MLax: 2015 Preview

[DST Fan]

Here is a short preview of the 2015 team by Laura Keeley.


http://www.newsobserver.com/2014/06/03/3908186/early-look-2015-duke-lacrosse.html?sp=/99/103/

[MCFinARL]

Interestingly, Christian Swezey's way-ahead 2015 top 20 (http://www.insidelacrosse.com/article/swezey-way-ahead-2015-top-20/28888)on Inside Lacrosse picks Duke #2 (Maryland is #1), despite the loss of the entire starting close defense, the Tewaaraton finalist attackman, the face-off specialist (a key part of Duke's offense), starting midfielder Christian Walsh, and LSM Luke Duprey. The write-up is a bit starstruck; the rationale is, essentially, well, it's Duke.

Pretty cool to be getting that kind of respect for the program. But I think it's safe to assume that next season may be one with a few bumps along the way as new personnel figure out how to play together.

[burnspbesq]

After back-to-back national championships (and three in five seasons), friends of Duke lacrosse can be excused if the Annual Worrying About Next Year seems to have become a familiar ritual. Every year, it seems, we say thanks and farewell to a group of senior contributors who played big roles in the team’s success, and wonder who among the returnees and the incoming freshman will step up and step into the vacated positions.

Last year at this time, the big worry was about the midfield position; we felt pretty good about the attack and the defense. This year, it’s the reverse: the midfield looks like Duke’s strength going into 2015, while both ends of the field raise large questions.

Who’s Leaving. Duke was essentially a 24-man team in 2014, with a regular rotation of 21 and three others who got meaningful minutes. Of that group, nine are lost to graduation: Jordan Wolf and Josh Dionne on attack, Christian Walsh from the offensive midfield, LSM Luke Duprey, SSDM Charlie Payton, face-off artist Brendan Fowler, and the entire starting close D of Henry Lobb, Chris Hipps, and Casey Carroll. Wolf’s 103-point output and Fowler’s dominance at the dot will be hardest to replace, but Lobb was among the nation’s elite shut-down cover guys, Dionne was a lethal inside finisher, Duprey was a force on defense and as a wing on faceoffs, and Payton and Carroll were invaluable glue guys. Walsh may have been the unsung hero of the senior group: he facilitated the emergence of Myles Jones and Deemer Class (both of who broke Dave Lawson’s single-season midfield scoring record) in a host of ways both obvious and subtle.

Duke loses 46.8 percent of its goals scored, 60.6 percent of its caused turnovers, and 94.7 percent of its faceoff wins. That, ladies and gents, is a lot of production heading out the door.

Who’s Back. Fifteen players who played regular or semi-regular minutes return. On attack, Case Matheis will have his turn in the spotlight; he was Inside Lacrosse’s top-rated recruit in 2012, and he has shown signs of being able to step up to elite status. Five of the six offensive midfielders return, led by Jones and Class, who combined for 128 goals. The entire second midfield of Kyle Keenan, Jack Bruckner, and Chad Cohan, who collectively chipped in 39 goals (including Keenan’s six at attack on Championship Weekend) returns. Brian Dailey, who stepped in beautifully after Duprey went down for the season in the Virginia game, returns at LSM, along with Jamie Ikeda who split time between LSM and close D (Ikeda stepped in early in the year when Lobb missed time due to injury), and Ethan Powley who looked good in limited minutes. At SSDM, Will Haus, who for my money was the best player in all of college lacrosse in May (don’t believe me? Ask Quint), and Thomas Zenker return, along with Greg Rhodes, who impressed in spot duty. Jack Rowe went 11-25 at the dot in limited mop-up duty. Chris Coady and Brian Dunne looked good in limited minutes on D, and Ian Yanulis was a fixture on the man-down unit. Both keepers who saw time will be back, as will Danny Fowler, who redshirted and who Coach Danowski said might have been our best in net.

Who’s Arriving. A large and massively talented group of recruits will be joining the program in the fall. Justin Guterding (Garden City, NY/Garden City), a 2013 Under Armour All-American, arrives after a post-graduate year; he’s a deadly off-ball finisher in the Quinzani/Dionne tradition. Attackman Mitch Russell put up big numbers in high school, including a six-goal outburst in his state championship game, but he did it in the renowned lacrosse hotbed of Fort Mill, South Carolina; we’ll have to see whether he can contribute at the ACC level in the short term.

The incoming group features three outstanding midfielders: Matthew Giampetroni from Michigan, David Gill from New Jersey, and Jake Seau from San Diego. All of these young men appear fully capable of playing (as the ACC cliché goes) “big-boy lacrosse.” The incoming poles are led by defenseman Greg Pelton from the Philadelphia area, the consensus best pole in the Class of 2018, elite LSM Peter Welch from the Delbarton School in New Jersey, and James Riley, a highly regarded cover guy from Minnesota.

What to Look For in 2015. In the various way-too-early top 10/20/25s, Duke has been slotted anywhere from two to seven (FWIW, I have them at five). There is enormous talent, but much of it is untested, and guys are going to have to find their roles and grow into them quickly. Here’s what I think the rotation will look like in 2015.

Attack: Matheis, Guterding, and Cohan will start. Russell and Connelly will provide depth. In case of injury, Keenan will move up from midfield.

Offensive midfield: Jones, Class, and Bruckner will comprise the first unit. Keenan, Zenker, and Giampetroni will comprise the second unit. This year’s third unit of Scott, Shaffer, and Transou will remain intact, but will again be used sparingly.

D-mids: Dailey will be the primary LSM. Welch and Powley will both play meaningful minutes. Haus, Seau, Gill, and Rhodes will be the SSDM rotation, and with that much elite athleticism we will run in transition like you haven’t seen in a long time.

Face-off: Your guess is as good as mine. As the sole returnee, Rowe has the inside track, but I expect there will be a lot of experimenting in the fall, and the position may not be solidified until well into the season.

Defense: Ikeda and Pelton are probably locks to start. I’d say Dunne has the inside track for the third spot, but it could turn out to be Riley, Yanulis, or freshman Jack Harrington from Connecticut. If he doesn’t start, Riley may take Yanulis’ spot as the man-down specialist.

Goal: Wide open among Fowler, Aaron, and Turri. Given his athleticism and stick skills, Turri might end up at midfield rather than as a third-string keeper.

Is it February yet?

[Bob Green]

Thanks for an excellent post! Lacrosse is a very exciting sport to watch and I am slowly learning more about the game by watching and reading informative posts on DBR.

[Faison1]

The loss of Fowler is going to be more than huge. For years now, Duke has assumed it was going to win the face off. There were games where the other team simply couldn't get the ball because Brendan was so dominant. He may have gone cold a bit towards the end, but when Duke needed to stop the bleeding and get the ball back, Fowler usually came up with a big face off. He was as close to automatic as it comes. Correct me if I'm wrong, but hasn't he been doing the face offs for 3 years now?

Also, I thought coming into this past year, our defense was a question mark, not just the midfield.

It ought to be an interesting year. I would guess we'll be granted a reprieve after having won the last 2 natty's.

[burnspbesq]

The loss of Fowler is going to be more than huge. For years now, Duke has assumed it was going to win the face off. There were games where the other team simply couldn't get the ball because Brendan was so dominant. He may have gone cold a bit towards the end, but when Duke needed to stop the bleeding and get the ball back, Fowler usually came up with a big face off. He was as close to automatic as it comes. Correct me if I'm wrong, but hasn't he been doing the face offs for 3 years now?

Also, I thought coming into this past year, our defense was a question mark, not just the midfield.

It ought to be an interesting year. I would guess we'll be granted a reprieve after having won the last 2 natty's.

Fowler didn't really emerge as the baddest guy in town until his junior season; although he went over 60 percent as a soph, C.J. Costabile was the primary guy in 2012 (C.J. took 272 draws to Brendan's 149).

Duke's team faceoff percentages during Fowler's four years in Durham: 51.3 in 2011, 55.7 in 2012, 62.5 in 2013, and 57.7 in 2014.

Duke has done faceoff-by-committee with some success in the past. In the 2010 championship season, Costabile, Terence Molinari, and Sam Payton combined to win 54.5 percent. And Duke has had success in years when it hasn't been very good at the dot: the 2007 team made it to Memorial Day despite winning only 48.5 percent.

Coming into 2014, we knew that two of the three starting defensive spots were in good hands with Lobb and Hipps. The question mark was whether Casey's knee would allow him to go and whether his skills were undiminished by time, or whether someone untested would have to step in.

[MCFinARL]

After back-to-back national championships (and three in five seasons), friends of Duke lacrosse can be excused if the Annual Worrying About Next Year seems to have become a familiar ritual. Every year, it seems, we say thanks and farewell to a group of senior contributors who played big roles in the team’s success, and wonder who among the returnees and the incoming freshman will step up and step into the vacated positions.

Last year at this time, the big worry was about the midfield position; we felt pretty good about the attack and the defense. This year, it’s the reverse: the midfield looks like Duke’s strength going into 2015, while both ends of the field raise large questions.

Who’s Leaving. Duke was essentially a 24-man team in 2014, with a regular rotation of 21 and three others who got meaningful minutes. Of that group, nine are lost to graduation: Jordan Wolf and Josh Dionne on attack, Christian Walsh from the offensive midfield, LSM Luke Duprey, SSDM Charlie Payton, face-off artist Brendan Fowler, and the entire starting close D of Henry Lobb, Chris Hipps, and Casey Carroll. Wolf’s 103-point output and Fowler’s dominance at the dot will be hardest to replace, but Lobb was among the nation’s elite shut-down cover guys, Dionne was a lethal inside finisher, Duprey was a force on defense and as a wing on faceoffs, and Payton and Carroll were invaluable glue guys. Walsh may have been the unsung hero of the senior group: he facilitated the emergence of Myles Jones and Deemer Class (both of who broke Dave Lawson’s single-season midfield scoring record) in a host of ways both obvious and subtle.

Duke loses 46.8 percent of its goals scored, 60.6 percent of its caused turnovers, and 94.7 percent of its faceoff wins. That, ladies and gents, is a lot of production heading out the door.

Who’s Back. Fifteen players who played regular or semi-regular minutes return. On attack, Case Matheis will have his turn in the spotlight; he was Inside Lacrosse’s top-rated recruit in 2012, and he has shown signs of being able to step up to elite status. Five of the six offensive midfielders return, led by Jones and Class, who combined for 128 goals. The entire second midfield of Kyle Keenan, Jack Bruckner, and Chad Cohan, who collectively chipped in 39 goals (including Keenan’s six at attack on Championship Weekend) returns. Brian Dailey, who stepped in beautifully after Duprey went down for the season in the Virginia game, returns at LSM, along with Jamie Ikeda who split time between LSM and close D (Ikeda stepped in early in the year when Lobb missed time due to injury), and Ethan Powley who looked good in limited minutes. At SSDM, Will Haus, who for my money was the best player in all of college lacrosse in May (don’t believe me? Ask Quint), and Thomas Zenker return, along with Greg Rhodes, who impressed in spot duty. Jack Rowe went 11-25 at the dot in limited mop-up duty. Chris Coady and Brian Dunne looked good in limited minutes on D, and Ian Yanulis was a fixture on the man-down unit. Both keepers who saw time will be back, as will Danny Fowler, who redshirted and who Coach Danowski said might have been our best in net.

Who’s Arriving. A large and massively talented group of recruits will be joining the program in the fall. Justin Guterding (Garden City, NY/Garden City), a 2013 Under Armour All-American, arrives after a post-graduate year; he’s a deadly off-ball finisher in the Quinzani/Dionne tradition. Attackman Mitch Russell put up big numbers in high school, including a six-goal outburst in his state championship game, but he did it in the renowned lacrosse hotbed of Fort Mill, South Carolina; we’ll have to see whether he can contribute at the ACC level in the short term.

The incoming group features three outstanding midfielders: Matthew Giampetroni from Michigan, David Gill from New Jersey, and Jake Seau from San Diego. All of these young men appear fully capable of playing (as the ACC cliché goes) “big-boy lacrosse.” The incoming poles are led by defenseman Greg Pelton from the Philadelphia area, the consensus best pole in the Class of 2018, elite LSM Peter Welch from the Delbarton School in New Jersey, and James Riley, a highly regarded cover guy from Minnesota.

What to Look For in 2015. In the various way-too-early top 10/20/25s, Duke has been slotted anywhere from two to seven (FWIW, I have them at five). There is enormous talent, but much of it is untested, and guys are going to have to find their roles and grow into them quickly. Here’s what I think the rotation will look like in 2015.

Attack: Matheis, Guterding, and Cohan will start. Russell and Connelly will provide depth. In case of injury, Keenan will move up from midfield.

Offensive midfield: Jones, Class, and Bruckner will comprise the first unit. Keenan, Zenker, and Giampetroni will comprise the second unit. This year’s third unit of Scott, Shaffer, and Transou will remain intact, but will again be used sparingly.

D-mids: Dailey will be the primary LSM. Welch and Powley will both play meaningful minutes. Haus, Seau, Gill, and Rhodes will be the SSDM rotation, and with that much elite athleticism we will run in transition like you haven’t seen in a long time.

Face-off: Your guess is as good as mine. As the sole returnee, Rowe has the inside track, but I expect there will be a lot of experimenting in the fall, and the position may not be solidified until well into the season.

Defense: Ikeda and Pelton are probably locks to start. I’d say Dunne has the inside track for the third spot, but it could turn out to be Riley, Yanulis, or freshman Jack Harrington from Connecticut. If he doesn’t start, Riley may take Yanulis’ spot as the man-down specialist.

Goal: Wide open among Fowler, Aaron, and Turri. Given his athleticism and stick skills, Turri might end up at midfield rather than as a third-string keeper.

Is it February yet?

This is a solid and thoughtful analysis. One thing that stuck out--your moving Bruckner to the first midfield and leaving Keenan on the second. Is the idea there to maintain balance in scoring potential over both midfields? Bruckner, IIRC, took a fair number of not-so-great shots (his final shooting percentage was only 0.189 according to the team stats) but could presumably be expected to defer to more reliable shooters Jones and Class on the first line (and, of course, he could get better as the college-level game slows down for him a bit). Keenan has been an effective shooter and so has Zenker, although since he played primarily defense and only took 7 shots (made 3), it's hard to draw a firm conclusion.

Would also like to hear more about moving Cohan, rather than Keenan, to first attack, given Keenan's effective tournament minutes there. I'm not questioning your judgment--I don't know enough about the relative merits of Keenan and Cohan's games--just wanting more info.

Do you think we may see Guterding getting minutes on the man-up unit, the way Dionne did his freshman year?

[burnspbesq]

This is a solid and thoughtful analysis. One thing that stuck out--your moving Bruckner to the first midfield and leaving Keenan on the second. Is the idea there to maintain balance in scoring potential over both midfields? Bruckner, IIRC, took a fair number of not-so-great shots (his final shooting percentage was only 0.189 according to the team stats) but could presumably be expected to defer to more reliable shooters Jones and Class on the first line (and, of course, he could get better as the college-level game slows down for him a bit). Keenan has been an effective shooter and so has Zenker, although since he played primarily defense and only took 7 shots (made 3), it's hard to draw a firm conclusion.

Would also like to hear more about moving Cohan, rather than Keenan, to first attack, given Keenan's effective tournament minutes there. I'm not questioning your judgment--I don't know enough about the relative merits of Keenan and Cohan's games--just wanting more info.

Do you think we may see Guterding getting minutes on the man-up unit, the way Dionne did his freshman year?

Ideally, you would like to have some balance between the two offensive midfield units. If you run Keenan with Jones and Class, while running Bruckner and Zenker with a freshman on the second unit, you've got almost 100 goals scored in 2014 on one unit vs. less than 10. I also think that having one of the senior leaders running with a sophomore and a freshman can provide a steadying influence that I don't think Myles or Deemer need any longer.

Moving Cohan to the starting attack instead of Keenan is a simple righty-lefty thing. Guterding is a lefty, and if you run him and Keenan together there's a risk that they will be in each other's way.

I hadn't thought all that much about the composition of the EMO, but Matheis/Guterding/Cohan/Jones/Class/Keenan in a 1-3-2 seems like the default option. That gives you four snipers, a crease guy, and a facilitator behind. I never fully understood what Bruckner's role on the EMO was supposed to be this year.

[buddy]

Burnspbesq,

Thank you for the insightful analyses. Is there any chance Jones could go to attack? I don't understand all the fine points, but with his big shot and much improved passing abilities, I would love to see him on the field every time Duke has the ball. He is a load for any defender. Hard to expect his game to jump as much next year as it did this, but he is a unique athlete. Although he still tries to run over people (because he can) his passing skills made him a much more dangerous player. The fact that he was passing to Dionne might have helped.

Can't wait for February!