The Jabari and Rodney prediction poll

[JasonEvans]

So, someone asked me for my prediction, but my opinion is no more valid than any other so I figured I would let all of us register an opinion.

Folks, this is not a "here is what I hope will happen," poll. This is a "here is what I think will happen." Don't make an emotional pick, make one that is based on logic. Pretend like you have money riding on this.

Vote now... the poll will close on Tuesday.

-Jason "I know what I want to vote for..." Evans

[Jarhead]

So, someone asked me for my prediction, but my opinion is no more valid than any other so I figured I would let all of us register an opinion.

Folks, this is not a "here is what I hope will happen," poll. This is a "here is what I think will happen." Don't make an emotional pick, make one that is based on logic. Pretend like you have money riding on this.

Vote now... the poll will close on Tuesday.

-Jason "I know what I want to vote for..." Evans

Can't vote yet. I have no idea. Give me a few days - maybe on Thurday.

[toughbuff1]

I'm going with the reverse jinx.

[Henderson]

No way I'm touching this.

[gurufrisbee]

Setting the bar low - I think they both are gone.

[CatDevil]

My heart wanted to choose the first option, but I didn't vote with my heart:( Sure hope I am wrong

[brevity]

So, someone asked me for my prediction, but my opinion is no more valid than any other so I figured I would let all of us register an opinion.

Folks, this is not a "here is what I hope will happen," poll. This is a "here is what I think will happen." Don't make an emotional pick, make one that is based on logic. Pretend like you have money riding on this.

Vote now... the poll will close on Tuesday.

-Jason "I know what I want to vote for..." Evans

Given all that prologue, why haven't you yourself voted? It's not like another 36 hours of pointless speculation will help you form a gut opinion.

I voted that they'll both declare. I can live with it if I'm right. I can live with it if I'm wrong.

[JasonEvans]

Given all that prologue, why haven't you yourself voted? It's not like another 36 hours of pointless speculation will help you form a gut opinion.

I voted that they'll both declare. I can live with it if I'm right. I can live with it if I'm wrong.

I have spent 2 hours staring at this, trying to talk myself into voting that Jabari would come back (Hood has been in college for three years, he's certain to leave)...

... In the end, I could not do it. Sigh.

--Jason "please be wrong, Jason!!!" Evans

[FireOgilvie]

I'll be completely shocked (and elated) if Jabari comes back. But, the way he was talking about the NCAA and "going hungry" or whatever and his general demeanor during his interview on ESPN (SportsNation) really made me believe that he has already made up his mind to go pro. I'm sure he'll talk to Coach K, who will tell him to go as well. There's zero chance that Coach K tells him that he's not ready to go. It will all be up to whether Jabari wants to come back or not. I'm sure he really does love Duke, but I will still be completely shocked if he returns.

Also, I've been assuming Rodney was planning on going pro since 2012 when his old teammate Arnett Moultrie said as much to ESPN:

"1. Former Mississippi State center Arnett Moultrie said his one-time teammate Rodney Hood will be a one-and-done player when he plays in 2013-14. Hood, who is leaving the Bulldogs after his freshman season, is likely deciding among Ohio State, Memphis and Duke. (He also visited Baylor.) Hood would have to sit out one season before playing for one of those teams. “His skill level is really nice,’’ said Moultrie. “He’s athletic and gets inside when he needs to. He’ll be one-and-done wherever he goes.’’ Moultrie said he talks to Hood multiple times a week and expected him to make up his mind shortly."

http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/post/_/id/60002/3-point-shot-timing-is-right-for-purdue

[MCFinARL]

I'll be completely shocked (and elated) if Jabari comes back. But, the way he was talking about the NCAA and "going hungry" or whatever and his general demeanor during his interview on ESPN (SportsNation) really made me believe that he has already made up his mind to go pro. I'm sure he'll talk to Coach K, who will tell him to go as well. There's zero chance that Coach K tells him that he's not ready to go. It will all be up to whether Jabari wants to come back or not. I'm sure he really does love Duke, but I will still be completely shocked if he returns.

Also, I've been assuming Rodney was planning on going pro since 2012 when his old teammate Arnett Moultrie said as much to ESPN:

"1. Former Mississippi State center Arnett Moultrie said his one-time teammate Rodney Hood will be a one-and-done player when he plays in 2013-14. Hood, who is leaving the Bulldogs after his freshman season, is likely deciding among Ohio State, Memphis and Duke. (He also visited Baylor.) Hood would have to sit out one season before playing for one of those teams. “His skill level is really nice,’’ said Moultrie. “He’s athletic and gets inside when he needs to. He’ll be one-and-done wherever he goes.’’ Moultrie said he talks to Hood multiple times a week and expected him to make up his mind shortly."

http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/post/_/id/60002/3-point-shot-timing-is-right-for-purdue

Jabari appears to be a very responsible young man, and his remarks suggest that he is very grateful for what he has gotten at Duke. I can imagine that he may want to ask Coach K's blessing for leaving, in the sense that Coach K will surely tell him that he does not owe it to Duke to stay another year because they did not have a good tournament run as well as in the sense that Coach K will tell him he is ready (which I imagine he already knows). I'd love to think it will be otherwise, but I don't.

[BlueDevilBrowns]

Jabari appears to be a very responsible young man, and his remarks suggest that he is very grateful for what he has gotten at Duke. I can imagine that he may want to ask Coach K's blessing for leaving, in the sense that Coach K will surely tell him that he does not owe it to Duke to stay another year because they did not have a good tournament run as well as in the sense that Coach K will tell him he is ready (which I imagine he already knows). I'd love to think it will be otherwise, but I don't.

I agree with all of this.

If Jabari were going to stay, I think it would have been announced already by now. I think he's showing respect to Coach K and the staff by discussing with them his feelings and thoughts first before making a public announcment.

I imagine Rodney is doing the same with likely the same end result.

Both of them were great representatives of Duke Basketball last year and, if they do choose to leave for the NBA, I wish them both the very best as they continue to represent what being a "Blue Devil" is all about.

[77devil]

Like the majority I voted that both will leave. When I saw later that Jim Sumner voted Jabari will stay, I became hopeful that he has inside information. :)

[johnb]

While it's probably unlikely, I voted Rodney to stay since he'd be the featured wing performer on a team with a great PG and a great center. This would elevate him above his current station (second best 6'8 forward on the team and perhaps drafted at the end of the 1st round of a very strong draft) to being much more of a lock for the 2015 lottery. OTOH, end of the first round might be the best place to go since he'd presumably get to play for a winning and well-run franchise. Hmmm. Maybe I'd change my vote...

[Troublemaker]

If Jabari were going to stay, I think it would have been announced already by now. I think he's showing respect to Coach K and the staff by discussing with them his feelings and thoughts first before making a public announcment.

You may be right, but personally I'm not going to read too much into the timing of things.

I think he would want to have the "big talk" with Coach K before announcing, regardless of whether he's leaning stay or leaning go. I'd like to think these players view Coach K as a Yoda figure. Every time they drop by his office, he lays nuggets of wisdom on them that change their perspective on things. And in the case of this meeting, Coach K's also going to have lots of information from his NBA contacts to provide to Jabari. Yeah, the players just never want to miss out on the "big talks" with Coach K about important matters like this decision.

Secondly, human beings and deadlines... You give someone til April 27th to do something, if he gets it done by mid-April, that's actually pretty good. Especially for a 19-yr-old.

Thirdly, besides wanting to have the "big talk", there are other reasons why a player might delay his announcement. If he's leaning go, he would want to show the program respect that it was a tough decision as you and others have mentioned. If he's leaning stay, he would want to show his friends and community back home that he seriously considered taking the cash. Hey, you grow up in that community and you have a chance to make immediate millions, some of his friends are not going to understand why Jabari would pass up that opportunity. One day soon, Jabari will make decisions without caring about what his friends think. Maybe he's already there, actually. But if he's not, he's only 19. He'll get there.

Hopefully this post made sense. I had a couple cocktails before noon. Feeling great right now!

[NYBri]

I actually think that if left to Jabari's instinct, he stays, but I think K is going to push him to go.

[Henderson]

I actually think that if left to Jabari's instinct, he stays, but I think K is going to push him to go.

Why would you think that? All the other players who have ever talked about that discussion with K says he doesn't push a position; he discusses pro's and con's. At the most, in an extreme case, he might point out that the pro's outweigh the con's in his view. If a player is ready and likely to be drafted high, he's honest about that. I don't think that's pushing. Or maybe you meant something a little less than "push".

[Zeke]

They're both gone. Get over it. Another of our series of one and done players. I know Parker really isn't, but for Duke he was.

[Kedsy]

I know Parker really isn't, but for Duke he was.

You mean Rodney?

[Udaman]

I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but this poll might as well have been (in the same order)

1) The sun will rise 2 hours later than it should tomorrow.

2) The sun will rise 2 hours earlier than it should tomorrow.

3) The sun won't rise at all tomorrow.

4) The sun will rise exactly when it's supposed to tomorrow.


Jabari and Hood are gone. Period. End of discussion. You can hope and wish and want and dream all that you want....but that is all you will be doing.

As an aside, I was watching the Documentary on the 91 and 92 Duke Blue Devils, and it made me realize how different (in every way possible) college basketball is today compared to back then. If we lived in that world back then, Laettner would have left after his Sophomore Year, Hurley after his Sophomore or Junior year, and Hill after his freshman or sophomore year. Instead we got all three for four full years.

[NYBri]

Or maybe you meant something a little less than "push".

Yes. I meant that he might be forthright about the advantages, which are many, and not speak from the heart that he would want him to return. Facts point to the young man moving on, the heart says stay and grow.

[flyingdutchdevil]

As an aside, I was watching the Documentary on the 91 and 92 Duke Blue Devils, and it made me realize how different (in every way possible) college basketball is today compared to back then. If we lived in that world back then, Laettner would have left after his Sophomore Year, Hurley after his Sophomore or Junior year, and Hill after his freshman or sophomore year. Instead we got all three for four full years.

This. Different ball game, different standards. Players like Hill don't stay 4 years. Hell, any team would be lucky to have that for 2 years in the modern game.

I think that's why McBuckets was such an exciting player his year. If he had played in the 1990s, I don't think we'd be singing his praises as much as we are now as he'd be competing with Kyrie Irving, Harrison Barnes, Austin Rivers, etc. etc for media time (and same goes for the "Freshman Focus").

[OZZIE4DUKE]

I'd rather be optoemistic and wrong than pessimistic and right. They are both staying! Doh.

[MCFinARL]

I'd rather be optoemistic and wrong than pessimistic and right. They are both staying! Doh.

Ozzie, it would be so deeply disappointing if you said anything else. We need our paragon of optimism!

And, yes, I now realize I put paragon instead of paradigm--but it feels right, so I am leaving it.

[Jarhead]

Yes. I meant that he might be forthright about the advantages, which are many, and not speak from the heart that he would want him to return. Facts point to the young man moving on, the heart says stay and grow.

What facts are those? The facts that I have come across indicate nothing. Jabari has simply not yet made up his mind.

[richardjackson199]

Airowe, what's your vote in the DBR crystal ball?

(Hey it worked when I asked for Jason Evans prediction and also got one from Jim Sumner!) :)

[SupaDave]

They're both gone. Get over it. Another of our series of one and done players. I know Parker really isn't, but for Duke he was.

Hood has been in college 3 years - 2 of them at Duke.


This. Different ball game, different standards. Players like Hill don't stay 4 years. Hell, any team would be lucky to have that for 2 years in the modern game.

Depends on how you look at it - some of the NBA's best players are 4 year players.


I actually think that if left to Jabari's instinct, he stays, but I think K is going to push him to go.


Why would you think that? All the other players who have ever talked about that discussion with K says he doesn't push a position; he discusses pro's and con's. At the most, in an extreme case, he might point out that the pro's outweigh the con's in his view. If a player is ready and likely to be drafted high, he's honest about that. I don't think that's pushing. Or maybe you meant something a little less than "push".

Coach K is likely to sit Jabari down and the convo will go something like this:

Jabari: What's up Coach?
K: You know why you are here today - it's your end of the year evaluation.
Jabari: So what do you think?
K: Jabari, you're one of the most gifted players I've ever coached. You're a top 5 pick in the draft and there's no way I can tell you to stay in school. However, you did not accomplish everything that you came to Duke to do. I'm sure you understand that you have things to work on in your game and the NBA isn't the best place to learn things on the fly. We have a tape of all the points you left on the floor this year along with all the times you didn't make it down the court on a break and didn't defend and all the times you got beat on a backdoor cut. Next year we plan to prepare you for the NBA in a NBA role just like we did JJ, Dunleavy, Elton Brand, Battier and Grant. No matter your decision - you are family and always will be a part of the Duke basketball program.
Jabari: Thank you coach. Do you think I could get the keys to the gym this year?
K: Only if you promise not to throw any wild parties...

Supa "guess what I voted for" Dave

[wsb3]

Pretty sure both are gone. This has probably been covered elsewhere but what has confused me is if it was a done deal that Hood was here for one year, why so long to declare?

[richardjackson199]

Pretty sure both are gone. This has probably been covered elsewhere but what has confused me is if it was a done deal that Hood was here for one year, why so long to declare?

Maybe it's not a done deal that Hood is gone. Maybe he is wisely watching what others will do and what it potentially does to his draft stock this year. Maybe after seeing his draft stock projected anywhere from late lottery to late first round he is wisely thinking about it. Maybe if he sees Jabari return and then considers that next year he could also star on an incredibly good team, finish his college career on a high note, and possibly be a top 5 pick that option would be worth thinking about. Maybe he also likes the idea of helping provide some upper-class leadership to next year's class of studs. Maybe he knows that plenty of NBA dollars will be coming soon even if he waits another year. Maybe he agrees with Coach K that he also wishes he could play for him for more than 1 year. I'm honestly not being sarcastic.

You pose a good point which I also considered, and this is precisely why I voted both would stay. I don't know what will happen, but I'm hopeful that on Wed. Jabari will announce his return. Then I believe Rodney will also have some fun options to consider. I'm glad Rodney is being smart and carefully weighing his options. He has until April 27, so there is no rush to make a very important decision while more data to consider is still coming in.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Depends on how you look at it - some of the NBA's best players are 4 year players.

I can't name one other than Timmy D, and he's 37 (a 1990s product, where 4 years in the college was the norm). Who else?

[MCFinARL]

Maybe it's not a done deal that Hood is gone. Maybe he is wisely watching what others will do and what it potentially does to his draft stock this year. Maybe after seeing his draft stock projected anywhere from late lottery to late first round he is wisely thinking about it. Maybe if he sees Jabari return and then considers that next year he could also star on an incredibly good team, finish his college career on a high note, and possibly be a top 5 pick that option would be worth thinking about. Maybe he also likes the idea of helping provide some upper-class leadership to next year's class of studs. Maybe he knows that plenty of NBA dollars will be coming soon even if he waits another year. Maybe he agrees with Coach K that he also wishes he could play for him for more than 1 year. I'm honestly not being sarcastic.

You pose a good point which I also considered, and this is precisely why I voted both would stay. I don't know what will happen, but I'm hopeful that on Wed. Jabari will announce his return. Then I believe Rodney will also have some fun options to consider. I'm glad Rodney is being smart and carefully weighing his options. He has until April 27, so there is no rush to make a very important decision while more data to consider is still coming in.

I love your optimism here, which I don't really share, but for me your last sentence is the key. A lot of people seem to think that someone who plans to come out would necessarily announce right away--but why? What is the advantage in announcing quickly? This isn't like a college choice where a lot of teams are awaiting the decision and may continue to pester the player until he decides, so there may be an incentive to get it over with. I'm sure the Duke staff has a good enough idea of where Rodney stands that they can make plans accordingly. In the meantime, even if Rodney is 99% sure he is entering the draft, why not wait to see whether things happen (in terms of other players going out, etc.) that might change his thinking?

[SupaDave]

I can't name one other than Timmy D, and he's 37 (a 1990s product, where 4 years in the college was the norm). Who else?

Roy Hibbert, Kenneth Faried, Damian Lillard, David Lee, Tayshaun Prince, Danny Granger, Shane Battier, David West, Steve Nash, JJ Redick, Chandler Parsons, George Hill, Jeremy Lin, Nick Collison, Wesley Matthews, Draymond Green and there's quite a few more less heralded players...

[fgb]

of the two, even though jabari clearly appears to be the greater talent, i actually think rodney would be a better fit with next year's roster.

[JasonEvans]

Airowe, what's your vote in the DBR crystal ball?

(Hey it worked when I asked for Jason Evans prediction and also got one from Jim Sumner!) :)

Adam voted they will both go to the NBA. Sorry...

[CDu]

of the two, even though jabari clearly appears to be the greater talent, i actually think rodney would be a better fit with next year's roster.

I don't know. I think either would be a great fit. Parker would fill more of a need in that he could play the "stretch 4" spot alongside Okafor and Plumlee. Hood would be a nice scoring/shooting threat from the 3 spot.

[richardjackson199]

Adam voted they will both go to the NBA. Sorry...

I know! Be careful what you ask for. I was pretty hopeful after hearing we would likely find out the destination Wed. on banquet day. Seeing Adam's vote, and especially seeing the vote cast today in that direction is a bummer.

I'll still wait to hear the news from both players, and of course support them both 100% and be happy for them either way. Their futures will be quite bright either way. But my expectations for seeing Rodney or Jabari in Durham next year are certainly quite lowered now.

(Which means of course that a banquet announcement that they both or Jabari stays would rocket me up even higher. :D)
(Of course I want them to each do what is best and most important to them).

Waiting to hear the news...

[CDu]

I know! Be careful what you ask for. I was pretty hopeful after hearing we would likely find out the destination Wed. on banquet day. Seeing Adam's vote, and especially seeing the vote cast today in that direction is a bummer.

I'll still wait to hear the news from both players, and of course support them both 100% and be happy for them either way. Their futures will be quite bright either way. But my expectations for seeing Rodney or Jabari in Durham next year are certainly quite lowered now.

(Which means of course that a banquet announcement that they both or Jabari stays would rocket me up even higher. :D)
(Of course I want them to each do what is best and most important to them).

Waiting to hear the news...

The odds have been against either player returning since before the season began. It is fairly rare for a freshman predicted to be a top-3 pick to return for his sophomore year. It is rare for a third-year player projected to be a first round pick to return as well.

Expect them to go pro. Be pleasantly surprised on the off-chance that they return. Wish them well if they don't surprise and do go pro.

[richardjackson199]

The odds have been against either player returning since before the season began. It is fairly rare for a freshman predicted to be a top-3 pick to return for his sophomore year. It is rare for a third-year player projected to be a first round pick to return as well.

Expect them to go pro. Be pleasantly surprised on the off-chance that they return. Wish them well if they don't surprise and do go pro.

Agreed.

Most probably saw this posted in the Rodney Hood draft vigil, but for anyone who missed it Adam Zagoria just reported that per a source Rodney Hood is certainly going pro. As always, I'll wait for Rodney, but if that is true I wish Rodney all the best. What a great Duke player in every sense. He'll do very well.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Roy Hibbert, Kenneth Faried, Damian Lillard, David Lee, Tayshaun Prince, Danny Granger, Shane Battier, David West, Steve Nash, JJ Redick, Chandler Parsons, George Hill, Jeremy Lin, Nick Collison, Wesley Matthews, Draymond Green and there's quite a few more less heralded players...

Since when did all these players not named Roy Hibbert and Damina Lillard ever be considered "some of the NBA's best players"? Good players, yes. Excellent role players, yes. But "NBA best" sounds like "star", and only Hibbert and Lillard really fit that bill (Duncan too, of course).

[SoCalDukeFan]

I voted that they both go to the NBA.

Evidently they are both good students and still attending classes and working on schoolwork. I think that shows they do want to eventually get a degree and am proud of them. I can fault them for leaving and feel good that they really are college students.

Obviously would prefer that my vote was completely off based and they both stay and complete their degree.

One and dones (or transfers and then one and done) do not bother me as I understand the allure of the NBA and the money. What does bother me is those that only come to college because they think have to and then drop out of school as soon as possible.

SoCal

[CDu]

Roy Hibbert, Kenneth Faried, Damian Lillard, David Lee, Tayshaun Prince, Danny Granger, Shane Battier, David West, Steve Nash, JJ Redick, Chandler Parsons, George Hill, Jeremy Lin, Nick Collison, Wesley Matthews, Draymond Green and there's quite a few more less heralded players...

Collison, Battier, and Green aren't even starters. Matthews, Hill, and Lin are fringy starters/role players. Prince, Parsons, and Hibbert are/were very solid but not great starters (Hibbert is highly overrated). Can one really call any of these guys among the best players in the NBA?

Only Lillard, Lee, Granger (pre-injury - now he's a backup), and Steve Nash could really be considered among the best in my opinion. And Nash, like Duncan, falls in the era prior to the one-and-done (mid-90s) explosion.

If you go through the top 50 players in the NBA right now, I'd guess that less than 20% were 4-year college guys. Maybe even less than 10%. For reference, only 4 of the top 50 in the Hollinger ratings (and I realize that Hollinger is not the be-all; just needed a reference point) were 4-year college guys. None of them were in the top-20.

I think it is really hard to argue that many of the best players in the NBA are 4-year college guys. You can certainly say that being a 4-year guy doesn't prevent you from being one of the best NBA players. But it hasn't really been the path that the vast majority of the best NBA players took to stardom.

[Kfanarmy]

Agreed.

Most probably saw this posted in the Rodney Hood draft vigil, but for anyone who missed it Adam Zagoria just reported that per a source Rodney Hood is certainly going pro. As always, I'll wait for Rodney, but if that is true I wish Rodney all the best. What a great Duke player in every sense. He'll do very well. I believe this was originally reported on April 1st; was it not?

[Mike Corey]

As ever, expect this duo to go pro, and hope to be surprised when they announce.

[richardjackson199]

I believe this was originally reported on April 1st; was it not?

Now it's being reported on April 15 by Adam Zagoria. Doesn't sound like a joke to me:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1997386-rodney-hood-reportedly-will-enter-2014-nba-draft

[richardjackson199]

As ever, expect this duo to go pro, and hope to be surprised when they announce.

Mike are you sayin' there's a chance? More like 1 in a million? It was fun to imagine what next year's team could have been like with Jabari and/or Rodney. But I've given up hoping on this one. Airowe predicting Jabari goes pro after Jabari met with Coach K, Adam Zagoria's report today, NBA GM's now leaking that Jabari is talking to agents and going pro; the writing is on the wall - they're gone. I was trying to be as optimistic as possible, but I've seen how this goes too many times once the news leaks out.

It's all good, Duke has an exciting class coming in and we'll be good next year. We'll be very young and inexperienced for the most part, but talented. I wish Jabari & Rodney the absolute best and will always cheer for them. I hope Jabari goes #1 and doesn't end up on a team like the Sixers, Bucks, or Magic. If it were me I'd come back and go for an incredible season with Duke vs. a grueling long NBA season on a crappy team. Of course I'd take the millions, and I'd know the millions would be there after 1 more year in college. I'd try to complete some more college goals after completing so many high school goals. But it's not me - I shoot worse than the Duke cross country kid who declared today (hilarious and cheered me up!). This is Jabari and Rodney's decision, and I can't fault them for choosing what was most important to them. I'll always remember how great they were at Duke for one season that ended too quickly. But now it's time to move on.

[SupaDave]

Now it's being reported on April 15 by Adam Zagoria. Doesn't sound like a joke to me:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1997386-rodney-hood-reportedly-will-enter-2014-nba-draft

http://collegebasketballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/03/22/mason-plumlee-to-forego-senior-year-enter-nba-draft/

[SupaDave]

Collison, Battier, and Green aren't even starters. Matthews, Hill, and Lin are fringy starters/role players. Prince, Parsons, and Hibbert are/were very solid but not great starters (Hibbert is highly overrated). Can one really call any of these guys among the best players in the NBA?

Only Lillard, Lee, Granger (pre-injury - now he's a backup), and Steve Nash could really be considered among the best in my opinion. And Nash, like Duncan, falls in the era prior to the one-and-done (mid-90s) explosion.

If you go through the top 50 players in the NBA right now, I'd guess that less than 20% were 4-year college guys. Maybe even less than 10%. For reference, only 4 of the top 50 in the Hollinger ratings (and I realize that Hollinger is not the be-all; just needed a reference point) were 4-year college guys. None of them were in the top-20.

I think it is really hard to argue that many of the best players in the NBA are 4-year college guys. You can certainly say that being a 4-year guy doesn't prevent you from being one of the best NBA players. But it hasn't really been the path that the vast majority of the best NBA players took to stardom.

You would have to name some pretty good folks to place people in front of these guys. You knew all of their names. Those guys are putting in work and were legit enough to research. Many have endorsements. ALL will get multiple contracts. Good enough for me.

And from Hibbert's freshmen year to now - he's hardly overrated. Gosh, I remember the kid could barely check in without getting a foul. He's come a long way.

[Troublemaker]

It's all good, Duke has an exciting class coming in and we'll be good next year. We'll be very young and inexperienced for the most part, but talented. I wish Jabari & Rodney the absolute best and will always cheer for them.

Indeed, brother. If Jabari and Rodney leave, Duke is still just the Harrison twins leaving Kentucky away from being preseason #1, as far as I can tell. Maybe Wisconsin, depending on how heavily the voters weigh experience as a factor. Whether Duke deserves that ranking is another matter and not one I'm too keen to argue about as of right now. But the point is, even if the media and general public are slightly overestimating Duke, we'd still be way up there as far as contenders are concerned. Even if Jabari and Rodney leave.

[CDu]

You would have to name some pretty good folks to place people in front of these guys. You knew all of their names. Those guys are putting in work and were legit enough to research. Many have endorsements. ALL will get multiple contracts. Good enough for me.

And from Hibbert's freshmen year to now - he's hardly overrated. Gosh, I remember the kid could barely check in without getting a foul. He's come a long way.

I guess it depends on your definition of "many" and "among the best." There are only like ~450 players in the NBA. So the top 50 represent roughly the top 10 percent of the league. Only 4 or 5 4-year guys make the top-50. So if you define "many" as 4 or 5 and "among the best" to include anyone in the top 10-15% of the league, then sure. Conversely, the top-20 is litered with 1- and 2- year guys (and 0-year guys) but no 4-year guys.

I would wholeheartedly agree that there are many decent NBA guys that are 4-year guys (and even a few really good ones). I would not agree that 4-year guys represent many of the best players in the league.

[SupaDave]

I guess it depends on your definition of "many" and "among the best." There are only like ~450 players in the NBA. So the top 50 represent roughly the top 10 percent of the league. Only 4 or 5 4-year guys make the top-50. So if you define "many" as 4 or 5 and "among the best" to include anyone in the top 10-15% of the league, then sure. Conversely, the top-20 is litered with 1- and 2- year guys (and 0-year guys) but no 4-year guys.

I would wholeheartedly agree that there are many decent NBA guys that are 4-year guys (and even a few really good ones). I would not agree that 4-year guys represent many of the best players in the league.

I never used "many" so that's not my issue.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Now it's being reported on April 15 by Adam Zagoria. Doesn't sound like a joke to me:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1997386-rodney-hood-reportedly-will-enter-2014-nba-draft

As I pointed out in the other thread, Zagoria said the same thing about both Hood and Harrell back in late March. And as SupaDave so perfectly linked, these guys are not always right.

http://fansided.com/2014/03/25/nba-draft-2014-rodney-hood-montrezl-harrell-declare/#!EbNL4

[richardjackson199]

As I pointed out in the other thread, Zagoria said the same thing about both Hood and Harrell back in late March. And as SupaDave so perfectly linked, these guys are not always right.

http://fansided.com/2014/03/25/nba-draft-2014-rodney-hood-montrezl-harrell-declare/#!EbNL4

I understand that guys like Zagoria are occasionally wrong. But I wasn't responding to one report from one blogger guru. Many different pieces of information all came today from different sources that Jabari and Rodney are going pro. When you put them all together, that much smoke means there's a fire.

Adam Rowe and Zagoria have been wrong before, but they both get pretty money inside information most of the time. They both have indicated on separate occasions, and both again today, that Hood is going pro. Several other media outlets have indicated that Hood is gone, although there hasn't been an announcement. I haven't seen one thing to suggest that Hood is considering staying (other than him not yet announcing his decision). There have been several mostly-reliable indicators that Hood is gone, including from Coach K himself.

For Jabari - today after discussing it with both his parents and Coach K - Adam Rowe predicts he goes pro; Mark Heisler (Veteran NBA writer, doing Sunday OC Register column, blogging for Forbes.... Writers wing, Hoop Hall of Fame) tweets that NBA folks (who previously feared Jabari might be staying) now think he is going pro and furthermore that Jabari is already talking to players' agents to pick one. Then Olympic Fan, who also gets pretty good inside info into the program, reports that the announcement, which we previously were told would come on banquet day, will actually be delivered on Thursday or "Good" Friday. It makes sense not to deliver unhappy-for-team-Duke news on banquet day.

Put all that together, and the writing is on the wall. I'd love to be wrong obviously, but even hoping for a surprise announcement at this point is futile. Imagining Jabari and/or Rodney playing with next year's squad was a pipe dream. It was a fun one while it lasted before reality hit today. The decisions have been made, and too much information has leaked out from several very good (not perfect) sources.

[_Gary]

Put all that together, and the writing is on the wall. I'd love to be wrong obviously, but even hoping for a surprise announcement at this point is futile. Imagining Jabari and/or Rodney playing with next year's squad was a pipe dream. It was a fun one while it lasted before reality hit today. The decisions have been made, and too much information has leaked out from several very good (not perfect) sources.

Darn it. I'm forced to agree that the writing is on the wall. Up till the news earlier today that Jabari wouldn't announce tomorrow, I had really convinced myself he was coming back. Now I'm basically positive he won't. Can I change my vote? :(

[johnb]

It's totally reasonable that both of them go pro. It seems less terrific if they have absolutely decided but are hanging on to their decision for some reason. Maybe Jabari wants to emphasize his interest in school, and Rodney is trying to goose himself into the lottery, but I'd really rather not waste my time checking in to see on their draft status. So they should announce already, just to improve my daily efficiency.

Similarly, if Myles knows his final 2 or 3, announce them.

Basically, I'd like to start focusing on the 2014-15 team, which is looking to be a really great team without any of the unlikelies.

[KandG]

Roy Hibbert, Kenneth Faried, Damian Lillard, David Lee, Tayshaun Prince, Danny Granger, Shane Battier, David West, Steve Nash, JJ Redick, Chandler Parsons, George Hill, Jeremy Lin, Nick Collison, Wesley Matthews, Draymond Green and there's quite a few more less heralded players...

As someone who watches more NBA than college basketball, I love this list of players -- with the exception of 2 or 3 of them, though, they're mostly third bananas, role players, glue guys. Great high character players to have on an NBA team, and quite a few of them are crucial to their team's success. But Nash and Lillard (and maybe Hibbert) aside, not among the NBA's elite or best.

Also, let's remember why this list was trotted out. Someone pointed out that a player the quality of Grant Hill wouldn't stay more than 2 years, if that, in college today, given the changed circumstances. The response was that "some of the NBA's best players are 4 year players", and then this list came out. Take a look at where these players were drafted:


Shane Battier 6th
Damian Lillard 6th
JJ Redick 11th
Nick Collison 12th
Steve Nash 15th
Roy Hibbert 17th
Danny Granger 17th
David West 18th
Kenneth Faried 22nd
Tayshaun Prince 23rd
George Hill 26th
David Lee 30th
Draymond Green 36th
Chandler Parsons 38th
Jeremy Lin undrafted
Wes Matthews undrafted

Three quarters of these players were drafted mid first round or lower, and two of them were undrafted. Battier we know about in terms of the jump in his stock after winning a championship, though Lillard seems to be the most clear cut "success story" in terms of benefits from staying longer and being drafted high -- but he had to redshirt his junior year and was still a mystery after his sophomore year because he played in the Big Sky conference.

The point is that while this may be a very good group of high character, quality pros who benefited from and enjoyed their college experience, a considerable majority were not projected as lottery picks, let alone being top three. Several of them were surprises or major finds with many question marks. (even Lillard sort of qualifies here, as his draft position was the subject of major discussion prior to the draft)

Hood and Parker, on the other hand, are known quantities with very positive buzz, and staying longer in today's climate when you already enjoy very high visibility can bring about negatives as well as positives with the increased scrutiny (and the caveat, in Hood's case, that the NBA does consider age and upside). If one or both of them wanted to stay at Duke another year, more power to them, but the above list of players isn't really a model for taking that alternative path.

[SupaDave]

As someone who watches more NBA than college basketball, I love this list of players -- with the exception of 2 or 3 of them, though, they're mostly third bananas, role players, glue guys. Great high character players to have on an NBA team, and quite a few of them are crucial to their team's success. But Nash and Lillard (and maybe Hibbert) aside, not among the NBA's elite or best.

Also, let's remember why this list was trotted out. Someone pointed out that a player the quality of Grant Hill wouldn't stay more than 2 years, if that, in college today, given the changed circumstances. The response was that "some of the NBA's best players are 4 year players", and then this list came out. Take a look at where these players were drafted:


Shane Battier 6th
Damian Lillard 6th
JJ Redick 11th
Nick Collison 12th
Steve Nash 15th
Roy Hibbert 17th
Danny Granger 17th
David West 18th
Kenneth Faried 22nd
Tayshaun Prince 23rd
George Hill 26th
David Lee 30th
Draymond Green 36th
Chandler Parsons 38th
Jeremy Lin undrafted
Wes Matthews undrafted

Three quarters of these players were drafted mid first round or lower, and two of them were undrafted. Battier we know about in terms of the jump in his stock after winning a championship, though Lillard seems to be the most clear cut "success story" in terms of benefits from staying longer and being drafted high -- but he had to redshirt his junior year and was still a mystery after his sophomore year because he played in the Big Sky conference.

The point is that while this may be a very good group of high character, quality pros who benefited from and enjoyed their college experience, a considerable majority were not projected as lottery picks, let alone being top three. Several of them were surprises or major finds with many question marks. (even Lillard sort of qualifies here, as his draft position was the subject of major discussion prior to the draft)

Hood and Parker, on the other hand, are known quantities with very positive buzz, and staying longer in today's climate when you already enjoy very high visibility can bring about negatives as well as positives with the increased scrutiny (and the caveat, in Hood's case, that the NBA does consider age and upside). If one or both of them wanted to stay at Duke another year, more power to them, but the above list of players isn't really a model for taking that alternative path.

This is good stuff here. And I wouldn't compare Jabari (but Rodney's for sure) decision to that of a 4 year player. If you expand the talent pool to include players that left after their second or third year then things get a lot more interesting. However, Jabari for the most part has a Kevin Durant decision and I don't see why anyone should EXPECT him to stay.

[CDu]

This is good stuff here. And I wouldn't compare Jabari (but Rodney's for sure) decision to that of a 4 year player. If you expand the talent pool to include players that left after their second or third year then things get a lot more interesting. However, Jabari for the most part has a Kevin Durant decision and I don't see why anyone should EXPECT him to stay.

On this I completely agree. Very few guys in the past 5-10 years have positioned themselves the way Parker has (in terms of performance/potential) as a freshman and decided to come back for his sophomore year. Like, less than 5 I'd guess. The expectation should be that he goes pro.

[Mike Corey]

Mike are you sayin' there's a chance?

I trust Airowe.

[JasonEvans]

Seeing as nothing official has happened yet (even though there are plenty of rumors going around), I reopened the poll so folks can vote again.

-Jason

[MCFinARL]

It's totally reasonable that both of them go pro. It seems less terrific if they have absolutely decided but are hanging on to their decision for some reason. Maybe Jabari wants to emphasize his interest in school, and Rodney is trying to goose himself into the lottery, but I'd really rather not waste my time checking in to see on their draft status. So they should announce already, just to improve my daily efficiency.

Similarly, if Myles knows his final 2 or 3, announce them.

Basically, I'd like to start focusing on the 2014-15 team, which is looking to be a really great team without any of the unlikelies.

Well, okay, but assuming this is true, without knowing what that reason is, why is it "less terrific"? Do these players owe us, as fans, the duty to make their announcements when we want them?

Maybe they wanted to go to the banquet still being fully members of the Duke team--to prolong the full college experience a little bit. Maybe they want to postpone announcements until they have had a chance to speak with everyone who has been a trusted adviser, even if those conversations are pro forma. Maybe they want to wait until they know who they will select as agents so they are ready to move forward right away. Maybe they want to have parents or other family members present when they make their announcements (which might make right after the banquet a likely time). Is our interest in knowing their choices greater than their interest in doing things in the manner and order they want to?

It would be one thing if they were keeping the coaching staff in the dark--but I am pretty confident that if Jabari and Rodney have made their decisions (which I suspect they have), the coaches know what those decisions are. The coaching staff can be planning for the future without having to tip the players' hands before the players are ready to make their decisions public.

Myles Turner raises a different set of issues because multiple teams and coaches are involved, and a recruit couldn't likely inform coaches of a school that he had cut them from his list without announcing it publicly. There is always the possibility that kids keep schools on their list that they are not really considering for publicity reasons, or because they like/respect certain coaches and don't want to disappoint them, or for whatever reason. So coaching staffs have to play a bit of a guessing game as to how likely it is that a recruit is still interested in their school. My guess is that most of the time the Duke coaching staff is pretty good at this, although there are always surprises.

But I think we ought to give Turner the benefit of the doubt here. We don't know that he has really cut his list just because someone tweets that he has; it may be that those schools are his leaders, but he truly hasn't ruled out the others. In particular, Turner has said that he wanted to play with some of the recruits going to the schools on his list in the series of all-star games that ends with the Jordan Brand Classic tomorrow, to see how well they would fit together. So he is still collecting data for his decision. Even if, for example, Duke is now trailing other options, the experience in that game, coupled with the decision of Jabari Parker, might change his opinion. Why not let him take the time he needs to be really sure?

[gumbomoop]

.... we ought to give Turner the benefit of the doubt here. We don't know that he has really cut his list just because someone tweets that he has; it may be that those schools are his leaders, but he truly hasn't ruled out the others. In particular, Turner has said that he wanted to play with some of the recruits going to the schools on his list in the series of all-star games that ends with the Jordan Brand Classic tomorrow, to see how well they would fit together. So he is still collecting data for his decision. Even if, for example, Duke is now trailing other options, the experience in that game, coupled with the decision of Jabari Parker, might change his opinion. Why not let him take the time he needs to be really sure?

Yep, and from the 2014 recruiting thread:


Fun with twitter...

Omar Majzoub ‏@OmarMaz34 5h
2014 five-star big man Myles Turner has cut list of schools down to just Kansas, Texas and #SMU, according to @chadfordinsider

Myles Turner ‏@Original_Turner 4h
There is no truth to me cutting my list to 3 schools, thank you

[burns15]

Yep, and from the 2014 recruiting thread:

Maybe Chad Ford should stick to what he "knows", the NBA, and stay out of NCAA recruiting topics, which he does not cover.

[CameronBornAndBred]

I lose. :(