Wander
09-25-2014, 06:25 PM
I don't think anybody did Phase I, but, whatever. Looking at the schedule, the season divides neatly into sets of four: phase I was the four non-conference games, phase II is the middle four, phase III is the last four, and, fingers crossed, phase IV is the ACC championship game. As usual, the spirit is to NOT take into account game plans against specific opponents.
1. How much of our early dominance was due to scheduling?
I'm a believer that our early dominance of an easy schedule is not a mirage - after all, we were really good last year, and UNC's struggles against inferior opponents foreshadowed their hilarious destruction at East Carolina - but it does need to be said that our non-conference schedule was awful. Like, really, really, REALLY awful - one of the worst in Division 1A. I don't blame Cut for the schedule given where we used to be, and how ridiculous it is how far in advance these games get scheduled, but it's probably fair to say our uncertainty is higher than that of most teams. We're currently ranked #1 in the ACC in both scoring offense and scoring defense (!), and that probably isn't going to hold up - but the degree to which that bends over the next four games will tell us a lot. Note that our next four games are all against division opponents, three of them are on the road, and one can even argue that they are the four toughest remaining games of the regular season. We'll know a lot by the end.
2. Are we going to have tight ends involved in the passing game?
Last year, our TE was our second leading receiver. This year, Reeves only has 1 catch in each of our games against 1A opponents. I'm curious if Deaver's injury means we're going to give up on the passing game for our TEs entirely for the remainder of the season. Reeves isn't going to replicate what Deaver did, but it still would be nice to see him get just a little bit more involved in the passing offense.
3. Is Shaun Wilson going to become our primary runningback?
We've been doing a "running by committee" approach so far - we have six players (4 RBs, 2 QBs) who have between 19 and 33 rush attempts on the season. However, IMO, one of them is very clearly the best runner. Wilson has over 400 yards, Snead and Powell have rushing yards in the 140's... and Wilson has five LESS carries than either of those guys. Even if you take away a few of Wilson's large runs because you think they're flukes or something, he still has more yards on less carries (hell, you could take out his entire Kansas game and that'd still be true). To be fair, Wilson also has a lost fumble, and I'm not advocating that he gets ALL the carries... but I would really like to see him eat into the rushing attempts of Powell, Snead, and Ajeigbe a little bit.
4. Can our rushing defense improve?
Our passing defense and scoring defense have been excellent, but our rushing defense ranks 12th in the ACC right now - and that's not adjusted for our awful schedule. Note that every single touchdown we've given up so far has been a red zone rushing touchdown (of course, there's a good flip side to that stat). This has to change if we're going to be successful in Phase II. Pitt and Miami have talented runningbacks, and we all know about Georgia Tech's offense. This is probably our team's biggest weakness, and makes me sad thinking about the injury to our star linebacker.
5. Can Jamison Crowder be an ACC player of the year contender type of player?
Crowder is possibly our best player. He gave us a dramatic highlight two years ago in beating UNC and putting us into a bowl game for the first time in forever, and was a 1st team WR last year. He's been good again so far... but I think he can get even better. He's actually on pace for less receptions and yards than last year. He's the type of guy who can cause us to win a game we shouldn't with a spectacular catch, double digit receptions, or a long punt return. These things haven't happened yet (and we haven't needed them), but we should watch him going forward to see if he can contend for ACC POY.
6. Our kicking is awesome
That was obviously not a question, but kicking should, I think, be a little less sensitive to strength of schedule than other stats, and we'll probably have close games in our future, so just keep it up. Martin is perfect on field goals and extra points so far, our kick return game is tops in the ACC, and kickoff coverage and the punting game has been fine (though has some room for improvement).
7. How good is Boone?
To be honest, this isn't something that's really on my mind, but I think a lot of other people are wondering. We're weirdly spoiled when it comes to quarterbacks, in that we had a QB who would play in the NFL even during a winless season (Thad Lewis). To me, Boone is a pretty-good-but-not-great quarterback who should definitely be our starter (duh) and who's done a good job playing within himself. I guess the only thing is that it'd be nice to see him cut down on interceptions from last year, which he is on pace to do.
1. How much of our early dominance was due to scheduling?
I'm a believer that our early dominance of an easy schedule is not a mirage - after all, we were really good last year, and UNC's struggles against inferior opponents foreshadowed their hilarious destruction at East Carolina - but it does need to be said that our non-conference schedule was awful. Like, really, really, REALLY awful - one of the worst in Division 1A. I don't blame Cut for the schedule given where we used to be, and how ridiculous it is how far in advance these games get scheduled, but it's probably fair to say our uncertainty is higher than that of most teams. We're currently ranked #1 in the ACC in both scoring offense and scoring defense (!), and that probably isn't going to hold up - but the degree to which that bends over the next four games will tell us a lot. Note that our next four games are all against division opponents, three of them are on the road, and one can even argue that they are the four toughest remaining games of the regular season. We'll know a lot by the end.
2. Are we going to have tight ends involved in the passing game?
Last year, our TE was our second leading receiver. This year, Reeves only has 1 catch in each of our games against 1A opponents. I'm curious if Deaver's injury means we're going to give up on the passing game for our TEs entirely for the remainder of the season. Reeves isn't going to replicate what Deaver did, but it still would be nice to see him get just a little bit more involved in the passing offense.
3. Is Shaun Wilson going to become our primary runningback?
We've been doing a "running by committee" approach so far - we have six players (4 RBs, 2 QBs) who have between 19 and 33 rush attempts on the season. However, IMO, one of them is very clearly the best runner. Wilson has over 400 yards, Snead and Powell have rushing yards in the 140's... and Wilson has five LESS carries than either of those guys. Even if you take away a few of Wilson's large runs because you think they're flukes or something, he still has more yards on less carries (hell, you could take out his entire Kansas game and that'd still be true). To be fair, Wilson also has a lost fumble, and I'm not advocating that he gets ALL the carries... but I would really like to see him eat into the rushing attempts of Powell, Snead, and Ajeigbe a little bit.
4. Can our rushing defense improve?
Our passing defense and scoring defense have been excellent, but our rushing defense ranks 12th in the ACC right now - and that's not adjusted for our awful schedule. Note that every single touchdown we've given up so far has been a red zone rushing touchdown (of course, there's a good flip side to that stat). This has to change if we're going to be successful in Phase II. Pitt and Miami have talented runningbacks, and we all know about Georgia Tech's offense. This is probably our team's biggest weakness, and makes me sad thinking about the injury to our star linebacker.
5. Can Jamison Crowder be an ACC player of the year contender type of player?
Crowder is possibly our best player. He gave us a dramatic highlight two years ago in beating UNC and putting us into a bowl game for the first time in forever, and was a 1st team WR last year. He's been good again so far... but I think he can get even better. He's actually on pace for less receptions and yards than last year. He's the type of guy who can cause us to win a game we shouldn't with a spectacular catch, double digit receptions, or a long punt return. These things haven't happened yet (and we haven't needed them), but we should watch him going forward to see if he can contend for ACC POY.
6. Our kicking is awesome
That was obviously not a question, but kicking should, I think, be a little less sensitive to strength of schedule than other stats, and we'll probably have close games in our future, so just keep it up. Martin is perfect on field goals and extra points so far, our kick return game is tops in the ACC, and kickoff coverage and the punting game has been fine (though has some room for improvement).
7. How good is Boone?
To be honest, this isn't something that's really on my mind, but I think a lot of other people are wondering. We're weirdly spoiled when it comes to quarterbacks, in that we had a QB who would play in the NFL even during a winless season (Thad Lewis). To me, Boone is a pretty-good-but-not-great quarterback who should definitely be our starter (duh) and who's done a good job playing within himself. I guess the only thing is that it'd be nice to see him cut down on interceptions from last year, which he is on pace to do.