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Billy Dat
05-28-2014, 01:16 PM
Jeff Capel finds his place at Duke (free)
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/10991394/duke-jeff-capel-finds-niche-blue-devils

Favorites to succeed Coach K at Duke ($ - but you can read a little)
http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/jeff-goodman/post?id=3658
They give Amaker the current best odds based on his recent run at Harvard.

gurufrisbee
05-28-2014, 04:33 PM
Is there a thread already going about the potential replacement for Coach K like the article talked about?

Billy Dat
05-28-2014, 04:39 PM
Is there a thread already going about the potential replacement for Coach K like the article talked about?

If we searched the archives, there are dozens, and in every one there are shouts to stop the conjecture and just enjoy the man while he is on the job.

flyingdutchdevil
05-28-2014, 05:02 PM
If we searched the archives, there are dozens, and in every one there are shouts to stop the conjecture and just enjoy the man while he is on the job.

Which, IMO, I do not agree with at all. Fans are fans, and this forum was created to talk about all topics related to Duke basketball, and coaching succession is an important and interesting topic to discuss. I am enjoying Coach K right now, but I am also curious as to what the future holds for Duke basketball coaches.

IMO, I don't think there is a suitable replacement coach out there right now, and I believe that is one reason Coach K has committed to Duke for at least the next 5 years. It's undeniable that Coach K thinks like a businessman, and CEOs do not leave a company without a good candidate to readily replace them. Worst case scenario is that you put the institution that you gave your sweat, blood, and tears to to someone who isn't ready or qualified (Alex Ferguson giving ManU to David Moyes. SMH...). I don't think any former Duke assistant coach or coach with Duke connections is ready or qualified. They are either a) too young, b) too inexperienced, or c) couldn't successfully manage a BCS school.

Duke can obviously look to non-Duke coaches, and I would absolutely be all for that, but many suspect that Coach K wants to keep it "in the family" (he did say this a while ago. And we know Coach K changes his mind).

Just from what I know and like, I see Jeff Capel and Chris Collins as the best candidates yet, but one had moderate success at a BCS school and the other is too inexperienced to judge.

Again, I do not believe Coach K will leave Duke without a fantastic, committed, and eager candidate in mind.

gurufrisbee
05-28-2014, 05:31 PM
If we searched the archives, there are dozens, and in every one there are shouts to stop the conjecture and just enjoy the man while he is on the job.

That's unfortunate, but not totally shocking. This place has some weird unwritten rules about things that are okay to talk about or not. Apparently that is one.

I think it's an interesting topic. And I think it is because there are several good candidates and not one clear one. Personally I don't see Amaker being nearly the front runner the article makes him out as. I think it's more likely to play out like this:

A) If Wojo or Collins has really good success over the next few years before Coach K retires (and we're talking conference titles, sweet sixteens, etc.) and is willing to come back, then they get the spot.

B) If neither of them has really good success but Dawkins has a few more years at Stanford like this last one, then he comes back (he's older and maybe he can do it for a decade and let Collins or Wojo build up that success).

C) If neither A or B happens, then Capel takes over.

bob blue devil
05-28-2014, 05:37 PM
Favorites to succeed Coach K at Duke ($ - but you can read a little)
http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/jeff-goodman/post?id=3658
They give Amaker the current best odds based on his recent run at Harvard.

As much as i like amaker, if he wasn't an alum, we'd scoff at the suggestion. his track record leaves a lot to be desired. E.g. while at seton hall and Michigan (yes, not ideal situations) he finished with a winning conference record twice in ten years. His success at Harvard is great, but not exactly a platform that translates to a job like head coach at duke. Go prove it in a major conference.

Duke would be doing itself a disservice not looking outside the family.

roywhite
05-28-2014, 06:15 PM
As much as i like amaker, if he wasn't an alum, we'd scoff at the suggestion. his track record leaves a lot to be desired. E.g. while at seton hall and Michigan (yes, not ideal situations) he finished with a winning conference record twice in ten years. His success at Harvard is great, but not exactly a platform that translates to a job like head coach at duke. Go prove it in a major conference.

Duke would be doing itself a disservice not looking outside the family.

I like the idea of looking for the best candidate, prior Duke connection or not.

But, really, I'd be surprised if the next coach is NOT a product of Coach K's coaching tree (the great majority of whom are Duke grads).

Wojo and Chris Collins are currently well positioned, and auditioning for the job, I think.

cspan37421
05-28-2014, 07:05 PM
As much as i like amaker, if he wasn't an alum, we'd scoff at the suggestion. his track record leaves a lot to be desired. E.g. while at seton hall and Michigan (yes, not ideal situations) he finished with a winning conference record twice in ten years. His success at Harvard is great, but not exactly a platform that translates to a job like head coach at duke. Go prove it in a major conference.

If we'd scoff, then that's our own stupidity.

Based no your reasoning, I think if it's 1980 you likely turn down Mike Krzyzewski. And if you even had the foresight to hire him, you're surely not renewing him a few years later.

Oh, but Coach K is a special case. Well of course, in hindsight.

What appealed about Coach K in 1980, coming off a 9-17 season? Pedigree, probably. From the coaching tree of an all-time great - and his endorsement.

What appealed about Coach K in 1983, coming off two consecutive losing seasons (not just conference losing, but overall losing)? Recruiting class.

What does Tommy Amaker have going for him? Both of the above.

To say Michigan wasn't an ideal situation is a bit like saying that UNC's integrity isn't quite spotless. As for Seton Hall, no one has been better since, overall. In the last 30+ years of Seton Hall basketball, the worst you can say about Tommy Amaker is that he wasn't PJ Carlesimo. OK, fine. But how great (in terms of W/L) was Coach K at Army?


Duke would be doing itself a disservice not looking outside the family.

I agree with you here wholeheartedly. Not that I want someone outside Coach K's tree - I want the best coach for Duke regardless of where he comes from. We'd never have gotten Coach K if we restricted our qualified candidates that way back in 1980.

I'm not saying I think Tommy Amaker is the best choice if it had to be made soon. But I am saying he should not be dismissed. He's held his own in a terrible situation, and he has recruited well. In fact, it's probably good that he's at Harvard, for that implies that he's experienced at selling kids on the brand value of the Harvard education as well as his basketball program. And at Duke, he has all those advantages plus far greater exposure.

But I wouldn't complain about Brad Stevens, Shaka Smart, or several of others, either.

brevity
05-28-2014, 07:33 PM
Is there a thread already going about the potential replacement for Coach K like the article talked about?


If we searched the archives, there are dozens, and in every one there are shouts to stop the conjecture and just enjoy the man while he is on the job.


That's unfortunate, but not totally shocking. This place has some weird unwritten rules about things that are okay to talk about or not. Apparently that is one.

It is entirely okay to discuss the issue of coaching succession here. The problem is that we HAVE discussed it, many times over. And while enough has happened to merit a return to the issue -- Collins at Northwestern, Wojo at Marquette, Capel on the Duke sidelines, Amaker winning NCAA games, Dawkins in the Sweet 16 -- there still isn't much more to actually say.

So then, if you still want to discuss the issue, you're left with two options: re-introduce old sentiments because you weren't around to talk about it in the past, or recycle them because you were.

Whatever; it's the offseason. Any visit to the Who's Online page (http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/online.php) these days will tell you that there are a lot of hovering members who are still going through withdrawal and want something to talk about.

roywhite
05-28-2014, 07:35 PM
If we searched the archives, there are dozens, and in every one there are shouts to stop the conjecture and just enjoy the man while he is on the job.

From one who did some of the shouting to stop such conjecture on a thread or two, it now seems appropriate to have more discussion of the transition and Duke basketball after K. Maybe it's that he's reached Social Security retirement age?....I dunno.

And, of course, it's the off-season, as brevity says above.

gep
05-29-2014, 01:30 AM
That's unfortunate, but not totally shocking. This place has some weird unwritten rules about things that are okay to talk about or not. Apparently that is one.

I think it's an interesting topic. And I think it is because there are several good candidates and not one clear one. Personally I don't see Amaker being nearly the front runner the article makes him out as. I think it's more likely to play out like this:

A) If Wojo or Collins has really good success over the next few years before Coach K retires (and we're talking conference titles, sweet sixteens, etc.) and is willing to come back, then they get the spot.

B) If neither of them has really good success but Dawkins has a few more years at Stanford like this last one, then he comes back (he's older and maybe he can do it for a decade and let Collins or Wojo build up that success).

C) If neither A or B happens, then Capel takes over.

My thoughts... If Wojo or Collins have really good success and "starts to build programs"... they may actually stay where they are to continue to build their programs... so not really wanting to come back to Duke. If Dawkins has similar success and starts to build his program, I'm not sure he would be willing to come back to Duke either. As much as Duke meant to these guys, I would think that their "stamp" on building a program will have mean more to them. :cool:

And if Wojo, Collins, or Dawkins are not "attractive" at the time that Coach K hangs it up, will Duke take amy of them anyway?

bob blue devil
05-29-2014, 07:08 AM
If we'd scoff, then that's our own stupidity.

Based no your reasoning, I think if it's 1980 you likely turn down Mike Krzyzewski. And if you even had the foresight to hire him, you're surely not renewing him a few years later.

Oh, but Coach K is a special case. Well of course, in hindsight.

What appealed about Coach K in 1980, coming off a 9-17 season? Pedigree, probably. From the coaching tree of an all-time great - and his endorsement.

What appealed about Coach K in 1983, coming off two consecutive losing seasons (not just conference losing, but overall losing)? Recruiting class.

What does Tommy Amaker have going for him? Both of the above.

To say Michigan wasn't an ideal situation is a bit like saying that UNC's integrity isn't quite spotless. As for Seton Hall, no one has been better since, overall. In the last 30+ years of Seton Hall basketball, the worst you can say about Tommy Amaker is that he wasn't PJ Carlesimo. OK, fine. But how great (in terms of W/L) was Coach K at Army?


let me rephrase - i scoff at the idea that, as of today, amaker is a worthy candidate. this is not an insult to Tommy; i don't know the man, and I'm a fan of him and his work; he's done a great job at harvard and seems to be a good coach. maybe things change, he achieves even greater success and the idea isn't scoff worthy at some point, but, as of now, he has been a head coach for 17 years and has made it out of the first weekend of the ncaa tournament once. 17 years with one sweet 16 - what more do you need to know? that's half of his projected head coaching career. duke is in the enviable position of being able to cherry pick a top candidate - someone who is clearly one of the top coaches in the country.

you rightly point out that coach k's hire challenges the importance of track record in hiring a coach. it's a tough criticism to respond to, but here are my thoughts - 1) coach k is a single case and, in addition to the foresight of mr. butters, some good luck was probably involved, 2) that was 35 years ago and times have changed, 3) coach k was 33 with a grand total of 6 years of head and assistant coaching experience - more professional growth could be envisioned than for a 48 year old with 26 years of head and assistant coaching experience (sorry to be a bit ageist), and 4) with fewer years as a head coach, coach k's decent run at army contained less information than amaker's much longer run (so one should weight their a priori view more heavily in coach k's case vs. the greater amount of tangible evidence available in tommy's case).

in terms of your analogy - did you really just compare tommy amaker's current recruiting class to one that included johnny dawkins, mark alarie, david henderson and jay bilas? fascinating.

revmel53
05-29-2014, 07:17 AM
I have a strong feeling for all of our graduates, but to not make a strong play for Brad Stevens when K retires would be the mistake of the century. When he was at Butler, I told Stevens that when K retired we would be coming after him, to which he responded with a chuckle "K's job is safe." Stevens is the best coach out there, and is not fit for the NBA imo. He will be ready to spring for a plum college job. And ours of course is the biggest plum. I just hope some lesser school (ie NC) doesn't make a huge play for him sooner.

Ichabod Drain
05-29-2014, 08:56 AM
I have a strong feeling for all of our graduates, but to not make a strong play for Brad Stevens when K retires would be the mistake of the century. When he was at Butler, I told Stevens that when K retired we would be coming after him, to which he responded with a chuckle "K's job is safe." Stevens is the best coach out there, and is not fit for the NBA imo. He will be ready to spring for a plum college job. And ours of course is the biggest plum. I just hope some lesser school (ie NC) doesn't make a huge play for him sooner.

Why do you say he is not fit for the NBA?

NovaScotian
05-29-2014, 09:29 AM
I have a strong feeling for all of our graduates, but to not make a strong play for Brad Stevens when K retires would be the mistake of the century. When he was at Butler, I told Stevens that when K retired we would be coming after him, to which he responded with a chuckle "K's job is safe." Stevens is the best coach out there, and is not fit for the NBA imo. He will be ready to spring for a plum college job. And ours of course is the biggest plum. I just hope some lesser school (ie NC) doesn't make a huge play for him sooner.


Why do you say he is not fit for the NBA?

i second ichabod's question - i'm not sure why anyone would think he's unfit for the league - he's a forward thinking (stats minded) guy, he has respect from his players, and has the respect of his management, which is clearly going to let him mold his young team going forward. though it's not out of the realm of possibility that he'll return to college, it would have to be a pretty good situation to draw him away from the money ( and luxury of not recruiting) that the nba offers.

also, there's no way williams will retire before coach mike does. and they're just as likely to try and stay "in the family" as duke is.


my only fear is that whoever takes over this job at first is going to stumble. i guess this is the good thing about having so many options that the coaching tree will branch back many times.

Turk
05-29-2014, 11:03 AM
Brad Stevens was the surprising name in the ESPN blog. The rest were all our guys.

My take on Stevens is that he did well keeping the Celtics playing hard in a tank / rebuilding season. I read a piece or two on Stevens during the course of the season, and I think he'll do well in the NBA (given whatever talent he has to work with) as long as he wants to stay there. He would be my personal favorite at this point in time. I've always liked Tommy but the Ivy League and the ACC have very little in common.

Trying to plan coaching succession in sports is difficult; there aren't a lot of successful examples in the college ranks. Deano wanted Coach Gut to have his shot, but that didn't work out.

At the very top of the pyramid (Wooden, Knight, Deano, probably Boeheim someday), there is NO room for error. Unlike the corporate world, where success is defined by profits and growth, in sports making money isn't enough. Whomever replaces K when the time comes will be expected to land a top 10 class every year and contend for ACCT and NCAAT titles.

Let's see how Wojo and Collins do over the next few years, but I'm lukewarm.

I have no problems revisiting the succession issue every few years, especially in the offseason.

MCFinARL
05-29-2014, 01:30 PM
My thoughts... If Wojo or Collins have really good success and "starts to build programs"... they may actually stay where they are to continue to build their programs... so not really wanting to come back to Duke. If Dawkins has similar success and starts to build his program, I'm not sure he would be willing to come back to Duke either. As much as Duke meant to these guys, I would think that their "stamp" on building a program will have mean more to them. :cool:

And if Wojo, Collins, or Dawkins are not "attractive" at the time that Coach K hangs it up, will Duke take amy of them anyway?

Your post raises a good point that we don't always remember in these discussions--immediately following a legend is one of the hardest jobs in sports. Even if you do fairly well, some of the credit goes to the program that was already in place, and fans may still be disappointed with a good performance if it slips a little from earlier standards--just ask Gene Bartow.

So a former Duke assistant who is building a successful program somewhere else might have to think twice before taking that risk, even for what in theory looks like one of the best possible jobs in basketball.

CharlestonDave
05-30-2014, 06:31 AM
The best coach to replace Coach K would have been Brad Stevens but he was gobbled up by Danny Ainge in what I think was one great move. Stevens ,in my opinion, is going to be one terrific coach.

Troublemaker
05-30-2014, 08:36 AM
A few quick thoughts on finding Coach K's successor:

1. How did we get Coach K in the first place? Because Tom Butters took the advice of a legendary coach in Bob Knight, who recommended the hiring of Knight's former player-turned-assistant-turned-headcoach-at-Army Mike Krzyzewski.

Right now, Coach K is that legendary coach. And if Coach K recommends one of his former players-turned-assistant-turned-headcoach-elsewhere like an Amaker or Dawkins or Collins, Duke should consider Coach K's advice very seriously.

2. At the same time, I am not against looking outside the family as well. I guess the theory is that a bigger pool of candidates could lead to a better coach. Well, unless (A) Duke can get Shaka, which I doubt from a helicopter view, (B) things go poorly for Brad Stevens in Boston and he wants to come to Duke, or (C) Duke can somehow get another Hall-of-Fame-track coach like an Izzo to jump ship from his cushy job, it's all a crapshoot anyway, right?

That is, it would be just plain dumb luck to find a great coach if A, B, or C don't happen, and each appears unlikely to happen to me. If A, B, or C don't happen, I would hope Duke takes Coach K's advice if he advises Duke to hire one of his former players.

3. Realistically, there will most likely be a dropoff for the program with the next coach, whomever it turns out to be. Coaching legends are scarce.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
06-01-2014, 11:43 AM
Here's an interesting take on who might one day sit in the Big Chair on the sidelines.
http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/jeff-goodman/post?id=3658

OldPhiKap
06-01-2014, 12:19 PM
My vote is for Ozzie.

Jarhead
06-01-2014, 01:44 PM
What?! Another thread on Coach K succession? Over the next few years this can drive us all crazy. He's talking about next year's changes for the team while we're discussing who will be following him. In five years he may still be talking about personnel and leadership changes for the next season while we remain obsessed with his succession. If this keeps up it could very well choke off the recruiting process. Ozzie might be okay, though

Billy Dat
09-03-2014, 03:24 PM
CBS' Gary Parrish just visited with Wojo, C-Well and Tyler up at Marquette and everyone says any K retirement talk is silly for another 5-7 years, health permitting

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/eye-on-college-basketball/24693050/wojo-other-duke-alums-think-coach-k-is-far-from-retirement