The ACC: Week 3

[Tappan Zee Devil]

I'll start it this week by posting this short article on BC honoring "The Man In The Red Bandana".

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2194205-boston-college-to-wear-red-bandana-uniforms-to-honor-911-hero

Welles Crowther was also a volunteer fireman in Nyack and one of two people from my church to die at the World Trade Center that day.

[Olympic Fan]

Not a lot of exciting games this week for the ACC -- but a lot that may be competitive.

Keep in mind that the ACC is coming off an 11-0 Saturday (the winningest day in conference history). The league is 20-3 against outside completion over all. That might not be quite as impressive as it looks since 11 of the wins have come over FCS opponents (although those aren't always guaranteed). The ACC is 9-3 against FBS competition and 2-2 against the other power five conferences.

One conference game this week: Louisville at Virginia. The Cavs have been better than expected, but their schedule is a killer. Next week they fly to BYU. Louisville has looked great so far -- good enough to challenge FSU in the Atlantic Division?

Two ACC teams will take on power five conference opponents:

-- Southern Cal visits BC. It would take a miracle for the Eagles to pull this one out.

-- Kansas at Duke: The Devils are favored but the line has been jumping all over the place. During one 12 hour period earlier in the week, it fluctuated between Duke giving 20 and Duke giving 14.5 and back up to Duke giving 17.5.

The ACC really needs Duke to win to keep its record against the power conferences at the .500 point.

The other seven games involving ACC games are against "the other five" FBS leagues. Several are real threats for the ACC. My ranking of the safest wins to the most dangerous losses:

-- Pitt at FIU. Florida International isn't as tough as the team Duke struggled to beat on the road in 2011. Not sure they are as good as the team Duke blew out at home in the 2012 opener. And Pitt is definitely better than the 2011 Blue Devils.

-- Arkansas State at Miami -- The Red Wolves aren't bad -- as they showed in a 34-19 loss at Tennessee last week. Very good offense, but they don't have the defense to stop Duke Johnson or the 'Canes.

-- Georgia Southern at Georgia Tech -- don't be fooled by GSU's 83 points against Savannah State last week -- Savannah State is hopeless. Georgia Southern does have a great running game. They should have beaten NC State in week one. Still, a game that Georgia Tech should manage.

Those three are pretty sure wins. Now it gets tough:

-- East Carolina at Virginia Tech: Okay, VPI looked pretty tough winning at Ohio State. But ECU has won in Blacksburg not to long ago. Last season, VPI pulled out a 15-10 thriller in Greenville. A veteran ECU team with a good quarterback, coming off a tough loss at South Carolina. They won't be intimidated. I like VPI in this one, but it's not a lock.

-- Syracuse at Central Michigan: Not sold on the Orange after their OT home win over Villanova. And CMU is coming off a road win at Purdue. A tough one in Mt. Pleasant for the 'Cuse. Terrell Hunt better leave his boxing gloves at home.

-- N.C. State at South Florida. The Wolfpack made big strides between week one (when they were lucky to edge Georgia Southern) and week two (a fairly solid victory over Old Dominion). South Florida is coming off a narrow loss on the road at Maryland. The Pack is favored, but not by much.

I rate one game (other than BC-Southern Cal) as an almost certain loss:

-- Wake Forest at Utah State. USU is not great (lost 38-7 at Tennessee; routed Idaho State), but this Wake team is not ready for this kind of test on the road.

So I've got the ACC with four probable wins (Duke, Pitt, Miami, Georgia Tech) and two probable losses (Boston College, Wake Forest). I think the league should win two of the three tossup games. That would give us a 6-3 week for 26-6 overall ... 15-6 vs. FBS ... 3-3 vs. the power five

[OldPhiKap]

Pirates pounding the Hokies in Blacksburg.

[Wander]

Pirates pounding the Hokies in Blacksburg.

Virginia Tech following up the road Ohio State win with a home loss to ECU would be the least surprising thing that happens in college football all season.

[OldPhiKap]

Virginia Tech following up the road Ohio State win with a home loss to ECU would be the least surprising thing that happens in college football all season.

GSouthern looking good late at GTech too. Ted Roof's defense collapsing.

[OldPhiKap]

Nice buckle down by GT.

[Tripping William]

Virginia Tech following up the road Ohio State win with a home loss to ECU would be the least surprising thing that happens in college football all season.

I'm an ACC homer, except when it comes to the Hokies. BWAAAHAAAHAAAA! ARRRRR, Pirates!

[OldPhiKap]

Coastal:

UVa looks much improved.

VTech -- who knows. Obviously dangerous, obviously inconsistent.

GT-- not sure. Georgia Southern is a very good program (and not just starting with winning at Florida last year) -- really hard to say.

Pitt -- nice rally, kinda like us at Troy. I think they are division contenders.

Miami -- took care of business today.

UNC -- go to Hell, cheating bastages.

Duke -- best coach in the division. If we stay healthy, we are in the thick of it again.


Much more competitive than last year top to bottom. And I think we are in the thick of it. LGD!

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

BC taking it to USC!!!

[TruBlu]

Bye covered the spread against formerly top 25 over-ranked UNC. Some questionable calls late in the game allowed UNC to mount a furious
comeback. ACC commish Swofford was seen handing the refs their under-table pay raise after the game.

UNC "Players of the Game" to be announced later, after the day's police reports have been edited to show absolutely no wrong doing ever by anyone wearing a light blue uniform.

"Bye Champions" billboards currently being designed.

[Olympic Fan]

Better week than I expected --- no way I thought BC could hang with Southern Cal, much less beat them.

Pitt recovered from a nightmare start (down 16-0) to win going away. Syracuse and NC State won MUCH more easily on the road than I thought possible. Miami took care of business. And, of course, Duke coasted.

The real heartstopper was Georgia Tech, which blew a big halftime lead against Georgia Southern ... then pulled it out in the final seconds.

Virginia Tech's loss to ECU was disappointing, but not surprising. Wake Forest's loss to Utah State was actually a surprisingly strong showing for the Deacs.

A 7-2 week OOC (I predicted 6-3). That's 27-5 OOC for the season ... 16-5 against FBS and 4-2 against the power five conferences.

PS Another nightmare weekend for the Big Ten -- Maryland lost to West Virginia; Indiana lost to Bowling Green; Iowa lost to Iowa State; Minnesota lost to TCU; Illinois lost to Washington; Purdue lost to Notre Dame. The only wins OOC were Nebraska over Fresno State; Ohio State over Kent State; and Michigan over Miami of Ohio. Penn State barely edged Rutgers in a conference game.

[Wander]

PS Another nightmare weekend for the Big Ten -- Maryland lost to West Virginia; Indiana lost to Bowling Green; Iowa lost to Iowa State; Minnesota lost to TCU; Illinois lost to Washington; Purdue lost to Notre Dame. The only wins OOC were Nebraska over Fresno State; Ohio State over Kent State; and Michigan over Miami of Ohio. Penn State barely edged Rutgers in a conference game.

I believe the Big 10 is now 1-10 against the other Big 5 + ND conferences. Probably not quite as bad as it looks, with Michigan State and Wisconsin (I think their two best teams) having their huge nonconference games against great opponents on the road, but still.

[arnie]

I believe the Big 10 is now 1-10 against the other Big 5 + ND conferences. Probably not quite as bad as it looks, with Michigan State and Wisconsin (I think their two best teams) having their huge nonconference games against great opponents on the road, but still.

Of course, BIG? only considers this the preseason. Rose Bowl only thing that matters. Maybe realignment with the 4 power conferences will occur - absorb a couple of BIG teams, BYU, ND, etc and have the desired 4-16 symmetry. Works for everyone since BIG never wanted a playoff.

[mgtr]

Of course, BIG? only considers this the preseason. Rose Bowl only thing that matters.

Right, the Rose Bowl is the true measure of the BIG? greatness. They have won a total of 3 out of the last 15 games. I guess due to changing rules, they have not played in all those games. But, the BIG? won last year, maybe that is the only game that counts.

[Papa John]

PS Another nightmare weekend for the Big Ten -- Maryland lost to West Virginia; Indiana lost to Bowling Green; Iowa lost to Iowa State; Minnesota lost to TCU; Illinois lost to Washington; Purdue lost to Notre Dame. The only wins OOC were Nebraska over Fresno State; Ohio State over Kent State; and Michigan over Miami of Ohio. Penn State barely edged Rutgers in a conference game.

Wait, you don't mean that WSJ "powerhouse" Indiana program... No way they lost to a mid-major. After all, they are on the powerhouse end of the spectrum... ;)

This means that Nebraska and PSU hold the B1G's slim hopes of making the inaugural playoff...

[Wander]

This means that Nebraska and PSU hold the B1G's slim hopes of making the inaugural playoff...

People are burying the BIG? a little too early in regards to the playoff, it's far from impossible that a 1 loss team could make it. After all, to find a 1 loss BIG? team that made the final BCS top 4 (which I know isn't the selection criteria, but as a proxy), you have to go all the way back to... last season.

[Olympic Fan]

People are burying the BIG? a little too early in regards to the playoff, it's far from impossible that a 1 loss team could make it. After all, to find a 1 loss BIG? team that made the final BCS top 4 (which I know isn't the selection criteria, but as a proxy), you have to go all the way back to... last season.

I'm burying the Big Ten ...

Yes, Michigan State or Wisconsin could win out in the league and finish 12-1. But that 12-1 would be at the end of the one-loss line.

I do think a one loss team or two or three will be in the playoffs. But Mich State and Wisconsin lost their high profile OOC games (fairly decisively) and they ain't going to be given much credit for beating up on a really soft Big Ten. Yeah, Auburn got in the playoff last year with one loss, but that was in the SEC.

Look at it this way. Ahead of the Big Ten champ will be behind (1) the SEC champ (no ifs and or buts) ... a one loss Oregon ... a one loss Oklahoma ... a one loss Florida State (unless the one loss is in the ACC title game); a one-loss Notre Dame and the second one loss SEC team (if it's Auburn, LSU, Georgia or Texas A&M).

Any of these that finish with one loss is going to be ahead of the Big 10 champ. Unless, of course, the Big Ten champ is an unbeaten Penn State or Nebraska.

[Wander]

Look at it this way. Ahead of the Big Ten champ will be behind (1) the SEC champ (no ifs and or buts) ... a one loss Oregon ... a one loss Oklahoma ... a one loss Florida State (unless the one loss is in the ACC title game); a one-loss Notre Dame and the second one loss SEC team (if it's Auburn, LSU, Georgia or Texas A&M).


I absolutely agree that these teams would be ahead of a 1-loss Big Ten champ, but it is a realistic possibility that at least three of Oregon, FSU, Oklahoma, and Notre Dame all finish with 2 or more losses.

[Bob Green]

This week's stats are interesting:

http://www.theacc.com/#!/stats?sport=m-footbl

In the "Scoring Defense" category, Duke is #1 at 11 ppg while Carolina is dead last at 28 ppg.

[Scorp4me]

Early in the season and I know our competition hasn't been the strongest, but it's still amazing to see the number of categories Duke is at or near the top in. It's a truly impressive change from years past!

[devildeac]

Early in the season and I know our competition hasn't been the strongest, but it's still amazing to see the number of categories Duke is at or near the top in. It's a truly impressive change from years past!

Yep. Not long ago, we were giving up 24 points (or was it 28?) points to Elon and losing to Richmond.

[nocilla]

I'm burying the Big Ten ...

Yes, Michigan State or Wisconsin could win out in the league and finish 12-1. But that 12-1 would be at the end of the one-loss line.

I do think a one loss team or two or three will be in the playoffs. But Mich State and Wisconsin lost their high profile OOC games (fairly decisively) and they ain't going to be given much credit for beating up on a really soft Big Ten. Yeah, Auburn got in the playoff last year with one loss, but that was in the SEC.

Look at it this way. Ahead of the Big Ten champ will be behind (1) the SEC champ (no ifs and or buts) ... a one loss Oregon ... a one loss Oklahoma ... a one loss Florida State (unless the one loss is in the ACC title game); a one-loss Notre Dame and the second one loss SEC team (if it's Auburn, LSU, Georgia or Texas A&M).

Any of these that finish with one loss is going to be ahead of the Big 10 champ. Unless, of course, the Big Ten champ is an unbeaten Penn State or Nebraska.

I too think the BigTen is done, but just to play devil's advocate; What if Oregon and Mich St both win out? Then you would have a Big Ten Champ with only one loss which was on the road to an undefeated team. Maybe all the other Big Ten OOC losses still bring them down but I think in that scenario they could at least make an argument. I guess they will still be behind the other conference winners though.

[Olympic Fan]

I too think the BigTen is done, but just to play devil's advocate; What if Oregon and Mich St both win out? Then you would have a Big Ten Champ with only one loss which was on the road to an undefeated team. Maybe all the other Big Ten OOC losses still bring them down but I think in that scenario they could at least make an argument. I guess they will still be behind the other conference winners though.

There are five major conferences (plus Notre Dame) in the mix for four playoff spots.

That means that by definition, one power conference -- at least -- is going to be left out. Notre Dame finishes 11-1, it's likely to be two conference champs. If the SEC has an 11-1 second-place team, it's possible that another conference could get bumped.

Right now, the Big Ten is at the bottom of the power conference standings -- and it ain't even close. Yeah, there are scenarios that could put Michigan State or Wisconsin in the mux, but it's an extreme longshot. More likely that Nebraska or Penn State makes it through unbeaten and that ain't likely either.

PS The really interesting situation would be if BYU makes it unbeaten against a very suspect schedule.

[Wander]

There are five major conferences (plus Notre Dame) in the mix for four playoff spots.

That means that by definition, one power conference -- at least -- is going to be left out. Notre Dame finishes 11-1, it's likely to be two conference champs. If the SEC has an 11-1 second-place team, it's possible that another conference could get bumped.

I completely agree with your order of who's in line for the playoffs, I just think you're overestimating the chances of all those teams finishing with 0 or 1 losses. Notre Dame's chance is so small that I don't even think they're worth mentioning quite yet. The Pac-12 has enough good teams such that the champion could easily have 2 losses. I do think the most likely scenario in the end is 2 SEC teams, the Pac-12 champion, and Oklahoma. But, if you could somehow guarantee me that Michigan State finishes 12-1, I'd say they'd have about a 40% chance of making the playoffs.

Nebraska finishing undefeated is definitely not more likely than Michigan State or Wisconsin finishing 12-1 and making it, though. They have road games at MSU and Wisc, and needed a last minute touchdown to escape their 1-AA foe. They're more likely to finish with 5 losses than 0. Penn State has a higher chance than Nebraska, I guess, though if there's any karma in the world, they won't win another game for a few years, and I don't think they're as good as MSU or Wisc.

Again, just remember that LAST YEAR the Big 10 was the worst of the five conferences, Michigan State lost to their only good non-conference opponent, finished 12-1... and were in the top 4 before the postseason.

Edit: I forgot about BYU, which is, as you say, an interesting case. I honestly don't know what the committee would do with them. Ultimately, I think it would just show that any playoff smaller than 8 teams is absurd.

[Papa John]

I completely agree with your order of who's in line for the playoffs, I just think you're overestimating the chances of all those teams finishing with 0 or 1 losses. Notre Dame's chance is so small that I don't even think they're worth mentioning quite yet. The Pac-12 has enough good teams such that the champion could easily have 2 losses. I do think the most likely scenario in the end is 2 SEC teams, the Pac-12 champion, and Oklahoma. But, if you could somehow guarantee me that Michigan State finishes 12-1, I'd say they'd have about a 40% chance of making the playoffs.

Nebraska finishing undefeated is definitely not more likely than Michigan State or Wisconsin finishing 12-1 and making it, though. They have road games at MSU and Wisc, and needed a last minute touchdown to escape their 1-AA foe. They're more likely to finish with 5 losses than 0. Penn State has a higher chance than Nebraska, I guess, though if there's any karma in the world, they won't win another game for a few years, and I don't think they're as good as MSU or Wisc.

Again, just remember that LAST YEAR the Big 10 was the worst of the five conferences, Michigan State lost to their only good non-conference opponent, finished 12-1... and were in the top 4 before the postseason.

Edit: I forgot about BYU, which is, as you say, an interesting case. I honestly don't know what the committee would do with them. Ultimately, I think it would just show that any playoff smaller than 8 teams is absurd.

Notre Dame is currently undefeated, so at the moment their chances are a heck of a lot better than either Michigan State or Wisconsin. You also conspicuously forgot to include in your mix the ACC, which includes the reigning national champion (you know, the team that has the reigning Heisman trophy winner at QB?). Sure, they haven't looked very sharp early on, but it's probably a good bet that they might be one of the four... It's certainly a better bet at the moment than putting your money on any team from the B1G.

Look, I agree that there's a lot of football left to play out yet, and that theoretically MSU and Wisconsin could find their way back into the mix. Let's just say that I think the chance is so small that it's kinda not worth mentioning... If I had to predict right now, I'd go with FSU, Oregon, and two of Alabama, Texas A&M, and Oklahoma.

[Wander]

Notre Dame is currently undefeated, so at the moment their chances are a heck of a lot better than either Michigan State or Wisconsin.

No, they aren't. The current odds have Notre Dame as SLIGHTLY more likely than Michigan State to win the national championship, and I'll respectfully assert that this is a case of Notre Dame getting slightly inflated odds due to being a big name, and that Michigan State is actually more likely to make the playoffs than Notre Dame. Have you looked at the schedules?



You also conspicuously forgot to include in your mix the ACC, which includes the reigning national champion (you know, the team that has the reigning Heisman trophy winner at QB?). Sure, they haven't looked very sharp early on, but it's probably a good bet that they might be one of the four... It's certainly a better bet at the moment than putting your money on any team from the B1G.

I didn't forget, I said I agreed with Oly's order. FSU would be ahead of MSU or Wisc, if it came down to that. It's just that my guess right now is SEC/SEC/Pac12/Big12, that's all.

All I'm saying is that it's so early in the season, that it's silly to say any team ranked 11th in the country has no realistic shot at making it into the field of four, even if their conference is performing poorly.

[Papa John]

No, they aren't.

Odds are relevant for gambling, not the purposes we're discussing here. At 3-0, Notre Dame remains in the hunt, albeit with a bear of a schedule ahead. At 2-1 with a blowout loss in their premier out-of-conference game, playing in a conference that has performed abysmally against the other major conferences and Notre Dame, Michigan State is effectively out of the conversation. Put another way, one team holds their fate in their own hands, the other will require a ton of bad fortune to befall about a dozen other teams to get back into the discussion.



All I'm saying is that it's so early in the season, that it's silly to say any team ranked 11th in the country has no realistic shot at making it into the field of four, even if their conference is performing poorly.

Their conference is performing abysmally, and they've pretty much completed the bulk of their OOC slate, so they can't really improve vis a vis the other conferences. Barring a complete implosion of the other 4 major conferences, the B1G playoff hopes basically rest on the shoulders of Nebraska and Penn State.

[nocilla]

Their conference is performing abysmally, and they've pretty much completed the bulk of their OOC slate, so they can't really improve vis a vis the other conferences. Barring a complete implosion of the other 4 major conferences, the B1G playoff hopes basically rest on the shoulders of Nebraska and Penn State.

We've seen this before though haven't we? If a team that is currently ranked #11 wins the rest of their games, regardless of who they are playing, they will inadvertently keep moving up as teams ahead of them lose games. Now maybe they don't make it all the way into the top 4 this year, but I'm pretty sure it has happened before. We know that a loss late in the season hurts a team a lot more than a loss early in the season does. Right now, me and lots of other sports writers can say that a one loss MSU team shouldn't be ahead of any other one loss power 5 team. But will everyone remember that late in the season when one of the top 4 teams losses and MSU is sitting there at #5 or #6? The hope is that the selection committee remembers, but I guess we'll see.

[bob blue devil]

Odds are relevant for gambling, not the purposes we're discussing here. At 3-0, Notre Dame remains in the hunt, albeit with a bear of a schedule ahead. At 2-1 with a blowout loss in their premier out-of-conference game, playing in a conference that has performed abysmally against the other major conferences and Notre Dame, Michigan State is effectively out of the conversation. Put another way, one team holds their fate in their own hands, the other will require a ton of bad fortune to befall about a dozen other teams to get back into the discussion.
.

I agree with Wander and respectfully disagree with you here.

Given your original comment referred to "chances", Vegas odds are certainly a relevant data point (if you actually believe your assessment of chances are meaningfully more accurate than Vegas odds, well you should take up sports betting...).

Further, controlling your own destiny is not the same thing as having a better chance. Yes, ND controls its own destiny, but it's odds of actually losing zero or one of those games is slim. I do agree that MSUs odds are likewise slim. Whereas NDs odds are slim because they are unlikely to get the wins, MSUs odds are slim because they are unlikely to get the help they need.