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pfrduke
09-13-2007, 02:14 AM
It was announced yesterday (http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/moving_on/) that Ken Pomeroy (of kenpom.com) and John Gasaway (aka the Big Ten Wonk) will be collaborating with the folks at Baseball Prospectus on a new project, the somewhat uncreatively named Basketball Prospectus. Pomeroy is in the pantheon of basketball statisticians (with Dean Oliver and John Hollinger), and Gasaway has been providing excellent analysis of the Big 10 for the past three seasons. I've been a Baseball Prospectus subscriber for the past couple years, and their writing and analysis is top quality - it's my single favorite baseball site. The collaboration of all of these people is really exciting news, and it will be a great resource for people seeking to understand the statistical aspect of the game and the game in general. And the best parts are, their coverage will be entirely focused on college basketball this coming season, and it will be entirely free. It hasn't launched yet, but around early/mid October, check out basketballprospectus.com on your daily romp through basketball sites (right after the good ol' DBR).

[Note: I am in no way affiliated with the basketballprospectus project - I'm just a fan of Pomeroy, Gasaway, and the Baseball Prospectus gang, and think that this collaboration will be great for coverage of college basketball.]

dukemomLA
09-13-2007, 02:58 AM
As a MLB fan, I can't wait to explore this site. Much appreciated! Again, many thanks!!

riverside6
09-13-2007, 07:48 AM
It was announced yesterday (http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/moving_on/) that Ken Pomeroy (of kenpom.com) and John Gasaway (aka the Big Ten Wonk) will be collaborating with the folks at Baseball Prospectus on a new project, the somewhat uncreatively named Basketball Prospectus. Pomeroy is in the pantheon of basketball statisticians (with Dean Oliver and John Hollinger), and Gasaway has been providing excellent analysis of the Big 10 for the past three seasons. I've been a Baseball Prospectus subscriber for the past couple years, and their writing and analysis is top quality - it's my single favorite baseball site. The collaboration of all of these people is really exciting news, and it will be a great resource for people seeking to understand the statistical aspect of the game and the game in general. And the best parts are, their coverage will be entirely focused on college basketball this coming season, and it will be entirely free. It hasn't launched yet, but around early/mid October, check out basketballprospectus.com on your daily romp through basketball sites (right after the good ol' DBR).

[Note: I am in no way affiliated with the basketballprospectus project - I'm just a fan of Pomeroy, Gasaway, and the Baseball Prospectus gang, and think that this collaboration will be great for coverage of college basketball.]
Very cool, thanks for sharing!

ACCBBallFan
09-13-2007, 10:09 AM
http://baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=521

Jusat a clarification, that

http://basketballprospectus.com

site does not become operational until October. So the previous posters must be commenting on baseball site.

I kept getting a site not found until I linked back to article and figured out why.

mus074
09-13-2007, 03:31 PM
I am a big fan of Pomeroy's work and recently learned to love baseball by reading Money Ball, which details the impact of Baseball Prospectus. I am so very excited! Thanks for the heads up, pfr, and thanks again for the blogwork you do. I look forward to regular reading on your site again this year.

Go Devils!

pfrduke
10-10-2007, 03:24 PM
Resurrecting this thread as the Basketball Prospectus has officially launched today, and one of the first articles is an ACC preview (of sorts). Check it out (http://www.basketballprospectus.com/).

ACCBBallFan
10-10-2007, 08:30 PM
Resurrecting this thread as the Basketball Prospectus has officially launched today, and one of the first articles is an ACC preview (of sorts). Check it out (http://www.basketballprospectus.com/).Thanks for the heads up.

Ken Pomeroy's projections look pretty reasonable, except I think NC State may finish better than 9-7.

http://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=4


2007 Pythag % Returning 2008
Team Wins Minutes Prediction
North Carolina 13.2 70.4 13-3
Duke 9.7 82.4 11-5
Clemson 7.2 81.8 10-6
Maryland 10.0 48.1 9-7
N.C. State 4.5 81.4 9-7
Georgia Tech 8.5 60.7 9-7
Virginia 8.9 71.9 8-8
Florida St. 8.3 74.6 7-9
Miami FL 4.3 68.9 7-9
Boston College 8.7 50.0 6-10
Virginia Tech 8.3 39.2 4-12
Wake Forest 3.9 70.0 3-13

riverside6
10-10-2007, 08:41 PM
Can I tell you how much I already love this site. Very cool stuff from Pomeroy, especially the article about effective usage (http://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9).

ACCBBallFan
10-11-2007, 09:19 AM
Can I tell you how much I already love this site. Very cool stuff from Pomeroy, especially the article about effective usage (http://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9). Did you find the complete list of metrics? All I could locate was the reference to scores for Durant, the MO 3 point specialist, and McRoberts but not everybody's individual scores, maybe someone else in the article. Was looking for more after article piqued my curiosity.

riverside6
10-11-2007, 09:40 AM
Did you find the complete list of metrics? All I could locate was the reference to scores for Durant, the MO 3 point specialist, and McRoberts but not everybody's individual scores, maybe someone else in the article. Was looking for more after article piqued my curiosity.
I think you would have to look at Pomeroy's site, here is Duke's page (http://kenpom.com/sr.php?team=Duke).

pfrduke
10-11-2007, 10:38 AM
Did you find the complete list of metrics? All I could locate was the reference to scores for Durant, the MO 3 point specialist, and McRoberts but not everybody's individual scores, maybe someone else in the article. Was looking for more after article piqued my curiosity.

If you're on the Duke page on Pomeroy's site (or any team page for that matter), you can click the column heading for any of the individual stats to see the leaderboards for that particular stat. For example, here's the link to usage (http://kenpom.com/leaders.php?c=PctPoss) (percentage of possessions used).

I'm sure once the transition to Basketball Prospectus is complete, the statistical archive will be better. Baseball Prospectus has one of the most searchable archives there is, that allows you to sort by almost any combination of filters. I'm sure they'll try to put the same kind of system in place for the basketball site.

ACCBBallFan
10-11-2007, 01:17 PM
If you're on the Duke page on Pomeroy's site (or any team page for that matter), you can click the column heading for any of the individual stats to see the leaderboards for that particular stat. For example, here's the link to usage (http://kenpom.com/leaders.php?c=PctPoss) (percentage of possessions used).

I'm sure once the transition to Basketball Prospectus is complete, the statistical archive will be better. Baseball Prospectus has one of the most searchable archives there is, that allows you to sort by almost any combination of filters. I'm sure they'll try to put the same kind of system in place for the basketball site.Interesting to note that if you ignore the 40% minimum on the usage page and look by ACC team, Brian Zoubek third in ACC in % Possessions with 28.5% only to Al Thornton and barely behind Sean Singletary:

[Thornton-FSU 29.0]
Singletary-UVA 28.6%
Zoubek-DU 28.5% very surprising
[Reynolds-VA 28.3%]
Mays-CL 27.0%
[Crittenden-GA T 27.0%]
[Visser-WF 26.1%]
Costner-NC St 26.0%
[Dowdell-VA T 26.0%]
McClinton-Miami 25.7%
Grant-NC St- 25.7%
[Harris-Miami 24.8%]
Nelson-DU 24.0%
Douglas-FSU 23.9%
[Gurley-WF 23.5%] somewhat surprising and possible reason he transferred
[Gordon-VA T 23.4%]
[Ibekwe-MD 23.4%]
[Young-GA T 23.4%]
Washington-VA T 23.3%
Clinch-GA T 23.2%
McCauley-NC St 23.0%
Osby-MD 22.7%
[Strawberry-MD 22.6%]
Ish Smith-WF 22.6%
[Hamilton-CL 22.6%]

In general just listing guys over 22.5% and a couple of exceptions, though not sure it is a bad thing if everybody is averaging 20% for the team:

[McRoberts-DU 21.9%]
Henderson-DU 21.5%
Lawson-UNC 21.4%
[Wright-UNC 21.1%]
Ellington-UNC 21.1%
Paulus-DU 21.0%
[Terry-UNC 20.7%]
[Atsur-NC St 18.9%] -surprisingly low and optimism for NC St
Deon Thompson-UNC 18.4%
Scheyer-DU 18.0%

Makes you wonder if Paulus had not been struggling with his ball handling if Duke might not have been more productive playing Zoubek-McRoberts-Henderson-Nelson-Paulus and Scheyer 6th man which of course would have made Zoubek more prepared to be the Duke big man this year.

Indoor66
10-11-2007, 01:53 PM
Interesting to note that if you ignore the 40% minimum on the usage page and look by ACC team, Brian Zoubek third in ACC in % Possessions with 28.5% only to Al Thornton and barely behind Sean Singletary:

[Thornton-FSU 29.0]
Singletary-UVA 28.6%
Zoubek-DU 28.5% very surprising
[Reynolds-VA 28.3%]
Mays-CL 27.0%
[Crittenden-GA T 27.0%]
[Visser-WF 26.1%]
Costner-NC St 26.0%
[Dowdell-VA T 26.0%]
McClinton-Miami 25.7%
Grant-NC St- 25.7%
[Harris-Miami 24.8%]
Nelson-DU 24.0%
Douglas-FSU 23.9%
[Gurley-WF 23.5%] somewhat surprising and possible reason he transferred
[Gordon-VA T 23.4%]
[Ibekwe-MD 23.4%]
[Young-GA T 23.4%]
Washington-VA T 23.3%
Clinch-GA T 23.2%
McCauley-NC St 23.0%
Osby-MD 22.7%
[Strawberry-MD 22.6%]
Ish Smith-WF 22.6%
[Hamilton-CL 22.6%]

In general just listing guys over 22.5% and a couple of exceptions, though not sure it is a bad thing if everybody is averaging 20% for the team:

[McRoberts-DU 21.9%]
Henderson-DU 21.5%
Lawson-UNC 21.4%
[Wright-UNC 21.1%]
Ellington-UNC 21.1%
Paulus-DU 21.0%
[Terry-UNC 20.7%]
[Atsur-NC St 18.9%] -surprisingly low and optimism for NC St
Deon Thompson-UNC 18.4%
Scheyer-DU 18.0%

Makes you wonder if Paulus had not been struggling with his ball handling if Duke might not have been more productive playing Zoubek-McRoberts-Henderson-Nelson-Paulus and Scheyer 6th man which of course would have made Zoubek more prepared to be the Duke big man this year.

I don't know about others, but this makes my head spin. It seems like a seminar on investing by the technical department of a stock house.

FewFAC
10-11-2007, 02:21 PM
Interesting to note that if you ignore the 40% minimum on the usage page and look by ACC team, Brian Zoubek third in ACC in % Possessions with 28.5% only to Al Thornton and barely behind Sean Singletary:

[Thornton-FSU 29.0]
Singletary-UVA 28.6%
Zoubek-DU 28.5% very surprising
[Reynolds-VA 28.3%]
Mays-CL 27.0%
[Crittenden-GA T 27.0%]
[Visser-WF 26.1%]
Costner-NC St 26.0%
[Dowdell-VA T 26.0%]
McClinton-Miami 25.7%
Grant-NC St- 25.7%
[Harris-Miami 24.8%]
Nelson-DU 24.0%
Douglas-FSU 23.9%
[Gurley-WF 23.5%] somewhat surprising and possible reason he transferred
[Gordon-VA T 23.4%]
[Ibekwe-MD 23.4%]
[Young-GA T 23.4%]
Washington-VA T 23.3%
Clinch-GA T 23.2%
McCauley-NC St 23.0%
Osby-MD 22.7%
[Strawberry-MD 22.6%]
Ish Smith-WF 22.6%
[Hamilton-CL 22.6%]

In general just listing guys over 22.5% and a couple of exceptions, though not sure it is a bad thing if everybody is averaging 20% for the team:

[McRoberts-DU 21.9%]
Henderson-DU 21.5%
Lawson-UNC 21.4%
[Wright-UNC 21.1%]
Ellington-UNC 21.1%
Paulus-DU 21.0%
[Terry-UNC 20.7%]
[Atsur-NC St 18.9%] -surprisingly low and optimism for NC St
Deon Thompson-UNC 18.4%
Scheyer-DU 18.0%

Makes you wonder if Paulus had not been struggling with his ball handling if Duke might not have been more productive playing Zoubek-McRoberts-Henderson-Nelson-Paulus and Scheyer 6th man which of course would have made Zoubek more prepared to be the Duke big man this year.

They touched on that in one of the articles, noting that unfortunately, Zoubek was a turnover machine (33.1 TORate).

crote
10-11-2007, 02:52 PM
They touched on that in one of the articles, noting that unfortunately, Zoubek was a turnover machine (33.1 TORate).

They also pointed out that Zoubek hadn't played enough to make his numbers that statistically reliable. From a statistical perspective he's something of an unknown going into this year.

Also, big thanks to whoever provided the link to this site. I love kenpom.com, and this looks to be even better.

pfrduke
10-11-2007, 05:31 PM
Zoubek's usage rate was high because when he was on the court, the team was very committed to involving him in the offense. As others have mentioned, he had an unfortunately high turnover rate - it was, by a wide margin, the worst of anyone in the ACC who played at least 5 min/game. But he also had a very high scoring percentage (second only to Nelson on Duke's team) and a high free throw rate. So it doesn't really surprise me that his usage rate is high.

It will likely go down this season as his minutes increase and (hopefully) TO rate decreases. But it wouldn't shock me if it's still relatively high, because guarding 7'1" is tough, and he's shown a willingness to be assertive with the ball in the post. Plus, he gathers a lot of offensive rebounds, and thus creates shooting opportunities for himself even when the team isn't focusing on him.