2014 Jordan Brand Classic

[Henderson]

Might as well get it started, despite other more pressing news likely this week.

http://www.jordanbrandclassic.com/featured-news/jordan-brand-classic-official-2014-roster-announced.html

All four Duke recruits will be playing. Allen, Okafor, and Jones will play on the same team. Winslow will play on the other with Mudiay. Justin Jackson, who missed the Nike Hoop Summit (poor tryout due to bad ankle?) will be on the roster. Other usual suspects plus some others.

[sagegrouse]

Might as well get it started, despite other more pressing news likely this week.

http://www.jordanbrandclassic.com/featured-news/jordan-brand-classic-official-2014-roster-announced.html

All four Duke recruits will be playing. Allen, Okafor, and Jones will play on the same team. Winslow will play on the other with Mudiay. Justin Jackson, who missed the Nike Hoop Summit (poor tryout due to bad ankle?) will be on the roster. Other usual suspects plus some others.

See time and date in headline.

[CDu]

So our four recruits are playing in the Jordan Brand Classic. Three have gotten into the game (Jones and Okafor started for the West; Allen came in briefly for the West).

Jones and Okafor have looked pretty good. Jones is a marvel in transition. The questions about Jones are on the defensive end, and these games just won't give any insight there. But he definitely has the ball on a string and sees the floor really well.

Okafor is, umm... methodical... but he is pretty effective in the half court. I don't see him being much of a defensive presence, though. He's... methodical... so I don't see him handling the "hedge and recover" well, nor do I see him defending the pick-and-roll. He'll get a LOT of rebounds on both ends, but I don't see him as a rim protector. And in the half court, he's going to be a load for anyone to handle.

Allen had a very rough time of it out there. In the span of about 5-6 possessions, he committed 3 turnovers and had a near-turnover that resulted in an out-of-control, spinning runner that got blocked out of bounds. I hope it was just nerves, but he definitely looked like a fish out of water.

Winslow has gotten in the game now, and has been pretty uninvolved. This format seems to benefit him the least (he appears to be a "glue" guy, jack-of-all-trades-master-of-none type). Of note, he's been playing PF in this game (matched up against Reid Travis and Trey Lyles). He did get a Jefferson-esque basket slinking along the baseline. But otherwise hasn't been involved.

[wavedukefan70s]

I liked a couple of the pull-up jumpers.i think that is lost in the game at times.

[gumbomoop]

No surprise, but their play strongly reaffirms that Jahlil and Tyus are real deal.

Jahlil has excellent footwork, good handle for someone that big, several go to moves down low, displayed a wing-like soft-handed reception and hesitation finish off fast break pass from Tyus. Jahlil likes to run the floor, repeatedly. Might need work on FT, but form is ok, I think.

Tyus is heads-up always, superb passer long and short distance, excellent handle, excellent. Smart floater in lane. All-court vision. One spectacular long bounce pass for layup. Other more mundane, but solid fast-break passes. Defenders will try to physical him if they can get away with it, but he's pretty smart. Lots of assists already.

Justise guarded Reid Travis, clearly a college 4, did ok. Doubt Justise will score much in this game, as this won't be a game where multiple passes will occur on any possession.

Grayson looks 6'2", 6'3" tops. Looks to be playing some PG for his team, but can't do that yet. Gets pushed around some, too ; not strong enough yet. Nice floater for a basket, and a 3-bomb. He has O, not so much D.

Because the uniforms don't, uh, highlight the numbers, and because the announcers sometimes lapse into Vitale-like commentary on players' future teams/teammates rather than calling the action, hard to say much more about Justise or the Heels. Justin Jackson made a couple nice baskets, very nice all-around game. He'll play immediately. Pinson not a major contributor, but can play. Joel Berry must be injured, not playing. Neither is Myles Turner, minor injury.

Johnny D has his starting PF in Reid Travis. Worker, never stops.

Score is 72-71 at half.

[gumbomoop]

As I was typing my post, CDu started a new JB thread, so maybe mods can merge. My observations sometimes mirror CDu's, but I'm so far a bit more enthusiastic about the talents of Jahlil and Tyus.

[gumbomoop]

I've imported this from the other JB thread, until mods merge the two threads. Readers can compare my observations with those of CDu and others.


No surprise, but their play strongly reaffirms that Jahlil and Tyus are real deal.

Jahlil has excellent footwork, good handle for someone that big, several go to moves down low, displayed a wing-like soft-handed reception and hesitation finish off fast break pass from Tyus. Jahlil likes to run the floor, repeatedly. Might need work on FT, but form is ok, I think.

Tyus is heads-up always, superb passer long and short distance, excellent handle, excellent. Smart floater in lane. All-court vision. One spectacular long bounce pass for layup. Other more mundane, but solid fast-break passes. Defenders will try to physical him if they can get away with it, but he's pretty smart. Lots of assists already.

Justise guarded Reid Travis, clearly a college 4, did ok. Doubt Justise will score much in this game, as this won't be a game where multiple passes will occur on any possession.

Grayson looks 6'2", 6'3" tops. Looks to be playing some PG for his team, but can't do that yet. Gets pushed around some, too ; not strong enough yet. Nice floater for a basket, and a 3-bomb. He has O, not so much D.

Because the uniforms don't, uh, highlight the numbers, and because the announcers sometimes lapse into Vitale-like commentary on players' future teams/teammates rather than calling the action, hard to say much more about Justise or the Heels. Justin Jackson made a couple nice baskets, very nice all-around game. He'll play immediately. Pinson not a major contributor, but can play. Joel Berry must be injured, not playing. Neither is Myles Turner, minor injury.

Johnny D has his starting PF in Reid Travis. Worker, never stops.

Score is 72-71 at half.

[gumbomoop]

Grayson starts second half, and shows nice full court rush for layup. Not for the first time have I heard commentator compare him to Bob Sura. Not yet, and not as tall, but doesn't seem a crazy idea, some similarities.

[gumbomoop]

Jahlil likes to run the floor, always. Will be surprised and disappointed if Duke doesn't fast-break regularly next season, as Amile, Rasheed, and Justise can all run, too. Maybe every Duke player, even Marshall?

Anyhow, Jahlil knows if he runs, Tyus will find him. Tyus will find everyone on O.

D? Probably still some big questions there, and we won't find any clues in this game.

Update - Jahlil just made a double-pump no-look pass to Tyus for layup. And a spin move from top of key for layup. Excellent footwork.

[roywhite]

Jahlil likes to run the floor, always. Will be surprised and disappointed if Duke doesn't fast-break regularly next season, as Amile, Rasheed, and Justise can all run, too. Maybe every Duke player, even Marshall?

Anyhow, Jahlil knows if he runs, Tyus will find him. Tyus will find everyone on O.



Tyus in the open floor? genius
shades of Bobby Hurley
Or is it John Stockton? the smart pass, the right pass, fundamentally sound

[FerryFor50]

Okafor is, umm... methodical... but he is pretty effective in the half court. I don't see him being much of a defensive presence, though. He's... methodical... so I don't see him handling the "hedge and recover" well, nor do I see him defending the pick-and-roll. He'll get a LOT of rebounds on both ends, but I don't see him as a rim protector. And in the half court, he's going to be a load for anyone to handle.


I assume "methodical" is the nice way of saying "slow" or "plodding." I don't agree. Okafor runs the floor *very* well. In the Nike Hoops Summit, he was staying in front of Mudiay on the perimeter. And his footwork is outstanding. Have you seen his spin moves?

I think he'll do very well on the defensive end on hedges (he's faster and more agile than he appears) and rim protection (just based on sheer size). He's not a great leaper, but he's 6'10" and growing... and he's a tree. Gonna be hard to beat him out for positioning in the lane.

[Newton_14]

Jahlil likes to run the floor, always. Will be surprised and disappointed if Duke doesn't fast-break regularly next season, as Amile, Rasheed, and Justise can all run, too. Maybe every Duke player, even Marshall?

Anyhow, Jahlil knows if he runs, Tyus will find him. Tyus will find everyone on O.

D? Probably still some big questions there, and we won't find any clues in this game.

Update - Jahlil just made a double-pump no-look pass to Tyus for layup. And a spin move from top of key for layup. Excellent footwork.

Yeah love the running by our big man. That is a tremendous asset. He does not seem to be lumbering much for a guy that big. I like it. Him and Tyus are starters from Day 1. No doubt whatsoever in my mind. Between the uni's and the announcers I have not had much luck finding Winslow.

Other thought.. Cliff Alexander is 32 years old if dude is a day. Has to be related to Greg Oden somehow. :)

[CDu]

I assume "methodical" is the nice way of saying "slow" or "plodding." I don't agree. Okafor runs the floor *very* well. In the Nike Hoops Summit, he was staying in front of Mudiay on the perimeter. And his footwork is outstanding. Have you seen his spin moves?

I think he'll do very well on the defensive end on hedges (he's faster and more agile than he appears) and rim protection (just based on sheer size). He's not a great leaper, but he's 6'10" and growing... and he's a tree. Gonna be hard to beat him out for positioning in the lane.

Yeah, he definitely started moving better as the game has gone on. In the early stages, though, that movement was not there.

Since then, he's run a lot.

I don't know that he's still growing (height-wise at least). But he's definitely a big body that won't be moved easily.

[FerryFor50]

Yeah, he definitely started moving better as the game has gone on. In the early stages, though, that movement was not there.

Since then, he's run a lot.

I don't know that he's still growing (height-wise at least). But he's definitely a big body that won't be moved easily.

I assume you haven't seen his other all-star games... I've been very impressed with how agile and nimble he is for his size.

[CDu]

As I was typing my post, CDu started a new JB thread, so maybe mods can merge. My observations sometimes mirror CDu's, but I'm so far a bit more enthusiastic about the talents of Jahlil and Tyus.

I hope I didn't sound enthusiastic about Jones and Okafor. I'm very enthusiastic about them. In fact, my only "questionable" comment about Jones was that this game doesn't offer a chance to see where he is not strong (defense). But Jones has looked fabulous.

And I thought Okafor looked like a beast in the half court on offense. I questioned his mobility early on, but he's since shown more mobility so I'm not as concerned there as I was to start the game.

It was Allen who I was least impressed by. Winslow hadn't done much either way, but I totally give him a pass in these types of games because it isn't what he's best at.

[CDu]

I assume you haven't seen his other all-star games... I've been very impressed with how agile and nimble he is for his size.

I saw only a bit of the McDonald's game, and that's it. Unfortunately, the bit that I saw was where he was really struggling against Turner. So that, along with his plodding (though very effective) start in this one guided my comments. Since then, he's looked much more fluid. And I assume that he did so in the McDonald's game (the part I didn't see) and Hoops Summit.

[FerryFor50]

I saw only a bit of the McDonald's game, and that's it. Unfortunately, the bit that I saw was where he was really struggling against Turner. So that, along with his plodding (though very effective) start in this one guided my comments. Since then, he's looked much more fluid. And I assume that he did so in the McDonald's game (the part I didn't see) and Hoops Summit.

You missed how fired up he was in the Nike Hoops Summit game. He was banging with Towns pretty hard and getting pretty mean. Also nice to see... :)

[CDu]

You missed how fired up he was in the Nike Hoops Summit game. He was banging with Towns pretty hard and getting pretty mean. Also nice to see... :)

That would have been nice. He's absolutely not getting pushed around by anyone next year, that's for sure. He is a big boy.

[gumbomoop]

It was Allen who I was least impressed by. Winslow hadn't done much either way, but I totally give him a pass in these types of games because it isn't what he's best at.

I definitely agree re Grayson, at least in the first half. He did look like he might not belong. But even in the first half, he showed a couple of moves, and even nicer couple in second half. But I agree, he's not anywhere near top of these guys.

On Winslow: one of issues, if Myles Turner does not come to Duke, will be backup To Amile at 4. I think, but am not certain, that Justise has defended a lot at the 4 in this game. So if Semi can't back up Amile, I'll guess Justise will mostly play 3, but some 4, too.

And though many posters will not like to hear this, I can easily imagine some small-ball with Tyus/Quinn, Rasheed, Matt, Justise, Marshall/Jahlil. For 2-3 minutes at a time, once per half??

[CDu]

I definitely agree re Grayson, at least in the first half. He did look like he might not belong. But even in the first half, he showed a couple of moves, and even nicer couple in second half. But I agree, he's not anywhere near top of these guys.

On Winslow: one of issues, if Myles Turner does not come to Duke, will be backup To Amile at 4. I think, but am not certain, that Justise has defended a lot at the 4 in this game. So if Semi can't back up Amile, I'll guess Justise will mostly play 3, but some 4, too.

And though many posters will not like to hear this, I can easily imagine some small-ball with Tyus/Quinn, Rasheed, Matt, Justise, Marshall/Jahlil. For 2-3 minutes at a time, once per half??

I think we'll absolutely see T. Jones, Cook, and Sulaimon share the court for reasonable stretches. I would be surprised at 2-3 minutes per half of a supersmall lineup. And, frankly, I hope we don't see that lineup for even 2-3 mpg. I am hopeful that Jefferson and Ojeleye can give us 40 mpg at PF. It may not seem like much, but Ojeleye is 2 inches taller and 20-25 lbs heavier than Winslow, is much stronger and a much better leaper than Winslow.

I think Winslow is a capable option at PF. But he's a plus option at SF.

I am actually intrigued by a pairing of Ojeleye at PF and Winslow at SF for stretches of the game.

[gumbomoop]

Although a game such as this, with little d [for this purpose the d really does have to be lower case.....], doesn't give us a full picture of our recruits' strengths and weaknesses, I'm certain that Jahlil and Tyus are multi-skilled on 0. Justise, not a featured player, nevertheless showed he's a solid defender, and can score some, hit an open mid-jumper at end. Grayson likely to be inconsistent but spectacular at times.

I appreciate the many posters who remind us that D is crucial, and sometimes I remember not to think only of O. But in a week of a complicated sense of celebration for Rodney and Jabari accompanied by some frustration that we got to see them only one season, this game brought an upbeat feeling, for me at least.

Without encouraging anyone to be as foolishly optimistic as I-- and without pushing anyone to follow Ozzie over the cliff -- I insist we have reason to de-funk ourselves sooner rather than later. Jahlil and Tyus are real, real package deal. Justise will contribute big -- big -- and Grayson some, more limited, yes, but some.

[CDu]

Although a game such as this, with little d [for this purpose the d really does have to be lower case.....], doesn't give us a full picture of our recruits' strengths and weaknesses, I'm certain that Jahlil and Tyus are multi-skilled on 0. Justise, not a featured player, nevertheless showed he's a solid defender, and can score some, hit an open mid-jumper at end. Grayson likely to be inconsistent but spectacular at times.

I appreciate the many posters who remind us that D is crucial, and sometimes I remember not to think only of O. But in a week of a complicated sense of celebration for Rodney and Jabari accompanied by some frustration that we got to see them only one season, this game brought an upbeat feeling, for me at least.

Without encouraging anyone to be as foolishly optimistic as I-- and without pushing anyone to follow Ozzie over the cliff -- I insist we have reason to de-funk ourselves sooner rather than later. Jahlil and Tyus are real, real package deal. Justise will contribute big -- big -- and Grayson some, more limited, yes, but some.

I would wholeheartedly echo the excitement about Okafor and Jones. Winslow... we'll see, but I'm cautiously optimistic. At the very least, he'll contribute. I would not expect Allen to play much at all next year. We are just too deep and too talented at his position(s). Hopefully, as a sophomore and junior and senior, he'll contribute a lot.

[FireOgilvie]

I'm more and more impressed by our recruits every time I see them. I think Tyus Jones will be our best PG in a long time (and hopefully he pushes senior Quinn Cook to work his butt off). We will finally have someone that makes scoring easy for everyone else. I hope this is the year that we decide to play a fast-paced style, which I think is perfect for Jones and the rest of our personnel.

I'm still worried about how good our overall defense will be next year, and unless we land Turner, I think we're still going to struggle with rebounding and interior defense. The fact that we have Okafor means we're probably already better at interior defense than we were last year, but I wish we had someone that could really contest and block shots like Turner. We've lacked a great shot-blocker since we had Shelden Williams.

[roywhite]

I think we'll absolutely see T. Jones, Cook, and Sulaimon share the court for reasonable stretches. I would be surprised at 2-3 minutes per half of a supersmall lineup. And, frankly, I hope we don't see that lineup for even 2-3 mpg. I am hopeful that Jefferson and Ojeleye can give us 40 mpg at PF. It may not seem like much, but Ojeleye is 2 inches taller and 20-25 lbs heavier than Winslow, is much stronger and a much better leaper than Winslow.

Is there really a big size difference between the two?

From the recent Nike Hoops Summit rosters (http://nbadraft.net/2014-hoop-summit-rosters), Justise was measured as:
6'6"
221 pounds
6'10" wingspan
8'7" standing reach

Ojeleye (not as definitive, but based on available stats)
6'6.5" or 6'7"
230 pounds (Duke roster)
6'9.5" wingspan (LeBron skill camp)
don't know standing reach

Ojeleye is an exceptional leaper, but may be roughly the same size as Justise Winslow

I'd be pleased to see both of them get a great opportunity this next year, and could see them both on the floor for stretches. Neither would be tall for a college 4, but each has strength and length.

[roywhite]

Some interesting notes about the Jordan Brand Classic from Duke Blue Planet (https://twitter.com/dukeblueplanet), including a video link of a nice Tyus Jones to Jahlil pass, resulting in a dunk.

And, further down, this note about Ojeleye:
Almost needed to call Durham FD after @semiojeleye knocked down 16 straight 3's in the workout today. Nets were burning

[Newton_14]

Although a game such as this, with little d [for this purpose the d really does have to be lower case.....], doesn't give us a full picture of our recruits' strengths and weaknesses, I'm certain that Jahlil and Tyus are multi-skilled on 0. Justise, not a featured player, nevertheless showed he's a solid defender, and can score some, hit an open mid-jumper at end. Grayson likely to be inconsistent but spectacular at times.

I appreciate the many posters who remind us that D is crucial, and sometimes I remember not to think only of O. But in a week of a complicated sense of celebration for Rodney and Jabari accompanied by some frustration that we got to see them only one season, this game brought an upbeat feeling, for me at least.

Without encouraging anyone to be as foolishly optimistic as I-- and without pushing anyone to follow Ozzie over the cliff -- I insist we have reason to de-funk ourselves sooner rather than later. Jahlil and Tyus are real, real package deal. Justise will contribute big -- big -- and Grayson some, more limited, yes, but some.

I echo these sentiments. I was at the UVA title game and then in Raleigh at the Mercer game so I have been drenched in that funk since. Then to top it off we lose our two best players. (Not mad at either one of them by the way. Just disappointed we only got to see them one year, and we won't have a super freak team next year) Watching our guys in the 3 All Star games has gone a long way in removing the stench from UVA/Mercer. I think your assessment of all four guys is spot on.


I'm more and more impressed by our recruits every time I see them. I think Tyus Jones will be our best PG in a long time (and hopefully he pushes senior Quinn Cook to work his butt off). We will finally have someone that makes scoring easy for everyone else. I hope this is the year that we decide to play a fast-paced style, which I think is perfect for Jones and the rest of our personnel.

I'm still worried about how good our overall defense will be next year, and unless we land Turner, I think we're still going to struggle with rebounding and interior defense. The fact that we have Okafor means we're probably already better at interior defense than we were last year, but I wish we had someone that could really contest and block shots like Turner. We've lacked a great shot-blocker since we had Shelden Williams.
I also share in the worry here over our defense. I will say it can't be any worse than this year. It has to be better. I will say that on top of being encouraged by the Freshman, I am encouraged by the potential of each returning player to improve, especially, Rasheed, Quinn, MP3, Matt, and Semi, and finally by the knowledge that next year, no kid will have to "guard/defend" up a position for extended minutes. This past season for large minutes in every game, we had two guys defending up a position. That's 2/5 of the "Fist" and a big part of the problem. Not all of it certainly, but it hurt.

With a different set of guys, different mix of talent, and everyone guarding the guy they should be guarding, hopefully it leads to much better defense. I know this. With Jahlil and Amile, we will be very formidable in the defensive rebounding dept. That should help get stops too.

[FireOgilvie]

With a different set of guys, different mix of talent, and everyone guarding the guy they should be guarding, hopefully it leads to much better defense. I know this. With Jahlil and Amile, we will be very formidable in the defensive rebounding dept. That should help get stops too.

Agreed.

I'm more worried about defensive rebounding than offensive rebounding. Okafor is a fantastic offensive rebounder; I think that sets him apart from other guys in his class. He's always attacking the rim. Amile is also a very good offensive rebounder. The same goes for Marshall Plumlee, who actually had more offensive rebounds than defensive rebounds last year.

[Saratoga2]

It's likely that Jahlil and Tyus will start, maybe even from the first. Justise or Semi will play some of the 4 and possibly some at the 3. Since Semi played very little last year, we could see three freshman level players on the floor together for significant minutes. The coaches will only have a few months to get these kids integrated into a defense that last years team had trouble learning. The guys are talented and lets hope they can learn quickly. I see Capel will be assistant head coach and Scheyer will be assistant coach, so those are the guys that will have to bring the defense along.

Lots of offensive prowess seen tonight. They should be solid on that front.

[MCFinARL]

It's likely that Jahlil and Tyus will start, maybe even from the first. Justise or Semi will play some of the 4 and possibly some at the 3. Since Semi played very little last year, we could see three freshman level players on the floor together for significant minutes. The coaches will only have a few months to get these kids integrated into a defense that last years team had trouble learning. The guys are talented and lets hope they can learn quickly. I see Capel will be assistant head coach and Scheyer will be assistant coach, so those are the guys that will have to bring the defense along.

Lots of offensive prowess seen tonight. They should be solid on that front.

Or, they will have a few months to figure out a defense that these kids can learn more easily.

[MaxAMillion]

It's likely that Jahlil and Tyus will start, maybe even from the first. Justise or Semi will play some of the 4 and possibly some at the 3. Since Semi played very little last year, we could see three freshman level players on the floor together for significant minutes. The coaches will only have a few months to get these kids integrated into a defense that last years team had trouble learning. The guys are talented and lets hope they can learn quickly. I see Capel will be assistant head coach and Scheyer will be assistant coach, so those are the guys that will have to bring the defense along.

Lots of offensive prowess seen tonight. They should be solid on that front.

I am not worried about defensive improvement. Last year's defense was one of the worst Coach K has ever had. I don't look at an outlier as the rule. I also consider Coach K's off the court issues (which most don't even think about). I believe those things negatively impacted the team. Hopefully Coach K's healthy will continue to be good. A strong and motivated K will automatically mean improvement on defense. Offense is another story. I think perimeter shooting could be a problem this year.

[Olympic Fan]

Anybody find a box score from last night?

[Troublemaker]

Box score:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BljBWwyIEAAXZuP.jpg:large

[Kedsy]

I think perimeter shooting could be a problem this year.


And, further down, this note about Ojeleye:
Almost needed to call Durham FD after @semiojeleye knocked down 16 straight 3's in the workout today. Nets were burning

Who knows, maybe Semi can be that stretch four we need. Someone will have to man PF when Amile is off the floor. It might be Justise, along with three guards (some combination of Tyus/Quinn/Rasheed/Matt), or it could be Semi. Or it could flip-flop as the season moves along. We'll just have to wait and see.

But either way, when Amile is off the floor we should have decent shooting at three (or sometimes four) spots. When Amile and Justise are both in the game, we may just have to do it with inside play and offensive rebounding.

[UrinalCake]

.I'm still worried about how good our overall defense will be next year, and unless we land Turner, I think we're still going to struggle with rebounding and interior defense. The fact that we have Okafor means we're probably already better at interior defense than we were last year, but I wish we had someone that could really contest and block shots like Turner. We've lacked a great shot-blocker since we had Shelden Williams.

I'm not too concerned about blocking shots. Duke defense has never been about blocking shots, it's about good communication, helping and rotating, and working together to funnel players to certain spots. Everyone keeps pointing to 2010 as the kind of defense we should run, yet forgets that Zoubek was not a shot blocker, nor was Lance. That team's defense was so good because the players were tough and smart and prided themselves on out working their opponent on D. No reason why we can't do that next year.

[_Gary]

It's kind of amazing that this past season we were most in need of help at two positions - PG and C. This year we'll be solid at those positions but will be hurting a bit at the SF/PF position. Not really the position, but we won't have a player in the mold of Grant Hill, Mike Dunleavy/Shane Battier, Kyle Singler (you see what I did there). I think if we only had that forward that could play inside and out, with a good handle, we'd pretty much have the makings of a great team. We had that this year with both Jabari and Rodney. As best I can tell we'll be hurting in that regard next year. All our forwards have things they can do very well, but they also have limitations. We don't have that traditional forward that we've had in other championship seasons.

Right now I think the following 4 guys are automatic starters (barring something really crazy going on): Jahlil, Amile, Sheed and Tyus. It's possible Coach goes with a small lineup and the 5th starter is Quinn. Personally I don't want to see this because I think we lose too much size and will take a real beating inside. I'd rather see Sheed playing at the other guard spot and us have someone like Semi or Justise, but I certainly see the limitations if that's how it plays out.

We have the makings of a very good team, but I'm not sure we have all the parts to be a great team. If this team were to win it all, it would be the first that I'm aware of in the Coach K era without the dynamic type of forward we've had on every other Duke Championship team. Someone in the forward position is going to need to step up and "wow" us a bit, imho. Let's hope that's exactly what happens. Or, we could get Turner and that would change everything I've said. And I'd be pleased as punch. :D

[FireOgilvie]

I'm not too concerned about blocking shots. Duke defense has never been about blocking shots, it's about good communication, helping and rotating, and working together to funnel players to certain spots. Everyone keeps pointing to 2010 as the kind of defense we should run, yet forgets that Zoubek was not a shot blocker, nor was Lance. That team's defense was so good because the players were tough and smart and prided themselves on out working their opponent on D. No reason why we can't do that next year.

Very true. Good points. But, it would still be nice to have someone that could hypothetically block shots, although I guess I'm most concerned with generally "protecting" the rim. Zoubek was great at protecting the rim mainly due to his height and reach. He obviously altered shots more than blocking them. But we can't ignore that we also had an extremely tall lineup filled with juniors/seniors that year and had a solid positive rebounding margin.

Our biggest problem for next year on defense, if we're comparing the team to 2010, is that we don't have a team full of experienced seniors/juniors who know the defense and have played together for 3 years. We're going to be young and inexperienced. This is the exact reason why our defense failed so spectacularly this year. Our inexperience hinders our ability to make good decisions and rotations on defense all of the time, while you can actually make up for and hide these defensive lapses with a great rim protector/shot-blocker. Look at what Kentucky has done yearly with a team filled with freshmen - they have individual players that average more blocked shots than our entire team does. That's how they make up for their defensive lapses. If you have the right guy down low, it's easier to implement an effective defense with young players. Look at what happened in UK's one down year when Nerlens Noel got injured - they immediately bombed and went to the NIT. I also think they would have won it all if Cauley-Stein would have been healthy, as he was that guy for them. Same goes for KU this year with Embiid and his injury. As far as potential Duke rim-protectors, that's not Amile's game, Plumlee is a work in progress, and I don't think Okafor will be able to do it as much as we need him to. That's why we need Turner.

This year was actually a low for the team in blocked shots, while we averaged about 36% more in 2010 and more than twice as many in 1999. That was surely representative of our lack of size and a big man/center this year. We also had our opponents block more shots than we did this year for the first time since 2007-08 (the year we edged Belmont and then lost to WVU).

In summary, 1) I really hope we land Turner. 2) Shot-blockers/rim-protectors help hide defensive lapses. This is particularly what we need for an inexperienced team. We're not going to run an idealized Coach K defense with a bunch of freshmen and guys that haven't played together. 3) I would like to see us make rim-protectors/shot-blockers our main recruiting focus in the near future.

[Newton_14]

I'm not too concerned about blocking shots. Duke defense has never been about blocking shots, it's about good communication, helping and rotating, and working together to funnel players to certain spots. Everyone keeps pointing to 2010 as the kind of defense we should run, yet forgets that Zoubek was not a shot blocker, nor was Lance. That team's defense was so good because the players were tough and smart and prided themselves on out working their opponent on D. No reason why we can't do that next year.

As a team in 2010, we actually had a solid year in blocking shots (4.1) per game, and it was by committee.
Kyle - 32
Zoubs - 31
Mason- 30
Miles - 26

In 2006 we averaged a whopping 5.6 bpg with the resident Land Lord averaging 3.9 all by himself with 137 blocks total. McBob was second with 46. No one else had more than 5.

[tommy]

I'm more and more impressed by our recruits every time I see them. I think Tyus Jones will be our best PG in a long time (and hopefully he pushes senior Quinn Cook to work his butt off). We will finally have someone that makes scoring easy for everyone else. I hope this is the year that we decide to play a fast-paced style, which I think is perfect for Jones and the rest of our personnel.

I'm still worried about how good our overall defense will be next year, and unless we land Turner, I think we're still going to struggle with rebounding and interior defense. The fact that we have Okafor means we're probably already better at interior defense than we were last year, but I wish we had someone that could really contest and block shots like Turner. We've lacked a great shot-blocker since we had Shelden Williams.

Why don't you think that Jahlil Okafor, who is 6'11" and 270 pounds, and quite nimble for a guy his size, will be able to contest and block shots?

[FireOgilvie]

Why don't you think that Jahlil Okafor, who is 6'11" and 270 pounds, and quite nimble for a guy his size, will be able to contest and block shots?

It's not that he can't at all; like I've said, he's going to be a huge step up from anyone we had this season. But, he's not my ideal shot-blocker/rim-protector type of player - that would be Anthony Davis (watch the first minute of this video on mute as he blocks John Henson and others - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NzhSOfAoTA4&feature=youtu.be&t=13s). I know that he's not available, but he's the perfect example of what I mean by rim-protector.

Anyway, I've watched Okafor play in the last year maybe 5 or so games, and I just haven't seen much from him when it comes to that. I just checked, and he's had a combined zero blocked shots between the McDonald's game, the Nike Hoop Summit, and the Jordan game. I think his offensive game is almost perfect, but he doesn't have very quick hands on defense (maybe because he is so bulky/muscular). Also, in general, he just doesn't get that high off the ground. I think the reason he's so unstoppable on offense is because he knows exactly what he wants to do and he has great body control and footwork with his post-moves, but on defense he just doesn't seem to react as well. I think that's probably the biggest issue. But again, don't get me wrong, he's going to be a major improvement on interior defense from last year, and he's unbelievable on offense.

Turner was injured before these all-star games and then got injured again, but he's a lot more fluid, quick, and explosive than Okafor. He has quick hands. He's like a more athletic Ryan Kelly in his movements... I don't know if I'd say a young Kevin Durant, but it's quite impressive considering he's basically 7 feet tall. I could see him playing PF along with Okafor and as a backup center. If we had both of them, I would be ecstatic. It probably won't happen, but I can dream.

Myles Turner versus Jahlil Okafor: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j63pqFDjC6k "Okafor's presence was felt more on the offensive side of the ball while Turner did most of his damage on the defensive end."

[Troublemaker]

We're going to be young and inexperienced. This is the exact reason why our defense failed so spectacularly this year. Our inexperience hinders our ability to make good decisions and rotations on defense all of the time

Good posts in this thread, FO. But I want to play devil's advocate to the above point a little bit.

I do think, as a fanbase, we are a tad overly spooked from the Jabari freshman D experience.

The thing is, over the years, we've seen all levels of freshmen readiness to play defense. On a scale of 1 to 10, I would say freshman Battier and freshman GHill were 10s. Jabari, unfortunately, was a 2 (imo). But his fellow freshman Matt Jones seemed like an 8 to me and was lauded by Coach K for his defense. Meaning, just because Jabari struggled mightily on defense, doesn't mean all freshmen will struggle to that extent. He's an outlier, imo, but he's fresh in our minds so we're very spooked.

Based on what I've seen, I would guess that Jahlil will use his size and length to be at least a 6 defensively. Just having that big, long presence around the rim (when he's not involved in pick-and-roll) will help tremendously, as you've stated. As for Tyus, I believe his court vision, the ability to see everything that's happening with the 9 other players on the court, will translate well on the defensive end as well. Mentally, the game slows down for him. He'll guard off-the-ball (with either Sheed or Quinn always guarding the point) and use his court vision to anticipate things and communicate to his teammates what's going on (Coach K's definition of leadership!), making him at least a 5 defensively, even if we have some concerns about his size and footspeed. He'll get a decent amount of steals using his anticipation, from what I've seen.

Now, if Jahlil and Tyus stayed four years, then Jahlil's 6 defensively can become a 9 and Tyus' 5 defensively can become an 8, something like that. That's not going to happen, obviously, at least in Jahlil's case. But given their great offensive talents, we can afford for them to be a 6 and a 5 defensively next season. We just can't afford for them to be a 2, which again, I believe was an outlier. Freshmen don't usually come in so raw defensively as Jabari was.

If Jahlil and Tyus can be average or slightly above average defensively (and I believe those are the most reasonable projections for them), then Duke should have a good defense. It's time for the rising juniors to step up. Sheed has the physical talent to be an 8 on the ball. Amile, playing his natural position, with his long arms and experience, should be a 7 or 8. Then at that SF spot, we should be able to plug in a good defender like Matt or Justise or maybe even Semi (still a mysterious character who may very well play good defense his soph year.)

Overall, you can see the makings of a good defense as long as the freshmen aren't awful on defense. Which I don't expect them to be. Because usually that's not the case.

[tommy]

It's not that he can't at all; like I've said, he's going to be a huge step up from anyone we had this season. But, he's not my ideal shot-blocker/rim-protector type of player - that would be Anthony Davis (watch the first minute of this video on mute as he blocks John Henson and others - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NzhSOfAoTA4&feature=youtu.be&t=13s). I know that he's not available, but he's the perfect example of what I mean by rim-protector.

Anyway, I've watched Okafor play in the last year maybe 5 or so games, and I just haven't seen much from him when it comes to that. I just checked, and he's had a combined zero blocked shots between the McDonald's game, the Nike Hoop Summit, and the Jordan game. I think his offensive game is almost perfect, but he doesn't have very quick hands on defense (maybe because he is so bulky/muscular). Also, in general, he just doesn't get that high off the ground. I think the reason he's so unstoppable on offense is because he knows exactly what he wants to do and he has great body control and footwork with his post-moves, but on defense he just doesn't seem to react as well. I think that's probably the biggest issue. But again, don't get me wrong, he's going to be a major improvement on interior defense from last year, and he's unbelievable on offense.

Turner was injured before these all-star games and then got injured again, but he's a lot more fluid, quick, and explosive than Okafor. He has quick hands. He's like a more athletic Ryan Kelly in his movements... I don't know if I'd say a young Kevin Durant, but it's quite impressive considering he's basically 7 feet tall. I could see him playing PF along with Okafor and as a backup center. If we had both of them, I would be ecstatic. It probably won't happen, but I can dream.

Myles Turner versus Jahlil Okafor: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j63pqFDjC6k "Okafor's presence was felt more on the offensive side of the ball while Turner did most of his damage on the defensive end."

Well I hope your standard for what constitutes a solid shot locking presence isn't Anthony Davis. Davis was one of the greatest college defensive big men and shot blocking big men in his generation, and may be the greatest shot blocker in the world today.

And and I wouldn't take much from all-star games, as there is little to no defense played by anyone. I know the Summit was more than that, but still it was one game.

Thats not to say that Turner may not be a better college shot blocker than Okafor. He may turn out to be. But Turner has a lot of work to do on his body. He's going to get pushed around a lot. Shot blocking isn't just about jumping high. In fact, oftentimes good shot blockers aren't great jumpers. Like Shelden Williams.

Like I say, Turner may be a great shot blocker in college if he is able to get to and hold his position. I'd love to have him on my team, for sure. But don't sell Jahlil's abilities short just yet.

[lotusland]

As a team in 2010, we actually had a solid year in blocking shots (4.1) per game, and it was by committee.
Kyle - 32
Zoubs - 31
Mason- 30
Miles - 26

In 2006 we averaged a whopping 5.6 bpg with the resident Land Lord averaging 3.9 all by himself with 137 blocks total. McBob was second with 46. No one else had more than 5.

Interesting that Kyle led that team in blocks. Even as a 6'8 wing I didn't remember him being that effective as a shot blocker although I did think he was a superb defender.

[NSDukeFan]

Interesting that Kyle led that team in blocks. Even as a 6'8 wing I didn't remember him being that effective as a shot blocker although I did think he was a superb defender.

The way I remember him, Kyle was the best at everything and all those who didn't vote him all-American are crazy. I might be a bit biased, though.

[HK Dukie]

Tyus line: 10 points, 12 assists, 7 rebounds in only 22 minutes

Legit.

[ice-9]

Good posts in this thread, FO. But I want to play devil's advocate to the above point a little bit.

I do think, as a fanbase, we are a tad overly spooked from the Jabari freshman D experience.

The thing is, over the years, we've seen all levels of freshmen readiness to play defense. On a scale of 1 to 10, I would say freshman Battier and freshman GHill were 10s. Jabari, unfortunately, was a 2 (imo). But his fellow freshman Matt Jones seemed like an 8 to me and was lauded by Coach K for his defense. Meaning, just because Jabari struggled mightily on defense, doesn't mean all freshmen will struggle to that extent. He's an outlier, imo, but he's fresh in our minds so we're very spooked.

But aren't Battier and Hill the true outliers? How many freshmen are/were really ready to play Duke defense?

The other thing that spooked me is that Rodney seemed like a 3 on the team defense readiness scale. That was a big part of our problem -- our two best offensive players weren't great team defenders in the Duke system.

[Troublemaker]

But aren't Battier and Hill the true outliers? How many freshmen are/were really ready to play Duke defense?


I'm not suggesting we should expect freshmen to play defense like Battier and GHill, either. I'm suggesting there's a range of possibilities and the "normal" thing to expect would be something towards the middle. Sheed was pretty good defensively as a freshman. So were Scheyer, Singler, and Kyrie pre-injury. (Kyrie gets knocked as a defender in the NBA, but at Duke he actually dominated touted seniors Jacob Pullen and Kalin Lucas on both ends.)

Freshmen that get big minutes at Duke don't usually display such a ridiculous gap between offensive and defensive abilities like Jabari did. Usually talent finds a way to express itself on both ends. For the freshmen that don't get big minutes, as a fanbase, we've just sort of assumed it's defense that's the problem. But a good chunk of the time, it's probably a mixture of both offensive and defensive struggles. (Which is fine for freshmen to experience.) And occasionally, you probably get someone like Matt Jones whose problems are almost entirely offensive as a freshman.

[NashvilleDevil]

Paul Biancardi on Tyus, "Over a three-game span at McDonald's, Nike Hoop Summit and the Jordan Brand Classic, he combined for 28 assists and just six turnovers."

Yes I know it's in all star games.

[lotusland]

But aren't Battier and Hill the true outliers? How many freshmen are/were really ready to play Duke defense?

The other thing that spooked me is that Rodney seemed like a 3 on the team defense readiness scale. That was a big part of our problem -- our two best offensive players weren't great team defenders in the Duke system.

Yet Hood was apparently recognized at the banquet as defensive POY. I'm not sure who I would have picked either as Tyler, Quinn, Amile and Sheed all exhibited deficiencies on D.

[CDu]

Paul Biancardi on Tyus, "Over a three-game span at McDonald's, Nike Hoop Summit and the Jordan Brand Classic, he combined for 28 assists and just six turnovers."

Yes I know it's in all star games.

Not to be a debbie-downer, but I'm gonna be a debbie-downer: Greg Paulus played in the 2005 McDonald's game (9 assists, 1 turnover) and the 2005 Nike Hoops Summit (10 assists, 2 turnovers). So he had 19 assists and just 3 turnovers in 2 all star game appearances. That obviously didn't translate to the next level.

That being said, I'm absolutely hoping that Tyus Jones isn't another Greg Paulus. Not that Paulus was a terrible player; he just wasn't nearly the PG we had hoped he'd be. We need Jones to be MUCH better than that.

[Clay Feet POF]

Paul Biancardi on Tyus, "Over a three-game span at McDonald's, Nike Hoop Summit and the Jordan Brand Classic, he combined for 28 assists and just six turnovers."

Yes I know it's in all star games.

I’m Sold….If we get Turner, I Think the tipping point is Tyus. What Big would not want to play with this assist machine. Can’t wait!!

[NashvilleDevil]

Not to be a debbie-downer, but I'm gonna be a debbie-downer: Greg Paulus played in the 2005 McDonald's game (9 assists, 1 turnover) and the 2005 Nike Hoops Summit (10 assists, 2 turnovers). So he had 19 assists and just 3 turnovers in 2 all star game appearances. That obviously didn't translate to the next level.

That being said, I'm absolutely hoping that Tyus Jones isn't another Greg Paulus. Not that Paulus was a terrible player; he just wasn't nearly the PG we had hoped he'd be. We need Jones to be MUCH better than that.

I did hedge stating I knew it was in all star games.

[CDu]

I did hedge stating I knew it was in all star games.

I wasn't disagreeing with you; just providing the context to go along with your last sentence.

[Olympic Fan]

Not to be a debbie-downer, but I'm gonna be a debbie-downer: Greg Paulus played in the 2005 McDonald's game (9 assists, 1 turnover) and the 2005 Nike Hoops Summit (10 assists, 2 turnovers). So he had 19 assists and just 3 turnovers in 2 all star game appearances. That obviously didn't translate to the next level.

That being said, I'm absolutely hoping that Tyus Jones isn't another Greg Paulus. Not that Paulus was a terrible player; he just wasn't nearly the PG we had hoped he'd be. We need Jones to be MUCH better than that.

Greg Paulus led the ACC in assists as a freshman in 2006 as the starting point guard on the ACC championship team that finished No. 1 in the nation.

Just saying ...

[ice-9]

Yet Hood was apparently recognized at the banquet as defensive POY. I'm not sure who I would have picked either as Tyler, Quinn, Amile and Sheed all exhibited deficiencies on D.

I think Rodney is a superb individual, one-on-one defender, but I think he's below average as far as Duke standards go with team defence as a starter. He was especially awful in blocking out.

[johnb]

I’m Sold….If we get Turner, I Think the tipping point is Tyus. What Big would not want to play with this assist machine. Can’t wait!!

Having followed recruiting gossip and watched the all star games:

If the Big (MT) wants to go pro after one year, he's probably going to want to be a starter and play starter's minutes. While he's routinely rated #2 in his class and to have a higher ceiling than Jahlil, Myles looked to me to be a guy with a world of talent but without the this-minute ability to function at the level of guys like Tyus, Justise, and Jahlil, much less an experienced player like Amile.

Aside from the allure of Austin (with local heroism, an unusually good returning team--for Texas, and Durant's ghost), Turner would likely not start at Duke. He'd be a great 6th man (or co-6th man along with Quinn), and stranger things could happen: maybe he could bump Amile out of the starting 5, and presumably they would play comparable minutes with Myles getting some of Marshall's center minutes when Jahlil is off the floor). Maybe we'd go 3 shortish and two tallish players (TJ, QC, RS, MT, and JO), but I'm assuming that with a great PG and great C, a big priority is a having a strong wing on the floor. Since Winslow has been so impressive, I just don't see how he doesn't start. If so, we are unlikely to keep 4 freshmen on the floor at the same time. If Myles wants to be featured and be a top 5 pick in 2015, his all star experience might have made him concerned that he is simply not as good as Jahlil and that a year of playing and practicing alongside him would only underscore that difference when it came time to the 2015 draft.

If he's worried about that comparison, Duke wouldn't be a great spot. OTOH, we'd have scouts at all of the competitive games, and he'd get 20" a game in which the other team simply couldn't key on him, and the NBA draft is based on potential, and so the scouts could grumble that he is being underutilized at Duke, but they'd still draft him in the top 3--and he'd have had a chance to practice for a year against our cluster of top-flight tall guys.

[CDu]

Greg Paulus led the ACC in assists as a freshman in 2006 as the starting point guard on the ACC championship team that finished No. 1 in the nation.

Just saying ...

And after that? Just saying.

Paulus had the good fortune of being able to pass to one of the most prolific shooters in college basketball history as a freshman. That he only averaged 5.2 assists on the #1 team in the nation with two first-team All-Americans and an alley-oop machine is not overly impressive. Especially from the #1 PG in the class. The "led the ACC in assists" was entirely buoyed by having Redick and Williams as easy assists and by the ACC having a down year in terms of PG play overall. Bobby Frasor finished third that year, and a SG finished 5th. In any other year in the past decade, Paulus wouldn't have been close to the top spot in assists (this year - another down year for PG - would have been closest).

And after that, Paulus got progressively worse: 3.8 assists per game as a sophomore; 3.2 assists per game as a junior; moved off the PG and benched as a senior. So I don't think that folks are going to be pleased if Tyus Jones performs the way Paulus did.

[Kedsy]

Turner would likely not start at Duke.

My guess is he would start, at least he would if he's truly capable of being a one-and-done, top 5 pick, but he might not get much more than 20 or 25 mpg. Your point about having four freshman on the floor at the same time is a good one. I suspect Coach K would avoid that, but it would make the rotation a bit trickier to manage.

[Kedsy]

And after that? Just saying.

Paulus had the good fortune of being able to pass to one of the most prolific shooters in college basketball history as a freshman. That he only averaged 5.2 assists on the #1 team in the nation with two first-team All-Americans and an alley-oop machine is not overly impressive. Especially from the #1 PG in the class. The "led the ACC in assists" was entirely buoyed by having Redick and Williams as easy assists and by the ACC having a down year in terms of PG play overall. Bobby Frasor finished third that year, and a SG finished 5th. In any other year in the past decade, Paulus wouldn't have been close to the top spot in assists (this year - another down year for PG - would have been closest).

And after that, Paulus got progressively worse: 3.8 assists per game as a sophomore; 3.2 assists per game as a junior; moved off the PG and benched as a senior. So I don't think that folks are going to be pleased if Tyus Jones performs the way Paulus did.

I agree that people would be disappointed if Tyus is no better than Greg Paulus was. But I think you're being a bit harsh on Greg. He was on the second-team All America freshman team. As a junior he made third-team All ACC. As a sophomore he played hurt most of the year but still managed 11.8 ppg, 3.8 apg, and shot 45% from three-point range. He was a pretty good player, despite not being an outstanding athlete.

All that said, Greg Paulus had major deficiencies on defense, but we don't know yet how Tyus will stack up on that end. I think Greg's biggest problem during his time at Duke was he didn't live up to the fans' expectations, and that wasn't really his fault.

[sagegrouse]

I agree that people would be disappointed if Tyus is no better than Greg Paulus was. But I think you're being a bit harsh on Greg. He was on the second-team All America freshman team. As a junior he made third-team All ACC. As a sophomore he played hurt most of the year but still managed 11.8 ppg, 3.8 apg, and shot 45% from three-point range. He was a pretty good player, despite not being an outstanding athlete.

All that said, Greg Paulus had major deficiencies on defense, but we don't know yet how Tyus will stack up on that end. I think Greg's biggest problem during his time at Duke was he didn't live up to the fans' expectations, and that wasn't really his fault.

Amen, brother (or sister), amen! and, for that matter, you can take out the name "Greg" and substitute "Casey Sanders," "Josh McRoberts," "Taymon Domzalski," or a bunch of other names. Some recruits do not develop to be as good as coaches or fans expect. It isn't their fault.

[CDu]

I agree that people would be disappointed if Tyus is no better than Greg Paulus was. But I think you're being a bit harsh on Greg. He was on the second-team All America freshman team. As a junior he made third-team All ACC. As a sophomore he played hurt most of the year but still managed 11.8 ppg, 3.8 apg, and shot 45% from three-point range. He was a pretty good player, despite not being an outstanding athlete.

All that said, Greg Paulus had major deficiencies on defense, but we don't know yet how Tyus will stack up on that end. I think Greg's biggest problem during his time at Duke was he didn't live up to the fans' expectations, and that wasn't really his fault.

Again, I credit Paulus' freshman year success to having Redick and Williams and to having a down year nationally for PG overall. And Paulus turned himself into a decent SG by his junior year. I agree he became a decent player; he just wasn't a decent PG. As a PG, his career had to be viewed as a disappointment by any reasonable expectation. When you're the #1 PG in your high school class and you then play so poorly at PG that you get benched (for a SG) by your senior year, I think it is fairly reasonable to say that you weren't as good as advertised.

I don't mean to bash Paulus. Like McRoberts, I think he was more limited than the recruiting "experts" realized. And I think he was misevaluated by almost everyone (like McRoberts). Clearly he wasn't as talented a PG as everyone (including our coaching staff) thought he was.

And that's my point; if Jones comes in, has a solid but unspectacular freshman year, then plays poorly enough at PG over the next two years that the staff has to redesign the offense to hide his limitations as a PG, and then ultimately bench him in favor of a SG at PG during his senior year, that will be a disappointment. That isn't to say it is Jones's fault (just like it wasn't McRoberts' fault or Paulus' fault). But it will be a disappointing result nonetheless.

[CDu]

Amen, brother (or sister), amen! and, for that matter, you can take out the name "Greg" and substitute "Casey Sanders," "Josh McRoberts," "Taymon Domzalski," or a bunch of other names. Some recruits do not develop to be as good as coaches or fans expect. It isn't their fault.

I totally agree (as you can see in my response to Kedsy in another post). I was never intending to place blame/fault on the players in this thread. I was just pointing out facts. High school success doesn't always translate to college success. Paulus, to a lesser degree McRoberts, and to a greater degree Sanders, Domzalski, etc., illustrate that.

Those guys weren't as good as scouts, recruiting "experts", and even coaches thought. That's not their fault. Recruiting isn't an exact science, and you can never tell for sure how well a kid's talents will translate as the quality of competition increases.

Paulus looked to the world like the second coming of Bobby Hurley in high school. He was an assist machine. Clearly, he wasn't as talented as folks thought, as his lack of quickness made him a liability defensively and (combined with shaky ballhandling) made him unable to attack with the dribble and create for others against pressure defense (the infamous turning of the back to the hoop whenever a defender got near him).

Again, that's not Paulus's fault. It's the experts' fault for misevaluating him. But the result is still a disappointing outcome for the fans. And if Jones' career follows the same path as Paulus' career, it will be disappointing for fans though in no way his fault.

[tommy]

Not to be a debbie-downer, but I'm gonna be a debbie-downer: Greg Paulus played in the 2005 McDonald's game (9 assists, 1 turnover) and the 2005 Nike Hoops Summit (10 assists, 2 turnovers). So he had 19 assists and just 3 turnovers in 2 all star game appearances. That obviously didn't translate to the next level.

That being said, I'm absolutely hoping that Tyus Jones isn't another Greg Paulus. Not that Paulus was a terrible player; he just wasn't nearly the PG we had hoped he'd be. We need Jones to be MUCH better than that.

If he's not, I'll eat my hat.

I don't think there's one aspect of the game in which Tyus isn't superior to Paulus, and in several, he's clearly superior. Possibly long-range shooting could be the only exception, but Tyus can stroke it too, and I won't be surprised if he hurts a bunch of teams who don't guard him closely enough out there.

[CDu]

If he's not, I'll eat my hat.

I don't think there's one aspect of the game in which Tyus isn't superior to Paulus, and in several, he's clearly superior. Possibly long-range shooting could be the only exception, but Tyus can stroke it too, and I won't be surprised if he hurts a bunch of teams who don't guard him closely enough out there.

I am inclined to agree, and I certainly hope so. Jones definitely looks quicker, which was the biggest problem for Paulus. When Paulus had space, he was a good player; it's just that folks quickly figured out that he struggled against pressure and didn't have the quicks to shake pressure. Jones seems to have better quickness/shiftiness than Paulus. He's probably not as strong as Paulus (which could hurt him finishing through contact and on defense), but Paulus never seemed able to really use that strength to his advantage anyway.

I definitely don't expect Jones to struggle the way Paulus did, but I'm always wary until they actually play against the big boys.

[jipops]

I totally agree (as you can see in my response to Kedsy in another post). I was never intending to place blame/fault on the players in this thread. I was just pointing out facts. High school success doesn't always translate to college success. Paulus, to a lesser degree McRoberts, and to a greater degree Sanders, Domzalski, etc., illustrate that.

Those guys weren't as good as scouts, recruiting "experts", and even coaches thought. That's not their fault. Recruiting isn't an exact science, and you can never tell for sure how well a kid's talents will translate as the quality of competition increases.

Paulus looked to the world like the second coming of Bobby Hurley in high school. He was an assist machine. Clearly, he wasn't as talented as folks thought, as his lack of quickness made him a liability defensively and (combined with shaky ballhandling) made him unable to attack with the dribble and create for others against pressure defense (the infamous turning of the back to the hoop whenever a defender got near him).

Again, that's not Paulus's fault. It's the experts' fault for misevaluating him. But the result is still a disappointing outcome for the fans. And if Jones' career follows the same path as Paulus' career, it will be disappointing for fans though in no way his fault.

Paulus had an rsci ranking of 13. Tyus Jones currently comes in at #5. It would be a larger mis-evaluation if Jones ends up having a career similar to Paulus. But I certainly get the point about not letting expectations get too high. I'm actually feeling that way more about Winslow, who I really like as a player from what I've seen, but appears to have a ways to go in developing offensively. Which is perfectly normal for the majority of players not ranked in the top 5.


If he's not, I'll eat my hat.

I don't think there's one aspect of the game in which Tyus isn't superior to Paulus, and in several, he's clearly superior. Possibly long-range shooting could be the only exception, but Tyus can stroke it too, and I won't be surprised if he hurts a bunch of teams who don't guard him closely enough out there.

Paulus' 3 pt shooting improved a great deal by his sophomore year over his freshman year.

[CDu]

Paulus had an rsci ranking of 13. Tyus Jones currently comes in at #5. It would be a larger mis-evaluation if Jones ends up having a career similar to Paulus. But I certainly get the point about not letting expectations get too high. I'm actually feeling that way more about Winslow, who I really like as a player from what I've seen, but appears to have a ways to go in developing offensively. Which is perfectly normal for the majority of players not ranked in the top 5.

Yeah, I agree. I'm only a little worried with Jones. And I wouldn't be worried at all if it weren't for Paulus. I agree that Winslow is a bit more questionable than Jones. Not only because he's a little less heralded as a recruit (in the 10-15 range), but also because he could be one of those "jack of all trades, master of none" guys that don't quite translate fully to the next level.

But even with him, I'm not that worried. Just a little worried.

[MaxAMillion]

I totally agree (as you can see in my response to Kedsy in another post). I was never intending to place blame/fault on the players in this thread. I was just pointing out facts. High school success doesn't always translate to college success. Paulus, to a lesser degree McRoberts, and to a greater degree Sanders, Domzalski, etc., illustrate that.

Those guys weren't as good as scouts, recruiting "experts", and even coaches thought. That's not their fault. Recruiting isn't an exact science, and you can never tell for sure how well a kid's talents will translate as the quality of competition increases.

Paulus looked to the world like the second coming of Bobby Hurley in high school. He was an assist machine. Clearly, he wasn't as talented as folks thought, as his lack of quickness made him a liability defensively and (combined with shaky ballhandling) made him unable to attack with the dribble and create for others against pressure defense (the infamous turning of the back to the hoop whenever a defender got near him).

Again, that's not Paulus's fault. It's the experts' fault for misevaluating him. But the result is still a disappointing outcome for the fans. And if Jones' career follows the same path as Paulus' career, it will be disappointing for fans though in no way his fault.

Exactly...all I read was that Matt Jones was a great shooter. He gets to Duke and can't hit anything. I mean he looked like he couldn't even see the basket with some of his shots. Not every kid has a game that translate from high school to college.

[jipops]

Yeah, I agree. I'm only a little worried with Jones. And I wouldn't be worried at all if it weren't for Paulus. I agree that Winslow is a bit more questionable than Jones. Not only because he's a little less heralded as a recruit (in the 10-15 range), but also because he could be one of those "jack of all trades, master of none" guys that don't quite translate fully to the next level.

But even with him, I'm not that worried. Just a little worried.

I'm not worried about Winslow either. But that's probably because I don't see him being a true impact player until his sophomore or junior year. But by then he could be a terrific weapon.

[CDu]

I'm not worried about Winslow either. But that's probably because I don't see him being a true impact player until his sophomore or junior year. But by then he could be a terrific weapon.

That's a fair point. If one is expecting Winslow to be Michael Kidd-Gilchrist 2.0 as a freshman, they may be setting themselves up for disappointment. If they are expecting him to be serviceable as a freshman and make a big impact as a sophomore or junior, they probably have the right mindset going in.

[FireOgilvie]

Having followed recruiting gossip and watched the all star games:

Aside from the allure of Austin (with local heroism, an unusually good returning team--for Texas, and Durant's ghost), Turner would likely not start at Duke. He'd be a great 6th man (or co-6th man along with Quinn), and stranger things could happen: maybe he could bump Amile out of the starting 5, and presumably they would play comparable minutes with Myles getting some of Marshall's center minutes when Jahlil is off the floor). Maybe we'd go 3 shortish and two tallish players (TJ, QC, RS, MT, and JO), but I'm assuming that with a great PG and great C, a big priority is a having a strong wing on the floor. Since Winslow has been so impressive, I just don't see how he doesn't start. If so, we are unlikely to keep 4 freshmen on the floor at the same time. If Myles wants to be featured and be a top 5 pick in 2015, his all star experience might have made him concerned that he is simply not as good as Jahlil and that a year of playing and practicing alongside him would only underscore that difference when it came time to the 2015 draft.



I think that Turner would almost certainly start at PF and he would probably get 25+ minutes a game (~same minutes as Jahlil). He would be Jahlil's backup at center for 5-10 along with Marshall and split the game minutes at PF with Amile. There's no way you would keep him off the floor with his height and athleticism. Turner is probably 3-4 inches taller than Amile (I don't think Amile is actually his listed 6'9" - more like 6'7"). Not only that, but he has a solid three point stroke as well. He would solve the spacing problem that we will have with Amile and Jabari.

I actually believe that Duke is the best fit for Turner as far as available space on a good title contending team. He's the perfect complement to what we already have. If he goes to Texas, he'll play just as much, but for a much worse team. KU is good, but more of a logjam with Alexander, Ellis, Lucas, and Oubre, and if I'm Turner, I would rather play with an assist-machine like Tyus (or Quinn) than Tharpe (unless he wants tips on how to pick up older married women (http://www.kctv5.com/story/25146564/bill-self-weighs-punishing-tharpe-for-lewd-picture-on-twitter)). I think the reason Turner probably won't end up here is because it's too far away from his family, but we'll see.

[jipops]

I actually believe that Duke is the best fit for Turner as far as available space on a good title contending team. He's the perfect complement to what we already have. If he goes to Texas, he'll play just as much, but for a much worse team.

Can't really agree with you there. Texas brings everybody back and with Turner they're a legit title contender.

[Duvall]

Can't really agree with you there. Texas brings everybody back and with Turner they're a legit title contender.

Did I miss some news in the Coaching Carousel thread?

[FireOgilvie]

Can't really agree with you there. Texas brings everybody back and with Turner they're a legit title contender.

A legit title contender? They might be a contender for 2nd place in the Big 12, but that's about it. Rick Barnes couldn't even get past the 2nd (now "3rd") round of the Tournament with Kevin Durant and DJ Augustin. They finished 11-7 in the Big 12 this year (tied for 3rd). KU will win the Big 12 title again for the 11th straight year. I believe Duke will absolutely be a much better team than Texas next year and out of the teams Turner is looking at, Texas is maybe the 3rd best option (although they could even be 4th behind SMU with Mudiay).

[FireOgilvie]

Can't really agree with you there. Texas brings everybody back and with Turner they're a legit title contender.

In addition to my previous post, I would say if Turner comes to Duke or KU, that team will become the pre-season number 1. Not true for Texas.

[NashvilleDevil]

Did I miss some news in the Coaching Carousel thread?

So wish I had sporks. This is hilarious.

[TexHawk]

A legit title contender? They might be a contender for 2nd place in the Big 12, but that's about it. Rick Barnes couldn't even get past the 2nd (now "3rd") round of the Tournament with Kevin Durant and DJ Augustin. They finished 11-7 in the Big 12 this year (tied for 3rd). KU will win the Big 12 title again for the 11th straight year. I believe Duke will absolutely be a much better team than Texas next year and out of the teams Turner is looking at, Texas is maybe the 3rd best option (although they could even be 4th behind SMU with Mudiay).

Texas will be "good" by default because they are the only team in the conference that brings everyone back. They fell off a bit in the 2nd half of the year, Isaiah Taylor hit the freshman wall pretty hard. I wouldn't pencil them in as Final 4 favorites or anything, but they should hover around the Top 10 most of the season (I expect them to land Turner).

[TexHawk]

KU is good, but more of a logjam with Alexander, Ellis, Lucas, and Oubre, and if I'm Turner, I would rather play with an assist-machine like Tyus (or Quinn) than Tharpe (unless he wants tips on how to pick up older married women (http://www.kctv5.com/story/25146564/bill-self-weighs-punishing-tharpe-for-lewd-picture-on-twitter)).

Oubre's presence will have no affect on Turner, Oubre will take Wiggins's minutes, and Lucas is a career backup. The guys Turner could be concerned about are Jamari Traylor (3rd year in the system) and Hunter Mickelson (transfer from Arkansas). But those two are easily less talented, so I would think that after the November jitters, Turner would get the same amount of minutes as Cliff. He might not start, but would get plenty of playing time. IMO he would be a fantastic fit in the hi-lo with Alexander.

And God bless DBR, the only place left that thinks Perry Ellis is a great player. He will undoubtedly start, but Turner would get crunch time minutes due to his defense, and Perry couldn't guard my niece at this point. It's most likely moot, because as I said before, Turner is likely Austin-bound.


Side note... I will send you $5 if Tharpe is on the team in July.

[Troublemaker]

Side note... I will send you $5 if Tharpe is on the team in July.

Who's going to be your point guard next season, TexHawk? Frankamp? Whom do you prefer at this point?

[Troublemaker]

It's most likely moot, because as I said before, Turner is likely Austin-bound.

Man, what if Duke gets him? We have the last in-home tomorrow according to twitter.

Duke's been on a hot streak lately of getting recruits.

Jones/Okafor --> Winslow --> Kennard --> Obi. That's 5 in a row, soon to be 6 in a row with Jeter. I would argue it's already 6 in a row by counting Grayson because I'm not sure if Duke wanted Looney or Travis all that badly. The guys we've really wanted badly, we've gotten lately. Let's see if Myles breaks that streak.

[UrinalCake]

That's a fair point. If one is expecting Winslow to be Michael Kidd-Gilchrist 2.0 as a freshman, they may be setting themselves up for disappointment. If they are expecting him to be serviceable as a freshman and make a big impact as a sophomore or junior, they probably have the right mindset going in.

Totally agree. I think those who are penciling Winslow in as a starter next year are going to be disappointed. From everything I know about Duke basketball, it is far more likely that we start the season with a Jones-Cook-Sulaimon backcourt than Jones-Sulaimon-Winslow.

[Ichabod Drain]

Man, what if Duke gets him? We have the last in-home tomorrow according to twitter.

Duke's been on a hot streak lately of getting recruits.

Jones/Okafor --> Winslow --> Kennard --> Obi. That's 5 in a row, soon to be 6 in a row with Jeter. I would argue it's already 6 in a row by counting Grayson because I'm not sure if Duke wanted Looney or Travis all that badly. The guys we've really wanted badly, we've gotten lately. Let's see if Myles breaks that streak.

I don't know about the rest of Duke fans but I wanted Reid Travis... badly. More than I wanted Allen, Kennard, and Obi. And that's not a rip on those guys. If Travis committed to Duke it's highly unlikely we show any interest in Obi at all.

[yancem]

One thing to remember with Paulus is that he had some injuries during his time at Duke. I'm not saying that he was ever a speed demon or lightning quick but he came in and started for a top 5 team his freshman year and was very solid with 5.2 apg and 6.7 ppg. I still had high expectations for him after that first year and don't remember being terribly worried about his speed/quickness but after he cam back from his first leg injury (don't remember the specifics) he seemed slower and not the same player. He quickly became more of a shooter and less of a dishing/penetrating point guard. I also think that the pressure put on him and McRoberts as sophomore team leaders hurt both of their development. There were also some chemistry issues that may have been a factor but I'm still not sure who was at fault and who wasn't (heard some stories pointing blame but not sure what is fact and what is fiction) so I won't add any more than that.

[cspan37421]

Just found this thread, and I think it's pretty impressive that Michael teamed up with Elton to sponsor this annual all-star game.



;)

[TexHawk]

Who's going to be your point guard next season, TexHawk? Frankamp? Whom do you prefer at this point?

Frankamp + Mason. There are rumors that Devonte Graham could transfer in, but he probably ends up at NCSU. Bill will also make Wayne Selden walk/eat/sleep with a basketball all summer.

Frankamp will hopefully start (I think he will be an all-conference player by 2015-16). Mason as the backup, and will play more against the small penetrating PGs of the Big12 (Staten, Taylor).

Starters:
Frankamp
Selden
Oubre
Ellis (Turner would take this spot by January if he commits)
Alexander

Bench: Ellis, Traylor, Mason, Greene, Mickelson. Lucas will play when Alexander gets in early foul trouble.

PG is obviously the weak link (again), but I will take the Selden-Oubre-Alexander trio over anyone in the country. If Turner were to commit, that could be 4 top 10 draft picks next summer.

I don't think that's a championship team necessarily... Selden will need to build on his freshman year where he deferred to Wiggins way too much. Perimeter defense will still be a problem, perimeter shooting may be problematic (at least with the starters). Should be a fun team to watch though.

[COYS]

Totally agree. I think those who are penciling Winslow in as a starter next year are going to be disappointed. From everything I know about Duke basketball, it is far more likely that we start the season with a Jones-Cook-Sulaimon backcourt than Jones-Sulaimon-Winslow.

I don't doubt the wisdom of this post. I think it is generally a good idea to temper expectations for freshman who rank outside the top 5 (top 5 freshman have an illustrious history at Duke).

However, I think we got to see a glimpse of who Winslow can be during the Nike Hoops Summit game. No, Winslow didn't do much in the Jordan Brand Classic, but in a real team game like the Hoops Summit, he was a do-it-all utility man who, along with Tyus Jones, fueled some of Team USA's best runs. He created havoc on defense which led to a few steals and easy jams/lay-ins. He can fly in transition, which makes his ability to get in the passing lanes even more potent. He's also a solid ball handler. He doesn't appear to be a dead-eye shooter and he doesn't have the experience that Rasheed and Quinn have, but he clearly brings a lot to the table. And his qualities appear to come out best in a team game. Floor spacing will certainly be a concern next season, but if two of Tyus, Rasheed, and Quinn are capable of knocking down three pointers, then that might be enough to put a versatile defender and rebounder like Justise in the game. And while he doesn't have three point range, he is reported to be a solid mid-range shooter. If he can handle the ball at the free throw line and is a threat to score from there, he might create just enough space to get him some big minutes if he proves to be a really good defender.

[Gilby_10]

Lets look at the last two teams to start 2 small guards and have pretty good success... Well we had Louisville in 2013 with Russ Smith and Peyton Siva, they happened to be a pretty good team that cut down the nets. Then we had UConn in 2014 with Napier and Boatright, now they probably weren't the best team in the nation this year but they showed that dominate guard play can take over games. I would like to see a line-up with Cook playing off the ball because in his 3 years he has proved he cannot handle the pg duties and Jones the dominate ball handler. considering Duke will only have one senior next year it will be important that Cook have a strong season, the years Duke has had their senior captains on the floor they have been way more competitive. I think Winslow will be a huge factor off the bench mostly on the defensive end, he will bring that physicality at the SF position we have been missing since Singler

[richardjackson199]

Lets look at the last two teams to start 2 small guards and have pretty good success... Well we had Louisville in 2013 with Russ Smith and Peyton Siva, they happened to be a pretty good team that cut down the nets. Then we had UConn in 2014 with Napier and Boatright, now they probably weren't the best team in the nation this year but they showed that dominate guard play can take over games. I would like to see a line-up with Cook playing off the ball because in his 3 years he has proved he cannot handle the pg duties and Jones the dominate ball handler. considering Duke will only have one senior next year it will be important that Cook have a strong season, the years Duke has had their senior captains on the floor they have been way more competitive. I think Winslow will be a huge factor off the bench mostly on the defensive end, he will bring that physicality at the SF position we have been missing since Singler

I love the idea of starting Tyus Jones, Quinn Cook, and Rasheed Sulaimon. Myles Turner should love this idea too. Those are 3 guys who have shown their phenomenal willingness to create Sportscenter-worthy assists. They are 3 guys who can also space the floor with their shot. Okafor is going to get lots of attention in the post, meaning at Duke with those guys passing him the ball Turner would really get a chance to showcase his skillset on national TV in front of lots of NBA scouts. If Turner wants to be ready to play in the NBA after one year, he needs to not be worried about losing minutes to a guy like Amile Jefferson who is shorter, less of a rim protector, and hasn't shown the mid-range jump-shooting ability of Turner. If he can't earn minutes at the 4 vs. Amile, then he probably isn't ready to earn minutes in the NBA against an NBA starting power forward. But the truth is he is good enough to earn plenty of minutes at the 4 for Duke next year. If anything he could learn alot from Jefferson, and they could both get plenty of minutes at the 4, focusing on good defense without having to worry as much about fouling out.

This would also still leave plenty of minutes for Winslow at the 3 who is another guy Turner should love to play with. Reportedly everybody loves to play with Winslow and Tyus Jones.

I hated hearing that Duke is virtually out of it for Turner, because I really think he could be the final piece to a national championship level team next year. He possesses all the skills we need at our position of greatest need. Obviously we can't avoid freshman inexperience at this point, but good freshmen with some upper class leadership from guys like Rasheed and Quinn could win it all.

Turner could really help Duke accomplish their goals next year. Duke could really help Turner accomplish his. I'm going to hold out a glimmer of hope since Coach K has an in-home with Turner on Wed. Coach K can be the master of the in-home. I know Coach K has a much better plan than mine above for turning Turner.

[tommy]

I don't doubt the wisdom of this post. I think it is generally a good idea to temper expectations for freshman who rank outside the top 5 (top 5 freshman have an illustrious history at Duke).

However, I think we got to see a glimpse of who Winslow can be during the Nike Hoops Summit game. No, Winslow didn't do much in the Jordan Brand Classic, but in a real team game like the Hoops Summit, he was a do-it-all utility man who, along with Tyus Jones, fueled some of Team USA's best runs. He created havoc on defense which led to a few steals and easy jams/lay-ins. He can fly in transition, which makes his ability to get in the passing lanes even more potent. He's also a solid ball handler. He doesn't appear to be a dead-eye shooter and he doesn't have the experience that Rasheed and Quinn have, but he clearly brings a lot to the table. And his qualities appear to come out best in a team game. Floor spacing will certainly be a concern next season, but if two of Tyus, Rasheed, and Quinn are capable of knocking down three pointers, then that might be enough to put a versatile defender and rebounder like Justise in the game. And while he doesn't have three point range, he is reported to be a solid mid-range shooter. If he can handle the ball at the free throw line and is a threat to score from there, he might create just enough space to get him some big minutes if he proves to be a really good defender.

I like that last thought. We really struggled at times against the zone last year when Amile was at the free throw line, but he couldn't/wouldn't shoot that free throw line jumpshot. We did better when Rodney or Jabari manned that spot. But Winslow would be the perfect guy there. He can definitely hit that shot, but he also would be able to drive past those charging back-of the-zone guys and take it to the hoop strong. Perfect for him.

[jipops]

A legit title contender? They might be a contender for 2nd place in the Big 12, but that's about it. Rick Barnes couldn't even get past the 2nd (now "3rd") round of the Tournament with Kevin Durant and DJ Augustin. They finished 11-7 in the Big 12 this year (tied for 3rd). KU will win the Big 12 title again for the 11th straight year. I believe Duke will absolutely be a much better team than Texas next year and out of the teams Turner is looking at, Texas is maybe the 3rd best option (although they could even be 4th behind SMU with Mudiay).

By that logic, what does that say about K?

Yea, I think Barnes is pretty mediocre as a coach but Texas has quite a few experienced options next season, not just one or two guys. They bring back 4 double figure scorers. Add Turner then yea, it's as realistic for them to be a title contender as it is for Barnes to screw it up.

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

I like that last thought. We really struggled at times against the zone last year when Amile was at the free throw line, but he couldn't/wouldn't shoot that free throw line jumpshot. We did better when Rodney or Jabari manned that spot. But Winslow would be the perfect guy there. He can definitely hit that shot, but he also would be able to drive past those charging back-of the-zone guys and take it to the hoop strong. Perfect for him.
And perhaps Amile, recognizing what appears to be tidal wave movement toward zone defense, will be working this summer on his 12-15 ft jumper. He can already take the ball to the hoop with some effectiveness. Adding a mid range shot will make him even more valuable.

[Troublemaker]

I don't know about the rest of Duke fans but I wanted Reid Travis... badly.

Yeah, I was a "that fan" on the previous post with my "Duke didn't really want him that badly" stuff. Even if it could be confirmed by insiders, it's better left unsaid. I'll try not to be "that fan" again.



Frankamp will hopefully start (I think he will be an all-conference player by 2015-16).

He did do really well on one of the USA youth teams, as I'm sure you know. Was the scoring leader on a team that included Jabari, Jahlil, Tyus, and other big names. Frankamp might surprise nationally next season.

[COYS]

I'm late to the party and finally got a chance to finish watching the game. A lot has already been said, but I thought I'd add just a little bit more.

First, I was truly impressed with how well Jahlil moves on the court. He was extremely quick and looked slimmer than I've ever seen him. He got down the floor for easy buckets time and time again. Obviously, when the defense isn't hustling, it's easy to accomplish this. However, I still think it bodes well for his conditioning, which is something that has been mentioned as a minor concern for him. I was also impressed with his lateral quickness. He's not going to guard opposing point guards every time down the court, of course, but he's got the quickness to hedge and recover on defense.

Tyus was really smooth. I thought it was telling that in a wide open all star game in which guards, forwards, and centers frequently take the ball coast to coast simply for the fun of it, Tyus' teammates consistently made sure he got the ball to run the offense. He created so many easy baskets for his teammates and seems like a really fun guy to play with, on the court. He's an excellent ball handler (there was a notable difference in how smooth the East's offense looked when Tyus was on the court vs. when Grayson and James Blackman were in, together), and keeps his head up. He didn't face any really tough defense, nor did he apply any, but his vision and passing ability were on display. He made absolutely sure to reward Jahlil for sprinting down the court by giving him the ball every time he was open.

Grayson's biggest area for improvement on offense will be his ballhandling. He's not bad, but he got himself into a few bad situations because his handle isn't quite as sharp as it could be. However, he has a competitive fire and seems to ooze confidence. I still think he'll be scraping for minutes next year, but he has the physical tools to be a dominant force on both ends of the court before all is said and done.

Justise didn't have any highlight reel plays, but I actually thought he looked pretty good. He made some great defensive plays, came up with a few steals, was the first person on the West to set up their press at the end of the game (when his teammates often forgot or didn't bother to set it up), and even knocked down a three. He also had a nice drive and kick which showed his ball handling ability. The shooter (I can't remember who it was) missed the shot, denying him the assist. However, he looked really smooth. As I've said before, I think he'll thrive in a real team game, just as he did at the Hoops Summit. If we lacked anything last season, it was a defense-first player with the physical ability to match his instincts for the game (Tyler has great basketball instincts, but at 6-0 he was just a little small and a little slow compared to some of the guys he faced). Whether or not he'll learn Duke's defense quickly as a freshman remains to be seen, but I have high hopes that he'll carve out a role. I hesitate to compare him to such a successful NBA star, but he can play an Iquodala type role. He's got great athleticism and strength for a 6-6 guy. He seems to relish the role of defensive bulldog. He seems to have a solid handle and at least decent vision (I'd bet he'll prove a pretty good passer for a small forward). And, perhaps best of all, he doesn't need the ball in his hands to be effective on offense. In fact, I would venture to say he's probably better as a third/fourth option on offense who can clean up on the glass and slash to the hoop. Something tells me the staff and the fans are going to love the havoc he creates on defense. He might not start, but I see him having a rather large role next season.

[duke09hms]

Totally agree. I think those who are penciling Winslow in as a starter next year are going to be disappointed. From everything I know about Duke basketball, it is far more likely that we start the season with a Jones-Cook-Sulaimon backcourt than Jones-Sulaimon-Winslow.

Perhaps but K did say defense would be an emphasis. The Jones-Cook-Sheed backcourt would get destroyed on defense.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Perhaps but K did say defense would be an emphasis. The Jones-Cook-Sheed backcourt would get destroyed on defense.

This. This. This. And this.

The Jones-Cook-Sulaimon line-up looks great offensively: possibly the best ball-handling trio in college, good-to-great 3pt shooting, driving, spin-moves, passing...it has it all!

On defense? Different story. Somehow, Sulaimon didn't improve on D that much from last year. Cook is gets burned and is too quick to go for steals. And if Jones is already being criticized in high school as a subpar defender, how is he going to perform in college?

We need a M. Jones or Winslow out there to help with the D. I'd be shocked if we started the ACC with Jones, Cook, and Sulaimon.

[UrinalCake]

Perhaps but K did say defense would be an emphasis. The Jones-Cook-Sheed backcourt would get destroyed on defense.

I know we're all kind of in a sour mood from how the season ended, but my skepticism regarding Winslow comes mostly from seeing Gbinije ride the pine, who I see as a similar player to Winslow. The whole season we were dying for someone who could guard the big wings, yet Coach K continued to play three of Tyler, Quinn, Seth, and Rivers in the back court. Which makes me think that it is really hard for a defensive-only player to get minutes as a freshman. Matt Jones did get some burn this year, and I could see Winslow getting similar minutes this coming season, but I'm just not among those who foresee him starting and playing 30 minutes, unless he really REALLY exceeds expectations, like to an almost unprecedented degree.

With that said, I am definitely looking forward to seeing what he can do and watching him develop over the next few years.

[CDu]

I know we're all kind of in a sour mood from how the season ended, but my skepticism regarding Winslow comes mostly from seeing Gbinije ride the pine, who I see as a similar player to Winslow. The whole season we were dying for someone who could guard the big wings, yet Coach K continued to play three of Tyler, Quinn, Seth, and Rivers in the back court. Which makes me think that it is really hard for a defensive-only player to get minutes as a freshman. Matt Jones did get some burn this year, and I could see Winslow getting similar minutes this coming season, but I'm just not among those who foresee him starting and playing 30 minutes, unless he really REALLY exceeds expectations, like to an almost unprecedented degree.

With that said, I am definitely looking forward to seeing what he can do and watching him develop over the next few years.

I think it's important to note that Winslow is a top 10-15 recruit (#12 in the summer RSCI and I suspect not likely to drop by the final RSCI). Gbinije was the #28 player in RSCI. So while the two players may have somewhat similar games, it would appear that Winslow plays that game at a slightly higher level.

In general, with regard to recruits at Duke playing as freshmen:
- top-10 recruits play major minutes
- #11-20 are a mixed bag; some play big minutes right away, some are reserves
- #20+ recruits best hope for glaring holes on the depth chart, because otherwise they aren't playing significant minutes as freshmen

Winslow falls in that gray area between "sure-fire, major minutes guy" and "reserve". But he definitely seems more likely to get minutes as a freshman than Gbinije.

[wk2109]

Perhaps but K did say defense would be an emphasis. The Jones-Cook-Sheed backcourt would get destroyed on defense.

Would Jones-Cook-Sheed be much worse than Curry-Cook-Sheed (Duke's backcourt from 2013)? I know defense is not played in a vacuum -- the big men play a big role in team defense and the 2013 had two senior big men in Mason and Ryan with lots of experience playing Duke defense (though Mason often played matador defense to avoid foul trouble and obviously Ryan was hurt). But I feel like everyone is forgetting that Sheed played the 3 almost exclusively as a freshman, and the 2013 team's defense wasn't that bad.

Considering that Tyus is around the same size as Seth and probably has more lateral quickness than an injured Seth did, I don't think anyone can definitively say that Jones-Cook-Sheed would get 'destroyed' on defense any more than Curry-Cook-Sheed got 'destroyed.' Of course, whether Duke's team defense, including the bigs, is any good is a question left to be answered.

I think K will see how much the rule changes affect his defensive strategy and plan accordingly. I believe the defensive struggles of this year's team were based on three big factors: the rule changes on the perimeter, the inability of Rodney/Jabari to grasp all of the rotations and the lack of a true big man. I don't think a Jones-Cook-Sheed backcourt would prevent Duke from fixing any three of those problems.

[Kedsy]

I know we're all kind of in a sour mood from how the season ended, but my skepticism regarding Winslow comes mostly from seeing Gbinije ride the pine, who I see as a similar player to Winslow. The whole season we were dying for someone who could guard the big wings, yet Coach K continued to play three of Tyler, Quinn, Seth, and Rivers in the back court. Which makes me think that it is really hard for a defensive-only player to get minutes as a freshman. Matt Jones did get some burn this year, and I could see Winslow getting similar minutes this coming season, but I'm just not among those who foresee him starting and playing 30 minutes, unless he really REALLY exceeds expectations, like to an almost unprecedented degree.

With that said, I am definitely looking forward to seeing what he can do and watching him develop over the next few years.

A big difference between Michael Gbinije or Matt Jones and Justise is that Michael and Matt were not nearly as good players as Justise coming out of high school. Historically, a high school recruit rated #28 (as Silent G was) or #34 (as Matt was) rarely breaks into Duke's rotation as a freshman. A high school recruit rated #12 (as Justise is) often starts and almost always plays at least solid rotation minutes at Duke. Your comparison is not apt.

[CDu]

Would Jones-Cook-Sheed be much worse than Curry-Cook-Sheed (Duke's backcourt from 2013)? I know defense is not played in a vacuum -- the big men play a big role in team defense and the 2013 had two senior big men in Mason and Ryan with lots of experience playing Duke defense (though Mason often played matador defense to avoid foul trouble and obviously Ryan was hurt). But I feel like everyone is forgetting that Sheed played the 3 almost exclusively as a freshman, and the 2013 team's defense wasn't that bad.

Considering that Tyus is around the same size as Seth and probably has more lateral quickness than an injured Seth did, I don't think anyone can definitively say that Jones-Cook-Sheed would get 'destroyed' on defense any more than Curry-Cook-Sheed got 'destroyed.' Of course, whether Duke's team defense, including the bigs, is any good is a question left to be answered.

I think K will see how much the rule changes affect his defensive strategy and plan accordingly. I believe the defensive struggles of this year's team were based on three big factors: the rule changes on the perimeter, the inability of Rodney/Jabari to grasp all of the rotations and the lack of a true big man. I don't think a Jones-Cook-Sheed backcourt would prevent Duke from fixing any three of those problems.

Yeah, I'm agnostic about whether or not Jones/Cook/Sulaimon would work defensively. But I'm fully on board with the argument that it could work. Very few teams present size concerns so severe at the SF spot that Sulaimon couldn't work there. And we've seen lots of teams play two smaller guards with great success. Would it be an ideal trio defensively? Probably not. Could it be a good enough defensive trio to warrant the clear benefit that would come offensively? I think so.

[TexHawk]

He did do really well on one of the USA youth teams, as I'm sure you know. Was the scoring leader on a team that included Jabari, Jahlil, Tyus, and other big names. Frankamp might surprise nationally next season.

I DO know this. Frankamp is the KU player I have been the most excited about since... I dunno, Sherron Collins probably. He's a Kansas kid with a mean-streak, and he was just deadly in high school. He needs the ball in his hands, and Coach Self (rightly so) couldn't hand him the keys as a freshman, with 3 likely lottery picks needing the ball. He's not a catch-and-shoot guy, so he played a bit out of position last year.

His problem in 14-15 will be defense and strength, so I hope he sets up camp in Hudy's weight room this summer.

[tommy]

I know we're all kind of in a sour mood from how the season ended, but my skepticism regarding Winslow comes mostly from seeing Gbinije ride the pine, who I see as a similar player to Winslow. The whole season we were dying for someone who could guard the big wings, yet Coach K continued to play three of Tyler, Quinn, Seth, and Rivers in the back court. Which makes me think that it is really hard for a defensive-only player to get minutes as a freshman. Matt Jones did get some burn this year, and I could see Winslow getting similar minutes this coming season, but I'm just not among those who foresee him starting and playing 30 minutes, unless he really REALLY exceeds expectations, like to an almost unprecedented degree.

With that said, I am definitely looking forward to seeing what he can do and watching him develop over the next few years.


I don't see Winslow and Gbinije's games as being all that similar, actually. Justise plays much more physically than does Gbinije, who is more of a finesse guy. His defense is better than Gbinije's too -- I thought this aspect of Gbinije's game was overrated, at least on these boards, when he was at Duke. Part of the "shiny new thing" syndrome.

And while it may or may not be true that it's hard for a defensive-only player to get minutes as a freshman at Duke, Winslow is not a defensive-only player. The kid has plenty of skills at the offensive end too. Plenty.

[Gthoma2a]

I will take the Selden-Oubre-Alexander trio over anyone in the country.

The only part that I will disagree with, as you will be a VERY good team next year. I like Tyus (very good PG), Rasheed, who was trending up last season (and despite the team having a bad loss, he ended his season with a good effort) and Okafor. This goes doubly, since chemistry seemed to be an issue last year. Tyus is a facilitator that will fix chemistry issues, and Rasheed will get to play as our key perimeter scorer. He seemed to have a little bit of difficulty with staying fully engaged, when he wasn't the first option on the perimeter. He will get to stay in rhythm this year. That, and Jahlil is Jahlil. He is one of the most potent offensive weapons in the country, but in an area that was almost unmanned last year (we just didn't have a center last year). If Amile gets a little jumper, he gets that much more effective. I am surely biased, but I'd take our three.

On the discussion about Justise (not towards Texhawk), the difference between him and Gbinije is that Gbinije was a shy kid who, from what I read when he transferred, didn't seem to be comfortable at Duke. I think Justise is out-going and will do just fine. In the spotlight, personality comes into play, as much as talent. Justise does things very well and seems to play with no sense of himself (he looks like a guy who values the team and won't let emotions get in the way of his contributions). He's got everything he needs to be a big piece to the puzzle.

[BD80]

I think it's important to note that Winslow is a top 10-15 recruit (#12 in the summer RSCI and I suspect not likely to drop by the final RSCI). Gbinije was the #28 player in RSCI. So while the two players may have somewhat similar games, it would appear that Winslow plays that game at a slightly higher level.

In general, with regard to recruits at Duke playing as freshmen:
- top-10 recruits play major minutes
- #11-20 are a mixed bag; some play big minutes right away, some are reserves
- #20+ recruits best hope for glaring holes on the depth chart, because otherwise they aren't playing significant minutes as freshmen

Winslow falls in that gray area between "sure-fire, major minutes guy" and "reserve". But he definitely seems more likely to get minutes as a freshman than Gbinije.

Chris Carrawell.

Further, not all recruiting classes are equivalent, 2014 is deep at the top, guys 11-20 would be top 10 other years.

[CDu]

Chris Carrawell.

Further, not all recruiting classes are equivalent, 2014 is deep at the top, guys 11-20 would be top 10 other years.

It's certainly true that not all classes are equivalent. But the trend I listed has held throughout the RSCI era (Carrawell predated that system, and was again a big beneficiary of opportunity as a freshman).

[richardjackson199]

Would Jones-Cook-Sheed be much worse than Curry-Cook-Sheed (Duke's backcourt from 2013)? I know defense is not played in a vacuum -- the big men play a big role in team defense and the 2013 had two senior big men in Mason and Ryan with lots of experience playing Duke defense (though Mason often played matador defense to avoid foul trouble and obviously Ryan was hurt). But I feel like everyone is forgetting that Sheed played the 3 almost exclusively as a freshman, and the 2013 team's defense wasn't that bad.

Considering that Tyus is around the same size as Seth and probably has more lateral quickness than an injured Seth did, I don't think anyone can definitively say that Jones-Cook-Sheed would get 'destroyed' on defense any more than Curry-Cook-Sheed got 'destroyed.' Of course, whether Duke's team defense, including the bigs, is any good is a question left to be answered.

I think K will see how much the rule changes affect his defensive strategy and plan accordingly. I believe the defensive struggles of this year's team were based on three big factors: the rule changes on the perimeter, the inability of Rodney/Jabari to grasp all of the rotations and the lack of a true big man. I don't think a Jones-Cook-Sheed backcourt would prevent Duke from fixing any three of those problems.

I agree with this post. There are merits to both sides of the argument. I believe defense could still be really good with T. Jones, Cook, and Sheed on the floor. Sheed is tall,quick, and can play very good defense. Cook works hard on defense, and I believe as a senior he'll improve on both ends of the floor. Cook should not be trying to guard Olivier Hanlan (and it remains to be seen, but maybe T. Jones shouldn't either). But Sheed could do that. Cook can guard the opposing team's 2 guard if he isn't explosive with speed. And to match up against some teams, we'll need even more minutes from Winslow for his defense.

K is a master at exploiting his team's matchup strengths. Next year's team should afford him a better opportunity to do that. Having bigs inside will help immensely (especially in a perfect world if we get a rim protector like Turner and he spends this offseason working on strength).

I'm very excited about the potential for next year's team. Tyus, Cook, Sheed, Okafor, Justise, Amile, and Myles (if he chooses wisely) will all earn big minutes next year and will have a blast playing with each other. They'll be super fun to watch. Depending on work this off-season, Semi, Matt, Grayson, and especially MP3 could also earn big and crucial roles next year. Obi will be extremely helpful in practice next year.

Can't wait to see how well we play on both ends of the floor. I hope we run lots in transition. We'll certainly be a very different Duke team with different strengths.

[duke09hms]

I know we're all kind of in a sour mood from how the season ended, but my skepticism regarding Winslow comes mostly from seeing Gbinije ride the pine, who I see as a similar player to Winslow. The whole season we were dying for someone who could guard the big wings, yet Coach K continued to play three of Tyler, Quinn, Seth, and Rivers in the back court. Which makes me think that it is really hard for a defensive-only player to get minutes as a freshman. Matt Jones did get some burn this year, and I could see Winslow getting similar minutes this coming season, but I'm just not among those who foresee him starting and playing 30 minutes, unless he really REALLY exceeds expectations, like to an almost unprecedented degree.

With that said, I am definitely looking forward to seeing what he can do and watching him develop over the next few years.

Yep, in 2012 we played a very small backcourt, and at #81 it was the historically worst defense under K in at least a decade plus (Kenpom only goes to 2003) until this year 2014 where we clocked in at 116. Both first-round exits.

Playing a small backcourt is fine if both are athletic enough and laterally quick enough to stay in front of their man.

I'm not pushing for Winslow to start, I think it's way too early to tell, and it's extremely hard to project HS-to-college. But given what we know, I really hope we don't see Quinn and Tyus on the court at the same time, maybe 10 min. max. Sure, MAYBE Quinn could really improve his lateral quickness over the summer so he's not burned over and over by fast guards. And MAYBE Tyus turns out to be a defensive stalwart. I'm hopeful for both those things, but as of now it doesn't seem to be the case.

Someone mentioned 2013 where we had Curry-Cook-Sheed in 2013. I don't think it's fair to compare the senior/junior-heavy 2013 team. Also, their defense wasn't that great either at #31, at least not by the high standards K has set at Duke.

[Duvall]

Someone mentioned 2013 where we had Curry-Cook-Sheed in 2013. I don't think it's fair to compare the senior/junior-heavy 2013 team. Also, their defense wasn't that great either at #31, at least not by the high standards K has set at Duke.

A Cook-Sulaimon-Jefferson lineup wouldn't be senior/junior-heavy? Anyway, the 2013 team had great defensive stats, *except* for the stretch when it was forced to start multiple freshmen.

[wk2109]

Someone mentioned 2013 where we had Curry-Cook-Sheed in 2013. I don't think it's fair to compare the senior/junior-heavy 2013 team. Also, their defense wasn't that great either at #31, at least not by the high standards K has set at Duke.

#31 isn't great, but I wouldn't call it getting "destroyed," which is the word you used. And as mentioned above, that #31 ranking would have been much better if Ryan had stayed healthy all year.

Also, it's not like having a 'big' wing start at the 3 is the key to a stellar defense -- case in point: Rodney Hood in 2014. The 2004 team finished #4 in defense with a Duhon-Ewing-Redick perimeter with Dockery as the main sub.

My point is two-fold:
1. 2013 shows us that a (small guard)-Cook-Sheed backcourt would not necessarily get destroyed on defense.
2. 2004 and 2014 show us that a three-guard lineup can play good defense and a big-wing-at-the-3 lineup can play poor defense.

[Tucknut]

Wow. Nice start for the Tyus-Okafor connection!

[duke09hms]

#31 isn't great, but I wouldn't call it getting "destroyed," which is the word you used. And as mentioned above, that #31 ranking would have been much better if Ryan had stayed healthy all year.

Also, it's not like having a 'big' wing start at the 3 is the key to a stellar defense -- case in point: Rodney Hood in 2014. The 2004 team finished #4 in defense with a Duhon-Ewing-Redick perimeter with Dockery as the main sub.

My point is two-fold:
1. 2013 shows us that a (small guard)-Cook-Sheed backcourt would not necessarily get destroyed on defense.
2. 2004 and 2014 show us that a three-guard lineup can play good defense and a big-wing-at-the-3 lineup can play poor defense.

Well, I did not say the 2013 defense was getting destroyed, I only said their #31 defense is not great by Duke standards.
I DID say the small lineup of Tyus-Quinn-Sheed would get destroyed on defense given what we know now about Quinn/Tyus' defensive capabilities. Quinn gets burned by a lot of ACC starting point guards, and Tyus' reportedly had issues with defense at the all-star training camps. Sure, I definitely hope Tyus and Quinn make huge strides on defense this summer, but we can't assume the best-case scenario.

From these data points, perhaps one truth is that the backcourt either needs to be big/long or they need to be fast.
2004 - sure we had a 3-guard lineup, but Duhon/Dockery/Ewing were MORE than capable of staying in front of their man. Lateral quickness out the a--
2010 - amazing D all around, one would think Scheyer's lack of exceptional lateral quickness would be exploited, but his decent size and great positioning more than made up for it. Nolan wasn't big, but he was agile enough to lock down quick guards. One can imagine Sheed can take on that lockdown role, but Jon and Kyle are not walking through that door. Instead we have Quinn and Tyus. Great players sure, but defensively nowhere near Jon and Kyle who were so smart and had great size for their position.
2012-2014: Quinn and Tyler are both small and not exceptionally blessed with lateral quickness. Would place Seth in this category too, but he was severely hampered by injury in 2013.

If you're not tall/long, you have to be laterally quick. Like Duhon, Dockery, Nolan, DeMarcus
If you're not fast, it helps to be tall/long. Like Scheyer, UCLA's Kyle Anderson. Or exceptionally crafty like Kendall Marshall, Scheyer, and Anderson.

The defensive worst-case is to be slow and small (relative to top D-1 backcourts) like Quinn and Tyler, and this year it was SEVERELY exacerbated by total lack of help by the bigs.
At times, it seemed we were making every ACC PG we faced look like a NBA prospect. That Clemson guard comes to mind.

It almost seems like K has been so used to having lockdown guard defenders who were not that tall and continued with the same system once Nolan graduated. But the smaller guards we were trying to put in the lockdown-Nolan role post-2011 didn't have the physical/mental capabilities to do so. In fact the 2012-2014 defenses are Duke's #2, #4, and #1 worst ratings since KenPom started at #81, #31, #116.

It's really too bad about Quinn's knee problems, perhaps he's never fully recovered and lost a bit of a step.

[wk2109]

Well, I did not say the 2013 defense was getting destroyed, I only said their #31 defense is not great by Duke standards.

And my point was that Curry-Cook-Sheed, which is not too different from Tyus-Cook-Sheed, played the bulk of the perimeter minutes for that #31-ranked defense (which, again, would not have been ranked #31 had Ryan not gotten hurt) and did not get "destroyed," which is what you predict would happen with a Tyus-Cook-Sheed backcourt.


I DID say the small lineup of Tyus-Quinn-Sheed would get destroyed on defense given what we know now about Quinn/Tyus' defensive capabilities. Quinn gets burned by a lot of ACC starting point guards, and Tyus' reportedly had issues with defense at the all-star training camps. Sure, I definitely hope Tyus and Quinn make huge strides on defense this summer, but we can't assume the best-case scenario.

I think it's far too early to declare that we know anything conclusive about Tyus's defensive capabilities, especially if that opinion is based on all-star game training camps. And even if Tyus is not a defensive ace, neither was Seth, and like I've said repeatedly, the Curry-Cook-Sheed perimeter did not get destroyed. I'm hoping for the best, but I'm not necessarily expecting it. I'm just basing my opinion on what we've already seen. Switching Seth for Tyus does not seem like a huge difference maker.


From these data points, perhaps one truth is that the backcourt either needs to be big/long or they need to be fast.
2004 - sure we had a 3-guard lineup, but Duhon/Dockery/Ewing were MORE than capable of staying in front of their man. Lateral quickness out the a--
2010 - amazing D all around, one would think Scheyer's lack of exceptional lateral quickness would be exploited, but his decent size and great positioning more than made up for it. Nolan wasn't big, but he was agile enough to lock down quick guards. One can imagine Sheed can take on that lockdown role, but Jon and Kyle are not walking through that door. Instead we have Quinn and Tyus. Great players sure, but defensively nowhere near Jon and Kyle who were so smart and had great size for their position.
2012-2014: Quinn and Tyler are both small and not exceptionally blessed with lateral quickness. Would place Seth in this category too, but he was severely hampered by injury in 2013.

If you're not tall/long, you have to be laterally quick. Like Duhon, Dockery, Nolan, DeMarcus
If you're not fast, it helps to be tall/long. Like Scheyer, UCLA's Kyle Anderson. Or exceptionally crafty like Kendall Marshall, Scheyer, and Anderson.

The defensive worst-case is to be slow and small (relative to top D-1 backcourts) like Quinn and Tyler, and this year it was SEVERELY exacerbated by total lack of help by the bigs.
At times, it seemed we were making every ACC PG we faced look like a NBA prospect. That Clemson guard comes to mind.

It almost seems like K has been so used to having lockdown guard defenders who were not that tall and continued with the same system once Nolan graduated. But the smaller guards we were trying to put in the lockdown-Nolan role post-2011 didn't have the physical/mental capabilities to do so. In fact the 2012-2014 defenses are Duke's #2, #4, and #1 worst ratings since KenPom started at #81, #31, #116.

I agree with most of this and I have a few thoughts:

1. Rodney Hood was long for a wing -- he might not have a great wingspan (I'm not sure what it is), but he's still relatively long for a college wing. You would figure that even with a a slow/small guard like Quinn/Tyler, the combination of Sheed (laterally quick) and Hood (a long wing) would still be pretty good, but it wasn't.
2. Many people have mentioned the packed-in defense that the 2010 team played. It helped that Jon and Kyle were relatively long and could contest three-point shooters better than smaller guards could, and a smaller perimeter probably wouldn't be able to contest the three as effectively. So the length of Kyle and Jon definitely played a role in the 2010 defense's success, and a small perimeter might not be able to replicate this success. However, I still feel that the 2010 strategy would work better than the 2014 ball-pressure strategy because 1) the rule changes prevent guards with average lateral quickness from pressuring the ball without fouling and 2) besides maybe Sheed, Duke doesn't have guard with above-average lateral quickness. Sure the packed in defense will make it tougher to contest threes, but I think the biggest problem of the 2014 defense was that opposing guards would blow by Duke's perimeter guys and carve up the rest of the defense.


It's really too bad about Quinn's knee problems, perhaps he's never fully recovered and lost a bit of a step.

I also agree with this. I also think Quinn took a tailspin after suffering his ankle injury/injuries last season. I don't know to what extent he has recovered or will recover from his knee issues, but I expect that he will play better with healthy ankles next season than he did in the second half of last season.

[Kedsy]

And my point was that Curry-Cook-Sheed, which is not too different from Tyus-Cook-Sheed, played the bulk of the perimeter minutes for that #31-ranked defense (which, again, would not have been ranked #31 had Ryan not gotten hurt) and did not get "destroyed," which is what you predict would happen with a Tyus-Cook-Sheed backcourt.

For what it's worth, the day before Ryan got hurt in 2013, Duke's defense was ranked 7th by Pomeroy. We actually got as high as 4th, four days after Ryan was hurt, but then we faded during the ACC season without our most important defensive player. And as you point out, this was with an undersized SF, a SG with an injured leg, and a laterally-challenged PG.

I agree with you that it's too simplistic to pinpoint our recent defensive struggles on having a small (or even not particularly quick) perimeter.

[Saratoga2]

The national championship winner featured two very small but quick guards and packed their defense in with good rim protectors. Boatright is only about 5'10" but he is exceptionally quick. Both their guards could challenge the three and also make it difficult to penetrate so despite their size, they beat a team with two 6'6" guards. They played their defense based on their personnel and it worked for them. Kevin Ollie should be given a lot of credit for how they played.

Duke has small PG's if they both play together, plus our defense gets spread and we don't pack in so it makes it very difficult for our guards to prevent penetration. I think Rasheed is the quickest with Quinn average and it is hard to access Tyus at this point. Matt Jones is bigger and longer but not exceptionally quick. Grayson is neither particularly big or quick but is a very good athlete. In my opinion, it is up to the coaching staff to look at making adjustments to our MTM defensive style to best fit our personnel. What we did last year certainly didn't work.

[COYS]

For what it's worth, the day before Ryan got hurt in 2013, Duke's defense was ranked 7th by Pomeroy. We actually got as high as 4th, four days after Ryan was hurt, but then we faded during the ACC season without our most important defensive player. And as you point out, this was with an undersized SF, a SG with an injured leg, and a laterally-challenged PG.

I agree with you that it's too simplistic to pinpoint our recent defensive struggles on having a small (or even not particularly quick) perimeter.

Thanks for pointing this out. I was going to mention this as well, but I could remember the exact number. I thought it was a top 10 defense. Truth be told, Duke was a very serious title contender before Ryan went down. I've said this in another thread, but 2013 was a much better year than I think people realize, games against Maryland notwithstanding. Our defense was elite when Ryan was healthy. It is certainly fair to speculate as to whether or not the matchup with Louisville would have gone differently with a fully healthy and in-sync Ryan plus a fully healthy Seth. Who knows if we would have won, considering how well Louisville played in the second half. But I bet it would have been much closer with a higher probability of us winning just like we did when we played them in November 2012.

Anyway, all this is to reiterate the point that it paints and incomplete picture to say that Duke's defense has been beneath Duke standards for three years, now. No doubt 2012 and especially 2014 were pretty poor. However, 2013 was actually a very good year defensively when the team was healthy and still a pretty decent year despite Ryan's injury. So much of Duke's defensive success is predicated on the ability of big men to hedge. The pressure our guards put on opposing guards is a gamble, as it is much easier to get by a defender with a screen if the defender is in your face all the time. However, if the big guys hedge and recover effectively, then it can cut off driving lanes and passing lanes for the ball handler. Quite honestly, I think the single biggest deficiency for the 2014 team was a lack of consistent hedging. Jabari was particularly bad at it and opposing teams used Jabari's man in ball screens over and over. However, Marshall and Amile showed promise in this area. If they continue to improve, if the addition of Jahlil improves our overall post defense, and if the coaching staff works in some new wrinkles to improve the defensive scheme, I think Duke's defense will return to where it belongs, whether or not we play three guards or two on the perimeter.

[wk2109]

Thanks for pointing this out. I was going to mention this as well, but I could remember the exact number. I thought it was a top 10 defense. Truth be told, Duke was a very serious title contender before Ryan went down. I've said this in another thread, but 2013 was a much better year than I think people realize, games against Maryland notwithstanding. Our defense was elite when Ryan was healthy. It is certainly fair to speculate as to whether or not the matchup with Louisville would have gone differently with a fully healthy and in-sync Ryan plus a fully healthy Seth. Who knows if we would have won, considering how well Louisville played in the second half. But I bet it would have been much closer with a higher probability of us winning just like we did when we played them in November 2012.

I agree completely. Before Ryan got hurt, Duke was 14-0 (15-0 if you count the game in which he got hurt) after one of the toughest non-conference schedules in history (at least on paper) and ranked #1 in the country. I think 2013 is almost on par with 2011 as far as my 'what could have been' fantasies go.

I would surmise that Duke would have been a #1 seed -- perhaps even the overall #1 -- had Ryan stayed healthy. Thus the Louisville game wouldn't have happened until the Final Four or national championship game.