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kAzE
07-28-2014, 01:17 PM
We're still almost 4 months away from the start of the season, but I just came across this Bleacher Report article (sorry), and it got me thinking about Duke hoops again, specifically Quinn Cook, who is kind of the forgotten man with all the new faces and big names.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2139621-duke-basketball-what-will-quinn-cooks-role-be-for-blue-devils-in-2014-15

This will be Cook's final year on the team, and it's lone senior. He's been one of the most polarizing players to suit up for Duke in recent memory. On the one hand, he's a pretty steady point guard, always being able to hang around that 2:1 A:TO ratio, and has been generally a reliable long range shooter. On th other hand, he's been very hit or miss defensively. Sometimes, he'll channel his inner Wojo and be a disruptive force, but other times, he'll channel his inner turnstile and let opposing guards blow by him over and over.

It's super early to even think about defining roles on this team, which hasn't even begun practice yet, but where does everybody think Cook will ultimately end up in the rotation? Starting PG? Starter alongside Tyus Jones? Coming off the bench?

Kedsy
07-28-2014, 01:27 PM
...always being able to hang around that 2:1 A:TO ratio...

It's probably neither here nor there, but Quinn's lifetime A/TO ratio is better than 2.6:1. His worst season-long A/TO ratio during his time at Duke was 2.4:1. Just saying, that's a lot more impressive than "hanging around" 2:1.

kAzE
07-28-2014, 01:32 PM
It's probably neither here nor there, but Quinn's lifetime A/TO ratio is better than 2.6:1. His worst season-long A/TO ratio during his time at Duke was 2.4:1. Just saying, that's a lot more impressive than "hanging around" 2:1.

You're right, of course. I also neglected to mention that he's the highest scorer returning from last year's team. He was 3rd on the team, behind Jabari and Hood with 11.6 ppg

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
07-28-2014, 01:33 PM
He's been one of the most polarizing players to suit up for Duke in recent memory.

I thought the most polarizing figure was MP3, but I'll take the bait...

I'd like to see Quinn starting this year. I think it would indicate that he has matured and developed as a player, and that he has the best skill-set to lead our very talented team to victory. I think the "polarization" we have all witnessed is due to his hit and miss displays of talent. When he's "on," he is one of the better PGs we have had in the last decade or so. When he isn't, he looks overwhelmed, cranky, and out-of-place.

If he can continue to stroke from downtown while distributing the ball to the other four very talented players on the court, our offense will be extremely difficult to defend. Additionally, if he can dig deep into a bit of the TT nastiness on the other end of the floor, I'd love to see him fluster opposing PGs.

Anyway, having said all that, I suppose I'm not necessarily "predicting" that Quinn will be the starter, but rather hoping that he will. It will offer some veteran leadership at the PG position (the most important place to have a talented and calm individual) and give the younger players someone to learn from.

Olympic Fan
07-28-2014, 01:35 PM
There's not an option for "all of the above"

Over the course of the season, that would be my prediction.

And, BTW, Quinn's career A/TO rate of 2.64/1 is on pace to break the school record of 2.50/1 set by Wojo.

kAzE
07-28-2014, 01:37 PM
There's not an option for "all of the above"

Over the course of the season, that would be my prediction.

And, BTW, Quinn's career A/TO rate of 2.64/1 is on pace to break the school record of 2.50/1 set by Wojo.

I guess, the way I worded the poll, I meant for it mean: "What will his role ultimately become, once the rotation is more or less finalized for the stretch just before the postseason and thereafter."

And thanks for that stat, I definitely didn't know he was doing that well. I would have guessed Hurley held that record, but I just looked it up: 1074:534 for a 2.01 ratio. Ouch, that's a ton of turnovers!

CDu
07-28-2014, 02:00 PM
There's not an option for "all of the above"

Over the course of the season, that would be my prediction.

And, BTW, Quinn's career A/TO rate of 2.64/1 is on pace to break the school record of 2.50/1 set by Wojo.

Cook's main problem seems to be that the quality of his PG play diminishes when the calendar year changes. In ACC play, he's averaging just a little over 2:1 assist:turnover ratio, with a substantially lower APG numbers (~4 apg). In the pre-conference season, he's averaged about 6 APG and an assist:turnover ratio approaching 3:1.

That trend has held in each of the last two years. And it isn't just a function of easier opponents. He was the MVP of the pre-season tournament in 2012, which included a win over Louisville in which he was amazing.

I'm not exactly sure why his PG play and confidence seems to deteriorate in ACC play, but it has been noticeable in each of the last two years.

It will be interesting to see how he does this year, when he's arguably/likely not the best PG on the roster for the first time perhaps in his entire Duke career.

lotusland
07-28-2014, 02:25 PM
I guess, the way I worded the poll, I meant for it mean: "What will his role ultimately become, once the rotation is more or less finalized for the stretch just before the postseason and thereafter."

And thanks for that stat, I definitely didn't know he was doing that well. I would have guessed Hurley held that record, but I just looked it up: 1074:534 for a 2.01 ratio. Ouch, that's a ton of turnovers!

Ok I voted before reading this post so I voted for Quinn to start and Jones to come off the bench. I have no idea how good Jones will be but I haven't heard K make the kinds of statements about Jones' expected role as he did about Kyrie, AR, Jabari and Okafor coming in. For that reason I'll expect him to contribute but struggle at times as most freshman point guards do. I also really hope Quinn has an MP2 like senior year where he exceeds expectations and turns perceived weaknesses into strengths. I think QC is at least as likely to become a good defender and leader as Mason was to become a really good post scorer and serviceable foul shooter. I think guys like Nolan and Mason who struggle as under classmen but really put it together as upper classmen are the most fun to watch so that's what I'm rooting for. Also if both Quinn and Jones start with Rasheed at 3 I think we'll be a tad small. I'm hoping Jones2 is either the 3rd guard or splits reserve minutes with Jones1.

kAzE
07-28-2014, 02:44 PM
I thought the most polarizing figure was MP3, but I'll take the bait...


I wouldn't say MP3 is a polarizing player, because almost EVERYONE wanted him to either get more minutes or in some extreme cases, just flat out be the starter last year (ludicrous). The definition of a polarizing player is that some people really like him, while others really dislike him, with not much in the middle in the way of opinion. I didn't say QC is THE most polarizing guy, there's probably a better example, but he's definitely one of them. Just look at the poll, most people think he should start, but there's clearly no consensus.

For the record, I've always been in Cook's corner, I think he's a great PG, and this year, his first year playing with a dominant offensive big (MP2 was good, but he's no Okafor), I think he will finally get to that level that we've all hoped for.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
07-28-2014, 02:47 PM
I wouldn't say MP3 is a polarizing player, because almost EVERYONE wanted him to either get more minutes or in some extreme cases, just flat out be the starter last year (ludicrous). The definition of a polarizing player is that some people really like him, while others really dislike him, with not much in the middle in the way of opinion. I didn't say QC is THE most polarizing guy, there's probably a better example, but he's definitely one of them. Just look at the poll, most people think he should start, but there's clearly no consensus.

All I know is that whenever I voiced the thought that perhaps MP3 is exactly what he appears to be rather than a savior from on high who just needs more minutes to flourish, I got my message box flooded and got hammered with negativity. Perhaps he's just polarizing in my own mind.

wilko
07-28-2014, 02:50 PM
Respectfully - I cant answer this Q this far out.

If Quin is the same guy he was last season - then he may come closer to filling in the role TT had last yr.
If he comes in ready to work, 100% healthy, new & improved and ready to roll - its his job to lose. Hes earned THAT much.

I dont understand how he can move and cut so fluidly on O; but then have cinder-block feet when playing D. Whatever is the root of THAT issue needs to be over and done.

kAzE
07-28-2014, 02:52 PM
All I know is that whenever I voiced the thought that perhaps MP3 is exactly what he appears to be rather than a savior from on high who just needs more minutes to flourish, I got my message box flooded and got hammered with negativity. Perhaps he's just polarizing in my own mind.

Yeah, so everyone else was on the same pole, while you were just being moderate. I take it you weren't really hating on him, so that makes him more of a 1-pole guy than a truly polarizing figure. The negativity towards Cook isn't necessarily as prevalent on this message board, but in other places on the internet, people have been pretty brutal in their opinions towards him.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
07-28-2014, 03:15 PM
Of course I wasn't hating on the guy. Just beig what I saw as realistic about what to expect out of the kid. And, I also would love to be wrong. I just feel that between MP1 and MP2 and he meteoric unexpected rise of Zoubek in 2010, people are putting unwarranted hopes and dreams on the kid.

Anyways, I would love for MP3 to blow it out this year. And I would love Quinn to be he senior leader this team could really rally around.

But... I am glad we have lots of youg talent to fall back on... Just in case our fairy tale doesn't play out that way.

johnb
07-28-2014, 03:31 PM
Quinn is a warrior. He might get frustrated if he becomes an entrenched 9th man on the team, but it won't come to that. He'll be out there leading the team even if--as is likely--he's in a 3 person guard rotation for the big games (with Tyus and Rasheed). As for who is starting in February, I doubt the coaches know for sure.

flyingdutchdevil
07-28-2014, 03:32 PM
Cook's main problem seems to be that the quality of his PG play diminishes when the calendar year changes. In ACC play, he's averaging just a little over 2:1 assist:turnover ratio, with a substantially lower APG numbers (~4 apg). In the pre-conference season, he's averaged about 6 APG and an assist:turnover ratio approaching 3:1.

That trend has held in each of the last two years. And it isn't just a function of easier opponents. He was the MVP of the pre-season tournament in 2012, which included a win over Louisville in which he was amazing.

I'm not exactly sure why his PG play and confidence seems to deteriorate in ACC play, but it has been noticeable in each of the last two years.

It will be interesting to see how he does this year, when he's arguably/likely not the best PG on the roster for the first time perhaps in his entire Duke career.

Totally agree. IMO, I thought Cook was sometimes our second best player before January last year. And this was with Jabari and Hood playing well.

I am interested in understanding how Cook will respond this year. Coach K likes giving responsibility and talking up players before the season even starts, so I wonder if he'll talk up Cook (I think he'll say more great words about Okafor and Sulaimon, at the very least. He did this with Jabari, Hood, and Amile last year).

I voted that Cook will be a starter with Jones coming off the bench. Cook is one of our best 3pt shooters who is a solid distributor and ball handler. His D is suspect and his driving is mediocre at best (at least once opponents figured out how to stop his spin move). I'm not too sure if Jones will be a better defender or driver on the college level. It awaits to be seen. I really like Cook and love his attitude. I hope that Coach K makes him a captain and he leads vocally and by example.

All in all, I have a ton of optimism in Cook (I have optimism for all Duke players, but the optimism-to-skill level is highest for Cook in my book)

FerryFor50
07-28-2014, 03:35 PM
Cook's main problem seems to be that the quality of his PG play diminishes when the calendar year changes. In ACC play, he's averaging just a little over 2:1 assist:turnover ratio, with a substantially lower APG numbers (~4 apg). In the pre-conference season, he's averaged about 6 APG and an assist:turnover ratio approaching 3:1.

That trend has held in each of the last two years. And it isn't just a function of easier opponents. He was the MVP of the pre-season tournament in 2012, which included a win over Louisville in which he was amazing.

I'm not exactly sure why his PG play and confidence seems to deteriorate in ACC play, but it has been noticeable in each of the last two years.

It will be interesting to see how he does this year, when he's arguably/likely not the best PG on the roster for the first time perhaps in his entire Duke career.

I think it's a loss of focus. I think it could be a combination of:

1) Overconfidence from his stellar early season play causing him to go from distributor to trying to be the hero
2) Lack of focus due to fatigue of the season drawing out
3) Lack of focus due to the quality of teams not being perceived to be as good (ie, Wake is no KU)
4) Lack of focus due to changing minutes/roles
5) Lack of focus due to injury (like when he tweaked is ankle)

I think when you see "bad Quinn," it's generally when he's not concentrating, making lazy passes, trying to do too much.

CPDUKEGUY24
07-28-2014, 04:20 PM
I fully intend to see Quinn get his chance to take the reigns, and progress back into the starting PG spot. However; I wouldn't hesitate to say that any stumbles out of the gate, could spell Tyus-time and/or in general a loss of starting minutes for him. Either way, we have two great options at PG and I am excited to see them compete for the chance to lead the first team! It's not our mis-fortune to have these concerns.

gurufrisbee
07-28-2014, 06:50 PM
I know how sacrilegious it is suggest Coach K isn't perfect around this board, but I really felt he badly misused Cook last year. The offense never worked half as well without him on the floor. His penetration and shooting are badly needed - they were last year even with Jabari and Rodney (whose skills both ruined any offensive flow and team offensive concepts). And while his defense came and went - so did every other Duke guard. Cook needs to start, he needs to be shown confidence, and he needs to be the leader. I think - and I truly hope - Duke rolls out Cook, Jones, and Sheed in a three guard line up with Okafor and Amile.

Native
07-28-2014, 07:19 PM
FWIW, I've been hearing good things about Quinn's improvement over the summer, particularly with regard to perimeter shooting.

uh_no
07-28-2014, 07:39 PM
FWIW, I've been hearing good things about Quinn's improvement over the summer, particularly with regard to perimeter shooting.

That's interesting.

Perimeter shooting is not what's going to keep him on the floor as a PG....improvement in decision making on the floor will do that, especially composure in late game/clock situations, where we often fell apart last year.

What perimeter shooting will allow him to do is serve as a more effective off ball guard who can pop the three and throw a nice dime.

I think the biggest thing he can do to ensure being on the floor is be more effective on the perimeter on D. We have a lot of players on this team, almost all of them will be gunning to be on the floor. If one of the other guys (matt, grayson) can provide significantly better D with a comparably productive offense, then I imagine Quinn's minutes will decrease really fast. Of course this is assuming an awful lot, not the least of which, that tyus is the player many predict him to be.

Now of course, K values experience...which bodes well for quinn, but there are also examples of seniors ending up with significantly diminished roles as the teams changed around them. I'm not suggesting this is what WILL happen to quinn, but I think all the 4 options on the top of this poll are certainly viable, even if not equally probable. I certainly hope the best for quinn, but my personal "prediction" if you will (and absolutely meaningless, at that) is that he will see himself on the bench in crunch time.

I've had lengthy posts here on this topic in the past, but the crux of the argument is that he has not showed much improvement over the past two years in some of the weakest aspects of his game, namely on ball defense, and pressure decision making, each of which contributed significantly to many of our losses last year (certainly not blaming quinn for the losses, simply pointing out that his weaknesses aligned with areas in which the team as a whole was also weak). While there are instances of significant senior year improvement, such change is certainly not the rule, and often the exception.

I hope that folks will understand that my prediction of quinn's future does not in any way constitute my desire for quinn's future, and I, like everyone else, hope he makes huge improvement.

Kedsy
07-28-2014, 10:46 PM
What perimeter shooting will allow him to do is serve as a more effective off ball guard who can pop the three and throw a nice dime.

^ This is what I'm expecting from Quinn this year. A combo guard playing mostly off the ball. Some of Coach K's post-season comments hinted at this, and the fact that he's been working on his shooting reinforces it. At least that's my take.

OldPhiKap
07-28-2014, 11:07 PM
I think Quinn gets the nod unless proven otherwise. As he should.

Having said that, he and Sheed will be pushed by a lot of talent behind them. Rise up, or step aside. That is the nature of competition.

I expect The upperclassmen to step up and lead.

Henderson
07-29-2014, 12:40 AM
I think Quinn gets the nod unless proven otherwise. As he should.

Having said that, he and Sheed will be pushed by a lot of talent behind them. Rise up, or step aside. That is the nature of competition.

I expect The upperclassmen to step up and lead.

^That. But I'd say that Quinn is the presumptive nod, with likely changes later in the season from game to game and situation to situation.

I have to assume that there is more to Tyus Jones' skill level than I've seen. It's that "more" than I'm anxious to see. He might beat out Quinn; he might not. I haven't seen anything yet that says to me, "Here's our guy." But taking into consideration the judgments of people who judge players much better than I do, he must be much better than I've seen. So color me "Really Looking Forward to Seeing How It Plays Out."

In case my lack of conviction isn't apparent, I declined to vote in the poll, because "I have no idea over the course of a whole season" wasn't an option.

P.S. We will have a very talented, diverse, and deep backcourt next year with substantial experience. I like it.

UrinalCake
07-29-2014, 02:49 AM
Glad to read this thread and see so much support for Quinn. Many fans seem ready to turn the team over to Tyus, perhaps falling victim to "shiny new object syndrome," and forget that Quinn has a ton of talent and has at times been an outstanding player.

I think his problems have been entirely psychological. He seems to struggle with knowing his role - when to facilitate and when to attack. When Ryan got injured two seasons ago, Quinn increased his scoring to help offset the loss, but stopped "running" the team IMO. I thought that last season he could settle more into the role of floor general, having so many scorers around him, but he again struggled with leadership and perhaps having such talented, younger guys caused an imbalance of power. Just speculation on my part.

This season I'm hoping he can pull it together. We've seen plenty of examples of players who make a big leap late in their careers - Zoubek and Nolan obviously, also Wojo became almost an entirely different player his junior year. K has a tough job of balancing two talented point guards, but it's a good problem to have.

77devil
07-29-2014, 09:34 AM
I expect the rotation thread is coming soon.

johnb
07-29-2014, 09:42 AM
I think his problems have been entirely psychological..

That may be true, but it didn't help his assist:TO ratio when the team's most frequent shooter went through a lengthy shooting slump.

uh_no
07-29-2014, 09:52 AM
I expect the rotation thread is coming soon.

you mean this one?

http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?33629-Musings-Of-2014-15-Starters-amp-Rotation-Players&highlight=rotation

it's been around since march :)

BlueSheed
07-29-2014, 11:18 AM
I hope Cook and Jones don't start together for defensive purposes. K has started two small guards in the past but in most cases one of them has been an exceptional defender ie Thorton, Duhon. I think the rotation is going to be tough this year to manage having an extremely talented freshmen that fans want to see and a highly skilled senior pg along with a bundle of shooting guards.

wk2109
07-29-2014, 12:25 PM
I hope Cook and Jones don't start together for defensive purposes. K has started two small guards in the past but in most cases one of them has been an exceptional defender ie Thorton, Duhon.

Quinn Cook and Seth Curry, neither of whom is known as an exceptional defender, started in 2013. They're both small guards.

And Tyler's last name is Thornton.


I think the rotation is going to be tough this year to manage having an extremely talented freshmen that fans want to see and a highly skilled senior pg along with a bundle of shooting guards.

I don't think Coach K cares at all about who fans want to see. If he did, we'd have seen a lot more of Marshall Plumlee, Michael Gbinije and several other guys during the past few seasons.

I don't want to make it too simple, but I think it's highly likely that if K believes Quinn is one of the three best perimeter players, he's going to start.

kAzE
07-29-2014, 12:45 PM
I'm probably in the minority here, but I really believe Justise Winslow is going to be one of the top 3 players on the team for minutes played. He's like a mini-LeBron on defense, and is capable of guarding up to 4 different positions on the court. His only weakness is perimeter shooting, but people have been saying he's getting much better in that area. So if he's a starter, that means one of the 3 guards will have to come off the bench. I think Sulaimon starts, because with him and Winslow, it gives us some really nice size, length, and quickness on the perimeter, which would allow us to play the type of pressure defense that we've been trying to do for years (largely unsuccessfully).

So if that happens, there can only be 1 point guard in the starting lineup. I agree with the other posters here that it should be Cook's job to lose, so he will be the guy at the start of the year. Then it depends on how he plays, and how Jones plays. However, if Jones is as good as I think he is, it's going to be a competition, and I believe it will be a very close one between the freshman and the senior. I'm excited to see how it plays out.

Wow, our top 6 is unbelievable, it could be our best team since 2011:

C: Okafor
PF: Jefferson
SF: Winslow
SG: Sulaimon
PG: Cook
6: T. Jones

I'm really excited to see Jefferson play his natural position, for once. I think he and Sulaimon are going to be much improved as a juniors.

Duvall
07-29-2014, 12:50 PM
I'm probably in the minority here, but I really believe Justise Winslow is going to be one of the top 3 players on the team for minutes played. He's like a mini-LeBron on defense, and is capable of guarding up to 4 different positions on the court. So if he's a starter, that means one of the 3 guards will have to come off the bench.

Except...Winslow doesn't have to start to be among the team leaders in minutes played. Not that hard to divide 120 minutes four ways.

kAzE
07-29-2014, 12:54 PM
Except...Winslow doesn't have to start to be among the team leaders in minutes played. Not that hard to divide 120 minutes four ways.

Nah, I think he starts. Like I said, I know people are going to disagree with me, and that's fine. I just think he was built (and recruited) to guard the other team's best player. He's going to be on the court when the other team's best guy is on the court. That will be his job, and I think he will do it extremely well.

Kedsy
07-29-2014, 01:22 PM
Nah, I think he starts. Like I said, I know people are going to disagree with me, and that's fine. I just think he was built (and recruited) to guard the other team's best player. He's going to be on the court when the other team's best guy is on the court. That will be his job, and I think he will do it extremely well.

Alternatively, he could be used like Mike Dunleavy in 2000. Coming off the bench at possibly three positions and giving us many different looks with just one guy. Personally, that makes more sense to me.

CDu
07-29-2014, 01:59 PM
Alternatively, he could be used like Mike Dunleavy in 2000. Coming off the bench at possibly three positions and giving us many different looks with just one guy. Personally, that makes more sense to me.

But that could be accomplished just as easily with Winslow starting. Just bring in a different 6th man depending on the situation.

flyingdutchdevil
07-29-2014, 02:58 PM
Quinn Cook and Seth Curry, neither of whom is known as an exceptional defender, started in 2013. They're both small guards.

And Tyler's last name is Thornton.

Cook and Curry had Sulaimon - who looked like a really solid defender his freshman year (much better than his sophomore year), Kelly (arguably the best defender on that team), and Mason Plumlee (a giant amongst men. He was a senior and absolutely competent on one-on-one situations).

This year, our front court and wings are young and unproven. I know a lot has been said of Winslow's D and Okafor's ability to contain 5s, but we also thought that last year's team could be amazing on the perimeter. Oh boy were we wrong.

Kedsy
07-29-2014, 03:01 PM
But that could be accomplished just as easily with Winslow starting. Just bring in a different 6th man depending on the situation.

Not really, if you have a seven man rotation.

This may be semantic, but if Justise is 6th man and you...

...need more quickness, you bring him in for Amile (or maybe even Jahlil).

...need more size/bulk, you bring him in for Rasheed (or Tyus or Quinn).

...need more defense, you bring him in for Tyus or Quinn.

So you can create different looks for different game situations.

It doesn't work quite the same way if Quinn (for example) is 6th man. If you bring Quinn in for Tyus or Rasheed you don't really gain a new look or fix a need (they're all different players and do things differently, but their strengths are more or less the same, other than Rasheed's slightly worse PG abilities and slightly better defensive abilities); if you bring Quinn in for Justise, then Justise is off the floor, no matter what the need; if you bring in Quinn for Amile (or Jahlil), you get a new look and fix potential needs for shooting or quickness, but you'd know in advance if the opponent had a lineup where you could afford to do that, and if that's the case, you probably would have started Quinn to begin with.

If your goal is to show different looks at the most appropriate times, it makes the most sense (at least to me) for your most versatile player to come off the bench.

kAzE
07-29-2014, 03:08 PM
Not really, if you have a seven man rotation.

This may be semantic, but if Justise is 6th man and you...

...need more quickness, you bring him in for Amile (or maybe even Jahlil).

...need more size/bulk, you bring him in for Rasheed (or Tyus or Quinn).

...need more defense, you bring him in for Tyus or Quinn.

So you can create different looks for different game situations.

It doesn't work quite the same way if Quinn (for example) is 6th man. If you bring Quinn in for Tyus or Rasheed you don't really gain a new look or fix a need (they're all different players and do things differently, but their strengths are more or less the same, other than Rasheed's slightly worse PG abilities and slightly better defensive abilities); if you bring Quinn in for Justise, then Justise is off the floor, no matter what the need; if you bring in Quinn for Amile (or Jahlil), you get a new look and fix potential needs for shooting or quickness, but you'd know in advance if the opponent had a lineup where you could afford to do that, and if that's the case, you probably would have started Quinn to begin with.

If your goal is to show different looks at the most appropriate times, it makes the most sense (at least to me) for your most versatile player to come off the bench.

From what I've learned about Coach K for the past 22 seasons that I've watched Duke basketball and Team USA basketball for the past 10 years, he likes the bolded part. It's more important to him than anything else, including versatility. How else can you explain Tyler Thornton as a starter last year? Winslow is like Thornton, but bigger and more athletic. You could be right, and that's what a lot of coaches would do, but this is Coach K we're talking about. That's why I think he just straight up starts.

CDu
07-29-2014, 03:11 PM
Not really, if you have a seven man rotation.

This may be semantic, but if Justise is 6th man and you...

...need more quickness, you bring him in for Amile (or maybe even Jahlil).

...need more size/bulk, you bring him in for Rasheed (or Tyus or Quinn).

...need more defense, you bring him in for Tyus or Quinn.

So you can create different looks for different game situations.

It doesn't work quite the same way if Quinn (for example) is 6th man. If you bring Quinn in for Tyus or Rasheed you don't really gain a new look or fix a need (they're all different players and do things differently, but their strengths are more or less the same, other than Rasheed's slightly worse PG abilities and slightly better defensive abilities); if you bring Quinn in for Justise, then Justise is off the floor, no matter what the need; if you bring in Quinn for Amile (or Jahlil), you get a new look and fix potential needs for shooting or quickness, but you'd know in advance if the opponent had a lineup where you could afford to do that, and if that's the case, you probably would have started Quinn to begin with.

If your goal is to show different looks at the most appropriate times, it makes the most sense (at least to me) for your most versatile player to come off the bench.

I disagree. I think it works exactly the same way. Let's say you start with Winslow at SF and Cook on the bench. If you need more size (unlikely if Winslow is starting at SF, but hear me out), you bring in another big for a guard and move Winslow to SG. If you need more quickness, you bring in Cook for a big and move Winslow to PF. If you need more shooting, you bring in Cook for either Winslow or Jefferson.

It makes little difference whether Winslow comes in off the bench to various spots or whether he switches to various spots once the first sub comes in. You're just starting the game with a different particular alignment and thus making a different set of adjustments. Winslow starting or sitting at first just changes the lineup at the start of the game; not the team's flexibility to adjust thereafter.

flyingdutchdevil
07-29-2014, 03:18 PM
Not really, if you have a seven man rotation.

This may be semantic, but if Justise is 6th man and you...

...need more quickness, you bring him in for Amile (or maybe even Jahlil).

...need more size/bulk, you bring him in for Rasheed (or Tyus or Quinn).

...need more defense, you bring him in for Tyus or Quinn.

So you can create different looks for different game situations.

It doesn't work quite the same way if Quinn (for example) is 6th man. If you bring Quinn in for Tyus or Rasheed you don't really gain a new look or fix a need (they're all different players and do things differently, but their strengths are more or less the same, other than Rasheed's slightly worse PG abilities and slightly better defensive abilities); if you bring Quinn in for Justise, then Justise is off the floor, no matter what the need; if you bring in Quinn for Amile (or Jahlil), you get a new look and fix potential needs for shooting or quickness, but you'd know in advance if the opponent had a lineup where you could afford to do that, and if that's the case, you probably would have started Quinn to begin with.

If your goal is to show different looks at the most appropriate times, it makes the most sense (at least to me) for your most versatile player to come off the bench.

Can't you argue the following if Justise starts and either Tyus/Quinn comes off the bench (assuming Tyus/Quinn, Rasheed, Justise, Amile, and Okafor start):

...need more quickness, you bring in Tyus/Quinn for Amile (or maybe even Jahlil) and move Justise to the 4.

...need more shooting, you bring in Tyus/Quinn for Amile or Justise.

...need more steady ball handling, you bring in Tyus/Quinn for Amile or Justise.

I agree with CDu - it can work with Justise starting as well. He just provides different things off the bench than Tyus/Quinn.

Justise - even without playing a second of college ball - does seem like a Swiss Army Knife (Houston Army Knife, to be exact). He will be a very useful player.

I feel that Justise will start, because his defensive reputation will trump our need for 3pt shooting. This is pure speculation of course. But after a disastrous defensive year last year, I would think that Coach K is going to go with D.

wk2109
07-29-2014, 03:25 PM
Cook and Curry had Sulaimon - who looked like a really solid defender his freshman year (much better than his sophomore year), Kelly (arguably the best defender on that team), and Mason Plumlee (a giant amongst men. He was a senior and absolutely competent on one-on-one situations).

This year, our front court and wings are young and unproven. I know a lot has been said of Winslow's D and Okafor's ability to contain 5s, but we also thought that last year's team could be amazing on the perimeter. Oh boy were we wrong.

I was just responding to the poster's point about small guards.

To respond to your point, I think it's reasonable to expect that Quinn and Rasheed will be better individual and team defenders than they were in 2013. Also, Ryan Kelly obviously missed a huge portion of that season and Mason often played matador defense to stay out of foul trouble. Thus, I don't think it's too far-fetched to think that a Jones-Cook-Sulaimon-Jefferson-Okafor lineup could be comparable to the 2013 team defensively (or perhaps even better).

kAzE
07-29-2014, 03:26 PM
Can't you argue the following if Justise starts and either Tyus/Quinn comes off the bench (assuming Tyus/Quinn, Rasheed, Justise, Amile, and Okafor start):

...need more quickness, you bring in Tyus/Quinn for Amile (or maybe even Jahlil) and move Justise to the 4.

...need more shooting, you bring in Tyus/Quinn for Amile or Justise.

...need more steady ball handling, you bring in Tyus/Quinn for Amile or Justise.

I agree with CDu - it can work with Justise starting as well. He just provides different things off the bench than Tyus/Quinn.

Justise - even without playing a second of college ball - does seem like a Swiss Army Knife (Houston Army Knife, to be exact). He will be a very useful player.

I feel that Justise will start, because his defensive reputation will trump our need for 3pt shooting. This is pure speculation of course. But after a disastrous defensive year last year, I would think that Coach K is going to go with D.

Excellent points, CDu as well. But also, let's not forget that Winslow is far more than just a defensive stopper. He also has a reputation as a pretty decent ball handler and passer. Here's his scouting report on ESPN regarding his strengths:

"A physical multiple position defender that can keep the ball in front of him with lateral foot speed and chest to chest bumps. He will not hesitate to take a charge from any position. He accepts the challenge on defense and has an all business approach. He also is a unselfish play maker off the bounce."

That sounds a little bit like another guy who wore #33 at Duke.

Check out his mixtape from his senior year of HS: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WKu6EoR1pFY

Yes, it's a highlight tape, but you can tell he's pretty good off the bounce. Plus, he's a lefty, which always helps a little for some reason offensively.

Duvall
07-29-2014, 03:28 PM
Excellent points, CDu as well. But also, let's not forget that Winslow is far more than just a defensive stopper. He also has a reputation as a pretty decent ball handler and passer.

Let's just ease up a bit, okay? He's still a freshman with exactly zero minutes logged at this level. "Defensive stopper" talk can wait until December, at least.

flyingdutchdevil
07-29-2014, 03:30 PM
From what I've learned about Coach K for the past 22 seasons that I've watched Duke basketball and Team USA basketball for the past 10 years, he likes the bolded part. It's more important to him than anything else, including versatility. How else can you explain Tyler Thornton as a starter last year? Winslow is like Thornton, but bigger and more athletic. You could be right, and that's what a lot of coaches would do, but this is Coach K we're talking about. That's why I think he just straight up starts.

If this is true, we can expect four years of positive and negative posts on the next polarizing player amongst Duke fans.

Justise may be like a bigger and more athletic Thornton on the defensive end, but he is capable of being 10x better on the offensive end (Thornton had a better 3pt shot. I think Justise may be better at every other offensive skillset)

kAzE
07-29-2014, 03:37 PM
Let's just ease up a bit, okay? He's still a freshman with exactly zero minutes logged at this level. "Defensive stopper" talk can wait until December, at least.

He's also widely (and justifiably . . . justisefiably?) regarded as a top 10 pick in the NBA draft next year. I don't think high expectations are out of the question here at all. To me, he seems like he could be Michael Kidd-Gilchrist with a better offensive arsenal.


If this is true, we can expect four years of positive and negative posts on the next polarizing player amongst Duke fans.

Justise may be like a bigger and more athletic Thornton on the defensive end, but he is capable of being 10x better on the offensive end (Thornton had a better 3pt shot. I think Justise may be better at every other offensive skillset)

I 100% agree, I just meant that he brings a level of pit bull and seriousness on defense that reminds me of Thornton. He's obviously much more talented.

flyingdutchdevil
07-29-2014, 03:37 PM
Check out his mixtape from his senior year of HS: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WKu6EoR1pFY

Yes, it's a highlight tape, but you can tell he's pretty good off the bounce. Plus, he's a lefty, which always helps a little for some reason offensively.

He doesn't miss! Kidding aside, that is a terrible highlight video. I honestly can't stand it when slow-mo is incorporated in highlight videos. In a game where speed is so essential, you cannot tell how quickly Justise really is.

Rant aside, I with your assessment. Justise has the potential to be great defender at Duke. He has the tools; let's just see if he can a) learn K's insane defensive schemes and b) live up to the lofty expectations. If Sulaimon leaves after his junior year, I'll need another player to have a man-crush on. Justise fits that fill.

Kedsy
07-29-2014, 03:59 PM
I disagree. I think it works exactly the same way. Let's say you start with Winslow at SF and Cook on the bench. If you need more size (unlikely if Winslow is starting at SF, but hear me out), you bring in another big for a guard and move Winslow to SG.

This is where I think your argument fails. Assuming a 7-man rotation, the other big is Marshall, who I don't think will play alongside Jahlil very often. Justise as 6th man allows you to play the tight 7-man rotation and still have your versatility. Quinn as 6th man doesn't really accomplish that.

Kedsy
07-29-2014, 04:07 PM
Can't you argue the following if Justise starts and either Tyus/Quinn comes off the bench (assuming Tyus/Quinn, Rasheed, Justise, Amile, and Okafor start):

...need more quickness, you bring in Tyus/Quinn for Amile (or maybe even Jahlil) and move Justise to the 4.

Yes, this part works the same way. But as I said in my earlier post, if you know quickness is going to be at a premium you probably start Quinn in the first place.



...need more shooting, you bring in Tyus/Quinn for Amile or Justise.


But if you sub someone in for Justise you took your Swiss army knife off the floor.



...need more steady ball handling, you bring in Tyus/Quinn for Amile or Justise.


This is unlikely to happen, assuming your primary PG can handle, which both Quinn and Tyus can. How often do you need two ball handlers? On the other hand, Justise off the bench can provide additional size and/or additional defense, which are both often needs as a game plays out. In other words, Quinn off the bench can give you one, maybe two different looks. Justise off the bench gives you three, maybe four. The team has more looks and is more versatile with Justise as 6th man.

Kedsy
07-29-2014, 04:21 PM
To me, he seems like he could be Michael Kidd-Gilchrist with a better offensive arsenal.

I think you may not be remembering just how good MKG was in college. He was the #3 high school senior (according to RSCI) and was taken #2 in the NBA draft. There's a huge difference between #3 and #13 (Justise's rank) in the RSCI and an even bigger difference between #2 in the Draft and "widely regarded as a top 10 pick" (especially since he's #23 in SBNation's mock, outside the lottery in NBADraftRoom's mock and not in CBSSports' or NBADraft.net's mocks at all).

There's almost no way he'll be MKG. Certainly no way he'll be better than MKG as you seem to imply.

flyingdutchdevil
07-29-2014, 04:29 PM
I think you may not be remembering just how good MKG was in college. He was the #3 high school senior (according to RSCI) and was taken #2 in the NBA draft. There's a huge difference between #3 and #13 (Justise's rank) in the RSCI and an even bigger difference between #2 in the Draft and "widely regarded as a top 10 pick" (especially since he's #23 in SBNation's mock, outside the lottery in NBADraftRoom's mock and not in CBSSports' or NBADraft.net's mocks at all).

There's almost no way he'll be MKG. Certainly no way he'll be better than MKG as you seem to imply.

While MKG's D was exceptional, what made him stand out to me was his leadership, which was highly irregular for a freshman. While it's rare to find a defensive freshman as good as MKG, I think it's a lot harder to find a freshman leader like MKG.

I would have loved to see MKG in a Duke jersey. He would have fit in.

CDu
07-29-2014, 05:12 PM
This is where I think your argument fails. Assuming a 7-man rotation, the other big is Marshall, who I don't think will play alongside Jahlil very often. Justise as 6th man allows you to play the tight 7-man rotation and still have your versatility. Quinn as 6th man doesn't really accomplish that.

No, I don't think so. If you're assuming that Plumlee isn't playing in my situation, then you're assuming that Plumlee isn't playing in your situation.

Let's say your 7 men are T. Jones, Cook, Sulaimon, Winslow, M. Jones/Ojeleye, Jefferson, and Okafor (with Plumlee just playing as needed 5-10 mpg).

If you start T. Jones, Cook, Sulaimon, Jefferson, and Okafor, you are making a conscious decision to "go small" at the start of the game. With Winslow as the first sub off the bench, you can bring him in for any of T. Jones (moving Cook to PG and Sulaimon to SG), Cook (moving Sulaimon to SG), Sulaimon (straight SF for SF swap), or Jefferson (with Winslow playing PF). Nice versatility.

If you start Winslow instead of Cook, you are making a conscious decision to "go fairly big" at the start of the game. But Cook can then come in for any of T. Jones (straight PG for PG swap), Sulaimon (with Cook playing SG), Winslow (to "go small"), or Jefferson (with Winslow moving to PF).

Those are the exact same options. The exact same versatility. The versatility Winslow provides isn't restricted to him being a sub. It just matters that he's on the floor at some point for that versatility to be utilized. But once he's on the floor, the versatility can be achieved regardless of whether he started or came off the bench.

In response to your comment, if Plumlee isn't in the rotation, then if you wanted to "go big", then M. Jones/Ojeleye comes in for one of the littles. That's as big as you can go in either lineup, and having Winslow on the bench doesn't allow us to go bigger than having Winslow in the starting lineup.


Yes, this part works the same way. But as I said in my earlier post, if you know quickness is going to be at a premium you probably start Quinn in the first place.

If you're going to make that argument, then one can just as easily say "if you know size is going to be an issue, you probably start Winslow in the first place." The whole point of versatility is to be able to adjust mid-game when needed.


But if you sub someone in for Justise you took your Swiss army knife off the floor.

Right. So have the sub be for Jefferson instead. Knife absence solved.


This is unlikely to happen, assuming your primary PG can handle, which both Quinn and Tyus can. How often do you need two ball handlers? On the other hand, Justise off the bench can provide additional size and/or additional defense, which are both often needs as a game plays out. In other words, Quinn off the bench can give you one, maybe two different looks. Justise off the bench gives you three, maybe four. The team has more looks and is more versatile with Justise as 6th man.

But if you're starting with Winslow on the bench, aren't you almost by definition starting Cook and Jones together? Again, starting Cook and (insert name of guy Winslow comes in for) and bringing in Winslow for (somebody) as the first sub is no more versatile than starting Winslow and (insert name of person you sub out) and bringing in Cook for (somebody) as the first sub. It's just a difference in what unit is started, but the versatility achieved with the substitution is identical.

kAzE
07-29-2014, 05:33 PM
I think you may not be remembering just how good MKG was in college. He was the #3 high school senior (according to RSCI) and was taken #2 in the NBA draft. There's a huge difference between #3 and #13 (Justise's rank) in the RSCI and an even bigger difference between #2 in the Draft and "widely regarded as a top 10 pick" (especially since he's #23 in SBNation's mock, outside the lottery in NBADraftRoom's mock and not in CBSSports' or NBADraft.net's mocks at all).

There's almost no way he'll be MKG. Certainly no way he'll be better than MKG as you seem to imply.

Really? Is it that big of a stretch? MKG isn't even that good in the NBA . . . . I definitely don't think Winslow has NO chance to be better than him. He hasn't even played a single game. It's way too early to be talking in absolutes.

I agree that MKG was regarded as a better prospect because he's 2 inches taller, longer, and probably more athletic. But in terms of the way they play, and how versatile they are defensively, Winslow is like MKG in many ways. I'm also pretty sure Winslow can bring more to the table offensively. There's no denying how crippling MKG's complete and total inability to shoot has sucked his value in the NBA. If they were to re-draft the 2012 draft, I'm fairly certain he would have gone later than Dame Lillard, Brad Beal, Andre Drummond, and Harrison Barnes. Maybe even later than Miles Plumlee, Jared Sullinger, Draymond Green, Terrence Jones, and Terrence Ross. That would have put him in the #5-10 category. He got drafted #2, but he certainly hasn't lived up to that status. I actually DO think Winslow will be a better NBA player than MKG.

Lastly, I'm not even the first guy to compare him to MKG: Chad Ford's big board, which came out the day after the 2014 draft had Winslow at #7, and said: "He's the MKG of this draft."

You can check it out if you have insider:

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draft/mock/?season=2015&version=1

Duvall
07-29-2014, 05:39 PM
Well, I agree that MKG was regarded as a better prospect because he's 2 inches taller, longer, and probably more athletic. But in terms of the way they play, and how versatile they are defensively, Winslow is like MKG in many ways. I'm also pretty sure Winslow can bring more to the table offensively. There's no denying how crippling MKG's inability to shoot has sucked his value in the NBA.

But it *wasn't* crippling for MKG's offensive game in high school, which is where we have seen Winslow play to this point.

kAzE
07-29-2014, 05:45 PM
But it *wasn't* crippling for MKG's offensive game in high school, which is where we have seen Winslow play to this point.

Right, I never said he was definitively going to be better than MKG, although I believe he has a great chance to do that. My argument was to dispute Kedsy's claim that Winslow has absolutely no chance to be better than MKG. Winslow shot 34% from 3 his senior year, which isn't great, but his shot probably isn't broken, like MKG's.

Kedsy
07-29-2014, 05:50 PM
No, I don't think so. If you're assuming that Plumlee isn't playing in my situation, then you're assuming that Plumlee isn't playing in your situation.

No, I do assume Marshall will be the 7th guy. I assume he'll play all the minutes that Jahlil does not play, meaning the center position isn't really relevant in this discussion and meaning that the 6th man is all the "depth" we'll employ (outside of blowouts). That's why I think it's better for the more versatile player to come off the bench.

That said, it's also possible we'll play an 8-man rotation with Matt Jones as a 10 mpg perimeter player. I don't think that changes the equations we're discussing in a qualitative way, however.


If you're going to make that argument, then one can just as easily say "if you know size is going to be an issue, you probably start Winslow in the first place." The whole point of versatility is to be able to adjust mid-game when needed.

Yes, I do think that if you know size is an issue in advance we might need to start Justise in some games.


Right. So have the sub be for Jefferson instead. Knife absence solved.

Not really. Justise isn't going to play 40 minutes.


But if you're starting with Winslow on the bench, aren't you almost by definition starting Cook and Jones together? Again, starting Cook and (insert name of guy Winslow comes in for) and bringing in Winslow for (somebody) as the first sub is no more versatile than starting Winslow and (insert name of person you sub out) and bringing in Cook for (somebody) as the first sub. It's just a difference in what unit is started, but the versatility achieved with the substitution is identical.

I hear you but I don't necessarily agree. Perhaps my point is too subtle (or perhaps you're right and there's no difference, though I don't think so or I wouldn't still be typing), but as I see it, Coach K likes to force other teams to adjust to Duke, rather than the other way around. So if we start 3-guards, the opponent will have to take that into account, either by also going small or by trying to get the best of a "double mismatch" situation.

The only exceptions would be teams with big but also very quick and very skilled SGs/SFs, who would have a straight up mismatch against either Quinn or Rasheed. Those games, which I assume will be pretty rare, will probably necessitate Justise starting.

But in all other situations, the game would start on our terms. As the game moves along, however, certain matchups might not be working out how we wanted them to, in which case the versatility Justise provides, being able to come in and patch up a problem with any of size, quickness, or defensive shortcomings will be incredibly valuable.

Conversely, if we start Justise and bring Quinn (or Tyus) off the bench, the other teams can gameplan for that, and if an unanticipated problem arises, we won't really have an answer off the bench, because our sub doesn't really bring anything different than the people he'd be replacing -- unless the problem is quickness/shooting, but that would necessitate going small and if we're able to go that small, and we need to to counteract an opponent's strength, then (just like the exception case I mentioned above in Justise's favor) we'd probably start the game like that (small), anyway.

That's my take on it. There is a difference in whether the versatile player starts or not, even though that difference primarily manifests itself in the pre-game, planning stage.

tommy
07-29-2014, 05:54 PM
Really? Is it that big of a stretch? MKG isn't even that good in the NBA . . . . I definitely don't think Winslow has NO chance to be better than him. He hasn't even played a single game. It's way too early to be talking in absolutes.

I agree that MKG was regarded as a better prospect because he's 2 inches taller, longer, and probably more athletic. But in terms of the way they play, and how versatile they are defensively, Winslow is like MKG in many ways. I'm also pretty sure Winslow can bring more to the table offensively. There's no denying how crippling MKG's complete and total inability to shoot has sucked his value in the NBA. If they were to re-draft the 2012 draft, I'm fairly certain he would have gone later than Dame Lillard, Brad Beal, Andre Drummond, and Harrison Barnes. Maybe even later than Miles Plumlee, Jared Sullinger, Draymond Green, Terrence Jones, and Terrence Ross. That would have put him in the #5-10 category. He got drafted #2, but he certainly hasn't lived up to that status. I actually DO think Winslow will be a better NBA player than MKG.

Lastly, I'm not even the first guy to compare him to MKG: Chad Ford's big board, which came out the day after the 2014 draft had Winslow at #7, and said: "He's the MKG of this draft."

You can check it out if you have insider:

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draft/mock/?season=2015&version=1

This part of the discussion is certainly off the topic of the thread, but I don't think the question is, or should be, is Winslow going to be as good, better, or not as good an NBA player as is Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. I think the question of primary interest on a Duke basketball board is whether he's going to be comparable in any way to MKG as a college player.

I do think the jack-of-all trades nature of their games are similar. But MKG, as a freshman on a loaded Kentucky team, averaged 12 points and 7.5 boards and -- as a freshman -- was a key leader on a national championship team. I happen to think that Justise has a wider variety of offensive skills than MKG had as a freshman, but still, MKG was very, very impressive, a true difference maker in his one year at Kentucky. I don't see Justise getting those same kinds of numbers as a freshman at Duke. He'll definitely get them in future year(s), but I don't think he'll get them right away like MKG did. That's not to say he won't be a critical piece of Duke's success this coming year -- I believe he absolutely will be, in ways not limited to just offensive numbers -- but let's not forget how good MKG really was as a freshman at Kentucky.

Kedsy
07-29-2014, 05:56 PM
Really? Is it that big of a stretch? MKG isn't even that good in the NBA . . . . I definitely don't think Winslow has NO chance to be better than him. He hasn't even played a single game. It's way too early to be talking in absolutes.

MKG was a first-team All American. How he's fared in the NBA isn't relevant to a discussion about how well Justise Winslow might perform in college. The possibility that Justise (especially as a freshman) will be better than a first-team All American is soooooo remote, it might as well be absolute.

CDu
07-29-2014, 06:06 PM
No, I do assume Marshall will be the 7th guy. I assume he'll play all the minutes that Jahlil does not play, meaning the center position isn't really relevant in this discussion and meaning that the 6th man is all the "depth" we'll employ (outside of blowouts). That's why I think it's better for the more versatile player to come off the bench.

That said, it's also possible we'll play an 8-man rotation with Matt Jones as a 10 mpg perimeter player. I don't think that changes the equations we're discussing in a qualitative way, however.

Well, if Plumlee IS the 7th guy, then he and Okafor are going to have to play together some. You just can't/shouldn't have a 7-man rotation with two guys that can't play together. So I think we'll have a 7.5 man rotation, with Plumlee as the 0.5. But either way (7 man or 7.5 man roster), it doesn't matter whether the versatile guy starts or comes off the bench.


Not really. Justise isn't going to play 40 minutes.

Nobody is asking Winslow to play 40 minutes. There isn't a rule that limits us to just one substitution for the half. When Winslow gets tired, someone else will come in. I'm assuming the exact same minutes distribution. Just a slight difference in when those minutes are used.


I hear you but I don't necessarily agree. Perhaps my point is too subtle (or perhaps you're right and there's no difference, though I don't think so or I wouldn't still be typing), but as I see it, Coach K likes to force other teams to adjust to Duke, rather than the other way around. So if we start 3-guards, the opponent will have to take that into account, either by also going small or by trying to get the best of a "double mismatch" situation.

The only exceptions would be teams with big but also very quick and very skilled SGs/SFs, who would have a straight up mismatch against either Quinn or Rasheed. Those games, which I assume will be pretty rare, will probably necessitate Justise starting.

Coach K does like to force other teams to adjust to us. That doesn't inherently mean we start 3 guards. We start the group that he likes the most. Sometimes that has meant 3 guards, sometimes it has meant 1 (ish) like in 2001 before Boozer got hurt. If Coach K feels that Winslow as a starter is our best alignment, then that will be how we force the opposition to adjust to us (by going fairly big).


But in all other situations, the game would start on our terms. As the game moves along, however, certain matchups might not be working out how we wanted them to, in which case the versatility Justise provides, being able to come in and patch up a problem with any of size, quickness, or defensive shortcomings will be incredibly valuable.

But that's the thing: Winslow's versatility is still available even if he starts, as long as he's not the first guy subbed out. Coming off the bench is not necessary to have his versatility.


Conversely, if we start Justise and bring Quinn (or Tyus) off the bench, the other teams can gameplan for that, and if an unanticipated problem arises, we won't really have an answer off the bench, because our sub doesn't really bring anything different than the people he'd be replacing -- unless the problem is quickness/shooting, but that would necessitate going small and if we're able to go that small, and we need to to counteract an opponent's strength, then (just like the exception case I mentioned above in Justise's favor) we'd probably start the game like that (small), anyway.

That's my take on it. There is a difference in whether the versatile player starts or not, even though that difference primarily manifests itself in the pre-game, planning stage.

I think this is irrelevant. Teams aren't going to only plan for the starting lineup. They are going to plan for the team. More specifically, they are likely to plan for the guys that play the most minutes. So if Winslow is playing a lot, they'll gameplan for him, whether he starts or comes off the bench.

If all they plan for is the starting lineup, then all we have to do is make a quick substitution in the first few minutes and the gameplan goes out the window. So again, having Cook come off the bench (instead of Winslow) doesn't change the opponent's gameplan. The opponent is going to have to be ready for lineups with PG/PG/SG/PF, lineups with PG/PG/SG/SF, lineups with PG/PG/SF/PF, and more "traditional" PG/SG/SF/PF lineups. It doesn't matter which one we start; there is always the threat of any of those lineups.

I guess I'm just not seeing it. If we start with Winslow, we have any of 4 different looks that we can go to with Cook coming in. If we start with Cook, then we have 4 different looks we can go to with Winslow coming in. We can either sub in Winslow for any of 4 guys, or we can sub in Cook for any of 4 guys.

I'll leave it at that.

kAzE
07-29-2014, 08:29 PM
MKG was a first-team All American. How he's fared in the NBA isn't relevant to a discussion about how well Justise Winslow might perform in college. The possibility that Justise (especially as a freshman) will be better than a first-team All American is soooooo remote, it might as well be absolute.

I agree, it's very unlikely that Winslow will be first team AA. By the way, MKG never made 1st team (he was 2nd team): http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_NCAA_Men's_Basketball_All-Americans

But to count Winslow out completely is kind of a party pooper attitude to have. He might have an amazing year, who knows? We're gonna have an awesome team, but the chances that we win the championship next year is still pretty tiny. By your logic, maybe we should just cancel the season, we're probably not gonna win it all anyway. Have some faith, man! It's college basketball, ANYTHING can happen.

I believe in you, Justise!! :p

tommy
07-29-2014, 08:52 PM
But to count Winslow out completely is kind of a party pooper attitude to have. He might have an amazing year, who knows? We're gonna have an awesome team, but the chances that we win the championship next year is still pretty tiny. By your logic, maybe we should just cancel the season, we're probably not gonna win it all anyway.

Huh? That doesn't follow from what Kedsy was saying. At all.

kAzE
07-29-2014, 08:58 PM
Huh? That doesn't follow from what Kedsy was saying. At all.

Here's the exact quote:

"The possibility that Justise (especially as a freshman) will be better than a first-team All American is soooooo remote, it might as well be absolute."

Since MKG wasn't actually 1st team, (he was 2nd team), I'll just equate that to making All-America. OK . . . so he said since there's a very little chance Winslow makes AA, that basically equals absolutely no chance Winslow makes AA.

I took that that and applied it to winning a title. The chance of winning a title is pretty minuscule in today's world of college basketball, even with a great team. By his logic, we have no chance to win a title. Comprende?

I'm just saying, let's keep the glass half full.

tommy
07-29-2014, 09:04 PM
Here's the exact quote:

"The possibility that Justise (especially as a freshman) will be better than a first-team All American is soooooo remote, it might as well be absolute."

Since MKG wasn't actually 1st team, (he was 2nd team), I'll just equate that to making All-America. OK . . . so he said there's since almost no chance Winslow makes AA, that basically equals absolutely no chance Winslow makes AA.

I took that that and applied it to winning a title. The chance of winning a title is pretty minuscule in today's world of college basketball, even with a great team. By his logic, we have no chance to win a title. Comprende?

I'm just saying, let's keep the glass half full.

I "comprende" just fine. It just doesn't make sense. It doesn't follow internally, nor does it follow from Kedsy's post, that because Winslow has almost no chance to be an AA, that anyone is "giving up on" him, and it doesn't follow that because our (or anyone's) chances of winning the championship are small, that we should just cancel or forget about the season.

kAzE
07-29-2014, 09:05 PM
I "comprende" just fine. It just doesn't make sense. It doesn't follow internally, nor does it follow from Kedsy's post, that because Winslow has almost no chance to be an AA, that anyone is "giving up on" him, and it doesn't follow that because our (or anyone's) chances of winning the championship are small, that we should just cancel or forget about the season.

He basically was "giving up" on Winslow's chances to be an AA, for which I think any promising player deserves the benefit of the doubt. Good lord, it was a joke. Come on. You really thought I wanted to cancel the season? Stop taking everything so seriously.

SilkyJ
07-30-2014, 08:25 PM
I expect the rotation thread is coming soon.

Newsflash: this IS the rotation thread :cool:

NSDukeFan
07-30-2014, 09:02 PM
Newsflash: this IS the rotation thread :cool:

One of the rotation threads that could turn into one of the minutes threads

greybeard
07-30-2014, 10:17 PM
Couple of observations. Jabari encountered difficulty scoring the ball at start of ACC play and well into it. Most of difficulty was due to getting it to him low, with expectation that he'd get fouled or dunk. Didn't happen, until Jabari would start doing some incredible stuff, often well into half. Sometimes he would not become effective until K let him roam. Unlike Hood, whom I thought showed consistent discernment, Jabari, with the weight K put on him and extent to which opponents committed to taking him out of his game, was catching it all over the place, and, as consequence attack lost its shape and Jabari took more improvident shots.

You know where this goes with regard to Cooke'd efficiency

While I thought Duke did very nicely on offensive board, that did not seem to me to be the case on defensive board. Also, Duke not great at turning people over. As consequence, run outs, early offense not very available, a strength of Cooke's

Finally, platooning basically focused first team on getting ball to big two--other 2 guys did not shoot. Different game then when running with Rasheed and/or Dawkins

Second finally, when K would go away from platooning in second half, usually Tyler lead team. Cooke might well have come in with directions to open things up, get offense scoring and score the ball himself. Maybe not so easy, especially when told to look to score after playing passively and not having had chances to feel, test defense or get something easy.

As for starting/pt, K likes settling influence of experienced player(s) on court with freshman. Amile I think will be exceptional. My guess, unless he makes Bad plays, or somebody new (donn'y know names) completely wins K's trust, K wants Cooke on floor. Rasheed, whom I really, really have high hopes for, probably a year away and perhaps too good as all around maker of plays to serve as leader k would choose. There is Duke; Duke not easy to "get" on fly.

jv001
07-31-2014, 02:05 AM
Cooke? I thought his name was Quinn Cook. GoDuke!

lotusland
08-08-2014, 05:56 PM
Jones weighs in

http://news.yahoo.com/dukes-jones-never-rivalry-senior-cook-174331880--spt.html

CameronBornAndBred
08-09-2014, 11:06 AM
Article about Jones and Cook.

http://www.wralsportsfan.com/duke-s-jones-never-a-rivalry-with-senior-cook/13877538/

superdave
08-09-2014, 09:26 PM
Article about Jones and Cook.

http://www.wralsportsfan.com/duke-s-jones-never-a-rivalry-with-senior-cook/13877538/

Duhon and Williams and Dawkins and Amaker make me feel pretty good about this. Wojo and Avery make me a little unsettled. But I think Cook is more suited to play off-guard and let Jones be playmaker than Wojo was. I'll gladly accept the Duhon Williams season and let us move on to another topic.

Remember that Coach K said Cook's best contribution to the team last season was his shooting. I think that is telling regarding Cook's role and Jones' role next season.

Super "Next Season!!!!" Dave

Newton_14
08-09-2014, 10:24 PM
Duhon and Williams and Dawkins and Amaker make me feel pretty good about this. Wojo and Avery make me a little unsettled. But I think Cook is more suited to play off-guard and let Jones be playmaker than Wojo was. I'll gladly accept the Duhon Williams season and let us move on to another topic.

Remember that Coach K said Cook's best contribution to the team last season was his shooting. I think that is telling regarding Cook's role and Jones' role next season.

Super "Next Season!!!!" Dave

I don't worry about that tandem at all on offense. I think they will mesh just fine actually. How we pull it off on defense will be the key. One of them will have to be able to ball hawk the other PG for it to work. Or they can rotate that responsibility if it comes to it. There will be a ton of competition with the backcourt spots though. Matt Jones and Rasheed are talented dudes as well.

I think maybe this year we get the versatile team we thought we were getting last season. Defense and Leadership will be by far the biggest question marks for this group. I have no doubts at all they will collectively score a lot of points in a variety of ways. They will be hard to stop on offense and just like two seasons ago with Mason, if we badly need a bucket, we dump it down on the block to the big fella and let him go to work. So I have full confidence in offense, and the Jones/Cook tandem will generate points for this team.

Can they get a stop or multiple stops when they absolutely have to have them in the final 5 minutes of tight games unlike last season? TBD....