Brandon Ingram Recruiting Thread

[Newton_14]

Brandon just cut his list to 6 with all 3 Triangle Schools on the list. Could get interesting. Use this thread to discuss his recruitment.

Here's the link to the front page article :Ingram cuts list to 6 (http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/2014/9/1/6092243/ingram-cuts-to-six-including-all-three-triangle-acc-schools)

[gocanes0506]

Nc state is an interesting option for him. A chance to play 25-30 minutes a game and have the ball ALOT!

Everyone else is the powerhouse. school I'd expect. He'll have to choose between being the number 1 guy or being on a team. If he wants to be on a great tram then he can eliminate UNX. It'll come down to duke, uk and ku to me. I think uk and ku offer more PT because duke has Winston to play in the 3 slot

[CDu]

Nc state is an interesting option for him. A chance to play 25-30 minutes a game and have the ball ALOT!

Everyone else is the powerhouse. school I'd expect. He'll have to choose between being the number 1 guy or being on a team. If he wants to be on a great tram then he can eliminate UNX. It'll come down to duke, uk and ku to me. I think uk and ku offer more PT because duke has Winston to play in the 3 slot

Jameis Winston? :)

[BD80]

Jameis Winston? :)

There's video proof that he's mastered the crab(leg) step

[tommy]

I know that some out there on the internets, if not expressly here on DBR, were concerned that with Brandon setting up his in-home visits -- with UNC, NC State, Kentucky, Kansas, and UCLA -- where was Duke? No reason for concern on that front, in that Duke was in-home with Brandon a couple of months ago. Already done.

I checked in with the Ingram camp last night. While I still think ultimately this is going to come down to Duke and UNC, I must say that I think there is a greater likelihood than I did a few weeks ago that Kentucky and/or Kansas is going to be a serious contender. I still think UCLA is just too far away for Brandon, especially since his older brother had a not-great experience as a freshman athlete going far from home. The Ingrams are talking about the upcoming visits to both Kentucky and Kansas (and UCLA for that matter) as making sure Brandon is exposed to all these great programs and what they have to offer, so as to ensure that when it does come to decision time, he'll be working with the most complete information possible. Sounds reasonable to me. But there have been lots of kids and families who have been wowed by the Midnight Madness shows put on at Rupp and Allen, along with the other things those programs have to offer. It's not like there's no chance it has that type of impact on Ingram. It could.

Like I say, until he makes those two visits and I check in with them about how they went, and I'm told that he really was impressed in a big way, I still feel that it's going to end up being Duke or UNC. But his doing the in-homes with them next week, and then taking those visits to UK and KU for Midnight Madness (or whatever they call it) is making me a little nervous.

Decision is still slated for no later than Thanksgiving. Probably a little earlier.

[flyingdutchdevil]

...except that he needs to change his diet. The upside of committing early is that coaches can provide you with legitimate advice about gaining good weight.

Ingram may be the skinniest recruit I have ever seen. With all his talent, I definitely still want the dude. But he needs to eat a cheeseburger or two a day.

He makes Tayshaun Prince look like Dwight Howard.

[Bluegrassdevil1]

...except that he needs to change his diet. The upside of committing early is that coaches can provide you with legitimate advice about gaining good weight.

Ingram may be the skinniest recruit I have ever seen. With all his talent, I definitely still want the dude. But he needs to eat a cheeseburger or two a day.

He makes Tayshaun Prince look like Dwight Howard.

Personally, I would be quite happy with Duke having a Tayshaun Prince "like" player on the team. There is also the reasonably skinny fellow in OKC that everyone seems to think is having a promising career, and that fine UCLA grad that did well in Indiana, especially against the Knicks.

[gocanes0506]

Jameis Winston? :)

Watching ESPN and typing is not always helpful. Thinking Winslow and typed Winston because that is what I heard on the TV.

[MCFinARL]

Watching ESPN and typing is not always helpful. Thinking Winslow and typed Winston because that is what I heard on the TV.

Well, we will just have to add Winston to that alternate-universe Duke team--the one with Tyler Thorton, Josh Harrison, JJ Reddick, etc. :D

[flyingdutchdevil]

Well, we will just have to add Winston to that alternate-universe Duke team--the one with Tyler Thorton, Josh Harrison, JJ Reddick, etc. :D

Don't forget Sheldon Williams, John Scheyer, and my personal favorite, Greg Zoubek.

[MCFinARL]

Don't forget Sheldon Williams, John Scheyer, and my personal favorite, Greg Zoubek.

Right--Greg Zoubek is definitely the best.

[jimsumner]

Don't forget Sheldon Williams, John Scheyer, and my personal favorite, Greg Zoubek.

And Shavlick Randolph and Nick Horvoth.

[Henderson]

I hate the off season.

[tommy]

In addition to his upcoming visits for Midnight Madness to Kentucky and Kansas, Ingram is now also going to take a return visit to UCLA. The first visit they had was very rushed, basically an on-the-way-to-the-airport deal, and they want to take a longer look.

I'm not worried about UCLA though. It's just too far away for him and his family. He can get what he's looking for from schools closer to home. Kentucky, though, continues to be a growing concern.

[subzero02]

And Shavlick Randolph and Nick Horvoth.

Billy Packer always gave Shawn Battier and Casey Saunders high praises. I still must admit that my personal favorites are JJ Reddick and Tyler Thorton.

[FerryFor50]

Billy Packer always gave Shawn Battier and Casey Saunders high praises. I still must admit that my personal favorites are JJ Reddick and Tyler Thorton.

Or Sheldon Williams.

[jimsumner]

Billy Packer always gave Shawn Battier and Casey Saunders high praises. I still must admit that my personal favorites are JJ Reddick and Tyler Thorton.

Hopefully Duke will sign Derryck Thornton, so the tradition can continue.

And I can see lots of options for Ingram. Brandan. Brandyn. Brandown. Engram. Inngram.

[gam7]

Ingram kind of reminds me of a skinnier version of Sam Perkins. Kind of sleepy eyes, mellow demeanor. Long arms. Playing style (including shooting range).

[jimsumner]

Ingram kind of reminds me of a skinnier version of Sam Perkins. Kind of sleepy eyes, mellow demeanor. Long arms. Playing style (including shooting range).

If Ingram wants to play on the perimeter, he might not like the comparison.

Physically he reminds me a bit of Tony Lang. But Lang also played inside in college. Mike Dunleavy might be the closest Duke analog, at least in recent years.

[BD80]

If Ingram wants to play on the perimeter, he might not like the comparison.

Physically he reminds me a bit of Tony Lang. But Lang also played inside in college. Mike Dunleavy might be the closest Duke analog, at least in recent years.

Would 6'7" Penny Hardaway be an apt comparison? (Remember Penny, the guy traded for #1 pick Chris Webber? The guy MJ said could take up his mantle?)

[DukeRocks12]

Saw on Zags Bragg, Brown, and Ingram is thinking about packaging. Is Duke still the leader for Ingram Tommy?

[tommy]

Saw on Zags Bragg, Brown, and Ingram is thinking about packaging. Is Duke still the leader for Ingram Tommy?

I don't know who ever declared that Duke is "the leader" for Ingram. I never did. I've always said I thought in the end it would come down to Duke and UNC, but I've felt Kentucky to be making a significant move lately, and Kansas trying to as well.

Brandon and seemingly the rest of the world of uncommitted elite players in the Class of 2015 -- and a bunch of '16's too -- were at Kansas this past weekend, and most of them, and a bunch of others, will be at Kentucky next weekend for their big show. I'm sure the guys were feeling pretty giddy, and they will again in Lexington. I may check in with the Ingram camp this week, or it may make more sense to wait until after the Kentucky weekend to take their temperature.

[DukeRocks12]

I don't know who ever declared that Duke is "the leader" for Ingram. I never did. I've always said I thought in the end it would come down to Duke and UNC, but I've felt Kentucky to be making a significant move lately, and Kansas trying to as well.

Brandon and seemingly the rest of the world of uncommitted elite players in the Class of 2015 -- and a bunch of '16's too -- were at Kansas this past weekend, and most of them, and a bunch of others, will be at Kentucky next weekend for their big show. I'm sure the guys were feeling pretty giddy, and they will again in Lexington. I may check in with the Ingram camp this week, or it may make more sense to wait until after the Kentucky weekend to take their temperature.

Thanks Tommy, I wasn't referring to you. I was basing off the 247 crystal ball. Sorry for the misunderstanding. Do you know or think Brandon playing on the Adidas AAU circuit will impact his decision at all? IF, the package deal come to fruition, I'm afraid of Kansas because of the Adidas ties. I heard the Adidas ties are pretty strong with Jaylen Brown and Carlton Bragg but not sure about Brandon. But I guess even if the Adidas ties are strong, why would Brandon go to the same school to back up Jaylen Brown? There might be more smoke than substance here.

[Dukehky]

I am not totally sure there is room for him to play if he committed to Duke. Of course, he could earn his way into minutes, which would be great. I don't think he will commit until after this season, nor should he, especially if he really likes Duke. See if any of our 2/3 guys leave.

If he had to go somewhere else, I'd like to lose him to someone outside the conference because I think Ingram will be a strong college player

[tommy]

I am not totally sure there is room for him to play if he committed to Duke. Of course, he could earn his way into minutes, which would be great. I don't think he will commit until after this season, nor should he, especially if he really likes Duke. See if any of our 2/3 guys leave.

If he had to go somewhere else, I'd like to lose him to someone outside the conference because I think Ingram will be a strong college player

Brandon's been saying for awhile that he was going to commit before his senior season started, which would mean October. Certainly no later than Thanksgiving or so. That can change, of course, but I haven't heard anything yet about the timetable changing.

[Dukehky]

Brandon's been saying for awhile that he was going to commit before his senior season started, which would mean October. Certainly no later than Thanksgiving or so. That can change, of course, but I haven't heard anything yet about the timetable changing.

If Ingram comes, that's great, but our class for next year is totally fine with me with Kennard, Jeter, and Obi

[tommy]

If Ingram comes, that's great, but our class for next year is totally fine with me with Kennard, Jeter, and Obi

I think there are many who feel the same way.

Which is a good thing since, as time goes on and as I learn additional information, I'm feeling less and less confident that Ingram ends up in Durham. They had a terrific weekend in Lawrence, and you just know they will in Lexington this coming weekend too. I try not to be in the prediction business too much, but while I'm not ready to say that Duke (and Carolina for that matter) are out of it, this is trending in the wrong direction. Either of the ACC schools could still get him, but I for one will no longer be surprised if he heads out of state.

At least we'll know relatively quickly, as the plan -- always subject to change, of course -- but the plan at this point remains to announce at some point before Thanksgiving.

[Saratoga2]

If Ingram comes, that's great, but our class for next year is totally fine with me with Kennard, Jeter, and Obi

Realistically, we will have Obi, Plumlee, Jefferson and Jeter inside next year so Brandon would be competing for a small forward position. His build suggests he is best suited for small forward as well. That suggests he would be competing with Winslow (will he stay?) and Ojeleye and possibly even Matt Jones. Clearly we could use him going forward but it is unlikely he would start or get a lot of PT.

[Dukehky]

Realistically, we will have Obi, Plumlee, Jefferson and Jeter inside next year so Brandon would be competing for a small forward position. His build suggests he is best suited for small forward as well. That suggests he would be competing with Winslow (will he stay?) and Ojeleye and possibly even Matt Jones. Clearly we could use him going forward but it is unlikely he would start or get a lot of PT.

I agree and I'm not sure he is good enough to potentially harm our recruitment of Jayson Tatum who is a flat out stud. You also forgot Rasheed, Grayson, and Kennard, all of whom could see time at the 3 as well. That's a really deep team, which is a good problem to have, but I would prefer to add depth at the top of the rotation, which is what I think Tatum would bring. I think of Ingram purely as a luxury at this point, a luxury who can play, and would be cool to grab, but as long as he isn't a luxury that Carolina has, then whatevs.

[DukeRocks12]

Any news regarding Brandon Ingram's camp after the visits?

[CarmenWallaceWade]

Seems right now would be a great time for Duke to check in with him and fellow in-state top recruit Harry Giles, who rumor has it will strongly end up at either Duke or UNC.

[tommy]

Seems right now would be a great time for Duke to check in with him and fellow in-state top recruit Harry Giles, who rumor has it will strongly end up at either Duke or UNC.

Duke does check in with Brandon regularly. Of course. But they can't do so at the moment because Brandon and his dad are headed to Los Angeles for another on-campus visit to UCLA this weekend.

[Kedsy]

Seems right now would be a great time for Duke to check in with him and fellow in-state top recruit Harry Giles, who rumor has it will strongly end up at either Duke or UNC.

I'm not sure I agree. Is there any chance at all that a NC resident hasn't heard the news? Duke "checking in" has the potential to be seen in a negative light, as if Duke is piling on, kicking a guy when he's down, etc., etc. I don't know that much about recruiting tactics, but for me it would be tempting to stay above the fray, go all Duke-positive and let the ambient UNC-negativity all around us do my work for me.

[BD80]

... Duke "checking in" has the potential to be seen in a negative light, as if Duke is piling on, kicking a guy when he's down, etc., etc. ...

When I was a kid, my father told me, "Never hit anyone in anger, unless you're absolutely sure you can get away with it."

I think that applies here.

Actually, maybe Coach K could try this tactic:

"I'm talking about something important, like discipline and duty and honor and courage. And you [nc] ain't got none of it!"

[Nugget]

When I was a kid, my father told me, "Never hit anyone in anger, unless you're absolutely sure you can get away with it."

I think that applies here.

Actually, maybe Coach K could try this tactic:

"I'm talking about something important, like discipline and duty and honor and courage. And you [nc] ain't got none of it!"


"Lighten up, Francis."

[MCFinARL]

I'm not sure I agree. Is there any chance at all that a NC resident hasn't heard the news? Duke "checking in" has the potential to be seen in a negative light, as if Duke is piling on, kicking a guy when he's down, etc., etc. I don't know that much about recruiting tactics, but for me it would be tempting to stay above the fray, go all Duke-positive and let the ambient UNC-negativity all around us do my work for me.

That sounds right--and it is my impression based on everything I have read that the Duke program is pretty committed to a positive recruiting model. I specifically remember Jahlil Okafor making a comment at one point in his recruitment about how he did not like negative recruiting, specifically noting some coaches who had suggested that Duke is not a good place for big men and disagreeing with that assessment. That would be a pretty odd remark to make, especially before he had committed, if at the same time he was hearing negative messages about other schools from Duke.

At this point the best kind of "checking in" Duke could do with its in-state recruits would be to do whatever would be the normal pattern, without regard to anything happening down the road. If it's time for a check-in call, make it, and have the same conversation you would normally have; if it's not, don't.

[English]

Has Brandon attended CTC in the past? Reading the Blue Devil Lair rundown of the CTC schedule and attendees, the mention that BI has chosen this weekend to take an official to UCLA is striking. I recognize that he's a local boy and has certainly been on campus dozens of times, but has he attended CTC in the past that this occasion would be redundant or something? I can't help but think that's not a great sign for us landing him at this point. Apologies if this was discussed at some point beyond the last few days--I don't recall seeing it.

[CarmenWallaceWade]

Agree with the points made here. I like to believe we have always taken the high road with recruiting and the program speaks for itself. Wouldn't want that ever to change.

[budwom]

I'm quite certain Ingram will hear gobs of negative recruiting info about unc without Duke bringing it up. That's the way things work.

Maybe he just wants to see California. I'm not too concerned about him....he's got talent, but I'm not sure we can meet his
expectations with regard to the express lane to the NBA.

[roywhite]

I'm quite certain Ingram will hear gobs of negative recruiting info about unc without Duke bringing it up. That's the way things work.

Maybe he just wants to see California. I'm not too concerned about him....he's got talent, but I'm not sure we can meet his
expectations with regard to the express lane to the NBA.

Speaking of the lane to the NBA not working out, James Michael McAdoo was cut by the Golden State Warriors (http://thelantern.com/2014/10/former-buckeye-aaron-craft-waived-by-golden-state-warriors/), as was Aaron Craft.

McAdoo went from a possible lottery 1st rounder projection to not getting drafted, and so far not making an NBA team.

[tommy]

I'm quite certain Ingram will hear gobs of negative recruiting info about unc without Duke bringing it up. That's the way things work.

Maybe he just wants to see California. I'm not too concerned about him....he's got talent, but I'm not sure we can meet his
expectations with regard to the express lane to the NBA.

I agree with you. The Ingram camp has seemed to shift quite a bit over the last few months from having a mindset of "how can we best prepare for the NBA/where can he get the best coaching/where will he find the best competition in college" to "how/where can Brandon be best showcased for the NBA and what school would get him to the league the quickest." As that shift has been occurring, Duke's chances of landing him have decreased. This is all their perception, of course, and at least in my mind is not based on any objective evaluation of these issues. But it is what it is at this point. That's not to say that Brandon can't get back from LA, take the next few weeks, re-focus on what really makes the most sense for him, considering all factors in a rational way, and re-focus on Duke, but at this point I would not bet any folding money on it.

[bbosbbos]

My gut feeling is that we are done with 2015.



I agree with you. The Ingram camp has seemed to shift quite a bit over the last few months from having a mindset of "how can we best prepare for the NBA/where can he get the best coaching/where will he find the best competition in college" to "how/where can Brandon be best showcased for the NBA and what school would get him to the league the quickest." As that shift has been occurring, Duke's chances of landing him have decreased. This is all their perception, of course, and at least in my mind is not based on any objective evaluation of these issues. But it is what it is at this point. That's not to say that Brandon can't get back from LA, take the next few weeks, re-focus on what really makes the most sense for him, considering all factors in a rational way, and re-focus on Duke, but at this point I would not bet any folding money on it.

[johnb]

I'm not too concerned about him....he's got talent, but I'm not sure we can meet his
expectations with regard to the express lane to the NBA.

If I were him, I'd at least see UCLA.

Virtually everyone wants an express lane to the NBA; our program is as good as anywhere in preparing excellent players for a career in the league. If that's his goal, that shouldn't hurt us.

Looking at Carolina, however, he must recognize they're facing some potentially big sanctions that could keep him off tv and out of the tournament and playing with reduced scholarship players, plus he'd be tarred unfairly by the Carolina brush of being poorly educated. He wouldn't need us to tell him about what it means to do it the Carolina Way.

[Troublemaker]

If I were him, I'd at least see UCLA.

Yeah, most of the top-level recruits use all 5 official visits since the experience on those visits is typically fantastic for the 16/17 year-old high-schooler. It's the rare cat like Luke Kennard that cuts off recruiting after only one official visit. I'm not too worried about UCLA here.

[budwom]

I remember taking a two paid trips to California when I was in grad school, even though I was 99% certain I wasn't going to accept a job there. Never
hurts to have a look at things, and a trip to UCLA is more fun than one to North Platte, Nebraska.

[sagegrouse]

Yeah, most of the top-level recruits use all 5 official visits since the experience on those visits is typically fantastic for the 16/17 year-old high-schooler. It's the rare cat like Luke Kennard that cuts off recruiting after only one official visit. I'm not too worried about UCLA here.

Lessee, ... You could hang with your buddies in high school, or you could take a chartered jet, stay in a five-star hotel, have some fabulous meals, play pick-up hoops with some all-world players, get told how great you are by world-famous coaches, and meet some cool chicks. I might be able to find five weekends where I could fit an OV into my schedule.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Lessee, ... You could hang with your buddies in high school, or you could take a chartered jet, stay in a five-star hotel, have some fabulous meals, play pick-up hoops with some all-world players, get told how great you are by world-famous coaches, and meet some cool chicks. I might be able to find five weekends where I could fit an OV into my schedule.

Biggest euphemism ever?

[Skitzle]

Brandon's been saying for awhile that he was going to commit before his senior season started, which would mean October. Certainly no later than Thanksgiving or so. That can change, of course, but I haven't heard anything yet about the timetable changing.

Tommy any updates on annouce date. Also has he cut down his final list yet?

Lastly if Duke misses on Ingram do you see them going after any other players/wings in 2015 or do you think 2015 is set?

[jimsumner]

Tommy any updates on annouce date. Also has he cut down his final list yet?

Lastly if Duke misses on Ingram do you see them going after any other players/wings in 2015 or do you think 2015 is set?

Ingram is the last remaining Duke target in this class. He is expected to sign in the fall signing period.

[tommy]

Tommy any updates on annouce date. Also has he cut down his final list yet?

Lastly if Duke misses on Ingram do you see them going after any other players/wings in 2015 or do you think 2015 is set?

No firm date yet, but it's going to be in the next couple of weeks before his HS season starts.

And this is it for 2015. Only way I could see additions is if there is an unexpected exodus after this year and we look for an immediately-eligible transfer or graduate, but as far as the high school class goes, Ingram is it.

[DukeRocks12]

Sounds like Ingram is gonna stay in state. Will visit unofficially to NC State and Duke this weekend to see if he needs more time or not.

[AncientPsychicT]

Sounds like Ingram is gonna stay in state. Will visit unofficially to NC State and Duke this weekend to see if he needs more time or not.

If people are wondering where this info comes from, it's from this Rivals article. (https://basketballrecruiting.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1703003) I'm not entirely sure if the author knows anything special or is using outdated information, so take it for what it's worth.

[superdave]

And this guy -


Blue Devil Nation ‏@BlueDevilNation Nov 7
Long, lean big time prospect Brandon Ingram @B_Ingram13 is set to visit #Duke for the Fairfield game.

[DukeRocks12]

If people are wondering where this info comes from, it's from this Rivals article. (https://basketballrecruiting.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1703003) I'm not entirely sure if the author knows anything special or is using outdated information, so take it for what it's worth.

Um Bossi knows what he's talking about.

[howardlander]

Um Bossi knows what he's talking about.

The article is worth reading. Note what he says about #10, Stephen Zimmerman, who had been planning to visit UNC, but now isn't. I wonder why?

Howard

[BD80]

The article is worth reading. Note what he says about #10, Stephen Zimmerman, who had been planning to visit UNC, but now isn't. I wonder why?

Sounds like a natural for unc, a no-show visit. I'll bet he picked up a few credits for the (non)effort. Think he got an A or an A- ?

[budwom]

I wouldn't be shocked if unc escaped NCAA sanctions (as they always do) but regardless of that, they're going to be negative recruited to death until a decision is made.
Sure son, go to unc, but they'll be banned from the post season for years, no other recruits will go there, waste your time at a demolished program. I can assure you this
is happening right now.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Sounds like a natural for unc, a no-show visit. I'll bet he picked up a few credits for the (non)effort. Think he got an A or an A- ?

If his essay was over 200 words, an A. If under? A+

[Henderson]

The article is worth reading. Note what he says about #10, Stephen Zimmerman, who had been planning to visit UNC, but now isn't. I wonder why?


I don't doubt for a minute that this stuff is negatively impacting UNC-CH recruiting, and despite that I'm still sleeping well. But in fairness, kids cool on a program for a lot of different reasons. We've had our share of examples, and I feel certain those weren't linked to a Duke scandal.

[ChillinDuke]

Pulse check.

I assume the majority of us don't think Ingram will come here? I, for one, think this one's a long shot.

- Chillin

[Ichabod Drain]

Pulse check.

I assume the majority of us don't think Ingram will come here? I, for one, think this one's a long shot.

- Chillin

I keep up with recruits and recruiting analysts pretty well and I have no idea about Ingram. My gut says UNC with Duke being second at this point but I really have no clue.

I think the kid likes UNC a lot but two things could push him away. One would be obviously the whole cheating debacle. The other being playing time. With no senior wing players and none neccesarily projected to go to the NBA it would be difficult for him to get a lot of minutes there.

But for all I know he could end up in beautiful southern California.

[gam7]

But for all I know he could end up in beautiful southern California.

I'm not predicting this (or anything else for that matter), but wouldn't be shocked to see it. It has started to feel a bit like Kevon Looney all over again - Adidas/late involvement from UCLA... UCLA does seem to have a pull for those Adidas kids. But with a North Carolina kid, who knows? NC State would give him adidas and North Carolina...

[tommy]

This is a tough one to read. The Ingrams have been consistent for a long time that the decision will be made before his season starts. That's very, very soon.

Folks very close to the situation have not been confident about landing Ingram for awhile now. I know that for a fact. That makes me not confident either. Brandon's dad is a UNC guy at heart, but the cloud over the UNC program has to be a factor. He told me awhile ago that if he had his druthers, his son would stay close to home, but then they made those trips to Kentucky, Kansas, and then another trip across the country to UCLA recently too, talking afterwards about how Brandon could really be showcased for the NBA in those programs. And they enjoyed those trips a lot.

Now with it just about decision time, you've got him coming back onto campus at Duke (and at NC State -- who was thought to be just about out of the picture) and talking about maybe not making the decision in November after all.

In addition, the Ingram camp has grown increasingly tight-lipped about what is going on.

I think there's a lot of confusion and indecision happening right now. There are a lot of people in the Ingrams' ear, a lot of moving parts here, unlike some of the more straightforward recruitments we've enjoyed of late. Brandon's decision to attend a game now at Cameron can only be good for us, but is by no means a guarantee or even a signal of anything, given everything else going on here. Maybe it will help us pull this one out of the fire, but I'm sure not ready to call that right now. Just about anyone who does is engaging in wishful thinking, IMO, or just guessing.

[ricks68]

This is a tough one to read. The Ingrams have been consistent for a long time that the decision will be made before his season starts. That's very, very soon.

Folks very close to the situation have not been confident about landing Ingram for awhile now. I know that for a fact. That makes me not confident either. Brandon's dad is a UNC guy at heart, but the cloud over the UNC program has to be a factor. He told me awhile ago that if he had his druthers, his son would stay close to home, but then they made those trips to Kentucky, Kansas, and then another trip across the country to UCLA recently too, talking afterwards about how Brandon could really be showcased for the NBA in those programs. And they enjoyed those trips a lot.

Now with it just about decision time, you've got him coming back onto campus at Duke (and at NC State -- who was thought to be just about out of the picture) and talking about maybe not making the decision in November after all.

In addition, the Ingram camp has grown increasingly tight-lipped about what is going on.

I think there's a lot of confusion and indecision happening right now. There are a lot of people in the Ingrams' ear, a lot of moving parts here, unlike some of the more straightforward recruitments we've enjoyed of late. Brandon's decision to attend a game now at Cameron can only be good for us, but is by no means a guarantee or even a signal of anything, given everything else going on here. Maybe it will help us pull this one out of the fire, but I'm sure not ready to call that right now. Just about anyone who does is engaging in wishful thinking, IMO, or just guessing.

IMHO I think that The Scandal is affecting their recruiting due to the mystery involving possible sanctions going forward. If a kid wants to go to the NBA, and UNC is sanctioned going forward, what advantage is it for a kid to go there?

ricks

[SilkyJ]

This is a tough one to read. The Ingrams have been consistent for a long time that the decision will be made before his season starts. That's very, very soon.

Folks very close to the situation have not been confident about landing Ingram for awhile now. I know that for a fact. That makes me not confident either. Brandon's dad is a UNC guy at heart, but the cloud over the UNC program has to be a factor. He told me awhile ago that if he had his druthers, his son would stay close to home, but then they made those trips to Kentucky, Kansas, and then another trip across the country to UCLA recently too, talking afterwards about how Brandon could really be showcased for the NBA in those programs. And they enjoyed those trips a lot.

Now with it just about decision time, you've got him coming back onto campus at Duke (and at NC State -- who was thought to be just about out of the picture) and talking about maybe not making the decision in November after all.

In addition, the Ingram camp has grown increasingly tight-lipped about what is going on.

I think there's a lot of confusion and indecision happening right now. There are a lot of people in the Ingrams' ear, a lot of moving parts here, unlike some of the more straightforward recruitments we've enjoyed of late. Brandon's decision to attend a game now at Cameron can only be good for us, but is by no means a guarantee or even a signal of anything, given everything else going on here. Maybe it will help us pull this one out of the fire, but I'm sure not ready to call that right now. Just about anyone who does is engaging in wishful thinking, IMO, or just guessing.

Thanks for the update tommy. Sounds like there isn't a ton of info out there, but appreciate you piecing it together for us. I'm not sure if the lack of info makes my next comment more or less true, but maybe this is a good candidate for the 247sports Crystal Ball. I think its more interesting to analyze what people are predicting on recruitments that are seemingly more up in the air vs ones where 99% of people expect a recruit to go to school X.

Looking purely at the crystal ball predictions (http://247sports.com/PlayerInstitution/Brandon-Ingram-at-Kinston-38818/CurrentExpertPredictions), I think things look good for us. UNC was the clear leader as predictions started to roll in last fall/winter, but there was a shift over the spring/summer of 2014 as virtually everyone came out in the Duke camp. There were a couple analysts that came out predicting UNC this summer (3 of them, all within a few days of each other, all seemingly Louisville insiders, and all with minimal track records to date) but every other analyst that predicted over the spring/summer came out with a Duke prediction. Importantly, there were several highly notable & credible analysts among those predicting Duke, including Airowe, Jerry Meyer, a CatsPause analyst with a very strong track record, and several other guys with significant credibility. (there's also two UNC insider analysts who came out predicting Duke, but neither has a track record at this point). Of further note, several of the analysts that came out predicting Duke were changing their prediction from UNC to Duke, including Jerry Meyer and the CatsPause guy.

So reading all those tea leaves looks pretty good to me. With the exception of the 3 guys that came out predicting UNC this summer, all picks since April 1st have come out in favor in Duke (15+ analysts). But there is an exception: a couple weeks ago, 3 analysts came out predicting Kansas. They came within a few days of each other and I believe it was shortly after Brandon's on-campus visit at KU. One of the analysts is a UK insider with a great track record, one is a KU insider with a good, but short, track record, and the last is a national analyst (i.e. no affiliation that I can discern) with an average record. 2 of them were moving their prediction from Duke to KU. No one had predicted KU before these guys, so its interesting that they are coming in with this late prediction--they clearly heard something recently, probably related to the visit, that they liked...and these guys aren't numbskulls (seemingly...).

So analyzing what the crystal ball is telling us, it seems Duke leads, UNC is still in the hunt but potentially fading, and KU may be making a late charge. (tommy, care to comment on the KU thing? we've talked about about UNC and UK and UCLA a bit here, but no real mention of KU...).

I'm still curious to see how the Crystal Ball performs before we render a judgement on it, so this will be another good test. One of the key things I'm taking away from looking at the predictions is understanding the quality and track record of the analyst. In this case, we have several very strong analysts making predictions in our favor and moving away from UNC, so that's a positive sign. Still, these are 17 yr old kids, so they might wake up tomorrow and decide playing in Spain for a year is the best thing--who knows!

[Duvall]

I'm still curious to see how the Crystal Ball performs before we render a judgement on it, so this will be another good test.

Didn't we get enough info last year to have a sense of how the Crystal Ball performs, i.e., poorly?

[FerryFor50]

Honestly, if he wants to stay close to home *and* get guaranteed playing time in a major conference, NCSU makes the most sense.

[Henderson]

[Ingram Sr.] told me awhile ago that if he had his druthers, his son would stay close to home, but then they made those trips to Kentucky, Kansas, and then another trip across the country to UCLA recently too, talking afterwards about how Brandon could really be showcased for the NBA in those programs.

When a parent/handler/guardian is involved in the recruiting process and talks openly about "showcasing" their kid for the NBA as a priority, I start thinking, "Maybe not our guy."

I don't fault the person for it, and Duke is about as good a showcase as you could want if you earn PT and go to school, but if that's the stated priority, maybe another program would work out better.

[bbosbbos]

That is what I thought.


Honestly, if he wants to stay close to home *and* get guaranteed playing time in a major conference, NCSU makes the most sense.

[BD80]

When a parent/handler/guardian is involved in the recruiting process and talks openly about "showcasing" their kid for the NBA as a priority, I start thinking, "Maybe not our guy." ...

How about Skal Labissieres?

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/eye-on-college-basketball/24801563/aau-coach-skal-labissieres-guardian-asked-how-to-profit-from-prospect

More bad news on the recruiting trail for ol' roy. unc is on Skal's short list.


"... on Thursday five-star prospect Skal Labissiere, ranked No. 7 in the Class of 2015 by 247Sports, is expected to announce his college decision from a list of schools featuring Baylor, Georgetown, Kentucky, Memphis, North Carolina and Tennessee. No matter which program the 6-foot-11 Haitian refugee selects, sources have told CBSSports.com the NCAA plans to spend a lot of time investigating the details surrounding his recruitment, mostly because of the way Labissiere's legal guardian -- ... Gerald Hamilton ...

...about two years ago, [AAU coach] Easterwood got a random phone call.

"It was Gerald Hamilton," Easterwood told CBSSports.com. "He wanted to talk, and one of the things he asked me was, 'How can I make money off of a basketball player?'" ...

... Labissiere has attended two different high schools and played for three different summer programs, all while Hamilton worked behind the scenes to secure funds for a 501 (c) (3) foundation called Reach Your Dream. Multiple coaches who have recruited Labissiere told CBSSports.com Hamilton either directly indicated or strongly suggested pursuing Labissiere would mostly be a waste of time if they couldn't offer assistance in helping fund his foundation.

[tommy]

Honestly, if he wants to stay close to home *and* get guaranteed playing time in a major conference, NCSU makes the most sense.

There's a very good case to be made in favor of State, and you've made it succinctly. "Best basketball conference" was a big thing to the Ingrams when they spoke of priorities over this past summer, but then later it was way down the list, especially when they had Kentucky fever. Maybe they're coming back to the feeling that playing against the best competition night in and night out would be not only good preparation for the next level, but a good way to showcase his talents, as there will be more marquee-type games in the ACC than anywhere else.




So analyzing what the crystal ball is telling us, it seems Duke leads, UNC is still in the hunt but potentially fading, and KU may be making a late charge. (tommy, care to comment on the KU thing? we've talked about about UNC and UK and UCLA a bit here, but no real mention of KU...).

I'm still curious to see how the Crystal Ball performs before we render a judgement on it, so this will be another good test. One of the key things I'm taking away from looking at the predictions is understanding the quality and track record of the analyst. In this case, we have several very strong analysts making predictions in our favor and moving away from UNC, so that's a positive sign. Still, these are 17 yr old kids, so they might wake up tomorrow and decide playing in Spain for a year is the best thing--who knows!

Great post SilkyJ. Couple things I would say. First of all, we should all remember that recruiting is so fluid. The situation can change very quickly, and often, so having fresh information is really important. Unfortunately, the Ingrams aren't providing much fresh information right now. In that case, all you can do is watch what a kid does, rather than what he or his camp says. What he's doing is looking at Duke and NC State again, and not UNC. Interesting.

But when it comes to the Crystal Ball guys, you're right to be looking at their track records, as some are certainly better than others, and some are better with their information vis-a-vis certain schools than are others. But I would also want to look at when their predictions were made. If a guy made a prediction in July, the information he was basing it on is old. Now maybe he hasn't changed his pick because, despite the kid having changed his mind a couple of times, the predictor is lazy or uninvolved in it, so he just let it sit. Maybe he lucked out because the kid moved away from that school and now has come around and is favoring that same school again, and the pick ends up correct. Or maybe the kid never really moved at all and the predictor was just spot on from the beginning. Lots of possibilities. To me, the most reliable predictions are those made by those with a good track record, and who are basing their picks on the most recent information.

As far as Kansas goes, there was some discussion of them upthread here. It had seemed like it was going to be Duke and UNC, but then Brandon decided to visit both Kentucky and Kansas for their versions of Midnight Madness. There were a TON of elite recruits in Lawrence that weekend, and Kansas always puts on a great show and their program is terrific, obviously. They have a lot to offer -- everything, really, that most of these kids care most about. Hence, they have been a recruiting behemoth in recent years. They made a big impression on Brandon, just like Kentucky did. Kentucky of course is the glamour school, though, with the promises of an all-pleasure, no-pain quick path to the NBA lottery, so that's hard to match if you're susceptible to the allure of that pitch.

Like I say, I'm not predicting Kansas. Or Kentucky. But I wouldn't bet against them either. I'm not predicting anybody at this point for Ingram. Duke and NC State have to be encouraged that they're getting this additional visit, and maybe Brandon's dad's favoritism of the ACC has regained its importance, and his desire to have his son closer to home is having sway again too. Could be. I just don't think anybody knows for sure right now.

And as far as Adidas goes, sure, they have influence on some of these kids' decisions. Others, they have none. We should all remember that Chase Jeter, who played in the Adidas AAU circuit, and who had as his finalists Duke and a strong Adidas school -- UCLA -- not only chose Duke, but made his announcement on national TV at an Adidas event. If it is a factor for Ingram, both NC State and Kansas are Adidas schools.

[ChillinDuke]

As a reminder (and to temper expectations), RSCI lists Ingram as the #18 recruit in the Class of 2015. So, he is not necessarily a gamechanger - at least by that metric.

As a fresh point of reference, Justise was #13 and Grayson was #24 in last year's final RSCI rankings. One is (likely) starting for us; the other is widely argued (on this board) to be on mop-up duty if K goes his ~8-man rotation.

I'll leave it at that.

- Chillin

[DukeRocks12]

http://instagram.com/p/vCpj_0FAlw/?modal=true

uh oh he's rocking a ku shirt.

[Kedsy]

http://instagram.com/p/vCpj_0FAlw/?modal=true

uh oh he's rocking a ku shirt.

Yeah, that's it. It's over.

[AncientPsychicT]

http://instagram.com/p/vCpj_0FAlw/?modal=true

uh oh he's rocking a ku shirt.

That post is from a week ago, which is less recent than the Bossi article you initially alluded to. If Bossi is as good as you think he is, then you shouldn't be worrying about that pic at all. Personally, Bossi seems pretty smart to me, but I don't necessarily trust his intuition on this one, as pretty much every credible source that I rely on has basically no idea how this will end. This pic doesn't affect my impression of Ingram's recruitment on the confidence/worry scale at all.

[jimsumner]

As a reminder (and to temper expectations), RSCI lists Ingram as the #18 recruit in the Class of 2015. So, he is not necessarily a gamechanger - at least by that metric.

As a fresh point of reference, Justise was #13 and Grayson was #24 in last year's final RSCI rankings. One is (likely) starting for us; the other is widely argued (on this board) to be on mop-up duty if K goes his ~8-man rotation.

I'll leave it at that.

- Chillin

Mason Plumlee was the consensus #18 prospect in his class. Amile Jefferson was No. 21. Jon Scheyer was No. 28. Rodney Hood was 27. Nolan Smith was No. 18.

Moving away from Duke, we can find such recent difference makers as Tyler Ennis (23), Mitch McGary (26), T.J. Warren (27), Michael Carter-Williams (25), DeShaun Thomas (17), Roscoe Smith (28), Tony Wroten (18), Tyler Zeller (18).

Shabazz Napier, the best player on the most recent NCAA champions, was ranked No. 75 coming out of high school.

Ingram is a consensus top-20 recruit. That's pretty rarified air, IMO.

[superdave]

It would be much more rarified if Ingram was the consensus #18 recruit, meaning ranked #18 by every recruiting analyst. Then he would almost have to wear #18.

So when is Ingram expected to announce anyways? His high school team should be practicing by now, right? Games probably start within the week.

Let's do this, Brandon!

[budwom]

can't imagine why anyone pays serious attention to the Crystal Ball...

[BD80]

can't imagine why anyone pays serious attention to the Crystal Ball...

Yet, I predict that many still will

[ChillinDuke]

Mason Plumlee was the consensus #18 prospect in his class. Amile Jefferson was No. 21. Jon Scheyer was No. 28. Rodney Hood was 27. Nolan Smith was No. 18.

Moving away from Duke, we can find such recent difference makers as Tyler Ennis (23), Mitch McGary (26), T.J. Warren (27), Michael Carter-Williams (25), DeShaun Thomas (17), Roscoe Smith (28), Tony Wroten (18), Tyler Zeller (18).

Shabazz Napier, the best player on the most recent NCAA champions, was ranked No. 75 coming out of high school.

Ingram is a consensus top-20 recruit. That's pretty rarified air, IMO.

That wasn't really the intent of my post, although fair point. I posted more to remind people that this is not Jahlil Okafor or Jabari Parker, on the order of freshman season gamechangers. Very few of the names you've listed were "gamechangers" (again, my word) as a freshman.

I certainly did not intend to discount Ingram's talent / possibilities. Perhaps I'm the one at fault for forgetting the early context of this recruitment.

Finally, it's just as easy to go through the historical rankings and cherry-pick the relative failures as you have with the successes in this range. For one, our very own Josh Hairston (32) isn't far off from those you've listed. Especially when you include Shabazz.

Talent? Unquestionable. Rarified air? Reasonable minds.

I'd definitely welcome him if he chooses us. But I'm a bit leery on this one. Just doesn't smell like a "normal" Duke recruiting situation.

- Chillin

[MChambers]

Yet, I predict that many still will
Why should we pay attention to your prediction?

[Kedsy]

I'd definitely welcome him if he chooses us. But I'm a bit leery on this one. Just doesn't smell like a "normal" Duke recruiting situation.

Yeah, not too many #18 recruits are one-and-done. And yet the family is talking about "showcasing" his talents, which is usually code for "wants to be one-and-done." Hard to get a read on this one.

[tommy]

It would be much more rarified if Ingram was the consensus #18 recruit, meaning ranked #18 by every recruiting analyst. Then he would almost have to wear #18.

So when is Ingram expected to announce anyways? His high school team should be practicing by now, right? Games probably start within the week.

Let's do this, Brandon!

I believe their opener is the 29th, so Brandon still has a couple of weeks, assuming he's sticking to his "before my season starts" plan for announcing.

[SilkyJ]

Didn't we get enough info last year to have a sense of how the Crystal Ball performs, i.e., poorly?

Did we? Want to throw some data out there?

It got the Jah&Tyus package combo right. It got Justise right. There are clearly tons of guys on there who's names we know and we know to be well-informed. The guys I pointed to, including Jerry Meyer, Adam Rowe, Adam's colleague Chad, and that's CatsPause guy I mentioned have very good track records, getting it right 70-80% of the time. Are you saying 70-80% is "poor" performance?


can't imagine why anyone pays serious attention to the Crystal Ball...

Is looking at a collection of the most knowledgeable, well connected, and well respected analysts a terrible way to figure out where a kid might be leaning? Seems like a decent place to start. (Now if you dont want to engage in the exercise at all b/c its so frustrating, then I get it, but if you're going to take the plunge...)

Also, I said two important things: 1) I'm still determining if its worth using, and I've seen it get it right plenty of times (nothing comes to mind recently...other than our entire recruiting class year) so I'll continue to monitor it. This could be a good test for the CB. We'll see, I'm at least willing to see what happens. 2) I'm much more focused on the guys with track records. Go look at them. All those guys I mentioned are right like 70-80% of the time and the sample size is getting pretty decent (Jerry Meyer made 199 predictions last year and got 144 right (73%)).

I'll add one more thing, it might not useful 6 months before the person is ready to announce as too much can change in that time. But in the weeks/months leading up, I think its much more useful to see what people are hearing.

Not sure what you guys are seeing since all you left were one liners.


Yet, I predict that many still will

Why should we pay attention to your prediction?

#metta

[tommy]

Yeah, not too many #18 recruits are one-and-done. And yet the family is talking about "showcasing" his talents, which is usually code for "wants to be one-and-done." Hard to get a read on this one.

Yeah, and what's really a head-scratcher is the notion that another school might be a better place to showcase one's talents. Many, like Kansas, or in more 'normal' times UNC, might be just as good in that regard, but is there a college basketball program that gets more frequent national exposure and attention than Duke? How could one feel that he wouldn't get enough exposure if he chose Duke? We did have the #2 pick in the draft last year, the #1 pick in the draft a couple of years before that, and have had scores of other first rounders including lottery picks over the years. Not enough of a showcase? At Duke?

Maybe one could say that Kentucky really "showcases" players for the NBA in the sense that they openly embrace the idea that the whole point of playing in college is to get yourself drafted early and high, but I would think that other schools would negatively recruit against them based on their roster being too loaded with guys all of whom are engaged in extended NBA tryouts, and there's not going to be enough PT for any of them. And Calipari's platooning plan would seem to exacerbate the issue.

If the idea behind "showcasing" is to get maximum playing time, then as a previous poster noted, of Brandon's finalists, NC State would seem to offer the closest to a guarantee of immediate and major PT.

[Dev11]

The Crystal Ball may not be useful as a single aggregate prediction, but rather as a place to document all the various predictions. I like that it exists, so we don't have to go looking for predictions at a dozen different sites, and the guys who make the predictions know where to go make them 'official.'

If you think we'll ever have a consensus good system for predicting where a bunch of 17-year-old athletes are going to college, I have a college football playoff selection committee to sell you.

[Duvall]

Did we? Want to throw some data out there?

It got the Jah&Tyus package combo right. It got Justise right. There are clearly tons of guys on there who's names we know and we know to be well-informed. The guys I pointed to, including Jerry Meyer, Adam Rowe, Adam's colleague Chad, and that's CatsPause guy I mentioned have very good track records, getting it right 70-80% of the time. Are you saying 70-80% is "poor" performance?



It whiffed horribly on Kevon Looney, chasing one rumor after another while missing completely on the actual result. The Crystal Ball does a fine job of codifying the conventional wisdom on where recruits are going, which is probably right about 70-80% of the time. But there's no need for a tool that's right on the guys where everyone agrees who the leader is. Where there's no clear leader, the Crystal Ballers are just guessing like the rest of us. And that's fine, but it's not useful in any way.

ETA: "No need" is probably too strong. Dev11 has a point in that there's value in having a one-stop shop for recording the CW, and the Crystal Ball works for that.

[Dev11]

It whiffed horribly on Kevon Looney, chasing one rumor after another while missing completely on the actual result. The Crystal Ball does a fine job of codifying the conventional wisdom on where recruits are going, which is probably right about 70-80% of the time. But there's no need for a tool that's right on the guys where everyone agrees who the leader is. Where there's no clear leader, the Crystal Ballers are just guessing like the rest of us. And that's fine, but it's not useful in any way.

ETA: "No need" is probably too strong. Dev11 has a point in that there's value in having a one-stop shop for recording the CW, and the Crystal Ball works for that.

So it needs a confidence meter in addition to the pick. That's a simple addition, although one which the writers might not necessarily use if they are busy.

Don't make it seem like the Crystal Ball is where the buck stops about where kids go to college. It's a fun tool for fans. I think it would be very, uh, BBN of us to berate the CB contributors for getting things wrong.

[AncientPsychicT]

It whiffed horribly on Kevon Looney, chasing one rumor after another while missing completely on the actual result. The Crystal Ball does a fine job of codifying the conventional wisdom on where recruits are going, which is probably right about 70-80% of the time. But there's no need for a tool that's right on the guys where everyone agrees who the leader is. Where there's no clear leader, the Crystal Ballers are just guessing like the rest of us. And that's fine, but it's not useful in any way.

Disagree. When there is a clear lack of consensus (i.e. multiple picks for many schools, experts changing their picks constantly), it still retains value. It lets the observer know that this is an up-in-the-air recruitment, so much so that no one knows how it's going to end (likely not even the recruit himself). As such, any small info on that recruit should be taken with a grain of salt. It's a sign that instead of obsessing over what x, y, or z decision/action has on the recruit's thought process, the observer should realize that the decision probably won't be made until the last minute (potentially literally the last minute). This information has its own value, in that it might not indicate where a recruit is going, but it does indicate that a decision has truly not been made yet. It also suggests the recruit is either indecisive or unsure of his priorities in a college (or both). Ingram's recruitment certainly shows signs of this pattern, and based on external info, it seems that the Ingram camp falls more into the 'unsure of priorities' category.

In Looney's case, I got the impression that he wanted to go somewhere no one thought he would just so he could give a rebellious 'screw you' to the whole process. Since these are 17/18-year olds we're dealing with here, decisions made along those lines will happen from time to time. When they do happen, I choose to just throw them out as junk data, as they really don't mean anything.

[jimsumner]

That wasn't really the intent of my post, although fair point. I posted more to remind people that this is not Jahlil Okafor or Jabari Parker, on the order of freshman season gamechangers. Very few of the names you've listed were "gamechangers" (again, my word) as a freshman.

I certainly did not intend to discount Ingram's talent / possibilities. Perhaps I'm the one at fault for forgetting the early context of this recruitment.

Finally, it's just as easy to go through the historical rankings and cherry-pick the relative failures as you have with the successes in this range. For one, our very own Josh Hairston (32) isn't far off from those you've listed. Especially when you include Shabazz.

Talent? Unquestionable. Rarified air? Reasonable minds.

I'd definitely welcome him if he chooses us. But I'm a bit leery on this one. Just doesn't smell like a "normal" Duke recruiting situation.

- Chillin

I understand your leeriness (is that a word?) and share some of it. But it has nothing to do with his ranking. I do not think anyone on the Duke side has argued that Ingram is the kind of player who is likely to come in and knock the doors off from day one. No one has compared him to Jabari Parker or Jahlil Okafor. That's a bit of a straw man, IMO.

I agree that if he expects to go in and be the guy right away, then Duke likely isn't the best place for him. If he's willing to devote his time to developing and refining his skills in the context of a perennial national title contender--however long that takes--then then we're having a different conversation.

I strongly suspect that is the discussion Ingram and his family are having and the discussion that Krzyzewski and Gottfried are having with them.

An aside on RSCII rankings. Duke hoops history has been written by guys in the 10-25 range who bought in and got better and better and eventually won games and championships. Duke's last NCAA championship team had one player--Singler--in the rotation who was ranked ahead of where Ingram is ranked today. Maybe Duke doesn't NEED guys ranked in the neighborhood of 18th nationally. But they sure seem to have a pretty good track record with them.

[Kedsy]

Duke's last NCAA championship team had one player--Singler--in the rotation who was ranked ahead of where Ingram is ranked today.

And the championship before that, we had 5 or 6 guys (not sure exactly where Nate James was ranked) rated ahead of where Ingram is now. Sure, Coach K has done great things with guys in the 10 to 25 range (as you say), but I'd say the better the talent the better the chance of success.

In any event, since the family appears to be talking about showcasing Ingram for the NBA, I don't think we can count on him "devot[ing] his time to developing and refining his skills in the context of a perennial national title contender."

That said, I'll of course be happy if he chooses Duke. He appears to be a really good player. I think the OP was simply stating that we shouldn't count on Mr. Ingram to be a savior or superstar from day one. And I agree with that.

[jimsumner]

And the championship before that, we had 5 or 6 guys (not sure exactly where Nate James was ranked) rated ahead of where Ingram is now. Sure, Coach K has done great things with guys in the 10 to 25 range (as you say), but I'd say the better the talent the better the chance of success.

In any event, since the family appears to be talking about showcasing Ingram for the NBA, I don't think we can count on him "devot[ing] his time to developing and refining his skills in the context of a perennial national title contender."

That said, I'll of course be happy if he chooses Duke. He appears to be a really good player. I think the OP was simply stating that we shouldn't count on Mr. Ingram to be a savior or superstar from day one. And I agree with that.

What 2001 and 2010 have in common is that the talent stuck around. The 2001 team had two seniors and three sophs as its core starting lineup. The 2010 team had three seniors (after Zoubek took over from Miles) and two juniors in its starting lineup. The 2001 team, FWIW, had five guys who later played in the NBA. Two, amazingly enough are still playing. As an aside, one of those, Mike Dunleavy, was ranked behind Casey Sanders in high school.

The 2010 team, by contrast had seven guys play in the NBA, six still active. Some key players on both of those teams-James, Scheyer, Zoubek--never logged a second in the pros. College ability doesn't always translate to NBA ability.

Time will tell if any of these 2010 guys last as long as Battier, Boozer and Dunleavy. But perhaps the talent gap between 2001 and 2010 wasn't all that big.

I'm reminded of Mark Twain's dictum that history doesn't necessarily repeat itself but it sometimes rhymes. And yes, John Calipari has done quite well with freshmen-dominated teams and I'd like to think that Duke's head coach can match Kentucky's in basketball acumen.

But a national-title run with a team dominated by freshmen would be outside of Duke's historical norms. I mentioned in another thread that Duke has never had a Final Four team without at least one upper-class (junior or senior) All-ACC player. I can go further. Duke has never had a Final Four team whose best player was a freshman.

Interestingly, the great Duke team that was most reliant on freshmen was pre-K, back in the earliest days of modern freshmen eligibility. Gene Banks and Kenny Dennard combined for 26.8 points and 14.9 rebounds per game in 1978. But that team had junior Jim Spanarkel.

As was the case with Bobby Hurley, Grant Hill and Luol Deng, the most successful Duke freshmen on K-era Final Four teams, teams that also had Phil Henderson, Christian Laettner or Chris Duhon. Danny Ferry had Dawkins and Alarie, Laettner had Ferry, Corey Maggette had Trajan Langdon, Duhon had Shane Battier.

What does that mean for this season? At this point it seems that Duke's three best players are freshmen, prodigiously talented freshmen, to be sure, but freshmen, nonetheless. That's why I continue feel that Cook, Sulaimon and Jefferson are going to have to be significant contributors to this team.

And to sort of bring it back to the topic of the thread, why, IMO, Duke needs to continue to blend talented multi-year players in with the one-and-dones. Ingram? Talented, yes. But multi-year? TBD.

This judicious blend is the plan. I highly doubt whether K will ever go full-Calipari and I don't really want him to. I like what he's doing. But can Okafor, Jones and Winslow lead Duke to the promised land in a way that Rivers and Parker could not? I hope so. But I think they've going to need some help from the guys who've been around the block a few times.

[SilkyJ]

It whiffed horribly on Kevon Looney, chasing one rumor after another while missing completely on the actual result.

So you're using one example to say that the whole thing performed poorly? It also got Henry Ellenson, and there's was plenty of uncertainty around that one.



The Crystal Ball does a fine job of codifying the conventional wisdom on where recruits are going, which is probably right about 70-80% of the time.

Well I think that's just the point: you don't actually know how often conventional wisdom is right and neither do I b/c we don't keep count--but now this tool may actually tell us.

Also, based on the track records I see on 247, I'd say "conventional wisdom" is much less than 70-80% and only the best guys can get it right that frequently.



But there's no need for a tool that's right on the guys where everyone agrees who the leader is. Where there's no clear leader, the Crystal Ballers are just guessing like the rest of us. And that's fine, but it's not useful in any way.

Well I agree its potentially more useful in those situations, I said that in my OP:

I think its more interesting to analyze what people are predicting on recruitments that are seemingly more up in the air vs ones where 99% of people expect a recruit to go to school X.



ETA: "No need" is probably too strong. Dev11 has a point in that there's value in having a one-stop shop for recording the CW, and the Crystal Ball works for that.

Agreed, at a minimum there's value in the aggregation. But its even more than that, it forces the analysts to put their records and names on the line. Over time it should differentiate the analysts based on who has better intel and is better at reading the tea leaves and making educated guesses--which allows us to put more or less weight on certain predictions. Yes, sometimes they'll just be guessing, but they are in the weeds so presumably they are more educated guesses.


So it needs a confidence meter in addition to the pick. That's a simple addition, although one which the writers might not necessarily use if they are busy.

That would be a good addition. They could factor it into the algorithm that ranks the experts as well. If you put the confidence level high its "worth" more, but also vice versa.



Don't make it seem like the Crystal Ball is where the buck stops about where kids go to college. It's a fun tool for fans. I think it would be very, uh, BBN of us to berate the CB contributors for getting things wrong.

Hope you're not suggesting that I think its where the buck stops. I agree its an interesting tool and I'm curious to see if it can become useful.

[Henderson]

But a national-title run with a team dominated by freshmen would be outside of Duke's historical norms. I mentioned in another thread that Duke has never had a Final Four team without at least one upper-class (junior or senior) All-ACC player. I can go further. Duke has never had a Final Four team whose best player was a freshman.

Interestingly, the great Duke team that was most reliant on freshmen was pre-K, back in the earliest days of modern freshmen eligibility. Gene Banks and Kenny Dennard combined for 26.8 points and 14.9 rebounds per game in 1978. But that team had junior Jim Spanarkel.


Further support for your point is that 1977-78 team got schooled in the NCAA final by senior UK star Jack Givens, who lit up the Spanarkal/Gminski/Banks/Dennard/Harrell squad for 41 points. And that Duke team was led not just by junior Jim Spanarkel, but by sophomore Mike Gminski. The two of them combined for 40.8 ppg, compared to the freshmen Banks/Dennard combining for 26.8.

The flip side is that the following year, with the same more experienced Duke starting five, Duke finished 2nd in the ACC regular season, lost to Carolina in the ACC tourney finals, then bowed out in the second round of the NCAA tourney with no freshmen of note other than Vince Taylor. So an extra year to not rely on freshmen resulted in a poorer season than the previous year when Duke started 2 freshmen and a sophomore and played for the national championship. Spanarkel's senior leadership did not carry the team through in 1978-79.

Since then, non-freshmen have been cores of Duke's best teams, though the freshmen contributions can't be ignored. A final four freshman-reliant team would be anomalous, no doubt.

The question I have is how much things have changed in the past few years. Top teams are relying more on underclassmen, which may mean having to rethink the relevance of past data. As the saying goes, "Old age and treachery beats youth and enthusiasm." But I'm not convinced that's true in college basketball anymore, when the best players typically never get to "old age and treachery" anymore.

Experienced leadership counts for a lot. I'm not sure it's either a necessary or sufficient condition for success, but it matters. The question is how much in the new OAD era. Can Amile, Quinn, and Marshall provide the backbone for a team rich in younger fast-twitch fibers? I'm interested to find out. In the years going forward, youthful talent may count for more than it has in the past.

[ChillinDuke]

I understand your leeriness (is that a word?) and share some of it. But it has nothing to do with his ranking. I do not think anyone on the Duke side has argued that Ingram is the kind of player who is likely to come in and knock the doors off from day one. No one has compared him to Jabari Parker or Jahlil Okafor. That's a bit of a straw man, IMO.

I agree that if he expects to go in and be the guy right away, then Duke likely isn't the best place for him. If he's willing to devote his time to developing and refining his skills in the context of a perennial national title contender--however long that takes--then then we're having a different conversation.

I strongly suspect that is the discussion Ingram and his family are having and the discussion that Krzyzewski and Gottfried are having with them.

An aside on RSCII rankings. Duke hoops history has been written by guys in the 10-25 range who bought in and got better and better and eventually won games and championships. Duke's last NCAA championship team had one player--Singler--in the rotation who was ranked ahead of where Ingram is ranked today. Maybe Duke doesn't NEED guys ranked in the neighborhood of 18th nationally. But they sure seem to have a pretty good track record with them.

I think we're more or less in agreement here. By the looks of it, the main purpose of my original post was to remind (apparently) myself that Ingram is not a top-5 recruit.

We'll see how this plays out.

- Chillin

[JPtheGame]

Ingram was in attendance at last night's game v Fairfield. Spotted sitting directly behind the Duke bench.

[bob blue devil]

The question I have is how much things have changed in the past few years. Top teams are relying more on underclassmen, which may mean having to rethink the relevance of past data. As the saying goes, "Old age and treachery beats youth and enthusiasm." But I'm not convinced that's true in college basketball anymore, when the best players typically never get to "old age and treachery" anymore.

Experienced leadership counts for a lot. I'm not sure it's either a necessary or sufficient condition for success, but it matters. The question is how much in the new OAD era. Can Amile, Quinn, and Marshall provide the backbone for a team rich in younger fast-twitch fibers? I'm interested to find out. In the years going forward, youthful talent may count for more than it has in the past.

I'll second this comment - history is not a particularly useful guide for identifying an optimal mix of upper and underclassman because the nature of going to the nba has changed. when you had nba talent sticking around until their senior year, of course upperclass nba talent typically beat underclass nba talent. but today most of the nba talent, and nearly all of the all-star nba talent, is not sticking around. there is plenty of evidence that talent is vastly more important than experience in ncaa basketball today. while duke has not been the poster child for this fact, it doesn't discount the broader evidence either.

[bbosbbos]

In the Fairfield game, Brandon Ingrim sat behind our team bench with 2 friends. Few seats away are Nolan Smith, Shane Battier & Grant Hill. During one time out, Brandon walked to the undergraduate section, gave high fives. I was wandering if this is allowed by NCAA. Then he high fived with graduates and returned to his seat. I can not make any assumption based on this. However what he did is quite different from that of other recruits.

On the other hand, Brandon looks very slim, similar to the freshman Amile. He can not be A O-A-D, needs a lot of body building before getting to NBA.

[coldriver10]

In the Fairfield game, Brandon Ingrim sat behind our team bench with 2 friends. Few seats away are Nolan Smith, Shane Battier & Grant Hill. During one time out, Brandon walked to the undergraduate section, gave high fives. I was wandering if this is allowed by NCAA. Then he high fived with graduates and returned to his seat. I can not make any assumption based on this. However what he did is quite different from that of other recruits.

On the other hand, Brandon looks very slim, similar to the freshman Amile. He can not be A O-A-D, needs a lot of body building before getting to NBA.
I was also curious if the Crazies' chanting his name and requesting he come to Duke is allowed. It'd be silly if not, but it's hard to understand everything the NCAA does (and doesn't do).

Regarding your last point, I'm a 5'6" female with a normal BMI and I might weigh more than Ingram. He looks even slimmer than Amile did coming in. But I'm sure he can put on some muscle mass, at least enough to hold his own.

[jimsumner]

I was also curious if the Crazies' chanting his name and requesting he come to Duke is allowed. It'd be silly if not, but it's hard to understand everything the NCAA does (and doesn't do).

Regarding your last point, I'm a 5'6" female with a normal BMI and I might weigh more than Ingram. He looks even slimmer than Amile did coming in. But I'm sure he can put on some muscle mass, at least enough to hold his own.

In think chanting is allowed but signs are frowned upon.

As an aside, Duke had four former ACC POYs in attendance last night, Grant Hill, Danny Ferry, Shane Battier and Nolan Smith. Most schools don't even have four ACC POYs.

[NSDukeFan]

I believe, according to NCAA regulation 2.5.4, "a school may have two decades of cheating to keep athletes eligible with fraudulent classes in many departments compromising the integrity of the university itself and then deny any wrongdoing when the NCAA investigates and the NCAA will deliberate for months before rendering a decision; however, if excited fans spontaneously chant a potential recruit's name, infractions are imminent."

Note, I haven't read the entire list of NCAA regulations, but I am pretty sure it is close to what I wrote.

[Des Esseintes]

In think chanting is allowed but signs are frowned upon.

As an aside, Duke had four former ACC POYs in attendance last night, Grant Hill, Danny Ferry, Shane Battier and Nolan Smith. Most schools don't even have four ACC POYs.

Indeed, storied though its history be, UCLA couldn't muster *one*.

[jimsumner]

Indeed, storied though its history be, UCLA couldn't muster *one*.

Ah the good old days, back when UCLA was a local rival. :)

[devildeac]

I believe, according to NCAA regulation 2.5.4, "a school may have two decades of cheating to keep athletes eligible with fraudulent classes in many departments compromising the integrity of the university itself and then deny any wrongdoing when the NCAA investigates and the NCAA will deliberate for months before rendering a decision; however, if excited fans spontaneously chant a potential recruit's name, infractions are imminent."

Note, I haven't read the entire list of NCAA regulations, but I am pretty sure it is close to what I wrote.

I actually think it's in rule AFAM 4.1 or 4.2, section g.p.a., but that number may have changed, several times in fact to keep the rule book eligible, err, current. :rolleyes:

[JPtheGame]

In think chanting is allowed but signs are frowned upon.

As an aside, Duke had four former ACC POYs in attendance last night, Grant Hill, Danny Ferry, Shane Battier and Nolan Smith. Most schools don't even have four ACC POYs.

It would be interesting to get some clarification on the signs. I was in Cameron the day Jabari declared for Duke and I can verify that the sign issue was a very big deal. Duke employees came around 3xs to caution the crown against signs mentioning jabari. They even collected several.

[AncientPsychicT]

Brandon Ingram won't be signing until the Spring (http://duke.247sports.com/Bolt/5-Star-2015-Brandon-Ingram-will-sign-in-the-spring-33006827) (surprise, surprise).

He may still commit pretty soon, but it won't be before the early signing period ends on Wednesday.

[superdave]

There has been little action on In gram's recruitment of late, but there is this gem about Unc:

Still, the academic scandal at UNC has complicated things and Ingram said that has impacted his thought process.

“Of course it affects my decision,” Ingram said. “I really like those guys a lot, and I really like all of the colleges a lot, so I’m just waiting to see what’s going to happen because it will affect my decision a lot. Seeing if they’re going to get into the NCAA Tournament, or seeing if they shy away from anything, it definitely does affect the decision though.”
(http://zagsblog.com/articles/brandon-ingram-still-mulling-6-schools-says-unc-academic-scandal-affects-decision/#more-126418)

The Crystal Ball has 53% to Duke but with some fall action to Kansas.
http://247sports.com/PlayerInstitution/Brandon-Ingram-at-Kinston-38818/CurrentExpertPredictions

[TexHawk]

The Crystal Ball has 53% to Duke but with some fall action to Kansas.
http://247sports.com/PlayerInstitution/Brandon-Ingram-at-Kinston-38818/CurrentExpertPredictions

Carlton Bragg committed to KU this week, and in his excitement he did the standard "I'm going to recruit Malik Newman, Brandon Ingram, Michael Jordan, and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar to come with me and we're going to take over the world!" stuff. I could have misheard him on the last two.

It will peter out shortly. I highly doubt Ingram will be coming to KU.

[lotusland]

Carlton Bragg committed to KU this week, and in his excitement he did the standard "I'm going to recruit Malik Newman, Brandon Ingram, Michael Jordan, and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar to come with me and we're going to take over the world!" stuff. I could have misheard him on the last two.

It will peter out shortly. I highly doubt Ingram will be coming to KU.

I don't think Jabbar has any eligibility left unless they give him back a year to compensate for freshmen being ineligible his first year. He may have lost a step or two anyway since those salad days of Lew Alcindor. Jordan can retake his AFAM classes at Kansas.

[BD80]

Carlton Bragg committed to KU this week, and in his excitement he did the standard "I'm going to recruit Malik Newman, Brandon Ingram, Michael Jordan, and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar to come with me and we're going to take over the world!" stuff. I could have misheard him on the last two.

It will peter out shortly. I highly doubt Ingram will be coming to KU.

Is this the kid who put on the KU hat at the announcement and then said: "I'm going to Kentucky" And then quickly corrected himself and said Kansas.

I'm sure calipari considers this to be an opening.

But I'm not sure you can trust much of what he said in the heat of the announcement

[jv001]

Is this the kid who put on the KU hat at the announcement and then said: "I'm going to Kentucky" And then quickly corrected himself and said Kansas.

I'm sure calipari considers this to be an opening.

But I'm not sure you can trust much of what he said in the heat of the announcement

I hope it wasn't a Tony Parker type announcement. GoDuke!