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kAzE
09-25-2014, 04:41 PM
I just saw this picture that Sean Obi posted, and it got me all jacked up for the upcoming season.

4350

I didn't really know what thread to put it in, so I just made this thread, since I figure we'll probably need one sooner or later.

I'd just like to comment that Amile looks HUGE, just look at those beefy arms. I think he's going to have a monster year. If there were an ACC fantasy college basketball game, I'd pick Amile as my 5th round pick as a sleeper with early 2nd round value. Also, Rasheed looks like he shrunk . . . he looks scrawnier than Tyus Jones. I was hoping he'd come back stronger, so he can improve his finishing ability around the hoop, but he looks about the same as he did as a freshman.

Bluedog
09-25-2014, 04:47 PM
I just saw this picture that Sean Obi posted, and it got me all jacked up for the upcoming season.

4350

I didn't really know what thread to put it in, so I just made this thread, since I figure we'll probably need one sooner or later.

I'd just like to comment that Amile looks HUGE, just look at those beefy arms. I think he's going to have a monster year. If there were an ACC fantasy college basketball game, I'd pick Amile as my 5th round pick as a sleeper with early 2nd round value. Also, Rasheed looks like he shrunk . . . he looks scrawnier than Tyus Jones. I was hoping he'd come back stronger, so he can improve his finishing ability around the hoop, but he looks about the same as he did as a freshman.

You're basing your (lack of) confidence in Rasheed based on one picture where he's sitting down? It's possible he is slouching a bit. It's possible Tyus is leaning forward and a bit in front of him. It's possible he simply has his muscles relaxed and his arms aren't pulled forward as much. In any event, you're really reaching trying to derive much insight based on a picture like this that's so far away and half the players are seated and blocking the guys in the back. But I do appreciate the post and the pic!

Bluegrassdevil1
09-25-2014, 05:04 PM
I just saw this picture that Sean Obi posted, and it got me all jacked up for the upcoming season.

4350

I didn't really know what thread to put it in, so I just made this thread, since I figure we'll probably need one sooner or later.

I'd just like to comment that Amile looks HUGE, just look at those beefy arms. I think he's going to have a monster year. If there were an ACC fantasy college basketball game, I'd pick Amile as my 5th round pick as a sleeper with early 2nd round value. Also, Rasheed looks like he shrunk . . . he looks scrawnier than Tyus Jones. I was hoping he'd come back stronger, so he can improve his finishing ability around the hoop, but he looks about the same as he did as a freshman.

In order for Jefferson and Plumlee 3 to gain body mass, Rasheed agreed to let them eat parts of him. Yes, Rasheed has lost some height, but it really does look better on Amile's shoulders.

But on a sad note, the coaching staff still does not believe Rasheed has been a good enough teammate to become a team captain.

I have heard that should the team plane crash into a mountain, Rasheed will do the right thing.

Duvall
09-25-2014, 05:06 PM
Please tell me *someone* has finally done the math on a conversion rate from cinder blocks to bluestone.

Des Esseintes
09-25-2014, 06:35 PM
Quinn's eyes are closed, right? They couldn't find a single team picture in which he was awake?

lotusland
09-25-2014, 07:50 PM
Quinn's eyes are closed, right? They couldn't find a single team picture in which he was awake?

He's using the Force this year. Your eyes can deceive you.

mr. synellinden
09-25-2014, 07:58 PM
I just saw this picture that Sean Obi posted, and it got me all jacked up for the upcoming season.

4350

I didn't really know what thread to put it in, so I just made this thread, since I figure we'll probably need one sooner or later.

I'd just like to comment that Amile looks HUGE, just look at those beefy arms. I think he's going to have a monster year. If there were an ACC fantasy college basketball game, I'd pick Amile as my 5th round pick as a sleeper with early 2nd round value. Also, Rasheed looks like he shrunk . . . he looks scrawnier than Tyus Jones. I was hoping he'd come back stronger, so he can improve his finishing ability around the hoop, but he looks about the same as he did as a freshman.

My first thought upon looking at this picture also was - Amile is jacked! We should be a very strong rebounding team this year. Regarding Rasheed, remember last year there were reports about him not being in shape to start the season - maybe he's been focused on his cardiovascular fitness and comes into the season leaner, quicker and more explosive. This could also be a great thing.

roywhite
09-25-2014, 09:15 PM
I just saw this picture that Sean Obi posted, and it got me all jacked up for the upcoming season.

4350

I didn't really know what thread to put it in, so I just made this thread, since I figure we'll probably need one sooner or later.

I'd just like to comment that Amile looks HUGE, just look at those beefy arms

Wow, look at the size on that back row. Coach Cut wouldn't mind having some of these guys as pass rushers or blockers.

Unfortunate in a way that the college game has become more physical, but it's nice to see that Duke will not be pushed around. Clemson, Virginia, Pitt, and others were visibly stronger than Duke last year; shouldn't be an issue this season.

roywhite
09-25-2014, 10:11 PM
Who needs cinder blocks for measurement when you can use stacked stone and Gothic arches?

Lot of interesting comparisons in assessing size from that picture, but one of the most striking is seeing how small Coach K looks compared to that back row.

Jbsherr DUKE!
09-25-2014, 10:11 PM
Wow, look at the size on that back row. Coach Cut wouldn't mind having some of these guys as pass rushers or blockers.

Unfortunate in a way that the college game has become more physical, but it's nice to see that Duke will not be pushed around. Clemson, Virginia, Pitt, and others were visibly stronger than Duke last year; shouldn't be an issue this season.

Exactly is it just me or does Obi look almost as big as Okafor? I know it's a red shirt year and Okafor is likely gone but man he is a big boy!! Semi is no slouch either.

MCFinARL
09-26-2014, 10:55 AM
In order for Jefferson and Plumlee 3 to gain body mass, Rasheed agreed to let them eat parts of him. Yes, Rasheed has lost some height, but it really does look better on Amile's shoulders.

But on a sad note, the coaching staff still does not believe Rasheed has been a good enough teammate to become a team captain.

I have heard that should the team plane crash into a mountain, Rasheed will do the right thing.

? How do you know this? Have the team captains been announced? (I can't find any indication on goduke.com or elsewhere that they have.) I'm assuming Quinn is holding the ball here as the only senior--but that doesn't necessarily mean he will be the only captain. For that matter, it doesn't necessarily mean he will be a captain (though I suspect he will).

MCFinARL
09-26-2014, 10:59 AM
My first thought upon looking at this picture also was - Amile is jacked! We should be a very strong rebounding team this year. Regarding Rasheed, remember last year there were reports about him not being in shape to start the season - maybe he's been focused on his cardiovascular fitness and comes into the season leaner, quicker and more explosive. This could also be a great thing.

Agreed. And it also looks to me like he has some pretty serious arm muscle, even if he isn't beefy (so do Quinn and Matt).

MartyClark
09-26-2014, 03:00 PM
I'm really looking forward to this season. I'm particularly interested in:

1. The freshmen;

2. Point guard. How does K balance time between Cook and Tyus? Can they play together?

3. The low post. I think Okafor will be very good offensively. Can K coach a good big man? (just kidding) In an offense that has been guard or point oriented in recent years, how will this offense look"

4. Sulaimon. I can't predict how he does this year. Lot's of talent and seems to be a good kid.

5. Will Matt Jones get more playing time? Can he hit his shots?

Finally, I have third row seats for the game at Louisville. One of my long time attorney friends has lived in Colorado for 28 years but maintained his Louisville season tickets. I think I'm buying lots of beers for my friend and his group but I'm ready for this.

Kedsy
09-26-2014, 03:28 PM
5. Will Matt Jones get more playing time? Can he hit his shots?


Looking at our available personnel, Matt Jones is likely to be no better than our 8th man. He played 7 mpg last season, maybe he'll play 10mpg this season? Maybe not that much?

I know some people think Quinn might drop out of the rotation, and others are skeptical of assuming Justise will be in the top 7, but I have a hard time seeing either of those guys dropping below Matt in the rotation. Barring injuries we'll have a very deep team, and unfortunately that argues against big minutes for Matt, Semi, and Grayson, even though they all may be good enough to deserve those minutes under normal circumstances.

Dr. Rosenrosen
09-26-2014, 05:23 PM
Ah, the first serious PT prognostications of the new season. The tradition continues...

oakvillebluedevil
09-26-2014, 05:43 PM
Ah, the first serious PT prognostications of the new season. The tradition continues...

I just hope they all improved their diet this offseason :)


Big question for me is defense - can we stay in front of our men to avoid having our defense bend as much as it did last year?

On the offensive side - what will our floor spacing look like?

Not an expert here, but amateur googling shows that Tyus can shoot but struggles w/ consistency, and that Justise doesn't have the range that Rodney did. While Jabari wasn't lights out from deep, defenses respected him to some extent at the 4. Can Amile hit J's well enough (Even out to the elbows) to give our guys room to maneuver?

Can't wait to get going this year will be fun.

CharlestonDevil
09-26-2014, 05:54 PM
Looking at our available personnel, Matt Jones is likely to be no better than our 8th man. He played 7 mpg last season, maybe he'll play 10mpg this season? Maybe not that much?

I know some people think Quinn might drop out of the rotation, and others are skeptical of assuming Justise will be in the top 7, but I have a hard time seeing either of those guys dropping below Matt in the rotation. Barring injuries we'll have a very deep team, and unfortunately that argues against big minutes for Matt, Semi, and Grayson, even though they all may be good enough to deserve those minutes under normal circumstances.

I hope that whoever is on the floor, the first 10 minutes are so dominating that Matt, Semi, and Grayson are all playing 30 minutes a game.

Dr. Rosenrosen
09-26-2014, 06:02 PM
I just hope they all improved their diet this offseason :)


Big question for me is defense - can we stay in front of our men to avoid having our defense bend as much as it did last year?

On the offensive side - what will our floor spacing look like?

Not an expert here, but amateur googling shows that Tyus can shoot but struggles w/ consistency, and that Justise doesn't have the range that Rodney did. While Jabari wasn't lights out from deep, defenses respected him to some extent at the 4. Can Amile hit J's well enough (Even out to the elbows) to give our guys room to maneuver?

Can't wait to get going this year will be fun.
Couldn't spork you but kudos on the hilarious reference to the awful diet thread from last year. :cool:

mattman91
09-26-2014, 06:07 PM
I just hope they all improved their diet this offseason :)


Big question for me is defense - can we stay in front of our men to avoid having our defense bend as much as it did last year?

On the offensive side - what will our floor spacing look like?

Not an expert here, but amateur googling shows that Tyus can shoot but struggles w/ consistency, and that Justise doesn't have the range that Rodney did. While Jabari wasn't lights out from deep, defenses respected him to some extent at the 4. Can Amile hit J's well enough (Even out to the elbows) to give our guys room to maneuver?

Can't wait to get going this year will be fun.

Totes. Sources say they have been eating enough protein the last few months to avoid another first round exit from the tournament.

bbosbbos
09-26-2014, 09:21 PM
Hi, can anyone predict the 2014-2015 NC for me if the pre-season pics are indicators of the future performance? :p

Bluegrassdevil1
09-26-2014, 09:39 PM
? How do you know this? Have the team captains been announced? (I can't find any indication on goduke.com or elsewhere that they have.) I'm assuming Quinn is holding the ball here as the only senior--but that doesn't necessarily mean he will be the only captain. For that matter, it doesn't necessarily mean he will be a captain (though I suspect he will).

I was making a joke about Rasheed literally sacrificing his body as not being enough to obtain a captainship; just an attempt at levity.

Edouble
09-26-2014, 09:57 PM
I'd just like to comment that Amile looks HUGE, just look at those beefy arms. I think he's going to have a monster year. If there were an ACC fantasy college basketball game, I'd pick Amile as my 5th round pick as a sleeper with early 2nd round value. Also, Rasheed looks like he shrunk . . . he looks scrawnier than Tyus Jones. I was hoping he'd come back stronger, so he can improve his finishing ability around the hoop, but he looks about the same as he did as a freshman.

Muscle size does not always correlate to strength. If there are any body parts that are a reliable measure of strength, it is the size and density of the quads, glutes, and lower back. Arms may or may not be indicative of how much functional, translatable strength someone has. Rasheed could be squatting 100+ lbs more than he did as a freshman and still look pretty much the same, especially in warmup pants.

mo.st.dukie
09-27-2014, 12:52 AM
It's going to be so wonderful to see Rasheed dominate in games and watch everybody backtrack and start claiming they knew all along he would be great. In other pictures I've seen of Rasheed he is ripped. Keep in mind that he is a guard and does not need to look like Obi or Semi. He was out of shape at the beginning of last year but that doesn't mean he needs to be jacked up and huge this year to be "in shape." In fact, being leaner is probably better for him. I've seen a bunch of posts on this and other Duke boards that are really down on Rasheed. People forget how good he was his freshman year. He had a sophomore slump but he'll be back in a big way this year. Remember Nolan Smith's transformation from 8 ppg scorer his sophomore year to what he was a junior? It is possible for guys to make huge improvements in one off season.

Also, the angle of the picture and the way Rasheed is sitting has something to do with it (his left arm is behind Tyus' right arm). Look at the one on the Duke men's basketball twitter page.

Coach K has already commented on how impressed he was with how good of shape everybody on the team was in when he had that first 1 hour workout with them.

Troublemaker
09-27-2014, 01:24 AM
On the offensive side - what will our floor spacing look like?

Not an expert here, but amateur googling shows that Tyus can shoot but struggles w/ consistency, and that Justise doesn't have the range that Rodney did. While Jabari wasn't lights out from deep, defenses respected him to some extent at the 4. Can Amile hit J's well enough (Even out to the elbows) to give our guys room to maneuver?

With Jahlil and Amile presumably starting at the 5 and 4, respectively, it puts a premium on shooting at the other three slots. I think many here would prefer a lineup with Justise at SF, but unfortunately, shooting seems to be his biggest weakness entering college according to scouting reports and also videos that display an un-ideal shooting stroke. Also:

This summer, he shot a total of only 8 threes in 5 games with the USA U-18 team: http://archive.usab.com/misc/14_mu18_stats_usa.pdf
Last summer, he attempted only 1 three in 9 games with the U-19 team: http://archive.usab.com/misc/13_mu19_usa.pdf
Two summers ago, he attempted 2 threes in 8 games with the U-17 team: http://archive.usab.com/mens/u17/mu17_2012.html

I doubt that, as a freshman, he'll be ready to shoot three-pointers at the volume and efficiency that Duke will require from the three perimeter positions. Justise will play a lot, but I don't think he starts. We're probably going with three guards to space the floor as much as possible for Jahlil and Amile to go to work inside.

moonpie23
09-27-2014, 09:03 AM
I just saw this picture that Sean Obi posted, and it got me all jacked up for the upcoming season.

4350 Also, Rasheed looks like he shrunk . . . he looks scrawnier than Tyus Jones. I was hoping he'd come back stronger, so he can improve his finishing ability around the hoop, but he looks about the same as he did as a freshman.

I saw ( and shook hands with) Rasheed a few weeks ago at the FB game. He seemed fine.

MCFinARL
09-27-2014, 12:28 PM
I was making a joke about Rasheed literally sacrificing his body as not being enough to obtain a captainship; just an attempt at levity.

Sorry--my humor detector must have been off. :o

Troublemaker
09-27-2014, 12:33 PM
I doubt that, as a freshman, he'll be ready to shoot three-pointers at the volume and efficiency that Duke will require from the three perimeter positions.

To flesh this out a bit, I went back and examined Duke's past 20 seasons to see how many 3-pt shooters played in our predominant lineups of those seasons. (I did this quickly so a mistake is possible). I found that in 17 of the past 20 seasons, Duke played 4 three-pt shooters among our top-5 minutes-getters. That is, Duke has mostly been a 4-out-1-in offense over the past couple of decades.

The 3 exceptions to those 20 seasons were in '06 (Williams/McRoberts frontcourt) (http://goduke.statsgeek.com/basketball-m/seasons/season-stats.php?season=2005-06), '07 (McRoberts/McClure) (http://goduke.statsgeek.com/basketball-m/seasons/season-stats.php?season=2006-07), '10 (Zoubek/Thomas) (http://goduke.statsgeek.com/basketball-m/seasons/season-stats.php?season=2009-10). In those three seasons, we played 3-out-2-in lineups. In '07 and '10, the three perimeter players surrounding those frontcourt pairings shot 3s at great volume and very good accuracy.

So, of the past 20 seasons, it is only in '06 that Coach K put up with fewer than 3 very good three-point shooters in the predominant lineup. In '06, the amazing Redick shot with incredible volume and accuracy (42% on 330 attempts!) but he was only supported by Dockery (39.5% on 86 attempts) and Paulus (only 31% on only 70 attempts) in the main lineup. (Melchionni was 32% on 125 attempts but came off the bench and didn't play as much as McRoberts.)

So, if Justise is a low-volume, low-accuracy 3-pt shooter, it is unlikely that he will be among Duke's top-5 minutes-getters.

Duke has been a 4-out-1-in program. Putting just three good shooters on the court has been somewhat rare. Coach K putting only two good shooters on the court this upcoming season seems very unlikely.

Faison1
09-27-2014, 01:06 PM
I just saw this picture that Sean Obi posted, and it got me all jacked up for the upcoming season.

4350

Whoa! That is a tough looking group. My first impression is: If I saw them walking down an alley, I might turn around and walk the other way. The only smile is coming from the coaching staff. It looks like these guys mean business!!

Kedsy
09-27-2014, 02:18 PM
So, if Justise is a low-volume, low-accuracy 3-pt shooter, it is unlikely that he will be among Duke's top-5 minutes-getters.

Duke has been a 4-out-1-in program. Putting just three good shooters on the court has been somewhat rare. Coach K putting only two good shooters on the court this upcoming season seems very unlikely.

I agree with this, although I do expect Justise to be our 6th "minutes-getter." Your analysis also seems to answer the Tyus/Quinn question, as Quinn seems more ready to be a high-volume three-point shooter than Tyus does, so it would make sense for him to play off the ball, leaving Tyus at PG and for Quinn and Rasheed to shoot a lot of threes. Whoever ends up as 8th man, either Matt or Semi, will also probably shoot from the outside fairly often during the 10 or so minutes he's in the game.

subzero02
09-27-2014, 03:13 PM
Do I count 11 Mcdonald's Americans in that photograph?

BD80
09-27-2014, 05:28 PM
Do I count 11 Mcdonald's Americans in that photograph?

There's the beef!

I Wanda, ... Wendy, ... wonder what made me say that? I remember back when McDonald's had only served 12

sagegrouse
09-27-2014, 08:51 PM
Has no one yet remarked that seated photos can be grossly misleading -- some folks, including Ol' Sage, look a lot taller sitting down?

kAzE
09-27-2014, 10:25 PM
You're basing your (lack of) confidence in Rasheed based on one picture where he's sitting down? It's possible he is slouching a bit. It's possible Tyus is leaning forward and a bit in front of him. It's possible he simply has his muscles relaxed and his arms aren't pulled forward as much. In any event, you're really reaching trying to derive much insight based on a picture like this that's so far away and half the players are seated and blocking the guys in the back. But I do appreciate the post and the pic!

Whoa, easy. I'm not trying derive anything, just making a casual observation based on the photo. I fully expect Rasheed to have improved his game over the summer. I just thought he'd have put on a bit more upper body mass at this point, especially compared to Amile, who seems to have doubled in size since we previously saw him in a duke uniform. Rasheed still looks like a skinny freshman in that picture, but who knows, maybe it was just a bad angle, and he's actually huge. If not, I'm sure he worked on his game in some other way. I absolutely expect him to start and be a key player in the rotation. But the picture just gets me really excited about Amile ... what a stud.

JPtheGame
09-28-2014, 01:38 AM
very interested to see what they do at the 3 spot (yes, im aware that K doesnt utilize traditional positions). Love the idea of Tyus and Quinn playing together but not if it means Sheed sticking guys 6'6 to 6'8.

Bluedog
09-28-2014, 02:18 AM
Whoa, easy. I'm not trying derive anything, just making a casual observation based on the photo. I fully expect Rasheed to have improved his game over the summer. I just thought he'd have put on a bit more upper body mass at this point, especially compared to Amile, who seems to have doubled in size since we previously saw him in a duke uniform. Rasheed still looks like a skinny freshman in that picture, but who knows, maybe it was just a bad angle, and he's actually huge. If not, I'm sure he worked on his game in some other way. I absolutely expect him to start and be a key player in the rotation. But the picture just gets me really excited about Amile ... what a stud.

Yeah, I realize we don't have much to go on at this point, so making observations from a picture is as good as we've got -- and we all like to talk about the possibilities, so I understand where you're coming from. I just wanted to set the tone that trying to come up with anything close to conclusive statements based on one picture is likely a futile exercise -- and even less reliable than the big proclamations we make after the blue-white game! But I certainly understand the exercise and don't begrudge anybody for trying to discuss the basketball season.

BD80
09-28-2014, 08:44 AM
With Jahlil and Amile presumably starting at the 5 and 4, respectively, it puts a premium on shooting at the other three slots. I think many here would prefer a lineup with Justise at SF, but unfortunately, shooting seems to be his biggest weakness entering college according to scouting reports and also videos that display an un-ideal shooting stroke. Also:

This summer, he shot a total of only 8 threes in 5 games with the USA U-18 team: http://archive.usab.com/misc/14_mu18_stats_usa.pdf
Last summer, he attempted only 1 three in 9 games with the U-19 team: http://archive.usab.com/misc/13_mu19_usa.pdf
Two summers ago, he attempted 2 threes in 8 games with the U-17 team: http://archive.usab.com/mens/u17/mu17_2012.html

I doubt that, as a freshman, he'll be ready to shoot three-pointers at the volume and efficiency that Duke will require from the three perimeter positions. Justise will play a lot, but I don't think he starts. We're probably going with three guards to space the floor as much as possible for Jahlil and Amile to go to work inside.

Couple of problems, you are completely ignoring Justise's impact on the defensive end of the floor. My understanding is that he is a great team defender and a great communicator.

Two, the stats, as they often are, are misleading. These teams were loaded with shooters, so it wasn't Justise's job to shoot 3s. Further, the teams didn't shoot many threes (26% of shots in 2014, 21% in 2013, 18% in 2012).

In 2014, two guys, Jalen Brunson and Tyus Jones averaged more than 22 mpg. Who was 4th on the team in minutes? Justise. Ahead of some guy named Stanley Johnson. That would lead me to believe Justise could be good enough to start this year. BTW Justise made 3 of those 8 attempts, ahead of Tyus and Johnson in fg%. The leading 3 point shooter? Some kid named Kennard, 15 of 29 (51.7%). And Justise was the second leading rebounder on the team.

In 2013, Justise was the youngest kid on the 19-under squad. It was amazing that he made the team. And he was still tied for third in minutes played, with some kid named Aaron Gordon, and ahead of Jahlil Okafor. The team's leading 3 point shooter? Rasheed Suilamon.

The 2012 stats don't show minutes but Justise was the fourth leading scorer (behind, inter alia, Jahlil and Jabari Parker) AND LEAD THE TEAM IN REBOUNDING.

I suspect that Justise is too good a player, and has skills unique to this team (unfortunately), so that he will start and play significant minutes. I see him staying on the floor when Amile goes out to take over the floor, and I see him on the floor at the 4 with Amile at the 5 when we want to spread or press full court. Anyone remember Chris Carawell? Nobody called him a great 3 point shooter but by time he was an upper classman, you couldn't keep him off the floor. I am projecting Justise will be that kind of player (maybe Chris' junior year) this year.

Your diatribe on Justise's 3-point shooting might be more accurately directed at Tyus. I do believe 3 point shooting will keep Sheed and Quinn on the floor and is the key for Matt or Grayson to get PT.

JPtheGame
09-28-2014, 04:43 PM
Quinn and sheed with justise amile and jah is a great place to start. We can trust K to strategize from there. Shooting is great and I think Matt Jones will take a big step forward into that role this year. However, Duke (when they are at their best) starts with D and that starting 5 could really lock people down.

Kedsy
09-28-2014, 09:32 PM
Do I count 11 Mcdonald's Americans in that photograph?

Are you counting the coaching staff?

subzero02
09-28-2014, 11:02 PM
Are you counting the coaching staff?

Yep... Scheyer and Nate B. A. James

flyingdutchdevil
09-29-2014, 11:59 AM
...but watch out for Rasheed. No one is giving him enough credit.

The media and DBR has too much shiny-new-recruit-itis. I get it; it's a contagious disease.

But Rasheed is our most proven player thus far. He is arguably our best wing. He will score. A lot. And I have faith that he'll get back to insane defense.

I believe Rasheed will lead the team in 3pt FG, 3pt made, and points per game. He can play the 2 or 3, two positions where there is a lot of playing time in the core 7-man rotation (also a lot of playing time at the 4).

Ultrarunner
09-29-2014, 12:37 PM
...but watch out for Rasheed. No one is giving him enough credit.

The media and DBR has too much shiny-new-recruit-itis. I get it; it's a contagious disease.

But Rasheed is our most proven player thus far. He is arguably our best wing. He will score. A lot. And I have faith that he'll get back to insane defense.

I believe Rasheed will lead the team in 3pt FG, 3pt made, and points per game. He can play the 2 or 3, two positions where there is a lot of playing time in the core 7-man rotation (also a lot of playing time at the 4).

Not unreasonable for the scoring end of things (though Quin will likely be the first option among the guards). I thought Rasheed's defense was better last year than he was given credit for. He often did exactly what he was supposed to in getting the opposing player to go the direction dictated by the D, only to discover the rotations behind him were hopeless screwed. You could see the frustration on his face. . .

So, I mostly agreed with you right up to Rasheed playing a lot at the four. If that happens, we have some major problems/injuries. I will be shocked if he gets more than a couple of minutes all season there.

gumbomoop
09-29-2014, 12:54 PM
I believe Rasheed will lead the team in 3pt FG, 3pt made, and points per game. He can play the 2 or 3, two positions where there is a lot of playing time in the core 7-man rotation (also a lot of playing time at the 4).

I'm very surprised by the bolded prediction, unless you refer to end-of-game situations, when Duke is protecting a lead, requiring the opponent to foul on every Duke possession.

In such situations, yes, I could see Jahlil with 4 guards, Tyus, Quinn, Rasheed, Matt/Grayson, in which case Rasheed might nominally be the 4.

Even in such FT-only situations, if Justise is more dependable FT shooter than Matt and Grayson, then Justise would be the 4, Rasheed the 3.

roywhite
09-29-2014, 01:20 PM
...I believe Rasheed will lead the team in 3pt FG, 3pt made, and points per game. He can play the 2 or 3, two positions where there is a lot of playing time in the core 7-man rotation (also a lot of playing time at the 4).




So, I mostly agreed with you right up to Rasheed playing a lot at the four. If that happens, we have some major problems/injuries. I will be shocked if he gets more than a couple of minutes all season there.


I'm very surprised by the bolded prediction, unless you refer to end-of-game situations, when Duke is protecting a lead, requiring the opponent to foul on every Duke possession.

In such situations, yes, I could see Jahlil with 4 guards, Tyus, Quinn, Rasheed, Matt/Grayson, in which case Rasheed might nominally be the 4.

Even in such FT-only situations, if Justise is more dependable FT shooter than Matt and Grayson, then Justise would be the 4, Rasheed the 3.

I took FDD's original post to mean that playing time at the 4 generally was up for grabs, not so much how Rasheed could fit in there (which would be very rare as gumbomoop notes)

Seems to me Amile is the main guy at the 4, with Semi vying for time and Winslow filling that spot on occasion; so it's not certain how it breaks down, but there are options that could work well.

Troublemaker
09-29-2014, 02:18 PM
Your diatribe on Justise's 3-point shooting

Diatribe? I don't think anything I wrote was diatribe-like. To be clear, I wouldn't mind at all seeing Justise start at SF, and I obviously have nothing personal against him. My interest was in trying to figure out how likely that possibility was.

Based on the past 20 years in which Duke's preference is to have at least three good shooters on the court (and usually at least four good shooters), it seems unlikely to me that he will start. If he's actually a good 3-pt shooter (in defiance of scouting reports, shooting stroke, and reluctance to shoot in FIBA games), then obviously his odds go way up.


Couple of problems, you are completely ignoring Justise's impact on the defensive end of the floor. My understanding is that he is a great team defender and a great communicator.

It's not that I'm unaware or not factoring in that Justise is regarded as a terrific defender and rebounder. Those are the things that have him in the conversation about starting.

But, I think ultimately, it is more important to space the floor with three shooters so Jahlil (and Amile, too) can have space to operate inside. Your equation is different from mine, namely, you think: defense/rebounding > spacing for Okafor. My equation, and I think Coach K's equation, will be the reverse.

Time will tell if I'm right. No harm and nothing personal if I'm wrong. Certainly no diatribe.

flyingdutchdevil
09-29-2014, 02:22 PM
I took FDD's original post to mean that playing time at the 4 generally was up for grabs, not so much how Rasheed could fit in there (which would be very rare as gumbomoop notes)

Seems to me Amile is the main guy at the 4, with Semi vying for time and Winslow filling that spot on occasion; so it's not certain how it breaks down, but there are options that could work well.

As per usual, Roy White is correct. Plenty of time up for grabs at the 2, 3, and 4, but I expect Amile, Suilamon, and Justice to take 90%+ of it.

sagegrouse
09-29-2014, 03:52 PM
As per usual, Roy White is correct. Plenty of time up for grabs at the 2, 3, and 4, but I expect Amile, Suiaimon, and Justice to take 90%+ of it.

Why, it's the subs off the bench! Everyone knows and figures in the previous year starters and key reserves. All of fandom is waiting for the first glimpse of the highly regarded freshmen. Folks hardly ever consider the guys who have been paying their dues in practice and spot duty on the floor, guys who have learned the offense and defense and can't wait to put them in use in game conditions.

For Duke we are talking about Matt Jones, Semi and MP3. Both Matt and Marshall averaged around 7-8 minutes per game last year and had some productive moments. Marshall averaged about one rebound every four minutes on the floor and one block every 14 minutes or so. Matt was a defensive specialist, as I remember, and didn't get enough floor time to get comfortable with his shot. Semi played much less, but was 4-7 from 3-pt. land and 10-11 from the line.

I expect both Marshall and Matt to average close to 20 MPG. I expect Marshal to continue to improve,as big guys mature more slowly. Matt will earn playing time, I predict, and we know he has the strength to play the college game -- he is the first freshman to look 30 years old since Carlos Boozer. How is 20 minutes each for these two possible, you might ask? If we concede 30 minutes each to Quinn, Tyus, Amile, Rasheed and Jahlil, plus 20 minutes for Justise, that only leaves 30 minutes per game for Grayson, Marshall, Matt and Semi. True, but I still maintain that Matt and MP3 will be a major part of the 2015 team, and some of those 30 MPG averages will be more like 25, and Duke will be the stronger because of it. Plus, of course, we will see how well our freshman handle Duke defensive schemes.

My main concern is Semi, who needs to play -- and needs to earn time on the floor. The future isn't really good at Duke for guys who sit for two straight years, and I would like him to be a four-year player and a major contributor.

Just my $0.02.

gumbomoop
09-29-2014, 04:09 PM
As per usual, Roy White is correct. Plenty of time up for grabs at the 2, 3, and 4, but I expect Amile, Suilamon, and Justice to take 90%+ of it.

I don't mean to be disputatious, yet I am confounded by this prediction. I assume you have Amile at the 4. As he will play no minutes at the 2 or 3, your prediction seems to allot him 35+ mpg at the 4. Surely not.

Or, if we don't distinguish at all among the 3 players or the 3 positions, there are 120 mpg available at the 3 positions. But 90%+ of 120 mpg = 108-110 mpg. For those 3 players to log 108-110 mpg would mean each would average 36+ mpg. Surely not.

To be clear, I fully expect Amile to log more mpg at the 4 than anyone else. Easily. I fully expect Rasheed to play 30+ mpg. I expect Justise to play "starter's minutes," 20+, each game. Possibly start at the 3, with Quinn as "6th starter."

I've no doubt, in short, that these 3 will play a lot

flyingdutchdevil
09-29-2014, 04:14 PM
Why, it's the subs off the bench! Everyone knows and figures in the previous year starters and key reserves. All of fandom is waiting for the first glimpse of the highly regarded freshmen. Folks hardly ever consider the guys who have been paying their dues in practice and spot duty on the floor, guys who have learned the offense and defense and can't wait to put them in use in game conditions.

For Duke we are talking about Matt Jones, Semi and MP3. Both Matt and Marshall averaged around 7-8 minutes per game last year and had some productive moments. Marshall averaged about one rebound every four minutes on the floor and one block every 14 minutes or so. Matt was a defensive specialist, as I remember, and didn't get enough floor time to get comfortable with his shot. Semi played much less, but was 4-7 from 3-pt. land and 10-11 from the line.

I expect both Marshall and Matt to average close to 20 MPG. I expect Marshal to continue to improve,as big guys mature more slowly. Matt will earn playing time, I predict, and we know he has the strength to play the college game -- he is the first freshman to look 30 years old since Carlos Boozer. How is 20 minutes each for these two possible, you might ask? If we concede 30 minutes each to Quinn, Tyus, Amile, Rasheed and Jahlil, plus 20 minutes for Justise, that only leaves 30 minutes per game for Grayson, Marshall, Matt and Semi. True, but I still maintain that Matt and MP3 will be a major part of the 2015 team, and some of those 30 MPG averages will be more like 25, and Duke will be the stronger because of it. Plus, of course, we will see how well our freshman handle Duke defensive schemes.

My main concern is Semi, who needs to play -- and needs to earn time on the floor. The future isn't really good at Duke for guys who sit for two straight years, and I would like him to be a four-year player and a major contributor.

Just my $0.02.

Marshall and Matt are very different players, and I'm not talking about position and style of play (obviously). Marshall will absolutely be part of the rotation, but he can only play the 5. Marshall at the 5 - a tall, tall dude who can't shoot well - is perfect. Marshall at the 4 will be a disaster. Okafor is also a 5. He's big, loves to bang, rebounds like crazy. A great 5! And a great problem to have with these two big, big men. These two players will play 40 minutes combined. I'd be surprised if it was more or less (+/- 3 min, of course).

Matt may be the 8th man, and I suspect he will. Matt is a very good defender. Matt is a big dude (as tall as Rasheed, definitely heavier). I suspect that Matt will play anywhere between 10-15 min. But the problem with Matt is that he is not a good shooter, which is incredibly ironic given that he can into Duke with the reputation as a great shooter. If Matt can get the shot to fall, he'll be a great Sulaimon back-up. Also, a line-up of Sulaimon-Matt-Justise-Jefferson-Okafor would be a beautiful defense line-up.

With regards to Semi, I find it very difficult to see him on the court unless Justise cannot guard the 4 (and we don't know yet). Even if Justise can't, Coach K may ask Amile to not play too aggressive D to remain on the court.

IMO, the rotation that will eat as many minutes as possible will be 7 players: Quinn, Tyus, Sulaimon, Justise, Amile, Okafor, and MP3. It's the 8th-man and non-existent 9th-man that is up for debate.

Ichabod Drain
09-29-2014, 04:18 PM
Why, it's the subs off the bench! Everyone knows and figures in the previous year starters and key reserves. All of fandom is waiting for the first glimpse of the highly regarded freshmen. Folks hardly ever consider the guys who have been paying their dues in practice and spot duty on the floor, guys who have learned the offense and defense and can't wait to put them in use in game conditions.

For Duke we are talking about Matt Jones, Semi and MP3. Both Matt and Marshall averaged around 7-8 minutes per game last year and had some productive moments. Marshall averaged about one rebound every four minutes on the floor and one block every 14 minutes or so. Matt was a defensive specialist, as I remember, and didn't get enough floor time to get comfortable with his shot. Semi played much less, but was 4-7 from 3-pt. land and 10-11 from the line.

I expect both Marshall and Matt to average close to 20 MPG. I expect Marshal to continue to improve,as big guys mature more slowly. Matt will earn playing time, I predict, and we know he has the strength to play the college game -- he is the first freshman to look 30 years old since Carlos Boozer. How is 20 minutes each for these two possible, you might ask? If we concede 30 minutes each to Quinn, Tyus, Amile, Rasheed and Jahlil, plus 20 minutes for Justise, that only leaves 30 minutes per game for Grayson, Marshall, Matt and Semi. True, but I still maintain that Matt and MP3 will be a major part of the 2015 team, and some of those 30 MPG averages will be more like 25, and Duke will be the stronger because of it. Plus, of course, we will see how well our freshman handle Duke defensive schemes.

My main concern is Semi, who needs to play -- and needs to earn time on the floor. The future isn't really good at Duke for guys who sit for two straight years, and I would like him to be a four-year player and a major contributor.

Just my $0.02.

Do you expect Marshall and Jahlil to be on the floor at the same time? I can't see Marshall getting 20 MPG strictly sharing the center spot with Jahlil. Probably closer to the 12 MPG range IMO.

flyingdutchdevil
09-29-2014, 04:24 PM
I don't mean to be disputatious, yet I am confounded by this prediction. I assume you have Amile at the 4. As he will play no minutes at the 2 or 3, your prediction seems to allot him 35+ mpg at the 4. Surely not.

Or, if we don't distinguish at all among the 3 players or the 3 positions, there are 120 mpg available at the 3 positions. But 90%+ of 120 mpg = 108-110 mpg. For those 3 players to log 108-110 mpg would mean each would average 36+ mpg. Surely not.

To be clear, I fully expect Amile to log more mpg at the 4 than anyone else. Easily. I fully expect Rasheed to play 30+ mpg. I expect Justise to play "starter's minutes," 20+, each game. Possibly start at the 3, with Quinn as "6th starter."

I've no doubt, in short, that these 3 will play a lot

90% may have been an overstatement (75-80% feels more reasonable), but I do fully expect the following:

-Amile will play the 4. And he will only play the 4. He won't play the 5 unless Okafor and MP3 are in serious foul trouble.
-Justise will predominantly play the 3 and possibly the 4 if he can. Justise is a perfect college 3 and hopefully can be the Swiss Army knife that many of us think he can be.
-Sulaimon will play the 2 and 3, and he's very good at that. I suspect that Sulaimon will start no matter what for no matter what game, it's just a matter of where.

I do not believe that Quinn will play the majority of his minutes at the 2, unlike some posters. Quinn is a 1, and a very good 1.

I know people hate this, but I feel that the minute distribution will be as follows:

-Rasheed (35 min)
-Amile (32 min)
-Quinn (30 min)
-Okafor (25 min)
-Justise (25 min)
-Tyus (22 min)
-MP3 (15 min)
-8th-10th men (~15 min)

Duvall
09-29-2014, 04:25 PM
Why, it's the subs off the bench! Everyone knows and figures in the previous year starters and key reserves. All of fandom is waiting for the first glimpse of the highly regarded freshmen. Folks hardly ever consider the guys who have been paying their dues in practice and spot duty on the floor, guys who have learned the offense and defense and can't wait to put them in use in game conditions.

For Duke we are talking about Matt Jones, Semi and MP3. Both Matt and Marshall averaged around 7-8 minutes per game last year and had some productive moments. Marshall averaged about one rebound every four minutes on the floor and one block every 14 minutes or so. Matt was a defensive specialist, as I remember, and didn't get enough floor time to get comfortable with his shot. Semi played much less, but was 4-7 from 3-pt. land and 10-11 from the line.

I expect both Marshall and Matt to average close to 20 MPG. I expect Marshal to continue to improve,as big guys mature more slowly. Matt will earn playing time, I predict, and we know he has the strength to play the college game -- he is the first freshman to look 30 years old since Carlos Boozer. How is 20 minutes each for these two possible, you might ask? If we concede 30 minutes each to Quinn, Tyus, Amile, Rasheed and Jahlil, plus 20 minutes for Justise, that only leaves 30 minutes per game for Grayson, Marshall, Matt and Semi. True, but I still maintain that Matt and MP3 will be a major part of the 2015 team, and some of those 30 MPG averages will be more like 25, and Duke will be the stronger because of it. Plus, of course, we will see how well our freshman handle Duke defensive schemes.

My main concern is Semi, who needs to play -- and needs to earn time on the floor. The future isn't really good at Duke for guys who sit for two straight years, and I would like him to be a four-year player and a major contributor.

Just my $0.02.

Still hard to get 20 minutes for Plumlee and Jones and minutes for Ojeleye after giving rotation minutes to Cook, Tyus, Jefferson, Sulaimon, Winslow and Okafor, though. The 200 minute limit is unforgiving.

Ichabod Drain
09-29-2014, 04:33 PM
Still hard to get 20 minutes for Plumlee and Jones and minutes for Ojeleye after giving rotation minutes to Cook, Tyus, Jefferson, Sulaimon and Okafor, though. The 200 minute limit is unforgiving.

Lots of overtime maybe?

gumbomoop
09-29-2014, 04:34 PM
For Duke we are talking about Matt Jones, Semi and MP3.

I expect both Marshall and Matt to average close to 20 MPG.... How is 20 minutes each for these two possible, you might ask? If we concede 30 minutes each to Quinn, Tyus, Amile, Rasheed and Jahlil, plus 20 minutes for Justise, that only leaves 30 minutes per game for Grayson, Marshall, Matt and Semi. True, but I still maintain that Matt and MP3 will be a major part of the 2015 team, and some of those 30 MPG averages will be more like 25....

My main concern is Semi, who needs to play -- and needs to earn time on the floor. The future isn't really good at Duke for guys who sit for two straight years, and I would like him to be a four-year player and a major contributor.

I think -- not 100% certain, but think -- there's a working consensus -- not unanimity, but consensus -- on EK that the top 6 will be Tyus, Quinn, Rasheed, Amile, Jahlil, and Justise. Probably a working consensus that 7th man is Marshall. I'd think, personally, that Marshall will get more like 12-15 mpg, during which he can certainly have an important impact on the game.

Further, it's widely believed that by mid-season Krzyzewski will have his usual 7/8-man rotation. So, some portion of preseason lineup threads will focus on 8th man, and the debate will likely be about whether Matt or Semi will emerge as the 8th man, with just enough mpg to be considered "in the rotation."

I'll continue to hope (against hope, history, evidence) that well beyond mid-season K goes with an 8/9-man rotation.

Kedsy
09-29-2014, 04:38 PM
I expect both Marshall and Matt to average close to 20 MPG. I expect Marshal to continue to improve,as big guys mature more slowly. Matt will earn playing time, I predict, and we know he has the strength to play the college game -- he is the first freshman to look 30 years old since Carlos Boozer. How is 20 minutes each for these two possible, you might ask? If we concede 30 minutes each to Quinn, Tyus, Amile, Rasheed and Jahlil, plus 20 minutes for Justise, that only leaves 30 minutes per game for Grayson, Marshall, Matt and Semi. True, but I still maintain that Matt and MP3 will be a major part of the 2015 team, and some of those 30 MPG averages will be more like 25, and Duke will be the stronger because of it. Plus, of course, we will see how well our freshman handle Duke defensive schemes.

Marshall and Matt are most likely going to be the 7th and 8th men in the rotation. If so, there is almost no chance that either of them averages as many as 20 mpg; that's just not the way Coach K allocates minutes to the 7th and 8th guys.

This is especially true if you only look at close games against top opponents. Last season, for example, if you discount the "line change" games, Matt Jones averaged just over 4 mpg after January 1.

I'd posit that discounting garbage time, there will only be about 25 minutes to split among the bottom four guys in the rotation, and since (as others have pointed out) Marshall is likely to play center during most or all of the time Jahlil is on the bench (but probably not at all while Jahlil is on the floor, meaning Marshall is unlikely to approach 20 mpg in close games against good competition), then there will only be around 10 mpg or so available for Matt.

I think all four of our 7th to 10th guys are good enough to start and play big minutes on most teams in the country, and I admire your confidence in them, but absent injury or regular foul trouble for Jahlil, none of our 7th to 10th guys are going to approach 20 mpg. The only way Marshall or Matt are going to get to that level is if they bypass one of top 6 on the depth chart, which is certainly possible but I'd say is unlikely.

BD80
09-29-2014, 04:51 PM
... The 200 minute limit is unforgiving.

Bah. A few OTs and a bunch of DNPs will send the total of average minutes played north of 200.

superdave
09-29-2014, 05:15 PM
I looked back at elite freshmen recruits under Coach K who played the 4 or 5. Here are their minutes per game as freshmen and RSCI rankings -

#1. Jabari Parker 30.7
#1. Josh McRoberts 24.5
#2. Elton Brand 23.5 (top 5; couldnt find reliable rankings but recall Baron Davis at #1)
#8. Carlos Boozer 23.7
#8. Shelden Williams 19.2
#10. Chris Burgess 12.6 (top 10)
#14. Shavlik Randolph 13.5
#14. Ryan Kelly 6.5
#18. Mason Plumlee 14.1

Based on these, we should expect Okafor to play 24-30 minutes per game. Freshmen big guys are generally limited in their minutes by foul trouble and conditioning. Hopefully that is not the case for us this season, but we have enough depth to deal with either issue.

sagegrouse
09-29-2014, 05:35 PM
Do you expect Marshall and Jahlil to be on the floor at the same time? I can't see Marshall getting 20 MPG strictly sharing the center spot with Jahlil. Probably closer to the 12 MPG range IMO.

Yep. I don't think we can keep Marshall on the bench for 30 minutes a game, and I expect Jahlil to play 30 MPG. Marshall on the floor may give Jahlil a break on defending the post.

Versus the seven-man rotation and eight-man rotation argument, I mean holy cow! Who says we have the same rotation for 35 games (I'm hoping for 40)? Moreover, I very seriously doubt that we have 90 MPG per game for freshman players -- at Duke?

Troublemaker
09-29-2014, 06:36 PM
Marshall and Matt are most likely going to be the 7th and 8th men in the rotation.

I think there's more mystery to the rotation than what you've been saying in this thread. If I'm reading your posts right, you think you know whom Duke's starters, 6th man, and 7th and 8th men will be. Your predictions for those roles are solid predictions, don't get me wrong, but I would definitely take the field of all other possible permutations over any single permutation. There will be some surprises with Duke's rotation when all is said and done. That's my prediction.

BD80
09-29-2014, 06:42 PM
I think there's more mystery to the rotation than what you've been saying in this thread. ... There will be some surprises with Duke's rotation that will be revealed later.

One thing is ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN. No question, rock solid, as sure as the nose on your face.

Sean Obi will look like a first team all-American in pick up games.

What ever happened to our summer pick up game reports? How can we predict the rotation without such pertinent information?

jipops
09-29-2014, 07:48 PM
One thing is ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN. No question, rock solid, as sure as the nose on your face.

Sean Obi will look like a first team all-American in pick up games.

What ever happened to our summer pick up game reports? How can we predict the rotation without such pertinent information?

I'm also certain many will speculate that Obi may actually be as good as Okafor based on his appearance in street clothes and someone's cousin's mother's sister's husband heard he dominated in a practice.

Bluegrassdevil1
09-29-2014, 08:15 PM
I'm also certain many will speculate that Obi may actually be as good as Okafor based on his appearance in street clothes and someone's cousin's mother's sister's husband heard he dominated in a practice.

I once saw a photo of a seated Obi that was clearly the basis for Zeus "Jupiter" housed at Hermitage Museum. Unfortunately, I have also been privy to inside information that Rasheed was once seated in such a way that he was mistaken for Ardipithecus ramidus.

Newton_14
09-29-2014, 08:34 PM
One thing is ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN. No question, rock solid, as sure as the nose on your face.

Sean Obi will look like a first team all-American in pick up games.

What ever happened to our summer pick up game reports? How can we predict the rotation without such pertinent information?

And early in the season, Jeff Goodman will pen an article, stating unequivocally that Sean Obi was the best player on the floor at a practice he recently attended.

mgtr
09-29-2014, 09:31 PM
I know people hate this, but I feel that the minute distribution will be as follows:

-Rasheed (35 min)
-Amile (32 min)
-Quinn (30 min)
-Okafor (25 min)
-Justise (25 min)
-Tyus (22 min)
-MP3 (15 min)
-8th-10th men (~15 min)

FDD, I agree with your views, but I doubt that three freshmen play 72 minutes. We will have to wait and see how the season progresses.

roywhite
09-29-2014, 09:38 PM
-Rasheed (35 min)
-Amile (32 min)
-Quinn (30 min)
-Okafor (25 min)
-Justise (25 min)
-Tyus (22 min)
-MP3 (15 min)
-8th-10th men (~15 min)


FDD, I agree with your views, but I doubt that three freshmen play 72 minutes. We will have to wait and see how the season progresses.

Actually, I think I'll take the "over" on those 3 freshmen playing 72 minutes per game. I see Okafor and Tyus Jones playing more than the numbers FDD predicts.

Another betting line could be how many threads or how many posts we devote to minutes breakdown. ;)

UrinalCake
09-29-2014, 10:19 PM
I looked back at elite freshmen recruits under Coach K who played the 4 or 5. Here are their minutes per game as freshmen and RSCI rankings

I would also include Kyle Singler at 28.6 MPG as a freshman, much of which was spent at the 5. I think Okafor plays closer to 25MPG than 30. 30 is a lot for a freshman. Which leaves 15 minutes for Plumlee. I do think Amile will play a handful of minutes at the 5, mostly in late-game situations or when Okafor is out and opponents try to go small against us.

Kedsy
09-29-2014, 10:45 PM
Yep. I don't think we can keep Marshall on the bench for 30 minutes a game, and I expect Jahlil to play 30 MPG. Marshall on the floor may give Jahlil a break on defending the post

Well, as Superdave pointed out in an earlier post, it would be historically unusual for a freshman big man to play 30 mpg for Coach K. And if Jahlil played 25, that would leave 15 for Marshall, which seems a perfectly adequate number. But no matter how many minutes Jahlil plays, I don't think Jahlil and Marshall on the floor together makes much sense. On offense, neither of them would seem to have range outside of a few feet, so they'd clog up the middle and get in each other's way. On defense, neither seems particularly well equipped to defend smaller, quicker PFs. Obviously, we haven't seen Jahlil play yet, but for something like the ability to play PF, I think we have to assume it's not going to happen until he proves otherwise.


Versus the seven-man rotation and eight-man rotation argument, I mean holy cow! Who says we have the same rotation for 35 games (I'm hoping for 40)?

When people talk about the rotation, I think they generally mean either the rotation at the beginning of the season or the rotation at the end of the season. At Duke in Coach K's time, no matter who is the 7th guy and who is the 8th guy, they never play as much as 20 mpg. And there's almost no chance at all that both our 7th and 8th man play 20+ mpg (or at any rate it's never even come close to happening in the past).


Moreover, I very seriously doubt that we have 90 MPG per game for freshman players -- at Duke?

In 1999-2000, freshmen at Duke logged 93.6 mpg. In 1983, freshmen at Duke logged a whopping 123.4 mpg. So I think it depends upon the composition of the team and on the freshmen.

Having said that, I agree our freshmen probably won't average 90 mpg this season. But I wouldn't be at all surprised at 85 or even a little more.


I think there's more mystery to the rotation than what you've been saying in this thread. If I'm reading your posts right, you think you know whom Duke's starters, 6th man, and 7th and 8th men will be. Your predictions for those roles are solid predictions, don't get me wrong, but I would definitely take the field of all other possible permutations over any single permutation. There will be some surprises with Duke's rotation when all is said and done. That's my prediction.

Again, I don't think I (or anybody else) is saying there won't be variability in the rotation over the course of the season, but when people talk about what the rotation will be, they're generally talking either about the beginning or the end of the season. Over the summer, I performed a study of Coach K's rotation, as a combination of recruiting ranking and experience (http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?33892-Recruiting-ranking-experience-and-playing-time-at-Duke). Applying the formula from that study to 2014-2015, the formula strongly suggests that the first 6 guys in Duke's rotation will be: Tyus, Quinn, Rasheed, Justise, Amile, and Jahlil. Perhaps not quite as strongly, the formula predicts Marshall as the 7th guy, and either Matt or Semi as 8th guy, a little more likely Matt than Semi.

So, based on my research and also on what seems to make the most sense, it's possible that Semi might beat out Matt for 8th man/5th perimeter player, though more likely he doesn't. I suppose it's also possible that Semi beats out Marshall for the 3rd interior player but, again, much more likely that he doesn't. But absent a major injury or a complete meltdown on the part of one of our top players, I am very confident that the top 6 will be Tyus, Quinn, Rasheed, Justise, Amile, and Jahlil. I am somewhat confident that Marshall and Matt will start the season as our 7th and 8th man. If Semi beats one of them out by the end of the season, I'll be mildly surprised but not shocked. If Marshall, Matt, Semi, or Grayson jump into the top 6 for more than a game or two, I'll be very, very surprised.

To sum up, putting aside aberrations for a game or two, if we're talking about either the beginning of the regular season or the end of the season, I disagree with you. While of course it's not 100% certain, barring a major injury, I would take the prediction of Tyus, Quinn, Rasheed, Justise, Amile, Jahlil as top six (not necessarily in that order) and Marshall and Matt as the next two (again, not sure of the order) over the field of all other possible permutations.

Indoor66
09-30-2014, 08:54 AM
I'm also certain many will speculate that Obi may actually be as good as Okafor based on his appearance in street clothes and someone's cousin's mother's sister's husband heard he dominated in a practice.

Also, check out his guns and leaping ability!

flyingdutchdevil
09-30-2014, 09:17 AM
I would also include Kyle Singler at 28.6 MPG as a freshman, much of which was spent at the 5. I think Okafor plays closer to 25MPG than 30. 30 is a lot for a freshman. Which leaves 15 minutes for Plumlee. I do think Amile will play a handful of minutes at the 5, mostly in late-game situations or when Okafor is out and opponents try to go small against us.

Singler was in a unique situation. He was the only qualified player to play 2 spots out of his natural "3" position. We had Zoubek, but he was injured a lot and didn't really become a value-add player until his senior year.

This year, we have MP3, who is in his fourth year in the program. I highly suspect that he's very close to putting it all together. Regardless, Okafor won't have Kyle's pressure variables, given the good back up.

Lastly, I disagree with you on Amile. Amile can play the 5 to some extent (proved it last year and he put on even more weight), but a) he's a natural 4, b) there is a log-jam at the 5, and c) there is very little back-up at the 4. Names like Winslow (a very short 4) and Semi (has he improved?) have come up, but I'm not as sold. I think Amile is going to play 95% of his minutes at the 4, even if we decide to go small (and Amile is very mobile for a big man. He's like Lance Thomas with better rebounding and scoring and not as great D).

MCFinARL
09-30-2014, 09:24 AM
Actually, I think I'll take the "over" on those 3 freshmen playing 72 minutes per game. I see Okafor and Tyus Jones playing more than the numbers FDD predicts.

Another betting line could be how many threads or how many posts we devote to minutes breakdown. ;)

I'll take the "over" on that line no matter where it starts! :D

Troublemaker
09-30-2014, 10:17 AM
To sum up, putting aside aberrations for a game or two, if we're talking about either the beginning of the regular season or the end of the season, I disagree with you. While of course it's not 100% certain, barring a major injury, I would take the prediction of Tyus, Quinn, Rasheed, Justise, Amile, Jahlil as top six (not necessarily in that order) and Marshall and Matt as the next two (again, not sure of the order) over the field of all other possible permutations.

Thanks for that link to your lineup research! It's a very impressive model you created.

That said, for this season, I'll still bet on the field of all other possible rotation permutations, and yes, I mean the rotation at the beginning or end of the season. Call it my stubborn gut instinct vs. Kedsy's model. Your projected players 7 thru 10 on this year's roster are so talented that something surprising will come from that. I'd estimate you only have a 10% chance of hitting both the 6-man core and the 7th and 8th men projected. And I even feel the 6-man core is only a 50/50 proposition. (Maybe it's my butt instinct actually, because that's where those estimates were pulled from.) When Grayson Allen starts against Presbyterian in a few weeks, my gut (or butt) will stand victorious over your model and bask in its lamentations. For this season anyway.

superdave
09-30-2014, 10:40 AM
Thanks for that link to your lineup research! It's a very impressive model you created.

That said, for this season, I'll still bet on the field of all other possible rotation permutations, and yes, I mean the rotation at the beginning or end of the season. Call it my stubborn gut instinct vs. Kedsy's model. Your projected players 7 thru 10 on this year's roster are so talented that something surprising will come from that. I'd estimate you only have a 10% chance of hitting both the 6-man core and the 7th and 8th men projected. And I even feel the 6-man core is only a 50/50 proposition. (Maybe it's my butt instinct actually, because that's where those estimates were pulled from.) When Grayson Allen starts against Presbyterian in a few weeks, my gut (or butt) will stand victorious over your model and bask in its lamentations. For this season anyway.

Anyone want to bet we go to the platoon system for a couple of games again? Coach K needs to give us something to over-analyze, right?

I think I may have made the same argument for a couple of seasons in a row now - But platooning is great for keeping the energy level up and defining a role for the 8/9/10 guys in the rotation. It would enable the team to run a little more than normal too.

flyingdutchdevil
09-30-2014, 10:59 AM
Anyone want to bet we go to the platoon system for a couple of games again? Coach K needs to give us something to over-analyze, right?

I think I may have made the same argument for a couple of seasons in a row now - But platooning is great for keeping the energy level up and defining a role for the 8/9/10 guys in the rotation. It would enable the team to run a little more than normal too.

Sure, I'll bet against you.

I am 100% aligned with Kedsy: the 6 man core rotation is set for ACC play. The 7th man will be MP3, who's minutes will = (40 - Okafor). The 8th man - if he exists - will most likely be Matt Jones, because he can play the 2 and the 3 (I am also assuming he finds his shot). Semi will be used to go big if Amile is in foul trouble, but Amile will rarely be in foul trouble (another assumption on my end. I think Amile and Rasheed are set for break out years).

Last year, I didn't know what to expect, with a lack of a true 5, plenty of new players, and shaky seniors. This year, we have a true 5 (two who should be ready), plenty of new players that fill in needs (big man, Swiss Army knife), and upperclassmen who will be core members of the rotation (Quinn, Sulaimon, Jefferson). He have other questions as well, like our D, our 3pt shooting, and off-court/on-court leadership, but these don't make me as uncertain of our line up.

Kedsy
09-30-2014, 11:52 AM
Thanks for that link to your lineup research! It's a very impressive model you created.

That said, for this season, I'll still bet on the field of all other possible rotation permutations, and yes, I mean the rotation at the beginning or end of the season. Call it my stubborn gut instinct vs. Kedsy's model. Your projected players 7 thru 10 on this year's roster are so talented that something surprising will come from that. I'd estimate you only have a 10% chance of hitting both the 6-man core and the 7th and 8th men projected. And I even feel the 6-man core is only a 50/50 proposition. (Maybe it's my butt instinct actually, because that's where those estimates were pulled from.) When Grayson Allen starts against Presbyterian in a few weeks, my gut (or butt) will stand victorious over your model and bask in its lamentations. For this season anyway.

Obviously, we shall see. If Grayson starts, I'll be happy to bow down to your gut (probably not to your butt, though ;)) and proclaim I'm not worthy. There have been a few exceptions over the years (though so far, over 15 seasons, the model has hit 100% of the time on the top 6, so I think the odds are way better than 10%).

I agree with you that our 7-through-10 are extremely talented and could probably start on most teams in the country, but the depth isn't unprecedented at Duke. In the past 16 years (including this season), this will be the 5th time we've had four players outside the top 6 that had a "rating" of 3.0 or better (using the rating system from my earlier post, linked upthread):

RATING OF DUKE PLAYERS 7 THROUGH 10

2009: 2.0, 2.0, 2.0, 2.5
2008: 2.5, 2.5, 2.5, 3.0
2015: 2.5, 2.5, 2.5, 3.0
2003: 2.0, 3.0, 3.0, 3.0
2014: 2.5, 3.0, 3.0, 3.0

In 2008, 2009, and 2014, we employed an 8-man rotation (as the model predicted and as I suspect we will this season), but in *none* of those other deep seasons did someone who the model predicted to fall outside the rotation break their way into it. Doesn't mean it can't happen this season, but I'd say the odds are in my prediction's favor.

BD80
09-30-2014, 01:09 PM
... I agree with you that our 7-through-10 are extremely talented and could probably start on most teams in the country, ...

Fageddabahddit ... Based on practice, Obi could be starting for the Hornets this year!

Philadukie
09-30-2014, 04:37 PM
IMO, the rotation that will eat as many minutes as possible will be 7 players: Quinn, Tyus, Sulaimon, Justise, Amile, Okafor, and MP3. It's the 8th-man and non-existent 9th-man that is up for debate.

Yep, this is right. I'd expect the starting five to be Tyus, Quinn, Sheed, Amile, and Jah, with Winslow subbing at the 3-4 and Marshall subbing at the 4 and 5. Many folks seem to think that Marshall is strictly a back up at the 5, but he will be on he floor with Jahlil too, as back-up to Amile, with Winslow sliding there occasionally. I suspect once ACC play starts, we will not see Semi there at all.

The question is the 8th man. I agree that it will probably be Matt for about 8 to 10 mins/game. His defense will get him on the floor before others.

I don't see the others playing much at all. Don't ignore history, regardless of pre-season perceptions or predictions of depth. K likes to play 7, with an occasional 8th man getting no more than 10 mins. Others can (and have already) show the number of times that more than 8 (or just even 8) players have gotten more than 10 mins per game. It ain't much.

MChambers
09-30-2014, 05:21 PM
Yep, this is right. I'd expect the starting five to be Tyus, Quinn, Sheed, Amile, and Jah, with Winslow subbing at the 3-4 and Marshall subbing at the 4 and 5. Many folks seem to think that Marshall is strictly a back up at the 5, but he will be on he floor with Jahlil too, as back-up to Amile, with Winslow sliding there occasionally. I suspect once ACC play starts, we will not see Semi there at all.

The question is the 8th man. I agree that it will probably be Matt for about 8 to 10 mins/game. His defense will get him on the floor before others.

I don't see the others playing much at all. Don't ignore history, regardless of pre-season perceptions or predictions of depth. K likes to play 7, with an occasional 8th man getting no more than 10 mins. Others can (and have already) show the number of times that more than 8 (or just even 8) players have gotten more than 10 mins per game. It ain't much.
I just can't see Marshall and Jahlil on the floor together, or at least I don't think you'd be able to see the lane with both of them in there.

I think Kedsy raises a very interesting point about Duke's offense having been 4 out 1 in for many years. It's going to be very interesting to see how Duke runs its half court offense this year. Could have a big influence playing time.

flyingdutchdevil
09-30-2014, 05:24 PM
I just can't see Marshall and Jahlil on the floor together, or at least I don't think you'd be able to see the lane with both of them in there.

I think Kedsy raises a very interesting point about Duke's offense having been 4 out 1 in for many years. It's going to be very interesting to see how Duke runs its half court offense this year. Could have a big influence playing time.

Our most recent championship - 2010 - definitely didn't have 4 out 1 in. LT was a defensive specialist, a leader, and an opportunist when given the change. He is not a jump shooter at all, despite attempting a few jump shots per game with shaky results.

I agree that MP3 and Jahlil together spells trouble, but Amile, who also doesn't have a jump shot, is a perfect compliment as an opportunistic scorer with sick rebounding abilities.

dukebluesincebirth
09-30-2014, 05:28 PM
I don't know if it's already been posted, but dukeblueplanet posted a pic of Quinn and Amile on Instagram, saying that coach K officially named those 2 captains for 2014-15! Congrats to them!

Kedsy
09-30-2014, 05:40 PM
I don't know if it's already been posted, but dukeblueplanet posted a pic of Quinn and Amile on Instagram, saying that coach K officially named those 2 captains for 2014-15! Congrats to them!

It's on twitter now, too.

MChambers
09-30-2014, 08:44 PM
Our most recent championship - 2010 - definitely didn't have 4 out 1 in. LT was a defensive specialist, a leader, and an opportunist when given the change. He is not a jump shooter at all, despite attempting a few jump shots per game with shaky results.

I agree that MP3 and Jahlil together spells trouble, but Amile, who also doesn't have a jump shot, is a perfect compliment as an opportunistic scorer with sick rebounding abilities.

That's true. Of course, Okafor will be a low post scorer, which Duke didn't have in 2010, so the offense will be different. Or do you think he'll just set screens? :-)

NSDukeFan
09-30-2014, 09:03 PM
I just can't see Marshall and Jahlil on the floor together, or at least I don't think you'd be able to see the lane with both of them in there.

I think Kedsy raises a very interesting point about Duke's offense having been 4 out 1 in for many years. It's going to be very interesting to see how Duke runs its half court offense this year. Could have a big influence playing time.
I could certainly see Jahlil and Marshall on the court together. If Mason, Miles, Zoubek and Lance could all play together (I loved how that team contested shots inside), why would it be impossible for Marshall and Jahlil? Granted, Lance was a much quicker defender than anyone else in these groups and had a decent 18 footer as a senior that he hit in some big spots. I agree completely that the style of offence could play a big role on playing time.

Our most recent championship - 2010 - definitely didn't have 4 out 1 in. LT was a defensive specialist, a leader, and an opportunist when given the change. He is not a jump shooter at all, despite attempting a few jump shots per game with shaky results.

I agree that MP3 and Jahlil together spells trouble, but Amile, who also doesn't have a jump shot, is a perfect compliment as an opportunistic scorer with sick rebounding abilities.
I didn't feel LT's shots were at all shaky his senior year and remember thinking that he turned himself into a good shooter his final year. I agree that Amile could be a nice opportunistic scorer and rebounder and hope to see him as a shot contester as well, along with Marshall and Jahlil. I love it when the team doesn't give up easy shots inside. Count me in the group that expects Amile will be playing less than 95% of his minutes guarding the second tallest big. I expect there will be at least a few minutes each game where neither MP3 or Jahlil are in the game and Amile will be there with Semi or, more likely, Justise as a 4 and even a minute here and there of four guards on at a time with whoever the big man free throw shooting champ is.

I don't know if it's already been posted, but dukeblueplanet posted a pic of Quinn and Amile on Instagram, saying that coach K officially named those 2 captains for 2014-15! Congrats to them!
Congrats to the captains!

Kedsy
09-30-2014, 10:35 PM
Granted, Lance was a much quicker defender than anyone else in these groups...

I think you've answered your own question. The majority of college PFs are shorter, quicker players than I'd guess either Marshall or Jahlil would be comfortable defending. And on offense, Lance was a face-the-basket player (and Mason, too, in 2010), while both Marshall and Jahlil are back-to-the-basket players. There's a reason hardly any college teams play "twin towers."

NSDukeFan
10-01-2014, 05:43 AM
I think you've answered your own question. The majority of college PFs are shorter, quicker players than I'd guess either Marshall or Jahlil would be comfortable defending. And on offense, Lance was a face-the-basket player (and Mason, too, in 2010), while both Marshall and Jahlil are back-to-the-basket players. There's a reason hardly any college teams play "twin towers."

I agree that most teams play shorter, quicker PFs that would be difficult for Jahlil and MP3 to guard, those shorter, quicker PFs might not find it that easy defending bigs either. I think the biggest reason college teams don't play twin towers is that few teams have them. I expect twin towers will be played at UK this year and I think Duke's coaching staff may try it on occasion as well, with Jahlil and/or Marshall playing the Lance/ MP2 high post role on offence and guarding the team's second least creative perimeter scorer.

sagegrouse
10-01-2014, 08:50 AM
I think you've answered your own question. The majority of college PFs are shorter, quicker players than I'd guess either Marshall or Jahlil would be comfortable defending. And on offense, Lance was a face-the-basket player (and Mason, too, in 2010), while both Marshall and Jahlil are back-to-the-basket players. There's a reason hardly any college teams play "twin towers."


I agree that most teams play shorter, quicker PFs that would be difficult for Jahlil and MP3 to guard, those shorter, quicker PFs might not find it that easy defending bigs either. I think the biggest reason college teams don't play twin towers is that few teams have them. I expect twin towers will be played at UK this year and I think Duke's coaching staff may try it on occasion as well, with Jahlil and/or Marshall playing the Lance/ MP2 high post role on offence and guarding the team's second least creative perimeter scorer.

There is a tendency to consider match-ups against a "typical" opponent, with a "true" big man and a power forward with scoring potential. Fact is, few teams have scoring threats at every position, especially the inside players. There will be many games when Duke will be comfortable putting Jahlil and Marshall on the floor together, such as when one of the other team's big men is not a threat to score. And if the opponent's major scoring threat is inside, you have Jahlil to body up and Marshall to swat the shots away. At other times Duke will confront a smaller lineup and may tend to play down to the size of the opponent or maybe even dominate inside by using MP3 and Jahlil together.

flyingdutchdevil
10-01-2014, 09:11 AM
There is a tendency to consider match-ups against a "typical" opponent, with a "true" big man and a power forward with scoring potential. Fact is, few teams have scoring threats at every position, especially the inside players. There will be many games when Duke will be comfortable putting Jahlil and Marshall on the floor together, such as when one of the other team's big men is not a threat to score. And if the opponent's major scoring threat is inside, you have Jahlil to body up and Marshall to swat the shots away. At other times Duke will confront a smaller lineup and may tend to play down to the size of the opponent or maybe even dominate inside by using MP3 and Jahlil together.

I hope it happens Sage, as MP3 and Jahlil would form a scary frontcourt. But I just don't see it.

If I'm the opposing coach, I'm putting in a spread 4 or a mobile 4 right away.

Also, the upside of having two big 5s is that they can play aggressive D. I'm not recommending racking up the fouls, but it's a fantastic insurance policy for both Jahlil and MP3, knowing that the other can help hold down the position.

Ichabod Drain
10-01-2014, 10:47 AM
I hope it happens Sage, as MP3 and Jahlil would form a scary frontcourt. But I just don't see it.

If I'm the opposing coach, I'm putting in a spread 4 or a mobile 4 right away.

Also, the upside of having two big 5s is that they can play aggressive D. I'm not recommending racking up the fouls, but it's a fantastic insurance policy for both Jahlil and MP3, knowing that the other can help hold down the position.

We could always try a 3-2 zone with Jahlil and MP3... though history would not lend itself to that argument.

Duvall
10-01-2014, 11:01 AM
There is a tendency to consider match-ups against a "typical" opponent, with a "true" big man and a power forward with scoring potential. Fact is, few teams have scoring threats at every position, especially the inside players. There will be many games when Duke will be comfortable putting Jahlil and Marshall on the floor together, such as when one of the other team's big men is not a threat to score. And if the opponent's major scoring threat is inside, you have Jahlil to body up and Marshall to swat the shots away. At other times Duke will confront a smaller lineup and may tend to play down to the size of the opponent or maybe even dominate inside by using MP3 and Jahlil together.

In what ways do you think a Plumlee-Okafor frontcourt would dominate inside?

Kedsy
10-01-2014, 11:05 AM
There is a tendency to consider match-ups against a "typical" opponent, with a "true" big man and a power forward with scoring potential. Fact is, few teams have scoring threats at every position, especially the inside players. There will be many games when Duke will be comfortable putting Jahlil and Marshall on the floor together, such as when one of the other team's big men is not a threat to score. And if the opponent's major scoring threat is inside, you have Jahlil to body up and Marshall to swat the shots away. At other times Duke will confront a smaller lineup and may tend to play down to the size of the opponent or maybe even dominate inside by using MP3 and Jahlil together.

If we're talking about a decent, high-major team, even if the opposing PF doesn't usually score, he still probably has skills. So if an opposing PF isn't huge, he's probably going to be a lot quicker than either Marshall or Jahlil. And if that's true, he could very possibly turn into a scorer for that one game, because players with a big quickness advantage can generally get to the basket pretty easily.

And as for the argument that the smaller PF would have trouble guarding Marshall, that's sort of true, except if Jahlil and Marshall are both crowding around the basket, the advantage more or less goes away because the opposing center can basically guard both of them.

So I still don't see it.

kAzE
10-01-2014, 11:21 AM
It seems to that the 3 most interesting points of discussion here are:

1. Can MP3 and Okafor play together?
2. Pick 3 out these 4 to be starters: Cook/T. Jones/Winslow/Sulaimon
3. How deep will the rotation go?

1. I don't think they can play together, unless our opponent is going with a similar "twin tower" lineup, where the 4 also can't shoot. Even then, I think Coach K would rather opt to go small at the 4 and try to beat them on the perimeter. I see Marshall playing 10 minutes a game this year strictly in relief of Okafor, and then becoming the starter at the 5 NEXT year. I get that there's not much precedent for Coach K playing a freshman big 30 mins a game, but this is the 1-and-done era of college basketball. Okafor is the clear #1 player, and the star of our team. You could actually argue that Jabari was a freshman "big" last year, since he played almost all of his minutes at the 4 or 5, and he played 30.7 minutes a game. I think Okafor plays similar minutes, if not just under 30 a game. He will be the focus of our offense, and likely the player on the team with the highest usage rate.

2. I still think Winslow has to start. We just have no one else on the team who can do what he does on both ends of the court. I know I'm probably higher on him than just about anyone, so you'll just have to take my opinion at face value. I'm already on record with this, but I'll say it again: Justise Winslow will be a high lottery draft pick next summer. Sulaimon PROBABLY also starts, so then (in this scenario) it's a toss up between the 2 point guards for the last spot. I think Cook begins the season as the starter, with Jones coming off the bench, and then depending on both of their levels of play (and possibly Sulaimon's), the lineup will be adjusted accordingly. I think Winslow will start every game, and the remaining 3 will all get starts, and all 3 will come the bench at some point. The good news is that I think Jones and Cook can easily play together, but when that happens, I think Cook will be more of an off-guard. He's a better shooter, but Tyus is a more pure point guard.

3. I think most posters here are on the right track with the 7 man rotation for meaningful games. I could see it going 8 deep with Matt Jones or Semi if they are playing well. I'm more of a Semi fan myself, but if Matt plays that same level of defense and can actually hit shots like he did in high school, he could make a strong case to be in the regular rotation.

sagegrouse
10-01-2014, 11:24 AM
In what ways do you think a Plumlee-Okafor frontcourt would dominate inside?

Here's my sentence: "At other times Duke will confront a smaller lineup and may tend to play down to the size of the opponent or maybe even dominate inside by using MP3 and Jahlil together."

I suppose, if the opponents are 6-7 and 6-8 across the front, out seven-footers will be able to dominate.

Eakane
10-01-2014, 11:32 AM
Duke only has 4 players 6'8 or taller: if Okafor and Jefferson stay out of foul trouble, we have the flexibility to go big by putting MPIII and possibly Semi on the floor with them. But if they have 2 PFs in the first half, and 3-4 with 10:00 to go, we might be in a fix. Obviously, injuries can't be predicted and you just hope everyone stays healthy.
This is nothing terribly unusual for a top-tier team, though it sure would have been nice to have Turner in the mix.
This is an exciting team. Can't hardly wait to see them play...

Duvall
10-01-2014, 11:34 AM
Here's my sentence: "At other times Duke will confront a smaller lineup and may tend to play down to the size of the opponent or maybe even dominate inside by using MP3 and Jahlil together."

I suppose, if the opponents are 6-7 and 6-8 across the front, out seven-footers will be able to dominate.

Okay, but dominate how? Rebounding, defense, scoring? Shotblocking is, I think, the only area where Plumlee is more effective than Jefferson. That might be enough to give value to an Okafor-Plumlee frontline, but it seems like a stretch.

kAzE
10-01-2014, 11:42 AM
Okay, but dominate how? Rebounding, defense, scoring? Shotblocking is, I think, the only area where Plumlee is more effective than Jefferson. That might be enough to give value to an Okafor-Plumlee frontline, but it seems like a stretch.

I think Jefferson is superior to Plumlee across the board. I'm interested to see what effect his added muscle will have to his play down low. I think he will certainly be more of a factor on defense and on the glass, and his incredible length has always helped him play much bigger than his listed height. I think Jefferson will be one of the best power forwards, and one of the most improved players in the country this year.

Kedsy
10-01-2014, 11:56 AM
Duke only has 4 players 6'8 or taller: if Okafor and Jefferson stay out of foul trouble, we have the flexibility to go big by putting MPIII and possibly Semi on the floor with them. But if they have 2 PFs in the first half, and 3-4 with 10:00 to go, we might be in a fix. Obviously, injuries can't be predicted and you just hope everyone stays healthy.
This is nothing terribly unusual for a top-tier team, though it sure would have been nice to have Turner in the mix.
This is an exciting team. Can't hardly wait to see them play...

The key is how well Justise Winslow will be able to defend opposing PFs. At this point, I think he'll probably be able to do it reasonably well, which means that (absent injury), we should be OK unless ALL of Jahlil, Marshall, and Amile get into foul trouble in the same game. And even if Justise can't do it, I assume Semi can.

Turner would have been a luxury. We have plenty of frontcourt options.

sagegrouse
10-01-2014, 11:57 AM
Okay, but dominate how? Rebounding, defense, scoring? Shotblocking is, I think, the only area where Plumlee is more effective than Jefferson. That might be enough to give value to an Okafor-Plumlee frontline, but it seems like a stretch.

I dunno, Duvall, why this is such a lightning rod. I am predicting that MP3 will be effective on the court this year; in my preseason fantasy, he will earn and get 20 minutes per game, on a path to becoming our starting center in 2016, which is one reason he will get a good bit of PT this year. Is Plumlee better than Jefferson opposite Jahlil? No, not usually, but that doesn't mean he and Jahlil won't play together. Moreover, this is Marshall's fourth year in the program, and he has been coached up pretty well on Duke defense. I expect that all the freshmen will have learning pains, which I hope will be a distant memory come February or March, but may not be and may contribute to having an experienced seven-footer on the court..

Now, I appreciate fellow posters who get cognitive dissonance in a discussion where Duke plays a "twin-tower" offense, after all these years when K seemed to prefer a four-guard alignment. There is some precedence. Bubas used to start both Buckley and Tison. K started both Laettner and Parks in three games, and their combined PT of 45 MPG suggest that they were regularly on the court together, probably approaching ten MPG when Parks was healthy (he had a high-ankle sprain IIRC). Yeah, I know that Christian is Duke's all-time leader in three-point percentage, but he played much more an inside game than, say, Danny Ferry. And I won't cite 1988-1989, when Laettner started 15 games alongside of NPOY Ferry because Ferry played all over the court.

BTW it started snowing like crazy about 20 minutes ago, and everything here is white. I guess that rules out afternoon golf.

gwlaw99
10-01-2014, 12:09 PM
You can see how much bigger Jefferson's upper body is in this video (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h8rEvlU7Q1Y#t). Obi looks big too

Kedsy
10-01-2014, 12:16 PM
K started both Laettner and Parks in three games, and their combined PT of 45 MPG suggest that they were regularly on the court together, probably approaching ten MPG when Parks was healthy (he had a high-ankle sprain IIRC).

I don't think this is an apt comparison. Laettner not only had shooting range (meaning he and Parks didn't have to crowd each other near the basket), he was quick enough to guard most opposing PFs. Neither Jahlil nor Marshall fit either of those descriptions. Even if they do get on the court at the same time, I doubt they would be particularly effective together.

Also, in the year in question, Cherokee played just under 13 mpg, not the 20 mpg you're predicting for Marshall. I don't think anybody would be arguing with you if you'd said Marshall would play 13 mpg.

And when Buckley and Tison played together, it was a completely different era. Again, not a very apt comparison.

tommy
10-01-2014, 12:18 PM
If I am the opposing coach, and Duke has Okafor posting up down low and Marshall Plumlee, playing the 4, at the high post/free throw line area -- where he would pretty much have to be -- I am telling Plumlee's defender to play about 10 feet off of him. He is to sag far down close to Okafor, making entry passes to him almost impossible, as well as be completely available to stop any perimeter player who penetrates into the lane. This would enable my perimeter defenders to play very tightly on Duke's perimeter guys, thereby limiting their open looks and generally making their jobs much more difficult as well. What I'm leaving open is Marshall Plumlee to take 15 foot jump shots, and I would beg him to take as many as possible. This is not a formula for success for Duke, and that's just at the offensive end.

flyingdutchdevil
10-01-2014, 12:35 PM
It seems to that the 3 most interesting points of discussion here are:

1. Can MP3 and Okafor play together?
2. Pick 3 out these 4 to be starters: Cook/T. Jones/Winslow/Sulaimon
3. How deep will the rotation go?

Does anyone actually believe that Sulaimon will not start? I would be shocked if Sulaimon didn't start in the beginning of the season, at the start of ACC play, and at the end of ACC play.

Sulaimon is a) our best 3pt shooter (easily), b) our only proven player who can get to the rim with relative ease, c) a decent defender. There is zero doubt in my mind that Sulaimon starts and plays arguably the most minutes on the team.

I would change your statement to: 2. Pick 2 out of these 3 to be starters: Cook/T. Jones/Winslow

Duvall
10-01-2014, 12:46 PM
It seems to that the 3 most interesting points of discussion here are:

...

2. Pick 3 out these 4 to be starters: Cook/T. Jones/Winslow/Sulaimon


This actually strikes me as a not very interesting question, as it seems pretty likely that all four will play between 25-30 minutes in each game. It won't really matter who starts. (Alphabetical rotation?)

Kedsy
10-01-2014, 12:54 PM
Does anyone actually believe that Sulaimon will not start?

Personally, I believe Rasheed will start, but there are definitely people who think otherwise. In fact, I just saw that very comment bouncing around twitter an hour or so ago -- even the knowledgeable airowe seemed to agree with Rasheed as 6th man (https://twitter.com/BlueDevilLair/status/517331626536468480).

Laura Keeley's response to the discussion: "I see Duke fans' Rasheed Sulaimon angst is in midseason form."

All that said, I think those who believe Rasheed will have a Nolan-Smith-junior-season breakout may turn out to be disappointed. Before Nolan's junior year there were a lot of signs that Nolan had improved dramatically, and a lot of buzz about how good he'd become. I haven't seen or heard any such signs or buzz about Rasheed's summer. And while I understand off-season buzz doesn't always come true, it would seem better to have lots of positive buzz than no buzz. Also, Nolan had shown progression from his freshman year to sophomore year; Rasheed kind of regressed a little.

Don't get me wrong, I think Rasheed's a really good player, but I don't see too much to suggest he'll be the star of the team or All ACC or anything this season.

arnie
10-01-2014, 12:58 PM
If I am the opposing coach, and Duke has Okafor posting up down low and Marshall Plumlee, playing the 4, at the high post/free throw line area -- where he would pretty much have to be -- I am telling Plumlee's defender to play about 10 feet off of him. He is to sag far down close to Okafor, making entry passes to him almost impossible, as well as be completely available to stop any perimeter player who penetrates into the lane. This would enable my perimeter defenders to play very tightly on Duke's perimeter guys, thereby limiting their open looks and generally making their jobs much more difficult as well. What I'm leaving open is Marshall Plumlee to take 15 foot jump shots, and I would beg him to take as many as possible. This is not a formula for success for Duke, and that's just at the offensive end.

Maybe Marshall can develop a 12-15 foot set shot (if he's not worthy of being guarded).

flyingdutchdevil
10-01-2014, 01:01 PM
Personally, I believe Rasheed will start, but there are definitely people who think otherwise. In fact, I just saw that very comment bouncing around twitter an hour or so ago -- even the knowledgeable airowe seemed to agree with Rasheed as 6th man (https://twitter.com/BlueDevilLair/status/517331626536468480).

Laura Keeley's response to the discussion: "I see Duke fans' Rasheed Sulaimon angst is in midseason form."

All that said, I think those who believe Rasheed will have a Nolan-Smith-junior-season breakout may turn out to be disappointed. Before Nolan's junior year there were a lot of signs that Nolan had improved dramatically, and a lot of buzz about how good he'd become. I haven't seen or heard any such signs or buzz about Rasheed's summer. And while I understand off-season buzz doesn't always come true, it would seem better to have lots of positive buzz than no buzz. Also, Nolan had shown progression from his freshman year to sophomore year; Rasheed kind of regressed a little.

Don't get me wrong, I think Rasheed's a really good player, but I don't see too much to suggest he'll be the star of the team or All ACC or anything this season.

Yeah, I just read that about Rasheed on twitter. Thanks for the link.

Shocking.

I understand all your points, and agree that Rasheed regressed slightly from freshman to sophomore, but I attribute that more to Hood and Jabari being better than Sulaimon at what Sulaimon does best.

This year, we really only have Sulaimon. I am optimistic for a Nolan Smith renaissance, but I also agree it's a little unrealistic.

I still think he's a no brainer to start, and hope that he proves everyone wrong, including DBR and the Duke insiders. I still have tons of faith in Sulaimon.

flyingdutchdevil
10-01-2014, 01:02 PM
Maybe Marshall can develop a 12-15 foot set shot (if he's not worthy of being guarded).

Easier said than done. Remember the fans who cringed when J. Hairston, L. Thomas, or M. Plumlee 1/2 shot a jump shot? It'll be a lot worse with MP3, who has never attempted a shot outside of 4 feet in the last 2 seasons.

Kedsy
10-01-2014, 01:08 PM
Maybe Marshall can develop a 12-15 foot set shot (if he's not worthy of being guarded).

Maybe, although so far in his career he's only hit 24% of his 15-foot set shots from the free throw line. I'd suggest we let him at least get above 50% from the line before we even begin to entertain the idea of him taking that shot in the flow of the game.

sagegrouse
10-01-2014, 01:08 PM
I don't think this is an apt comparison. Laettner not only had shooting range (meaning he and Parks didn't have to crowd each other near the basket), he was quick enough to guard most opposing PFs. Neither Jahlil nor Marshall fit either of those descriptions. Even if they do get on the court at the same time, I doubt they would be particularly effective together.

Also, in the year in question, Cherokee played just under 13 mpg, not the 20 mpg you're predicting for Marshall. I don't think anybody would be arguing with you if you'd said Marshall would play 13 mpg.

And when Buckley and Tison played together, it was a completely different era. Again, not a very apt comparison.

Like Duvall before, you are picking an argument with my throw-away line, not my central thesis. In philosophy this has a Latin name, but I refuse to look it up Just let me indulge my preseason fantasy re MP3, and you can show I'm wrong sometime early in 2015.

Bluegrassdevil1
10-01-2014, 01:10 PM
I suspect that Cook will adhere to the '01 N. James, '91 McCaffrey role on the team. I personally believe that role will be the best for Cook, as like or not, he is not an elite level guard, and the team cannot achieve profound results with a star freshmen on the bench in favor of a mid-level senior.

Anyone anticipating Sulaimon to have a career like Nolan Smith will be greatly disappointed. There is nothing wrong with Sulaimon as a role player; however, he is quite unlikely of ever achieving the ceiling that Smith did as a junior, but there is nothing wrong with Sulaimon not achieving the levels of the bulldog that was Nolan Smith.

The only scenario where the 14-15 Duke team could win the ACC or make a deep run in the tournament is one where the three star freshmen (Okafor, T. Jones and Winslow) control the team's fortunes while the upperclassmen (Cook, Plumlee 3, Sulaimon, M. Jones, and Jefferson) fill in the gaps. I would obviously prefer the talent to reside in the upperclassmen and the gap filling to be with the young kids, but I think the freshmen big 3 are a profound step forward from last seasons' stars, and if all goes well, the upcoming Duke team will at least go down fighting, even if UNC, Virginia or the Karen Syphers prove to be better in the ACC.

Ichabod Drain
10-01-2014, 01:14 PM
Yeah, I just read that about Rasheed on twitter. Thanks for the link.

Shocking.

I understand all your points, and agree that Rasheed regressed slightly from freshman to sophomore, but I attribute that more to Hood and Jabari being better than Sulaimon at what Sulaimon does best.

This year, we really only have Sulaimon. I am optimistic for a Nolan Smith renaissance, but I also agree it's a little unrealistic.

I still think he's a no brainer to start, and hope that he proves everyone wrong, including DBR and the Duke insiders. I still have tons of faith in Sulaimon.

I agree with the bolded part completely and think Rasheed can really own his role this year of our best shooter/slasher.

arnie
10-01-2014, 01:18 PM
Maybe, although so far in his career he's only hit 24% of his 15-foot set shots from the free throw line. I'd suggest we let him at least get above 50% from the line before we even begin to entertain the idea of him taking that shot in the flow of the game.

I was sort of joking; but have been surprised over the years that some bigs simply can't make relatively short unguarded shots. With thousands of hours in cumulative off-seasons to practice and knowing the pro $$ available, it just doesn't happen.

johnb
10-01-2014, 01:28 PM
Like Duvall before, you are picking an argument with my throw-away line, not my central thesis. In philosophy this has a Latin name, but I refuse to look it up ...

Ignoratio elenchi?

FerryFor50
10-01-2014, 01:31 PM
Maybe, although so far in his career he's only hit 24% of his 15-foot set shots from the free throw line. I'd suggest we let him at least get above 50% from the line before we even begin to entertain the idea of him taking that shot in the flow of the game.

Eh, you can't really compare FT% and jump shot %.

By that logic, Amile would be a 61% jump shooter and would not explain why Nick Anderson shot almost as well from the FT line as he did from three point territory in 1996 (http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/a/anderni01/gamelog/1997/).

That said, none of the Plumlees showed a real propensity for a mid-range jumper. Miles was closest, but even his shots were questionable.

ChillinDuke
10-01-2014, 01:34 PM
Yeah, I just read that about Rasheed on twitter. Thanks for the link.

Shocking.

I understand all your points, and agree that Rasheed regressed slightly from freshman to sophomore, but I attribute that more to Hood and Jabari being better than Sulaimon at what Sulaimon does best.

This year, we really only have Sulaimon. I am optimistic for a Nolan Smith renaissance, but I also agree it's a little unrealistic.

I still think he's a no brainer to start, and hope that he proves everyone wrong, including DBR and the Duke insiders. I still have tons of faith in Sulaimon.

Have to agree with you, FDD.

I can't imagine a starting lineup that doesn't include Big Jah, Amile, and Rasheed. With Quinn being announced a capitan, I'd probably throw him in as the most likely candidate of the other three names being thrown around. So for me, "Question #2", which it can hereby officially be called during the Preseason (and maybe even Phase 0), becomes "2. Who starts? Tyus or Justise?"

Perhaps the most intriguing part of my version of Question #2 is the implications that the answer would have on the starting lineup in terms of size, style, defense, etc.

- Chillin

tommy
10-01-2014, 02:10 PM
In his announcement of the captains, didn't K refer to Quinn as a "returning starter?" I know that doesn't necessarily mean he's going to be a starter again, but I'm not sure I've ever heard of the term being used to describe a guy who started last year, but won't start this year. If that's the case, that might be a hint that K sees Quinn as a starter going into the year.

johnb
10-01-2014, 02:49 PM
In his announcement of the captains, didn't K refer to Quinn as a "returning starter?" I know that doesn't necessarily mean he's going to be a starter again, but I'm not sure I've ever heard of the term being used to describe a guy who started last year, but won't start this year. If that's the case, that might be a hint that K sees Quinn as a starter going into the year.

It'd take someone with more research skills than myself, but my hunch is that when the DBR crowd is uncertain about who's going to start, then so is the coaching staff. As in, during the first month or two of the season, we'll likely see Tyus, Justise, Rasheed, and Quinn competing for the 3 wing starting spots alongside the 2 presumed interior starters. All that could change if someone strongly out- or underperforms, but I'd be really surprised if K has it in firmly in his mind that Rasheed is a definite starter over, say, Justise, by the end of the season. I hope, of course, that we have 7 or 8 guys who play well enough that we can't find enough minutes for all of them...

Kedsy
10-01-2014, 02:52 PM
Eh, you can't really compare FT% and jump shot %.

Well, actually we were talking about comparing FT% and set shot % (not jump shot %), since the post to which I responded had suggested (apparently half-jokingly) that Marshall learn to shoot 15 foot set shots since nobody will be guarding him. Since people haven't really used set shots (other than from the free throw line) in games since the 1950s, there really isn't any relevant data, but I strongly suspect if Marshall could adequately shoot a 15 foot set shot he'd be better than a 24% free throw shooter.

gurufrisbee
10-01-2014, 02:52 PM
Love the picks for captains.

Rasheed showed a lot when he was the leader of the "second five" unit last season during the very successful run of time when Coach K was subbing all five out. And even then, sometimes Rasheed got to stay in the game when four of the first five came back on. I doubt Coach K is necessarily looking at doing that again, but for quite a while now he has seemed to enjoy starting or at least having three guards out there at the same time, so I could easily see a situation where the starting five is T.Jones, Cook, Jefferson, Okafor, and either M. Jones or Winslow or maybe Allen but then Sheed comes in for anyone other than Jefferson or Okafor as soon as there is a good reason to get him in and in crunch time Sheed is part of the five out there with Tyus, Cook, Amile, and Okafor. It's "6th man" in the sense that he does not technically start, but he plays when it counts and he easily is in the top five in minutes played (like a Ginobili or McHale later in his Celtics career).

Kedsy
10-01-2014, 03:07 PM
Rasheed showed a lot when he was the leader of the "second five" unit last season during the very successful run of time when Coach K was subbing all five out. And even then, sometimes Rasheed got to stay in the game when four of the first five came back on. I doubt Coach K is necessarily looking at doing that again, but for quite a while now he has seemed to enjoy starting or at least having three guards out there at the same time, so I could easily see a situation where the starting five is T.Jones, Cook, Jefferson, Okafor, and either M. Jones or Winslow or maybe Allen but then Sheed comes in for anyone other than Jefferson or Okafor as soon as there is a good reason to get him in and in crunch time Sheed is part of the five out there with Tyus, Cook, Amile, and Okafor. It's "6th man" in the sense that he does not technically start, but he plays when it counts and he easily is in the top five in minutes played (like a Ginobili or McHale later in his Celtics career).

Actually, in the scenario you suggest, Rasheed could sub in for Amile too (with Justise sliding over to PF). In some games, he could even sub in for Jahlil, when we can get away with the very small Amile, Justise, Rasheed, Quinn, Tyus lineup.

That said, your suggestion that Matt or Grayson might start while Rasheed came off the bench seems very unlikely to me. What could Matt or Grayson bring to the starting lineup that Rasheed doesn't do better? And if you think Matt or Grayson are that good, why can't one of them play the Swiss army knife role that you envision for Rasheed?

NSDukeFan
10-01-2014, 03:47 PM
Does anyone actually believe that Sulaimon will not start? I would be shocked if Sulaimon didn't start in the beginning of the season, at the start of ACC play, and at the end of ACC play.

Sulaimon is a) our best 3pt shooter (easily), b) our only proven player who can get to the rim with relative ease, c) a decent defender. There is zero doubt in my mind that Sulaimon starts and plays arguably the most minutes on the team.

I would change your statement to: 2. Pick 2 out of these 3 to be starters: Cook/T. Jones/Winslow
a) I would say that Rasheed AND Quinn are the team's two best returning 3pt shooters, though I have hope that Tyus is going to be a good long range shooter as well.
b) Rasheed AND Quinn are the only returning players who can get to the rim with relative ease (though hopefully, they will both improve their passing while driving and finishing which have been inconsistent), but I expect this will not be a problem for Tyus, as I expect him to be able to get wherever he wants on the court and Justise, who I hope will be able to create some opportunities off the dribble as well.
c) I agree Rasheed is a decent defender and I am hoping the whole team has a better understanding of team defense and their roles this year, so everyone looks better. I agree with Duvall that all of the top 6 are going to play 25-30 minutes and it doesn't matter that much who starts and who comes off the bench, but I am one of those that find it fascinating thinking about it and how many minutes everyone will get (hoping players 7-10 get some playing time as well, but not being concerned for team development if they don't.)

This actually strikes me as a not very interesting question, as it seems pretty likely that all four will play between 25-30 minutes in each game. It won't really matter who starts. (Alphabetical rotation?)

Billy Dat
10-01-2014, 09:59 PM
In his announcement of the captains, didn't K refer to Quinn as a "returning starter?" I know that doesn't necessarily mean he's going to be a starter again, but I'm not sure I've ever heard of the term being used to describe a guy who started last year, but won't start this year. If that's the case, that might be a hint that K sees Quinn as a starter going into the year.

Maybe just not the starter at PG?

"Capel said Jones will be the starter, but that Cook could be one of Duke’s best shooters. And with the No. 1 recruit in the country, center Jahlil Okafor, drawing defenses to the paint, there will be open shots on the perimeter."

Read more here: http://www.newsobserver.com/2014/10/01/4199168_confidence-in-himself-allows-quinn.html?sp=/99/103/119/269/&rh=1#storylink=cpy

gurufrisbee
10-01-2014, 10:34 PM
Actually, in the scenario you suggest, Rasheed could sub in for Amile too (with Justise sliding over to PF). In some games, he could even sub in for Jahlil, when we can get away with the very small Amile, Justise, Rasheed, Quinn, Tyus lineup.

That said, your suggestion that Matt or Grayson might start while Rasheed came off the bench seems very unlikely to me. What could Matt or Grayson bring to the starting lineup that Rasheed doesn't do better? And if you think Matt or Grayson are that good, why can't one of them play the Swiss army knife role that you envision for Rasheed?

I suppose you are right, though I just can't imagine Duke going that small with guys like MP and Semi on the bench. Or maybe after seeing us get abused in the paint and on the glass last year so much I just don't want to imagine it.

I believe the theory behind keeping one of your best players as the 6th man is a combination of A) still having more talent out there than the opponent part way into the game when teams are both subbing and B) you can start someone like MJones or Winslow on the other team's best offensive perimeter player and they can totally focus on harassing them with super energy knowing that in three or four minutes they'll be on the bench to rest even if they have two fouls already. I kind of love the idea of Paige and Brogdan and Cooney and Grant and Rozier all starting games with Jones/Winslow harassing them defensively with intensity and pressure no one can keep up for forty minutes only then to give way to Sheed four minutes in.

Tappan Zee Devil
10-01-2014, 10:47 PM
Maybe just not the starter at PG?

"Capel said Jones will be the starter, but that Cook could be one of Duke’s best shooters. And with the No. 1 recruit in the country, center Jahlil Okafor, drawing defenses to the paint, there will be open shots on the perimeter."

Read more here: http://www.newsobserver.com/2014/10/01/4199168_confidence-in-himself-allows-quinn.html?sp=/99/103/119/269/&rh=1#storylink=cpy

At ESPN, Jeff Goodman projects Winslow, Okafor and Jones as all starting, along with Amile and Rasheed. He lists Quinn and Allen as "other possibilities", but seems to see Quinn as the sixth man.

sagegrouse
10-01-2014, 11:01 PM
At ESPN, Jeff Goodman projects Winslow, Okafor and Jones as all starting, along with Amile and Rasheed. He lists Quinn and Allen as "other possibilities", but seems to see Quinn as the sixth man.

I know Jeff Goodman has good sources at Duke, but he may be falling victim to "second-hand coach speak," in which this line is being given out with an ulterior motive. (Offhand questions: Has anyone ever seen an ulterior, say of a building? Could "ulterior design" ever become a recognized profession, with all the appropriate certifications?) Question is, is this message designed to encourage the frosh or to motivate the upperclassmen?

Kedsy
10-01-2014, 11:05 PM
"Capel said Jones will be the starter, but that Cook could be one of Duke’s best shooters. And with the No. 1 recruit in the country, center Jahlil Okafor, drawing defenses to the paint, there will be open shots on the perimeter."

Read more here: http://www.newsobserver.com/2014/10/01/4199168_confidence-in-himself-allows-quinn.html?sp=/99/103/119/269/&rh=1#storylink=cpy

Yeah, that article makes it clear that Tyus will start, at least at the beginning of the season. So all the people predicting Tyus coming off the bench may need to retool their thoughts.


I kind of love the idea of Paige and Brogdan and Cooney and Grant and Rozier all starting games with Jones/Winslow harassing them defensively with intensity and pressure no one can keep up for forty minutes only then to give way to Sheed four minutes in.

Well, except all the guys you name are guards, and if Matt or Justise start, they'll be starting at SF, so they probably won't guard any of those guys.


At ESPN, Jeff Goodman projects Winslow, Okafor and Jones as all starting, along with Amile and Rasheed. He lists Quinn and Allen as "other possibilities", but seems to see Quinn as the sixth man.

Barring something unforeseen, Grayson is likely to be our 10th man. If you're right about Goodman listing him as a "possibility" to start, that alone tells me he's not plugged in enough for us to take his projections seriously.

Someone upthread raised the very real point that shooting will be at a premium on this year's Duke squad. I agree with that point, which suggests that Quinn and Rasheed will need to be playing a lot of minutes, since they may be the only real shooters we have. So, until we hear otherwise from the coaching staff, I'm sticking with Tyus/Quinn/Rasheed/Amile/Jahlil as my projected starting lineup.

sagegrouse
10-01-2014, 11:08 PM
At ESPN, Jeff Goodman projects Winslow, Okafor and Jones as all starting, along with Amile and Rasheed. He lists Quinn and Allen as "other possibilities", but seems to see Quinn as the sixth man.

Alternative explanation: losing to Mercer is effing unacceptable, and the returning players are all starting at the end of the bench and working their way upwards. Good approach, Coach K!

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
10-02-2014, 03:48 AM
I suspect that Cook will adhere to the '01 N. James, '91 McCaffrey role on the team. I personally believe that role will be the best for Cook, as like or not, he is not an elite level guard, and the team cannot achieve profound results with a star freshmen on the bench in favor of a mid-level senior.

Anyone anticipating Sulaimon to have a career like Nolan Smith will be greatly disappointed. There is nothing wrong with Sulaimon as a role player; however, he is quite unlikely of ever achieving the ceiling that Smith did as a junior, but there is nothing wrong with Sulaimon not achieving the levels of the bulldog that was Nolan Smith.

The only scenario where the 14-15 Duke team could win the ACC or make a deep run in the tournament is one where the three star freshmen (Okafor, T. Jones and Winslow) control the team's fortunes while the upperclassmen (Cook, Plumlee 3, Sulaimon, M. Jones, and Jefferson) fill in the gaps. I would obviously prefer the talent to reside in the upperclassmen and the gap filling to be with the young kids, but I think the freshmen big 3 are a profound step forward from last seasons' stars, and if all goes well, the upcoming Duke team will at least go down fighting, even if UNC, Virginia or the Karen Syphers prove to be better in the ACC.

What about a scenario in which Sulaimon channels his inner Carmelo Anthony and becomes and unstoppable scoring machine and averages 29 points per game? How about a scenario where Cook grows a third arm between now and the NCAA Tournament? Or, the elder two Plumlees find a loophole where they can return to the Duke team for one more semester? Or, perhaps, some catastrophic even occurs, rendering the other 67 teams unable to attend the tournament, and only Duke can play?

/end sarcasm

Seriously though, speaking in absolutes about what must occur this season in rather absurd. Regular practices haven't even started yet, and non of the "three star freshmen" how "control the team's fortunes" have played a meaningful minute in a Duke uniform. It seems to me not only conceivable but likely that one of these annointed three might end up less-than-advertised, or be a little slower to adjust to the college game. If that happens, we are fortunate to have several veterans who can participate in "gap filling" sufficiently enough for all or part of this season that we could still win the ACC and/or make a deep run.

These kids have enough pressure on them already. Making them solely responsible for the success of next year's Duke team is unfair and irresponsible. There's plenty of time for broad platitudes and over-generalizations about our boys once the season tips off. For reference, just look back at some of last year's post-game threads.

In the meantime, I very much look forward to seeing what these young guys can bring to the table. All the scuttlebutt seems to be pointed in a really exciting direction. There is a serious chill in the air, and basketball season is not far away!

sagegrouse
10-02-2014, 08:52 AM
I suspect that Cook will adhere to the '01 N. James, '91 McCaffrey role on the team. I personally believe that role will be the best for Cook, as like or not, he is not an elite level guard, and the team cannot achieve profound results with a star freshmen on the bench in favor of a mid-level senior.

Anyone anticipating Sulaimon to have a career like Nolan Smith will be greatly disappointed. There is nothing wrong with Sulaimon as a role player; however, he is quite unlikely of ever achieving the ceiling that Smith did as a junior, but there is nothing wrong with Sulaimon not achieving the levels of the bulldog that was Nolan Smith.

The only scenario where the 14-15 Duke team could win the ACC or make a deep run in the tournament is one where the three star freshmen (Okafor, T. Jones and Winslow) control the team's fortunes while the upperclassmen (Cook, Plumlee 3, Sulaimon, M. Jones, and Jefferson) fill in the gaps. I would obviously prefer the talent to reside in the upperclassmen and the gap filling to be with the young kids, but I think the freshmen big 3 are a profound step forward from last seasons' stars, and if all goes well, the upcoming Duke team will at least go down fighting, even if UNC, Virginia or the Karen Syphers prove to be better in the ACC.

Mountain Devil reflects my comments, but, if you don't mind an observation: it used to be said that the only two classes of people who believed in the perfectibility of mankind are Catholic priests and recruiting sergeants. Bluegrassdevil1, I don't think you are going to join the club.

There is a huge amount of praise for the young'uns coming out of the Duke program -- direct quotes from coaches, second-hand stories (Goodman et al.) and comments from players. But you say, "the only scenario where the 14-15 Duke team could win the ACC or make a deep run in the tournament is one where the the three star freshmen ... control the team's fortunes while the upperclassmen ... fill in the gaps." Hunh??? What about the scenario where Quinn and Rasheed play at the level shown in their best games last year, Amile develops more of an offensive game, AND the freshman are as good as advertised. Sounds like the best of both worlds to me and should lead to a really strong season for the Devils, including the March heroics, as the freshmen really gel.

Considering that a good-but-not-great Duke team last year lost its two best players and over half its points, it is reasonable to conclude that the new guys must play a strong role for Duke to improve over 2014. But there doesn't seem, to me at least, any reason that our best returning players need to fade into the background. Au contraire....

Billy Dat
10-02-2014, 09:33 AM
I'm sticking with Tyus/Quinn/Rasheed/Amile/Jahlil as my projected starting lineup.

That 3 guard line-up leaves a ton of interesting possibilities for the rest of the rotation. What's the strategy with the first sub, foul trouble aside....does he come with Winslow for Quinn and we get bigger? Winslow for Jones and Quinn shifts to PG to keep more shooting on the floor? Could Jones' mythical shooting stroke have finally been rediscovered so that he can justify being a rotation guy?


Seriously though, speaking in absolutes about what must occur this season in rather absurd. Regular practices haven't even started yet, and non of the "three star freshmen" how "control the team's fortunes" have played a meaningful minute in a Duke uniform.

With the revised NCAA rules about coach "offseason" access, these guys have actually been participating in structured workouts for a long time already. They aren't official practices, but the coaches have seen plenty, enough for Capel to be making pretty bold statements about Jones as a starter. Besides, freshmen playing huge roles on title teams is a pretty current blueprint...


There is a huge amount of praise for the young'uns coming out of the Duke program -- direct quotes from coaches, second-hand stories (Goodman et al.) and comments from players. But you say, "the only scenario where the 14-15 Duke team could win the ACC or make a deep run in the tournament is one where the the three star freshmen ... control the team's fortunes while the upperclassmen ... fill in the gaps." Hunh??? What about the scenario where Quinn and Rasheed play at the level shown in their best games last year, Amile develops more of an offensive game, AND the freshman are as good as advertised. Sounds like the best of both worlds to me and should lead to a really strong season for the Devils, including the March heroics, as the freshmen really gel. Considering that a good-but-not-great Duke team last year lost its two best players and over half its points, it is reasonable to conclude that the new guys must play a strong role for Duke to improve over 2014. But there doesn't seem, to me at least, any reason that our best returning players need to fade into the background. Au contraire....

Why can't we be like Kentucky in 2012...Freshmen Anthony Davis (Jahili), Michael-Kidd Gilchrest (Winslow) and Marquis Teague (Jones) gel with vets Terrence Jones (Rasheed), Doron Lamb (Cook) and Darius Miller (Amile) to form a title team. That's one instance where I'd be happy to follow a Kentucky blueprint.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
10-02-2014, 09:45 AM
With the revised NCAA rules about coach "offseason" access, these guys have actually been participating in structured workouts for a long time already. They aren't official practices, but the coaches have seen plenty, enough for Capel to be making pretty bold statements about Jones as a starter. Besides, freshmen playing huge roles on title teams is a pretty current blueprint...

Sure, it's a conceivable scenario. And yes, all the news from our coaches and people "in the know" make them sound like they are as advertised. I'm just very leery of absolutes that posit the only path to success requires us to ride the backs of three 18 year old kids when we have some pretty good players returning.

Don't get me wrong, I hope our freshmen come in and set the world on fire and point us towards our next national championship. But, I also hope Quinn comes alive and lives up to the potential we all see flashes of, I hope MP3 finds his feet, I hope Sheed channels his fitness into some great motivated leadership moments, I hope Matt Jones finds his stroke and Semi discovers a great role for himself, and that our team remembers how to play defense. Any of these other listed factors *might* lead us to a championship, even if our three christened saviors fall short of expectations.

MCFinARL
10-02-2014, 09:47 AM
Maybe just not the starter at PG?

"Capel said Jones will be the starter, but that Cook could be one of Duke’s best shooters. And with the No. 1 recruit in the country, center Jahlil Okafor, drawing defenses to the paint, there will be open shots on the perimeter."

Read more here: http://www.newsobserver.com/2014/10/01/4199168_confidence-in-himself-allows-quinn.html?sp=/99/103/119/269/&rh=1#storylink=cpy

Yes, this echoes what Coach K said at his season-end press conference last year, when he noted that Jones was a natural leader already, and that Quinn might need more opportunities to shoot (or words to that effect). I think it is quite possible we will see a starting lineup with both Jones and Cook--at least that we will see that starting lineup tried out. What that means for Sulaimon is another question, one I can't answer.

It might actually make for a dynamic offense to have, essentially, a backup point guard on the court as a shooting guard--kind of a two-headed monster. If defenses key on Jones, he gets the ball to Cook, who can pass, shoot or drive.

Billy Dat
10-02-2014, 10:09 AM
Sure, it's a conceivable scenario. And yes, all the news from our coaches and people "in the know" make them sound like they are as advertised. I'm just very leery of absolutes that posit the only path to success requires us to ride the backs of three 18 year old kids when we have some pretty good players returning.

Don't get me wrong, I hope our freshmen come in and set the world on fire and point us towards our next national championship. But, I also hope Quinn comes alive and lives up to the potential we all see flashes of, I hope MP3 finds his feet, I hope Sheed channels his fitness into some great motivated leadership moments, I hope Matt Jones finds his stroke and Semi discovers a great role for himself, and that our team remembers how to play defense. Any of these other listed factors *might* lead us to a championship, even if our three christened saviors fall short of expectations.

I hear you, I think maybe time has transformed me into a pessimist when it comes to upperclassmen showing new tricks. But, the miracle of second-half-of-senior-year Senior Brian Zoubek is the not so distance past. Obviously, Semi and Matt Jones haven't gotten the game reps, and Marshall showed us a little something in his brief stretches.


Yes, this echoes what Coach K said at his season-end press conference last year, when he noted that Jones was a natural leader already, and that Quinn might need more opportunities to shoot (or words to that effect). I think it is quite possible we will see a starting lineup with both Jones and Cook--at least that we will see that starting lineup tried out. What that means for Sulaimon is another question, one I can't answer.

It might actually make for a dynamic offense to have, essentially, a backup point guard on the court as a shooting guard--kind of a two-headed monster. If defenses key on Jones, he gets the ball to Cook, who can pass, shoot or drive.

It will be really interesting to move Quinn off the ball and see if he can light it up. I worry a bit that the focus on scoring will mean he becomes too high usage, but we'll see.

I think we need a separate thread that postulates how the offense is going to change so that Big Jah is getting his touches...never s strength of the modern K approach. Let's dust off Kedsy and tommy's 2013-14 analysis of our possessions that included post entries....let's dig up OU footage of how Capel used Blake Griffin since Capel has started to compare the two of them to the media.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
10-02-2014, 10:40 AM
I think we need a separate thread that postulates how the offense is going to change so that Big Jah is getting his touches...never s strength of the modern K approach. Let's dust off Kedsy and tommy's 2013-14 analysis of our possessions that included post entries....let's dig up OU footage of how Capel used Blake Griffin since Capel has started to compare the two of them to the media.

I'm admittedly unfamiliar with what his post style is like. I would be over the moon to see some play like Kyrie and MP2 had going for a short while - lobs next to the rim where the big guy just has to do what he does best. Certainly, if Capel is referencing Griffin, that indicates he might know exactly what to do with a ball lobbed in his direction.

kAzE
10-02-2014, 10:47 AM
Does anyone actually believe that Sulaimon will not start? I would be shocked if Sulaimon didn't start in the beginning of the season, at the start of ACC play, and at the end of ACC play.

Sulaimon is a) our best 3pt shooter (easily), b) our only proven player who can get to the rim with relative ease, c) a decent defender. There is zero doubt in my mind that Sulaimon starts and plays arguably the most minutes on the team.

I would change your statement to: 2. Pick 2 out of these 3 to be starters: Cook/T. Jones/Winslow

I think it's definitely closer than you make it out to be . . . after all, Sulaimon came off the bench for a good portion of last year when it was all but assumed that he was going to be the starter.

a) I'd hesitate to call him "easily the best 3pt shooter" on the team. He could be, but I think he and Cook are about even (Cook shoots more shots off the dribble, which contributes to his lower percentages). Sulaimon shot a nice percentage last season, but I don't know if he can shoot over 40% again this year, especially with more defensive attention. He actually shot a lower FG% overall than from 3 (40.2% vs 41.0%), and I'd expect those numbers to regress towards his career averages this season. He's good, but Cook is a good shooter too, and we should have a few guys coming off the bench who can knock down shots. Let's not get carried away, Sulaimon is no JJ.

b) Yes, he can get in the paint, but can he finish when he gets there? I'd certainly expect him to do MUCH better inside the 3 pt arc, though, he was pretty bad at finishing inside last year. This is why I'm a bit concerned that he doesn't appear to have spent much time doing weight training, especially with his upper body.

c) I think he will start, but I think it's far from a certainty. I'll concede that he's the most likely of the 4 to start, but I don't think he's going to play THAT many minutes, just because we should be rotating the 3 guards in and out pretty frequently. However, I would expect him to get more minutes than Cook or Jones. I actually suspect Winslow will lead the team in minutes. That's just my hunch.

I don't mean to pile on Sulaimon, I genuinely like him. He's one of our best players, but I just don't think he's Nolan Smith. Smith had a meteoric rise starting in his junior year, and it's totally unfair to expect that of Sulaimon, who I think will be improved, but not at Smith's pace. Also, he's not nearly as good a defender as Smith, and doesn't have the awesome mid range game Smith had, at least not yet. Nolan was money on that free throw line jumper off the dribble and that floater in the lane. One thing I will give Rasheed is that he's actually a better passer than Nolan, which gives me hope that he can make it as a backup point guard eventually in the NBA. His ability to drive and dish is probably superior to Quinn Cook's, although he's not as good a ball handler.

flyingdutchdevil
10-02-2014, 11:07 AM
I think it's definitely closer than you make it out to be . . . after all, Sulaimon came off the bench for a good portion of last year when it was all but assumed that he was going to be the starter.

a) I'd hesitate to call him "easily the best 3pt shooter" on the team. He could be, but I think he and Cook are about even (Cook shoots more shots off the dribble, which contributes to his lower percentages). Sulaimon shot a nice percentage last season, but I don't know if he can shoot over 40% again this year, especially with more defensive attention. He actually shot a lower FG% overall than from 3 (40.2% vs 41.0%), and I'd expect those numbers to regress towards his career averages this season. He's good, but Cook is a good shooter too, and we should have a few guys coming off the bench who can knock down shots. Let's not get carried away, Sulaimon is no JJ.

No one is JJ. That dude could shoot. But Sulaimon is a smart 3pt shooter, and that generally leads to plenty of 3s. With Okafor - the most polished offensive big since Oden - our guards will see a lot of shots. Not sure why you think Sulaimon will have a lower percentage despite the potential for being even more open as teams double team the Oak. Sulaimon may not hit 40% again, but I'd be shocked if he wasn't in the top 2 in attempts and makes. As Kedsy has pointed out plenty, this team lacks 3pt shooting. Sulaimon and Cook are arguably the only players to be given the green light on 3pt shooting, and I expect Sulaimon to continue to be smart about taking these shots.


b) Yes, he can get in the paint, but can he finish when he gets there? I'd certainly expect him to do MUCH better inside the 3 pt arc, though, he was pretty bad at finishing inside last year. This is why I'm a bit concerned that he doesn't appear to have spent much time doing weight training, especially with his upper body.

Please don't base this on one picture. It's like when DBR was ecstatic that Cook played amazing defense in the Blue-White game. And we all know how that panned out. I'm sure Sulaimon has taken the correct steps to doing to hit body what needs to be done. Smith didn't get "huge" and he became better at finishing as his career progressed. I suspect that Sulaimon has worked hard on this aspect of his game as it's one that was overly criticized last year.


c) I think he will start, but I think it's far from a certainty. I'll concede that he's the most likely of the 4 to start, but I don't think he's going to play THAT many minutes, just because we should be rotating the 3 guards in and out pretty frequently. However, I would expect him to get more minutes than Cook or Jones. I actually suspect Winslow will lead the team in minutes. That's just my hunch.

Assuming each player has a 75% chance of starting, those are great odds. Given that you think Sulaimon has the best chance, I'd assume his chances of starting are probably 85-95%. Those are pretty good, and good enough for me to put him in as a shoo-in.


I don't mean to pile on Sulaimon, I genuinely like him. He's one of our best players, but I just don't think he's Nolan Smith. Smith had a meteoric rise starting in his junior year, and it's totally unfair to expect that of Sulaimon, who I think will be improved, but not at Smith's pace. Also, he's not nearly as good a defender as Smith, and doesn't have the awesome mid range game Smith had, at least not yet. Nolan was money on that free throw line jumper off the dribble and that floater in the lane. One thing I will give Rasheed is that he's actually a better passer than Nolan, which gives me hope that he can make it as a backup point guard eventually in the NBA. His ability to drive and dish is probably superior to Quinn Cook's, although he's not as good a ball handler.

I agree that Sulaimon isn't Nolan Smith, but it's important to note that Sulaimon is arguably our most talented returning player. Given that we have Quinn, Amile, and MP3 as our returning players, that's not saying nothing. Sulaimon had a great freshman year and a similar sophomore year in terms of productivity. I expect him to improve, given his increase in maturity, more responsibility, and up-and-down year last year.

For me, Sulaimon is the key to our season, because his skillset is unique to this group.

Billy Dat
10-02-2014, 11:12 AM
I don't mean to pile on Sulaimon, I genuinely like him. He's one of our best players, but I just don't think he's Nolan Smith. Smith had a meteoric rise starting in his junior year, and it's totally unfair to expect that of Sulaimon, who I think will be improved, but not at Smith's pace. Also, he's not nearly as good a defender as Smith, and doesn't have the awesome mid range game Smith had, at least not yet. Nolan was money on that free throw line jumper off the dribble and that floater in the lane. One thing I will give Rasheed is that he's actually a better passer than Nolan, which gives me hope that he can make it as a backup point guard eventually in the NBA. His ability to drive and dish is probably superior to Quinn Cook's, although he's not as good a ball handler.

I'll continue to pile the expectations on Jones when I say that I hope he is the kind of team-runner that Jon Scheyer turned out to be, a guy who has an advanced sense of how the whole machine needs to operate to hit peak efficiency. Since Jon left, we haven't really had a point guard like that...Kyrie, Nolan, Austin and Quinn are stronger scorers than team runners, and Jones' rep is the opposite. I think his play can potentially make Rasheed look a lot better - make everyone look better - the same way Jon's play helped make that title team run. It IS a lot to ask of a freshman, but the staff doesn't seem to be shying away from placing such expectations on him.

kAzE
10-02-2014, 11:27 AM
I agree that Sulaimon isn't Nolan Smith, but it's important to note that Sulaimon is arguably our most talented returning player. Given that we have Quinn, Amile, and MP3 as our returning players, that's not saying nothing. Sulaimon had a great freshman year and a similar sophomore year in terms of productivity. I expect him to improve, given his increase in maturity, more responsibility, and up-and-down year last year.

For me, Sulaimon is the key to our season, because his skillset is unique to this group.

I think this is where we disagree. I believe Jefferson is the most talented returning player. I've just got a feeling that he's going to blow people away this year. Amile Jefferson: All ACC. You heard it here first.

Troublemaker
10-02-2014, 11:37 AM
Major props to Quinn. Reading these pre-season articles, it seems like Tyus is going to be given the ball this season. Nonetheless, Quinn has earned a lot of praise from coaches and Tyus himself for how Quinn has conducted himself. He's been a leader, listened to the coaches about ignoring bad influences that could lead to jealousy, and taken Tyus under his wing.

If we're going to continue to bring in very talented freshmen, situations like these will continue to arise where a talented freshman might supplant a senior from his preferred role -- in this case, starting point guard. If those seniors in the future comport themselves like Quinn has this season, we'll be a very lucky and successful program. So props to Quinn for setting a great example.

DukieInBrasil
10-02-2014, 12:06 PM
As far as 3FG% and 3FG shooting go, Quinn is mos def one of our best, despite what his 37% from last year might indicate. As has been pointed out and anguished over quite a bit, Quinn had a really bad habit of pounding the ball into the floor and hoisting up truly terrible 3s. However, when he had a catch-and-shoot opportunity he was really quite good. This year, i'm quite sure that both Quinn and Tyus will be playing together quite a bit, which probably means Quinn will play off the ball while on the floor with Tyus. Playing off the ball with a good PG is the perfect recipe for Quinn to get catch and shoot 3 opportunities, which he ought to be able to hit at a high clip. It also means a drop in the opportunities for Quinn to jack up boneheaded shots. Even when playing without Tyus, Okafor will (hopefully) be in the paint meaning that Quinn may very well drive the lane because there will be someone there who knows what to do with an orange-ish round thing near the hoop. These three factors conspire to increase Quinn's 3FG% by A) increasing Quinn's catch-and-shoot 3pt attempts B) reducing the aimless-dribbling-jack-up-3s by having the ball in a PGs hands and C) reducing said bad 3s by giving Quinn (as lead PG) a good offensive option inside.

I sure hope it pans out that way, b/c it would be very useful to have 2 guards who can shoot somewhere north of 40% from 3. Sulaimon shot 41% last year, and Quinn nearly shot 40% as a So. (>39%), so it seems reasonable to me that both could shoot >40% this year if the nexus between Tyus Junes and Okafor pans out, meaning that defenses are going to have to dedicate more effort to defending the post this year than last, as well as figure out a way to prevent Jones from driving, which usually creates quite a few good looks from 3 of the catch-and-shoot variety.

So Tyus comes in with a rep as a mediocre 3pt shooter, so if he shoots 3s at ~33% that would bode well. If Matt Jones can raise his 3pt% above freezing (~33%) that would also be a big boost. So that leaves Duke with 3 other dudes who may shoot 3balls this year. Semi shot well last year in limited fashion (4-7), so maybe he'll get some chances this year: so let's dream that he shoots 8-20 (40%) from 3, again a beneficial boost. Justise comes in with a rather enigmatic reputation, some really disparage his 3pt shooting while others point out that with Team USA he shot quite well from 3, so if he shoots better than 35% from 3, i'll take that as a bonus. Grayson Allen is also an unknown quantity to me, at least wrt 3pt shooting, and as the presumptive 10th man on this year's team i doubt his 3pt shooting will have much impact on games.

So to my eye, that leaves 6 guys whose 3pt shooting may very well impact games this year, and since 4 of those guys are either unknown quantities at the college level, or difficult to predict due to Fr. to So. transitions, this is one of the areas that has me kinda anxious about this team. Historically, Duke has relied on the 3pt shot over the years, and if this year's team is to follow that model, at least 2 of the 4 (or 5) "unknown" quantity guys are going to have to step up and shoot pretty well. Maybe even 3 of those 4 or 5. Alternatively, Duke may buck its own trend and look more to the post and mid-range for its offense this year, and for that to work at least 2 of the 4 post players (Oak, MP3, Amile and Justise) will need to be creative offensive players. It is also possible that any one, or several, of Rasheed, Quinn, Tyus, Justise or Matt will become really good at making open looks inside the arc.

Can it please be November already?

DukieTiger
10-02-2014, 12:14 PM
Here's the thing with the whole, "Sheed is no Nolan Smith" thing. While their style of play is similar, I think we're comparing apples-to-oranges as far as their career trajectory. I think we're short-changing Sheed's career so far and overstating Nolan's Junior jump based on a couple of lackluster years. Sheed doesn't need to take a Nolan-esque leap to reach Nolan-esque levels this year.




Nolan Frosh
Sheed Frosh
Nolan Soph
Sheed Soph
Nolan's Jr. Jump


%Min
36.6
72.9
49.4
62.0
84.3


ORtg
101.7
110.3
104.7
117.0
114.2


%Poss
20.8
19.9
20.7
20.1
23.8


eFG%
54.0
50.0
48.5
49.0
49.6


ARate
15.9
12.1
15.2
17.0
17.7


TO Rate
25.3
12.6
20.8
13.0
12.8


Stl%
1.9
1.5
2.5
1.9
2.0


FT Rate
34.7
35.9
31.7
50.8
29.3


2fg%
.516
.461
.467
.397
.460


3fg%
.386
.371
.346
.410
.392



I'm going to argue that Nolan's Junior jump corresponded with 2 things (of course, understanding that an underlying factor was Nolan's clearly more aggressive, assertive, confident mindset. However, that is not a requisite for every player's improvement. Sheed has a different personality from Nolan.)

1) Increased opportunity. Nolan's playtime skyrocketed and his usage went up as he was on a team with 3 other guards. He earned this time, but he also was thrust into a situation of need and responded well to it. Sheed won't have these circumstances, but I think he could see a jump in minutes- even getting back to his freshman levels would increase his productivity.

2) Increased efficiency. Knowing the kind of jump Nolan made, you'd expect the numbers to leap out at you in this area, and they kind of do. That said, I'd attribute Nolan's offensive improvement to two things:

a) Steady improvement that came with hard work and maturation.

b) Increased confidence, toughness mostly reflected in taking care of the ball. Check out the comparison of Nolan's TO% from his fr/so years to his Junior year.

Now this may be unpopular but to me, Sheed's numbers already look similar to Junior Nolan's. It won't take a huge leap for Rasheed to become a really, really good player. For Nolan, it was about improving on his weaknesses and growing in confidence and aggression. There's no reason Rasheed can't do that. If there's one weak area, a clear area where Nolan is superior, it would be in making 2pt baskets. But something tells me that playing with a true big who is a threat on the weakside (as Mason was) will really help Sheed in his dribble penetration. I think we'll see Sheed's efficiency inside the 3-pt arc improve. Nolan clearly has the midrange element that Rasheed doesn't, but Sheed makes up for it in other areas, such as passing off the dribble and getting to the 3pt line.

I'm not saying that Rasheed Sulaimon is going to have a Nolan Smith-like year. Nolan was such an emotional leader, a charismatic guy who really stepped up in ways that KenPom can't measure. It's unfair to expect Sheed to be that guy. However, through steady maturation, he can turn into a similarly effective player as Nolan was in the second half of his career. In fact, he HAS been that so far in his career, and he simply needs to keep improving. My opinion is simply that dismissing the possibility that Sheed could be as good as Nolan is, to this point, unwarranted.

flyingdutchdevil
10-02-2014, 01:08 PM
Major props to Quinn. Reading these pre-season articles, it seems like Tyus is going to be given the ball this season. Nonetheless, Quinn has earned a lot of praise from coaches and Tyus himself for how Quinn has conducted himself. He's been a leader, listened to the coaches about ignoring bad influences that could lead to jealousy, and taken Tyus under his wing.

If we're going to continue to bring in very talented freshmen, situations like these will continue to arise where a talented freshman might supplant a senior from his preferred role -- in this case, starting point guard. If those seniors in the future comport themselves like Quinn has this season, we'll be a very lucky and successful program. So props to Quinn for setting a great example.

I agree completely. The beauty of this situation is that PG will never be a major concern for us this year. Tyus seems to be the quintessential PG, but he's a freshman and will a) learn the ropes and b) foul a lot. If Tyus isn't producing for a given game, enter Quinn.

I really love Quinn's game. He eased on the hero-ball (my major Quinn pet peeve) and seemed to hold his emotions in check. He's a really good 3pt shooter, a very good passer, a smart player, great at steals, and decent at getting to the rim. He's not a good finisher at the rim and his D is pretty bad. Hopefully he's really worked on these aspects of the game.

Go Quinn!

flyingdutchdevil
10-02-2014, 01:10 PM
I think this is where we disagree. I believe Jefferson is the most talented returning player. I've just got a feeling that he's going to blow people away this year. Amile Jefferson: All ACC. You heard it here first.

Friendly wager: If Jefferson is a higher All-ACC than Sulaimon, I will change my profile pic to whatever you want for 6 months. If Sulaimon is a higher All-ACC than Jefferson, you change your profile pic to the Celtics logo for 6 months. Deal?

Troublemaker
10-02-2014, 01:15 PM
It should be noted that Quinn fully expects to be starting aside Tyus.

From here (http://www.wralsportsfan.com/duke-welcomes-highly-touted-freshmen-class/14035631/):

“We’re going to try to make each other better,” said Cook. “We want to play together; many teams have had two point guards in the starting lineup and won the national championship in the past.”

From here (http://www.newsobserver.com/2014/10/01/4199168/confidence-in-himself-allows-quinn.html?sp=/99/103/):

“When he first committed, we were winning, so everything was good,” Cook said of Tyus Jones, the consensus top point guard recruit and Duke freshman. “But then when we started losing, it was, ‘Oh, Jones is coming next year, don’t worry, Cook is to the bench.’ ”

Also, Coach Capel on the duo's relationship:

“You always wonder, is it going to happen the way we think it’s going to happen? Because human nature, man,” Capel said of the Cook-Jones dynamic with a laugh. “But it’s been great. And hopefully it continues to be great.”

Based on his captaincy and the pre-season praise he's received, I think Quinn will get his wish and start alongside Tyus.

Reading the preseason tea leaves (always a tricky proposition and obviously subject to change as more info rolls in), I think Tyus, Quinn, Amile, and Jahlil will start. Not sure about the 5th starter.

Kedsy
10-02-2014, 02:21 PM
Here's the thing with the whole, "Sheed is no Nolan Smith" thing. While their style of play is similar, I think we're comparing apples-to-oranges as far as their career trajectory. I think we're short-changing Sheed's career so far and overstating Nolan's Junior jump based on a couple of lackluster years. Sheed doesn't need to take a Nolan-esque leap to reach Nolan-esque levels this year.




Nolan Frosh
Sheed Frosh
Nolan Soph
Sheed Soph
Nolan's Jr. Jump


%Min
36.6
72.9
49.4
62.0
84.3


ORtg
101.7
110.3
104.7
117.0
114.2


%Poss
20.8
19.9
20.7
20.1
23.8


eFG%
54.0
50.0
48.5
49.0
49.6


ARate
15.9
12.1
15.2
17.0
17.7


TO Rate
25.3
12.6
20.8
13.0
12.8


Stl%
1.9
1.5
2.5
1.9
2.0


FT Rate
34.7
35.9
31.7
50.8
29.3


2fg%
.516
.461
.467
.397
.460


3fg%
.386
.371
.346
.410
.392



I'm going to argue that Nolan's Junior jump corresponded with 2 things (of course, understanding that an underlying factor was Nolan's clearly more aggressive, assertive, confident mindset. However, that is not a requisite for every player's improvement. Sheed has a different personality from Nolan.)

1) Increased opportunity. Nolan's playtime skyrocketed and his usage went up as he was on a team with 3 other guards. He earned this time, but he also was thrust into a situation of need and responded well to it. Sheed won't have these circumstances, but I think he could see a jump in minutes- even getting back to his freshman levels would increase his productivity.

2) Increased efficiency. Knowing the kind of jump Nolan made, you'd expect the numbers to leap out at you in this area, and they kind of do. That said, I'd attribute Nolan's offensive improvement to two things:

a) Steady improvement that came with hard work and maturation.

b) Increased confidence, toughness mostly reflected in taking care of the ball. Check out the comparison of Nolan's TO% from his fr/so years to his Junior year.

Now this may be unpopular but to me, Sheed's numbers already look similar to Junior Nolan's. It won't take a huge leap for Rasheed to become a really, really good player. For Nolan, it was about improving on his weaknesses and growing in confidence and aggression. There's no reason Rasheed can't do that. If there's one weak area, a clear area where Nolan is superior, it would be in making 2pt baskets. But something tells me that playing with a true big who is a threat on the weakside (as Mason was) will really help Sheed in his dribble penetration. I think we'll see Sheed's efficiency inside the 3-pt arc improve. Nolan clearly has the midrange element that Rasheed doesn't, but Sheed makes up for it in other areas, such as passing off the dribble and getting to the 3pt line.

I'm not saying that Rasheed Sulaimon is going to have a Nolan Smith-like year. Nolan was such an emotional leader, a charismatic guy who really stepped up in ways that KenPom can't measure. It's unfair to expect Sheed to be that guy. However, through steady maturation, he can turn into a similarly effective player as Nolan was in the second half of his career. In fact, he HAS been that so far in his career, and he simply needs to keep improving. My opinion is simply that dismissing the possibility that Sheed could be as good as Nolan is, to this point, unwarranted.

This is a really good point. I hadn't realized how statistically similar sophomore Rasheed was to junior Nolan. In part I guess it's because Nolan kept growing -- he didn't become a true statistical beast until his senior year, but that's our last memory of him.

And it even looks better for Rasheed if you add the fact that his defensive rebounding so far in his career (11.0 DRB% as a freshman; 9.2 DRB% as a sophomore) is way better than Nolan's 5.8 DRB% as a junior.

That said, there were a few areas where junior Nolan dominated sophomore Rasheed that are not contained in your analysis. First, while you correctly pointed out that Rasheed got to the line a lot more than Nolan, Nolan took and made a ton more two-point shots than Rasheed, and at a much higher efficiency: sophomore Rasheed made 2.6 two-point shots per 40 minutes out of 6.5 attempts per 40 (39.7%); while junior Nolan made 5.3 twos per 40 minutes out of 11.6 attempts per 40 (46.2%). Presumably those extra twos led to Nolan's usage rate (25.2%) being so much higher than Rasheed's (20.3%). Second, while you correctly pointed out Rasheed's better oRtg, junior Nolan had a much better PER (20.4 to 16.6), and a much better win shares per 40 (.198 to .148). Plus Nolan's defense was significantly better.

So I don't believe sophomore Rasheed was as good as junior Nolan, but thanks for pointing out that the gap between them is much closer than I had thought.

superdave
10-02-2014, 02:33 PM
It should be noted that Quinn fully expects to be starting aside Tyus.

From here (http://www.wralsportsfan.com/duke-welcomes-highly-touted-freshmen-class/14035631/):

“We’re going to try to make each other better,” said Cook. “We want to play together; many teams have had two point guards in the starting lineup and won the national championship in the past.”

From here (http://www.newsobserver.com/2014/10/01/4199168/confidence-in-himself-allows-quinn.html?sp=/99/103/):

“When he first committed, we were winning, so everything was good,” Cook said of Tyus Jones, the consensus top point guard recruit and Duke freshman. “But then when we started losing, it was, ‘Oh, Jones is coming next year, don’t worry, Cook is to the bench.’ ”

Also, Coach Capel on the duo's relationship:

“You always wonder, is it going to happen the way we think it’s going to happen? Because human nature, man,” Capel said of the Cook-Jones dynamic with a laugh. “But it’s been great. And hopefully it continues to be great.”

Based on his captaincy and the pre-season praise he's received, I think Quinn will get his wish and start alongside Tyus.

Reading the preseason tea leaves (always a tricky proposition and obviously subject to change as more info rolls in), I think Tyus, Quinn, Amile, and Jahlil will start. Not sure about the 5th starter.

My recollection is that Quinn shot better from deep in rhythm, on catch-and-shoot opportunities, off broken plays, especially when he took no more than one dribble. I believe he will have many such opportunities this season on kickouts from the post or tipped-out offensive rebounds. He got himself in trouble when he rushed to get a shot up off the dribble or played with blinders.

If Quinn can let Tyus create plays and learn to be more opportunistic, he will have a very nice senior season. I think Quinn clears 40% from 3-land and plays an equally significant role as compared to Sulaimon and Jones.

The more interesting question to me (this backcourt will score a lot) is how Tyus and Quinn work defensively. I think having the two guys play in the 25-28 minute range will keep them both focused defensively.

Clay Feet POF
10-02-2014, 02:52 PM
I'll continue to pile the expectations on Jones when I say that I hope he is the kind of team-runner that Jon Scheyer turned out to be, a guy who has an advanced sense of how the whole machine needs to operate to hit peak efficiency. Since Jon left, we haven't really had a point guard like that...Kyrie, Nolan, Austin and Quinn are stronger scorers than team runners, and Jones' rep is the opposite. I think his play can potentially make Rasheed look a lot better - make everyone look better - the same way Jon's play helped make that title team run. It IS a lot to ask of a freshman, but the staff doesn't seem to be shying away from placing such expectations on him.

Completely agree. Tyus' long playing experience with Okafor has to give him a leg up on the other guards (At least coming out of the Gate). I also really think he will help Cook to have his best year at Duke..

Duvall
10-02-2014, 03:02 PM
Friendly wager: If Jefferson is a higher All-ACC than Sulaimon, I will change my profile pic to whatever you want for 6 months. If Sulaimon is a higher All-ACC than Jefferson, you change your profile pic to the Celtics logo for 6 months. Deal?

Given the competition for playing time each faces this seems like a sucker bet. Not that both won't play a lot.

DukieTiger
10-02-2014, 03:13 PM
This is a really good point. I hadn't realized how statistically similar sophomore Rasheed was to junior Nolan. In part I guess it's because Nolan kept growing -- he didn't become a true statistical beast until his senior year, but that's our last memory of him.

And it even looks better for Rasheed if you add the fact that his defensive rebounding so far in his career (11.0 DRB% as a freshman; 9.2 DRB% as a sophomore) is way better than Nolan's 5.8 DRB% as a junior.

That said, there were a few areas where junior Nolan dominated sophomore Rasheed that are not contained in your analysis. First, while you correctly pointed out that Rasheed got to the line a lot more than Nolan, Nolan took and made a ton more two-point shots than Rasheed, and at a much higher efficiency: sophomore Rasheed made 2.6 two-point shots per 40 minutes out of 6.5 attempts per 40 (39.7%); while junior Nolan made 5.3 twos per 40 minutes out of 11.6 attempts per 40 (46.2%). Presumably those extra twos led to Nolan's usage rate (25.2%) being so much higher than Rasheed's (20.3%). Second, while you correctly pointed out Rasheed's better oRtg, junior Nolan had a much better PER (20.4 to 16.6), and a much better win shares per 40 (.198 to .148). Plus Nolan's defense was significantly better.

So I don't believe sophomore Rasheed was as good as junior Nolan, but thanks for pointing out that the gap between them is much closer than I had thought.

Absolutely there's a gap. What encourages me though is that it wouldn't require such an astronomical leap for Rasheed to reach Nolan levels as a Jr (Senior, as you say, is a different story).

No doubt Nolan took and made way more 2pt shots than Rasheed. I'm pretty blown away as to how many shots Nolan took in general that year. As I mentioned, that is Sheed's big area of improvement for this year, imo- 2fg%. He probably won't get the usage Nolan did, because Duke will put 5 guys on the floor who can score, which wasn't the case for Nolan. Even in this area though, I think Rasheed has shown flashes that suggest he could make a leap. He shot much better as a freshman (in fact, basically equivalent to Junior Nolan- just on half the shots). A couple of thoughts here:

1) I think Rasheed will finish more effectively around the rim with an Okafor/Plumlee type of player. Didn't have that last year. Sheed is great at driving and dumping the ball down, and that threat will help him finish more effectively.
2) My memory says that Rasheed scored a lot of his 2's as a freshman pushing the ball on the fast break. There were 2 or 3 guys who kind of took over that role from him last year. This year, I could see a better fit for his skill set in the open court.

As for PER, Win Shares and defense- again, hopefully this is where simple maturity will help Rasheed improve. I'm not really familiar with PER or win shares, so I don't know exactly what they measure. Nolan became a huge part of that 2010 team in an intangible way- he became it's heart and soul in many ways. Doubtful that Rasheed or anyone else becomes that.

I do know that Rasheed has shown flashes as a defender, similarly to Nolan. I think a lot will depend on what position RS is asked to play this year.

All of this to say, I guess I'm leaning more toward the optimistic end of the spectrum with Sulaimon. I'm expecting an All-ACC caliber season from him. I don't know that he will be named captain, but I wouldn't bet against it. I know that other players are getting more attention, but RS is probably Duke's most versatile player and in some ways the most proven. It's great to have him and be confident that he's going to be a big part of the team. While the freshman class will be great, Duke has a nucleus of QC, Amile, Rasheed that are growing in leadership, have Elite Eight experience, have learned the Duke way, and are very talented in their own right.

It's an exciting year!

DukieTiger
10-02-2014, 03:19 PM
My recollection is that Quinn shot better from deep in rhythm, on catch-and-shoot opportunities, off broken plays, especially when he took no more than one dribble. I believe he will have many such opportunities this season on kickouts from the post or tipped-out offensive rebounds. He got himself in trouble when he rushed to get a shot up off the dribble or played with blinders.

If Quinn can let Tyus create plays and learn to be more opportunistic, he will have a very nice senior season. I think Quinn clears 40% from 3-land and plays an equally significant role as compared to Sulaimon and Jones.

The more interesting question to me (this backcourt will score a lot) is how Tyus and Quinn work defensively. I think having the two guys play in the 25-28 minute range will keep them both focused defensively.

Duke made it work two years ago with Seth and Quinn, and while it wasn't a banner defensive year- they performed well enough to be considered a title contender much of the year against that brutal schedule. They had a rim protector (Mason) and an excellent help-defender (Ryan) as well as Rasheed who defended well as a freshman.

I could definitely see similarities to this year. There are multiple guys to put on the wing who are above-average defenders (Sheed, Justise, MJones). I think Amile will be a very good help-defender, a very good hedger, and the communicator on defense like RKelly was. He might not be the shot-blocking threat, but those long arms and his quickness should be effective. Hopefully, Jahlil will protect the rim effectively- maybe not like Mason did, but it can't be worse than last year! When you have those positions effectively filled, I think you can get away with two smaller guards, even if they're not the greatest on defense.

Kedsy
10-02-2014, 03:35 PM
As for PER, Win Shares and defense- again, hopefully this is where simple maturity will help Rasheed improve. I'm not really familiar with PER or win shares, so I don't know exactly what they measure.

If you're interested, here are basketball reference's links explaining PER (http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/per.html) and win shares (http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/ws.html). They each have their flaws (as does oRtg and many other advanced stats), but they're pretty good if used in context, especially comparing players with similar roles.

Billy Dat
10-02-2014, 03:45 PM
Gary Parrish @GaryParrishCBS · 6m 6 minutes ago
Had a long conversation yesterday with @BigJah15. Impressive guy. And note to NBA scouts: He’s totally reshaped his body. Looks terrific.

Gary Parrish @GaryParrishCBS · 7m 7 minutes ago
Also: The consensus after early workouts at Duke is that he’s been as good, if not better, than advertised. Everybody’s really high on him.

Kedsy
10-02-2014, 03:59 PM
Duke made it work two years ago with Seth and Quinn, and while it wasn't a banner defensive year- they performed well enough to be considered a title contender much of the year against that brutal schedule. They had a rim protector (Mason) and an excellent help-defender (Ryan) as well as Rasheed who defended well as a freshman.

I could definitely see similarities to this year. There are multiple guys to put on the wing who are above-average defenders (Sheed, Justise, MJones). I think Amile will be a very good help-defender, a very good hedger, and the communicator on defense like RKelly was. He might not be the shot-blocking threat, but those long arms and his quickness should be effective. Hopefully, Jahlil will protect the rim effectively- maybe not like Mason did, but it can't be worse than last year! When you have those positions effectively filled, I think you can get away with two smaller guards, even if they're not the greatest on defense.

Mason's block percentage was only so-so (14th in the ACC among qualifiers). I realize blocked shots does not entirely equate to "rim protection," but either way I don't think he set the bar so high that we can't expect Jahlil to match Mason's rim protection. What Mason was very good at in 2012-13 was defensive rebounding percentage (3rd in ACC). That's where Jahlil may have to step up to equal Mason on the defensive end.

But you're right that senior Quinn/freshman Tyus shouldn't be significantly worse defensively than senior Seth/sophomore Quinn. And the combination of junior Rasheed/freshman Justise should be as good or better than freshman Rasheed/junior Tyler -- hopefully a lot better, if the reports we've gotten about Justise Winslow's defensive abilities are accurate.

To me, the real key is how close Amile can come to replicating Ryan Kelly's defense. Ryan was an exceptional and very underrated defender -- at the time of his injury that season, Pomeroy had Duke's defense rated 4th in the country. When he returned, we'd dropped down to 24th. I have high hopes for Amile, but I don't know if he can bring everything Ryan brought to our defense in 2013.

DukieTiger
10-02-2014, 04:10 PM
Mason's block percentage was only so-so (14th in the ACC among qualifiers). I realize blocked shots does not entirely equate to "rim protection," but either way I don't think he set the bar so high that we can't expect Jahlil to match Mason's rim protection. What Mason was very good at in 2012-13 was defensive rebounding percentage (3rd in ACC). That's where Jahlil may have to step up to equal Mason on the defensive end.

But you're right that senior Quinn/freshman Tyus shouldn't be significantly worse defensively than senior Seth/sophomore Quinn. And the combination of junior Rasheed/freshman Justise should be as good or better than freshman Rasheed/junior Tyler -- hopefully a lot better, if the reports we've gotten about Justise Winslow's defensive abilities are accurate.

To me, the real key is how close Amile can come to replicating Ryan Kelly's defense. Ryan was an exceptional and very underrated defender -- at the time of his injury that season, Pomeroy had Duke's defense rated 4th in the country. When he returned, we'd dropped down to 24th. I have high hopes for Amile, but I don't know if he can bring everything Ryan brought to our defense in 2013.

Definitely, definitely agree with the bolded above. Ryan was an amazingly underrated defender (and player) - which is why he's playing with the Lakers now.* It's going to be tough for Amile to duplicate that. But I do think that Ryan and Amile bring a dynamic that is helpful for Duke's style of defense- a strong help defender at the 4 who is mobile enough to defend collegiate stretch 4's. Teams love to spread the floor against Duke, so this is a key skill.

*As an aside, it amazes me that some look back at that 2009-2010 team and think it didn't have all that much talent. Singler, Plumlee, Plumlee, Kelly are all going to be in the NBA for a while; Lance and Nolan have been in the league; Dre and Jon got/have a shot. That's a good bit of talent!

Billy Dat
10-02-2014, 04:17 PM
Some of the journos spending time around the team seem to be projecting Justise over Rasheed as a starter:

Gary Parrish ‏@GaryParrishCBS 10m10 minutes ago
@GoodmanESPN @DukeForum … would be Tyus Jones, Quinn Cook, Justise Winslow, Amile Jefferson and Jahlil Okafor. That’s just a guess, though.

Laura Keeley ‏@laurakeeley 4m4 minutes ago
@duke5021 @VarandK @GoodmanESPN @GaryParrishCBS @DukeForum I'd bet it's Jones, Cook, Winslow, Amile and Okafor, but that's just me

BD80
10-02-2014, 05:18 PM
Some of the journos spending time around the team seem to be projecting Justise over Rasheed as a starter:

Gary Parrish ‏@GaryParrishCBS 10m10 minutes ago
@GoodmanESPN @DukeForum … would be Tyus Jones, Quinn Cook, Justise Winslow, Amile Jefferson and Jahlil Okafor. That’s just a guess, though.

Laura Keeley ‏@laurakeeley 4m4 minutes ago
@duke5021 @VarandK @GoodmanESPN @GaryParrishCBS @DukeForum I'd bet it's Jones, Cook, Winslow, Amile and Okafor, but that's just me

How good must Tyus be at leading a team from the point to be given the ball from day one over a SENIOR, well regarded, highly recruited, effective point guard? Quinn has worked with the staff for three and one half years, even started 4 games his freshman year, was second on the team in minutes his sophomore season, and third his junior season in minutes played behind 2 NBA first round picks.

Sounds to me like we will be valuing possessions far more than in past years. Sheed and Quinn have histories of unforced turnovers.

I wonder if the three point shot is going to be as prominent in our offense as in the past. Just by having Jahlil as our primary weapon we will cut down on three point attempts compared to two point attempts. More, I imagine we may cut down on the "quick three" on fast breaks. For a big man like Jah to make the sprint down court is an added exertion to the strenuous pushing for position in the paint that goes on all game. When a big guy makes the effort to get down court on the break, you want to get him the ball to force the opposing bigs to make the same run. If you shoot a quick three, you greatly reduce the value of having your big man beat the opposing bigs down the floor. Maybe when Marshall is in it is a viable option, but I'd hate to waste Jah on empty runs.

Kedsy
10-02-2014, 05:23 PM
*As an aside, it amazes me that some look back at that 2009-2010 team and think it didn't have all that much talent. Singler, Plumlee, Plumlee, Kelly are all going to be in the NBA for a while; Lance and Nolan have been in the league; Dre and Jon got/have a shot. That's a good bit of talent!

Z was in a training camp as well. Meaning all 9 scholarship players from that team at least got to NBA training camp, and at least 6 (not counting Andre out yet) played in regular season NBA games.

I remember at the time when some people argued there wasn't an NBA player out of the bunch.

Duvall
10-02-2014, 05:26 PM
How good must Tyus be at leading a team from the point to be given the ball from day one over a SENIOR, well regarded, highly recruited, effective point guard? Quinn has worked with the staff for three and one half years, even started 4 games his freshman year, was second on the team in minutes his sophomore season, and third his junior season in minutes played behind 2 NBA first round picks.

Sounds to me like we will be valuing possessions far more than in past years. Sheed and Quinn have histories of unforced turnovers.


Duke has been one of the best teams in the country at avoiding turnovers in the last two seasons (4th in 2013, 10th in 2014) - the seasons in which Sulaimon and Cook had prominent roles - so I highly doubt that's the reason. It's possible that Tyus may just be that kind of singular talent. We'll find out soon enough.

DukieTiger
10-02-2014, 05:30 PM
How good must Tyus be at leading a team from the point to be given the ball from day one over a SENIOR, well regarded, highly recruited, effective point guard? Quinn has worked with the staff for three and one half years, even started 4 games his freshman year, was second on the team in minutes his sophomore season, and third his junior season in minutes played behind 2 NBA first round picks.

Sounds to me like we will be valuing possessions far more than in past years. Sheed and Quinn have histories of unforced turnovers.

I wonder if the three point shot is going to be as prominent in our offense as in the past. Just by having Jahlil as our primary weapon we will cut down on three point attempts compared to two point attempts. More, I imagine we may cut down on the "quick three" on fast breaks. For a big man like Jah to make the sprint down court is an added exertion to the strenuous pushing for position in the paint that goes on all game. When a big guy makes the effort to get down court on the break, you want to get him the ball to force the opposing bigs to make the same run. If you shoot a quick three, you greatly reduce the value of having your big man beat the opposing bigs down the floor. Maybe when Marshall is in it is a viable option, but I'd hate to waste Jah on empty runs.

They might make a few dumb mistakes here or there, but statistically, Q and Sheed both have been pretty good at taking care of the ball. Sheed has turned the ball over on 12.6% and 13% of possessions in his two seasons (top 300 nationally both years). Quinn has turned it over on 12.1, 18.1, 16.1 (spiked, then got better last year). By comparison, Jon Scheyer turned the ball over about 11% of the time in his senior campaign- this put him in the top 80 in the country. They might not reach Jon's efficiency, but neither guy is someone you would consider a turnover liability.

For the record, Seth Curry also turned the ball over about 18% of the time in his Junior year. In his Sr. year though (sharing ball-handling duties with Quinn) he basically chopped that in half, turning it over only 9.6% of the time, good for top 30 nationally. Not saying Quinn will make that much of a jump, and they are different players- just thought it was interesting. Seth and Jon, to me, are two of the better ball protectors Duke has had recently. Q and Sheed don't compare too unfavorably.

Kedsy
10-02-2014, 05:41 PM
Sheed and Quinn have histories of unforced turnovers.

Quinn was 40th in the country in A/to ratio (7th in the ACC) as a junior and 45th in the country (2nd in the ACC) as a sophomore. As a freshman, if he'd played enough to qualify he'd have been tied for 2nd in the country (tied for 1st in the ACC). His career A/to ratio is 2.63, which happens to be the best career A/to ratio of any starting PG under Coach K.

So if Quinn has a history of unforced turnovers, I guess he hasn't given up too many forced ones, eh?

Wander
10-02-2014, 06:40 PM
Quinn was 40th in the country in A/to ratio (7th in the ACC) as a junior and 45th in the country (2nd in the ACC) as a sophomore. As a freshman, if he'd played enough to qualify he'd have been tied for 2nd in the country (tied for 1st in the ACC). His career A/to ratio is 2.63, which happens to be the best career A/to ratio of any starting PG under Coach K.

Yeah, Quinn is just fine at not turning the ball over. I think maybe what BD80 was thinking of was poor shot selection, which can sort of feel like turnovers, and explains why Cook has never had a great 3 point shooting percentage even though he seems to me like he should otherwise be a good shooter.

sagegrouse
10-02-2014, 06:48 PM
Yeah, Quinn is just fine at not turning the ball over. I think maybe what BD80 was thinking of was poor shot selection, which can sort of feel like turnovers, and explains why Cook has never had a great 3 point shooting percentage even though he seems to me like he should otherwise be a good shooter.

As best I can remember from last year -- and boy that seems like a long time ago! -- Quinn was more than occasionally just maneuvering with the ball to get an open shot, which often appeared forced. It was hardly distinguished play by a point guard, but I am sure he has been adequately counseled by the staff on what they expect from him this year.

Billy Dat
10-02-2014, 07:02 PM
Quinn was 40th in the country in A/to ratio (7th in the ACC) as a junior and 45th in the country (2nd in the ACC) as a sophomore. As a freshman, if he'd played enough to qualify he'd have been tied for 2nd in the country (tied for 1st in the ACC). His career A/to ratio is 2.63, which happens to be the best career A/to ratio of any starting PG under Coach K.

So if Quinn has a history of unforced turnovers, I guess he hasn't given up too many forced ones, eh?

The feeling I am getting is that this move has less to do with Quinn's production and efficiency as a PG and more to do with (A) Jones' perceived potential especially (B) trying to maximize that Jones/Okafor chemistry. Logic dictates that we'll only have Jahlil for one year. The Duke PG with the most reps getting him the ball, thanks to USA Basketball, is Tyus Jones. Combine that with the fact that none of our current guards has ever been particularly adept at feeding the post (not that our offense was designed that way, even for Mason), it seems like maybe we are going all in on this Jones/Okafor package....and if the coaches are willing to go that way, I'm excited to see how it works out. If Quinn is setting up as the off ball 2 (who, let's face it, will get to handle the ball plenty), then it's likely once again Rasheed who needs to, quoting Motown Mike, "figure out his supporting role in the musical".

Kedsy
10-02-2014, 07:19 PM
The feeling I am getting is that this move has less to do with Quinn's production and efficiency as a PG and more to do with (A) Jones' perceived potential especially (B) trying to maximize that Jones/Okafor chemistry. Logic dictates that we'll only have Jahlil for one year. The Duke PG with the most reps getting him the ball, thanks to USA Basketball, is Tyus Jones. Combine that with the fact that none of our current guards has ever been particularly adept at feeding the post (not that our offense was designed that way, even for Mason), it seems like maybe we are going all in on this Jones/Okafor package....and if the coaches are willing to go that way, I'm excited to see how it works out. If Quinn is setting up as the off ball 2 (who, let's face it, will get to handle the ball plenty), then it's likely once again Rasheed who needs to, quoting Motown Mike, "figure out his supporting role in the musical".

Despite several comments above regarding Quinn's poor past shot selection, another reason to play him off the ball is that he's one of our (only) two proven three-point shooters. Even if Coach K thought Quinn was a better PG than Tyus (and I have no idea what he thinks in this regard), it would still probably make sense to install Tyus at the point and Quinn off the ball.

I don't think either Quinn or Rasheed will have trouble figuring out their primary role this season -- shoot, shoot, shoot (and play defense).

roywhite
10-02-2014, 08:51 PM
Despite several comments above regarding Quinn's poor past shot selection, another reason to play him off the ball is that he's one of our (only) two proven three-point shooters. Even if Coach K thought Quinn was a better PG than Tyus (and I have no idea what he thinks in this regard), it would still probably make sense to install Tyus at the point and Quinn off the ball.

I don't think either Quinn or Rasheed will have trouble figuring out their primary role this season -- shoot, shoot, shoot (and play defense).

I like Quinn's outside shooting ability, and he often drives well in the open court, but I'm concerned about his defense, esp. if he is paired often with Tyus -- two guards on the small side and questionable ability to defend. Hope we see more of the Tyus Jones/Rasheed backcourt than other permutations.

Kedsy
10-02-2014, 09:02 PM
I like Quinn's outside shooting ability, and he often drives well in the open court, but I'm concerned about his defense, esp. if he is paired often with Tyus -- two guards on the small side and questionable ability to defend. Hope we see more of the Tyus Jones/Rasheed backcourt than other permutations.

I'm sure we'll see lots of permutations. But as DukieTiger pointed out earlier, Tyus/Quinn probably won't be significantly worse defensively than Quinn/one-legged-Seth, and that team's defense was fine (at least while Ryan Kelly was healthy).

gumbomoop
10-02-2014, 11:48 PM
Unless Krzyzewski goes to an 8/9-man rotation, possibly even 9/10, I have been assuming that Grayson, for all his exciting talent, won't play much by mid-season.

Maybe he's more of a wild card than I've considered. Here's a blog about "best reserves" who "will find a way to help."

http://m.espn.go.com/ncb/story?storyId=11622933

I don't buy it, but I admit I simply haven't given Grayson much thought.

dukelifer
10-03-2014, 06:49 AM
Unless Krzyzewski goes to an 8/9-man rotation, possibly even 9/10, I have been assuming that Grayson, for all his exciting talent, won't play much by mid-season.

Maybe he's more of a wild card than I've considered. Here's a blog about "best reserves" who "will find a way to help."

http://m.espn.go.com/ncb/story?storyId=11622933

I don't buy it, but I admit I simply haven't given Grayson much thought.

The most interesting part of this year's team is seeing who got better over the summer. Is Sheed ready to make a Nolan-like jump in ability- is Semi about to break out- will M Jones find his shooting stroke from HS- Is Marshall about to hit that Plumlee late stride? This team is very deep and the practices must be intense. I have no idea who will break out.

Ichabod Drain
10-03-2014, 08:24 AM
The most interesting part of this year's team is seeing who got better over the summer. Is Sheed ready to make a Nolan-like jump in ability- is Semi about to break out- will M Jones find his shooting stroke from HS- Is Marshall about to hit that Plumlee late stride? This team is very deep and the practices must be intense. I have no idea who will break out.

Speaking of getting better in the off-season, Quinn said (either in an interview or a DBP video, can't remember) that he and Semi were the only two players who stayed in Durham all summer. He said they worked every day and worked HARD everyday. He also said he worked a considerable amount on both his on and off the ball defense.

devildeac
10-03-2014, 08:36 AM
Speaking of getting better in the off-season, Quinn said (either in an interview or a DBP video, can't remember) that he and Semi were the only two players who stayed in Durham all summer. He said they worked every day and worked HARD everyday. He also said he worked a considerable amount on both his on and off the ball defense.

I believe this was also quoted in a Raleigh News and Observer article this week. Sounds very encouraging.

kAzE
10-03-2014, 09:57 AM
Friendly wager: If Jefferson is a higher All-ACC than Sulaimon, I will change my profile pic to whatever you want for 6 months. If Sulaimon is a higher All-ACC than Jefferson, you change your profile pic to the Celtics logo for 6 months. Deal?

Deal. If I win, you have to change your pic to a head shot of Justin Bieber.

flyingdutchdevil
10-03-2014, 10:45 AM
Deal. If I win, you have to change your pic to a head shot of Justin Bieber.

Done. But I get the choose the Bieber picture

Come on Sulaimon!!!

Troublemaker
10-03-2014, 10:56 AM
I got this video interview of Jahlil from Blue Devil Nation's twitter: http://youtu.be/xKcb5VkQiYE?t=2m5s

In it, Jahlil is asked which player has impressed him the most so far. His reply was Justise Winslow. In Jahlil's words, Justise has been "dominant," "a man amongst boys," and "his jumpshot has really been falling." If the latter is true and Justise can punish teams for leaving him open, he will probably start at SF given all his other tools.

flyingdutchdevil
10-03-2014, 11:01 AM
Gary Parrish @GaryParrishCBS · 6m 6 minutes ago
Had a long conversation yesterday with @BigJah15. Impressive guy. And note to NBA scouts: He’s totally reshaped his body. Looks terrific.

Gary Parrish @GaryParrishCBS · 7m 7 minutes ago
Also: The consensus after early workouts at Duke is that he’s been as good, if not better, than advertised. Everybody’s really high on him.

And yet, when the tournament ends, and Jahlil says, "I haven't made up my mind about the draft. I need to talk with my family, the coaches, and do a little bit of research," how many pages is DBR gonna waste on the 0.0000001% chance that Jahlil comes back for his second year?

Over / under on 8.5?

MCFinARL
10-03-2014, 11:39 AM
I believe this was also quoted in a Raleigh News and Observer article this week. Sounds very encouraging.

Yes--I noted that as well. I'm very interested to see what Semi might be able to do after a summer of hard work--we have really not been talking about him at all, and obviously the competition for playing time will be brutal. But maybe he can find a role.


And yet, when the tournament ends, and Jahlil says, "I haven't made up my mind about the draft. I need to talk with my family, the coaches, and do a little bit of research," how many pages is DBR gonna waste on the 0.0000001% chance that Jahlil comes back for his second year?

Over / under on 8.5?

I would say over--but then, I think you can adjust DBR to control the number of posts that show up per page, so maybe we should be looking at number of posts instead of number of pages. :D

MChambers
10-03-2014, 11:43 AM
And yet, when the tournament ends, and Jahlil says, "I haven't made up my mind about the draft. I need to talk with my family, the coaches, and do a little bit of research," how many pages is DBR gonna waste on the 0.0000001% chance that Jahlil comes back for his second year?

Over / under on 8.5?
I hear he really loves college life, education, and Duke in particular, so there's a chance!

Kedsy
10-03-2014, 11:59 AM
Unless Krzyzewski goes to an 8/9-man rotation, possibly even 9/10, I have been assuming that Grayson, for all his exciting talent, won't play much by mid-season.

Maybe he's more of a wild card than I've considered. Here's a blog about "best reserves" who "will find a way to help."

http://m.espn.go.com/ncb/story?storyId=11622933

I don't buy it, but I admit I simply haven't given Grayson much thought.

Yeah, I agree with you, but I guess you never know. Maybe K will surprise us all (except Superdave) and go with the line changes again.

Nah.

Kedsy
10-03-2014, 12:01 PM
...or maybe Duke will be so good that the end of the bench will all get 10 minutes of garbage time every game. I guess this is the time of year to entertain such thoughts, right?

MCFinARL
10-03-2014, 12:07 PM
...or maybe Duke will be so good that the end of the bench will all get 10 minutes of garbage time every game. I guess this is the time of year to entertain such thoughts, right?

You mean, before a beautiful theory is mugged by a gang of facts? :D

superdave
10-03-2014, 12:26 PM
Yeah, I agree with you, but I guess you never know. Maybe K will surprise us all (except Superdave) and go with the line changes again.

Nah.

One might argue we would have beaten Mercer last season had we kept the platoon system.........

subzero02
10-03-2014, 12:34 PM
I hear he really loves college life, education, and Duke in particular, so there's a chance!

He also made a pact with Tyus to attend the same college and turn pro together but it looks like Tyus is leaning towards coming back... ;-)

Kedsy
10-03-2014, 12:34 PM
One might argue we would have beaten Mercer last season had we kept the platoon system.........

One might argue we'd have beaten Mercer last season if we'd played the next day.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
10-03-2014, 01:05 PM
One might argue we'd have beaten Mercer last season if we'd played the next day.

One might argue that we could have slipped past Mercer if we still had Kyrie. Or if we still had, erm, Zoubek.

tommy
10-03-2014, 01:07 PM
One might argue we'd have beaten Mercer last season if we'd played the next day.

One might argue we'd have beaten Mercer ten times in a row, starting with the day after the game that mattered.

sagegrouse
10-03-2014, 01:15 PM
One might argue we'd have beaten Mercer last season if we'd played the next day.


One might argue that we could have slipped past Mercer if we still had Kyrie. Or if we still had, erm, Zoubek.

I mentioned this many pages above, but does anyone else here think that initial starting lineups will express K's utter dissatisfaction with the way last season ended? Coach K may send a strong message to the players on that team. Thus, the new guys get to start, and the returning veterans get to prove they belong on the court. It's all de novo; one gets no credit for being an upperclassman. I suppose we'll find out.

Troublemaker
10-03-2014, 01:33 PM
I mentioned this many pages above, but does anyone else here think that initial starting lineups will express K's utter dissatisfaction with the way last season ended? Coach K may send a strong message to the players on that team. Thus, the new guys get to start, and the returning veterans get to prove they belong on the court. It's all de novo; one gets no credit for being an upperclassman. I suppose we'll find out.

No, because I think that approach would contradict his "next play" and "collective responsibility" philosophies.

I have heard Coach K and some of the players discuss how there aren't really freshmen on this team, just "Duke basketball players." But I think that's a reflection of how special and prepared this freshman class is and not a punitive measure against returnees for last season's disappointments.

3 freshmen may start (2 are already locks, it seems) and all 4 may be in the rotation, but I wouldn't read too much into that other than that they're really good players.

superdave
10-03-2014, 01:47 PM
I mentioned this many pages above, but does anyone else here think that initial starting lineups will express K's utter dissatisfaction with the way last season ended? Coach K may send a strong message to the players on that team. Thus, the new guys get to start, and the returning veterans get to prove they belong on the court. It's all de novo; one gets no credit for being an upperclassman. I suppose we'll find out.

My guess is when he yells "If you do not play defense and communicate you will not get your buttox off the bench!" repeatedly the first day of practice, everyone will get the point.

I dont think Amile, Quinn and Rasheed need to be told the defense stunk either.

I know I've made this point before, but Quinn hounded both Cat Barber and Tyler Lewis off the court last year. He can play great D when he wants to.

ChillinDuke
10-03-2014, 01:48 PM
And yet, when the tournament ends, and Jahlil says, "I haven't made up my mind about the draft. I need to talk with my family, the coaches, and do a little bit of research," how many pages is DBR gonna waste on the 0.0000001% chance that Jahlil comes back for his second year?

Over / under on 8.5?

Oh, I'll take the over. No question.

But I will not be contributing to the count. Big Jah is gone next season, much like Jabari was gone before he stepped on the court. Nothing wrong with that, either.

- Chillin

Kedsy
10-03-2014, 02:04 PM
I mentioned this many pages above, but does anyone else here think that initial starting lineups will express K's utter dissatisfaction with the way last season ended? Coach K may send a strong message to the players on that team. Thus, the new guys get to start, and the returning veterans get to prove they belong on the court. It's all de novo; one gets no credit for being an upperclassman. I suppose we'll find out.


No, because I think that approach would contradict his "next play" and "collective responsibility" philosophies.

I have heard Coach K and some of the players discuss how there aren't really freshmen on this team, just "Duke basketball players." But I think that's a reflection of how special and prepared this freshman class is and not a punitive measure against returnees for last season's disappointments.

3 freshmen may start (2 are already locks, it seems) and all 4 may be in the rotation, but I wouldn't read too much into that other than that they're really good players.

I agree with Troublemaker. If Coach K punished the returnees for last season's sins it would really surprise me. He always says each team is an entirely new entity.

flyingdutchdevil
10-03-2014, 02:10 PM
Oh, I'll take the over. No question.

But I will not be contributing to the count. Big Jah is gone next season, much like Jabari was gone before he stepped on the court. Nothing wrong with that, either.

- Chillin

Yup. Let's enjoy his 40 games while we can.

DukieTiger
10-03-2014, 02:37 PM
A couple of photos from practice: https://twitter.com/BlueDevilLair/status/518093981386035201

Justise running with the whites, at least for now. Of course, a lot can/will change before November, or even CTC. There always does seem to be that one position that is in flux, where multiple guys can slot in.

Don't know how much starting matters. I think we can all agree that the top 6 will play- probably similar amounts. There's something to be said for bringing Sheed off the bench for some scoring punch. If he's alternating with Q, it keeps one of Duke's best shooters on the floor the majority of the time.

blUDAYvil
10-03-2014, 02:50 PM
...or maybe Duke will be so good that the end of the bench will all get 10 minutes of garbage time every game. I guess this is the time of year to entertain such thoughts, right?


One might argue we would have beaten Mercer last season had we kept the platoon system.........

Coach Cal is entertaining the platoon idea...
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/11634438/kentucky-wildcats-deep-enough-use-two-starting-units-john-calipari-says

Kedsy
10-03-2014, 03:01 PM
Coach Cal is entertaining the platoon idea...
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/11634438/kentucky-wildcats-deep-enough-use-two-starting-units-john-calipari-says

And he's saying it's an original idea:



Now we're trying to do something never done in college basketball...

DukieInBrasil
10-03-2014, 03:08 PM
My guess is when he yells "If you do not play defense and communicate you will not get your buttox off the bench!" repeatedly the first day of practice, everyone will get the point.

I dont think Amile, Quinn and Rasheed need to be told the defense stunk either.

I know I've made this point before, but Quinn hounded both Cat Barber and Tyler Lewis off the court last year. He can play great D when he wants to.

Quinn definitely had poor moments on defense, but more often played at least average D, sometimes even excellent. I always thought Amile played better than average and actually compensated for a lot of mistakes. Rasheed often did his part correctly in the Team D concept only to discover that there was a complete failure to execute behind him. It's hard to overstate just how terrible Jabari was at playing interior defense, part of it is that he wasn't designed to be an interior defender or that he didn't have much experience there. But both of those shortcomings can be overcome with effort and practice. Jabari is a talented offensive player and perhaps even made up for some of his lapses by scoring so much, but during his time at Duke he was an unmitigated disaster on D. He was so bad he made other players look bad b/c they had to cover for his mistakes. However, there was no single player on the team that could accurately be called a defensive stopper, someone so good they could prevent/eliminate others' mistakes. Maybe this year's team has that player, hopefully this team does not have anyone as bad on defense as Jabari was last year. Fortunately, this team has better than adequate options at all the positions, so nobody will have to play out of position for more than a couple of minutes per game (if at all) this year.

Troublemaker
10-03-2014, 03:26 PM
Justise running with the whites, at least for now.

Yup, according to those images, whites were Jones, Cook, Winslow, Jefferson, Okafor.

I'd say the journalists did a good job sniffing that out over the past couple of days.

(But as you said, it's only the first day of practice. Things could change.)

Duvall
10-03-2014, 03:27 PM
And he's saying it's an original idea:

Oh, please. (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/12/19/AR2006121901704.html)


Baucom believed the best way to keep games close would be to wear down teams with conditioning and increased possessions. That would make points less valuable, a sort of hard-court inflation. If VMI trailed 50-35 in the second half, it would be like being down 30. If VMI trailed 90-75, it would be like being down eight or so.

VMI would create this pace using constant full-court pressure, trapping the ball wherever it went. On offense, the Keydets would freewheel, launching every open shot they found. They would sub in a fresh five players every two minutes, like hockey shifts, to maintain the frenzy. They would need to create extra possessions to make up for all the missed shots, so all but one player would crash the offensive boards.

kAzE
10-03-2014, 03:28 PM
Oh, I'll take the over. No question.

But I will not be contributing to the count. Big Jah is gone next season, much like Jabari was gone before he stepped on the court. Nothing wrong with that, either.

- Chillin

We should probably just set our expectations low when it comes to star freshmen staying on for multiple years. It's just the way things work in basketball these days. I'm going into this season expecting it to be the only season we will see Okafor, Jones, and Winslow in a Duke uniform. I expect all 3 to be 1st round picks in next year's draft, possibly all lottery picks. If any of them return, it'll be a huge bonus, but after waiting with baited breath on Kyrie, Austin Rivers, and Jabari to make stay-or-go decisions, I've learned to expect the inevitable.

Also, to anyone who thinks Tyus Jones is a shoo-in to come back for his sophomore year because he won't be "ready" after one year: you will change your mind after you watch him play this year. He's special. He might not be a physically dominant player, but in terms of his feel for the game, and his ability to run an offense, he's one of the best point guards to come out of high school in a long time. If Tyler Ennis can go #18 overall (in a stacked draft), Tyus Jones will go at least top 15 next year if he declares. I think he's better than Ennis.

Saratoga2
10-03-2014, 03:44 PM
I mentioned this many pages above, but does anyone else here think that initial starting lineups will express K's utter dissatisfaction with the way last season ended? Coach K may send a strong message to the players on that team. Thus, the new guys get to start, and the returning veterans get to prove they belong on the court. It's all de novo; one gets no credit for being an upperclassman. I suppose we'll find out.

Coach K is likely to award starting roles and PT based on who he thinks gives Duke the advantage on the court and not for reasons such a sending messages or punishing players for past sins. There are a lot of possibilities on this team for lineup variations. While we are likely to see a lot of Okafor, Cook, Jefferson, Tyus Jones and Sulaimon, there are going to be at least Matt Jones, Ojeleye, Winslow and Plumlee near the front of the bench and even Allen may show more than expected. Most of these guys mentioned would start for a lot of DIV I teams. I am saisfied to just watch what develops. Not long now to tip off.

Olympic Fan
10-03-2014, 04:00 PM
I don't know why so many guys in this thread are dismissing Grayson Allen's chances of playing a major role.

Every comment I've heard from coaches or players is talking about his toughness, his athleticism and his defensive chops. And his maturity. I was asking one assistant about the widespread feeling that Winslow could be the shutdown defender on this team and he told me that the most likely shutdown guy in the freshman class was Allen.

The competition is tough at guard, but Allen is in the mix ...

(PS Think how much Matt Jones would have played last season if he had been half the shooter he was supposed to be!)

kAzE
10-03-2014, 04:12 PM
I don't know why so many guys in this thread are dismissing Grayson Allen's chances of playing a major role.

Every comment I've heard from coaches or players is talking about his toughness, his athleticism and his defensive chops. And his maturity. I was asking one assistant about the widespread feeling that Winslow could be the shutdown defender on this team and he told me that the most likely shutdown guy in the freshman class was Allen.

The competition is tough at guard, but Allen is in the mix ...

(PS Think how much Matt Jones would have played last season if he had been half the shooter he was supposed to be!)

I'm really wondering about Allen myself. He's been getting rave reviews, but then again, so was Alex Murphy the summer before his freshman year. In terms of athleticism, I don't see anyone being able to match up with the type of players that Winslow will be able to, but it's nice to hear that Allen is standing out with his effort. However, I absolutely expect Justise Winslow to be guarding Same Dekker (one of the biggest match up problem guys in the nation) when the team comes over to Madison for the game against the Badgers.

Duvall
10-03-2014, 04:15 PM
I don't know why so many guys in this thread are dismissing Grayson Allen's chances of playing a major role.

Every comment I've heard from coaches or players is talking about his toughness, his athleticism and his defensive chops. And his maturity. I was asking one assistant about the widespread feeling that Winslow could be the shutdown defender on this team and he told me that the most likely shutdown guy in the freshman class was Allen.

The competition is tough at guard, but Allen is in the mix ...

(PS Think how much Matt Jones would have played last season if he had been half the shooter he was supposed to be!)

Because offseason comments are basically meaningless - everyone looks great in the summer. Meanwhile, Allen will be competing against more experienced players that were rated as highly or more for minutes.

Bluegrassdevil1
10-03-2014, 04:29 PM
(PS Think how much Matt Jones would have played last season if he had been half the shooter he was supposed to be!)

I found M. Jones' shooting struggles to be as bizarre a reality as any for a Duke player that I have witnessed in some time, maybe ever. For whatever reason, the kid's perceived strength was his weakness, yet he remained a fighter and a scrapper whenever on the court.

No matter what happens during the upcoming season, I hope that M. Jones and Ojeleye find some PT, as their grittiness was certainly absent many times over on the court, and I would trade any amount of "star power" for the grit of those two kids.

Kedsy
10-03-2014, 04:29 PM
I don't know why so many guys in this thread are dismissing Grayson Allen's chances of playing a major role.


Meanwhile, Allen will be competing against more experienced players that were rated as highly or more for minutes.

I'm with Duvall. The only way Grayson has a chance of playing a major role is if Coach K decides to go 9 or 10 deep, which he's done exactly zero times in all his time at Duke. I suppose it's possible Grayson could beat out Matt and Semi for 8th guy in the rotation, but it's not very likely.

Next year and beyond it'll be a completely different story, but right now I can't see Grayson playing much outside of garbage time.


(PS Think how much Matt Jones would have played last season if he had been half the shooter he was supposed to be!)

Do you think so? Whose minutes would he have taken?

It's a sum zero game. Which is why in 2014-15, Matt and Semi and Marshall and Grayson may all deserve 20+ minutes (or, at least they would on almost every team in the country), there's little chance any of them will come close to that figure.

ChillinDuke
10-03-2014, 04:50 PM
Yup. Let's enjoy his 40 games while we can.

I see what you did there.

- Chillin

Troublemaker
10-03-2014, 05:49 PM
Sights and Sounds from First Practice (Go Duke video) (http://www.goduke.com/mediaPortal/player.dbml?id=3451794)

Nicely done. That video got me pumped.

Duvall
10-03-2014, 05:56 PM
Krzyzewski comments. (http://www.goduke.com/mediaPortal/player.dbml?db_oem_id=4200&id=3451055&catid=901)

Olympic Fan
10-03-2014, 07:05 PM
Because offseason comments are basically meaningless - everyone looks great in the summer. Meanwhile, Allen will be competing against more experienced players that were rated as highly or more for minutes.

I stand corrected ... and I realize that you are right and I'm wrong to be excited about Jahlil Okafor. Yeah, the buzz about him has been good, but he'll be competing against the more experienced Marshall Plumlee for playing time. And no way Tyus Jones can beat out the more experienced Quinn Cook at point guard.

Look, I hesitate to suggests that the coaches I talk to know more than the message board experts with their vast first-half knowledge as to how the kids look. But I'm telling you that EVERYBODY connected with the team I talk to says that Allen is going to be a major factor. I wonder where Myron Medcalf at ESPN got the idea that Grayson Allen is going to be the second most important reserve in college basketball this year:

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/11622933/top-10-reserves-college-basketball-2014-2015-season

You think he might have been talking to the Duke coaches too?

They could all be wrong and I agree that the buzz about Alex Murphy two years ago was wrong. It's not like the message board experts are always right either ... and most of the time I've gotten this kind of feedback about a kid, it's been right -- from Singler before his freshman year to Quinn before his sophomore year to Nolan before his junior year ...

Personally, I think our top reserve will be whichever one of Cook, Sheed and Winslow who doesn't start. But I see no reason that Allen could not be the next man in line -- or, if Sheed or Cook falter as they did at times last year, ahead of one or both of them.

I go back to Matt Jones. He was ready to move into the rotation (even starting lineup) at midseason last year -- ahead of Sheed, because he was playing the best defense on the team and he moved the ball on offense. He started four straight games (beginning with the Virginia game in Cameron) and played 19-17-16 minutes in the first three starts. He dropped to six minutes in his fourth start and then lost his starting job (and his role in the main rotation) because he flat out couldn't shoot -- he was an offensive black hole. I repeat, if he is the shooter he was reputed to be, Matt Jones would have averaged 18-20 minutes -- maybe more -- for Duke last season.

A lot of things are still in flux this season, but I'm telling you there is a VERY good chance that Grayson Allen plays a major role as a freshman. You don't have to believe me -- it's just an anonymous message board post.

But so if the stuff you guys are spouting.

azzefkram
10-03-2014, 09:04 PM
Personally, I think our top reserve will be whichever one of Cook, Sheed and Winslow who doesn't start. But I see no reason that Allen could not be the next man in line -- or, if Sheed or Cook falter as they did at times last year, ahead of one or both of them.

I have no idea how good Allen may be but one issue I can see in your reasoning is that if Allen is the seventh man that means Jahlil and Amile are playing 35+ mpg and Duke is going small for about 10 mpg. I just don't think that is a likely possibility.

Newton_14
10-03-2014, 09:52 PM
And yet, when the tournament ends, and Jahlil says, "I haven't made up my mind about the draft. I need to talk with my family, the coaches, and do a little bit of research," how many pages is DBR gonna waste on the 0.0000001% chance that Jahlil comes back for his second year?

Over / under on 8.5?
You are right of course, but one of these days, one of these guys is going to buck the trend and actually come back for that 2nd year. The center at UK (whose name escapes me) has actually done it twice now. Not the greatest comparison of course, but one of these days a sure fire one and done at Duke will actually come back, shocking the world and of course the DBR community.

kAzE
10-03-2014, 10:11 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=T9uTEIvkcls

Allen is pretty spry for a 6'4" white guy. Most Duke fans should probably know by now that he's got hops, but I think the rest of the college basketball world will be in for a shock when he posterizes someone for the first time in a big game. I'm looking forward to it.

kAzE
10-03-2014, 10:22 PM
You are right of course, but one of these days, one of these guys is going to buck the trend and actually come back for that 2nd year. The center at UK (whose name escapes me) has actually done it twice now. Not the greatest comparison of course, but one of these days a sure fire one and done at Duke will actually come back, shocking the world and of course the DBR community.

Yeah . . not really the best comparison. I believe you are referring to Willie Caulie-Stein, who would have been a late first rounder at best had he declared in 2013, and probably in that range had he declared this past year. It's surprising that he did come back for his junior year, but it's not really the same thing being projected as a top 5 pick and coming back. That hasn't happened (at least to my recollection) since #22 did it after his sophomore year at Duke.

Newton_14
10-03-2014, 11:06 PM
No, because I think that approach would contradict his "next play" and "collective responsibility" philosophies.

I have heard Coach K and some of the players discuss how there aren't really freshmen on this team, just "Duke basketball players." But I think that's a reflection of how special and prepared this freshman class is and not a punitive measure against returnees for last season's disappointments.

3 freshmen may start (2 are already locks, it seems) and all 4 may be in the rotation, but I wouldn't read too much into that other than that they're really good players.

Actually I am not convinced Sage is wrong, and you are only partially right. In the locker room following the Lehigh debacle it got ugly. All managers had to clear the room. Only players and coaches. Losing in the first round to a nobody is unacceptable to K. The standards are too high. Therefore there must be penalties incurred and pain endured, as a reminder, that "thou shalt not allow that to happen again on your watch". Who knows what those penalties are for Mercer, but rest assured there is a price to be paid.

The freshmen are good, and I am not suffering one bit from "shiny new "recruititis". All reports coming out of camp and practice, directly from coaches, and players, is that they all can play and contribute, including Grayson Allen. So with that it appears all 4 are going to push the veterans really hard for both starting positions and PT overall. So yes that is based on how good the newbies are, but it is also based on returning veterans that do not have many personal or team accolades on their resume's. Quinn was on the floor for both Lehigh/Mercer. Rasheed, Matt, MP3, Amile, Semi were on the floor or bench for Mercer. I never slam Duke players, as they are kids playing a tough sport against tough competition and they make mistakes, but outside of Amile, Cook, and Rasheed, who would you feel comfortable betting the farm on to have a breakout year and be a high contributor? And would you bet the farm on Amile, Cook, or Rasheed, reaching 1st or 2nd All-ACC team? Is there a single one of them you would bet the farm on making even 3rd Team All American?

I have no doubt all of those vets are highly motivated, highly embarrassed over Mercer, likely improved as players, with growth in maturation, and ready to make amends, but they will have to earn every single second they get on the floor. I think any one or more of the threesome of Amile, Cook, or Rasheed could legitimately make 2nd Team All-ACC, and longshots to make 1st Team All-ACC. I see no chance any of them make any All American team. Meanwhile, Jahlil could certainly make 1st Team All-ACC, and 1st or 2nd Team All America. What I am trying to portray (and maybe not so well, sorry) is all of the veterans will have to bring it all the time, game over game, with no major, extended lapses of bad play to avoid finding a seat next to the walkons and watching a highly talented freshman get minutes. The competition will be fierce, and maybe as Sage suggests, because of Mercer, and other past history, K could very well choose to start the season with the two exhibition games starting 3 or all 4 of the freshman to show the vets starting roles will need to be earned, with everyone starting on a level playing field for spots. Remember Murphy starting his first exhibition game two years in a row over veterans? It did not last of course, but K sent the message nonetheless.


"Next Play" is a K staple, but so is "here's to never forgetting Virginia in 83".

Kedsy
10-03-2014, 11:21 PM
Personally, I think our top reserve will be whichever one of Cook, Sheed and Winslow who doesn't start. But I see no reason that Allen could not be the next man in line -- or, if Sheed or Cook falter as they did at times last year, ahead of one or both of them.

I go back to Matt Jones. He was ready to move into the rotation (even starting lineup) at midseason last year -- ahead of Sheed, because he was playing the best defense on the team and he moved the ball on offense. He started four straight games (beginning with the Virginia game in Cameron) and played 19-17-16 minutes in the first three starts. He dropped to six minutes in his fourth start and then lost his starting job (and his role in the main rotation) because he flat out couldn't shoot -- he was an offensive black hole. I repeat, if he is the shooter he was reputed to be, Matt Jones would have averaged 18-20 minutes -- maybe more -- for Duke last season.

Well, the three games that Matt Jones played 19-17-16 minutes were the line-change games. Soon as Coach K reverted to his usual 7/8 man rotation, Matt played 65 minutes in 16 games (4 mpg). You may say it's because he shot poorly, but I think it was because he was the 9th guy in the rotation.

In Coach K's 34 seasons, the guy who plays 18 to 20 minutes a game is generally the 6th man (there are a few exceptions, but not very many -- last year, for example, our 7th man played fewer than 14 mpg). Do you really think Matt Jones would have been our 6th man last season if he'd shot better? Obviously, none of us can say for certain, but that doesn't sound very likely to me.

But for the moment, let's say you're right about Matt being that good. That sort of makes it even less credible that Grayson Allen could jump past both Matt Jones and Marshall Plumlee (as well as Semi Ojeleye) and become our 7th man this season.

But hey, I don't have any sources at all. I've just studied the historical trends. So if one of the Duke coaches has told you that Grayson Allen has already jumped Matt Jones and Marshall Plumlee in the rotation, then maybe it'll happen. If one of the Duke coaches has told you that Coach K plans to toss out the 7 or 8 man rotation he's used for the past 30+ years and truly go 9 or 10 deep for the first time ever, then maybe it'll happen.

Guess we'll find out soon enough.

lotusland
10-04-2014, 10:15 AM
Actually I am not convinced Sage is wrong, and you are only partially right. In the locker room following the Lehigh debacle it got ugly. All managers had to clear the room. Only players and coaches. Losing in the first round to a nobody is unacceptable to K. The standards are too high. Therefore there must be penalties incurred and pain endured, as a reminder, that "thou shalt not allow that to happen again on your watch". Who knows what those penalties are for Mercer, but rest assured there is a price to be paid.

The freshmen are good, and I am not suffering one bit from "shiny new "recruititis". All reports coming out of camp and practice, directly from coaches, and players, is that they all can play and contribute, including Grayson Allen. So with that it appears all 4 are going to push the veterans really hard for both starting positions and PT overall. So yes that is based on how good the newbies are, but it is also based on returning veterans that do not have many personal or team accolades on their resume's. Quinn was on the floor for both Lehigh/Mercer. Rasheed, Matt, MP3, Amile, Semi were on the floor or bench for Mercer. I never slam Duke players, as they are kids playing a tough sport against tough competition and they make mistakes, but outside of Amile, Cook, and Rasheed, who would you feel comfortable betting the farm on to have a breakout year and be a high contributor? And would you bet the farm on Amile, Cook, or Rasheed, reaching 1st or 2nd All-ACC team? Is there a single one of them you would bet the farm on making even 3rd Team All American?

I have no doubt all of those vets are highly motivated, highly embarrassed over Mercer, likely improved as players, with growth in maturation, and ready to make amends, but they will have to earn every single second they get on the floor. I think any one or more of the threesome of Amile, Cook, or Rasheed could legitimately make 2nd Team All-ACC, and longshots to make 1st Team All-ACC. I see no chance any of them make any All American team. Meanwhile, Jahlil could certainly make 1st Team All-ACC, and 1st or 2nd Team All America. What I am trying to portray (and maybe not so well, sorry) is all of the veterans will have to bring it all the time, game over game, with no major, extended lapses of bad play to avoid finding a seat next to the walkons and watching a highly talented freshman get minutes. The competition will be fierce, and maybe as Sage suggests, because of Mercer, and other past history, K could very well choose to start the season with the two exhibition games starting 3 or all 4 of the freshman to show the vets starting roles will need to be earned, with everyone starting on a level playing field for spots. Remember Murphy starting his first exhibition game two years in a row over veterans? It did not last of course, but K sent the message nonetheless.


"Next Play" is a K staple, but so is "here's to never forgetting Virginia in 83".

I can't imagine how Quinn and Rasheed would be held responsible for the Mercer loss since those two had huge games. If there is a lesson to be learned from the loss it may be that the shiny new frosh should take a back seat until they earn their place in some actual games. And maybe that knowing how to defend in Duke's complicated (at least to me) system is at least as valuable as making the play of the day on espn. One thing all Duke's recent OAD players have had in common was average to poor performance on D. What the Mercer and Lehigh loss teams had in common is that both were led by OAD freshmen. I know it is frequently repeated on here that good defense is a requirement for minutes under K but, if that is actually a rule, there seems to be an exception for offensively gifted OAD freshmen. So maybe Mason should have been more assertive about taking a leadership role his junior year and likewise Cook last year but I wonder is a little more emphasis on veteran leadership from the coaching staff might have helped that with dynamic .

sagegrouse
10-04-2014, 11:28 AM
Actually I am not convinced Sage is wrong, and you are only partially right. In the locker room following the Lehigh debacle it got ugly. All managers had to clear the room. Only players and coaches. Losing in the first round to a nobody is unacceptable to K. The standards are too high. Therefore there must be penalties incurred and pain endured, as a reminder, that "thou shalt not allow that to happen again on your watch". Who knows what those penalties are for Mercer, but rest assured there is a price to be paid.

.

Here's my guess. Coach K had a formative summer. He took a bunch of somewhat unknown and internationally untested US players, mostly young, to the FIBA World Cup, and they kicked the rest of the world's butt. Under his guidance, Kyrie, whom a lot of fans and experts disparage, set the Worlds on fire and was named MVP, and Faried blossomed into an international star and, I'll bet, an NBA all-star.

Now K returns to Duke, and realizes he is coaching a team whose most outstanding accomplishment was being runner-up in the ACC's and whose worst failing was losing in the round of 64 to Mercer -- Mercer??? This ain't much for a coach with two Olympic gold medals, two FIBA championships, four NCAA titles, 11 Final Fours, and 13 ACC championships. In fact, it's a downright embarrassment. He's supposedly the best basketball coach in the world, and his previous college season was a failure.

Why wouldn't he shake things up? He sees some really good freshmen and a bunch of other good players who didn't set the world on fire and were on the court when Duke lost to Mercer. Jump ball!! The freshman are four of the five starters and the rest of you guys can try and beat them out, but we're not putting up with the BS we had last year -- no defense, no leadership, and no performance when things get tough.

Kindly,
Sage

gumbomoop
10-04-2014, 11:31 AM
Having some many posts above helped start us down the road to discussing Grayson, I've found many subsequent responses helpful in my reconsidering his role. Clearly Krzyzewski's pattern of going with a 7/8-man rotation is a/the crucial contextual factor in discussing especially the players who seem likely to be fighting for minutes from the 7-10 slots. I can't recall any poster suggesting that any of Amile, Quinn, Rasheed, Tyus, Justise, or Jahlil will not play significant minutes, so the Grayson-theme blends naturally into a discussion/debate about which 2 of Marshall, Semi, Grayson, and Matt will nab spots 7/8.

I'd be interested in hearing K respond to a question about that 7/8-rotation pattern, and whether it will hold this season. My sense is that K respects some reporters and some questions more than others; and at times, IMO, he's too thin-skinned at perceived -- just occasionally misperceived -- slights. So, are there reporters who could get a thoughtful response to these questions?


"Most years, you seem to prefer to go with 7 or 8 guys in your rotation. Would you say that's an accurate description?"
"Does the depth of talent on this year's team lead you to think maybe you'll go more like 9 deep, even late in the season?"
"Can you tells us a few players who will play multiple spots on the floor?" [This would give K a chance to say, "If by spots you mean positions, we try to avoid limiting our guys to positions, so, yes, lots of guys will play multiple roles, but that's no different from every season."]
"Any chance at all that Marshall and Jahlil will be on the court together?" [If to this question K responded, "Oh, definitely they'll warm up before the game together," well, that would probably settle that issue. Otoh, if he said, "We're looking at that, because, you know, there might be something interesting there," well, that would start a new thread.]

Olympic Fan
10-04-2014, 11:42 AM
I have no idea how good Allen may be but one issue I can see in your reasoning is that if Allen is the seventh man that means Jahlil and Amile are playing 35+ mpg and Duke is going small for about 10 mpg. I just don't think that is a likely possibility.

I don't understand your perspective ... over the last decade, Coach K has never been reluctant to go small for long periods.

Just two years ago, four of the top five players in minutes played on Duke's Elite Eight team were guards (Curry, Cook, Sulaimon and Thornton). In 2009, five of the top seven were guards -- and the eighth guy (McClure) was pretty much a swing man. In 2008, five of the top seven were guards (almost five of the top six -- Lance Thomas just beat out Nolan Smith for No. 6).

I don't think it's a stretch to think that four of the top seven in minutes this year will be guards -- Jones, Cook, Sulaimon and Allen. I don't see how that means that Okafor asnd Jefferson have to play 35 minutes ... I think both will be closer to 25 minutes.

Think of it this way -- basically Jones gets Thornton's minutes off last year's team ... Allen gets Dawkins' minutes and Winslow gets Hood's minutes ... with Okafor getting Jabari's minutes.

Will it happen that way? I don't know ... but it's not so farfetched (as long as you don't take it too directly in terms of minutes).

I think some of you are underestimating the minutes that Winslow will get at the 4 .... if DeMarcus Nelson and Gerald Henderson could play serious minute at the 4, so can Winslow (in fact, he's much better equipped to guard the position).

Kedsy
10-04-2014, 11:57 AM
Think of it this way -- basically Jones gets Thornton's minutes off last year's team ... Allen gets Dawkins' minutes and Winslow gets Hood's minutes ... with Okafor getting Jabari's minutes.

Will it happen that way? I don't know ... but it's not so farfetched (as long as you don't take it too directly in terms of minutes).


Well, my guess is you'll say this response is "too directly in terms of minutes," but the flaws I see in the above analysis are (a) Tyus, as starting PG, will get a lot more minutes than Tyler did last year; (b) Rasheed, Marshall, and Amile should all play more minutes than they did last year; (c) for Grayson to play Andre's minutes, he'll have to leapfrog Matt and Semi (and Marshall, really), to get there; (d) the combined increased minutes described in (a) and (b) above should come to around 15 mpg, give or take; and (e) Andre played fewer than 14 mpg.

dragoneye776
10-04-2014, 01:28 PM
In the recently released first practice video (linked above), I couldn't help but notice the roster breakdowns

White:
Tyus
Quinn
Justice
Amile
Jahlil

Blue:
Rasheed
Matt Jones
Grayson
Semi
Marshall

This indeed shows that Coach K is serious about trying out that Tyus-Quinn backcourt lineup. This also means that the blue team plays three SG's. At least in practice I thought Coach K would put Quinn and Tyus on opposing teams, but that White team suspiciously looks like the most likely starting lineup.

Henderson
10-04-2014, 01:58 PM
I'll leave it to the Moneyball fans to vet the stats. But this team is both talented and deep. The development of individual players will decide the minutes, an unknown variable at this point.

Projecting, I'd say the following players are locks for significant time in the rotation:

Okafor
Jefferson
Cook
T. Jones
Winslow
Sulaimon

Then the others who will earn time, depending on development and game needs:

MP3
M. Jones
Semi
Allen

That's 10 players. And a talented set of 10 at that. Each will get some minutes, but how much depends on them. The depth of the team will be determined by how well the latter four play. The top 6 are likely to shine. If the latter four demonstrate an ability to outclass opponents, the depth of this team could be special. That makes me super curious about how the latter 4 develop. Marshall will get minutes inside no matter what. But I'm looking forward to seeing how Matt Jones and Semi have developed. Grayson Allen and Semi could be men-out in terms of playing time in 2014-15, but they may be significant contributors in the following season.

Questions:

Will Marshall show more than just a space-occupying reliever when Jah needs a blow? It's an intriguing prospect, because folks don't generally expect too much of him. Color that upside potential.

Where the heck is Semi in his development? I just don't know. He's got a man-ball physique; can he realize his potential? Does he have potential? It'd be sad if the answer is no.

Where does Matt Jones fit in?

Is Grayson Allen good? I mean really good? He flies under the radar a bit with this recruiting class, and I'll be curious how he stacks up in NCAA play. Given the stacked roster, he may not get a lot of minutes this year, but I'll be watching to see what his future holds for Duke Basketball.

azzefkram
10-04-2014, 02:04 PM
Just two years ago, four of the top five players in minutes played on Duke's Elite Eight team were guards (Curry, Cook, Sulaimon and Thornton).

Thornton only makes that cut-off because of Kelly's injury. The seventh/eighth guys were Hairston and Amile.


In 2009, five of the top seven were guards -- and the eighth guy (McClure) was pretty much a swing man.

We had a dearth of bigs that year. On the bench was pre-leap Z, Fr Miles, Fr Olek and a walk-on.


In 2008, five of the top seven were guards (almost five of the top six -- Lance Thomas just beat out Nolan Smith for No. 6).

Same problem as 2009.


if DeMarcus Nelson and Gerald Henderson could play serious minute at the 4, so can Winslow (in fact, he's much better equipped to guard the position).

All three could play some 4 but it's not really ideal. All things being equal I think Coach K tends to play seven with one F/C and one G off the bench. Do I wish he played a deeper bench? Sure, but after 30+ years I don't expect it. I am pretty jazzed by Allen's potential but he just doesn't profile as the type of freshman that plays major minutes for Coach K.

gurufrisbee
10-04-2014, 02:39 PM
Since we're all just guessing here anyways, my vote is this rotation looks like a slightly modified version of the last championship team we had.

We really have two areas of focus - frontcourt (2) and backcourt (3).

Back then we only had four guys in the backcourt at all which meant Nolan, Scheyer, and Singler all played 35+. Dawkins was really the only back up for all three (Ryan Kelly playing only like 6 minutes a game as the next option).

This year we have four seeming really good options here in Cook, TJones, Sheed, and Winslow. I think that means you won't see any 35+ guys, but instead Cook and Tyus at around 30 and Sheed in the high 20's with Winslow more like 24ish. Still leaves maybe 8-10 minutes that Allen and MJones will pick up.

As for the front court we were pretty good in going with four and simply rotating two for two with Lance, Zoubek, and the Plumlees. They didn't quite fill out the full 80 as occassionally Singler would slide up, but they mostly did it all.

Okafor and Jefferson are able to handle more than any of those four could that year and I think we'll see them both play high 20's of minutes. But MP3 and Semi I think will pretty exclusively come in for them to spell them and keep our size in the lineup.

I'm going with this to get our 200:

Cook 32
TJones 30
Okafor 28
Jefferson 26
Sheed 26
Winslow 24
MP3 12
Semi 10
Allen 6
MJones 6

Troublemaker
10-04-2014, 02:47 PM
Actually I am not convinced Sage is wrong, and you are only partially right. In the locker room following the Lehigh debacle it got ugly. All managers had to clear the room. Only players and coaches. Losing in the first round to a nobody is unacceptable to K. The standards are too high. Therefore there must be penalties incurred and pain endured, as a reminder, that "thou shalt not allow that to happen again on your watch". Who knows what those penalties are for Mercer, but rest assured there is a price to be paid.

I think the price to be paid is just hard work. The returning players working hard to improve and develop their communication and team defense, and Coach K working hard to tweak his defense and nurture on-court leaders that can make on-the-spot adjustments, something Coach K promised he'd do a better job of. I just think Coach K believes in "collective responsibility" and would not single out veterans for punitive purposes.



I have no doubt all of those vets are highly motivated, highly embarrassed over Mercer, likely improved as players, with growth in maturation, and ready to make amends, but they will have to earn every single second they get on the floor. I think any one or more of the threesome of Amile, Cook, or Rasheed could legitimately make 2nd Team All-ACC, and longshots to make 1st Team All-ACC. I see no chance any of them make any All American team. Meanwhile, Jahlil could certainly make 1st Team All-ACC, and 1st or 2nd Team All America. What I am trying to portray (and maybe not so well, sorry) is all of the veterans will have to bring it all the time, game over game, with no major, extended lapses of bad play to avoid finding a seat next to the walkons and watching a highly talented freshman get minutes. The competition will be fierce, and maybe as Sage suggests, because of Mercer, and other past history, K could very well choose to start the season with the two exhibition games starting 3 or all 4 of the freshman to show the vets starting roles will need to be earned, with everyone starting on a level playing field for spots. Remember Murphy starting his first exhibition game two years in a row over veterans? It did not last of course, but K sent the message nonetheless.

I just think that if Tyus, Justise, and Jahlil continue to wear the white jerseys and end up starting, what we're talking about is that these three freshmen are the only three players on the roster currently projected to be first-round draft picks (Chad Ford, Draft Express). I think having three freshman starters is about their talent, not about sending a message to the vets. I suppose it could be both, but I would argue it's like 99% talent and 1% message. And really, I just think it's 100-0.



"Next Play" is a K staple, but so is "here's to never forgetting Virginia in 83".

Good point! But I don't think in yesterday's first practice, Coach K put up the Mercer score on the Cameron scoreboard like he did at the first practice of the '83-'84 season. For one thing, that would've been awkward for all the freshmen to experience. In the old days when players stayed 4 years, you can do the "never forget" and bring motivation over from one season to the next. In this current era where you basically have a new team every year, it's awkward to do so. I'm not saying the memory bank is flushed clear. The coaches and players who experienced Mercer (and Lehigh two seasons before) will use those memories as motivation to improve themselves, but I don't think it'll be a team-wide mantra and I don't think those disappointments will dictate coaching decisions for this season.


Here's my guess. Coach K had a formative summer. He took a bunch of somewhat unknown and internationally untested US players, mostly young, to the FIBA World Cup, and they kicked the rest of the world's butt. Under his guidance, Kyrie, whom a lot of fans and experts disparage, set the Worlds on fire and was named MVP, and Faried blossomed into an international star and, I'll bet, an NBA all-star.

Now K returns to Duke, and realizes he is coaching a team whose most outstanding accomplishment was being runner-up in the ACC's and whose worst failing was losing in the round of 64 to Mercer -- Mercer??? This ain't much for a coach with two Olympic gold medals, two FIBA championships, four NCAA titles, 11 Final Fours, and 13 ACC championships. In fact, it's a downright embarrassment. He's supposedly the best basketball coach in the world, and his previous college season was a failure.

Why wouldn't he shake things up? He sees some really good freshmen and a bunch of other good players who didn't set the world on fire and were on the court when Duke lost to Mercer. Jump ball!! The freshman are four of the five starters and the rest of you guys can try and beat them out, but we're not putting up with the BS we had last year -- no defense, no leadership, and no performance when things get tough.

Kindly,
Sage

I think Coach K WILL shake things up. But I think he'll shake things up in the realm of defensive tactics, and in him focusing more on developing Amile and Quinn as leaders, and perhaps playing around with the rotation to go deeper. We also know they've already made changes to how they condition in the offseason.

One thing I don't see him changing though is giving all the players a fair shot. They begin the season all at the same starting line. The freshmen don't get to cheat forward just because the veterans had a disappointing past season. Now, the freshmen may use their 1st-round talent to sprint ahead when the gun goes off, but that's another matter altogether.

Troublemaker
10-04-2014, 03:19 PM
More on Quinn being a good guy and his relationship with Tyus: http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/eye-on-college-basketball/24735663/duke-senior-quinn-cook-embracing-the-freshman-set-to-take-his-job

The media likes to find go-to stories for every team, so I anticipate we're going to hear about this story A LOT over the course of this season. Again, much credit to Quinn for his great attitude.

slower
10-04-2014, 07:02 PM
Here are my random observations, based on unreliable YouTube videos and various articles:

1. This year's freshmen just look different than those of previous years. They look tough, serious and like they definitely have a chip on their collective shoulders. I have no way to back that up, of course. But they just look like they're here to get things DONE, without flash or trash talk. It's business, not personal.

2. Semi. I just don't get all the hype about him. Great guy - FANTASTIC guy - but I just don't ever see him becoming a meaningful player. Plus, his shot is very awkward.

3. Grayson. I mean, he could be the next Marty/Olek/Murphy/Taylor King case of over-hype. But if he can shoot, he could be something. And if he's GOOD, he's a mortal lock to be the next great hated Duke player. He certainly checks all the boxes.

4. Justise. Oh, man - I can't wait. He just seems to have a Nate James-esque "junior badass" vibe.

5. Quinn/Sheed. The ultimate fate of the team seems to rest on whether these guys can both get their heads together. If they're on, it could be a huge year. If not...

6. Again, without any factual evidence, I just feel that Amile, Jahlil and Tyus will be solid. Total gut feeling.

7. End result. Who knows? But...this year just gives me a good feeling. As I said, these guys just look like they're here to get the job done with minimal drama and without being intimidated by ANYONE.

gurufrisbee
10-05-2014, 09:33 AM
5. Quinn/Sheed. The ultimate fate of the team seems to rest on whether these guys can both get their heads together. If they're on, it could be a huge year. If not...
.

I imagine we're all feeling this to some degree. Okafor and TJones have so much hype that I think we kind of all expect them to play to all conference levels as freshmen. Amile has been solid and fairly steady for two years. But Cook and Sheed are the elevators. We've seen them play - more than just a game or two - at all conference levels, but we've all seen them play worthy to be benched. I think we all know there is a real possibility that we could have four guys who could make a run 1st team all conference play and any team that had that would be a huge final four/national title contender. Or we could have much less. Much less.

Clay Feet POF
10-05-2014, 03:32 PM
Ridiculously Upbeat



Please put me in the Upbeat camp on this one. I get the feeling this will be a Real Team. Last year we had talent, but not a Team Core. I think we showcase some players at the expense of our defense and it wasn’t loss on the other players.

I believe that changes this year. I’m buying all the hype on the 4 recruits (Especially Tyus and Jahlil) and the more developed skills of the returning players. I really like Tyus passing skills and think they will benefit and encourage players around him. Also he playing the point will help Cook become better defensibly (More time in translating from offence to defense without emotion).

I’m really not concerned with a template for minutes played or who will be All American or All conference or All anything. I’m only concerned with what is working on the court and how to keep it working..

The quality mix of Veterans and incoming Freshmen, I think will Force “K” to expand the rotation to 8-9-10. (Maybe that was behind his comments months ago of Surprises) I hope (Not a Chance) “K” will go to the Line Changes as games allow. Last year we never loss a game when it was used. In my mind there is no better way for a Team to Bond. (Ref LSU Chinese Bandits 58) than have all players involved in meaningful games, great for the players and the team psyche.

There is too much talent on this team not to use it to Bond and Develop player’s skills and the Teams soul.

Can’t wait for this season to start!! LETS GO WE’RE (almost) READY!!

Eakane
10-06-2014, 03:02 PM
Why? He has the size and athleticism. He can't help but have benefited from being on the team last year, at least practice-wise. We really won't need him to shoot much but as the 4th and final big man n the team, there will be games this year where we will really really need him. Plus, I'm not seeing a lot of hype about him. I am seeing a lot of hype about the freshmen, and until proven otherwise, it seems deserving.

[

2. Semi. I just don't get all the hype about him. Great guy - FANTASTIC guy - but I just don't ever see him becoming a meaningful player. Plus, his shot is very awkward.

Eakane
10-06-2014, 03:07 PM
You can't seriously believe that we showcased players last year at the expense of defense. Do you think K would ever make a conscious decision like that? It goes against everything he stands for for the last 30+ years. Hood and Parker started and got a lot of PT because we had no better alternatives. They were both great players and we desperately needed them on teh court as much as possible. Does that mean they were "showcased"?

Ridiculously Upbeat


. I think we showcase some players at the expense of our defense

ChillinDuke
10-06-2014, 11:56 PM
While I know we, as a community, try to find rules and guidelines to predict Coach K's and the team's every move, I find myself wondering are there really rules to be found?

Many examples have direct counter-examples, every argument has an opposing view, and data can be sliced and diced to back up nearly any theory.

I just wonder if K legitimately tools and retools the team as he sees fit, and we spend countless hours trying to make sense of an art that simply isn't scientific.

I dunno. I just don't. And I'm not convinced anybody does.

OK I said my deep thought, so it's time for my shameless plug. I have (still) Big Jah, Amile, Rasheed, and Quinn. Pick one: Justise or Tyus.

- Chillin

Kedsy
10-07-2014, 01:07 AM
While I know we, as a community, try to find rules and guidelines to predict Coach K's and the team's every move, I find myself wondering are there really rules to be found?

Many examples have direct counter-examples, every argument has an opposing view, and data can be sliced and diced to back up nearly any theory.

I just wonder if K legitimately tools and retools the team as he sees fit, and we spend countless hours trying to make sense of an art that simply isn't scientific.

I dunno. I just don't. And I'm not convinced anybody does.

OK I said my deep thought, so it's time for my shameless plug. I have (still) Big Jah, Amile, Rasheed, and Quinn. Pick one: Justise or Tyus.

- Chillin

The staff has been quoted as saying Tyus is starting. So presumably he should be on the left side of your equation.

As for our striving to find "rules and guidelines," I do believe such things legitimately exist. The slicing and dicing is all us; Coach K, for all his protestations of adapting to fit his roster, has been very consistent over the years.

Don't get me wrong, he is an innovator, and he does surprising things from time to time. But the odds are overwhelmingly in favor of him continuing to follow a similar path to that which he has followed almost every single season he's been here.

Ichabod Drain
10-07-2014, 02:24 PM
Not to say it means anything but of the pics and video i have seen of practice so far it appears the white team is made up of Tyus, Quinn, Justise, Amile, and Jah. That leaves Grayson, Matt, Rasheed, Semi, and MP3 on the blue team.

Also a note from an interview with Grayson, seems that have him working on his point guard skills.

Kedsy
10-07-2014, 02:51 PM
Not to say it means anything but of the pics and video i have seen of practice so far it appears the white team is made up of Tyus, Quinn, Justise, Amile, and Jah. That leaves Grayson, Matt, Rasheed, Semi, and MP3 on the blue team.

It will be interesting to see how this develops. When we did the line change thing last year, it totally made sense to have Matt on the first shift and Rasheed on the second shift, because the first team had plenty of scoring with Jabari and Rodney and needed more of a defensive presence, while the second team needed Rasheed's scoring ability to complement Andre, because the other three guys on that shift didn't bring so much on offense.

In a similar vein, if Coach K is considering giving the blue team a decent amount of run, then that squad would need Rasheed's scoring ability, while the white team could use a defensive presence to offset the small and less defensively-minded backcourt of Tyus/Quinn. So the current division of players does make sense on that level. That said, I'm still dubious of the chances of Duke going 9 or 10 deep, in which case it makes less sense, at least to me. I guess we'll have to wait and see how it all plays out.

To the extent that the blue team (as composed above) does get on the floor, it will also be interesting to see which blue team guard steps up and plays point on offense. If Grayson is getting reps as a PG, then that sort of gives us three combo guards plus a stretch four on that unit.

flyingdutchdevil
10-07-2014, 03:14 PM
To the extent that the blue team (as composed above) does get on the floor, it will also be interesting to see which blue team guard steps up and plays point on offense. If Grayson is getting reps as a PG, then that sort of gives us three combo guards plus a stretch four on that unit.

I don't really get the Grayson-at-PG thing at all. If the white line-up is indeed TJ-QC-JW-AJ-JO, then obviously someone needs to play PG on the blue team for practice purposes. But in reality, Duke has two quality PGs that would start for 99% of D1 schools out there (and would start for blue chippers like KU, UCLA, MichSt, etc.). If Cook starts at the 2, then wouldn't he rotate to the 1 once Tyus leaves? The only scenarios that I see Grayson playing the 1 is a) Cook or Tyus are injured, b) Cook and Tyus are in foul trouble, c) Cook and Tyus are actually one human being and we've been mistaking them for two individual players. Why would you take our both? The 1 is Coach K's most important position, and handing the team to an unproven 1 when we have 2 awesome PGs just seems unnecessary.

If Coach K is grooming Grayson to be a future 1, then great! But I'm not sure that will translate to Grayson playing any 1 this year with the two incredible 1s we already have.

MCFinARL
10-07-2014, 03:21 PM
Not to say it means anything but of the pics and video i have seen of practice so far it appears the white team is made up of Tyus, Quinn, Justise, Amile, and Jah. That leaves Grayson, Matt, Rasheed, Semi, and MP3 on the blue team.

Also a note from an interview with Grayson, seems that have him working on his point guard skills.

For what it is worth, it doesn't seem unusual for the Duke coaches to have shooting guards working on their point guard skills. I remember Rasheed saying something similar when he first came in. Realistically, it seems like it would always be useful to have guards improve their point guard skills, for both the team (you never know when you might need to, say, make Jon Scheyer the point guard) and the player (unless you are a consistent lights out shooter, teams at the next level will probably be looking for at least a moderate level of ability to handle the ball in any guard).

Duvall
10-07-2014, 03:31 PM
I don't really get the Grayson-at-PG thing at all. If the white line-up is indeed TJ-QC-JW-AJ-JO, then obviously someone needs to play PG on the blue team for practice purposes. But in reality, Duke has two quality PGs that would start for 99% of D1 schools out there (and would start for blue chippers like KU, UCLA, MichSt, etc.). If Cook starts at the 2, then wouldn't he rotate to the 1 once Tyus leaves? The only scenarios that I see Grayson playing the 1 is a) Cook or Tyus are injured, b) Cook and Tyus are in foul trouble, c) Cook and Tyus are actually one human being and we've been mistaking them for two individual players. Why would you take our both? The 1 is Coach K's most important position, and handing the team to an unproven 1 when we have 2 awesome PGs just seems unnecessary.

If Coach K is grooming Grayson to be a future 1, then great! But I'm not sure that will translate to Grayson playing any 1 this year with the two incredible 1s we already have.

I think you already explained it. Injuries happen, foul trouble happens, and the 2016 season is going to happen.

Kedsy
10-07-2014, 03:35 PM
If Coach K is grooming Grayson to be a future 1, then great! But I'm not sure that will translate to Grayson playing any 1 this year with the two incredible 1s we already have.

Yeah, I don't think there's much chance of Grayson playing PG in 2014-15 (except maybe in garbage time). But since we don't know whether Tyus will still be with us in 2015-16, and recruiting is always an iffy game, I'd expect Rasheed, Matt, and Grayson to all put in some reps at PG.

flyingdutchdevil
10-07-2014, 03:41 PM
Yeah, I don't think there's much chance of Grayson playing PG in 2014-15 (except maybe in garbage time). But since we don't know whether Tyus will still be with us in 2015-16, and recruiting is always an iffy game, I'd expect Rasheed, Matt, and Grayson to all put in some reps at PG.

That makes sense. Grayson is an interesting recruit. Insanely athletic, decent height (although I'm not buying that 6'4". There's a recent video with him and Tyus talking to Hendo. Hendo is a legit 6'5", maybe 6'6". Grayson is considerably shorter), can get to the rim...looks like a legit combo guard. I am still holding on to the Daniel Ewing comparison on offense. No idea on defense.

mattman91
10-07-2014, 03:51 PM
I don't really get the Grayson-at-PG thing at all. If the white line-up is indeed TJ-QC-JW-AJ-JO, then obviously someone needs to play PG on the blue team for practice purposes. But in reality, Duke has two quality PGs that would start for 99% of D1 schools out there (and would start for blue chippers like KU, UCLA, MichSt, etc.). If Cook starts at the 2, then wouldn't he rotate to the 1 once Tyus leaves? The only scenarios that I see Grayson playing the 1 is a) Cook or Tyus are injured, b) Cook and Tyus are in foul trouble, c) Cook and Tyus are actually one human being and we've been mistaking them for two individual players. Why would you take our both? The 1 is Coach K's most important position, and handing the team to an unproven 1 when we have 2 awesome PGs just seems unnecessary.

If Coach K is grooming Grayson to be a future 1, then great! But I'm not sure that will translate to Grayson playing any 1 this year with the two incredible 1s we already have.

Well, coach K doesn't play "positions" :cool::rolleyes:;):o

kAzE
10-07-2014, 03:55 PM
Yeah, I don't think there's much chance of Grayson playing PG in 2014-15 (except maybe in garbage time). But since we don't know whether Tyus will still be with us in 2015-16, and recruiting is always an iffy game, I'd expect Rasheed, Matt, and Grayson to all put in some reps at PG.

I'm surprised we haven't offered another high profile point guard for next year's class. There's a very likely scenario in which both Tyus and Quinn leave the program next year, and we're left with a bunch of combo guards to run the point . . .

Also, I think there's a very real possibility that Sulaimon comes off the bench. He excelled in that role last year as the focal point of the offense for the 2nd unit.

Duvall
10-07-2014, 03:56 PM
Yeah, I don't think there's much chance of Grayson playing PG in 2014-15 (except maybe in garbage time). But since we don't know whether Tyus will still be with us in 2015-16, and recruiting is always an iffy game, I'd expect Rasheed, Matt, and Grayson to all put in some reps at PG.

Plus it's the best, if not only, path to the NBA for Sulaimon and Allen.

flyingdutchdevil
10-07-2014, 04:24 PM
I'm surprised we haven't offered another high profile point guard for next year's class. There's a very likely scenario in which both Tyus and Quinn leave the program next year, and we're left with a bunch of combo guards to run the point . . .

Also, I think there's a very real possibility that Sulaimon comes off the bench. He excelled in that role last year as the focal point of the offense for the 2nd unit.

I think Coach K knows something that we don't about the PG position for 2015-2016. ;)

But I agree, looks risky on the surface. But Coach K loves his PGs. He'll make it work.

Kedsy
10-07-2014, 04:32 PM
I'm surprised we haven't offered another high profile point guard for next year's class. There's a very likely scenario in which both Tyus and Quinn leave the program next year, and we're left with a bunch of combo guards to run the point . . .

You mean, besides Dennis Smith, Jr.? Didn't we hear recently that Coach K was going all in on him and told him he was our only PG priority?

I agree it sounds risky, but Coach K generally knows what he's doing.


Plus it's the best, if not only, path to the NBA for Sulaimon and Allen.

Agreed. Especially for Rasheed.

subzero02
10-07-2014, 05:00 PM
You mean, besides Dennis Smith, Jr.? Didn't we hear recently that Coach K was going all in on him and told him he was our only PG priority?

I agree it sounds risky, but Coach K generally knows what he's doing.



Agreed. Especially for Rasheed.

Are you implying that Allen's 2 guard skills are closer to being NBA level than Sulaimon's?

gumbomoop
10-07-2014, 05:08 PM
I'm surprised we haven't offered another high profile point guard for next year's class. There's a very likely scenario in which both Tyus and Quinn leave the program next year, and we're left with a bunch of combo guards to run the point . . .

Quinn is definitely gone, so the question seems to be whether Tyus leaves, and possibly Rasheed, as well. Sorry for repeating a point I've made several times, but I contend that if both Tyus and Rasheed leave, the likely main PG will be Luke Kennard, whose handle is superior to that of Grayson and Matt.

You're right that Luke is also a combo guard, but his handle is superb.


You mean, besides Dennis Smith, Jr.?

But Smith is class of 2016, so he wouldn't be here for 2015-16 season. It's possible you interpreted kAzE's ref to "next year's class" as class of 2016, but I assume s/he meant class of 2015.

Duvall
10-07-2014, 05:15 PM
Quinn is definitely gone, so the question seems to be whether Tyus leaves, and possibly Rasheed, as well. Sorry for repeating a point I've made several times, but I contend that if both Tyus and Rasheed leave, the likely main PG will be Luke Kennard, whose handle is superior to that of Grayson and Matt.

You're right that Luke is also a combo guard, but his handle is superb.



But Smith is class of 2016, so he wouldn't be here for 2015-16 season. It's possible you interpreted kAzE's ref to "next year's class" as class of 2016, but I assume s/he meant class of 2015.

Right. Duke will definitely need a backup point guard for the 2015-16 season, and may need a starting point guard as well if Tyus Jones enters the draft. Hence the refinement of point skills by the other guards.

coldriver10
10-07-2014, 05:54 PM
Apologies if this was posted elsewhere. Jahlil was named CBSSports.com's Preseason Player of the Year:

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/eye-on-college-basketball/24741976/jahlil-okafor----cbssportscoms-preseason-player-of-the-year

Duvall
10-07-2014, 06:14 PM
Apologies if this was posted elsewhere. Jahlil was named CBSSports.com's Preseason Player of the Year:

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/eye-on-college-basketball/24741976/jahlil-okafor----cbssportscoms-preseason-player-of-the-year

A clear sign that Okafor will match the accomplishments of previous CBSSports.com picks Harrison Barnes, Cody Zeller and Andrew Wiggins.

mr. synellinden
10-07-2014, 07:12 PM
Apologies if this was posted elsewhere. Jahlil was named CBSSports.com's Preseason Player of the Year:

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/eye-on-college-basketball/24741976/jahlil-okafor----cbssportscoms-preseason-player-of-the-year

And Tyus is a pre-season third team all-American.

Paige also on the first team.

Kedsy
10-07-2014, 09:56 PM
Quinn is definitely gone, so the question seems to be whether Tyus leaves, and possibly Rasheed, as well. Sorry for repeating a point I've made several times, but I contend that if both Tyus and Rasheed leave, the likely main PG will be Luke Kennard, whose handle is superior to that of Grayson and Matt.

You're right that Luke is also a combo guard, but his handle is superb.

We'll see. First of all, at this point I'd be surprised if Rasheed leaves after this season. Second, even if Rasheed and Tyus go, Matt will be a junior, and in addition to being more physically ready than a freshman, he will have had two full seasons handling the ball against college competition while Luke Kennard will have had none.


But Smith is class of 2016, so he wouldn't be here for 2015-16 season. It's possible you interpreted kAzE's ref to "next year's class" as class of 2016, but I assume s/he meant class of 2015.

You are correct about my apparently erroneous interpretation.


Are you implying that Allen's 2 guard skills are closer to being NBA level than Sulaimon's?

No, I'm not. In large part because Grayson clearly won't be ready to go pro anytime soon. But Grayson is supposedly a "wow" athlete, while Rasheed really isn't, so if/when Grayson becomes ready for the NBA, my guess is the scouts and coaches would be more willing to take a chance on him as an undersized 2-guard than they would on Rasheed.

Newton_14
10-07-2014, 09:56 PM
The staff has been quoted as saying Tyus is starting. So presumably he should be on the left side of your equation.

As for our striving to find "rules and guidelines," I do believe such things legitimately exist. The slicing and dicing is all us; Coach K, for all his protestations of adapting to fit his roster, has been very consistent over the years.

Don't get me wrong, he is an innovator, and he does surprising things from time to time. But the odds are overwhelmingly in favor of him continuing to follow a similar path to that which he has followed almost every single season he's been here.
Until I see something better, I will go to my grave fully believing the single greatest coaching job ever in college hoops is the last 10 games of 2001. The huge risk to sit a senior, start a freshman, turn Casey into a dance partner (to screen everywhere out top for Shane), and totally reinvent the offense in 4 days is just innovation to the highest degree. I was born in 1966 so I can't compare what Texas Western did in beating Kentucky. The old timers will have to compare the two, because I can't. The 9 game run in 1983 by Valvano and State was impressive also, but nothing touches 2001 in my book.

It was far deeper than just starting Duhon and turning Nate into a 6th man. K changed the entire offense, the pace of play, and adjusted the defense to boot. Then won 10 straight to capture the ACC Regular Season (tying for that honor), the ACC Tourney, Regional Final, and National Title. Beating unc twice, a great Maryland team twice, and of course coming back from 23 down in the final four to beat that Maryland team. Finishing off with a 10 point win against a great Arizona team.

2010 deserves mention as well. Nothing beats 01 for me.

roywhite
10-07-2014, 10:32 PM
Quinn is definitely gone, so the question seems to be whether Tyus leaves, and possibly Rasheed, as well. Sorry for repeating a point I've made several times, but I contend that if both Tyus and Rasheed leave, the likely main PG will be Luke Kennard, whose handle is superior to that of Grayson and Matt.

You're right that Luke is also a combo guard, but his handle is superb.




We'll see. First of all, at this point I'd be surprised if Rasheed leaves after this season. Second, even if Rasheed and Tyus go, Matt will be a junior, and in addition to being more physically ready than a freshman, he will have had two full seasons handling the ball against college competition while Luke Kennard will have had none.



Should we be left without a "true" PG and the team depends on Luke or Matt Jones or Grayson Allen, who better to help make that situation work than Asst. Coach Jon Scheyer?

Wander
10-08-2014, 12:48 AM
A clear sign that Okafor will match the accomplishments of previous CBSSports.com picks Harrison Barnes, Cody Zeller and Andrew Wiggins.

Is this sarcastic? Zeller and Wiggins had excellent college seasons in those two years, even if they didn't win NPOY.