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CDu
03-21-2014, 02:40 PM
Well, first I'll reiterate the thanks to the seniors. They gave everything they had to Duke. Two of them got to be with a national champion. The other two were on a few very good teams that just happened to fall short of expectations. But they bled Duke blue and gave it everything they had, and for that I thank them.

That being said, I want to move on from today's game as quickly as possible and think ahead. What do we have to work with, what do we have to work on, how can we make changes to avoid repeating this awful outcome?

The obvious problem we face is that we were a very bad defensive team this year. Sure, for stretches, we played some terrific, smothering defense. But for even longer stretches we were an absolute mess on defense. That has to change. Can Cook and Sulaimon become better on-ball defenders? Can Jones improve offensively to the point that his defensive prowess can be utilized? Can Ojeleye and Jefferson each improve defensively, using their length and/or athleticism at the PF spot? Will the tandem of Okafor and plumlee at center provide a good defensive presence? Lots of questions.

And then there are the two stars of the team: Hood and Parker. It's very disappointing that things ended with them throwing up clunkers, but sometimes that is how it goes. I suspect Hood is going to go pro. I think there is a microscopically better chance that Parker comes back under the Harrison Barnes "unfinished business" mindset. But I suspect he goes, too.

So in all likelihood, we'll have:
C: Okafor, Plumlee
PF: Jefferson, Ojeleye
SF: Winslow, T. Jones
SG: Sulaimon, Allen
PG: T. Jones, Cook

So we'll suddenly go from being a fairly tall team on the wings but smallish inside to a very big team inside but smallish on the perimeter (especially if we go with the T. Jones/Cook/Sulaimon pairing for long stretches). Quite a change in dynamic.

We should be a more versatile team next year with Okafor's post game and T. Jones' playmaking ability. We'll still have some good outside shooters in Sulaimon and Cook, and maybe M. Jones will find his stroke again with more PT. But the real question will again be defense. Can next year's team defend MUCH better than this year's team? Because if not, there's a real possibility that we face a similar fate.

GGLC
03-21-2014, 02:42 PM
I still think that Tyus and Quinn are both likely starters, along with Rasheed, Amile, and Jahlil. (Assuming Jabari doesn't return.)

If Amile can work on a short jumper over the offseason, he has the potential to be an unstoppable third option on offense. And if Matt can adjust his offensive game to the collegiate level, he can earn major minutes as one of the best defenders on the team.

Would like to see Amile, Rasheed, and Quinn step up big time in leadership roles, too.

luburch
03-21-2014, 02:48 PM
As much as I want to, I can't think about next season just yet. Maybe once the tournament is over. But for now it's just too painful.

flyingdutchdevil
03-21-2014, 02:55 PM
...but happy to use it now!

Next year is interesting. Like you, I am assuming that Hood and Parker are gone. It only makes sense. Hood's stock is at an all-time high right now (hopefully this last game didn't do anything to his stock, but you can never be certain) and, if he comes back, his short comings may be even more pronounced: terrible D, mediocre rebounding, and not very clutch. He's a solid lottery pick right now, and at age 21, he's old for a lottery pick. Parker? Well, he can't learn much more on the O end. On the D end? He's a massive liability. And I think the NBA can teach him more about D than 1 coach, 3 assistants, and limited exposure to them due to NCAA regulations.

Like you said, we're gonna be big. Okafor is ginormous. MP3 will be a natural senior / redshirt junior and hopefully injury free. Jefferson will be able to play his natural position at the 4. And Semi will be Semi, ie a man-child. Our guards are also a fairly known commodity. Sulaimon is a great 3pt shooter, plays decent defense, is a good penetrator, and is an emotional leader. Cook is a really good 3pt shooter, a great ball-handler, a good passer, a decent 3pt shooter, and a mediocre/bad defender. These are our two leaders, and I would like to see them improve their D and decision-making.

That leaves Matt Jones and Semi, two players with limited minutes. Matt Jones is unique because he is a D first guy with limited O (btw, how did Matt Jones get known as the best shooter in the 2013 class but somehow lost the ability to shoot in college?). Semi has the best body on the team but is still learning the game. I'm expecting insane improvement from both. But how much is the question.

As for the freshman? No idea. Okafor will start from Day 1 unless MP3 turns in Dwight Howard. Tyus Jones will either start from Day 1, displace Quinn Cook, or play 25-30 min of the bench (I honestly could see any of these. Quinn and Jones are more similar than we think). Grayson is talented but has too many players in front of him. Winslow could do damage, especially as a D first guy.

I don't know what starting line-ups are gonna look like, but I can absolutely, 100% make the following accurate statements:

1) Our D will be better. In the case of Hood and Parker leaving, it is addition by subtraction on the D end. Both have been pretty awful on D (O is another story. They have been beautiful on that end).
2) Our D efficiency will be higher than our O efficiency. I see Coach K going vintage Coach K: Defense over offense. After seeing how this team fared, and knowing that there isn't an offensive juggernaut next year, it only makes sense to reprioritize defense.
3) Sulaimon will start. He is our best returning offensive and defensive player who had consistent minutes.

Outside of that, I'm lost.

CDu
03-21-2014, 02:57 PM
I still think that Tyus and Quinn are both likely starters, along with Rasheed, Amile, and Jahlil. (Assuming Jabari doesn't return.)

If Amile can work on a short jumper over the offseason, he has the potential to be an unstoppable third option on offense. And if Matt can adjust his offensive game to the collegiate level, he can earn major minutes as one of the best defenders on the team.

Would like to see Amile, Rasheed, and Quinn step up big time in leadership roles, too.

Yeah, I suspect we will go with a 3-guard lineup unless Winslow is just so outstanding that he forces a starting spot. If that happens, then Cook goes to the bench (he was benched this year; no reason to assume it won't happen next year).

I am going to hope against hope that Parker decides to come back. If he returns, we are unbelievably loaded at every position. Not to mention that he's a perfect complement to Okafor inside, whereas Jefferson's game becomes a little trickier with Okafor on the floor. But even if Parker does not stay (and my expectation is that he will not stay), we are really really loaded at every spot. But it just puts a bit more pressure on Jefferson and Ojeleye to continue to improve.

But again, I think it will all come back to defense. Sulaimon and Cook need to improve their quickness on the perimeter (both are fairly fast, but seem to have "heavy feet" when trying to move laterally on defense). Jefferson and Plumlee need to get better as defenders on the interior (though I think the return to PF will help Jefferson a lot next year). And we have to hope that the freshmen are ready to play defense (which, as we know from this season, is no guarantee).

Kedsy
03-21-2014, 03:17 PM
Well, first I'll reiterate the thanks to the seniors. They gave everything they had to Duke. Two of them got to be with a national champion. The other two were on a few very good teams that just happened to fall short of expectations. But they bled Duke blue and gave it everything they had, and for that I thank them.

Well said.



We should be a more versatile team next year with Okafor's post game and T. Jones' playmaking ability. We'll still have some good outside shooters in Sulaimon and Cook, and maybe M. Jones will find his stroke again with more PT. But the real question will again be defense. Can next year's team defend MUCH better than this year's team? Because if not, there's a real possibility that we face a similar fate.

I agree, but I'm hopeful our D will be much better. A lot, of course, depends on how good the freshmen are defensively. But Justise comes in with a reputation as a strong defender, and combining him with Rasheed and Matt should give us pretty strong D on the perimeter. Amile has been a reasonably strong defender. And if nothing else, Jahlil and Marshall should be intimidating presences inside. Assuming they can all rotate properly and work together as a team on D, it would give Quinn (and Tyus, but I really have no idea what to expect from him, defensively) a chance to do what he does best and freelance/go for steals. (Though I also thought Quinn did a tremendous job today guarding Hall.)

I think our offense should be a typically strong Duke top 10 offense as well. For me, the key question will be can we overcome our youth/inexperience. Obviously we've had a little bit of trouble in recent years when our best player is a freshman. I'm hopeful that we will be able to overcome it, but only time will tell.

Kedsy
03-21-2014, 03:20 PM
K will not take a team dominated by freshman deep in the tournament. It's not going to happen. If Parker leaves we're looking at the Sweet 16 as a best case scenario.

And you know this because of the vast sample of freshman-dominated teams Coach K has failed to take deep into the tournament?

CDu
03-21-2014, 03:21 PM
It's kind of hard to be optimistic about next season at all. We just lost to Mercer with a likely NBA all star on our team. K will not take a team dominated by freshman deep in the tournament. It's not going to happen. If Parker leaves we're looking at the Sweet 16 as a best case scenario.

In terms of experience, we may actually play with a bit more experience next year. Presumably Plumlee will expand his minutes a bit from the ~8 mpg he got this year (probably to the 12-15 mpg range). Sulaimon, Jefferson, and Cook should all see their minutes up around 30 mpg. That means that over half of our minutes would be played by upperclassmen. And presumably Jones and Ojeleye would see more time as well. Yes, we'll likely have three freshman factor prominently in the rotation. But having 3 freshmen doesn't mean we can't succeed. We had a Final Four caliber team in 2000 with just 3 freshman and just 3 returning players (none stars at the time). And that was back before early entry had completely decimated the top programs.

I'm not saying it won't be a challenge to implement 3 freshmen. But I just don't think it's a death knell for next year. And I don't think "youth" was the reason this team struggled. Heck, two of our three freshmen didn't even play much this year.

CDu
03-21-2014, 03:31 PM
Well said.

I agree, but I'm hopeful our D will be much better. A lot, of course, depends on how good the freshmen are defensively. But Justise comes in with a reputation as a strong defender, and combining him with Rasheed and Matt should give us pretty strong D on the perimeter. Amile has been a reasonably strong defender. And if nothing else, Jahlil and Marshall should be intimidating presences inside. Assuming they can all rotate properly and work together as a team on D, it would give Quinn (and Tyus, but I really have no idea what to expect from him, defensively) a chance to do what he does best and freelance/go for steals. (Though I also thought Quinn did a tremendous job today guarding Hall.)

I think our offense should be a typically strong Duke top 10 offense as well. For me, the key question will be can we overcome our youth/inexperience. Obviously we've had a little bit of trouble in recent years when our best player is a freshman. I'm hopeful that we will be able to overcome it, but only time will tell.

No disagreement here. I am hopeful that Winslow is as good as advertised as a "glue guy/defender". If so, he would join Jones as really imposing, smothering perimeter defenders. Sulaimon is a little different. He's either slow to react or not very quick afoot, but I feel like he gets beaten off the dribble more than he should for a guy who tries as hard as he does defensively. Hopefully with another year he'll get better at it and give us a third lockdown defender.

I definitely think that Jefferson moving back to PF (and presumably being able to play more helpside defense and crash the glass rather than play post defense) will help him as a defender. He did a solid job for much of the season despite being outsized by nearly everybody he faced. Hopefully going down a size will help him.

And as you alluded, we're absolutely going to have 35+ mpg with a BIG guy on the floor. Okafor is not as tall as Plumlee, but he is every bit as big and strong. And Plumlee should only get better as he gets more experience and further removed from his injuries. So for the first time since the late-90s, we could have two wide-body type big men (assuming Marshall puts on a few more pounds of muscle) to guard the lane.

I've seen Jones play, and he is the real deal on offense. He hasn't been asked to do much on defense in the games I've seen. But again, if we're really strong on the wings and in the paint, then he and Cook can maybe play the "ballhawk" role and not be a liability.

And I'm eager to see what the offseason brings for Matt Jones and Ojeleye. Jones was supposed to be a terrific shooter, but clearly he was awful at it this year in limited time. Perhaps now that he's no longer a freshman and can maybe get some more minutes, hopefully he'll find his stroke? And with Ojeleye, there is just SO much athleticism that I hope he can find his way into the rotation as a backup PF next year. He could provide quite the change of pace from Jefferson, in just about every way.

dukelifer
03-21-2014, 03:35 PM
In terms of experience, we may actually play with a bit more experience next year. Presumably Plumlee will expand his minutes a bit from the ~8 mpg he got this year (probably to the 12-15 mpg range). Sulaimon, Jefferson, and Cook should all see their minutes up around 30 mpg. That means that over half of our minutes would be played by upperclassmen. And presumably Jones and Ojeleye would see more time as well. Yes, we'll likely have three freshman factor prominently in the rotation. But having 3 freshmen doesn't mean we can't succeed. We had a Final Four caliber team in 2000 with just 3 freshman and just 3 returning players (none stars at the time). And that was back before early entry had completely decimated the top programs.

I'm not saying it won't be a challenge to implement 3 freshmen. But I just don't think it's a death knell for next year. And I don't think "youth" was the reason this team struggled. Heck, two of our three freshmen didn't even play much this year.

I agree- not really youth but being "clutch" or handling pressure moments. You need your best players to play the best at end of games. That is just the way it is. That can be a Freshman (as it was with Syracuse) or a senior (as with Creighton). Great players have to play great in the winning time- that is rule number one of advancing in the tourney. It is very possible to have a team where the most talented players don't perform best at the end of games. But when you have one of those guys- great things are possible.

Saratoga2
03-21-2014, 03:40 PM
Since we aren't allowed to comment on the tournament game, I will approach next years team from the perspective of a person past his 73rd birthday with many many seasons of watching Duke do it's thing.

What i saw in Quinn today was a great performance who nearly willed us into a win. He played good defense and took what the defense gave him. Ditto with Rasheed for the most part. Maybe he tried too hard at the end, but these two are a very solid guard duo to lead the team next year. If Tyus is anywhere near as good as expected, we will be very solid at PG and have Matt and Grayson to play both defense and score. We talked of playing pressure defense this year with our abundance of guards but that seldom worked so perhaps coach K needs to rethink how to handle such a gifted bunch of kids.

At wing we will have Justise and perhaps Semi. I felt Semi was the forgotten and unused man this year but what little I saw of him was positive. Oh well, I am sure the coaches saw some reason why he needed to sit out virtually the entire season.

Inside we will have Jahlil, a massive but inexperienced big man to probably start. It is hard to see him getting more than 25 minutes as it is a tiring assignment inside. I hope that they will find a way to broaden Marshall's role to include some offense as he should get at least 20 minutes a game while Amile is an established power forward who probably needs to add about 15 pounds to improve his effectiveness on defense.

It should be a good team but with some of the key players being freshmen, not a dominant one. Of course others may leave or stay so we have a wait before we learn how we will go forward. Will it still be the motion offense and man to man defense? Does the sun rise in the east?

bronston22
03-21-2014, 03:52 PM
I can't go there yet - this is just too painful and shocking and this thread is the one that should be blocked for a while. It's like a widower dating while her spouse still has red mud on his grave:)

Unfortunately we are in an NBA type scenario of a great regular seasons that now mean little because our post seasons have been pretty weak over the last 9 years. Aaaagh. I am going away for a while.

dukelifer
03-21-2014, 03:53 PM
I can't go there yet - this is just too painful and shocking and this thread is the one that should be blocked for a while. It's like a widower dating while her spouse still has red mud on his grave:)

Unfortunately we are in an NBA type scenario of a great regular seasons that now mean little because our post seasons have been pretty weak over the last 9 years. Aaaagh. I am going away for a while.

yes- the 2010 championship - four years ago- was very weak.

SCMatt33
03-21-2014, 04:01 PM
I'm still greatly worried about the defense next year. There will be some things that will be improved, but still a lot that could go wrong. The biggest improvement will likely be in defensive rebounding, with Okafor taking over the middle and Jefferson sliding over to a more natural position, you will have an excellent rebounding tandem on the floor. That's a huge help, but certainly not a cure-all. From what I've read, defense is one of Okafor's areas that needs some improvment, so I don't have any visions of him taking over a game like Anthony Davis any time soon. Likewise, I expect that we'll see three freshman in the rotation next year (I think Allen will end up getting Matt Jones type minutes), and given that the coaching staff has not done a great job with bringing freshmen up to speed on the defensive scheme the last few years, I don't expect any of them to end up on an all-ACC defensive team. Likewise, the returning guards have not been the best on ball defenders with any consistent basis and have really struggled at forcing turnovers, which is a big deal when you're going to pressure off the ball as well as on the ball outside the three point line. I would hope that with a more traditional 4-5 pairing in the middle, we could see the defense back off a bit and force a few more contested jumpers since we'll probably be able to rebound them. This would also help the rotation issues that Duke has had with guys not recognizing quick enough to recover from far away.

My gut says that this won't end up being the case, and if it's not, we'll really need to see the forced turnover numbers tick up well over 20% if you want a top-25 defense next year.

I do see another fairly dominant offense in our future, though it would help a lot if Matt Jones could find his jump shot over the summer.

FerryFor50
03-21-2014, 04:03 PM
yes- the 2010 championship - four years ago- was very weak.

And last year... making the Elite 8 and losing to the eventual champions... weak.

I think Parker comes back. I think Hood is gone. And I think Okafor helps the defense get immensely better.

gumbomoop
03-21-2014, 04:06 PM
Though I don't think we'll start the season with small ball, I could easily see a pattern against some opponents with Tyus, Quinn, Rasheed, Justise/Semi, and Jahlil/Marshall. If no small ball, period, will be interesting to see how the 80 minutes at the 1 and 2 develop over the season. Although 27 minutes each for Quinn, Rasheed, and Tyus makes sense prospectively, each of those 3 might merit 30+ mpg, which by definition means at least short stretches of perimeter small ball.

I don't need convincing that Tyus will be excellent from the beginning. Quinn and Rasheed can be strong 3-bombers, and Rasheed, at least, a threat long, mid, and driving, the last if he works on his handle, strength, and balance/body control. Wonder how determined he will be to become a truly excellent player.....

Seems likely that both Duke and UNC will play 2 small guards a lot of the time next season. Hope Quinn improves on-ball D, and that Tyus takes to D pretty quickly.

Should Jabari return, everything changes. I'll guess 20% chance.

ETA: OK, 25%: "After the game, however, [Parker] told Andy Katz of ESPN.com that his career is incomplete and that could affect his decision about whether to return to Duke for another season. He then added that the emotion of this loss could sway him." [ESPN web game recap]

OZ
03-21-2014, 04:23 PM
I've never liked the phrase "next play"...


...but happy to use it now!


Honestly, I was thinking the exact same thing. That phrase is often used following a painfully frustrating loss and it usually simply irritates me more. But today, that was the first thought that came to mind. That one AND this one....

I am ready for me some football...

FerryFor50
03-21-2014, 04:30 PM
ETA: OK, 25%: "After the game, however, [Parker] told Andy Katz of ESPN.com that his career is incomplete and that could affect his decision about whether to return to Duke for another season. He then added that the emotion of this loss could sway him." [ESPN web game recap]

I'm convinced Parker is closer to 75% returning. But I would imagine he'll wait a bit to announce as he does his research, gets professional opinions and lets the emotion of this loss subside a bit. That's the 25% I worry about.

SoCalDukeFan
03-21-2014, 04:30 PM
Is will we have "IT"?

SoCal

FerryFor50
03-21-2014, 04:33 PM
Is will we have "IT"?

SoCal

Whatever "IT" is, if Jabari comes back, Duke will have it. ;)

timmy c
03-21-2014, 04:39 PM
I'm convinced Parker is closer to 75% returning. But I would imagine he'll wait a bit to announce as he does his research, gets professional opinions and lets the emotion of this loss subside a bit. That's the 25% I worry about.

I tend to think he's probably 75% right now. After he hears from nba surrogates I think he'll be back around 10-20% chance of returning.

JPtheGame
03-21-2014, 04:47 PM
What would he need to talk to the NBA folks about? He's been a top 3 pick forever. People cant seem to get past that mindset but its irrelevant to Jabari. You cannot find a statement from him or his family indicating that draft position has anything to do with his decision. You can find multiple instances across time where Jabari has shown an openness to being at Duke for multiple years. He told Andy Katz his career is incomplete so he'll be back to complete it. Been saying it for months now, he's coming back.

NashvilleDevil
03-21-2014, 04:58 PM
Here's something to consider re: Jabari, the incoming freshmen class is not as loaded as his class. Maybe, just maybe he comes back to play with Jahil and Tyus and then leaves as the consensus 1st pick.

JPtheGame
03-21-2014, 05:03 PM
Next years number one is already spoken for by Jahlil. No reason Duke cant have the top 2 though!

gurufrisbee
03-21-2014, 05:04 PM
I'm thinking Jabari is 90% gone and Hood is 60% gone.

And I think Duke should seriously look at starting OKafor, Amille, Sheed, Cook, and Semi or Justice. Our three guard line ups haven't been working and we keep getting beat on the interior and the boards. I want to see a big team. TJones can come off the bench for a season.

It's impossible to know who will develop in the off season and how much the freshmen will bring to the table. But on a season when we didn't win the ACC, didn't win the confernece tourney, lost in the first round of the NCAA, and lost to an inferior NC team - it HAS to get better.

devilnfla
03-21-2014, 05:11 PM
If both Hood and Parker are gone, that could improve our chances at landing Myles Turner. Hopefully one of those 3 will be on the roster next year.

SoCalDukeFan
03-21-2014, 05:11 PM
with or without Jabari will be very talented. But this year's team has as much talent as anyone and look at where we are.

We had an obvious weakness inside and with Okafor and Plumlee to back him up, that should be addressed. This year we did not have major injury issues, and hopefully that will carry through to next year. I do think the unfortunate death of Bill K greatly affected (understandably) Mike K. Hopefully we have no major distractions next year.

We lose a talented and experienced forward in Rodney, by all accounts. Tyler had some great defensive plays and will be missed. Would love to see Jabari back but am not holding my breathe.

I don't know. Maybe my hopes were too high for this year but I am pretty down right now. Fun to think about the talent. I remember in '92 when K said soemthing like we weren't repeating because its a different team even though most of the main parts were back. Well now every year it really is a different team.


SoCal

Dr. Rosenrosen
03-21-2014, 05:11 PM
K's choice of words during presser make it sound like Jabari and Rodney are gone... how he feels bad for them, talking about how he "loved coaching them" - surely won't be a surprise but it sounds like he is speaking from a point of view where he knows what's coming. We'll see.

duke4ever19
03-21-2014, 05:16 PM
I'm thinking Jabari is 90% gone and Hood is 60% gone.

I would lean toward switching the attribution of those percentages.

I think K has already said in a post-game conference (wasn't it the last UNC game?) that he has Hood for one year. It's interesting that he didn't go as far when talking about Jabari.

Of course, Charles Barkley keeps insisting that Jabari is coming back to Duke for another year. I've heard him say this on both television and on local radio interview (Philadelphia). Not like he's an "insider", but he seems pretty sure about it. I guess this might be a stretch, but I am not above fooling myself after the season ended so unexpectedly.

SoCalDukeFan
03-21-2014, 05:20 PM
I would lean toward switching the attribution of those percentages.

I think K has already said in a post-game conference (wasn't it the last UNC game?) that he has Hood for one year. It's interesting that he didn't go as far when talking about Jabari.

Of course, Charles Barkley keeps insisting that Jabari is coming back to Duke for another year. I've heard him say this on both television and on local radio interview (Philadelphia). Not like he's an "insider", but he seems pretty sure about it.

You don't want to pick Barkley in a spelling bee, says Greg Anthony. Maybe Charles is better at predictions on players coming back.

SoCal

OldPhiKap
03-21-2014, 05:25 PM
It's kind of hard to be optimistic about next season at all. We just lost to Mercer with a likely NBA all star on our team. K will not take a team dominated by freshman deep in the tournament. It's not going to happen. If Parker leaves we're looking at the Sweet 16 as a best case scenario.

Thanks, you just saved me a bunch of time next fall and winter. How does '15-'16 look?

Thanks in advance.

arnie
03-21-2014, 05:32 PM
K's choice of words during presser make it sound like Jabari and Rodney are gone... how he feels bad for them, talking about how he "loved coaching them" - surely won't be a surprise but it sounds like he is speaking from a point of view where he knows what's coming. We'll see.

I don't think there's any chance either Parker or Hood come back, but at least I'm fairly sure K does. He wouldn't leave after this disappointment. I wonder if he might shake things up with his staff. Obviously we didn't get player improvement or cohesiveness he expected. I don't know enough about asst coach roles, but it seems some of the team performance issues have to lie with the staff.

jipops
03-21-2014, 05:33 PM
I'm thinking Jabari is 90% gone and Hood is 60% gone.

And I think Duke should seriously look at starting OKafor, Amille, Sheed, Cook, and Semi or Justice. Our three guard line ups haven't been working and we keep getting beat on the interior and the boards. I want to see a big team. TJones can come off the bench for a season.

It's impossible to know who will develop in the off season and how much the freshmen will bring to the table. But on a season when we didn't win the ACC, didn't win the confernece tourney, lost in the first round of the NCAA, and lost to an inferior NC team - it HAS to get better.

I'm thinking more like:

Hood 100% gone
Parker 99.8% gone (99.9 before today)

Bay Area Duke Fan
03-21-2014, 05:34 PM
I don't think there's any chance either Parker or Hood come back, but at least I'm fairly sure K does. He wouldn't leave after this disappointment. I wonder if he might shake things up with his staff. Obviously we didn't get player improvement or cohesiveness he expected. I don't know enough about asst coach roles, but it seems some of the team performance issues have to lie with the staff.

Loss of Chris Collins hurt.

jipops
03-21-2014, 05:35 PM
I don't think there's any chance either Parker or Hood come back, but at least I'm fairly sure K does. He wouldn't leave after this disappointment. I wonder if he might shake things up with his staff. Obviously we didn't get player improvement or cohesiveness he expected. I don't know enough about asst coach roles, but it seems some of the team performance issues have to lie with the staff.

Why does there have to be a scapegoat?

SoCalDukeFan
03-21-2014, 05:39 PM
I don't think there's any chance either Parker or Hood come back, but at least I'm fairly sure K does. He wouldn't leave after this disappointment. I wonder if he might shake things up with his staff. Obviously we didn't get player improvement or cohesiveness he expected. I don't know enough about asst coach roles, but it seems some of the team performance issues have to lie with the staff.

I still have a thin hope we will see Parker next year. I do agree with you on the coaching. I don't think K and staff had a good year. K gets a pass because he is K and because of his brother's passing. This team seemed to have the same issues all year. Mercer is a good experienced team but we should not lose to them. Maybe we missed Chris Collins. I don't know.

SoCal

arnie
03-21-2014, 05:40 PM
Why does there have to be a scapegoat?

There doesn't - but Duke Basketball is a big business and if goals aren't met in business, changes are often made. Chris Collins' departure may have impacted this season more than we could have realized.

NashvilleDevil
03-21-2014, 05:43 PM
There doesn't - but Duke Basketball is a big business and if goals aren't met in business, changes are often made. Chris Collins' departure may have impacted this season more than we could have realized.

Tyler Thornton is being fitted for suits as we speak for his role as an associate coach next season.

CDu
03-21-2014, 05:54 PM
I'm thinking more like:

Hood 100% gone
Parker 99.8% gone (99.9 before today)

This sounds about right.

dukelifer
03-21-2014, 05:56 PM
And last year... making the Elite 8 and losing to the eventual champions... weak.

I think Parker comes back. I think Hood is gone. And I think Okafor helps the defense get immensely better.

I hope he gives it one more year. Lots of reasons not to stay- but the NBA is not easy for a young kid. Yes players can develop more with 100% time playing ball but I am pretty sure that is not the reality. It is a ton of travel and a long grind of a season. If you are on a bad team- that long grind is even worse. Yes money is nice but even that is inadequate in a world where everyone around you is just as rich or richer. It is clear that right now Jabari is an average NBA forward. He is likely a top pick but the reality hits soon enough. Once in - you need to earn that respect. Jabari is not a transcendent talent- he will have a ton of work ahead of him to even be an all star. Coming back will help him gain confidence and develop on D-but the lure to go is great even if it is really not the best thing to do. You have to feel for these kids. Today's game pressure is nothing compared to that he will feel trying to live up to being a top pick - particularly with the expectations placed on this class.

OldSchool
03-21-2014, 06:01 PM
I don't think there's any chance either Parker or Hood come back, but at least I'm fairly sure K does. He wouldn't leave after this disappointment.

But what if K was told he would be a lottery pick? Still think K would come back?

dukelifer
03-21-2014, 06:01 PM
I still have a thin hope we will see Parker next year. I do agree with you on the coaching. I don't think K and staff had a good year. K gets a pass because he is K and because of his brother's passing. This team seemed to have the same issues all year. Mercer is a good experienced team but we should not lose to them. Maybe we missed Chris Collins. I don't know.

SoCal

Coaching is fine - execution by the players was not. You are up three with a few minutes to go- you need to score and keep them from scoring. The coaches put them in a position to win- but players have to make the plays.

papa whiskey
03-21-2014, 06:10 PM
And you know this because of the vast sample of freshman-dominated teams Coach K has failed to take deep into the tournament?

Just saying... In recent memory with a team heavily reliant on a blue chip, one and done freshman, 1-3. Juniors and seniors who haven't done much in the NBA, 2010 National Champions.

dukelifer
03-21-2014, 06:16 PM
But what if K was told he would be a lottery pick? Still think K would come back?

He makes 3 times what the top pick makes.

J4Kop99
03-21-2014, 06:22 PM
K's choice of words during presser make it sound like Jabari and Rodney are gone... how he feels bad for them, talking about how he "loved coaching them" - surely won't be a surprise but it sounds like he is speaking from a point of view where he knows what's coming. We'll see.

Part of me wishes K would just call these freshman out as a whole. I know he would never do it but he's the one coach that actually has the respect to get away with it. I will focus on Hood and Parker for obvious reasons but these guys have SO much work to do on their respective games. The NBA game is more spaced out so that will help both of these guys but in Jabari's case, he is going to be looked upon to be the face of a franchise and I don't think he is ready for that. One more year would do him a tremendous amount of good. I think Kyrie, mainly because of his position on the court, was in much better shape for the pro game. Playing on the wing and even more importantly, defending the wing, is a much different issue.

High level freshman prospects have serious worries when it comes to staying in school (financial, health, etc) but some of these guys need somebody to tell them the truth. Only a few of them are actually ready to make the jump.

Bay Area Duke Fan
03-21-2014, 06:25 PM
Part of me wishes K would just call these freshman out as a whole. I know he would never do it but he's the one coach that actually has the respect to get away with it. I will focus on Hood and Parker for obvious reasons but these guys have SO much work to do on their respective games. The NBA game is more spaced out so that will help both of these guys but in Jabari's case, he is going to be looked upon to be the face of a franchise and I don't think he is ready for that. One more year would do him a tremendous amount of good. I think Kyrie, mainly because of his position on the court, was in much better shape for the pro game. Playing on the wing and even more importantly, defending the wing, is a much different issue.

High level freshman prospects have serious worries when it comes to staying in school (financial, health, etc) but some of these guys need somebody to tell them the truth. Only a few of them are actually ready to make the jump.

It's all about the money.

OldSchool
03-21-2014, 06:26 PM
He makes 3 times what the top pick makes.

Come on, K is about more than just the benjamins!

Troublemaker
03-21-2014, 06:31 PM
I don't think next year's team will be heavily reliant on freshmen. We could easily start just one freshman:

Sr Cook
Jr Sulaimon
So MJones
Jr Jefferson
Fr Okafor

with Tyus, Justise and Grayson coming off the bench (in addition to other returning players).

The difference between this year's team and next year's team will be the talented upperclassmen of Cook, Sulaimon, and Jefferson. I love this season's upperclassmen and have defended them a bunch during the season, but next season's upperclassmen are going to be more talented, which will help a lot. Coach K has said as much several times this season, that Jabari and Rodney couldn't lean on talented upperclassmen like first-year players in the program should be able to.

OldPhiKap
03-21-2014, 06:31 PM
Come on, K is about more than just the benjamins!

K is multi-denominational.

Don't get me started on Bitcoins.

Troublemaker
03-21-2014, 06:45 PM
The difference between this year's team and next year's team will be the talented upperclassmen of Cook, Sulaimon, and Jefferson.

In fact, I can't even imagine that next preseason, Coach K will announce that two of the freshmen are the best players on the team and Duke will build around them.

It's just extremely unlikely to happen with Quinn and Sheed and Amile around. They're going to be a huge part of the foundation. Jahlil's going to get an opportunity to be eased in, even as a starter. And Duke will be better for it.

theAlaskanBear
03-21-2014, 07:14 PM
Tough loss today. My mind is still swirling with thoughts about the season, our players, and the tourney.

Call it a hunch, but I think you guys are being too pessimistic about Parker returning to Duke. I can understand the sentiment, it is better to be cautious than hopeful and feel burned if he declares for the draft. However, Parker and Okafor are good friends and former teammates in Chicago, and Parker played with Jones, Okafor, and Winslow for the US u-17 team that won gold. I think there is a certain level of peer pressure for him to stay.

Besides, Parker clearly has flaws in his game that need improvement. I think Coach K can sit him down and sell him on another year of development at Duke, especially given the disappointing season and the opportunity to play with the incoming class.

FerryFor50
03-21-2014, 07:30 PM
Tough loss today. My mind is still swirling with thoughts about the season, our players, and the tourney.

Call it a hunch, but I think you guys are being too pessimistic about Parker returning to Duke. I can understand the sentiment, it is better to be cautious than hopeful and feel burned if he declares for the draft. However, Parker and Okafor are good friends and former teammates in Chicago, and Parker played with Jones, Okafor, and Winslow for the US u-17 team that won gold. I think there is a certain level of peer pressure for him to stay.

Besides, Parker clearly has flaws in his game that need improvement. I think Coach K can sit him down and sell him on another year of development at Duke, especially given the disappointing season and the opportunity to play with the incoming class.

Maybe K will pull a Roy Williams and lie his butt off to keep Parker in school. (Reggie Bullock won't go in the first, he isn't ready; whatever he told McAdoo and Hairston to stick around)

Oh wait... K has morals.

SoCalDukeFan
03-21-2014, 07:30 PM
Just saying... In recent memory with a team heavily reliant on a blue chip, one and done freshman, 1-3. Juniors and seniors who haven't done much in the NBA, 2010 National Champions.

I am looking at my 2010 Order Has Been Restored poster. I see seniors Zoubek, Thomas, Scheyer, juniors Singler and Smith, sophs Plumlee, frosh Plumlee, Kelly and Dawkins. They played as a team. Who was the blue chip one and done frosh?

SoCal

FerryFor50
03-21-2014, 07:33 PM
I am looking at my 2010 Order Has Been Restored poster. I see seniors Zoubek, Thomas, Scheyer, juniors Singler and Smith, sophs Plumlee, frosh Plumlee, Kelly and Dawkins. They played as a team. Who was the blue chip one and done frosh?

SoCal

I think he's mis-remembering Kyrie Irving being on that team.

He's also mis-remembering that Singler, both Plumlees and Kelly are all doing ok in the NBA, and Lance Thomas had a couple seasons there as well.

Devilwin
03-21-2014, 07:44 PM
This class coming in is super talented, but no one is talking about Grayson Allen here. I have seen video on all four, and this kid is a superb athlete, can jump, and really stroke the three. I believe we are gonna be awesome next year, especially since I believe Jabari WILL be back.

dyedwab
03-21-2014, 07:45 PM
I'll bite and I'll be a naysayer (and I fully expect to get negative comments about this). Here' the ritual throat clearing. I graduated in '91, I attended every home game for which I was on campus, travelled to road games, attended the '91 FF, etc. DBR has been my home page since the days of Juliovision and the parquet floor.

And I have never been happier for a season to end and less hopeful about the next season.

Here's why. I think we can all agree that this team had a awful lot of talent, probably more than we had last year. Yet it never came together, for whatever reason. But I saw Laura Keeley quote Coach K as saying he thought this was a good season.

This team lost 9 games. Since 1986 (a year I view as when Duke became "Duke"), Only 6 Duke teams have lost 9 or more games
This team didn't make it to the round of 32. Since 1986, this is the 5th time that has happened
This team didn't either 1) win the ACC regular season, or 2) win the ACC Tournament, or 3) Make the Final Four. That has happened 8 times.

What that illustrates is 1) a remarkable level of achievement for a 28 year stretch and 2) it makes this season among the worst of Coach K's tenure.

Again a disclaimer - I am grateful for our sustained success. But that also sets a standard, and this season wasn't close it.

To continue, in two of the last 3 seasons , we have lost in the first round of the NCAA Tournament to a team that was not on our level. Literally. When we lose to Arizona, or Villanova, or West Virginia, or Louisville, we are losing to a team that swims in the same pond that we do in terms or recruiting, or conference play, or general approach to the overall basketball program. But Lehigh and Mercer don't. Put another way, recruits like Jabari Parker and Jahlil Okafor don't look at Mercer, and Lehigh can't schedule a random one-off at Madison Square Garden/The United Center

So those losses happened. And let's be clear - they shouldn't have if the programs were operating on all cylinders. And right now its not. We recruiting at an extraordinarily high level, but our teams are not coming together. On issues such as communication, decision making, defense, focus, and intensity, we have had continuing problems over the last three years, (Yes, last year's team lost in the Elite Eight to the eventual national champions, but its not like last year's team was a good defensive team either - it wasn't).

Let's take defense as an example. I love good defensive teams because 1) playing defense is a learned skill developed in the context of a team, 2) it requires players to understand and communicate one another and 3) its "selfless" in the context basketball - good hedges and denying the passing lane and stopping dribble penetration don't get you on the highlight film. To me that suggests it requires a large amount of team building and construction that hasn't occurred in the last 3 years. We haven't been as successful as our talent indicates because we haven't built a team as well as we should have.

Next year, we will replace our two leading scorers, a key all around backcourt reserve, and another front court reserve. We will try an integrate at least two, maybe 3, freshmen into significant roles. A lot of this year's issues (and the issues 2 years ago) have been rightly attributed to the loss of a lot of experience and production from the year before. The issue? The integration didn't go all that well, at least this year (and in '12). And we are doing it again next year. As a contrast, Bill Self in Kansas won a conference regular season title with an entirely different starting 5 then the year before....and that wasn't the first time that happened.

So, before I think about how players will fit in/improve over the summer (which is always one of my favorite parts of being a Duke fan) I'd like to see the following:

1) Rethinking about how we build a team and communicate. Coach K is the greatest of all time, but something has been off about this team in the last couple of years. Let's figure out what, how it happened and how to correct

2) Player conditioning -One of the things about '10 team was that it wore people out. JJ Redick wore people out. Williams/Battier/Boozer wore people out. The Duke teams of the last 3 years? They wore out. We need to figure out why that is

3) Given the new rules emphasis, think through how we play defense. And given our personnel, think about how we play defense(e.g. Quinn Cook doesn't have the lateral quickness to play as tight on guards who are good penetrators as he does....so that calls for a change in how we use Quinn Cook on D)

4) Play earlier in more hostile environments. This is the "true road game" argument, but there was no doubt this team wilted outside of Cameron when it didn't have the sustained energy of the home fams

5) This is impressionistic, but, "Duke gets all the calls" has, in my mind, clearly become a problem in how games are officiated when we play. Refs, being human, don't want their "controversial" calls replayed and questioned on SportsCenter when it benefits Duke, so they try and avoid giving Duke the benefit of the doubt across the aboard. As I said, this is impressionistic, but given that Coach K has entered the debate about this, I hope we will push back more against this.

Anyway, those are the thoughts of a depressed, long-time fan. Fire away!

jipops
03-21-2014, 08:17 PM
I'll bite and I'll be a naysayer (and I fully expect to get negative comments about this). Here' the ritual throat clearing. I graduated in '91, I attended every home game for which I was on campus, travelled to road games, attended the '91 FF, etc. DBR has been my home page since the days of Juliovision and the parquet floor.

And I have never been happier for a season to end and less hopeful about the next season.

Here's why. I think we can all agree that this team had a awful lot of talent, probably more than we had last year. Yet it never came together, for whatever reason. But I saw Laura Keeley quote Coach K as saying he thought this was a good season.

This team lost 9 games. Since 1986 (a year I view as when Duke became "Duke"), Only 6 Duke teams have lost 9 or more games
This team didn't make it to the round of 32. Since 1986, this is the 5th time that has happened
This team didn't either 1) win the ACC regular season, or 2) win the ACC Tournament, or 3) Make the Final Four. That has happened 8 times.

What that illustrates is 1) a remarkable level of achievement for a 28 year stretch and 2) it makes this season among the worst of Coach K's tenure.

Again a disclaimer - I am grateful for our sustained success. But that also sets a standard, and this season wasn't close it.

To continue, in two of the last 3 seasons , we have lost in the first round of the NCAA Tournament to a team that was not on our level. Literally. When we lose to Arizona, or Villanova, or West Virginia, or Louisville, we are losing to a team that swims in the same pond that we do in terms or recruiting, or conference play, or general approach to the overall basketball program. But Lehigh and Mercer don't. Put another way, recruits like Jabari Parker and Jahlil Okafor don't look at Mercer, and Lehigh can't schedule a random one-off at Madison Square Garden/The United Center

So those losses happened. And let's be clear - they shouldn't have if the programs were operating on all cylinders. And right now its not. We recruiting at an extraordinarily high level, but our teams are not coming together. On issues such as communication, decision making, defense, focus, and intensity, we have had continuing problems over the last three years, (Yes, last year's team lost in the Elite Eight to the eventual national champions, but its not like last year's team was a good defensive team either - it wasn't).

Let's take defense as an example. I love good defensive teams because 1) playing defense is a learned skill developed in the context of a team, 2) it requires players to understand and communicate one another and 3) its "selfless" in the context basketball - good hedges and denying the passing lane and stopping dribble penetration don't get you on the highlight film. To me that suggests it requires a large amount of team building and construction that hasn't occurred in the last 3 years. We haven't been as successful as our talent indicates because we haven't built a team as well as we should have.

Next year, we will replace our two leading scorers, a key all around backcourt reserve, and another front court reserve. We will try an integrate at least two, maybe 3, freshmen into significant roles. A lot of this year's issues (and the issues 2 years ago) have been rightly attributed to the loss of a lot of experience and production from the year before. The issue? The integration didn't go all that well, at least this year (and in '12). And we are doing it again next year. As a contrast, Bill Self in Kansas won a conference regular season title with an entirely different starting 5 then the year before....and that wasn't the first time that happened.

So, before I think about how players will fit in/improve over the summer (which is always one of my favorite parts of being a Duke fan) I'd like to see the following:

1) Rethinking about how we build a team and communicate. Coach K is the greatest of all time, but something has been off about this team in the last couple of years. Let's figure out what, how it happened and how to correct

2) Player conditioning -One of the things about '10 team was that it wore people out. JJ Redick wore people out. Williams/Battier/Boozer wore people out. The Duke teams of the last 3 years? They wore out. We need to figure out why that is

3) Given the new rules emphasis, think through how we play defense. And given our personnel, think about how we play defense(e.g. Quinn Cook doesn't have the lateral quickness to play as tight on guards who are good penetrators as he does....so that calls for a change in how we use Quinn Cook on D)

4) Play earlier in more hostile environments. This is the "true road game" argument, but there was no doubt this team wilted outside of Cameron when it didn't have the sustained energy of the home fams

5) This is impressionistic, but, "Duke gets all the calls" has, in my mind, clearly become a problem in how games are officiated when we play. Refs, being human, don't want their "controversial" calls replayed and questioned on SportsCenter when it benefits Duke, so they try and avoid giving Duke the benefit of the doubt across the aboard. As I said, this is impressionistic, but given that Coach K has entered the debate about this, I hope we will push back more against this.

Anyway, those are the thoughts of a depressed, long-time fan. Fire away!

Well you touched on a number of cliche's and the solutions offered were to "figure it out". I guess that's better than what I have because I have no clue what the overall solution is. I'm not so sure there is one. Sometimes situations just don't work out and there were some personnel and style of play issues that just didn't work out, if I may also be so vague.

Looking to next season one of several concerns is how exactly is Amile going to fit in now? He doesn't really have an offensive game 8 ft away from the basket. With Jahlil now manning the post what are his opportunities? Will K go extremely small around Jahlil as a result? I don't really see the juggernaut that others are hoping to see, but none of us have seen them play yet.

SoCalDukeFan
03-21-2014, 08:21 PM
Is based on my guess that K really wants a 5th NC.

And will figure out how to get it.

SoCal

_Gary
03-21-2014, 08:25 PM
Looking to next season one of several concerns is how exactly is Amile going to fit in now? He doesn't really have an offensive game 8 ft away from the basket. With Jahlil now manning the post what are his opportunities? Will K go extremely small around Jahlil as a result? I don't really see the juggernaut that others are hoping to see, yet none of us have seen them play yet.

I think that's a very reasonable concern, and one I've thought about as well. Unless Amile shocks me and develops a game similar to Jabari or Rodney on the outside, it's going to be tough going forward. Ideally, you'd want the two forwards we've had this year working with a load like Jahlil in the paint. Not sure how that's going to play out.

turnandburn55
03-21-2014, 08:26 PM
Just saying... In recent memory with a team heavily reliant on a blue chip, one and done freshman, 1-3. Juniors and seniors who haven't done much in the NBA, 2010 National Champions.

As opposed to the three seniors on this team who aren't going to much in the NBA? You can't have it both ways...

I'd love to know the secret to find guys who are clever, skilled players that just don't quite have what the NBA wants and therefore can stay 4 years to become hardened warriors. I'm sure K does as well. We struck gold in that regard with Smith, Scheyer, and Singler. The reality is that in this day and age, it's impossible to foresee that-- lots become *too* good and leave early, lots just never pan out.

Hopefully Quinn and Rasheed materialize into those types this coming year. That would indeed be a huge boost.

dyedwab
03-21-2014, 08:26 PM
Well you touched on a number of cliche's and the solutions offered were to "figure it out".

Yep. Actually that is my specific. Because I think this season (and over the past three seasons), we tried to tweak and adjust what we did tactically, but never thought about systemic changes. Hey, I'm likely to be wrong.

A larger point is that at various times in his career, Coach K has changed is approach on various different aspects of how he runs the program. I think its time for one of those re-thinkings.

CDu
03-21-2014, 08:28 PM
I am looking at my 2010 Order Has Been Restored poster. I see seniors Zoubek, Thomas, Scheyer, juniors Singler and Smith, sophs Plumlee, frosh Plumlee, Kelly and Dawkins. They played as a team. Who was the blue chip one and done frosh?

SoCal

Pretty sure what he was saying was that in the three years we've had a one-and-done talent we have gone 1-3 in the tourney. In the year where we were led by juniors and seniors, we won a title.

And last year with another veteran team we made the elite-8 and lost to the champion.

CDu
03-21-2014, 08:32 PM
Hopefully Quinn and Rasheed materialize into those types this coming year. That would indeed be a huge boost.

Not to mention Jefferson. Heck, maybe even Plumlee.

We will have lots of talented veterans who will be angry and ready to get this bitter taste out of their mouths. If they can provide the leadership and the superfrosh can step in line, very good things could happen.

SoCalDukeFan
03-21-2014, 08:38 PM
Pretty sure what he was saying was that in the three years we've had a one-and-done talent we have gone 1-3 in the tourney. In the year where we were led by juniors and seniors, we won a title.

And last year with another veteran team we made the elite-8 and lost to the champion.

Now I understand and I would echo the sentiment.

SoCal

JPtheGame
03-21-2014, 08:40 PM
I dont know how this pitchfork thing works but I think I should get about 10 when Jabari announces he's returning. Take all of these percentages and flip em, that's how sure I am that he will be back. Hood, gone.

turnandburn55
03-21-2014, 08:40 PM
Not to mention Jefferson. Heck, maybe even Plumlee.

We will have lots of talented veterans who will be angry and ready to get this bitter taste out of their mouths. If they can provide the leadership and the superfrosh can step in line, very good things could happen.

One of my favorite memories will always be the Duke-WV game in the 2010 Final Four. You could almost feel the team wanting the beat out the demons of three years' NCAA tournament frustration...

duke96
03-21-2014, 08:43 PM
Would love to see one of the more data/stats oriented folks on this board do an analysis of the extent to which senior experience (over young talent) has in fact been a key factor in NCAA championships (and/or final four appearances) in recent years. Suspect ex Kentucky w/ Davis this would lead to some interesting conclusions.

OldPhiKap
03-21-2014, 08:43 PM
Pretty sure what he was saying was that in the three years we've had a one-and-done talent we have gone 1-3 in the tourney. In the year where we were led by juniors and seniors, we won a title.

And last year with another veteran team we made the elite-8 and lost to the champion.


Now I understand and I would echo the sentiment.

SoCal

Yeah, but.

Our problem this year was not Parker (or Hood). I am not a fan of Kentucky's 1-&-done model but we are far from that.

You need four-year players and you need great talent. Our four-year players were Josh, Tyler (and Dawkins in a way). Love them all. But they were all role players. That is is not a knock on them -- just a fact that we did not have seniors and juniors who could lead the team and make the plays.

FerryFor50
03-21-2014, 08:44 PM
Yeah, but.

Our problem this year was not Parker (or Hood). I am not a fan of Kentucky's 1-&-done model but we are far from that.

You need four-year players and you need great talent. Our four-year players were Josh, Tyler (and Dawkins in a way). Love them all. But they were all role players. Both at is not a knock on them -- just a fact that we did not have seniors and juniors who could lead the team and make the plays.

Eh... Parker was part of the problem. His defense was BAD. Hood played well on both sides, but was technically in his 3rd year.

OldPhiKap
03-21-2014, 08:56 PM
Eh... Parker was part of the problem. His defense was BAD. Hood played well on both sides, but was technically in his 3rd year.

Parker just turned 19. Agreed, he has a lot to learn on the defensive end. But a freshman should not have to be the leader on that end of the floor.

nmduke2001
03-21-2014, 09:24 PM
The last two Duke teams led by superstar freshmen lost in the first round to Lehigh and Mercer. I am promising myself that I will contain my enthusiasm until late March next year.

gofurman
03-21-2014, 09:30 PM
Well, first I'll reiterate the thanks to the seniors. They gave everything they had to Duke. Two of them got to be with a national champion. The other two were on a few very good teams that just happened to fall short of expectations. But they bled Duke blue and gave it everything they had, and for that I thank them.

That being said, I want to move on from today's game as quickly as possible and think ahead. What do we have to work with, what do we have to work on, how can we make changes to avoid repeating this awful outcome?

The obvious problem we face is that we were a very bad defensive team this year. Sure, for stretches, we played some terrific, smothering defense. But for even longer stretches we were an absolute mess on defense. That has to change. Can Cook and Sulaimon become better on-ball defenders? Can Jones improve offensively to the point that his defensive prowess can be utilized? Can Ojeleye and Jefferson each improve defensively, using their length and/or athleticism at the PF spot? Will the tandem of Okafor and plumlee at center provide a good defensive presence? Lots of questions.

And then there are the two stars of the team: Hood and Parker. It's very disappointing that things ended with them throwing up clunkers, but sometimes that is how it goes. I suspect Hood is going to go pro. I think there is a microscopically better chance that Parker comes back under the Harrison Barnes "unfinished business" mindset. But I suspect he goes, too.

So in all likelihood, we'll have:
C: Okafor, Plumlee
PF: Jefferson, Ojeleye
SF: Winslow, T. Jones
SG: Sulaimon, Allen
PG: T. Jones, Cook

So we'll suddenly go from being a fairly tall team on the wings but smallish inside to a very big team inside but smallish on the perimeter (especially if we go with the T. Jones/Cook/Sulaimon pairing for long stretches). Quite a change in dynamic.

We should be a more versatile team next year with Okafor's post game and T. Jones' playmaking ability. We'll still have some good outside shooters in Sulaimon and Cook, and maybe M. Jones will find his stroke again with more PT. But the real question will again be defense. Can next year's team defend MUCH better than this year's team? Because if not, there's a real possibility that we face a similar fate.

T Jones at the 3? Who did you mean was your guess here?

gofurman
03-21-2014, 09:32 PM
The last two Duke teams led by superstar freshmen lost in the first round to Lehigh and Mercer. I am promising myself that I will contain my enthusiasm until late March next year.

Kyrie Irving would have led me deep I remain convinced - and that's as the lead guard! It can be done. But it's rare

turnandburn55
03-21-2014, 09:32 PM
T Jones at the 3? Who did you mean was your guess here?

Probably M Jones.

FerryFor50
03-21-2014, 09:33 PM
T Jones at the 3? Who did you mean was your guess here?

Probably the other Jones - Matt.

CDu
03-21-2014, 09:41 PM
T Jones at the 3? Who did you mean was your guess here?

Obviously a typo. Clearly I meant M. Jones (you know: the current SG/SF already on the roster?). You would think the reference to M. Jones further down in my post would have provided enough of a context clue. Guess not.

gofurman
03-21-2014, 09:48 PM
Obviously a typo. Clearly I meant M. Jones (you know: the current SG/SF already on the roster?). You would think the reference to M. Jones further down in my post would have provided enough of a context clue. Guess not.

No need to get snarky. I didn't think M Jones was a three. I think of him as a two. That threw me off - you all think Matt Jones can play the three? If so our height (lack there of) scares me on the perimeter

nyesq83
03-21-2014, 10:03 PM
I look forward to the Elon game.

gumbomoop
03-21-2014, 10:24 PM
[B]our height (lack there of) scares me on the perimeter

Unless either Jabari or Rodney returns, I'm guessing we will definitely play small ball on the perimeter for meaningful stretches most games. That is, Quinn, Rasheed, and Tyus are going to play, a lot. We could speculate that the 80 mpg at the 1 and 2 will be 27 min for each of those 3, but it seems more likely that each of those guys will get 30+ mpg. [Not to mention, even in the 27 mpg for each scenario, at times Quinn and Tyus will be on the floor at the same time.]

I don't fear such perimeter small ball stretches, given that it wouldn't be all game, as Justise is highly likely to be in the rotation at wing/3, for 8-18 mpg. Further, it's likely that on the floor with the small ball perimeter trio would be some combo of Jahlil/Amile/Marshall.

Now maybe Allen will surprise, and grab some minutes at the 2. Ditto an improved M. Jones. But those guys would have to surprise significantly to take lots of minutes from Quinn, Rasheed, and Tyus.

I'd like to see a modified 10-man rotation [guys 9 & 10 with 6-7 mpg each], but won't count on it. I'll be very surprised if we see fewer than 30 mpg from each of Quinn, Rasheed, and Tyus, and fewer than 27 from Jahlil. Amile seems likely next in mpg pecking order, leaving a battle among Marshall, Justise, Matt, Semi, and Grayson for rotation spots 6-8.

We're going to see some perimeter small ball.

Unless either Jabari or Rodney returns.

gofurman
03-21-2014, 10:26 PM
As opposed to the three seniors on this team who aren't going to much in the NBA? You can't have it both ways...

I'd love to know the secret to find guys who are clever, skilled players that just don't quite have what the NBA wants and therefore can stay 4 years to become hardened warriors. I'm sure K does as well. We struck gold in that regard with Smith, Scheyer, and Singler. The reality is that in this day and age, it's impossible to foresee that-- lots become *too* good and leave early, lots just never pan out.

Hopefully Quinn and Rasheed materialize into those types this coming year. That would indeed be a huge boost.

Great point - like KJ McDaniels at Clemson. Find guys who can't leave until either junior or senior. I think we all agree this a HUGE reason for the current parity in college ball. Great players leave after one yr - no more senior (even junior) grant hill players out there. Players like Grant hill, Tim Duncan all leave now. It was shocking that Marcus smart stayed two years.

Guys like Singler and Nolan Smith are keys to building a champ... I agree. Guys who can't even think nba until after junior year. Suliamon can be that type! Lead us Sheed and Cook - Plumlee too, like a better Zoubek. No doubt Plumlee has more talent than Zoubek and we probably have mp3 4 years. MP3, Sheed and cook could be a real building block for us

Henderson
03-21-2014, 10:27 PM
Our four-year players were Josh, Tyler (and Dawkins in a way). Love them all. But they were all role players.

Agree with your point about experience. But let's not forget Todd. His role was almost exclusively as a practice player, but he earned his scholly.

_Gary
03-21-2014, 10:38 PM
Unless either Jabari or Rodney returns, I'm guessing we will definitely play small ball on the perimeter for meaningful stretches most games. That is, Quinn, Rasheed, and Tyus are going to play, a lot...

We're going to see some perimeter small ball.

Unless either Jabari or Rodney returns.

I agree with your assessment. And I'm not looking forward to it at all. When I think of the championship Duke teams, I generally think of a bigger lineup. Whether people want to admit it or not, I just don't see the advantage of going small for extended stretches in the NCAA. Especially in the Big Dance. It works only when you have lightning quickness at the 1-3, which I won't consider us having with those three players. But unless something crazy happens that's what we are going to get.

Kedsy
03-21-2014, 10:49 PM
This class coming in is super talented, but no one is talking about Grayson Allen here. I have seen video on all four, and this kid is a superb athlete, can jump, and really stroke the three. I believe we are gonna be awesome next year, especially since I believe Jabari WILL be back.

You think Jabari will be back and you also think Grayson Allen is going to play a lot? Absent injury, there is no minute-math in which those two things happen.

If Jabari returns, Grayson will be behind Jabari, Jahlil, Amile, Marshall, Quinn, Rasheed, Tyus, Justice, likely Matt, and maybe Semi. He'd be at best 9th in the rotation and quite possibly 11th, which would mean he'd only see spot and garbage time minutes in 2014.

jipops
03-21-2014, 10:55 PM
If Jabari returns,

But since he isn't...well Grayson still won't play much. Not ahead of Quinn, Sheed, Matt, and Tyus.

Kedsy
03-21-2014, 11:14 PM
But since he isn't...well Grayson still won't play much. Not ahead of Quinn, Sheed, Matt, and Tyus.

Oh, I agree. He's still 9th or 10th. I only said "if Jabari returns" because the poster to whom I was replying professes to believe that's going to happen and still somehow thinks Grayson will be relevant in 2014-15.

JNort
03-21-2014, 11:16 PM
Let's see players on our team next year if Hood and Parker are truly gone:

Returning (by most minutes played):
Cook
Rasheed
Amile
Marshall
Matt
Semi

Adding (by highest ranking):
Jahlil
Tyus
Justice
Grayson

Next year I assume we go back to a solid 7 man rotation:

Starters:
Tyus
Cook
Sheed
Amile
Jahlil

Bench:
Matt
Plumlee

Justice and Semi will battle out for any remaing minutes.

CR9
03-21-2014, 11:23 PM
And I think Duke should seriously look at starting OKafor, Amille, Sheed, Cook, and Semi or Justice. Our three guard line ups haven't been working and we keep getting beat on the interior and the boards. I want to see a big team. TJones can come off the bench for a season.

A thousand times this. I could see an occasional scoring line-up with 3 guards, like K tried this season with Dre but 3 guards majority of the time has not and will not work for Duke.

JNort
03-21-2014, 11:30 PM
A thousand times this. I could see an occasional scoring line-up with 3 guards, like K tried this season with Dre but 3 guards majority of the time has not and will not work for Duke.

But in the situation with Dre he wasn't a threat to really drive. With Cook, Tyus and Sheed you would have to guard the 3 and respect the drive. Plus those three can all pass very very well

kAzE
03-21-2014, 11:33 PM
I would lean toward switching the attribution of those percentages.

I think K has already said in a post-game conference (wasn't it the last UNC game?) that he has Hood for one year. It's interesting that he didn't go as far when talking about Jabari.

Of course, Charles Barkley keeps insisting that Jabari is coming back to Duke for another year. I've heard him say this on both television and on local radio interview (Philadelphia). Not like he's an "insider", but he seems pretty sure about it. I guess this might be a stretch, but I am not above fooling myself after the season ended so unexpectedly.

Barkley also predicted that Yao Ming would never score 20 points in a NBA game.

kAzE
03-21-2014, 11:35 PM
I think Winslow will be a starter. He's the type of glue guy and all-purpose defender that our team lacked this year. If he is what he's been reputed to be, then we have a guy who can capably defend 4 or 5 positions on the court, which is just fantastic for so many reasons. As unlikely as 3 freshman starters for Duke sounds, I believe it may be a real possibility with this class. They are that good.

richardjackson199
03-21-2014, 11:46 PM
I'm still trying to find a positive from this horrible day. I knew we were vulnerable, but I did not see this coming. I just watched the game on replay after work. We seemed to just dominate Mercer on the boards and for 2nd chance points most of the game. We hit 15 threes and shot a decent percentage from three. Quinn and Rasheed played great. Thornton played well. Hood and Jabari saw a double team every time they touched the ball. Overall it looked like nobody played poorly. Admittedly we wasted a few too many possessions on ill-advised hero-ball outside jumpers on key possessions, but we were playing hard and well for the most part. Mercer just stayed close, hit a difficult NBA 3 to tie it late, and everything went their way after that.

I try to never blame officials, and I won't today. But the officiating like many "breaks" in that game just didn't go our way. How many turnovers did we have from travelling?? A couple of those calls were legit, but many of them looked iffy to my biased eye. :) And wow it seemed every whistled foul went against us on some close calls. I don't think the officiating was poor or why we lost. It just didn't seem like we were catching any breaks the whole game. Like Rodney slipping on a wet spot on the floor, and the Mercer guy wisely tripping over him gave Rodney 4th foul and them the lead with the free throws. Those seniors nailed their free throws all game. They had one opportunity at the end, and they seized it with precision daggers and put us away just like we've been unable to do all year.

I'm in a despicable mood, and thus overly pessimistic. I'd love to see a silver lining of Parker and Hood deciding that they are not going out like that. They will get teased in the NBA relentlessly if this is their legacy from Duke. They don't owe me anything, but I hope they owe themselves a more complete legacy at Duke. They have unfinished business.

I'd like to believe it will play out that way. I'd like to think that Parker and Hood decide to come back and have the kind of season next year they envisioned when they put on the Duke uniform. I'd like Myles Turner to commit to Duke to give us quality athletic depth at the rim-protecting power 4 spot. I'd like Kentucky & UNC to lose asap in this tourney. I'd like Paige and McAdoo to go pro with Jabari and Hood staying one more year. I'd like to dominate UNC, Kentucky, and all of college basketball next year. Hell I'd like to win a billion bucks and pick a perfect bracket. Back to reality. I know that it's more likely that Paige and McAdoo will return along with most everyone else like Brice Johnson, Kennedy Meeks, Tokoto, and the majority of their team. Plus with the 5-star recruiting class they're bringing in and losing only McDonald, it's hard for me to imagine us having a better team than Carolina next year after losing Parker, Hood, Dawkins, Thornton, Hairston, and Todd.

Today sucks. I know Duke basketball will be back. Catch you guys next year.

dukelifer
03-22-2014, 06:35 AM
Is based on my guess that K really wants a 5th NC.

And will figure out how to get it.

SoCal

There are a lot of good coaches out there. K does not have the same energy or motivation he had 20 years ago. The high turnover of players year to year does not work for his system that relies on communication. Next year is a rebuilding year yet again. K will probably have one more shot at a NC and it will likely involve the players coming in. But the likelihood of it coming next year is very small unless Jabari returns. Next year's team will have many of the same issues this year's team had as it looks to replace two key players.

CajunDevil
03-22-2014, 07:13 AM
There are a lot of good coaches out there. K does not have the same energy or motivation he had 20 years ago. The high turnover of players year to year does not work for his system that relies on communication. Next year is a rebuilding year yet again. K will probably have one more shot at a NC and it will likely involve the players coming in. But the likelihood of it coming next year is very small unless Jabari returns. Next year's team will have many of the same issues this year's team had as it looks to replace two key players.

I don't agree at all that next year is a rebuilding year. We will be pre-season top 5 and if Jabari comes back a lock for #1. Don't assume that our same problems this year will exist next. Totally different team. I've never seen a team lose virtually every game we lost like we did this year - wilting down the stretch. That points to leadership. Next year will be different with key players as leaders and K more focused. Next year is K's 5th Natty...

dyedwab
03-22-2014, 07:40 AM
Don't assume that our same problems this year will exist next. .

Why not? We will once again be replacing significant scoring, and significant minutes with inexperience. Talented inexperience, but we had that this season.

The problem with this team were far more about not getting what they needed to do (defense, communication, positioning, decision making. leadership) then about talent. And, I'm sorry, but this is the 2nd time in 3 years this occurred.

And are we assuming that one of Cook, Amile, Rasheed - who really are the only options - assumes the leadership mantle so evidently missing this year?

Again, all of it is possible. But looking at the collection of basketball abilities on this team and stopping there seems to me to miss what was absent here.

What we really need is a leap in the mental aspects of the game from all of our current players, and hope that our newer players adjust more quickly to each other than this years team does.

dukelifer
03-22-2014, 08:59 AM
I don't agree at all that next year is a rebuilding year. We will be pre-season top 5 and if Jabari comes back a lock for #1. Don't assume that our same problems this year will exist next. Totally different team. I've never seen a team lose virtually every game we lost like we did this year - wilting down the stretch. That points to leadership. Next year will be different with key players as leaders and K more focused. Next year is K's 5th Natty...

I have not analyzed the landscape after this years departures but UNC and Virginia are likely goin to lead the ACC. Winslow may be the most important player on next years team if he is the defensive stopper he is claimed to be. Big guys take time- foul trouble- foul shooting are big time concerns. Tyus may be the most likely to give solid production- he is the one player that could be an X factor.

Jackson
03-22-2014, 09:12 AM
I think Winslow is a big key to next year. I hate going small ball. The idea of Cook, T. Jones and Sheed playing together for extended minutes fills me with dread. Matt Jones isn't going to, in my opinion make strides to be a guy to take minutes at the 3. Okafor will be a monster, Jones will be possibly the best point guard in college next year. Jefferson will be steady at the 4. Sheed will have a breakthrough year and become what everyone hoped he would be this year. The question is at the wing. Cook will get significant minutes at the 1 and 2. We need Winslow at the 3 or Semi needs to improve by leaps and bounds. 6'4" small forwards are a recipe for disaster. If Winslow plays well next year, #5 goes up (at least I can tell myself that and feel better about yesterday).

TruBlu
03-22-2014, 09:45 AM
But since he isn't...well Grayson still won't play much. Not ahead of Quinn, Sheed, Matt, and Tyus.

Is it time to start a Grayson transferring vigil?:eek:

jv001
03-22-2014, 09:54 AM
Let's see we have Amile, Justise and Matt that some posters want in the main rotation. That's fine on defense but what about offense. I love Matt's defense, but he is going to have to be able to shoot the ball much, much better next season to help. Amile at the 4 sounds good if he can somehow develop an inside offensive game. He will not be the Duke step out 4. From all reports Justise is a very good defender and he likes playing defense. We could have used him this season. Our guards are small with the exception of Rasheed. So the three guard lineup puts a lot of pressure on Oka and Amile to rebound the ball. We really don't know what to expect for next season, but I suppose it's interesting to discuss it. GoDuke!

GGLC
03-22-2014, 10:06 AM
Let's see players on our team next year if Hood and Parker are truly gone:

Returning (by most minutes played):
Cook
Rasheed
Amile
Marshall
Matt
Semi

Adding (by highest ranking):
Jahlil
Tyus
Justice
Grayson

Next year I assume we go back to a solid 7 man rotation:

Starters:
Tyus
Cook
Sheed
Amile
Jahlil

Bench:
Matt
Plumlee

Justice and Semi will battle out for any remaing minutes.

If this is the case then I sincerely hope that Semi takes the long view regarding his ability to learn and contribute in his final two seasons. Or we should consider redshirting him.

GGLC
03-22-2014, 10:07 AM
But in the situation with Dre he wasn't a threat to really drive. With Cook, Tyus and Sheed you would have to guard the 3 and respect the drive. Plus those three can all pass very very well

Dawkins showed at least as much of an ability to drive as Quinn this season, when he was called upon to do so.

GGLC
03-22-2014, 10:11 AM
Someone much smarter than me opined yesterday that K's Team USA time may have caused him to place increasing reliance on a pro-style offensive scheme (isolations, clear-outs, little movement, few set plays even out of timeouts) that does not serve college freshmen and sophomores as well as it serves seasoned NBA players. I think there's a lot of merit to this, and I hope K is self-aware enough to recognize it and adjust. In my opinion, we would have been far more successful this year with a more team-oriented offensive approach, and I'd like to see us get back to that for next year.

jv001
03-22-2014, 10:21 AM
Someone much smarter than me opined yesterday that K's Team USA time may have caused him to place increasing reliance on a pro-style offensive scheme (isolations, clear-outs, little movement, few set plays even out of timeouts) that does not serve college freshmen and sophomores as well as it serves seasoned NBA players. I think there's a lot of merit to this, and I hope K is self-aware enough to recognize it and adjust. In my opinion, we would have been far more successful this year with a more team-oriented offensive approach, and I'd like to see us get back to that for next year.

I was listening to Mad Dog on XM Radio yesterday and he made that observation. I concur. GoDuke!

tommy
03-22-2014, 10:27 AM
Like you said, we're gonna be big. Okafor is ginormous. MP3 will be a natural senior / redshirt junior and hopefully injury free. Jefferson will be able to play his natural position at the 4. And Semi will be Semi, ie a man-child. Our guards are also a fairly known commodity. Sulaimon is a great 3pt shooter, plays decent defense, is a good penetrator, and is an emotional leader.

I wouldn't say Rasheed is a great 3 point shooter. He's a streaky 3 point shooter. In fact, most of his game is streaky, and that includes his mental game.


That leaves Matt Jones and Semi, two players with limited minutes. Matt Jones is unique because he is a D first guy with limited O (btw, how did Matt Jones get known as the best shooter in the 2013 class but somehow lost the ability to shoot in college?).

For all the touting of Matt's defense, while he seemed adequate, I didn't exactly see a defensive dynamo. He may yet be one, but I think if he had been an outstanding defensive player he would've seen more minutes this year given all the defensive problems we had this year, in particular on the perimeter.


As for the freshman? No idea. Okafor will start from Day 1 unless MP3 turns in Dwight Howard. Tyus Jones will either start from Day 1, displace Quinn Cook, or play 25-30 min of the bench (I honestly could see any of these. Quinn and Jones are more similar than we think).

Not above the neck they're not.


I don't know what starting line-ups are gonna look like, but I can absolutely, 100% make the following accurate statements:

1) Our D will be better. In the case of Hood and Parker leaving, it is addition by subtraction on the D end. Both have been pretty awful on D (O is another story. They have been beautiful on that end).
2) Our D efficiency will be higher than our O efficiency. I see Coach K going vintage Coach K: Defense over offense. After seeing how this team fared, and knowing that there isn't an offensive juggernaut next year, it only makes sense to reprioritize defense.
3) Sulaimon will start. He is our best returning offensive and defensive player who had consistent minutes.

Outside of that, I'm lost.

I agree with those three. THe only thing that causes me concern is that coming into this year it was supposed to be Rodney Hood and his length and athleticism that made us kinda scary on D. That turned out not to be the case at all. But it's not like Hood was new, an unknown quantity. He practiced a whole year with the team. The staff knew what he could do at both ends of the floor, and it just seems to me he was nowhere near the defensive player that everyone assumed he was going to be based on what the staff seemed to be saying. But I do agree that K is going to have to re-prioritize defense in a big, big way.

Acymetric
03-22-2014, 12:43 PM
Great point - like KJ McDaniels at Clemson. Find guys who can't leave until either junior or senior. I think we all agree this a HUGE reason for the current parity in college ball. Great players leave after one yr - no more senior (even junior) grant hill players out there. Players like Grant hill, Tim Duncan all leave now. It was shocking that Marcus smart stayed two years.

Guys like Singler and Nolan Smith are keys to building a champ... I agree. Guys who can't even think nba until after junior year. Suliamon can be that type! Lead us Sheed and Cook - Plumlee too, like a better Zoubek. No doubt Plumlee has more talent than Zoubek and we probably have mp3 4 years. MP3, Sheed and cook could be a real building block for us

You know, I'm not entirely sure that's true with regards to Zoubek. Z had it as bad or worse than Plumlee with regards to lower body injuries for his first 3 years. His first truly healthy year he was one of the most dominant rebounders/big men in the country (without looking I won't attempt to discuss where his rebounding, especially offensively, stacks up historically but if anyone else remembers off hand it would be interesting to be reminded) and helped lead his team to a championship. Plumlee is more athletic, but I am not ready to concede that he is more talented. That said, certainly it would be great for us going forward if it were the case.

Caveat: I was a huge fan of Zoubs all 4 years and always felt his injuries held him back. I almost enjoyed watching him and Lance emerge as top flight college players as much as I enjoyed the play of Singler, Scheyer, and Smith on the perimeter. Fortunately I got both!

FerryFor50
03-22-2014, 01:07 PM
Is it time to start a Grayson transferring vigil?:eek:

First things first. A Semi transfer vigil has already been started.

Kedsy
03-22-2014, 01:17 PM
Justice and Semi will battle out for any remaing minutes.

First of all, Justise spells his name with an "s," not a "c." Second, in last summer's RSCI, Justise was ranked the #12 recruit in the country, same as Rasheed coming out of high school. I'd expect Justise to get rotation minutes. If that means an 8-man rotation, Coach K has gone 8 deep a few times over the years (including this season, counting Andre and Marshall as in the rotation).


(without looking I won't attempt to discuss where his rebounding, especially offensively, stacks up historically but if anyone else remembers off hand it would be interesting to be reminded)

Brian Zoubek was a really good rebounder his first three years as well as his senior year. Here are his rebound percentages (tempo free, minute-independent, so as not to penalize him for not playing so much):

FR: 20.2% DR%; 16.9 OR%
SO: 19.5% DR%; 16.1% OR%
JR: 18.9% DR%; 16.7% OR%

For a comparison on his first three years defensive rebounding numbers, this season Jabari was 3rd in the ACC with a 23.1% DR% and Amile was 8th in the ACC with a 21.5% DR%. Z's first three year's defensive numbers would have been top 15 this year.

For a comparison on Z's first three years offensive rebounding numbers, this season Keita of Syracuse led the ACC with 16.3 and Meeks of UNC was 2nd with 15.7, so essentially Z would have been the leading offensive rebounder in the ACC (or a close 2nd) all three years.

Zoubek's senior year he took it up a notch. His 24.4% DR% led the ACC and his 21.6% OR% led the nation and was one of the top two OR% put up by anybody since the 2000 season (not sure about before that).

Interestingly enough, Marshall's offensive rebound percentage this season (16.6%) tracks Brian Zoubek's early OR% numbers reasonably well (and even last season, in limited minutes, Marshall had a decent 12.2% OR%). He's an elite offensive rebounder already and if he continues to improve he should be an absolute beast on the offensive glass by his senior year (just like the Big Z, although since only three guys in the past 15 years (including Z) have topped 20%, that may be a bit much to hope for). On the defensive boards, however, Marshall's defensive rebounding numbers (14.1% DR% this season and 13.4% DR% in limited minutes last season) are nowhere near where Z was in his first few years. Hopefully Marshall can get those numbers up, but it seems a long shot to think he could get his defensive rebounding up to where Brian Zoubek was his senior season.

FerryFor50
03-22-2014, 01:21 PM
First of all, Justise spells his name with an "s," not a "c." Second, in last summer's RSCI, Justise was ranked the #12 recruit in the country, same as Rasheed coming out of high school. I'd expect Justise to get rotation minutes. If that means an 8-man rotation, Coach K has gone 8 deep a few times over the years (including this season, counting Andre and Marshall as in the rotation).



Brian Zoubek was a really good rebounder his first three years as well as his senior year. Here are his rebound percentages (tempo free, minute-independent, so as not to penalize him for not playing so much):

FR: 20.2% DR%; 16.9 OR%
SO: 19.5% DR%; 16.1% OR%
JR: 18.9% DR%; 16.7% OR%

For a comparison on his first three years defensive rebounding numbers, this season Jabari was 3rd in the ACC with a 23.1% DR% and Amile was 8th in the ACC with a 21.5% DR%. Z's first three year's defensive numbers would have been top 15 this year.

For a comparison on Z's first three years offensive rebounding numbers, this season Keita of Syracuse led the ACC with 16.3 and Meeks of UNC was 2nd with 15.7, so essentially Z would have been the leading offensive rebounder in the ACC (or a close 2nd) all three years.

Zoubek's senior year he took it up a notch. His 24.4% DR% led the ACC and his 21.6% OR% led the nation and was one of the top two OR% put up by anybody since the 2000 season (not sure about before that).

Interestingly enough, Marshall's offensive rebound percentage this season (16.6%) tracks Brian Zoubek's early OR% numbers reasonably well (and even last season, in limited minutes, Marshall had a decent 12.2% OR%). He's an elite offensive rebounder already and if he continues to improve he should be an absolute beast on the offensive glass by his senior year (just like the Big Z, although since only three guys in the past 15 years (including Z) have topped 20%, that may be a bit much to hope for). On the defensive boards, however, Marshall's defensive rebounding numbers (14.1% DR% this season and 13.4% DR% in limited minutes last season) are nowhere near where Z was in his first few years. Hopefully Marshall can get those numbers up, but it seems a long shot to think he could get his defensive rebounding up to where Brian Zoubek was his senior season.

I think a lot of MP3's rebounding woes on the defensive end will be fixed by experience (knowing where to position himself, reading the caroms, etc) and strength. If he bulks up the Plumlee way, he will be a handfu on the glassl for opposing bigs.

JPtheGame
03-22-2014, 01:28 PM
Someone much smarter than me opined yesterday that K's Team USA time may have caused him to place increasing reliance on a pro-style offensive scheme (isolations, clear-outs, little movement, few set plays even out of timeouts) that does not serve college freshmen and sophomores as well as it serves seasoned NBA players. I think there's a lot of merit to this, and I hope K is self-aware enough to recognize it and adjust. In my opinion, we would have been far more successful this year with a more team-oriented offensive approach, and I'd like to see us get back to that for next year.

Boy, I hope so. Having the 2nd most efficient offense in the country was unbearable. I think it takes the MOST efficient offense to beat a mercer.
Anyone talking about offensive adjustments is not much smarter than you or anyone. The problem here was defense.

Kedsy
03-22-2014, 01:39 PM
I think a lot of MP3's rebounding woes on the defensive end will be fixed by experience (knowing where to position himself, reading the caroms, etc) and strength. If he bulks up the Plumlee way, he will be a handfu on the glassl for opposing bigs.

Maybe. I hope so. But here are the "early year" defensive rebounding percentages for some recent Duke big men who all blossomed as seniors:

Brian Zoubek (as I noted before): 20.2%, 19.5%, 18.9%; SR YEAR: 24.4%
Mason Plumlee: 15.1%, 23.3%, 24.4%; SR YEAR: 23.3%
Miles Plumlee: 14.8%, 22.1%, 17.8%; SR YEAR: 22.7%

Marshall Plumlee: 13.4%, 14.1%

Z was good all along. Marshall's brothers both made their big jumps between freshman and sophomore year. Maybe Marshall's injury problems put him a year behind, and he'll jump into the 20s next year. But I don't think we can count on that.

FerryFor50
03-22-2014, 01:46 PM
Boy, I hope so. Having the 2nd most efficient offense in the country was unbearable. I think it takes the MOST efficient offense to beat a mercer.
Anyone talking about offensive adjustments is not much smarter than you or anyone. The problem here was defense.

While I agree that offense was generally not the problem most of the season, Duke's losses to lesser teams did tend to come when they didn't play as well on offense. And that was because there wasn't defense to fall back on.

Duke's oRTG for the year was 119.6.

Below are the oRTGs for Duke in their losses. The only game Duke lost where they played to their average on offense was Syracuse, which was very much winnable until that Hood non-call on the dunk:

Kansas: 109.2 oRTG; allowed KU to 123.7 oRTG
Arizona: 94.3 oRTG; allowed Zona to 102.9 oRTG
Notre Dame: 116.7 oRTG; allowed ND to 119.7 oRTG
Clemson: 90.8 oRTG; allowed Clemson to 110.8 oRTG
Syracuse: 127.1 oRTG; allowed Syracuse to 130 oRTG
UNC: 95.7 oRTG; allowed UNC to 107.2 oRTG
Wake: 104.3 oRTG; allowed Wake to 118.8 oRTG
UVA: 100 oRTG; allowed UVA to 114.3 oRTG
Mercer: 108.2 oRTG; allowed Mercer to 120 oRTG (ugh)

Defense was certainly an issue, but it was fatal when Duke's offense wasn't running on all cylinders.

DBFAN
03-22-2014, 01:48 PM
Hey can anyone give me any updates on Myles Turner. I haven't really followed anything regarding him since we will have Okafor. But I just thought I would give him a look today, and it doesn't seem that He is out of reach but I really don't know much about the situation

OldSchool
03-22-2014, 02:00 PM
I'm going to go ahead and say it. If JP does not return for next year:

Rasheed Sulaimon 2014-15 - Captain, leader, most minutes played, most points scored. He shows up well-prepared for the season to start. He is mentally stronger. His shooting is more consistent. He is smarter on defense. His handle is better. When he beats his man and gets into the lane, he figures out how to feed Jahlil, Amile or Marshall when his own shot is defended. Think Nolan's senior year, except better 3-pt percentage and not quite as many assists per game.

JPtheGame
03-22-2014, 02:34 PM
While I agree that offense was generally not the problem most of the season, Duke's losses to lesser teams did tend to come when they didn't play as well on offense. And that was because there wasn't defense to fall back on.

...

Defense was certainly an issue, but it was fatal when Duke's offense wasn't running on all cylinders.

For that to be a valuable stat, you'll have to produce teams that played significantly under their offensive level and still won. If those teams even exist, you can be sure their defensive rating would be sky high in those instances when their O is less than ideal. Either way, it points to the same issue. Duke has to improve defensively to give themselves some margin for error.
Think of the mercer game. Duke hit 15 3's. Should the focus be on how to hit 17 or how to keep the opponent from shooting 56%?

GGLC
03-22-2014, 02:43 PM
If people think offense wasn't a problem for us this year, they are absolutely kidding themselves.

_Gary
03-22-2014, 03:04 PM
If people think offense wasn't a problem for us this year, they are absolutely kidding themselves.

Agreed. While our defensive cohesion was worse than almost any I've ever seen, the offense was also a weakness. Our inability, in the half court, to penetrate and create easy shots off that penetration was glaring. It was the single biggest problem we had on offense this year. Neither of our PGs (and I love them both) demonstrated they could break down a defense with dribble penetration in the half court. It was just brutal to see us do nothing more than pass the ball from side to side on the perimeter most of the time. But for Hood and Parker being so good at getting off their own shots, this season would have been far worse. That has to change, big time, next year. And thankfully I believe it will - in the form of one Tyus Jones. Come on board, Tyus. You can't get here soon enough for me.

Kedsy
03-22-2014, 03:09 PM
Agreed. While our defensive cohesion was worse than almost any I've ever seen, the offense was also a weakness.

As others have noted, over the course of the season we had the 2nd best offense in the country. That's some weakness.

_Gary
03-22-2014, 03:15 PM
As others have noted, over the course of the season we had the 2nd best offense in the country. That's some weakness.

By statistic, yes. But are you arguing my point about lack of ability to dribble penetrate? Surely not.

Kedsy
03-22-2014, 03:20 PM
By statistic, yes. But are you arguing my point about lack of ability to dribble penetrate? Surely not.

From reading your posts over the years I know this is very important to you. But I don't agree that all PGs have to play like Jason Williams or Kyrie Irving to be successful. There are many ways to play good offense. And this season, while Duke's offense did seem to go AWOL on occasion near the end of games, overall we scored 1.2 points per possession. I just can't see calling our offense a "weakness."

_Gary
03-22-2014, 03:25 PM
From reading your posts over the years I know this is very important to you. But I don't agree that all PGs have to play like Jason Williams or Kyrie Irving to be successful. There are many ways to play good offense. And this season, while Duke's offense did seem to go AWOL on occasion near the end of games, overall we scored 1.2 points per possession. I just can't see calling our offense a "weakness."

You're absolutely correct in that I think, under Coach K's system of motion offense, it's very nice to have a PG that has absolute command of his dribble and can face up and penetrate to create either for himself or a teammate. If a team runs a different style offense I'm with you that this type of PG isn't necessary. But late in games, when things get tight, it's a luxury we haven't seen much of in quite a while. Again, I'm not just talking about having this type of PG because I think it's "neat" or the "best" type of player. I'm saying that our style of offense functions best with this type of player. Other than 2010, I'd say our best teams have had this type of PG. But I freely admit it's only my opinion. If you didn't see this as a major weakness in our offense this season, then we'll agree to disagree. And please remember that I'm not saying our offense, overall, was weak. I'm saying that part of our offense was very weak and hurt us multiple times - especially late in games - this year. If I didn't make that point earlier then my bad.

P.S. I think our great per possession scoring this season was in larger part due to having two "bigs" that could and did create and make many of their own shots. Without Rodney hitting at a phenomenal clip most of the year, and Jabari doing his own thing, I'm not sure we'd have been anywhere close to as good as we were in terms of offensive efficiency. Just my two cents though.

GGLC
03-22-2014, 03:30 PM
As others have noted, over the course of the season we had the 2nd best offense in the country. That's some weakness.

How many points per game did that second best offense in the country average over, say, its last ten?

(A number picked randomly and not as an attempt to cherry pick an endpoint.)

Would you agree that it would be nice for the second best offense in the country to, say, reliably break the seventy point barrier?

You can talk about advanced metrics all you want, but I watched the games, and I consistently saw stagnancy, with little ball movement except around the perimeter, little sense of team coordination, a lot of standing around, terrible spacing, few crisp passes, few set plays, and a lot of hurried jumpers or drives into three players as the shot clock wound down.

During one sequence in the Mercer game, our players were literally running into each other.

Continuing to insist that our offense -- as it was being run, conceived, and executed over the latter half of the season was actually one of the most effective or efficient in the country is myopic to the extreme.

_Gary
03-22-2014, 03:34 PM
How many points per game did that second best offense in the country average over, say, its last ten?

(A number picked randomly and not as an attempt to cherry pick an endpoint.)

Would you agree that it would be nice for the second best offense in the country to, say, reliably break the seventy point barrier?

You can talk about advanced metrics all you want, but I watched the games, and I consistently saw stagnancy, with little ball movement except around the perimeter, little sense of team coordination, a lot of standing around, terrible spacing, few crisp passes, few set plays, and a lot of hurried jumpers or drives into three players as the shot clock wound down.

During one sequence in the Mercer game, our players were literally running into each other.

Continuing to insist that our offense -- as it was being run, conceived, and executed over the latter half of the season was actually one of the most effective or efficient in the country is myopic to the extreme.

Wasn't allowed to spork you, but I agree. I'm still oldschool and prefer my "eye test" to statistics on many occasions. This issue is definitely one of those times.

Kedsy
03-22-2014, 03:48 PM
How many points per game did that second best offense in the country average over, say, its last ten?

(A number picked randomly and not as an attempt to cherry pick an endpoint.)

Would you agree that it would be nice for the second best offense in the country to, say, reliably break the seventy point barrier?

Not necessarily, if that offense was only getting 61.5 possessions per game (Duke's average over its last 10 games).

I will grant that our offense over the last 10 games (really, last 11) wasn't as efficient as it was in the first 25 games, but we still averaged 1.14 points per possession over those last ten games, which if it had been our season average would still place us in the top 20 nationally. And that's in our worst stretch of the season. So it's not myopic at all (much less in the extreme) to say our offense was one of the most efficient in the country. Because it was.

_Gary
03-22-2014, 03:52 PM
Kedsy, would you agree that a part of the reason our efficiency fell later in the season was because we were not running as much and settled more for half court basketball? I think that's a part of what was going on. Early in the year Jabari would rip a rebound down and initiate a fast break. But as the season progressed, we got fewer and fewer "easy" buckets. This seems to be a key, in my mind, as to our woes as the year progressed.

Wander
03-22-2014, 03:56 PM
And this season, while Duke's offense did seem to go AWOL on occasion near the end of games, overall we scored 1.2 points per possession



How many points per game did that second best offense in the country average over, say, its last ten?


1.14. Still pretty good.

Mercer scored easier against Duke than they did against Texas, Oklahoma, Seton Hall, and about 20 other teams. Our defense is bad. No need to over-complicate that.

Kedsy
03-22-2014, 03:57 PM
I'm still oldschool and prefer my "eye test" to statistics on many occasions. This issue is definitely one of those times.

There's a difference between pretty offense and efficient offense. If you score points, it really doesn't matter how you look when you score them. What matters is optimizing your possessions, which overall this season Duke did very well.

I'm a 76ers fan (well, I'm taking the year off). Back in the day, Allen Iverson used to have that ability to penetrate that you covet. But he was a terribly inefficient scorer. I'd rather have an efficient offense than watch AI put up 27 shots to get 25 points.


Kedsy, would you agree that a part of the reason our efficiency fell later in the season was because we were not running as much and settled more for half court basketball? I think that's a part of what was going on. Early in the year Jabari would rip a rebound down and initiate a fast break. But as the season progressed, we got fewer and fewer "easy" buckets. This seems to be a key, in my mind, as to our woes as the year progressed.

I don't know the answer to this. I had the impression that our possessions per game went down toward the end of the season because we were playing slow-down teams (like Clemson and Virginia), rather than because we were slowing it down. Although, also I think we did slow down a bit in the half-court due to facing a lot of zone defense (and the pack-line, which isn't a zone but creates some of the same issues). But even that latter point doesn't speak to how much or how little we tried to push the pace in transition. In the end, I haven't seen any numbers on this, so I can't say with any degree of confidence.

Saratoga2
03-22-2014, 04:09 PM
Teams that do well in the tournament play solid defense. Look at Florida, Louisville, etc. We have to find a way to improve in that area.

As far as next year, I can't believe a 6'10", 270# guy who plays physical ball inside will be able to handle more than 25 minutes a game. As a freshman he may also be foul prone. Having Marshall for 15 minutes is a perfect complement, especially if he and the team works on his offense. Amile can play a lot of power forward, and it would help him to gain some weight and strength. He certainly can improve his offense as well. Of course if Jabari is back, he then becomes the choice at PF with Amile taking a secondary role.

We are really exceptionally rich at guard. I really love what I see from Quinn at PG and with Tyus we can have an amazing duo with Rasheed almost having a PG handle, defense and slashing ability. I underestimated his outside shot, and he plays so hard. With Matt and Grayson, we should run people off the floor.

Justise is a special talent although again a freshman and will need to be worked in. Just maybe Semi will get his chance at the 3 and do well. Semi could also backup Amile at PF if Jabari does indeed go.

A lot of talent but can we play defense or do we need to reflect on how the game has changed and make adjustments?

_Gary
03-22-2014, 04:09 PM
There's a difference between pretty offense and efficient offense. If you score points, it really doesn't matter how you look when you score them. What matters is optimizing your possessions, which overall this season Duke did very well.

Just to be clear, I'm with you on the key being optimizing your possessions. I am not enamored with just "pretty" basketball. Not in the least. I'm talking about how one gets "easy" or "optimized" shots in a half court set, especially late in games. If you have a PG that can dribble penetrate, versus one that isn't comfortable attempting that and can only pass around the perimeter, I'd say the chances GREATLY favor the team that has a PG that can penetrate and either make the shot or dish for an easy bucket. To me that's basketball 101.

Kedsy
03-22-2014, 04:40 PM
Just to be clear, I'm with you on the key being optimizing your possessions. I am not enamored with just "pretty" basketball. Not in the least. I'm talking about how one gets "easy" or "optimized" shots in a half court set, especially late in games. If you have a PG that can dribble penetrate, versus one that isn't comfortable attempting that and can only pass around the perimeter, I'd say the chances GREATLY favor the team that has a PG that can penetrate and either make the shot or dish for an easy bucket. To me that's basketball 101.

And I think that's one way but not nearly the only way to do it.

I could be wrong about this, but I seem to remember you making similar arguments in 2010. But despite its lack of dribble-penetration, that team did pretty well. They found other ways to optimize their possessions.

_Gary
03-22-2014, 04:51 PM
And I think that's one way but not nearly the only way to do it.

I could be wrong about this, but I seem to remember you making similar arguments in 2010. But despite its lack of dribble-penetration, that team did pretty well. They found other ways to optimize their possessions.

They did, in large part, because Nolan was a slasher that did get to into the lane. We had a supersmart manager in Jon, and a great junior who knew how to play under control in Nolan (along with a few other key pieces to the puzzle in upperclassmen). So there were a heck of a lot of other elements involved.

BTW, I did note that you picked about the most extreme example you could of a dribble penetrating PG who wasn't what I'd want in Iverson. Talk about the consumate "ME" guy. That was him. How about I switch it up and use examples like Johnny D, Hurley, Avery, JWill, Duhon and Kyrie. Are you saying you wouldn't want those type of PGs on your team? Would you rather go with a slow, mechanical guy all the time? A guy that can pass around the perimeter but not get into the lane when necessary? Not me. That might work in a Princeston system, but not in Coach K's. Just saying. :D

_Gary
03-22-2014, 05:13 PM
Obviously, not attending Princeton, I couldn't spell it correctly. :p

buddy
03-22-2014, 08:39 PM
Next year I expect more of the same. We will have one senior (Quinn) who is not known as a lock down defender. We will rely heavily on freshmen who do not know the system, one of whom at least intends to be an one-and-done. Assuming, as I do, that Rodney and Jabari leave, our best player also will be a freshman, with negative implications for the leadership void we experienced this year. And I don't see a Laettner or Battier who will not let his teammates lose. Defense wins championships, as does experience. We won't have either.

DBFAN
03-22-2014, 10:31 PM
Ok so I don't want anyone to get me wrong on this, so jump to conclusions. I see everybody mentioning these teams that win in the tournament because of their D, while I think you are exactly right, most of these teams avg 50-60 pts a game during regular season. I for one would not be thrilled at that idea. What makes me mad about all of this is the obvious screw up by the NCAA this year. These new rules were suppose to clean up the game, and help speed it up. But yet once again the teams who play "physical" defense are the ones who keep on marching. Now obviously teams like Florida are an exception. I guess it's just frustrating to watch the NCAA speak out of both sides of their mouth. In my opinion, I think Hood an Parker were tired at the end. What else would you expect when they continually got hammered all year, because the only fouls that mattered were hand checks. Just don't understand how the NCAA wants to speed up the game but allows more physical play down low than in any other season I can remember

Kedsy
03-22-2014, 10:39 PM
How about I switch it up and use examples like Johnny D, Hurley, Avery, JWill, Duhon and Kyrie. Are you saying you wouldn't want those type of PGs on your team?

No, I'm saying there are usually ways to be successful on offense with whatever you have. There's not just one way to score. Which is good, because guys like Hurley and Kyrie, etc., don't grow on trees. You can't be guaranteed to have one.

Also, J Dawkins and J Williams were really combo guards rather than PGs. Their teams were a lot more successful when JD/JW played alongside pass-first points like Duhon and Amaker, who didn't really make a living on dribble penetration.

Finally, I think your description of our current PGs really sells them short.

uh_no
03-22-2014, 10:56 PM
While I agree that offense was generally not the problem most of the season, Duke's losses to lesser teams did tend to come when they didn't play as well on offense. And that was because there wasn't defense to fall back on.


I think this sums it up as well as anyone can. the defense was bad....and particularly woeful at times....we gave up 120+ ish in defensive efficiency in our last 6 games of the year (http://www.scacchoops.com/ACCRoster.asp?sTeam=DU)....which is abhorrent....and the numbers in the second half, and even last 10 minutes, are even worse....often times in the 140s

i thought abhorrent might be a little strong, until i looked at kenpom....grambling state put up a 121 for the year on defense, and was dead last in kenpom. we played grambling state level defense for the last 6 games of the year....so not only was the defense bad, but down the stretch, in both games and in the season, it was among the worst in the country.

thhis was masked, though, by how stupendous the offense was most of the time, and you nailed it. offensive output is going to be qutie variable...shots fall, shots don't fall....but when the offense wasn't hitting the record highs in a given game, or a given stretch during a game, we were hosed, we had no answer

the issues with the slow down offense, and the lack of pressure execution certainly made the issue that much worse, since the other team was going to score regardless, and suddenly we couldn't score. when you rely that heavily on offense as this duke team did, you're going to run into issues....


regular duke teams have had blips on offense too...heck, the 2010 championship team struggled to score down the stretch against baylor....but why did we win that game in the end? the defense could hold up its end of the deal. we couldn't depend on that this year to any degree, and that was a fatal flaw, and it has been there for day 1.

so there are two ways to fix this: don't go through stretches of non-scoring on offense, especially in slow down end game situations, or get better on the other end. While i'd love us to work on the stall ball game, and it's something we'll certainly need, I think we need to accept that all teams are going to have difficulty scoring at some point or another....we could work the O to death, but we'll still have times when the ball won't go down, and we need stops. how are we going to get those stops next year?

personally, i'm skeptical that quinn can be the answer in that regard. through 3 years he has not shown the ability to slow penetration on the perimeter, putting huge amounts of pressure on the rest of the defense. barring an improvement there, we really need the enforcers down low, and i'm hopeful that some combination of amile, mp3, and jahlil can be just that....amile needs to hit the weighs again, and marshall needs to not get hurt so he can continue to progress.

maybe quinn will make a leap and kill it next year...who knows. i hope he knows what he needs to work on.

next year is very unknown though. we don't know who of our two best players might be back next year, tyler is gone, and the freshmen are still (despite rankings) unknown entities (just ask UK how making assumptions about freshmen works out...I'm hoping that inserting tyrus and jahlil will instantly fix two of the big issues, perimeter stopping, and power at the rim...and I'm hoping that those skillsets will help alleviate the lack of communication which is bound to occur with another young

tgotdamp
03-23-2014, 01:04 AM
I think that's a very reasonable concern, and one I've thought about as well. Unless Amile shocks me and develops a game similar to Jabari or Rodney on the outside, it's going to be tough going forward. Ideally, you'd want the two forwards we've had this year working with a load like Jahlil in the paint. Not sure how that's going to play out.

I think we'll be good with Jahlil and Jefferson. I've looked at some footage on Jahlil and he's a nimble big man and has a good sense of awareness. He'll likely draw double teams in which he can either kick the ball out to the wings or drop it across to Jefferson who is proficient at the rim. I think Blue Devil nation is sleeping on Okafor. I see him as the nucleus to the offense next year. He will assume the post role of Parker and while Parker was phenomenal this year, you could tell he was accustomed to playing on the perimeter. The post is Jahlil's natural position and from what I've seen thus far, I believe he will make better decisions from within the paint as to when to look for his shot and when to swing the ball. Don't think we'll have as big of a problem on D either. When there is a true big man commanding the paint, it makes everyone lives easier. Below is a link of Parker/Okafor playing against each other. Parker was a sr. and Okafor was a soph. Even Parker was having difficulty scoring down low.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VUlvjPz3Gjs

JPtheGame
03-23-2014, 01:32 AM
I think we'll be good with Jahlil and Jefferson. I've looked at some footage on Jahlil and he's a nimble big man and has a good sense of awareness. He'll likely draw double teams in which he can either kick the ball out to the wings or drop it across to Jefferson who is proficient at the rim. I think Blue Devil nation is sleeping on Okafor. I see him as the nucleus to the offense next year. He will assume the post role of Parker and while Parker was phenomenal this year, you could tell he was accustomed to playing on the perimeter. The post is Jahlil's natural position and from what I've seen thus far, I believe he will make better decisions from within the paint as to when to look for his shot and when to swing the ball. Don't think we'll have as big of a problem on D either. When there is a true big man commanding the paint, it makes everyone lives easier. Below is a link of Parker/Okafor playing against each other. Parker was a sr. and Okafor was a soph. Even Parker was having difficulty scoring down low.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VUlvjPz3Gjs

Considering that Parker has been here for just his first year and Jahlil is coming next year, I don't see how the senior/soph thing could be true. Otherwise, I agree with this post. Another thing to consider, How much better is marshall plumlee going to get while guarding Jahlil every day in practice? I predict a huge leap for him next year and a significant role his senior year. In the short term, having a true big protect the rim at all times will help clean up that pesky penetration issue.

oldnavy
03-23-2014, 06:35 AM
It's all about the money.

Yes and this is the part that I just don't get.

Is the difference in the money that great? If you go top 5 one year or wait and go top 5 the next year, how much do you lose, or do you lose any since you may be in a better position for your second contract?

Point being that Jabari Parker and Rodney Hood are going to make millions of dollars playing basketball. Plus they both seem intelligent enough to parley their talents into a second career if they so chose and make even more money for as long as they chose to work.

If you make 20 million over 14 years are you significantly better off than if you make 10 million?? Sure you may have more "stuff" if you make 20 million, but does you quality of life take a dramatic hit making 10 million less? Well I guess that depends on the person and how they define quality of life.

So how much is enough? Well, my position is that if money is your primary motivating factor, then there will never be enough. If money is how you choose to define success in life, then you will always be trying to get to that next step, that nicer car, that nicer house, etc.... it's a fools errand. There is nothing wrong with money per se, but if you decided that your happiness will depend on your checking account balance, then hold on...

Sunday sermon is over...

freshmanjs
03-23-2014, 08:20 AM
Yes and this is the part that I just don't get.

Is the difference in the money that great? If you go top 5 one year or wait and go top 5 the next year, how much do you lose, or do you lose any since you may be in a better position for your second contract?

Point being that Jabari Parker and Rodney Hood are going to make millions of dollars playing basketball. Plus they both seem intelligent enough to parley their talents into a second career if they so chose and make even more money for as long as they chose to work.

If you make 20 million over 14 years are you significantly better off than if you make 10 million?? Sure you may have more "stuff" if you make 20 million, but does you quality of life take a dramatic hit making 10 million less? Well I guess that depends on the person and how they define quality of life.

So how much is enough? Well, my position is that if money is your primary motivating factor, then there will never be enough. If money is how you choose to define success in life, then you will always be trying to get to that next step, that nicer car, that nicer house, etc.... it's a fools errand. There is nothing wrong with money per se, but if you decided that your happiness will depend on your checking account balance, then hold on...

Sunday sermon is over...

1) in your example, the difference between 10m and 20m is massive in terms of ability to take care of others in your family and create intergenerational wealth

2) the downside of delaying a year is that you get 1 less year total in your nba career, meaning 1 less year at the end when you are earning the most

oldnavy
03-23-2014, 11:39 AM
1) in your example, the difference between 10m and 20m is massive in terms of ability to take care of others in your family and create intergenerational wealth

2) the downside of delaying a year is that you get 1 less year total in your nba career, meaning 1 less year at the end when you are earning the most

My point is that if you can't create "intergenerational" wealth with 10 million, what makes you think you'd be able to with 20 million?

If you can't parley 10 million into financial security there is a good chance you wouldn't be able to with 20 million either....

It really depends on what you do with the money you have and what you want... if you need 5 homes and 20 cars to have "wealth" then perhaps you would need 20 million verse 10 million.

It seems that the pattern is that folks with 1 million want 5 million, the folks with 5 million want 10 million, the folks with 10 million want 20 million, etc....

I would be willing to bet that anyone who cannot be satisfied with or make 10 million "work" for them aren't going to be much better off with 20 million.

This isn't worth arguing about, it is just my opinion that money doesn't equal wealth. If others believe that there is a significant difference between 10 million and 20 million dollars and that you are much better off with the extra 10 million, then fine... believe that. I don't.

papa whiskey
03-24-2014, 08:11 PM
I am looking at my 2010 Order Has Been Restored poster. I see seniors Zoubek, Thomas, Scheyer, juniors Singler and Smith, sophs Plumlee, frosh Plumlee, Kelly and Dawkins. They played as a team. Who was the blue chip one and done frosh?

SoCal

I was pointing out the fact that team DID NOT rely heavily on a blue chip Freshman.