2014 NBA Draft

[mr. synellinden]

Unbelievable - the Cavaliers get the #1 pick again (http://espn.go.com/nba/draft2014/story/_/id/10960593/2014-nba-draft-cleveland-cavaliers-land-no-1-overall-pick) - with a 1.7% chance -- and this time in a loaded draft. Do they go for the post presence in Embiid or a forward in Wiggins or Parker? And who is going to coach this team? The first thing I thought about when they won the draft lottery was - what are the chances Lebron comes back? All of a sudden, the Cavs' and Kyrie's future got much more interesting.

Also, I was distracted by the Bucks representative - Mallory Edens - the daughter of one of the new owners - who is about to become a household name and a Twitter sensation if it hasn't happened already. There are probably going to be a billion tweets that she won the lottery or that someone would take her with the 1st pick in the draft.

[Dukehky]

Barring some bad news with his team physicals, which will be very elaborate, the Cavs will take Joel Embiid, and probably should.

Now we all have to hope that Milwaukee takes Wiggins, because nobody wants to see Jabari play for the Bucks. Out of the top three, which I would be shocked to see Bari fall out of, I would much rather see him play in Philly than Cleveland or Milwaukee. Seriously, no more Duke kids under the tutelage of the worst owner in sports, Dan Gilbert. I also don't want my guy any where near the crap storm that is Johnny Football (who I actually like, but the media is going to lump all the young "Cleveland Stars" together)

Note: Sterling, worst person; Gilbert, worst owner.

[Selover]

Also, I was distracted by the Bucks representative - Mallory Edens - the daughter of one of the new owners - who is about to become a household name and a Twitter sensation if it hasn't happened already. There are probably going to be a billion tweets that she won the lottery or that someone would take her with the 1st pick in the draft.

Don't quote me, but I believe she's still in high school lol.

[gocanes0506]

My mock

CAVs- Parker. With as much of a mess as Bennett has been, the CAVs will pick the safest pick.
Bucks- Wiggins
BOS- Embiid (The 76ers already have a project big man. they will look to move out.)
Lakers- Exum. Lakers want him bad and will trade way too much to get him. #7 + next 1st rounder maybe even more
76ers- Randle (gives them a nasty combo with Noel. They have enough 2nd rounders to move up one slot.
Utah- Smart
Orlando- LaVine
Kings- Gordon
Charlotte- Harris
76ers- Hood
Denver- McDermott
Magic- Saric
Twolves- Young
Suns- Grant

[Newton_14]

Barring some bad news with his team physicals, which will be very elaborate, the Cavs will take Joel Embiid, and probably should.

Now we all have to hope that Milwaukee takes Wiggins, because nobody wants to see Jabari play for the Bucks. Out of the top three, which I would be shocked to see Bari fall out of, I would much rather see him play in Philly than Cleveland or Milwaukee. Seriously, no more Duke kids under the tutelage of the worst owner in sports, Dan Gilbert. I also don't want my guy any where near the crap storm that is Johnny Football (who I actually like, but the media is going to lump all the young "Cleveland Stars" together)

Note: Sterling, worst person; Gilbert, worst owner.

I think I disagree. My bet is they take Jabari. Embid, due to the back issues mainly, is still considered somewhat of a risk. Jabari is the closest thing to a sure thing there is in this draft, and after flopping with the Bennett pick last season, I think the Cavs want a sure thing. I think the Cavs keep the Duke connection going and take Jabari. I would if given the choice to make the decision for them.


The surprise to me is that for several weeks Randle has no longer been in the discussion with the "top 3". He was replaced by Embid in those conversations and is now lumped in the grouping with Smart, Aaron Gordon, Exum, and Noah Vonleh. Earlier in the year the big 3 of Parker, Wiggins, Randle was all the rage with all 3 being seen as the potential Number 1 pick depending on which team landed the top pick. The guy can play. I don't know that I would take anyone not named Parker or Wiggins over him.

I am not down on Embid but I am cautious with him. Incredible talent. I worry first about health and longevity, and to a lesser degree, what is his real ceiling? I wish him well. The league could use another dominant big man. Greg Oden was supposed to be that guy but health issues killed that dude.

[TexHawk]

Barring some bad news with his team physicals, which will be very elaborate, the Cavs will take Joel Embiid, and probably should.

Crazy all of the weird stuff out there tonight.

Chad Ford ‏@chadfordinsider 15m
I know, but good source in Cleveland just corrected me RT @440shane: Pre lotto you said they liked Parker?
Chad Ford ‏@chadfordinsider 18m
Our new Mock is my faithful editors hands. Think Andrew Wiggins is odds on favorite to go No. 1 to Cavs

I personally don't think Jabari makes much sense in Cleveland. He would be fighting for the leftover shots after Kyrie/Waiters get theirs. Wiggins doesn't need the ball as much right now, and he would immediately bring NBA-level defense. Parker makes more sense to Milwaukee (unfortunately) or Philly. Both teams need help offensively, and both have good defenders in the post who could hide him a bit.

If Cleveland doesn't take Embiid, I think he slips to 4, at the earliest.

[BlueDevilBrowns]

Seriously, no more Duke kids under the tutelage of the worst owner in sports, Dan Gilbert. I also don't want my guy any where near the crap storm that is Johnny Football (who I actually like, but the media is going to lump all the young "Cleveland Stars" together)

Note: Sterling, worst person; Gilbert, worst owner.

When has an NBA owner "taught" a player anything on the court? So I don't follow the "tutelage" comment.

Also "the crap storm that is Johnny Football" and lumping all the young Cleveland stars together? Again, what does this mean?

My thoughts are:

If the Cavs get Cal as head coach, look for them to draft Wiggins and make a push for Lebron.

Crazy? Yeah, but so is winning the lottery 3 out of 4 years.

If no Lebron, I see Parker as the "safe" and more likely pick.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Crazy all of the weird stuff out there tonight.

Chad Ford ‏@chadfordinsider 15m
I know, but good source in Cleveland just corrected me RT @440shane: Pre lotto you said they liked Parker?
Chad Ford ‏@chadfordinsider 18m
Our new Mock is my faithful editors hands. Think Andrew Wiggins is odds on favorite to go No. 1 to Cavs

I personally don't think Jabari makes much sense in Cleveland. He would be fighting for the leftover shots after Kyrie/Waiters get theirs. Wiggins doesn't need the ball as much right now, and he would immediately bring NBA-level defense. Parker makes more sense to Milwaukee (unfortunately) or Philly. Both teams need help offensively, and both have good defenders in the post who could hide him a bit.

If Cleveland doesn't take Embiid, I think he slips to 4, at the earliest.

The Cavs would be stupid to not take either Wiggins or Embiid. Both of these players have shown something that Parker has not: defense. The Cavs ranked 19 or 30 in defensive efficiency, and this was with a defensive-minded coach. With Parker, we are talking about their top 3 players who cannot play a lick of defense: Irving, Waiters, and Parker. That is a recipe for disaster.

With Wiggins, they have a potential top 3 defender and don't need to rely on Wiggins for offense for the first few years. With Embiid, they have a 7-foot Ibaka who has more potential than either Parker or Wiggins.

I really think that Parker goes either 2nd (Bucks, nooooooo) or 3rd (76ers, not bad). Also, I don't want Parker in basketball hell.

[superdave]

My mock

CAVs- Parker. With as much of a mess as Bennett has been, the CAVs will pick the safest pick.
Bucks- Wiggins
BOS- Embiid (The 76ers already have a project big man. they will look to move out.)
Lakers- Exum. Lakers want him bad and will trade way too much to get him. #7 + next 1st rounder maybe even more
76ers- Randle (gives them a nasty combo with Noel. They have enough 2nd rounders to move up one slot.
Utah- Smart
Orlando- LaVine
Kings- Gordon
Charlotte- Harris
76ers- Hood
Denver- McDermott
Magic- Saric
Twolves- Young
Suns- Grant

Did Boston and LA trade up? I must have missed when that happened...

[gocanes0506]

Did Boston and LA trade up?mi must have missed when that happened...

oh no but it may happen come draft day. just me mocking a draft.

[superdave]

The Cavs would be stupid to not take either Wiggins or Embiid. Both of these players have shown something that Parker has not: defense. The Cavs ranked 19 or 30 in defensive efficiency, and this was with a defensive-minded coach. With Parker, we are talking about their top 3 players who cannot play a lick of defense: Irving, Waiters, and Parker. That is a recipe for disaster.

With Wiggins, they have a potential top 3 defender and don't need to rely on Wiggins for offense for the first few years. With Embiid, they have a 7-foot Ibaka who has more potential than either Parker or Wiggins.

I really think that Parker goes either 2nd (Bucks, nooooooo) or 3rd (76ers, not bad). Also, I don't want Parker in basketball hell.

I think you are correct here. It will be interesting to see what happens with Embiid's back and with Kevin Love. Those two things will shape this draft at the top. But Parker is unlikely to go #1 overall.

[superdave]

oh no but it may happen come draft day. just me mocking a draft.

Seems to me that neither the Lakers or Celtics rebuild via the draft. Both are far more likely to shop their picks for veterans. I bet both try to put together packages including their lottery picks for Kevin Love.

[theAlaskanBear]

The Cav's can't take Parker because he and Bennett play the same position -- SF/PF tweener. It comes down to Embiid and Wiggins, unless Cleveland foresees an Irving exit and drafts Exum to trade Irving or Waiters. Embiid might be great next to Thompson, but Wiggins would be a safer pick. A college center with back problems? I don't want any part of that.

I don't see Wiggins as a great fit in Milwaukee, because of the early success of Giannis Antetokounmpo. The Bucks have a solid front line, I really think Exum would be a great fit, but I suppose they could take Parker -- they have a plethora of big men though. Embiid means trading Henson or Sanders (probably Sanders with his off-court issues).

Philly with the 3rd pick would be the best place for Parker to land. He can play SF/PF with Noel backing up the paint.

[TexHawk]

Seems to me that neither the Lakers or Celtics rebuild via the draft. Both are far more likely to shop their picks for veterans. I bet both try to put together packages including their lottery picks for Kevin Love.

The Lakers can probably do both. Love has always had his eyes on LA, and he will be a free agent regardless of trade. The Lakers could take someone like Marcus Smart, let him learn for a year, then roll with both of them in '15-16.

[brevity]

So... Cleveland wins the NBA Draft Lottery in 2011, 2013, and 2014.

The real winner in all of this? Anthony Davis, 2012.

[FireOgilvie]

I would probably take Wiggins at #1, but I think the Bucks will be thrilled to have Parker at 2.

The Cavs are a disaster. They're the only franchise that can take Luol Deng and turn him into a mediocre player - his numbers went down across the board on a worse team. Unfortunately, I'm a Cavs fan, but if I was building a championship roster in the Eastern Conference from scratch, I wouldn't want a single Cavs player on my roster anywhere, including Kyrie. I love the guy, but I think he should leave ASAP and go to the Western Conference where he can run up and down the court and not worry as much about things like defense or toughness. I don't see LeBron coming back unless some major changes occur; they need to blow up the entire roster and start from scratch.

[Duvall]

I would probably take Wiggins at #1, but I think the Bucks will be thrilled to have Parker at 2.

The Cavs are a disaster. They're the only franchise that can take Luol Deng and turn him into a mediocre player - his numbers went down across the board on a worse team. Unfortunately, I'm a Cavs fan, but if I was building a championship roster in the Eastern Conference from scratch, I wouldn't want a single Cavs player on my roster anywhere, including Kyrie. I love the guy, but I think he should leave ASAP and go to the Western Conference where he can run up and down the court and not worry as much about things like defense or toughness. I don't see LeBron coming back unless some major changes occur; they need to blow up the entire roster and start from scratch.

That may not be enough. Dissolving the franchise and adding an expansion team in Seattle is probably the safer bet.

[mattman91]

1. This is obviously rigged. The chances of Cleveland getting the top pick were only 1.7% higher than the chance of me getting drafted.
2. Glad Charlotte gets a top 10 pick.
3. Cool to see Kyle, as well as Nick's dad.
4. The Bucks daughter is very pretty, but not as drool worthy as her recent Twitter follower surge would suggest. :rolleyes:

[sagegrouse]

I would probably take Wiggins at #1, but I think the Bucks will be thrilled to have Parker at 2.

The Cavs are a disaster. They're the only franchise that can take Luol Deng and turn him into a mediocre player - his numbers went down across the board on a worse team. Unfortunately, I'm a Cavs fan, but if I was building a championship roster in the Eastern Conference from scratch, I wouldn't want a single Cavs player on my roster anywhere, including Kyrie. I love the guy, but I think he should leave ASAP and go to the Western Conference where he can run up and down the court and not worry as much about things like defense or toughness. I don't see LeBron coming back unless some major changes occur; they need to blow up the entire roster and start from scratch.

LeBron left Cleveland and Akron, his hometown, because he had spent 25 years there and wanted to be someplace else. The Beach? Ah, yes, the Beach. He was vilified by one and all Northern Ohioans when he left. Why would he ever consider returning?

LeBron could decide to stay in Miami, but one would have to guess that media markets like LA and NY, which each have two teams, would be as big a pull.

[Selover]

1. This is obviously rigged. The chances of Cleveland getting the top pick were only 1.7% higher than the chance of me getting drafted.
2. Glad Charlotte gets a top 10 pick.
3. Cool to see Kyle, as well as Nick's dad.
4. The Bucks daughter is very pretty, but not as drool worthy as her recent Twitter follower surge would suggest. :rolleyes:

KD seems to think otherwise....

4135

[flyingdutchdevil]

Normally, I'd be all over Duke players getting drafted as high as possible, but I really like the idea of Jabari in Philly. It just makes sense to me.

Philly, as of right now, has three assets worth anything: MCW, Thaddeus Young, and Nerlens. All three of these players are flawed, but they are all above-average defensive players. MCW is a steal champion, Young is a great pick-and-roll buster, and Noel can become a defensive anchor (he should it during his lone season and UK). Jabari can be hidden on defense with this current line-up. Also, Jabari's offense would be a God Send to this team of inept offensive players.

Philly can also draft an exciting 2, like LaVine, Hood, or Gary Harris, with their second pick. That would be a strong core in which to build upon for the future.

I would invest in Philly stock right now. It's cheap, but it can only go up!

[TexHawk]

Normally, I'd be all over Duke players getting drafted as high as possible, but I really like the idea of Jabari in Philly. It just makes sense to me.

This. As a KU fan, I really really want Wiggins in Philly. It's not on the Celtics/Lakers tier, but Philly is a Top 10 NBA franchise, with a lot of tradition and a large passionate fanbase. I agree with you that Parker fits better there, and that should be a perennial playoff team shortly, something you can't reliably say about Cleveland/Milwaukee.

It hurts the ego a bit, but so much about this is how these guys fills gaps on the prospective teams. I mean, you might look back in 10 years and be surprised that Parker went third, but he will likely playing a lot in May/June, so you won't really care.

[JasonEvans]

If I could be Cavs GM for a day...

I'm on the phone to Minnesota right now - Dion Waiters and Tristan Thompson for Kevin Love. Heck, I'll even throw in Anthony Bennett!

So, Cleveland would have Kyrie, Love, and whichever they want of Wiggins/Embiid/Parker. They would be a super attractive free agent destination for Lebron. Maybe Lebron wants a shotblocking center so you draft Embiid. Maybe he wants a crazy athlete and you take Wiggins. Maybe he wants to shape the next Lebron (almost, a multi-skilled big man) and you draft Parker.

By the way, Kevin Love makes this draft really interesting. Minnesota would trade him straight up for any of the top 3 picks but the drafting teams won make that deal. Would they deal him for #4 #5 or #6? I think the drafting teams would do that but I am not sure Minnesota would -- perhaps for #4 and Exum, but not for the picks that will end up being Smart/Randle/Gordon/Vonleh.

-Jason "the Cavs luck is incredible!" Evans

[flyingdutchdevil]

This. As a KU fan, I really really want Wiggins in Philly. It's not on the Celtics/Lakers tier, but Philly is a Top 10 NBA franchise, with a lot of tradition and a large passionate fanbase. I agree with you that Parker fits better there, and that should be a perennial playoff team shortly, something you can't reliably say about Cleveland/Milwaukee.

It hurts the ego a bit, but so much about this is how these guys fills gaps on the prospective teams. I mean, you might look back in 10 years and be surprised that Parker went third, but he will likely playing a lot in May/June, so you won't really care.

Yeah, I wouldn't pray for my worst enemy to play in Cleveland (except for UK and UNC players, of course).

That said, I see Wiggins as an amazing fit in Cleveland. They can absolutely use his defense and focus on developing his offense without putting too much pressure on him. Embiid would be a good fit in Cleveland as well, but he's kinda redundant for 1-2 years as long as Varejao is still there.

[yancem]

Seems to me that neither the Lakers or Celtics rebuild via the draft. Both are far more likely to shop their picks for veterans. I bet both try to put together packages including their lottery picks for Kevin Love.

Normally, I would agree with you but franchise players are difficult to come by outside of the draft and Kobe isn't getting any younger. Rondo is still a great pg but also isn't that young and while he is a great piece, he isn't a franchise player. If there was a year you wanted to have a high draft pick this would seem to be the year so I wouldn't be surprised to see the Lakers or Celtics do some wheeling and dealing to possibly move up a few spots.

[Billy Dat]

3. Cool to see Kyle

Yeah, he cleaned up real nice. It's too bad he turned out to be a horrendous good luck charm, and there was more than one Duke alum tied to this disaster.

http://www.mlive.com/pistons/index.ssf/2014/05/detroit_pistons_lose_first-rou.html

When the Pistons traded Ben Gordon for Corey Maggette a few years back, Detroit got a first round pick that was top 8 protected.

Cleveland's inexplicable jump into the top 3 bumped the Charlotte pick from 8 to 9, so the pick went back to Charlotte. Detroit will get their pick next year.

Stan Van Gundy was seen crying into his shoulder pads.

[blazindw]

Yeah, he cleaned up real nice. It's too bad he turned out to be a horrendous good luck charm, and there was more than one Duke alum tied to this disaster.

http://www.mlive.com/pistons/index.ssf/2014/05/detroit_pistons_lose_first-rou.html

When the Pistons traded Ben Gordon for Corey Maggette a few years back, Detroit got a first round pick that was top 8 protected.

Cleveland's inexplicable jump into the top 3 bumped the Charlotte pick from 8 to 9, so the pick went back to Charlotte. Detroit will get their pick next year.

Stan Van Gundy was seen crying into his shoulder pads.

As a Pistons fan, I knew that trade would kill us, but the specifics are slightly off. We traded Ben Gordon and OUR 2014 1st rounder to Charlotte for Corey Maggette. So, by Cleveland moving up into the top 3, we fell from 8 to 9 and our top 8 protected pick went to Charlotte.

How off was that trade? We traded a starter and a 1st rounder for Maggette, who I love but wasn't going to start in Detroit. Maggette only lasted a season on the team. When the trade went down, everyone was all over Joe Dumars for the decision (even then, people knew that the 2014 draft would be the deepest in years).

Last night, we had an 82% chance to either be 1-2-3 or 8, but most Pistons fans knew that with our luck, we had a 100% chance of someone below us moving into the top 3 and dropping us to 9 and out of our pick. Our worst fears were confirmed. And of course, it's Cleveland again. :mad:

[Henderson]

There are a lot of moving variables that impact the draft. If I were Cavs management, I'd be talking to Kyrie and Luol right now. Kyrie because of his potential position as a franchise player and the possibility of a max extension. Deng because the question what he wants as a free agent would properly impact whether Jabari is even on the list for them. And I'd ask them, "What do you think about the draft and how might one selection or another affect your thinking?"

One possible play for the Cavs: Let Deng go and sign Jabari instead. Use the difference in salaries to buy a defense (it's close to $10M). I think it's likely that Kyrie will stay at Cleveland, because the max extension offer will be too much to ignore. Team him with Jabari and add some talent by cutting Deng loose?

Another potential play for the Cavs: Re-sign Deng; max extension to Kyrie; draft Wiggins, and dump toxic Deion Waiters (he has value). Let Spencer Hawes and Tyler Zeller cover the post.

It's tough to draw up a scenario that makes the Cavs a big winner next season, but they are in an historic position to get better. If they don't, with all these draft picks, we might as well just light the Cuyahoga on fire again and turn our heads in dismay never to look back.

[Kedsy]

Normally, I would agree with you but franchise players are difficult to come by outside of the draft and Kobe isn't getting any younger. Rondo is still a great pg but also isn't that young and while he is a great piece, he isn't a franchise player. If there was a year you wanted to have a high draft pick this would seem to be the year so I wouldn't be surprised to see the Lakers or Celtics do some wheeling and dealing to possibly move up a few spots.

But what makes you (and others who have predicted this) think that the Lakers or Celtics have anything that would interest Cleveland, Milwaukee, or Philadelphia enough to trade their top three pick? Or even Orlando or Utah to trade the 4/5. Do LA or Boston really have any pieces so interesting to a rebuilding franchise who (except for Cleveland) tanked for a whole season just to get where they are?

[Henderson]

But what makes you (and others who have predicted this) think that the Lakers or Celtics have anything that would interest Cleveland, Milwaukee, or Philadelphia enough to trade their top three pick?

In the case of LA: Girls.

In the case of Boston: Seafood that doesn't glow in the dark.

[roywhite]

Normally, I'd be all over Duke players getting drafted as high as possible, but I really like the idea of Jabari in Philly. It just makes sense to me.

Philly, as of right now, has three assets worth anything: MCW, Thaddeus Young, and Nerlens. All three of these players are flawed, but they are all above-average defensive players. MCW is a steal champion, Young is a great pick-and-roll buster, and Noel can become a defensive anchor (he should it during his lone season and UK). Jabari can be hidden on defense with this current line-up. Also, Jabari's offense would be a God Send to this team of inept offensive players.

Philly can also draft an exciting 2, like LaVine, Hood, or Gary Harris, with their second pick. That would be a strong core in which to build upon for the future.

I would invest in Philly stock right now. It's cheap, but it can only go up!


This. As a KU fan, I really really want Wiggins in Philly. It's not on the Celtics/Lakers tier, but Philly is a Top 10 NBA franchise, with a lot of tradition and a large passionate fanbase. I agree with you that Parker fits better there, and that should be a perennial playoff team shortly, something you can't reliably say about Cleveland/Milwaukee.

It hurts the ego a bit, but so much about this is how these guys fills gaps on the prospective teams. I mean, you might look back in 10 years and be surprised that Parker went third, but he will likely playing a lot in May/June, so you won't really care.

Agree that either Wiggins or Parker would be a great fit for the 76ers.

I'm wondering what happens if they go 1, 2? Do the 76ers pick Embiid?
Doesn't Embiid overlap substantially with Noel?
And importantly....can they tell what they have with Noel? A developing star, or injury-plagued and not able to emerge?

Just my guess --- if Jabari and Wiggins are gone, the Sixers look to trade out of the #3 slot.

[RoyalBlue08]

I am sure I will be proven wrong some day, but my hope is that the Cavs take Embiid, as I think he is the best fit to go along with Kyrie. (I am not convinced Wiggins might not end up being a very athletic bust and Parker+Kyrie=no defense.) And then since the Bucks are such a mess, I hope Parker goes to Philly and is part of a franchise heading in the right direction.

[BlueDevilBrowns]

If I could be Cavs GM for a day...

I'm on the phone to Minnesota right now - Dion Waiters and Tristan Thompson for Kevin Love. Heck, I'll even throw in Anthony Bennett!

So, Cleveland would have Kyrie, Love, and whichever they want of Wiggins/Embiid/Parker. They would be a super attractive free agent destination for Lebron. Maybe Lebron wants a shotblocking center so you draft Embiid. Maybe he wants a crazy athlete and you take Wiggins. Maybe he wants to shape the next Lebron (almost, a multi-skilled big man) and you draft Parker.





Before the Cavs talk trade scenarios with anyone, though, they HAVE to get a coach first. So my first call as GM would be to Calipari. Sell him on the #1 pick, Kyrie, and the possibility of Lebron. We all know that Lebron and Cal are close, and I think Calipari has it so good in KY right now that the only way he'd leave is for a chance at NBA redemption with Lebron.

A fall-back option for the Cavs would be George Karl(not my favorite choice but not terrible, either). He could at least utilize Kyrie's transition and offensive game along with Waiters to score a ton of points and at least sneak into the playoffs next year as 6-8 seed.

In that scenario, I see Parker as the pick(a safe pick to make up for the Bennett disaster last year). Even though Parker and Bennett play the same spot, Bennett is so bad that he'd probably be traded or stuck riding the bench.

The only issue with trading for Love is he only has 1 year left on his deal, so he'd have to agree to an extension before giving up the #1 pick and/or Waiters & co. for him. W/O an agreement, I'd still make a trade offer, but the #1 pick would be off the table.

I know it's fun and easy to pick on the Cavs, but, really, their only a player or two away from respectability.

As a fan of Cleveland sports, I still have hope. :eek:

[Kedsy]

I'm wondering what happens if they go 1, 2? Do the 76ers pick Embiid?

Here in Philadelphia, this is a common topic of conversation. While Embiid and Noel together would be a really formidable defensive tandem, they'd also make the team rather offensively challenged. Also, teaming two injury-plagued guys who essentially play the same position seems a risky recipe.

On the other hand, who would help the 76ers at that point? Exum and Smart play the same position as Carter-Williams, though Randle might be a fit. So possibly trading Embiid/the 3rd pick for Randle/the 5th or 6th pick might make sense, but I'm not sure what Utah or Boston have that would make it worth the Sixers while to trade down. Maybe next year's first round pick? Would Embiid over Randle be worth that much to the Jazz or Celtics? It'll be interesting to see how this unfolds.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Agree that either Wiggins or Parker would be a great fit for the 76ers.

I'm wondering what happens if they go 1, 2? Do the 76ers pick Embiid?
Doesn't Embiid overlap substantially with Noel?
And importantly....can they tell what they have with Noel? A developing star, or injury-plagued and not able to emerge?

Just my guess --- if Jabari and Wiggins are gone, the Sixers look to trade out of the #3 slot.

Very interesting...

My guess? They draft Embiid and either a) use him as a trading chip, b) test the Embiid/Nerlens experiment for a year or two (kinda like the Drummond/Monroe experience that has had moderate success), or c) ship Nerlens.

I'd go with b), especially considering that Philly is in no hurry to rebuild (they have publicly stated that this is a multi-year rebuild).

[jipops]

I would probably take Wiggins at #1, but I think the Bucks will be thrilled to have Parker at 2.

The Cavs are a disaster. They're the only franchise that can take Luol Deng and turn him into a mediocre player - his numbers went down across the board on a worse team. Unfortunately, I'm a Cavs fan, but if I was building a championship roster in the Eastern Conference from scratch, I wouldn't want a single Cavs player on my roster anywhere, including Kyrie. I love the guy, but I think he should leave ASAP and go to the Western Conference where he can run up and down the court and not worry as much about things like defense or toughness. I don't see LeBron coming back unless some major changes occur; they need to blow up the entire roster and start from scratch.

Half of the top 10 in defensive efficiency resides in the Western Conference. So you may be thinking of some different era.

Assuming that Embid is fully healthy I think he fits the needs of the Cavs the best. Like dutchdevil said, Cleveland desperately needs some sort of defensive presence and Jabari has not shown he can fulfill that need. Embid may not fully fit that bill right now but he has shown the potential. I think Wiggins is a bit of a wildcard in this draft as well. He could be on the level of Paul George, or he could be another Evan Turner.

I don't think there is any sure thing with the top 3 picks. Any or all three could be perennial all-stars or they could go the way of nba journey-men or of course somewhere in between, Jabari included.

[superdave]

It makes sense for Minny to do a deal for Love this summer rather than get nothing for him next summer. Here are several ways Kevin Love could shape the draft, in order of likelihood:

1. Lakers - This year's #7 and two future #1's plus Pau Gasol in a sign-and-trade deal. Without Gasol, the Lakers do not have enough salary to make the deal work.
2. Celtics - Rondo and the #6 pick. I dont know that Boston does this deal. That's basically Noah Vonleh/Julius Randle plus Rondo for Love. But Boston does not have a ton of assets.
3. Philly - #3 pick (Parker or Embiid) plus Thaddeus Young for Love. I dont think Minny would trade Love straight up for a pick.
4. Cleveland - #1 plus Waiters plus salaries (Varajao) for Love and Kevin Martin. Cleveland makes this move if they are really serious about bring LeBron back. Starting lineup - Irving/Martin Lebron/Thompson/Love. A fine team there.
5. Houston could trade Lin's expiring, Asik's expiring and their 2014 (#25) or 2015 draft pick for Love. Minny would probably be interested in re-singing Asik. Lin not so much. This deal has the least effect on this year's draft.

[superdave]

Here in Philadelphia, this is a common topic of conversation. While Embiid and Noel together would be a really formidable defensive tandem, they'd also make the team rather offensively challenged. Also, teaming two injury-plagued guys who essentially play the same position seems a risky recipe.

On the other hand, who would help the 76ers at that point? Exum and Smart play the same position as Carter-Williams, though Randle might be a fit. So possibly trading Embiid/the 3rd pick for Randle/the 5th or 6th pick might make sense, but I'm not sure what Utah or Boston have that would make it worth the Sixers while to trade down. Maybe next year's first round pick? Would Embiid over Randle be worth that much to the Jazz or Celtics? It'll be interesting to see how this unfolds.

There are a couple options here. First, if you like Exum, he could allow MCW to play off the ball and you'd have a formidably large backcourt. Second, Embiid and Noel would only be on the court together for 16-18 minutes per game assuming they each average 30-32 minutes. Plus you need at least three quality big men in your rotation, if not four.

There is so much unknown today about Embiid's back. This will come into sharper focus in the next few weeks. Embiid could got #1 or he could pull a Noel if his back does not check out or if they limit his MRI's to Cleveland and Philly.

No bad options in Philly....

[JasonEvans]

I dunno about what they do with the pick, but has anyone thought about how insane it is that Cleveland won the lottery again!??!?!

They won the #1 pick last night despite having just a 1.7% chance of getting the top pick.
They also won the lottery in 2013, a year in which they had just a 15.6% chance of landing the top pick.
In 2011, they got Kyrie after winning the lottery with a pick they got from the LA Clippers. That pick had just a 2.8% chance of winning the lottery.

So, a little handy work with my calculator shows they had a .0074256% chance to win all three of those #1 picks. Put in language everyone can understand, that's less than 1 in 10,000 chance. Actually, it about a 1 in 13,500 chance.

It is worth noting that in 2012 they were in the lottery with 13.8% chance of getting the top pick but they failed and ended up picking 4th, so the horseshoe did not work that season. Still, to win it 3 out of 4 years -- two of which were crazy small chances -- is just insane.

-Jason "all of the good luck should be tempered by the fact that they used one of those #1 picks on Anthony Bennett, who appears poised to make Michael Olowkandi and Kwame Brown look like solid #1 picks" Evans

[Billy Dat]

I dunno about what they do with the pick, but has anyone thought about how insane it is that Cleveland won the lottery again!??!?!

They won the #1 pick last night despite having just a 1.7% chance of getting the top pick.
They also won the lottery in 2013, a year in which they had just a 15.6% chance of landing the top pick.
In 2011, they got Kyrie after winning the lottery with a pick they got from the LA Clippers. That pick had just a 2.8% chance of winning the lottery.

So, a little handy work with my calculator shows they had a .0074256% chance to win all three of those #1 picks. Put in language everyone can understand, that's less than 1 in 10,000 chance. Actually, it about a 1 in 13,500 chance.

It is worth noting that in 2012 they were in the lottery with 13.8% chance of getting the top pick but they failed and ended up picking 4th, so the horseshoe did not work that season. Still, to win it 3 out of 4 years -- two of which were crazy small chances -- is just insane.

-Jason "all of the good luck should be tempered by the fact that they used one of those #1 picks on Anthony Bennett, who appears poised to make Michael Olowkandi and Kwame Brown look like solid #1 picks" Evans

This post made me go and check on the lottery history to see who has won it the most. The crazy thing is that 2 of the Cavs 5 lottery wins were thanks to picks they got from the Clippers! A truly co-dependent loser relationship.

Cleveland Cavaliers 5
Los Angeles Clippers 3
Orlando Magic 3
Chicago Bulls 2
Milwaukee Bucks 2
New Jersey Nets 2
San Antonio Spurs 2
Washington Wizards 2
Charlotte Hornets 1
Golden State Warriors 1
Houston Rockets 1
New Orleans Hornets 1
New York Knicks 1
Philadelphia 76ers 1
Portland Trail Blazers 1
Sacramento Kings 1
Toronto Raptors 1

[FireOgilvie]

I dunno about what they do with the pick, but has anyone thought about how insane it is that Cleveland won the lottery again!??!?!

They won the #1 pick last night despite having just a 1.7% chance of getting the top pick.
They also won the lottery in 2013, a year in which they had just a 15.6% chance of landing the top pick.
In 2011, they got Kyrie after winning the lottery with a pick they got from the LA Clippers. That pick had just a 2.8% chance of winning the lottery.

So, a little handy work with my calculator shows they had a .0074256% chance to win all three of those #1 picks. Put in language everyone can understand, that's less than 1 in 10,000 chance. Actually, it about a 1 in 13,500 chance.

It is worth noting that in 2012 they were in the lottery with 13.8% chance of getting the top pick but they failed and ended up picking 4th, so the horseshoe did not work that season. Still, to win it 3 out of 4 years -- two of which were crazy small chances -- is just insane.

-Jason "all of the good luck should be tempered by the fact that they used one of those #1 picks on Anthony Bennett, who appears poised to make Michael Olowkandi and Kwame Brown look like solid #1 picks" Evans

I looked it up and Bennett averaged less points than any #1 draft pick in their first season playing since Charlie Share (Boston Celtics) in 1950.

[GGLC]

Portland Trail Blazers 1


Sigh. :(

Lost a literal coinflip in 1984 for the chance to take Hakeem, too. And we all know how that turned out.

The Blazers have been absolutely snakebitten with top-two draft picks: twice offered a choice between an eventual all-time great and some other guy, and twice went with the other guy.

[superdave]

Sigh. :(

Lost a literal coinflip in 1984 for the chance to take Hakeem, too. And we all know how that turned out.

The Blazers have been absolutely snakebitten with top-two draft picks: twice offered a choice between an eventual all-time great and some other guy, and twice went with the other guy.

To be fair, Greg Oden was on every 1st or 2nd All-American team and put up 25 and 12 in the title game. He was the real deal until his knee endured the Dust Bowl and Great Depression as soon as he was drafted. He was a good pick the day of the draft, unlike Darko or Olawokandi. Not that that is much consolation.

[GGLC]

To be fair, Greg Oden was on every 1st or 2nd All-American team and put up 25 and 12 in the title game. He was the real deal until his knee endured the Dust Bowl and Great Depression as soon as he was drafted. He was a good pick the day of the draft, unlike Darko or Olawokandi. Not that that is much consolation.

Totally agreed on all counts. That's why they're snakebitten rather than incompetent. :) Doesn't make watching Kevin Durant dominate the league any less painful, though.

[FireOgilvie]

Half of the top 10 in defensive efficiency resides in the Western Conference. So you may be thinking of some different era.



Well, 11 of the top 15 teams in PACE reside in the Western Conference and the top 11 teams in PPG all play in the West. Eight out of the top 10 teams in offensive efficiency are in the Western Conference, while 8 out of the bottom 10 are Eastern Conference teams. Certainly there are differences between the conferences. Kyrie is well-suited to a fast-paced game. It's easier to play defense for 15 seconds than 20+ seconds, and I don't think it's crazy to say he's more of a finesse player than a grind-it-out type of guy. We'll see who the new Cavs coach is; they're actually well-equipped for a "run-'n-gun" style if they choose to go that way.

[jipops]

Well, 11 of the top 15 teams in PACE reside in the Western Conference and the top 11 teams in PPG all play in the West. Eight out of the top 10 teams in offensive efficiency are in the Western Conference, while 8 out of the bottom 10 are Eastern Conference teams. Certainly there are differences between the conferences. Kyrie is well-suited to a fast-paced game. It's easier to play defense for 15 seconds than 20+ seconds, and I don't think it's crazy to say he's more of a finesse player than a grind-it-out type of guy. We'll see who the new Cavs coach is; they're actually well-equipped for a "run-'n-gun" style if they choose to go that way.

I think all this means is that the Western conference overall is just better. Not lacking in toughness or defensive prowess.

[nmduke2001]

my completely random nba draft thoughts:

I would guess that a starting five that includes Kyrie and Jabari would be the worst defensively starting five in the league. Fun to watch, but a complete mess on the defensive end.

In regards to Wiggins, I believe that he will be Corey Maggette 2.0. Crazy athlete, good basketball player but not a superstar.

I think Smart is going to be the steal of the draft. The NBA has become a guard dominated league. Smart is as close to Westbrook or Wade that this draft has to offer. I'd be really happy picking up Smart at 7 or later. He's a guy that plays well offensively, but more importantly, he can defend guys like Westbrook, Paul, Curry and Parker.

[Olympic Fan]

Sigh. :(

Lost a literal coinflip in 1984 for the chance to take Hakeem, too. And we all know how that turned out.

The Blazers have been absolutely snakebitten with top-two draft picks: twice offered a choice between an eventual all-time great and some other guy, and twice went with the other guy.

The lost coin flip is bad luck ... using the No. 2 pick for Sam Bowie rather than Michael Jordan is just plain stupidity.

I would add that both Bowie and Oden were high ceiling big men with a history of injury problems. The risks were there for everybody to see. It's kind of like Embiid this year -- if you want to gamble on him, great, but if injuries ruin his career I don't want to hear complaints about "bad lick".

BTW As long as we are talking about Portland, didn't the Blazers waste the No. 1 pick in 1972 (before the lottery) on an all-time flop named LeRue Martin, rather than making the pick everybody though they should have made -- future Hall of Famer and three-time scoring champ Bob McAdoo?

[TexHawk]

I think Smart is going to be the steal of the draft. The NBA has become a guard dominated league. Smart is as close to Westbrook or Wade that this draft has to offer. I'd be really happy picking up Smart at 7 or later. He's a guy that plays well offensively, but more importantly, he can defend guys like Westbrook, Paul, Curry and Parker.

I'd like to know what planet Marcus Smart plays well offensively on, because it certainly isn't this one. He's a horrific shooter (41% for his college career, Wade shot 50%). He put up ok numbers because he shot 8 FTs per game, flopping all over the court. That won't fly in the NBA, and will eventually get him fined/suspended. The NBA (in general) is pretty good at taking things away from opposing players. Nobody will play within 3 feet of Smart, blocking his access to the basket, which is really the only thing he does well offensively.

He will be above average defensively, he makes his money on steals. To be fair, that is pretty easy to do against the TCUs and Techs of the Big12 schedule. It will be interesting how he defends the opposing PGs in the league.

I do enjoy the narrative surfacing again that he should be drafted high because he's a "winner", a guy who makes his teammates better. I mean, his teams went a whopping 45-22 in his two years in college, never won a conference title or saw a conference tournament final, and went 0-2 in the NCAA tournament. Plus that whole, 'fan altercation' thing. Sounds like a winner to me.

[JasonEvans]

Smart is as close to Westbrook or Wade that this draft has to offer. I'd be really happy picking up Smart at 7 or later.

Smart may be the closest thing to Westbrook or Wade in this draft, but that doesn't mean he is anywhere as good as they are, especially on offense. In this case "close" is not close enough.

I also suspect that, though he may not play like Westbrook or Wade, the best guard in this draft will be Dante Exum. 6-9 wingspan with PG skills is hard to find! If he develops a better jumpshot, he could be a perennial all-star.

-Jason "BTW, if I'm the Cavs, I'm taking Wiggins" Evans

[flyingdutchdevil]

-Jason "BTW, if I'm the Cavs, I'm taking Wiggins" Evans

This. Weirdly, the Cavs and Wiggins are meant for each other.

Here are the reasons:

1) If Wiggins is the next Lebron, best to start his career in Cleveland, right? I mean, isn't that how the media and Wiggins portrayed him?

2) Cleveland = unstructured offense with inept defense. Wiggins = great defense with unstructured / inept offense. Match made in heaven!

3) Cleveland = star or bust. Wiggins = star or bust. Perfect!

[BD80]

... -Jason "all of the good luck should be tempered by the fact that they used one of those #1 picks on Anthony Bennett, who appears poised to make Michael Olowkandi and Kwame Brown look like solid #1 picks" Evans

In all fairness the draft was very week, not many great picks

[Henderson]

In all fairness the draft was very week, not many great picks

Mason and Ryan send their regards.

[Billy Dat]

Adam Zagoria ‏@AdamZagoria 26m
The Detroit Pistons requested an interview with Andre Dawkins of Duke, his agent told @SNYtv

Stan Van loves 3 point shooting!

[theAlaskanBear]

I don't understand all the drooling over Wiggins. To me he seems like a slightly better defending Harrison Barnes.

In fact, their statistics are very similar...with Wiggins athleticism just giving him better steal/block numbers and a .020 advantage finishing 2-pt shots. The whole idea that Wiggins is passive offensively and not a natural playmaker-scorer scares me death, given the hype around Barnes and how his "passive" career progressed.

In fact, if you compare Wiggins against Parker, I don't see any advantages conferred by Wiggins elite athleticism. Parker matches him in blocks and steals (a couple more blocks, a couple fewer steals), higher FG%, more points, better 3-pt shooter, better rebounder....heck, he even has a better d-rating than "going to be an elite defender" Wiggins.

I see Parker, and I see someone who is used to playing with weight, can bulk up and play at PF at 240 or overwhelm small SFs in the post.

Barnes who killed it at the draft combine with a 40'' vert and great speed, is a solid roleplayer, not a star, never will be a star. I see Wiggins the same way.

For me, I am drafting Embiid, Parker, Vonleh, Exum.

[superdave]

Mason and Ryan send their regards.

I like Mason and Ryan and I expect both guys to have long careers. But neither qualifies as great. It remains to be seen if anyone from the 2013 draft will even make an All-Star game.

[superdave]

I don't understand all the drooling over Wiggins. To me he seems like a slightly better defending Harrison Barnes.

In fact, their statistics are very similar...with Wiggins athleticism just giving him better steal/block numbers and a .020 advantage finishing 2-pt shots. The whole idea that Wiggins is passive offensively and not a natural playmaker-scorer scares me death, given the hype around Barnes and how his "passive" career progressed.

In fact, if you compare Wiggins against Parker, I don't see any advantages conferred by Wiggins elite athleticism. Parker matches him in blocks and steals (a couple more blocks, a couple fewer steals), higher FG%, more points, better 3-pt shooter, better rebounder....heck, he even has a better d-rating than "going to be an elite defender" Wiggins.

I see Parker, and I see someone who is used to playing with weight, can bulk up and play at PF at 240 or overwhelm small SFs in the post.

Barnes who killed it at the draft combine with a 40'' vert and great speed, is a solid roleplayer, not a star, never will be a star. I see Wiggins the same way.

For me, I am drafting Embiid, Parker, Vonleh, Exum.

Here's a major reason why scouts love Wiggins: http://ftw.usatoday.com/2014/05/andrew-wiggins-vertical-leap

Kid's got a 44 inch vertical.

Scouts believe that Wiggins can be a big 2 or a 3. They believe Jabari is an undersized 4 because he is not the typical 6'10'' and has a shorter vertical reach than standard 4's. He is also not quick enough laterally to guard many 3s. They think Wiggins can learn the offensive polish that Jabari has but that Jabari will never be as athletic as Wiggins. In short, Wiggins will improve his jumper but Jabari wont improve his height or reach.

[roywhite]

I like Mason and Ryan and I expect both guys to have long careers. But neither qualifies as great. It remains to be seen if anyone from the 2013 draft will even make an All-Star game.

Fair question, though I expect Michael Carter-Williams will be an All-Star, maybe Victor Oladipo. Possibly Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway?

Wasn't a great class.

[roywhite]

Here's a major reason why scouts love Wiggins: http://ftw.usatoday.com/2014/05/andrew-wiggins-vertical-leap

Kid's got a 44 inch vertical.

Scouts believe that Wiggins can be a big 2 or a 3. They believe Jabari is an undersized 4 because he is not the typical 6'10'' and has a shorter vertical reach than standard 4's. He is also not quick enough laterally to guard many 3s. They think Wiggins can learn the offensive polish that Jabari has but that Jabari will never be as athletic as Wiggins. In short, Wiggins will improve his jumper but Jabari wont improve his height or reach.

Wiggins also has the special, and important, ability for double jumps, or the ability to again get off the floor very quickly after his first leap; that can lead to extra baskets or defensive stops.

He appears to be an elite athlete even by NBA standards.

[Billy Dat]

Here's a major reason why scouts love Wiggins: http://ftw.usatoday.com/2014/05/andrew-wiggins-vertical-leap

Kid's got a 44 inch vertical.

Scouts believe that Wiggins can be a big 2 or a 3. They believe Jabari is an undersized 4 because he is not the typical 6'10'' and has a shorter vertical reach than standard 4's. He is also not quick enough laterally to guard many 3s. They think Wiggins can learn the offensive polish that Jabari has but that Jabari will never be as athletic as Wiggins. In short, Wiggins will improve his jumper but Jabari wont improve his height or reach.

A lot of this stuff boils down to what one thinks can be taught and what can't. I was very impressed by Wiggins this year. The thing he seems to lack is consistent all out play and the instinct to take over a game. But, maybe a lot of that was because he was a freshman. I saw much more than a freak athlete, he had range, finished on the break like a monster, D'ed up...I think he's going to be really really good.

I am surprised there isn't more chatter about Randle. He is a relentless machine. I think, even at 6'9", his game will translate. I feel like Vonieh moving ahead of Randle is a workout phenomenon.

[TexHawk]

I don't understand all the drooling over Wiggins. To me he seems like a slightly better defending Harrison Barnes.

In fact, their statistics are very similar...with Wiggins athleticism just giving him better steal/block numbers and a .020 advantage finishing 2-pt shots. The whole idea that Wiggins is passive offensively and not a natural playmaker-scorer scares me death, given the hype around Barnes and how his "passive" career progressed.

In fact, if you compare Wiggins against Parker, I don't see any advantages conferred by Wiggins elite athleticism. Parker matches him in blocks and steals (a couple more blocks, a couple fewer steals), higher FG%, more points, better 3-pt shooter, better rebounder....heck, he even has a better d-rating than "going to be an elite defender" Wiggins.

I see Parker, and I see someone who is used to playing with weight, can bulk up and play at PF at 240 or overwhelm small SFs in the post.

Barnes who killed it at the draft combine with a 40'' vert and great speed, is a solid roleplayer, not a star, never will be a star. I see Wiggins the same way.

For me, I am drafting Embiid, Parker, Vonleh, Exum.

My thoughts are on record, and I don't want to lose any more friends over it. ;) I will just say that if you really think that Wiggins/Parker are close in defensive ability, well, um... I will admit to being an irrational fan, but I truly believe that Wiggins should have been the NDPOY last season.

As far as offense goes, it will be hard to convince everyone, because he's being compared to Jabari Parker, who is (without a doubt) a better and more polished offensive player. But Wiggins is no slouch. Outside of Parker and McDermott, he put up better offensive numbers than anyone in this draft. He shot better than Parker after the noncon season was over (where he played the toughest schedule in the country), and had a better ORtg.

[theAlaskanBear]

Here's a major reason why scouts love Wiggins: http://ftw.usatoday.com/2014/05/andrew-wiggins-vertical-leap

Kid's got a 44 inch vertical.

Scouts believe that Wiggins can be a big 2 or a 3. They believe Jabari is an undersized 4 because he is not the typical 6'10'' and has a shorter vertical reach than standard 4's. He is also not quick enough laterally to guard many 3s. They think Wiggins can learn the offensive polish that Jabari has but that Jabari will never be as athletic as Wiggins. In short, Wiggins will improve his jumper but Jabari wont improve his height or reach.

Yes I saw that. 5 players at the NBA combine jumped 40''+ (two small forwards -- Glen RobIII and Cleanthony Early) and Aaron Gordon hit 39''. Barnes himself was 40''. How do those extra inches translate to the court? If Wiggins is really so much more dominant athletically, how come he wasn't able to impose his will on the court?

Maybe his game will translate to the NBA, but I think its 3-4 years before he is a good offensive player.

[superdave]

Yes I saw that. 5 players at the NBA combine jumped 40''+ (two small forwards -- Glen RobIII and Cleanthony Early) and Aaron Gordon hit 39''. Barnes himself was 40''. How do those extra inches translate to the court? If Wiggins is really so much more dominant athletically, how come he wasn't able to impose his will on the court?

Maybe his game will translate to the NBA, but I think its 3-4 years before he is a good offensive player.

The comp for Wiggins that I see the most is Tracy McGrady. Well, look at McGrady's statistical projection:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/m/mcgratr01.html

7 to 9 to 15 to 27 points per game his first four years. I think Wiggins averages more than 7 next season. The questions is can he reach the mid 20s by season 4? I bet so. There are not a ton of great 2s and 3s in the league. If he adds a consistent 3-ball, he's going to be top 10 in scoring evenutally, if not top 5.

[TexHawk]

If Wiggins is really so much more dominant athletically, how come he wasn't able to impose his will on the court?
I think you may be reading into the take of analysts too much. "Imposing his will on the court" has been attached to him for months, and there is no way he can get rid it.

Wiggins averaged 17ppg in the 1st or 2nd best cbb conference, and played the toughest nonconference schedule in the country. He was 2nd team AA. He scored 26 points in Gainesville, on the #2 AdjD in the country. He scored 30 on fellow lottery pick Marcus Smart. He imposed his will defensively in every game he played.

He had a bad, uninspired offensive performance at the worst possible time, but it shouldn't negate everything else he did.

P.S. If you are looking for an example of him imposing his will, you should check out the highlights of his game against K-State in February. Down 2 with 5 seconds left, he drove the basket, missed a layup, landed out of bounds, jumped back in bounds to tip in his own shot, before anyone else could get off the ground. That sent the game to OT (where KU eventually lost). I wish I could find video of that play, it was astonishing.

[JasonEvans]

The comp for Wiggins that I see the most is Tracy McGrady. Well, look at McGrady's statistical projection:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/m/mcgratr01.html

7 to 9 to 15 to 27 points per game his first four years. I think Wiggins averages more than 7 next season. The questions is can he reach the mid 20s by season 4? I bet so. There are not a ton of great 2s and 3s in the league. If he adds a consistent 3-ball, he's going to be top 10 in scoring evenutally, if not top 5.

McGrady came to the NBA out of high school, not as a freshman. So, the logical comparison would be for Wiggins to average 9ppg (as McGrady did in his 2nd NBA season).

-Jason "people forget how good McGrady was -- for about 7 years or so, he was almost certainly among the top 5 players in the game" Evans

[JasonEvans]

P.S. If you are looking for an example of him imposing his will, you should check out the highlights of his game against K-State in February. Down 2 with 5 seconds left, he drove the basket, missed a layup, landed out of bounds, jumped back in bounds to tip in his own shot, before anyone else could get off the ground. That sent the game to OT (where KU eventually lost). I wish I could find video of that play, it was astonishing.

Ask and ye shall receive. It is at the 2:37 mark of this video (https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=ArL7oHSklro#t=157).


https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=ArL7oHSklro#t=157

[Kedsy]

Maybe his game will translate to the NBA, but I think its 3-4 years before he is a good offensive player.

First of all, in my opinion, Wiggins and Barnes aren't at all alike. I can't imagine why you think that's the money comparison.

Second, while Wiggins isn't as polished or as strong an offensive player as Jabari, he was a pretty good college offensive player. Here's an offensive statistical comparison of Wiggins and Jabari:



Stat AW JP
---- --- ---
PPG 17.1 19.1
points per 40 20.8 25.0
Usage 25.4 31.7
oRating 112.3 111.5
eFG% 49.8% 51.1%
true shooting % 56.3% 55.8%
assist % 9.1 8.6
PER 21.4 28.4
win shares per 40 .170 .205
OR% 12.3 11.3


Yeah, Jabari has the advantage, but it's not as big an advantage as you might think, meaning Wiggins was no slouch on offense. And Jabari was generally considered to be one of the best two offensive players in college this season, so it's not so much of a black mark against Wiggins that he's not quite as good an offensive player as Jabari.

Interestingly, one of Jabari's biggest advantages over Wiggins is Jabari is a much better defensive rebounder, with a 23.0 DR%, versus Wiggins's 14.1 DR%. Not sure how well that will translate to the NBA, but you never know.

[theAlaskanBear]

My thoughts are on record, and I don't want to lose any more friends over it. ;) I will just say that if you really think that Wiggins/Parker are close in defensive ability, well, um... I will admit to being an irrational fan, but I truly believe that Wiggins should have been the NDPOY last season.

As far as offense goes, it will be hard to convince everyone, because he's being compared to Jabari Parker, who is (without a doubt) a better and more polished offensive player. But Wiggins is no slouch. Outside of Parker and McDermott, he put up better offensive numbers than anyone in this draft. He shot better than Parker after the noncon season was over (where he played the toughest schedule in the country), and had a better ORtg.

There is no way Wiggins was the defensive player of the year. There is nothing in his stats to suggest or his play to suggest that. He projects to be a good defender, he has the physical tools to be...but in no way was his performance last year worthy of this discussion.

Lets look at it this way. Wiggins has a Drating of 102.8 with was 7th best on HIS TEAM (I DQ'd Manning and Wesley due to minutes played or it would have been 9th best). His defensive win shares tied him for first on the team with Embiid, solely because of his minutes/games played numbers. Embiid matches his defensive win shares with half the minutes of Wiggins. He is 5th in block %, 3rd in stl % and 8th in trb %. This is on HIS OWN TEAM (note teh DQ of Manning and Wesley when looking up these stats). How can you make the case for defensive player of the year? It is an irrational projection based on what people expect him to become. Wiggins was an important cog in a very good team defense.

Now lets look at Parker. For all the crap his reputation gets on the defensive side of the ball, he led Duke with a 99.3 Drtg. He is better shot blocker than Wiggins, matches his stl% and is a better rebounder. 1.9 defensive win shares as opposed to 1.7 for Wiggins.

What the numbers suggest are that Parker was the best defensive player on a poor defensive team (and sometimes played out of position as the primary big man), while Wiggins was good defender (but not as good as Parker?) with really outstanding defensive players around him. I guess you could make an argument that the Big-12 was such a superior conference that Wiggins numbers don't matter, but I don't have access to Kenpom to make these comparisons easily. Also, the fact that Wiggins' teammates fared far better defensively than he did undermine this suggestion.

These arguments don't even address the offensive side of the ball and the fact that Wiggins' per-40 win shares were a pedestrian .170 good for 4th best on his team (Embiid and Ellis both above .200).

[Kedsy]

Lets look at it this way. Wiggins has a Drating of 102.8 with was 7th best on HIS TEAM...

* * *

Now lets look at Parker. For all the crap his reputation gets on the defensive side of the ball, he led Duke with a 99.3 Drtg. He is better shot blocker than Wiggins, matches his stl% and is a better rebounder. 1.9 defensive win shares as opposed to 1.7 for Wiggins.

What the numbers suggest are that Parker was the best defensive player on a poor defensive team (and sometimes played out of position as the primary big man), while Wiggins was good defender (but not as good as Parker?) with really outstanding defensive players around him.

You should look up how individual player dRating is calculated. Basically, it's the team dRating adjusted for individual blocks and steals. Thus Jabari's dRating was best on Duke's team because he had the best combination of blocks and steals, and Wiggins's dRating was way worse than Embiid's because Embiid was a blocking machine.

Put another way, dRating is a somewhat useless tool in evaluating a player's defensive abilities or comparing one player's defense to another's. Especially for a player like Jabari, who lurked for blocks and steals at the expense of proper positioning.

[theAlaskanBear]

First of all, in my opinion, Wiggins and Barnes aren't at all alike. I can't imagine why you think that's the money comparison.

Second, while Wiggins isn't as polished or as strong an offensive player as Jabari, he was a pretty good college offensive player. Here's an offensive statistical comparison of Wiggins and Jabari:



Stat AW JP
---- --- ---
PPG 17.1 19.1
points per 40 20.8 25.0
Usage 25.4 31.7
oRating 112.3 111.5
eFG% 49.8% 51.1%
true shooting % 56.3% 55.8%
assist % 9.1 8.6
PER 21.4 28.4
win shares per 40 .170 .205
OR% 12.3 11.3


Yeah, Jabari has the advantage, but it's not as big an advantage as you might think, meaning Wiggins was no slouch on offense. And Jabari was generally considered to be one of the best two offensive players in college this season, so it's not so much of a black mark against Wiggins that he's not quite as good an offensive player as Jabari.

Interestingly, one of Jabari's biggest advantages over Wiggins is Jabari is a much better defensive rebounder, with a 23.0 DR%, versus Wiggins's 14.1 DR%. Not sure how well that will translate to the NBA, but you never know.
FG-FGA-FG%-2P-2PA-2P%-3P-3PA-3P%-FT-FTA-FT%-TRB-AST-STL-BLK-TO-PF-PTS
8.0 18.5 .430 5.9 12.5 .469 2.1 6.0 .349 4.3 5.8 .734 7.5 1.7 1.2 0.5 2.7 2.5 22.3
6.6 14.7 .448 5.1 10.3 .493 1.5 4.4 .341 6.1 7.9 .775 7.1 1.9 1.4 1.2 2.8 3.3 20.8

per-40 stats. both 6-8 wings with freakish athleticism and reputation for being laid-back personalities and passive on offense. Wiggins is more efficient offensively, probably because of his athleticism around the basket.

PER-TS%-eFG%-orb%-drb%-trb%-ast%-stl%-blk%-to%-usg%-Ortg-Drtg-OWS-DWS-TWS-WS/40
20.3 .524 .487 7.1 11.9 9.5 8.4 1.7 1.3 11.1 27.3 109.9 96.4 5.6 3.9 9.4 .171
21.4 .563 .499 8.4 12.3 10.4 9.2 2.1 3.1 13.1 26.3 116.1 102.8 3.2 1.7 4.9 .170

advanced stats. both mediocre to poor rebounders, meh %'s, winshares.

Why is this a poor comparison?? They are very similar statistically.

PS I never figured out how to table stats. but I think its clear how close they are.

[theAlaskanBear]

You should look up how individual player dRating is calculated. Basically, it's the team dRating adjusted for individual blocks and steals. Thus Jabari's dRating was best on Duke's team because he had the best combination of blocks and steals, and Wiggins's dRating was way worse than Embiid's because Embiid was a blocking machine.

Put another way, dRating is a somewhat useless tool in evaluating a player's defensive abilities or comparing one player's defense to another's. Especially for a player like Jabari, who lurked for blocks and steals at the expense of proper positioning.

The point of Drtg was not that Jabari is a better defender than Wiggins, but that Wiggins elite athleticism doesn't create a dominant player or production on the court. If Wiggins is such a superior defender with such elite athleticism, why is it so invisible statistically?

[Kedsy]

Why is this a poor comparison?? They are very similar statistically.

It's a poor comparison because they had completely different playing styles. Barnes for long stretches just hung out on the perimeter taking threes. Wiggins was more of a slasher. Barnes took a higher percentage of his team's shots (a little over 29% for his career while Wiggins took 26.7% of his team's shots this season), relied a lot more on the three (28.3% of his career points were from three-pointers, vs. 21.6% for Wiggins), and got to the line a lot less (career FT rate of 31.5% vs. 53.7% for Wiggins).

And comparing players with different styles and skill sets is especially difficult if you're attempting to predict NBA success, because different styles and skill sets translate differently at the higher level. I just don't think Barnes is a decent comp for Wiggins at all.

[TexHawk]

There is no way Wiggins was the defensive player of the year. There is nothing in his stats to suggest or his play to suggest that. He projects to be a good defender, he has the physical tools to be...but in no way was his performance last year worthy of this discussion.

Lets look at it this way. Wiggins has a Drating of 102.8 with was 7th best on HIS TEAM (I DQ'd Manning and Wesley due to minutes played or it would have been 9th best). His defensive win shares tied him for first on the team with Embiid, solely because of his minutes/games played numbers. Embiid matches his defensive win shares with half the minutes of Wiggins. He is 5th in block %, 3rd in stl % and 8th in trb %. This is on HIS OWN TEAM (note teh DQ of Manning and Wesley when looking up these stats). How can you make the case for defensive player of the year? It is an irrational projection based on what people expect him to become. Wiggins was an important cog in a very good team defense.

Now lets look at Parker. For all the crap his reputation gets on the defensive side of the ball, he led Duke with a 99.3 Drtg. He is better shot blocker than Wiggins, matches his stl% and is a better rebounder. 1.9 defensive win shares as opposed to 1.7 for Wiggins.

What the numbers suggest are that Parker was the best defensive player on a poor defensive team (and sometimes played out of position as the primary big man), while Wiggins was good defender (but not as good as Parker?) with really outstanding defensive players around him. I guess you could make an argument that the Big-12 was such a superior conference that Wiggins numbers don't matter, but I don't have access to Kenpom to make these comparisons easily. Also, the fact that Wiggins' teammates fared far better defensively than he did undermine this suggestion.

These arguments don't even address the offensive side of the ball and the fact that Wiggins' per-40 win shares were a pedestrian .170 good for 4th best on his team (Embiid and Ellis both above .200).

I don't know what KU team you were watching this year, but outside of Wiggins and Embiid (when he was on the floor), every other player was a below average defender. The starting PG, Tharpe, probably couldn't guard my sister. The team, as a whole, was tremendously awful at forcing turnovers (292nd in the country). They finished #31 in AdjD, which is the worst defensive performance in Bill Self's KU career. KU had been Top-10 in AdjD every year since 2005, #1 in 2007 and 2008. The 2014 defense would have been monstrously bad without Wiggins.

I don't really believe he could have won the NDPOY, because all of these awards are stats-based. Wiggins doesn't get steals/blocks, he's a perimeter defender with a tremendous first jump, to get his hand in the face of an opposing shooter without fouling. That will translate to the NBA immediately.

I just think he was the best defensive player I saw all season, and there isn't anyone else I would take over him. (Though Josh Heustis was awesome when locked Wiggins down in St. Louis.)

[Kedsy]

The point of Drtg was not that Jabari is a better defender than Wiggins, but that Wiggins elite athleticism doesn't create a dominant player or production on the court. If Wiggins is such a superior defender with such elite athleticism, why is it so invisible statistically?

Because steals and blocks are pretty much the only defensive stats out there, and they do a fairly poor job of showing superior defensive abilities.

[theAlaskanBear]

It's a poor comparison because they had completely different playing styles. Barnes for long stretches just hung out on the perimeter taking threes. Wiggins was more of a slasher. Barnes took a higher percentage of his team's shots (a little over 29% for his career while Wiggins took 26.7% of his team's shots this season), relied a lot more on the three (28.3% of his career points were from three-pointers, vs. 21.6% for Wiggins), and got to the line a lot less (career FT rate of 31.5% vs. 53.7% for Wiggins).

And comparing players with different styles and skill sets is especially difficult if you're attempting to predict NBA success, because different styles and skill sets translate differently at the higher level. I just don't think Barnes is a decent comp for Wiggins at all.

You may see them as completely different players, but I think its just a difference of degrees. He's more athletic than Barnes, so better at finishing around the rim and drawing contact. I will be really interested to hear about Wiggins speed and lateral quickness as the draft process moves forward. This is where I miss Wiggins doing some of the combine drills. Also I am interested to see how well he adds muscle. If he plans on playing SF, he will need another 20-30 pounds. Most NBA small forwards are 6'7''+ and 230+ pounds...he will be going against these guys from day one.

I just think Wiggins is looking at a lot more development. He is not an instant star or superstar. Embiid will have a bigger defensive impact, Parker will have a bigger offensive impact, and guys like Aaron Gordon and Noah Vonleh could wind up to be just as good defenders and better offensive players.

[kAzE]

I don't quite see the McGrady comparison, because I just don't envision Wiggins becoming the type of shot-maker T-Mac was at his prime. Wiggins will probably never lead the league in scoring, but defensively, he's probably going to be much better. He's way more scrappy and hustles, so I see him grabbing more rebounds than T-Mac's career average of 3 per game. Harrison Barnes doesn't strike me as a good comparison either. Aside from the fact that Barnes sucks at basketball, Wiggins is way more athletic, and just has so much more upside. Really, I think the best comparison for him is Paul George, because of his elite legnth and athleticism, streaky offensive game, and really solid play on the defensive end.

I'm a long time Cavs fan, and I really don't think it's possible to go wrong with this pick. It's gotta be either Wiggins or Parker, and either guy would be a spectacular fit. Embiid is an option, with Varejao getting older, and being injured 120% of the time, but I think the smart, long-term choice would be Wiggins. You can quote numbers, but I think we all know that Parker will never be an elite defensive player, whereas Wiggins has a real chance to become a dominant 2-way player. As much fun as it would be to have Parker and Irving on the same team (If that happens, they should trade for Corey Maggette and Austin Rivers and then re-sign Luol Deng, and it would be the Duke 1-and-done all-star team), I think the fact that they are both defensively challenged would be too much of a liability for the other 3 players on the court to compensate. All that said, I'm glad I'm not David Griffin, though, because I would not be able to resist taking Jabari #1. The best basketball decision seems to be Wiggins.

I've got no delusions about my team, the Cavaliers organization is a total mess. I honestly feel like they will somehow mismanage all of this and the whole thing blows up in their face again, Kyrie leaves for free agency, and Lebron stays in Miami. Because I'm a bigger Duke than any team in the NBA, I would much prefer to see Jabari land in Philadelphia, where I think the management has a good plan. He's going to be a great player wherever he lands, but I think he's set up really well to be the go-to-guy and develop with a young team in Philly that has some guys who look like they could become good enough defensive players to cover for Parker. The ideal fit I think would have been the Celtics, but at #6, they're pretty much out of the running for Jabari. But the Sixers is a really good situation too. They've got crazy amounts of cap room, the #3 and the #10 pick in this year's draft, and a pretty nice young core with Carter-Williams, Noel, and Young. If they got Jabari and then a shooter with the #10 pick, maybe Stauskas or even McBuckets, that could be a playoff team in 2 years, even if they didn't land a big free agent with all that extra money.

[superdave]

Chad Ford chat from yesterday (http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/50630), post-lottery. He gets into teams trading into and out of the lottery, as well as the Cavs-Love stuff.

One intriguing trade deal that could make a lot of sense: Philly sends the #3 to Utah for the #5, #23 and one of two 4th year players Enes Kanter (12.3 and 7.5 in 26 minutes last season) or Alec Burks (14 pts in 28 minutes).

Utah gets LDS star Jabari Parker at #3, assuming Embiid's back checks out and he and Wiggins go 1-2. Philly would get either a starting 2-guard in Burks or a 4 in Kanter to play alongside Noel. Philly could also draft one of Gordon/Randle/Vonleh at #5 and a role player such as Napier/McGary/Warren at #23.

Would Philly rather have Parker (or Embiid/Exum) at #3 - all starters and potential All-Stars, or would they rather have Kanter/Burks plus Vonleh/Randle/Gordon plus a role player? It's essentially a potential star vs. depth. I am guessing Philly stands pat at #3 and winds up with Parker being their leading scorer for the next dozen years.

[kAzE]

Chad Ford chat from yesterday (http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/50630), post-lottery. He gets into teams trading into and out of the lottery, as well as the Cavs-Love stuff.

One intriguing trade deal that could make a lot of sense: Philly sends the #3 to Utah for the #5, #23 and one of two 4th year players Enes Kanter (12.3 and 7.5 in 26 minutes last season) or Alec Burks (14 pts in 28 minutes).

Utah gets LDS star Jabari Parker at #3, assuming Embiid's back checks out and he and Wiggins go 1-2. Philly would get either a starting 2-guard in Burks or a 4 in Kanter to play alongside Noel. Philly could also draft one of Gordon/Randle/Vonleh at #5 and a role player such as Napier/McGary/Warren at #23.

Would Philly rather have Parker (or Embiid/Exum) at #3 - all starters and potential All-Stars, or would they rather have Kanter/Burks plus Vonleh/Randle/Gordon plus a role player? It's essentially a potential star vs. depth. I am guessing Philly stands pat at #3 and winds up with Parker being their leading scorer for the next dozen years.

You answered your own question. In every NBA transaction, the team that gets the star is the winner. How many times has it been proven that the NBA is a league that is about it's stars? If I'm Philly and I have a chance to acquire a potential all-star on a rookie deal vs a bunch of rotation guys, that's a no-brainer. They shouldn't trade that pick for anything less than an all-star level player or multiple lottery picks.

[superdave]

You answered your own question. In every NBA transaction, the team that gets the star is the winner. How many times has it been proven that the NBA is a league that is about it's stars? If I'm Philly and I have a chance to acquire a potential all-star on a rookie deal vs a bunch of rotation guys, that's a no-brainer.

They may be thinking of stockpiling assets and utilizing all that cap space though. For example, if they get a frontline via the draft and trade (Noel, Vonleh at #5 and Enes Kanter) then go after Carmelo this summer with a max contract, they are in great shape. They also got MCW at #11 last year so they may think their scouting is better than everyopne else's and try to be clever.

[Henderson]

Totally agreed on all counts. That's why [the Blazers are] snakebitten rather than incompetent. :) Doesn't make watching Kevin Durant dominate the league any less painful, though.

If you repeatedly hold a snake to your neck and get bitten, the distinction between being incompetent and "snakebitten" starts to become a fine one.

The Blazers passed on Michael Jordan to draft Sam Bowie, and they passed on Kevin Durant to draft Greg Oden. Neither move was bat-gauno crazy according to the "experts" at the time, but both were decried as bat-guano crazy at the time by many of us serious Blazer fans. And those people were proven right. Message: Take the best available player, no matter his position or your needs. Oh, and injury-prone big men? No.

In this draft, Joel Embiid strikes me as a strong candidate for the Bowie-Oden award. High risk, high reward (maybe) selection the Cavs just can't afford to take. Take Wiggins, trade Waiters for a high 2015 pick, make a big push to keep Deng for 3 years (or use his salary cap room to buy a replacement), and leverage that whole effort with Kyrie. Sign Kyrie, then call LeBron.

Only question: Can Kyrie be happy with Wiggins on the team? If he wants to win, he needs to share limelight. The two of them could be a force if the Cavs can find one great inside player. I don't think that player is Joel Embiid, and the Cavs can't have both Wiggins and Embiid.

[theAlaskanBear]

Chad Ford chat from yesterday (http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/50630), post-lottery. He gets into teams trading into and out of the lottery, as well as the Cavs-Love stuff.

One intriguing trade deal that could make a lot of sense: Philly sends the #3 to Utah for the #5, #23 and one of two 4th year players Enes Kanter (12.3 and 7.5 in 26 minutes last season) or Alec Burks (14 pts in 28 minutes).

Utah gets LDS star Jabari Parker at #3, assuming Embiid's back checks out and he and Wiggins go 1-2. Philly would get either a starting 2-guard in Burks or a 4 in Kanter to play alongside Noel. Philly could also draft one of Gordon/Randle/Vonleh at #5 and a role player such as Napier/McGary/Warren at #23.

Would Philly rather have Parker (or Embiid/Exum) at #3 - all starters and potential All-Stars, or would they rather have Kanter/Burks plus Vonleh/Randle/Gordon plus a role player? It's essentially a potential star vs. depth. I am guessing Philly stands pat at #3 and winds up with Parker being their leading scorer for the next dozen years.

Do the trade. Vonleh has great potential, both Kanter and Burks are solid players -- either would be a nice piece for the 76ers. The 76ers have about a million picks this draft, they have to trade some of them -- 4 2nd round for picks for a late 1st maybe?

[Class of '94]

I don't quite see the McGrady comparison, because I just don't envision Wiggins becoming the type of shot-maker T-Mac was at his prime. Wiggins will probably never lead the league in scoring, but defensively, he's probably going to be much better. He's way more scrappy and hustles, so I see him grabbing more rebounds than T-Mac's career average of 3 per game. Harrison Barnes doesn't strike me as a good comparison either. Aside from the fact that Barnes sucks at basketball, Wiggins is way more athletic, and just has so much more upside. Really, I think the best comparison for him is Paul George, because of his elite legnth and athleticism, streaky offensive game, and really solid play on the defensive end.

I'm a long time Cavs fan, and I really don't think it's possible to go wrong with this pick. It's gotta be either Wiggins or Parker, and either guy would be a spectacular fit. Embiid is an option, with Varejao getting older, and being injured 120% of the time, but I think the smart, long-term choice would be Wiggins. You can quote numbers, but I think we all know that Parker will never be an elite defensive player, whereas Wiggins has a real chance to become a dominant 2-way player. As much fun as it would be to have Parker and Irving on the same team (If that happens, they should trade for Corey Maggette and Austin Rivers and then re-sign Luol Deng, and it would be the Duke 1-and-done all-star team), I think the fact that they are both defensively challenged would be too much of a liability for the other 3 players on the court to compensate. All that said, I'm glad I'm not David Griffin, though, because I would not be able to resist taking Jabari #1. The best basketball decision seems to be Wiggins.

I've got no delusions about my team, the Cavaliers organization is a total mess. I honestly feel like they will somehow mismanage all of this and the whole thing blows up in their face again, Kyrie leaves for free agency, and Lebron stays in Miami. Because I'm a bigger Duke than any team in the NBA, I would much prefer to see Jabari land in Philadelphia, where I think the management has a good plan. He's going to be a great player wherever he lands, but I think he's set up really well to be the go-to-guy and develop with a young team in Philly that has some guys who look like they could become good enough defensive players to cover for Parker. The ideal fit I think would have been the Celtics, but at #6, they're pretty much out of the running for Jabari. But the Sixers is a really good situation too. They've got crazy amounts of cap room, the #3 and the #10 pick in this year's draft, and a pretty nice young core with Carter-Williams, Noel, and Young. If they got Jabari and then a shooter with the #10 pick, maybe Stauskas or even McBuckets, that could be a playoff team in 2 years, even if they didn't land a big free agent with all that extra money.

I wouldn't be surprised if Danny Ainge and the Celtics try to make a trade to get into the top 3 to get Jabari. I remember Ainge went to a lot of Duke games this past season. Of course, he could've been looking at both Rodney and Jabari; but I too think Jabari would fit nicely with the Celtics and Brad Stevens.

[Kedsy]

I wouldn't be surprised if Danny Ainge and the Celtics try to make a trade to get into the top 3 to get Jabari. I remember Ainge went to a lot of Duke games this past season. Of course, he could've been looking at both Rodney and Jabari; but I too think Jabari would fit nicely with the Celtics and Brad Stevens.

I asked this earlier in the thread, but what do the Celtics have that could convince any of the top 3 teams to trade their pick?

[tommy]

I asked this earlier in the thread, but what do the Celtics have that could convince any of the top 3 teams to trade their pick?

They have Rondo and didn't they fleece the Nets for a bunch of picks in the Pierce and Garnett deals?

[pfrduke]

I asked this earlier in the thread, but what do the Celtics have that could convince any of the top 3 teams to trade their pick?

Rondo, 6 & 17 in this draft, 2 2015 first rounders (theirs and the Clippers'), 2 2016 first rounders (theirs and Brooklyn's), a pick-swap in 2017 (with Brooklyn) and 2 2018 first rounders (theirs and Brooklyn's). Many of those picks may end up being low first round picks, but it's a load of picks that can be included in any package.

[CDu]

They have Rondo and didn't they fleece the Nets for a bunch of picks in the Pierce and Garnett deals?

None of those picks is as valuable as this year's top-3 pick. And an older and often-injured Rondo isn't as appetizing either.

[tommy]

None of those picks is as valuable as this year's top-3 pick. And an older and often-injured Rondo isn't as appetizing either.

Of course none of those picks alone is worth a top 3 this year. I suggested a couple of those picks PLUS Rondo might be.

[Kedsy]

Of course none of those picks alone is worth a top 3 this year. I suggested a couple of those picks PLUS Rondo might be.

It's possible the #6 pick plus Rondo plus another 1st rounder might get it done. But would the Celtics want to do that? It's hard to imagine.

[tommy]

It's possible the #6 pick plus Rondo plus another 1st rounder might get it done. But would the Celtics want to do that? It's hard to imagine.

Maybe. They've got just a boatload of desirable assets at their disposal. According to Bill Simmons, they've got the following:

two 2014 picks (no. 6 and no. 17), two 2015 first-rounders (their own and an unprotected Clippers pick), two unprotected Brooklyn first-rounders (2016 and 2018), a pick swap from Brooklyn in 2017 (unprotected), a $10.3 million trade exception, Keith Bogans’s waivable-ASAP contract ($5.1 million, perfect for trade match), Brandon Bass’s deal (expires in 2015) and two decent young players (Jared Sullinger and Kelly Olynyk).

So even if they gave up the #6 plus Rondo and another first rounder, say, next year's, which I admit does sound like an awful lot, they'd still have the # 17 this year, a #1 next year, Brooklyn's two in '16 and '18, and much more. Maybe worth it.

[JasonEvans]

Here is the problem with the trade scenarios for the top 3 picks, every team in the top 3 is banking on that pick -- and the hope for the future that it represents -- to sell tickets and revitalize a struggling franchise. To give up a pick everyone in the NBA and all your fans are drooling over for a mid-lottery pick plus another pick that could fall anywhere in the draft plus Rajon Rondo is a formula for your fans to revolt.

If you deal out of the top 3 and the guy you could have drafted turns into a super-stud, you forever look like the bozo GM who took Bowie over Jordan. I think it is going to be very hard to pry one of those top 3 picks away unless you are offering something really attractive that instantly makes your team muuuuch better... like Kevin Love.

-Jason "question for the masses -- would you trade any of the top 3 picks straight up for Love? Potential versus a sure-thing. Love is only 25 years old" Evans

[Kedsy]

-Jason "question for the masses -- would you trade any of the top 3 picks straight up for Love? Potential versus a sure-thing. Love is only 25 years old" Evans

Not if he's going to be a free agent after next season. All these teams are in rebuilding mode. What good does a one year rental do them? And even if you can do some sort of sign-and-trade, he'll still be paid waaaaaay more than your top 3 pick for the next few seasons. Maybe Cleveland, if Kyrie is in favor of it and they think LeBron might come back, but even that seems a long shot to me.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Not if he's going to be a free agent after next season. All these teams are in rebuilding mode. What good does a one year rental do them? And even if you can do some sort of sign-and-trade, he'll still be paid waaaaaay more than your top 3 pick for the next few seasons. Maybe Cleveland, if Kyrie is in favor of it and they think LeBron might come back, but even that seems a long shot to me.

I agree that the "rent Kevin Love for one year" thing would be a deal breaker. But I'm not sold on the $$$ or the rebuilding factors. Kevin Love instantly makes whatever team he goes to an exciting place to play. He can draw in other free agents or, even better, his team can pull a Kevin-Garnett-for-7-subpar-pieces. And I think this works for Cleveland (Waiters, Thompson, Bennett, future picks...okay, maybe not Bennett), Philly (MCW, Nerlens, Young, plenty of future picks), and Milwaukee (Greek Freak, angry Larry Sanders, Khris Middleton, future picks). I mean, with that group, they aren't going to get Kevin Durant, but I can see them getting another disgruntled All-Star (Pau Gasol, Rando, maybe the last few years of Zach Randolph's career).

If he goes to Cleveland, a core of Kyrie, Love, and Another-All-Star would be a really exciting offensive group. Given, this group couldn't defend their own shadows, but they'd definitely draw in some crowds.

[CDu]

Of course none of those picks alone is worth a top 3 this year. I suggested a couple of those picks PLUS Rondo might be.

I was trying to say that the sum of those picks don't match the value. A ton of good-but-not-great players is worth less than one star player. That is the risk run by giving up a top 3 pick this year for any collection of picks outside the top-5.

[johnb]

Chad Ford chat from yesterday (http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/50630), post-lottery. He gets into teams trading into and out of the lottery, as well as the Cavs-Love stuff.

One intriguing trade deal that could make a lot of sense: Philly sends the #3 to Utah for the #5, #23 and one of two 4th year players Enes Kanter (12.3 and 7.5 in 26 minutes last season) or Alec Burks (14 pts in 28 minutes).

Utah gets LDS star Jabari Parker at #3, assuming Embiid's back checks out and he and Wiggins go 1-2. Philly would get either a starting 2-guard in Burks or a 4 in Kanter to play alongside Noel. Philly could also draft one of Gordon/Randle/Vonleh at #5 and a role player such as Napier/McGary/Warren at #23.

Would Philly rather have Parker (or Embiid/Exum) at #3 - all starters and potential All-Stars, or would they rather have Kanter/Burks plus Vonleh/Randle/Gordon plus a role player? It's essentially a potential star vs. depth. I am guessing Philly stands pat at #3 and winds up with Parker being their leading scorer for the next dozen years.

Vonleh is viewed as the biggest upward surprise of the Combine. If the 76ers see Vonleh as a future all star, and equal to the 3 top tier guys, then the above trade would be excellent for them (especially if they get rotation players at 23 and via a trade). Such a view might be unlikely, but I wasn't overwhelmed by either of the Kansas players during the course of the season. It didn't help that I was so busy rooting against their team that perhaps I wasn't viewing them with the proper distance, but I was more impressed by Young and Randle, and I was even more biased against Kentucky than Kansas.

[superdave]

If you deal out of the top 3 and the guy you could have drafted turns into a super-stud, you forever look like the bozo GM who took Bowie over Jordan. I think it is going to be very hard to pry one of those top 3 picks away unless you are offering something really attractive that instantly makes your team muuuuch better... like Kevin Love.

-Jason "question for the masses -- would you trade any of the top 3 picks straight up for Love? Potential versus a sure-thing. Love is only 25 years old" Evans


Not if he's going to be a free agent after next season. All these teams are in rebuilding mode. What good does a one year rental do them? And even if you can do some sort of sign-and-trade, he'll still be paid waaaaaay more than your top 3 pick for the next few seasons. Maybe Cleveland, if Kyrie is in favor of it and they think LeBron might come back, but even that seems a long shot to me.

Love is not going to get traded to a team that is renting him for a year. A team would only pursue a deal if Love says he wants to go there to stay (Boston/LALakers) or if he signs an extension as part of the deal. Love would likely only go to Cleveland if he knew Lebron was coming home. That communication could happen because of their Team USA relationship. But Lebron probably does know yet himself. My guess is if the Heat win the title again this year, Lebron will not opt out and will stay put in Miami and try to 4-peat. But if Miami were to lose the finals, and Wade/Bosh arent pulling the weight they use to pull, then there's a decent chance Lebron opts out this summer. Under that scenario, it is also just as likely that Lebron works with Love to go somewhere like LA as it is they make plans for Cleveland.

I'd be willing to bet that based on how he worked with Wade/Bosh four years ago, Lebron works behind the scenes to orchestrate something similar if he jumps ship this year (or next).

As for trading a top 3 pick straight up for Love, I think Cleveland would do that with the #1 because they want to win now. I think Philly would that at #3 as well. The question gets complicated when it comes to Love's preferences though. Love seems like he wants to go to the Lakers (Ucla and West Coast background). My guess is Love would not agree to an extension in Cleveland without knowing Lebron was coming and would not agree to an extension with Philly unless there was a second move involved (Melo?).

Also, what are the salary cap rules? Love is on the books for $15.7 million next year. A top 3 picks makes $4.5 to 5.0 million or so, so I think other pieces would have to be involved (trade exception, package of vet players, etc) to even out the salaries.

Super "enjoying the speculation" Dave

[Billy Dat]

Good write up of NBA front office blinded analysis of Embid, Wiggins, Parker and Randle.

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/ryen-russillos-nba-draft-confidential-real-scouts-on-wiggins-randle-embiid-and-parker/

As I read more post-lottery draft analysis, there seems to be more of a #1 pick shift toward Embid. Consider the stuff in the article above and this from Bill Simmons:

http://grantland.com/features/the-nba-simmons-self-mailbag/

Q: Wait … what? You watched Joel Embiid work out last week?
A:...........News flash: As I said on TV before the lottery, Embiid was always going first. None of these teams was passing on him. Repeat: none of them. The amount of smokescreening going on in April and May was high comedy..........

[flyingdutchdevil]

Good write up of NBA front office blinded analysis of Embid, Wiggins, Parker and Randle.

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/ryen-russillos-nba-draft-confidential-real-scouts-on-wiggins-randle-embiid-and-parker/

As I read more post-lottery draft analysis, there seems to be more of a #1 pick shift toward Embid. Consider the stuff in the article above and this from Bill Simmons:

http://grantland.com/features/the-nba-simmons-self-mailbag/

Q: Wait … what? You watched Joel Embiid work out last week?
A:...........News flash: As I said on TV before the lottery, Embiid was always going first. None of these teams was passing on him. Repeat: none of them. The amount of smokescreening going on in April and May was high comedy..........

Thanks Billy.

The Ryan Russillo piece is definitely worth a read. Main conclusions from the piece:

1) Embiid is going #1. And it ain't even a discussion
2) Wiggins is incredibly overrated. Will be defensive maestro, but his offense is suspect
3) Scouts really like Jabari. But they don't think he can be a first banana and lead the team to a championship. Like DBR, absolutely hate his defense.

Unfortunately, I think this means that Jabari goes to Milwaukee...not a good thing at all.

[Billy Dat]

Big workout in LA today for many top prospects. The tweets are starting to flow about Jabari...

Jeff Goodman ‏@GoodmanESPN 40m
NBA guy on Jabari Parker -- working out now in LA. "He doesn't look toned by any means but him getting really fat look exaggerated."

Chad Ford ‏@chadfordinsider 1m
Jabari just finished working out. Went hard. Shot it well. Ended it with a series of emphatic dunks. Overall he looked really good.

[Bluegrassdevil1]

Good write up of NBA front office blinded analysis of Embid, Wiggins, Parker and Randle.

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/ryen-russillos-nba-draft-confidential-real-scouts-on-wiggins-randle-embiid-and-parker/

As I read more post-lottery draft analysis, there seems to be more of a #1 pick shift toward Embid. Consider the stuff in the article above and this from Bill Simmons:

http://grantland.com/features/the-nba-simmons-self-mailbag/

Q: Wait … what? You watched Joel Embiid work out last week?
A:...........News flash: As I said on TV before the lottery, Embiid was always going first. None of these teams was passing on him. Repeat: none of them. The amount of smokescreening going on in April and May was high comedy..........

The Grantland article contains some wonderful Parker observations:

"Don’t completely trust his shot. I think he’s really selfish, took some really tough contested shots, but probably because he looked at the [Duke] team around him and just said, “Fudge it.”

I worry about him as a small forward. If he was an elite athlete you could get by with him being a below-average shooter. If he was an elite shooter you could get by with him being a below-average athlete. Unfortunately, he’s below average in both. I’m a fan, but he can’t be your best player.

Defense … now that’s a problem. It’s like Coach K kept it a secret. Did not apply man-you-ball principles and at times he looked unconcerned. You can hide guys in a team defense, but does he care? He’s not laterally quick enough to guard today’s better small forwards. With his body type you wonder where it is going.

I know he is bad on defense, but so is Kyrie Irving."

I love the perception of Duke's last two great stars (Parker and Irving) being known as awful defenders, and team killers.

[Billy Dat]

Now Embid is working out in LA and the raves are pouring in...

Chad Ford ‏@chadfordinsider 2m
Embiid quickly re-asserting claim to # 1 pick here. Added muscle, still has quick feet & a beautiful jumper. No evidence of back issues

Adrian Wojnarowski ‏@WojYahooNBA 8m
Watching Joel Embiid in workout for league executives in Santa Monica. Impossible to imagine passing on him at No. 1.

[kAzE]

The Grantland article contains some wonderful Parker observations:

"Don’t completely trust his shot. I think he’s really selfish, took some really tough contested shots, but probably because he looked at the [Duke] team around him and just said, “Fudge it.”

I worry about him as a small forward. If he was an elite athlete you could get by with him being a below-average shooter. If he was an elite shooter you could get by with him being a below-average athlete. Unfortunately, he’s below average in both. I’m a fan, but he can’t be your best player.

Defense … now that’s a problem. It’s like Coach K kept it a secret. Did not apply man-you-ball principles and at times he looked unconcerned. You can hide guys in a team defense, but does he care? He’s not laterally quick enough to guard today’s better small forwards. With his body type you wonder where it is going.

I know he is bad on defense, but so is Kyrie Irving."

I love the perception of Duke's last two great stars (Parker and Irving) being known as awful defenders, and team killers.

I didn't take offense at any of the comments, to be honest. (The teammates comment was a bit overstated, thoug. Come on, hood was one of the better offensive players in the country last year) I don't think any of them said Jabari was a team killer, they all seemed to think he was a high character guy who could develop into a leader. I like Ryen russillo though, he's one of the guys at espn, along with Tim legler, who really knows his stuff when it comes to hoops.

I gave the Cavs situation some more thought after reading this and now I think Embiid is the right pick. If his back checks out with team doctors, I think you have to take him #1. Wiggins' lack of ball handling skills and a left hand are pretty glaring issues offensively, while embiid's amazing growth throughout his year at Kansas shows how good he could become. The thing that really sold me on him in that article is the fact that he's automatic from 15 feet with his jumper as a true 7 footer. A guy who can anchor your defense, and over time, develop into a guy who demands double teams in the post is about the rarest commodity there is in basketball, and you can't pass on that. I think the Cavs should take him, but they will probably be the morons that they are and take wiggins anyways. Either way, I think Parker goes #2 to the bucks.

[jipops]

I didn't take offense at any of the comments, to be honest. (The teammates comment was a bit overstated, thoug. Come on, hood was one of the better offensive players in the country last year) I don't think any of them said Jabari was a team killer, they all seemed to think he was a high character guy who could develop into a leader. I like Ryen russillo though, he's one of the guys at espn, along with Tim legler, who really knows his stuff when it comes to hoops.

I gave the Cavs situation some more thought after reading this and now I think Embiid is the right pick. If his back checks out with team doctors, I think you have to take him #1. Wiggins' lack of ball handling skills and a left hand are pretty glaring issues offensively, while embiid's amazing growth throughout his year at Kansas shows how good he could become. The thing that really sold me on him in that article is the fact that he's automatic from 15 feet with his jumper as a true 7 footer. A guy who can anchor your defense, and over time, develop into a guy who demands double teams in the post is about the rarest commodity there is in basketball, and you can't pass on that. I think the Cavs should take him, but they will probably be the morons that they are and take wiggins anyways. Either way, I think Parker goes #2 to the bucks.

With the responses coming in from his workout I hope the Cavs do take Embid. He could benefit a lot from playing with a pg like Kyrie and vice-versa.

There have been a few concerns over Jabari's body type. I wonder if this could cause him to go lower than 3rd?

[kAzE]

Here's a video of some of the highlights from his workout: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DSDl9JF5hvU&list=UUwtEu-BNlmexdrNrnFSY_LQ

He looked to be in GREAT shape, very quick and explosive. Correct me if I'm wrong, but he looks like he may have dropped a few pounds from his frame. He was also nailing stepback jumpers left and right (yes, the same stepback jumpers that caused Duke fans everywhere to groan in agony time and again last season). I'd be really worried that the Cavs might take him #1, except this happened:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gp7PX7hYUFQ&list=UUwtEu-BNlmexdrNrnFSY_LQ

Embiid looks like he's all the way back from the back issues, and he looked amazing in that video. Yes, these workouts are designed to make guys look really good, but he was hitting 15 footers with ease, nailing jump hooks, and using his ridiculous length to dunk balls from impossible distances. He looks every bit like the #1 pick to me. He's the most offensively skilled center to come out in AGES (counting Davis as a 4). The Cavs would be crazy to pass on such a rare talent. But then again, they are the Cavs.

[Furniture]

Jabari looked good but Oh my word that man (Embiid) is a beast!

[FireOgilvie]

Here's a video of some of the highlights from his workout: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DSDl9JF5hvU&list=UUwtEu-BNlmexdrNrnFSY_LQ

He looked to be in GREAT shape, very quick and explosive. Correct me if I'm wrong, but he looks like he may have dropped a few pounds from his frame. He was also nailing stepback jumpers left and right (yes, the same stepback jumpers that caused Duke fans everywhere to groan in agony time and again last season). I'd be really worried that the Cavs might take him #1, except this happened:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gp7PX7hYUFQ&list=UUwtEu-BNlmexdrNrnFSY_LQ

Embiid looks like he's all the way back from the back issues, and he looked amazing in that video. Yes, these workouts are designed to make guys look really good, but he was hitting 15 footers with ease, nailing jump hooks, and using his ridiculous length to dunk balls from impossible distances. He looks every bit like the #1 pick to me. He's the most offensively skilled center to come out in AGES (counting Davis as a 4). The Cavs would be crazy to pass on such a rare talent. But then again, they are the Cavs.

I've been going back and forth on who I think the Cavs should take, but if the medical reports look good, they have to take Embiid.

Jabari definitely looks to be in great shape in that video.

[ice-9]

Jabari looked good but Oh my word that man (Embiid) is a beast!

What's eye-popping is Embiid's combination of explosiveness, footwork and size.

I'm sure it won't be as easy when he's bodied up by a legit NBA center, but it looks like he'll get there eventually. Wow.

[conmanlhughes]

Out of curiosity, who do consider the better player, Okafor or Embiid?

[kAzE]

Out of curiosity, who do consider the better player, Okafor or Embiid?

Okafor is much further along at this point from a skill standpoint, since he has played the game for much longer than embiid. Okafor will likely be a more impactful player next year in college than embiid was last year. Embiid is probably always going to be superior defensively because of his mobility and freakish athleticism, and I believe his offensive game will eventually catch up to his defense.

Short answer: okafor will be better in college, but embiid is the superior talent, with a much higher ceiling.

[Henderson]

I'm just waiting for the Blazers to trade up to take Embiid. Three years from now the story line on Joel Embiid will be that it's such a shame that so much talent went unfulfilled due to injuries. I've put this on my calendar for May 26, 2017. Let's talk then.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I'm just waiting for the Blazers to trade up to take Embiid. Three years from now the story line on Joel Embiid will be that it's such a shame that so much talent went unfulfilled due to injuries. I've put this on my calendar for May 26, 2017. Let's talk then.

I will happily take that bet if you want. Embiid isn't going to go all "Greg Oden". Plus, thinking he will just isn't morally right.

I hope Embiid succeeds. Seems like a nice, down to earth kinda guy. Wiggins? I don't care much for him at all.

I believe that the draft will go Embiid, Parker, and Wiggins. I hope it goes Embiid, Wiggins, and Parker (so Parker plays for a team with a future). Based on scouts, potential, and star power, the draft should go Embiid, Parker, and Wiggins.

[ChicagoCrazy84]

Watching Joel Embiid on there looks like me playing on a 6 foot rim and I'm 6'2. That guy just looks massive and everything is so effortless.

[elvis14]

Watching Joel Embiid on there looks like me playing on a 6 foot rim and I'm 6'2. That guy just looks massive and everything is so effortless.

The way Embliid was throwing down dunks in that video was incredible. He did make it look like the rim had been lowered. His jump shot looked pretty good too. He didn't look like a guy nursing a back injury. He looked to be fully recovered. It's a set up workout to make him look good and I have to say that he took full advantage.

[Henderson]

I will happily take that bet if you want. Embiid isn't going to go all "Greg Oden". Plus, thinking he will just isn't morally right.

I hope Embiid succeeds. Seems like a nice, down to earth kinda guy.

I share your hope that Embiid succeeds and succeeds big. My cynicism isn't based on a well-informed medical insight; it's just that I've been a Blazer fan so many years. Big guy who could be a franchise post player but with an injury history = "Danger Will Robinson. Who's the guy we're likely to regret passing on?"

[GGLC]

I share your hope that Embiid succeeds and succeeds big. My cynicism isn't based on a well-informed medical insight; it's just that I've been a Blazer fan so many years. Big guy who could be a franchise post player but with an injury history = "Danger Will Robinson. Who's the guy we're likely to regret passing on?"

Oh, I could not agree more.

Blazers fans unite!

[kAzE]

Pretty great piece on ESPN by Chad Ford (if you have insider): http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draft2014/story/_/id/10988987/andrew-wiggins-joel-embiid-jabari-parker-all-play-no-1-pick-nba-draft

Talks about his reactions to the workouts by Wiggins, Embiid, and Parker. Wiggins actually did a private workout for Ford as well as an interview, and he looked pretty impressive as well. Ford actually said he thought Jabari's workout was the most impressive, and that he went to hardest of any draft prospect this year in a workout. Part of me kind of wants to see him play with Kyrie . . . and that might happen.

Apparently, the Cavs had Jabari #1 on their board for the whole year, and they really want to make the playoffs this year, which means they might pass on Embiid because of his lack of readiness. Embiid is definitely has the most room for improvement, while Wiggins is ready from a defensive standpoint, and Parker on offense. Still, if they are dead set on making the playoffs, Parker is going to be the biggest help right away.

It's actually impossible to tell which one is the best pick. They are all so even in terms of pros and cons. They are thinking Jabari could play the 3 on offense, but guard 4s on defense, since he measured so big. He's 6'9" in shoes with almost 7 foot wingspan. I honestly always thought he would be a stretch 4 in the NBA anyways. 6'9" 240 guy with good handles and can shoot? That's a nightmare for any power forward to guard. Of course, he would get mauled by guys like Blake Griffin and LeBron on defense, but the only guy who can really check him is LeBron himself.

I give up trying to predict this. I have to admit that it would fun as hell to watch a Jabari/Kyrie team develop over time, though. I'm sure other Duke fans would enjoy watching that, too. PLUS, it would give Duke it's 4th overall #1 pick, which is pretty damn impressive.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Pretty great piece on ESPN by Chad Ford (if you have insider): http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draft2014/story/_/id/10988987/andrew-wiggins-joel-embiid-jabari-parker-all-play-no-1-pick-nba-draft

Talks about his reactions to the workouts by Wiggins, Embiid, and Parker. Wiggins actually did a private workout for Ford as well as an interview, and he looked pretty impressive as well. Ford actually said he thought Jabari's workout was the most impressive, and that he went to hardest of any draft prospect this year in a workout. Part of me kind of wants to see him play with Kyrie . . . and that might happen.

Apparently, the Cavs had Jabari #1 on their board for the whole year, and they really want to make the playoffs this year, which means they might pass on Embiid because of his lack of readiness. Embiid is definitely has the most room for improvement, while Wiggins is ready from a defensive standpoint, and Parker on offense. Still, if they are dead set on making the playoffs, Parker is going to be the biggest help right away.

It's actually impossible to tell which one is the best pick. They are all so even in terms of pros and cons. They are thinking Jabari could play the 3 on offense, but guard 4s on defense, since he measured so big. He's 6'9" in shoes with almost 7 foot wingspan. I honestly always thought he would be a stretch 4 in the NBA anyways. 6'9" 240 guy with good handles and can shoot? That's a nightmare for any power forward to guard. Of course, he would get mauled by guys like Blake Griffin and LeBron on defense, but the only guy who can really check him is LeBron himself.

I give up trying to predict this. I have to admit that it would fun as hell to watch a Jabari/Kyrie team develop over time, though. I'm sure other Duke fans would enjoy watching that, too. PLUS, it would give Duke it's 4th overall #1 pick, which is pretty damn impressive.

I really don't like the idea of Jabari and Kyrie together. They are both high volume players who need the ball in their hands to be the most effective. Furthermore, neither player can play defense. It's like in 2002 when Stephon Marbury teamed up with Amare Stoudemire - amazing offense that brought them to the playoffs but they got crushed in the first round due to a lack of everything else.

I will double over in laughter if the Cavs don't take Embiid. He is their biggest need right now: big man (4 or 5), plays exceptional D, can hit the mid-range, and filled with tons of potential. He may not make the biggest impact this year, but he's gonna be the best player of the draft (given that his back is okay. And that is certainly a risk right now).

[GGLC]

I really don't like the idea of Jabari and Kyrie together. They are both high volume players who need the ball in their hands to be the most effective. Furthermore, neither player can play defense. It's like in 2002 when Stephon Marbury teamed up with Amare Stoudemire - amazing offense that brought them to the playoffs but they got crushed in the first round due to a lack of everything else.

I will double over in laughter if the Cavs don't take Embiid. He is their biggest need right now: big man (4 or 5), plays exceptional D, can hit the mid-range, and filled with tons of potential. He may not make the biggest impact this year, but he's gonna be the best player of the draft (given that his back is okay. And that is certainly a risk right now).

I agree with all of this, including the unsuitability of Jabari and Kyrie together (though the Cavs obviously didn't care about that when they paired Kyrie and Waiters).

Assuming that Embiid clears the medicals, I think he absolutely has to be the no doubt easy head-and-shoulders #1 pick.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I agree with all of this, including the unsuitability of Jabari and Kyrie together (though the Cavs obviously didn't care about that when they paired Kyrie and Waiters).

Assuming that Embiid clears the medicals, I think he absolutely has to be the no doubt easy head-and-shoulders #1 pick.

During the draft, Kyrie and Waiters actually made a lot of sense: Waiters was seen as the yin to Kyrie's yang: he could defend bigger players, hit the 3pt shot when open, and even drive the lane. Unfortunately, Waiters has a ego as big as Kyrie. And Waiter's doesn't like playing D (maybe it's something in the water?).

Embiid can absolutely bring a new mentality to the defensiveless and teamless Cavs. Hopefully he does.

[jipops]

I really don't like the idea of Jabari and Kyrie together. They are both high volume players who need the ball in their hands to be the most effective. Furthermore, neither player can play defense. It's like in 2002 when Stephon Marbury teamed up with Amare Stoudemire - amazing offense that brought them to the playoffs but they got crushed in the first round due to a lack of everything else.

I will double over in laughter if the Cavs don't take Embiid. He is their biggest need right now: big man (4 or 5), plays exceptional D, can hit the mid-range, and filled with tons of potential. He may not make the biggest impact this year, but he's gonna be the best player of the draft (given that his back is okay. And that is certainly a risk right now).

I agree with this. Take Parker and sure the offense could put up more points but with that pitiful team defense the Cavs are a 1st round exit at best... at their peak. Take Embiid and even though he may present more of a risk he potentially offers something that few teams actually have, a big man who is a substantial threat on both ends of the floor. This gives the Cavs a much higher ceiling. I believe he is worth the risk.

As others have previously stated, I would much rather Jabari go to Philly where his defensive deficiencies can be masked by guys like MCW, Thaddeus Young, and potentially Nerlens Noel. He can be looked upon primarily as a scorer.

[MarkD83]

It is fun to read through all of the opinions about who will be taken where in the draft, but I am not convinced that NBA GMs think this deeply about this subject.

They are probably more worried about making room under the salary cap and free agent signings.

[kAzE]

It is fun to read through all of the opinions about who will be taken where in the draft, but I am not convinced that NBA GMs think this deeply about this subject.

They are probably more worried about making room under the salary cap and free agent signings.

When the success or failure of a top 3 draft pick can mean the difference between having a job and being fired, I think they take this stuff pretty seriously.

I agree that Embiid is by far the best choice long term for the Cavs, but I'm just pointing out that they are desperate to get in the playoffs now, and I wouldn't put it past Dan Gilbert to pressure the GM into taking Wiggins or Parker. Really though, all 3 are outstanding players who each have their own merits, and the Cavs win no matter what happens, because they were not supposed to have this pick.

[g-money]

During the draft, Kyrie and Waiters actually made a lot of sense: Waiters was seen as the yin to Kyrie's yang: he could defend bigger players, hit the 3pt shot when open, and even drive the lane. Unfortunately, Waiters has a ego as big as Kyrie. And Waiter's doesn't like playing D (maybe it's something in the water?).

I dunno, flyingdutchdevil, that sounds a lot like yin to yin to me. Two of those three traits were Kyrie's biggest strengths at the time. :)

Then there was the Bennett pick. And the whiff on Plumlee at #19. If I'm a Cavs fan, I'm terrified right now that they'll end up looking hard at Jabari, Embiid, and Wiggins and drafting none of the above.

Of course, they did get rid of Chris Grant. That could solve a lot of the problem. For Kyrie's sake, I hope it does.

[Henderson]

Then there was the Bennett pick. And the whiff on Plumlee at #19. If I'm a Cavs fan, I'm terrified right now that they'll end up looking hard at Jabari, Embiid, and Wiggins and drafting none of the above.


If the Cavs don't want Parker, Embiid or Wiggins, they'll trade down. And it wouldn't be a bad move. There are others in the 4-8 range that would be very good picks, and the Cavs could easily pick up a high 2015 1st rounder. Gordon, Vonleh or Randle + a 2015 1st rounder? This draft is pretty rich from 1-8, and it's not so top heavy that there's one player head and shoulders above all others.

[throatybeard]

A couple observations, which may be contested, but let me throw them out there.

1) The NBA Draft Lottery has utterly failed at its original aim, which was to semi-randomize the order of the non-playoff teams so that they would have a disincentive to tank...while still sort of weighting to the teams with the worst records. It now looks like a publicity stunt to get the league on TV in one more timeslot...except that too now looks silly because being on TV isn't as big a deal as it was in 1986. Just grow up and do your draft like everyone else, NBA. People are tanking to move their ping-pong ball's chance up one percent, anyway.

2) It's very interesting to me that the NBA tends to be a peripheral concern on this board, with many people talking about how unwatchable it is until at least the playoffs, if not the conference semifinals. (Yes, I'm aware that the first round was unusually good this year). The regular season is nearly a complete loss, and people follow Duke alumni mostly, but there's little day-to-day chatter.

But the second player-personnel is the NBA topic, everything springs to life. I don't know if that's because Duke is done by the point that it's relevant, or if it's because the regular-season product is so offensive to the retinas, or what, but people love them some draft and roster talk.

[CDu]

A couple observations, which may be contested, but let me throw them out there.

1) The NBA Draft Lottery has utterly failed at its original aim, which was to semi-randomize the order of the non-playoff teams so that they would have a disincentive to tank...while still sort of weighting to the teams with the worst records. It now looks like a publicity stunt to get the league on TV in one more timeslot...except that too now looks silly because being on TV isn't as big a deal as it was in 1986. Just grow up and do your draft like everyone else, NBA. People are tanking to move their ping-pong ball's chance up one percent, anyway.

2) It's very interesting to me that the NBA tends to be a peripheral concern on this board, with many people talking about how unwatchable it is until at least the playoffs, if not the conference semifinals. (Yes, I'm aware that the first round was unusually good this year). The regular season is nearly a complete loss, and people follow Duke alumni mostly, but there's little day-to-day chatter.

But the second player-personnel is the NBA topic, everything springs to life. I don't know if that's because Duke is done by the point that it's relevant, or if it's because the regular-season product is so offensive to the retinas, or what, but people love them some draft and roster talk.

1. Agree on the lottery.

2. I think it really comes down to lack of college ball. I don't think folks who are locked in to college ball only realize how good NBA basketball is, even in the regular season. But I don't blame them for failing to keep up with the NBA. It is tough to keep up with both levels throughout the season. And because the NBA season is so much longer (making each individual matchup less meaningful), it is easier to ignore it. Heck, I LOVE NBA basketball, and even I don't follow the regular season as much as I do the college bball regular season (due to time constraints). So I can't imagine the less avid NBA fan keeping up with the regular season.

But as soon as the college season ends, all bets are off. The NBA is just starting their playoffs. Perfect timing. So that's why you see an increase in the discussion of NBA stuff in April/May/June/July.

[Li_Duke]

1. Agree on the lottery.

2. I think it really comes down to lack of college ball. I don't think folks who are locked in to college ball only realize how good NBA basketball is, even in the regular season. But I don't blame them for failing to keep up with the NBA. It is tough to keep up with both levels throughout the season. And because the NBA season is so much longer (making each individual matchup less meaningful), it is easier to ignore it. Heck, I LOVE NBA basketball, and even I don't follow the regular season as much as I do the college bball regular season (due to time constraints). So I can't imagine the less avid NBA fan keeping up with the regular season.

But as soon as the college season ends, all bets are off. The NBA is just starting their playoffs. Perfect timing. So that's why you see an increase in the discussion of NBA stuff in April/May/June/July.

Agreed that it is probably about time constraints. Besides Duke, I actually follow the NBA more than I follow the rest of college basketball. But during the regular season, it's a big time commitment for me to just watch all the Duke games, and I never get around to watching a game from the NBA regular season. After the college basketball season, I get to occasionally watch a NBA playoff game. But following personnel changes, the draft, and so on... that's something I can do while waiting around at the doctor's office, while riding public transportation, etc... it's easier to keep on top of than the actual games.

[Billy Dat]

2) It's very interesting to me that the NBA tends to be a peripheral concern on this board, with many people talking about how unwatchable it is until at least the playoffs, if not the conference semifinals. (Yes, I'm aware that the first round was unusually good this year). The regular season is nearly a complete loss, and people follow Duke alumni mostly, but there's little day-to-day chatter. But the second player-personnel is the NBA topic, everything springs to life. I don't know if that's because Duke is done by the point that it's relevant, or if it's because the regular-season product is so offensive to the retinas, or what, but people love them some draft and roster talk.


2. I think it really comes down to lack of college ball. I don't think folks who are locked in to college ball only realize how good NBA basketball is, even in the regular season. But I don't blame them for failing to keep up with the NBA. It is tough to keep up with both levels throughout the season. And because the NBA season is so much longer (making each individual matchup less meaningful), it is easier to ignore it. Heck, I LOVE NBA basketball, and even I don't follow the regular season as much as I do the college bball regular season (due to time constraints). So I can't imagine the less avid NBA fan keeping up with the regular season. But as soon as the college season ends, all bets are off. The NBA is just starting their playoffs. Perfect timing. So that's why you see an increase in the discussion of NBA stuff in April/May/June/July.

This is an interesting phenomenon. There are definitely some distinct groups that fans, not just DBR fans, fall into.

-People who are hoops junkies, no matter the level
I am in this camp. I love college basketball the most because I am most passionate about Duke and therefore, like CDu,follow it closest. But, I watch tons of NBA and have a beloved franchise that I have rooted for my whole life - the Knicks. But, I also love watching high school basketball, and international basketball. I love watching 4th grade basketball. I thoroughly enjoyed watching a 7th grade girls game while waiting for my son to finish practice one day. The sounds of the gym, the coaching styles, the effort - I love it all.

-People who only like college ball
Presumably because they have a favorite team that they follow, but also because they don't like the commercial nature of pro ball and its too long regular season. The want the band box gyms, the pep bands, the cheerleaders and March Madness. A lot of DBR falls into this category, I think.

-People who only like pro ball
This is the contingent that thinks the pro product is so far advanced that everything else is boring and unwatchable. Bill Simmons is pretty much the poster boy for this kind of fan p- he only watches college to scout future pro players - but he also watches the NCAA Tournament.

-People who only like Duke College Basketball
I think a lot of DBR people fall into this category. Outside of Duke, they watch little basketball and don't know much about the history of any other program outside of the context to its association with Duke. Once Duke players go to the NBA, they are never watched again. Had it not been for Duke, they may never watch basketball at all.

It actually surprises me the most that more DBR folks don't follow our Duke guys in the NBA. Shane Battier is as beloved a player that has ever been celebrated on these boards. He's played a ton of games in the NBA over the past 13 years and has been really fun to watch. The final 2-9 games of his entire career are upon us, and that might only represent 30-135 minutes he has left as a player, and very few of us are aware of that fact.

Still, though, I do love NBA chatter on DBR and am grateful for the dedicated group that contributes to the threads. There are luckily enough that we don't wind up just talking to ourselves but its a tight enough group that there is a nice familiarity too.

[flyingdutchdevil]

...Bucks :( http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draft/mock/?season=2014&version=3&sourceId=3

It's pretty much a given that Embiid is going 1. Actually, I haven't seen a mock or any type of analysis to offer the contrary.

The question is who goes second or third. Goodman thinks Parker will go third because of the following (it's free, don't worry DBR):


Analysis: The Bucks will have a choice between the ultra-athletic Wiggins and the skilled Parker if Embiid is off the board. That will be an agonizing decision for GM John Hammond, who will balance taking the more-NBA ready Parker and Wiggins, who appears to have the higher upside. Hammond can ill afford to miss here, and that will be why he ultimately goes with Parker.

[sagegrouse]

...Bucks :( http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draft/mock/?season=2014&version=3&sourceId=3

It's pretty much a given that Embiid is going 1. Actually, I haven't seen a mock or any type of analysis to offer the contrary.

The question is who goes second or third. Goodman thinks Parker will go third because of the following (it's free, don't worry DBR):

If Jabari doesn't go #1 or #2, some GM will regret it. You got a 19YO with incredible skills and a mind for the game that hearkens to Larry Bird. And he isn't going to get a lot better? Sounds like Dan Marino thinking to me.

Kindly, Sage
'Dan Marino was the highly hyped Miami QB who slipped to #27 in the draft because he was "over-scouted." Scouts and GMs looked long and hard and kept finding problems in his passing form that were irrelevant to his fabulous and immediate success in the NFL. He set NFL passing records that stood for years'

[superdave]

If Jabari doesn't go #1 or #2, some GM will regret it. You got a 19YO with incredible skills and a mind for the game that hearkens to Larry Bird. And he isn't going to get a lot better? Sounds like Dan Marino thinking to me.

Kindly, Sage
'Dan Marino was the highly hyped Miami QB who slipped to #27 in the draft because he was "over-scouted." Scouts and GMs looked long and hard and kept finding problems in his passing form that were irrelevant to his fabulous and immediate success in the NFL. He set NFL passing records that stood for years'

You may be able to say the same thing about Wiggins and Embiid. You want to miss out on TMac part II? You want to miss out on the next Tim Duncan? What if Exum turns into a young Penny Hardaway? There's pros and cons to each guy. Maybe the scouts would make better decisions with another season of college ball for each guy....

[ncexnyc]

As we get closer to the NBA Draft, it’s inevitable that we get to read a number of lists telling us who the biggest draft busts in NBA history are. Here are just two that I looked at today. The one from Bleacher Reports is interesting as it actually is based on some analytical work as opposed to just someone’s opinion. Unfortunately, based on their formula several former Duke players make their list.

Nice to see Sam Bowie is no longer listed as the biggest bust, at least on the Fox list. A class individual who was good enough to make the All-Rookie team after his first season, but had his career derailed by some serious leg injuries. People seem to forget Portland would have taken Hakeem had they won the coin toss and that they had a future HOF’er in Drexler already on their roster and just needed a center to complete their team, which is why they passed on MJ.

http://msn.foxsports.com/nba/lists/biggest-draft-busts-kwame-brown-michael-olowokandi-sam-bowie-darko-milicic-062512#photo-title=Kwame+Brown&photo=31139457

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1676424-ranking-worst-nba-draft-busts-of-past-25-years#articles/1676424-ranking-worst-nba-draft-busts-of-past-25-years

[sagegrouse]

Originally Posted by sagegrouse View Post
If Jabari doesn't go #1 or #2, some GM will regret it. You got a 19YO with incredible skills and a mind for the game that hearkens to Larry Bird. And he isn't going to get a lot better? Sounds like Dan Marino thinking to me.



You may be able to say the same thing about Wiggins and Embiid. You want to miss out on TMac part II? You want to miss out on the next Tim Duncan? What if Exum turns into a young Penny Hardaway? There's pros and cons to each guy. Maybe the scouts would make better decisions with another season of college ball for each guy....

Mark my words, young man, mar-r-r-r-k-k-k my words! Jabari is gonna be a huge stars in the pros! And, if his shot continues to improve, he could become an all-time great.

But we'll know soon enough.

[Class of '94]

You may be able to say the same thing about Wiggins and Embiid. You want to miss out on TMac part II? You want to miss out on the next Tim Duncan? What if Exum turns into a young Penny Hardaway? There's pros and cons to each guy. Maybe the scouts would make better decisions with another season of college ball for each guy....

This is something I've been thinking about lately. I do think Wiggins compares favorably to a young TMAC; and I've been asking myself would I rather have a player with that could eventually explode and shine bright for few seasons or have a player with a longer career (with lower stats) like a Battier. I know I'm biased but I'd take Battier's career over TMAC's. I remember reading an article on espn that Russillo interviewing scouts and one comparing Jabari to Shane (in terms of a floor level as a potential NBA player) and felt that Jabari was more skilled and a better player than Shane. I don't think it's been said here yet but I along with Carmelo, I think Jabari could be considered a more athletic and skilled version of Glenn Robinson or Shareef Abdur-Raheem (star players in the mid 90s to early 2000s who both had good careers overall); and I would take a player that is very skilled, but less athletic (yet still athletic enough) over the ultra-athletic player with significantly less skill (i.e., Jabari over Wiggins). The reason being is that for players like Jabari, Melo, and even Kevin Durant, their effectiveness is not predicated upon their athletic ability but rather their immense basketball players. IMO, (and I know I haven't done the research to confirm this) I believe players like these tend to have longer,more effective careers overall than players whose games are built around their athleticism because once those players who rely so much on their athleticism as younger players are older and their physical/athletic skills are diminished, those players are far less effective. I'm not saying Wiggins can't adapt and really develop his skills (as some GMs and scouts believe he can and will do); but there is not guarantee that he will (and imo I haven't seen enough this past season watching him to feel that he will work on and develop his game to the skill-set level of Jabari Parker).

While there are always exceptions, players whose game was built on their athleticism and speed like Iverson, Damon Stoudemire and Amare Stoudemire were never the same players once their physical ability went into decline. If Wiggins had more of a balance in his athletic/physical and basketball skills, I would feel differently about him. Again, these are just my thoughts and opinions.

[CDu]

This is something I've been thinking about lately. I do think Wiggins compares favorably to a young TMAC; and I've been asking myself would I rather have a player with that could eventually explode and shine bright for few seasons or have a player with a longer career (with lower stats) like a Battier. I know I'm biased but I'd take Battier's career over TMAC's. I remember reading an article on espn that Russillo interviewing scouts and one comparing Jabari to Shane (in terms of a floor level as a potential NBA player) and felt that Jabari was more skilled and a better player than Shane. I don't think it's been said here yet but I along with Carmelo, I think Jabari could be considered a more athletic and skilled version of Glenn Robinson or Shareef Abdur-Raheem (star players in the mid 90s to early 2000s who both had good careers overall); and I would take a player that is very skilled, but less athletic (yet still athletic enough) over the ultra-athletic player with significantly less skill (i.e., Jabari over Wiggins). The reason being is that for players like Jabari, Melo, and even Kevin Durant, their effectiveness is not predicated upon their athletic ability but rather their immense basketball players. IMO, (and I know I haven't done the research to confirm this) I believe players like these tend to have longer,more effective careers overall than players whose games are built around their athleticism because once those players who rely so much on their athleticism as younger players are older and their physical/athletic skills are diminished, those players are far less effective. I'm not saying Wiggins can't adapt and really develop his skills (as some GMs and scouts believe he can and will do); but there is not guarantee that he will (and imo I haven't seen enough this past season watching him to feel that he will work on and develop his game to the skill-set level of Jabari Parker).

While there are always exceptions, players whose game was built on their athleticism and speed like Iverson, Damon Stoudemire and Amare Stoudemire were never the same players once their physical ability went into decline. If Wiggins had more of a balance in his athletic/physical and basketball skills, I would feel differently about him. Again, these are just my thoughts and opinions.

I am not sure why TMac was your point of reference. He played more years (15 vs 14) and nearly as many games (938 vs 977) as Battier. And he averaged over 15ppg for 10 seasons. Had Battier not jumped on the Heat bandwagon at the right time, I don't think there would be any comparison between the two players' careers.

[Dukehky]

I am not sure why TMac was your point of reference. He played more years (15 vs 14) and nearly as many games (938 vs 977) as Battier. And he averaged over 15ppg for 10 seasons. Had Battier not jumped on the Heat bandwagon at the right time, I don't think there would be any comparison between the two players' careers.

McGrady is a borderline hall of fame guy, and Battier is somebody, who to NBA fans, probably won't be remembered after he retires. McGrady was also the best player on most of the teams he was on, except with Carter for Toronto. He was better than Yao and better than everyone on the Magic when he played there. There is no comparison between these two players, TMAC is one of the more dynamic offensive players since MJ. I can't believe this is even being argued. I know TMAC never got a team out of the first round, but a team with Battier as its best player wouldn't have gotten out of the lottery. Plus he had sweet shoes.

Note: I love Shane, and he was an absolute Star in college, but he would be the first to tell you that he is a rock solid role player in the NBA and his best attribute is being a great teammate.



Back on topic, the Bucks or Philly would be ecstatic to get a TMAC player with Wiggins, it won't happen because I think he's going to be a slightly better MKG. Embiid is going 1 and should go 1 if his back isn't destroyed. You can't teach 7'1 with athleticism, quickness, and a feel for the game. That doesn't come around often.

[Kedsy]

I know I'm biased but I'd take Battier's career over TMAC's. I remember reading an article on espn that Russillo interviewing scouts and one comparing Jabari to Shane (in terms of a floor level as a potential NBA player) and felt that Jabari was more skilled and a better player than Shane.

Jabari may compare reasonably well to Carmelo (although one could argue that Carmelo hasn't done so well if your goal is to win playoff games), but comparing Jabari to Shane Battier is apples to oranges. Shane played in the NBA because he's a basketball genius and a great defensive player. How can you compare Jabari to that? They're totally different animals.

And if Wiggins is TMac, then whoever drafts him will be very, very happy. Especially since TMac's career was derailed by injuries and, though I guess you never know, there's no reason to believe that will happen to Wiggins.

[Trey21]

I wish people would stop comparing Wiggins to McGrady. I don't ever see Wiggins developing into the type of scorer that T-Mac was. Dude was among the top 5-10 players in the league for a good 5 years, and was one of the best scorers post 2000. There was a period of time where people argued between T-Mac and Kobe, and honestly it was a pretty tough debate. Guy had no help and slowly broke down over time but he raised his game in the playoffs and had a great PER for a nice period of time.

Yes, Wiggins sort of reminds me of a young T-Mac when he was with the Raptors but I think Wiggins (and his evolution as a player) is and will be more comparable to Paul George. He should be able to defend at a high level immediately but it will take him a few years to develop into a scorer. Even when his does I doubt he'll reach the highs that McGrady did in his prime.

[MarkD83]

When the success or failure of a top 3 draft pick can mean the difference between having a job and being fired, I think they take this stuff pretty seriously.

No I think the success or failure of the NBA team they manage is the difference between having a job and getting fired. If the Cavaliers, Sixers or Buck, could trade away their top pick and get Kevin Love in a trade and sign deal, that may be more appealing than any of the players in the draft. What if LeBron wanted to go back to Cleveland and they way to do that was give away the top pick. Do you take Parker or Lebron? All hypothetical but my guess is the GMs already know which player they are going to pick and the prudent ones would be shopping around their picks to see if a trade or a free agent would be better to have than one of the top three college players.

[yancem]

As we get closer to the NBA Draft, it’s inevitable that we get to read a number of lists telling us who the biggest draft busts in NBA history are. Here are just two that I looked at today. The one from Bleacher Reports is interesting as it actually is based on some analytical work as opposed to just someone’s opinion. Unfortunately, based on their formula several former Duke players make their list.

Nice to see Sam Bowie is no longer listed as the biggest bust, at least on the Fox list. A class individual who was good enough to make the All-Rookie team after his first season, but had his career derailed by some serious leg injuries. People seem to forget Portland would have taken Hakeem had they won the coin toss and that they had a future HOF’er in Drexler already on their roster and just needed a center to complete their team, which is why they passed on MJ.

http://msn.foxsports.com/nba/lists/biggest-draft-busts-kwame-brown-michael-olowokandi-sam-bowie-darko-milicic-062512#photo-title=Kwame+Brown&photo=31139457

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1676424-ranking-worst-nba-draft-busts-of-past-25-years#articles/1676424-ranking-worst-nba-draft-busts-of-past-25-years

So for the bleacher report list Shelden Williams, William Avery, Danny Ferry and several other Duke players that got injured but not Ed Davis, Marvin Williams, Montross, McCants, Sean May, Forte or anyone else from unc that I'm currently forgetting?? Poor Langdon is the lone Duke lottery pick that didn't stick in the league not to make the list!

[Class of '94]

I'll derail this thread one last time in regards to TMAC and Battier comparisons. My main point was that I would draft Jabari over Wiggins because of Jabari's skillset and that it's not based solely on his athleticism and physical talent while I believe Wiggins' (right now at least) best attributes are his physical abilities. I believe offensively Jabari is going to be fine in the NBA and will only get better and because his skills are dependent on his physical athleticism, I think Jabari is going to have a long and prosperous pro-career. And while many scouts would argue that Wiggins can develop the basketball skills that Jabari has, I don't think there is a guarantee it will happen; and again I would choose Jabari because of that.

I mentioned the Jabari-Battier comparison because an NBA scout compared jabari to Shane by saying that at worst (i.e. Jabari's floor, and not his ceiling) Jabari would at least be as good Shane (which I don't think it's a bad thing btw); but that same scout added that he thought Jabari was more talented than Shane. For the record, I believe Jabari is a more gifted player than Shane and his ceiling is potentially much higher than Shane's was. And while Shane and TMAC may have been in the league about the same time, I'd argue that Shane had a more consistent impact in the league for longer because TMAC wasn't TMAC until he went to Orlando after years of playing in Toronto; and then TMAC wasn't as impactful when he after the 2008 season with Houston (albeit due to injuries); and even went to China for a stint while Shane played his whole career in the NBA.

I brought McGrady into this discussion as an example of a player that was a shadow of himself when his physical abilities were limited due to injuries and age; and I can see a player like Melo (or Jabari for that matter) not having the same issue because his game is predicated on physically being so dominant. Teams looking at whether to draft Wiggins or Parker may want to consider those factors in their evaluations of who to draft.

Now I'm not saying TMAC wasn't a great player at his peak or that teams wouldn't be happy if Wiggins becomes another TMAC that played in Orlando; but again it is not certain he will evolve into that player and more likely he will be more like the TMAC that played for the Toronto Raptors. If Embid goes to Cleveland as the No. 1 pick, I believe the Bucks should pick Jabari because he's ready to contribute now offensively and less what if scenarios surrounding him compared to Wiggins imo.

[superdave]

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/nba/news/20140604/nba-mock-draft-joel-embiid-andrew-wiggins-dante-exum/#all

[ncexnyc]

Interesting to see that Jabari's conditioning or lack of it is still popping up.

He got a bit of a pass from us due to the injury he had during his senior year in high school. I would have thought he be in better shape for the camps than what he's shown. I hope this doesn't cost him a draft position or two.

[sagegrouse]

Interesting to see that Jabari's conditioning or lack of it is still popping up.

He got a bit of a pass from us due to the injury he had during his senior year in high school. I would have thought he be in better shape for the camps than what he's shown. I hope this doesn't cost him a draft position or two.

As I read the quote, the concern was lack of muscular definition, not lack of wind.

[mr. synellinden]

Just looking at SI's mock, I think Young would be the steal of the draft at 18. I thought he was Kentucky's best player in the tournament.

I certainly would prefer him to Gary Harris or Stauskas.

I also like Kyle Anderson at 27.

[ncexnyc]

As I read the quote, the concern was lack of muscular definition, not lack of wind.
I don't disagree with that, however he did look a tad soft and wasn't anywhere near as cut and chiseled as Semi or the incoming Mr. Obi. I realize he posted some excellent scoring and rebounding stats, so obviously his appearence didn't have a bearing on his play. I just thought he would have spent more time sculpting his body since it's something he had to have known the scouts were talking about.

[Henderson]

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/nba/news/20140604/nba-mock-draft-joel-embiid-andrew-wiggins-dante-exum/#all

Interesting that SI has Rodney going #14 to the Suns. He was one of 6 players the Suns worked out this past week (http://valleyofthesuns.com/2014/06/02/suns-gary-harris-zach-lavine-james-young-rodney-hood/). He may not be available that deep. The Nuggets, who hold the 11th pick, hosted him for a private workout yesterday (http://milehighsports.com/2014/06/03/denver-nuggets-host-dukes-rodney-hood-for-private-workout/).

[JasonEvans]

I also like Kyle Anderson at 27.

Agreed... that kid knows the game. I think his length will offset the fact that he is not an elite athlete. He's going to be a good NBA player.

-Jason "I don't get the love for Marcus Smart... I don't think he'll ever be close to an all-star and there are plenty of guys with all-star potential in this lottery" Evans

[superdave]

Agreed... that kid knows the game. I think his length will offset the fact that he is not an elite athlete. He's going to be a good NBA player.

-Jason "I don't get the love for Marcus Smart... I don't think he'll ever be close to an all-star and there are plenty of guys with all-star potential in this lottery" Evans

Smart is 6'4'' and 220. So he is a bigger guard. His steal numbers are 2.9 and 3.0 per game for his two college seasons. Steal % is one of the advanced metrics go-to stats for how a colleg player's game will translate into the NBA. Supposedly Smart grades out as the #2 guy in the class in advanced metrics (I know I read that somewhere....and maybe Jabari was #1).

Smart's defense and leadership are his positives, but his 3-point shooting is a negative. He shot below 30% in college. But that is something he can improve at.

Everything I've read is that his workouts are great and some teams really love him. Exum should go ahead of him, but Smart seems to be the consensus #2 pg, and a top 10 pick if not a little better.

[Billy Dat]

I don't disagree with that, however he did look a tad soft and wasn't anywhere near as cut and chiseled as Semi or the incoming Mr. Obi. I realize he posted some excellent scoring and rebounding stats, so obviously his appearence didn't have a bearing on his play. I just thought he would have spent more time sculpting his body since it's something he had to have known the scouts were talking about.

What I find interesting is that the fact that Jabari is a bit soft doesn't somehow increase his "upside". Another young Duke big man whose conditioning was questioned, Elton, completely transformed his physique within a few years and it raised his game to All Star/Team USA heights. Maybe there is a track record of baby fat to chubby guys staying that way or getting worse? Hot Plate Williams, Tractor Traylor and Mike Sweetney come to mind, but there have to be as many who went the other way, like Elton.

[flyingdutchdevil]

What I find interesting is that the fact that Jabari is a bit soft doesn't somehow increase his "upside". Another young Duke big man whose conditioning was questioned, Elton, completely transformed his physique within a few years and it raised his game to All Star/Team USA heights. Maybe there is a track record of baby fat to chubby guys staying that way or getting worse? Hot Plate Williams, Tractor Traylor and Mike Sweetney come to mind, but there have to be as many who went the other way, like Elton.

Carmelo is the best comparison. Carmelo had baby fat in college and even in his first few years in the league. But he cut down on that fat. Sure, his body is never going to Lebron's or Wiggins, but 99% of NBA stars are.

[kAzE]

Just looking at SI's mock, I think Young would be the steal of the draft at 18. I thought he was Kentucky's best player in the tournament.

I certainly would prefer him to Gary Harris or Stauskas.

I also like Kyle Anderson at 27.

I'd take Stauskas over Harris or Young. That kid is gonna be a really good pro, 6'7" with good athleticism, skills to play either guard position, and he's the best shooter of the 3 by far. Harris is very close, because he's a better defender, but give me the versatility and deep and consistent stroke of Stauskas. Guy almost single handedly kept Michigan in the conversation as a title contender all year. In my opinion, neither Young nor Harris showed the type of consistent scoring instinct as Stauskas last year. If I was a NBA GM, I'd take him as early as #10.

[gwlaw99]

What I find interesting is that the fact that Jabari is a bit soft doesn't somehow increase his "upside". Another young Duke big man whose conditioning was questioned, Elton, completely transformed his physique within a few years and it raised his game to All Star/Team USA heights. Maybe there is a track record of baby fat to chubby guys staying that way or getting worse? Hot Plate Williams, Tractor Traylor and Mike Sweetney come to mind, but there have to be as many who went the other way, like Elton.

Look at JJ as well. Is there any doubt that NBA strength coaches will transform him in a year or 2? NBA teams should be thinking "wow, if he can do all this before we get him to our strength trainer..."

[Kedsy]

Look at JJ as well. Is there any doubt that NBA strength coaches will transform him in a year or 2? NBA teams should be thinking "wow, if he can do all this before we get him to our strength trainer..."

Or they might be wondering whether there's some character flaw or lack of work ethic that has kept him from already getting there on his own (or with his college strength trainers). I'm not suggesting that reasoning is necessarily valid in Jabari's case, but it's not an entirely unfair question.

[Des Esseintes]

Or they might be wondering whether there's some character flaw or lack of work ethic that has kept him from already getting there on his own (or with his college strength trainers). I'm not suggesting that reasoning is necessarily valid in Jabari's case, but it's not an entirely unfair question.

Yeah, everyone wants to paint talent evaluators as illogical or losing the forest for the trees, but this is their *job*, man. They're better at it than we are, and if a concern of theirs sounds bizarre, we are better served asking if there is a flaw in our own understanding before we dismiss theirs. These guys are far from infallible, but they represent the best that intelligence can bring to the project at this point in time.

[gwlaw99]

Or they might be wondering whether there's some character flaw or lack of work ethic that has kept him from already getting there on his own (or with his college strength trainers). I'm not suggesting that reasoning is necessarily valid in Jabari's case, but it's not an entirely unfair question.

One call to Coach K will be will settle that and I doubt anyone will think he has a character flaw. He had one summer of strength training in college after being out of shape from an injury.

[kAzE]

Or they might be wondering whether there's some character flaw or lack of work ethic that has kept him from already getting there on his own (or with his college strength trainers). I'm not suggesting that reasoning is necessarily valid in Jabari's case, but it's not an entirely unfair question.

Knowing what I know about Jabari, (more than most, but probably not NBA GM-level of knowledge) I highly doubt that it's because of some sort of character flaw or lack of work ethic. I think his body's metabolism is just not that great. He COULD be stuffing his face with Jabari bars when no one's looking, but as a professional, I just don't think he'd be dumb enough to do that.

Also, his body has a ton of room for improvement, and I think he's always been underrated as an athlete. Just because he's in the same class as Wiggins and Embiid doesn't mean he's an inferior athlete. Yes, those guys are aliens when it comes to athleticism, but Jabari has a 7 foot wingspan too, and he consistently made dunks every game last year, where I was like, DAMN, how did he do that? I agree that his perceived lack of conditioning should be a PLUS, because he definitely has room for improvement on that front, and it would probably help him get much better defensively, too.

[Billy Dat]

Knowing what I know about Jabari, (more than most, but probably not NBA GM-level of knowledge) I highly doubt that it's because of some sort of character flaw or lack of work ethic. I think his body's metabolism is just not that great. He COULD be stuffing his face with Jabari bars when no one's looking, but as a professional, I just don't think he'd be dumb enough to do that.

Also, his body has a ton of room for improvement, and I think he's always been underrated as an athlete. Just because he's in the same class as Wiggins and Embiid doesn't mean he's an inferior athlete. Yes, those guys are aliens when it comes to athleticism, but Jabari has a 7 foot wingspan too, and he consistently made dunks every game last year, where I was like, DAMN, how did he do that? I agree that his perceived lack of conditioning should be a PLUS, because he definitely has room for improvement on that front, and it would probably help him get much better defensively, too.

This is kind of the reason for my original point. He lost a chunk of time with his injury in high school and kind of fell behind and hasn't fully caught up. I respect what Des is saying, which is why I am interested in the correlation between chubby college kid and chubby pro - it must be a pretty strong correlation for it to keep coming up. It just seems to me that it would be harder to teach Wiggins, or an upside guy like Zach Lavine, the things that come naturally to Jabari on offense than it would for Jabari to get busy with a trainer and dietitian and become a ripped specimen. I am splitting hairs with this line of questioning as the kid is going to be a top 3 pick, but it is interesting how upside gets defined sometimes.

[gwlaw99]

He COULD be stuffing his face with Jabari bars

Best post on the thread.

[kAzE]

This is kind of the reason for my original point. He lost a chunk of time with his injury in high school and kind of fell behind and hasn't fully caught up. I respect what Des is saying, which is why I am interested in the correlation between chubby college kid and chubby pro - it must be a pretty strong correlation for it to keep coming up. It just seems to me that it would be harder to teach Wiggins, or an upside guy like Zach Lavine, the things that come naturally to Jabari on offense than it would for Jabari to get busy with a trainer and dietitian and become a ripped specimen. I am splitting hairs with this line of questioning as the kid is going to be a top 3 pick, but it is interesting how upside gets defined sometimes.

Exactly, I agree, and it's not like there aren't successful guys who came out of college with Jabari's physical situation. I don't remember Melo or Zach Randolph looking like Mr. Universe coming in to the league. Lots of skills can be taught, but conditioning is something that almost everyone can do given the time and motivation. Jabari's skill level is already NBA level, so anything physical that can be improved upon will only make him better.

[sagegrouse]

Or they might be wondering whether there's some character flaw or lack of work ethic that has kept him from already getting there on his own (or with his college strength trainers). I'm not suggesting that reasoning is necessarily valid in Jabari's case, but it's not an entirely unfair question.

I have two explanations: (1) disinformation by the teams prior to the draft; (2) scouts and GMs are having a "Marino Moment:" finding and escalating small flaws into something momentous -- when they aren't at all. Jabari is be a solid citizen and acts older than his 19 years and way, way older than young Sage Grouse acted at 19. Given his skill set -- advanced even for the NBA -- it's hard to believe that he has a problem with "work ethic."

There are many NBA legends who weren't impressive in physique. I don't have the time for the research, but how about Oscar, Bird, West, Moses Malone, Bill Walton (absolutely great while healthy), Isiah, Sir Charles, Pistol Pete, etc.?

[Class of '94]

I have two explanations: (1) disinformation by the teams prior to the draft; (2) scouts and GMs are having a "Marino Moment:" finding and escalating small flaws into something momentous -- when they aren't at all. Jabari is be a solid citizen and acts older than his 19 years and way, way older than young Sage Grouse acted at 19. Given his skill set -- advanced even for the NBA -- it's hard to believe that he has a problem with "work ethic."

There are many NBA legends who weren't impressive in physique. I don't have the time for the research, but how about Oscar, Bird, West, Moses Malone, Bill Walton (absolutely great while healthy), Isiah, Sir Charles, Pistol Pete, etc.?

Don't forget Karl Malone, who I think is a perfect example of coming into the league chubby and then worked on his body to transform it into a very toned and chiseled physique.

[ncexnyc]

4148
Not sure if I'd call this chubby.

When all is said and done, Jabari will be getting a very nice payday. I'm also certain that if he stays healthy he'll have himself a long and productive career and that any team he plays for will be happy he was a part of their organization, just as we are happy to say he was a part of the Duke family.

[awhom111]

The Eurocamp is this weekend and Trajan Langdon is going to be one of the coaches.

[Richard Berg]

I am interested in the correlation between chubby college kid and chubby pro - it must be a pretty strong correlation for it to keep coming up.
Call it the Sean May Effect.

[Edouble]

Call it the Sean May Effect.

They were talking "chubby", not "State Fair Champion".

[Class of '94]

4148
Not sure if I'd call this chubby.

When all is said and done, Jabari will be getting a very nice payday. I'm also certain that if he stays healthy he'll have himself a long and productive career and that any team he plays for will be happy he was a part of their organization, just as we are happy to say he was a part of the Duke family.
I stand corrected. I never considered Karl as chubby as say Barkley; but I have seen other pictures from his younger days in the league where he wasn't as toned or cut as pictures of him in his later years in the league. Even in the picture you have, Karl's face was fuller compared to pictures in later years. That being said, as many have pointed out, there are many examples of players who have worked on improving their bodies and conditioning over the course of their NBA careers. And I believe Jabari will be another player that will do the same thing.

[Class of '94]

I stand corrected. I never considered Karl as chubby as say Barkley; but I have seen other pictures from his younger days in the league where he wasn't as toned or cut as pictures of him in his later years in the league. Even in the picture you have, Karl's face was fuller compared to pictures in later years. That being said, as many have pointed out, there are many examples of players who have worked on improving their bodies and conditioning over the course of their NBA careers. And I believe Jabari will be another player that will do the same thing.
Who knows, maybe Jabari will end up looking like this if he works hard enough on his body. http://www.google.com/search?q=karl+malone+pics&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&ei=TbqRU8rjGcKCqgbk9YLICA&ved=0CB8QsAQ&biw=1024&bih=729#facrc=_&imgdii=_&imgrc=o205yaE7oBKajM%253A%3BzgiL-gRuHVFdzM%3Bhttp%253A%252F%252Fwww.bballchannel.fr %252Fwp-content%252Fuploads%252F2012%252F07%252FKarl-Malone2.jpg%3Bhttp%253A%252F%252Fwww.bballchannel. fr%252F2012%252F07%252Fhbd-karl-malone%252F%3B748%3B684 . Although to play the 3, maybe just as toned but not as big. :o

[flyingdutchdevil]

Who knows, maybe Jabari will end up looking like this if he works hard enough on his body. http://www.google.com/search?q=karl+malone+pics&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&ei=TbqRU8rjGcKCqgbk9YLICA&ved=0CB8QsAQ&biw=1024&bih=729#facrc=_&imgdii=_&imgrc=o205yaE7oBKajM%253A%3BzgiL-gRuHVFdzM%3Bhttp%253A%252F%252Fwww.bballchannel.fr %252Fwp-content%252Fuploads%252F2012%252F07%252FKarl-Malone2.jpg%3Bhttp%253A%252F%252Fwww.bballchannel. fr%252F2012%252F07%252Fhbd-karl-malone%252F%3B748%3B684 . Although to play the 3, maybe just as toned but not as big. :o

Comparing Jabari to Malone is like comparing Kevin Durant's body to Lebron James's body; sure, they play the same position for the most part, but their bodies are about as similar to each other as Andre the Giant and Reese Witherspoon.

Also, you can't compare anyone in the NBA to Karl Malone, including our very own Carlos Boozer. Malone has just a beast who probably eats wrecking balls for breakfast.

[CDu]

Comparing Jabari to Malone is like comparing Kevin Durant's body to Lebron James's body; sure, they play the same position for the most part, but their bodies are about as similar to each other as Andre the Giant and Reese Witherspoon.

Also, you can't compare anyone in the NBA to Karl Malone, including our very own Carlos Boozer. Malone has just a beast who probably eats wrecking balls for breakfast.

Right. It is sort of like comparing any short, stout, PF to Charles Barkley. Or any 6'6", 200-210lb SG to Michael Jordan. Some guys are just off the charts.

[Richard Berg]

Let's not forget the impact of coaching & mentorship within a team. Would journalists be salivating over Kawhi Leonard's ceiling if he'd been drafted by the Knicks?

[Class of '94]

Comparing Jabari to Malone is like comparing Kevin Durant's body to Lebron James's body; sure, they play the same position for the most part, but their bodies are about as similar to each other as Andre the Giant and Reese Witherspoon.

Also, you can't compare anyone in the NBA to Karl Malone, including our very own Carlos Boozer. Malone has just a beast who probably eats wrecking balls for breakfast.
Time out......The Malone-Jabari comparison was meant more in jest (hence the smiley face) than being serious. I apologize if it came across otherwise. My overall point is that Jabari can mold his body into a more toned and cut version of what he has. That's all. There have been plenty of examples of players getting the bodies into better shape; and I believe Jabari will be another example as well. FWIW, I'm not saying he will look like Malone, a toned Barkley, Lebron or anyone else. Everyone's body type is different; but he will have the opportunity to add more tone to his body; and who knows, he may end up somewhere between Melo and JJ. We'll just have to wait and see.

[Class of '94]

Right. It is sort of like comparing any short, stout, PF to Charles Barkley. Or any 6'6", 200-210lb SG to Michael Jordan. Some guys are just off the charts.

I agree. Like I said in my previous post, my direct comment in comparing Jabari's body to Malone was meant more in jest than anything else. When I look at Jabari's body, I think he has huge potential to transform his body into a more toned and chiseled version of what he has now. I'm not saying he'll look like Lebron (nobody looks like Lebron and has his combination size, athleticism, speed and power); but I do think if he works at it, he could end up being more toned than Melo.

And as another poster noted, I think NBA teams should take that in consideration in terms of whether or not to draft Jabari. I think it's easier to lose weight and be more toned than to develop an NBA level-offensive skill set. And Jabari doesn't have to be on the same athletic level as Wiggins to be a great NBA player. If he loses 10-15 lbs and gets down to around 225-230 and improves his conditioning, it will make him a more explosive athlete (and personally I already think he is a good athlete now and will only be better by losing a little more weight strengthening his body) and I think he will have the ability to guard NBA 3s and occasional move over to guard 4s in certain situations.

[superdave]

http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/50741/nba-insider-chad-ford

[superdave]

If Embiid does have a broken foot, he seems injury proned. Bad bones maybe?

http://espn.go.com/nba/draft2014/story/_/id/11107087/joel-embiid-suffers-foot-injury-prior-nba-draft

I would think this may scare the Cavs away. Unfortunately it may also de-value the #1 pick for trade value (see Love, Kevin).

Safest pick for the Cavs seems to be Wiggins. Here's hoping Embiid is not injured though. The NBA needs athletic big men.

[FerryFor50]

If Embiid does have a broken foot, he seems injury proned. Bad bones maybe?

http://espn.go.com/nba/draft2014/story/_/id/11107087/joel-embiid-suffers-foot-injury-prior-nba-draft

I would think this may scare the Cavs away. Unfortunately it may also de-value the #1 pick for trade value (see Love, Kevin).

Safest pick for the Cavs seems to be Wiggins. Here's hoping Embiid is not injured though. The NBA needs athletic big men.

This is the danger with overly tall guys or overly fat guys. The human body can't handle the added stress of weight or unbalanced height. It's no coincidence that you see so many 7 footers get hurt over the course of their basketball careers.

[Olympic Fan]

Sam Bowie II

[superdave]

The tweeeets about Embiiiid at the bottom are pretty interesting:

http://www.cbssports.com/nba/eye-on-basketball/24592385/report-joel-embiid-injures-foot-it-might-be-broken

[Kedsy]

The tweeeets about Embiiiid at the bottom are pretty interesting:

http://www.cbssports.com/nba/eye-on-basketball/24592385/report-joel-embiid-injures-foot-it-might-be-broken

The Sixers are the team that gets totally screwed by this. They have to risk taking the next Greg Oden or risk letting a potential All-Star slide by them. Compounded by the appearance of a huge dropoff after Jabari/Wiggins/Embiid. Maybe they'll get lucky and the Cavs will do something stupid like take Exum #1.

[kAzE]

The Sixers are the team that gets totally screwed by this. They have to risk taking the next Greg Oden or risk letting a potential All-Star slide by them. Compounded by the appearance of a huge dropoff after Jabari/Wiggins/Embiid. Maybe they'll get lucky and the Cavs will do something stupid like take Exum #1.

I think the Magic are the ones who get the shaft . . . the 76ers are actually very interested in Exum, who they believe can be a nice compliment in the back court with Michael Carter Williams. They had even considered shopping MCW. That's how highly they regard Exum. He's a big unknown, but I think he's the real deal. He reminds me a bit of Jamal Crawford offensively, because of his handles and ability to get where he wants to go and score. Many people, myself included, believe that if he had played a year of college ball in the States, he would easily be in the discussion for the #1 pick. He might not be a real point guard, but he's definitely skilled enough to be in the conversation with Parker, Wiggins and Embiid. If Embiid's injury problems are going to be a long term issue, I think the Magic are the ones who are left with the toughest decision.

I think the Cavs will take Wiggins, and the Bucks will go with Jabari. And if this foot injury is real, the 76ers will need to make a choice. On the one hand, it's not like they are going to be a contender next year, so there's no immediate need for Embiid to play right away, and he absolutely has more upside than Exum, but they could get spooked and shy away from Embiid because of his potential to become Greg Oden, and have a perfectly legit other option in Exum.

[sagegrouse]

My friends in France totally believed that the Royal Family was involved in the death of Princess Diana, because her popularity was a threat to them. They were wrong, of course, but enjoyed the speculation. They also believed that Texan LBJ was behind the assassination of President Kennedy in Dallas.

On a totally different plane, am I the only one that suspects that Embiid wants nothing to do with Cleveland or the Cavs?

[Henderson]

My friends in France totally believed that the Royal Family was involved in the death of Princess Diana, because her popularity was a threat to them. They were wrong, of course, but enjoyed the speculation. They also believed that Texan LBJ was behind the assassination of President Kennedy in Dallas.

On a totally different plane, am I the only one that suspects that Embiid wants nothing to do with Cleveland or the Cavs?

I would absolutely break my own foot to avoid living in Cleveland. Good theory, Sage.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I would absolutely break my own foot to avoid living in Cleveland. Good theory, Sage.

Gotta agree. Cleveland will have had 3 #1 picks in 4 years and somehow still go back to the lottery in 2015. "Cursed" is the appropriate term for this team.

[FerryFor50]

Gotta agree. Cleveland will have had 3 #1 picks in 4 years and somehow still go back to the lottery in 2015. "Cursed" is the appropriate term for this team.

It's the Comic Sans curse!

[FerryFor50]

Sorry for the delay...

The Charlotte Hornets select Jabari Brown SG from Missouri.

I'll write more when I get an opportunity.

Wrong thread... you want the Mock Draft thread...

http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?33925-2014-DBR-Mock-Draft-make-picks-here!!

[CDu]

Sorry for the delay...

The Charlotte Hornets select Jabari Brown SG from Missouri.

I'll write more when I get an opportunity.

I think this is in the wrong thread?

[mattman91]

Can you tell I've had a long day?

[superdave]

Celtics were previously thought to be the top contenders for Kevin Love, but GSW may be offering Klay Thmpson now.

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/11108483/golden-state-warriors-add-klay-thompson-possible-kevin-love-trade

Kevin Love, Kevin Martin, JJ Barea and the #13 pick for Klay Thompson and David Lee. Hmmm. Not bad.

I like the Bulls deal better: Love for Taj Gibson and Jimmy Butler. If the Bulls throw in the #16, that's a pretty good deal.

[Turk]

The Sixers are the team that gets totally screwed by this. They have to risk taking the next Greg Oden or risk letting a potential All-Star slide by them. Compounded by the appearance of a huge dropoff after Jabari/Wiggins/Embiid. Maybe they'll get lucky and the Cavs will do something stupid like take Exum #1.


I think the Magic are the ones who get the shaft . . . the 76ers are actually very interested in Exum, who they believe can be a nice compliment in the back court with Michael Carter Williams. They had even considered shopping MCW. That's how highly they regard Exum. He's a big unknown, but I think he's the real deal. He reminds me a bit of Jamal Crawford offensively, because of his handles and ability to get where he wants to go and score. Many people, myself included, believe that if he had played a year of college ball in the States, he would easily be in the discussion for the #1 pick. He might not be a real point guard, but he's definitely skilled enough to be in the conversation with Parker, Wiggins and Embiid. If Embiid's injury problems are going to be a long term issue, I think the Magic are the ones who are left with the toughest decision.

I think the Cavs will take Wiggins, and the Bucks will go with Jabari. And if this foot injury is real, the 76ers will need to make a choice. On the one hand, it's not like they are going to be a contender next year, so there's no immediate need for Embiid to play right away, and he absolutely has more upside than Exum, but they could get spooked and shy away from Embiid because of his potential to become Greg Oden, and have a perfectly legit other option in Exum.

Looks like the foot injury is real, and the Cleveland docs found it.

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/joel-embiid-is-hurt-and-the-draft-is-descending-into-chaos/

The Sixers have been operating under radio silence and there are all sorts of rumors flying around, mostly about moving up so they're guaranteed to get Wiggins. Wiggins was in town for two days of workouts, and they asked reporters to leave the property of the practice facility. So when they congregated on the sidewalk, some zealot in the office wasn't happy with that, and called the Philly police to move the reporters to the other side of the street.

http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/sixers/20140618_Wiggins_completes_stealth_workout_with_Si xers.html

In addition to Embiid's injury putting Exum into play, I think Vonleh becomes part of the discussion as well.

[superdave]

The Cavs should offer the #1 to Philly for the #3, #10 and Thad Young. With Embiid's injury, Philly either moves up to get Wiggins or really loves Dante Exum and takes him third.

Possible Philly building blocks -

MCW, Wiggins, Noel

MCW, Exum, Noel, #10 (Saric/Randle/Harris/Stauskus etc)

I am sure they know way more than us based on workouts. But if you could steal Randle at #10 or really like Saric, Stauskus or another player at #10, and do not see a huge difference between Wiggins and Exum, then you stay put. However, with Embiid out and this being a 3-man draft at the tip-top, conventional wisdom says trade up.

For Cleveland, the thought would be that Thad Young adds depth at the 4 and you can either take Exum or Vonleh at #3 or roll the dice on Embiid at #3 which is far more justifiable than rolling the dice on Embiid at #1. Taking Embiid at #3 and getting compensated with the #10 and Young for your risks is a pretty good deal.

[pfrduke]

The Cavs should offer the #1 to Philly for the #3, #10 and Thad Young. With Embiid's injury, Philly either moves up to get Wiggins or really loves Dante Exum and takes him third.

Possible Philly building blocks -

MCW, Wiggins, Noel

MCW, Exum, Noel, #10 (Saric/Randle/Harris/Stauskus etc)

I am sure they know way more than us based on workouts. But if you could steal Randle at #10 or really like Saric, Stauskus or another player at #10, and do not see a huge difference between Wiggins and Exum, then you stay put. However, with Embiid out and this being a 3-man draft at the tip-top, conventional wisdom says trade up.

For Cleveland, the thought would be that Thad Young adds depth at the 4 and you can either take Exum or Vonleh at #3 or roll the dice on Embiid at #3 which is far more justifiable than rolling the dice on Embiid at #1. Taking Embiid at #3 and getting compensated with the #10 and Young for your risks is a pretty good deal.

#3, #10, and Thad Young seems like an awful lot to give up to pick 1st rather than 3rd

[Duvall]

I think this is in the wrong thread?

Well, unless mattman91 is actually Rich Cho.

[superdave]

#3, #10, and Thad Young seems like an awful lot to give up to pick 1st rather than 3rd

It completely depends on how big of a difference the Sixers see between Wiggins and Exum. If the gap is narrow, you stand pat. If it's wide, you trade, right?

[Henderson]

Looks like the foot injury is real, and the Cleveland docs found it.

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/joel-embiid-is-hurt-and-the-draft-is-descending-into-chaos/
[/url]

In addition to Embiid's injury putting Exum into play, I think Vonleh becomes part of the discussion as well.

And the Portland Trailblazers suddenly wake up: "Can we trade Aldridge, Lillard and Batum to get Embiid at No. 1? We're experts and know what we're doing."

[NSDukeFan]

The Cavs should offer the #1 to Philly for the #3, #10 and Thad Young. With Embiid's injury, Philly either moves up to get Wiggins or really loves Dante Exum and takes him third.

Possible Philly building blocks -

MCW, Wiggins, Noel

MCW, Exum, Noel, #10 (Saric/Randle/Harris/Stauskus etc)

I am sure they know way more than us based on workouts. But if you could steal Randle at #10 or really like Saric, Stauskus or another player at #10, and do not see a huge difference between Wiggins and Exum, then you stay put. However, with Embiid out and this being a 3-man draft at the tip-top, conventional wisdom says trade up.

For Cleveland, the thought would be that Thad Young adds depth at the 4 and you can either take Exum or Vonleh at #3 or roll the dice on Embiid at #3 which is far more justifiable than rolling the dice on Embiid at #1. Taking Embiid at #3 and getting compensated with the #10 and Young for your risks is a pretty good deal.

I know I can probably go on a draft site to find this out, but I like getting my opinions from here better. What is the reason that Randle is no longer a lock as a top 5 pick and some boards have Vonleh ranked ahead of him? I don't get it.

[FerryFor50]

I know I can probably go on a draft site to find this out, but I like getting my opinions from here better. What is the reason that Randle is no longer a lock as a top 5 pick and some boards have Vonleh ranked ahead of him? I don't get it.

Concerns about a foot injury.

http://www.latimes.com/sports/lakers/lakersnow/la-sp-ln-julius-randle-works-lakers-no-foot-surgery-20140617-story.html

[theAlaskanBear]

https://twitter.com/Probballdraft/status/479762461696860160

Speaking of swapping picks, rumor about the Jazz swapping the #5 + Favors to grab Jabari Parker at #1. If they are desperate for a big man, this might be the best one they get, and then Randle/Vonleh/Smart would be available at #5. I would consider this...draft Smart/Exum and trade Dion Waiters. Then you have a nice defensive anchor at C, and a strong (smart) or big (Exum) athletic guard who will take the opposing teams PG or SG to let Irving defend the weaker player.

Or maybe even better, grab Favors and Vonleh to play the PF/stretch 4 with his 3pt shooting. A potentially elite defensive post game there. Thompson could be a great scorer off the bench, or he has value where you could work a trade for a SF or a SG.

Anyways, it gives the Cavs a touch more depth, and more flexibility to shape their team than if they draft Parker or Wiggins and sit pat. Hll, Favors is only 22....I think I would take this trade in a heartbeat the more I think about it.

[GGLC]

I know I can probably go on a draft site to find this out, but I like getting my opinions from here better. What is the reason that Randle is no longer a lock as a top 5 pick and some boards have Vonleh ranked ahead of him? I don't get it.

I don't think it's the foot injury as much as it's legit concerns that his skillset won't translate to a lot of superstar equity as a pro (wingspan, lowish steal/block rate, perceived below-average athleticism, etc.).

I think I take Gordon over Randle every single time, for example.

[superdave]

https://twitter.com/Probballdraft/status/479762461696860160

Speaking of swapping picks, rumor about the Jazz swapping the #5 + Favors to grab Jabari Parker at #1. If they are desperate for a big man, this might be the best one they get, and then Randle/Vonleh/Smart would be available at #5. I would consider this...draft Smart/Exum and trade Dion Waiters. Then you have a nice defensive anchor at C, and a strong (smart) or big (Exum) athletic guard who will take the opposing teams PG or SG to let Irving defend the weaker player.

Or maybe even better, grab Favors and Vonleh to play the PF/stretch 4 with his 3pt shooting. A potentially elite defensive post game there. Thompson could be a great scorer off the bench, or he has value where you could work a trade for a SF or a SG.

Anyways, it gives the Cavs a touch more depth, and more flexibility to shape their team than if they draft Parker or Wiggins and sit pat. Hll, Favors is only 22....I think I would take this trade in a heartbeat the more I think about it.


I like this idea for Cleveland. Cavs trade the #1 (Jabari) for #5 and Derrick Favors.

Favors averaged 13.3 and 8.7 in 30 minutes a game last season. His stats are trending up and his FG% is .522 in his first season as a starter. He and Tristan Thompson could complement each other by sharing duties at the 4, with Favors playing the 5 when they go small (big NBA trend these days).

The Cavs may still be able to grab Embiid at #5, or could get Vonleh, Smart or Aaron Gordon there as well. Or they could package the #5 with Dion Waiters and Varajao's expiring deal for a veteran.

The question is whether Utah should do this deal. Is Jabari worth Favors and the #5? If I am Utah, I would pass. Favors is a proven commodity and can play the 4 and 5. His ceiling is probably 20 points, 12 boards a game. It is tough to find a team player who can do all that and protect the rim. At #5, you have your choice of Vonleh, Randle, Smart, Gordon and maybe Embiid or Exum if they slip. With Kanter becoming a restricted free agent after this season, wouldnt it be better to hang onto Favors?

[FerryFor50]

I like this idea for Cleveland. Cavs trade the #1 (Jabari) for #5 and Derrick Favors.

Favors averaged 13.3 and 8.7 in 30 minutes a game last season. His stats are trending up and his FG% is .522 in his first season as a starter. He and Tristan Thompson could complement each other by sharing duties at the 4, with Favors playing the 5 when they go small (big NBA trend these days).

The Cavs may still be able to grab Embiid at #5, or could get Vonleh, Smart or Aaron Gordon there as well. Or they could package the #5 with Dion Waiters and Varajao's expiring deal for a veteran.

The question is whether Utah should do this deal. Is Jabari worth Favors and the #5? If I am Utah, I would pass. Favors is a proven commodity and can play the 4 and 5. His ceiling is probably 20 points, 12 boards a game. It is tough to find a team player who can do all that and protect the rim. At #5, you have your choice of Vonleh, Randle, Smart, Gordon and maybe Embiid or Exum if they slip. With Kanter becoming a restricted free agent after this season, wouldnt it be better to hang onto Favors?

The reasons this makes sense for Utah:

1) They have redundancy at the position with Kanter
2) Favors will cost them $$ to extend when his contract runs out in a few years: http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2013/10/18/4854170/derrick-favors-contract-extension-utah-jazz
3) Having Jabari (who is Mormon, as we all know) in Salt Lake City, home of the church, would be HUGE for ticket sales.
4) Pairing Parker with Hayward makes a lot of sense as well.

[superdave]

The reasons this makes sense for Utah:

1) They have redundancy at the position with Kanter
2) Favors will cost them $$ to extend when his contract runs out in a few years: http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2013/10/18/4854170/derrick-favors-contract-extension-utah-jazz
3) Having Jabari (who is Mormon, as we all know) in Salt Lake City, home of the church, would be HUGE for ticket sales.
4) Pairing Parker with Hayward makes a lot of sense as well.

Redundancy at the 4/5 is a good thing. You need at least a 3 man rotation with your bigs. They have two guys now in Kanter/Favors. Depending on how Rudy Gobert develops (less than 10 minutes per game last season), they may have a rotation going forward. That is, unless you think Marvin Williams should stick around and get overpaid.

Additionally, someone is going to offer Kanter a decent sized contract next summer and Utah will have to decide whether or not to match. That is likely a 4 year deal worth $50 million (Clips matched GSW's offer to Deandre Jordan For $43M after averaging 7 and 7). Kanter is a legit 5 at 6'11''. Can you get that for less than $12 million a year? Unlikely. So you have to match. This is not thaaaaat big of a deal with the salary cap projected to continue to go up. There should be cap room for both Kanter and Favors.

I see two major reasons to pursue Jabari. First, the Jazz were next to last in scoring at 95 points per. Second, his faith would make him an instant favorite locally.

But the question remains - is Favors and the #5 too much to pay? I say yes because it is more important to retain a quality frontline than to splurge for a small forward since there is so much depth at that position in the league. Also, Richard Jefferson is off the cap so the Jazz have nearly $30 million of cap room to work with for next season. They need scoring, they need veterans. Would they be better off keeping Favors and going after Ariza/Deng/Stephenson via free agency and trading the #5 for another player like Greg Monroe/Taj Gibson/MCW (http://www.prosportsdaily.com/Headlines/ExternalArticle?articleId=309505).

How about a lineup of Kanter/Favors/Deng/Hayward/Burke with MCW/Gobert/Burks off the bench?

[Kedsy]

How about a lineup of Kanter/Favors/Deng/Hayward/Burke with MCW/Gobert/Burks off the bench?

Why do you think MCW (the reigning rookie of the year) would come off the bench behind Burke?

[CDu]

Per the twittersphere, Phil Jackson has apparently become amenable to a sign-and-trade of Carmelo Anthony. Also per the twittersphere, the Bulls are the rumored landing place for said deal. And if you've believed the twittersphere to this point, the deal would include Carlos Boozer and draft picks (with non-guaranteed contracts to fill out the salary difference).

At face value, it seems hard to believe that such a deal could work. But because the Bulls can clear enough space ($17 million) and the Knicks have no picks in this draft while the Bulls have plenty of picks in this and a future draft, it may just be feasible. This would put New York in position to reload in the 2015 offseason (assuming someone wants to go there).

As a Bulls fan, I'm really intrigued. We've long needed a second scorer to take the pressure off Derrick Rose. It was the reason we couldn't beat the Heat when Rose was healthy (the Heat could just put LeBron on Rose and say goodnight). There aren't many more capable scorers in the NBA than Anthony. And potentially getting him without mortgaging the future with Gibson, Butler, or Mirotic would be amazing.

Which of course means it won't happen. But still. Interesting to think about.

[pfrduke]

Per the twittersphere, Phil Jackson has apparently become amenable to a sign-and-trade of Carmelo Anthony. Also per the twittersphere, the Bulls are the rumored landing place for said deal. And if you've believed the twittersphere to this point, the deal would include Carlos Boozer and draft picks (with non-guaranteed contracts to fill out the salary difference).

At face value, it seems hard to believe that such a deal could work. But because the Bulls can clear enough space ($17 million) and the Knicks have no picks in this draft while the Bulls have plenty of picks in this and a future draft, it may just be feasible. This would put New York in position to reload in the 2015 offseason (assuming someone wants to go there).

As a Bulls fan, I'm really intrigued. We've long needed a second scorer to take the pressure off Derrick Rose. It was the reason we couldn't beat the Heat when Rose was healthy (the Heat could just put LeBron on Rose and say goodnight). There aren't many more capable scorers in the NBA than Anthony. And potentially getting him without mortgaging the future with Gibson, Butler, or Mirotic would be amazing.

Which of course means it won't happen. But still. Interesting to think about.

Can the Knicks amnesty Boozer after acquiring him? It really will be remarkable if Carlos Boozer ends up not being amnestied, since there have been somewhere in the neighborhood of umpteen million columns written since the latest CBA discussing when the Bulls would use the amnesty on Boozer.

[CDu]

Can the Knicks amnesty Boozer after acquiring him? It really will be remarkable if Carlos Boozer ends up not being amnestied, since there have been somewhere in the neighborhood of umpteen million columns written since the latest CBA discussing when the Bulls would use the amnesty on Boozer.

Nope. Amnesty can only be used on your own players. So yeah, it would be pretty surprising.

[tommy]

https://twitter.com/Probballdraft/status/479762461696860160

Speaking of swapping picks, rumor about the Jazz swapping the #5 + Favors to grab Jabari Parker at #1. If they are desperate for a big man, this might be the best one they get, and then Randle/Vonleh/Smart would be available at #5. I would consider this...draft Smart/Exum and trade Dion Waiters. Then you have a nice defensive anchor at C, and a strong (smart) or big (Exum) athletic guard who will take the opposing teams PG or SG to let Irving defend the weaker player.

Or maybe even better, grab Favors and Vonleh to play the PF/stretch 4 with his 3pt shooting. A potentially elite defensive post game there. Thompson could be a great scorer off the bench, or he has value where you could work a trade for a SF or a SG.

Anyways, it gives the Cavs a touch more depth, and more flexibility to shape their team than if they draft Parker or Wiggins and sit pat. Hll, Favors is only 22....I think I would take this trade in a heartbeat the more I think about it.

As the mock GM of the Jazz, I feel compelled to weigh in on this proposal. In short, there's no way we're doing this.

Derrick Favors is 22 years old, coming off his best year, he is clearly improving every year, he is big, agile, mobile, and skilled. He's under contract for a couple of more years -- it's our largest contract, but it's our only big one. We like Enes Kanter a lot too, and we don't consider him to be redundant with Favors at all. In fact, with Rudy Gobbert, we think we have a very nice, young three man big guy rotation, and once we add Noah Vonleh, who I drafted at #5, we're feeling really good about our frontcourt. Of course, I made that pick before the possibliity of Joel Embiid dropping existed. If Embiid were to drop, we'd have to strongly consider him too. A big man rotation consisting of a healthy Embiid, plus Favors, Kanter, and Gobbert would be quite formidable in our opinion. Are we going to have to pay Kanter? Of course. We'll see how much it turns out to cost, but we're in a very good position capwise, because Marvin Williams ain't coming back and neither are a couple of other guys we're going to let walk and hope the door doesn't hit them on the way out. We're going to have to pay Gordon Hayward too -- this year -- but that's the way it is in the league. If you want to retain good players, at some point you have to pay them. We have plenty of cap space to do so.

Jabari is going to be a fine player in the league, maybe a great one. Yes, his being a Mormon would help ticket sales in the short term. But we can't let that be a determining factor in our roster decisions. Just not smart. We're not interested in giving up a known quantity -- a young, improving, but still known quantity -- in Favors, who we have under contract, for an unproven player like Jabari. No, Favors will never have the jump shooting game of Jabari, but Favors has a well-rounded game and we like the way he's continuing to work hard to improve it. Were we to make the trade, not only would we be giving up the known for the unknown, but we'd lose that #5 pick as well, which we badly need to help start to fill out a depleted roster? Sorry, there's just no way that makes sense for us. Especially with so many really quality players likely to be available at #5 -- Vonleh, Gordon, Randle, and even Embiid -- that would fit in really well with what we're building here.

[Des Esseintes]

Nope. Amnesty can only be used on your own players. So yeah, it would be pretty surprising.
Plus, didn't New York already exercise its amnesty on (I think) Chauncey Billups in order to sign Tyson Chandler?

[CDu]

Plus, didn't New York already exercise its amnesty on (I think) Chauncey Billups in order to sign Tyson Chandler?

I thought they used it on Allen Houston, whom the rule was named after. But yes, they have already used it one way or another.

[superdave]

Why do you think MCW (the reigning rookie of the year) would come off the bench behind Burke?

Let them duel in camp. Otherwise. Burke is the more natural pg, right?

[mr. synellinden]

Andrew Sharp asks a question (http://grantland.com/the-triangle/rodney-hood-duke-nba-draft-2014/) I've been thinking lately.

[Dukehky]

Dougie McBuckets to the Hornets!! Let's go!!!

Apparently Rodney threw up several times during his hornets workout. That kind of thing, I think will end up getting him picked lower than he probably should.

[Henderson]

As the mock GM of the Jazz, I feel compelled to weigh in on this proposal.

****

Jabari is going to be a fine player in the league, maybe a great one. Yes, his being a Mormon would help ticket sales in the short term.

The company with the beer concession is hoping the Jazz go in a different direction.

BTW, as mock GM of the Celtics, I noticed in yesterday's online Globe that there is a good bit of excitement and trepidation at the possibility that Embiid may be available at the Celtics #6 pick. Please, no.

[Dukehky]

The company with the beer concession is hoping the Jazz go in a different direction.

BTW, as mock GM of the Celtics, I noticed in yesterday's online Globe that there is a good bit of excitement and trepidation at the possibility that Embiid may be available at the Celtics #6 pick. Please, no.

He will go no later than Number 2. If the Cavs think they need to be better RIGHT FREAKING NOW they will take Parker and Wiggins, but if Embiid drops, the Bucks will scoop him up. And I think the top 3 are so much better than the next crop, I would be shocked that if he dropped to 3, the Sixers wouldn't go with Embiid as well.

I want Jabari in Philly, because I don't want him to go to Cleveland or Milwaukee for his own sake. Plus, if the Cavs don't pick up Jabari, Kyrie will be gone, and I will never have to think about Dan Gilbert or the Cavaliers again. Not the best franchise in the world, know what I mean?

[CameronBornAndBred]

Supposedly the Cavs are leaning towards Jabari now.

http://tracking.si.com/2014/06/21/cavaliers-leaning-toward-jabari-parker-duke-nba-draft/

[Henderson]

Supposedly the Cavs are leaning towards Jabari now.

http://tracking.si.com/2014/06/21/cavaliers-leaning-toward-jabari-parker-duke-nba-draft/

Interesting. As much as I'd like to see Jabari go to Philly for his future, being the No. 1 pick in the draft would be cool (as in $ cool). It doesn't do much for the Cavs' defense, but I like the Kyrie/Parker idea. I wonder if Blatt is exerting some influence. It would put the Cavs one great player away from being a contender in the East.

[kAzE]

I've probably flip flopped about 20 times regarding who the Cavs should take first. I was locked in on Embiid, but now I'm back where I started, on the Jabari bandwagon. He's way better than Wiggins is right now, and I think his ceiling is JUST AS HIGH.

I'm so tired of people acting like Jabari has no room for growth . . . everyone's like "He's already what he's going to be for the next 20 years." I think it's idiotic. He was 15-20 pounds overweight, and he still was by far the best freshman in the country last year. The Duke staff might have actually preferred him to stay around 240 pounds so he could fight for rebounds and play center at times out of necessity.

I think he's capable of being a mix between Carmelo Anthony and Paul Pierce, maybe even better than those guys. He's not as talented of a scorer/shooter as Melo, but he's got better passing instincts and gets his shots within the flow of the offense (granted, Melo doesn't have many options to work with on that roster). Bottom line is, he's far and away the best offensive talent in this draft, and people think Wiggins is automatically the better prospect because of his "upside." People thought Kevin Durant was going to fail because he couldn't lift a bench bar, how'd that turn out? Ok, so Jabari's not nearly as good as KD, but I'd take him over Wiggins.

To me, Jabari's defense is not broken. Just because he was a pretty bad defensive player as an overweight 18 year old in college doesn't mean he can't get an NBA trainer, slim down, and work hard on his defense and become a good defender. Kawhi Leonard couldn't shoot at all coming out of college. He drained like 80% of his 3s in the playoffs this year because he worked on it and got better. Jabari's defense is fixable, he just needs to lose weight. He's 19 years old, he's going to get a lot better, and he's already much better than Wiggins is right now. There's no guarantee Wiggins turns out to be a 20 point scorer, and Jabari is as close as you can get to a lock for that.

Wiggins clearly has the tools to become a superstar, but why gamble on that? He might turn out to be a guy who just isn't cut out to be a dominant player in the NBA. You could swing for the fences with Wiggins, but you might strike out. Jabari's a guaranteed double or triple. Plus, even though Wiggins may be the better fit because of his defense, you don't pick players according to team needs at the top of the draft, you pick the best available player. If I'm picking #1, I want to be 100% sure that I have a guy who can succeed in this league, and Jabari Parker is about as close as it gets to a sure thing.

P.S. Plus, I have a ton of friends who are Kentucky fans, and I'd love to hold the fact that Duke has more recent #1 picks than UK over their heads. (UK and Duke both have 2 recent ones right now, although Duke's Art Heyman was drafted #1 overall in 1963.) I think with 4, we would have more than anyone, actually.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Interesting take on our man Rodney Hood...

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/rodney-hood-duke-nba-draft-2014/

[roywhite]

Interesting take on our man Rodney Hood...

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/rodney-hood-duke-nba-draft-2014/

Maybe it's just me, but I'd be concerned about Rodney's bouts with a nervous stomach:

could mean some troubles that might flare up and cause him to miss time
could be an indication of some difficullty dealing with stress
could be nothing (yes, I'm aware of Bill Russell)

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Maybe it's just me, but I'd be concerned about Rodney's bouts with a nervous stomach:

could mean some troubles that might flare up and cause him to miss time
could be an indication of some difficullty dealing with stress
could be nothing (yes, I'm aware of Bill Russell)

Bobby Hurley famously had some stomach issues, as I recall.

I would rather draft someone with butterflies than a busted ankle.

Wasn't there a thread recently that traced all Duke's difficulties last year to their diet? Thought that was decided.

Good ol' offseason...

[CDu]

Bobby Hurley famously had some stomach issues, as I recall.

Yeah, and we lost that game... badly.

All kidding aside, I do think it is something that shouldn't be completely overlooked. A singular instance of tummy troubles isn't an issue. Repetitive stomach issues are worth consideration.

It may be nothing, but it probably shouldn't be ignored either.

[SoCalDukeFan]

is said to have thrown up before every game.

https://www.competitivedge.com/why-do-some-athletes-get-sick-their-stomach-games

I would not worry about it at all.

A 7 footer with back and foot problems, that is something I would worry about.

I had hopes the Jabari would become a 76er, doubtful now.

SoCal

[mattman91]

Bobby Hurley famously had some stomach issues, as I recall.

I would rather draft someone with butterflies than a busted ankle.

Wasn't there a thread recently that traced all Duke's difficulties last year to their diet? Thought that was decided.

Good ol' offseason...

Yep, that was the thread where we democratically elected a new team stool analyst to make sure our players are getting proper nutrition...

Is it October yet?

[Olympic Fan]

Yeah, and we lost that game... badly.All kidding aside, I do think it is something that shouldn't be completely overlooked. A singular instance of tummy troubles isn't an issue. Repetitive stomach issues are worth consideration.


This is a oft-repeated misunderstanding.

Hurley's intestinal problems came in the semifinal game with Arkansas, which Duke won. That was the game when he had to leave the bench and race to the locker room while the game was in play.

He said that he spent Sunday in his hotel room, missing practice.

By Monday, he insists he was healthy -- although probably a bit worn out by his bout with the flu.

Whatever, it was a one-time thing for Hurley.

But Bill Russell -- the greatest player in NBA history -- was famously sick before almost every game. A number of Duke players also had that problem -- not as often as Russell -- but frequently. Shane Battier threw up quite often before a game and Art Heyman also famously heaved before many games.

[roywhite]

Maybe it's just me, but I'd be concerned about Rodney's bouts with a nervous stomach:

could mean some troubles that might flare up and cause him to miss time
could be an indication of some difficullty dealing with stress
could be nothing (yes, I'm aware of Bill Russell)


Bill Russell is said to have thrown up before every game.

https://www.competitivedge.com/why-do-some-athletes-get-sick-their-stomach-games


SoCal



But Bill Russell -- the greatest player in NBA history -- was famously sick before almost every game. A number of Duke players also had that problem -- not as often as Russell -- but frequently. Shane Battier threw up quite often before a game and Art Heyman also famously heaved before many games.

Just to clarify, did Bill Russell have this problem, too?

[superdave]

http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=espn:11122778


Here's a quick video of Chad Ford's new mock draft.

He bumps Jabari up to #1 and Wiggins to #2 (flip-flopping them from his mock last week post-Embiid injury). He has Exum at 3, Vonleh at 4 with Embiid going to the Celtic's at #6. Also of note, Dario Saric is apparently going to sign a 2-year deal with a team in Turkey. Ford drops Saric into the later teens, since an NBA will draft him knowing they have to wait for him for 2 years.

The interesting thing here is the Cavs know Philly covets Wiggins (if you believe the stories). All leaks and rumours about what Cleveland will do with the #1 pick should be viewed as Cleveland dangling that pick in fron of Philly, hoping they will overpay to move up. The #3, Thad and next year's 1st round pick? The #3, Thad and #10? Will be fun to speculate on....

[theAlaskanBear]

http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=espn:11122778


Here's a quick video of Chad Ford's new mock draft.

He bumps Jabari up to #1 and Wiggins to #2 (flip-flopping them from his mock last week post-Embiid injury). He has Exum at 3, Vonleh at 4 with Embiid going to the Celtic's at #6. Also of note, Dario Saric is apparently going to sign a 2-year deal with a team in Turkey. Ford drops Saric into the later teens, since an NBA will draft him knowing they have to wait for him for 2 years.

The interesting thing here is the Cavs know Philly covets Wiggins (if you believe the stories). All leaks and rumours about what Cleveland will do with the #1 pick should be viewed as Cleveland dangling that pick in fron of Philly, hoping they will overpay to move up. The #3, Thad and next year's 1st round pick? The #3, Thad and #10? Will be fun to speculate on....

Well, the Chad Ford mock may get revised again, because Russillo from SVP & Russillo is reporting that Jabari was decidedly mediocre at his Cavs workout, and that reports are he seemed disinterested (even suggesting that he purposely tanked his workout) and would prefer playing in Milwaukee (close to Chicago?). Honestly I think the Milwaukee roster has more promise, but maybe Parker has also heard something through the Duke back-channels (Luol, Irving) about Cleveland.

So many rumors at this point.

[TexHawk]

Well, the Chad Ford mock may get revised again, because Russillo from SVP & Russillo is reporting that Jabari was decidedly mediocre at his Cavs workout, and that reports are he seemed disinterested (even suggesting that he purposely tanked his workout) and would prefer playing in Milwaukee (close to Chicago?). Honestly I think the Milwaukee roster has more promise, but maybe Parker has also heard something through the Duke back-channels (Luol, Irving) about Cleveland.

So many rumors at this point.

You can read Ford's take on the top two here (http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draft/mock/?season=2014&version=10&source=Chad-Ford-Mock-Draft) free, the rest needs a subscription. He is already taking Jabari's poor workout** into account.


** I'm not buying anything out of any insider's mouth this week.

[superdave]

You can read Ford's take on the top two here (http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draft/mock/?season=2014&version=10&source=Chad-Ford-Mock-Draft) free, the rest needs a subscription. He is already taking Jabari's poor workout** into account.


** I'm not buying anything out of any insider's mouth this week.

From the Jabari portion:

The third option, a trade, is also on the table. The Cavs received intriguing offers from the Sixers, Magic and Jazz late last week. Each is offering its own high lottery pick plus a veteran. The Cavs could theoretically get either of Thaddeus Young, Arron Afflalo or Derrick Favors and still have a top-5 pick in the draft. It would make it much easier to draft Embiid if you knew you got additional value in the form of a veteran who can help now.


Uhm - Cleveland? You awake and alive? Take Derrick Favors and the #5 for the #1 right now! If that deal is on the table, run to the phone and say "Yes!"

[Henderson]

From the Jabari portion:

The third option, a trade, is also on the table. The Cavs received intriguing offers from the Sixers, Magic and Jazz late last week. Each is offering its own high lottery pick plus a veteran. The Cavs could theoretically get either of Thaddeus Young, Arron Afflalo or Derrick Favors and still have a top-5 pick in the draft. It would make it much easier to draft Embiid if you knew you got additional value in the form of a veteran who can help now.


Uhm - Cleveland? You awake and alive? Take Derrick Favors and the #5 for the #1 right now! If that deal is on the table, run to the phone and say "Yes!"

Couldn't agree more. A smoking good deal. Favors isn't cheap at $10M+ per year, but he's still only 22, a terrific player, and isn't a free agent until 2018. Plus the level of talent that will be available at #5 to team with Kyrie and Favors is very high. And as you rightly point out, they might even have Embiid available, which could be worth a shot if they already acquired Favors. I'm not an Embiid fan and have stated here that I predict his injuries will make him a bust in the NBA. But there is a risk-reward calculation that makes some sense if he's not your only first rounder.

[SoCalDukeFan]

While he might have been disinterested because he does not want to go to Cleveland, I doubt if he put on 20 lbs just to look fat for the Cavs.

I think his conditioning, or lack thereof, would concern me.

SoCal

[Billy Dat]

New nickname for Wiggins floating around Twitter...Maple Jordan. It's hyperbolic, but fun.

As for Jabari tanking his Cavs workout, that would be rough if its true. Laura Keeley is tweeting that he weighed in at 255 in Cleveland vs playing at 235 at Duke. Eat a carrot my man!

As for Chad Ford, I really try to view the guy impartially but he is a Kansas homer and, to me, it never fails that he pumps Kansas dudes and shades our guys. Granted, his opinions are always supposed to be 100% a translation of what he is hearing from NBA front offices, but I feel like he always puts one across our bow in an offhanded way if he gets the chance.

[TexHawk]

New nickname for Wiggins floating around Twitter...Maple Jordan. It's hyperbolic, but fun.

As for Jabari tanking his Cavs workout, that would be rough if its true. Laura Keeley is tweeting that he weighed in at 255 in Cleveland vs playing at 235 at Duke. Eat a carrot my man!

As for Chad Ford, I really try to view the guy impartially but he is a Kansas homer and, to me, it never fails that he pumps Kansas dudes and shades our guys. Granted, his opinions are always supposed to be 100% a translation of what he is hearing from NBA front offices, but I feel like he always puts one across our bow in an offhanded way if he gets the chance.

The Maple Jordan thing has been around since at least the summer of 2012 (http://sportsoftheroundtable.com/2012/08/20/the-maple-jordan-story-a-brief-intro-to-andrew-wiggins/). It's probably hurt him more than anything, Deadspin has been using it since November (http://deadspin.com/so-whos-this-andrew-wiggins-kid-an-explainer-1456392439).

As for Ford, he IS a KU guy, but if I would accuse him of anything, it's being a ESPN homer. On the night of the lottery draw, he started by pumping up Jabari, then switched to Wiggins, then to Embiid until the injury. While throwing out things like "Exum is right there, and Cleveland/Philly love him!" After the Embiid injury, it was Wiggins, now it's Parker again. His employer is broadcasting the draft on Thursday, so building up some drama is probably not a coincidence.

[Bluegrassdevil1]

After seeing multiple sources post the photo/story of Parker giving Embiid Oreos to cheer him up, I am left to wonder if Embiid actually got to eat any of the cookies.

The select NBA club of Sean May, Craig Smith, Shawn Kemp, Michael Sweetney, and Oliver Miller are preparing the banner, bunting, and of course, the lavish buffet, for Parker once he is drafted.

[Turk]

The interesting thing here is the Cavs know Philly covets Wiggins (if you believe the stories). All leaks and rumours about what Cleveland will do with the #1 pick should be viewed as Cleveland dangling that pick in fron of Philly, hoping they will overpay to move up. The #3, Thad and next year's 1st round pick? The #3, Thad and #10? Will be fun to speculate on....

Not sure where I read it, but I don't think the Sixers give up the #10 to move up - that's too much. Next years 1st rounder will also be a high pick, because the Sixers will be in the lottery again next year, and I don't think they trade that either. Got plenty of 2nd rounders to offer though. No good rumors out of Philly because the Sixers have lowered the cone of silence; the locals are complaining there's no scoop other than whatever the other teams choose to leak on the other side of the offers. Wiggins got more security on his visit to Philly than Obama (maybe the black Suburbans the Sixers used were borrowed from the White House - Obama's a hoop guy). One of the radio guys did a funny riff on Hinkie and wrapped up with "brought to you by Secret - the official deodorant of the Sixers. They don't want you to know they'll still stink." (when it comes to sports, it's rarely sunny in Philadelphia...)

[superdave]

As if if we need more evidence that Chad Ford is an Espn hype guy, he and Jeff Goodman had a fake draft via Twitter last night, complete with the ability to make trades.

http://espn.go.com/insider/story/_/id/11124837/chad-ford-jeff-goodman-go-head-head-insider-first-ever-twitter-mock-draft


Of note was what they did with Philly. First, Ford took Exum at #3. Then he traded MCW to the Lakers for the #7 and drafted Noah Vonleh. Then they drafted McDermott at #10 and flipped him to the Bulls for #16 and #19. Ford took Dario Saric at 16 and TJ Warren at 19. Later, he fake-traded Thad Young for the #25 and Omer Asik (Rockets) and took Damien Ingliss at 25.

To re-cap, Philly goes all class of 2014 with Exum, Vonleh, Saric, Warren, Ingliss, plus added Omer Asik. That gives them a starting lineup of Exum, Ingliss, Warren, Asik and Vonleh/Nerlens. Only Asik has ever played in an NBA game.

They also traded Trey Burke and the #5 to Milwaukee for Jabari, and used the #5 on Randle. Not sure Milwaukee does that deal.

Hopefully the draft is this fun and screwy.

[CameronBornAndBred]

As for Jabari tanking his Cavs workout, that would be rough if its true. Laura Keeley is tweeting that he weighed in at 255 in Cleveland vs playing at 235 at Duke. Eat a carrot my man!

Can't make excellent Jabari Bars without sampling the product.

[Henderson]

Can't make excellent Jabari Bars without sampling the product.

I read that, then read your signature line and thought to myself: How far away is lunchtime?

[flyingdutchdevil]

As if if we need more evidence that Chad Ford is an Espn hype guy, he and Jeff Goodman had a fake draft via Twitter last night, complete with the ability to make trades.

http://espn.go.com/insider/story/_/id/11124837/chad-ford-jeff-goodman-go-head-head-insider-first-ever-twitter-mock-draft


Of note was what they did with Philly. First, Ford took Exum at #3. Then he traded MCW to the Lakers for the #7 and drafted Noah Vonleh. Then they drafted McDermott at #10 and flipped him to the Bulls for #16 and #19. Ford took Dario Saric at 16 and TJ Warren at 19. Later, he fake-traded Thad Young for the #25 and Omer Asik (Rockets) and took Damien Ingliss at 25.

To re-cap, Philly goes all class of 2014 with Exum, Vonleh, Saric, Warren, Ingliss, plus added Omer Asik. That gives them a starting lineup of Exum, Ingliss, Warren, Asik and Vonleh/Nerlens. Only Asik has ever played in an NBA game.

They also traded Trey Burke and the #5 to Milwaukee for Jabari, and used the #5 on Randle. Not sure Milwaukee does that deal.

Hopefully the draft is this fun and screwy.

I think there are few jobs more fun than being an NBA GM. Sure, your job has terrible job security and you probably get berated all the time from players, coaches, and owners, but I think putting a team together sounds like a fun plan. Complete biased perspective, but I think being an NBA GM is more fun and manageable than an NFL, NHL, or MLB GM. Fewer players than any other sport, a manageable number of games to follow, stats are only half the story (unlike baseball, where it's the whole story)... I'd definitely be up for it.

[Duke95]

From the Jabari portion:

The third option, a trade, is also on the table. The Cavs received intriguing offers from the Sixers, Magic and Jazz late last week. Each is offering its own high lottery pick plus a veteran. The Cavs could theoretically get either of Thaddeus Young, Arron Afflalo or Derrick Favors and still have a top-5 pick in the draft. It would make it much easier to draft Embiid if you knew you got additional value in the form of a veteran who can help now.


Uhm - Cleveland? You awake and alive? Take Derrick Favors and the #5 for the #1 right now! If that deal is on the table, run to the phone and say "Yes!"

The Jazz would absolutely love to have Parker. He's a top player AND he's mormon. It would be an enormous coup. Not to mention Quin Snyder, a Dukie, is coaching.

[JasonEvans]

After seeing multiple sources post the photo/story of Parker giving Embiid Oreos to cheer him up, I am left to wonder if Embiid actually got to eat any of the cookies.

The select NBA club of Sean May, Craig Smith, Shawn Kemp, Michael Sweetney, and Oliver Miller are preparing the banner, bunting, and of course, the lavish buffet, for Parker once he is drafted.

I dunno. He doesn't look that bad to me. Granted, he is wearing a suit, but his face doesn't look blown up like he has been packing on the pounds.

http://scontent-a-iad.cdninstagram.com/hphotos-xaf1/l/t51.2885-15/10431894_537808202987985_441744599_n.jpg

-Jason "I love me some Golden Oreos! The chocolate are awesome, but sometimes I need a break and go Golden" Evans

[flyingdutchdevil]

The Jazz would absolutely love to have Parker. He's a top player AND he's mormon. It would be an enormous coup. Not to mention Quin Snyder, a Dukie, is coaching.

Too bad the Jazz have zero assets with which to trade to get Parker. Utah's GM made the awful decision of letting Jefferson and Millsap both walk - for free no less - last year.

[flyingdutchdevil]

-Jason "I love me some vanilla Oreos! Glad Jabari likes them too" Evans

I hope Jabari loves salads, lean chicken, and rice cakes more...

[TexHawk]

I think there are few jobs more fun than being an NBA GM. Sure, your job has terrible job security and you probably get berated all the time from players, coaches, and owners, but I think putting a team together sounds like a fun plan. Complete biased perspective, but I think being an NBA GM is more fun and manageable than an NFL, NHL, or MLB GM. Fewer players than any other sport, a manageable number of games to follow, stats are only half the story (unlike baseball, where it's the whole story)... I'd definitely be up for it.

Yea, the average GM salary in the NBA is $1.5 million too. I could handle that.

[superdave]

Too bad the Jazz have zero assets with which to trade to get Parker. Utah's GM made the awful decision of letting Jefferson and Millsap both walk - for free no less - last year.

The Jazz could offer the following to get the #1 pick -

#5 plus Derrick Favors (stroooong offer)
#5 plus Enes Kanter (almost as strong)
#5 plus Trey Burke (averaged 13 and 6, Cavs have Kyrie) plus Rudy Gobert
#5 plus Alec Burks (14ppg, 35% from 3) plus Rudy Gobert

The Favors package is the only one that would make the Cavs jump. That's great for Cleveland, but too much for Utah (although Jabari may make them lose discipline). I dont see them offering Gordon Heyward unless it's for a current All-Star.

[flyingdutchdevil]

The Jazz could offer the following to get the #1 pick -

#5 plus Derrick Favors (stroooong offer)
#5 plus Enes Kanter (almost as strong)
#5 plus Trey Burke (averaged 13 and 6, Cavs have Kyrie) plus Rudy Gobert
#5 plus Alec Burks (14ppg, 35% from 3) plus Rudy Gobert

The Favors package is the only one that would make the Cavs jump. That's great for Cleveland, but too much for Utah (although Jabari may make them lose discipline). I dont see them offering Gordon Heyward unless it's for a current All-Star.

Aren't Favors and Thompson identical? Highly athletic 4s who can't shoot to save their lives? I guess Favors is a much better defensive player, but still...

[Olympic Fan]

According to ESPN "sources" the Cavs are torn between Parker and Wiggins (no trade in the discussion):

http://espn.go.com/nba/draft2014/story/_/id/11127401/cleveland-cavaliers-torn-draft-first

The story says that they actually prefer Parker, but his lousy workout for them -- combined with a great Wiggins workout -- has the decision up in the air.

PS Check out the comments section -- a lot of Parker hate there

[superdave]

Aren't Favors and Thompson identical? Highly athletic 4s who can't shoot to save their lives? I guess Favors is a much better defensive player, but still...

Favors measured 6'10'' and 245 at the draft combine with a 7'4'' wingspan and 9'2'' standing reach.

Thompson was 6'8.75'' and 227 with a 7'1.25'' winspan and a 9'0.5'' standing reach.

That's the difference between a power forward and a power forward/center, I'd argue. That makes Favors more valuable. With Varajao aging out, having trouble staying healthy, and in his final contract year, I'd grab Favors if I could and pair him with Thompson in the front court for the next 10 years. Will Jabari be any better than Favors in the long run? Maybe. But you are still getting the #5 pick in that deal and that is Smart (allows you to deal Waiters), Vonleh, Gordon or maybe even Embiid.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Parker is still a class act.
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2106580-jabari-parker-visits-joel-embiid-at-hospital-brings-oreos

[Duke95]

Too bad the Jazz have zero assets with which to trade to get Parker. Utah's GM made the awful decision of letting Jefferson and Millsap both walk - for free no less - last year.

If the Jazz get Parker, there would be an instant appeal to the fan base. I think Utah would be willing to trade quite a bit to get a chance at Parker. But, I agree, I'm not sure there's a lot to trade other than the #5 pick and maybe Favors.

[Bluegrassdevil1]

I love the paradoxes of the "presumed" top four picks:

Emiid: HUGE upside. Could be the only big man equal to A. Davis for the next 10-15 years. Could be THE dream pillar to build a franchise around (Duncan, Hakeem, Shaq, etc).

Injuries seem to be a MASSIVE red flag, bone/nutrition issues that may be unfixable. Could be a Olowokandi, Curry level bust, or have the shortened career of Ming.

Wiggins: Opposite of Parker: good defense, questionable offense. Lab-built prototype of an NBA star. If he reaches his peak, then he becomes an all-time great.

Passive. No killer instinct. May prefer to be a sidekick. Not an alpha dog.

Parker: Most ready prospect right now. Seems set to be a decade long 18-25 point scorer. Wants his public image to be spotless.

Defense is his kryptonite. Wants to be Bryant, Durant, et al., but may not have the fortitude to do so. Not a natural born leader.

Exum: Could be the best prospect since James, or at the very least, Durant. Is a vicious killer (Jordan, Bryant mold). Can play on both ends.

Not extremely athletic. Never faced consistent high-level talent. (A Perth buddy of mine believes that he really feels the weight of the entire nation, and wants to be a star for every Aussie).


Could be four great stars. Could be four guys that never reach their ceiling.

My guess:

Exum is the strongest long-term performer. Wins at least two NBA titles.

Wiggins never becomes a superstar, but an excellent addition to play along aside another star. Makes a few deep runs, never gets the brass ring.

Emiid's career is hampered by bone issues; not a bust, but not a franchise player. Solidifies himself as backup for a younger, dominant center.

Parker is Carmelo 2.0 on offense; plays on multiple teams, is a model citizen. Never makes the NBA Finals.

[Des Esseintes]

Favors measured 6'10'' and 245 at the draft combine with a 7'4'' wingspan and 9'2'' standing reach.

Thompson was 6'8.75'' and 227 with a 7'1.25'' winspan and a 9'0.5'' standing reach.

That's the difference between a power forward and a power forward/center, I'd argue. That makes Favors more valuable. With Varajao aging out, having trouble staying healthy, and in his final contract year, I'd grab Favors if I could and pair him with Thompson in the front court for the next 10 years. Will Jabari be any better than Favors in the long run? Maybe. But you are still getting the #5 pick in that deal and that is Smart (allows you to deal Waiters), Vonleh, Gordon or maybe even Embiid.

This is correct. Favors can play center, a position with much greater scarcity, and his defensive ceiling is high. Potentially DPOY high, though this past season was not the leap forward for which a lot of people hoped. His offensive game is limited yet, but he put up a PER of 19.0 last season, and, despite having been in the league a year longer than Thompson, is actually 8 months the younger of the two. Most observers would take Favors in a heartbeat over Thompson.