Predictions ... Louisville version

[Olympic Fan]

I was interested by the article linked on the front page, with a Louisville writer trying to predict the ACC next season (basketball, not football). Just in case you didn't look, here is how he ranked them:

1. Duke
2a. Louisville
2b. UNC
4. Syracuse
5. Pitt
6. Virginia
7. Notre Dame
8. NC State
9. Va Tech
10. Miami
11. FSU
12. Clemson
13. BC
14. Wake
15. Georgia Tech

Okay, I could quibble with a few of those -- I'd bet good money that FSU finishes ahead of Virginia Tech -- but that's the nature of preseason predictions.

But the list includes one absolutely absurd prediction.

Virginia is not going to finish as low as sixth.

In fact, I'd make the case that Virginia, not Duke, should be the ACC preseason favorite.

Yeah, Duke is going to be awfully talented, but the Devils are also awfully young. At least three of the top players in the rotation (whether they start or not, easily in the top 6) will be freshmen. There is one senior.

Virginia, on the other hand, returns seven of the nine players who actually won the ACC last year -- both regular season and tournament. They also went deeper into the NCAA than any other ACC team.

Granted, they lost an outstanding player in Joe Harris and a solid one in Akil Mitchell. But they return their best player (Malcolm Brogden) and have one of the ACC's best point guards in London Perrantes -- he should be better this year as second-year players in the program. They have a solid replacement for Harris is Justin Anderson, who was the ACC's sixth man of the year. They have an upgrade for Mitchell in Anthony Gill (a transfer who took a while to get started, but was better than Mitchell in postseason).

Tony Bennett has depth, experience and one of the best defensive teams in the league.

In a way, they are like Duke football this fall -- nobody gives them the respect they deserve going into the season. Syracuse -- which wasn't as good as Virginia last year -- lost its three best players. How you can you pick them ahead of Virginia?

I can understand a bit of skepticsm. I'm not saying you HAVE to pick Virginia preseason No. 1. But sixth place is ridiculous.

[Bob Green]

In fact, I'd make the case that Virginia, not Duke, should be the ACC preseason favorite.

Tony Bennett has a roster full of players who have bought it to his system. In addition to the players you listed, Evan Nolte seems to me to be a likely candidate to excel in the post Joe Harris era. Nolte needs to improve his all around game; however, he shot .389 on 3 PT FGs as a sophomore. That is certainly far from lights out, but it isn't shabby so he could be the guy used to stretch the defense and open up room for his teammates to drive to the rim.

Count me in the group of fans who believe Tony Bennett will be making a lot of noise in the ACC for years to come.

[Bluegrassdevil1]

You could have stopped with "Louisville writer", as the stronger sportswriters in the bluegrass left some time ago, and the current stream only wish to elicit an uproar with the faithful by putting the fighting Vincenzo's just a touch below the top. By stating that an evil program like Duke is above and its twin villain is equal to U of L, it will draw eyes and voices for daring to pick anyone other than Pitino, master of the five-minute suspension.

I suspect that the Virginia designation is purposeful as well, as the ACC has marked UVA as the Cards' rival. By placing them so low, the writer is able to tap into the Louisville inferiority complex (which is like nothing any ACC fan has ever witnessed), by insinuating that the school's new rival is inferior as well.

In reality, as you said, UVA will be quite strong, and though I subscribe to the 13-14 schedule as the reason for most of UVA's success last season, they will not go down without a fight. I have no faith Jamie Dixon, so there is no way I support the Panthers finishing top five in the conference. I do believe that fifth place is legitimate possibility for the Cavs though, but I would not view that as too much of a negative if they trail behind four highly ranked teams.

[sagegrouse]

I continue to question a high ranking for Duke. A good but not exceptional Duke team loses its two best players and 60 percent of its scoring and is ranked in the top five nationally and #1 in the ACC? Give me a break!

[Kedsy]

I continue to question a high ranking for Duke. A good but not exceptional Duke team loses its two best players and 60 percent of its scoring and is ranked in the top five nationally and #1 in the ACC? Give me a break!

To evaluate a basketball team, don't look at what it lost. Look at what it has.

[Duvall]

To evaluate a basketball team, don't look at what it lost. Look at what it has.

And when evaluating a team's ranking, also look at what everyone else has.

[burnspbesq]

the Louisville inferiority complex (which is like nothing any ACC fan has ever seen)

We've endured 61 years of Maryland and one year of Syracuse. We know what needy, whiny fan bases look like. Louisville is going to have to work hard to surpass those two.

[OldPhiKap]

I was interested by the article linked on the front page, with a Louisville writer trying to predict the ACC next season (basketball, not football). Just in case you didn't look, here is how he ranked them:

1. Duke
2a. Louisville
2b. UNC
4. Syracuse
5. Pitt
6. Virginia
7. Notre Dame
8. NC State
9. Va Tech
10. Miami
11. FSU
12. Clemson
13. BC
14. Wake
15. Georgia Tech

Okay, I could quibble with a few of those -- I'd bet good money that FSU finishes ahead of Virginia Tech -- but that's the nature of preseason predictions.

But the list includes one absolutely absurd prediction.

Virginia is not going to finish as low as sixth.

In fact, I'd make the case that Virginia, not Duke, should be the ACC preseason favorite.

Yeah, Duke is going to be awfully talented, but the Devils are also awfully young. At least three of the top players in the rotation (whether they start or not, easily in the top 6) will be freshmen. There is one senior.

Virginia, on the other hand, returns seven of the nine players who actually won the ACC last year -- both regular season and tournament. They also went deeper into the NCAA than any other ACC team.

Granted, they lost an outstanding player in Joe Harris and a solid one in Akil Mitchell. But they return their best player (Malcolm Brogden) and have one of the ACC's best point guards in London Perrantes -- he should be better this year as second-year players in the program. They have a solid replacement for Harris is Justin Anderson, who was the ACC's sixth man of the year. They have an upgrade for Mitchell in Anthony Gill (a transfer who took a while to get started, but was better than Mitchell in postseason).

Tony Bennett has depth, experience and one of the best defensive teams in the league.

In a way, they are like Duke football this fall -- nobody gives them the respect they deserve going into the season. Syracuse -- which wasn't as good as Virginia last year -- lost its three best players. How you can you pick them ahead of Virginia?

I can understand a bit of skepticsm. I'm not saying you HAVE to pick Virginia preseason No. 1. But sixth place is ridiculous.


Tony Bennett has a roster full of players who have bought it to his system. In addition to the players you listed, Evan Nolte seems to me to be a likely candidate to excel in the post Joe Harris era. Nolte needs to improve his all around game; however, he shot .389 on 3 PT FGs as a sophomore. That is certainly far from lights out, but it isn't shabby so he could be the guy used to stretch the defense and open up room for his teammates to drive to the rim.

Count me in the group of fans who believe Tony Bennett will be making a lot of noise in the ACC for years to come.

I agree with all of this. It's like the folks who still pick Duke football to flounder in the division because it has been the default for years.

Virginia has it going on. Not sure they are favored to repeat the regular season race (not championship), but I am a believer until someone proves me wrong on the court.

If you figure that three losses puts you in the race for winning the regular season -- Duke, UNC, UVA are all three certainly in the mix. Without looking at the unequal schedule of course given expansion. Do not know enough about L'ville's returning team to see where they fall in.

And agree with Julio – Clemson and FSU are ranked too low. And I like the coaching going onin Miami too but not sure what they bring back.

Having said that, Louisville's writers are on a steep learning curve. I am willing to cut them some slack. Except for that. #^*%#{% game in '86 which I am still not over.

[JNort]

I still think Duke is number one by a decent amount over Ville and Unc. Virginia is def underrated though, by this writer anyway

[Wander]

As always, one needs to remember the unbalanced schedule, and UVA's repeat opponents (Wake, VT, NC State, Louisville) are probably easier than Duke's repeat opponents (Wake, UNC, Syracuse, Notre Dame), and Louisville's repeat opponents (UNC, UVA, Miami, Pitt) so yeah, I'd put UVA at #1 as well.

[OldPhiKap]

As always, one needs to remember the unbalanced schedule, and UVA's repeat opponents (Wake, VT, NC State, Louisville) are probably easier than Duke's repeat opponents (Wake, UNC, Syracuse, Notre Dame), and Louisville's repeat opponents (UNC, UVA, Miami, Pitt) so yeah, I'd put UVA at #1 as well.

Agreed, although Louisville may have the hardest of the three. UVA seems to have he easiest.

Of course, one has to factoring home/away of single games too. Which, to me, makes. The whole argument of "who finishes the conference with the best record" race somewhat bogus.

[CDu]

I'm not sure why Louisville is so widely considered a top-3 team. They lose a lot from this year's team, and it is debatable how good they actually were last year (playing in a MUCH weaker conference). I'd be inclined to put both UVa and UNC above Louisville right now.

[-bdbd]

No surprise, but this is a very old-Big East-centric biased view of the ACC going into next season. One could easily argue that almost all of the former BE teams in this project are overrated by the writer. So, from that biased perspective, it is going to be natural to under-value many key, traditional ACC teams, like UVA, and over-value the former BE ones, like L'ville, Syracuse, Pitt, and maybe even then VPI, Miami. Give those Louisville fans and writers, like with 'cuse and Pitt, a couple of years, and they'll have a more realistic sense of perspective...

[Here is a Turtle]

I'm not sure Louisville finishes in the top 4, let alone number 1.

[Papa John]

No surprise, but this is a very old-Big East-centric biased view of the ACC going into next season. One could easily argue that almost all of the former BE teams in this project are overrated by the writer. So, from that biased perspective, it is going to be natural to under-value many key, traditional ACC teams, like UVA, and over-value the former BE ones, like L'ville, Syracuse, Pitt, and maybe even then VPI, Miami. Give those Louisville fans and writers, like with 'cuse and Pitt, a couple of years, and they'll have a more realistic sense of perspective...

Or ours could be a very old-ACC-centric biased view... We'll all know soon enough, I suppose...

Until the season approaches [given ongoing off-season transfer announcements, potential injuries, etc.], my personal quick take would be to group the teams in three tiers (given we now have 15 teams) as so:

Top tier:
UVa, Duke, UNC, Louisville, Syracuse

Middle tier:
Notre Dame, Pitt, Wake, FSU, NCState

Bottom tier:
Miami, Clemson, GaTech, BC, VPI

[Bob Green]

Middle tier:
Notre Dame, Pitt, Wake, FSU, NCState



Wake in the Middle tier seems to be a huge stretch to me.

[Duvall]

Wake in the Middle tier seems to be a huge stretch to me.

Wouldn't surprise me to see the de-Bzdeliked Deacons take a step forward this season.

[Bob Green]

Wouldn't surprise me to see the de-Bzdeliked Deacons take a step forward this season.

I hope you are right! A competitive Wake Forest team makes for good games to watch, good old fashion Big Four Basketball.

[OldPhiKap]

Wake will improve over time. I think some in W-S will find out though that Bz is not the only problem there.

Still waiting for the resurrection of GT -- Gregory is a good coach, ATL is an easy sell to recruits.