(mostly) non-rotation musings about '14-'15

[uh_no]

so the rotation predictions are currently being beaten to death in the other thread (as I'm sure they will be from now until next February...) I wanted to muse on some other things that I think are not necessarily related to exactly who will get how many minutes....since I find such discussions quite droll......anyway

1) we will have a 7-8 man rotation....I don't know who the 8 will be, and neither does anyone else here. but every year we have new players, and every year many here think "oh we will be the deepest in the country" and every year we only play 7-8 of them big minutes in big games, and every year we will blame losses on "xyz should be playing more!" and say "xyz will transfer for sure!" nothing will change next year...the details are unimportant....heck we could make a good madlibs about this!

2) we'll reevaluate the way we play defense....and it won't be zone. K hinted as much when he said after the mercer game that they needed to go back and reevaluate what they do on the less glamorous end of the floor. I normally consider K much less flexible in his defensive game planning as opposed to offense, but I think he' had his hand forced. losing to mercer is unacceptable for the players, this program, and most importantly to K (note, i'm using the literal definition of unacceptable....in that they won't accept it as standard for the program....not as many of you will assume...that i think it's unacceptable from a fans perspective....i really don't think the team cares what I think....as well they shouldn't...they don't owe me anything...especially concern over what I think is acceptable)....If I had to guess, I think we'll see a more compact defense, ala 2010, and more work on going through screens rather than switching nearly everything....why? two reasons: 1)not switching as much is easier, and we need something freshman can learn and play well from the get-go....we don't have 4 years with these guys....it's much easier to say "hey you, guard him. always" we have plenty of athletes who can do that....if they lose a step because they're wondering whether to switch or not....we'll lose games 2)much moreso than this last year, we have a team where some players simply will not be able to guard others....with jahlil and marshall, and even to a lesser degree amile, will stay with their bigs, and potentially out big them. I expect marshall to continue his hedging, as he has gotten pretty good at it

3) having scheyer play a bigger role on the coaching staff will allow us to better execute in pressure situations...late in shot clock and late in game...we all know we would go through long stretches with terrible shots and few points late in games....evidenced by the huge runs teams would make in many of our losses...since '10, K has admittedly moved to a much more free flowing "pro-style" offense....the goal being to let the players make plays....and this works great a lot of the time, but it breaks down when you don't have NBA players all over the floor and are put under pressure...you don't have a "play" to fall back on...and the offense grinds to a halt...you end up with "black hole" type possessions, where whomever happened to have the ball was going to try to take the shot...come hell or high water. This worked often when it was jabari or hood....but then other teams realized they could work hard to deny those two the ball, and then....nobody else on the floor could consistently make a play....and since we were standing around in iso....it was brick city. Jon was an expert executing offense in these situations. expect him to work with the guards at what to do in these situations to ensure good shots are gotten

4) duke won't win the national championship. why? couple reasons. first, the odds aren't in our favor...give me any team against the field, and I'm taking the field. second, I'm not sure we have the guard play to get it done. I haven't been sold on quinn, as he seems largely the same player he was 2 years ago (could he improve? absotluely. hope he does...we could use it....but as a senior, i'm in "show me" mode....), and I believe a lot then weighs on tyrus jones....and though he seems like a great player, I feel with few exceptions, experienced PG play is a huge asset in march

[MCFinARL]

so the rotation predictions are currently being beaten to death in the other thread (as I'm sure they will be from now until next February...) I wanted to muse on some other things that I think are not necessarily related to exactly who will get how many minutes....since I find such discussions quite droll......anyway

1) we will have a 7-8 man rotation....I don't know who the 8 will be, and neither does anyone else here. but every year we have new players, and every year many here think "oh we will be the deepest in the country" and every year we only play 7-8 of them big minutes in big games, and every year we will blame losses on "xyz should be playing more!" and say "xyz will transfer for sure!" nothing will change next year...the details are unimportant....heck we could make a good madlibs about this!

2) we'll reevaluate the way we play defense....and it won't be zone. K hinted as much when he said after the mercer game that they needed to go back and reevaluate what they do on the less glamorous end of the floor. I normally consider K much less flexible in his defensive game planning as opposed to offense, but I think he' had his hand forced. losing to mercer is unacceptable for the players, this program, and most importantly to K (note, i'm using the literal definition of unacceptable....in that they won't accept it as standard for the program....not as many of you will assume...that i think it's unacceptable from a fans perspective....i really don't think the team cares what I think....as well they shouldn't...they don't owe me anything...especially concern over what I think is acceptable)....If I had to guess, I think we'll see a more compact defense, ala 2010, and more work on going through screens rather than switching nearly everything....why? two reasons: 1)not switching as much is easier, and we need something freshman can learn and play well from the get-go....we don't have 4 years with these guys....it's much easier to say "hey you, guard him. always" we have plenty of athletes who can do that....if they lose a step because they're wondering whether to switch or not....we'll lose games 2)much moreso than this last year, we have a team where some players simply will not be able to guard others....with jahlil and marshall, and even to a lesser degree amile, will stay with their bigs, and potentially out big them. I expect marshall to continue his hedging, as he has gotten pretty good at it

3) having scheyer play a bigger role on the coaching staff will allow us to better execute in pressure situations...late in shot clock and late in game...we all know we would go through long stretches with terrible shots and few points late in games....evidenced by the huge runs teams would make in many of our losses...since '10, K has admittedly moved to a much more free flowing "pro-style" offense....the goal being to let the players make plays....and this works great a lot of the time, but it breaks down when you don't have NBA players all over the floor and are put under pressure...you don't have a "play" to fall back on...and the offense grinds to a halt...you end up with "black hole" type possessions, where whomever happened to have the ball was going to try to take the shot...come hell or high water. This worked often when it was jabari or hood....but then other teams realized they could work hard to deny those two the ball, and then....nobody else on the floor could consistently make a play....and since we were standing around in iso....it was brick city. Jon was an expert executing offense in these situations. expect him to work with the guards at what to do in these situations to ensure good shots are gotten

4) duke won't win the national championship. why? couple reasons. first, the odds aren't in our favor...give me any team against the field, and I'm taking the field. second, I'm not sure we have the guard play to get it done. I haven't been sold on quinn, as he seems largely the same player he was 2 years ago (could he improve? absotluely. hope he does...we could use it....but as a senior, i'm in "show me" mode....), and I believe a lot then weighs on tyrus jones....and though he seems like a great player, I feel with few exceptions, experienced PG play is a huge asset in march

Interesting observations, and you did manage not to talk about who would be in the rotation--how long until that comes up in this thread? I'm putting the over-under at 11 posts. One nitpick though--I'm not expecting much from Tyrus Jones. But I am optimistic about Tyus Jones.

[jimsumner]

I think a Cook, Sulaimon, T. Jones, maybe M. Jones guard rotation could easily be one of the best in the nation, certainly good enough to cut down the nets.


so the rotation predictions are currently being beaten to death in the other thread (as I'm sure they will be from now until next February...) I wanted to muse on some other things that I think are not necessarily related to exactly who will get how many minutes....since I find such discussions quite droll......anyway

1) we will have a 7-8 man rotation....I don't know who the 8 will be, and neither does anyone else here. but every year we have new players, and every year many here think "oh we will be the deepest in the country" and every year we only play 7-8 of them big minutes in big games, and every year we will blame losses on "xyz should be playing more!" and say "xyz will transfer for sure!" nothing will change next year...the details are unimportant....heck we could make a good madlibs about this!

2) we'll reevaluate the way we play defense....and it won't be zone. K hinted as much when he said after the mercer game that they needed to go back and reevaluate what they do on the less glamorous end of the floor. I normally consider K much less flexible in his defensive game planning as opposed to offense, but I think he' had his hand forced. losing to mercer is unacceptable for the players, this program, and most importantly to K (note, i'm using the literal definition of unacceptable....in that they won't accept it as standard for the program....not as many of you will assume...that i think it's unacceptable from a fans perspective....i really don't think the team cares what I think....as well they shouldn't...they don't owe me anything...especially concern over what I think is acceptable)....If I had to guess, I think we'll see a more compact defense, ala 2010, and more work on going through screens rather than switching nearly everything....why? two reasons: 1)not switching as much is easier, and we need something freshman can learn and play well from the get-go....we don't have 4 years with these guys....it's much easier to say "hey you, guard him. always" we have plenty of athletes who can do that....if they lose a step because they're wondering whether to switch or not....we'll lose games 2)much moreso than this last year, we have a team where some players simply will not be able to guard others....with jahlil and marshall, and even to a lesser degree amile, will stay with their bigs, and potentially out big them. I expect marshall to continue his hedging, as he has gotten pretty good at it

3) having scheyer play a bigger role on the coaching staff will allow us to better execute in pressure situations...late in shot clock and late in game...we all know we would go through long stretches with terrible shots and few points late in games....evidenced by the huge runs teams would make in many of our losses...since '10, K has admittedly moved to a much more free flowing "pro-style" offense....the goal being to let the players make plays....and this works great a lot of the time, but it breaks down when you don't have NBA players all over the floor and are put under pressure...you don't have a "play" to fall back on...and the offense grinds to a halt...you end up with "black hole" type possessions, where whomever happened to have the ball was going to try to take the shot...come hell or high water. This worked often when it was jabari or hood....but then other teams realized they could work hard to deny those two the ball, and then....nobody else on the floor could consistently make a play....and since we were standing around in iso....it was brick city. Jon was an expert executing offense in these situations. expect him to work with the guards at what to do in these situations to ensure good shots are gotten

4) duke won't win the national championship. why? couple reasons. first, the odds aren't in our favor...give me any team against the field, and I'm taking the field. second, I'm not sure we have the guard play to get it done. I haven't been sold on quinn, as he seems largely the same player he was 2 years ago (could he improve? absotluely. hope he does...we could use it....but as a senior, i'm in "show me" mode....), and I believe a lot then weighs on tyrus jones....and though he seems like a great player, I feel with few exceptions, experienced PG play is a huge asset in march

[uh_no]

I think a Cook, Sulaimon, T. Jones, maybe M. Jones guard rotation could easily be one of the best in the nation, certainly good enough to cut down the nets.

I think they could be, and I think they might not be. I think there is still a lot of unknown there.

While cook is mostly a known entity at this point, will he improve on his weaknesses moving into senior year?
Sulaimon is what he is, but needs to show he can contribute with consistency. He had excellent games (cuse part 1, uva part 1, and to some degree, mercer), and some poor games (uva, clemson ND, games 3-10)....when he's on, he can break down defenses and get to the lane...when he's not, he disappears....we need more of the former....I think he needs to add another 3-4 points per game.

matt certainly showed moments of promise, but also only scored a grand total of 20 points in ACC play. I certainly think he could turn out to be huge, but in the end, I think there is simply too much talent and experience in front of him this year.

Tyus is shows promise in his HS games...I loved his play in the McD game, only putting up 10 points, but chopping up defenses so well that if the defenders were onions, we'd all be in tears, and then finding his teammates.....I thought it was impressive for a bunch of guys thrown together for an allstar game, that he was able to find them with ease. but will he be able to do that in the college level in whatever system K puts in? we simply don't know. Is he kyrie 2.0? is he even close? I hope so.


so who will be the guards? if we want combos like boatright/napier, smith/siva, lamb/teague, I think it almost must be tyus and sheed. I don't think quinn is enough of a threat to consistently break down defenses on his own, and matt i guess could be, but he's so unknown right now. could we go with just tyus as the premier PG and play quinn off him? perhaps that could be the main, and that gives you flexibility with quinn as another shooter/ball handler...but I don't think quinn is complete enough a player right now to give us an elite combo....certainly pretty good, but not elite.

So i think whichever way we go, there are some big question marks....consistency, inexperience, drive-ability, defense....so best case:

tyus is everything he's hyped up to be, and quinn playing off the ball allows him to do what he does best (passing/ballhandling) without having to worry about breaking down the defense against pressure....he then only takes good threes, makes a ton of them. Rasheed having the pressure off him doesn't feel like he needs to carry the team at times (mercer...) gives us a deadly combo when we can play any of them all the time. Matt turns into dwyane wade over the summer and teams need to double team him while HE's on defense

worst case:
tyus has a big toe injury, quinn proves he has the same faults that have led us to two first round exits in 3 years, he gets benched in favor of matt and sheed, and gets so angry that he decides to transfer for his last semester of eligibility to UNC, where he goes on to win a national championship. Sheed feels he has to lead the team in every category, including turnovers and blocked shots, and the rest of the team puts of 25-trillions every night. matt doesn't like his lack of playing time last year and his lack of usage this year, and transfers to kentucky, where he raises their APR high enough that the rest of the one and dones don't even need to take any classes for the next 3 years

reality: probably somewhere in the middle. but there's a HUGE range, and we simply can't know where it will fall. as I've said, though, I believe that Jon's increased role will be a boon for those guys at the guard position....he knew more than anything, how to run an offense in all situations. and I hope the guys can learn that from him.

[jimsumner]

I think your best-case scenarios are a lot more likely that your worst-case. :)

Some thoughts on Tyus. I have a general aversion to no-defense all-star games. I thought the Brand classic was cringe-inducing. But we have a recent Tyus Jones sighting in a real game, the U.S. v. International (Hoops Summit). Both teams took this seriously because it actually mattered. Jones was a pass-first point most of the contest. But with the game on the line, he absolutely took over, five times taking the ball into the lane, five times scoring. It was his ball game.

And there are plenty of other data points not involving Minnesota prep ball. Jones averaged 5.4 apg in leading the US to an 8-0 gold medal in the 2012 FIBA U-17 world championships.

To be sure, Cook also had comparable international success and hasn't been able to leverage that into college dominance, although I think I have a higher opinion of his play than do you; you certainly can't pin the 2012 Lehigh loss on Cook. He wasn't even in the rotation that season.

And I think Sulaimon learned some valuable lessons about preparation and focus this season. If he has, he's an All-America-level talent.

I've stated elsewhere that I suspect Matt Jones will be in the small-forward rotation, barring injuries. But he's an option at the 2 if needed.

So, I feel pretty good about the guard spot. Very good, as a matter of fact.

That doesn't mean I don't have some real concerns. Can Jefferson develop a mid-range face-up jumper? If not, how do to he and Okafor co-exist inside? If Winslow really is the best option at the 3, that gives Duke three freshmen starters. Is that one too many? Can M. Jones recover his shooting mojo? Can Okafor avoid the fresh-foul-trouble-woes that so often plague first-year big men?

So, work to be done. But I feel pretty good about things going into the summer.



I think they could be, and I think they might not be. I think there is still a lot of unknown there.

While cook is mostly a known entity at this point, will he improve on his weaknesses moving into senior year?
Sulaimon is what he is, but needs to show he can contribute with consistency. He had excellent games (cuse part 1, uva part 1, and to some degree, mercer), and some poor games (uva, clemson ND, games 3-10)....when he's on, he can break down defenses and get to the lane...when he's not, he disappears....we need more of the former....I think he needs to add another 3-4 points per game.

matt certainly showed moments of promise, but also only scored a grand total of 20 points in ACC play. I certainly think he could turn out to be huge, but in the end, I think there is simply too much talent and experience in front of him this year.

Tyus is shows promise in his HS games...I loved his play in the McD game, only putting up 10 points, but chopping up defenses so well that if the defenders were onions, we'd all be in tears, and then finding his teammates.....I thought it was impressive for a bunch of guys thrown together for an allstar game, that he was able to find them with ease. but will he be able to do that in the college level in whatever system K puts in? we simply don't know. Is he kyrie 2.0? is he even close? I hope so.


so who will be the guards? if we want combos like boatright/napier, smith/siva, lamb/teague, I think it almost must be tyus and sheed. I don't think quinn is enough of a threat to consistently break down defenses on his own, and matt i guess could be, but he's so unknown right now. could we go with just tyus as the premier PG and play quinn off him? perhaps that could be the main, and that gives you flexibility with quinn as another shooter/ball handler...but I don't think quinn is complete enough a player right now to give us an elite combo....certainly pretty good, but not elite.

So i think whichever way we go, there are some big question marks....consistency, inexperience, drive-ability, defense....so best case:

tyus is everything he's hyped up to be, and quinn playing off the ball allows him to do what he does best (passing/ballhandling) without having to worry about breaking down the defense against pressure....he then only takes good threes, makes a ton of them. Rasheed having the pressure off him doesn't feel like he needs to carry the team at times (mercer...) gives us a deadly combo when we can play any of them all the time. Matt turns into dwyane wade over the summer and teams need to double team him while HE's on defense

worst case:
tyus has a big toe injury, quinn proves he has the same faults that have led us to two first round exits in 3 years, he gets benched in favor of matt and sheed, and gets so angry that he decides to transfer for his last semester of eligibility to UNC, where he goes on to win a national championship. Sheed feels he has to lead the team in every category, including turnovers and blocked shots, and the rest of the team puts of 25-trillions every night. matt doesn't like his lack of playing time last year and his lack of usage this year, and transfers to kentucky, where he raises their APR high enough that the rest of the one and dones don't even need to take any classes for the next 3 years

reality: probably somewhere in the middle. but there's a HUGE range, and we simply can't know where it will fall. as I've said, though, I believe that Jon's increased role will be a boon for those guys at the guard position....he knew more than anything, how to run an offense in all situations. and I hope the guys can learn that from him.

[SoCalDukeFan]

so the rotation predictions are currently being beaten to death in the other thread (as I'm sure they will be from now until next February...) I wanted to muse on some other things that I think are not necessarily related to exactly who will get how many minutes....since I find such discussions quite droll......anyway

1) we will have a 7-8 man rotation....I don't know who the 8 will be, and neither does anyone else here. but every year we have new players, and every year many here think "oh we will be the deepest in the country" and every year we only play 7-8 of them big minutes in big games, and every year we will blame losses on "xyz should be playing more!" and say "xyz will transfer for sure!" nothing will change next year...the details are unimportant....heck we could make a good madlibs about this!

2) we'll reevaluate the way we play defense....and it won't be zone. K hinted as much when he said after the mercer game that they needed to go back and reevaluate what they do on the less glamorous end of the floor. I normally consider K much less flexible in his defensive game planning as opposed to offense, but I think he' had his hand forced. losing to mercer is unacceptable for the players, this program, and most importantly to K (note, i'm using the literal definition of unacceptable....in that they won't accept it as standard for the program....not as many of you will assume...that i think it's unacceptable from a fans perspective....i really don't think the team cares what I think....as well they shouldn't...they don't owe me anything...especially concern over what I think is acceptable)....If I had to guess, I think we'll see a more compact defense, ala 2010, and more work on going through screens rather than switching nearly everything....why? two reasons: 1)not switching as much is easier, and we need something freshman can learn and play well from the get-go....we don't have 4 years with these guys....it's much easier to say "hey you, guard him. always" we have plenty of athletes who can do that....if they lose a step because they're wondering whether to switch or not....we'll lose games 2)much moreso than this last year, we have a team where some players simply will not be able to guard others....with jahlil and marshall, and even to a lesser degree amile, will stay with their bigs, and potentially out big them. I expect marshall to continue his hedging, as he has gotten pretty good at it

3) having scheyer play a bigger role on the coaching staff will allow us to better execute in pressure situations...late in shot clock and late in game...we all know we would go through long stretches with terrible shots and few points late in games....evidenced by the huge runs teams would make in many of our losses...since '10, K has admittedly moved to a much more free flowing "pro-style" offense....the goal being to let the players make plays....and this works great a lot of the time, but it breaks down when you don't have NBA players all over the floor and are put under pressure...you don't have a "play" to fall back on...and the offense grinds to a halt...you end up with "black hole" type possessions, where whomever happened to have the ball was going to try to take the shot...come hell or high water. This worked often when it was jabari or hood....but then other teams realized they could work hard to deny those two the ball, and then....nobody else on the floor could consistently make a play....and since we were standing around in iso....it was brick city. Jon was an expert executing offense in these situations. expect him to work with the guards at what to do in these situations to ensure good shots are gotten

4) duke won't win the national championship. why? couple reasons. first, the odds aren't in our favor...give me any team against the field, and I'm taking the field. second, I'm not sure we have the guard play to get it done. I haven't been sold on quinn, as he seems largely the same player he was 2 years ago (could he improve? absotluely. hope he does...we could use it....but as a senior, i'm in "show me" mode....), and I believe a lot then weighs on tyrus jones....and though he seems like a great player, I feel with few exceptions, experienced PG play is a huge asset in march

1. Agree, of course the fans will want K to go deeper. I also expect that the roles of each player in the rotation will be well defined by the start of the ACC season and that the rotation will be pretty well set by then.

2. I certainly hope K modifies the defense to something the a team with 2 or 3 frosh in the rotation can execute. Not sure about the specific changes.

3. Again I hope so.

4. I think T. Jones, Rasheed and Cook are potentially an excellent backcourt. If Parker would have come back, most pundits would have us as the favorite for the NC with the same guards. Not sure of the point about the odds as no one in his right mind would make an even money bet on any one team against the field.

The main challenge for next year will be to get the team to play as a team. I am not sure that even late in this season everyone knew their role on offense and defense and just what was going on. Late in the season Rasheed was reported to yell at Parker - "Run the MF play." I think that the confusion brought about by a different offense centered around 2 new players and lack of communication and teamwork on defense contributed a lot to a season that many found disappointing. Next year there will be new players in major roles and a different offense, so hopefully lessons learned from this year will help next year.

SoCal

[Troublemaker]

if we want combos like boatright/napier, smith/siva, lamb/teague

Looking back, were any of these backcourts that highly thought of a year before they won the championship? Or heck, even a month before they won?

I mean, I'm sure people thought they were good backcourts, but I'm also equally sure they weren't any more highly-regarded than what Duke seemingly has right now. The difference is those guys you listed already won, and so we mythologize them a bit in our minds. Duke fans definitely have experience with this. In April 2009, we were wondering whether Scheyer could be a Final Four point guard (if John Wall didn't sign with us). We had even more doubts about Nolan Smith since he hadn't embarked on his breakout junior season yet. In April 2010, Scheyer/Smith became a championship backcourt.

Put another way: Championship backcourts tend to look a lot like what Duke seemingly has right now a year before they go on to win the championship. Sometimes they look worse than what Duke seemingly has right now, actually.

Put yet another way: What team looks like it has a stronger backcourt heading into next season? The list is going to be extremely short.

[CDu]

Looking back, were any of these backcourts that highly thought of a year before they won the championship? Or heck, even a month before they won?

I mean, I'm sure people thought they were good backcourts, but I'm also equally sure they weren't any more highly-regarded than what Duke seemingly has right now. The difference is those guys you listed already won, and so we mythologize them a bit in our minds. Duke fans definitely have experience with this. In April 2009, we were wondering whether Scheyer could be a Final Four point guard (if John Wall didn't sign with us). We had even more doubts about Nolan Smith since he hadn't embarked on his breakout junior season yet. In April 2010, Scheyer/Smith became a championship backcourt.

Put another way: Championship backcourts tend to look a lot like what Duke seemingly has right now a year before they go on to win the championship. Sometimes they look worse than what Duke seemingly has right now, actually.

Put yet another way: What team looks like it has a stronger backcourt heading into next season? The list is going to be extremely short.

Smith, Siva, and Napier were very highly thought-of going into their championship seasons. People thought more of them than our backcourt this year. But I agree with your general point. Nobody would have thought that UConn would win the title this year, perhaps even as halftime of the Final Four (though that was more due to their frontcourt than their backcourt). To predict who will win next year now (or even next March) is just really, really hard to do.

[jimsumner]

Let's make this more Duke-specific. After 2009, Duke lost Gerald Henderson, Elliot Williams and Marty Pocius. Jon Scheyer had played only briefly at point and more than a few critics thought he was out-of position, too slow to play the point at a high level for an entire season. His running mate was oft-injured underachiever Nolan Smith. The only guard backup was guy who should have been in high school.

How highly-regarded was that backcourt going into 2010? Lots of non-believers, lots of questions, lots of doubt.

And we know how that turned out.

[Troublemaker]

Smith, Siva, and Napier were very highly thought-of going into their championship seasons. People thought more of them than our backcourt this year.

Right. But were the backcourt pairings uh_no listed (or if we extend to backcourt trios) any more highly-regarded going into their championship seasons than TJones/Sulaimon/Cook are heading into next season, which seems to be the more relevant comparison. I don't think so. Maybe Siva/Smith were, but Napier/Boatright and especially Lamb/Teague were not. (Teague was always regarded as the weak link on that UK team.) In September, when college basketball previews get written, and pundits try to rank the best backcourts in the country, I am certain Duke's will be in the top 5. Maybe even #1.

[Troublemaker]

Let's make this more Duke-specific. After 2009, Duke lost Gerald Henderson, Elliot Williams and Marty Pocius. Jon Scheyer had played only briefly at point and more than a few critics thought he was out-of position, too slow to play the point at a high level for an entire season. His running mate was oft-injured underachiever Nolan Smith. The only guard backup was guy who should have been in high school.

How highly-regarded was that backcourt going into 2010? Lots of non-believers, lots of questions, lots of doubt.

And we know how that turned out.

Welcome back Jim! Agreed totally; see my post #7. Always glad when I'm sharing the same thoughts as you!

[uh_no]

Let's make this more Duke-specific. After 2009, Duke lost Gerald Henderson, Elliot Williams and Marty Pocius. Jon Scheyer had played only briefly at point and more than a few critics thought he was out-of position, too slow to play the point at a high level for an entire season. His running mate was oft-injured underachiever Nolan Smith. The only guard backup was guy who should have been in high school.

How highly-regarded was that backcourt going into 2010? Lots of non-believers, lots of questions, lots of doubt.

And we know how that turned out.

heck even in march when we got beaten by maryland.

as much as we can muse, it's impossible to say how our backcourt will be next year. people cite the 2010 team all the time as evidence that of what might probably happen...heck all year this year people were saying "we lost in january and march in 2010 and won a national championship and zoubek turned into a beast........plumlee will turn into a beast THIS year after our loss to <team> and we'll win again!"

the problem is the 2010 team is effectively an exception, I think....and as much as we harp (myself included) on how a title was won in the past, i think just attempting to have those qualities that past teams have had and then expecting success is a fools errand. How many teams had great guard play last year and didn't win? quite a few.

That said, we know that the backcourt could turn around this year, and I think we're all hopeful for that, but i'm not sure we can expect them to do so simply because the 2010 team did.


Looking back, were any of these backcourts that highly thought of a year before they won the championship? Or heck, even a month before they won?

To put it shortly, yes.

connecticut didn't get postseason attention last year (for obvious reasons) but their backcourt was lauded all year, and was generally considered one of the top guard duos in the country all year
smith/siva were coming off a final four year....people knew they were plenty good
kemba was a different story....mostly because he was so good that year you could have played him with a traffic cone as a backcourt partner and the traffic cone would have averaged double digits

so I think in most cases, you know who is going to have great backcourts and great frontcourts, mostly because of experience and who's returning...and in some cases because of star freshman....but even in UK's case, we know that is not infallible. I think my point is that we have a lot of unknowns...as jim points out, we can certainly be great, as evidenced by other teams that have become great. It's just hard for me to conclude at this point that it will definitively be the case.

[Troublemaker]

I think my point is that we have a lot of unknowns...as jim points out, we can certainly be great, as evidenced by other teams that have become great. It's just hard for me to conclude at this point that it will definitively be the case.

Well, we're in agreement here. It's just that, to me, Duke's chances of having a great backcourt appear to be as good as just about any other team in the country. If you concede that, we'll be in total agreement.

[SupaDave]

Honestly I think the whole season boils down to Rasheed's development. He's certain to be the lead dog in our offense next year and I think the team should take on a little bit of his persona.

One of the things I said quietly this year and is that we were too nice. Picking up opponents and what not. I'd like to see a little less of that - a little more Laettner. I'll even take a tech for doing push ups after a dunk...

Oh and speaking of zone - will we learn how to play against it this year? We had a few moments but otherwise it sent the team into a tailspin whenever they saw it. I think this will be Okafor's biggest impact. If he becomes a zone buster in the high post (maybe even Jefferson as well) then I think this team has a very high ceiling.

[dyedwab]

Oh and speaking of zone - will we learn how to play against it this year? We had a few moments but otherwise it sent the team into a tailspin whenever they saw it.

Which is actually a really big point and larger then just playing against the zone. Even late in the season, we'd see a zone be flummoxed for multiple possession, as though we hadn't been seeing it all year. This year we had a hard time adjusting and processing new information about how we needed to play. That needs to change in a big way, first and foremost on the defensive end, but also on offense....

[lotusland]

I agree with OP that Quinn is likely the key. I haven't heard K say make any statements to the effect that Jones will be given the keys or the team will be built around him like we did about Kyrie, Jabari, Hood and Okafor so, at this point, there is no reason to think he'll move ahead of Quinn IMO. I thought last year that Quinn's performance would be a key factor in how far Duke went and, unfortunately, I think it was. Early on he looked like he was poised for a breakout year but he lost his shooting mojo and the rest of his game seemed to follow. We'll need him to shoot well next year but hopefully he'll also do a better job of feeding the post, breaking the press and keeping his man in front of him.

I've noticed a few things recently about former Duke championship teams from watching you tube replays of old games. In the 91 semifinal against UNLV and the championship against Kansas I was struck by how well Hurley delivered the ball to Laettner in the post. there was real familiarity that was evident. Hurley would deliver passes off the dribble knowing where Christian would be and Laettner would turn, receive the pass and go up in one motion as if he knew when and where Bobby would deliver it. They really scorched UNLV's "amoeba" zone at times.

The 2001 team, on the other hand, really got up the floor quickly before the defense was set a lot of the times. They rarely relied on JWill to break the pressure on his own and then initiate the offense against a set half-court defense. Whoever rebounded the ball, whether Boozer, Battier or Dunleavy, would turn and find a teammate ahead. It wasn't always a fast break but there was a lot less dribbling and a lot more passing to advance the ball up-court.

I think both teams benefitted from playing together for 2-3 years so I'm not sure next year's team can be expected to replicate their success. Hopefully we won't see Quinn or Sheed dribbling the shot clock away as much as this year. It will be good to have Okafor to protect the rim but, if we allow penetration as easily as last year, he's going to pick up a lot of fouls. I don't see us creating a lot of turnovers from pressure or over-playing so I hope we pack it in a bit and focus on making them shoot over us and rebounding the ball next year.

[_Gary]

I agree with OP that Quinn is likely the key. I haven't heard K say make any statements to the effect that Jones will be given the keys or the team will be built around him like we did about Kyrie, Jabari, Hood and Okafor so, at this point, there is no reason to think he'll move ahead of Quinn IMO.

I couldn't disagree more. I will be as shocked as I've ever been as a Duke fan if Tyus Jones is not running the point from the get-go. Honestly, I think it's a no-brainer, in spite of Quinn being a senior. Now, I won't be shocked to see a starting backcourt of Tyus and Quinn together, with Rasheed playing the 3. Won't be thrilled with it either, but that's primarily because I think we'll give up too much size at all three of those positions. But I can't see any way that Tyus doesn't start from day one. He's that good, imho.

[JPtheGame]

Honestly I think the whole season boils down to Rasheed's development. He's certain to be the lead dog in our offense next year and I think the team should take on a little bit of his persona.

One of the things I said quietly this year and is that we were too nice. Picking up opponents and what not. I'd like to see a little less of that - a little more Laettner. I'll even take a tech for doing push ups after a dunk...

Oh and speaking of zone - will we learn how to play against it this year? We had a few moments but otherwise it sent the team into a tailspin whenever they saw it. I think this will be Okafor's biggest impact. If he becomes a zone buster in the high post (maybe even Jefferson as well) then I think this team has a very high ceiling.

I think K has already indicated who will be the top dog next year. Everyone is going to play off of Okafor. I hope Rasheed has a huge year but the lane will not be cleared for him to go one on one like he apt to at the end of shot clocks. Duke will put the ball in the post every chance it gets as Big jah is the only clearly superior talent they will have each night. The fun part is that Mjones and Quinn have shown the ability to knock down kick out 3's and Amile and Rasheed will get a lot of looks rolling to the rim if Jah has even a basic understanding of how to pass out of double teams.

[uh_no]

I think K has already indicated who will be the top dog next year. Everyone is going to play off of Okafor. I hope Rasheed has a huge year but the lane will not be cleared for him to go one on one like he apt to at the end of shot clocks. Duke will put the ball in the post every chance it gets as Big jah is the only clearly superior talent they will have each night. The fun part is that Mjones and Quinn have shown the ability to knock down kick out 3's and Amile and Rasheed will get a lot of looks rolling to the rim if Jah has even a basic understanding of how to pass out of double teams.

for me, the question is, will we be able to reliably get jahlil the ball. Last year we had trouble at times getting mason the ball in position to score, and more so when ryan was out. will amile or whomever is at the across jahlil be enough of a threat that teams can't just sandwich jahlil the entire game.

the other question is minutes. we got a freshman big man, and most likely he won't go more than 25....and might even be limited to 20 depending on how good a shape he's in....i'm not saying he's out of shape, just that with freshman big men, you just don't know how much they'll be able to go. So for those 15-20 minutes when he isn't on the floor, he won't be making an impact. For all we know, he could get himself in foul trouble. So it will be critical for him to remain on the floor.

also of concern: how much will the offense have to change when he's not on the floor? obviously marshall isn't jahlil....but will he be able to serve as enough of a shadow that the offense can funtion at least similarly? or will we effectively need to install two offenses....one with jahlil, and one without.

[Kedsy]

I think K has already indicated who will be the top dog next year. Everyone is going to play off of Okafor. I hope Rasheed has a huge year but the lane will not be cleared for him to go one on one like he apt to at the end of shot clocks. Duke will put the ball in the post every chance it gets as Big jah is the only clearly superior talent they will have each night.

How much have you seen Jahlil play? On what do you base your assertion that he'll be the "only clearly superior talent" on Duke's team? You don't think any of the big men on other teams might be almost as good as "Big jah"?


The fun part is that Mjones and Quinn have shown the ability to knock down kick out 3's and Amile and Rasheed will get a lot of looks rolling to the rim if Jah has even a basic understanding of how to pass out of double teams.

Matt Jones shot 14% on three-pointers this past season. So I'd suggest he has not yet "shown the ability to knock down kick out 3's" in college.


for me, the question is, will we be able to reliably get jahlil the ball.

If we're going to assume that Jahlil is as good as advertised, why not Tyus. Supposedly he's really good at feeding the post.

[uh_no]

If we're going to assume that Jahlil is as good as advertised, why not Tyus. Supposedly he's really good at feeding the post.

I'm making no assumptions, simply pointing out that there are two halves to the big man game: having a big man who can put himself in position to score and then execute, and having guards who can get him the ball in those positions.

all indications point to us having those things.

[Troublemaker]

the other question is minutes. we got a freshman big man, and most likely he won't go more than 25....and might even be limited to 20 depending on how good a shape he's in....i'm not saying he's out of shape, just that with freshman big men, you just don't know how much they'll be able to go. So for those 15-20 minutes when he isn't on the floor, he won't be making an impact. For all we know, he could get himself in foul trouble. So it will be critical for him to remain on the floor.

This would be quite a change of pace if true. But somehow, I think Coach K will find a way to get his best player to play 30+ mpg. I find it difficult to believe that the discussions on DBR about Jahlil's minutes next season won't revolve around whether he plays too many minutes. That's just the way things seem to go, year in and year out. (Yes, this means I believe Coach K will successfully coach Jahlil to stay out of foul trouble, and Duke's strength & conditioning team will have Jahlil in good enough shape to play 30 mpg.)



also of concern: how much will the offense have to change when he's not on the floor? obviously marshall isn't jahlil....but will he be able to serve as enough of a shadow that the offense can funtion at least similarly? or will we effectively need to install two offenses....one with jahlil, and one without.

Yeah, we will run different sets depending on whether Okafor's in the game. I'm sure we'll handle multiple sets just fine. On my DVR right now is the Senior Night game against UNC, the only game I haven't deleted yet from this past season. I watched it last week and noticed we ran two completely different offenses depending on whether the seniors were in or not. Both worked magnificently. I don't think it's out of the ordinary for most college basketball teams to be able to run different sets in a single game. Having quality PG play, which we'll have with Tyus and a senior Quinn, will also help with that.

[Kedsy]

This would be quite a change of pace if true. But somehow, I think Coach K will find a way to get his best player to play 30+ mpg.

If he does, I'm pretty sure it would be the first time during Coach K's time at Duke that a freshman center averaged more than 25 mpg for the full season. Which is why I agree with those who expect there to be approximately 15 mpg of playing time for Marshall (or somebody other than Jahlil, anyway).

[Troublemaker]

If he does, I'm pretty sure it would be the first time during Coach K's time at Duke that a freshman center averaged more than 25 mpg for the full season. Which is why I agree with those who expect there to be approximately 15 mpg of playing time for Marshall (or somebody other than Jahlil, anyway).

Something's got to give for sure. Looking at Elton's freshman year game logs (http://goduke.statsgeek.com/basketball-m/players/logs.php?playerid=42&season=1997-98), I think there is better support for your position than mine. However, it would've been interesting to see how his minutes would've progressed had he not gotten injured. Pre-injury, he did play a season-high 29 minutes against Duke's two toughest non-conference opponents, Arizona and Michigan. Then he broke his foot before conference season started. I wonder if his minutes would've progressed to the point where he would've averaged 30mpg in conference play if he didn't break his foot. Hopefully Jahlil plays a full 40 games next season and we find out. It's "best player plays 30+mpg" vs "freshman center plays <=25mpg." Something's gotta give.

[JPtheGame]

How much have you seen Jahlil play? On what do you base your assertion that he'll be the "only clearly superior talent" on Duke's team? You don't think any of the big men on other teams might be almost as good as "Big jah"?

Matt Jones shot 14% on three-pointers this past season. So I'd suggest he has not yet "shown the ability to knock down kick out 3's" in college.

If we're going to assume that Jahlil is as good as advertised, why not Tyus. Supposedly he's really good at feeding the post.

I've only watched jah twice in person and i'm not a scout so Im easily discredited based on resume. Having said that, I do have eyes that work. Jah is a beast. He's 6'10+ with a 7ft+ wingspan. He's weighs a ton but is nimble with polished post moves. He holds a basketball like a normal human holds a softball. Even though Duke loves to say players do not have positions, I think its nice to see a person who looks the part, if you will. He's a true center and he will be more talented than anyone who guards him on any given night. If you can come up with a list of possible match up problems, it will be a very short one. Im tired of 6'3 sf's and centers who are great in the open floor but shoot fadeway runners in the half court when they arent busy traveling. Jah is a kid we can ride and I expect he will get as many minutes and touches as he can handle.

As for Mjones, he was recruited as a shooter and asked to do different things last year. My last concern is whether or not MJones can hit an open kick out 3. http://espn.go.com/college-sports/basketball/recruiting/player/evaluation/_/id/104946/matt-jones
http://scouthoops.scout.com/a.z?s=75&p=8&c=1&nid=4927425
http://future150.com/hs/basketball-profiles/matt-jones-sg-2013

[tommy]

for me, the question is, will we be able to reliably get jahlil the ball. Last year we had trouble at times getting mason the ball in position to score, and more so when ryan was out. will amile or whomever is at the across jahlil be enough of a threat that teams can't just sandwich jahlil the entire game.

the other question is minutes. we got a freshman big man, and most likely he won't go more than 25....and might even be limited to 20 depending on how good a shape he's in....i'm not saying he's out of shape, just that with freshman big men, you just don't know how much they'll be able to go. So for those 15-20 minutes when he isn't on the floor, he won't be making an impact. For all we know, he could get himself in foul trouble. So it will be critical for him to remain on the floor.

also of concern: how much will the offense have to change when he's not on the floor? obviously marshall isn't jahlil....but will he be able to serve as enough of a shadow that the offense can funtion at least similarly? or will we effectively need to install two offenses....one with jahlil, and one without.

I will be very surprised, and frankly quite annoyed, if Jahlil Okafor can't play more than half a college game because he's not in the physical condition to do so. I really don't think that will happen, and it shouldn't, because there is simply no reason -- zero -- for a scholarship athlete to not be in peak physical condition, barring his coming off some sort of injury. These guys hoop every day, and have for years and years, and while they're stepping up in class in college, they've simply got to be in good enough physical condition to play as many minutes as their coach needs them to. That being said, as he's the #1 recruit in the nation, and is being added to a team where there is a clear position of need, I don't see why he shouldn't get 30+ minutes per game. It's a different world than when some of the other freshman bigs being discussed in the thread played. Those teams were usually more veteran squads, such that the frosh center in question could be brought along a bit more slowly when necessary. But now freshmen, especially those ranked as highly as Jahlil, routinely are centerpieces of their respective teams, and play the minutes accordingly. Why shouldn't he?

And no, I don't think the offense will function similarly with Marshall spelling Jahlil. Marshall is simply not in the same universe as is Jahlil in terms of his hands, his feet, his development of post moves, his ability to hold his position, his coordination, or lots of other things. The offense is likely to run through Jahlil a lot. It will never run through Marshall

[uh_no]

I will be very surprised, and frankly quite annoyed, if Jahlil Okafor can't play more than half a college game because he's not in the physical condition to do so. I really don't think that will happen, and it shouldn't, because there is simply no reason -- zero -- for a scholarship athlete to not be in peak physical condition, barring his coming off some sort of injury. These guys hoop every day, and have for years and years, and while they're stepping up in class in college, they've simply got to be in good enough physical condition to play as many minutes as their coach needs them to. That being said, as he's the #1 recruit in the nation, and is being added to a team where there is a clear position of need, I don't see why he shouldn't get 30+ minutes per game.

we just came off a year where the #1 recruit was having fatigue issues late in games.....

as has been pointed out, 30 minutes would be a record for a freshman center at duke.

[tommy]

we just came off a year where the #1 recruit was having fatigue issues late in games.....

And to the degree that it was actually happening due to his lack of conditioning -- which I frankly am not sure was the issue -- it would have been appalling. Same with Okafor. In my mind, there's just no reason or excuse for it, period.

[Kedsy]

I've only watched jah twice in person and i'm not a scout so Im easily discredited based on resume. Having said that, I do have eyes that work. Jah is a beast. He's 6'10+ with a 7ft+ wingspan. He's weighs a ton but is nimble with polished post moves. He holds a basketball like a normal human holds a softball.

The thing is, in high school, Jahlil rarely came up against people his size, and it's easy to be a beast against much smaller players. But almost every college center is at least 6'9+ with a 7ft+ wingspan. Jahlil's weight (265 or so) is more than a lot of college centers, but it's not outrageously big, either. Almost half the teams in the ACC this past season (7 out of 15) had starting centers weighing 250+. And at least two of the centers who didn't weigh that much were significantly taller than Jahlil.

He's rated the #1 recruit in the country, and clearly he has good post moves and footwork, but I don't think you can call him a "clearly superior talent" until you see him play regularly against players his own size.


As for Mjones, he was recruited as a shooter and asked to do different things last year. My last concern is whether or not MJones can hit an open kick out 3.

I'm aware that Matt had a reputation as a shooter coming out of high school. I'm also aware that as a college freshman he showed unorthodox form and shot pretty poorly from pretty much everywhere, especially three-range. It may be your last concern, but he has not yet shown any ability to hit that shot with a college defender bearing down on him. Maybe the game slows down for him this season and he regains his high school shooting success, or maybe not. No way to tell at this point. Frankly, there's no way to tell whether Matt sees the court very much next season or not.

[Lar77]

I agree with Kedsy on Okafor's minutes. The college game is very different from even high level high school games. It is difficult for centers to adjust to the physical requirements. Not impossible, but difficult. If Okafor averages more than 25 minutes a game, I'll be pleasantly surprised, although I expect MP3 will continue to develop and contribute. Jefferson with a mid-range shot (which I thought he had in high school) will be a welcome sight as well. Interestingly, our weak spot may be on the wing, where we have a lot of potential but not a lot of experience (Rasheed being the exception).

My question is not with the players but with the coaching. Last year's team didn't have "it" in the last 5 minutes, our defense was mediocre all year, and we got flustered against junk zones. Coach K said that he needed to take a step back and evaluate what he and his staff need to do better.

It's almost May and a long time before our first game. I expect this thread will be enormous by then.

[Saratoga2]

The thing is, in high school, Jahlil rarely came up against people his size, and it's easy to be a beast against much smaller players. But almost every college center is at least 6'9+ with a 7ft+ wingspan. Jahlil's weight (265 or so) is more than a lot of college centers, but it's not outrageously big, either. Almost half the teams in the ACC this past season (7 out of 15) had starting centers weighing 250+. And at least two of the centers who didn't weigh that much were significantly taller than Jahlil.

He's rated the #1 recruit in the country, and clearly he has good post moves and footwork, but I don't think you can call him a "clearly superior talent" until you see him play regularly against players his own size.



I'm aware that Matt had a reputation as a shooter coming out of high school. I'm also aware that as a college freshman he showed unorthodox form and shot pretty poorly from pretty much everywhere, especially three-range. It may be your last concern, but he has not yet shown any ability to hit that shot with a college defender bearing down on him. Maybe the game slows down for him this season and he regains his high school shooting success, or maybe not. No way to tell at this point. Frankly, there's no way to tell whether Matt sees the court very much next season or not.

Your right expressing doubt on the hype of any freshman player before he goes against the higher level of competition. I think Jahlil is a superior talent but he will be against much stiffer competition next season and he will also face double teams. I am in the camp that believes 25 minutes for a freshman center is about right. Center has got to be a very tiring position with all the banging inside to get position. Twenty five minutes may also be about right when you consider potential foul issues. Jahlil is going to be a big upgrade for us but he will still only be a freshman.

Matt clearly was a very good defender as a freshman but did not live up to expectations offensively. I agree that the game needs to slow down for him. He has the potential to be a scorer so maybe with a year of experience he will have turned the corner enough to be a two way player.

Semi also came in with a reputation as a shooter but he got so little PT we never saw enough to judge. He did hit a couple of shots and showed promise in the few minutes he got. I would have played him instead of Josh later in the year since Josh clearly was not having a favorable impact on games, possibly due to the new rules. Semi's lack of play was never really explained last year although the coaches had to see issues in practice that kept him on the bench. Lets hope that they are developing the kid as he has the size and athleticism to sub at the 3 or 4 position.

[CDu]

Your right expressing doubt on the hype of any freshman player before he goes against the higher level of competition. I think Jahlil is a superior talent but he will be against much stiffer competition next season and he will also face double teams. I am in the camp that believes 25 minutes for a freshman center is about right. Center has got to be a very tiring position with all the banging inside to get position. Twenty five minutes may also be about right when you consider potential foul issues. Jahlil is going to be a big upgrade for us but he will still only be a freshman.

Matt clearly was a very good defender as a freshman but did not live up to expectations offensively. I agree that the game needs to slow down for him. He has the potential to be a scorer so maybe with a year of experience he will have turned the corner enough to be a two way player.

Semi also came in with a reputation as a shooter but he got so little PT we never saw enough to judge. He did hit a couple of shots and showed promise in the few minutes he got. I would have played him instead of Josh later in the year since Josh clearly was not having a favorable impact on games, possibly due to the new rules. Semi's lack of play was never really explained last year although the coaches had to see issues in practice that kept him on the bench. Lets hope that they are developing the kid as he has the size and athleticism to sub at the 3 or 4 position.

As has been noted in another thread, it's dangerous to assume any freshman will live up to the expectations placed on them coming out of high school.

Exhibit 1: Josh McRoberts. #1 recruit in his class, "can't miss" talent. He played solidly as a role player on the #1 team, then was 2nd Team All-ACC (second on the team in points and assists and led the team in rebounds and blocks) as a sophomore. Yet because of the inflated expectations, he gets bashed regularly by many on this board.

Exhibit 2: Greg Paulus: #1 PG and top-10 recruit in his class, "can't miss" playmaker. He played solidly as a role player on the #1 team, then was 2nd Team All-ACC as a junior. But his PG play was very shaky/poor, and as such the staff had to redesign the offense to mitigate the need for a PG, and by his senior year he was benched altogether. Yet because of the inflated expectations, he gets bashed regularly by many on this board (note: these two are foils for one another; those who bash McRoberts usually defend Paulus, and vice versa).

There are countless other stories like this. Let's hope that Jones and Okafor don't fall victim to this as well. But let's also not proclaim that they won't; it's always a possibility.

What we can say with some confidence is that both Jones and Okafor will play as much as they can. Historically speaking, all of Coach K's top-5 recruits played major minutes (usually as starters) as freshmen. That hasn't always meant they've starred, but they've played major minutes. I think we can safely expect that Okafor will see ~20-25 mpg, and I think we can safely assume that Jones will see at least 25 mpg. Whether or or not they are dominant is far from a certainty.

[ArtVandelay]

In light of Jabari and Rodney's departure, I'll bite on offering some musings about next year's team:

1) In some ways, I think next year may be very similar to this past season. On paper, it looks like a potentially very talented team, but there are serious question marks about: (a) leadership; (b) cohesion when introducing lots of new players into the system; and (c) relying on very young players to adapt quickly to the Duke system, particularly on defense.

2) Next year also will be similar to this past season from a fan perspective in that the team will be something of an unknown quantity. Lots of new players without really knowing what to expect from all of them. Definitely a different feeling that the prior few seasons, where you had something of a nucleus with the Plumlees, Kelly, Curry, etc. for several seasons in a row.

3) I am probably a bit less optimistic than many seem to be about next year. Yes, the upside is high, but we just had a pretty average season by Duke standards, and we are losing our two best players by far and several other rotation players. Hopefully the freshmen will be as good as expected or Rasheed or someone else will make "the leap" to the next level, but if those things don't happen, it could be another somewhat disappointing season.

4) On a related point, I am also a bit pessimistic because there is a limited track record for freshman-dominated teams winning national championships or even having really excellent seasons. Some of the recent Kentucky teams obviously would be the point of comparison, or perhaps the Conley-Oden OSU team, but when was the last time Duke was as dependent on freshmen as we will be next year? 2000 seems like a decent comparison, although that team was carried by C-Well elevating his game to ACC POY caliber and Battier taking it to the next level and becoming something resembling the NPOY guy he was in 2001. Can Cook, Sheed, or someone else unexpected (Amile?) make a similar leap? I frankly don't see it, but I guess that is why they call it a leap.

5) Which leads me to my next point, which is just how good will Jones and Okafor be? To cite my prior example, can they be as good as say a Conley-Oden duo? If so, maybe Duke will go far, but I don't think we can count on that level of dominance. It's a rare thing for a freshman big man to be a dominant player from the get-go. Maybe Okafor is that rare guy, but the chances are against it, right?

6) I don't find the rotation and distribution of minutes questions nearly as interesting as others do. Seems to me most of the roles are pretty well-established. One thing that will be key is that regardless of who starts, Cook and T. Jones will play a lot of minutes, which means they will have to play together a lot. Finding ways for the two of them to coexist will be vital. I think the most "interesting" uncertain issue right now is who gets squeezed out of 2/3 rotation? I don't see how K can find a significant amount of minutes for both Justise and M. Jones (unless Justise can play the 4, which I doubt), so I think one of the two will ultimately end up playing a smaller role.

7) Can Amile Jefferson learn to shoot a jump shot and/or a free throw?

[Kedsy]

I am probably a bit less optimistic than many seem to be about next year. Yes, the upside is high, but we just had a pretty average season by Duke standards, and we are losing our two best players by far and several other rotation players.

If there's one thing that we can say about college basketball, it's that how a team performed last season is generally a pretty poor predictor for how the team will perform next season. So I don't entirely buy your logic here.

[ACCBBallFan]

The thing is, in high school, Jahlil rarely came up against people his size, and it's easy to be a beast against much smaller players. But almost every college center is at least 6'9+ with a 7ft+ wingspan. Jahlil's weight (265 or so) is more than a lot of college centers, but it's not outrageously big, either. Almost half the teams in the ACC this past season (7 out of 15) had starting centers weighing 250+. And at least two of the centers who didn't weigh that much were significantly taller than Jahlil.

He's rated the #1 recruit in the country, and clearly he has good post moves and footwork, but I don't think you can call him a "clearly superior talent" until you see him play regularly against players his own size.

The pendulum swings both ways on this. If Jahlil Okafor can get the other team's center into foul trouble, he will be even more effective against their backup center. Ditto for MP3, albeit using a different skill set.

Or it MP3 can sub in a trade 2 fouls on him for 2 against the opposing starting center, they have to play softer when Okafor re-enters the game.

What will be interesting is to see how much pick and roll Duke runs. At least by practicing it more, Duke may learn how to defend it better.

So far most have mused about Okafor establishing poisition down low and Tyus getting him the ball in right spot at right timing and Jahlil doing his thing, but pick and roll may help guys like Tyus, Quinn, and Sheed compensate for their relative lack of size at their respective positions, due to speed and ball handling.

I also think the Oden-Conley comparison has merit.

[COYS]

So far most have mused about Okafor establishing poisition down low and Tyus getting him the ball in right spot at right timing and Jahlil doing his thing, but pick and roll may help guys like Tyus, Quinn, and Sheed compensate for their relative lack of size at their respective positions, due to speed and ball handling.


I expect to see a lot of pick n' roll next year as Tyus seems to be really talented in those situations. However, while watching the Hoops Summit and the all star games, I was impressed with the combination of Jahlil's ability to run the floor for a quick post up and Tyus' ability to hit him with an entry pass immediately, even before setting up the rest of the offense. I hope to see this happen a lot in games. I hate to use anything from UNC as an example of anything except awfulness, but Kendall Marshall and Tyler Zeller used this quite a bit to get easy buckets. Tyus has such a knack for receiving an outlet pass, taking a quick dribble or two, and then hitting a teammate with a pass, even from mid court, that I bet we'll see an easy bucket for Jahlil at least once or twice a game when he posts up his man before the defense or offense is fully set. The combination of pick n' rolls and quick post-ups can help open up the opposing defense even if our three point shooting isn't quite as good next year as it has been in the past.

[ArtVandelay]

If there's one thing that we can say about college basketball, it's that how a team performed last season is generally a pretty poor predictor for how the team will perform next season. So I don't entirely buy your logic here.

No doubt about it, particularly when there is so much roster turn-over. I am just looking at what we have returning and what we have coming in and making an early assessment. I don't proclaim it to be scientific. My point is that if you think the team is going to improve, given the current state of the roster, you sort of have to assume that either the incoming freshman will more than replace the productivity lost with Hood and Parker or that the returning players will progress so much that they will improve on what they did last year and/or replace the other lost pieces (Thornton, Dawkins, and to a lesser extent Hairston). Or you have to hope that some sort of tactical change in playing style or improvement in cohesion not related to merely the talent of the players will improve the outcome. As I think I acknowledged, all of these things are possible, but far from a sure thing. So for that reason, I don't have the same rosy feeling that others have, despite recognizing the upside.

As an aside, I totally agree with your sentiment. One thing that annoys me lately in college basketball is the tendency for pundits and fans to focus too much on the name on the jersey and not the players wearing the jersey. Things like, "Duke likes to pressure the passing lanes and force turnovers," or "Michigan St. is a tough, rebounding team." Sure, those things are generally associated with the team's philosophy and can be true in any given year, but it really depends on roster construction. For instance, this year we kind of sucked at forcing turnovers.

[Kedsy]

My point is that if you think the team is going to improve, given the current state of the roster, you sort of have to assume that either the incoming freshman will more than replace the productivity lost with Hood and Parker or that the returning players will progress so much that they will improve on what they did last year and/or replace the other lost pieces (Thornton, Dawkins, and to a lesser extent Hairston). Or you have to hope that some sort of tactical change in playing style or improvement in cohesion not related to merely the talent of the players will improve the outcome.

There's almost no doubt we'll see a change in Duke's playing style. Last year we had really good 3-point shooting and little post presence and our offense was geared around a wing and a stretch 4. Next year our 3-point shooting is questionable, we should have a strong post presence, and our offense will be geared around a point guard and a center.

And if there's a change of playing style, then I don't think you can ever judge a college team based on the previous year's team minus "productivity lost" and plus newcomers. Or even plus newcomers and expected progress of returnees. It's both more complicated and more simple than that. Complicated in that the value of returning players if they're used in different roles can change dramatically, even beyond the usual off-season improvement. Simple in that I think you can simply look at what you have, rather than trying to factor in what you gained and what you lost.

Looking at next year's team, it seems likely we'll have a top 10 offense. How good our defense will be depends on how quickly the freshmen catch on, but is likely to be an improvement over this past season. Because Justise and Amile aren't strong outside shooters, there should be an interesting trade off between perimeter shooting skill and perimeter size on defense. And I can say all that without factoring in "lost pieces" because we're not really replacing the individual players, we have a whole new team.

[flyingdutchdevil]

There's almost no doubt we'll see a change in Duke's playing style. Last year we had really good 3-point shooting and little post presence and our offense was geared around a wing and a stretch 4. Next year our 3-point shooting is questionable, we should have a strong post presence, and our offense will be geared around a point guard and a center.

Why do you think this? We have Cook and Sulaimon back. Cook shot 37% (and Coach K even said he is a fantastic shooter). Sulaimon shot 41%. Sure - he don't have Hood, Dawkins, or Thornton back, but we may get Semi into the rotation and M. Jones may find his shot (I mean, you can't be called the best shooter in your recruiting class and not shoot, right?). I'll concede that this year's incoming class isn't great at shooting, but we're not sure.

Still, with Cook, Sulaimon, and one of Semi / M. Jones, I'd call 3pt shooting an asset, not a liability.

[Kedsy]

Why do you think this? We have Cook and Sulaimon back. Cook shot 37% (and Coach K even said he is a fantastic shooter). Sulaimon shot 41%. Sure - he don't have Hood, Dawkins, or Thornton back, but we may get Semi into the rotation and M. Jones may find his shot (I mean, you can't be called the best shooter in your recruiting class and not shoot, right?). I'll concede that this year's incoming class isn't great at shooting, but we're not sure.

Still, with Cook, Sulaimon, and one of Semi / M. Jones, I'd call 3pt shooting an asset, not a liability.

Semi or Matt will probably be the 8th guy in the rotation (and the other probably 9th), so I don't think we can count on them for anything more than an occasional outburst, if that. Which means we'll probably have just two reliable 3-point threats. If one or both of them gets in foul trouble or goes into a shooting slump (and both Quinn and Rasheed have seemed pretty streaky so far in their careers), or if the opponent has one or two tall guards who are strong enough to fight through screens, or if Coach K decides we can't go super-small for long periods of time, we could be in trouble, shooting-wise. For a team that for each of the past 7 seasons has gotten between 29% and 35% of its points from three-point baskets, I think that makes three-point shooting a question mark.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Semi or Matt will probably be the 8th guy in the rotation (and the other probably 9th), so I don't think we can count on them for anything more than an occasional outburst, if that. Which means we'll probably have just two reliable 3-point threats. If one or both of them gets in foul trouble or goes into a shooting slump (and both Quinn and Rasheed have seemed pretty streaky so far in their careers), or if the opponent has one or two tall guards who are strong enough to fight through screens, or if Coach K decides we can't go super-small for long periods of time, we could be in trouble, shooting-wise. For a team that for each of the past 7 seasons has gotten between 29% and 35% of its points from three-point baskets, I think that makes three-point shooting a question mark.

I think you are basing this a lot on "what-ifs". I have more faith in Semi and M. Jones (especially Jones, who I think cracks the rotation early, if not starts). You also think that foul trouble will be a huge issue, when Cook averaged 1.9 fouls per game and Sulaimon 2.2. (Thornton? 2.9. Parker, who played little D? 2.4. Hood? 2.6). Not sure where you're getting the foul trouble. Shooting slumps absolutely exist, but they also work in reverse. T. Jones may get hot, as could whoever plays the 3.

Last year, 3pt wasn't a strength, it was one of our primary identities. 3pt shooting may not be an identity this year, but I wouldn't call it "questionable". Rather, it will be a tool that can be relied upon.

[Kedsy]

I think you are basing this a lot on "what-ifs".

Do you doubt that the five guys who get the most minutes will be Tyus, Quinn, Rasheed, Amile, and Jahlil? Do you doubt that Marshall will play rotation minutes as backup center? Then my only "what if" is that Justise plays ahead of Matt and Semi, because if that happens then Matt and Semi (or Semi and Matt) will be the 8th and 9th men in the rotation.

I get that you have confidence in Matt, and that's fine. But the idea that he will become a plus shooter one season after having a true shooing percentage of 39.7% (regular FG% = 29%; three-point pct = 14%) is employing a much bigger "what if" than my one assumption.

As for foul trouble, I didn't say our guards would encounter foul trouble every game. Last season, Quinn had 4 fouls in three games and 3 fouls in six more. Rasheed had 4 or 5 fouls in four games (fouled out of one) and 3 fouls in seven more. If that happens in a big game, or a tournament game, that could spell trouble for Duke's shooting.

Finally, as far as streaky shooting working both ways, Tyus or Justise getting hot from three would only matter if they're used to taking shots. If the system is designed for Quinn and Rasheed to have the green light from three but everyone else to only take threes when they're wide open, then if Quinn and/or Rasheed go cold we could be in trouble. In other words, Tyus shooting 2 for 3 from three-land won't make up for Quinn going 1 for 9.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not preaching doom here. I'm just saying our team's three-point shooting for next season is a question mark.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Do you doubt that the five guys who get the most minutes will be Tyus, Quinn, Rasheed, Amile, and Jahlil? Do you doubt that Marshall will play rotation minutes as backup center? Then my only "what if" is that Justise plays ahead of Matt and Semi, because if that happens then Matt and Semi (or Semi and Matt) will be the 8th and 9th men in the rotation.

I get that you have confidence in Matt, and that's fine. But the idea that he will become a plus shooter one season after having a true shooing percentage of 39.7% (regular FG% = 29%; three-point pct = 14%) is employing a much bigger "what if" than my one assumption.

As for foul trouble, I didn't say our guards would encounter foul trouble every game. Last season, Quinn had 4 fouls in three games and 3 fouls in six more. Rasheed had 4 or 5 fouls in four games (fouled out of one) and 3 fouls in seven more. If that happens in a big game, or a tournament game, that could spell trouble for Duke's shooting.

Finally, as far as streaky shooting working both ways, Tyus or Justise getting hot from three would only matter if they're used to taking shots. If the system is designed for Quinn and Rasheed to have the green light from three but everyone else to only take threes when they're wide open, then if Quinn and/or Rasheed go cold we could be in trouble. In other words, Tyus shooting 2 for 3 from three-land won't make up for Quinn going 1 for 9.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not preaching doom here. I'm just saying our team's three-point shooting for next season is a question mark.

We'll have to agree to disagree. I don't see 3pt shooting as a question mark, but rather as an asset, especially with two proven 3pt shooters (and Sulaimon is absolutely an elite 3pt shooter).

Also, I'm not sold on MP3 being the 6th or even 7th man. He will be in the rotation, no doubt, but he will only average 15 min at most next year (assuming that Okafor averages at least 25, which is debatable). I think one of M. Jones, Semi, or Winslow will be a Super 6th man. I'm just not sure which one. Also, it's entirely possible that 2 of M. Jones, Semi, and Winslow get more minutes that MP3. I don't see this as too far-fetched, especially given that any of these players can play at least 2 positions, whilst MP3 can only play the 5.

M. Jones had the weirdest year. If you look at historical recruiting articles, they all call M. Jones one of the best - if not the best - 3pt shooter (I guess they didn't really like James Young...) in his class. I think M. Jones has some major big game nerves. I hope he gets over it. But, I agree with you. It's a big what-if.

[Kedsy]

Also, I'm not sold on MP3 being the 6th or even 7th man. He will be in the rotation, no doubt, but he will only average 15 min at most next year (assuming that Okafor averages at least 25, which is debatable). I think one of M. Jones, Semi, or Winslow will be a Super 6th man. I'm just not sure which one. Also, it's entirely possible that 2 of M. Jones, Semi, and Winslow get more minutes that MP3. I don't see this as too far-fetched, especially given that any of these players can play at least 2 positions, whilst MP3 can only play the 5.

If Marshall gets 15 mpg, I can almost guarantee that (absent injury) no more than one of those three guys will get more minutes than he does. In all Coach K's time here, we've only had as many as 8 guys get 15+ mpg once, and that time it was because Elliot Williams replaced Greg Paulus in the rotation. There wasn't any time that year when 8 guys were actually getting 15+ minutes, and certainly not in close games after January 1.

Which means it's almost guaranteed that if Marshall gets 15 mpg he'll be the 7th man, which again means that two of Justise/Matt/Semi will be the 8th and 9th guys. I still think it will be Justise who emerges as 5th or 6th man, which leaves one of Matt and Semi getting (hopefully) around 10 mpg and the other around 5 mpg.

Since this thread is supposed to be about non-rotation musings, I'll stop there.

[dukechem]

I don't think anyone has said much about the coaching changes for next year. In the past two years, we've lost two highly experienced (with the Duke system) coaches. And Coach K will be off with the national team this summer. Will he be taking anyone from the current staff with him? With so much riding on the performance of the entering freshmen (one, possibly two starters, and another in the rotation as our only pure SF), who will be in charge of getting them off on the right foot during the summer and into the fall? I don't question the capabilities of the returning coaches, but they will be assuming new roles and responsibilities along with getting four critical recruits adapted to the system.

I don't expect great team play, especially on defense to start the year. Athleticism should keep us afloat offensively, but we all know that it takes time to learn to communicate and play Duke defense, whatever adaptations are made next year.

[Newton_14]

I don't think anyone has said much about the coaching changes for next year. In the past two years, we've lost two highly experienced (with the Duke system) coaches. And Coach K will be off with the national team this summer. Will he be taking anyone from the current staff with him? With so much riding on the performance of the entering freshmen (one, possibly two starters, and another in the rotation as our only pure SF), who will be in charge of getting them off on the right foot during the summer and into the fall? I don't question the capabilities of the returning coaches, but they will be assuming new roles and responsibilities along with getting four critical recruits adapted to the system.

I don't expect great team play, especially on defense to start the year. Athleticism should keep us afloat offensively, but we all know that it takes time to learn to communicate and play Duke defense, whatever adaptations are made next year.

Great points. Normally, all 3 assistants join K with the National Team, leaving the special assistant to hold down the fort at home. With Jon getting promoted that means we are tbd on who that special assistant is, unless it got announced already and I missed it. In those past seasons it did not necessarily hurt us, but you never know. I would expect that Quinn, Rasheed, and Amile will be tasked with making sure the guys do all the things they are supposed to do over the summer. Everything is planned out for them, it just has to be done.

So yes, you are correct. We face the challenges of having a new assistant coaching staff (though the change is small and familiar with Jon replacing Capel replacing Wojo, and Nate/Jon moving up 1 spot). So new staff so to speak, and that new staff will be off teaching and learning at the same time with the National Team. The new special assistant will be back in Durham with the guys. Normally the guys show up in Durham in late June early July I believe, to begin summer classes as well as workout with their teammates.

Lots of learning to be done between July 1st and October. Especially for the Freshmen. Exciting times for the program though, despite the Mercer wart.

A lot to be excited about. Another journey begins.

[Kedsy]

A lot to be excited about. Another journey begins.

Well said. Anyone who thinks next year will be defined by this year is kidding themselves.

[ArtVandelay]

There's almost no doubt we'll see a change in Duke's playing style. Last year we had really good 3-point shooting and little post presence and our offense was geared around a wing and a stretch 4. Next year our 3-point shooting is questionable, we should have a strong post presence, and our offense will be geared around a point guard and a center.

And if there's a change of playing style, then I don't think you can ever judge a college team based on the previous year's team minus "productivity lost" and plus newcomers. Or even plus newcomers and expected progress of returnees. It's both more complicated and more simple than that. Complicated in that the value of returning players if they're used in different roles can change dramatically, even beyond the usual off-season improvement. Simple in that I think you can simply look at what you have, rather than trying to factor in what you gained and what you lost.

Looking at next year's team, it seems likely we'll have a top 10 offense. How good our defense will be depends on how quickly the freshmen catch on, but is likely to be an improvement over this past season. Because Justise and Amile aren't strong outside shooters, there should be an interesting trade off between perimeter shooting skill and perimeter size on defense. And I can say all that without factoring in "lost pieces" because we're not really replacing the individual players, we have a whole new team.

I suspect you're correct about the playing style being different, and I agree with your observations about our personnel and what they are likely to do well and not so well. I'm definitely not saying next year's team is going to be the same as last year's team -- far from it. I was actually saying there are some parallels in terms of the sheer uncertainty of it all -- lack of experience, significant talent and upside, but possible lack of cohesion. While there is of course some truth to your point that the value of players can change depending on their roles, where I disagree (although I don't think this is a *major* point of disagreement) is that I think you are over-thinking in some respects and under-valuing the importance of a simple concept: how good are the players on this team? Sure, you can make sure you put them in the right roles to succeed, etc., but at the end of the day isn't that the most important thing? That is my point about why looking at what we lost vs. what we gained matters.

Anyway, to come back to my initial point, even if what you say is true, it seems to only increase the uncertainty about next year's team. We are talking about lots of new players, new coaches, and potentially an entirely new scheme? Sure, I hope it all works out and there are reasons to think it may, but there are definitely reasons to think it may not.

[Kedsy]

Anyway, to come back to my initial point, even if what you say is true, it seems to only increase the uncertainty about next year's team. We are talking about lots of new players, new coaches, and potentially an entirely new scheme? Sure, I hope it all works out and there are reasons to think it may, but there are definitely reasons to think it may not.

Isn't that why we watch the games? There are never any guarantees. We'll have a lot of talent, though, and a great coach, and that's a good enough starting point for me.

[duke09hms]

Well said. Anyone who thinks next year will be defined by this year is kidding themselves.

True, every year is a new overall group of players. I do hope that next year will have a greater emphasis on defense because of this year though.