The Jabari Delusion

[gumbomoop]

Usually a little hesitant to begin a new thread, I do so because the musings below don't exactly fit in any of 3 existing threads -- Jabari draft vigil, 2014-15 starters/rotation, Turner waiting on Jabari -- but pick up on issues found in all 3. In addition, and most important, I muse below on what happens to the rotation if, delusionally, Jabari were actually to return. [To those who think all the rumours of even a long-shot-possible Jabari-return are nonsense, well, you will not want to waste your time with the false-premise-based musings below.]

Say, delusionally, Jabari returns. That would, presumably, lead the mods immediately to close the "Musings of 2014-15 Starters & Rotation Players" thread, as the posts therein were not burdened by any Jabari delusions. Burdened by the discombobulating news of Jabari's return, we are undone, and have to muse anew.

Jabari next season -- at Duke, just so we're clear -- would play both stretch 4 and wing/SF. "Not at the same time," you [particularly those of you who politely declined my well-intentioned advice above] snark. But in a sense, yes. [Among several Jabari delusions....] He would share time at the 4 with Amile, and at the 3 with Justise and/or others.

In what sense "at the same time"? Jabari is the same player, on O, no matter who the other "forward" is at any particular moment. That is, as during this season, he'll move around. On O. Sometimes he'll be in the corner for a 3, or at the top of the circle, either for a 3 or for a cross-over dribble-blast to the rim. Sometimes he'll post, awaiting a 45-degree entry pass from Tyus; other times a pass from just above the FT line from Jahlil, who sees over everybody. Sometimes he'll attack from the elbow.

On D, Jabari won't play the 3 and 4 simultaneously. ["Well, that's good." More snark; perfectly understandable.] On the floor with, say, Tyus, Rasheed, Amile, and Jahlil, Jabari guards the opposing wing/3/SF. With, say, Quinn, Tyus, Justise, and Marshall, Jabari guards the opposing PF. Ditto with Tyus, Rasheed, Matt [a few minutes of perimeter-small-ball, with different combos, each game], and Jahlil.

But no matter whether on D he's guarding the opposing 3 or 4, on O he's moving around. He moved around a lot on O this season, so that's not new.

As my purpose in this new thread is to encourage a new set of rotation-musings, under the burdensome, but enjoyable, delusion that Jabari returns, I don't see a simple way to muse further about rotation without linking my projections with mpg. Absent some mpg projections, every sentence would have to be qualified to the point of utter confusion. With apologies, then:

PG -- Tyus 32, Quinn 8
Wing/2 -- Rasheed 28, Quinn 12
Wing/3 -- Jabari 14, Justise 16, Matt/Grayson 10
Stretch 4/PF -- Jabari 18, Amile 22
C -- Jahlil 30, Marshall 10

No minutes for Semi? No, and here I think gocanes0506 has it right .....


If either Jabari or Hood come back and/or Turner comes here K should look at red shirting Semi.

Should Jabari return, it seems to me the truth is that every player save Tyus, Jahlil, and Marshall will see greatly or slightly reduced mpg. Well, the truth according to me. If you accept that Jabari is returning -- the premise of this thread -- but believe he will "play" only the 4, ok, then only Amile's minutes go down, way, way down. But, as I've noted above, I think he'll roam on O. Further, despite my high expectations of Justise, and, further still, despite acknowledging that Justise, Matt, and Grayson constitute some very promising wings, I value Amile's proven contributions even more.

But with a roster of 11 rather than 10, the addition being Jabari, something -- i.e., many minutes -- has to give. And we know both that Krzyzewski is no longer averse to redshirting -- recall the shock of 2 redshirts announced at beginning of 2011-12 -- and that he also regrets not having redshirted Ryan his Fr year. Does he regret not having redshirted Semi last season? I'm not asking, and the answer just now is, probably not. But a returning Jabari is a whole 'nother thing going forward; it's just very tough to find minutes for Semi.

Could Matt, Grayson, or Amile be redshirted, instead? Yes, but Semi seems the most likely candidate. But is the most likely scenario that no one will redshirt? Close call.

Now, to other issues in my mpg musing-list. Only 20 for Quinn? Some will insist he might still start. I doubt it, but it's muse-able. Some will find 25 or 28 for him, but I can't. Others will find 4-5 more minutes for Rasheed. Justise fanatics will find at least 22 for him, probably rejecting my prediction that Jabari will play some wing/3/SF. Some will predict substantial improvement for Matt; recent Grayson converts will insist he's got game, right now, 10-15 mpg worth.

I'm just sayin' ...... if Jabari returns, it's a lotta minutes.

So don't delude yourself.

[dukelifer]

Usually a little hesitant to begin a new thread, I do so because the musings below don't exactly fit in any of 3 existing threads -- Jabari draft vigil, 2014-15 starters/rotation, Turner waiting on Jabari -- but pick up on issues found in all 3. In addition, and most important, I muse below on what happens to the rotation if, delusionally, Jabari were actually to return. [To those who think all the rumours of even a long-shot-possible Jabari-return are nonsense, well, you will not want to waste your time with the false-premise-based musings below.]

Say, delusionally, Jabari returns. That would, presumably, lead the mods immediately to close the "Musings of 2014-15 Starters & Rotation Players" thread, as the posts therein were not burdened by any Jabari delusions. Burdened by the discombobulating news of Jabari's return, we are undone, and have to muse anew.

Jabari next season -- at Duke, just so we're clear -- would play both stretch 4 and wing/SF. "Not at the same time," you [particularly those of you who politely declined my well-intentioned advice above] snark. But in a sense, yes. [Among several Jabari delusions....] He would share time at the 4 with Amile, and at the 3 with Justise and/or others.

In what sense "at the same time"? Jabari is the same player, on O, no matter who the other "forward" is at any particular moment. That is, as during this season, he'll move around. On O. Sometimes he'll be in the corner for a 3, or at the top of the circle, either for a 3 or for a cross-over dribble-blast to the rim. Sometimes he'll post, awaiting a 45-degree entry pass from Tyus; other times a pass from just above the FT line from Jahlil, who sees over everybody. Sometimes he'll attack from the elbow.

On D, Jabari won't play the 3 and 4 simultaneously. ["Well, that's good." More snark; perfectly understandable.] On the floor with, say, Tyus, Rasheed, Amile, and Jahlil, Jabari guards the opposing wing/3/SF. With, say, Quinn, Tyus, Justise, and Marshall, Jabari guards the opposing PF. Ditto with Tyus, Rasheed, Matt [a few minutes of perimeter-small-ball, with different combos, each game], and Jahlil.

But no matter whether on D he's guarding the opposing 3 or 4, on O he's moving around. He moved around a lot on O this season, so that's not new.

As my purpose in this new thread is to encourage a new set of rotation-musings, under the burdensome, but enjoyable, delusion that Jabari returns, I don't see a simple way to muse further about rotation without linking my projections with mpg. Absent some mpg projections, every sentence would have to be qualified to the point of utter confusion. With apologies, then:

PG -- Tyus 32, Quinn 8
Wing/2 -- Rasheed 28, Quinn 12
Wing/3 -- Jabari 14, Justise 16, Matt/Grayson 10
Stretch 4/PF -- Jabari 18, Amile 22
C -- Jahlil 30, Marshall 10

No minutes for Semi? No, and here I think gocanes0506 has it right .....



Should Jabari return, it seems to me the truth is that every player save Tyus, Jahlil, and Marshall will see greatly or slightly reduced mpg. Well, the truth according to me. If you accept that Jabari is returning -- the premise of this thread -- but believe he will "play" only the 4, ok, then only Amile's minutes go down, way, way down. But, as I've noted above, I think he'll roam on O. Further, despite my high expectations of Justise, and, further still, despite acknowledging that Justise, Matt, and Grayson constitute some very promising wings, I value Amile's proven contributions even more.

But with a roster of 11 rather than 10, the addition being Jabari, something -- i.e., many minutes -- has to give. And we know both that Krzyzewski is no longer averse to redshirting -- recall the shock of 2 redshirts announced at beginning of 2011-12 -- and that he also regrets not having redshirted Ryan his Fr year. Does he regret not having redshirted Semi last season? I'm not asking, and the answer just now is, probably not. But a returning Jabari is a whole 'nother thing going forward; it's just very tough to find minutes for Semi.

Could Matt, Grayson, or Amile be redshirted, instead? Yes, but Semi seems the most likely candidate. But is the most likely scenario that no one will redshirt? Close call.

Now, to other issues in my mpg musing-list. Only 20 for Quinn? Some will insist he might still start. I doubt it, but it's muse-able. Some will find 25 or 28 for him, but I can't. Others will find 4-5 more minutes for Rasheed. Justise fanatics will find at least 22 for him, probably rejecting my prediction that Jabari will play some wing/3/SF. Some will predict substantial improvement for Matt; recent Grayson converts will insist he's got game, right now, 10-15 mpg worth.

I'm just sayin' ...... if Jabari returns, it's a lotta minutes.

So don't delude yourself.

Justise just needs to play in the last 3 minutes of a tight game- defense for offense. He has one job- get a stop ;)

[Henderson]

I'll play in that delusion.

I agree with these two points made by gumbomoop:

1. If Jabari comes back, there are probably 30-35 minutes out of 200 per game that are unavailable to others. That's significant.
2. If Jabari comes back, it probably makes sense to redshirt someone, and Semi might be a natural choice. Grayson Allen could be another. Maybe even both.

But I think it's a mistake to think in terms of specific positions for specific players, except for Jahlil/MP3. Especially for Jabari, about whom K has said over and over he doesn't have a position. K thinks more in terms of bigs and non-bigs, with players called upon under various situations to play here or there on both offense and defense. The focus on who's a PG, who's a SG, who's a SF, and who's a PF just doesn't mesh with what K is trying to do. It's different in special situations, where a player has one position that's so obvious for him (Kyrie for example; already mentioned Jahlil and Marshall), but I think there's way too much emphasis in a lot of threads here as to specific positions for other players. If you listen to K talk about this stuff, I think you'll agree. Just a pet peeve of mine applicable to a lot of threads.

[Wander]

I'll believe Jabari at the 3 for significant minutes only when I see it. That's not K's style. Most likely is that Jabari, Amile, and Jahlil would split the 80 minutes at the 4/5, with Marshall doing foul trouble spotting. This would be made up for in your chart by Rasheed getting some minutes at the 3.

[blazindw]

It's definitely not delusion to think that Jabari might come back. He could come back. He could also leave. We don't know anything yet. We have this tendency to ship people to the NBA before they've announced it. Until he decides to enter the NBA draft, he's still an active Duke player and it's not delusion, in my opinion, to think of him as such until that day comes.

[Ichabod Drain]

I'll believe Jabari at the 3 for significant minutes only when I see it. That's not K's style. Most likely is that Jabari, Amile, and Jahlil would split the 80 minutes at the 4/5, with Marshall doing foul trouble spotting. This would be made up for in your chart by Rasheed getting some minutes at the 3.

What do you mean it's not K's style?

[Jackson]

If Jabari does come back, I don't see any instance in which Duke would be forced to use Sheed at the 3. He would stay in the back court full-time. Between Oakfor, Jabari, Justise and Amile, there are no meaningful minutes remaining unless someone is in foul trouble and that would be Marshall's role. Back court would be mainly between Sheed, Tyus and Quin. That is a 7 man rotation. Maybe add in Matt Jones or Grayson if he steps up. If Jabari would announce to come back, what's the over under on how long it takes until the thread starts for the undefeated season?

[CDu]

I'll play in that delusion.

I agree with these two points made by gumbomoop:

1. If Jabari comes back, there are probably 30-35 minutes out of 200 per game that are unavailable to others. That's significant.
2. If Jabari comes back, it probably makes sense to redshirt someone, and Semi might be a natural choice. Grayson Allen could be another. Maybe even both.

But I think it's a mistake to think in terms of specific positions for specific players, except for Jahlil/MP3. Especially for Jabari, about whom K has said over and over he doesn't have a position. K thinks more in terms of bigs and non-bigs, with players called upon under various situations to play here or there on both offense and defense. The focus on who's a PG, who's a SG, who's a SF, and who's a PF just doesn't mesh with what K is trying to do. It's different in special situations, where a player has one position that's so obvious for him (Kyrie for example; already mentioned Jahlil and Marshall), but I think there's way too much emphasis in a lot of threads here as to specific positions for other players. If you listen to K talk about this stuff, I think you'll agree. Just a pet peeve of mine applicable to a lot of threads.

I would say it a different way. I think Coach K sees 4 types of players: "big men", "forwards", "wings", and "point guards."

"Big men" are guys who would translate to PF or C in the NBA. Examples would include the Brand, Burgess, Boozer, Williams, Zoubek, and Okafor. Generally these guys are post-oriented (defensively at least).

"Forwards" would guys who are a little smaller than the "big men" but bigger than the "wings." Usually they translate to SF in the NBA. This group would include guys like Deng, Battier, Parker, and Hill. Some of these forwards have guard-like skills (Parker, Hill, Singler). Sometimes they have less diverse offensive games (Battier, Deng). Some of them have offensive games more like a big (Lang, Thomas). These guys usually play PF in college, though sometimes they move to SF when the lineup demands (like Singler and Hill as upperclassmen and like Battier as an underclassman).

"Wings" are guys who would be classically considered SG or SF at the college level, and usually are SG at the NBA level (sometimes smallish SF). Examples would include Redick, Scheyer, Henderson, Nelson, Rivers, Langdon, Ewing, etc. This group of players are generally perimeter-oriented, but their skill sets range from some PG capabilities (like Ewing, Smith, and Scheyer) all the way to some baseline capabilities (like Nelson).

"Point guards" are a pretty straightforward category. These guys are the best ballhandlers and playmakers. Guys like Hurley, Williams, Duhon, Irving, and (hopefully) Tyus Jones.

Parker is a classic example of a "forward." He could play SF if needed. He can play PF as well. Either position is feasible.

That said, if Parker does return (and I will make no comment about whether or not it is delusional to consider it a possibility), I suspect there will be 3 players for whom folks on DBR will fret about minutes. And I think there would be a reasonable threat of a player (or two) deciding to transfer. But we would be a VERY good team with Parker. Like, with the potential (emphasis on "potential") to be one of our best teams ever.

[roywhite]

If Jabari does come back, I don't see any instance in which Duke would be forced to use Sheed at the 3. He would stay in the back court full-time. Between Oakfor, Jabari, Justise and Amile, there are no meaningful minutes remaining unless someone is in foul trouble and that would be Marshall's role. Back court would be mainly between Sheed, Tyus and Quin. That is a 7 man rotation. Maybe add in Matt Jones or Grayson if he steps up. If Jabari would announce to come back, what's the over under on how long it takes until the thread starts for the undefeated season?

Even in Jabari delusion world, there will be a very familiar, very formidable foe nearby -- UNC.

They don't lose much, return some very good players, and some who can develop further, plus their new talent is in the right places -- shooters and ball handlers. I'd say they would be able to play pretty well vs Jabari's Duke team, but of course I do remember Jabari laid 30 and 11 on them in Cameron. ;)

**Quick edit...looks like McAdoo may not be part of that 2014-15 UNC team; that's a significant loss, IMO.

[Matches]

I'll believe Jabari at the 3 for significant minutes only when I see it. That's not K's style.

There's a sense in which I think I agree with you - and yet, wouldn't Kyle Singler be Exhibit A to the contrary? He played almost exclusively at the 3 for his last two seasons at Duke.

[Henderson]

I would say it a different way. I think Coach K sees 4 types of players: "big men", "forwards", "wings", and "point guards."

"Big men" are guys who would translate to PF or C in the NBA. Examples would include the Brand, Burgess, Boozer, Williams, Zoubek, and Okafor. Generally these guys are post-oriented (defensively at least).

"Forwards" would guys who are a little smaller than the "big men" but bigger than the "wings." Usually they translate to SF in the NBA. This group would include guys like Deng, Battier, Parker, and Hill. Some of these forwards have guard-like skills (Parker, Hill, Singler). Sometimes they have less diverse offensive games (Battier, Deng). Some of them have offensive games more like a big (Lang, Thomas). These guys usually play PF in college, though sometimes they move to SF when the lineup demands (like Singler and Hill as upperclassmen and like Battier as an underclassman).

"Wings" are guys who would be classically considered SG or SF at the college level, and usually are SG at the NBA level (sometimes smallish SF). Examples would include Redick, Scheyer, Henderson, Nelson, Rivers, Langdon, Ewing, etc. This group of players are generally perimeter-oriented, but their skill sets range from some PG capabilities (like Ewing, Smith, and Scheyer) all the way to some baseline capabilities (like Nelson).

"Point guards" are a pretty straightforward category. These guys are the best ballhandlers and playmakers. Guys like Hurley, Williams, Duhon, Irving, and (hopefully) Tyus Jones.

Parker is a classic example of a "forward." He could play SF if needed. He can play PF as well. Either position is feasible.

That said, if Parker does return (and I will make no comment about whether or not it is delusional to consider it a possibility), I suspect there will be 3 players for whom folks on DBR will fret about minutes. And I think there would be a reasonable threat of a player (or two) deciding to transfer. But we would be a VERY good team with Parker. Like, with the potential (emphasis on "potential") to be one of our best teams ever.

Except we've seen Quinn play off-guard, Jabari and Amile defend the post, Rasheed and Scheyer play the point, etc. etc. It would be easy to say that they're playing out of position, but it seems more plausible to say they're playing in position and that the positions are more fluid under K than an easy reduction to 5 (or as you suggest 4) positions.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Except we've seen Quinn play off-guard, Jabari and Amile defend the post, Rasheed and Scheyer play the point, etc. etc. It would be easy to say that they're playing out of position, but it seems more plausible to say they're playing in position and that the positions are more fluid under K than an easy reduction to 5 (or as you suggest 4) positions.

I feel it is really unlikely - even in this Jabari parallel universe - that Scheyer sees any meaningful minutes next season at the point.

Book it.

[Wander]

There's a sense in which I think I agree with you - and yet, wouldn't Kyle Singler be Exhibit A to the contrary? He played almost exclusively at the 3 for his last two seasons at Duke.

Fair, but IMO that's only because the issue was forced due to a ridiculous lack of depth at guard in 2010 (obviously, didn't hurt us) and Kyrie's injury in 2011. So I guess I should amend my statement to say that I'm assuming there are no health/transfer surprises on the roster next year.

[CDu]

Except we've seen Quinn play off-guard, Jabari and Amile defend the post, Rasheed and Scheyer play the point, etc. etc. It would be easy to say that they're playing out of position, but it seems more plausible to say they're playing in position and that the positions are more fluid under K than an easy reduction to 5 (or as you suggest 4) positions.

I disagree. I think the "playing out of position" is absolutely the most plausible explanation. How many times this year did Coach K make references to not having a big man? How many times did Coach K talk about lacking a PG in 2009? Answer: a lot. Somebody has to defend the center spot. That's why we saw Jefferson, Hairston, and Parker take time at C this year (because we just didn't have a solid alternative, as Plumlee wasn't ready). And somebody has to run the offense. That's why we had Scheyer play PG (because we didn't have another capable PG on the roster).

The "wing" position is flexible in that all you need to be is a good shooter and somewhat athletic to be an adequate wing. That's why you will so often see PG splaying some wing as well. If you're a PG, presumably you're quick/athletic enough for the wing, and if you are a PG who can shoot then you can play as a small wing. That's what happened to Paulus (who wasn't quick enough to play PG but could shoot) and Cook (due to shaky PG play).

[redick4pres]

I would say it a different way. I think Coach K sees 4 types of players: "big men", "forwards", "wings", and "point guards."

"Big men" are guys who would translate to PF or C in the NBA. Examples would include the Brand, Burgess, Boozer, Williams, Zoubek, and Okafor. Generally these guys are post-oriented (defensively at least).

"Forwards" would guys who are a little smaller than the "big men" but bigger than the "wings." Usually they translate to SF in the NBA. This group would include guys like Deng, Battier, Parker, and Hill. Some of these forwards have guard-like skills (Parker, Hill, Singler). Sometimes they have less diverse offensive games (Battier, Deng). Some of them have offensive games more like a big (Lang, Thomas). These guys usually play PF in college, though sometimes they move to SF when the lineup demands (like Singler and Hill as upperclassmen and like Battier as an underclassman).

"Wings" are guys who would be classically considered SG or SF at the college level, and usually are SG at the NBA level (sometimes smallish SF). Examples would include Redick, Scheyer, Henderson, Nelson, Rivers, Langdon, Ewing, etc. This group of players are generally perimeter-oriented, but their skill sets range from some PG capabilities (like Ewing, Smith, and Scheyer) all the way to some baseline capabilities (like Nelson).

"Point guards" are a pretty straightforward category. These guys are the best ballhandlers and playmakers. Guys like Hurley, Williams, Duhon, Irving, and (hopefully) Tyus Jones.

Parker is a classic example of a "forward." He could play SF if needed. He can play PF as well. Either position is feasible.

That said, if Parker does return (and I will make no comment about whether or not it is delusional to consider it a possibility), I suspect there will be 3 players for whom folks on DBR will fret about minutes. And I think there would be a reasonable threat of a player (or two) deciding to transfer. But we would be a VERY good team with Parker. Like, with the potential (emphasis on "potential") to be one of our best teams ever.

Don't forget our 2001 National title team played 6'9'' Mike Dunleavy at the 3/SF position. We also used 6'6" Nate Dawg at the 3/SF and the 2/SG positions that year. I could definitely see Jabari doing this as well on a team with Big-Jah and Amile. Size would no longer be an issue in the paint on D and we haven't had a team that big with that kind of talent since 2001. If we want a bigger team we could go Okafor, Jefferson, Parker, Justise, and Jones. If we want to go smaller with more shooters (K preferred strategy, typically) we could go Okafor, Parker, Suilamon, Cook, and Jones. With a PG like Jones, however, I think we might tend to go with a more in between lineup like Okafor, Jefferson, Parker, Sulaimon, and Jones. Either way, I see Jabari getting minutes at both the 3/SF and 4/PF positions. What do you think?

[Potato Head]

It's definitely not delusion to think that Jabari might come back. He could come back. He could also leave. We don't know anything yet. We have this tendency to ship people to the NBA before they've announced it. Until he decides to enter the NBA draft, he's still an active Duke player and it's not delusion, in my opinion, to think of him as such until that day comes.

Nope, it's a delusion. Sure there are and have been numerous reports out there since he came to Duke saying that he was seriously considering staying, but he's definitely going pro. There are no examples of a projected sure-fire lottery pick staying in college, and definitely no examples within the last 12 months.

[roywhite]

Nope, it's a delusion. Sure there are and have been numerous reports out there since he came to Duke saying that he was seriously considering staying, but he's definitely going pro. There are no examples of a projected sure-fire lottery pick staying in college, and definitely no examples within the last 12 months.

You mean other than Marcus Smart?

Please realize that we enter Jabari Delusion World voluntarily and confine your negativity (realism?) to other threads, thank you.

[Henderson]

I disagree. I think the "playing out of position" is absolutely the most plausible explanation. How many times this year did Coach K make references to not having a big man? How many times did Coach K talk about lacking a PG in 2009? Answer: a lot. Somebody has to defend the center spot. That's why we saw Jefferson, Hairston, and Parker take time at C this year (because we just didn't have a solid alternative, as Plumlee wasn't ready). And somebody has to run the offense. That's why we had Scheyer play PG (because we didn't have another capable PG on the roster).

The "wing" position is flexible in that all you need to be is a good shooter and somewhat athletic to be an adequate wing. That's why you will so often see PG splaying some wing as well. If you're a PG, presumably you're quick/athletic enough for the wing, and if you are a PG who can shoot then you can play as a small wing. That's what happened to Paulus (who wasn't quick enough to play PG but could shoot) and Cook (due to shaky PG play).

It's certainly possible to create a team based on 4 or 5 rigid categories. For example you could have Miles Plumlee, Sheldon Williams, Mike Dunleavy, J.J. Redick and Kyrie Irving on a team and have a 5-4-3-2-1 with clearly defined roles (just an example, not an ideal). It's a bit easier if you use only four categories. But even still, Duke under K has almost never had that kind of specialization luxury (or is it a curse?), meaning that nearly every year several players are either "playing out of position" a lot of the time or just playing versatile roles based on their individual strengths, weaknesses, and situational or game match ups. Bigs and non-bigs. Athletes. Players.

I think the nomenclature used even bears that out. People talk about 4-5's or 3-4's or 2-3s or 1-2's or the "stretch 4" or a "player who can play the 2, 3, or 4." And real life examples abound. The categories just don't hold up. Don't take my word for it. Two examples: K has repeatedly said he wanted Jabari Parker not to think of himself as having a specific position, not out of necessity, but because of versatility. Same thing with Singler. I don't think K was joking when he was asked what Singler's position was, and K said, "Winner." I just don't think K thinks in terms of 4 or 5 categories. I think he looks at every team, every player, and asks what their roles might be situationally. At the most, I'd say there are 3 categories for him, reflecting the old school breakdown: Center, Forward, Guard. And even then the lines get blurred in the modern Duke game.

So to tie this back to the thread, if Jabari comes back -- and I love luxuriating in that delusion -- the lines will continue to be blurred, and the breakdown of 4 or 5 specific positions will continue into 2. Maybe 3. Maybe none.

[NashvilleDevil]

Nope, it's a delusion. Sure there are and have been numerous reports out there since he came to Duke saying that he was seriously considering staying, but he's definitely going pro. There are no examples of a projected sure-fire lottery pick staying in college, and definitely no examples within the last 12 months.

Stop deluding yourself that he is leaving. That is not for this thread.

[Henderson]

Nope, it's a delusion. Sure there are and have been numerous reports out there since he came to Duke saying that he was seriously considering staying, but he's definitely going pro. There are no examples of a projected sure-fire lottery pick staying in college, and definitely no examples within the last 12 months.

Blake Griffin? Jared Sullinger? Worked out for Griffin, less so for Sullinger. But what's the difference between "no examples" and "definitely no examples"?

[NashvilleDevil]

Blake Griffin? Jared Sullinger? Worked out for Griffin, less so for Sullinger. But what's the difference between "no examples" and "definitely no examples"?

12 months

[Dev11]

12 months

Marcus Smart would be a good example, and he is probably the only one, as the 2014 draft has been viewed as a great top-heavy draft for the last 2 years, so lottery picks in 2013 were advised to leave at the time, to avoid going up against Parker, Randle, Wiggins, Gordon, etc. Smart is going to be drafted this year well below where he likely would have gone last year.

[gumbomoop]

Was Harrison Barnes a "projected sure-fire lottery pick"? How far had he fallen after his frosh season?

[InSpades]

Marcus Smart would be a good example, and he is probably the only one, as the 2014 draft has been viewed as a great top-heavy draft for the last 2 years, so lottery picks in 2013 were advised to leave at the time, to avoid going up against Parker, Randle, Wiggins, Gordon, etc. Smart is going to be drafted this year well below where he likely would have gone last year.

The 1st 2 mock drafts I pulled up had Smart going 4th and 6th. How is that "well below" anything? There's no guarantee he would have even gone higher than that last year. Maybe he would have... but certainly no guarantee. There were some stunningly bad picks in last year's draft but that just goes to show how unpredictable it is.

[NashvilleDevil]

Nope, it's a delusion. Sure there are and have been numerous reports out there since he came to Duke saying that he was seriously considering staying, but he's definitely going pro. There are no examples of a projected sure-fire lottery pick staying in college, and definitely no examples within the last 12 months.

There may not be but Jabari is going to be a lottery pick regardless of the draft he enters. I have said it a couple of times, next year's class does not project to be as deep as this one. If he goes he's a top 3 pick in a loaded draft. If he stays and improves off a consensus All-American year then he is probably going first.

[InSpades]

Blake Griffin? Jared Sullinger? Worked out for Griffin, less so for Sullinger. But what's the difference between "no examples" and "definitely no examples"?

"Definitely" implies more use of sarcasm :).

[gurufrisbee]

Whether Jabari returns or not, Cook only getting 20 minutes a game is a horrible thing for the team.

[johnb]

IFor example you could have Miles Plumlee, Shelden Williams, Mike Dunleavy, J.J. Redick and Kyrie Irving on a team and have a 5-4-3-2-1 with clearly defined roles (just an example, not an ideal)....

That might not be ideal, but it would come fairly close.

[Dev11]

The 1st 2 mock drafts I pulled up had Smart going 4th and 6th. How is that "well below" anything? There's no guarantee he would have even gone higher than that last year. Maybe he would have... but certainly no guarantee. There were some stunningly bad picks in last year's draft but that just goes to show how unpredictable it is.

I recall a lot of talk of him going #1 before they had the lottery. I don't think Cleveland was taking him #1 but still, it feels like a drop.

[InSpades]

I recall a lot of talk of him going #1 before they had the lottery. I don't think Cleveland was taking him #1 but still, it feels like a drop.

It's reasonable to think he would have gone 2nd to Orlando (reports were they were very high on him). So if he goes #4 (which is probably optimistic) it is a drop. But it's certainly not "well below" #2. I think he knew what he was signing up for when he came back. He wasn't oblivious to the reports on Parker and Wiggins.

[flyingdutchdevil]

...and there is world peace, no hunger, and a pony for every child, I believe the line-up will look like the following:

1: Tyus Jones
2: Rasheed Sulaimon
3: Matt Jones
4: Jabari Parker
5: Jahlil Okafor

Before you question my decisions, let me explain. For me, only the 5 is a certainty. I don't see any scenario, barring injury, in which Okafor doesn't start. Parker will start. And I believe he'll start at the 4 because his skillset is perfect for the 4: he can post up, take his man off the dribble, and has a decent jump shot. At the 3, Jabari doesn't have a reliable enough jumpshot. Also, if we have Amile Jefferson at the 4, that is three players from the 3-5 who are better in the paint then on the outside. And Coach K rarely, if ever, does that (Singler had a beautiful jumpshot. His outside game was 10x his inside game). Thus, it only makes sense that Jabari and Okafor are at the 4 and 5.

At the 1, it'll be Jones or Cook. Whoever has a) a better handle and b) better defense will get the nod. I don't think Coach K will start both as both are incredibly talented offensive players and not great defensively (at least what I've read about Tyus Jones). At the 2, I think it's Sulaimon. He is our best returning defensive player (not saying much) and second best returning offensive player (plus the best 3pt shooter).

And that leaves the last position. Given that we are stacked offensively at the 1, 2, 4, and 5, we need a defensive specialist. I went with Matt Jones because he has spent a year in the system and loves defense. He's a more talented Tyler Thornton with better height. If he can somehow find his jumpshot, that would be a pleasant surprise. This position could also go to Justise Winslow if he is better than Matt Jones at D.

Bottomline, with a rotation of 2 superstar freshman (unknown D but probably not great D), 1 senior with a great handle, reliable shot, and terrible D (Cook), 2 juniors who are decent at D but not great (Sulaimon and Jefferson), 1 man-child who hopefully improves on all fronts (Semi), and the most gifted offensive player in the country but has the reverse talent on D (Jabari), Winslow/Matt Jones will combine to play many, many minutes.

You think Coach K is going to have 2 inept defensive years in a row? He'll start at least one defensive-minded player.

[JasonEvans]

In a world where Jabari returns and there is world peace, no hunger, and a pony for every child...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qsk6MsNcURo... but sign me up!!

[Kedsy]

If he stays and improves off a consensus All-American year then he is probably going first.

Unless one of his teammates goes ahead of him.

[BluDvlsN1]

Unless one of his teammates goes ahead of him.

Well played, sir.

[yancem]

You mean other than Marcus Smart?

Please realize that we enter Jabari Delusion World voluntarily and confine your negativity (realism?) to other threads, thank you.

I'm guessing the use of the absolute "no" and the inclusion of "definitely no examples within the last 12 months" indicates a note of sarcasm. There are of course dozens of examples of "projected sure-fire lottery pick staying in college".

[yancem]

Whether Jabari returns or not, Cook only getting 20 minutes a game is a horrible thing for the team.

Can you expound on this thought? I'm not saying that Cook can't/won't average more than 20 minutes a game but I think that it is possible that Tyus Jones (a top 5 recruit) could come in and be a star at the point like Ennis last year or Irving did a few years back before his injury. Wouldn't that be a good thing for the team and probably limit Cook's playing time? It might not happen of course and Cook could work his but off this off season and have the type of season next year that many of us thought he would have this year but I think that there are at least a couple of possible scenarios where Cook not averaging 20 minutes a game is not only not horrible but quite possibly very good.

[Ichabod Drain]

Can you expound on this thought? I'm not saying that Cook can't/won't average more than 20 minutes a game but I think that it is possible that Tyus Jones (a top 5 recruit) could come in and be a star at the point like Ennis last year or Irving did a few years back before his injury. Wouldn't that be a good thing for the team and probably limit Cook's playing time? It might not happen of course and Cook could work his but off this off season and have the type of season next year that many of us thought he would have this year but I think that there are at least a couple of possible scenarios where Cook not averaging 20 minutes a game is not only not horrible but quite possibly very good.

Neither Kyrie or Ennis had a senior PG on their team who had started 60 games already. Not to mention Quinn will almost undoubtedly be a captain next year.

[yancem]

Neither Kyrie or Ennis had a senior PG on their team who had started 60 games already. Not to mention Quinn will almost undoubtedly be a captain next year.

Well, Kyrie had Nolan Smith on the team who had started 60 games and averaged 17ppg and 3apg the previous year and Seth Curry, a red shirt sophomore with a year of D1 experience and year practicing in the Duke system. Not exactly nobodies to beat out. Ennis may not have had anyone of note to beat out for a starting spot but that doesn't mean that he wouldn't have won the spot if there had been an incumbent. He had a very solid year against good competition. As for Cook being a captain, that didn't make Thornton or Hairston automatic starters. In fact it was Cook's poor play (from injury or other reason) that lead to Thornton finally getting the starting nod.

Also, I never said that Cook wouldn't start or play major minutes, I just questioned why it would be "horrible for the team" if he didn't. If Jones ends up as good as Ennis (which isn't a stretch) and Cook plays like he did the second half the year (tournament play withstanding because he seemed to get his game back on track the last few games) it might be bad for the team if does average more than 20 minutes. I'm not a Cook basher, I really thought that he was going to have a break out season this year and challenge as the top pg in the conference. Unfortunately that didn't happen. Personally, I'm hoping that Jones is as good as advertised and Cook lives up to his potential. If that happens, the offense should be even better next year than this year and with addition of a true center and a hard nosed sf in Winslow, hopefully the defense will be much improved as well.

[Ichabod Drain]

Well, Kyrie had Nolan Smith on the team who had started 60 games and averaged 17ppg and 3apg the previous year and Seth Curry, a red shirt sophomore with a year of D1 experience and year practicing in the Duke system. Not exactly nobodies to beat out. Ennis may not have had anyone of note to beat out for a starting spot but that doesn't mean that he wouldn't have won the spot if there had been an incumbent. He had a very solid year against good competition. As for Cook being a captain, that didn't make Thornton or Hairston automatic starters. In fact it was Cook's poor play (from injury or other reason) that lead to Thornton finally getting the starting nod.

Also, I never said that Cook wouldn't start or play major minutes, I just questioned why it would be "horrible for the team" if he didn't. If Jones ends up as good as Ennis (which isn't a stretch) and Cook plays like he did the second half the year (tournament play withstanding because he seemed to get his game back on track the last few games) it might be bad for the team if does average more than 20 minutes. I'm not a Cook basher, I really thought that he was going to have a break out season this year and challenge as the top pg in the conference. Unfortunately that didn't happen. Personally, I'm hoping that Jones is as good as advertised and Cook lives up to his potential. If that happens, the offense should be even better next year than this year and with addition of a true center and a hard nosed sf in Winslow, hopefully the defense will be much improved as well.

I never said anything in regards to your argument on Quinn playing more or less than 20 mpg being bad for the team. I was simply saying your comparisons of Kyrie and Ennis were pretty different than the situation for Duke and Cook next year.

You are correct that being captains didn't make Thornton and Hairston starters but they also only combined for roughly the same minutes as Cook by himself in their Junior seasons with less starts.

[Troublemaker]

Hmmm, if Jabari really did apply for housing, I think my Jabari delusion is at 40% now, gumbo. I think that's high enough for me to play in this sandbox you've created for us delusionists.

For competitive games:



30 Fr Tyus
20 Sr Quinn



30 Jr Sheed
...Fr Grayson

RS Matt


35 So Jabari
10 Fr Justise
RS Semi


35 Jr Amile
...FifthYrGrad




30 Fr Jahlil
10 Jr MP3





For blowouts:



30 Fr Tyus
15 Sr Quinn



30 Jr Sheed
5 Fr Grayson
RS Matt


30 So Jabari
15 Fr Justise
RS Semi


30 Jr Amile
5 FifthYrGrad



25 Fr Jahlil
15 Jr MP3





Redshirting Matt to give him another year to correct his shot.
Redshirting Semi to give him another year to adjust to this level of competition.

[Furniture]

Nope, it's a delusion. Sure there are and have been numerous reports out there since he came to Duke saying that he was seriously considering staying, but he's definitely going pro. There are no examples of a projected sure-fire lottery pick staying in college, and definitely no examples within the last 12 months.
Agree, agree, agree!
I have watched the JP threads the last few weeks and haven't commented. I can't take it anymore.
I didn't go to Duke and therefore am not as smart as many on this forum but my average intelligence mind tells me that there is no way that JP cannot go to the NBA. I love Duke and value education but it really would be a deluded decision for him to stay...

[eddiehaskell]

Well, if he stays, he will be a relatively care free kid for one whole year. If he leaves, he will enter the adult world and be treated as such the rest of his life.

[Furniture]

Well, if he stays, he will be a relatively care free kid for one whole year. If he leaves, he will enter the adult world and be treated as such the rest of his life.
You could be wrong. I think these kids take winning at Duke very seriously and there is a lot of pressure on them when they lose. They were really upset after the Mercer loss and they are probably still hurting.

[Duke95]

Well, if he stays, he will be a relatively care free kid for one whole year. If he leaves, he will enter the adult world and be treated as such the rest of his life.

And he'll be paid accordingly.

[eddiehaskell]

You could be wrong. I think these kids take winning at Duke very seriously and there is a lot of pressure on them when they lose. They were really upset after the Mercer loss and they are probably still hurting.That's true - much like high school, college basketball is about passion and heart (especially the tourney). I would still maintain that it's a relatively care free lifestyle compared to the pros. After games (only 35 or so) that come around on average every 4 days, a kid can seclude themselves from the outside world and live like a college kid.

[eddiehaskell]

And he'll be paid accordingly.Can't deny that, but once the adult world starts, there's no going back to being 19 and the big man on campus. Obviously, some players have decided college was fun enough to stay despite being certain 1st rounders.

[NashvilleDevil]

Agree, agree, agree!
I have watched the JP threads the last few weeks and haven't commented. I can't take it anymore.
I didn't go to Duke and therefore am not as smart as many on this forum but my average intelligence mind tells me that there is no way that JP cannot go to the NBA. I love Duke and value education but it really would be a deluded decision for him to stay...

To paraphrase Princess Bride I do not think deluded means what you think it means.

[JPtheGame]

He's staying. If people hadn't already decided that he was a one and done before the season started they wouldn't fall victim to confirmation bias now. He's not a kentucky kid, he's not austin rivers. He speaks of leaving a legacy. He went to the school where he had the worst campus visit. Think of this, in the SI article, it talks about K telling jabari not to sabotage his progress so that the draft talk would slow down. I believe the comment was something like "you can stay if you want, now there's no excuse to keep you from playing your best." If he's so obviously going to go, why would K feel compelled to have that talk with him? He's staying and Duke will win it all next year and then Oak and Jabari will go 1-2 in next years draft. Stop fighting it and stop hedging your bets. Accept that everything is going to be awesome and get ready for an amazing year.

[SoCalDukeFan]

Agree, agree, agree!
I have watched the JP threads the last few weeks and haven't commented. I can't take it anymore.
I didn't go to Duke and therefore am not as smart as many on this forum but my average intelligence mind tells me that there is no way that JP cannot go to the NBA. I love Duke and value education but it really would be a deluded decision for him to stay...

It just seems to me that if you like school, are improving in basketball, you family is not in great need of money then why go pro. Maybe if its all you can think about, bu the NBA is not going to go away. Some risk of injury and you get insurance. How much do you think Shabazz Muhammed enjoyed this year, 7 or 8 minutes per game.?

I am not looking at this with Duke colored glasses. Evidently Austin Rivers dreamed of playing in the NBA, so fine. William Avery did not like school, bye bye.

I think, no way of knowing, that Mason Plumlee is having a better year than if he left a few years ago and I predict his life will turn out just fine.

Parker is doing fine academically. He can certainly improve in basketball. His buddy is coming next year to play the middle. Evidently his family's finances are fine, his Dad has a foundation or something. Why leave?

SoCal

[SmartDevil]

I'm not very familiar with the Mormon faith. Under what circumstances is a year-long mission undertaken or not? And what constitutes a mission? Can other projects be carried out during that mission year?

(Point of my question is...Jabari and his family seem to be people of high character and faith.....could his mission year be carried out in Durham while also playing basketball ? Serving his faith--and playing college basketball in what looks like could be a uniquely exciting year--might outweigh hauling in the big bucks for a year for a person such as Jabari.)

[CDu]

I'm not very familiar with the Mormon faith. Under what circumstances is a year-long mission undertaken or not? And what constitutes a mission? Can other projects be carried out during that mission year?

(Point of my question is...Jabari and his family seem to be people of high character and faith.....could his mission year be carried out in Durham while also playing basketball ? Serving his faith--and playing college basketball in what looks like could be a uniquely exciting year--might outweigh hauling in the big bucks for a year for a person such as Jabari.)

Missions are for two years, not one. And while they are encouraged, they are not required. Parker is almost certainly not going to be doing one. One might argue that he will do more good for the church by playing basketball than by going on a mission.

And if he did do a mission, basketball would be out of the question. Missions put the kids in a very Spartan lifestyle and require a TON of time.

[gumbomoop]

I think my Jabari delusion is at 40% now.

Deluded. You need help.


He's staying.

Delusionally deluded. You are beyond help.

[eddiehaskell]

If Jabari's family was in poverty going back multiple generations, it would almost be his duty to go pro regardless of how much he loves college. With an insurance policy, what's the worst case scenario - he gets millions, peace in his faith, a degree from Duke and probably a guaranteed job on the bench one day? Greg Oden suffered a major injury and still made tons of money.

[HK Dukie]

Accept that everything is going to be awesome and get ready for an amazing year.

Did someone just watch the Lego movie?

http://youtu.be/StTqXEQ2l-Y

[JPtheGame]

Did someone just watch the Lego movie?

http://youtu.be/StTqXEQ2l-Y

Nope but I will be playing that song on a loop the day Jabari confirms what I already know!

[Troublemaker]

I think my Jabari delusion is at 40% now, gumbo. I think that's high enough for me to play in this sandbox you've created for us delusionists.



30 Fr Tyus
20 Sr Quinn



30 Jr Sheed
...Fr Grayson
RS Matt


35 So Jabari
10 Fr Justise
RS Semi


35 Jr Amile
...FifthYrGrad



30 Fr Jahlil
10 Jr MP3






Modified Jabari Delusion Rotation, in light of all three freshmen playing spectacularly at the Hoop Summit. I'm down with Justise at the 3 now, if Jabari returns:



30 Fr Tyus
15 Sr Quinn



30 Jr Sheed
8 So Matt
RS Grays.


30 Fr Justise
7 So Semi



30 So Jabari
12 Jr Amile



30 Fr Jahlil
8 Jr MP3
[RS Obi]




10-man rotation? Nah. Just lots of blowouts leading to lots of guys getting more minutes than they otherwise would. In this example, I'm redshirting Grayson instead of Matt. I figure someone is getting redshirted if Jabari comes back; just not sure which player.

[freshmanjs]

Modified Jabari Delusion Rotation, in light of all three freshmen playing spectacularly at the Hoop Summit. I'm down with Justise at the 3 now, if Jabari returns:



30 Fr Tyus
15 Sr Quinn



30 Jr Sheed
8 So Matt
RS Grays.


30 Fr Justise
7 So Semi



30 So Jabari
12 Jr Amile



30 Fr Jahlil
8 Jr MP3
[RS Obi]




10-man rotation? Nah. Just lots of blowouts leading to lots of guys getting more minutes than they otherwise would. In this example, I'm redshirting Grayson instead of Matt. I figure someone is getting redshirted if Jabari comes back; just not sure which player.

i would be very shocked (and disappointed) if senior cook and junior jefferson combined for only 27 minutes

[Troublemaker]

As would I. If Jabari returns, I'm hoping he would play both SF and PF, which would allow Amile to play more minutes.

[Kedsy]

As would I. If Jabari returns, I'm hoping he would play both SF and PF, which would allow Amile to play more minutes.

Yeah, taking blowouts out of the equation, it's hard to see Semi and Matt combining for 15 mpg while Quinn and Amile get just 27.

[jipops]

Nope but I will be playing that song on a loop the day Jabari confirms what I already know!

What is he having for breakfast tomorrow?

[Marc81]

I was just thinking about the lineup of Okafor, Amile, Jabari, and Winslow in the game at the same time. Don't know how it would work out in the game but that would have to be one of the best rebounding teams atleast on paper that I could think of in recent memory. Basketball season can't come soon enough!