the case, because both are defensive powerhouses (this coming admittedly from a small sample-size of viewing).

I said it at the time he committed, or even before actually, and I'll say it again. People around here are underestimating the offensive skills and talent of Justise Winslow. He's talked about sometimes on here like he's some kind of robotic clod on offense. He's not. Is he a deadeye, JJ Redick-style three-point bomber from long range? No. But the kid is very comfortable taking and making 17-foot jumpshots, he slashes to the hoop well, he's excellent in transition, he sees the floor well, he finishes in traffic, all of it. He's not going to have gaudy numbers, because he'll defer to Jahlil -- as he should -- and to guys like Quinn and Rasheed, but the kid can put the ball in the hole when the team needs him to do so, and when the opportunity presents itself. Just because outside shooting isn't the skill that separates him from others -- and I don't think that could be said of anybody on this team, actually -- it doesn't mean he can't make outside shots at a reasonable rate, especially if he's essentially ignored out there by the opponent. In fact, based on his performance last year, I'm not any more confident in Matt Jones shooting an 18 or 20 foot jumpshot than I am in Justise Winslow.

[mr. synellinden]

Grayson is clearly the 9th (or even 10th) guy in the rotation. You apparently buy into the idea that Coach K will do something he's never done before. I bought in for approximately 3 minutes and 12 seconds, but I'm past that now. I think it's a long shot. Make that a really long shot.

That said, I assume Grayson will play in blowouts and in the early part of the schedule. But by the end of January, if Grayson is still in the rotation I'll be surprised.



I don't know about the points or blocks, but last season, Amile average a hair under 7 rpg in 22 mpg. You think he'll regress as a rebounder? I expect Amile to get more minutes this season (27 to 30), and if so I'll be very disappointed if he gets fewer than 8.5 or 9 rpg.


Stats don't always move in perfect correlation to minutes. Singler's rebounding per game went down in his junior year (2010) despite his minutes going up from his sophomore year. Some of that can be attributed, perhaps, to a slower pace of play by Duke; or due to Zoubek's impact on the overall rebounding distribution. On the other hand - Singler's rebounding was about the same in 2011 (about the same minutes per game) when Zoubek was gone and our tempo picked up (from 68 -72 possessions per game), so who knows? For what it's worth, we were one of the slowest tempo teams last season at 67 possessions per game (about the bottom 25 or 30 percent - remember all that talk about running and pressing?) and that may very well go up this year. With all that being said, there is probably a better chance that Amile's rebounding rate goes up than down, even though I think the presence of Okafor in terms of rebounding by Jefferson will be greater than Jabari was. So maybe he'll get 7-8 rebounds a game instead of in the 6s.

I think 9 is a big stretch - and certainly not a threshold that if he's below it should be considered a disappointment. Jabari didn't get to 9 rebounds a game last year. In fact, do you know how many players in the K era have averaged 9 or more rebounds a game for a season? 5: Mason (3 times '11, '12, 13); Shelden ('04, '05, '06); Brand ('99); Parks ('95); and Laettner ('90). Interestingly, all of those guys were centers for Duke. If you lower the threshold to 8 rebounds, in addition to those mentioned and Jabari who averaged 8.7, the only others are Boozer ('02) and Greg Newton ('96) - also centers. McRoberts and Zoubek came close in '07 and '10, respectively - again, centers. So if Jefferson were to average 8 or more rebounds per game, besides Jabari last year, he'd be the only non-center to do it. Is somewhere between 7 and 8 possible - yes. Likely - maybe. But to do more than that would be almost unprecedented - as a side note it shows what a great rebounder Jabari was last season - although I guess he did play a lot of minutes at center.

Regarding Grayson, I know all the thinking on a 7-8 man rotation and the evidence of K's patterns. However, K has made comments about the depth of the team and how the talent really extends to all of the scholarship players. I expect Grayson to get a chance to play this year, even as the 9th man in the rotation. It might only be 7-8 minutes a game, and he might not see a lot of action in close conference games in the second half when K tends so shorten the rotation to 6-7 players. But what if he can shoot 75-80% from the line? Might we then see him get some action in late game situations? Or what if he turns out to be one of our best 3 point shooters and we need more court spacing? I think he is very likely to be #9 in the rotation, but I also think he might be good enough to be the rare #9 that gets some steady court time.

[luvdahops]

Stats don't always move in perfect correlation to minutes. Singler's rebounding per game went down in his junior year (2010) despite his minutes going up from his sophomore year. Some of that can be attributed, perhaps, to a slower pace of play by Duke; or due to Zoubek's impact on the overall rebounding distribution. On the other hand - Singler's rebounding was about the same in 2011 (about the same minutes per game) when Zoubek was gone and our tempo picked up (from 68 -72 possessions per game), so who knows? For what it's worth, we were one of the slowest tempo teams last season at 67 possessions per game (about the bottom 25 or 30 percent - remember all that talk about running and pressing?) and that may very well go up this year. With all that being said, there is probably a better chance that Amile's rebounding rate goes up than down, even though I think the presence of Okafor in terms of rebounding by Jefferson will be greater than Jabari was. So maybe he'll get 7-8 rebounds a game instead of in the 6s.

I think 9 is a big stretch - and certainly not a threshold that if he's below it should be considered a disappointment. Jabari didn't get to 9 rebounds a game last year. In fact, do you know how many players in the K era have averaged 9 or more rebounds a game for a season? 5: Mason (3 times '11, '12, 13); Shelden ('04, '05, '06); Brand ('99); Parks ('95); and Laettner ('90). Interestingly, all of those guys were centers for Duke. If you lower the threshold to 8 rebounds, in addition to those mentioned and Jabari who averaged 8.7, the only others are Boozer ('02) and Greg Newton ('96) - also centers. McRoberts and Zoubek came close in '07 and '10, respectively - again, centers. So if Jefferson were to average 8 or more rebounds per game, besides Jabari last year, he'd be the only non-center to do it. Is somewhere between 7 and 8 possible - yes. Likely - maybe. But to do more than that would be almost unprecedented - as a side note it shows what a great rebounder Jabari was last season - although I guess he did play a lot of minutes at center.

Regarding Grayson, I know all the thinking on a 7-8 man rotation and the evidence of K's patterns. However, K has made comments about the depth of the team and how the talent really extends to all of the scholarship players. I expect Grayson to get a chance to play this year, even as the 9th man in the rotation. It might only be 7-8 minutes a game, and he might not see a lot of action in close conference games in the second half when K tends so shorten the rotation to 6-7 players. But what if he can shoot 75-80% from the line? Might we then see him get some action in late game situations? Or what if he turns out to be one of our best 3 point shooters and we need more court spacing? I think he is very likely to be #9 in the rotation, but I also think he might be good enough to be the rare #9 that gets some steady court time.

Kyle also played primarily the 3 as a junior and senior, after playing mostly in the 4-5 spots his first two years. As with my comment on Amile above, proximity to the basket has an impact on rebounding rates.

[mr. synellinden]

Kyle also played primarily the 3 as a junior and senior, after playing mostly in the 4-5 spots his first two years. As with my comment on Amile above, proximity to the basket has an impact on rebounding rates.

Yes. Which is why only centers have averaged more than 8 rebounds per game under Coach K.

[CDu]

Kyle also played primarily the 3 as a junior and senior, after playing mostly in the 4-5 spots his first two years. As with my comment on Amile above, proximity to the basket has an impact on rebounding rates.

Yup. There are a few different factors conspiring against Jefferson reaching 8-9 rpg. Better rebounding teammates reducing his opportunities and playing further from the rim (i.e., less center) reducing his opportunities as well.

And as mr. S illustrated, it's just really hard to average 9 rpg at Duke under Coach K. The ones who have done so were all centers, and all who averaged even 8 rpg led the team. So for Jefferson to average 8-9 rpg, that is more or less implying that he will lead the team in rebounds.

The more I think about it, the less confident I am that Jefferson will even reach 7.5 rpg for the reasons previous posters have so eloquently noted. I think Okafor and Plumlee (mostly Okafor of course) are going to make a huge dent in the available rebounds for other Devils this year. So while I anticipate improvement from Jefferson, I think his rebound numbers aren't going to really reflect that. I certainly wouldn't call a 7rpg season this year a disappointment.

[Kedsy]

So if Jefferson were to average 8 or more rebounds per game, besides Jabari last year, he'd be the only non-center to do it.

Well, it's possible you're right about Amile not getting to 9 rpg, but I don't entirely agree with your analysis.

First of all, I'd argue Mason Plumlee was mostly a PF in 2011 and 2012 (Miles played C when he was in), and Mason averaged 9.2 rpg in 28.4 mpg in 2012 and 8.4 rpg in 25.6 mpg in 2011. Christian Laettner played PF in 1990 (Alaa Abdelnaby played C) and averaged 9.6 rpg.

Putting that aside for the moment, however, I'd argue the real reasons Duke PFs don't get so many rebounds is (a) we often don't play an actual power forward; and (b) when we do they often don't play so many minutes.

Here's my (admittedly hastily compiled) list of Duke PFs who stood taller than 6'6 and played 27+ mpg, going back to 1985-86:

2014, Jabari Parker, 30.7 mpg; 8.7 rpg
2013, Ryan Kelly, 28.9 mpg; 5.3 rpg
2012, Mason Plumlee, 28.4 mpg; 9.2 rpg
2009, Kyle Singler, 32.2 mpg; 7.7 rpg
2004, Luol Deng, 31.1 mpg; 6.9 rpg
2002, Mike Dunleavy, 32.4 mpg; 7.2 rpg
2001, Shane Battier, 34.9 mpg; 7.3 rpg
2000, Shane Battier, 35.5 mpg; 5.6 rpg
1994, Antonio Lang, 30.1 mpg; 5.4 rpg
1990, Christian Laettner, 29.9 mpg; 9.6 rpg
1989, Danny Ferry, 33.2 mpg; 7.4 rpg
1988, Danny Ferry, 32.5 mpg; 7.6 rpg
1987, Danny Ferry, 33.2 mpg; 7.8 rpg
1986, Mark Alarie, 29.8 mpg, 6.2 rpg

So, assuming you accept my list 2 out of 14 boarded better than 9 rpg. And the majority topped 7 rpg.

But I would go further and suggest that most of even these PFs wouldn't qualify as a "true" PF like Amile. They were most stretch fours, big wings, whatever else you want to call them.

I would argue that the only power forwards that Amile could be fairly compared with from a rebounding perspective (and only from a rebounding perspective, he's obviously not the player that some of these guys were) would be Jabari Parker, Mason Plumlee, Christian Laettner, and maybe Antonio Lang. Possibly you throw Ferry in there too. And if you accept that, then allowing Antonio Lang as an outlier, we're looking at something between 7.4 rpg and 9.6 rpg.

I would argue further that even that analysis might miss the mark a little and that we should look at rebounding percentage, which depends not on minutes played but on rebounding opportunities. I only have rebounding percentage numbers going back to 1997, but here's the list of Duke PFs in that timeframe who played 20+ mpg, have had defensive rebounding percentages of 20+ and offensive rebounding percentages of 10+:

2014, Jabari Parker, 30.7 mpg; 23.0 dr%; 11.4 or%; 8.7 rpg
2012, Mason Plumlee, 28.4 mpg; 24.4 dr%; 12.0 or%; 9.2 rpg
OR
2012, Miles Plumlee (who I think was the center, but if you disagree), 20.5 mpg; 22.7 dr%; 16.6 or%; 7.1 rpg
2011, Mason Plumlee, 25.6 mpg; 23.3 dr%; 11.7 or%; 8.4 rpg

And that's it. Amile's rebounding percentages last season were 21.5 dr% and 14.8 or%. True, he's moving from C to PF so his opportunities might decrease, but if he stays even close to those percentages and gets 27+ mpg, we should be looking at somewhere between 8.5 and 9 rpg.

Feel free to disagree. I'm just saying there's not a lot of Duke PFs like Amile to compare with, so past data might not be so useful here.

[CDu]

Kedsy, I will disagree. First, I think you have been loose with the term PF in describing Mason. Mason played a LOT of C those years as Miles was largely a reserve and Kelly played PF. Second, how many of those PF had a dominant rebounder playing C alongside them? I suspect the answer is zero, with the possible exception being Laettner. We have had only a handful of seasons with a single player getting 8+ rpg, and never two in the same season.

So basically you are suggesting that one of the following things is going to happen:
a) Jefferson outrebounds Okafor, or
b) something that has never happened in the Coach K era is going to happen (two guys top 8 rpg in the same season)

I am going to say that neither of those scenarios is likely, and instead that the presence of Okafor and Plumlee and Winslow will eat too much into Jefferson's opportunities and prevent him from getting to 8 rpg. It seems much more plausible to me that Okafor will lead the team in rebounds, and by a reasonable margin. And that will mean that Jefferson, despite improving as a player, will see his rebound rate go down.

[Kedsy]

Kedsy, I will disagree. First, I think you have been loose with the term PF in describing Mason. Mason played a LOT of C those years as Miles was largely a reserve and Kelly played PF. Second, how many of those PF had a dominant rebounder playing C alongside them? I suspect the answer is zero, with the possible exception being Laettner. We have had only a handful of seasons with a single player getting 8+ rpg, and never two in the same season.

You're certainly entitled to disagree. But just last season, Jabari had 8.6 rpg last season and he played beside a dominant rebounder (Amile). Amile played 22.7 mpg last season but if he'd played 27+ (as I expect him to this season) he'd easily have topped 8 rpg. And Miles Plumlee had 7.1 rpg in only 20 mpg in 2012, which is another answer to your second question -- we played two dominant rebounders side-by-side in two of the past three seasons -- if Miles had gotten the minutes that Amile should get this season, Miles also would have easily surpassed 8 rpg. So, (a) while Mason did play some C, for half the game Miles was the center; and (b) while you're right that when he played Ryan Kelly was a stretch-four on that team, if we didn't have him and Miles had to play 25+ mpg, we would have had two guys with 8+ rebounds.

Most years, Duke's PF is a stretch-four like Ryan Kelly, essentially a big wing. Some years not even so big, like DeMarcus Nelson in 2008.

But we don't have that stretch-four this year, and we won't be playing a shorter-than-6'6 PF, either. If you don't count Mason, when has that happened in the Coach K era? Well, if you only count years where a PF played 25+ mpg, then not so many times. In 1990 Laettner wasn't a stretch-four yet (only 12 3-point attempts), and he grabbed 9.6 rpg. In 2014, Jabari really was a stretch-four, but he was big enough to sometimes play C, and he nabbed 8.7 rpg; in 2009, Kyle Singler was also really a stretch-four, but at least he was 6'8, and had 7.7 rpg; and in 1993 and 1994, Antonio Lang wasn't much of a rebounder (5.5 and 5.4 rpg). Danny Ferry was totally a stretch-four, but like Jabari he sometimes defended the opposing C, and he had three years ranging from 7.4 rpg to 7.8 rpg. So, other than Lang, these guys all either had 7.4+ rpg, with two out of the five guys topping 8 rpg.

We're essentially already dealing with an anomaly under Coach K: Amile is destined for 27+ mpg, is not a stretch-four, and is not undersized for the position. In my opinion it doesn't take so much imagination to see him keep up his rebounding pace.

Put another way, a good rebounding team gets 70% of its defensive rebounds and a little less than 40% of its offensive rebounds. There's plenty of room for two guys to grab 20+% defensively and 10+% offensively (of course there is, it happened for Duke in two of the last three seasons). And if Amile does that, he ought to top 8 rpg in 27+ mpg.

[BD80]

So many factors will impact rebounding stats.

Pace of play - more shots = more rebounds. Tyus will mean more shots per game. Amile is likely to be first big guy on break and most likely to get put-back on initial fast break shot. Our potent fast break will discourage opponents to send guards in to rebound, improving our defensive rebounding efficiency.

Style of play. If we run the offense through Jah, that will open up weak side rebounds for Amile. It will also place Amile on side that has to rotate to defend the break, often making him the second defender back and most likely to rebound fast break attempt.

Style of play II - shot selection, we lost Jabari, Rodney, Dre and Tyler - 4 of our top outside shooters. It is likely our shots will come closer to the basket, giving our "bigs" more offensive rebounding opportunities. I would suggest that players will encouraged to get the ball up at the rim for Jah - and Amile.

Jah is a strength/length/positioning rebounder. He will dominate his area, leaving Amile free to clean up his area. In contrast, Jabari was a ball seeker, giving up some position rebounds for the team while getting extra rebounds outside his position - some of which Amile would have had.

Jah is a rim protector, forcing more bad shots in close that Amile will be in position to rebound. Having Jah in position to challenge shots leaves him with back to the basket rather than in rebounding position.

I think Justise will be a significant rebounder for the team, which will reduce the rebounds gathered by Jah and by Amile.

But overall I believe we will be a much better rebounding team, and Amile's numbers improve.

[Troublemaker]

Fayetteville Observer article about Matt Jones (http://www.fayobserver.com/sports/college_sports/schramm-duke-s-matt-jones-ready-to-make-impact/article_e8872411-c739-5bd7-b8d8-c0f3c88666ac.html)

Snippet:

His approach can be summed up in the question scrawled in black marker across his blue shoes.

"Why not me?" it read. "I mean, why not me? Why can't I be a top player?" Jones said. ". Ultimately, I decided to (write) that to give me a visual picture of every time I want to get down on myself or every time I get sad. Things could be so much worse. Obviously, this year I'm coming in more grateful, more open to the Duke atmosphere. I'm definitely in a great place."

Also, video interview with Matt Jones (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R63gfFkdIeE) (courtesy of Blue Devil Nation). Discusses his improved confidence and shooting this season. Says his shooting was "all mental" last season.

[Des Esseintes]

Fayetteville Observer article about Matt Jones (http://www.fayobserver.com/sports/college_sports/schramm-duke-s-matt-jones-ready-to-make-impact/article_e8872411-c739-5bd7-b8d8-c0f3c88666ac.html)

Snippet:


Also, video interview with Matt Jones (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R63gfFkdIeE) (courtesy of Blue Devil Nation). Discusses his improved confidence and shooting this season. Says his shooting was "all mental" last season.
I really hope things are going better for Matt. Stories such as these remind me how hard it can be to play athletics at high DI level. As Coach K says, every player runs his own race. But that blade cuts both ways, which is to say not only in the sense that you shouldn't compare your progress to those around you but instead focus on running the best race you can. It ALSO means that, on one level at least, you are alone. You are part of a team, sure--and that means a lot--but everyone on that team competes with everyone else for a chunk of those 200 minutes. Not getting on the court has to be a lonely experience, especially for someone whose incoming ranking suggested a reasonable hope for real burn. Last year sounds like a real trial for him. I hope this season is a more pleasurable experience. I hope he gets minutes, and regardless of minutes I hope he feels less stressed and alone in his pursuit of success.