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View Full Version : Phase II: Miami, GT, UVA, and Pitt



Wander
09-25-2014, 06:25 PM
I don't think anybody did Phase I, but, whatever. Looking at the schedule, the season divides neatly into sets of four: phase I was the four non-conference games, phase II is the middle four, phase III is the last four, and, fingers crossed, phase IV is the ACC championship game. As usual, the spirit is to NOT take into account game plans against specific opponents.

1. How much of our early dominance was due to scheduling?
I'm a believer that our early dominance of an easy schedule is not a mirage - after all, we were really good last year, and UNC's struggles against inferior opponents foreshadowed their hilarious destruction at East Carolina - but it does need to be said that our non-conference schedule was awful. Like, really, really, REALLY awful - one of the worst in Division 1A. I don't blame Cut for the schedule given where we used to be, and how ridiculous it is how far in advance these games get scheduled, but it's probably fair to say our uncertainty is higher than that of most teams. We're currently ranked #1 in the ACC in both scoring offense and scoring defense (!), and that probably isn't going to hold up - but the degree to which that bends over the next four games will tell us a lot. Note that our next four games are all against division opponents, three of them are on the road, and one can even argue that they are the four toughest remaining games of the regular season. We'll know a lot by the end.

2. Are we going to have tight ends involved in the passing game?
Last year, our TE was our second leading receiver. This year, Reeves only has 1 catch in each of our games against 1A opponents. I'm curious if Deaver's injury means we're going to give up on the passing game for our TEs entirely for the remainder of the season. Reeves isn't going to replicate what Deaver did, but it still would be nice to see him get just a little bit more involved in the passing offense.

3. Is Shaun Wilson going to become our primary runningback?
We've been doing a "running by committee" approach so far - we have six players (4 RBs, 2 QBs) who have between 19 and 33 rush attempts on the season. However, IMO, one of them is very clearly the best runner. Wilson has over 400 yards, Snead and Powell have rushing yards in the 140's... and Wilson has five LESS carries than either of those guys. Even if you take away a few of Wilson's large runs because you think they're flukes or something, he still has more yards on less carries (hell, you could take out his entire Kansas game and that'd still be true). To be fair, Wilson also has a lost fumble, and I'm not advocating that he gets ALL the carries... but I would really like to see him eat into the rushing attempts of Powell, Snead, and Ajeigbe a little bit.

4. Can our rushing defense improve?
Our passing defense and scoring defense have been excellent, but our rushing defense ranks 12th in the ACC right now - and that's not adjusted for our awful schedule. Note that every single touchdown we've given up so far has been a red zone rushing touchdown (of course, there's a good flip side to that stat). This has to change if we're going to be successful in Phase II. Pitt and Miami have talented runningbacks, and we all know about Georgia Tech's offense. This is probably our team's biggest weakness, and makes me sad thinking about the injury to our star linebacker.

5. Can Jamison Crowder be an ACC player of the year contender type of player?
Crowder is possibly our best player. He gave us a dramatic highlight two years ago in beating UNC and putting us into a bowl game for the first time in forever, and was a 1st team WR last year. He's been good again so far... but I think he can get even better. He's actually on pace for less receptions and yards than last year. He's the type of guy who can cause us to win a game we shouldn't with a spectacular catch, double digit receptions, or a long punt return. These things haven't happened yet (and we haven't needed them), but we should watch him going forward to see if he can contend for ACC POY.

6. Our kicking is awesome
That was obviously not a question, but kicking should, I think, be a little less sensitive to strength of schedule than other stats, and we'll probably have close games in our future, so just keep it up. Martin is perfect on field goals and extra points so far, our kick return game is tops in the ACC, and kickoff coverage and the punting game has been fine (though has some room for improvement).

7. How good is Boone?
To be honest, this isn't something that's really on my mind, but I think a lot of other people are wondering. We're weirdly spoiled when it comes to quarterbacks, in that we had a QB who would play in the NFL even during a winless season (Thad Lewis). To me, Boone is a pretty-good-but-not-great quarterback who should definitely be our starter (duh) and who's done a good job playing within himself. I guess the only thing is that it'd be nice to see him cut down on interceptions from last year, which he is on pace to do.

Bob Green
09-25-2014, 07:50 PM
Great job! I would go ahead and include the trip to Syracuse in Phase II leaving the three game homestand to close the regular season to be Phase III. I'm with you on Phase IV.

1. How much of our early dominance was due to scheduling?

Obviously we played an easy out-of-conference schedule, but we won all four games by an average margin of 32 points. Currently we are ranked #1 in the ACC in both Scoring Offense and Scoring Defense so while the schedule has significantly contributed to success achieved there is no doubt Duke is a talented football team.

2. Are we going to have tight ends involved in the passing game?

The emergence of Isaac Blakeney on the outside opposite Jamison Crowder should open up plenty of room in the middle of the field for both the slot receiver and the tight end to operate. To date, Max McCaffrey has taken advantage and is off to a great start to the season. The offense needs more pass catching production out of the tight end, but with the success we are having running the football, Reeves and Schneider are making an impact with their blocking abilities.

3. Is Shaun Wilson going to become our primary runningback?

I'm not sure I would use the desriptor primary, but he will become our featured back. While we will certainly continue to rotate through all four running backs, Shaun Wilson is going to see the ball sooner and more often as the season progresses. He is too talented to sit on the sideline throughout the first half of games. In fact, he saw action early in the Tulane game. I'm sure he is still learning the full play book and his role as a pass receiver out of the backfield and as a pass blocker when required. Those extra skills will come and he will consistently see more snaps. He is explosive and has the ability to take the ball to the house everytime he touches it.

4. Can our rushing defense improve?

Losing Kelby Brown hurt but injuries are part of the game so the team has to move on. David Helton seems to be adjusting to the Mike Linebacker position admirably. In fact, Coach Cutcliffe praised him in a recent interview and said Helton was the story of the season to date. Our defensive ends are small and that makes it difficult for them to be dominant run stoppers. DT Jamal Wallace has been taking snaps at DE in practice this week so look for him to play on the end to assist with stopping opponent's running game. Inside, there is a big difference when the back-ups are in the game compared to when starters Jamal Bruce and Carlos Wray are on the field. Those younger back-ups are still learning but will get better as the season progresses. I do not see our defensive line being dominant at any point this season but they are adequate.

5. Can Jamison Crowder be an ACC player of the year contender type of player?

Crowder is definitely an ACC POY type of player. He has had multiple good games so far this season with the Kansas game being his only down performance. I expect he will rise to the occassion as the conference schedule starts this weekend. Crowder will also benefit from Blakeney's success on the other side of the field.

6. Our kicking is awesome

Our Special Teams play was dominant in Phase I. The kicking game is so important to winning the field position battle. Cutcliffe's strategy of using Jack Willoughby to kick-off because of the hang time he is able to achieve has been successful to date. Will Monday is a fantastic punter who can boom the ball. Ross Martin is money on field goals and extra points so yes, I agree, our kicking game is awesome.

7. How good is Boone?

Coming in to the season, it was all about cutting down on interceptions. Boone threw 13 touchdown passes and 13 interceptions in 2013 for a 1:1 ratio. That ratio is 7:1 so far in 2014. As long as he continues to value the football, he has the opportunity to continue to do what he does best. Win! Additionally, Boone is a talented runner. He doesn't possess blazing speed but he is not slow.

OldPhiKap
09-25-2014, 08:15 PM
arguably the toughest stretch of the season, following the easiest.

1. How much of our early dominance was due to scheduling?

A lot. But we took care of what we we're supposed to do, like contending teams do. I think we have turned a major corner with the program. More important than the scores, the early games have let us see lots of players and get some early experience for younger players. That should pay dividends.

2. Are we going to have tight ends involved in the passing game?

Won't go very far if we don't. Boone needs to develop confidence with the TE corps and assume it will happen. If for no other reason than coverage deep on Crowder and Blakeney.

3. Is Shaun Wilson going to become our primary runningback?

I think we keep a rotation of fresh RBs coming in, each with different skill sets. But he will get his reps. We are obviously determined to run, which is winning football.

4. Can our rushing defense improve?

4-2-5 requires the line to hold its ground and the DBs to shoot the gaps. Cash is exceptional at this for example. I think we may have somewhat inconsistent, but steadily improving, play here overall if we stay healthy. But we are living on the edge to some degree.

5. Can Jamison Crowder be an ACC player of the year contender type of player?

Crowder should benefit from Blakeney's emergence, and a run game which keeps DBs honest. POY is tough to project, especially this year so far. I won't sell him short, but I don't think anyone can rightfully call themselves a front runner at this point.

6. Our kicking is awesome

Little concerned about punts and punt returns, but overall very good. Monday can be dominant and hope he regains that form/edge.

7. How good is Boone?

Good enough for Cut, good enough for me! AB is not flashy but runs the offense well.

loran16
09-25-2014, 09:56 PM
ad, and one can even argue that they are the four toughest remaining games of the regular season. We'll know a lot by the end.

2. Are we going to have tight ends involved in the passing game?
Last year, our TE was our second leading receiver. This year, Reeves only has 1 catch in each of our games against 1A opponents. I'm curious if Deaver's injury means we're going to give up on the passing game for our TEs entirely for the remainder of the season. Reeves isn't going to replicate what Deaver did, but it still would be nice to see him get just a little bit more involved in the passing offense.

I mentioned this on twitter to a bunch of UF guys during the bowl game last year who were examining Roper, but Really don't think this matters that much. Duke under Cut hasn't really used the Tight End a lot - it's just last year Deaver was our #2 receiver. This year, we have at least one other capable WR (assuming Blakeny doesn't drop off) to Crowder, so it's not a big deal.




3. Is Shaun Wilson going to become our primary runningback?
We've been doing a "running by committee" approach so far - we have six players (4 RBs, 2 QBs) who have between 19 and 33 rush attempts on the season. However, IMO, one of them is very clearly the best runner. Wilson has over 400 yards, Snead and Powell have rushing yards in the 140's... and Wilson has five LESS carries than either of those guys. Even if you take away a few of Wilson's large runs because you think they're flukes or something, he still has more yards on less carries (hell, you could take out his entire Kansas game and that'd still be true). To be fair, Wilson also has a lost fumble, and I'm not advocating that he gets ALL the carries... but I would really like to see him eat into the rushing attempts of Powell, Snead, and Ajeigbe a little bit.



I doubt it - Wilson will get more carries for sure - in the game vs Tulane he actually was in for two straight series, which is a good sign, and Agjeigbe isn't likely to get carries that often at this point barring a change. But Duke will stick with a 3-4 back rotation till Cut leaves, and Cut loves seniority (although Shaq Powell doesn't have that much seniority and he's the #1 back atm).




4. Can our rushing defense improve?
Our passing defense and scoring defense have been excellent, but our rushing defense ranks 12th in the ACC right now - and that's not adjusted for our awful schedule. Note that every single touchdown we've given up so far has been a red zone rushing touchdown (of course, there's a good flip side to that stat). This has to change if we're going to be successful in Phase II. Pitt and Miami have talented runningbacks, and we all know about Georgia Tech's offense. This is probably our team's biggest weakness, and makes me sad thinking about the injury to our star linebacker.


Well, last year we had said star linebacker and our best DE (Annunike) and we STILL stunk against the run. I don't understand why anyone expects a change this year. We have bad personnel to stop the run. Our D formation isn't great at stopping the run. This was predictable.




7. How good is Boone?
To be honest, this isn't something that's really on my mind, but I think a lot of other people are wondering. We're weirdly spoiled when it comes to quarterbacks, in that we had a QB who would play in the NFL even during a winless season (Thad Lewis). To me, Boone is a pretty-good-but-not-great quarterback who should definitely be our starter (duh) and who's done a good job playing within himself. I guess the only thing is that it'd be nice to see him cut down on interceptions from last year, which he is on pace to do.

I'm not convinced Boone has changed really from last year. He'll complete 60% of passes, not do many for long yardage, and make 2-5 horribly planned throws each game. He has spurts where he simply overthrows everything. This is what he is. The INT drop is due to opponents dropping easy picks, not really a skill change.

Boone is good enough to win ballgames, and bad enough that he can lose them. He's helped by having an incredible amount of weaponry. But he's not a star QB and he's never going to be. Just hope the bad plays don't come in the wrong spots.

Wander
09-26-2014, 12:50 AM
I'm not sure I would use the desriptor primary, but he will become our featured back. While we will certainly continue to rotate through all four running backs, Shaun Wilson is going to see the ball sooner and more often as the season progresses. He is too talented to sit on the sideline throughout the first half of games. In fact, he saw action early in the Tulane game. I'm sure he is still learning the full play book and his role as a pass receiver out of the backfield and as a pass blocker when required. Those extra skills will come and he will consistently see more snaps. He is explosive and has the ability to take the ball to the house everytime he touches it.


The role of the runningback in the passing game is a good point that I should have touched on, and it's probably true that Snead/Powell are better at that right now. That definitely factors in. It's sort of like deciding between experienced seniors in Brian Zoubek/Lance Thomas who are better at things like setting screens and tipping out rebounds versus the more talented and athletic Plumlees. And even though I recognize that using that example as an analogy is sort of counterproductive to my point given how 2010 ended, I still think Wilson is talented enough that he warrants just a bit more touches going forward.



I mentioned this on twitter to a bunch of UF guys during the bowl game last year who were examining Roper, but Really don't think this matters that much. Duke under Cut hasn't really used the Tight End a lot - it's just last year Deaver was our #2 receiver.


You're right that last year was the only Cutcliffe season that featured the TE that much in the passing game, but it was also (obviously) our most successful Cutcliffe season, and we must have been expecting to have that again this season. I think it's a pretty big change, removing that entire element of the offense.



Well, last year we had said star linebacker and our best DE (Annunike) and we STILL stunk against the run. I don't understand why anyone expects a change this year. We have bad personnel to stop the run. Our D formation isn't great at stopping the run. This was predictable.


I agree with you that it is not going to be a strength. However, right now we're worse than we were last year - we've given up more rushing yards per game, and that's comparing our relatively easy 4 games against the entire 14 games last year. That's gotta improve at least a little bit.

Bob Green
09-26-2014, 05:15 AM
Well, last year we had said star linebacker and our best DE (Annunike) and we STILL stunk against the run. I don't understand why anyone expects a change this year. We have bad personnel to stop the run. Our D formation isn't great at stopping the run. This was predictable.

With starting DE Dezmond Johnson out for a second game, Jamal Wallace (#95) will see action at DE. This change is being made specifically to shore up the run defense. Wallace is a bigger man at 6'4" 280. Jonathan Jones (#34) is 6'3" 225. Kyler Brown (#56) is 6'4" 245, Britton Grier (#22) is 6'1" 245 and Michael Mann (#58) is 6'4" 235.

We shall see how the move works out.