View Full Version : Phase 0 - 2014-2015 MBB Season
superdave
10-10-2014, 12:40 PM
Duke basketball is back with a lot of new faces. Practice is going, Countdown to Craziness is a few weeks away and we have exhibition games 11/4 vs. Livingstone and 11/8 vs. Central Missouri. Without further adieu, let's dig into the team and what we should be looking for as the season unfolds -
1. Health - Amile had a hip injury over the summer and was reported to be 95% healthy in September. He should be ready to go today, but may take some time to get his conditioning back. This year’s team has a lot of depth at every position. We could also go smaller or bigger to make up for the loss of one of our guys. Here’s hoping the health section of the Phase threads grows no longer than this.
2. Will the offense run through Jahlil? - Jahlil Okafor is the #1 player from his class and is projected to be the #1 pick in the 2015 draft. Last season, we saw Coach K feature Jabari who had a similar level of talent. Without seeing this team on the court together, it seems like a safe bet that Coach K will design the offense to go through Jahlil in the post on many if not most possessions.
Big Men at Duke - Duke ran many plays through Mason in the 2012-2013 season. Mason started off the season strong – with double doubles in 13 of his first 18 games. His offensive usage rate was 24.5% over the season. Duke used Shelden Williams a lot his junior and season years. He finished 3rd in the NCAA in FT attempts his senior season and is 3rd all-time in ACC history in FT attempts and 1st in rebounds. Shelden is 3rd all-time in FG% in ACC history, Mason is 18th. Similarly, Elton Brand finished his sophomore season 1st in FG% in the conference. Is it too much to expect Jahlil to get as many touches or be as efficient as senior year Mason or junior year Shelden or sophomore Elton? Maybe. But the talent is there, and Jahlil is arguably bigger and more talented than those three.
I would put Jahlil’s likely offensive usage rate somewhere between 2013 Mason Plumlee’s 24.5% on the low end and 2014 Jabari Parker’s 32.7% on the high end. Along those same lines, I would put Jahlil’s minutes somewhere between Freshman Elton Brand’s 23.5 minutes and Jabari Parker’s 30.7. (Brand averaged 13.4 points and Parker averaged 19.7 points)
Outside Shooting will be a Premium - If this assumption is correct and Duke’s offense runs through Jahlil Okafor, Coach K is likely to employ an offense with Okafor down low and the other four players on the outside. This offense puts a premium on 3-point shooting. Last season, Rasheed shot 41% from 3 and Quinn shot 37%. Quinn’s percentage was actually down a little from his sophomore season. With Quinn likely taking more spot up jumpers, we can reasonably expect his % to go up. It remains to be seen how well Tyus and Justise shoot from deep. From the bench, none of Matt, Grayson or Semi is a proven long-range shooter at the college level either. In addition to playing great team defense, the ability to knock down the 3-ball is a sure way to earn minutes this season. Outside of Quinn and Rasheed, this is a big question mark as practice begins.
Pace - One more question about our offense worth exploring is what pace this year’s team will pursue. Last season, there was some discussion of running more. The first few games the coaches were yelling run, run, run on every defensive rebound or forced turnover. By the time we got to December they were instructing the team to slow down. With Tyus as the primary ballhandler, and with Quinn and Rasheed on the wings, there is no reason why this team cannot push the pace. I’ve read that even Okafor runs the floor well for 6’11’’.
Looking back to other seasons with a big man featured in the offense, here is what we may expect. In 1999, Duke actually had a 9-man rotation and averaged 91.8 ppg. That team had sophomores rather than the freshmen we will have this season. So we are likely to run less and be a little less efficient in scoring. In 2006, Shelden was our second leading scorer, an All-American and we averaged 81.1 ppg. In 2013, Mason, Seth and Ryan led a senior-dominated team that averaged 77.1 ppg and did not run very much. Duke is likely to run more than the 2013 team but less than the 1999 team. Ideally, our guys will run enough to be able to pull away from teams. But it will take really good defense to get the live ball turnovers necessary to pull that off.
3. Quinn and Tyus - Tyus as Playmaker and Quinn as Shooter – It seems clear that Tyus will have the ball in his hands and be our chief playmaker. This moves Quinn off the ball as an under-sized 2-guard with exceptional ball-handling skills and really good distance shooting. The offensive roles seem pretty clear and both guys appear committed.
Backcourt Defensive Assignments – The questions for this backcourt come on the defensive end. Who matches up against a bigger guard? Do we see Tyus and Quinn on the court together for 10 minutes or more like 25 minutes per game? Rasheed should play the 2 any time the Quinn/Tyus combo is not on the court, giving us more size immediately. Behind him is Matt, who also brings size and defensive prowess. We saw a lot of the Quinn/Seth backcourt two seasons ago. It worked sometimes, but not well enough defensively to be excited about. This could be an on-going discussion for the duration. One additional point – If Justise is as good defensively and versatile as advertised, that will help out with smaller backcourt issues quite a bit because he will be able to handle switches well.
The more interesting defensive question for me, given the likelihood of significant minutes for both Tyus and Quinn, is if the backcourt will overplay passing lanes. With Amile/Jahlil/Marshall sitting under the basket, our guards should gamble for steals, right? That has been a key part of many great Duke teams. The alternative will be to be less aggressive and control the boards which our frontcourt should be able to handle. I think our guards will be encouraged to be aggressive earlier in the season. If they find success, it will continue. If not, we may see a more deliberate pace and reliance on our interior size.
4. Will Rasheed make the leap? - DukieTiger compared Nolan and Rasheed’s advanced stats in the Pre-Season thread, in an attempt to show that it is not far-fetched to think Rasheed can have a significant leap this year the same way Nolan did his junior season. What stands out in that analysis is Rasheed regressed from .461 to .397 on 2-pointers from his freshman to sophomore seasons. Why is that? I suspect Rasheed was called on to drive the ball more his freshman season, but deferred more to Jabari and Rodney last season. Will he recover? Will Tyus set him up to make more efficient plays and get better shots? If so, Rasheed could score in bunches.
Rasheed needs to improve his consistency, which could be considered a maturity thing, and his ability to finish plays. If he does both of these things, he will be All-ACC caliber.
5. Leadership – Quinn and Amile have been named captains for the season. Both players look to be playing significant minutes. Amile may wind up being the defensive quarterback for this team, which is something last year’s team lacked and caused them to fall short of its potential. Duke needs to communicate to play the aggressive, hedging, switching high-pressure defense that Coach K wants to play. The last team that excelled at that was the 2010 title team with Lance Thomas filling that role. Can Amile play that role from the start? Will the rest of the guys fall in line? How quickly will the freshmen pick up the talk?
Rasheed – If any of our guys take on more of a leadership role over the season, Rasheed is likely the guy. He will play starter minutes and have the ball in his hand a lot. He is also capable of playing lock-down D on opponents’ best guards. It is certainly up for debate whether Rasheed becomes more efficient and figures out how to fit in with the incoming freshmen. But he is also a junior who has played in the biggest games the last two seasons. It is time for him step up his leadership and his communication, and hopefully we get to watch that unfold early this season.
Focus – Ideally our team will communicate well and the upper classmen will lead. If those things happen, the team will be able to self-correct when they lose focus. Last season our team would lose focus for stretches and drift, while giving away a lead. Our two main scorers were new and our juniors and seniors were role players. Will we see similar issues this season with three prominent freshmen in the rotation?
6. Any surprises in store for the season? - Coach K is always good for a new wrinkle or shaking things up if an injury occurs or a scheme is not working. Last year we had lineup changes briefly and the team was historically bad defensively (by Coach K's standards). So what are the possible surprises for this season?
Will anyone step up a lot and demand minutes? Kedsy has a nice study on what the likely 8-man rotation will be. Could Matt, Semi or Grayson be better than expected and earn consistent rotation minutes?
Is there any way we run and score 90 points a game?
Will we switch things up and press or trap significant minutes each game?
It looks like we may be changing the way we defend the pick and roll, by pushing the playmaker to the baseline. Will that be executed well enough to be successful?
7. Will the Freshmen and Juniors/Seniors mix well? - In a Phase post to kick off the 2011 season, Jumbo expressed concern whether Kyrie (one and done) might have a different agenda from the upper classmen. Well, we have the likely first or second pick in next year’s draft, so could that be an issue? It was not with Kyrie or Jabari. We have gotten good feedback so far from coaches, players and lot of positive media about those concerns. It seems like this squad is pretty tight.
Crunch time With so many new faces, who takes the big shots? Whose number does Coach K call? I would nominate Amile for the guy likely to get the big defensive stop. But who makes that play on the other end?
Will the Freshmen be Freshmen? If any or all of our newbies hit the proverbial wall, how will they react? Can our older guys carry the team for stretches?
8. Competitive Strengths - I am looking forward to the games starting and getting Phase 0 under our belts so we can see how the team gels and what its competitive strengths are.
Hopefully our strengths include forcing TO’s, Jahlil fouling out opponents’ entire frontlines, a healthy rebounding differential, lots of open 3-pointers and most of all great execution and focus. Anyone care to predict what this squad will really excel at?
budwom
10-10-2014, 01:12 PM
A lot of good stuff in there, Dave.
I put defense WAY at the top of my question list. Last year's defense was inexcusably horrific.
We have to do much better vs. dribble penetration, and hopefully Okafor/Plumlee will be less defense averse than last year's interior crew.
Rather than trying to figure out who's in the rotation, I just go with the assumption K will max out at 7.5 or 8 guys, so just choose the two guys who won't be in the rotation.
I'm hoping Semi gets in the mix. I guess M.Jones, Allen and Semi will be competing for the sitter roles (pardon my sarcasm).
One of last year's major surprises to me was our inability to turn teams over as much as I expected, and get out on the break. With all the quickness and wingspan of
Hood, Parker and Sulaimon, I expected a gaggle of forced turnovers.
A lot of that probably has to do with mediocre to poor pressure on the ball....I'd expected Rasheed to excel in that capacity, but he ended up in Coach K's Kennel early, and
it just didn't happen.
tommy
10-10-2014, 02:42 PM
Great start to the Phase posts Superdave. Excellent job, really. One thing that's interesting about the topics you touched on is that almost all of them are so important that they would have merited being #1 on your list. This team is so full of potential, and full of question marks. It's going to be a great ride. Thanks for getting us started, Dave!
Des Esseintes
10-10-2014, 03:30 PM
5. Leadership – Quinn and Amile have been named captains for the season. Both players look to be playing significant minutes. Amile may wind up being the defensive quarterback for this team, which is something last year’s team lacked and caused them to fall short of its potential. Duke needs to communicate to play the aggressive, hedging, switching high-pressure defense that Coach K wants to play. The last team that excelled at that was the 2010 title team with Lance Thomas filling that role. Can Amile play that role from the start? Will the rest of the guys fall in line? How quickly will the freshmen pick up the talk?
Great, cogent post, superdave. This particular point felt somewhat unfair, though. The last Duke team to excel at high-pressure D was 2010? What about 2011, which was a buzzsaw on both ends? Or 2013, which was magnificent defensively while Ryan was whole? Further, 2010 was one of the most reactive, lying-back defensive teams of K's tenure. It was fantastic, no question. I think Duke has had some tremendous defensive years since then, however.
MChambers
10-10-2014, 03:35 PM
Great Phase 0 post, but a couple of comments.
2010 certainly featured excellent defense, but not really high pressure defense. Duke pulled its man-to-man closer to the basket, because of a lack of depth and speed.
Also, I don't see how Duke can run 4 out, 1 in on offense, with Amile and Okafor each getting big minutes. Do you think Jefferson will just set screens? I'd expect to see both of them in the post, at least some of the time.
MCFinARL
10-10-2014, 03:37 PM
Outside Shooting will be a Premium - If this assumption is correct and Duke’s offense runs through Jahlil Okafor, Coach K is likely to employ an offense with Okafor down low and the other four players on the outside. This offense puts a premium on 3-point shooting. Last season, Rasheed shot 41% from 3 and Quinn shot 37%. Quinn’s percentage was actually down a little from his sophomore season. With Quinn likely taking more spot up jumpers, we can reasonably expect his % to go up. It remains to be seen how well Tyus and Justise shoot from deep. From the bench, none of Matt, Grayson or Semi is a proven long-range shooter at the college level either. In addition to playing great team defense, the ability to knock down the 3-ball is a sure way to earn minutes this season. Outside of Quinn and Rasheed, this is a big question mark as practice begins.
Au contraire, Semi has an impressive 57% 3-point shooting percentage from last year. Granted, I am stretching the word "proven" pretty hard, since he achieved this rate on only 7 attempts, presumably mostly in garbage time. But credit where credit is due. :D
More seriously, great post--fasten your seat belts, it's going to be a bumpy ride (but in a good way).
superdave
10-10-2014, 03:41 PM
Great Phase 0 post, but a couple of comments.
2010 certainly featured excellent defense, but not really high pressure defense. Duke pulled its man-to-man closer to the basket, because of a lack of depth and speed.
Also, I don't see how Duke can run 4 out, 1 in on offense, with Amile and Okafor each getting big minutes. Do you think Jefferson will just set screens? I'd expect to see both of them in the post, at least some of the time.
The 2010 team made you run your offense really efficiently because they rarely got beat and they played intensely for the entire shot clock. Not sure I would make that argument for any of the 2011-2014 teams.
As for Amile, I dont really see the team running any plays for him. I can see him setting screens and crashing the boards. If he proves he can knock down an elbow jumper, he may get a few looks. Otherwise I expect him to do a lot of the dirty work.
NSDukeFan
10-10-2014, 04:08 PM
5. Leadership – Quinn and Amile have been named captains for the season. Both players look to be playing significant minutes. Amile may wind up being the defensive quarterback for this team, which is something last year’s team lacked and caused them to fall short of its potential. Duke needs to communicate to play the aggressive, hedging, switching high-pressure defense that Coach K wants to play. The last team that excelled at that was the 2010 title team with Lance Thomas filling that role. Can Amile play that role from the start? Will the rest of the guys fall in line? How quickly will the freshmen pick up the talk?
Excellent start to the phase posts. Basketball season is almost here. Yippee!
Great, cogent post, superdave. This particular point felt somewhat unfair, though. The last Duke team to excel at high-pressure D was 2010? What about 2011, which was a buzzsaw on both ends? Or 2013, which was magnificent defensively while Ryan was whole? Further, 2010 was one of the most reactive, lying-back defensive teams of K's tenure. It was fantastic, no question. I think Duke has had some tremendous defensive years since then, however.
I agree and thought that both Kyle and Ryan played the Lance defensive quarterback role in 2011and 2013 respectively. Wouldn't it be great if Amile could emulate these defensive leaders?
One of last year's major surprises to me was our inability to turn teams over as much as I expected, and get out on the break. With all the quickness and wingspan of
Hood, Parker and Sulaimon, I expected a gaggle of forced turnovers.
A lot of that probably has to do with mediocre to poor pressure on the ball....I'd expected Rasheed to excel in that capacity, but he ended up in Coach K's Kennel early, and
it just didn't happen.
This was something I have expected the past few seasons as well that hasn't occurred. I believe someone posted numbers showing that turnovers were down overall in college basketball as more teams value possession and so turning teams over is a more difficult strategy?
This team is so full of potential, and full of question marks. It's going to be a great ride.
Great line that I completely agree with. Is this team going to be a title contender or will it be too inexperienced or will the pieces not all fit together as we hope they will? It will be fun to find out.
Great Phase 0 post, but a couple of comments.
2010 certainly featured excellent defense, but not really high pressure defense. Duke pulled its man-to-man closer to the basket, because of a lack of depth and speed.
Also, I don't see how Duke can run 4 out, 1 in on offense, with Amile and Okafor each getting big minutes. Do you think Jefferson will just set screens? I'd expect to see both of them in the post, at least some of the time.
It will be interesting to see how the team spaces on offense. I love when the offense runs through the high post and thought Amile was effective there, even if he wasn't shooting. Can Jahlil hit the foul line jumper enough to create space for Amile or Marshall down low and vice versa? Do we want that? I'm excited to see what the staff does with offensive spacing, pace, defensive pressure, Justise guarding mostly wings or bigs, etc.
Bring on the season!
bbosbbos
10-10-2014, 04:25 PM
I do not worry about our O this year. RS, QC & JO will score a lot.
The key is D. K said he would go back to the old training method for our D. Hopefully our frosh can learn Duke D asap.
Anyway very excited for the new season. I want ACC titles (regular & T) and NC from this team. ;););)
Kedsy
10-10-2014, 04:42 PM
Way to start things off, Dave. Nice phase post. That said, of course I have a few comments. ;)
Duke basketball is back with a lot of new faces. Practice is going, Countdown to Craziness is a few weeks away and we have exhibition games 11/4 vs. Livingstone and 11/8 vs. Central Missouri. Without further adieu, let's dig into the team and what we should be looking for as the season unfolds -
It's worth noting that Central Missouri will represent the sixth straight defending Division II Champion that has come to Cameron (the other five were: Drury (2013), Western Washington (2012), Bellarmine (2011), Cal-Poly Pomona (2010), and Findlay (2009)).
I would put Jahlil’s likely offensive usage rate somewhere between 2013 Mason Plumlee’s 24.5% on the low end and 2014 Jabari Parker’s 32.7% on the high end. Along those same lines, I would put Jahlil’s minutes somewhere between Freshman Elton Brand’s 23.5 minutes and Jabari Parker’s 30.7. (Brand averaged 13.4 points and Parker averaged 19.7 points)
I would argue that Jabari's minutes and usage have little relevance to Jahlil's, because Jabari often started with the ball beyond the three-point line, and Jahlil almost never will. I don't have usage numbers for all our past star big men, but I have possession percentages, which is close enough for this discussion:
POSSESSION PERCENTAGE
(starting freshman season and moving forward)
Mason Plumlee: 17.3%, 17.1%, 22.4%, 25.0%
Shelden Williams: 23.2%, 23.8%, 22.4%, 25.5%
Carlos Boozer: 22.1%, 19.7%, 23.5%
Elton Brand: 25.2%, 23.1%
MINUTES PER GAME AS A FRESHMAN
Mason: 14.1
Shelden: 19.2
Carlos: 23.7
Elton: 23.5
The numbers are pretty consistent, and I expect Jahlil to be in line, perhaps a bit on the high side, which would suggest around 25 mpg and a possession percentage/usage rate around 25%. I'll be shocked if Jahlil comes close to either Jabari's 31.7% poss pct or 30.7 mpg.
Outside Shooting will be a Premium - If this assumption is correct and Duke’s offense runs through Jahlil Okafor, Coach K is likely to employ an offense with Okafor down low and the other four players on the outside. This offense puts a premium on 3-point shooting. Last season, Rasheed shot 41% from 3 and Quinn shot 37%. Quinn’s percentage was actually down a little from his sophomore season. With Quinn likely taking more spot up jumpers, we can reasonably expect his % to go up. It remains to be seen how well Tyus and Justise shoot from deep. From the bench, none of Matt, Grayson or Semi is a proven long-range shooter at the college level either. In addition to playing great team defense, the ability to knock down the 3-ball is a sure way to earn minutes this season. Outside of Quinn and Rasheed, this is a big question mark as practice begins.
I completely agree about outside shooting being a key question mark. That said, I don't really expect Jahlil down low and four players on the perimeter, because Amile (and to perhaps a lesser extent Justise) simply won't be very effect on the perimeter. Even if we don't run plays for Amile, he's going to be hanging around the basket.
However, since we'll be employing a lineup with only two or three outside threats, I believe that only makes your point stronger.
Looking back to other seasons with a big man featured in the offense, here is what we may expect. In 1999, Duke actually had a 9-man rotation and averaged 91.8 ppg.
While this appears to be true if you look at the season stats, it's not really true at all. It only looks like Duke played a 9-man rotation because of Elton Brand's injury and the fact that the 98-99 team blew the doors off so many teams. In games decided by fewer than 20 points, we only employed a 7-man rotation -- the 8th man in the 16 such games averaged 6 mpg.
That said, I agree it will be interesting to see how fast a pace we run this year. I'll guess pretty fast.
Backcourt Defensive Assignments – The questions for this backcourt come on the defensive end. Who matches up against a bigger guard? Do we see Tyus and Quinn on the court together for 10 minutes or more like 25 minutes per game? Rasheed should play the 2 any time the Quinn/Tyus combo is not on the court, giving us more size immediately. Behind him is Matt, who also brings size and defensive prowess. We saw a lot of the Quinn/Seth backcourt two seasons ago. It worked sometimes, but not well enough defensively to be excited about. This could be an on-going discussion for the duration. One additional point – If Justise is as good defensively and versatile as advertised, that will help out with smaller backcourt issues quite a bit because he will be able to handle switches well.
As budwom said, I think how good we'll be on defense is this season's team's biggest question mark, if only because of how bad we were last season. I also agree with Des Esseintes, that while Ryan Kelly was healthy, the 2013 team was an excellent defensive team, despite the Quinn/Seth backcourt. Hopefully Amile's experience and Justise's presence will put us closer to 2013 than 2014 defensively.
DukieTiger compared Nolan and Rasheed’s advanced stats in the Pre-Season thread, in an attempt to show that it is not far-fetched to think Rasheed can have a significant leap this year the same way Nolan did his junior season. What stands out in that analysis is Rasheed regressed from .461 to .397 on 2-pointers from his freshman to sophomore seasons. Why is that? I suspect Rasheed was called on to drive the ball more his freshman season, but deferred more to Jabari and Rodney last season. Will he recover? Will Tyus set him up to make more efficient plays and get better shots? If so, Rasheed could score in bunches.
I believe DukieTiger's point in the other thread was that Rasheed's first two years were so much better than Nolan's first two years that he doesn't have to make as big a leap to get to where Nolan was his junior year. That said, rather than a willingness to defer to Jabari and Rodney, I'd suggest Rasheed's problem last season was the opposite -- that for much of the season he seemed reluctant to defer and it hurt both his own game and the team's. Hopefully he's gained the maturity necessary to be a leader, a scorer, and a team-first player this season.
Ideally our team will communicate well and the upper classmen will lead. If those things happen, the team will be able to self-correct when they lose focus. Last season our team would lose focus for stretches and drift, while giving away a lead. Our two main scorers were new and our juniors and seniors were role players. Will we see similar issues this season with three prominent freshmen in the rotation?
This is a really good point. Over the off-season, many have suggested that a young team may be incapable of the high-level intensity and focus to which we've become accustomed as Duke fans. We'll find out soon enough.
Any surprises in store for the season? - Coach K is always good for a new wrinkle or shaking things up if an injury occurs or a scheme is not working. Last year we had lineup changes briefly and the team was historically bad defensively (by Coach K's standards). So what are the possible surprises for this season?
Coach K has essentially promised us surprises in his various interviews. I'm very excited to find out what they'll be.
phaedrus
10-10-2014, 04:54 PM
I expect that Jahlil will immediately prove himself to be one of the best screen-setters in Duke history, and by the end of the season will be widely considered the nation's best setter of screens. It's going to be an exciting season.
bbosbbos
10-10-2014, 04:56 PM
Any evidence to support your expectation? I have never seen his screen setting in highlights.
I expect that Jahlil will immediately prove himself to be one of the best screen-setters in Duke history, and by the end of the season will be widely considered the nation's best setter of screens. It's going to be an exciting season.
sagegrouse
10-10-2014, 05:17 PM
Great start, Superdave! You are setting a very high standard for the Phase Reports.
As I mentally consider the balls with uniform numbers tumbling in the machine, I keep coming back to the huge potential and equally large uncertainty regarding #14, Rasheed Sulaimon. If Sheed plays at an All-ACC level, we could have a legendary team. If he doesn't, we still have a lot of talent: Matt or Allen may get more minutes, and Justise, who will definitely play a lot, may have an expanded role. But Duke could be missing an explosive offensive force and a lockdown defensive stopper on the opponents' best guard.
Kedsy
10-10-2014, 05:31 PM
It only looks like Duke played a 9-man rotation because of Elton Brand's injury and the fact that the 98-99 team blew the doors off so many teams.
Oops, I misspoke. Elton Brand's injury was the year before. So it only looks like we played a deeper rotation because of all the blowouts. In two of our last three NCAAT games in 1999, we only had 6 guys who played double-figure minutes.
NSDukeFan
10-10-2014, 07:52 PM
I expect that Jahlil will immediately prove himself to be one of the best screen-setters in Duke history, and by the end of the season will be widely considered the nation's best setter of screens. It's going to be an exciting season.
I'm pretty sure Amile will have a big role to play here as well. He hasn't gotten bigger and stronger the past couple of years for nothing.
MChambers
10-10-2014, 08:03 PM
I'm pretty sure Amile will have a big role to play here as well. He hasn't gotten bigger and stronger the past couple of years for nothing.
And Marshall is huge, and watched his brothers set screens for several years. Other teams will face a major screen setting deficit.
Of course, if Kennedy Meeks bulks back up, he could set some great screens for UNC, so you've got to consider that.
jimsumner
10-10-2014, 09:15 PM
I think the two juniors will be absolutely crucial.
But Matt Jones also intrigues me. He showed promise as a defender, ball-handler and rebounder. But after coming to Duke with the reputation as one of the best prep shooters in his class, he absolutely stunk as a perimeter shooter.
Was that an aberration or does he have fundamental flaws that preclude him ever being an effective college shooter? If he can regain his shooting mojo, while improving on last season's strengths he can answer a lot of Dave's questions and be a considerable asset.
Kedsy
10-10-2014, 10:00 PM
Was that an aberration or does he have fundamental flaws that preclude him ever being an effective college shooter?
Well, the form on his shot does seem a bit odd. My guess is his effectiveness (or lack thereof) has to do with the speed of the game. In high school, the game probably seemed slow to Matt, being one of the best players in the country. The college game is much faster. Faced with bigger, quicker defenders, he probably rushed his shooting motion, either consciously or subconsciously, and with that odd shooting form the extra speed doomed his accuracy.
But at some point, the college game should slow down for him, too. It does for most good players, anyway. Maybe this year, maybe down the road. Whenever it happens, I suspect that will be the moment when his shots begin to go in again.
Just a guess, of course.
Newton_14
10-10-2014, 10:48 PM
Great phase post Dave. Really well thought out and presented. For me the keys are defense, and then in no particular order, communication and leadership amongst the players on the court, how good the freshman, are, and then as Jim alludes to below...
I think the two juniors will be absolutely crucial.
But Matt Jones also intrigues me. He showed promise as a defender, ball-handler and rebounder. But after coming to Duke with the reputation as one of the best prep shooters in his class, he absolutely stunk as a perimeter shooter.
Was that an aberration or does he have fundamental flaws that preclude him ever being an effective college shooter? If he can regain his shooting mojo, while improving on last season's strengths he can answer a lot of Dave's questions and be a considerable asset.
Amile and Rasheed. Both had their coming out parties so to speak with their leadership and toughness in last seasons home game with UVA. Rasheed hitting the 3 to retake the lead, and Amile battling Joe Harris to the death on the ensuing UVA possession, getting the stop and rebound almost single handily, then making crucial free throws after getting fouled. Those were big moments in their careers. We need them to come up big, along with Quinn so as to not put so much pressure on the freshman to deliver. To optimize the success, I think those 3 have to shoulder a large portion of the load on both ends of the floor so the freshman can just play. Just play. I don't want Jahlil to have to score 25 and Tyus to have to get 12 assists for us to win. Jahlil will be a key feature on offense for sure but like Elton in 98 and really 99 too, the scoring needs to come from several places and I think it will. I think Amile will do more than just get garbage buckets and scores of opportunity. He has great footwork and should finally be strong enough, as a Junior going up against guys his age or younger vs being less strong and going up against bigger, stronger, upperclassmen, to score the ball in the post more often, either off post ups, or short drives. It matters. I think he will get post up opportunities and make good use of them. If Rasheed can be the player we believe he can be, then between he, Amile, and Quinn, we can and should get a lot of points. I do agree that Amile should be the leader on defense and Rasheed can be a strong point and wing defender. Combine that with good Quinn and this team can be really good.
Well, the form on his shot does seem a bit odd. My guess is his effectiveness (or lack thereof) has to do with the speed of the game. In high school, the game probably seemed slow to Matt, being one of the best players in the country. The college game is much faster. Faced with bigger, quicker defenders, he probably rushed his shooting motion, either consciously or subconsciously, and with that odd shooting form the extra speed doomed his accuracy.
But at some point, the college game should slow down for him, too. It does for most good players, anyway. Maybe this year, maybe down the road. Whenever it happens, I suspect that will be the moment when his shots begin to go in again.
Just a guess, of course.
This is as good of a theory as there is I guess. His form is not great, as he has sort of a push-flick, but as we always say, all that matters is a repeatable stroke. Rushing could very well have been his downfall last season. The guy can defend and is big. He needs to get that shot going in to play his way onto the floor.
Edouble
10-11-2014, 01:51 AM
This is as good of a theory as there is I guess. His form is not great, as he has sort of a push-flick, but as we always say, all that matters is a repeatable stroke. Rushing could very well have been his downfall last season. The guy can defend and is big. He needs to get that shot going in to play his way onto the floor.
I think a better theory is that some guys just need more shots. Some players are volume shooters. We saw with Andre last year... sometimes he can come in and shoot 5-6 from beyond the arc, but then sometimes he'll miss his first two and you can just tell it's not his night.
Some guys just can't "pinch hit" three pointers. They need to know they're gonna get 12 shots to relax enough mentally to hit their first attempts.
tommy
10-11-2014, 10:47 AM
I think a better theory is that some guys just need more shots. Some players are volume shooters. We saw with Andre last year... sometimes he can come in and shoot 5-6 from beyond the arc, but then sometimes he'll miss his first two and you can just tell it's not his night.
Some guys just can't "pinch hit" three pointers. They need to know they're gonna get 12 shots to relax enough mentally to hit their first attempts.
We're not going to have that luxury and frankly, that's what warmups are for.
I hope this isn't the case, but if Matt needs that many in-game shots before he relaxes and starts making em, I'm afraid he's going to see a lot of pine time.
Philadukie
10-11-2014, 11:26 AM
I'm curious to what extent folks think the rules changes that were implemented last year will impact the game, and our team, this year. If you remember last year, in the beginning of the season, refs were really focusing on calling hand-checking, post contact, and block calls, due to the rule changes that were made to increase the flow and pace of games. The result was absolutely brutal to watch. Early games with no flow and constant stoppage, so much so that the leagues must have called off the dogs (maybe from pressure from ESPN?), because the refs seemed to ease up about 1/3-1/2 into the season. But the changes still hung over every game thereafter, creating uncertainty and confusion.
It seems to me that K's defensive scheme of extended man-to-man pressure D to stop 3’s and force turnovers relies on two things to work effectively: unrelenting ball pressure, in part aided by some hand-checking from our guards to slow down perimeter penetration (watch some games from the early to mid 2000's and you'll see our guards hand checking A LOT), and effective rotations into the lane by our post players to stop penetration past the guards and hopefully draw a charge, or at least make opposing guards think twice about getting called for a charge. (Think Battier. Not so sure he would’ve have gotten many of those charge calls today).
K's defensive scheme seems more difficult to effectively implement with these new rules. The likely outcome is either lots of hand check fouls on the perimeter, or easy penetration by quick opposing guards because our guys can't stay in front, followed by either relatively easy drives to the lane or risk of block or contact foul calls on our bigs, because it's so hard to get to the spot and plant both feet NOT before the driving player runs into you but before he even leaves the floor. That extra split second is crucial and often the difference between a block and charge call in the past. Most are now blocks.
I assume the rule changes are still in effect this year? And, further, what are folks thoughts on potential impacts?
If the new rules are going to be enforced this year like they were at the beginning of last year, then I hope we go to a sagging man-to-man to clog the lane, more easily stop penetration, and lower the risk of fouls for our bigs, especially when one of those bigs is the most critical piece of the team.
I'm curious to what extent folks think the rules changes that were implemented last year will impact the game, and our team, this year. If you remember last year, in the beginning of the season, refs were really focusing on calling hand-checking, post contact, and block calls, due to the rule changes that were made to increase the flow and pace of games. The result was absolutely brutal to watch. Early games with no flow and constant stoppage, so much so that the leagues must have called off the dogs (maybe from pressure from ESPN?), because the refs seemed to ease up about 1/3-1/2 into the season. But the changes still hung over every game thereafter, creating uncertainty and confusion.
It seems to me that K's defensive scheme of extended man-to-man pressure D to stop 3’s and force turnovers relies on two things to work effectively: unrelenting ball pressure, in part aided by some hand-checking from our guards to slow down perimeter penetration (watch some games from the early to mid 2000's and you'll see our guards hand checking A LOT), and effective rotations into the lane by our post players to stop penetration past the guards and hopefully draw a charge, or at least make opposing guards think twice about getting called for a charge. (Think Battier. Not so sure he would’ve have gotten many of those charge calls today).
K's defensive scheme seems more difficult to effectively implement with these new rules. The likely outcome is either lots of hand check fouls on the perimeter, or easy penetration by quick opposing guards because our guys can't stay in front, followed by either relatively easy drives to the lane or risk of block or contact foul calls on our bigs, because it's so hard to get to the spot and plant both feet NOT before the driving player runs into you but before he even leaves the floor. That extra split second is crucial and often the difference between a block and charge call in the past. Most are now blocks.
I assume the rule changes are still in effect this year? And, further, what are folks thoughts on potential impacts?
If the new rules are going to be enforced this year like they were at the beginning of last year, then I hope we go to a sagging man-to-man to clog the lane, more easily stop penetration, and lower the risk of fouls for our bigs, especially when one of those bigs is the most critical piece of the team.
I think the rule changes have a little bit of an effect, but, and I've mentioned this before over the years, I actually think the forward's ability to hedge on defense is more important than the on-ball defender's ability to stay in front of his man. Duke's defense has never been about completely preventing dribble penetration. It HAS, however, been about forcing the opposing ball handler into specific spots on the floor. Lance Thomas and Brian Zoubek were absolute masters at hedging on ball screens and helping on drives. They hedged without fouling, forcing the ballhandler to go in only one direction while also denying any passes to the screener in pick n' roll/pick n' pop situations. For the fun of it, I watched the title game from that year a few weeks back. The hedging was a sight to behold.
For that matter, Ryan Kelly was also excellent at that type of defense only two seasons ago. As has been noted a number of times, we don't have to go back to 2010 to identify a good defensive Duke team. 2011 and 2013 were both great years, with the caveat that 2013 was only a great year when Ryan was healthy.
Also, despite the lack of size, the 2008 and 2009 teams were actually no slouches defensively, either. The mobility of Kyle, Lance, and David McClure allowed those teams to put pressure on the ball with guys like DeMarcus and Nolan. Yeah, those seasons ended on sour notes. But over all, those teams were good, defensively, despite some severe size issues.
This past season, Jabari was truly awful at hedging. We lament his interior defense in one on one matchups, but I maintain that his poor hedging instincts were far more detrimental to the defense. He allowed opposing ball handlers to go around the screen and face the basket with plenty of space to either shoot or pass. When he actually did hedge hard off of a screen, he often left too much space and the defender would simply run between him and the screened defender with an open lane to the basket. Josh, despite his effort, was pretty poor at hedging, too, as he fouled way too much. Marshall showed some promise. And Amile showed some promise, too. But no one was consistent.
The one trend I do see from all of this is that, with the exception of freshman Kyle in 2008, most of the better Duke defenses in recent years have featured an experienced forward who is comfortable hedging, recovering, and rotating. Amile and Marshall have the potential to fill this role this year. Obviously, we all hope Jahlil shows strong defensive ability, too, but if Amile and Marshall can combine to consistently help contain ball handlers off of screens, I think it will go a long way to making Rasheed, Quinn, and Tyus look good as on-ball defenders.
OldSchool
10-11-2014, 05:22 PM
Great start to the 'Phase' posts.
Some early season questions:
1. Will Jahlil be effective finding and passing to the open man out of double-teams?
2. Will the freshmen be able to play high level defense?
3. Will Tyus be able to break down the defense? I expect to see Tyus take care of the ball, make good passes and hit open shots, but will he also be expected to beat his defender off the dribble? If not, we may see Rasheed given the ball to attack off the dribble. Or will we see a new and improved Quinn with dribble penetration? If none of the above, can Grayson come in and be the x factor on offense?
flagellaman
10-11-2014, 06:53 PM
6. Any surprises in store for the season? - Coach K is always good for a new wrinkle or shaking things up if an injury occurs or a scheme is not working. Last year we had lineup changes briefly and the team was historically bad defensively (by Coach K's standards). So what are the possible surprises for this season?
Given that K flirted with the 5-man line-up changes vs. Virginia that appeared to be successful, I found it somewhat befuddling that K never used it again on a regular basis.
But maybe this year will be different. And be the surprise element that K always seems to conjure up every year.
Perhaps two efficient teams could be assembled as follows:
Okafor - C
Cook - PG
M. Jones - SG
Jefferson - PF
Winslow - SF
Plumlee - C
T. Jones - PG
Allen - SG
Semi - PF
Sulaimon- SF
Both team will run, run, run. Both teams have stud defenders. Both teams have good leadership.
I can see even 20-minute splits for all players. Something K has never done.
Which team would start? Probably the Quin Cook-led team. That team would drive the plays through the frontcourt. The "second" team would be more of a perimeter team with slashers/drivers/dishers. Plumlee doesn't need to do what Okafor can do, but he needs to be smart on positioning and being ready for any multiple of blind dishes coming his way from T. Jones, Allen, and Rasheed, and finding the opening 3-pt. shooter. If Semi has a breakout year like John Smith did his sophomore year in 86-87, then this "second" team suddenly has both an inside and outside game. But only time will tell. Duke has had plenty of sophomores not make the huge leaps that Smith turned in.
Okafor and T Jones came to Duke wanting to play together. Well....that's putting themselves above the team. If Quin and Tyus are interchangeable (again, only time will tell), then I can see occasional switches in the PG position of the two teams. I don't see Quin and Tyus on the floor together much in this two-team scheme. If that happens, it's probably because too many players have fouled out. Both are point guards. They should focus on that.
I can actually see maybe the 2nd team consisting of all the freshman and one other, perhaps something like this:
Okafor - C
T Jones - PG
Allen - SG
Jefferson - PF
Winslow - SF
If T Jones and Okafor are as good as advertised, then this team in itself can be pretty lethal. But we've never seen the four frosh at the college level yet. Unlikely K would ever use this combination other than in a blow-out. But if K does, that leaves the other tag-team to be:
Plumlee - C
Cook - PG
Sulaimon - SG/SF
Semi - PF
M Jones - SF/SG
Not a shabby bunch, especially if Semi has a Smith-moment. But I think I prefer a mix of upperclassmen and freshmen/sophomores.
Kedsy
10-11-2014, 11:40 PM
If none of the above, can Grayson come in and be the x factor on offense?
I wouldn't count on it.
Given that K flirted with the 5-man line-up changes vs. Virginia that appeared to be successful, I found it somewhat befuddling that K never used it again on a regular basis.
But maybe this year will be different. And be the surprise element that K always seems to conjure up every year.
I really wouldn't count on this.
tommy
10-12-2014, 12:43 AM
I'm curious to what extent folks think the rules changes that were implemented last year will impact the game, and our team, this year. If you remember last year, in the beginning of the season, refs were really focusing on calling hand-checking, post contact, and block calls, due to the rule changes that were made to increase the flow and pace of games. The result was absolutely brutal to watch. Early games with no flow and constant stoppage, so much so that the leagues must have called off the dogs (maybe from pressure from ESPN?), because the refs seemed to ease up about 1/3-1/2 into the season. But the changes still hung over every game thereafter, creating uncertainty and confusion.
It seems to me that K's defensive scheme of extended man-to-man pressure D to stop 3’s and force turnovers relies on two things to work effectively: unrelenting ball pressure, in part aided by some hand-checking from our guards to slow down perimeter penetration (watch some games from the early to mid 2000's and you'll see our guards hand checking A LOT), and effective rotations into the lane by our post players to stop penetration past the guards and hopefully draw a charge, or at least make opposing guards think twice about getting called for a charge. (Think Battier. Not so sure he would’ve have gotten many of those charge calls today).
K's defensive scheme seems more difficult to effectively implement with these new rules. The likely outcome is either lots of hand check fouls on the perimeter, or easy penetration by quick opposing guards because our guys can't stay in front, followed by either relatively easy drives to the lane or risk of block or contact foul calls on our bigs, because it's so hard to get to the spot and plant both feet NOT before the driving player runs into you but before he even leaves the floor. That extra split second is crucial and often the difference between a block and charge call in the past. Most are now blocks.
I assume the rule changes are still in effect this year? And, further, what are folks thoughts on potential impacts?
If the new rules are going to be enforced this year like they were at the beginning of last year, then I hope we go to a sagging man-to-man to clog the lane, more easily stop penetration, and lower the risk of fouls for our bigs, especially when one of those bigs is the most critical piece of the team.
First of all, this is a really solid post. The manner in which the new rules were enforced last year, in particular in the first third or so of the season, really changed the game. Whether the players adjusted as the year wore on, or the referees backed off in terms of how tightly they were calling things on the outside, is a matter of opinion, but regardless, it was a different game last year in some important respects. Duke certainly was impacted, as we suffered from foul trouble on a number of occasions, with many of the fouls of the type that likely wouldn't have been called in years past.
We have to be mindful of the fact that the new rules are still in place. If the referees enforce them anywhere near as tightly as they did in, say, the pre-conference season last year, it's going to have an effect on us again. But not only on our ability to defend penetration and our ability to take charges, which have been key factors in our defensive success in many seasons. But the other impact has been on our ability to create live-ball turnovers, and the runouts that follow those turnovers. Back in the day, when we could basically hand-check to our hearts' content, our guards could be in the opposing ballhandlers' shirts, reaching and grabbing and generally harassing them all over the floor without much fear of a foul being called, it was a lot easier to create live-ball turnovers. We didn't seem to do that much at all last year.
Frankly, I'm not sure we should expect a whole lot of it this year either. I know some are expecting us to "run, run, run" more than we have in years, but I don't think so. Sure, we'll push it off of defensive rebounds whenever we can, but we've always done that, as do tons of NCAA teams. But with the difficulty in forcing live-ball turnovers due to the new rules, and the incentive to play more of a sagging, helping man-to-man, encouraging the opponent to take inefficient 2-point jump shots (but not 3's) it seems to me the likelihood of a return to the vintage Duke runs fueled by our defense constantly turning the opponent over in the open floor, leading to layups and dunks, is going to be tough to accomplish.
Edouble
10-12-2014, 01:04 AM
Given that K flirted with the 5-man line-up changes vs. Virginia that appeared to be successful, I found it somewhat befuddling that K never used it again on a regular basis.
But maybe this year will be different. And be the surprise element that K always seems to conjure up every year.
Perhaps two efficient teams could be assembled as follows:
Okafor - C
Cook - PG
M. Jones - SG
Jefferson - PF
Winslow - SF
Plumlee - C
T. Jones - PG
Allen - SG
Semi - PF
Sulaimon- SF
Both team will run, run, run. Both teams have stud defenders. Both teams have good leadership.
I can see even 20-minute splits for all players. Something K has never done.
So why would he do it now, exactly???
This post is kind of crazy, yo. I mean... 20 minute splits for all players? Any coach who plays Semi the same number of minutes as Okafor is a fool. I'm sorry, that's just not going to happen.
Platooning isn't coming back. That ship has sailed, and it sailed last season.
Duke3517
10-12-2014, 06:58 AM
Loved your analysis superdave. I really enjoyed reading it. Coach K doesn't do 20 minute splits. He sticks with about 5-7 guys, maybe 8 and the rest really don't see a lot of playing time.
It is really intriguing that the experts are projecting Okafor to either win player of the year or be a consensus first team all american without playing a game. He must have Anthony Davis type ability which is really good news for Duke.
Defense is the number one concern for me and how well the freshman pick up on Coach K's defensive system. They certainly will have enough talent on the offensive end. To me Duke needs to try to avoid games where they score 80-90 points but also give up 80-90 points. A good disciplined defensive oriented team will counter that eventually.
Really excited for an awesome season!
sagegrouse
10-12-2014, 07:16 AM
I wouldn't count on it.
I really wouldn't count on this.
So why would he do it now, exactly???
This post is kind of crazy, yo. I mean... 20 minute splits for all players? Any coach who plays Semi the same number of minutes as Okafor is a fool. I'm sorry, that's just not going to happen.
Platooning isn't coming back. That ship has sailed, and it sailed last season.
I dunno, guys, but mebbe K has had a late-life conversion. Here are the minutes from FIBA:
Players G Min
S. Curry 9 20.7
K. Thompson 9 23.4
D. Rose 9 17.1
K. Faried 9 21.4
R. Gay 9 14
D. DeRozan 9 11.8
K. Irving 9 24.3
M. Plumlee 9 6.7
D. Cousins 9 13.9
J. Harden 9 22
A. Davis 9 19.7
A. Drummond 8 5.8
Ten guys averaging more than 11.8 MPG, and the USA had its most dominant international tournament of the Coangelo-Coach K era. We have three, mebbe four, freshman who are gonna play; three veterans who were effective last year but at less than an All-ACC level; and the most overlooked category in college hoops -- three talented players who were on the bench.
To wit, everyone concedes that Jah, Justise and Tyus will be focal points for the team. We see Quinn with his shooting and savvy defense as a cog on the team; Rasheed as a real talent and potential All-ACC player; and Amile as the leader of the team on the court and a late-bloomer on offense. I have previously argued that MP3 could and should get 20 MPG. Moreover, Matt and Semis are studs that may be ready for prime time. What's not to like about a deep rotation?
Moreover, K was dis-GUSTED with the end to last season, and he is likely to shake things up big-time.
It could happen, and you read it here -- second.
Kindly, Sage
MCFinARL
10-12-2014, 09:42 AM
Okafor and T Jones came to Duke wanting to play together. Well....that's putting themselves above the team.
That is one way of looking at it. But another way is that these are players who already know each other and each other's games--giving them a leg up on a lot of freshmen. Of course you are right that if Coach K concludes it would work better for Okafor and T. Jones not to play together much, that is what will happen--and it appears they are both fairly mature, so I'm sure they will handle it. But I doubt that is what will happen.
I dunno, guys, but mebbe K has had a late-life conversion. Here are the minutes from FIBA:
Players G Min
S. Curry 9 20.7
K. Thompson 9 23.4
D. Rose 9 17.1
K. Faried 9 21.4
R. Gay 9 14
D. DeRozan 9 11.8
K. Irving 9 24.3
M. Plumlee 9 6.7
D. Cousins 9 13.9
J. Harden 9 22
A. Davis 9 19.7
A. Drummond 8 5.8
Ten guys averaging more than 11.8 MPG, and the USA had its most dominant international tournament of the Coangelo-Coach K era. We have three, mebbe four, freshman who are gonna play; three veterans who were effective last year but at less than an All-ACC level; and the most overlooked category in college hoops -- three talented players who were on the bench.
To wit, everyone concedes that Jah, Justise and Tyus will be focal points for the team. We see Quinn with his shooting and savvy defense as a cog on the team; Rasheed as a real talent and potential All-ACC player; and Amile as the leader of the team on the court and a late-bloomer on offense. I have previously argued that MP3 could and should get 20 MPG. Moreover, Matt and Semis are studs that may be ready for prime time. What's not to like about a deep rotation?
Moreover, K was dis-GUSTED with the end to last season, and he is likely to shake things up big-time.
It could happen, and you read it here -- second.
Kindly, Sage
I would LOVE to see this happen. I think the team has the players for it, and there were certainly some times last year when players like Jabari appeared gassed--so this approach would reduce the likelihood of that. But I'm not betting the ranch.
roywhite
10-12-2014, 10:19 AM
Ten guys averaging more than 11.8 MPG, and the USA had its most dominant international tournament of the Coangelo-Coach K era. We have three, mebbe four, freshman who are gonna play; three veterans who were effective last year but at less than an All-ACC level; and the most overlooked category in college hoops -- three talented players who were on the bench.
.... Moreover, Matt and Semis are studs that may be ready for prime time. What's not to like about a deep rotation?
Moreover, K was dis-GUSTED with the end to last season, and he is likely to shake things up big-time.
It could happen, and you read it here -- second.
Kindly, Sage
I would LOVE to see this happen. I think the team has the players for it, and there were certainly some times last year when players like Jabari appeared gassed--so this approach would reduce the likelihood of that. But I'm not betting the ranch.
Not only the USA team at the recent FIBA World Cup, but the age group USA teams have used a similar formula of a deep rotation and occasional platoon substitutions. The Duke freshmen have a lot of international experience, and have seen the advantages of depth.
The analytics certainly indicate an historical pattern in Coach K's rotations, but I too like the idea of a change this season, with more use of players 7 to 10.
MChambers
10-12-2014, 11:05 AM
Not only the USA team at the recent FIBA World Cup, but the age group USA teams have used a similar formula of a deep rotation and occasional platoon substitutions. The Duke freshmen have a lot of international experience, and have seen the advantages of depth.
The analytics certainly indicate an historical pattern in Coach K's rotations, but I too like the idea of a change this season, with more use of players 7 to 10.
I think that the talent drop off between 1-7 and 8-10 is far bigger on a college roster than on a USA FIBA roster, even with as talented as roster as Duke's. I just don't see Plumlee, Jones, Olejeye, and Allen taking many minutes away from Duke's top 5. I hope they are good enough to prove me wrong, but I don't expect it.
Clay Feet POF
10-12-2014, 11:06 AM
So why would he do it now, exactly???
This post is kind of crazy, yo. I mean... 20 minute splits for all players? Any coach who plays Semi the same number of minutes as Okafor is a fool. I'm sorry, that's just not going to happen.
Platooning isn't coming back. That ship has sailed, and it sailed last season.
Your Right of course,.....But the Ship did appear ....and why was that??
roywhite
10-12-2014, 11:34 AM
I think that the talent drop off between 1-7 and 8-10 is far bigger on a college roster than on a USA FIBA roster, even with as talented as roster as Duke's. I just don't see Plumlee, Jones, Olejeye, and Allen taking many minutes away from Duke's top 5. I hope they are good enough to prove me wrong, but I don't expect it.
Maybe so, but they all came in with decent credentials:
Plumlee, Jones, and Allen were McDonald's All-Americans
The RSCI rankings were:
Semi 32
Grayson 24
Matt 34
Marshall 61
Seems to me the Lehigh/Mercer results along with the USA Basketball template might produce changes in the way the staff utilizes depth.
budwom
10-12-2014, 12:25 PM
Maybe so, but they all came in with decent credentials:
Plumlee, Jones, and Allen were McDonald's All-Americans
The RSCI rankings were:
Semi 32
Grayson 24
Matt 34
Marshall 61
Seems to me the Lehigh/Mercer results along with the USA Basketball template might produce changes in the way the staff utilizes depth.
As I do every year, I hope for it but don't expect it at all.
Maybe so, but they all came in with decent credentials:
Plumlee, Jones, and Allen were McDonald's All-Americans
The RSCI rankings were:
Semi 32
Grayson 24
Matt 34
Marshall 61
Seems to me the Lehigh/Mercer results along with the USA Basketball template might produce changes in the way the staff utilizes depth.
I am pretty sure that depth is not the main reason we win in FIBA. Similarly, I am pretty sure that neglect of depth is not the solution to the Lehigh/Mercer losses.
Kedsy
10-12-2014, 02:36 PM
It could happen, and you read it here -- second.
Let's play a game: pretend you're a captain on the playground and you get to pick your team from among Duke's players, and every minute is a new game. Let's start at center: in the first minute, you take Jahlil over Marshall, then again the second minute, etc. For how many minutes would Jahlil be the pick if you're trying to win? For example's sake, let's say it's a no-brainer up to the 20th minute. At that point you have to choose between a Jahlil who's played 20 minutes, with however many fouls he accumulated, vs. a completely fresh Marshall (with no fouls), so maybe you take Marshall for that minute, maybe for a few minutes. But at some point, after Marshall has played 5 or 10 minutes, you go back to Jahlil, right? For at least another five or ten minutes, which is why on average Jahlil will probably play between 25 and 30 minutes and Marshall will probably play between 10 and 15.
The same thing happens at every position, although obviously it's not binary, because most players can play more than one position, so for example at some point you might have to choose between an Amile who's played 20 minutes, a Justise who's played 15 minutes but at a different position, and a Semi who's completely fresh. And so on.
If you play this exercise honestly, there's no way you end up with 10 players each getting 20 minutes, or anything close to that. You get the top six players getting as many minutes as they can handle without losing effectiveness, and two or three guys filling in the gaps, and the last few guys just getting table scraps. Which is what happens at Duke pretty much every season.
Being "dis-GUSTED with the end to last season," doesn't change the fact that playing the lesser players the same amount as the better players isn't the best recipe for winning (unless the non-starters are pretty much just as good as the starters, which is rarely if ever the case, and does not appear to be the case for Duke this season). Although having said that, I'm not sure I buy your premise. I haven't seen any real evidence that Coach K was any more disgusted last season than in any other season where we lost to a team we should have beaten. And despite K's promise of new wrinkles, I haven't seen any evidence that "he is likely to shake things up big-time," either.
I didn't expect the line-change thing last season, but I wasn't surprised when it stopped. I'd be shocked if it became a staple this season. Like most people, I enjoy it when everyone plays, however if I were the coach and winning was paramount, I might go a little bit deeper than Coach K does, but probably not very much.
sagegrouse
10-12-2014, 04:01 PM
Let's play a game: pretend you're a captain on the playground and you get to pick your team from among Duke's players, and every minute is a new game. Let's start at center: in the first minute, you take Jahlil over Marshall, then again the second minute, etc. For how many minutes would Jahlil be the pick if you're trying to win? For example's sake, let's say it's a no-brainer up to the 20th minute. At that point you have to choose between a Jahlil who's played 20 minutes, with however many fouls he accumulated, vs. a completely fresh Marshall (with no fouls), so maybe you take Marshall for that minute, maybe for a few minutes. But at some point, after Marshall has played 5 or 10 minutes, you go back to Jahlil, right? For at least another five or ten minutes, which is why on average Jahlil will probably play between 25 and 30 minutes and Marshall will probably play between 10 and 15.
The same thing happens at every position, although obviously it's not binary, because most players can play more than one position, so for example at some point you might have to choose between an Amile who's played 20 minutes, a Justise who's played 15 minutes but at a different position, and a Semi who's completely fresh. And so on.
If you play this exercise honestly, there's no way you end up with 10 players each getting 20 minutes, or anything close to that. You get the top six players getting as many minutes as they can handle without losing effectiveness, and two or three guys filling in the gaps, and the last few guys just getting table scraps. Which is what happens at Duke pretty much every season.
Being "dis-GUSTED with the end to last season," doesn't change the fact that playing the lesser players the same amount as the better players isn't the best recipe for winning (unless the non-starters are pretty much just as good as the starters, which is rarely if ever the case, and does not appear to be the case for Duke this season). Although having said that, I'm not sure I buy your premise. I haven't seen any real evidence that Coach K was any more disgusted last season than in any other season where we lost to a team we should have beaten. And despite K's promise of new wrinkles, I haven't seen any evidence that "he is likely to shake things up big-time," either.
I didn't expect the line-change thing last season, but I wasn't surprised when it stopped. I'd be shocked if it became a staple this season. Like most people, I enjoy it when everyone plays, however if I were the coach and winning was paramount, I might go a little bit deeper than Coach K does, but probably not very much.
You have to admit -- these first four words are the dumbest thing I've written here -- that we have the gathering of the perfect storm. The three best players on the team do not have a second of college experience; the three returning starters have never even sniffed All-ACC honorable mention; the three players who mostly sat last year have size, muscle, a modicum of skill, and a nasty disposition. And the odd man out, Allen Grayson, has been the subject of planted stories that he could be THE key reserve.
Moreover, channeling K as though I were his father confessor, ("Sage Father," to you) he has a pristine global estate, dominating the international basketball scene for the past seven years and last month overwhelming all opponents with a young untested team. In contrast, his own backyard is a trash heap: no championships of any kind in three years and an ignominious end to the 2014 season -- and this, after winning 10 ACC's in 13 years and earlier making seven Final Fours in nine years. This ain't gonna work, he says and he is about to seriously alter the Duke landscape and do something really different: new sod, new plants, new pavement, whatever.
I predict that everyone's gonna get a really good chance to show what he can do. If the freshmen start, the veterans will get lots of minutes. If the veterans start, no one is gonna keep the freshmen on the bench. Will this boil down to seven or eight rotation players by Valentine's Day? That may be right, but I don't think so. Maybe there'll be an evolving rotation of eight players, but maybe more will play every game, and we will see 9-10 players routinely getting double-digit minutes.
Ain't preseason fun??
Bay Area Duke Fan
10-12-2014, 04:41 PM
the three returning starters have never even sniffed All-ACC honorable mention;
A bit more than "sniffed." Quinn Cook was 3rd team All-ACC in 2012-13, his sophomore year. Rasheed Sulaimon was on All-ACC freshman team in 2012-13.
sagegrouse
10-12-2014, 04:47 PM
A bit more than "sniffed." Quinn Cook was 3rd team All-ACC in 2012-13, his sophomore year. Rasheed Sulaimon was on All-ACC freshman team in 2012-13.
Good pickup: revised now to read, "the three returning starters received no mention on All-ACC teams in 2014;"
roywhite
10-13-2014, 09:33 AM
Countdown 2 Countdown - Episode 2 - Strength & Speed (http://www.goduke.com/mediaPortal/player.dbml?&db_oem_id=4200&id=3471494)
7+ minute video from goduke.com
Always important, but seems to be extra emphasis on getting this team stronger.
slower
10-13-2014, 09:57 AM
And the odd man out, Allen Grayson
Really? We'll give you a typo/spellcheck mulligan on this one!:p
sagegrouse
10-13-2014, 10:18 AM
And the odd man out, Allen Grayson, has been the subject of planted stories that he could be THE key reserve.
Ain't preseason fun??
Really? We'll give you a typo/spellcheck mulligan on this one!:p
The problem, as some will appreciate, is that there is a truly wild and crazy Congressman, also from Florida, named Alan Grayson. His most famous quote is this: "The [opponents] have a health care plan for America: don’t get sick…. [They] have a back plan if you do get sick. If you get sick, America, [their] plan is this: die quickly."
I know "our guy's" name is Allen, not Alan, but darned if I can remember whether "Allen" or "Grayson" comes first. Well, when he becomes our "key reserve," everyone will remember "Grayson Allen."
MChambers
10-13-2014, 10:42 AM
The problem, as some will appreciate, is that there is a truly wild and crazy Congressman, also from Florida, named Alan Grayson. His most famous quote is this: "The [opponents] have a health care plan for America: don’t get sick…. [They] have a back plan if you do get sick. If you get sick, America, [their] plan is this: die quickly."
I know "our guy's" name is Allen, not Alan, but darned if I can remember whether "Allen" or "Grayson" comes first. Well, when he becomes our "key reserve," everyone will remember "Grayson Allen."
I'm just glad to know it's not Alan Grayson who will be a key reserve for Duke this year.
sagegrouse
10-13-2014, 11:06 AM
I'm just glad to know it's not Alan Grayson who will be a key reserve for Duke this year.
As one commenter asked, "Can our guy Grayson go well to his left, too?" We'll see.
MChambers
10-13-2014, 11:50 AM
As one commenter asked, "Can our guy Grayson go well to his left, too?" We'll see.
And bounce back from tough losses, too.
ChillinDuke
10-13-2014, 12:36 PM
Let's play a game: pretend you're a captain on the playground and you get to pick your team from among Duke's players, and every minute is a new game. Let's start at center: in the first minute, you take Jahlil over Marshall, then again the second minute, etc. For how many minutes would Jahlil be the pick if you're trying to win? For example's sake, let's say it's a no-brainer up to the 20th minute. At that point you have to choose between a Jahlil who's played 20 minutes, with however many fouls he accumulated, vs. a completely fresh Marshall (with no fouls), so maybe you take Marshall for that minute, maybe for a few minutes. But at some point, after Marshall has played 5 or 10 minutes, you go back to Jahlil, right? For at least another five or ten minutes, which is why on average Jahlil will probably play between 25 and 30 minutes and Marshall will probably play between 10 and 15.
The same thing happens at every position, although obviously it's not binary, because most players can play more than one position, so for example at some point you might have to choose between an Amile who's played 20 minutes, a Justise who's played 15 minutes but at a different position, and a Semi who's completely fresh. And so on.
If you play this exercise honestly, there's no way you end up with 10 players each getting 20 minutes, or anything close to that. You get the top six players getting as many minutes as they can handle without losing effectiveness, and two or three guys filling in the gaps, and the last few guys just getting table scraps. Which is what happens at Duke pretty much every season.
Being "dis-GUSTED with the end to last season," doesn't change the fact that playing the lesser players the same amount as the better players isn't the best recipe for winning (unless the non-starters are pretty much just as good as the starters, which is rarely if ever the case, and does not appear to be the case for Duke this season). Although having said that, I'm not sure I buy your premise. I haven't seen any real evidence that Coach K was any more disgusted last season than in any other season where we lost to a team we should have beaten. And despite K's promise of new wrinkles, I haven't seen any evidence that "he is likely to shake things up big-time," either.
I didn't expect the line-change thing last season, but I wasn't surprised when it stopped. I'd be shocked if it became a staple this season. Like most people, I enjoy it when everyone plays, however if I were the coach and winning was paramount, I might go a little bit deeper than Coach K does, but probably not very much.
As you yourself stated above, none of this is binary. The question (and answer) that we pose should not be whether Coach K will or won't play 7-8 players. It should be to what extent. At least that's how I see it. While I'm still squarely on the Kedsy side of the spectrum re: to what extent, I don't think Sage is off the reservation to hypothesize a scenario (and the reasons for it) in which this season may look different.
Said differently, I think that the sequence of events leading up to this season give us considerably more and considerably stronger reasons to ponder a change in philosophy. Do I think that means a change will be clearly evident? No, I don't. But I do think the playing time conversation (who starts, etc) has significantly more ambiguity heading into this season than it has in my time on this board (~ 6 years). Even if it's 70% likely that K goes 7-8 deep this year, that's a hefty discount from where I would have pegged that likelihood at any point in the last half decade (at the very least).
One other side note, in response to your not seeing any real evidence that K was more disgusted after last season, I don't recall a post-season presser in which K was so transparently blaming himself and admitting to shortcomings of the team/season. Now admittedly, I don't recall any other post-season pressers at the moment (nor do I recall what I had for breakfast). But it certainly does not seem in keeping with K's personality to say things like we lacked leadership - so clearly calling out the team (perhaps even Quinn). While I don't have time to go back and watch the presser, that context and tone resonates in my memory as someone who would strongly reevaluate all aspects of the program and the way things are being done.
$0.02 (tab: $14.42)
- Chillin
Kedsy
10-13-2014, 12:58 PM
One other side note, in response to your not seeing any real evidence that K was more disgusted after last season, I don't recall a post-season presser in which K was so transparently blaming himself and admitting to shortcomings of the team/season. Now admittedly, I don't recall any other post-season pressers at the moment (nor do I recall what I had for breakfast). But it certainly does not seem in keeping with K's personality to say things like we lacked leadership - so clearly calling out the team (perhaps even Quinn). While I don't have time to go back and watch the presser, that context and tone resonates in my memory as someone who would strongly reevaluate all aspects of the program and the way things are being done.
You may be right, I'm not sure. And I haven't watched many season-ending press conferences. But I do seem to recall several "soul searching" interviews/press conferences after seasons that didn't end the way we wanted them to. Most that I remember took place over the summer, or the start of the next school year, in essence talking about how the new team was going to be different rather than about the previous team's failings. So maybe that's a difference, or maybe this time he was merely trying to light the fire under Quinn and the other upperclassmen earlier rather than later.
All that said, I still don't get the vibe that he's doing anything or planning on changing anything out of "disgust." I do get the vibe that he's trying to plant an urgency with all the players and re-create an atmosphere where everyone, players and coaches alike, apply intensity to every single moment, both on the court and off. Whether that mindset alters the way he plays his rotation, we'll have to wait and see. Personally, I doubt it, or at least I doubt it'll happen in any way that is (as you say) clearly evident to us fans.
Saratoga2
10-13-2014, 02:01 PM
As you yourself stated above, none of this is binary. The question (and answer) that we pose should not be whether Coach K will or won't play 7-8 players. It should be to what extent. At least that's how I see it. While I'm still squarely on the Kedsy side of the spectrum re: to what extent, I don't think Sage is off the reservation to hypothesize a scenario (and the reasons for it) in which this season may look different.
Said differently, I think that the sequence of events leading up to this season give us considerably more and considerably stronger reasons to ponder a change in philosophy. Do I think that means a change will be clearly evident? No, I don't. But I do think the playing time conversation (who starts, etc) has significantly more ambiguity heading into this season than it has in my time on this board (~ 6 years). Even if it's 70% likely that K goes 7-8 deep this year, that's a hefty discount from where I would have pegged that likelihood at any point in the last half decade (at the very least).
One other side note, in response to your not seeing any real evidence that K was more disgusted after last season, I don't recall a post-season presser in which K was so transparently blaming himself and admitting to shortcomings of the team/season. Now admittedly, I don't recall any other post-season pressers at the moment (nor do I recall what I had for breakfast). But it certainly does not seem in keeping with K's personality to say things like we lacked leadership - so clearly calling out the team (perhaps even Quinn). While I don't have time to go back and watch the presser, that context and tone resonates in my memory as someone who would strongly reevaluate all aspects of the program and the way things are being done.
$0.02 (tab: $14.42)
- Chillin
Another approach is to ask how many minutes the starters are likey to get per game and then postulate who the 6th, 7th wnr 8th men will be.
If the starters are as posulated by some as:
1. Quinn Cook 32 min
2. Rasheed Sulaimon 30 min
3. Jahlil Okafor 25 min
4. Amile Jefferson 28 min
5. Justise Winslow 28 min
That leaves a pathway to postulate who is like to get the remaining minutes
6. Tyus Jones 22 min
7. Marshall Plumlee 12 min
8. Semi Ojeleye 8 min
9. Matt Jones 8 min
10. Grayson Allen 4 min
11. Rest 3 min
There are all sorts of arguments you can make about PT and even who the starters should and will be. I believe the numbers are supportable for the following reasons:
Okafor is a freshman big man is unlikely to get much more than 25 min/g despite his obvious skills.
Plumee is still a back up player and will get time because of his size and not his skill
Cook is a solid point guard and will lead the team in time because of it.
Tyus Jones is a gifted PG and will get solid time as he gets accustomed to college play. Having two smallish PGs on the floor together may hurt the defense.
Sulaimon has progressed and is an experienced player with good length who should be a mainstay. He could get more time except for the fact there are reasonable backups.
Matt Jones and Allen should be able to get some of the time when Sulaimon is off court although Tyus will get some of that as well.
Jefferson is a solid player and is expected to be recovered from surgery and should get starters minutes. Ojeleye and Winslow are reasonable backups for him
Winslow at small forward is my pencil in even though unproven. Ojeleye, Matt Jones and even Allen may get some time.
Obi can't play but should be benficial to Okafor as he learns to play against powerful big men in practice.
sagegrouse
10-13-2014, 02:12 PM
Another approach is to ask how many minutes the starters are likey to get per game and then postulate who the 6th, 7th wnr 8th men will be.
If the starters are as posulated by some as:
1. Quinn Cook 32 min
2. Rasheed Sulaimon 30 min
3. Jahlil Okafor 25 min
4. Amile Jefferson 28 min
5. Justise Winslow 28 min
That leaves a pathway to postulate who is like to get the remaining minutes
6. Tyus Jones 22 min
7. Marshall Plumlee 12 min
8. Semi Ojeleye 8 min
9. Matt Jones 8 min
10. Grayson Allen 4 min
11. Rest 3 min
There are all sorts of arguments you can make about PT and even who the starters should and will be. I believe the numbers are supportable for the following reasons:
Okafor is a freshman big man is unlikely to get much more than 25 min/g despite his obvious skills.
Plumee is still a back up player and will get time because of his size and not his skill
Cook is a solid point guard and will lead the team in time because of it.
Tyus Jones is a gifted PG and will get solid time as he gets accustomed to college play. Having two smallish PGs on the floor together may hurt the defense.
Sulaimon has progressed and is an experienced player with good length who should be a mainstay. He could get more time except for the fact there are reasonable backups.
Matt Jones and Allen should be able to get some of the time when Sulaimon is off court although Tyus will get some of that as well.
Jefferson is a solid player and is expected to be recovered from surgery and should get starters minutes. Ojeleye and Winslow are reasonable backups for him
Winslow at small forward is my pencil in even though unproven. Ojeleye, Matt Jones and even Allen may get some time.
Obi can't play but should be benficial to Okafor as he learns to play against powerful big men in practice.
In addition to my "contrarian" prediction above, I tend to resist the "allocation of minutes" approach because I don't know what it means. Is this the allocation on the first of February? The beginning of the ACC tournament? The Coaches vs. Cancer tournament? Surely the rotation, even if horribly constricted to seven-eight players, will evolve over the course of the season, thereby spreading the wealth of playing time across the roster. (And I recognize that you do have minutes for ten players, which is more than conventional wisdom would dictate for Duke playing time.) And, of course, there wil inevitably be guys who miss games due to illness or injury, meaning that the average MPG will be greater than 200.
I take issue with what you say about MP3, because "running the court" is definitely a skill for a seven-footer. The other thing is, even if I am not on my revanchist mission, neither Jahlil, Tyus or Justise will understand Duke defense when the season starts and, at best, may be OK by the middle of the ACC schedule. Of course, there is a first time for everything, but I have been watching Duke hoops basically forever.
Kedsy
10-13-2014, 02:14 PM
6. Tyus Jones 22 min
I think your analysis is reasonable, except the coaching staff has already pretty much announced that Tyus will start, despite the potential defensive issues of Tyus playing in a small backcourt with Quinn. As such, your minutes for Tyus are probably low.
11. Rest 3 min
Also, as talented as our 10 scholarship players are, the walkons should only see time in the last minute or so of blowouts. I'll be very surprised if they log even close to 3mpg that could go to, e.g., Matt, Semi, Grayson.
Kedsy
10-13-2014, 02:20 PM
The other thing is, even if I am not on my revanchist mission, neither Jahlil, Tyus or Justise will understand Duke defense when the season starts and, at best, may be OK by the middle of the ACC schedule. Of course, there is a first time for everything, but I have been watching Duke hoops basically forever.
There have been freshmen who got Duke defense from Day 1, and were much better than OK by the middle of the ACC schedule (G Hill, Battier, Amaker, Duhon come to mind; I could probably come up with more if I had to). If some subset of this year's freshmen get it, it wouldn't be close to a first time.
... Also, as talented as our 10 scholarship players are, the walkons should only see time in the last minute or so of blowouts. I'll be very surprised if they log even close to 3mpg that could go to, e.g., Matt, Semi, Grayson.
There's the rub ...
If three walkons play in 2 blow out games, getting 1 minute each in each of the 2 games and then get 40 DNPCDs. Don't each of them average 1 mpg for the season?
Thus our team could cumulatively average More than 200 mpg.
And our whole solar system could be, like one tiny atom in the fingernail of some giant being
MChambers
10-13-2014, 03:09 PM
There have been freshmen who got Duke defense from Day 1, and were much better than OK by the middle of the ACC schedule (G Hill, Battier, Amaker, Duhon come to mind; I could probably come up with more if I had to). If some subset of this year's freshmen get it, it wouldn't be close to a first time.
I think Brand got it from day one. Billy King definitely did. Singler was pretty darned good, even (arguably) out of position as a freshman.
Kedsy
10-13-2014, 03:16 PM
There's the rub ...
If three walkons play in 2 blow out games, getting 1 minute each in each of the 2 games and then get 40 DNPCDs. Don't each of them average 1 mpg for the season?
Thus our team could cumulatively average More than 200 mpg.
And our whole solar system could be, like one tiny atom in the fingernail of some giant being
Well, if you count DNPs as 0 minutes, then this problem goes away. Maybe not the fingernail issue, but the rest of it for sure.
flyingdutchdevil
10-13-2014, 03:33 PM
I think Brand got it from day one. Billy King definitely did. Singler was pretty darned good, even (arguably) out of position as a freshman.
Elliot Williams, McRoberts, Daniel Ewing, and Deng are more modern examples and competent as freshman defenders.
Of course, for every Amaker or Duhon you get a Jabari and a Paulus.
Kedsy
10-13-2014, 03:43 PM
Of course, for every Amaker or Duhon you get a Jabari and a Paulus.
Well, except Jabari and Greg simply weren't very good defenders. Not sure it had to do with their being freshmen. The original assertions being discussed involved whether any freshman could "understand Duke defense when the season starts" and whether freshmen, "at best, may be OK by the middle of the ACC schedule," and the suggestion that if our current freshmen exceeded those defensive expectations it would be a "first time."
Elliot Williams, McRoberts, Daniel Ewing, and Deng are more modern examples and competent as freshman defenders.
Of course, for every Amaker or Duhon you get a Jabari and a Paulus.
I would throw Jon Scheyer into the batch of freshman defensive performers. 2007 was a tough year for the team, but the defense was really good and Jon played a bigger role in that than people remember. Actually, Jon's off the ball defense was really impressive for his whole career.
MChambers
10-13-2014, 08:11 PM
Elliot Williams, McRoberts, Daniel Ewing, and Deng are more modern examples and competent as freshman defenders.
Of course, for every Amaker or Duhon you get a Jabari and a Paulus.
Not more modern than Singler! Or only Williams so qualifies.
Newton_14
10-13-2014, 09:14 PM
Well, except Jabari and Greg simply weren't very good defenders. Not sure it had to do with their being freshmen. The original assertions being discussed involved whether any freshman could "understand Duke defense when the season starts" and whether freshmen, "at best, may be OK by the middle of the ACC schedule," and the suggestion that if our current freshmen exceeded those defensive expectations it would be a "first time."
I would put Tyler Thornton in that category. The Maryland home game his Freshman year was a coming out party of sorts. Light bulb came on.
I think people are downplaying both Tyus and Winslow. I expect both to play 25+ minutes. 25 is the likely ceiling for Jahlil due to him being a freshman center alone. Marshall will get the lion share of the other 15 minutes, unless small ball is wildly successful with Amile at the 5 and Winslow at the 4. I do not expect to see a lot of that though. I would think one of Jahlil and Marshall will be on the floor at all times and going small will mean Winslow or Semi at the 4 when Amile rests.
If we play Amile at the 5 for any minutes we will almost have to go as big as possible with the other spots. Something like a perimeter of Rasheed, Matt, Winslow, Semi, and Amile or either of Quinn/Tyus with any 3 of Rasheed/Matt/Semi/Grayson/Winslow, and Amile at the 5. Either scenario is pretty small but with quickness, strength and size at the 2 and 3 spots, and very athletic at the 4.
It will be interesting to see the various combinations K rolls out in the early going. I was about to type that I really don't expect to see a lot of Amile at the 5, but if MP3 stumbles at all, or God forbid gets injured, we have no other option there.
OldSchool
10-14-2014, 10:56 PM
I would put Tyler Thornton in that category. The Maryland home game his Freshman year was a coming out party of sorts. Light bulb came on.
I think people are downplaying both Tyus and Winslow. I expect both to play 25+ minutes. 25 is the likely ceiling for Jahlil due to him being a freshman center alone. Marshall will get the lion share of the other 15 minutes, unless small ball is wildly successful with Amile at the 5 and Winslow at the 4. I do not expect to see a lot of that though. I would think one of Jahlil and Marshall will be on the floor at all times and going small will mean Winslow or Semi at the 4 when Amile rests.
If we play Amile at the 5 for any minutes we will almost have to go as big as possible with the other spots. Something like a perimeter of Rasheed, Matt, Winslow, Semi, and Amile or either of Quinn/Tyus with any 3 of Rasheed/Matt/Semi/Grayson/Winslow, and Amile at the 5. Either scenario is pretty small but with quickness, strength and size at the 2 and 3 spots, and very athletic at the 4.
It will be interesting to see the various combinations K rolls out in the early going. I was about to type that I really don't expect to see a lot of Amile at the 5, but if MP3 stumbles at all, or God forbid gets injured, we have no other option there.
Yes, I think we will see the lineup of Tyus, Quinn, Rasheed, Justise and Amile. Perhaps with a variation of Matt or Grayson in for any guard who finds his way into the doghouse for a while. This could be a very effective lineup in terms of quickness and high basketball IQ while Jahlil is resting.
subzero02
10-15-2014, 01:04 AM
Yes, I think we will see the lineup of Tyus, Quinn, Rasheed, Justise and Amile. Perhaps with a variation of Matt or Grayson in for any guard who finds his way into the doghouse for a while. This could be a very effective lineup in terms of quickness and high basketball IQ while Jahlil is resting.
I don't know how effective of a defensive rebounder Justise is but that lineup could really get punished on the boards.
roywhite
10-15-2014, 07:55 AM
I don't know how effective of a defensive rebounder Justise is but that lineup could really get punished on the boards.
In USA basketball international competitions, Justise was an outstanding rebounder. Still, it would be a challenge for him going against ACC players inside who have a 3 or 4 inch height advantage.
budwom
10-15-2014, 09:02 AM
If we have a seven footer and a 6-11 guy, it would probably be a good idea to have one of them in the game as often as possible.
Saratoga2
10-15-2014, 10:13 AM
If we have a seven footer and a 6-11 guy, it would probably be a good idea to have one of them in the game as often as possible.
Looking at the team photo makes me believe that Marshall is at least 2 inches taller than Okafor. I believe Marshall is a true 7 footer but Okafor is more like 6'10". I don't mean that as a negative against Okafor as someone that big with his skills is a unique individual, but I doubt if he is 6'11".
In USA basketball international competitions, Justise was an outstanding rebounder. Still, it would be a challenge for him going against ACC players inside who have a 3 or 4 inch height advantage.
Yeah, I agree. I don't see a really good reason to go with a lineup of T. Jones/Cook/Sulaimon/Winslow/Jefferson. That would be an undersized group at every position.
Frankly, I don't see a good reason not to have one of our two bigs on the floor at all times. But if we do need to go with Jefferson at C for a brief stretch (say if both Okafor and Plumlee are in foul trouble), I'd expect to see both Winslow and Ojeleye on the floor as well.
superdave
10-15-2014, 12:03 PM
Yeah, I agree. I don't see a really good reason to go with a lineup of T. Jones/Cook/Sulaimon/Winslow/Jefferson. That would be an undersized group at every position.
Frankly, I don't see a good reason not to have one of our two bigs on the floor at all times. But if we do need to go with Jefferson at C for a brief stretch (say if both Okafor and Plumlee are in foul trouble), I'd expect to see both Winslow and Ojeleye on the floor as well.
We are likely to have a late game situation where we pick up full court, or perhaps a stretch where we need to overcome a 10 point deficit by pressing. In those situations Coach K may go small, with Amile at the 5. However that is likely to be a situational decision rather than a regular part of our game plan.
Duvall
10-15-2014, 12:11 PM
If we have a seven footer and a 6-11 guy, it would probably be a good idea to have one of them in the game as often as possible.
I mean, I think that depends on the other eight players too.
luvdahops
10-15-2014, 12:14 PM
Looking at the team photo makes me believe that Marshall is at least 2 inches taller than Okafor. I believe Marshall is a true 7 footer but Okafor is more like 6'10". I don't mean that as a negative against Okafor as someone that big with his skills is a unique individual, but I doubt if he is 6'11".
I believe Jahlil has been measured several times at 6'10 3/4" to 6'11" with shoes on (and 6'9 1/2" to 6'9 3/4" in socks). I think Marshall is pushing 7' in socks and 7'1"" or taller with shoes on.
MChambers
10-15-2014, 01:37 PM
I believe Jahlil has been measured several times at 6'10 3/4" to 6'11" with shoes on (and 6'9 1/2" to 6'9 3/4" in socks). I think Marshall is pushing 7' in socks and 7'1"" or taller with shoes on.
Cinder blocks, please.
OldSchool
10-15-2014, 02:50 PM
Yeah, I agree. I don't see a really good reason to go with a lineup of T. Jones/Cook/Sulaimon/Winslow/Jefferson. That would be an undersized group at every position.
Frankly, I don't see a good reason not to have one of our two bigs on the floor at all times. But if we do need to go with Jefferson at C for a brief stretch (say if both Okafor and Plumlee are in foul trouble), I'd expect to see both Winslow and Ojeleye on the floor as well.
The reason I think we may see that lineup at times is because of K's tendency to put his five best players on the floor and let them overcome any individual matchup concerns with superior basketball skill and athleticism.
It's a little early to say, but it looks like our five best players are going to be Jahlil, Amile, Rasheed, Quinn and Tyus. If our next best player is Justise, and if he can hold his own against the 4 position, then I will not be surprised to see this lineup.
Of course it depends quite a bit on where Marshall is in his development. He has the size and athleticism, but it will be interesting to see how much he has improved in his game and whether he will be free of injury.
sagegrouse
10-15-2014, 05:09 PM
Yeah, I agree. I don't see a really good reason to go with a lineup of T. Jones/Cook/Sulaimon/Winslow/Jefferson. That would be an undersized group at every position.
Frankly, I don't see a good reason not to have one of our two bigs on the floor at all times. But if we do need to go with Jefferson at C for a brief stretch (say if both Okafor and Plumlee are in foul trouble), I'd expect to see both Winslow and Ojeleye on the floor as well.
The reason I think we may see that lineup at times is because of K's tendency to put his five best players on the floor and let them overcome any individual matchup concerns with superior basketball skill and athleticism.
It's a little early to say, but it looks like our five best players are going to be Jahlil, Amile, Rasheed, Quinn and Tyus. If our next best player is Justise, and if he can hold his own against the 4 position, then I will not be surprised to see this lineup.
Of course it depends quite a bit on where Marshall is in his development. He has the size and athleticism, but it will be interesting to see how much he has improved in his game and whether he will be free of injury.
CDu, against some opponents that lineup could be very effective, especially teams that don't have a skilled and effective post player (which is a lotta college teams). Of course, we are offering advice to a coach who put Chris Carrawell on Tim Duncan, Reggie Love on Brendan Haywood and Tyler Thornton on a host of opposing PFs.
mccollums
10-15-2014, 06:10 PM
Okafor's measurements at the Nike Hoops Summit.
Weight: 272 lbs.
Height (w/ shoes): 6'10.75"
Wingspan: 7'5"
Standing Reach: 9'2.5”
The wingspan and standing reach are they keys here. That's legit NBA center size.
http://www.draftexpress.com/article/2014-Nike-Hoop-Summit-USA-Measurements-4448/
Plumlee on the other hand has the height but not the wingspan. Couldn't find info on his standing reach. His measurements were from 2010 too, so it's possible he has grown a little since then.
Height w/shoes 7'1"
Wingspan 6'9"
More often then not, a good wingspan translates to a good standing reach, but it's not always that way. It's possible that his standing reach is subpar though, even though he's a legit 7 footer, he might have the less then desirable standing reach for an NBA Center.
http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Marshall-Plumlee-6261/
Newton_14
10-15-2014, 08:16 PM
If we have a seven footer and a 6-11 guy, it would probably be a good idea to have one of them in the game as often as possible.
Totally agree with you which was the main theme of my post. I just would not put it past K at all to move Amile to the 5 in a small ball line up if MP3 is not playing well or like I said, God forbid gets hurt. We know Jahlil cannot play 40 minutes or anywhere near it. I still think at best he averages 25 mpg. I fully expect and hope that during the times Jahlil is not on the floor, MP3 is in and playing well. MP3 played really well at times last year and think there is far more to his game an skillset than just size. He has a chance to be a really solid contributor.
However should he go through a bad stretch at any time, I feel K will not hesitate to go really small with Amile at the 5. How successful that is remains to be seen but I will be shocked if we don't see it at least some of the time.
ChillinDuke
10-16-2014, 09:29 AM
Totally agree with you which was the main theme of my post. I just would not put it past K at all to move Amile to the 5 in a small ball line up if MP3 is not playing well or like I said, God forbid gets hurt. We know Jahlil cannot play 40 minutes or anywhere near it. I still think at best he averages 25 mpg. I fully expect and hope that during the times Jahlil is not on the floor, MP3 is in and playing well. MP3 played really well at times last year and think there is far more to his game an skillset than just size. He has a chance to be a really solid contributor.
However should he go through a bad stretch at any time, I feel K will not hesitate to go really small with Amile at the 5. How successful that is remains to be seen but I will be shocked if we don't see it at least some of the time.
Agreed. I think there's high likelihood that we'll see this lineup during the season, especially early against OOC foes whose tallest rotation players are 6'7" - 6'9".
- Chillin
Saratoga2
10-16-2014, 09:58 AM
The reason I think we may see that lineup at times is because of K's tendency to put his five best players on the floor and let them overcome any individual matchup concerns with superior basketball skill and athleticism.
It's a little early to say, but it looks like our five best players are going to be Jahlil, Amile, Rasheed, Quinn and Tyus. If our next best player is Justise, and if he can hold his own against the 4 position, then I will not be surprised to see this lineup.
Of course it depends quite a bit on where Marshall is in his development. He has the size and athleticism, but it will be interesting to see how much he has improved in his game and whether he will be free of injury.
When you say 5 best players, it gets confusing. A player can be a best choice based on the matchups but clearly a 6'1" guard would not be a best choice playing against a center or a PF, no matter how skilled. Clearly the word best has to be taken in context. UCONN is the only school in recent memory that has made two small quick guards work against the best competition. Missouri tried a small quick guard oriented lineup but failed against big tough lineups. My view is that we will not see a lot of minutes with both Tyus and Quinn together. Not with Justice and other larger alternatives on the bench.
Saratoga2
10-16-2014, 10:03 AM
Okafor's measurements at the Nike Hoops Summit.
Weight: 272 lbs.
Height (w/ shoes): 6'10.75"
Wingspan: 7'5"
Standing Reach: 9'2.5”
The wingspan and standing reach are they keys here. That's legit NBA center size.
http://www.draftexpress.com/article/2014-Nike-Hoop-Summit-USA-Measurements-4448/
Plumlee on the other hand has the height but not the wingspan. Couldn't find info on his standing reach. His measurements were from 2010 too, so it's possible he has grown a little since then.
Height w/shoes 7'1"
Wingspan 6'9"
More often then not, a good wingspan translates to a good standing reach, but it's not always that way. It's possible that his standing reach is subpar though, even though he's a legit 7 footer, he might have the less then desirable standing reach for an NBA Center.
http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Marshall-Plumlee-6261/
Marshall still appears 2 inches taller than Jahlil in the team photo. I guess one could have thicker soles or one could be slouching. Jahlil at 6'10 3/4" with his reach is certainly NBA size, especially with his heft. Carrying that much weight will be difficult for him to play sustained long minutes.
dcar1985
10-16-2014, 10:11 AM
When you say 5 best players, it gets confusing. A player can be a best choice based on the matchups but clearly a 6'1" guard would not be a best choice playing against a center or a PF, no matter how skilled. Clearly the word best has to be taken in context. UCONN is the only school in recent memory that has made two small quick guards work against the best competition. Missouri tried a small quick guard oriented lineup but failed against big tough lineups. My view is that we will not see a lot of minutes with both Tyus and Quinn together. Not with Justice and other larger alternatives on the bench.
Louisville ring a bell? Florida started two small 6'2< guards as well in their two championship runs
Marshall still appears 2 inches taller than Jahlil in the team photo. I guess one could have thicker soles or one could be slouching. Jahlil at 6'10 3/4" with his reach is certainly NBA size, especially with his heft. Carrying that much weight will be difficult for him to play sustained long minutes.
Yeah, slouching, different sized shoes, and standing slightly closer/further from camera are all ways in which a picture can lead to deception with regard to height. Also, someone could act like I used to, when I would occasionally stand on my toes on the back row to look a bit taller in pictures. :)
elvis14
10-16-2014, 11:29 AM
Marshall still appears 2 inches taller than Jahlil in the team photo. I guess one could have thicker soles or one could be slouching. Jahlil at 6'10 3/4" with his reach is certainly NBA size, especially with his heft. Carrying that much weight will be difficult for him to play sustained long minutes.
If Jahlil was measured at 6/10 3/4" in shoes and Marshall was measured at 7'1" in shoes, wouldn't we expect Marshall to appear 2 inches taller than Jahlil?
MCFinARL
10-16-2014, 11:49 AM
If Jahlil was measured at 6/10 3/4" in shoes and Marshall was measured at 7'1" in shoes, wouldn't we expect Marshall to appear 2 inches taller than Jahlil?
Well, geez, if you want to bring math into it....
Kedsy
10-16-2014, 12:00 PM
UCONN is the only school in recent memory that has made two small quick guards work against the best competition. ... My view is that we will not see a lot of minutes with both Tyus and Quinn together. Not with Justice and other larger alternatives on the bench.
Well, first of all, you seem to be implying that making it "work against the best competition" means winning a national championship, and if that is what you mean then I vehemently disagree. Duke's 2013 team was ranked #6 in the final AP poll and made the Elite Eight -- to me that is certainly "work[ing] against the best competition," and we did it with Quinn Cook and Seth Curry as our starting guards. The Missouri team you mention was #3 in the country going into the NCAA tournament.
However, taking your assumption at face value for the moment, Tyus and Quinn are listed at 6'1 and 6'2. Without knowing how "recent" your memory goes, here are the heights of the starting guards for all national champions in this century:
2014 UConn: 6'1; 6'2
2013 Louisville: 6'0; 6'1
2012 Kentucky: 6'2; 6'4
2011 UConn: 6'1; 6'4 (although they ran at least 20 mpg with a backcourt of 6'1; 6'1)
2010 Duke: 6'5; 6'2
2009 UNC: 5'11; 6'4
2008 Kansas: 6'1; 6'1
2007 Florida: 6'0; 6'2
2006 Florida: 6'0; 6'2
2005 UNC: 6'1; 6'4
2004 UConn: 6'1; 6'2
2003 Syracuse: 6'2; 6'6
2002 Maryland: 6'3; 6'3
2001 Duke: 6'1; 6'2 (at least for the last 10 games of the season; even when Duhon wasn't starting, he and J Will played a lot of minutes together)
2000 Michigan State: 6'2; 6'3
So, seven (7) of the past 15 national champions had starting backcourts as small or smaller than a Tyus/Quinn backcourt would be (and an 8th champion played a smaller backcourt for at least 20 mpg), and only five (5) of those 15 champions started even one guard as tall (or taller) as 6'4.
In other words, your assertion does not appear to be correct. Even if Tyus and Quinn don't both start (although I think it very likely that they both do), you can bet the two will play a lot of minutes together.
duke09hms
10-16-2014, 12:23 PM
Well, first of all, you seem to be implying that making it "work against the best competition" means winning a national championship, and if that is what you mean then I vehemently disagree. Duke's 2013 team was ranked #6 in the final AP poll and made the Elite Eight -- to me that is certainly "work[ing] against the best competition," and we did it with Quinn Cook and Seth Curry as our starting guards. The Missouri team you mention was #3 in the country going into the NCAA tournament.
However, taking your assumption at face value for the moment, Tyus and Quinn are listed at 6'1 and 6'2. Without knowing how "recent" your memory goes, here are the heights of the starting guards for all national champions in this century:
2014 UConn: 6'1; 6'2
2013 Louisville: 6'0; 6'1
2012 Kentucky: 6'2; 6'4
2011 UConn: 6'1; 6'4 (although they ran at least 20 mpg with a backcourt of 6'1; 6'1)
2010 Duke: 6'5; 6'2
2009 UNC: 5'11; 6'4
2008 Kansas: 6'1; 6'1
2007 Florida: 6'0; 6'2
2006 Florida: 6'0; 6'2
2005 UNC: 6'1; 6'4
2004 UConn: 6'1; 6'2
2003 Syracuse: 6'2; 6'6
2002 Maryland: 6'3; 6'3
2001 Duke: 6'1; 6'2 (at least for the last 10 games of the season; even when Duhon wasn't starting, he and J Will played a lot of minutes together)
2000 Michigan State: 6'2; 6'3
So, seven (7) of the past 15 national champions had starting backcourts as small or smaller than a Tyus/Quinn backcourt would be (and an 8th champion played a smaller backcourt for at least 20 mpg), and only five (5) of those 15 champions started even one guard as tall (or taller) as 6'4.
In other words, your assertion does not appear to be correct. Even if Tyus and Quinn don't both start (although I think it very likely that they both do), you can bet the two will play a lot of minutes together.
Well most of these title teams that won with small backcourts had guards who were uber-athletic in terms of speed, burst, and explosiveness. Quinn and Tyus are decent athletes for sure but not on the same level as Duhon, JWill, and some of the other guys. You can be slower if you're bigger (Scheyer), smaller if you're faster (Nolan), but you can't be smaller and slower. See Greg Paulus as an extreme example. I don't think Tyus/Quinn are at Nolan's level of athleticism, which is what I'd arbitrarily consider the necessary level to make a 2-small backcourt work.
luvdahops
10-16-2014, 12:32 PM
Interesting article from SI.com:
http://www.si.com/college-basketball/2014/10/15/top-scoring-freshmen-jahlil-okafor-rashad-vaughn
Predictions for our frosh:
Jahlil 16.1ppg, 9.1rpg, 24% usage rate, OER of 121 in ~31.6mpg (#1 frosh nationally)
Tyus 12.3ppg, 4.9apg, 22% usage rate, OER of 117 in ~29.6mpg (#8)
Justise 10.1ppg, 4.3rpg, 20% usage rate, OER of 112 in ~25.6mpg (#13)
My expectations FWIW (which is very little):
-Slightly higher numbers for Jah (17/10) in fewer minutes (27-28)
-Less scoring (~10ppg) and more assists (6-7) for Tyus; minutes seem right
-Slightly less scoring (~8-9ppg) and more boards (5+) for Justise; minutes also seem right
flyingdutchdevil
10-16-2014, 12:50 PM
Well most of these title teams that won with small backcourts had guards who were uber-athletic in terms of speed, burst, and explosiveness. Quinn and Tyus are decent athletes for sure but not on the same level as Duhon, JWill, and some of the other guys. You can be slower if you're bigger (Scheyer), smaller if you're faster (Nolan), but you can't be smaller and slower. See Greg Paulus as an extreme example. I don't think Tyus/Quinn are at Nolan's level of athleticism, which is what I'd arbitrarily consider the necessary level to make a 2-small backcourt work.
I think this definitely holds water.
Kedsy - I want to know that you think about this: on all those small team line-ups, there was a small guard who was incredible at defense or had insanely good teammates in the frontcourt on defense (Florida in 07 & 08):
2014 UConn: 6'1; 6'2 - Shabazz Napier and Ryan Boatright are both harassing defenders who would give anyone fits.
2013 Louisville: 6'0; 6'1 - Russ Smith is ridiculous...at defense
2011 UConn: 6'1; 6'4 (although they ran at least 20 mpg with a backcourt of 6'1; 6'1) - Napier was that other 6'1" guy, right?
2008 Kansas: 6'1; 6'1 - Russell Robinson may be the best defensive guard on this list.
2007 Florida: 6'0; 6'2 - Green was okay at D, but that team that Brewer and Noah, two of the best defensive players in the country. Horford wasn't that bad either.
2006 Florida: 6'0; 6'2 - Green was okay at D, but that team that Brewer and Noah, two of the best defensive players in the country. Horford wasn't that bad either.
2004 UConn: 6'1; 6'2 - Taliek Brown was UConn's Duhon.
2001 Duke: 6'1; 6'2 - Duhon is a defensive specialist, especially in 2001
Quinn has never been on the level of any of these guys, and I don't think he will this year. I'm sure he'll improve, but that's going from a 5 to a 7, not the 9s and 10s that these guys are on D. Tyus is fabulous offensively, from what I've heard. However, there is either nothing written or nothing positive written about this defense. Given how recruits' skills are often embellished by the media/coaches/fans, I really don't think that Tyus is going to be the next Duhon.
I understand the Tyus/Cook backcourt on offense - and it will be potent- but it's gonna be a disaster on defense.
Kedsy
10-16-2014, 01:26 PM
Kedsy - I want to know that you think about this: on all those small team line-ups, there was a small guard who was incredible at defense or had insanely good teammates in the frontcourt on defense (Florida in 07 & 06)
Defense is a team thing. Most national champions are good at defense (although 2009 UNC (#35, according to Pomeroy's pre-tournament numbers) and 2011 UConn (#31) were both kind of mediocre). To say that a presumably good defensive team had either a really good defensive guard or a really good defensive frontcourt, sounds to me like you're re-stating the obvious.
If the Tyus/Quinn backcourt isn't so good at defense, then obviously if we want the team to be good at defense, the good defense is going to have to come from somewhere else, or we have to have a team defensive concept that minimizes the not-so-goodness of Tyus/Quinn. Put another way, maybe when all is said and done, the frontcourt of Jahlil/Amile/Justise might be considered "insanely good teammates in the frontcourt on defense." Or maybe our team D will step up like it did in 2010. It's way too early to tell.
All I'm saying right now is lots of national champions (and other very successful teams) got by with small backcourts. I don't think there's any hard-and-fast rule about how they did it.
(although they ran at least 20 mpg with a backcourt of 6'1; 6'1) - Napier was that other 6'1" guy, right?
Yes.
flyingdutchdevil
10-16-2014, 04:31 PM
Defense is a team thing. Most national champions are good at defense (although 2009 UNC (#35, according to Pomeroy's pre-tournament numbers) and 2011 UConn (#31) were both kind of mediocre). To say that a presumably good defensive team had either a really good defensive guard or a really good defensive frontcourt, sounds to me like you're re-stating the obvious.
If the Tyus/Quinn backcourt isn't so good at defense, then obviously if we want the team to be good at defense, the good defense is going to have to come from somewhere else, or we have to have a team defensive concept that minimizes the not-so-goodness of Tyus/Quinn. Put another way, maybe when all is said and done, the frontcourt of Jahlil/Amile/Justise might be considered "insanely good teammates in the frontcourt on defense." Or maybe our team D will step up like it did in 2010. It's way too early to tell.
All I'm saying right now is lots of national champions (and other very successful teams) got by with small backcourts. I don't think there's any hard-and-fast rule about how they did it.
This is where we are in disagreement, then.
Defense is a team thing, but you have a much better foundation when you have good defensive players to begin with. These "short" backcourts partially made up for that lack of height by being solid at defense (if not great). There is no Ryan Kelly on this current Duke team. There is no Joakim Noah. There is no Shelden Williams. Our best defensive player is a freshman without a single NCAA game under his belt. No one is every going to convince me that a line-up of Cook / Tyus / Sulaimon (or Winslow) / Amile / the Oak is better defensively than a line-up of Cook(or Tyus) / Sulaimon / Winslow / Amile / the Oak. Height doesn't have anything to do with it. It just turns out that our taller wings are better at D than our small guards.
I don't have a problem with the "short" aspect of our backcourt; I have a problem with the clear defensive liability that is our short backcourt.
tommy
10-16-2014, 05:03 PM
This is where we are in disagreement, then.
Defense is a team thing, but you have a much better foundation when you have good defensive players to begin with. These "short" backcourts partially made up for that lack of height by being solid at defense (if not great). There is no Ryan Kelly on this current Duke team. There is no Joakim Noah. There is no Shelden Williams.
And we know that how exactly? Do we know that junior Amile Jefferson or freshmen Jahlil Okafor or Justise Winslow won't be able to do the same things defensively -- or even maybe do things differently but just as effectively -- as Ryan Kelly did? I don't think we know that at all.
Our best defensive player is a freshman without a single NCAA game under his belt.
Again, we don't know that at all. Why not? Precisely because none of the freshmen have played a single NCAA game, and we don't know how our returning players are going to have progressed defensively since last year. We don't.
No one is every going to convince me that a line-up of Cook / Tyus / Sulaimon (or Winslow) / Amile / the Oak is better defensively than a line-up of Cook(or Tyus) / Sulaimon / Winslow / Amile / the Oak. Height doesn't have anything to do with it. It just turns out that our taller wings are better at D than our small guards.
I don't have a problem with the "short" aspect of our backcourt; I have a problem with the clear defensive liability that is our short backcourt.
Clear liability? Nothing is clear, because the games haven't started yet. We haven't seen these guys -- the freshmen -- at all in a Duke uniform, and we haven't seen the (hopefully) improved versions of our returning guys.
Not meaning to just pick on you flyingdutchdevil, but it's amazing to me how many definitive statements are being made on these boards about what this player or that is going to be like, in particular the freshmen. Most on this board never saw them play pre-college and of course none of them have seen them at practice or in a college game. So all these definitive statements are being based on . . . not much, if anything. Can we at least wait and see how they perform, individually and as a brand new team, against an actual opponent, before we make all of these unshakable pronouncements about what will and will not be?
Kedsy
10-16-2014, 05:09 PM
There is no Ryan Kelly on this current Duke team. There is no Joakim Noah.
Who's to say Amile Jefferson can't do a decent Ryan Kelly impression on defense? Who's to say Jahlil Okafor can't provide what Joakim Noah provided on defense (good positioning; good but not great shotblocking; very strong but not elite defensive rebounding)?
These things aren't out of the realm of possibility. Certainly we can't say either way until we've seen at least a few games.
[EDIT: Tommy beat me to it, but obviously I agree with him]
No one is ever going to convince me that a line-up of Cook / Tyus / Sulaimon (or Winslow) / Amile / the Oak is better defensively than a line-up of Cook(or Tyus) / Sulaimon / Winslow / Amile / the Oak.
The original argument set forth by Saratoga2 was whether a lineup with two short guards could succeed "against the best competition." I think the obvious answer to that is such a lineup can succeed, which is not to say that our particular short backcourt absolutely will succeed this season, which I suppose is the natural extension of the argument.
Now you're shifting the argument a little more. Nobody is arguing that your first lineup above is better defensively than your second lineup. The real question is whether the first lineup represents our best lineup overall. In other words, whether the defensive superiority of the second lineup outweighs or is outweighed by the offensive superiority of the first lineup.
My impression is Coach K currently thinks the first lineup is the best overall lineup. Whether he is proven wrong and has to adjust during the season is anybody's guess at this point.
Duvall
10-16-2014, 05:39 PM
Who's to say Amile Jefferson can't do a decent Ryan Kelly impression on defense? Who's to say Jahlil Okafor can't provide what Joakim Noah provided on defense (good positioning; good but not great shotblocking; very strong but not elite defensive rebounding)?
These things aren't out of the realm of possibility. Certainly we can't say either way until we've seen at least a few games.
Right - it's worth recalling that no one knew at this point two years ago that Ryan Kelly was going to do a Ryan Kelly impression on defense. There was a lot of talk about his offensive value, but his defensive value was a mid-season revelation.
The original argument set forth by Saratoga2 was whether a lineup with two short guards could succeed "against the best competition." I think the obvious answer to that is such a lineup can succeed, which is not to say that our particular short backcourt absolutely will succeed this season, which I suppose is the natural extension of the argument.
Now you're shifting the argument a little more. Nobody is arguing that your first lineup above is better defensively than your second lineup. The real question is whether the first lineup represents our best lineup overall. In other words, whether the defensive superiority of the second lineup outweighs or is outweighed by the offensive superiority of the first lineup.
My impression is Coach K currently thinks the first lineup is the best overall lineup. Whether he is proven wrong and has to adjust during the season is anybody's guess at this point.
Plus, the "best" lineup is only more important to the extent that it spends more time on the court than other lineups. If Cook, Tyus and Sulaimon all log substantial minutes, the distinction between the starting lineup and other lineups becomes less important.
Des Esseintes
10-16-2014, 06:47 PM
Right - it's worth recalling that no one knew at this point two years ago that Ryan Kelly was going to do a Ryan Kelly impression on defense. There was a lot of talk about his offensive value, but his defensive value was a mid-season revelation.
Plus, the "best" lineup is only more important to the extent that it spends more time on the court than other lineups. If Cook, Tyus and Sulaimon all log substantial minutes, the distinction between the starting lineup and other lineups becomes less important.
Seriously. I remember tons of people complaining that Kelly at the four couldn't keep up with quicker ACC power forwards. That was a *constant* complaint. (It's almost as though there was something ancillary getting in the way of analyzing Ryan's D, some unimportant surface characteristic that people were failing to look past. But I'm sure I don't know what that unimportant surface characteristic might have been.) Moreover, everyone wanted to know how on Earth we would be able to cobble together a strong defense after having had such a disastrous one in 2012. Now revisionist history is (correctly) noting that Kelly was a terrific help defender and defensive QB. I am in agreement with you, Kedsy, and tommy. This team needs to get much better at defense to compete for a title. To do so, someone, probably more than a single someone, must step forward. The idea that we know right now that that cannot happen is absurd. If the team could make a jump from '12 to '13, it can make a jump from '14 to '15.
flyingdutchdevil
10-16-2014, 07:04 PM
And we know that how exactly? Do we know that junior Amile Jefferson or freshmen Jahlil Okafor or Justise Winslow won't be able to do the same things defensively -- or even maybe do things differently but just as effectively -- as Ryan Kelly did? I don't think we know that at all.
Again, we don't know that at all. Why not? Precisely because none of the freshmen have played a single NCAA game, and we don't know how our returning players are going to have progressed defensively since last year. We don't.
Clear liability? Nothing is clear, because the games haven't started yet. We haven't seen these guys -- the freshmen -- at all in a Duke uniform, and we haven't seen the (hopefully) improved versions of our returning guys.
Not meaning to just pick on you flyingdutchdevil, but it's amazing to me how many definitive statements are being made on these boards about what this player or that is going to be like, in particular the freshmen. Most on this board never saw them play pre-college and of course none of them have seen them at practice or in a college game. So all these definitive statements are being based on . . . not much, if anything. Can we at least wait and see how they perform, individually and as a brand new team, against an actual opponent, before we make all of these unshakable pronouncements about what will and will not be?
Thanks for the response. A few things before I get started: a) I know that I made definitive statements when I should have put "I strongly believe" in front of them. My fault. b) Despite my negative-sounding posts for 6+ months, I am genuinely excited about the next 6 months. c) Coach K's rare post-season presser made me believe that Duke has going to focus on defense moreso than they ever have before. I thought that would create a trickle-down effect to the line-ups and playing time. Based on rumors and Coach-speak, I may have thought incorrectly. d) I think this team will be a top-10 offensive juggernaut, just like last year. I feel that the pieces are there (Okafor, Cook, Tyus, Sulaimon, Amile on the clean-up).
I base my knowledge on this upcoming season on two major sources: historical player perspective on current Duke players and analyst breakdowns on freshman. I unfortunately don't have the time to watch high school games. As much as I wish that Duke basketball was my full-time job, it's not. But I'd like to think that analyst breakdowns provide a strong understanding of that player.
Based on my experience of watching current Duke players, I assume the following:
1) Quinn Cook is not a good individual or team defender. He is good at steals, but he gambles often and is slow laterally. If he is currently a "5" on a scale of 1-10, do we expect him to jump to an "8"? I have serious reservations about that.
2) Rasheed Sulaimon was a very good defensive player his freshman year. His sophomore year wasn't as solid on that end, but something happened with sophomore Sulaimon that I cannot explain. This is the player - freshman included - that I feel most optimistic about for this season. I feel he will regain his freshman defensive form and improve on his offensive skills. Call me "President of the Rasheed Sulaimon Fan Club". But there is a strong chance that I am overly optimistic about Rasheed's D.
3) Amile Jefferson didn't have a good defensive freshman season. He played the 4, but his body was built like a skinny 2 and couldn't replace the defensive effectiveness that Ryan Kelly brought (few can). Amile's sophomore season saw him play out of place for the whole season. Amile just didn't have the bulk to compete with 5s on the defensive end. I didn't see much from Amile defensively during his freshman or sophomore year; I think he will improve, but by how much? I am not as optimistic as you on that end.
4) MP3 is big. I mean huge. He bothered 5s. I am actually very optimistic about him, but when you're bringing in the best college big since Anthony Davis (that doesn't sound that long ago, does it. Maybe Greg Oden is a better example?), how many minutes are you going to play? "MP3 minutes = 40 - As-Many-Minutes-As-Okafor-Can-Handle - A-Few-Small-Ball-Minutes-With-AJ-At-The-Five". I think MP3 can be very impactful at the 5, but his limited minutes may prevent him for showing that. Plus, Okafor's offense is probably > MP3's defense.
5) M. Jones or Semi are arguably the 8th man. One will probably make the rotation, the other probably won't. Do I know this? No. But it's a pretty established conclusion that Coach K likes short 7-8 man rotations. But I may be wrong this season. I am only going on historicals. M Jones likes to play D, but his shot couldn't hit the backside of a barn last year. Semi is as unknown as a freshman, IMO.
As for our freshman, and my thoughts based on reading a ton about their skillset:
1) Okafor: offensive beast. Amazing big. But defense? Huge question mark, with a lot of doubters: http://www.nbadraft.net/players/jahlil-okafor, http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Jahlil-Okafor-6469/. Yes, these posts focus on the NBA and not college. Yes, these posts do not state that Okafor is a defensive liability but rather than he is not an insane athlete but may not be able to impact the defensive end like the offensive end. But high school recruiting has taught me one major thing: if the scouts aren't raving about you, it's probably a weakness. Fair or unfair, that is a conclusion that I've come to realize.
2) Tyus Jones is Steve Nash-esque on the offensive end: great handle, great distributor, smart scorer. But defense? If there is one negative about Jones that I've read, it's his ability to be impactful on the defense end. Again, an assumption that i'm making through scouts and high school analysts. I tend to take my information from industry experts, but if these "experts" are wrong, then market inefficiencies exist that new college grads need to take advantage of. I am going into this season expecting T Jones to be a liability on defense. Maybe not as bad as some freshman that we've had in recent history, but not good.
3) Justise Winslow is athletic. I think I can make that definitive statement, right? From what I've read, he is muscular, powerful, 6'6" (maybe 6"7"?), rebounds well for his position, quick for his size, and is known for his defense. Offensively, I'm not too sure. He scored a ton of points in high school, but so did Sean Dockery. As far as Winslow's offense goes, I could see him average 12+ ppg and shoot 55% from the floor or average 5 ppg and shoot 35% from the floor. Neither would surprise me.
4) Grayson Allen is the 9th or 10th man. Maybe 8th if he's really good. Highly athletic dude.
We were a horrific defense team last year. I am definitely not the only one to strongly believe that Jabari's departure will be addition by subtraction on the defensive end. I know Hood received Coach K's best defensive player award last year, and he had a few great games defensively (Pittsburg is the one I recall the most), but I didn't think his D has that much better. But much of our personnel from that horrific year-long defensive performance remains the same. If you think that our players improved so much in the offseason defensively that one can be Ryan Kelly-esque or that our freshman can understand Coach K's complex but magnificent defensive schemes quickly, then power to you. I can not in that camp.
I am convinced that our offense will be good (maybe even great, like last year). But I am also convinced that our defense will be a liability, and we need to mitigate that risk through hard work, listening to Coach K, and playing the right personnel. I hope I'm wrong about us being a defensive liability. I really, really, really hope I'm wrong.
Kedsy
10-16-2014, 07:25 PM
Amile Jefferson didn't have a good defensive freshman season.
Amile didn't have that many opportunities to shine his freshman year, and he was usually vastly outweighed by whomever he was guarding, but he showed flashes of great defense, for example, when he put the clamps on Doug McDermott in the NCAAT. All Duke's other bigs had four fouls, and Amile guarded McDermott, and the nation's leading scorer didn't hit a single field goal during the 11 minutes Amile defended him.
Last season, despite again being outsized at the 5, I thought he was our best interior defender, which may not be saying much, but it's saying something.
Plus, despite his lack of girth, he was one of the best defensive rebounders in the conference.
Now, he's a junior and team captain, and he appears to have bulked up somewhat. He's always been vocal and he's had two years to learn Duke's D; I expect him to be a great defensive communicator/quarterback and a plus defender individually.
So you may be pleasantly surprised.
flyingdutchdevil
10-16-2014, 07:31 PM
Amile didn't have that many opportunities to shine his freshman year, and he was usually vastly outweighed by whomever he was guarding, but he showed flashes of great defense, for example, when he put the clamps on Doug McDermott in the NCAAT. All Duke's other bigs had four fouls, and Amile guarded McDermott, and the nation's leading scorer didn't hit a single field goal during the 11 minutes Amile defended him.
Last season, despite again being outsized at the 5, I thought he was our best interior defender, which may not be saying much, but it's saying something.
Plus, despite his lack of girth, he was one of the best defensive rebounders in the conference.
Now, he's a junior and team captain, and he appears to have bulked up somewhat. He's always been vocal and he's had two years to learn Duke's D; I expect him to be a great defensive communicator/quarterback and a plus defender individually.
So you may be pleasantly surprised.
I hope I am. Your optimism in Amile certainly helps.
Bluegrassdevil1
10-16-2014, 09:00 PM
Personally, I believe Duke will be a better TEAM overall than last season, which will inherently make the current group a stronger defensive squad; better connectivity and a stronger upperclassmen/underclassmen balance.
In my mind, Jefferson and Sulaimon are the keys to Duke's successful or unsuccessful defensive prowess this season, and I suspect that both players will be much improved by what they will not have to do this season, opposed to what they will have to do, or most importantly, what they have improved upon as individual players:
1. It is important to consider that the presence of Okafor in the paint changes the team's defense just by his very existence. The kid is a movable wall, and even if he is not a viable shot blocker, opposing teams must account for his size, and that size will permit Jefferson to do less, thus a stronger interior defense.
2. Duke did not have a defender like Winslow last year, and much like Okafor, his simple presence and most importantly, INTEREST, in playing defense will help Jefferson and Sulaimon.
3. T. Jones is not laterally quick or supremely athletic; however, defenders will have to account for him the offensive end, and they will not have the benefit of taking a breather on defense, like they could with last season's point position. When you are not pushed on both ends of the floor, it is much easier to exploit your defender if he in turn is being forced to play both ends.
4. If nothing else, T. Jones' basketball IQ is miles superior to last season's point position, and he will not spend virtually each and every game in foul trouble. The less foul trouble one experiences, the more one is able to play stronger defense in tight, close situations.
5. I suspect Plumlee 3 will be more consistent than last season, and his improved consistency gives Duke a strength off the bench that was absent last year.
6. Allen and Ojeleye are athletes, the absent guards and forwards from last season were not athletic. The simple process of being able to throw Allen's and Ojeleye's abilities at an opponent is something that will improve team defense, if for no other reason than being able to simply move laterally at a rapid pace is a step forward.
7. Last season's Duke team had an individual that was not the strongest defender, yet was the team's strongest scorer, which is a conundrum designed to lead to a great many tactical and in-game problems. Duke's likely top scorer (Okafor) will be a better defender if for no other reason than he has stronger natural ability and basketball instincts.
Disclaimer: the very mention of last year's players by name makes the mods' Laura Wingfield hearts move at a rapid pace, and send me love letters through my email, so I have to use letters as designations.
8. Duke lost five guys from last year: two were not threats to score and were minimally good defenders (call them "A" and "B"). One was occasionally a threat to score or completely absent, plus a minimally good defender (call him "C"). One was a great scorer, but... he was bad on the defensive end (call him "D"). The fifth was a good scorer, and likely both struggled to adjust to high-level competition night after night, and found himself in the awkward position of being the team's lockdown defender, yet was likely unable to ever reach the point of being the stopper, even if he were to play for Duke for two more years (call him "E").
The current squad brings in four guys, plus a great practice player that will help in preparation for opponents:
a. T. Jones is a better defender than A through D.
T. Jones is a better scorer than A,B, and C.
b. Okafor is a better defender than A through D.
Okafor is a better scorer than A,B,C, and E.
c. Winslow is a better defender than A through E.
Winslow is a better scorer than A,B, and C.
d. Allen is a better defender than B,C, and D.
Allen is a better scorer than A and B.
e. Obi is a better defender than A through D, and maybe E.
Obi is a better scorer than A through C.
UK, Arizona, UNC, Kansas, Texas, Virginia, et al. may prove to be better than Duke this season, but these simple things, the exchanging of puzzle pieces, I think will make Duke better than last year. The team may still lose to "another" Mercer in first round of the NCAA tournament, but I suspect the "new" Mercer will have to work a great deal harder to take out the Blue Devils.
If nothing else, maybe the program continues the recent streak of disappointing seasons followed by pleasant seasons:
2014: Boo.
2013: Yeah.
2012: Boo.
2011: Yeah.
Newton_14
10-16-2014, 09:25 PM
I hope I am. Your optimism in Amile certainly helps.
You are also missing a fact I pointed out earlier in this thread. The guys Amile will be going up against. His first two years he was undersized and inexperienced going against bigger and experienced upperclassmen or bigger and more skilled freshman. All those guys are gone. Now Junior Amile who is bigger and experienced is going against guys his own age or underclassmen not as skilled as he is or experienced as he is. It matters. Just like it mattered with Mason. Amile will be fine defensively. Better than fine. Same thing scoring the ball. He will get more than garbage and cleanup buckets. He will score the ball on post moves and drives with crafty finishes.
superdave
10-22-2014, 01:18 PM
This quote from Amile Jefferson in the N&O article gives some pretty good guidance on our defense this season: “There is a lot more teaching, and it’s a lot simpler than what we were doing last year,” junior captain Amile Jefferson said. “We have absolutes. We’re going to rebound as a team. We’re going to put pressure on the ball. These are things we are going to do each and every play. No matter what defense we’re in, no matter what we’re doing, we’re going to do those things.”
From this it sounds like we should look for Tyus, Rasheed and Quinn to be hawking the ball and overplaying passing lanes. We should also look for Amile, Marshall and Jahlil to be crashing the boards and looking to control the paint. Our depth should enable us to be aggressive in both of these aspects.
Kedsy
10-22-2014, 01:23 PM
From this it sounds like we should look for Tyus, Rasheed and Quinn to be hawking the ball and overplaying passing lanes. We should also look for Amile, Marshall and Jahlil to be crashing the boards and looking to control the paint. Our depth should enable us to be aggressive in both of these aspects.
And yet it will all come down to how well we rotate on dribble-penetration and how well we react to screens, just as it does almost every season.
Coach K is apparently trying to simplify these aspects of our defense, and employ ICE on screens, which is new for Duke, so it will be interesting to see how things unfold.
superdave
10-22-2014, 02:03 PM
And yet it will all come down to how well we rotate on dribble-penetration and how well we react to screens, just as it does almost every season.
Coach K is apparently trying to simplify these aspects of our defense, and employ ICE on screens, which is new for Duke, so it will be interesting to see how things unfold.
The key guys to rotate and stop dribble penetration will be Rasheed, Justise and Amile, right? What kind of confidence does that give you? Maybe we re-visit this in December. Lance, Kyle and Jon were pretty at rotating in 2010, but they really packed that defense in and Nolan was great on-the-ball.
Kedsy
10-22-2014, 02:46 PM
The key guys to rotate and stop dribble penetration will be Rasheed, Justise and Amile, right? What kind of confidence does that give you? Maybe we re-visit this in December. Lance, Kyle and Jon were pretty at rotating in 2010, but they really packed that defense in and Nolan was great on-the-ball.
Coach K said the other day that Rasheed was our best on-ball defender. It could be Matt Jones (along with Justise and Amile, as you mention, and presumably also Jahlil/Marshall) will be a key guy counted on to rotate and help.
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