Marcus Paige returning to "school"

[wk2109]

Jeff Goodman ‏@GoodmanESPN 54m

UNC star coming back. @marcuspaige5: Time to move on and focus on improving this offseason. Next year has a chance to be special!

I don't know about you all but I'm not too surprised.

I hope Rasheed can step up and outplay Paige next season. Rasheed was more highly regarded coming out of high school (#12 vs. #28 RSCI) and put up better numbers during their freshman year.

[BlueDevilBrowns]

I don't know about you all but I'm not too surprised.

I hope Rasheed can step up and outplay Paige next season. Rasheed was more highly regarded coming out of high school (#12 vs. #28 RSCI) and put up better numbers during their freshman year.

Well, that sucks for next year.

But, actually, not in the big-picture of things.

Why, you ask?

Well, I think one reason(the other is the rise of UK) why UNC recruiting has suffered the last few years is because many elite recruits don't see UNC as a viable option for a 1 year college experience.

They've seen numbers of guys - HB, E. Davis, JMM, PJ, Henson, and Hicks(maybe I'm missing a couple) come to UNC and stay longer than expected. Then, if they decide to leave early, they get half-hearted support(see Bullock, Reggie) from their Coach who, of course, is only looking out for their best interest after talking with his countless NBA contacts.

So, while this will no doubt help UNC greatly next year, it may further promote the feeling that UNC isn't a place for the "1 and done", or at the least, isn't a "leave on your terms" environment.

[Henderson]

Smart move for Paige. Not such good news for other ACC teams.

But the title of this post has to change. "Marcus Paige returning to unc-ch" maybe.

[InSpades]

Smart move for Paige. Not such good news for other ACC teams.

But the title of this post has to change. "Marcus Paige returning to unc-ch" maybe.

Paige was 2nd team academic All-America this year. I'm guessing that involved going to school a bit :).

http://www.goheels.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=3350&ATCLID=209412661

Definitely not good news for the rest of the ACC, he can play a bit.

[DBFAN]

I for one couldn't care less about Marcus Paige. My reason is a young man named Tyus Jones. Yeah Paige had a great year, but outside of Ennis, where was there any other competition. I sure as heck am not one bit worried about Sheed. With Jones and Cook getting him the ball, and Sheed being more comfortable back where he was his Freshman year, and add Okafor down low, preventing teams from going zone all the time, you have a recipe for a much better balanced team next year. Just go ahead and put it down on paper, next years team is gonna be a filthy team, out to prove a lot of people wrong

[wk2109]

I don't know about you all but I'm not too surprised.

I hope Rasheed can step up and outplay Paige next season. Rasheed was more highly regarded coming out of high school (#12 vs. #28 RSCI) and put up better numbers during their freshman year.

Man I wish I was the one who thought of adding quotes around "school." Brilliant.

[#1Duke]

Well, that sucks for next year.

But, actually, not in the big-picture of things.

Why, you ask?

Well, I think one reason(the other is the rise of UK) why UNC recruiting has suffered the last few years is because many elite recruits don't see UNC as a viable option for a 1 year college experience.

They've seen numbers of guys - HB, E. Davis, JMM, PJ, Henson, and Hicks(maybe I'm missing a couple) come to UNC and stay longer than expected. Then, if they decide to leave early, they get half-hearted support(see Bullock, Reggie) from their Coach who, of course, is only looking out for their best interest after talking with his countless NBA contacts.

So, while this will no doubt help UNC greatly next year, it may further promote the feeling that UNC isn't a place for the "1 and done", or at the least, isn't a "leave on your terms" environment.

We have had discussions on the one and done player/recruit/ scheme here. Maybe Roy isn't a fan of one and done players…… could be that simple. He has shown an ability to get players to stay like Lawson and Hansbrough.

[DBFAN]

Man I wish I was the one who thought of adding quotes around "school." Brilliant.

I was thinking the same thing..absolutely brilliant

[UrinalCake]

I still think of Paige as a shooting guard trapped in a point guard's body. Will be interesting to see what they do with him next year with Berry coming in, who is supposed to be really good. Will they move Paige to the 2? He'll score a TON of points, but I also would imagine he wants to develop PG skills for the next level.

[mapleleafdevil]

Count me as one who gets way more satisfaction out of beating a highly regarded and ranked unc team over a marginal one. Welcome back Marcus.

[BD80]

Man I wish I was the one who thought of adding quotes around "school." Brilliant.

I find it snarky, demeaning, and arrogant.

In other words: brilliant. Kudos.

[Indoor66]

Well, that sucks for next year.

But, actually, not in the big-picture of things.

Why, you ask?

Well, I think one reason(the other is the rise of UK) why UNC recruiting has suffered the last few years is because many elite recruits don't see UNC as a viable option for a 1 year college experience.

They've seen numbers of guys - HB, E. Davis, JMM, PJ, Henson, and Hicks(maybe I'm missing a couple) come to UNC and stay longer than expected. Then, if they decide to leave early, they get half-hearted support(see Bullock, Reggie) from their Coach who, of course, is only looking out for their best interest after talking with his countless NBA contacts.

So, while this will no doubt help UNC greatly next year, it may further promote the feeling that UNC isn't a place for the "1 and done", or at the least, isn't a "leave on your terms" environment.

Yeah. That one and done thing has done wonders for Duke. :rolleyes:

[JBDuke]

i was really hoping he'd go pro. Paige is a beast. I think he was the best guard in the ACC this year, and he could really carry the Heels - too often to victory for my liking. I'm not one that likes Carolina to be a strong partner in the rivalry - I'd love to see their program tailspin into mediocrity - so I was really hoping he'd leave.

C'mon Marcus! Your draft stock will never be higher! You've got a few weeks to change your mind!

[Atlanta Duke]

Yeah. That one and done thing has done wonders for Duke. :rolleyes:

Based upon a previous post in the thread, the term apparently is no longer one and done - it is "the one year college experience"

If that term does not get traction maybe one and done can be called College Lite instead

[Matches]

i was really hoping he'd go pro. Paige is a beast. I think he was the best guard in the ACC this year, and he could really carry the Heels - too often to victory for my liking. I'm not one that likes Carolina to be a strong partner in the rivalry - I'd love to see their program tailspin into mediocrity - so I was really hoping he'd leave.



Unfortunately - at least unfortunately for us - Paige is one of those guys who is a gangbusters college player but an iffy pro prospect. There's every chance we'll be dealing with this guy for two more seasons.

He reminds me a lot of Steph Curry, who clearly has become a dynamite pro but about whom NBA teams had a lot of question marks due to his size and lack of elite athleticism. Hopefully they've all learned from the Curry Experience and will jump on the Paige Bandwagon after next season.

[Steven43]

I for one couldn't care less about Marcus Paige.I'm not sure you are appreciating just how good this guy is, and how much better he might be by next season. His decision to stay in college gives UNC a real chance to beat Duke next year, whereas without him their chances would have been slim, I think. The guy is a stone cold killer on the court, a true difference-maker. We have to figure out a way to slow him down when the game is on the line or he will beat us.

[weezie]

Is he hoping to perfect his Swahili accent?

[Kedsy]

We have to figure out a way to slow him down when the game is on the line or he will beat us.

Yeah, because so far he's beaten us once in four tries.

[CDu]

Yeah, because so far he's beaten us once in four tries.

Well, as a freshman, he was pretty low on the UNC team totem pole. And he was a MUCH different (less confident) player as a freshman. So I think it is more fair to say he's beaten us once in two tries this year. And he did so this year with a less talented team.

I think the point is valid. He's proven this year that he's capable of almost single-handedly beating teams. We've shown an impressive knack for poor defense this year. Next year, when (presumably) the whole team returns and (presumably) continues to improve around him, we're going to absolutely need to be sure to be able to contain him if we want to win.

[Kedsy]

Well, as a freshman, he was pretty low on the UNC team totem pole. And he was a MUCH different (less confident) player as a freshman. So I think it is more fair to say he's beaten us once in two tries this year. And he did so this year with a less talented team.

I think the point is valid. He's proven this year that he's capable of almost single-handedly beating teams. We've shown an impressive knack for poor defense this year. Next year, when (presumably) the whole team returns and (presumably) continues to improve around him, we're going to absolutely need to be sure to be able to contain him if we want to win.

As a freshman he was UNC's starting PG (started 34 games). Unless by low on the totem pole you mean he wasn't the primary scoring option, which I agree, but he was still a big part of the team.

I agree Paige is a really good player, and he seems to raise his play a notch in the second half and end of games. But Steph Curry? (Not you, someone earlier in the thread.) Come on.

[UrinalCake]

Yeah he made a big jump from freshman to sophomore year. It actually started the end of his freshman year, he shot really well the last 10 or so games. Coming into this season UNC fans said he'd be better than Cook and we all laughed it off like they were crazy....

Good for him for staying, but personally I was hoping for a Joe Forte-style terrible decision to leave.

[CDu]

As a freshman he was UNC's starting PG (started 34 games). Unless by low on the totem pole you mean he wasn't the primary scoring option, which I agree, but he was still a big part of the team.

I agree Paige is a really good player, and he seems to raise his play a notch in the second half and end of games. But Steph Curry? (Not you, someone earlier in the thread.) Come on.

Yeah, I meant that he was low on the scorer's totem pole. He wasn't the primary, secondary, or even tertiary scoring option that team as a freshman.

And I definitely don't think he was anywhere near Curry level. But there's plenty of room between Curry level and "don't need to gameplan for how to contain him in order to win."

[DBFAN]

I'm not sure you are appreciating just how good this guy is, and how much better he might be by next season. His decision to stay in college gives UNC a real chance to beat Duke next year, whereas without him their chances would have been slim, I think. The guy is a stone cold killer on the court, a true difference-maker. We have to figure out a way to slow him down when the game is on the line or he will beat us.

Now I agree with you that it gives them a better chance and without him they would not be in as good of shape. I am just in disagreement with some on here, FB, and the Twitter world that are already crowning UNC the ACC champs. I just have a feeling that Jones and Okafor are gonna make a huge difference for this team. And because of them Sheed is gonna return to form, because of the simple fact that the floor will open up. I am also one of these people that don't fully believe that Parker being a freshman was the main prob. The prob to me was the lack of balance on the floor. Allowing teams to just pack it in on the defensive side, and just constantly go inside on offense.

Of course I refuse to give credit to UNC for anything they do ;)

[Reilly]

I find it snarky ...

How so? "School" is literally in the name of the institution: http://ges.chccs.k12.nc.us/

[BlueDevilCorvette!]

I'm not sure you are appreciating just how good this guy is, and how much better he might be by next season. His decision to stay in college gives UNC a real chance to beat Duke next year, whereas without him their chances would have been slim, I think. The guy is a stone cold killer on the court, a true difference-maker. We have to figure out a way to slow him down when the game is on the line or he will beat us.

Oh wow, if Paige is a stone cold killer on the court, I guess Duke need to serve him with a summons of Jus-tise! Especially if Paige primarily plays SG next season. Then put Sheed on whomever plays point for UNC and that should be a very solid perimeter defense! (knock-on-wood)

[cato]

Yeah. That one and done thing has done wonders for Duke. :rolleyes:

Corey Maggette and Luol Deng were one-and-done players who had legitimate shots to win an NC. If Kyrie Irving hadn't broken his toe, who knows?

Perhaps I'm missing your point.

[gus]

Remember the good old days when sanctimonious Carolina fans would say that Dean would never let a player stay if he's ready for the pros, because he *cares* about his players (usually in context of Duke players staying four years).

[The Gordog]

Corey Maggette and Luol Deng were one-and-done players who had legitimate shots to win an NC. If Kyrie Irving hadn't broken his toe, who knows?

Perhaps I'm missing your point.

Maggette and Deng were before the on and done rule. LeBron was in the same HS class as Deng, remember. Our on and dones have been:

Kyrie, Rivers and Parker. None of them has led us past the Sweet 16.

[cato]

Maggette and Deng were before the on and done rule. LeBron was in the same HS class as Deng, remember. Our on and dones have been:

Kyrie, Rivers and Parker. None of them has led us past the Sweet 16.

Under any reasonable understanding of the term "one and done", Maggette and Deng certainly qualify. You are just cherry-picking if you try to come up with a definition that includes that latter three (assuming Parker actually goes pro), but excludes the first two.

Even taking your constructed definition, you have to treat Kyrie differently than Rivers and Parker, simply based upon playing time.

So, you're down to two cases (again, assuming Parker goes pro). Not exactly a big sample size.

That said, I agree that, from the outside, there were some very troubling signs throughout the season for both teams. Putting aside all of the chatter about how Rivers was a poor teammate, it certainly seemed to be the case that neither team came together and played excellent team basketball for an extended period. That may indeed be the result of having the most talented (or, at least hyped) player on the team be a freshman.

As good as Maggette and Deng were, neither were in the position that Kyre, Rivers or Parker were -- not necessarily because of their ability, but because of the ability of more experienced players on the team. Elton was the man on that 99 juggernaut. Deng had Duhon, who has started on an NC team, and JJ Redick to fill roles that were absent on the team during Rivers' and Parker's freshman years.

I think the focus on "one-and-done" is misguided. The key, as it always has been, is blending the talent into a team. You can't win on freshman talent alone. No one ever has. However, it can certainly push you over the edge if you mix that freshman talent into the right team.

So, all that said, I'm interested to see how next year plays out, but my expectations are tempered. I don't see the new talent mixing especially well with the experience, particularly on the perimeter. But maybe Cook and Sheed will find a place they didn't find this year, and the ship will be steadied.

[UrinalCake]

As good as Maggette and Deng were, neither were in the position that Kyre, Rivers or Parker were -- not necessarily because of their ability, but because of the ability of more experienced players on the team.

Totally agree with your post but would also point out that Kyrie had Nolan and Kyle to handle the leadership on his team. And defensively we could also make up for his weaknesses because the other guys were so solid. I think that's the biggest difference with Rivers and Parker - we expected them to carry our teams and to build the teams around them. That's just too much to ask of a freshman, especially in the post season where the stakes are higher and the value of experience goes up a hundredfold.

[cato]

Totally agree with your post but would also point out that Kyrie had Nolan and Kyle to handle the leadership on his team. And defensively we could also make up for his weaknesses because the other guys were so solid. I think that's the biggest difference with Rivers and Parker - we expected them to carry our teams and to build the teams around them. That's just too much to ask of a freshman, especially in the post season where the stakes are higher and the value of experience goes up a hundredfold.

You are absolutely correct. In fact, Nolan seemed to be the rare leader willing to step aside for the new star, while still holding down a major role on the team (at the 2).

Of course, by the time Kyrie returned, Nolan had again transformed his game and role, and the team no longer fit together as a whole.

Sigh. What could have been.

[Li_Duke]

Maggette and Deng were before the on and done rule. LeBron was in the same HS class as Deng, remember. Our on and dones have been:

Kyrie, Rivers and Parker. None of them has led us past the Sweet 16.

If you were to fit a model for early NCAA exit with one-and-done(s) and star senior(s), you'd have the following data points since 1999 (chosen because it was the first year of one-and-done(s) at Duke).
1999 - one-and-done(s): yes; star senior(s): yes; sweet 16+: yes
2000 - one-and-done(s): no; star senior(s): yes; sweet 16+: yes
2001 - one-and-done(s): no; star senior(s): yes; sweet 16+: yes
2002 - one-and-done(s): no; star senior(s): yes; sweet 16+: yes (I count early graduate Jay Williams as a senior)
2003 - one-and-done(s): no; star senior(s): yes; sweet 16+: yes
2004 - one-and-done(s): yes; star senior(s): yes; sweet 16+: yes
2005 - one-and-done(s): no; star senior(s): yes; sweet 16+: yes
2006 - one-and-done(s): no; star senior(s): yes; sweet 16+: yes
2007 - one-and-done(s): no; star senior(s): no; sweet 16+: no
2008 - one-and-done(s): no; star senior(s): yes; sweet 16+: no
2009 - one-and-done(s): no; star senior(s): no; sweet 16+: yes
2010 - one-and-done(s): no; star senior(s): yes; sweet 16+: yes
2011 - one-and-done(s): yes; star senior(s): yes; sweet 16+: yes
2012 - one-and-done(s): yes; star senior(s): no; sweet 16+: no
2013 - one-and-done(s): no; star senior(s): yes; sweet 16+: yes
2014 - one-and-done(s): yes; star senior(s): no; sweet 16+: no

Note that I loosely defined star senior(s) as those making any All-ACC team as a senior.

Frequencies:
Among one-and-done(s), 2/5 years resulted in not making the round of 16.
Among no star senior(s), 3/4 years resulted in not making the round of 16.

Univariate logistic models:
Early exit (modeling sweet 16+: no) and one-and-done(s): beta is 1.1 (p-value=0.36)
Early exit (modeling sweet 16+: no) and star senior(s): beta is -3.5 (p-value=0.025)

Multivariate logistic model for early exit:
One-and-done: 0.66 (p=0.68)
star seniors: -3.4 (p=0.03)

So statistically, we find lacking star seniors matter a lot more (statistically significantly so) then one-and-done(s) in whether Duke exits the tourney early.

*Also posted this in the other related thread.