Musings Of 2014-15 Starters & Rotation Players

[roywhite]

Kid has a soft jumper. That is hard to teach.


Best thing I see is that twice in this clip, he dribbled inside the 3-line for a pull-up jumper. Good handle, sudden stop, big elevation, smooth shot.

Yeah, I'm interested to see more of Grayson in action, even in all-star games.

Seems to me that he and Matt Jones will compete pretty directly for minutes next year. Matt has some good points, including some pretty good basics on defense, but we didn't see a soft touch or smooth jumper from him this last year.

[Furniture]

On top of the other recruits and the upper class men many people don't seem to think Grayson gets much PT. Really? Anyway K needs to think a bit more on how to get more out of a young team...

[Dukehky]

On top of the other recruits and the upper class men many people don't seem to think Grayson gets much PT. Really?

Yup. Just because you're a good athlete doesn't mean you play. Look at Semi. I think Grayson is far more likely to get run than Semi was last year though.

[Dukehky]

Reports out of McD's AA practice have stated that Grayson has been one of the more impressive guys on both ends this week. If his defense is serviceable and he can be a knock down shooter, which is kind of what we need next year, then as previously stated, it would be hard to keep him out of the line-up.

[Troublemaker]

On top of the other recruits and the upper class men many people don't seem to think Grayson gets much PT. Really? Anyway K needs to think a bit more on how to get more out of a young team...


Kid has moxie. Will be hard to keep him out of the lineup.


Reports out of McD's AA practice have stated that Grayson has been one of the more impressive guys on both ends this week. If his defense is serviceable and he can be a knock down shooter, which is kind of what we need next year, then as previously stated, it would be hard to keep him out of the line-up.


The Crazies might riot if he doesn't get on the court. K might want to keep that in mind when deciding playing time :).

I think Grayson, Matt, and Justise (and maybe Semi) are all in the mix to start at the 3. (I'm not one who believes Tyus-Quinn-Sheed will happen on the perimeter.) Might very well be Grayson who emerges as the winner there.

[COYS]

I think Grayson, Matt, and Justise (and maybe Semi) are all in the mix to start at the 3. (I'm not one who believes Tyus-Quinn-Sheed will happen on the perimeter.) Might very well be Grayson who emerges as the winner there.

History is certainly not on Grayson's side as to his winning a starting spot. Kedsy, I believe, did an in-depth analysis of the recruiting rankings of freshman who start a significant number of games their freshman years. Generally, those freshman are top 5 (Kyrie, Kyle,Austin, Jabari) OR they simply have no competition due to graduation/NBA attrition from the previous year's roster (Jon and Lance). One notable exception is Greg Paulus who beat out Dockery despite being "only" 13th in the RSCI. Rasheed also claimed a starting spot as a freshman despite not being top ten, beating out redshirt freshman Alex Murphy.

Grayson seems like a possibility to play at either wing spot, assuming we play with a point guard, two wing/shooting guards and two forwards in the starting lineup. There are, admittedly, a lot of minutes opening up there with Tyler and Andre definitely gone and Rodney almost certainly leaving. However, even in that situation, Grayson would likely need to leapfrog one of junior Rasheed or senior Quinn (assuming Tyus starts) and, in the process also beat out sophomore and top 30 recruit Matt, top 15 recruit Justise, and perhaps even sophomore Semi depending on whether or not they overlap at the 3 spot.

It's certainly possible, but to be frank, I hope that our returnees Semi, Rasheed, Matt, and Quinn improve enough to demand minutes. I also hope that Justise is the versatile defender/wing that we've lacked since Kyle graduated (even if Jabari was quite the offensive force at that spot). I also hope Grayson is every bit as good or better than advertised and sees court time, but I hope that our other guys improve so much that Grayson, even if he exceeds expectations, still needs only to fill a role off the bench. Unless he ends up looking like a lottery pick, I doubt he ends up leapfrogging everyone to start as a freshman.

[Kedsy]

his shot looks a lot like Mike Dunleavy kinda moves like him too....IMo it those 4 starting and pick one, Rasheed i guess...

I'll bet a fair amount that it doesn't happen that way.


On top of the other recruits and the upper class men many people don't seem to think Grayson gets much PT. Really?

Yes, really. It's a numbers game. Grayson plays wing, and will be behind Tyus, Rasheed, Quinn, Justise, and probably Matt. The sixth (or even fifth) perimeter guy doesn't get a lot of minutes at Duke (or most other places, frankly).


History is certainly not on Grayson's side as to his winning a starting spot. Kedsy, I believe, did an in-depth analysis of the recruiting rankings of freshman who start a significant number of games their freshman years. Generally, those freshman are top 5 (Kyrie, Kyle,Austin, Jabari) OR they simply have no competition due to graduation/NBA attrition from the previous year's roster (Jon and Lance). One notable exception is Greg Paulus who beat out Dockery despite being "only" 13th in the RSCI. Rasheed also claimed a starting spot as a freshman despite not being top ten, beating out redshirt freshman Alex Murphy.

Grayson seems like a possibility to play at either wing spot, assuming we play with a point guard, two wing/shooting guards and two forwards in the starting lineup. There are, admittedly, a lot of minutes opening up there with Tyler and Andre definitely gone and Rodney almost certainly leaving. However, even in that situation, Grayson would likely need to leapfrog one of junior Rasheed or senior Quinn (assuming Tyus starts) and, in the process also beat out sophomore and top 30 recruit Matt, top 15 recruit Justise, and perhaps even sophomore Semi depending on whether or not they overlap at the 3 spot.

It's certainly possible, but to be frank, I hope that our returnees Semi, Rasheed, Matt, and Quinn improve enough to demand minutes. I also hope that Justise is the versatile defender/wing that we've lacked since Kyle graduated (even if Jabari was quite the offensive force at that spot). I also hope Grayson is every bit as good or better than advertised and sees court time, but I hope that our other guys improve so much that Grayson, even if he exceeds expectations, still needs only to fill a role off the bench. Unless he ends up looking like a lottery pick, I doubt he ends up leapfrogging everyone to start as a freshman.

Yeah, I'm working on a new piece I plan to post after the final 2014 RSCI comes out in a couple months. The gist of it is you can predict with a decent amount of accuracy who will be in Duke's rotation based on a combination of recruiting ranking and how many years the player has been in the Duke system. Top 4 or 5 perimeter guys and top 3 bigs are in the rotation (very occasionally we go to a 4th big). Greg Paulus and Rasheed Sulaimon as freshmen (as well as Jon Scheyer, Gerald Henderson, and Lance Thomas as freshmen) were not top 10 but made the cut because there weren't enough people ahead of them. Grayson Allen isn't going to get that benefit, and unless he's really improved since last summer's RSCI, he's very unlikely to crack the top 4 or 5 perimeter guys, and thus probably won't play very much except early season and in blowouts.

[gumbomoop]

Grayson would likely need to leapfrog one of junior Rasheed or senior Quinn (assuming Tyus starts) and, in the process also beat out sophomore and top 30 recruit Matt, top 15 recruit Justise, and perhaps even sophomore Semi depending on whether or not they overlap at the 3 spot.

It's certainly possible, but to be frank, I hope that our returnees Semi, Rasheed, Matt, and Quinn improve enough to demand minutes. I also hope that Justise is the versatile defender/wing that we've lacked since Kyle graduated (even if Jabari was quite the offensive force at that spot). I also hope Grayson is every bit as good or better than advertised and sees court time, but I hope that our other guys improve so much that Grayson, even if he exceeds expectations, still needs only to fill a role off the bench. Unless he ends up looking like a lottery pick, I doubt he ends up leapfrogging everyone to start as a freshman.


Yes, really. It's a numbers game. Grayson plays wing, and will be behind Tyus, Rasheed, Quinn, Justise, and probably Matt. The sixth (or even fifth) perimeter guy doesn't get a lot of minutes at Duke (or most other places.

I'm confident that COYS and Kedsy are assuming no Parker, Hood, or Turner, as am I in my response. In the event that any of those 3 are at Duke next year, it's a different conversation. And this PT conversation will continue, in many different threads, over the summer. But just for now, it pops up because we were actually able to see Grayson display some of his talents, so he's the focus temporarily.

Fair to say, I think, that both COYS and Kedsy are sensibly tempering over-enthusiastic expectations re Grayson. I hope COYS will accept a friendly amendment, in that even among most Grayson enthusiasts, the central issue isn't whether he'll start, but whether he'll be in the rotation.

COYS says that Grayson, "if he exceeds expectations," might play "a role off the bench." To which Kedsy, generally agreeing with COYS's post, asserts that Greyson looks to be #6 perimeter player, and thus not likely in the rotation as season moves along.

I suspect that the consensus default preference on EK is against small ball for more than a few minutes. Therefore, after his not getting much talk on some threads, Justise has emerged over the last few days as a sort of consensus starter. So the consensus [not unanimous, just rough consensus] starters seem to be Tyus, Rasheed, Justise, Amile, Jahlil. Anti-consensus voices will understandably complain that 3 of those fellows have yet to play a college game. Proponents of our only senior, Quinn, will insist that we shouldn't write him off as a starter, but unless he were inserted into a starting-scenario for Rasheed, to start him at the 2 with Rasheed at the 3 is to start small-ball, so that's gotta be rethought.

Perhaps another anti-consensus voice will insist that Justise is no certain starter at wing/3; but penciling in Matt there is small-ball, and predicting Semi as wing/3 starter might be a hard sell this early.

So, I intuit a rough consensus, currently, for a starting-lineup-scenario that does include 3 untested, but undoubtedly talented, frosh, balanced by 2 experienced juniors. It has the further default halo-effect of looking like each putative starter actually, "logically," fits his position. That is, Tyus sure seems like a PG, Rasheed sure seems to be a wing/2 combo guard, Justise is a "classic" wing/SF, Amile is a PF - alas not a stretch 4, but next season not out of position as a 5. And Jahlil is a 5, period.

Back to Grayson, which leads to the rotation. No one expects that by mid-season K will play 10 guys. Many would be thrilled if he played 8 and 1/2, the 9th guy getting maybe 5 mpg. Surely there's a default consensus that if Quinn doesn't start, he'll get solid minutes. How about 15-25 mpg? Plenty of latitude there for snarky arguments the next 6 months. Surely we almost all think Marshall backs up Jahlil, maybe 12 mpg?

Eighth guy gets meaningful minutes, 9th guy might get a regular cameo, 10th guy gradually moves toward DNP. [K: "It's not personal. It 's the truth."] Cases can, and over the summer will, be made for Matt, Semi, and Grayson. M and S know the system, G doesn't. S is only one of those 3 who could possibly back up Amile. [But what if Justise, no weakling he either, spends some time at 4?]. S's handle the weakest of the 3. M's handle didn't look [to me] all that solid last season, a bit of a surprise, as he was said to have improved his handle to PG-level efficiency his senior year in HS. Not so. So, G seems to have best handle of the 3, along with very promising multiple-skills on O.

I will be surprised if these 3 talented players aren't fighting for the 8/9 spots. Semi's best chance seems as backup 4, especially if he is a bit of a stretch 4. Matt's best chance is an improved handle, improved shot, improved confidence. Grayson's best chance might be as an instant-O threat.

Or maybe Grayson's best chance is his confidence in his multi-O-game, neither of which [(1) multi: handle, vision, hops, shot, and (2) moxie ] he seems to lack. His stock, after all, does seem to have risen during his Sr year. One could protest, perhaps, that he was chosen for the McD game because of the Duke-effect. Or one might so have protested before tonight's display.

Four starters are near-certain [unless Amile isn't.....]. Justise isn't going to concede a possible starting spot to anyone. Marshall is going to play, or we're going to fire K. Quinn will have a significant role.

The other 3, and the fight for #8? Not sure, but I don't think Grayson is #10.

ETA: apologies to Troublemaker, who had posted just above COYS and Kedsy:


I think Grayson, Matt, and Justise (and maybe Semi) are all in the mix to start at the 3. (I'm not one who believes Tyus-Quinn-Sheed will happen on the perimeter.) Might very well be Grayson who emerges as the winner there.

Troublemaker, making even more trouble than I, seems willing to push Grayson ahead of Justise at the wing/3.

[CBecker]

I have no idea who they will start, but I think it's a good thing as this team certainly has a lot of ways they can go. They have a huge post player who looms as being dominant on the block, something they didn't have last year. Justise has great size and athleticism to play the 3, but I could also see them play the more experienced Rasheed and Matt Jones on the wing. I think Jones will have a good chance to get minutes this season, much more likely than Grayson. Not sure it'd be my choice, but it's certainly possible that K could try Tyus Jones and Quinn in the back court as well, even with Rasheed on the wing. But size wise, Tyus Jones, Rasheed, Justise, Amile and Jahlil sounds like a good lineup to me, but a more experienced lineup could easily be given first opportunity.
Not that it necessarily matters, lineups and rotations will probably change throughout the season. Although hopefully far less than this past season as there was just so much inconsistency.

[jv001]

I have no idea who they will start, but I think it's a good thing as this team certainly has a lot of ways they can go. They have a huge post player who looms as being dominant on the block, something they didn't have last year. Justise has great size and athleticism to play the 3, but I could also see them play the more experienced Rasheed and Matt Jones on the wing. I think Jones will have a good chance to get minutes this season, much more likely than Grayson. Not sure it'd be my choice, but it's certainly possible that K could try Tyus Jones and Quinn in the back court as well, even with Rasheed on the wing. But size wise, Tyus Jones, Rasheed, Justise, Amile and Jahlil sounds like a good lineup to me, but a more experienced lineup could easily be given first opportunity.
Not that it necessarily matters, lineups and rotations will probably change throughout the season. Although hopefully far less than this past season as there was just so much inconsistency.

I really like Matt Jones, but if his shooting doesn't improve he will be non existent in Duke's offense. He's a good defender but he is a terrible shooter. But Coach K values defense, so you might be correct and he'll get major minutes. I hope that Justise is very good both on offense and on defense and he's the starter at the SF position. We need defense that's for sure. GoDuke!

[Troublemaker]

Troublemaker, making even more trouble than I, seems willing to push Grayson

Haha, just a benign suggestion that Grayson might be more in the mix than we thought. (Although I certainly find the points COYS and Kedsy make to be very good and reasonable.)

One reason why Grayson might play ahead of Matt or Justise is shooting ability. Since we're going to pound the ball inside to Jahlil, and Amile is not a stretch 4, we will absolutely require good shooting from the 1, 2, and 3 spots, imo. So, if Matt hasn't fixed his shot by next season, and if scouting reports are correct about Justise not being a good shooter, Grayson might very well push ahead.

Also, let's take a look at Coach K's official statement when these four recruits signed (http://www.goduke.com/ViewArticle.dbml?ATCLID=209319094):


“We’re ecstatic about the four young men that are coming to Duke,” said Krzyzewski. “Grayson Allen committed to us very early. We believe he’s an explosive wing. Terrific offensive and defensive player. We consider Jahlil Okafor as good a big man as there is in the country, but not just a big man, we think he’s a great basketball player. He’s had an amazing amount of experience playing for the United States and for a great high school program. In Tyus Jones, I think we have the best point guard in the country. Someone who has won state championships, USA championships and is the consummate leader on the court. Justise Winslow is a great wing player. He is a guy that can guard every position and is an amazing rebounder and scorer. The great thing about all four of the kids is that they want to share a spotlight and they want to be on a great team. They’re team first guys, even though they have this excellent amount of individual talent.”

Coach K compliments the defensive ability of BOTH Justise and Grayson. It's not outside the realm of possibility that Grayson is a better defender than Justise or that he's close enough in defensive ability to Justise to allow Grayson's superior shooting to carry the day.


I
Four starters are near-certain [unless Amile isn't.....]

Ooh, I wouldn't lock up PG for Tyus just yet. It's funny. If Coach K hadn't done that press conference last week, I would've absolutely fielded all bets on who starts at PG, and I would've taken Quinn. Good thing for me Coach K had that presser! Still, I think Quinn is going to be in the mix there, too. I believe we have two positions up for grabs: the 1 and the 3, with only Sheed, Amile, and Jahlil as "near locks."

[wk2109]

I think Grayson, Matt, and Justise (and maybe Semi) are all in the mix to start at the 3. (I'm not one who believes Tyus-Quinn-Sheed will happen on the perimeter.) Might very well be Grayson who emerges as the winner there.


Ooh, I wouldn't lock up PG for Tyus just yet. It's funny. If Coach K hadn't done that press conference last week, I would've absolutely fielded all bets on who starts at PG, and I would've taken Quinn. Good thing for me Coach K had that presser! Still, I think Quinn is going to be in the mix there, too. I believe we have two positions up for grabs: the 1 and the 3, with only Sheed, Amile, and Jahlil as "near locks."

I think at this point the most likely scenario is that Tyus, Quinn and Rasheed will start on the perimeter. If K was willing to go with Quinn-Seth-Rasheed last season, a relatively small trio, I don't see why he wouldn't be willing to go with Quinn-Tyus-Rasheed. In my mind, those three will be the best (in terms of talent and experience) perimeter players on the team, and that's a good enough reason to believe they'll all be starting.

There are of course exceptions to the start-your-three-best-perimeter-players rule -- like whenever Tyler started for leadership/defense -- but I think the most likely scenario is that K will go with his three best perimeter players, who are probably Quinn, Tyus and Rasheed.

[roywhite]

I think at this point the most likely scenario is that Tyus, Quinn and Rasheed will start on the perimeter. If K was willing to go with Quinn-Seth-Rasheed last season, a relatively small trio, I don't see why he wouldn't be willing to go with Quinn-Tyus-Rasheed. In my mind, those three will be the best (in terms of talent and experience) perimeter players on the team, and that's a good enough reason to believe they'll all be starting.

There are of course exceptions to the start-your-three-best-perimeter-players rule -- like whenever Tyler started for leadership/defense -- but I think the most likely scenario is that K will go with his three best perimeter players, who are probably Quinn, Tyus and Rasheed.

Disagree. Not strong enough defensively, and the status quo in that regard won't cut it with Coach K in 2014-15.

Tyus and Rasheed will be the primary backcourt IMO, with Justise eventually getting the most minutes at SF (where Matt Jones and Grayson Allen will get some opportunities, too.)
Quinn's role? He'll play some, mostly coming off the bench as a shooting threat; just doesn't give us enough defense IMO.

[pfrduke]

I think at this point the most likely scenario is that Tyus, Quinn and Rasheed will start on the perimeter. If K was willing to go with Quinn-Seth-Rasheed last season, a relatively small trio, I don't see why he wouldn't be willing to go with Quinn-Tyus-Rasheed. In my mind, those three will be the best (in terms of talent and experience) perimeter players on the team, and that's a good enough reason to believe they'll all be starting.

There are of course exceptions to the start-your-three-best-perimeter-players rule -- like whenever Tyler started for leadership/defense -- but I think the most likely scenario is that K will go with his three best perimeter players, who are probably Quinn, Tyus and Rasheed.

Some of it is consideration of alternatives. Last season our bench was Thornton (who doesn't cure height issues), two power forwards (Hairston, Jefferson), a center (Plumlee 3), and a redshirt freshman who simply wasn't ready to contribute (Murphy).

Next season, the following people are available to play minutes at the 3 - Jones, Ojeleye, and Winslow. Obviously we haven't seen Winslow in college yet, and Ojeleye got limited action, but I'd say all three of those are likely better options at the 3 than Murphy was last season.

[wk2109]

Disagree. Not strong enough defensively, and the status quo in that regard won't cut it with Coach K in 2014-15.

Tyus and Rasheed will be the primary backcourt IMO, with Justise eventually getting the most minutes at SF (where Matt Jones and Grayson Allen will get some opportunities, too.)
Quinn's role? He'll play some, mostly coming off the bench as a shooting threat; just doesn't give us enough defense IMO.

I agree that defense would be the main reason Quinn-Tyus-Rasheed wouldn't work, but would starting 2 freshmen on the perimeter definitely be a better option? Seth wasn't known as a good defender because he wasn't laterally quick, but the 2012-2013 team was solid defensively (finished #31 on kenpom and probably would have finished higher had Ryan not gotten hurt). I think Seth's experience in the system helped him overcome his physicial deficiencies. I'd guess that Quinn's experience would make him more effective than a freshman option.

I would trust experienced talent over inexperienced talent given similar talent levels, which is why I think Quinn will start over any freshman.

[pfrduke]

Also, who starts is probably less of an issue than how often we play with 3-guard lineups. I absolutely think we'll play minutes with 3-guard lineups, but it's hard to imagine, particularly early in the season, that we'll play more than 10 or so of those minutes a game. If each of Cook, Sulaimon, and Jones average 30 mpg, they average 90 collectively which means only 10 minutes with of them as a third guard (if you think Grayson Allen is getting early season minutes on top of those 90, then there are some additional 3rd guard minutes). But that leaves the substantial majority of the game with somebody bigger in the 3 spot.

[wk2109]

Some of it is consideration of alternatives. Last season our bench was Thornton (who doesn't cure height issues), two power forwards (Hairston, Jefferson), a center (Plumlee 3), and a redshirt freshman who simply wasn't ready to contribute (Murphy).

Next season, the following people are available to play minutes at the 3 - Jones, Ojeleye, and Winslow. Obviously we haven't seen Winslow in college yet, and Ojeleye got limited action, but I'd say all three of those are likely better options at the 3 than Murphy was last season.

It depends on what you mean by "better" though. K has a more global perspective on a lineup than coaches who fit the best suited players into each position 1 through 5. Even if Murphy were more ready last year, Rasheed still would have started over him if Rasheed was the better player, despite Murphy physically fitting the mold of a 3 better than Rasheed. So what I mean to say is that I think "better" applies more to the combination of guys than to each individual guy fitting into a spot 1 through 5.

I've always felt that K's main rule of thumb is the play the best players, which is why he was ok with perimeter trios of Dockery-Duhon-Ewing or Thornton-Curry-Cook for several minutes at a time, despite there being a more prototypical 3 available like Melchionni or Murphy. There are obviously exceptions to the rule, but for the most part, talent trumps height/physical attributes.

[Gthoma2a]

I agree that defense would be the main reason Quinn-Tyus-Rasheed wouldn't work, but would starting 2 freshmen on the perimeter definitely be a better option? Seth wasn't known as a good defender because he wasn't laterally quick, but the 2012-2013 team was solid defensively (finished #31 on kenpom and probably would have finished higher had Ryan not gotten hurt). I think Seth's experience in the system helped him overcome his physicial deficiencies. I'd guess that Quinn's experience would make him more effective than a freshman option.

I would trust experienced talent over inexperienced talent given similar talent levels, which is why I think Quinn will start over any freshman.

Good grief. When is an older player with a lower ceiling a lesser option than a freshman with more ability/size? This isn't specific to Quinn, but just a question. How often do you have to see a player get beaten by his opposition before it becomes a good idea to start the new guy that has more physical tools?

I would also add that Rasheed's spot isn't so safe, if he is crazy enough to not work his butt off this off-season. It is nuts to me to hear of a guy with that kind of potential just giving up a Summer that could have been used to improve. Perhaps there was something going on, but it was just weird seeing a good part of a season go by with him just trying to get back into form, with no reason given other than not being in shape. He is too good for that.

[COYS]

I agree that defense would be the main reason Quinn-Tyus-Rasheed wouldn't work, but would starting 2 freshmen on the perimeter definitely be a better option? Seth wasn't known as a good defender because he wasn't laterally quick, but the 2012-2013 team was solid defensively (finished #31 on kenpom and probably would have finished higher had Ryan not gotten hurt). I think Seth's experience in the system helped him overcome his physicial deficiencies. I'd guess that Quinn's experience would make him more effective than a freshman option.

I would trust experienced talent over inexperienced talent given similar talent levels, which is why I think Quinn will start over any freshman.

I think this will be the primary debate going into next season. Do we play small but experienced with junior Rasheed and senior Quinn or do we play bigger and (theoretically) stronger defensively with Quinn coming off the bench and Justise/Matt joining Rasheed and Tyus (assuming Tyus really is going to start as apparently indicated by Coach K in the presser)? The more outside the box possibilities would be Semi or Matt grabbing time at the third perimeter/forward spot. Interestingly enough, it seems as if this has been the primary debate going into every season since 2010. We wondered if would be Kyrie, Nolan, and Seth or Kyrie, Nolan and Andre OR if we'd go Miles (or Ryan), Mason, Kyle, Nolan, and Kyrie. The next season, we wondered if we would go with three guards in Austin, Seth, and Andre or if a freshman Quinn or a sophomore Tyler would claim a starting spot. Then, last season, we had thought that Alex Murphy would get the start (in fact, he did in the first exhibition game), but then freshman Rasheed came out and claimed the third perimeter spot. This past season, we thought the lineup was pretty settled except for who would play center. That was up in the air a little bit, but what surprised us was the third perimeter spot next to Rodney and a point guard wasn't Rasheed's as we originally thought.

In all of the past seasons except for the 2012-2013 season, I'm not sure it was ever abundantly clear which lineup was actually our best, with this year being the most obvious example of the lineup situation staying in flux. A lot of that was due to injury in previous seasons. My hope is that whoever it is that emerges as the third perimeter player grabs the spot and owns it, leaving no question as to who should be playing the most minutes. I also hope that the other guys all are able to contribute off the bench. Granted, this doesn't have to happen right off the bat (Zoubek in 2010 staked his claim in mid February). And it doesn't mean that Coach K isn't capable of making dramatic changes at the last minute in the event of unforeseen circumstances (Boozer going down at the end of the ACC regular season in 2001). However, I do hope that roles are more clearly defined next year than they were at the end of this season.

[FerryFor50]

I would also add that Rasheed's spot isn't so safe, if he is crazy enough to not work his butt off this off-season. It is nuts to me to hear of a guy with that kind of potential just giving up a Summer that could have been used to improve. Perhaps there was something going on, but it was just weird seeing a good part of a season go by with him just trying to get back into form, with no reason given other than not being in shape. He is too good for that.

So where did you hear such things? Links?

[wk2109]

Good grief. When is an older player with a lower ceiling a lesser option than a freshman with more ability/size?

I take your question to mean "when does an older experienced player with a lower ceiling finally become a lesser option than a freshman with more ability/size in the eyes of fans?" My answer to that question, specifically on message boards, is right when the freshman commits to Duke during high school. Considering that we haven't seen any of these freshmen play on the college level, I think the realistic approach to take is that unless there's a huge gap in talent (eg when a Jabari/Kyrie/Jahlil type player comes along), experience will win out. I've certainly fallen into the trap of loving the high school commits and envisioning them becoming stars from day 1, but that happens so rarely that I have to force myself to remember that these guys are just in high school.

I don't think people give Quinn enough credit. He's been the starting point guard on an Elite Eight team that spent several months as the #1 team in the country, and he wasn't just along for the ride either. He was an integral part of that team as a sophomore and I think it's certainly reasonable to expect him to be a starter as a senior. Could there be another Greg Paulus episode? Sure, but I don't expect it.

[_Gary]

It's funny. If Coach K hadn't done that press conference last week, I would've absolutely fielded all bets on who starts at PG, and I would've taken Quinn. Good thing for me Coach K had that presser! Still, I think Quinn is going to be in the mix there, too. I believe we have two positions up for grabs: the 1 and the 3, with only Sheed, Amile, and Jahlil as "near locks."

Shoot. So I lost the chance to make some easy money then. :)

In all seriousness, I was on record as saying I thought Tyus had to be the primary PG for Duke next year. And the presser confirmed what I've felt for a while now - Coach K sees Quinn's biggest asset as being a shooter, not a distributor. I say Tyus starts from day one and never relinquishes that spot (unless it's - God forbid - because of an injury). He'll be our facilitator next year for sure. And mark my words, it will make all the difference in the world.

[Gthoma2a]

So where did you hear such things? Links?

It is from the interview after this game (I can't find it, but here is where it was mentioned, although I do remember that it came up after the doghouse comments). K said that, for the first time in the season he was in shape. That implied that he came in out of shape (and I never heard anything about any kind of injury that I recall; thus, I "put in the perhaps there was something going on").

http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/archive/index.php/t-32190.html

[Kedsy]

I really like Matt Jones, but if his shooting doesn't improve he will be non existent in Duke's offense. He's a good defender but he is a terrible shooter.

The fact that people touted Matt's shooting in high school is a bit of a puzzler considering his performance this past season, but don't despair yet. Shane Battier shot 4 for 24 from three-point range his freshman year (very similar to Matt's 3 for 21), and Shane shot over 41% his next three years. Quinn Cook was 14 for 56 from three-land his freshman year and at this point shooting looks to be one of his biggest skills.

The game has to slow down a bit for Matt. A lot of times that happens between freshman and sophomore years.


I think at this point the most likely scenario is that Tyus, Quinn and Rasheed will start on the perimeter.


Disagree. Not strong enough defensively, and the status quo in that regard won't cut it with Coach K in 2014-15.

I don't think the final answer to this question will be known until far into the season. As pfrduke detailed, whether we play smallball or not has been a big question on this board at least since 2010-11. Coach K has shown he is not averse to it, but he also seems to be fed up with poor defense, so I predict we'll see lots of different starting and playing combinations at the three perimeter spots, and that during the games we'll see both small (e.g., Tyus, Quinn, Rasheed), and not-so-small (e.g., Tyus/Quinn, Matt, Justise), with lots of combinations in between.

That said, once January 1 rolls around, while we still may not know who will be the primary three players on the wing, I suspect we'll know which four (five?) players will be taking pretty much all the meaningful minutes, and which three (two?) players will be taking pretty much all the "how-come-they-don't-play" thread space here on DBR.


I don't think people give Quinn enough credit. He's been the starting point guard on an Elite Eight team that spent several months as the #1 team in the country, and he wasn't just along for the ride either. He was an integral part of that team as a sophomore and I think it's certainly reasonable to expect him to be a starter as a senior. Could there be another Greg Paulus episode? Sure, but I don't expect it.

It's kind of funny that back in November/December, some people around here were suggesting Quinn might leave early for the NBA, and now the louder voices are saying he won't hardly play at all next season.

I completely agree with wk2109 that Quinn will play a major role. The fact that Quinn came off the bench for the last ten games of this season (and 13 of 15), however, has backed me off the certainty that he'll start next season. As I said above, I think we're going to see lots of combinations at the three perimeter spots. What I don't think is that Grayson will leapfrog over Quinn in the rotation.

The other thing to which people aren't giving enough credence is the amount that players improve over the off-season. For all we know, Quinn may come back in September so much improved that he'll be impossible to keep out of the starting lineup. Rasheed may come back as a guy that has a good chance to enter the draft after his junior year. Amile may come back as a potential All-ACC talent, and even more likely to improve by leaps-and-bounds are our less experienced players Marshall, Matt, and Semi.

Or that may not happen. It will be an interesting thing to keep an eye on.

[dukelifer]

The fact that people touted Matt's shooting in high school is a bit of a puzzler considering his performance this past season, but don't despair yet. Shane Battier shot 4 for 24 from three-point range his freshman year (very similar to Matt's 3 for 21), and Shane shot over 41% his next three years. Quinn Cook was 14 for 56 from three-land his freshman year and at this point shooting looks to be one of his biggest skills.

The game has to slow down a bit for Matt. A lot of times that happens between freshman and sophomore years.





I don't think the final answer to this question will be known until far into the season. As pfrduke detailed, whether we play smallball or not has been a big question on this board at least since 2010-11. Coach K has shown he is not averse to it, but he also seems to be fed up with poor defense, so I predict we'll see lots of different starting and playing combinations at the three perimeter spots, and that during the games we'll see both small (e.g., Tyus, Quinn, Rasheed), and not-so-small (e.g., Tyus/Quinn, Matt, Justise), with lots of combinations in between.

That said, once January 1 rolls around, while we still may not know who will be the primary three players on the wing, I suspect we'll know which four (five?) players will be taking pretty much all the meaningful minutes, and which three (two?) players will be taking pretty much all the "how-come-they-don't-play" thread space here on DBR.



It's kind of funny that back in November/December, some people around here were suggesting Quinn might leave early for the NBA, and now the louder voices are saying he won't hardly play at all next season.

I completely agree with wk2109 that Quinn will play a major role. The fact that Quinn came off the bench for the last ten games of this season (and 13 of 15), however, has backed me off the certainty that he'll start next season. As I said above, I think we're going to see lots of combinations at the three perimeter spots. What I don't think is that Grayson will leapfrog over Quinn in the rotation.

The other thing to which people aren't giving enough credence is the amount that players improve over the off-season. For all we know, Quinn may come back in September so much improved that he'll be impossible to keep out of the starting lineup. Rasheed may come back as a guy that has a good chance to enter the draft after his junior year. Amile may come back as a potential All-ACC talent, and even more likely to improve by leaps-and-bounds are our less experienced players Marshall, Matt, and Semi.

Or that may not happen. It will be an interesting thing to keep an eye on.

Yes- I find it hard to believe that a player who was widely considered to be the best shooter in the class somehow lost the ability to shoot. Once the game slows down- he should be fine.

This should give folks some confidence

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NUN7P_sn0_M

My hypothesis is that when kids get into a serious strength training program, their shot mechanics change and they lose the "muscle memory". If he shoots thousands of shots over the summer- the stroke will come back.

[Newton_14]

Pulling all of the off topic posts from the mickey D thread into this new thread. Hold tight for me to move them here.

[wk2109]

I don't think the final answer to this question will be known until far into the season. As pfrduke detailed, whether we play smallball or not has been a big question on this board at least since 2010-11. Coach K has shown he is not averse to it, but he also seems to be fed up with poor defense, so I predict we'll see lots of different starting and playing combinations at the three perimeter spots, and that during the games we'll see both small (e.g., Tyus, Quinn, Rasheed), and not-so-small (e.g., Tyus/Quinn, Matt, Justise), with lots of combinations in between.

I'm certainly not betting big that Quinn will be the 3rd perimeter starter (assuming Tyus and Rasheed start), but I think right now he's in the lead. He'll be the only senior, he has lots of starting experience, and he's just a good player (this board's criticism of his defense and shot selection notwithstanding).

One thing next year's team will have for the first time in a long time is a true 5 whom the team can build the offense around. If Jahlil can be a really dominant inside scorer, that could open up the possibility of a defensive-minded player like Matt or Justise grabbing that 3 spot. If either of them proves he can hit an open 3, that might tip the scale even more in favor of one of them starting.

[Researchc]

Coach K compliments the defensive ability of BOTH Justise and Grayson. It's not outside the realm of possibility that Grayson is a better defender than Justise or that he's close enough in defensive ability to Justise to allow Grayson's superior shooting to carry the day.



What is this "Defense" thing that you speak of? I heard something about this a couple of years ago, but it was certainly missing this year.

I cannot wait to have a team play hard nose defense again! That has been the biggest issue with having young teams the last couple of years. Hopefully that will be a major focus for us next year.

[tommy]

Reports out of McD's AA practice have stated that Grayson has been one of the more impressive guys on both ends this week. If his defense is serviceable and he can be a knock down shooter, which is kind of what we need next year, then as previously stated, it would be hard to keep him out of the line-up.

Unless you're a transcendent offensive talent, like a Parker or even a Tyus Jones, I don't think being a "serviceable" defensive player will -- or should -- cut it anymore on this team.

[Duvall]

Unless you're a transcendent offensive talent, like a Parker or even a Tyus Jones, I don't think being a "serviceable" defensive player will -- or should -- cut it anymore on this team.

How many better-than-serviceable defenders do you anticipate Duke having next year?

[gumbomoop]

As this thread is entitled "Musings," permit me to clarify my musing re Quinn on the K presser thread.

Plenty of story lines to keep us occupied for a few days/weeks, until we hear about Rodney's and Jabari's decisions. I think among the most compelling over the summer is Quinn's senior campaign. Not just "Will he start?" -- compelling enough -- but will he get major [25+] mpg, or will he see his PT somewhat reduced to the 15-20 mpg range, as backup to Tyus and Rasheed? And most of all, how will what Coach Wojciechowski called Quinn's "big personality" respond if his minutes go down, if, as I expect, he is not in his senior year "the PG at Duke"?

Is it presumptuous to think of Quinn as "fragile"? It does appear that Krzyzewski, beginning with the presser, sent an unmistakable signal that Tyus is right now in the lead as the starting PG. Does anyone doubt that such a signal was sent, knowingly, straightforwardly, matter-of-factly? For K, "It's not personal; it's the truth."

Now if, as next season progresses, Quinn plays some backup PG; and if at other times both he and Tyus are on the floor killing it together, each making nice passes and each setting up the other with the extra pass for a 3-bomb swish; and if when he's the PG the offense doesn't miss a beat at Tyus's absence; and if other good vibes ensue for Quinn and the team does very well and Quinn is very much part of the team's winning -- if several of these good vibes play out, then there's no reason to imagine anything other than Quinn's big personality showing its inspiring best.

But given more modest, somewhat uneven play by Quinn, what then? For starters, how will Quinn's spirit respond if he isn't the starter? What if Justise/Matt/Semi/Greyson offer so much, much more than Quinn on the D-perimeter that he plays 15 mpg, not 25? Becomes "instant offense" off the bench, but no longer a playmaker?

To be clear, I'm inclined solidly toward the rosier scenario; and I think we'll see some, though probably not lots, of perimeter small-ball that will include Quinn.

But I'm also inclined to pay attention to the compelling Quinn story line. Big upside and unsettling downside are both possible.

[CBecker]

I really like Matt Jones, but if his shooting doesn't improve he will be non existent in Duke's offense. He's a good defender but he is a terrible shooter. But Coach K values defense, so you might be correct and he'll get major minutes. I hope that Justise is very good both on offense and on defense and he's the starter at the SF position. We need defense that's for sure. GoDuke!

It really is interesting considering his reputation coming out of high school was that of a sharp shooter. He was terrible shooting it last season, although he was a freshman and got sporadic game time, but he was also even poor from the foul line as well. He has a weird looking shot, but that obviously doesn't mean much. I would expect him to do better next season, as the likes of Kedsy stated above. Hopefully the game slows down for him. You don't get such a big reputation for shooting for no reason!

[tommy]

How many better-than-serviceable defenders do you anticipate Duke having next year?

I don't know how many we will have. But there are quite a few who we could have, factoring in reasonable expectations for improvement, primarily with regard to Sulaimon. I think in the "could be" category we've got Okafor, Jefferson (playing the position he's suited for), Sulaimon, Winslow, Matt Jones (though others saw more in him defensively than I did this year), Plumlee, and Ojeleye. Not all of them will reach that level, but I think all seven have a reasonable shot of doing so. And I have to see more of Allen at the collegiate level.

[Matches]

It really is interesting considering his reputation coming out of high school was that of a sharp shooter. He was terrible shooting it last season, although he was a freshman and got sporadic game time, but he was also even poor from the foul line as well. He has a weird looking shot, but that obviously doesn't mean much. I would expect him to do better next season, as the likes of Kedsy stated above. Hopefully the game slows down for him. You don't get such a big reputation for shooting for no reason!

So much of shooting is tied up in timing and confidence. My take is that Matt's timing is off (because as Kedsy said, the game hasn't slowed down for him yet), and I think that once he started shooting poorly it affected his confidence (hence the FT problems).

He still has a TON of time to get all that straight, and I'm still very confident he will. If he continues to improve defensively as well, it's going to be pretty surprising to me if he's not a rotation guy next year.

[Saratoga2]

Expecting a person of his size to play more than 25 minutes as a freshman is probably being too optimistic. Between conditioning, mistakes and fouls he will probably play less then some seem to believe. Marshall is ready to play 15 minutes a game and do it fairly well. That will leave Amile to play 4, a more natural position for him. I assume he will add strength and already has some reasonable moves around the basket. He could certainly benefit from a mid range shot where he could help give zone defenses issues. Until we know what Jabari plans to do, even the bigs are not settled.

[johnb]

So much of shooting is tied up in timing and confidence. My take is that Matt's timing is off (because as Kedsy said, the game hasn't slowed down for him yet), and I think that once he started shooting poorly it affected his confidence (hence the FT problems).

...

Others know more about shot mechanics that do I, but I don't know of any good shooters with Matt's release and rotation. If so, it seems likely he'll either need to change his shot or focus on channeling his inner Billy King. Just watching highlight film of Allen makes me think he's a more reliable shooter, not to mention slasher/scorer.

And while we're all worried about last year's porous defense, next year's worries are likely to be on offense (we'll likely be losing our 2 primary scorers and our best pure shooter)....

[roywhite]

Others know more about shot mechanics that do I, but I don't know of any good shooters with Matt's release and rotation. If so, it seems likely he'll either need to change his shot or focus on channeling his inner Billy King. Just watching highlight film of Allen makes me think he's a more reliable shooter, not to mention slasher/scorer.

And while we're all worried about last year's porous defense, next year's worries are likely to be on offense (we'll likely be losing our 2 primary scorers and our best pure shooter)....

Well, we certainly lose some outside shooting and assuming Jabari is gone, that's a big offensive loss. But Okafor down low can be a real game changer. He can score and will cause significant adjustments for opposing defenses.

[jv001]

Well, we certainly lose some outside shooting and assuming Jabari is gone, that's a big offensive loss. But Okafor down low can be a real game changer. He can score and will cause significant adjustments for opposing defenses.

Agree 100% Okafor will be our first option(imho) on offense. That's why I see Tyus being the primary point guard with Quinn getting minutes at SG and back up point minutes. I think Quinn may be our best option on the kick out 3 shot. We'll need someone that can get the ball to Okafor and from what I've heard(K) Tyus is the real deal. GoDuke!

[Troublemaker]

Others know more about shot mechanics that do I, but I don't know of any good shooters with Matt's release and rotation. If so, it seems likely he'll either need to change his shot or focus on channeling his inner Billy King.

He needs to stick with his stroke and make it work at this level, imo. Changing sports mechanics in adults -- whether it be a basketball player's shooting stroke, golfer's swing, quarterback's throwing motion, batter's swing -- almost never seems to work out well. Matt's had a lot of success in his life with his current stroke, and I expect that he'll have success at Duke with that stroke eventually.

[CDu]

He needs to stick with his stroke and make it work at this level, imo. Changing sports mechanics in adults -- whether it be a basketball player's shooting stroke, golfer's swing, quarterback's throwing motion, batter's swing -- almost never seems to work out well. Matt's had a lot of success in his life with his current stroke, and I expect that he'll have success at Duke with that stroke eventually.

Agreed. I'd also note that I don't think Jones' struggles this season had anything to do with his form. I think it was a rhythm and/or confidence thing. When you play so sparingly and when you are surrounded by such talented players, it can sometimes be difficult to get comfortable on the floor. You start to press and overthink things, and that can affect your success.

Most of Jones' 3pt attempts were wide open. For a guy with the reputation as a shooter (and literally EVERYTHING I've read about the kid suggests he was a great shooter in high school), those should be gimmes. But more importantly, there's no reason that his shooting style should be why he missed those shots.

If that is the way Jones feels comfortable shooting, and if that is the form Jones used in high school, then that is the form he should stick with. As troublemaker said, it's very hard to relearn a shooting form later in life. It's better to stay with what you've been doing for close to a decade, as doing what feels natural is more likely to lead to positive results.

[dukejim1]

Where does Quinn stand academically? Could he graduate this summer? If so, we may be able to see how committed he is to fighting it out for floor time. Just thinking out loud.



As this thread is entitled "Musings," permit me to clarify my musing re Quinn on the K presser thread.

Plenty of story lines to keep us occupied for a few days/weeks, until we hear about Rodney's and Jabari's decisions. I think among the most compelling over the summer is Quinn's senior campaign. Not just "Will he start?" -- compelling enough -- but will he get major [25+] mpg, or will he see his PT somewhat reduced to the 15-20 mpg range, as backup to Tyus and Rasheed? And most of all, how will what Coach Wojciechowski called Quinn's "big personality" respond if his minutes go down, if, as I expect, he is not in his senior year "the PG at Duke"?

Is it presumptuous to think of Quinn as "fragile"? It does appear that Krzyzewski, beginning with the presser, sent an unmistakable signal that Tyus is right now in the lead as the starting PG. Does anyone doubt that such a signal was sent, knowingly, straightforwardly, matter-of-factly? For K, "It's not personal; it's the truth."

Now if, as next season progresses, Quinn plays some backup PG; and if at other times both he and Tyus are on the floor killing it together, each making nice passes and each setting up the other with the extra pass for a 3-bomb swish; and if when he's the PG the offense doesn't miss a beat at Tyus's absence; and if other good vibes ensue for Quinn and the team does very well and Quinn is very much part of the team's winning -- if several of these good vibes play out, then there's no reason to imagine anything other than Quinn's big personality showing its inspiring best.

But given more modest, somewhat uneven play by Quinn, what then? For starters, how will Quinn's spirit respond if he isn't the starter? What if Justise/Matt/Semi/Greyson offer so much, much more than Quinn on the D-perimeter that he plays 15 mpg, not 25? Becomes "instant offense" off the bench, but no longer a playmaker?

To be clear, I'm inclined solidly toward the rosier scenario; and I think we'll see some, though probably not lots, of perimeter small-ball that will include Quinn.

But I'm also inclined to pay attention to the compelling Quinn story line. Big upside and unsettling downside are both possible.

[gurufrisbee]

Question:

It seems as though we actually had a lot of success this year when we took advantage of our depth and truly went ten deep and basically rotated a new five in every four minutes. I'm thinking if you had a starting five of Cook, Sheed, Justise, Amile, Okafor and a second five of Jones, Jones, Allen, Semi, and MP (this of course, assumes Jabari and Rodney leave) you would always have a pretty rested and fresh group on the floor who could push the defensive pressure, crash the glass, and go all out. I know some people will hate the idea - why?

[rhynelander]

But I'm also inclined to pay attention to the compelling Quinn story line. Big upside and unsettling downside are both possible.

I think the Quinn storyline will be an interesting one as I think he is an incredibly important piece to next years team as a leader. Quinn seems to be a great leader when he's playing at a high level; so more than just PT he needs time with the ball in his hands. This morning I saw a post from Quinn's instagram showing he finished a workout at 6:05am today. There was some pound sign no days off tag too, so it looks like he's working hard this off season. I believe Duke will be at its best next year with Quinn and Tyus both having some shared sense of ownership of the team, which should work since neither comes off as "me first."

[wk2109]

I believe Duke will be at its best next year with Quinn and Tyus both having some shared sense of ownership of the team, which should work since neither comes off as "me first."

I agree. Maybe we'll get a glimpse of how Kyrie/Nolan would have worked out.

[Saratoga2]

I wonder if it was Wojo who suggested the line change idea this year?

[Kedsy]

I know some people will hate the idea - why?

It's not that people hate the idea as much as it is people (myself included) don't think there's any chance of this happening regularly if Coach K is our coach (which of course, he is).

Beyond that, even this season we never used the line change thing more than a few times per game. And the reason for this is at winning time you want your best players on the floor and using a platoon necessarily means that can't happen.

[johnb]

I think the Quinn storyline will be an interesting one as I think he is an incredibly important piece to next years team as a leader. Quinn seems to be a great leader when he's playing at a high level; so more than just PT he needs time with the ball in his hands. This morning I saw a post from Quinn's instagram showing he finished a workout at 6:05am today. There was some pound sign no days off tag too, so it looks like he's working hard this off season. I believe Duke will be at its best next year with Quinn and Tyus both having some shared sense of ownership of the team, which should work since neither comes off as "me first."

The update at 6:05 is terrific, if only that it shows that he is dedicated to getting better. Since he may excel playing alongside Tyus for at least chunks of games, he might blossom as did Dawkins, Nolan, and Jay Will when more pure PG's were recruited after them.. All of the returning players have to be a little concerned about their own PT given the influx of talent, but these are guys who chose Duke at least partly for the challenge. No reason to think they'll wilt...

[sagegrouse]

It's not that people hate the idea as much as it is people (myself included) don't think there's any chance of this happening regularly if Coach K is our coach (which of course, he is).

Beyond that, even this season we never used the line change thing more than a few times per game. And the reason for this is at winning time you want your best players on the floor and using a platoon necessarily means that can't happen.

Here is my understanding. K and the assistants painfully construct the defense and, to a lesser extent, the offense with given lineups of five players. It takes a lot of time, and doesn't work perfectly. Obviously, there are multiple lineups, because there are always substitutes, that have to go through the same process. With rotations of 7-8 players, there is a manageable number of lineups. With 9-10 players, then there are too many combinations, and many will not have the opportunity to practice together. K, therefore, tends to work with a 7-8 person rotation.

Well, if this is the case, why not two five-person teams that practice together and then substitute en masse during a game? It sounds great in theory but may not work in practice because the sixth or seventh-best players need more time on the court than the tenth-best player.

The five-man substitution pattern happened for 2-3 games. So did the move back in December to start Josh and Tyler in place of Amile and Quinn. IMHO (where the H is indubitably silent) both were a sign of desperation, kinda like manager Casey Stengel asking the woeful Mets, "Can't anyone here play this game?"

[gocanes0506]

If either Jabari or Hood come back and/or Turner comes here K should look at red shirting Semi. Also, if Grayson comes in and takes over Jones for the next backup Jones should be asked to redshirt as well.

The lineup without turner, Parker, or hood is still

T Jones
Quinn
Sul
M Jones
Grayson
Justise
Semi
Amile
Okafor
MP3

If any combo of the other 3 are on the roster next season M Jones and Semi quickly become the odd men out. Even with a 10 man rotation those 2 are looking at 5 mins in a close game and closer to 10 in a blowout. The red shirts would help with depth as they lose Quinn and then possibly sheed, okafor, and T Jones.

[pfrduke]

If either Jabari or Hood come back and/or Turner comes here K should look at red shirting Semi. Also, if Grayson comes in and takes over Jones for the next backup Jones should be asked to redshirt as well.

The lineup without turner, Parker, or hood is still

T Jones
Quinn
Sul
M Jones
Grayson
Justise
Semi
Amile
Okafor
MP3

If any combo of the other 3 are on the roster next season M Jones and Semi quickly become the odd men out. Even with a 10 man rotation those 2 are looking at 5 mins in a close game and closer to 10 in a blowout. The red shirts would help with depth as they lose Quinn and then possibly sheed, okafor, and T Jones.

Why redshirt Matt Jones over Grayson? Far more likely for the freshman to be the odd man out than someone who's been with the program for a year.

This is another case of shiny new thing-ism that tends to infect this board around this time of year.

[gocanes0506]

Why redshirt Matt Jones over Grayson? Far more likely for the freshman to be the odd man out than someone who's been with the program for a year.

This is another case of shiny new thing-ism that tends to infect this board around this time of year.

My qualifier for that is if Grayson comes in and takes his depth chart spot. If not then Grayson may be asked if hood comes back.

[kAzE]

So assuming Jabari goes pro, the rotation should somewhat resemble this:

G: T Jones
G: Sulaimon
F: Winslow
F: Jefferson
C: Okafor
6: Cook
7: Plumlee
8: Jones

That leaves Ojeleye and Allen as the 9th and 10th men in the rotation, which traditionally, don't get a ton of minutes for Coach K. Now if Jabari comes back, that leaves even less time for the bench players. Jabari probably replaces Jefferson in the starting 5, and we have 11 guys who could all be starting for most D1 programs. That would truly be an embarrassment of riches.

One thing I do worry about in the no-Jabari scenario is floor spacing. We would only have 2 proven shooters in the starting lineup, unless we go absurdly small, with Cook, Jones, and Sulaimon. Jefferson and Winslow aren't going to stretch defenses out of the paint, so we're going to need to get creative to allow Okafor the space to go one on one inside.

Of course, if Jabari comes back, we basically have 5 to 8 NBA players (2 or 3 potential All-Star level guys), combining to create one of the most dominant college offenses (on paper) of all time, and it almost doesn't matter what we do, that team would score at will. And unlike UK this year, I don't see Tyus Jones taking an entire year to develop into a good playmaker like the Harrisons. He's going to be one of the best PGs in the nation from the get go, and he will absolutely make our offense a lethal one. It's going to be fun year.

[Kedsy]

So assuming Jabari goes pro, the rotation should somewhat resemble this:

G: T Jones
G: Sulaimon
F: Winslow
F: Jefferson
C: Okafor
6: Cook
7: Plumlee
8: Jones

That leaves Ojeleye and Allen as the 9th and 10th men in the rotation, which traditionally, don't get a ton of minutes for Coach K.

With the above rotation, who are you expecting to play PF when Amile is off the floor? I think it very unlikely that Jahlil and Marshall will play much together, so either it's Justise at PF, with us going what you described as an "absurdly small," or it's Semi at PF, meaning he would have to be 8th in the rotation, rather than Matt.

Obviously if Jabari stays, the above wouldn't be a concern.

[tommy]

So assuming Jabari goes pro, the rotation should somewhat resemble this:

G: T Jones
G: Sulaimon
F: Winslow
F: Jefferson
C: Okafor
6: Cook
7: Plumlee
8: Jones

That leaves Ojeleye and Allen as the 9th and 10th men in the rotation, which traditionally, don't get a ton of minutes for Coach K. Now if Jabari comes back, that leaves even less time for the bench players. Jabari probably replaces Jefferson in the starting 5, and we have 11 guys who could all be starting for most D1 programs. That would truly be an embarrassment of riches.

One thing I do worry about in the no-Jabari scenario is floor spacing. We would only have 2 proven shooters in the starting lineup, unless we go absurdly small, with Cook, Jones, and Sulaimon. Jefferson and Winslow aren't going to stretch defenses out of the paint, so we're going to need to get creative to allow Okafor the space to go one on one inside.

Of course, if Jabari comes back, we basically have 5 to 8 NBA players (2 or 3 potential All-Star level guys), combining to create one of the most dominant college offenses (on paper) of all time, and it almost doesn't matter what we do, that team would score at will. And unlike UK this year, I don't see Tyus Jones taking an entire year to develop into a good playmaker like the Harrisons. He's going to be one of the best PGs in the nation from the get go, and he will absolutely make our offense a lethal one. It's going to be fun year.

While Justise is not a pure marksman from deep, folks should not be selling short his shooting ability. He is quite comfortable taking and making 15 to 17 foot jumpshots, which is a good thing because if he couldn't, and he plays a lot with Amile and Jahlil, we'd have three guys limited to the paint, which would not work well for our offense at all. Winslow is a way, way better shooter than a guy like Josh Hairston was, or that Amile is.

[NSDukeFan]

Why redshirt Matt Jones over Grayson? Far more likely for the freshman to be the odd man out than someone who's been with the program for a year.

This is another case of shiny new thing-ism that tends to infect this board around this time of year.

I am pretty sure that new thing-ism is not restricted to any particular time of the year.

[flyingdutchdevil]

So assuming Jabari goes pro, the rotation should somewhat resemble this:

G: T Jones
G: Sulaimon
F: Winslow
F: Jefferson
C: Okafor
6: Cook
7: Plumlee
8: Jones

Kaze - we're on the same page. My only disagreement is that Jones and not Winslow will start at the 3 next year. Also, I'm not too sure about Tyus over Cook, but I think we're on the same page that neither will start together.

Assuming Jabari doesn't come back, it seems very likely that Sulaimon, Jefferson, and Okafor will start. I find it hard to believe that anyone will supplant any of those three players.

At the 1, it's gonna be Cook or Tyus. I would go with Cook because he has a really good 3pt shot and understands the system. Bring Tyus off the bench as a Super 6th Man. At the 3, I'd go with Jones. His D is really good, and he WAS known as the best shooter in his class (not really sure what happened...). However, if Winslow starts, that means that his D is gonna be really good, and that's a great thing.

That leaves one of Cook/Tyus and one of Winslow/Jones to come off the bench along with Plumlee. I can see Ojeleye cracking the rotation, but let's face it: Coach K ain't playing 9 men next year. Yes, I know, it's happened before. But I'm willing to put plenty of money that 9 players do not average at least 7-8 minutes in ACC play.

[Kedsy]

Kaze - we're on the same page. My only disagreement is that Jones and not Winslow will start at the 3 next year. Also, I'm not too sure about Tyus over Cook, but I think we're on the same page that neither will start together.

Assuming Jabari doesn't come back, it seems very likely that Sulaimon, Jefferson, and Okafor will start. I find it hard to believe that anyone will supplant any of those three players.

At the 1, it's gonna be Cook or Tyus. I would go with Cook because he has a really good 3pt shot and understands the system. Bring Tyus off the bench as a Super 6th Man. At the 3, I'd go with Jones. His D is really good, and he WAS known as the best shooter in his class (not really sure what happened...). However, if Winslow starts, that means that his D is gonna be really good, and that's a great thing.

That leaves one of Cook/Tyus and one of Winslow/Jones to come off the bench along with Plumlee. I can see Ojeleye cracking the rotation, but let's face it: Coach K ain't playing 9 men next year. Yes, I know, it's happened before. But I'm willing to put plenty of money that 9 players do not average at least 7-8 minutes in ACC play.

I would ask you the same question I asked kAzE: who in your mind will play PF when Amile is on the bench? Presuming it's unlikely that Jahlil and Marshall will play at the same time very often, if Amile's not on the court that either leaves 6'6" Justise at PF (and also one of 6'4" Matt or 6'3" Rasheed at SF), which is a very small lineup, or it might mean Semi would be 8th man, pushing Matt (or one of the others) to 9th man.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I would ask you the same question I asked kAzE: who in your mind will play PF when Amile is on the bench? Presuming it's unlikely that Jahlil and Marshall will play at the same time very often, if Amile's not on the court that either leaves 6'6" Justise at PF (and also one of 6'4" Matt or 6'3" Rasheed at SF), which is a very small lineup, or it might mean Semi would be 8th man, pushing Matt (or one of the others) to 9th man.

I agree it's an issue, and our depth doesn't answer that question at all. Amile may have to be the Iron Man on this team, playing 32+ minutes a game.

Semi may indeed crack the rotation and, if he does, I see either Winslow or Jones being the odd man out. That's just the way it is with short rotations.

[Troublemaker]

Re: Semi, he IS the player on the projected roster that has the best combination of size + (perceived) shooting ability to play the 3. He is also the one guy who could conceivably backup Amile and provide a stretch 4 look at that position, which can come in handy in an offense based around getting the ball to your center for post-scoring.

Semi is still a mystery. As the 11th man, we didn't get to see him enough in games to really know what his weaknesses were. And Coach K didn't comment on him much during the season. One plausible theory that has been mentioned before is that the game was just too fast for him this year, considering his level of competition in high school. If that was the case, and if the game slows down for him in his sophomore year, I really could see a big jump in minutes for him.

Because, again, that combination of size + shooting ability could really serve to complete this team at the 3 and 4 positions.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Re: Semi, he IS the player on the projected roster that has the best combination of size + (perceived) shooting ability to play the 3. He is also the one guy who could conceivably backup Amile and provide a stretch 4 look at that position, which can come in handy in an offense based around getting the ball to your center for post-scoring.

Semi is still a mystery. As the 11th man, we didn't get to see him enough in games to really know what his weaknesses were. And Coach K didn't comment on him much during the season. One plausible theory that has been mentioned before is that the game was just too fast for him this year, considering his level of competition in high school. If that was the case, and if the game slows down for him in his sophomore year, I really could see a big jump in minutes for him.

Because, again, that combination of size + shooting ability could really serve to complete this team at the 3 and 4 positions.

While you may be right about Semi playing the 4, I'm not at all sold on the 3. Given our inept D last year, I really think that Coach K is going back to the D fundamentals this year. Even if we have talent on O, I really feel that Coach K will need to have some defensive players out there the whole time.

I would say that Sulaimon and Jefferson are competent defensively (with a slight edge to Sulaimon). They aren't stoppers by any means, but I think they can hold their own. I have no idea about Okafor. Yes, the dude is huge. But that doesn't mean he can play D (Jabari is a big dude too...). Tyus or Cook aren't known for defense, and from what I've read about Tyus, he isn't a good defender (McAA practices commentary via NBAdraft.net). Thus, with 4 players (Tyus/Cook, Sulaimon, Jefferson, Okafor) who aren't defensive talents and are more offensively gifted and oriented, I really think that the vast majority of the 3 minutes are going to a defensive stopper like M. Jones and Winslow.

[kAzE]

With the above rotation, who are you expecting to play PF when Amile is off the floor? I think it very unlikely that Jahlil and Marshall will play much together, so either it's Justise at PF, with us going what you described as an "absurdly small," or it's Semi at PF, meaning he would have to be 8th in the rotation, rather than Matt.

Obviously if Jabari stays, the above wouldn't be a concern.

That's a really good point, but after thinking about it some, I don't think it would be absolutely crazy to play both Okafor and Plumlee at the same time. Okafor has a 10-15 foot jumper, and also good driving ability from the high post or baseline, so he could slide over to power forward in this scenario. I think he's more versatile than you are giving him credit for. He's a really talented kid, with a ton of skill.

Many of Coach K's 8 man rotations in the past only had 3 bigs, so I don't think it's too much of a stretch. Also, we used to play both Mason and Miles together for long stretches, and I would consider them both to be true centers at the NBA level. However, I don't think we'll see Okafor and Plumlee both on the floor together for long stretches of time because I believe Amile Jefferson will play as many minutes as he can handle.

[gumbomoop]

.... I believe Amile Jefferson will play as many minutes as he can handle.

Amile committed some lazy, foolish fouls this season. I know he was shocked at some of the calls, but in at least some cases the calls were spot on. He put himself on the bench for too many minutes. Maybe he'll play smarter next season; but if not, I'm skeptical he'll get 30 mpg, as sometimes he'll be on the bench too early in the first half.

To put all cards on the table, I'm skeptical he'll get 30+ mpg, period, under any circumstance save multiple injuries.

[Kedsy]

That's a really good point, but after thinking about it some, I don't think it would be absolutely crazy to play both Okafor and Plumlee at the same time. Okafor has a 10-15 foot jumper, and also good driving ability from the high post or baseline, so he could slide over to power forward in this scenario. I think he's more versatile than you are giving him credit for. He's a really talented kid, with a ton of skill.

Many of Coach K's 8 man rotations in the past only had 3 bigs, so I don't think it's too much of a stretch. Also, we used to play both Mason and Miles together for long stretches, and I would consider them both to be true centers at the NBA level. However, I don't think we'll see Okafor and Plumlee both on the floor together for long stretches of time because I believe Amile Jefferson will play as many minutes as he can handle.

In the past, when we've had just three bigs in the rotation (frankly that's most years), we had at least one guy who could play C, at least one guy who could play PF, and at least one guy who could play both positions. Obviously we'll have to see, but at the moment I think we're looking at a C, a C, and a PF/C, which means we need a backup PF. I'm fairly confident Marshall isn't going to play the 4, so the question remains whether Jahlil can defend opposing power forwards (and also provide enough spacing for the offense to run). If he can, then you're right. If not, then I think Semi is our 8th man (assuming Jabari and Rodney both go pro).

Also, Jahlil may have a 10 to 15 footer and good driving ability in high school, but it remains to be seen whether he has that shot or that ability in college. Totally different world.

[COYS]

Amile committed some lazy, foolish fouls this season. I know he was shocked at some of the calls, but in at least some cases the calls were spot on. He put himself on the bench for too many minutes. Maybe he'll play smarter next season; but if not, I'm skeptical he'll get 30 mpg, as sometimes he'll be on the bench too early in the first half.

To put all cards on the table, I'm skeptical he'll get 30+ mpg, period, under any circumstance save multiple injuries.

Amile's season, much like the rest of the team, featured some peaks and valleys. However, on the defensive side of things, I thought Amile had just about the highest and longest lasting peak of any of our players. He played excellent defense for a long streak after the Clemson loss. He was fast to rotate, hedged well, and did well on switches. He did seem to tire and foul, but then again, so did our whole team. Of course, he was also guarding "up" a position, which definitely lends itself to more fouls and fatigue. I think he will benefit a LOT from Okafor and Marshall being around to handle a lot of the big bodies. Amile's long arms and quickness compared to many opposing 4's will be a real bonus on D. Plus, I think we'll continue to see natural improvement from him now that he's got two seasons of experience. To be quite honest, I would be surprised if Amile is not a plus defender relative to the rest of the team next year. I look for him to become a little bit like the versatile defender Lance was on the 2010 team, only with better rebounding numbers and scoring ability.

As a quick side note, after the 2007 season, Duke's worst since the mid-90's and the worst Duke offense that I can remember, Coach K completely revamped the offense and a team that featured many of the same players from the previous year (Josh McRoberts and Dave McClure left, Singler, Nolan, and Taylor King came in) became a top 10 KenPom offense, again. It was hard to envision such a strong offensive team when just the year before the team had struggled so badly. Next year, I look for our defense to make a similar leap. I don't necessarily expect it to be all the way into the top 10, but I will be utterly shocked if we don't see a VAST improvement from our team defense next year that makes us forget this season's defensive struggles really quickly.

[CDu]

In the past, when we've had just three bigs in the rotation (frankly that's most years), we had at least one guy who could play C, at least one guy who could play PF, and at least one guy who could play both positions. Obviously we'll have to see, but at the moment I think we're looking at a C, a C, and a PF/C, which means we need a backup PF. I'm fairly confident Marshall isn't going to play the 4, so the question remains whether Jahlil can defend opposing power forwards (and also provide enough spacing for the offense to run). If he can, then you're right. If not, then I think Semi is our 8th man (assuming Jabari and Rodney both go pro).

Also, Jahlil may have a 10 to 15 footer and good driving ability in high school, but it remains to be seen whether he has that shot or that ability in college. Totally different world.

Defensively, I'd say we have a C, a C, and a PF. Offensively, I would say we have two Cs and a limited-range PF. I agree though that the need is another PF, and preferaly one who can actually stretch the defense. I don't see a pairing of Okafor and Plumlee working nearly as well as a Plumlee/Plumlee pairing. Okafor is a bit lumbering, and Plumlee isn't suited to chase smaller PF around the court.

Basically, while Okafor's arrival is good for Duke, I don't think it is great for Plumlee's opportunities next season. Whereas this year the team makeup was such that he could play as many minutes as he could handle (he pairs adequately with Jefferson and very nicely with Parker), next year he'll be limited to whatever minutes Okafor can't handle... And that is at best; there is always the chance that Coach K goes fairly small with Jefferson and Ojeleye at C and PF when Okafor is out.

[kAzE]

Defensively, I'd say we have a C, a C, and a PF. Offensively, I would say we have two Cs and a limited-range PF. I agree though that the need is another PF, and preferaly one who can actually stretch the defense. I don't see a pairing of Okafor and Plumlee working nearly as well as a Plumlee/Plumlee pairing. Okafor is a bit lumbering, and Plumlee isn't suited to chase smaller PF around the court.

Basically, while Okafor's arrival is good for Duke, I don't think it is great for Plumlee's opportunities next season. Whereas this year the team makeup was such that he could play as many minutes as he could handle (he pairs adequately with Jefferson and very nicely with Parker), next year he'll be limited to whatever minutes Okafor can't handle... And that is at best; there is always the chance that Coach K goes fairly small with Jefferson and Ojeleye at C and PF when Okafor is out.

That seems unlikely to me, given that Plumlee showed some real promise towards the end of the year, and that he is the logical back up at C, but if it is true that Okafor and Plumlee can't play together defensively, I guess we'd have no other choice but to have Ojeleye play spot minutes PF.

Still, I'm not as skeptical about pairing both centers together. It can't be all that bad, especially when you have a guy like Winslow who can guard pretty much 4 positions, and cover up mistakes on defense (at least I hope that's what he is). We'd certainly have a massive advantage in the paint with 2 centers on the floor. It would be at least extremely difficult to for opponents to find space to get to the rim. The only time that it would really hurt us is if the other team had a Ryan Kelly type stretch 4 who could really force us to guard him on the perimeter.

Of course, Jabari coming back solves everything. I support Jabari no matter what he does, but, boy, he'd be the perfect piece to fit into next year's puzzle for sure. What a lineup that would be. Jabari/Okafor/Jefferson/Winslow/Plumlee would be the best front court by a mile in the nation.

[Kedsy]

Defensively, I'd say we have a C, a C, and a PF. Offensively, I would say we have two Cs and a limited-range PF. I agree though that the need is another PF, and preferaly one who can actually stretch the defense. I don't see a pairing of Okafor and Plumlee working nearly as well as a Plumlee/Plumlee pairing. Okafor is a bit lumbering, and Plumlee isn't suited to chase smaller PF around the court.

Basically, while Okafor's arrival is good for Duke, I don't think it is great for Plumlee's opportunities next season. Whereas this year the team makeup was such that he could play as many minutes as he could handle (he pairs adequately with Jefferson and very nicely with Parker), next year he'll be limited to whatever minutes Okafor can't handle... And that is at best; there is always the chance that Coach K goes fairly small with Jefferson and Ojeleye at C and PF when Okafor is out.

I agree that Marshall will have to earn his 10 to 15 minutes a game. I suspect it'll be closer to 15, because freshman centers at Duke tend not to play so many minutes, even luminaries like Brand (23.5, although he also had an injury to deal with); Boozer (23.7); S Williams (19.2); Laettner (16.9); Mason Plumlee (14.1); Parks (12.8); Bilas (23.0); and so on, so I'd be surprised if Jahlil Okafor played more than 25 mpg.

[gumbomoop]

Amile's season, much like the rest of the team, featured some peaks and valleys. However, on the defensive side of things, I thought Amile had just about the highest and longest lasting peak of any of our players. He played excellent defense for a long streak after the Clemson loss. He was fast to rotate, hedged well, and did well on switches. He did seem to tire and foul, but then again, so did our whole team. Of course, he was also guarding "up" a position, which definitely lends itself to more fouls and fatigue. I think he will benefit a LOT from Okafor and Marshall being around to handle a lot of the big bodies. Amile's long arms and quickness compared to many opposing 4's will be a real bonus on D. Plus, I think we'll continue to see natural improvement from him now that he's got two seasons of experience. To be quite honest, I would be surprised if Amile is not a plus defender relative to the rest of the team next year. I look for him to become a little bit like the versatile defender Lance was on the 2010 team, only with better rebounding numbers and scoring ability.


Yes, good points. My comment about Amile's sometimes-penchant for the lazy foul was in response to kAzE's suggestion that Amile would get "as many minutes as he can handle" and to flyingdutchdevil's thought that Amile might get an Iron Man's "32+ mpg." My response was perhaps too narrow, focusing on what I do see as a problem, without giving him credit for likely smarter play next season. I was so very impressed with how smart Amile seemed to play when I saw him on TV as a HS senior, that I probably over-reacted this season with too much irritation at his sometimes-not-smart fouling.

I've no doubt Amile will play lots, as he's the only certain 4 on the team (always keeping in mind that the default assumption in this thread is, no Jabari). That he's no stretch-4, however, will as much as the occasional lazy foul probably keep him under 30 mpg. I can see several quite different scenarios for the 10-15 non-Amile mpg: (1) Semi comes on strong, and he is potentially a stretch-4; (2) Justise plays some at the 4 as well as at the wing/3; this scenario, of course, means some small-ball, as the wing/3 who plays at same time as Justise is playing the 4 will be shorter than Justise; (3) a few minutes each half of Twin Towers/high-low post with Jahlil and Marshall. Did we see some of this with Miles and Mason in 2011-12?

Unless Amile does in fact become an Iron Man, so steely that he plays the highest mpg on the team (!!), one or more of the above 3 scenarios seems certain. Maybe some of each pre-ACC.

[tommy]

If I was part of the staff, I would have Amile Jefferson shooting about 1000 jump shots a day from between 10 and 15 feet away from the basket. Half of them from the free throw line area. Do that, and spend the rest of his time in the weight room. If he's going to play major minutes alongside a low post presence like Jahlil, and he is, he's simply got to be able to hit a midrange jumper. I think that's a key, key point of development for this team offensively.

I know it doesn't look like we're going to have any other choices barring a surprise commitment from Miles Turner, but I'm concerned about Semi playing PF for any kind of extended minutes. Besides the fact that he was not ready to play this past year, so nobody really has any clear idea of how good he is, he's only 6'6". And while he jumps well, still, that's pretty short for a PF. Winslow, the same. Having a 6'6" PF along with, at times, third guards (Matt Jones or Rasheed) playing the SF position, is concerning. Not fatal, especially given the defensive potential of some of those lineup combinations, but still, feels pretty short to me.

[kAzE]

If I was part of the staff, I would have Amile Jefferson shooting about 1000 jump shots a day from between 10 and 15 feet away from the basket. Half of them from the free throw line area. Do that, and spend the rest of his time in the weight room. If he's going to play major minutes alongside a low post presence like Jahlil, and he is, he's simply got to be able to hit a midrange jumper. I think that's a key, key point of development for this team offensively.

This is totally my train of thought as well. The form on his shot looks good, it just doesn't go in consistently. If he could develop Lance Thomas' free throw line jumper, it would totally change everything.

[Troublemaker]

If I was part of the staff, I would have Amile Jefferson shooting about 1000 jump shots a day from between 10 and 15 feet away from the basket. Half of them from the free throw line area. Do that, and spend the rest of his time in the weight room. If he's going to play major minutes alongside a low post presence like Jahlil, and he is, he's simply got to be able to hit a midrange jumper. I think that's a key, key point of development for this team offensively.

I don't want to provide false hope on this front, but has anyone ever seen the following video: http://youtu.be/m223V2uRuEU?t=33s

It's Amile (and fellow D-1 player Dave Appolon from Robert Morris) working with a Philly-area trainer last summer on perimeter skills.

Improving his perimeter game has obviously been on Amile's mind for awhile now (I'm sure with much encouragement and help from the Duke staff as well). I mean, if he has any NBA aspirations whatsoever at his size, he's going to have to be able to hit a perimeter shot.

Anyway, Amile looks not-too-bad shooting the ball in this video. He's also shooting against air, not against a defender. That's where the false hope comes in. But he looks okay.

[dyedwab]

Amile committed some lazy, foolish fouls this season. I know he was shocked at some of the calls, but in at least some cases the calls were spot on. He put himself on the bench for too many minutes. Maybe he'll play smarter next season; but if not, I'm skeptical he'll get 30 mpg, as sometimes he'll be on the bench too early in the first half.

To put all cards on the table, I'm skeptical he'll get 30+ mpg, period, under any circumstance save multiple injuries.


re: Fouls. Playing good defense without fouling is, to me, the most important thing Amile can work on in the off-season. And it is not a hopeless cause. Shelden Williams average 6.5 fouls/40m in his freshman year, and 4.98 fouls/40min his sophomore year, but dropped that to 3.4 fouls/40 minutes in his junior year.

So it can happen

[gumbomoop]

re: Fouls. Playing good defense without fouling is, to me, the most important thing Amile can work on in the off-season. And it is not a hopeless cause. Shelden Williams average 6.5 fouls/40m in his freshman year, and 4.98 fouls/40min his sophomore year, but dropped that to 3.4 fouls/40 minutes in his junior year.

So it can happen

It looks like Amile averaged 4.68/40 this season, so getting that down to 3.5-4/40 would be good, and he can do that probably by eliminating most of the silly ones. He's obviously not the only player in the country to commit such useless fouls, but it really hurts when he does this a couple of times within a few minutes in the first half or early second. In close games -- which should always be the default assumption -- every play counts; and dumb plays are just dumb.

[roywhite]

If I was part of the staff, I would have Amile Jefferson shooting about 1000 jump shots a day from between 10 and 15 feet away from the basket. Half of them from the free throw line area. Do that, and spend the rest of his time in the weight room. If he's going to play major minutes alongside a low post presence like Jahlil, and he is, he's simply got to be able to hit a midrange jumper. I think that's a key, key point of development for this team offensively.

I know it doesn't look like we're going to have any other choices barring a surprise commitment from Miles Turner, but I'm concerned about Semi playing PF for any kind of extended minutes. Besides the fact that he was not ready to play this past year, so nobody really has any clear idea of how good he is, he's only 6'6". And while he jumps well, still, that's pretty short for a PF. Winslow, the same. Having a 6'6" PF along with, at times, third guards (Matt Jones or Rasheed) playing the SF position, is concerning. Not fatal, especially given the defensive potential of some of those lineup combinations, but still, feels pretty short to me.


I don't want to provide false hope on this front, but has anyone ever seen the following video: http://youtu.be/m223V2uRuEU?t=33s

It's Amile (and fellow D-1 player Dave Appolon from Robert Morris) working with a Philly-area trainer last summer on perimeter skills.

Improving his perimeter game has obviously been on Amile's mind for awhile now (I'm sure with much encouragement and help from the Duke staff as well). I mean, if he has any NBA aspirations whatsoever at his size, he's going to have to be able to hit a perimeter shot.

Anyway, Amile looks not-too-bad shooting the ball in this video. He's also shooting against air, not against a defender. That's where the false hope comes in. But he looks okay.


It looks like Amile averaged 4.68/40 this season, so getting that down to 3.5-4/40 would be good, and he can do that probably by eliminating most of the silly ones. He's obviously not the only player in the country to commit such useless fouls, but it really hurts when he does this a couple of times within a few minutes in the first half or early second. In close games -- which should always be the default assumption -- every play counts; and dumb plays are just dumb.

Agree that Amile is a key player for next year. Improved shooting ability would be wonderful

A couple other points:
Amile seemed fairly competent and confident in the ball handling he did last year (most of which was a few dribbles and a hand off, but he rarely made mistakes in that area); passing to Okafor down low or shooters on the perimeter will be an important skill for Amile and he has the capability to do it

His leadership will be important -- seems well liked by his teammates and capable of doing more on the court talking and directing

[SoCalDukeFan]

Writes about this season and next. Link (http://www.newsobserver.com/2014/04/09/3769211/2013-14-college-basketball-in.html?sp=/99/103/119/269/)

Next year the 3 main guards should be T. Jones, Rasheed, and Quinn. I think this year Rasheed at the start and Quinn most of the season had problems with their roles. To me the most important thing will be for them to be with the program all year at a high level. Oak should improve the interior defense which should help as well. I think the rest will take care of itself.

SoCal

[tommy]

Writes about this season and next. Link (http://www.newsobserver.com/2014/04/09/3769211/2013-14-college-basketball-in.html?sp=/99/103/119/269/)

Next year the 3 main guards should be T. Jones, Rasheed, and Quinn. I think this year Rasheed at the start and Quinn most of the season had problems with their roles. To me the most important thing will be for them to be with the program all year at a high level. Oak should improve the interior defense which should help as well. I think the rest will take care of itself.

SoCal

Just as an FYI, cuz I think I've seen either you or another poster or two refer to him this way, nobody calls Jahlil Okafor "Oak." It's not his nickname. Of course you're free to call him whatever you want, but again, just an FYI - that's not what he goes by.

[SoCalDukeFan]

I am spelling challenged.

[kAzE]

Just as an FYI, cuz I think I've seen either you or another poster or two refer to him this way, nobody calls Jahlil Okafor "Oak." It's not his nickname. Of course you're free to call him whatever you want, but again, just an FYI - that's not what he goes by.

I believe "Big Jah" is something he occasionally responds to.

[Kedsy]

I'm concerned about Semi playing PF for any kind of extended minutes. Besides the fact that he was not ready to play this past year, so nobody really has any clear idea of how good he is, he's only 6'6". And while he jumps well, still, that's pretty short for a PF.

Duke lists Semi as 6'7", 230. With his strength and hops, I'd have no problem with him playing PF. Not many (if any) college PFs that could outmuscle him or push him around, and not many who could shoot over him if he was in ready defensive position. Justise's ability to play PF is more unknown, because I believe he really is 6'6" and neither as bulky nor as strong as Semi, and I can't imagine he jumps higher. Plus, he's a freshman.

Also, if Semi plays 10 minutes of PF, there's a reasonable chance that Justise would play SF alongside him. If Semi's buried on the bench and Justise moves up to PF for 10 minutes a game, he'd have Rasheed or Matt at SF alongside him, and Semi/Justise is way bigger than Justise/Matt or Justise/Rasheed.

[COYS]

Writes about this season and next. Link (http://www.newsobserver.com/2014/04/09/3769211/2013-14-college-basketball-in.html?sp=/99/103/119/269/)

Next year the 3 main guards should be T. Jones, Rasheed, and Quinn. I think this year Rasheed at the start and Quinn most of the season had problems with their roles. To me the most important thing will be for them to be with the program all year at a high level.
SoCal

I think this observation is spot on. I know others (myself included) have mentioned this, too. Aside from Jabari, Rodney and Tyler, it seemed as if the roles of all the other guys (and their place in the rotation) were in flux all year. Ultimately, I think the instability hurt the team. After the 2007 season, Coach K decided against multiple captains and gave DeMarcus Nelson the captaincy for his senior season. I wonder if the staff will attempt to do the same thing with the rotation for this upcoming season. Obviously, part of the reason the rotation never stabilized is because the performance of the guards fluctuated so much. Rasheed started the year playing poorly. Quinn went into a slump. Andre never quite rose to the level of a consistent contributor. Matt's offense was really bad despite his strong (for a freshman) defense. Something like that could always happen again. On the other hand, I think that perhaps the staff miscalculated how hard it would be for the various players to adjust to their roles. I hope that the staff is better able to see what role suits each player the best and that the players themselves are working hard to become more versatile and consistent, no matter the role they fill.

With Laura Keely's tweets and Coach K's presser where he apparently appointed Tyus the early favorite to start with Quinn and Rasheed garnering most of the minutes, it already appears that the staff is looking to define roles more clearly for next season. I love that, at Duke, playing time is always earned and never awarded. I love that any player, through excellent performance in practice, can emerge as a starter in front of an established veteran or in place of a more highly ranked recruit. However, I do think that there is something to be said for consistency. I hope Rasheed and Quinn are up to the task of joining Tyus as the three primary guards on the team next year. I want/hope that Matt and Grayson are both able to contribute, as well, but nevertheless, I want our two veteran guards plus our incoming star point guard to seize the opportunity to lead the team on the perimeter, allowing Matt and Grayson to play supporting roles. I hope that this helps lead to more consistency in the rotation, especially by the time ACC play rolls around.

[roywhite]

Duke lists Semi as 6'7", 230. With his strength and hops, I'd have no problem with him playing PF. Not many (if any) college PFs that could outmuscle him or push him around, and not many who could shoot over him if he was in ready defensive position. Justise's ability to play PF is more unknown, because I believe he really is 6'6" and neither as bulky nor as strong as Semi, and I can't imagine he jumps higher. Plus, he's a freshman.

Also, if Semi plays 10 minutes of PF, there's a reasonable chance that Justise would play SF alongside him. If Semi's buried on the bench and Justise moves up to PF for 10 minutes a game, he'd have Rasheed or Matt at SF alongside him, and Semi/Justise is way bigger than Justise/Matt or Justise/Rasheed.

FWIW, I saw a follow-up article on the recent McDonald's A-A game with results from a poll among the players themselves concerning the most outstanding of the current Burger Boys. Consensus choices for honors were:

Best offensive player -- Jahlil Okafor
Best defensive player -- Justise Winslow

[jipops]

Duke lists Semi as 6'7", 230. With his strength and hops, I'd have no problem with him playing PF. Not many (if any) college PFs that could outmuscle him or push him around, and not many who could shoot over him if he was in ready defensive position. Justise's ability to play PF is more unknown, because I believe he really is 6'6" and neither as bulky nor as strong as Semi, and I can't imagine he jumps higher. Plus, he's a freshman.

Also, if Semi plays 10 minutes of PF, there's a reasonable chance that Justise would play SF alongside him. If Semi's buried on the bench and Justise moves up to PF for 10 minutes a game, he'd have Rasheed or Matt at SF alongside him, and Semi/Justise is way bigger than Justise/Matt or Justise/Rasheed.

Semi hasn't shown much skill with the dribble. So if he's going to carve out a role this may actually be what he is best suited for. Sheed, Matt Jones, and Winslow offer skills better suited to the SF role so I think he would have an even more difficult time finding minutes there. He would even have the potential to be a bit of a stretch 4 with his ability to knock down perimeter shots.



That's a really good point, but after thinking about it some, I don't think it would be absolutely crazy to play both Okafor and Plumlee at the same time. Okafor has a 10-15 foot jumper, and also good driving ability from the high post or baseline, so he could slide over to power forward in this scenario. I think he's more versatile than you are giving him credit for. He's a really talented kid, with a ton of skill.

Many of Coach K's 8 man rotations in the past only had 3 bigs, so I don't think it's too much of a stretch. Also, we used to play both Mason and Miles together for long stretches, and I would consider them both to be true centers at the NBA level. However, I don't think we'll see Okafor and Plumlee both on the floor together for long stretches of time because I believe Amile Jefferson will play as many minutes as he can handle.

In the absence of some serious foul issues among the rest of the roster, I firmly believe there is zero chance of this happening. It is just too much of an offensive AND defensive liability. K never had Boozer and Casey Sanders on the floor at the same time and Boozer was very reliable from 10-15 ft. Marshall will only be subbing in for Jahlil. However, if Jahlil is unavailable due to foul issues in late game situations my bet is K will go with Amile at that spot.

[kAzE]

Writes about this season and next. Link (http://www.newsobserver.com/2014/04/09/3769211/2013-14-college-basketball-in.html?sp=/99/103/119/269/)

Next year the 3 main guards should be T. Jones, Rasheed, and Quinn. I think this year Rasheed at the start and Quinn most of the season had problems with their roles. To me the most important thing will be for them to be with the program all year at a high level. Oak should improve the interior defense which should help as well. I think the rest will take care of itself.

SoCal

This article brings up good points about our inconsistent back court and leadership. I think one thing that's going to come up as a chink in our armor next year will still be defense. Particularly ball pressure from our guards. The college game is so centered around guard play on both sides of the ball, and having quick, dynamic guards who can create chaos on defense is a strong recipe for success in March. Just look at the starting back court of the last 2 champions. You won't find a group 4 guards quicker and more disruptive defensively than Peyton Siva, Russ Smith, Shabazz Napier, and Ryan Boatright.

Next year, we're going to rely heavily on Quinn Cook, Tyus Jones, and Rasheed Sulaimon. None of the 3 are particularly noted for being really good defenders. Sulaimon and Cook have had games where they have shown the ability to be very good, but they've they been really inconsistent in that regard. Tyus Jones seems like a guy who has quick hands and will pick up a good amount of steals, but he's not exactly a ball hawk like Napier, who can force an opposing guard to pick up his dribble 40 feet out. It's going to be important for these guys to work together to keep opposing guards out of the paint to protect our big men from fouls. I think there are going to be a few games next year where both Jefferson and Okafor will be in foul trouble because of penetration from opposing guards. Offensively, we're going to be just fine, but defense is definitely a concern.

Leadership is another question mark. I think Jefferson showed the best leadership qualities last year among rising upperclassmen. He always showed a ton of hustle and good body language on the court, and seemed to have a good handle on what the team needed to do in certain situations. Cook and Sulaimon are also upperclassmen, and it's important that they become more mature, better leaders, and show more poise on the court when things aren't going our way. This is especially important if Jabari goes pro. I think it's automatically Jabari's team if he stays, but without him, it's up to Cook, Sulaimon, and Jefferson to be the leaders on the team. Coach K thinks pretty highly of Jones' leadership qualities, but he's still just a freshman, and there's going to be a ton of stuff he doesn't know about the college game and playing at Duke.

[Kedsy]

...having quick, dynamic guards who can create chaos on defense is a strong recipe for success in March. Just look at the starting back court of the last 2 champions. You won't find a group 4 guards quicker and more disruptive defensively than Peyton Siva, Russ Smith, Shabazz Napier, and Ryan Boatright.

I'd be careful making conclusions based on two data points. Most of the previous x (pick a number) champions didn't necessarily boast a pair of lightning quick, dynamic defensive dynamos. Two in a row doesn't really present a meaningful trend, much less a "strong recipe for success in March." Especially because there are plenty examples of such teams that didn't fare so well, such as VCU (lost to Stephen F. Austin in the round of 64).

[1 24 90]

FWIW, I saw a follow-up article on the recent McDonald's A-A game with results from a poll among the players themselves concerning the most outstanding of the current Burger Boys. Consensus choices for honors were:

Best offensive player -- Jahlil Okafor
Best defensive player -- Justise Winslow

Just saw on twitter that Okafor will be wearing #15 and Justise will be wearing #12. The other 2 guys haven't tweeted anything yet.

[SoCalDukeFan]

This article brings up good points about our inconsistent back court and leadership. I think one thing that's going to come up as a chink in our armor next year will still be defense. Particularly ball pressure from our guards. The college game is so centered around guard play on both sides of the ball, and having quick, dynamic guards who can create chaos on defense is a strong recipe for success in March. Just look at the starting back court of the last 2 champions. You won't find a group 4 guards quicker and more disruptive defensively than Peyton Siva, Russ Smith, Shabazz Napier, and Ryan Boatright.

Next year, we're going to rely heavily on Quinn Cook, Tyus Jones, and Rasheed Sulaimon. None of the 3 are particularly noted for being really good defenders. Sulaimon and Cook have had games where they have shown the ability to be very good, but they've they been really inconsistent in that regard. Tyus Jones seems like a guy who has quick hands and will pick up a good amount of steals, but he's not exactly a ball hawk like Napier, who can force an opposing guard to pick up his dribble 40 feet out. It's going to be important for these guys to work together to keep opposing guards out of the paint to protect our big men from fouls. I think there are going to be a few games next year where both Jefferson and Okafor will be in foul trouble because of penetration from opposing guards. Offensively, we're going to be just fine, but defense is definitely a concern.

Leadership is another question mark. I think Jefferson showed the best leadership qualities last year among rising upperclassmen. He always showed a ton of hustle and good body language on the court, and seemed to have a good handle on what the team needed to do in certain situations. Cook and Sulaimon are also upperclassmen, and it's important that they become more mature, better leaders, and show more poise on the court when things aren't going our way. This is especially important if Jabari goes pro. I think it's automatically Jabari's team if he stays, but without him, it's up to Cook, Sulaimon, and Jefferson to be the leaders on the team. Coach K thinks pretty highly of Jones' leadership qualities, but he's still just a freshman, and there's going to be a ton of stuff he doesn't know about the college game and playing at Duke.

I think the leadership may come from Rasheed.

Its unfair to compare our guards to Shabazz Napier. He is special. My hope is that our interior defense will be better so the the perimeter fails we still have the interior guys.

SoCal

[gumbomoop]

I hope Rasheed and Quinn are up to the task of joining Tyus as the three primary guards on the team next year. I want/hope that Matt and Grayson are both able to contribute, as well, but nevertheless, I want our two veteran guards plus our incoming star point guard to seize the opportunity to lead the team on the perimeter, allowing Matt and Grayson to play supporting roles.

Agree wholeheartedly, but think it might be useful for clarity's sake to pin down the meaning of "guards," "primary," "perimeter," and "supporting."

I'll assume first that guards in COYS's post refers only to what are usually called the 1 and 2 spots. Thus, if Tyus starts at PG, with Quinn possibly starting at the 2 but more likely backing up both Rasheed at the 2 and Tyus at the 1, those 3 primary players are very, very, very likely to account for almost all 80 minutes available in almost all games at the 2 traditionally defined guard spots. So the supporting role for Matt at the 2 spot must surely be for just a few minutes in any game, either as a D-stopper, or perhaps D/O substitution in a few late-game situations. Impressed as I am with Grayson's potential, I see little likelihood that he will play any notable supporting role at the 2.

If we expand our consideration of perimeter players beyond the traditionally defined 1 and 2, we're then talking about the wing/perimeter/3/SF spot. And here, if Krzyzewski chooses to play some perimeter small-ball, then in this circumstance, yes, we might more likely see Matt and/or Grayson play a somewhat more substantial supporting role.

It does seem likely that Tyus, Rasheed, and Quinn will occupy 75+ mpg as the perimeter guards (1 and 2 spots). It's actually conceivable to me that those 3 players might by mid-season together total 85 mpg, meaning that Rasheed rather than Matt or Grayson would take most of the small-ball-3-spot minutes.

Simply put, Tyus is a better PG than Quinn. Rasheed is right now a better player than Matt and Grayson. The big question is, will only-senior Quinn Cook see his new role as one of the keys to a great season, or as a demotion? Will Quinn lead, with his play and his emotion, when he's in as backup PG and as perimeter 3-bomber and alley-ooper?

[Bluealum]

So.....now that we know who we have (barring transfers and last minute unexpected commits) for next year... [Post Jabari delusion and pre-Hood formal declaration]

Starting(3 freshmen .... really, I'm probably wrong on this guess?)
Okafor
Jefferson
Winslow
Sulaimon
T. Jones

Top 3 heavy rotation players
Cook
Plumlee
M. Jones

2 players scrapping for the remaining minutes to show their stuff
Ojeleye
Allen

It's very possible M. Jones and Winslow could flip. It also is possible that we play the dreaded 3 small guard lineup to get Cook in as a starter. It will be interesting to see if Ojeleye and Allen aren't the lowest minute producers in any other combination. Those are two great athletes who the rotation players will be practicing against, they won't likely see better athleticism on other teams than those two.

Best of luck to Tyler, Josh, Andre, Todd, Jabari, and Rodney. That's a lot of players leaving along with Wojo, the atmosphere surrounding next years team is sure to be very different. Hopefully Amile and Rasheed in particular step up as leaders. I can't see a lot of minutes being played in critical games, without those two on the court.

[InSpades]

So.....now that we know who we have (barring transfers and last minute unexpected commits) for next year... [Post Jabari delusion and pre-Hood formal declaration]

Starting(3 freshmen .... really, I'm probably wrong on this guess?)
Okafor
Jefferson
Winslow
Sulaimon
T. Jones

Top 3 heavy rotation players
Cook
Plumlee
M. Jones

2 players scrapping for the remaining minutes to show their stuff
Ojeleye
Allen

It's very possible M. Jones and Winslow could flip. It also is possible that we play the dreaded 3 small guard lineup to get Cook in as a starter. It will be interesting to see if Ojeleye and Allen aren't the lowest minute producers in any other combination. Those are two great athletes who the rotation players will be practicing against, they won't likely see better athleticism on other teams than those two.

Best of luck to Tyler, Josh, Andre, Todd, Jabari, and Rodney. That's a lot of players leaving along with Wojo, the atmosphere surrounding next years team is sure to be very different. Hopefully Amile and Rasheed in particular step up as leaders. I can't see a lot of minutes being played in critical games, without those two on the court.

Wouldn't surprise me to see Cook starting over Winslow but we won't really have the personnel to go small for too long. If you assume we get 30 out of Sheed, Tyus and Quinn that means only 10 minutes of small ball. The other guys are going to have to step up and play some minutes at the 3 (and the 4 for that matter). Assume Okafor and Plumlee cover 40 at the 5 and then Amile gets 25 at the 4. That leaves like 45 minutes or so for Winslow/Jones/Semi/Grayson/etc. Hopefully 1 of them steps up big time... wouldn't shock me if it was Winslow. I'd love to see Grayson get some burn as well.

[flyingdutchdevil]

We talk about future minutes a lot, and I do like it. Now that the picture is pretty clear next year, let's do this!

What I know will happen (>99% confidence):
-Okafor is starting. Duh.
-Sulaimon is starting. Only player that we know right now who can create his own shot next year. Also, a top 2 (if not the top) 3pt shooter
-Jefferon is starting. At his natural position. Yay!
-Cook, T. Jones, MP3 are in the rotation.

What I think will happen (~80% confidence):
-Coach K will not start Cook and Tyus together. That is a tiny backcourt. That is a backcourt that loves to gamble and go for steals (and pretty decent at it). That is a backcount that isn't know at all for defense.
-Winslow and M. Jones will be in the rotation. Both defensive-minded players. Both bigger than the other guards.
-There will be at least one defensive-minded player who starts, and probably at the 3. His name will be Justise or Matt.

What my head thinks will happen (20-50% confidence)
-Cook will start the season. Cook is a really good passer, a really good ball handler, and a very good shooter. He is consistent. We know this. What do we know about Tyus? He is a great passer, a good ball handler, and a good shooter. I could see either starting, but I'm going with the known commodity.
-M. Jones will start the season. Our defensive stopper. Knows the system. Experience over Winslow by a year. Apparently was once known as a shooter, will re-find his shot, and be a 3-and-D player.
-T. Jones and Winslow will start at least a few games a year. They will either supplant Cook and M. Jones, or they will be used when we lose a bad game. Either way, there will be some instability at the 1 and 3 in terms of starting line-ups.
-Semi will see at least 10 min a game. Winslow can back up Amile, but I think Semi is the better choice. If Semi can show defense and a 3pt shot, that will really open up the middle for Okafor even moreso.

[Kedsy]

-Semi will see at least 10 min a game. Winslow can back up Amile, but I think Semi is the better choice. If Semi can show defense and a 3pt shot, that will really open up the middle for Okafor even moreso.

Putting aside understanding the difference between you and your head, it would be a complete shock if our 9th man plays 10 mpg in non-garbage time, barring injury and assuming Coach K is still head coach. If Semi plays "at least 10 min a game" that almost has to mean that one of the other players you've named ahead of him (most likely Matt or Marshall) will be outside the main rotation. There's really almost no way around it.

[sagegrouse]

I am 100 percent certain that these are my opinions on Thursday, April 17:

Okafor, Tyus, and Rasheed will start. I mean, we had ten or so McD A-A's this year and didn't really have a point guard. K gives the ball to Tyus on day one -- actually, if legal, on day minus 90, or about the 15th of July.

I suppose Amile will start as the PF, but he doesn't bring any scoring punch except in getting layups out of double teams on Jahlil.

The fifth starter needs to be a scorer. Maybe Justise; maybe Quinn.

[Bob Green]

It may not happen on Day 1, but by the start of conference play the starting line-up will be:

C: Okafor
PF: Jefferson
SF: Winslow
SG: Sulaimon
PG: Tyus Jones
6th Man: Cook

Yep, that's right, I'm promoting three freshmen as starters. Point guard play is the key to success so I see next season as a replay of 2000 when Coach K handed Jason Williams the ball as a freshman and said this is your team. Coach K will do the same with Tyus Jones.

[wk2109]

I mean, we had ten or so McD A-A's this year and didn't really have a point guard.

I think this was said somewhat in jest, but I just realized that the 2014-15 team will have 9 McDonald's All-Americans (as opposed to 'only' 6 this past season) barring any unforeseen transfers/commitments. I don't remember any Duke team having that many.

[Kedsy]

I think this was said somewhat in jest, but I just realized that the 2014-15 team will have 9 McDonald's All-Americans (as opposed to 'only' 6 this past season) barring any unforeseen transfers/commitments. I don't remember any Duke team having that many.

Who's the one who wasn't? Semi?

[Saratoga2]

We won't be the same slightly built team that played with players out of position. We have a center and a backup with the size to handle inside. Marshall improvedd last year and should carry forward with that improvement and more. Amile will be able to play the power forward position and he may put on some muscle and will probably improve his inside and mid range game over the off season. We will have Justise and Semi to handle the wing and sub into the 4 at times. That leaves us with 5 quality guards to play 2 positions. Clearly Quinn and Rasheed have talent and experience while Tyus is a special talent and Matt may find the offensive side of his game which was latent this year. Grayson is inexperienced but a good athlete and scorer. He probably has the most to learn. A side note is that he appears to be shorter than advertised. Maybe 6'2". Of course there will be times when our guards get time playing at the wing.

Can't forget that we will have a revamped coaching staff and that coach K will be taking care of other responsibilities during the off season. The staff was unable to get last season's team to the promised land and in some ways this will be a less experienced team than last. In retrospect, maybe it would have been better to develop some of our younger players by giving them more PT last season. I doubt the results would have been significantly worse. The facts seem to support the idea that line change and heavy substitution energized the team and made it better.

I expect this team to lose games along the way and won't be disappointed when they do. I just hope we get to see improvement as the season progresses and meaningful moves by the coaching staff to make that happen. By the way, lets work on our Free Throw shooting. UCONN showed the value of scoring from the line while Kentucky showed us what happens when you miss a lot.

[Kedsy]

UCONN showed the value of scoring from the line while Kentucky showed us what happens when you miss a lot.

You don't think everybody already knew that?

[kAzE]

We won't be the same slightly built team that played with players out of position. We have a center and a backup with the size to handle inside. Marshall improvedd last year and should carry forward with that improvement and more. Amile will be able to play the power forward position and he may put on some muscle and will probably improve his inside and mid range game over the off season. We will have Justise and Semi to handle the wing and sub into the 4 at times. That leaves us with 5 quality guards to play 2 positions. Clearly Quinn and Rasheed have talent and experience while Tyus is a special talent and Matt may find the offensive side of his game which was latent this year. Grayson is inexperienced but a good athlete and scorer. He probably has the most to learn. A side note is that he appears to be shorter than advertised. Maybe 6'2". Of course there will be times when our guards get time playing at the wing.

Can't forget that we will have a revamped coaching staff and that coach K will be taking care of other responsibilities during the off season. The staff was unable to get last season's team to the promised land and in some ways this will be a less experienced team than last. In retrospect, maybe it would have been better to develop some of our younger players by giving them more PT last season. I doubt the results would have been significantly worse. The facts seem to support the idea that line change and heavy substitution energized the team and made it better.

I expect this team to lose games along the way and won't be disappointed when they do. I just hope we get to see improvement as the season progresses and meaningful moves by the coaching staff to make that happen. By the way, lets work on our Free Throw shooting. UCONN showed the value of scoring from the line while Kentucky showed us what happens when you miss a lot.

I'm on the "Jefferson needs to shoot 1000 mid range jumpers per day this summer" bandwagon. If he can hit that shot, we're a much more dangerous offense.

Jefferson is a career 60% free throw shooter, but he shot 49% this past year. Okafor shot 57% over the course of his 4 years in high school, and this was fairly constant. Winslow was 74% for his high school career, but got better each year, shooting 80% his senior year. I'd consider him a strong free throw shooter at this point. Tyus Jones is a very good free throw shooter, and we know Cook and Sulaimon can hit foul shots. Overall though, I'd say we're a weaker free throw shooting team than last year.

Jabari led the team in attempts by a ton, which I expect Okafor to do next year. However, Jabari was a 75% shooter. I would not be surprised to see some "hack-a-Jah" defensive strategy next year. If he can't get that percentage up into the 60's, he may need to be subbed out on offense late in games, which is unfortunate. Add that to the fact that we also lose our 2nd highest volume free throw shooter, Hood, who hit 81%, Jefferson and Plumlee should both be averaging career highs in minutes this year, and we've got 2 starters and a key sub who we basically can't count on to consistently produce from the foul line. We shot about 73% as a team last year, but I expect that figure to creep down to about 70%, maybe even lower this year, which would probably make us one of the poorer free throw shooting teams in the ACC. It's definitely a concern.

[CDu]

Who's the one who wasn't? Semi?

Yep.

[jipops]

It may not happen on Day 1, but by the start of conference play the starting line-up will be:

C: Okafor
PF: Jefferson
SF: Winslow
SG: Sulaimon
PG: Tyus Jones
6th Man: Cook

Yep, that's right, I'm promoting three freshmen as starters. Point guard play is the key to success so I see next season as a replay of 2000 when Coach K handed Jason Williams the ball as a freshman and said this is your team. Coach K will do the same with Tyus Jones.

My bet is on this:

Cook
Tyus Jones
Sulaimon
Jefferson
Okafor

Though it is small in the back court, it's probably our best combination of skill. Based on the small sample that I've seen of Winslow, I really like him, but I'm not sold on him being a reliable contributor as a starter. He may get a few starting nods like Matt Jones did, but Cook is going to play the majority of minutes out there. Plus it provides versatile depth off the bench with Winslow potentially able to defend multiple positions while throwing M Jones and Plumlee out there.

[wk2109]

Who's the one who wasn't? Semi?

Yea it's Semi, who was the Parade National Player of the Year (though the Parade All-America selections are sometimes questionable).

Most Duke teams over the last decade have had 5-6 McDonald's A-A's. The last team to have as many as 8 was the 2007-08 team (Nelson, Paulus, Scheyer, Henderson, Thomas, Smith, Singler and King).

[dukelifer]

My bet is on this:

Cook
Tyus Jones
Sulaimon
Jefferson
Okafor

Though it is small in the back court, it's probably our best combination of skill. Based on the small sample that I've seen of Winslow, I really like him, but I'm not sold on him being a reliable contributor as a starter. He may get a few starting nods like Matt Jones did, but Cook is going to play the majority of minutes out there. Plus it provides versatile depth off the bench with Winslow potentially able to defend multiple positions while throwing M Jones and Plumlee out there.

I am worried about the D with that lineup. Cook and Jones are pretty small- and Sulaimon is not going to be able to deal with a decent size forward. These could be the starters- but the D is really going to struggle. My expectations of this team are not very high. A lot will depend on how good the outside shooting will be. Right now Cook is the best threat on the team.

[gofurman]

Yea it's Semi, who was the Parade National Player of the Year (though the Parade All-America selections are sometimes questionable).

Most Duke teams over the last decade have had 5-6 McDonald's A-A's. The last team to have as many as 8 was the 2007-08 team (Nelson, Paulus, Scheyer, Henderson, Thomas, Smith, Singler and King).

shows how ratings are - I would say SIX of the eight merit AA after having watched them at Duke - I get that ratings for McD are based on HS and so all of the above deserved their accolades.

But as far as Big D1 Basketball - DeMarcus Nelson - yes, Jon Scheyer - yes, Gerald Henderson - yes!, Lance Thomas - yes, Nolan SMith - yes !, Kyle Singler - yes !... Greg Paulus killed me with his back to the basket POINT GUARD play... you cannot run an offense when your durn PG is scared to dribble facing frontwards. When token pressure was applied 30 feet out Paulus would turn his back to the basket thus eliminating his ability to see, pass or run an offense. Dude just killed me. Taylor King never really turned out either as far as I know unless someone can show me otherwise.. I think he dropped out of the Villanova program?

[Bob Green]

My bet is on this:

Cook
Tyus Jones
Sulaimon
Jefferson
Okafor

Though it is small in the back court, it's probably our best combination of skill. Based on the small sample that I've seen of Winslow, I really like him, but I'm not sold on him being a reliable contributor as a starter. He may get a few starting nods like Matt Jones did, but Cook is going to play the majority of minutes out there. Plus it provides versatile depth off the bench with Winslow potentially able to defend multiple positions while throwing M Jones and Plumlee out there.

Winslow will earn the starter's spot with his defense. Coach K loves defense. Obviously I am betting the farm his defense is actually as good as his defensive reputation seeing as he hasn't played a single second of college basketball. But it is the off season and this is what we do in the off season.

[dukelifer]

Winslow will earn the starter's spot with his defense. Coach K loves defense. Obviously I am betting the farm his defense is actually as good as his defensive reputation seeing as he hasn't played a single second of college basketball. But it is the off season and this is what we do in the off season.

Winslow will only make the NBA if he is an elite defender. He looks to have the ability. I expect he will be on the floor in crunch time next year. in other words- he does not need to start- but he will need to finish.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I am worried about the D with that lineup. Cook and Jones are pretty small- and Sulaimon is not going to be able to deal with a decent size forward. These could be the starters- but the D is really going to struggle. My expectations of this team are not very high. A lot will depend on how good the outside shooting will be. Right now Cook is the best threat on the team.

I'd put money that T. Jones and Cook do not start together. That is a wonderful backcourt for assists, ball-handling, and shooting. Terrible, terrible backcourt for preventing penetration, one of our Achilles' Heels this year.

If we somehow focus on D, we have the opportunity to be really, really good. But that means that Cook and T. Jones will have to average a combined <50 min, which may not be good for our offense.

[MCFinARL]

Winslow will earn the starter's spot with his defense. Coach K loves defense. Obviously I am betting the farm his defense is actually as good as his defensive reputation seeing as he hasn't played a single second of college basketball. But it is the off season and this is what we do in the off season.

That is certainly possible, but some people on this board thought the same might be true for Matt Jones. And while he did start, very briefly, during the platoon days for his defense, it didn't translate into a lot of minutes down the road.

Of course, Winslow is not Matt Jones, and he looked both very good and very versatile in the Nike Hoop Summit. So you could very well be right--but as you have already acknowledged, we won't know until we see him play some college basketball.

[Monmouth77]

That is certainly possible, but some people on this board thought the same might be true for Matt Jones. And while he did start, very briefly, during the platoon days for his defense, it didn't translate into a lot of minutes down the road.

Of course, Winslow is not Matt Jones, and he looked both very good and very versatile in the Nike Hoop Summit. So you could very well be right--but as you have already acknowledged, we won't know until we see him play some college basketball.

The 3 spot will be the subject of the most debate among fans next year I am sure, and it will be the major strategic pivot point for our offense and defense.

The good news is that we have some depth and versatility at the wing. Rasheed gives up some size at the 3 but he's taller, longer, and quicker than Thornton, who sometimes defended that position last year. Winslow looks to have the perfect size and skill set to handle the position defensively, but (by reputation at least) doesn't really shoot jumpers. So while an Okafor-Jefferson-Winslow-(Sheed/Cook)-(Cook-Jones) lineup should be a stout defensive and monster rebounding unit, we will have some floor spacing problems on offense. Both Jefferson and Winslow (again, by reputation) can put the ball on the floor and clean up misses around the basket, but if no one respects their shots, that will be a challenge.

I am leaving out Matt Jones in the above analysis, and it is possible that he improves his shot enough to solve this problem by giving us a strong wing defender who can shoot. But he's not as big as Winslow and not as skilled as Sulaimon on the perimeter (shooting or driving) so he raises as many questions as he might answer.

It could be that we abandon the 3-shooter approach we've seen for a number of years, and space the floor better through ball movement in and out of the post (with Okafor or Jefferson passing to drivers instead of shooters). That would be something we haven't seen in a while, and maybe more like Duke teams from the 80s (although without the shooting big men).

[GGLC]

I will predict right now that Matt Jones will at minimum be one of the first people off the bench and play 12+ mpg in conference play.

If the game slows down enough for him to get his shot back, watch out.

(I also agree with those who think that we'd be much better off if Quinn and Tyus do not start together...but I wouldn't be surprised if they do anyway.)

[CALVET]

[/B]

you cannot run an offense when your durn PG is scared to dribble facing frontwards.



Made me chuckle this morning. He also drove me crazy overcommitting defensively to one side with his gimpy foot.

[Kedsy]

I will predict right now that Matt Jones will at minimum be one of the first people off the bench and play 12+ mpg in conference play.

Assuming that whoever doesn't start among Tyus/Quinn/Rasheed is the first guy off the bench (or that all three start), and assuming we don't have a major injury or defection which shuffles the rotation, there's only three seemingly feasible ways your prediction happens:

(1) Matt plays ahead of Justise;

(2) Jahlil and Marshall both play when Amile sits;

(3) Justise plays PF when Amile sits.

Which of the above are you thinking will happen?

[GGLC]

Assuming that whoever doesn't start among Tyus/Quinn/Rasheed is the first guy off the bench (or that all three start), and assuming we don't have a major injury or defection which shuffles the rotation, there's only three seemingly feasible ways your prediction happens:

(1) Matt plays ahead of Justise;

(2) Jahlil and Marshall both play when Amile sits;

(3) Justise plays PF when Amile sits.

Which of the above are you thinking will happen?

I think #1 is the most likely. Matt has already demonstrated that he's one of Duke's best defensive players, and now he'll have another year in the system to develop (on both offense and defense) and to get more comfortable offensively. Justise, while awesome and already one of my favorite Dukies based solely on his demeanor at his announcement, will be a freshman.

#3 might happen for a few minutes a game as well. I will note that you have staked out the position in this and other threads that Semi will not be seeing significant minutes next year. If you don't think Justise will be playing in the front court at all when Amile is on the bench, and you don't think that Jahlil and Marshall will be sharing much if any court time, then who do you have playing in Amile's place when Amile sits? That is, we've got 80 frontcourt minutes to divvy up. Assuming Amile and Jahlil both average around thirty, then someone else -- be it Justise, Semi, or someone in an uber-small lineup -- has to be picking up the ten minutes that Amile is sitting, because I agree with you that Okafor and Plumlee will be sharing the court almost never. And if Justise is the one picking up some of Amile's minutes, that leaves further room for Matt to see court time.

I also would not be surprised if Quinn was not the first guy off the bench on a consistent basis.

(This post obviously makes the safe assumption that Myles Turner will not be coming to Duke.)

[GGLC]

In the past, when we've had just three bigs in the rotation (frankly that's most years), we had at least one guy who could play C, at least one guy who could play PF, and at least one guy who could play both positions. Obviously we'll have to see, but at the moment I think we're looking at a C, a C, and a PF/C, which means we need a backup PF. I'm fairly confident Marshall isn't going to play the 4, so the question remains whether Jahlil can defend opposing power forwards (and also provide enough spacing for the offense to run). If he can, then you're right. If not, then I think Semi is our 8th man (assuming Jabari and Rodney both go pro).

Also, Jahlil may have a 10 to 15 footer and good driving ability in high school, but it remains to be seen whether he has that shot or that ability in college. Totally different world.

Just saw that you already answered this question, Kedsy. I apologize for apparently misremembering that you had questioned people who saw Semi as a rotation player. I'll give my own projected minutes distribution in another post.

[Kedsy]

I also would not be surprised if Quinn was not the first guy off the bench on a consistent basis.

Yeah, I know right now that burying Quinn on the bench in favor of Matt or Semi or even Grayson will be a somewhat constant refrain here on DBR for the next several months and possibly much of next season, and while I suppose that's possible, for me at least it's hard to see it happening. Quinn will be our only senior and he'll be one of our top ballhandlers and top shooters. He may not start (although he might) but I'd be very surprised if he dropped out of the rotation entirely.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Yeah, I know right now that burying Quinn on the bench in favor of Matt or Semi or even Grayson will be a somewhat constant refrain here on DBR for the next several months and possibly much of next season, and while I suppose that's possible, for me at least it's hard to see it happening. Quinn will be our only senior and he'll be one of our top ballhandlers and top shooters. He may not start (although he might) but I'd be very surprised if he dropped out of the rotation entirely.

Couldn't agree more. Quinn isn't going anywhere. And I have him pegged as a starter, mainly because he is a really good ball handler and a shooter (as you said). I also don't have the disease "shiny-new-recruit-itus", but I understand that T. Jones may be different (I feel like DBR says that about every recruit, though).

If Quinn doesn't start, then he will be the first guard off the bench. The experience, the talent, and familiarity with the 1 are intangibles that Quinn absolutely brings to the table.

[GGLC]

Yeah, I know right now that burying Quinn on the bench in favor of Matt or Semi or even Grayson will be a somewhat constant refrain here on DBR for the next several months and possibly much of next season, and while I suppose that's possible, for me at least it's hard to see it happening. Quinn will be our only senior and he'll be one of our top ballhandlers and top shooters. He may not start (although he might) but I'd be very surprised if he dropped out of the rotation entirely.

Not being first off the bench in every game is a qualitatively different thing than dropping out of the rotation entirely.

I'm actually a bigger Quinn fan than I feel like most people are -- I certainly would have kept him as the starter this season over Tyler, for example, not least because I think Quinn thrives when given minutes and responsibility and regresses when relegated to a reserve role. (And I think there's tension between that mindset and the way Quinn was utilized over the latter half of the season.) So don't take my prediction of Quinn potentially not being our sixth man as a personal endorsement.

But Quinn and Tyus are both undersized guards with reported defensive deficiencies, and if K is handing over the keys to the team to Tyus, I think there's a decent chance he'll recognize that playing Quinn and Tyus together for extended minutes (as would have to happen if Quinn were always the first off the bench) makes us vulnerable on defense in the backcourt while pushing people like Rasheed and Matt either up to match up against small forwards (which is fine for stretches but leaves us smaller in even more spots) or off the court entirely.

I don't know, we're all just talking here. And maybe Quinn and Tyus will start together, notwithstanding the defense: It's hard to see a starting lineup combination that gives us significant firepower from the perimeter without Quinn starting, unless Matt finds his shot again or Justise is a sharpshooter from the getgo.

This team is going to look very, very different next year. I hope the coaches can adjust to its strengths.

[gurufrisbee]

I feel like one of the major coaching errors of this past season was not having Quinn be the starter at PG every game this season. He earned it with a terrific sophomore season and several times this season proved why they need him out there way more than he was getting to. Sheed basically lost his starting spot and then played back into earning it back. Cook did the same, but never was allowed to keep that spot.

I'm fine with going small and having Sheed, Tyus, and Cook or going a little bigger with Sheed, Cook, and M Jones or much bigger with Sheed, Cook, and Justise but Cook and Sheed should start every game next season (barring injury).

[DavidBenAkiva]

One of the reasons I enjoy the NBA so much is the emphasis on crazy all-in schemes. In Chicago, Tom Thibodeau has very effectively created a defensive juggernaut by forcing the pick and roll to the left (http://grantland.com/features/the-chicago-bulls-coach-tom-thibodeau-quest-perfection/). In Houston - which is even crazier - they want to turn the game into nothing but 3's from James Harden and dunks from Dwight Howard. The Rockets GM's would probably cut a guy for taking a mid-range jump shot. It's all about spacing.

There are two ways to create spacing. One I knew about for a long time. JJ Redick creates spacing by shooting 3's. Defenders rush out to defend an elite perimeter scorer, leaving all sorts of space for someone like Shelden Williams to do fun things near the basket. Something else I learned this year in the NBA is the kind of spacing a good big man can create for your offense.

A dominant low-post scorer, or at least a guy that is efficient near the basket, is another way to create space. When teams double the post to guard the guy who only shoots within 5 feet of the basket, that leaves 3 guys to defend the other four. Thus, bigs can create spacing for drives to the basket, kickouts for 3's, etc.

Spacing is the key. Why did Jabari have offensive struggles going to the hoop last year? The defense didn't have to worry about doubling off of the other wings and perimeter players. Sure, Jefferson was able to get some easy baskets off the defensive attention payed to Parker and Hood, but he wasn't exactly free to do whatever he wanted in the paint. Jefferson didn't command enough attention from the defense to really free up Parker and Hood. The opposing center, who was guarding Jefferson, would step up Hood or Parker on drives to the basket. The issue the Duke team had on offense was that Parker, Hood, and Sulaimon, our three top scorers, occupied the same space on offense for most of the game. Parker would post up from time to time, but he would also float out to the wings. The defense didn't have to collapse to any single place to counter an elite scorer. The opposing defense just had to play it's normal game plan.

Next year, that all changes. Okafor is not going to float out 15 or more feet from the basket with the ball, looking to score. He'll head out there to set picks and maybe occasionally shoot it. He is going to command a lot of attention. Jefferson has to be excited to suck up a bunch of dump-offs since his man will presumably rub off to double Okafor. But the defensive attention to the post will have super positive effects for everyone else, too. Cook, Tyus Jones, and Sulaimon will have plenty of open space to drive to the basket. Okafor could come out of the lane from time to time to run the pick-and-roll with any number of guards. Winslow should have fun slicing through the opposite side of the court from Okafor. The possibilities are endless! Just imagine what a team of talented McDonald's All-Americans can do playing 4 on 3. That's what Duke is going to look like when Jahlil Okafor steps onto the court.

Okafor might not put up super gaudy numbers next year. I'm expecting something like 15 points and 8 rebounds. But his presence will have a big, big impact.

[Bob Green]

Quinn will be our only senior and he'll be one of our top ballhandlers and top shooters.

Cook can effectively play both point and shooting guard. Coach K stated at the end of the season that Cook's strength was shooting the ball so I expect Coach K to look to maximize that strength next season, by playing him alongside Tyus Jones. With Cook and Jones on the court simultaneously, essentially there will be two capable ball handlers looking to distribute and score. I view that scenario as a big strength, think Jason Williams and Chris Duhon.

The swing position in the rotation, IMHO for whatever it is worth, is small forward or wing guard. Will Justise Winslow earn a starter's slot? Will Matt Jones earn a starter's slot? Those are important questions. We will see multiple line-up variations which I will refrain from listing due to laziness but I expect five players to split the 120 minutes available in the backcourt.

While DBR will engage in a summer long discussion bordering on obsession over whether or not Quinn Cook starts, I believe it is a foregone conclusion he will play starter's minutes. Personally, I believe he will come off the bench subbing in at both SG and PG dependent upon opponent and game situation. Foul trouble and player bumps and bruises will be huge factors in the equation.

[budwom]

I think #1 is the most likely. Matt has already demonstrated that he's one of Duke's best defensive players, and now he'll have another year in the system to develop (on both offense and defense) and to get more comfortable offensively. Justise, while awesome and already one of my favorite Dukies based solely on his demeanor at his announcement, will be a freshman.

#3 might happen for a few minutes a game as well. I will note that you have staked out the position in this and other threads that Semi will not be seeing significant minutes next year. If you don't think Justise will be playing in the front court at all when Amile is on the bench, and you don't think that Jahlil and Marshall will be sharing much if any court time, then who do you have playing in Amile's place when Amile sits? That is, we've got 80 frontcourt minutes to divvy up. Assuming Amile and Jahlil both average around thirty, then someone else -- be it Justise, Semi, or someone in an uber-small lineup -- has to be picking up the ten minutes that Amile is sitting, because I agree with you that Okafor and Plumlee will be sharing the court almost never. And if Justise is the one picking up some of Amile's minutes, that leaves further room for Matt to see court time.

I also would not be surprised if Quinn was not the first guy off the bench on a consistent basis.

(This post obviously makes the safe assumption that Myles Turner will not be coming to Duke.)

Matt playing ahead of Justise? I don't think you've seen Justise play enough. Justise is going to play a LOT next season. He's a defensive beast.

[Furniture]

Didn't see any posts about the Jordan Classic game yesterday but Oklafor looked brilliant and so did Tyus. Oklafor is not just a down low player. He can really run at the basket too. In fact he runs really well for a big guy. He also took a couple of jump shots.
I thought Grayson really showed how green he was and to some extent so did Winslow.
I wonder if the coaches with let Tyus distribute the ball in transition like he has done in these games that have been shown recently?

[bob blue devil]

Cook can effectively play both point and shooting guard. Coach K stated at the end of the season that Cook's strength was shooting the ball so I expect Coach K to look to maximize that strength next season, by playing him alongside Tyus Jones. With Cook and Jones on the court simultaneously, essentially there will be two capable ball handlers looking to distribute and score. I view that scenario as a big strength, think Jason Williams and Chris Duhon.


How do you see the Cook - TJones combo comparing defensively with the JWilliams - Duhon combo?

[roywhite]

Here's a question for discussion on a breakdown of playing time:

Who will lead the team in minutes played?

I'll go with Tyus Jones.

[CDu]

Here's a question for discussion on a breakdown of playing time:

Who will lead the team in minutes played?

I'll go with Tyus Jones.

I will go with Cook or T. Jones. I think they both play a lot.

[gumbomoop]

I will go with Cook or T. Jones. I think they both play a lot.

Now having seen Tyus several times -- last evening an outstanding performance -- I'll be surprised if it's Quinn.

Highly likely that Tyus and Rasheed start and play big minutes, I'll guess the 2 highest on the team, unless that's Tyus and Jahlil. Hard for me to see Quinn getting more mpg than either Tyus or Rasheed. I'm aware of the "shiny new things" skepticism about incoming players. But Tyus is steak, not merely sizzle. His speed, vision, and handle are a bit better in all 3 categories than Quinn's, who's certainly no slouch. But unless Quinn's D pushes his minutes at PG up, he's likely to log far fewer mpg at PG than does Tyus and far fewer at SG than does Rasheed. Further, and even assuming Grayson slips to DNP by mid-season, Matt is a candidate for at least a few mpg at SG.

So the only way I can see Quinn logging more time than either Tyus or Rasheed, much less both, is if K goes perimeter small-ball for major stretches. In that scenario, Rasheed sometimes moves to wing/3, giving Quinn a chance at more minutes at 2. But perimeter small-ball would presumably include Matt some, too, so......

My speculation, then, is that Quinn gets most minutes only if either (a) or all of (b), (c), and (d) occur:

(a) Tyus isn't as outstanding as I think
(b) Quinn proves far better as a 3-bomber than Rasheed
(c) Kgoes small-ball a lot
(d) Matt doesn't play much

I do expect to see Quinn on the floor plenty, maybe ~25 mpg.

[CDu]

Now having seen Tyus several times -- last evening an outstanding performance -- I'll be surprised if it's Quinn.

Highly likely that Tyus and Rasheed start and play big minutes, I'll guess the 2 highest on the team, unless that's Tyus and Jahlil. Hard for me to see Quinn getting more mpg than either Tyus or Rasheed. I'm aware of the "shiny new things" skepticism about incoming players. But Tyus is steak, not merely sizzle. His speed, vision, and handle are a bit better in all 3 categories than Quinn's, who's certainly no slouch. But unless Quinn's D pushes his minutes at PG up, he's likely to log far fewer mpg at PG than does Tyus and far fewer at SG than does Rasheed. Further, and even assuming Grayson slips to DNP by mid-season, Matt is a candidate for at least a few mpg at SG.

So the only way I can see Quinn logging more time than either Tyus or Rasheed, much less both, is if K goes perimeter small-ball for major stretches. In that scenario, Rasheed sometimes moves to wing/3, giving Quinn a chance at more minutes at 2. But perimeter small-ball would presumably include Matt some, too, so......

My speculation, then, is that Quinn gets most minutes only if either (a) or all of (b), (c), and (d) occur:

(a) Tyus isn't as outstanding as I think
(b) Quinn proves far better as a 3-bomber than Rasheed
(c) Kgoes small-ball a lot
(d) Matt doesn't play much

I do expect to see Quinn on the floor plenty, maybe ~25 mpg.

I think Cook will play A LOT at SG and all of the backup PG minutes. Hence, I think he'll be in the discussion for most minutes.

I don't think M. Jones or Allen will play much (if at all) at SG next year. I think T. Jones, Cook, and Sulaimon are going to all be in the ~30 mpg range (with Sulaimon getting plenty of minutes at SF).

[jimsumner]

I think Cook will play A LOT at SG and all of the backup PG minutes. Hence, I think he'll be in the discussion for most minutes.

I don't think M. Jones or Allen will play much (if at all) at SG next year. I think T. Jones, Cook, and Sulaimon are going to all be in the ~30 mpg range (with Sulaimon getting plenty of minutes at SF).

I expect to see Matt Jones getting some burn at the 3. Perhaps, major burn, if he regains his shooting stroke.

[gumbomoop]

I think Cook will play A LOT at SG and all of the backup PG minutes. Hence, I think he'll be in the discussion for most minutes.

I don't think M. Jones or Allen will play much (if at all) at SG next year. I think T. Jones, Cook, and Sulaimon are going to all be in the ~30 mpg range (with Sulaimon getting plenty of minutes at SF).

We have a real disagreement, if a fairly narrow one, and, happily, not grounds for divorce. [Should things degenerate, however, I intend to blame roywhite for alienation of affection, or some such thing.]

Although I wouldn't risk divorce by going so far as to eliminate Quinn from the most-minutes discussion, I'll stick, just now, with ~25 rather than your ~30. I agree that Quinn gets all backup PG minutes, but I'd put that at 8-10, not 10-12. Also agree that he'll play a lot at SG, possibly close to as much as Rasheed, but I wouldn't say >18.

Nor can I quite agree that Rasheed will play "plenty" at SF. More precisely relevant, I don't think Rasheed will play plenty at the 3 at the same time as Quinn is playing the 2. And it seems to me that's the only scenario that gets Quinn to ~30.

Like you, I do think we'll see some perimeter small-ball. How much would depend on, among other factors, whether both Rasheed and Quinn are dependable 3-bombers. The more perimeter small-ball, the more Quinn is in the most-minutes discussion. Yes?

[tommy]

Matt playing ahead of Justise? I don't think you've seen Justise play enough. Justise is going to play a LOT next season. He's a defensive beast.

I agree with you. And I'll add two things. I think Matt's defense is being a little oversold around here. He was fine, but I didn't see evidence that he's any kind of defensive stopper out there. Maybe he'll improve, and I certainly hope he does, but I just didn't see evidence that he's a shut-down type of defender. We're not talking Billy King here, folks.

The other thing is that Justise's offensive abilities are being sold short a bit. Dude can slash, he can finish, and yes, he can hit the 15-17 foot jumpshot. The other players on the floor will command a lot of attention, but if the opponent neglects Winslow, they will be sorry.

[gumbomoop]

A perennial issue is the number of players in the rotation, and usually this means last 1/2 of season.

Assuming no Turner, we have 10 guys. I'd guess right now there's a consensus [not unanimous] view that 6 guys are certain to be in the rotation, and that these guys will be the top 6 in mpg [not in any particular order]: Jahlil, Amile, Justise, Quinn, Rashed, Tyus. Any disagreement on these 6 in rotation?

I further assume a consensus that Marshall will be in the rotation. But I can imagine that there would be some dissent from the position that Marshall would get 7th most minutes, given (1) Jahlil's talent, (2) the fact that Jahlil and Marshall each play only the 5, and (3) the likelihood that many posters see no prospect for much twin towers stuff.

Then, if Marshall is a consensus prediction for the rotation, but not necessarily a consensus choice for #7 minutes, the issue becomes: does K go 8 deep? Deeper? If Marshall were to get 10-12 mpg, Matt 8-10 mpg, and Semi 6-8, would that be a 9- or an 8.5-deep rotation?

[Troublemaker]

Next year, that all changes. Okafor is not going to float out 15 or more feet from the basket with the ball, looking to score. He'll head out there to set picks and maybe occasionally shoot it.


Jahlil will be involved in a lot of pick-and-roll with Tyus, I think. He seems to be a great roller/finisher and Tyus seems to be a great decision-maker out of p-n-r. I would guess Jahlil's going to be involved in more p-n-rs than straight postups, but he will draw a lot of attention either way. And you're right, it'll be nice to draw double-teams and multiple defenders to one or two players and hopefully Jahlil and Tyus can make the extra pass to open teammates for easy scores when those opportunities arise. As good as Jabari was, that was something he struggled with doing.

[Kedsy]

A perennial issue is the number of players in the rotation, and usually this means last 1/2 of season.

Assuming no Turner, we have 10 guys. I'd guess right now there's a consensus [not unanimous] view that 6 guys are certain to be in the rotation, and that these guys will be the top 6 in mpg [not in any particular order]: Jahlil, Amile, Justise, Quinn, Rashed, Tyus. Any disagreement on these 6 in rotation?

I further assume a consensus that Marshall will be in the rotation. But I can imagine that there would be some dissent from the position that Marshall would get 7th most minutes, given (1) Jahlil's talent, (2) the fact that Jahlil and Marshall each play only the 5, and (3) the likelihood that many posters see no prospect for much twin towers stuff.

Then, if Marshall is a consensus prediction for the rotation, but not necessarily a consensus choice for #7 minutes, the issue becomes: does K go 8 deep? Deeper? If Marshall were to get 10-12 mpg, Matt 8-10 mpg, and Semi 6-8, would that be a 9- or an 8.5-deep rotation?

If past Duke freshmen centers are any guide, I don't think we can expect to see Jahlil for more than 25 minutes a game. For now, I think we pencil in Marshall for the remaining 15 minutes, although there's a small possibility that Marshall takes a step backwards and we see lots of (very) small ball. I'm leaning toward Marshall rising to the occasion and grabbing ~15 mpg. At PF, unless he's limited by foul trouble I think Amile almost has to play ~30 mpg, and one of the big unresolved issues of the rotation will be how Coach K deals with the 10 mpg that Amile is off the floor.

I think he has two choices for those 10 minutes: go small, with Justise at PF and three guards, or go with Semi at PF, which would mean an 8-man rotation. At this point I'm hoping for Semi, but there's no rational way to determine which way it'll go.

If K goes the other way, with Justise at PF for 10 minutes, that still leaves open the possibility of an 8-man rotation, with Matt playing SF when Justise is at PF (and perhaps sometimes when Justise is out of the game). However, it's also quite possible (maybe even probable) that if Justise picks up the spare PF minutes, K might stick with a 7-man rotation of Tyus/Quinn/Rasheed/Justise/Amile/Jahlil/Marshall.

I haven't seen enough of Justise (or Matt, for that matter) to know whether Matt has a legitimate shot to beat out Justise for the primary SF minutes. But if Matt does beat Justise out, then the above conjecture about Matt missing the main rotation might apply to Justise instead. That said, based on their relative recruiting ranking (which admittedly does not always rule in these matters), it seems more likely than not that Justise (even as a freshman) will play his way ahead of sophomore Matt.

Personally, I expect to see more small ball than most DBR posters prefer, with Tyus/Quinn/Rasheed/Amile/Jahlil being Coach K's "go to" lineup. I think the Matt/Justise competition should be viewed in that light, in other words the one who plays most will be the player with the most defensive versatility, able to defend multiple positions, and again my guess is that Justise will be that player.

[CDu]

We have a real disagreement, if a fairly narrow one, and, happily, not grounds for divorce. [Should things degenerate, however, I intend to blame roywhite for alienation of affection, or some such thing.]

Although I wouldn't risk divorce by going so far as to eliminate Quinn from the most-minutes discussion, I'll stick, just now, with ~25 rather than your ~30. I agree that Quinn gets all backup PG minutes, but I'd put that at 8-10, not 10-12. Also agree that he'll play a lot at SG, possibly close to as much as Rasheed, but I wouldn't say >18.

Nor can I quite agree that Rasheed will play "plenty" at SF. More precisely relevant, I don't think Rasheed will play plenty at the 3 at the same time as Quinn is playing the 2. And it seems to me that's the only scenario that gets Quinn to ~30.

Like you, I do think we'll see some perimeter small-ball. How much would depend on, among other factors, whether both Rasheed and Quinn are dependable 3-bombers. The more perimeter small-ball, the more Quinn is in the most-minutes discussion. Yes?

I'm not filing for divorce. I think we can work things out. Here's what I see happening:

PG: T. Jones (30 mpg), Cook (10 mpg)
SG: Sulaimon/Cook (20 mpg), Cook/Sulaimon (20 mpg)
SF: Winslow/M. Jones (20-25 mpg), Sulaimon (5-10 mpg), M. Jones/Winslow (5-10 mpg)
PF: Jefferson (25-30 mpg), Ojeleye/Winslow (10 mpg), Winslow/Ojeleye (0-5 mpg)
C: Ojafor (25 mpg), Plumlee (15 mpg)

So I think there will be about 5-10 mpg where we go with the three small guards together. Whether it is Cook, Sulaimon, or T. Jones who leads the team in minutes, I don't know. But I think it will be one of those three, and I think all three will be very close to each other in minutes.

[gumbomoop]

If past Duke freshmen centers are any guide, I don't think we can expect to see Jahlil for more than 25 minutes a game.

At PF, unless he's limited by foul trouble I think Amile almost has to play ~30 mpg, and one of the big unresolved issues of the rotation will be how Coach K deals with the 10 mpg that Amile is off the floor.

K might stick with a 7-man rotation of Tyus/Quinn/Rasheed/Justise/Amile/Jahlil/Marshall.

Personally, I expect to see more small ball than most DBR posters prefer, with Tyus/Quinn/Rasheed/Amile/Jahlil being Coach K's "go to" lineup.

Some comments on several interesting issues. All my comments refer to last 1/2 of season.

Jahlil -- I'll guess that 25 mpg stat won't hold this year after mid-season. After getting acclimated to high level competition, maybe Jahlil will average closer to 27-30 last 1/2 of season.

Amile's fouling -- Key will be avoiding silly fouls early, and avoiding accumulating 2 fouls within first 12 minutes of first half. I'll guess K will need to find more like 12-13 minutes for Amile's backup minutes. Justise and/or Semi. If both, rotation expands by 1.

7-man rotation -- To some extent, it depends on how many minutes a player must play to be considered "in the rotation." Assuming there is a top 7, that we know [consensus] who they are, and this constitutes minimally a 7-man rotation, what if Matt or Semi plays ~10 mpg. That would be an 8-rotation, yes? How about if Matt and Semi each plays 5-8 mpg? Would that be a 9-rotation? 8.5? For myself, I tend to count someone who plays even 5 mpg consistently last 1/2 of season as in rotation. By that criterion, I'll guess a minimum of 8-rotation.

Go-to lineup -- Your prediction makes sense. I'd hedge only enough to guess that, as 6 [exactly 6, no greater, no fewer] guys will each play starter's minutes, that K will "go to" slightly modified combos among those 6, depending on matchups, game flow, who's hot, whatever.

[Kedsy]

Some comments on several interesting issues. All my comments refer to last 1/2 of season.

Jahlil -- I'll guess that 25 mpg stat won't hold this year after mid-season. After getting acclimated to high level competition, maybe Jahlil will average closer to 27-30 last 1/2 of season.

Here's some data from past starting freshmen centers. For the second number I'm only averaging minutes during games started.

Christian Laettner: season mpg: 16.9; 2nd half of season: 9 starts and 23.3 mpg in those starts.
Elton Brand: season mpg: 23.5; 2nd half of season: 7 starts and 24.9 mpg in those starts.
Carlos Boozer: season mpg: 23.7; 2nd half of season: 17 starts and 25.2 mpg in those starts.
Shelden Williams: season mpg: 19.2; 2nd half of season: 13 starts and 25.1 mpg in those starts.
Josh McRoberts: season mpg: 24.5; 2nd half of season: 16 starts and 27.7 mpg in those starts.

So I guess 27 is possible, since it happened to McBob, but 30 would seem unlikely. Most likely based on the above would be around 25.



7-man rotation -- To some extent, it depends on how many minutes a player must play to be considered "in the rotation." Assuming there is a top 7, that we know [consensus] who they are, and this constitutes minimally a 7-man rotation, what if Matt or Semi plays ~10 mpg. That would be an 8-rotation, yes? How about if Matt and Semi each plays 5-8 mpg? Would that be a 9-rotation? 8.5? For myself, I tend to count someone who plays even 5 mpg consistently last 1/2 of season as in rotation. By that criterion, I'll guess a minimum of 8-rotation.

I would definitely call ~10 mpg part of the rotation. Not sure about 5 to 8 mpg, I guess it depends on what point in the game they get those minutes. Also, I would only count minutes played in close games after January 1 when determining who's in the rotation. Based on that criteria, my guess is in such games we'll see an 8-man rotation if Semi backs up PF and a 7-man rotation otherwise. I highly doubt we'll see Matt and Semi each playing 5 to 8 mpg, unless Justise plays even fewer minutes, which is possible but at this point I doubt will happen.


Go-to lineup -- Your prediction makes sense. I'd hedge only enough to guess that, as 6 [exactly 6, no greater, no fewer] guys will each play starter's minutes, that K will "go to" slightly modified combos among those 6, depending on matchups, game flow, who's hot, whatever.

We'll see. It's hard to say before knowing if Justise or Matt is the 6th guy (in terms of minutes played, we're not talking about starters here, right?) and without seeing how strong they are as players. I'm assuming it'll be Justise, but at this point I think both Justise and Matt are too unknown to predict how much Coach K might "modify" his go to lineup in crunch time.

[Newton_14]

Couldn't agree more. Quinn isn't going anywhere. And I have him pegged as a starter, mainly because he is a really good ball handler and a shooter (as you said). I also don't have the disease "shiny-new-recruit-itus", but I understand that T. Jones may be different (I feel like DBR says that about every recruit, though).

If Quinn doesn't start, then he will be the first guard off the bench. The experience, the talent, and familiarity with the 1 are intangibles that Quinn absolutely brings to the table.
No, what we actually say, and it comes true every time, is that Top 5 recruits start from Day 1 and play lots of minutes, fully in the rotation all year. Tyus and Jahlil are in that category. No way either of them do not start barring injury. Now Winlsow is not a Top 5 recruit, so debating him as a starter is quite natural and it could certainly go either way with him. If he "gets it from Day 1" like a Jon Scheyer did for example, then he will either start or play lots of minutes off the bench. It is also quite possible Winslow needs time to develop, and is a sub all year with fluctuating minutes. I do agree with Kedsy though that one of Winslow or Semi is going to almost have to be a rotation player to play the 4 when Amile is sitting. They are really the only two guys we have outside of Amile that can realistically play the 4 spot.

Right now I am leaning toward Winslow over Semi, but I could certainly see it going the other way if the light comes on for Semi. Uber talented kid with great size, hops, and excellent 3 point shot. I would love love love it if both of those kids, along with Matt Jones, play so well, they force K to play them a lot. Can you imagine the potential in a lineup with Matt at the 2, Winslow at the 3, Semi at the 4, Jahlil at the 5? If all 4 of those kids were playing at a high level that could be a scary good lineup in terms of defense, rebounding, fast breaking. That is a ton of size, length, agility, and strength at each position.

Now the odds are slim of that happening for sure, but I like the size and skill set of each of those kids. I do feel that Quinn will most likely play a lot of minutes and bring ball handling and great 3 Point shooting, as long as he does not pout about Tyus being the starting PG from Day 1. Nate needs to get in his ear about what happened in 2001 when Nate moved to 6th man to allow a freshman to start for the betterment of the team. Quinn needs to embrace that role this coming season.

[_Gary]

Wrote this in the wrong thread, kinda. So I wanted to post it here too:

It's kind of amazing that this past season we were most in need of help at two positions - PG and C. This year we'll be solid at those positions but will be hurting a bit at the SF/PF position. Not really the position, but we won't have a player in the mold of Grant Hill, Mike Dunleavy/Shane Battier, Kyle Singler (you see what I did there). I think if we only had that forward that could play inside and out, with a good handle, we'd pretty much have the makings of a great team. We had that this year with both Jabari and Rodney. As best I can tell we'll be hurting in that regard next year. All our forwards have things they can do very well, but they also have limitations. We don't have that traditional forward that we've had in other championship seasons.

Right now I think the following 4 guys are automatic starters (barring something really crazy going on): Jahlil, Amile, Sheed and Tyus. It's possible Coach goes with a small lineup and the 5th starter is Quinn. Personally I don't want to see this because I think we lose too much size and will take a real beating inside. I'd rather see Sheed playing at the other guard spot and us have someone like Semi or Justise, but I certainly see the limitations if that's how it plays out.

We have the makings of a very good team, but I'm not sure we have all the parts to be a great team. If this team were to win it all, it would be the first that I'm aware of in the Coach K era without the dynamic type of forward we've had on every other Duke Championship team. Someone in the forward position is going to need to step up and "wow" us a bit, imho. Let's hope that's exactly what happens. Or, we could get Turner and that would change everything I've said. And I'd be pleased as punch. :D

[Newton_14]

Wrote this in the wrong thread, kinda. So I wanted to post it here too:

It's kind of amazing that this past season we were most in need of help at two positions - PG and C. This year we'll be solid at those positions but will be hurting a bit at the SF/PF position. Not really the position, but we won't have a player in the mold of Grant Hill, Mike Dunleavy/Shane Battier, Kyle Singler (you see what I did there). I think if we only had that forward that could play inside and out, with a good handle, we'd pretty much have the makings of a great team. We had that this year with both Jabari and Rodney. As best I can tell we'll be hurting in that regard next year. All our forwards have things they can do very well, but they also have limitations. We don't have that traditional forward that we've had in other championship seasons.

Right now I think the following 4 guys are automatic starters (barring something really crazy going on): Jahlil, Amile, Sheed and Tyus. It's possible Coach goes with a small lineup and the 5th starter is Quinn. Personally I don't want to see this because I think we lose too much size and will take a real beating inside. I'd rather see Sheed playing at the other guard spot and us have someone like Semi or Justise, but I certainly see the limitations if that's how it plays out.

We have the makings of a very good team, but I'm not sure we have all the parts to be a great team. If this team were to win it all, it would be the first that I'm aware of in the Coach K era without the dynamic type of forward we've had on every other Duke Championship team. Someone in the forward position is going to need to step up and "wow" us a bit, imho. Let's hope that's exactly what happens. Or, we could get Turner and that would change everything I've said. And I'd be pleased as punch. :D

Kyle played the 3 exclusively in 2010. The 4 was manned by Lance Thomas the majority of the minutes, with Mason backing him up. So your theory only works in 3 of the 4 years referred too. Also in 1994 we came within a fingertip of winning the Title with Antonio Lang playing the 4 spot. So that's two seasons to point to without thinking very hard where having a player similar to Amile at the 4 got us to the FF and got us a title in 1 of the 2 seasons. Also, having Hood come back would have been of no help at all at the 4 spot. That experiment failed badly this past season. Great player, but just not great at playing the 4.

[Kedsy]

This year we'll be solid at those positions but will be hurting a bit at the SF/PF position. Not really the position, but we won't have a player in the mold of Grant Hill, Mike Dunleavy/Shane Battier, Kyle Singler (you see what I did there). I think if we only had that forward that could play inside and out, with a good handle, we'd pretty much have the makings of a great team.

Wait, aren't you the one who for years has gone on and on about how we needed a penetrating point guard in order to be a good team, and now that it looks like we'll have one, you're complaining about not having the right kind of forward?

Good teams don't come in just one flavor. Almost any collection of talented players can be molded into a winning team. Doesn't mean that team will automatically make the Final Four, but sometimes teams that seemingly have all the elements miss the Final Four too.

[_Gary]

Kyle played the 3 exclusively in 2010.

You must have misunderstood me. I was talking about having a dynamic forward at either forward position, not the 4 exclusively. I'm saying that next year I don't see a player (with the exception of Rasheed - who would be playing out of position, and be very small, at the 3) right now that can play that type of basketball. We have a lot of good 3's and 4's, but I'm not sure we have one that can do everything that past forwards on championship Duke teams have done. A guy that can score outside or inside, and has a good enough handle to cause opposing forwards a problem.

And yes, Kedsy, I have been one (of several) that think we've been lacking in the PG position more times than not for a good 10 years now. Do you deny this has been a shortcoming more times than not since '04? If so, then we aren't seeing the same thing. But regardless of that, YES - I think Tyus will be an excellent PG for us next season.

All I've said is that we've got very solid parts at a minimum of three positions next year. We've got a fantastic PG and C coming in, and we've already got an excellent 2 in Rasheed. Heck, I think Amile will serve as an very nice 4 as well. But I'm not sure who's going to take that SF role and really own it. That's all I'm talking about. It's not a "woe is Duke" post, if that's what anyone thinks I'm saying. Not at all. But we will need someone to step up and be a solid inside/out guy at the forward spot (probably the 3 more so than the 4). We've got several candidates, including Justise, Semi and possibly Matt. I'm interested to see how it all plays out.

Go Duke!

[NSDukeFan]

No, what we actually say, and it comes true every time, is that Top 5 recruits start from Day 1 and play lots of minutes, fully in the rotation all year. Tyus and Jahlil are in that category. No way either of them do not start barring injury. Now Winlsow is not a Top 5 recruit, so debating him as a starter is quite natural and it could certainly go either way with him. If he "gets it from Day 1" like a Jon Scheyer did for example, then he will either start or play lots of minutes off the bench. It is also quite possible Winslow needs time to develop, and is a sub all year with fluctuating minutes. I do agree with Kedsy though that one of Winslow or Semi is going to almost have to be a rotation player to play the 4 when Amile is sitting. They are really the only two guys we have outside of Amile that can realistically play the 4 spot.

Right now I am leaning toward Winslow over Semi, but I could certainly see it going the other way if the light comes on for Semi. Uber talented kid with great size, hops, and excellent 3 point shot. I would love love love it if both of those kids, along with Matt Jones, play so well, they force K to play them a lot. Can you imagine the potential in a lineup with Matt at the 2, Winslow at the 3, Semi at the 4, Jahlil at the 5? If all 4 of those kids were playing at a high level that could be a scary good lineup in terms of defense, rebounding, fast breaking. That is a ton of size, length, agility, and strength at each position.

Now the odds are slim of that happening for sure, but I like the size and skill set of each of those kids. I do feel that Quinn will most likely play a lot of minutes and bring ball handling and great 3 Point shooting, as long as he does not pout about Tyus being the starting PG from Day 1. Nate needs to get in his ear about what happened in 2001 when Nate moved to 6th man to allow a freshman to start for the betterment of the team. Quinn needs to embrace that role this coming season.

I always enjoy the minutes discussions and have enjoyed the many good posts in this thread. The one question/ potential disagreement I have is about who could possibly play the 4 (if Duke had positions.). I agree with the consensus that Amile is the likely starter and if he can consistently play the way he did in some games this year, where many of us fans were absolutely giddy with the way he defended, rebounded and used his crafty moves around the hoop, he may be able to command 30 minutes. I also expect Justise and Semi to be perhaps the most likely candidates to play the 4 off he bench. My question is whether the team could also go big with MP3 as the 5 and Jahlil at the 4, similar to the original MPs and Zoubek combinations that had two big rim protectors on together. I would include Amile as a potential rim protector next year and would be excited at the potential to have many more inside shots contested. I think this would also give the offensively potent Rasheed, Quinn and Tyus lineups (that I hope to see often as I think they include the team's best 5 players) some size behind them to challenge penetration. Is this possible, likely, or why not?

[Saratoga2]

It looks like Tyus is a starting quality PG, based on his performance in several all star games.

The Weber State game did show how effective Quinn can be as he was determined not to lose.He carried the team but couldn't overcome our poor defensive showing. He is experienced, can handle the ball, can be a decent shooter. Perhaps his size and lack of lateral quickness hamper his defense, but he will be the most experienced guard. Rasheed also can do many things well on the court. He is quick, can penetrate, has a decent shot and defends well. Perhaps his weakness is trying to do too much. Its tough when a guy is trying so hard that he winds up making errors, but I would rather have one who cares enough to go all out. What I am saying is that while Tyus will likely start and get major minutes, both Quinn and Rasheed will also need to get solid minutes. If Matt or Grayson take some of their minutes, they will have to show a great deal in practice. Maybe Grayson is in training for the PG role in 2015/2016.

[Bob Green]

How do you see the Cook - TJones combo comparing defensively with the JWilliams - Duhon combo?

At this time, I would have to say Cook - TJones will not be as strong defensively as JWilliams - Duhon were. Williams was a tough minded defensive player so the bar is set pretty high. He could go take the ball away from an opponent. Williams recorded 235 steals over three seasons, while Quinn Cook has had 112 in his first three seasons.

[CDu]

At this time, I would have to say Cook - TJones will not be as strong defensively as JWilliams - Duhon were. Williams was a tough minded defensive player so the bar is set pretty high. He could go take the ball away from an opponent. Williams recorded 235 steals over three seasons, while Quinn Cook has had 112 in his first three seasons.

And Williams was the less skilled defender of the Williams/Duhon pairing.

[Kedsy]

At this time, I would have to say Cook - TJones will not be as strong defensively as JWilliams - Duhon were. Williams was a tough minded defensive player so the bar is set pretty high. He could go take the ball away from an opponent. Williams recorded 235 steals over three seasons, while Quinn Cook has had 112 in his first three seasons.

My recollection is that Jason Williams was a decent but not great defensive player. He did get a good amount of steals, but I'm not sure steals is the best indicator of how well you play defense.

Also, Quinn's ability to get steals is less than JWill, but in the same ballpark. Looking at Steals Pct, here's how some championship backcourts stack up:

STEALS PERCENTAGE

2014 Connecticut:
Napier: 3.1%
Boatright: 2.9%

2013 Louisville:
Siva: 4.3%
Smith: 4.1%

2012 Kentucky:
Teague: 1.7%
Lamb: 0.9%

2010 Duke:
Smith: 2.0%
Scheyer: 2.6%

2001 Duke:
JWilliams: 3.2%
Duhon: 3.6%

Last season, Quinn's steals pct was 2.7% and Rasheed's was 1.8%. That's in the same ballpark as Duke's 2010 backcourt and much better than Kentucky's 2012 backcourt. Quinn's 2.7% is not that much different from Boatright's 2.9%.

But it's all a bit misleading, I think. Steals are a combination of positioning, quick hands and, perhaps most importantly, defensive system. Duke's 2001 team was designed for steals, as was Louisville's 2013 team and Connecticut's 2014 team. Kentucky's 2012 team was designed to funnel people in to Davis, so the steal was a secondary concern. Assuming we're not going for havoc on D, Quinn's stealing ability should be just fine.

That said, the real problem with the defensive comparison between TJones/Quinn vs. JWill/Duhon is that Chris Duhon was an outstanding defensive player who gave opposing point guards fits. I don't know if Tyus is up to that standard, but maybe Rasheed can be? I don't think Rasheed has shown that level of defensive chops so far in his career, but the potential might be there.

[sagegrouse]

Here's some data from past starting freshmen centers. For the second number I'm only averaging minutes during games started.

Christian Laettner: season mpg: 16.9; 2nd half of season: 9 starts and 23.3 mpg in those starts.
Elton Brand: season mpg: 23.5; 2nd half of season: 7 starts and 24.9 mpg in those starts.
Carlos Boozer: season mpg: 23.7; 2nd half of season: 17 starts and 25.2 mpg in those starts.
Shelden Williams: season mpg: 19.2; 2nd half of season: 13 starts and 25.1 mpg in those starts.
Josh McRoberts: season mpg: 24.5; 2nd half of season: 16 starts and 27.7 mpg in those starts.

So I guess 27 is possible, since it happened to McBob, but 30 would seem unlikely. Most likely based on the above would be around 25.





I dunno, Kedsy. I think Okafor is further along than any of these as freshman. He could well average 30MPG -- except for one thing: Marshall Plumlee will probably get 15 MPG, and I doubt those two play much together. :)

Three of those listed -- Brand, Boozer and Shelden -- did not have a lot of competition for minutes. Laettner and McRoberts did have competition as freshmen, which makes their minutes even more impressive.

[SoCalDukeFan]

I dunno, Kedsy. I think Okafor is further along than any of these as freshman. He could well average 30MPG -- except for one thing: Marshall Plumlee will probably get 15 MPG, and I doubt those two play much together. :)

Three of those listed -- Brand, Boozer and Shelden -- did not have a lot of competition for minutes. Laettner and McRoberts did have competition as freshmen, which makes their minutes even more impressive.

I don't think we have "big" who consistently hits his outside shot, so no "Stretch 4." The offense will then need to be different from what K usually runs. Of course with a potential dominating inside player in Okafor the offense was going to be different than traditional anyway.

I see 3 obvious rotation players in the backcourt - T. Jones, Rasheed and Quinn.

If we essentially use Okafor as a center, then Plumlee backs him up.

Jefferson is in the rotation at one frontcourt spot. Winslow as well. Semi may get some play. Matt Jones more likely as the third frontcourt.

I guess we will see some experimentation prior to ACC play. Maybe we should just distill the essence of this thread, send it to the coaches, and save them a lot of time.

SoCal

[ACCBBallFan]

I like to look at these who starts threads with:

1. Who do they practice against daily?

2. Does that help the team develop? and

3. Can a guy play his way into the starting rotation?

So let's try that out on the dreaded small lineup that meets the criteria of best 5 proven players at moment regardless of position:

PG - Tyus Jones would be guarded by Grayson Allen who won't play a lot next year but develops backup PG skills for future years kind of like Curry did in redshirt year

Combo - Quinn Cook would be guarded by Matt Jones the presumed defensive specialist,or by Allen when K wants Tyus pressured.

3rd guard - Rasheed Sulaimon gets practice against a versatile defensive oriented and a bigger SF Justise Winslow

PF - Amile Jefferson pairs with Semi to get him ready for his reserve role, while Amile faces strength and athleticism

C - Jahlil Okafor pairs off with MP3 or Oni One

Realistically the only guys who can play their way into a starting job are Justise or Matt with Sheed moving to SG if that happens.

So daily, Matt goes head to head with Quinn to try and earn a spot, while Justise if he can dominate Sheed can also force Quinn into a 6th man role.

That's not all bad since Tyus then pairs off with an expereinced PG in Quinn.

Assuming Justise earns the SF role, Sheed then as a SG matches up with Grayson Allen or Matt Jones at SG, but then there are problems with not enough depth to guard both Justise and Amile with Semi guarding one, but then an extra guard and an extra center and one too few SF/PF.

By default I guess Matt has to guard Justise unless coach K wants to see how Jahlil can gaurd Amile at PF with MP3 and Obi squaring off.

Assuming Matt earns the SG by torching Quinn, then Quinn guards Tyus and vice versa while Grayson Allen guards Matt Jones and Justise/Sheed continue to do battle at SF, as do Amile/Semi and 3 centers alternate against each other to avoid tempers flaring too much.

As pointed out earlier different story of who is in at end of game situations if certain guys have probelms hitting a decent percentage at the line, but that's all guesswork until we get a history on college FT%.

Presumably it bodes well for more PT for Tyus, Quinn and Sheed for ball handling and FT shooting and plays into the who gets most PT portion of the thread.

[ncexnyc]

I’m somewhat surprised that everyone is handing the starting PF spot to Amile on a silver platter. While I’m extremely happy to see him playing his natural position instead of battling opposition centers, I’m not sure that he can co-exist with Okafor on the floor at the same time.

As is always the case, you have to ask yourself what does each kid bring to the table. I think Semi has displayed a nice outside shooting touch, which would definitely make it harder for teams to collapse on Jahlil. I do realize that Semi didn’t play much last year, but to sleep on someone with his physical skills and shooting touch would be foolish.

I’m also surprised to see some of you question whether Justise will be starting for us at the SF spot. The kid has size and can play defense. If you watched any of the all-star games you would have noticed that he was specifically inserted into the line-up in the end game situations just for the sole purpose of playing defense.

Matt is another player who will be interesting to watch next season. We know Coach K likes him for his defense, but the question we all want answered is whether or not Matt finds his shot during the off season.

[Newton_14]

I like to look at these who starts threads with:

1. Who do they practice against daily?

2. Does that help the team develop? and

3. Can a guy play his way into the starting rotation?

So let's try that out on the dreaded small lineup that meets the criteria of best 5 proven players at moment regardless of position:

PG - Tyus Jones would be guarded by Grayson Allen who won't play a lot next year but develops backup PG skills for future years kind of like Curry did in redshirt year

Combo - Quinn Cook would be guarded by Matt Jones the presumed defensive specialist,or by Allen when K wants Tyus pressured.

3rd guard - Rasheed Sulaimon gets practice against a versatile defensive oriented and a bigger SF Justise Winslow

PF - Amile Jefferson pairs with Semi to get him ready for his reserve role, while Amile faces strength and athleticism

C - Jahlil Okafor pairs off with MP3 or Oni One

Realistically the only guys who can play their way into a starting job are Justise or Matt with Sheed moving to SG if that happens.

So daily, Matt goes head to head with Quinn to try and earn a spot, while Justise if he can dominate Sheed can also force Quinn into a 6th man role.

That's not all bad since Tyus then pairs off with an expereinced PG in Quinn.

Assuming Justise earns the SF role, Sheed then as a SG matches up with Grayson Allen or Matt Jones at SG, but then there are problems with not enough depth to guard both Justise and Amile with Semi guarding one, but then an extra guard and an extra center and one too few SF/PF.

By default I guess Matt has to guard Justise unless coach K wants to see how Jahlil can gaurd Amile at PF with MP3 and Obi squaring off.

Assuming Matt earns the SG by torching Quinn, then Quinn guards Tyus and vice versa while Grayson Allen guards Matt Jones and Justise/Sheed continue to do battle at SF, as do Amile/Semi and 3 centers alternate against each other to avoid tempers flaring too much.

As pointed out earlier different story of who is in at end of game situations if certain guys have probelms hitting a decent percentage at the line, but that's all guesswork until we get a history on college FT%.

Presumably it bodes well for more PT for Tyus, Quinn and Sheed for ball handling and FT shooting and plays into the who gets most PT portion of the thread.

I hear what you are saying and agree in principle, but would like to point out that K and staff do a tremendous amount of switching during the 5 on 5 scrimmages. All of the matchups you list above will happen and many more. The center spot would be the most stable in terms of Blue team matchups and White team match ups, but with the 1 thru 4 spots, there will be numerous changes such that the guys are all defended by multiple players, as they migrate from Blue team to White team, dependent upon who K wants to see on the White team at that particular moment.

K's practices are really enjoyable to watch as well as educational. I would encourage anyone who has a chance to go to the open practice each year to go if they can work it out. Constant movements and drills almost like organized chaos. From 5 on 5 scrimmaging to breaking up into groups, sometimes bigs on one end, guards/wings on the other and sometimes a mix of the two on both ends with each end working on something entirely different. Fascinating to watch.

As you note though, competition in practice next season should be really interesting. Several subs will push for minutes in those practices. Outside of Grayson I would say all of them have a chance to earn minutes. Grayson just has too many guys in front of him next season imo.

[Bob Green]

I’m somewhat surprised that everyone is handing the starting PF spot to Amile on a silver platter. While I’m extremely happy to see him playing his natural position instead of battling opposition centers, I’m not sure that he can co-exist with Okafor on the floor at the same time.

Amile Jefferson's lack of a mid-range jump shot is concerning so I expect he will be working very hard over the off season to develop an 8-12 footer. However, we do not have to look very far into the past to find an example of a successful PF who didn't shoot jump shots. Lance Thomas was able to co-exist with Brian Zoubek on the floor at the same time during the second half of our 2010 National Championship season. If Jefferson plays defense, rebounds and scores opportunistic baskets he will be a starter. Jefferson will always be a "lunch pail" player.

[jv001]

Amile Jefferson's lack of a mid-range jump shot is concerning so I expect he will be working very hard over the off season to develop an 8-12 footer. However, we do not have to look very far into the past to find an example of a successful PF who didn't shoot jump shots. Lance Thomas was able to co-exist with Brian Zoubek on the floor at the same time during the second half of our 2010 National Championship season. If Jefferson plays defense, rebounds and scores opportunistic baskets he will be a starter. Jefferson will always be a "lunch pail" player.

You're correct Bob about Lance co-existing with Zoubs in 2010. But he did work on that jumper and was able to hit it that year. He really improved and I don't see why Amile cannot get better at it as well. Matter of fact, Matt Jones needs work on his shooting this summer as well. GoDuke!

[ACCBBallFan]

I hear what you are saying and agree in principle, but would like to point out that K and staff do a tremendous amount of switching during the 5 on 5 scrimmages. All of the matchups you list above will happen and many more. The center spot would be the most stable in terms of Blue team matchups and White team match ups, but with the 1 thru 4 spots, there will be numerous changes such that the guys are all defended by multiple players, as they migrate from Blue team to White team, dependent upon who K wants to see on the White team at that particular moment.

K's practices are really enjoyable to watch as well as educational. I would encourage anyone who has a chance to go to the open practice each year to go if they can work it out. Constant movements and drills almost like organized chaos. From 5 on 5 scrimmaging to breaking up into groups, sometimes bigs on one end, guards/wings on the other and sometimes a mix of the two on both ends with each end working on something entirely different. Fascinating to watch.

As you note though, competition in practice next season should be really interesting. Several subs will push for minutes in those practices. Outside of Grayson I would say all of them have a chance to earn minutes. Grayson just has too many guys in front of him next season imo.

Thanks Newton. Though I may never have the chance to attend one, I know that you are so right that a Duke practice is so much more than a 5 vs 5 scrimmage. Also even in the sets as listed, there is a lot of switching that goes on.

It's just from a flexibility standpoint, Duke only has 4.5 bigs and one of them is ineligible, not counting roles assumed by assistant coaches or others, versus 6.5 wing players on active roster. Usually the walk ons are also on the small side, with Todd Z an exception.

If as the prior poster postulates Semi is ready to displace Amile as starting PF, he will have every opportunity to do so.

Let's hope it is as obvious to Myles Turner on Apr 30 as it is to us that Duke could really use a guy with his skill set to complement what is already in place, someone deemed to be betwen Ryan Kelly and Kevin Durant in skill set being the missing piece.

Barring that, it does seem that from a play the best 5 standpoint as long as at least one is a PG that Tyus, Quinn, Rasheeed, Amile and Jahlil are well ahead of Allen, Matt, Justise, Semi,and MP3, in terms of Duke experience or HS rankings, with Matt and Justise being the two most ready to change that perception.

I would agree with what Newton alludes to, that it becomes somewhat of a self fulfilling prophecy that the guys paired on the first unit have much better chemistry than who is left, making it tough to play one's way onto that starting unit if not for the way coach K conducts the practices to compensate for that.

[_Gary]

Amile Jefferson's lack of a mid-range jump shot is concerning so I expect he will be working very hard over the off season to develop an 8-12 footer. However, we do not have to look very far into the past to find an example of a successful PF who didn't shoot jump shots. Lance Thomas was able to co-exist with Brian Zoubek on the floor at the same time during the second half of our 2010 National Championship season. If Jefferson plays defense, rebounds and scores opportunistic baskets he will be a starter. Jefferson will always be a "lunch pail" player.

This has been my point about lacking outside shooting and solid command of a dribble & drive from our forwards (both power and small) this year. Unfortunately we are losing two forwards who had these skills in spades and now, finally getting a true back to the basket big man, I'm concerned about our ability to space the floor and give him room to work down low. What I fear is that Okafor is going to see a ton of doubles because our forwards simply aren't going to scare too many opponents with their outside shooting. We wouldn't need both of them to do that. But we do need at least one of our 3/4 to be a legit threat from the outside to take full advantage of what our new center will bring.

This is why I think we might see a lot of Tyus, Quinn and Rasheed on the floor at the same time. It will give us solid outside shooting, but we'll be very small at the same time. So it's going to be interesting. If any one of Amile, Semi, or Justise can develop a solid outside shot that forces the opposing team to respect them, it will go a long way toward us being tough to beat. But if we aren't able to get one of those three to consistently hit jumpers, we'll probably be forced to play small with Rasheed and possibly Matt (if he can find his stroke) playing the 3. We can't only have two outside threats in the game and still use Okafor to the fullest. He'll see too many doubles and possibly triples if we can't get someone on the court at the 3/4 to relieve that. So our forwards really, really need to work on their shots this summer.

Just my two cents.

[Bob Green]

We can't only have two outside threats in the game and still use Okafor to the fullest. He'll see too many doubles and possibly triples if we can't get someone on the court at the 3/4 to relieve that. So our forwards really, really need to work on their shots this summer.

Just my two cents.

Semi Ojeleye demonstrated a nice jump shot during the minimum minutes he played as a freshman. The ability to use that jumper to create operating space down low for Okafor could be a path to increased playing time as a sophomore.

[_Gary]

Semi Ojeleye demonstrated a nice jump shot during the minimum minutes he played as a freshman. The ability to use that jumper to create operating space down low for Okafor could be a path to increased playing time as a sophomore.

Agreed. I remember those early games and him having a decent shot from 3. He also had the body and the hops to really bang the boards if given the chance.

[dcar1985]

Agreed. I remember those early games and him having a decent shot from 3. He also had the body and the hops to really bang the boards if given the chance.

He's clearly got the stroke to do it....evidence from last week https://twitter.com/dukeblueplanet/status/457240263489253377

[gumbomoop]

Importing some tag quotes from the JBC thread, as my intent is to muse.


.... my skepticism regarding Winslow comes mostly from seeing Gbinije ride the pine, who I see as a similar player to Winslow. The whole season we were dying for someone who could guard the big wings, yet Coach K continued to play three of Tyler, Quinn, Seth, and Rivers in the back court. Which makes me think that it is really hard for a defensive-only player to get minutes as a freshman.

While CDu and Kedsy responded over in the JBC thread to UC's concern with the important point that Winslow comes out of HS more highly rated than was Gbinije, I think there's another very important factor. Always perplexed, like UC, about why Gbinije played so little, it was only after he left that I came to understand just how quiet Gbinije was on the court. Although I don't think he was "defensive-only," he seemed more advanced on D than O, but still didn't play.

In retrospect, it seems closer to an established fact than to wild guess that his D-ficiency was that he was literally unable to communicate, to talk, much. In an article or two on his smoother transition to 'Cuse, we read about Gbinije's unusually quiet demeanor and personality.

I can't claim to have noticed enough about Justise's personality or communication skills, but he sure doesn't seem passive. Seems to be all over the court, a presence. Again, Gbinije was unusually quiet, unable to make himself learn the staff's emphasis on talking. Even if Justise is relatively quiet, Gbinije was off the charts.

We had it right; we just didn't know what it meant, nor how crucial: Silent G.

Discussions of Winslow -- of any and every player, actually -- tend by now to bleed into musings re rotation. And a major debate emerges: perimeter small-ball trio of Tyus/Rasheed/Quinn, and its effectiveness on O, with concomitant implications for relieving double-team pressure from Jahlil, versus its ineffectiveness on D.


We need a M. Jones or Winslow out there to help with the D. I'd be shocked if we started the ACC with Jones, Cook, and Sulaimon.

First, I prefer that, as FDD has done here, we muse about the rotation as we think things will play out by mid-season. Among other things, mpg for many players will fluctuate over the course of the season. I'd guess most of us think the staff will early experiment a fair amount with different combos, especially given 2 excellent freshmen, a third likely to play a lot, and a wild-card-long-shot fourth.

IMO it's highly likely that 6 guys [Tyus, Jahlil, Rasheed, Quinn, Amile, Justise] will get starter's minutes by start of ACC, and I sense that this is not my opinion alone. Similarly, no one has yet suggested that Marshall will be shut out; generally the view is that he'll get 12-15 mpg as backup. Concerns about how ready Justise actually will be, plus major concerns about a particular perimeter-small-ball combo, lead some to plump for big minutes for Matt.

But we need precision here, for if Matt is preferred to Justise at wing/3, that still means lots of perimeter-small-ball. The only way to avoid periemter-small-ball is to play Justise/Semi at wing/3, and only 2 of Tyus/Rasheed/Quinn/Matt at PG and wing/2. And at least a few posters have implied that playing Tyus and Quinn together, no matter who mans the wing/3, asks for trouble.

Although I earlier engaged in a mini-debate with CDu re Quinn's minutes, he and others have persuaded me that Quinn's minutes will not fall below 25 mpg. And as I have no doubt whatsoever that (1) Tyus is our PG and likely highest mpg guy, and (2) Rasheed will play starter's minutes, it seems likely that we'll see some perimeter-small-ball every half of every game, including after mid-season.

Don't know how much, after start of ACC. Depends on many factors: Are Rasheed and Quinn both hitting good % of 3-bombs? Does Matt move ahead of Justise at wing/3? Does Semi play any wing/3? Does Semi play any stretch-4? Does Grayson play at all?

On D, the biggest question is whether we'll get killed with any, i.e., every small-ball combo?

On O, biggest might be, if no emergence of Semi as dependable stretch-4 shooter, and no dependable 10-12-foot shot from Amile, will the specific small-ball combo that includes Quinn and Rasheed -- on the floor at the same time -- be essential to relieve Jahlil from double-teaming?

[ncexnyc]

Amile Jefferson's lack of a mid-range jump shot is concerning so I expect he will be working very hard over the off season to develop an 8-12 footer. However, we do not have to look very far into the past to find an example of a successful PF who didn't shoot jump shots. Lance Thomas was able to co-exist with Brian Zoubek on the floor at the same time during the second half of our 2010 National Championship season. If Jefferson plays defense, rebounds and scores opportunistic baskets he will be a starter. Jefferson will always be a "lunch pail" player.

You're absolutely right about Zoubek and Thomas playing side by side, however that scenario was completely different.

Supposedly our offense is going to revolve around getting Okafor the ball down low. That means we need to keep the paint as open as possible so the kid has room to work his magic. If Amile can't keep defenses honest that could be a problem for us.

The practices should be very interesting and the battle between "The Eel" and "The Man-Thing" should be quite a show.

As it was last year, the talent is there. The question is whether it can all gel into a cohesive unit.

[jipops]

Based on comments in this thread and the jordan brand thread, I think people are really under estimating Quinn in his senior season. I feel certain he's going to start along with Tyus for at least most of the season, would be shocked if he doesn't.

Quinn had a rather forgettable junior year but people forget how effective he was the season before that. Unlike last season he played with a major post presence the year before. This may have a lot to do with the difference.

[SupaDave]

Based on comments in this thread and the jordan brand thread, I think people are really under estimating Quinn in his senior season. I feel certain he's going to start along with Tyus for at least most of the season, would be shocked if he doesn't.

Quinn had a rather forgettable junior year but people forget how effective he was the season before that. Unlike last season he played with a major post presence the year before. This may have a lot to do with the difference.

Well he not only had Mason but he also had Ryan Kelly telling everyone what to do...

[Newton_14]

Thanks Newton. Though I may never have the chance to attend one, I know that you are so right that a Duke practice is so much more than a 5 vs 5 scrimmage. Also even in the sets as listed, there is a lot of switching that goes on.

It's just from a flexibility standpoint, Duke only has 4.5 bigs and one of them is ineligible, not counting roles assumed by assistant coaches or others, versus 6.5 wing players on active roster. Usually the walk ons are also on the small side, with Todd Z an exception.

If as the prior poster postulates Semi is ready to displace Amile as starting PF, he will have every opportunity to do so.

Let's hope it is as obvious to Myles Turner on Apr 30 as it is to us that Duke could really use a guy with his skill set to complement what is already in place, someone deemed to be betwen Ryan Kelly and Kevin Durant in skill set being the missing piece.

Barring that, it does seem that from a play the best 5 standpoint as long as at least one is a PG that Tyus, Quinn, Rasheeed, Amile and Jahlil are well ahead of Allen, Matt, Justise, Semi,and MP3, in terms of Duke experience or HS rankings, with Matt and Justise being the two most ready to change that perception.

I would agree with what Newton alludes to, that it becomes somewhat of a self fulfilling prophecy that the guys paired on the first unit have much better chemistry than who is left, making it tough to play one's way onto that starting unit if not for the way coach K conducts the practices to compensate for that.

Yeah agree that Turner would really fit nicely on this particular Duke team. Not expecting it, but should it happen, man will that be exciting. Changes the entire dynamic of the team really. They will be good as is, but ceiling goes up significantly if Turner signs on.

[_Gary]

Yeah agree that Turner would really fit nicely on this particular Duke team. Not expecting it, but should it happen, man will that be exciting. Changes the entire dynamic of the team really. They will be good as is, but ceiling goes up significantly if Turner signs on.

Without a doubt (to your last sentence). I know it's probably a long shot, but I'm keeping my fingers crossed for us landing Turner. Not just because he's a huge talent, but for the reason you stated - he'd compliment this particular team very, very well. I'll stop short of saying we need him badly, but I think we need what he can bring more than just a little.

[sagegrouse]

Without a doubt (to your last sentence). I know it's probably a long shot, but I'm keeping my fingers crossed for us landing Turner. Not just because he's a huge talent, but for the reason you stated - he'd compliment this particular team very, very well. I'll stop short of saying we need him badly, but I think we need what he can bring more than just a little.

Yes, I hear he was reared with excellent manners.

[kAzE]

I think we're going to be fine whether or not Turner comes on board. With him, it's obviously an additional asset, but there's also the downside of likely starting 4 freshman, which is a risky proposition, at least early in the year. With Turner, Jefferson becomes a bench player, and guys like Ojeleye, and Allen will see even less minutes, which slows their development.

Look, Turner coming would be fantastic. We would be the most physically dominant Duke team up front, maybe EVER. Turner is also a better fit with Okafor, with his unusual ability to knock down long range shots. The only drawbacks are that the best leader on the team, Jefferson comes off the bench, and less minutes for guys at the end of the rotation who we will likely need in future seasons. So either way, I think Duke comes out fine.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I think we're going to be fine whether or not Turner comes on board. With him, it's obviously an additional asset, but there's also the downside of likely starting 4 freshman, which is a risky proposition, at least early in the year. With Turner, Jefferson becomes a bench player, and guys like Ojeleye, and Allen will see even less minutes, which slows their development.

Look, Turner coming would be fantastic. We would be the most physically dominant Duke team up front, maybe EVER. Turner is also a better fit with Okafor, with his unusual ability to knock down long range shots. The only drawbacks are that the best leader on the team, Jefferson comes off the bench, and less minutes for guys at the end of the rotation who we will likely need in future seasons. So either way, I think Duke comes out fine.

I agree with this. I think Turner would be an asset, but he's not a "game changer" on this current team. If we were to get an MKG-type player, ie a leader at the wing who plays lock-down D and makes everyone better, then I'd argue that that player is a "game changer". Right now, we have AJ, who is a good player and now playing his natural position (Thank God). AJ's D is serviceable, and will only get better.

[jimsumner]

If we were to get an MKG-type player, ie a leader at the wing who plays lock-down D and makes everyone better, then I'd argue that that player is a "game changer". Right now, we have AJ, who is a good player and now playing his natural position (Thank God). AJ's D is serviceable, and will only get better.

Didn't you just describe Winslow?

[Kedsy]

Didn't you just describe Winslow?

If Justise Winslow is even in the same ballpark as Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (who was #3 in the RSCI, by the way), then the entire conversation changes.

[flyingdutchdevil]

If Justise Winslow is even in the same ballpark as Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (who was #3 in the RSCI, by the way), then the entire conversation changes.

Couldn't agree more. Winslow is a really good player. He could be okay, he could be good, he could be great (small chance, as this happens with few players, not to mention freshman). MKG was a fantastic in college. A true leader (as a freshman) who could lock down opponents and score with his athleticism.

[jimsumner]

If Justise Winslow is even in the same ballpark as Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (who was #3 in the RSCI, by the way), then the entire conversation changes.

Didn't suggest he was as good as MKG. Suggested he was similar to what FlyingDutchDevil described as a Duke need. Note that Winslow is considered a consummate complementary player and the best wing defender in the high school class of 2014. And he's on most top 10/15 lists. He might have been the U.S.'s best all-around player at the Nike Hoops Summit.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Didn't suggest he was as good as MKG. Suggested he was similar to what FlyingDutchDevil you described as a Duke need. Note than Winslow generally is considered the best wing defender in the high school class of 2014. And he's on most top 10/15 lists. He might have been the U.S. best all-around player at the Nike Hoops Summit.

Can Winslow be as good as MKG? Of course, there is always a chance. But the smart money is that he'll be a poor man's MKG. And there is nothing wrong with that, because MKG was a stud.

Also, I'm not sure I would call the players "similar". "Similar" implies similar talent level, and that's a tall order (although still a chance!). Would you call Hurley similar to Paulus? Both pass-first point guards, decent 3pt shooters, highly-touted high school players, attending blue chip schools? I wouldn't...

[roywhite]

If Justise Winslow is even in the same ballpark as Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (who was #3 in the RSCI, by the way), then the entire conversation changes.


Didn't suggest he was as good as MKG. Suggested he was similar to what FlyingDutchDevil described as a Duke need. Note that Winslow is considered a consummate complementary player and the best wing defender in the high school class of 2014. And he's on most top 10/15 lists. He might have been the U.S.'s best all-around player at the Nike Hoops Summit.


Can Winslow be as good as MKG? Of course, there is always a chance. But the smart money is that he'll be a poor man's MKG. And there is nothing wrong with that, because MKG was a stud.
Also, I'm not sure I would call the players "similar". "Similar" implies similar talent level, and that's a tall order (although still a chance!). Would you call Hurley similar to Paulus? Both pass-first point guards, decent 3pt shooters, highly-touted high school players, attending blue chip schools? I wouldn't...

Sorry, I don't get the love for Michael Kidd-Gilchrist; yes, he was highly rated and helped Kentucky win a national championship. Whatever talents he had didn't include shooting. He averaged 7 points a game this past season for Charlotte. In his NBA career, he has made *3* 3-pt shots. He's not nearly the best player on his pro team. He wasn't the best player on his college team. Heck, he wasn't the best player on his high school team.

We don't know how Winslow will do this next year, or what his ultimate potential is. But, really, I don't find it out of the question that he can be as good as MKG, maybe better. Winslow has been terrific in FIBA competition. He defends, rebounds, has a good floor game, can score, and is a terrific teammate.

[_Gary]

Where I think MT would be a game-changer, besides his gifted athleticism, is that he can indeed knock down the outside shot. Other than flashes from Semi last year, and a very small sample size from Winslow in a couple of all-star games, I'm not sure we have any other natural forwards that can do that. And the more shooters we can put around Okafor, to space the floor, the better. If that shooter comes with size (like Myles has in spades) then all the better. In fact, if we picked up Myles I think we could get away with playing both Tyus and Quinn at the guard spots and Rasheed at the 3. We'd have enough size up front with Okafor and Turner to offset losing a bit playing three guards. Then we aren't talking about starting four freshman and we have a little more balance in that regard. Not a lot more, but some. Anyhow, that's my logic.

[jimsumner]

Can Winslow be as good as MKG? Of course, there is always a chance. But the smart money is that he'll be a poor man's MKG. And there is nothing wrong with that, because MKG was a stud.

Also, I'm not sure I would call the players "similar". "Similar" implies similar talent level, and that's a tall order (although still a chance!). Would you call Hurley similar to Paulus? Both pass-first point guards, decent 3pt shooters, highly-touted high school players, attending blue chip schools? I wouldn't...

I think Winslow might be better than you think. You indicated that you wanted a lock-down wing defender who made his teammates better. I believe Winslow fits the bill. That's what I mean by similar.

We shall see. But based on what I've seen and what I've heard, I'm pretty darned certain he'll be closer to MKG in overall impact than Paulus was to Hurley. And I guarantee you Winslow won't end his senior season buried on the bench.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Sorry, I don't get the love for Michael Kidd-Gilchrist; yes, he was highly rated and helped Kentucky win a national championship. Whatever talents he had didn't include shooting. He averaged 7 points a game this past season for Charlotte. In his NBA career, he has made *3* 3-pt shots. He's not nearly the best player on his pro team. He wasn't the best player on his college team. Heck, he wasn't the best player on his high school team.

We don't know how Winslow will do this next year, or what his ultimate potential is. But, really, I don't find it out of the question that he can be as good as MKG, maybe better. Winslow has been terrific in FIBA competition. He defends, rebounds, has a good floor game, can score, and is a terrific teammate.

Was Nolan Smith a stud in college? Pretty sure we'd all say yes. Stud in the NBA? Different story. Let's not compare what a player does in college vs the NBA. Completely different animals.

MKG was one of the best players in the country. His defense was on another level. He was a leader (as a freshman no less). He rebounded well (7.4 rpg), shot well (49%), averaged a block and a steal a game, and also averaged 12 points. Again, all as a freshman.

To not give MKG a ton of credit is not doing your homework, IMO. I hate Kentucky, but I love me some MKG.

If Winslow is anything like MKG, he will arguably be an All-American. Also, on this forum, I'm not as high on Winslow as most. I have a lot more faith in M. Jones, a player who is good defensively AND has 1 year of Coach K / Duke than Winslow. I am cured of "Shiny-recruit-itis".

[Kedsy]

Sorry, I don't get the love for Michael Kidd-Gilchrist; yes, he was highly rated and helped Kentucky win a national championship. Whatever talents he had didn't include shooting. He averaged 7 points a game this past season for Charlotte. In his NBA career, he has made *3* 3-pt shots. He's not nearly the best player on his pro team. He wasn't the best player on his college team. Heck, he wasn't the best player on his high school team.

MKG was a game-changing defender who as a freshman was the unquestioned team leader for a national champion. Those (defense and leadership) are perhaps the two biggest unknowns for next year's team, which is why I said the conversation entirely changes if Justise is even in that ballpark.

Also, MKG was first-team All SEC and second-team All American, as a freshman. I don't really care about his pro career or even high school, but I think you're selling the college Kidd-Gilchrist way short.

[roywhite]

Okay, my last comment on Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. IMO, he was a very good player on Kentucky's national championship team. And it was a great team that could do it all, including playing great defense, of which MKG was an important part. But what really made that team special was a great player -- Anthony Davis. He was the player who allowed for the style of perimeter defense Kentucky played, and he was key to the fast breaks on offense because of defensive rebounding and blocked shots.

We can see a pretty clear role for Justise Winslow; be a defensive stopper, be a rebounder, score mostly around the basket, share the ball, and be a good teammate. He, too, will play with a talented center, and will also have a good point guard. Winslow seems like the perfect guy for his role at Duke.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Okay, my last comment on Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. IMO, he was a very good player on Kentucky's national championship team. And it was a great team that could do it all, including playing great defense, of which MKG was an important part. But what really made that team special was a great player -- Anthony Davis. He was the player who allowed for the style of perimeter defense Kentucky played, and he was key to the fast breaks on offense because of defensive rebounding and blocked shots.

We can see a pretty clear role for Justise Winslow; be a defensive stopper, be a rebounder, score mostly around the basket, share the ball, and be a good teammate. He, too, will play with a talented center, and will also have a good point guard. Winslow seems like the perfect guy for his role at Duke.

You're assuming that Winslow is going to come out firing and play mature right out the gate. IMO, that's what made MKG special; he was mature beyond his years (which is why he was such a good leader and teammate).

I'm not so sure. And this isn't a knock against Winslow; it's a knock against freshman in general!

We were so fortunate to have a player like Jabari who played offense like a senior star. That doesn't happen often. And if it does, especially at Duke in the last five years, it's predominantly on offense.

I hope I eat plenty of crow and Winslow is what we all want him to be. And I'll eat it without salt and garlic. I really like Winslow, but I'm not sure he can fill the gap of what we need.

[Bob Green]

MKG was a game-changing defender who as a freshman was the unquestioned team leader for a national champion.

My memory says Kentucky won the national championship when MKG was a sophomore. Am I wrong again?

[flyingdutchdevil]

My memory says Kentucky won the national championship when MKG was a sophomore. Am I wrong again?

He was a freshman. He just didn't play like one.

[Bob Green]

He was a freshman. He just didn't play like one.

Thanks! For some reason I thought he played two years at Kentucky. Being wrong doesn't bother me because it happens so frequently I am used to it.

[CDu]

My memory says Kentucky won the national championship when MKG was a sophomore. Am I wrong again?

I suspect that you're thinking of Terrence Jones. Kidd-Gilchrist (along with Davis and Teague) were one-and-dones that year for Kentucky. Jones (and Lamb) were sophomores.

[Bob Green]

I suspect that you're thinking of Terrence Jones.

That is exactly who I was thinking of so thanks so much!

[tommy]

I think we're going to be fine whether or not Turner comes on board. With him, it's obviously an additional asset, but there's also the downside of likely starting 4 freshman, which is a risky proposition, at least early in the year. With Turner, Jefferson becomes a bench player, and guys like Ojeleye, and Allen will see even less minutes, which slows their development.

Look, Turner coming would be fantastic. We would be the most physically dominant Duke team up front, maybe EVER. Turner is also a better fit with Okafor, with his unusual ability to knock down long range shots. The only drawbacks are that the best leader on the team, Jefferson comes off the bench, and less minutes for guys at the end of the rotation who we will likely need in future seasons. So either way, I think Duke comes out fine.

I've seen this type of assertion about Turner in a couple of threads, and I think the assumptions about Turner's outside shooting may be a bit overblown. He ain't Kevin Durant. He ain't even Ryan Kelly from range. I will say that his jumpshooting game is better than his underdeveloped low-post game, but I would be careful about assuming too much about his long range shooting. Caveat is that I've only seen him play a couple of times in person (and even those were eight and nine months ago), so maybe he just wasn't as aggressive in displaying his repertoire in those couple of games and they're the outliers. But I came away from those games much more impressed with his defense and shotblocking abilities than I did his offensive game.

[richardjackson199]

I've seen this type of assertion about Turner in a couple of threads, and I think the assumptions about Turner's outside shooting may be a bit overblown. He ain't Kevin Durant. He ain't even Ryan Kelly from range. I will say that his jumpshooting game is better than his underdeveloped low-post game, but I would be careful about assuming too much about his long range shooting. Caveat is that I've only seen him play a couple of times in person (and even those were eight and nine months ago), so maybe he just wasn't as aggressive in displaying his repertoire in those couple of games and they're the outliers. But I came away from those games much more impressed with his defense and shotblocking abilities than I did his offensive game.

His defense and shotblocking at the 4 (or whatever you want to call it) is why Duke really could have been better with him IMO. I like his stretch 4 game, not meaning a 3 point shooter like Kelly. Turner has nice mid-range jump-shooting. If he were on our team, that would be a huge asset as teams would try to zone us to neutralize him and Okafor. His face-up range + defensive rim-protection could have made us just nasty next year. With some good work in the weight room with a good trainer between now and December, (which duh, he'll get) Turner has immense potential.

He won't be at Duke, as per 2014 recruiting thread. I guess since Duke missed on him, I hope he ends up at SMU. He and Mudiay could be fun to watch. I think he would be too dangerous to our title hopes at Kansas, and Rick Barnes is too much of a tool to get another elite recruit.

[kAzE]

I've seen this type of assertion about Turner in a couple of threads, and I think the assumptions about Turner's outside shooting may be a bit overblown. He ain't Kevin Durant. He ain't even Ryan Kelly from range. I will say that his jumpshooting game is better than his underdeveloped low-post game, but I would be careful about assuming too much about his long range shooting. Caveat is that I've only seen him play a couple of times in person (and even those were eight and nine months ago), so maybe he just wasn't as aggressive in displaying his repertoire in those couple of games and they're the outliers. But I came away from those games much more impressed with his defense and shotblocking abilities than I did his offensive game.

I only say it's unusual because typically, guys like Myles Turner (freakishly athletic rim protecting big men) are horrendous jump shooters. I didn't say his ability to knock down outside shots was incredible, just that it's unusual.

[NSDukeFan]

Thanks! For some reason I thought he played two years at Kentucky. Being wrong doesn't bother me because it happens so frequently I am used to it.

I'm not sure you're supposed to admit you could possibly be wrong on a sports internet site.

Add: count me as a huge MKG fan. I loved watching both him and Davis in college, even though I am no fan of Cal and/or UK. I thought he was very deserving of his all-American honours and had almost as big an impact as Davis did on that team, both offensively and defensively.

[ACCBBallFan]

I only say it's unusual because typically, guys like Myles Turner (freakishly athletic rim protecting big men) are horrendous jump shooters. I didn't say his ability to knock down outside shots was incredible, just that it's unusual.

Lately, no so much. Most of the bigs seem to want to be perimeter players with Jahlil Okafor thanfully being the exception.

[MarkD83]

Now that it is I don't want to retread any past comments but thought I would pose the rotation question in a different way.

First, it does not matter how Duke matches up with teams like Ky, Az etc. because if we play them I hope it is in the Final Four. However, how does Duke match up with three types of teams they will face in the ACC.

1. Defensive team that does not give up anything easily: UVA
2. Team that plays efficient zone defense: Syracuse
3. Team that is big with a great point guard: UNC

[Kedsy]

3. Team that is big with a great point guard: UNC

Will Paige be playing PG for UNC, or SG? Because if there's one thing we know, it's that they do have positions at UNC.

[uh_no]

Will Paige be playing PG for UNC, or SG? Because if there's one thing we know, it's that they do have positions at UNC.

they may have positions, but fortunately what they don't have is players!

[SoCalDukeFan]

Now that it is I don't want to retread any past comments but thought I would pose the rotation question in a different way.

First, it does not matter how Duke matches up with teams like Ky, Az etc. because if we play them I hope it is in the Final Four. However, how does Duke match up with three types of teams they will face in the ACC.

1. Defensive team that does not give up anything easily: UVA
2. Team that plays efficient zone defense: Syracuse
3. Team that is big with a great point guard: UNC

is will Duke play as a TEAM? Will the staff get the most out of the talent?

SoCal

[The Gordog]

Here was what I wrote down (before Andre announced) as prediction for minutes last year at this time and then the actuals after the names:

30 Cook 29.8
31 Sulu 25.6
31 Hood 32.9
31 Parker 30.7
15 MP3 8.5
25 Jefferson 22.7
27 Tyler 21.3
5 Hairston 9.5
5 Murphy 6.6
Dawkins 13.7
Jones 7.3
Semi 4.7
Nick 1.7
Todd 1.3

So clearly forgetting Jones and Semi was a mistake but overall not a terrible showing.

Her's my prediction for the coming season:

T Jones 30
Sulu 30
Jefferson 28
Winslow 26
Okafor 27
Cook 18
MP3 13
M Jones 10
Semi 8
Allen 6
Nick 2

Can't wait to get started!

[sagegrouse]

Here was what I wrote down (before Andre announced) as prediction for minutes last year at this time and then the actuals after the names:

30 Cook 29.8
31 Sulu 25.6
31 Hood 32.9
31 Parker 30.7
15 MP3 8.5
25 Jefferson 22.7
27 Tyler 21.3
5 Hairston 9.5
5 Murphy 6.6
Dawkins 13.7
Jones 7.3
Semi 4.7
Nick 1.7
Todd 1.3

So clearly forgetting Jones and Semi was a mistake but overall not a terrible showing.

Her's my prediction for the coming season:

T Jones 30
Sulu 30
Jefferson 28
Winslow 26
Okafor 27
Cook 18
MP3 13
M Jones 10
Semi 8
Allen 6
Nick 2

Can't wait to get started!

A kindly reminder before the stat guys with the sharp knives show up. You should take a players total minutes and divide by the number of Duke games. As it is, your numbers total 216 per game because of DNPs and greatly overstate the court time of Murphy, Semi, Nick and Todd.

[ACCBBallFan]

Gordo, despite your accuracy the prior year, I can't see Quinn dropping form 30 MPG the past 2 years to 18 next year.

If you start by giving T Jones all of Tyler's 21.3 MPG and Dre's 13.7 that's 35 MPG, so 5 left to spread among others without tapping into Quinn's minutes at all, so you can also cover Sheed's increase.

Though they play different positions Parker and Okafor are a wash in MPG and #1 rating and Josh's minutes can account for MP3's and for Amile's increased PT. This is feasible since Amikle is now at his natural PF position.

That still leaves Rodney's minutes to spread around to Justise and Matt's increased PT.

Semi and Grayson Allen wiill have to earn PT from someone above plus Alex's minutes are deceptive since he played so few games, ditto for Semi.

Though it's only 2 MPG, I would not try to account for any minutes for Nick at expense of 9 Mickey D's PT.

Given past history you can probably assign minutes to top 8 and treat others as breakage with exception there may not be anyone else besides Semi to sub in for Amile unless Okafor is so dominant that for a few MPG coach K can get by with Justise at PF and 3 guards.