Shot Selection

[pfrduke]

I wanted to unpack our offense a little bit. This thread will focus on shot selection, another to follow will focus on assists. Everything is broken down according to the following shot types: 3s, layups, dunks, tip-ins, and 2pt jump shots (which is any 2 that is not a layup, dunk, or tip). I don't have access to the fancy SportsVU data, so this is less precise than I would prefer it to be (in an ideal world, I'd do a graphical plot, but this is not an ideal world). I'm at the whim of scorekeepers deciding what counts as a layup and what counts as a jump shot. Not every jump shot is a 15-footer, it includes many shots in the paint. If I had better data, I'd separate out the paint jumpers from the non-paint jumpers, but the scorebooks only record paint information when the shot is a make, not a miss.

This first post will have our team data, and the subsequent posts will provide player information. I've broken it out into 3 segments - full season, non-ACC (pre-conference play plus Mercer), and ACC (all conference play, including the ACC tournament). However, because of issues with the game @UNC and the ACC championship game (specifically, the scorekeepers didn't distinguish between 2-point jumpers and layups, instead recording everything as a jumper) those games are excluded from the count so as not to skew the data and make it look like we took more 2-point jumpers than we actually did.

Tables are below. A couple observations:


We scored, overall, 1.09 points per shot. That's pretty good. It was the best in the ACC, and among the best in the country.
We actually shot pretty well on 2-point jumpers, at 40%. It's not been unusual in the past for that number to be below the 3 point %. That being said, even shooting 40% meant that we picked up just 0.80 points per shot on 535 of our shots. On the other shots, we netted 1.20 points per shot. Every 3, layup, dunk, and tip-in, in the aggregate, was worth half again as much as every 2-point jumper.
Our shot distribution was good, but not great, and it got slightly worse against ACC opponents. We took 40.4% of our shots from 3, 31.4% from close in (layups, dunks, & tips), and 28.2% from all other spots inside the arc. In ACC play, we kept the jumpers reasonably low - 28.9%, but skewed more toward 3s than toward inside (41.5% deep, 29.6% close in). From pure statistical purposes, I'm not sure exactly what the ideal split is, but my gut sense is that I'd like 2 point jumpers closer to 25% or below with the other shots evenly split between 3s and close.
We left a lot of points on the floor from bad shooting on layups. We shot 55.5% on layups (54.6% if you include tips), which is really not great. Shooting 60% on layups and tips, which is attainable, would have yielded us an extra 52 points.
All of our ACC shooting was much worse than our non-ACC shooting. We went from shooting 44%/62.6%/41% (2pt jumpers, layups/dunks/tips, 3s) in pre-conference play to 37.2%/59.3%/38.6% against ACC opposition. Some regression is expected, both because of quality of opponent and because shooting a collective 42.2% on jump shots isn't really sustainable, but this was a big drop off.


All


2pt J
214
535
40.00%


Layup
256
461
55.53%


Dunk
96
109
88.07%


Tip-in
9
24
37.50%


3pt J
303
765
39.61%


LD
352
570
61.75%


LDT
361
594
60.77%


Jump
517
1300
39.77%


2s
575
1129
50.93%


All
878
1894
46.36%



Non-ACC


2pt J
98
223
43.95%


Layup
128
221
57.92%


Dunk
40
45
88.89%


Tip-in
4
9
44.44%


3pt J
130
317
41.01%


LD
168
266
63.16%


LDT
172
275
62.55%


Jump
228
540
42.22%


2s
270
498
54.22%


All
400
815
49.08%



ACC


2pt J
116
312
37.18%


Layup
128
240
53.33%


Dunk
56
64
87.50%


Tip-in
5
15
33.33%


3pt J
173
448
38.62%


LD
184
304
60.53%


LDT
189
319
59.25%


Jump
289
760
38.03%


2s
305
631
48.34%


All
478
1079
44.30%



For the categories above that aren't obvious, LD is layups + dunks, LDT is layups + dunks + tip-ins, and Jump is 2pt jumpers + 3s. And, just a reminder, all numbers above and throughout this thread do not include @UNC or the ACCCG.

[pfrduke]

I'm torn on what I think about Jabari's ability to finish. In one sense, getting 58 dunks (almost 2/game) is strong finishing. In another sense, shooting 47.8% on layups very much is not. Lot's of room for improvement there - upping that to 60% is another ~30 points to Parker alone.

Jabari's 3-point shooting - and jump shooting as a whole - fell off dramatically in ACC play. He hit 42.6% of his 3s and 45.2% of all jumpers in non-ACC play against 29.6% from 3 and 32.0% on all jumpers in ACC play.

The other observation I have on Jabari is that, somewhat contrary to what I thought watching the games, his shot selection didn't really change over the season. In non-ACC play, he took 79/81/47 shots (2pt jumpers, close in, 3s); in ACC play it was 99/102/54. Slightly fewer 3s as a proportion of his attempts, but not really a different profile. He should aim for more of a 50/50 distribution.

All


2pt J
70
178
39.33%


Layup
54
113
47.79%


Dunk
58
64
90.63%


Tip-in
2
6
33.33%


3pt J
36
101
35.64%


LD
112
177
63.28%


LDT
114
183
62.30%


Jump
106
279
37.99%


2s
184
361
50.97%


All
220
462
47.62%



Non-ACC


2pt J
37
79
46.84%


Layup
26
52
50.00%


Dunk
22
26
84.62%


Tip-in
1
3
33.33%


3pt J
20
47
42.55%


LD
48
78
61.54%


LDT
49
81
60.49%


Jump
57
126
45.24%


2s
86
160
53.75%


All
106
207
51.21%



ACC


2pt J
33
99
33.33%


Layup
28
61
45.90%


Dunk
36
38
94.74%


Tip-in
1
3
33.33%


3pt J
16
54
29.63%


LD
64
99
64.65%


LDT
65
102
63.73%


Jump
49
153
32.03%


2s
98
201
48.76%


All
114
255
44.71%

[pfrduke]

No single player was more reliant on 2 point jump shots relative to total 2 point attempts than Hood, and only Dawkins and Thornton (who collectively took 5 of every 6 shots from 3) were more total jump shot heavy. He took roughly 1 in 5 of his shots from close in and was down around 1 in 6 in ACC play. For someone who lined up as our 4 for a not insignificant amount of minutes, that's simply not enough inside play. It also supports why he's being profiled as a 2 at the next level - his game is shooting moreso than getting to the rim.

All


2pt J
63
146
43.15%


Layup
34
60
56.67%


Dunk
14
16
87.50%


Tip-in
1
1
100.00%


3pt J
67
161
41.61%


LD
48
76
63.16%


LDT
49
77
63.64%


Jump
130
307
42.35%


2s
112
223
50.22%


All
179
384
46.61%



Non-ACC


2pt J
29
61
47.54%


Layup
17
29
58.62%


Dunk
6
6
100.00%


Tip-in
1
1
100.00%


3pt J
23
54
42.59%


LD
23
35
65.71%


LDT
24
36
66.67%


Jump
52
115
45.22%


2s
53
97
54.64%


All
76
151
50.33%



ACC


2pt J
34
85
40.00%


Layup
17
31
54.84%


Dunk
8
10
80.00%


Tip-in
0
0
0.00%


3pt J
44
107
41.12%


LD
25
41
60.98%


LDT
25
41
60.98%


Jump
78
192
40.63%


2s
59
126
46.83%


All
103
233
44.21%

[pfrduke]

Quinn was skewed toward 3s, but when he did venture inside the arc, he did it at the rim far more often than not - basically 3 layups for every 2 two point jumpers. He was also an excellent finisher for a small guard - nearly 60% on layups overall, although much better in non-ACC play (67%) than in conference (50%).

All


2pt J
19
50
38.00%


Layup
48
81
59.26%


Dunk
0
0
0.00%


Tip-in
0
0
0.00%


3pt J
61
166
36.75%


LD
48
81
59.26%


LDT
48
81
59.26%


Jump
80
216
37.04%


2s
67
131
51.15%


All
128
297
43.10%



Non-ACC


2pt J
11
25
44.00%


Layup
29
43
67.44%


Dunk


0.00%


Tip-in


0.00%


3pt J
29
74
39.19%


LD
29
43
67.44%


LDT
29
43
67.44%


Jump
40
99
40.40%


2s
40
68
58.82%


All
69
142
48.59%



ACC


2pt J
8
25
32.00%


Layup
19
38
50.00%


Dunk
0
0
0.00%


Tip-in
0
0
0.00%


3pt J
32
92
34.78%


LD
19
38
50.00%


LDT
19
38
50.00%


Jump
40
117
34.19%


2s
27
63
42.86%


All
59
155
38.06%

[pfrduke]

Rasheed has the reverse distribution from Quinn inside the arc - half again as many jumpers as close in shots. While he took far fewer 3s, hew was more jumpshot dependent than Quinn (78% vs. 72%).

Some of the shot selection may have been performance driven - he was, considering volume, the worst finisher on the team, shooting 46.2% on layups overall and just 42.9% on them in ACC play. Finishing better, and choosing to go to the rim, more than pulling up, will be necessary for further growth.

Sheed also had an excellent finish to the season from 3 - 45.5% in ACC play. That was one of the only areas of shot improvement from non-conference to conference play across the team as a whole.

All


2pt J
29
78
37.18%


Layup
24
52
46.15%


Dunk
1
1
100.00%


Tip-in
0
0
0.00%


3pt J
43
100
43.00%


LD
25
53
47.17%


LDT
25
53
47.17%


Jump
72
178
40.45%


2s
54
131
41.22%


All
97
231
41.99%



Non-ACC


2pt J
9
28
32.14%


Layup
9
17
52.94%


Dunk
1
1
100.00%


Tip-in


0.00%


3pt J
13
34
38.24%


LD
10
18
55.56%


LDT
10
18
55.56%


Jump
22
62
35.48%


2s
19
46
41.30%


All
32
80
40.00%



ACC


2pt J
20
50
40.00%


Layup
15
35
42.86%


Dunk
0
0
0.00%


Tip-in
0
0
0.00%


3pt J
30
66
45.45%


LD
15
35
42.86%


LDT
15
35
42.86%


Jump
50
116
43.10%


2s
35
85
41.18%


All
65
151
43.05%

[pfrduke]

No surprises here - Dre took over 80% of his shots from deep and just 6.2% at the rim.

All


2pt J
12
23
52.17%


Layup
3
6
50.00%


Dunk
2
4
50.00%


Tip-in
1
1
100.00%


3pt J
61
144
42.36%


LD
5
10
50.00%


LDT
6
11
54.55%


Jump
73
167
43.71%


2s
18
34
52.94%


All
79
178
44.38%



Non-ACC


2pt J
4
6
66.67%


Layup
2
3
66.67%


Dunk
1
1
100.00%


Tip-in


0.00%


3pt J
30
64
46.88%


LD
3
4
75.00%


LDT
3
4
75.00%


Jump
34
70
48.57%


2s
7
10
70.00%


All
37
74
50.00%



ACC


2pt J
8
17
47.06%


Layup
1
3
33.33%


Dunk
1
3
33.33%


Tip-in
1
1
100.00%


3pt J
31
80
38.75%


LD
2
6
33.33%


LDT
3
7
42.86%


Jump
39
97
40.21%


2s
11
24
45.83%


All
42
104
40.38%

[pfrduke]

Amile finished well. Yes, much of these shots came off of assists and offensive rebounds (which includes more than just straight tip-ins - and that's a good thing, because he needs some work on tip buckets), but he also finished the opportunities he got there to the tune of 67% from close in overall (68.8% in ACC play).

All


2pt J
11
21
52.38%


Layup
65
96
67.71%


Dunk
10
11
90.91%


Tip-in
2
8
25.00%


3pt J
0
0
0.00%


LD
75
107
70.09%


LDT
77
115
66.96%


Jump
11
21
52.38%


2s
88
136
64.71%


All
88
136
64.71%



Non-ACC


2
5
40.00%


28
44
63.64%


4
5
80.00%


1
2
50.00%




0.00%


32
49
65.31%


33
51
64.71%


2
5
40.00%


35
56
62.50%


35
56
62.50%



ACC


2pt J
9
16
56.25%


Layup
37
52
71.15%


Dunk
6
6
100.00%


Tip-in
1
6
16.67%


3pt J
0
0
0.00%


LD
43
58
74.14%


LDT
44
64
68.75%


Jump
9
16
56.25%


2s
53
80
66.25%


All
53
80
66.25%

[pfrduke]

Never ventured inside the arc, particularly once ACC play rolled around when 41 of his 45 shots came from 3. He took 1 layup in the 19 ACC games captured here.

All


2pt J
2
7
28.57%


Layup
3
7
42.86%


Dunk
0
0
0.00%


Tip-in
0
1
0.00%


3pt J
27
59
45.76%


LD
3
7
42.86%


LDT
3
8
37.50%


Jump
29
66
43.94%


2s
5
15
33.33%


All
32
74
43.24%



Non-ACC


2pt J
1
4
25.00%


Layup
3
6
50.00%


Dunk


0.00%


Tip-in

1
0.00%


3pt J
9
18
50.00%


LD
3
6
50.00%


LDT
3
7
42.86%


Jump
10
22
45.45%


2s
4
11
36.36%


All
13
29
44.83%



ACC


2pt J
1
3
33.33%


Layup
0
1
0.00%


Dunk
0
0
0.00%


Tip-in
0
0
0.00%


3pt J
18
41
43.90%


LD
0
1
0.00%


LDT
0
1
0.00%


Jump
19
44
43.18%


2s
1
4
25.00%


All
19
45
42.22%

[pfrduke]

Basically everything at the rim and pretty strong at finishing - 73.7% close in - although virtually none of that was self-created. He made only one shot away from the rim all season.

All


2pt J
1
7
14.29%


Layup
8
11
72.73%


Dunk
6
7
85.71%


Tip-in
0
1
0.00%


3pt J
0
0
0.00%


LD
14
18
77.78%


LDT
14
19
73.68%


Jump
1
7
14.29%


2s
15
26
57.69%


All
15
26
57.69%



Non-ACC


2pt J
1
3
33.33%


Layup
2
2
100.00%


Dunk
2
2
100.00%


Tip-in


0.00%


3pt J


0.00%


LD
4
4
100.00%


LDT
4
4
100.00%


Jump
1
3
33.33%


2s
5
7
71.43%


All
5
7
71.43%



ACC


2pt J
0
4
0.00%


Layup
6
9
66.67%


Dunk
4
5
80.00%


Tip-in
0
1
0.00%


3pt J
0
0
0.00%


LD
10
14
71.43%


LDT
10
15
66.67%


Jump
0
4
0.00%


2s
10
19
52.63%


All
10
19
52.63%

[pfrduke]

Matt shot under 30% from the floor on the season and took over 40% of his shots from 3 despite hitting just 1 in 7 of them. Jump shooting (22.9% on the year) is the biggest area of improvement, although his finishing has room to grow as well.

All


2pt J
5
14
35.71%


Layup
6
15
40.00%


Dunk
1
1
100.00%


Tip-in
0
0
0.00%


3pt J
3
21
14.29%


LD
7
16
43.75%


LDT
7
16
43.75%


Jump
8
35
22.86%


2s
12
30
40.00%


All
15
51
29.41%



Non-ACC


2pt J
4
8
50.00%


Layup
2
8
25.00%


Dunk
1
1
100.00%


Tip-in


0.00%


3pt J
2
14
14.29%


LD
3
9
33.33%


LDT
3
9
33.33%


Jump
6
22
27.27%


2s
7
17
41.18%


All
9
31
29.03%



ACC


2pt J
1
6
16.67%


Layup
4
7
57.14%


Dunk
0
0
0.00%


Tip-in
0
0
0.00%


3pt J
1
7
14.29%


LD
4
7
57.14%


LDT
4
7
57.14%


Jump
2
13
15.38%


2s
5
13
38.46%


All
6
20
30.00%

[pfrduke]

He did a better job eliminating the jumpers from his game - just 10 in 34 attempts, with everything else coming at the rim.

All


2pt J
2
9
22.22%


Layup
8
13
61.54%


Dunk
4
5
80.00%


Tip-in
3
6
50.00%


3pt J
0
1
0.00%


LD
12
18
66.67%


LDT
15
24
62.50%


Jump
2
10
20.00%


2s
17
33
51.52%


All
17
34
50.00%



Non-ACC


2pt J

3
0.00%


Layup
7
11
63.64%


Dunk
3
3
100.00%


Tip-in
1
2
50.00%


3pt J

1
0.00%


LD
10
14
71.43%


LDT
11
16
68.75%


Jump
0
4
0.00%


2s
11
19
57.89%


All
11
20
55.00%



ACC


2pt J
2
6
33.33%


Layup
1
2
50.00%


Dunk
1
2
50.00%


Tip-in
2
4
50.00%


3pt J
0
0
0.00%


LD
2
4
50.00%


LDT
4
8
50.00%


Jump
2
6
33.33%


2s
6
14
42.86%


All
6
14
42.86%

[pfrduke]

Not a lot to be gleaned from 14 shots on the season (Jabari and Rodney each had several games with more shots than that) but the initial distribution of 6 layups, 7 3s, and just 1 2-point jumper suggests smart shot selection. Really can't draw conclusions, though.

All


2pt J
0
1
0.00%


Layup
3
6
50.00%


Dunk
0
0
0.00%


Tip-in
0
0
0.00%


3pt J
4
7
57.14%


LD
3
6
50.00%


LDT
3
6
50.00%


Jump
4
8
50.00%


2s
3
7
42.86%


All
7
14
50.00%



Non-ACC


2pt J

1
0.00%


Layup
3
5
60.00%


Dunk


0.00%


Tip-in


0.00%


3pt J
3
6
50.00%


LD
3
5
60.00%


LDT
3
5
60.00%


Jump
3
7
42.86%


2s
3
6
50.00%


All
6
12
50.00%



ACC


2pt J
0
0
0.00%


Layup
0
1
0.00%


Dunk
0
0
0.00%


Tip-in
0
0
0.00%


3pt J
1
1
100.00%


LD
0
1
0.00%


LDT
0
1
0.00%


Jump
1
1
100.00%


2s
0
1
0.00%


All
1
2
50.00%

[Kedsy]

Wow, great work, pfrduke. I haven't finished studying this stuff enough to make a substantive comment, but thanks for all this effort.

[Des Esseintes]

Basically everything at the rim and pretty strong at finishing - 73.7% close in - although virtually none of that was self-created. He made only one shot away from the rim all season.
Ah, but we all remember that jump hook as if it were yesterday. I think greybeard argued Marshall could get 15ppg off it.

But seriously, thank you so much for these tables. They are beyond wonderful, and the amount of labor that went into them is evident.

[tommy]

I agree. This is simply fabulous work, pfr. I haven't had a chance to digest it either, but I feel I've been remiss in not acknowledging the tremendous effort you put forth to produce these tables. Thanks!